|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-19-18||Dodgers v. Brewers +110||2-7||Win||110||20 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has a clear advantage over the Dodgers. All of the top Milwaukee bullpen pitchers are well-rested for this one, and you better believe Craig Counsell will be quick to use them in this one. There's nothing to save them for.
Ryu is certainly a good pitcher, but he has been much better at home than on the road in his career. The Brewers started slow against lefties this year, but they have been much better against left handed pitching in the last few months.
The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching, but they ranked 22nd in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Miley starts here and we'll see Josh Hader (probably the best left handed bullpen pitcher in the majors) for an extended period here as well.
The Brewers are 52-25 in their last 77 home games. I'll take the plus price here.
|10-16-18||Red Sox v. Astros -121||8-2||Loss||-121||4 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros have been great at bouncing back from adversity. Houston dropped the last game in Boston and the series is now tied at 1-1.
Dallas Keuchel starts in this one. Keuchel has been much better at home in his career than on the road. He has a career 1.15 wHIP at home and a 1.337 wHIP on the road.
Boston has struggled against lefties this year. The Red Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 18th against lefties.
The Houston Astros have the deepest bullpen in the American League. Houston's bullpen is well rested and ready for this one, and at the first sign of trouble they'll be used extensively. Boston's bullpen isn't bad, but they are clearly a couple notches below the Houston bullpen.
Nate Eovaldi has been good this year, but he has been very inconsistent in his career. This is a big spot for him against a very deep lineup.
Houston is 5-0 in their last 5 following a day off. Houston is 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss.
|10-12-18||Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5||5-6||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Dodgers/Brewers Game 1 CASH* Clayton Kershaw is an excellent pitcher. There's no denying that. The Dodgers deserve to be favored here, but this short of a price on the +1.5 line is a value on Milwaukee. Why?
The Dodgers were 14th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this year. Los Angeles was elite against right handed pitching (2nd in wOBA in the majors).
Gio Gonzalez is a really streaky pitcher, and he enters this game throwing the ball very well. Gonzales is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts for the Brewers. Gonzalez also has a career 1.89 ERA against the Dodgers.
Kershaw has a career 4.08 ERA in the postseason. This Milwaukee lineup really came on late in the season against lefties, and they finished 10th in wOBA against lefties.
The Brewers have a large advantage in the bullpen. The Dodgers have no depth in the bullpen, while the Brewers have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. With the long break between series, the Brewers won't be afraid to use their best bullpen guys right away here.
The Brewers are 11-0 in their last 11 games, and this price is too good to pass up on the +1.5 line.
Take Milwaukee +1.5.
|10-05-18||Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8||4-5||Loss||-120||16 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox CASH* I'm taking the under in this Yankees/Red Sox clash for Friday night. It's all hands on deck this time of the year. There will be no saving the best bullpen pitchers for another day. Both of these teams have elite bullpens also, so that helps us a lot in this contest.
Chris Sale has worked back from shoulder inflammation. While on the surface his results didn't look great in his last two starts, a closer look shows he was still throwing the ball well. Sale was bitten by bad batted ball luck in those games. He walked only 1 batter and struck out 15 in those games though. Sale has had a FIP of 2.88 or lower in every single start in his last 14 outings. That's tremendous stuff. The Yankees lineup has a career average of .199 against Sale.
J.A. Happ has been good against Boston. Happ has allowed the Red Sox to hit only .224 against him in his career. Happ has thrown the ball really well this season.
Fenway Park has been a good under park when the weather is cooler and the wind is blowing in. The weather calls for 53 degrees and winds blowing in at about 6 mph here. With a temperature of 60 degrees or lower and the wind blowing in, the under is hitting at 59% at Fenway since 2005.
Take the under.
|10-01-18||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7||2-5||Push||0||3 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* German Marquez and Walker Buehler both enter this crucial game in tremendous form.
Marquez hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in his last 12 starts. He has allowed 2 or fewer in 11 of those 12 starts. Marquez has a FIP of 3.33 or lower in his last 11 starts. That's amazing consistency from Marquez. Marquez has pitched at Dodger Stadium twice this year. He allowed 2 hits and 1 run total both of those games. That's 15 innings and 4 hits and two runs allowed. Marquez has allowed Dodgers hitters to bat only .200 against him in his career.
Walker Buehler has an amazing 2.76 ERA and 2.99 FIP this year. Buehler has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Buehler has a 2.12 ERA at home this year. He has a tremendous 0.85 WHIP at home as well. Rockies batters are hitting only .226 against him.
In a crucial game for both teams, both bullpens are very well rested and they will use their best guys.
Take the under.
|09-28-18||Indians v. Royals UNDER 8.5||14-6||Loss||-118||18 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals meet on Friday night. Cleveland is locked into their spot in the playoffs, while Kansas City is ready for this disappointing season to be complete.
The long-term trend to the under is very strong in the final weekend in Major League Baseball's regular season. That's a good starting point for this one.
Additionally, Kerwin Danley has been a great long-term under umpire. His strikes called rate is still higher than the average this year, and in the long run he has been a very good proven under umpire.
Another key factor here is the weather. The temperature is expected to be in the low 50's and winds of 10-12 mph are blowing straight in.
Mike Clevinger has allowed only a .181 batting average in a pretty large sample size of 105 at bats against Kansas City. Ian Kennedy has only allowed a .254 average in a large sample size of 185 at bats against Cleveland. Kennedy has much better numbers at home.
Take the under here.
|09-25-18||Tigers v. Twins UNDER 9||4-2||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* I liked this play last night with Kohl Stewart as the starter, and I like it with Moya being the opener for the Twins as well. In his last 4 innings pitched when starting he hasn't allowed a run. Moya is a proven commodity and he seems to be comfortable in this role. Kohl Stewart has thrown the ball well against the Tigers, and this is still a terrible Tigers offense.
Turnbull has shown potential in the minors, and the Twins are short-handed offensively right now.
Take the under.
|09-24-18||Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8||5-1||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Cubs are an offense that is extremely reliant on getting on base with walks. Tonight, they face a starting pitcher in Jameson Taillon who has excellent control. Taillon is walking only 2.17 batters per nine innings. Taillon has walked one batter or less in 8 of his last 13 starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, so he comes into this game in great form.
Cole Hamels has pitched really well since joining the Cubs. He has had some bad batted ball luck in his last couple starts.
Both of these lineups have been struggling of late. The Pirates rank 20th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past month. The Cubs rank an even worse 24th in wOBA in the last month.
The under is 4-0 in Taillon's last 4 starts. The under is 6-0 in the Cubs last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. An 18-0 angle.
|09-21-18||Royals v. Tigers OVER 9||4-3||Loss||-100||17 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB System Play SMASHER* Comerica Park is a park where the wind matters a lot more than most people realize. When the wind is blowing out at this park, it becomes a very tough field for pitchers. Let's take a look at the numbers.
Since 2005, with the wind blowing out at 10 mph or greater and a total of 9 or lower- the over is a whopping 54-27-5 (66.7%). With the wind blowing out at 12 mph or greater the over is an even better 34-13-3 (70.8%). The wind is forecast to be blowing out at 16-18 mph in this one. This is a strong system that I can't ignore in this situation.
Ian Kennedy and Francisco Liriano are both below average pitchers at this stage of their career. What's the primary problem for both guys? They give up a lot of hard hit fly balls that turn into home runs. That's not a good match for the conditions here.
While both of these offenses have been bad most of the year, they have actually improved a lot of late. Kansas City ranks 4th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past month. They are 25th on the season. The Tigers are 23rd in the past month. They are 27th for the season.
Both bullpens rank among the bottom ten in the majors in the last month as well, and neither of these started typically go all that deep into the game.
Take the over.
|09-19-18||Cubs +104 v. Diamondbacks||0-9||Loss||-100||21 h 45 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing some awful baseball right now. I don't see any reason to think they should be favored against the Chicago Cubs here.
Arizona is now 4-14 in their last 18 games. They don't enter this game with any confidence or momentum. The Diamondbacks are a flawed team to begin with. They have a weak bullpen that has really held them back in recent weeks.
The Cubs appear to be hitting their stride. This is the most balanced team in the National League. Cole Hamels has come over and done an amazing job since being traded from the Rangers. Hamels has allowed a grand total of 11 runs in 52 and 1/3 innings with the Cubs. His strikeout rate has gone up dramatically in recent weeks. Hamels has pitched well in big games in his career, and the Cubs need to keep winning to stay ahead in the NL Central.
The Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray. Ray has had some drastic home/road splits in his career, and they are the opposite of almost everyone in the big leagues. Ray pitches much better on the road. Ray has a career 3.21 ERA on the road and 5.05 ERA at home. So far this year, Ray has a 1.182 WHIP on the road. His WHIP at home is an unimpressive 1.509.
Both the Cubs and the DBacks are good against lefties. The Cubs have a more consistent starter though, and the much better bullpen. The Cubs bullpen has a season ERA of 3.30 (4th best in the majors). The DBacks bullpen has a 5.69 ERA in the last 30 days. The Cubs bullpen enters this game well-rested.
The DBacks are 21-43 in their last 64 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 1-5 in Ray's last 6 home starts. The Cubs are 21-10 in their last 31 vs. a left-handed starter.
Take the Cubs.
|09-18-18||Giants v. Padres UNDER 7||5-4||Loss||-100||19 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The San Francisco Giants have a brutal .256 on-base percentage in the past month. That's easily last in the majors during that time. Which team has the second worst OBP during that time? The San Diego Padres at .287.
Derek Holland has had a really nice bounce back year for the Giants this season. Holland has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts. His FIP shows he hasn't simply been lucky during that time, Holland is just throwing the ball very well. He's getting a lot more swings and misses in recent outings.
Joey Lucchesi is a quality youngster for the Padres. He has a deceptive delivery that is hard to time. The Giants have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games! They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any game in that 12 game span.
Both pitchers are backed by strong bullpens here.
Doug Eddings is the umpire behind the plate here, and he's easily the best under umpire in baseball. His strikes called percentage is first in the majors over the last five years.
Take the under.
|09-17-18||Cardinals +129 v. Braves||11-6||Win||129||19 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals start Miles Mikolas here. Mikolas has been really consistently good this year for the Cardinals. Mikolas has a great 2.99 ERA and a 3.33 FIP. He has 29 starts on the year, and has a FIP of above 5 in only five of those starts. In his last 25 starts, he has allowed two runs or less in 19 of them.
Mike Foltynewicz is a really good pitcher, and this play certainly isn't a fade on him. Foltynewicz still has some blowup games though. He occasionally has some issue with walks, and he has pitched much worse late in the season in his career. The Cardinals hitters have an impressive .395 OBP against Foltynewicz all-time.
Teams that are fighting for their playoff lives have been great underdog plays in the past years, and I see value here. The Cardinals have been great as an underdog in general this year, and the Cardinals are 20-7 in Mikolas' last 27 starts. The Cardinals are 6-1 in Mikolas' last 7 road starts. The Braves are 1-8 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. St. Louis is 6-0 in their last 6 games in Atlanta.
I know the Cardinals played on Sunday night, but that is more than factored into this line. Grab the value on the underdog.
