|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-17-19||Cardinals -105 v. Reds||1-6||Loss||-105||13 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central race, but they need every win they can get right now. Cincinnati has fallen apart in the last few games. The Reds lost a key contest this past weekend against the Cubs when they were up late in that one and gave up a 3-0 lead in the late innings. They haven't come back from that. It doesn't help that the injury/suspensions problems are piling up.
Joey Votto and Jesse Winker are two very good left handed bats, and both of them have missed the last two days with back injuries. They are questionable for this one. Amir Garrett is serving his suspension now. The Reds bullpen is running on fumes right now, and they have been a complete mess of late.
In the Cardinals, you have what is a top five bullpen in baseball. The Reds rank 3rd worst in bullpen ERA in the past month, and their bullpen FIP is 6.04 during that time. This is a total mismatch in the bullpen.
Miles Mikolas has thrown better late in the year in the past. Anthony Desclafani is against him here, and he has some major home run issues. The heat makes the ball really fly at GABP this time of the year.
The Cardinals are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. the NL Central.
Take St. Louis.
|08-16-19||Brewers v. Nationals -1.5||1-2||Loss||-100||8 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin in this one. Corbin had a break out season last year with increasing the usage of his tremendous slider. He started the season a little slowly this year, but he has been great of late. Corbin has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.54 FIP since June 19. In 8 of his 10 starts since then, he has allowed 2 runs or less.
Corbin has been amazing at home this year. He has a 1.78 ERA at home and opponents have a ridiculously low .222 weighted on base average against him when he is at home.
The Brewers are 9th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They rank 21st in the majors in wOBA against lefties.
The Nationals have been playing good baseball for the last couple months. The Nationals have been particularly strong at home. Adrian Houser is far from a strong starter, and he doesn't pitch deep into the game normally. The Brewers middle relief has been very weak this year.
Since I don't want to lay a big price on the moneyline here, I'm going to back the Nationals on the run line.
Take Washington -1.5.
|08-15-19||White Sox +162 v. Angels||7-8||Loss||-100||20 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. Andrew Heaney is working his way back from an injury and it is hard to say what we'll get from him. There is a lot of potential variance here and this is a big plus number price on the White Sox.
The Angels have been losing a bunch of games to poor teams on their home field of late. The Orioles, Tigers, and Pirates have all given them a lot of trouble. The Angels are banged up. Their defense has been really bad of late. The bullpen is a problem. Andrelton Simmons is clearly missed badly at shortstop.
The White Sox have a young team and they are improving right now. Reynaldo Lopez starts here, and he has always been considered a high upside guy, but he was terrible in the first half of the season. Lopez has looked like a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season though. Lopez has a stellar 2.13 ERA in six starts since the break. He has a FIP of 2.87 in those six starts.
The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. The Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the White Sox.
|08-14-19||Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12.5||6-7||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Both lineups will square off against a lefty in this matchup.
Arizona ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The Rockies rank 9th in wOBA against lefties.
The Rockies are dead last in the majors in wOBA on the road, and they are first in the majors in wOBA at home. Coors Field is still the ultimate hitters ballpark. Arizona has scored 8 and 9 runs in the first two games of this series.
The DBacks bullpen has been middle of the road in the past month, but the Rockies have the second worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the past 30 days.
Robbie Ray has been absolutely torched by this Rockies offense. While his ERA looks decent at Coors, his WHIP is a very high 1.761 here. Ray has allowed an awful .492 wOBA against this Rockies lineup overall in his career. Kyle Freeland has been a mess all year, and the DBacks have given him major trouble in the past. Arizona has an impressive .378 wOBA against him.
With a temperature in the low 90's for a day game at Coors, I expect a lot of runs.
Take the over.
|08-13-19||Mariners v. Tigers OVER 9||11-6||Win||100||18 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd was tremendous earlier this year. Boyd had a .267 weighted on base average allowed through the first two months of the year. He has gradually fallen off since that time. Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 10 games. He has a 5.08 ERA and a .324 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season thus far. In his last game, he walked 3 batters and only struck out one.
Yusei Kikuchi has been disappointing this year. He has a 5.34 ERA and 5.88 FIP. Kikuchi has a terrible 6.93 ERA and a .416 wOBA in the second half of the season thus far.
The Mariners and Tigers are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching.
These two bullpens rank 28th and 29th in the majors in FIP on the season.
The wind is blowing out at Comerica, and this is a park with very strong angles to the over with the wind blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 degrees or warmer and a wind blowing out at 10 mph or more (11 mph out is the forecast here) the over is a whopping 44-19 in the last 63 situations.
Take the over.
|08-12-19||Rays v. Padres UNDER 8.5||10-4||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi gets the ball here for San Diego. Lucchesi has been tremendous at home this year. He has a 2.71 ERA at home and has allowed a weighted on base average of only .250 at Petco Park.
Diego Castillo serves as the opener for the Rays here. Austin Pruitt should be next in line, but Kevin Cash has made it clear that he may have to use the team's bullpen depth more in this series because of the pitcher batting. The Padres are 21st in wOBA against right handed pitching.