Take the Cardinals.
|09-14-18||Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8||3-0||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Two excellent young starting pitchers are set to take the mound on Friday night in St. Louis. Both Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty have been great this year. These two met a little less than a month ago in Los Angeles. Flaherty allowed one run in six innings pitched. Buehler pitched a shutout for seven innings.
On the season, Flaherty has allowed an OBP of just .271 at home. Flaherty is elite when it comes to missing bats. His swinging strike rate is 13.2%. He's allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts.
Buehler has a 3.09 ERA and a 3.16 xFIP, so he's been great in his rookie season. Buehler has a FIP of 2.66 or lower in 3 of his last 4 starts. His lone poor start of late was at Coors Field.
Both teams badly need this win, so they'll be aggressive in using their best pitchers from the bullpen.
The under is 22-8 in the Dodgers last 30 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Flaherty's last 5 starts. The under is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings between these two teams.
Take the under.
|09-12-18||Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10||4-5||Win||100||17 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks and Rockies are playing some extremely important games in the NL West race. Colorado is first in the division, but they are only 2.5 games ahead of third place (Arizona).
Patrick Corbin has been the ace for the Diamondbacks this year. Corbin has been absolutely brilliant since the All Star break. Corbin has a 2.51 ERA since the break, and he has a ridiculously low 1.51 FIP. He's had a FIP of 2.87 or lower in every start since the break. While Coors Field is a concern here, this is a very high total.
Jon Gray continues to be due for positive regression. He has a 4.69 ERA, but a 3.71 FIP on the season. Gray faces a DBacks offense that ranks in the bottom 7 in the majors in weighted on-base average against right handed pitching.
Phil Cuzzi is a top five under umpire in the majors. He has a big strike zone and he should help both pitchers here.
The under is 9-0 in Gray's last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts at home. The under is 4-0 in Cuzzi's last 4 behind home plate. An 18-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-11-18||Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5||4-1||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants offense has been the worst in the majors in the last month by a huge margin. The Giants have a team weighted on-base average of just .240. The Padres are second worst at .288. This Giants lineup is a mess right now, and they still play in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks of any.
Mike Foltynewicz enters this one throwing the ball really well. He has allowed 1 run or less in four of his last five starts. He's had a breakout season overall this year, and there isn't any reason to expect a poor performance from him here.
Andrew Suarez has been brilliant at home this season. His WHIP is an amazing 0.995 at home. Suarez has allowed only 5 hits and 0 runs in his last 14 innings pitched at home.
The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. the NL East. A 20-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-08-18||Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5||2-4||Win||100||16 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TAKEDOWN* Kyle Freeland has been an under machine at home. The under is a whopping 24-4 in the Rockies last 28 home games when Freeland has started at Coors Field. He is a good fit for this park with his ability to induce soft contact. Freeland has allowed less than 30% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit this year according to Baseball Savant. That's in the top 9% of all pitchers.
The Dodgers do have a good offense, but they are much worse against lefties. The Dodgers rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 19th against lefties.
The Rockies rank second in the majors in wOBA against lefties, but they are 21st against righties. Walker Buehler is one of the best young pitching prospects in the majors. Buehler threw a gem in his last start at Coors Field.
Both teams know the importance of this series, and they'll use their best bullpen arms in this one. Ottavino is elite and he's well-rested for the Rockies.
The under is 35-17-2 in the Dodgers last 54 vs. a left handed starting pitcher.
Take the under.
|09-07-18||Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5||3-5||Loss||-100||18 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Patrick Corbin has been amazing this year. Corbin has been at his best since the All Star Break. Corbin has a 2.63 ERA since the break, but his FIP is an amazing 1.28. He has 6 walks and 65 strikeouts during that time. Over the course of the season, Corbin has a 15.1% swinging strike rate, which is one of the highest swinging strike rates you will ever see.
Kevin Gausman has thrown the ball well since coming to Atlanta. Gausman goes up against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 25th in the majors in OBP in the past 30 days. Over the course of the season, Arizona is 26th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. With Gausman in good form of late, I expect a quality start from him here.
Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He has what is easily the highest strikes called percentage over the last five years. He'll help both pitchers here.
The under is 4-0 in Gausman's last 4 starts. The under is 20-7-1 in the DBacks last 28 games.
Take the under.
|09-05-18||Rays -133 v. Blue Jays||3-10||Loss||-133||18 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have quietly put together a very nice season. Tampa Bay is playing their best baseball of the season of late. The Rays have gone 19-7 in their last 26 games. Tampa Bay's bullpen depth and their ability to use an "opener" instead of a normal starter has helped them immensely.
Toronto is a team I had circled as a team that might tail off late in the season. The players still on this team have reportedly not been happy at all since the trade deadline. Several of their top players were sent away at the deadline, and recently Josh Donaldson was sent to Cleveland. Toronto is left with a weak lineup and a poor bullpen.
Aaron Sanchez hasn't been good of late. Sanchez has allowed 13 runs in his last 9 and 1/3 innings pitched. Sanchez ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in exit velocity allowed this year.
Tyler Glasnow is in good form coming into this one. Glasnow has a 3.95 ERA and a 3.55 FIP. He has a swinging strike rate of 11.7%, which is excellent. The Rays bullpen ranks second in ERA in the past 30 days.
Tampa Bay is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL East. They are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Toronto is 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. A combined 21-0 angle.
Take Tampa Bay.
|09-05-18||Cardinals +114 v. Nationals||7-6||Win||114||18 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play* Miles Mikolas has gone about his business and been solid and very consistent all year long for the Cardinals. Mikolas possesses two very good qualities. First, he has control and doesn't walk many batters at all. Second, he's able to induce a bunch of soft contact. His average exit velocity is 85.3 mph per Baseball Savant, which is the in top 6% of pitchers in all of baseball. Mikolas walks only 1.46 batters per nine innings. He has allowed two runs or less in 19 of his last 25 starts.
Tanner Roark has allowed the Cardinals to have a .372 OBP in 76 at bats. He's backed by a bullpen that has been terrible in the past few weeks. Washington has the second worst bullpen FIP in the last month. The Cardinals bullpen has been middle of the road during the past month. Both bullpens have been overused of late, but the Cardinals are slightly better here.
The Nationals are almost certainly out of the playoff race, and that has to be deflating for them. The Cardinals are right in the thick of it and this one means so much to them.
The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 road games and I have to take them at this plus money price.
Take the Cardinals.
|09-03-18||Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 7||4-2||Win||100||18 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been amazing this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 15 of his 27 starts this year. He's throwing his best of the season in recent outings as well. Degrom has a FIP of 1.82 or lower in 8 of his last 9 starts, so he has been absolutely on point of late. He has gone 8 innings or more in 5 of those 9 starts, which is important since the Mets bullpen is weak.
Alex Wood is a solid lefty, and the Mets are terrible against lefties. The Mets rank dead last in the majors in weighted on-base average against lefties at a miserable .283. Wood has allowed 3 runs or less in 12 straight starts, so he has been consistently very good. Wood has a swinging strike rate at a high 10.8%, and the Mets strike out a ton against lefties.
I see both starters throwing the ball really well here. This is likely to be a game decided by a small margin in a low scoring contest.
Take the under.
|09-03-18||Cubs -124 v. Brewers||3-4||Loss||-124||12 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Cubs have Cole Hamels on the hill here. Hamels has been tremendous since being traded to the Cubs. How good has he been? Hamels has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in 39 innings pitched. It hasn't been a fluke either- Hamels has a FIP of 3.58 or lower in each of those starts, and he has a FIP of 2.26 or lower in four of those starts.
Zach Davies gets the start for the Brewers. Davies is in his first big league start back from a rotator cuff injury. Davies has a poor history against the Cubs to start with, and I like to look to go against pitchers in their first game back from the DL. Davies has allowed the Cubs lineup to have a .340 weighted on-base percentage in his career.
The Brewers bullpen was great early in the season, but they have struggled in the second half. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 5.07 ERA in the past month. The Cubs have a 2.57 ERA in the past month.
The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 6-0 in Hamels' 6 starts. The Brewers are 0-5 in Davies' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 0-5 in Davies' last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs. A combined 20-0 angle.
Take the Cubs.
|09-01-18||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7||2-3||Win||100||18 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a huge game for both teams as the NL West is up for grabs and both of these teams have a real chance at winning the division.
Both teams have their best starting pitcher going in this one as well. Patrick Corbin throws for the Diamondbacks and Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers.
Corbin has been absolutely incredible this year. He has a great 3.15 ERA, but the advanced metrics suggest he has been very unlucky as well. Corbin is 4th among all starting pitchers in baseball with a 2.39 FIP. He's also 2nd in the majors with a 2.60 xFIP. That's behind only Chris Sale and just ahead of Jacob Degrom. In his last 7 starts, Corbin has allowed only 5 walks and he has struck out 58 batters.
Clayton Kershaw has been rounding into form of late. Kershaw has gone 8 innings in two of his last three starts, and he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts. Kershaw has held the Diamondbacks hitters to a career average of .182 in a large sample size of 182 at bats.
Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 16-4 in his 20 games behind the plate this year.
The under is 7-0 in Bellino's 7 games behind the plate with the total set at 7.5 or lower. The under is 7-0 in the DBacks last 7 games. The under is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A combined 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|08-31-18||Mets v. Giants UNDER 7||0-7||Push||0||19 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Zack Wheeler has been throwing the ball really well of late. Wheeler has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last six starts. Wheeler ranks in the top 3% of all pitchers in the majors in exit velocity allowed, so he is excelling at inducing soft contact. He's up against a Giants lineup that was already without their best hitter in Buster Posey. Now they are without Andrew McCutchen after he was traded to the Yankees on Thursday. The Giants rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. San Francisco has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 9 games.
Andrew Suarez has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his last 12 starts. Suarez has allowed only a .278 on-base percentage at home this year (.366 OBP on road). This is a great pitcher's park, and he's facing a Mets offense that is second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties on the season.
Both teams have a fresh bullpen ready to go after getting the day off on Thursday.
Take the under.
|08-29-18||Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5||3-1||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants meet in a key NL West game on Wednesday night. Arizona has struggled in recent days, and the NL West is wide open for the taking. The Giants aren't completely out of the race, and we've seen big runs by them late in the season before. The Dodgers, Rockies, and DBacks are within 1.5 games of each other in the top 3 spots.
Dereck Rodriguez starts here for the Giants. He has a sparkling 0.88 WHIP at home this year in more than 50 innings. He has thrown at least 6 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last seven starts overall.
Zack Godley has been inconsistent this year, but he's been victim of some terrible batted ball luck of late. Godley has had a FIP of 3.15 or lower in nine straight starts, so I expect some positive regression in the near future. Here he is in a very pitcher-friendly park and up against the Giants without Buster Posey.
The Diamondbacks are 25th in weighted on base average against righties this year and the Giants are 27th. San Francisco is second to last in wOBA overall in the last 30 days.
Cory Blaser is behind the plate and he ranks in the top three among all umpires in strikes called percentage, and he's consistently been a very good under umpire.
The under is 4-0-1 in the DBacks last 5 road games against a right handed starter. The under is 6-0-1 in the Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. A 10-0 angle.
Take the under.
|08-28-18||Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5||1-8||Win||100||17 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Indians host the Twins here. Progressive Field is a park that can be a great hitters park with the right weather conditions. The ball carries well here when it is hot, and the wind makes a big difference here as well. The weather forecast for this one calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at gametime and winds blowing out at 10-15 mph during the game. In fact, the over is 52-34 in the last 86 games at Progressive Field with wind blowing out and a temperature of 78 degrees or warmer.
Carlos Carrasco is a rare pitcher who throws much better on the road. His all-time ERA at home is 4.44, while his road ERA is 3.10. His WHIP at home is 1.318, while on the road it is only 1.065.
Kyle Gibson is inconsistent, and his track record against Cleveland is terrible. He has a 5.25 ERA in 17 starts against the Tribe. The Indians lineup has a combined .394 weighted on base average (wOBA) against him. The Twins have hit Carrasco well also. They have a .361 wOBA against him.
With the conditions and the pitching matchup, I like the over here.
Take the over.
|08-27-18||Blue Jays -120 v. Orioles||0-7||Loss||-120||6 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays aren't good, but they aren't on the same level as the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are as awful as you'll see, and I can't imagine them having much pride to play this thing out the rest of the season. Baltimore is 20-60 in their last 80 games. They are 12-43 in their last 55 vs. a right handed starter.
David Hess starts the Orioles here. Hess has been consistently bad. He has a 5.50 ERA, but his FIP is even worse at 6.11 so if anything he has been lucky so far this season. The Orioles are 1-11 in Hess' last 12 starts.
Sam Gaviglio is nothing special, but he is better than Hess. The Blue Jays bullpen has a 4.74 ERA in the last month. The Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA in the past month by a large margin at a miserable 7.12.
Toronto is 17-5 in their last 22 against Baltimore. The Blue Jays have shown signs of playing hard of late, while the Orioles look as bad as ever.
I'll lay the short price here.
|08-26-18||White Sox -108 v. Tigers||7-2||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The White Sox start Michael Kopech, and he's a guy with a ridiculously high upside. His fastball will likely touch 99 or 100 mph here, and he has great secondary pitches as well. He's up against a Tigers team that ranks dead last in on-base percentage against right handed pitching at .295 so far this season. The Tigers have consistently been putting up 3 runs or less against righties and Kopech has elite stuff. He's backed by a White Sox bullpen that ranks third best in the majors in FIP in the past month. The Tigers bullpen ranks sixth worst in that same statistic.
Jordan Zimmermann has been trending downward in the last month or so. Zimmermann has been terrible against the White Sox in his career as well. He has a brutal 6.14 ERA in 11 starts against the White Sox in his career. Zimmermann is quite a bit worse in day games than night games as well.
Take the White Sox.
|08-25-18||Astros -1.5 v. Angels||8-3||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander here. I don't have to tell you how good Verlander is in general. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. Verlander is throwing the ball about as well as he ever has. Verlander also has some tremendous numbers against the Angels in his career. This Angels lineup has a career .163 batting average against him and that is in a fairly large sample size of 129 at bats. Verlander has thrown 15 innings against the Angels this year, and he has yet to allow a run. He has 2 walks and 20 strikeouts in those two contests.
Jaime Barria has a solid 3.41 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP are 4.58 and 4.54. He is giving up a lot of hard contact, and he has been fortunate to strand a ton of base runners.
Houston's lineup is finally healthy, and Altuve being in the lineup makes this team a totally different animal. The Astros have the deepest bullpen in baseball as well and that gives them a big advantage over the thin Angels bullpen.
Take Houston -1.5.
|08-24-18||Cardinals v. Rockies UNDER 10.5||7-5||Loss||-100||16 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* There hasn't been a better field than Coors Field for unders this year. Of course there can still be some very high scoring games here, but the posted totals have been too high on average.
The under is 20-5-1 in the Rockies last 26 home games. Senzatela starts for the Rockies and he has been surprisingly solid. He does a good job limiting big innings and staying away from hard contact.
Miles Mikolas is a very underrated guy thanks to his ability to pound the strike zone. He has a hard hit rate of only 29.7% this year according to Baseball Savant.
The Rockies and Cardinals are both much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Colorado is 22nd in the league in weighted on base average against righties and the Cardinals are 17th. The Rockies are 3rd and the Cardinals 8th against lefties.
This game means a lot to both teams, and both bullpens are well rested coming into this one.
The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 overall. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5. The under is 4-0 in Senzatela's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs a right handed starter. A 21-0 angle.
Take the under.
|08-23-18||A's v. Twins OVER 9.5||4-6||Win||105||16 h 29 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Cahill has been dominant at home this year, but he isn't very good on the road. Cahill had a terrible 1.97 WHIP on the road last year. It is still a very high 1.47 this year on the road. At home, Cahill has a 0.84 WHIP in his last 13 starts. He'll be on the road against a pretty talented Twins lineup that has been hitting the ball well of late. The Twins have some youngsters seeing the ball well.
Kohl Stewart starts here for the Twins, and I don't like what I've seen from him thus far. It's only been two short starts in the majors, but he is having serious trouble. Most concerning is both of those starts are against the Tigers, who have been the worst offense in baseball in the past month. Stewart had a mediocre ERA and FIP in Triple A this year, and he wasn't generating many swings and misses there. He's up against an Oakland offense that is easily first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road this season.
The over is 9-1 in Cahill's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 between these two teams. A 13-1 angle. Take the over.
|08-23-18||Giants v. Mets UNDER 6.5||3-1||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
*4 MLB Early Bird Special* I don't like taking unders this low very often, but I see a bunch of reasons for this game to be very low scoring.
Madison Bumgarner has been pitching better in his last few outings. He gave up several against a Reds offense that excels against lefties in his last outing. He'll face a Mets lineup that is last in weighted on base average against lefties in all of baseball this year. Bumgarner has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 29 innings pitched at Citi Field. The Giants bullpen has been very solid in recent weeks, and they are well rested coming into this one.
Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been much better at home and in day games. Degrom has a career 1.99 ERA in day games. He has a career 2.18 ERA at home. He has allowed 1 run or 0 runs in 14 of his 25 starts this year. He has only allowed more than 3 once. Degrom has been pitching deep into games consistently as well.
The under is 15-5-1 in Degrom's last 21.
The wind is blowing in here and it is an early game. Early get away day games are good under leans to start with, and with the wind blowing in it is even more the case.
Take the under.
|08-23-18||Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 7||2-0||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Look for both Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer to come out and throw the ball really well here. It's not a very hot day in Washington DC for this one, and the wind is blowing in at 10-12 mph from center field. Eric Cooper is behind the plate, and he's a bit of an under umpire as well.
Scherzer has been as good as ever lately. He has a FIP of 1.32 or lower in four of his last six starts. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last five starts combined. Scherzer has been pitching very deep into games, and that's key here since the Nats bullpen has been struggling.
Nola gets a high swinging strike rate of 13.1%. He also excels at inducing soft contact. Nola has only allowed 3.8% of batted balls to be barreled so far this year (that ranks in the top 3% of pitchers in the majors). Fangraphs shows Nola to have allowed a hard hit ball on less than 25% of batted balls, which is extremely good.
Take the under.
|08-22-18||Cubs v. Tigers +1.5||8-2||Loss||-100||18 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Detroit Tigers +1.5* The Chicago Cubs offense has gone into a terrible tailspin of late. The Cubs have dropped from 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties to 10th in the last two weeks.
The Tigers are miserable on offense against right handed pitching, but they are middle of the pack in the majors against lefties.
Jon Lester starts here for the Cubs, and while he is coming off a good start, I'm not convinced he has fixed his problems. In 7 of his last 9 starts, Lester has a FIP of 5.22 or worse. Lester's season stats show some very ugly trends from past seasons. He hadn't allowed more than 29.5% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit in any full season in his career until this year. This year it currently sits at 34%. He is giving up more hard hits and more home runs. Lester has a 3.72 ERA, but a 4.83 FIP (he has been fortunate this year).
Francisco Liriano isn't a guy to trust very much, but the Cubs offense has been bad of late. They might break out of their slump here, but at this price- I have to take a chance.
If you had been taking the +1.5 line against the Cubs in their last 10 games you would be 9-1.
Take Detroit +1.5.
|08-22-18||Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5||10-7||Loss||-119||15 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have Charlie Morton on the mound here. Morton has been great all year. He combines something many pitchers aren't able to- the ability to have swing and miss stuff and still induce soft contact.
Marco Gonzales has had a breakout year for the Mariners. He likes pitching in this pitcher-friendly ballpark, and Gonzales has done a much better job minimizing walks this year.
Both starters should be helped by Bill Miller, who is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller grades as the second best under umpire in my umpire database over the last 5 seasons. His strikes called percentage is consistently high from year to year.
This is a get away day game and that could mean a key bat or two is missing. Both of these teams have a deep bullpen, and the relievers available on Wednesday are solid.
The under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 starts. The under is 5-1 in Morton's last 6 starts vs. Seattle.
Take the under.
|08-21-18||Angels v. Diamondbacks -1.5||4-5||Loss||-100||20 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Los Angeles Angels are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are always bad against lefties, but without Mike Trout in the lineup they are awful against the lefties. They'll face an elite lefty in Patrick Corbin in this one.
Corbin's numbers are spectacular this year. He has a 3.18 ERA, and he's had some really poor luck or it would be even better. Corbin has a 2.41 FIP and a 2.64 xFIP. Corbin's slider is one of the best pitches in baseball. He has a ridiculous 15.0% swinging strike rate this year. He has a great 37.0% O-Swing rate on the year. He's getting batters to go after some pitches way out of the zone.
Pena starts for the Angels and he's no better than mediocre. Pena has allowed 42.4% of batted balls to be hard hit, which is much higher than the league average. He allows an exit velocity of 89.0 (vs. MLB average of 87.3 mph), so he isn't fooling many people this year.
The Diamondbacks have a lot to play for, while the Angels are just playing out the string in this season of disappointment thanks in large part due to injuries.
Take Arizona -1.5.
|08-20-18||Astros -1.5 v. Mariners||4-7||Loss||-108||20 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Houston -1.5* The Houston Astros were swept at home in a 4 game series by the Seattle Mariners in the series ending August 12. The Astros finally broke out offensively yesterday in beating the A's to get back in the lead in the AL West. You have to think they want to get some revenge on Seattle for that 4 game sweep in Houston last weekend.
Gerrit Cole has been so good for the Astros. Cole hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any game all season. He has been at the top of his game lately. His FIP has been 2.46 or lower in 7 straight games! Even the games he gave up a few runs in, it has been due to bad batted ball luck or not stranding runners on base. Cole has 2 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts.
The Mariners lineup has a low weighted on base average of just .266 against Cole in his career.
Felix Hernandez has allowed 22 runs in his last 19 and 1/3 innings pitched. Hernandez has a low swinging strike rate of 8.4%. In contrast, Cole has a tremendous 13.8% swinging strike rate.
The Astros are healthier than they were for the last series with the Mariners. Houston has the best bullpen ERA and FIP this year, so they have a clear edge there as well.
Take Houston -1.5.
|08-19-18||Brewers v. Cardinals -116||2-1||Loss||-116||10 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing some great baseball of late. The Cardinals got a big boost from getting rid of Mike Matheny. It's been a breath of fresh air with Mike Shildt as the manager.