Both of these teams rank in the top six in bullpen SIERA and xFIP in the last 30 days, so they enter in good form.
This is still clearly a very good pitcher's park, and interleague games in NL stadiums have trended toward the under in the past several years.
Take the under.
|08-11-19||Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5||5-4||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Over* These two bullpens have been absolutely terrible of late. They took turns getting shelled in Saturday night's game. The Braves ended up blowing a big lead and the Marlins picked up the comeback win.
For the year, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the advanced metrics. In the past 30 days, both of these teams rank in the bottom five. The Marlins are 26th in bullpen FIP in that time and the Braves are 29th.
Mike Foltynewicz has potential, but he hasn't been good so far this year. His last start looks decent on paper giving up 3 runs in 5 and 1/3 in Minnesota, but he stranded tons of runners and had good batted ball luck in that one.
Hector Noesi makes the start for the Marlins here. Noesi has made one start since the end of the 2015 season in the majors. That start didn't go well at all. The Mets scored 5 runs on him in 5 innings pitched. Noesi has never been a good starter, and he has less velocity now and he's up against a great lineup.
The Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. The Marlins offense has shown signs of life in the past couple weeks too.
The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5. The over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 24-0 angle.
Take the over.
|08-10-19||Rockies v. Padres -1.5||5-8||Win||105||19 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* The Colorado Rockies have been terrible in recent weeks. The Rockies have the single worst weighted on base average on the road of any team in the majors. Their bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors in the past 30 days, and it isn't even close (7.16 ERA).
Chi Chi Gonzalez starts for the Rockies here, and he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez had a 6.10 ERA and a 5.76 FIP in Triple A this year. In the majors, he has a 5.95 ERA and a 7.18 FIP this season. In Gonzalez's last 8 starts in the majors, he has more walks than strikeouts. That gets you into big trouble more often than not.
Chris Paddack is coming off a rare poor start, but he has been very good this year. Paddack has a great track record at home as well. Paddack has a ridiculously good 0.739 WHIP at home.
The Padres bullpen ranks first in the majors in SIERA for the season and first in FIP in the last 30 days. San Diego has a huge bullpen advantage.
In the Rockies last 17 road games- if you took their opponent -1.5 you would have went 12-5. They face a very good young pitcher here and we are getting a plus money price on the run line.
Take San Diego -1.5.
|08-10-19||Pirates v. Cardinals -138||1-3||Win||100||17 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The Cardinals are 13-3 in Adam Wainwright's last 16 home starts against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wainwright's splits at home are tremendous this year. He has a 2.26 ERA at home and his wOBA allowed is only .292.
Joe Musgrove has had 5 of his last 6 starts with a FIP of 5.50 or higher. He is dealing with a minor back injury and was torched in his last start. The Cardinals have hit him really well this year in general as well.
The Pirates have absolutely nothing to play for. They are 5-21 in their last 26 games. The Cardinals are right in the thick of the playoff race, and this series means a lot to them. This is their chance to make up some ground.
The Pirates are 0-5 in Musgrove's last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals.
Take the Cardinals.
|08-09-19||Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8||6-7||Loss||-110||17 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Nationals and Mets play a really important series in New York this weekend. The Nationals started the season slowly, but they have been great since those early struggles. The Mets are on a ridiculous run that has them just barely on the outside looking in when it comes to the NL Wild Card race.
Stephen Strasburg has been tremendous this year as long as he isn't up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Strasburg has been torched by Arizona twice. Before that last poor start, Strasburg had allowed only 4 runs in his last 5 starts combined. For the season, his numbers are the best of his career. Strasburg has been great at Citi Field in his career too. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 0.996 WHIP in 12 starts at Citi Field.
Marcus Stroman didn't really expect to be in a playoff race when he was traded to the Mets, but here he is. Stroman has high quality stuff and he has induced a lot more soft contact this year than in previous seasons.
The fact that both teams had the day off yesterday helps. The bullpens should have their best arms ready to go.
The under is 13-3 in the Nationals last 16 road games. The under is 19-9-1 in Strasburg's last 29 road starts.
Take the under.
|08-07-19||Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||1-2||Win||105||12 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. They rank 26th in the last 30 days. The Cardinals lineup hasn't been good most of the year. They have had some short stretches where they look great, but most of the time they have been a disappointment.
On the other hand, the Cardinals pitching staff has been good. They rank 9th in overall team ERA. The bullpen has been a top five bullpen in the majors for much of this season.
The Dodgers rank first in the majors in team ERA. The Dodgers bullpen is a top ten bullpen in the majors, and Clayton Kershaw pitching deep into the game last night was really helpful for this unit.
Jack Flaherty was shaky early on this year, but he has been pitching great of late. Flaherty has a FIP of 2.88 or lower in four straight starts. He has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last five starts.
Dustin May is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. May has excellent stuff and his upside is great.
Doug Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years.
The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in Flaherty's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two in Los Angeles. A combined 26-0 angle.
|08-06-19||Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||1-3||Win||100||20 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw has been great at home throughout his career. Kershaw has a great 2.35 ERA so far this year at home. Kershaw has been good at inducing soft contact. Kershaw has been in good form of late as well. He has allowed only 7 runs in his last 5 starts. He has thrown at least six innings in each of those starts.