Matt Carpenter has been the hottest hitter in baseball, and this Cardinals lineup is much deeper than the average lineup in the National League. The young guys like Bader and DeJong have been coming up with a lot of big hits recently.
Chacin starts for the Brewers, and he has a 6.90 ERA in his career against the Cardinals. Chacin has historically been much worse in day game starts than night starts. The Cardinals have a career .432 OBP against him.
John Gant has been throwing the ball well of late. In 5 of his last 7 starts, he's allowed 2 runs or less. His FIP has been below 2 in two consecutive starts in his last two outings.
The Brewers are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Milwaukee. A 24-1 angle.
Take the Cardinals.
|08-18-18||Brewers v. Cardinals -133||2-7||Win||100||18 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have Miles Mikolas on the mound for this one. Mikolas is a guy I'm pretty high on. He has been really consistent this year, and his ability to avoid walks have helped him stay away from the big inning for the most part. Mikolas allows a 29.7% hard hit rate according to Baseball Savant, which is much lower than the average in the majors. His average exit velocity is low also at 85.3 mph. Mikolas throws strikes and he induces soft contact.
Wade Miley is a guy I'm low on. Miley doesn't miss bats, and he walks quite a few guys. In fact, he has 19 walks and 22 strikeouts on the year. Last game his line looked good on runs allowed, but he had good batted ball luck, and stranded quite a few runners on base. He struck out zero batters in six innings of work last time out.
St. Louis is 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals have a deep lineup against lefties, and Carpenter is the hottest hitter in baseball.
The Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 home starts. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on four days of rest. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.
Take St. Louis.
|08-17-18||Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5||9-4||Loss||-100||21 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Robbie Ray is much better on the road than at home. Ray has a 5.27 home ERA in his career. He has a 3.19 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is a staggering 1.543. His WHIP on the road is only 1.203. In 4 starts in San Diego, Ray has a 2.88 ERA.
The Padres have what might be the worst offense in baseball right now. San Diego was just shut down by Clay Buchholz last night. Buchholz threw a complete game, which means Arizona's top bullpen guys are all available for this game.
Joey Lucchesi starts for San Diego here. He has a 2.66 FIP or lower in 4 of his last 5 starts. Lucchesi has deceptive stuff, and he's backed by a deep bullpen. In fact, the Padres have a 2.88 ERA in the past 30 days. They have a 2.82 FIP which is easily the best in baseball during that time.
Take the under.
|08-15-18||Pirates v. Twins UNDER 8.5||4-6||Loss||-115||9 h 29 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home in the last couple years. Berrios had a WHIP of 0.95 at home last year. He has a 0.919 WHIP this year. His strikeout/walk ratio is 5.06 at home this season. He's capable of dominating at home, and the Pirates offense is mediocre.
Chris Archer goes against a Twins lineup that is much weaker than they were before the trade deadline. Archer has a 13.3% swinging strike rate so far this year, so he can definitely miss bats.
This is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two missing here.
Doug Eddings is the single best under umpire in the majors. Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors for three consecutive years.
The under is a whopping 48-23 in his last 71 games behind home plate with a start time of 4 pm EST or earlier (typically get away day games).
Take the under here.
|08-14-18||Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Rangers||6-4||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been one of the top ten starting pitchers in baseball this year. He has a solid 3.15 ERA, but a FIP of 2.46 which tells me he has been rather unlucky this season. Corbin has had great consistency. He has had a FIP of 3.99 or lower in each of his last 12 starts. That's almost unheard of. Corbin has 0 walks and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. He has a 14.9% swinging strikes rate, which is second only to Chris Sale.
Yovani Gallardo has a terrible 5.5% swinging strike rate this year. Gallardo has 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in his last four starts. It's hard to sustain success with those kind of numbers. The Rangers bullpen is also not what it once was before the trade deadline when management traded away a couple of their top guys.
The Rangers are 9-22 in their last 31 vs. a team with a winning record. A big pitching mismatch and the DBacks have a lot more to play for here.
Take Arizona -1.5.
|08-13-18||Nationals v. Cardinals -128||Top||6-7||Win||100||18 h 34 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Game of the MONTH* The Washington Nationals lost late Sunday night in the most heartbreaking fashion. Washington led the whole way and was up 3-0 before giving up a grand slam with two outs and two strikes to lose to the Cubs. They traveled late night Sunday night and are at a rest disadvantage here.
Washington's bullpen is really thin right now as they deal with some major injury issues. Tim Milone isn't a starter I'd want to rely on when they need a guy to go deep into a game to save the bullpen. Milone was torched last game, and the Cardinals have been hitting lefties very well of late. They have the 4th highest hard hit percentage against lefties in the majors this year. Milone is a guy who has pitched pretty well in Triple A in the past, but he has never consistently been able to get good big league hitters out. He pitched well against the Marlins and Mets in his first two starts this year, but those are terrible offenses. He was crushed by Atlanta last time out.
Miles Mikolas has been rock solid all year. In his last 21 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of them. Mikolas does a great job minimizing walks (just 1.56 per nine innings) and he limits hard contact very well. Opponents average an exit velocity against Mikolas of just 85.1 mph, which is among the top five percent of pitchers in the big leagues.
This was a spot I liked for St. Louis before the Nationals crushing defeat on Sunday night, now I like it even more.
The Cardinals have a healthy bullpen and are playing great baseball since getting rid of former manager Mike Matheny.
The Cardinals are 6-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts. The Nationals are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Take St. Louis.
MLB Game of the MONTH
|08-12-18||Nationals -140 v. Cubs||3-4||Loss||-140||17 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals aren't going to be this short of a price with Max Scherzer very often at all. Washington is 51-21 in Scherzer's last 72 starts. Scherzer has the highest swinging strike rate of his career this year. He also has the highest percentage of soft contact on batted balls. The Cubs are a good offense, but they are without Kris Bryant right now.
Cole Hamels has been mediocre this year. He's been good in his two starts with the Cubs, but this is the first good lineup he has had to face.
Alan Porter is behind home plate and he has been one of the biggest "road" umpires in the majors in his time behind the plate.
Washington needs wins badly right now, and having a big pitching advantage and a lower lay than normal for Scherzer makes them a play for me.
|08-12-18||Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9||2-4||Win||105||10 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have been just awful offensively in the past month or so. In fact, since July 10 this Tigers team has only scored more than 5 runs on three occasions! They have a brutal .244 OBP in the last 30 days. The second worst team OBP during that period is the Marlins at .269. Detroit has been embarrassing on offense.
Kohl Stewart is a hard thrower who has some potential, and he gets a very favorable matchup in his debut here.
The Tigers start Matt Boyd, and he's been solid this year. Boyd has pitched really well against the Twins in the past as well. In 103 at bats, they have a .214 average against him. Boyd has improved a lot in the past year, and the Tigers bullpen has been surprisingly strong in the past month.
The Twins offense is much weaker since the trade deadline. The Tigers offense is dreadful. It's too high of a total here.
The under is 6-0 in the Tigers last 6 vs a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games vs a lefty. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two. A 14-0 angle.
Take the under.
|08-11-18||Mariners v. Astros -1.5||3-2||Loss||-100||16 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* Wade LeBlanc is a different pitcher at home. LeBlanc has fit in nicely in Seattle, but on the road he is vulnerable. LeBlanc has a WHIP of 1.04 at home in the last two seasons, but his WHIP jumps all the way to 1.31 on the road.
Houston has dropped the first two games in this series. While this Astros team is still banged up, they are still a very good team and are clearly better than Seattle even in their current state.
Houston has a lineup full of guys who have crushed Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc has allowed Astros hitters to have a ridiculous .576 weighted on base average in 60 at bats. He has a 6.84 ERA in his career against Houston. The Astros are third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this year.
Charlie Morton pairs a great ability to miss bats with an ability to induce soft contact. Morton has a 12.8% swinging strike rate this year, and he is averaging 96 mph on his fastball. The Mariners are better against lefties, and have struggled against right handed pitching of late.
Houston gets back on track here.
Take Houston -1.5.
|08-10-18||A's -109 v. Angels||3-4||Loss||-109||9 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oakland* The Oakland Athletics are playing great baseball. Oakland has a lot to play for now, and the Los Angeles Angels are well out of contention.
The Angels rank 27th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They have struggled all year long with lefties. Now, Mike Trout is questionable for this game with an injury. If they are without Trout, they are particularly weak against lefties.
The Oakland Athletics are first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They are also 7th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's bullpen is crucial to their success as well. Oakland's bullpen has a FIP of 3.41 in the last 30 days compared to the Angels bullpen's FIP of 4.42. A big edge to Oakland.
Brett Anderson is a decent lefty for the A's. Pena is a mediocre pitcher, and the A's have been on a roll of late. Oakland is 37-16 in their last 53 games. The Angels are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. a left handed starter.
|08-10-18||Mariners v. Astros UNDER 7.5||5-2||Win||100||16 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous this year. While his recent results don't look quite as dominant, a closer look shows he is still throwing the ball really well. Cole has a FIP of 2.44 or lower in each of his last five starts. He has been hurt by some tough batted ball luck and a low strand rate. He's still racking up huge strikeout numbers and doing a good job minimizing hard contact.
Mike Leake has produced a quality start in 11 of his last 14 starts. Leake has no walks in his last three starts combined. Leake is backed by a quality bullpen on the Mariners side. The Astros bullpen is arguably the best in baseball.
Houston is without Altuve and Springer right now, and that certainly holds their offense back.
Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He has the highest strikes called rate of any umpire in three straight seasons.
Take the under.
|08-09-18||Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5||8-5||Loss||-105||17 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies both come into this game struggling of late on offense. The Dodgers have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. The Rockies have scored 3 runs or less in six of their last eight games.
The Rockies are an elite offense against left handed pitching. In fact, Colorado is second in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Rockies aren't very good against right handed pitching though. They are 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. They face a good right hander in Ross Stripling here.
The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching. They are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Dodgers are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.
Tyler Anderson has an impressive 3.48 ERA and 1.263 WHIP at Coors Field in his career. Ross Stripling has a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings at Coors Field. Both of these guys are solid pitchers.
The under is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in Anderson's last 5 home starts.
Take the under.
|08-08-18||Red Sox -130 v. Blue Jays||10-5||Win||100||16 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Boston Red Sox ML* The Boston Red Sox are setting an amazing pace this year. Boston came back in stunning fashion and beat the Blue Jays last night. The Red Sox took advantage of a terrible Toronto bullpen in winning in extra innings.
Toronto is a team I think is in a bad spot mentally. The Blue Jays expected to be better this year. They haven't been good. That meant Toronto had a big sale at the trade deadline and got rid of key pieces. J.A. Happ was traded. Several key guys in the bullpen were traded. Steve Pearce was traded. Toronto's players were openly upset after the trade deadline. Now, they are coming off a tough loss and I'm not sure what kind of effort we'll get here.
Brian Johnson has been underrated. He has a 2.57 ERA in 7 starts for Boston. Mike Hauschild had underwhelming numbers at Triple A both last year and this year. He's up against a great offense that will get Devers back for this game.
The Red Sox have a massive advantage in the bullpen. Toronto has the worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the last 3 weeks, and that bullpen has zero confidence now.
This price is far cheaper than I expected to get on Boston. They are 10-2 in Johnson's last 12 starts. Toronto is only 4-17 in their last 21 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher.
Take the Red Sox.
|08-08-18||Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5||0-6||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Phillies rank in the bottom ten in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom 6 in the league in wOBA against right handed pitching.
Patrick Corbin has a 3.31 ERA on the year, and he has actually been very unlucky. Corbin has a FIP of only 2.55 on the season. Corbin had a solid swinging strike rate of 11.0% last year, but it has jumped to a really impressive 14.7% this year. His slider has been tremendous this season. Corbin is up against a Phillies lineup that strikes out a bunch.
Vincent Velasquez came back from injury on July 11. Since then, Velasquez has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 25 and 1/3 innings. His hard hit percentage is way down this year, so he is inducing more soft contact. Only 5.7% of batted balls against him have been barreled.
The under is 6-0 in Velasquez's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Arizona. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle.
Take the under.
|08-07-18||Cubs v. Royals UNDER 9.5||5-0||Win||100||20 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Brad Keller has pitched pretty well for the Royals this year. Keller has a good sinking fastball which has helped him keep the ball in the park thus far. As long as he has his command, he should continue to be good at suppressing home runs. Keller has done an excellent job avoiding hard contact. Only 10 out of 222 batted balls have been barreled according to Baseball Savant. That puts Keller in the top 4% of pitchers in baseball. He's doing a great job forcing soft contact.
Mike Montgomery is an underrated starter who does enough to help his team win. The Cubs bullpen is strong and many of their best guys should be available on Tuesday.
Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and he is clearly the biggest under umpire in baseball. He's had the highest percentage of strikes called of any umpire for three straight seasons. He's a big help to both pitchers here.
Take the under.
|08-07-18||Padres v. Brewers -1.5||11-5||Loss||-100||17 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers start Chase Anderson in this one. Anderson has been very good of late. Anderson has allowed 2 runs or less in eight straight starts. He excels at inducing soft contact, and Anderson is in great form right now.
San Diego ranks last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, and it isn't very close. The Padres are without Wil Myers right now, and he is one of their most reliable hitters.
Milwaukee ranks 19th in wOBA against lefties, but they have a poor batting average on balls in play (4th lowest) despite having the third highest hard hit percentage against lefties. Clayton Richard isn't a normal lefty, he's much worse. Richard has been in terrible form of late. He's walked 23 batters in his last 30 innings. He's allowed at least a hit per inning in his last 7 starts.
Richard is able to cover up his issues when pitching at home in a pitcher friendly park, but on the road he has an ERA above 6. His hard hit allowed percentage had never been above 35% in his career, but it is 40.4% this year. He's nearing the end of his career, and he's struggling right now.
Take Milwaukee -1.5.
|08-06-18||Cubs v. Royals OVER 9||3-1||Loss||-110||17 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Royals start Jakob Junis in this one. They host the Chicago Cubs in an interleague battle. The Cubs are one the rare NL teams who have plenty of depth to add a hitter and still be strong from top to bottom in the lineup.
Junis has had problems with the home run ball this year. He is giving up a whopping 2.02 homers per nine innings. Junis isn't pitching well of late. He's allowed 5 runs or more in less than 6 innings pitched in 5 of his last 8 starts.
Cole Hamels isn't the pitcher he used to be. Hamels has a home run problem as well, and he is very inconsistent.
The weather here is calling for a temperature of 92 degrees at gametime and winds blowing out at 10 mph. These are perfect conditions for an over.
The Royals bullpen is arguably the worst in the majors and Junis doesn't usually pitch deep in the game. The Cubs could put up a big number here.
Take the over.
|08-05-18||Giants +165 v. Diamondbacks||3-2||Win||165||14 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB BIG Underdog SHOCKER* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray here. Ray has a home ERA of 5.31 in his career. His road ERA is 3.18. His WHIP at home in his career is 1.531. You'll almost never see a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.531 laying this kind of price.
While I'm not particularly high on the Giants overall, they are a .500 team. This isn't the Baltimore Orioles that Ray and the Diamondbacks are up against. Derek Holland is an inconsistent starter, but he's been one of the Giants best starters so far this year. In the past month, the Giants bullpen has been significantly better than the Diamondbacks bullpen, which has been one of the worst in the majors.
How has Ray done at home as a favorite? The DBacks are 11-16 in his 27 games started as a home favorite of -125 or higher. That's an ROI of -35.6%. Ray has been burning money at home, especially as a favorite.
The Giants sat out Posey and Pence on Saturday, and they are expected back in the lineup here.
This is worth it as a solid price grab value selection.
Take San Francisco.
|08-05-18||Royals v. Twins UNDER 9||5-6||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller has been one of the best under umpires in baseball for many years. Miller has an all-time under rate of 55.4% and he's always at or near the top of the strikeouts/walk ratio leaderboard and the overall percentage of strikes called. Miller is a big under umpire. Sunday is a get away day and there are more unders on Sunday in MLB in general. The under is a whopping 43-15-1 in Miller's last 59 Sunday games.
Danny Duffy has been coming around of late. Duffy has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 13 starts. He's gone 6 innings or more in 10 of those 13 starts. Duffy also has a spectacular 2.21 ERA in 102 innings against the Twins. Duffy has an even better 1.79 ERA at Target Field.
Ervin Santana starts for the Twins here, and he has a brilliant 2.78 ERA in 11 career starts with Bill Miller behind home plate.
The Twins rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Royals rank in the bottom three in wOBA against right handed pitching.
Take the under.
|08-05-18||Braves -119 v. Mets||5-4||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Atlanta Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves were shutout by Zack Wheeler on Saturday night. Wheeler has a high upside and he pitched extremely well in that one. Corey Oswalt isn't even close to his same level. Oswalt has a 6.02 ERA and a 5.39 FIP at Triple A this year. He has a 5.27 ERA and 5.26 FIP in the big leagues. Oswalt has a swinging strike rate of only 7.3%. His stuff isn't good enough to fool hitters consistently enough.
Julio Teheran loves pitching at Citi Field and against the Mets in general. The Mets lineup has a terrible .148 batting average in 128 at bats against Teheran. Teheran's ERA at Citi Field is 2.14. In his last five starts at Citi Field, Teheran has allowed only 3 runs total.
The Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 after winning their last game. The Braves have been good at bouncing back all year long.
It's rate that you get to lay this short of a price to fade the Mets, especially with a quality opponent.
|08-04-18||Astros v. Dodgers -116||14-0||Loss||-116||18 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* Lance McCullers Jr. is tremendous at home, but on the road his numbers are much worse. In his career, McCullers Jr. has a 2.66 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP at home. He has a 4.89 ERA and a 1.446 WHIP on the road. He also has a 3.32 ERA in the first half of the season and a 4.78 ERA in the second half of the season.
The Dodgers rank first in the majors in walk percentage, and McCullers has been wild of late. He has 10 walks in his last 13 and 2/3 innings pitched.
The Astros lineup isn't nearly as good without Altuve and Correa. The Dodgers have a clear lineup edge now- and this lineup got much better with their deadline deals.
Maeda has pitched into bad luck of late, and he's thrown the ball very well on the whole this year.
Take the Dodgers.
|08-04-18||Braves -117 v. Mets||0-3||Loss||-117||16 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Kevin Gausman here. Gausman has had an up and down career in Baltimore. He had to face the best lineups in the majors on a consistent basis being in the AL East. He also had to pitch for a terrible team. He now goes to the National League and faces a bad Mets lineup. He's on a Braves team that is in contention.
Zack Wheeler has been pretty good overall, but the Mets bullpen ranks in the bottom three in the majors in the last month. Wheeler has been much better on the road in his career. The Braves hitters have an OBP over .500 in a small sample against Wheeler.
The Braves young lineup and improved bullpen give them substantial edges in those two spots.
Atlanta is 5-0 in their last 5 in New York against the Mets. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the NL East. A 14-0 angle.
|08-02-18||Yankees +110 v. Red Sox||7-15||Loss||-100||15 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB DOG of the Day* The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching, and it isn't even close. The Yankees are at .358 (2nd is .345). The Red Sox sit 16th in wOBA against lefties at .318. New York is first in ISO against lefties as well, so their power against lefties is tremendous.
C.C. Sabathia ranks in the top 2% of exit velocity allowed. He's reinvented himself into a guy who allows weak contact and that allows him to outperform most advanced metrics. Sabathia has had great success against the Red Sox of late. The Yankees are 6-1 in Sabathia's last 7 starts vs. the Red Sox.
Brian Johnson isn't a bad pitcher, but he's had quite a few favorable matchups. He now has to face the best offense against lefties in the bigs. Johnson usually only pitches 5 innings or so, and the Red Sox middle relief is questionable.
The Yankees also have an edge in the bullpen. While Aaron Judge is out here- Boegarts is likely to miss this game for the Red Sox.
Take the Yankees.
|07-31-18||Angels v. Rays UNDER 7.5||6-10||Loss||-110||6 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Angels traded away Ian Kinsler and Martin Maldonado already. This lineup wasn't particularly deep to start with, and now they are even less so. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, but the lineup around him isn't very good. Stanek starts here for the Rays, and he has been superb. He obviously won't be in the game long, but Yarbrough is expected to come in after him and he's a solid lefty. The Angels rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.
Tyler Skaggs has been tremendous this year for the Angels. Skaggs has allowed 2 runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts this year. Skaggs had a swinging strike rate of only 8.1% last year, but it has jumped to 11.4% this year.
The Stanek-Yarbrough combination the Rays have used consistently has been very good for the under. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games with these two being used back to back. The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 during game one of a series. A 15-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-30-18||Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5||9-5||Win||100||20 h 41 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* Robbie Ray is a really inconsistent pitcher. He's very capable of firing a great game and shutting a team down, but he's also very capable of getting shelled. More often than not he's been hit hard at home. The over is 24-7-1 in his last 32 starts at home. It's very common to see a pitcher with an ERA much better at home than on the road, but Ray is the opposite in a big way. Ray has a 3.18 career ERA on the road. His career home ERA is 5.28. His ERA is nearly a full run worse in the second half of the season as well.
Martin Perez has a 7.08 ERA and a 6.36 FIP on the season. Perez is a below average lefty, and the DBacks have been very good against lefties all year (they are bad against righties). The Rangers bullpen has been used heavily of late.
The Rangers and Dbacks both rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Both of these bullpens rank among the five worst in the majors in the last month.
I think there is blowup potential with both of these starters and I'll take the over at this relatively low number.
Take the over.
|07-29-18||Dodgers -120 v. Braves||1-4||Loss||-120||13 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Sunday SMASHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the first three games of this series. They go for the four game sweep on the road on Sunday. The Braves have taken on some early money here because of the "avoid the sweep" plays being entered. Not that those can't be considered at all, but I think those are extremely overstated. I don't subscribe to the theory that the team who has won will just lay down in the final game of the series.
In this particular game, I like the pitching matchup for the Dodgers. Ross Stripling has had amazing control this year. He is averaging only 1.26 walks per nine innings. He has a grand total of 3 walks allowed in his last nine starts. That's pinpoint control to say the least. Stripling also has an impressive 11.0% swinging strike rate. He has allowed a few more runs of late, but that's mostly due to poor batted ball luck. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of .316 or higher in 5 of his last 6 games.
Sean Newcomb has been struggling badly with his command. In his career, he has been much worse in the second half of the season, and his worst time is the heat of the summer. In July and August (15 career starts) he has a WHIP of 1.801. That's about as bad as you'll see. The Dodgers have hit him hard in the past.
The Dodgers bullpen has been much better of late, and they have a clear edge over the Braves there.
The Braves are 1-7 in Newcomb's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Stripling's last 4 starts.
Take the Dodgers.
|07-28-18||Cubs v. Cardinals -106||2-6||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Cubs start Jose Quintana here. Quintana has been pretty fortunate this year. He has a 3.87 ERA and a 4.56 FIP. His batting average on balls in play allowed is .277 and he has a high 77.4% strand rate as well. Quintana has been much more wild this year than normal. Quintana has 14 straight starts where he has allowed at least 2 walks. His strikeout rate is down as well. The Cardinals lineup overall has a .372 weighted on base average against Quintana. Quintana has a much worse ERA in day games in his career (4.06) than night games (3.24).
Miles Mikolas has a terrific 2.83 ERA in day games in his career vs. a 4.30 ERA in night games. Mikolas has done a great job pounding the strike zone this year. The Cubs lineup is very good, but he's pitched well against them in his two outings. Being without Kris Bryant is clearly a big hit for the Cubs.
The more consistent pitcher and a team who desperately needs wins right now at home at a value price.
Take St. Louis.
|07-27-18||A's v. Rockies -113||1-3||Win||100||17 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* It's not easy to go against the red hot Oakland Athletics right now, but I'm go to go against them in this one. Colorado had the day off on Thursday night and that helped the Rockies bullpen get rested up.
Oakland is coming off a series that they swept at Texas, but that series took a lot out of them. The A's used a bunch of relievers and made some big comebacks in that series. Blake Treinen has been amazing this year for them, but he has pitched three days in a row, and he may not be available in this game. Trivino has been their second best reliever and he has pitched two days in a row (20 pitches on Thursday).
The Rockies are excellent against lefties. Colorado ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Sean Manaea has been good this year, but his batting average on balls in play allowed is just .221. That has to regress toward the mean sooner or later. Manaea actually gives up a lot of hard contact, and that isn't a good recipe for success at Coors Field.
Kyle Freeland continues to be underrated. Freeland's ability to keep the ball down and induce weak contact is working extremely well at Coors Field. Freeland has a tremendous 1.184 WHIP at Coors Field this year. Freeland is in the top five percent of pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity allowed.
The Rockies are 16-5 in their last 21 games. They are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a lefty.
|07-26-18||A's v. Rangers OVER 11||7-6||Win||100||16 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers pitching staff is struggling in a big way, and that is putting it nicely. Texas has allowed 13 runs or more in 3 of their last 6 games. The Rangers bullpen is stretched to the limit right now. The starters have been so bad that the entire bullpen is gassed.
Bartolo Colon has been in very poor form of late. Colon has allowed 7 hits or more in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has gone 5 innings or less in 5 of his last 9 starts. Colon is giving up more hard contact this year than he has in any other season in his career. He has a home run problem, especially at home, and the Athletics lineup is extremely powerful.
Oakland ranks first in weighted on base average on the road and ISO on the road. The A's start Trevor Cahill in this one and while he has been lights out at a home, he has been very hittable on the road. Cahill has a 5.92 ERA on the road this season. His road ERA last year was 7.07.
The temperature at game time here is expected to be 101 degrees. In the Ballpark at Arlington- the over is 34-22 in the last 56 with an average temperature of 96 degrees or higher in the game (this one should fit).
Take the over.
|07-25-18||Astros -121 v. Rockies||2-3||Loss||-121||17 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Astros ML* Jon Gray is certainly capable of being very good, but he's struggled to come up with clutch pitches with runners in scoring position, and he faces an excellent lineup here. The Astros rank first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road so far this year.
Houston is 35-15 in their first 50 road games this season. The Astros have arguably the best and deepest bullpen in baseball. They are up against a Rockies team that has a thin bullpen that has been crushed when pitching at home.
Charlie Morton has great stuff and he's a high strikeout guy. The Rockies have lots of guys who strikeout a bunch, and this is a tricky matchup for them.
The early money has pushed this one down. I'll side with the team with the better lineup and much better bullpen. Houston is 27-11 in their last 38 interleague road games. They are also 54-26 in their last 80 vs. a right handed starter.
|07-24-18||Astros v. Rockies UNDER 10||8-2||Push||0||17 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have been great against lefties this year, but they aren't good against right handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has been an elite right hander this year. His swinging strike rate is above 14%, which is tremendous. Cole has allowed 1 run or less in 10 of his 20 starts this year. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a game all season.
Houston's bullpen is first in the majors in FIP and SIERA. This is a deep bullpen that comes into this series well rested.
Tyler Anderson has been spectacular for the Rockies. Anderson is a great combination of a high swinging strike rate and an ability to induce soft contact. In his career, he has a very good 3.58 ERA at Coors Field. Anderson has a 4.32 ERA in the first half of the season in his career, and a much better 3.20 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been locked in of late.
The under is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 interleague road games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts. A 19-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-24-18||Tigers -112 v. Royals||4-5||Loss||-112||17 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Detroit Tigers ML* Jordan Zimmermann has been much better this year. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.1% last year to 10.3% this year. He's allowing less hard contact, and he's walking fewer batters. Zimmerann also has a tremendous record against Kansas City. Zimmermann has a stellar 1.48 ERA against Kansas City in a 7 game sample size.
Burch Smith isn't a guy who will be in the game for very long. He'll likely go 5 innings or so max, which means the Royals must use the bullpen a lot. The Royals bullpen has been the worst in the majors this year. Detroit's bullpen has been more than a full run better in ERA on the season.
Both offenses are bad against right handed pitching, but the Tigers have the edge in starting pitching and the bullpen.
The Royals are 14-36 at home this year. The Tigers are 4-0 in Zimmermann's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
|07-24-18||Cardinals -111 v. Reds||4-2||Win||100||17 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* I will look to fade Homer Bailey until he shows me something different. Bailey isn't good anymore, and he's dreadful when pitching at Great American Ballpark. His ERA in his last 17 starts at Great American Ballpark is a ridiculous 7.61. The Cardinals have given Bailey major problems in the past. This Cardinals lineup has a tremendous .462 weighted on base average against him. Bailey's ERA in his career against St. Louis is 5.71. In his last 8 starts against them, his ERA is just above 8.
Austin Gomber is a lefty with deceptive stuff. The Cardinals are an organization that does a very good job developing young pitchers. Gomber has consistently had high swinging strike rates in the minors.
The Reds are 4-18 in Bailey's last 22 home starts. The Reds are 6-19 in Bailey's last 25 starts against the Cardinals.
Take St. Louis.
|07-23-18||White Sox v. Angels OVER 9||5-3||Loss||-115||9 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Lucas Giolito's stats look better on the surface of late, but if you take a deeper dive you'll see he's just getting fortunate with batted balls in play. Giolito has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .158, .154, and .100 in the three games he has pitched well in lately (2, 1, and 0 runs allowed). On the season, Giolito has a 6.18 ERA and a 6.14 FIP and 6.21 xFIP. He's been one of the worst starters in the majors.
The Angels offense has struggled badly against lefties (27th in majors in wOBA), but they are solid against right handed pitching (7th in majors in wOBA).
Jaime Barria is due for regression. Barria has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.84 FIP. Barria has stranded 83.3% of runners on the season which isn't something he can keep up long term. His exit velocity allowed is 89.9 mph, so hitters are hitting the ball very hard against him.
These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in the past month, so I expect late scoring chances as well.
Take the over.
|07-22-18||Indians -1.5 v. Rangers||0-5||Loss||-105||11 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cleveland Indians are playing with confidence right now. If you are a contender, and you see your front office go out and make a big trade that makes you better right away, you have to be highly motivated. This bullpen got much better when Hand and Cimber came over in the deal with the Padres.
Texas has been pretty good against lefties this year, but they are 22nd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rangers also strikeout at the fourth highest rate of any team in baseball against right handed pitching.
Mike Clevinger has solid swing and miss stuff. His swinging strike rate is an impressive 11.5%. Clevinger has improved his control this season, and he has been very consistent overall. Clevinger has a FIP of 3.16 or lower in 6 of his last 7 outings. That tells me it isn't just good luck, but Clevinger is pitching very well.
Yovani Gallardo is near the end of his career, and he isn't a guy I trust going against this red hot Indians offense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in offense against right handed pitching, and they are in top five overall in the past month.
Gallardo has pitched worse in day games than night games in his career. Clevinger has been much better in day games than night games, and Clevinger's numbers on the road are quite a bit better than his numbers at home.
The Indians are 61-20 in their last 81 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is slumping right now and Cleveland is playing well. I see that continuing on Sunday.
Take Cleveland -1.5.
|07-21-18||White Sox v. Mariners OVER 9||5-0||Loss||-100||18 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Dylan Covey has a brutal 8.92 ERA on the road in his career. Covey has been terrible in his last few starts. He hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 games and he has allowed 4 runs or more in each of those starts. He has walked 15 batters and has only 10 strikeouts during that span. Covey comes into this one in really bad form.
Felix Hernandez is far from the pitcher he once was. Hernandez is allowing more hard hit balls than he has in any other season in his career. He is coming off the DL and pitchers often aren't sharp in that first game back.
There have been at least 11 runs scored total in Covey's last four starts. The White Sox bullpen has a 6.62 ERA in the past 30 days, so they are unlikely to provide much relief here.
Covey could give up a big number here, and Hernandez is shaky at this point as well. There is value on the over in this contest.
Take the over.
|07-20-18||Rockies +133 v. Diamondbacks||11-10||Win||133||9 h 52 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Colorado Rockies are 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also good against lefties (8th), but they'll go against right hander today, and Arizona is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.
German Marquez has a brilliant 0.98 WHIP and a 2.62 ERA in 9 starts on the road this year. Marquez has only allowed 5.6% of batted balls against him to be barreled, so he's doing a good job limiting the hard contact.
Robbie Ray can strike out a bunch of people, but his walk rate is more than 5 per nine innings, and he's giving up a ton of hard contact. Ray has allowed more than 45% of batted balls to be hard hit and 10.5% of batted balls to be barreled. Ray has allowed a whopping .454 weighted on base average against this Rockies lineup in his career.
The Diamondbacks are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The DBacks are 2-6 in Ray's last 8 starts vs. the Rockies.
Too big of a price on the underdog here.
|07-15-18||Yankees v. Indians -127||2-5||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians start Trevor Bauer here, and he's been fantastic this year. Bauer has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of his 19 starts this year. He has struck out at least 8 batters in his last nine contests. He has 11 strikeouts or more in 6 of those 9 outings. Bauer's swinging strike rate has gone from 9.2% last year to 13.2% this season. He's having a breakout season to say the least.
Masahiro Tanaka has only made one start since coming off the DL, and he didn't look good in that start against the lowly Orioles. Tanaka has some bad history against this Indians lineup as well. The Indians have a weighted on base average of .402 against Tanaka. Tanaka has a worse WHIP in day games in his career, and he has had a home run problem in day games as well.
This game means more to the Indians than the Yankees in my opinion. Cleveland is fired up for this series, and they want this game to split the 4 game set.
The Yankees are without Gleybar Torres and Gary Sanchez. In the past month, the Indians have an OBP 12 points higher than the Yankees.
The Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. The Indians 63-29 in their last 92 home games.
|07-14-18||Rays v. Twins -124||19-6||Loss||-124||21 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Twins ML* Chris Archer hasn't been quite right all year. He clearly still has potential, but he hasn't been healthy and his mechanics have been a bit off. Archer has allowed 40.6% of batted balls to be hard hit this year. He is walking a few more guys, and getting a bit less swinging strikes and strikeouts as well.
Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home. Berrios had a 2.41 ERA at home last year. He has a 2.49 ERA at home this year. Berrios has a spectacular 0.802 WHIP at home so far this season. Not surprisingly, the Twins are 18-3 in Berrios' last 21 home starts.
The Rays offense is decent against lefties, but they aren't very good against right handed pitching. Tampa Bay is 5-15 in their last 20 road games. The Rays are also 3-13 in their last 16 road games against a right handed starter.
Berrios has dominated at home, and this is a short enough price to lay it with the home team.
|07-13-18||Rangers -112 v. Orioles||5-4||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Baltimore Orioles are playing like they are quitting on the season already. This is the last series before the break, and I would be surprised if they show a lot of fight this weekend. The Rangers aren't a good team, but they have clearly still been playing hard.
Cole Hamels is coming off an awful outing. Hamels didn't even get through the first inning. Hamels' swinging strike rate and most of his advanced metrics suggest he is throwing the ball better this year than last season. He's a proud veteran and I would think he could bounce back against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Alex Cobb is having a dreadful season. His ERA is above 6 on the season. According to Baseball Savant, Cobb is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers this year in hard hit percentage allowed. Batters are crushing the ball off of him.
The Rangers bullpen ranks 5th in the majors in the past month, and they have a lot of youngsters throwing it well. The Orioles bullpen is a mess without O'Day and Bleier.
The Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-5 in Cobb's last 5 home starts.
|07-12-18||Rays -110 v. Twins||1-5||Loss||-110||18 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Blake Snell is having an incredible season. To say that he's had a breakout campaign is an understatement. Snell has started 19 games this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 16 of those 19 starts. He's allowed one run or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts.
According to Baseball Savant, Snell ranks in the top five in the majors in hard hit percentage allowed (allowing the least hard hit batted balls). Snell is getting a ridiculous 13.7% swinging strike rate so far this year as well. It's rare to find pitchers with this combination of strikeout stuff and soft contact inducing stuff.
The Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Minnesota's bullpen has been shakier of late, and now they are without Addison Reed, who has done a great job for them in late innings.
Kyle Gibson is a mediocre pitcher and he's tailed off a bit of late.
The Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in Snell's last 4 starts. A 17-0 angle.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-12-18||Mariners -105 v. Angels||2-11||Loss||-105||7 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels haven't been able to hit left handed pitching all year. The Angels are 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Angels are 10-25 in their last 35 games against a left handed starter.
The Angels face one of the best lefties in the majors in James Paxton tonight. Paxton feels he was slighted in not being named to the All Star team, and I like backing a guy who is pitching to prove a point. Paxton also has positive regression signs with his ERA vs. FIP and SIERA.
The Mariners are 10th in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle has Nelson Cruz in the middle of the lineup, and he crushes left handed pitching. Tyler Skaggs starts for the Angels here and this is his first game back from the DL. I like to fade guys in their first game back.
The Angels hitters have a .190 average against Paxton in his career. The Mariners hitters have a great .386 weighted on base average against Skaggs in his career.
|07-11-18||Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5||4-2||Win||100||18 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been good in the last couple months, but they are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 4th in weighted on base average at .332 against righties, but they are 15th against lefties at .313.
The Padres offense is bad against all pitching, but they are especially bad against right handed pitching. San Diego is dead last in the majors with a weighted on base average of just .287 against righties.
Joey Lucchesi had one bad start after coming back from the DL, but since then he has been pretty sharp. Lucchesi has a deceptive delivery and hitters have had a hard time sizing him up.
Kenta Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts combined. Maeda excels at forcing hitters into weak contact.
Ben May has turned into an excellent under umpire. He has called 64.75% of pitches a strike so far this year. He called 65.17% of pitches a strike last year. The average is right around 63.50%. May is a strike caller.
Take the under.
|07-11-18||Mariners +106 v. Angels||3-0||Win||106||20 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Mariners* Marco Gonzales has had a breakout season this year. Gonzales is getting hitters to swing at more pitches outside the zone, and that's led to a lot less walks. He's also doing a better job minimizing hard contact.
The Angels rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Angels have Mike Trout and a couple other nice pieces, but this isn't a particularly deep lineup.
Jaime Barria ranks in the bottom 10% of starting pitchers in exit velocity allowed. Batters are hitting it hard off him, and he's been fortunate they have found the glove so often. That isn't likely to continue.
The Mariners have a clear bullpen edge here as well.
|07-11-18||Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7||0-3||Win||100||16 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Vince Velasquez has pitched significantly better away from Philadelphia. Velasquez is prone to allowing home runs, and Citizens Bank Park has hurt him because of that. Velasquez has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs at home this year. He has a 2.79 ERA and has allowed 2 homers on the road. Citi Field is definitely a pitcher friendly park.
Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been very good, but his number are tremendous this year. Degrom has racked up a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate so far this year. On 252 batted balls off Degrom, only 10 balls have been barreled, a great 3.6% rate. Degrom is a rare combination of strikeout pitcher and soft contact inducing pitcher. Degrom has a 0.90 WHIP at home this year.
Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 12-1 in his 13 games behind the dish this year. The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts vs. an NL East team. An 18-1 angle.
Take the under.
|07-10-18||Phillies -109 v. Mets||7-3||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Phillies* The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets both send first time starters to the mound tonight. Drew Gagnon gets the ball for the Mets, and Enyel De Los Santos starts for the Phillies.
Gagnon has been in the minors for a long time and is 28 years old. Gagnon has never had all that much success in the minors either. In all of his years in Triple A his ERA's have been: 6.93, 5.56, 6.25, and 4.67. This year he has had the 4.67 ERA, but his FIP if 5.10. Gagnon doesn't have elite stuff.
De Los Santos is one of the Phillies top pitching prospects. He has a 1.89 ERA in Triple A this year. De Los Santos has a great fastball and a very good changeup.
The Mets are without Cespedes, Frazier, Bruce, and Lagares. This lineup is very weakened by injury. The Mets bullpen also ranks in the bottom five in the majors.
The Phillies are pretty healthy for this point of the season, and they have a top 10 bullpen.
The Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 home games.
|07-09-18||A's v. Astros OVER 8||2-0||Loss||-105||17 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics rank second in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Oakland has a much deeper lineup than an average team. The A's have a nice mix of power hitters and contact hitters.
The Houston Astros offense ranks in the top five in the majors. In the last month, they have been great.
Frankie Montas is striking out less than 6 batters per nine innings. He's also giving up a ton of hard contact. In fact, 49.4% of batted balls have been labeled as hard hit against Montas this year. His home run rate is too low and should regress to the mean. He hasn't been fooling people of late.
Gerrit Cole started the season pitching extremely well. He's been mediocre of late. Cole allowed 3 runs or more in only one of his first eight starts. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or more on 6 occasions. His exit velocity he's allowed is moving up, and his walk rate is much higher in recent outings.
The over is 7-0 in the A's last 7 vs. an AL West team. The over is 6-0 in Montas' last 6 starts. The over is 7-0 in the Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts at home. A 25-0 angle.
Take the over.
|07-08-18||Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 7.5||8-13||Loss||-110||12 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants start Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Bumgarner started out a bit slowly after he came back from his long DL stint at the start of the season, but he has been much better of late. Bumgarner has allowed 3 runs in his last 21 innings combined.
Jack Flaherty has been terrific this year. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of 12.7%, which shows he's fooling a lot of hitters. Flaherty throws 93 and 94 mph on the fastball, but he has very good movement on that pitch. He does a nice job limiting hard contact as well.
Both of these offense rate in the mediocre category when you look at the advanced data.
Sunday has been easily the best under day in baseball in the long run, and we have a solid under umpire here in Brian O'Nora. His strikeout/walk ratio is easily over 3 this year. The under is 12-3-1 in O'Nora's last 16 Sunday games behind home plate.
Both teams have some nice under trends. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 last starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 when the Giants are coming off a loss. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-07-18||Cardinals -108 v. Giants||3-2||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star Saturday MLB Play of the Day* The San Francisco Giants start Jeff Samardzija here. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL, and he was bad in Triple A in his rehab starts as well. Samardzija had a 6.56 ERA with a 5.85 FIP in the majors earlier this year in eight starts. He had a 5.29 ERA with a 6.31 FIP in Triple A in his 4 rehab starts.
Samardzija has been a huge day/night splits guy in his career as well. In day games in his career he has a 4.67 ERA (3.81 at night). He has struggled with walks in day games in the past. This is a difficult spot for him to come back in a day game against a pretty good offense.
Carlos Martinez was shaky when first coming back from the DL, but he's been excellent in his last two starts. Martinez has better pure stuff than Samardzija, and he has held this Giants lineup to a miserable .163 average in 85 at bats.
Buster Posey is likely to get either Saturday or Sunday off, so we might get the benefit of a top hitter being out for the Giants.
I'll fade Samardzija here in his first game back from the DL.
Take St. Louis.
|07-07-18||Phillies +114 v. Pirates||3-2||Win||114||11 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies are playing good baseball right now. Philadelphia's bullpen has been a big surprise this year, and both of their best guys in the bullpen should be available for this game. Dominguez has been dominant for this team, and the Phillies actually have the 9th best SIERA of any bullpen in baseball. The Pirates are 12th.
Jake Arrieta continues to do a good job forcing soft contact. Only 28% of batted balls against Arrieta this year have been hit hard. Arrieta isn't as dominant as he was a couple years ago, but he is still a pretty good starter.
Jameson Taillon has been a little shaky of late. His command hasn't been what it normally is. The Pirates have allowed a whopping 48 runs in their last 4 games. They lost 17-5 last night. While many often think a team would bounce back, I ran a query on this and teams who won by 7 or more in the previous game have done very well in the next game (especially when they are an underdog).
The Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. They are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The Phillies are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.
Take the Phillies.
|07-06-18||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8||4-5||Loss||-110||20 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Mike Foltynewicz and Freddy Peralta have both been spectacular this year. Foltynewicz has broken out in a big way this year. He's always been a guy that was expected to be very good, but he hasn't proven it until this year. Foltynewicz has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. That's tremendous consistency from the Braves right hander. He does a good job at limiting hard contact, and his swinging strike rate is higher this year than at any other time in his career.
Freddy Peralta is a youngster who has been dominant so far this year. Peralta has a ridiculous strikeout rate of 13.01 strikeouts per nine innings. He has an amazing 14.1% swinging strike rate. Peralta has allowed no runs in 3 of his 5 starts so far this year. The Braves have been elite against lefties so far this year, but they have been mediocre against righties.
The under is a whopping 20-5-1 in the Brewers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 85-40-5 in the Brewers last 130 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts vs. Milwaukee.
Take the under.
|07-06-18||Rays v. Mets UNDER 7||1-5||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been tremendous all year. Degrom is getting an amazing 15.5% swinging strikes this year. That's among the best in the majors. Add in that hitters are only making hard contact 29.2% of the time on batted balls off Degrom and you have an elite pitcher.
The Tampa Bay offense is one of the worst in the majors, and they'll be minus a hitter here. The Rays have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is worse against right handed pitching, and Degrom is one of the best in the majors.
New York's offense hasn't been good either. Ryne Stanek is the opening pitcher for the Rays here, and this opening pitcher strategy has worked great for the Rays. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is the best in baseball since they started this new method.
The weather here is a big help with winds blowing in at about 13-15 mph. Citi Field is a pitcher's park to start with, and winds do make a big difference here as well.
Take the under.
|07-04-18||Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8||8-4||Loss||-110||19 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors so far this year against right handed pitching. Arizona has a weak bottom of the order and that has hurt them quite a bit this year.
While St. Louis has been decent against right handed pitching, the Cardinals rank 21st in weighted on base average against lefties this year.
Miles Mikolas is only walking 1.13 batters per nine innings this year. Minimizing walks to that degree can really help in limiting damage. Mikolas has also gotten a lot of softly hit fly balls.
Patrick Corbin has been great this year. Corbin has 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. Corbin is using his slider much more this year, and it is a great pitch. In 8 of his 17 starts so far this year, Corbin has allowed 1 run or less.
Tony Randazzo has been striking guys out at a really high rate this year behind the plate, and he should help both pitchers in this one.
Take the under.
|07-04-18||Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5||0-1||Win||100||17 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Colorado has bounced back in the last few games, and it has been largely because they have gotten a lot more length out of their starting pitchers and their bullpen isn't so gassed. Colorado has a couple good bullpen arms in Ottovino (excellent) and Davis. Both of those guys are well rested for this game and that is important.
Tyler Anderson has thrown the ball well of late, and his career ERA at Coors Field is better than his ERA on the road. Anderson is good at creating soft contact, and that helps a lot here.
Andrew Suarez has pitched into some bad luck this year, but he's a solid youngster as well. Suarez is pitching his best in recent games, and if his batting average on balls in play regresses to the mean, his ERA should drop in the long run as well.
Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is definitely one of the best under umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently one of the highest in the majors. The weather calls for winds blowing in from center field at about 10 mph here also.
The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a lefty. The under is 3-0-1 in Suarez's last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-03-18||Angels v. Mariners -105||1-4||Win||100||19 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels have sustained a multitude of injuries. It's no wonder the Angels have dropped back to 43-42 and well behind the Mariners and the Astros. The starting rotation and the bullpen have been crushed by injuries and Zack Cozart is a key piece missing from the lineup.
Wade LeBlanc continues to be underrated at home. His skillset matches this large park in Seattle very well. LeBlanc is a soft tosser who limits hard contact. In Seattle, he gets a lot of fly ball outs. In another park, the fact that he pitches to contact and there are a lot of fly balls coming off opponents bats would be a bad thing, but here it works to his favor.
Andrew Heaney is a decent lefty for the Angels, but Seattle is excellent against lefties with Cruz in the middle of the order being a big reason why.
The Mariners have a big advantage when it comes to bullpens in this one as well.
The Angels are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a 60% win percentage or higher. They are 0-4 in Heaney's last 4 when pitching on 5 days of rest. They are 0-5 in Heaney's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is a perfect 12-0 in LeBlanc's last 12 home starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 42-0 angle.
|07-03-18||Red Sox +102 v. Nationals||11-4||Win||102||15 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Brian Johnson has been a pretty good fill in starter for Boston. Johnson being a lefty is a benefit going against this Nationals team. While Washington is very good against right handed pitching, the Nationals are 22nd in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year.
Boston's offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Tanner Roark is having the worst season of his career. His xFIP and SIERA are the highest they have ever been. He's not doing as good of a job getting soft contact, and he's having trouble locating his offspeed pitches.
Boston has been a great interleague team, and the AL has been money against the NL in the past decade.
The Red Sox are 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-0 angle.
|07-02-18||Cardinals +141 v. Diamondbacks||6-3||Win||141||20 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* There's too much line value for me to pass this one up. It isn't the easiest bet to make because the Cardinals are playing so poorly of late, but I think there is a lot of recency bias in this number.
The Cardinals and DBacks are very similar teams on the whole. Robbie Ray has been terrible at home during his career. Ray has a 5.05 career ERA at home (it is 3.22 on the road). Ray has a 1.52 WHIP at home and a WHIP of only 1.21 on the road.
Ray is a high strikeout guy who also has very poor control. The Cardinals are in the top ten at drawing walks off left handed pitchers. They should work deep into the count against Ray.
Carlos Martinez looked great in his last start. Martinez was masterful against a good Indians offense in his last outing. The DBacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors against right handed pitching.
The Cardinals have one of the lowest batting averages on balls in play against lefties. That should regress to the mean. Almost 50% of balls against Robbie Ray have been classified as hard hit by Baseball Savant.
This is a tossup game to me, and Vegas is implying odds of between 41% and 42% chance of winning on the Cardinals. I'll grab the big underdog here.
Take the Cardinals.
|07-01-18||Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7.5||7-5||Loss||-115||13 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching at a miserable level of .286. The Pirates rank 23rd in the same category. Pittsburgh has hit lefties well, but right handed pitching has been a problem for them.
Jameson Taillon is a very solid pitcher who limits the free passes he gives up. Taillon has a 2.87 ERA in 17 career day games.
Tyson Ross has a career ERA of 2.91 at Petco Park. This is one of the best parks in the majors for pitchers.
The Padres bullpen ranks 10th best in the majors for the season in SIERA and the Pirates rank 10th best. These are two very good bullpens.
Sunday is the best under day by a wide margin in the majors overall in the past 15 years. These afternoon games to finish off a series can lead to some key hitters getting the day off.
Take the under here.
|06-30-18||Red Sox -129 v. Yankees||11-0||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* I don't like to make a habit of going against these Yankees. New York is a really good team with very few weaknesses. The price is too good to pass up going against them here though.
Chris Sale is the best lefty in baseball right now. Sale's statistics are the best they have been in his career, and he's had some amazing years already. Sale is getting 15.6% swinging strikes which is amazing. He's getting more soft contact this year by a wide margin, and his pitching from ahead in the count on a regular basis. Sale has allowed 1 run or less in 8 starts already this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last two outings.
Sonny Gray is the biggest weakness in this Yankees rotation right now. Gray has been subpar everywhere, but he's been awful at home. Gray has an ugly 6.23 ERA in 13 career starts at Yankee Stadium. His WHIP is 1.57 in those games.
Chris Sale has a tremendous 1.73 career ERA against the Yankees.
The Red Sox are the best offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and they face a struggling righty here. Sale is locked in and is laying a much lower price than normal.
|06-29-18||Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||3-1||Loss||-115||20 h 8 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. Colorado is only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitchers. The Rockies go against lefty Rich Hill in this one.
Hill has struggled so far this season. He has gone less than six innings and allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his 7 starts. He has already allowed 11 barreled hits in 97 batted balls, and he allowed just 10 of those in 240 batted balls two years ago. Batters are hitting the ball very hard against him.
Tyler Anderson has allowed a very high .427 wOBA against the Dodgers in his career. Justin Turner has 10 hits in 18 at bats against him. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA and a 4.70 FIP so far this year. The Rockies bullpen has a ridiculous 7.90 ERA in the last month.
The Dodgers bullpen is worn out. They have thrown the third most innings of any bullpen in the past month.
Both teams hit lefties well and both lefties are vulnerable here. This is a low posted total given all these factors.
The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 Friday games. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Hill's last 4 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 24-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-28-18||Angels v. Red Sox -123||2-4||Win||100||17 h 44 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are 54-27 on the season and have the best record in the majors. It is extremely rare to see them as this short of a home favorite, and I'm backing them in this spot.
The Angels are extremely banged up. They are without Cozart, Ohtani, and several key guys in the bullpen. They are a .500 team.
The early money has steamed the Angels, so I'll take the discounted price on the Red Sox.
Brian Johnson is certainly not a star pitcher by any means, but the Angels are 19th in weighted on base average against lefties.
Jamie Barria is due for regression, and he now faces the best offense in the majors against right handed pitchers and it is on the road. It's a tough spot for the youngster.
The Red Sox have a big offensive advantage and a significant bullpen edge as well.
The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. Boston is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 starts. The Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Boston. A 21-0 angle.
|06-27-18||Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 9||0-3||Win||100||17 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Yankees have been on amazing under run of late. The under is 19-2 in the Yankees last 21 games. In a long season like the MLB season, you'll often find some trends like this that can continue for quite some time. I try not to fight those trends any more than I have to.
Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for Wednesday night's contest between the Yankees and the Phillies, and Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. There's no other guy you'd want behind the plate for an under.
Cessa is a middle of the road pitcher, but the Phillies offense is inconsistent. Cessa is backed by the best bullpen in the majors.
Eflin has his swinging strike rate up to 10.1% this year. He's throwing harder and getting much softer contact. Only 28.2% of batted balls against him have been classified as hard hit.
The under is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 interleague games. The under is 6-0 in Cessa's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-0 angle.
Take the under.
|06-26-18||Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||9-4||Loss||-107||19 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Ross Stripling has quickly turned into a terrific pitcher. A deep dive into his numbers shows a guy who is no fluke. Stripling is allowing only 25.7% of batted balls to be hit hard. He is also striking out 10.58 batters per nine innings. He is walking only 1.37 per nine innings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year.
Jon Lester has allowed the Dodgers lineup to hit only .198 in his career. Lester has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts.
The Dodgers and Cubs both have solid bullpens.
Bill Miller is a tremendous under umpire. His strike zone is big to start with, and it expands with two strikes on the batter. That should be a big help to both of these pitchers who are good at nibbling at the corners.
The under is 19-5-2 in Stripling's last 26 starts. The under is 22-8 in the Cubs last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.
Take the under.
|06-25-18||Nationals v. Rays -104||0-11||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Washington Nationals on Monday night. This is a difficult spot for the Nationals. Washington hosted the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball. That game was delayed by rain and then finished a little after 12:30 am EST.
Washington will get a lot less rest than Tampa Bay here. The Rays were home against the Yankees in their last series. The Nationals are already very banged up to start with, and this is a spot where we could see a key player or two sit out for Washington because of the tough spot.
Blake Snell has been the better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez this year. Snell has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 13 of his 16 starts so far this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in a home start all season.
The Rays have the lowest batting average on balls in play in high leverage spots in the majors, so they are due for some positive regression on offense. Tampa Bay is much better against lefties than righties.
Tampa Bay is 10-2 in Snell's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Take Tampa Bay.