Miles Mikolas has allowed only 7 runs in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Mikolas was shaky at the beginning of the season, but he has really improved in the last couple months.
Both the Dodgers and Cardinals have a top 10 bullpen in FIP for the course of the season and in the last 30 days as well.
The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 6-0-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. A combined 16-0 angle.
Bill Miller is a proven strike caller and he's behind the dish here.
Take the under.
|08-06-19||White Sox +105 v. Tigers||5-3||Win||105||12 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Detroit Tigers are now 9-47 in their last 56 games vs. a right handed starter. Detroit is 1-10 in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing record. The Tigers are the worst team in baseball. They traded away Castellanos and Greene at the deadline, and those were two of their better players. This team is in really bad shape.
Derek Norris starts for the Tigers here. The White Sox are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The White Sox are healthier than they were a couple weeks ago. The Tigers are 1-11 in Norris' last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Dylan Cease hasn't been great so far this year, but he has a really high upside. Cease has great stuff and he should turn into a good pitcher. He faces the single worst lineup in baseball here.
I have to fade the Tigers at plus money here.
Take the White Sox.
|08-05-19||White Sox -118 v. Tigers||7-4||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Detroit Tigers are the worst team in baseball. Detroit is 10-43 in their last 53 games. The Tigers are 9-46 in their last 55 games against a right handed pitcher.
In this one, they'll be against a good right handed pitcher. Lucas Giolito has had a really good season. Giolito had a bit of a blip for a while, but he has looked better again of late. Giolito has allowed 1 run or less in 10 of his last 16 starts this season. He has a FIP of 2.92 or lower in 3 of his last 4 starts. The one poor start was against the Twins. He's not up against anything like the Twins offense today.
The Tigers traded away their best bullpen arm in Shane Greene. While the White Sox bullpen isn't good, it is slightly better than the Tigers.
Spencer Turnbull has potential for the Tigers, but he has had multiple injuries and his most recent setback was a back injury. This is his first game off the injured list.
The White Sox are 7-3 in Giolito's last 10 road starts. A good price here on the road team.
Take the White Sox.
|08-04-19||Angels v. Indians -1.5||2-6||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians are playing excellent baseball right now. Cleveland ranks 5th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past month. After a slow start to the year, their offense has had it going of late.
The Indians bullpen ranks first in the majors in FIP. This Tribe bullpen has been far deeper and much better than anyone thought they would be this season.
Shane Bieber starts for Cleveland here. Bieber has a 14.2% swinging strike rate, and he has a 3.40 ERA and a 3.18 FIP on the season. He has been tremendous.
Jaime Barria starts for the Angels. Barria has given up a .349 wOBA in his career on the road. Barria started 9 games in Triple A this year and had a 8.73 ERA. He has a 6.28 ERA in the majors. Barria hasn't proven good enough to get professional hitters out.
The Indians are 79-37 in their last 116 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Angels are 17-41 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Angels are 5-21 in the last 26 meetings between these two teams.
Take Cleveland -1.5.
|08-03-19||Cardinals v. A's -132||3-8||Win||100||19 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Oakland* The Oakland Athletics have a good home field advantage. They have been able to really take advantage of teams who don't come to Oakland very often. St. Louis is definitely one of those teams.
How has Oakland at home done against non-divisional opponents since 2005? When they are either an underdog or a favorite of -140 or lower, they are 274-221 with an ROI of 10.0%. That's impressive in a big sample size. It gets a lot more impressive when you take their record against teams with a win percentage of higher than 50% on the year. Oakland is 186-121 in these spots with a whopping ROI of 22.4%.
St. Louis is coming off a big series against the Cubs. This is a difficult spot for them in Oakland. The A's have Mike Fiers on the mound here. Fiers has drastic splits on the year. At home, Fiers has a 2.61 ERA and an impressive .263 wOBA allowed.
Dakota Hudson is pitching for the Cardinals, and Hudson has been in poor form of late. Hudson has a FIP of 5.11 or higher in six straight starts. He has been struggling with his control. The A's are top ten in the majors in walk rate against right handed pitching.
The A's are 11-4 in their last 15 interleague home games. They are 8-2 in Fiers' last 10 starts.
|08-03-19||Nationals -129 v. Diamondbacks||7-18||Loss||-129||7 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are a whopping 40-11 in Stephen Strasburg's last 51 road starts. After a slow start to the season, the Nationals have played some really good baseball. Washington's bullpen is still questionable, but they haven't been nearly as bad in the past month as they were early in the season. Strasburg has been absolutely dominant.
How good has Strasburg been? He has a 3.26 ERA and a 2.93 FIP suggesting he has been at least somewhat unlucky. Strasburg has been at his absolute best of late. He has a FIP of 1.72 or lower in five straight starts. He has a long history of being much better in the second half of the season.
Robbie Ray has allowed 3 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts and 9 of his last 12. He gives up too many home runs and allows too many baserunners, and that usually makes it hard for him to completely shut down a team.
Strasburg has allowed 1 run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and in that other start he allowed 3 runs.
The Nationals rank as a top five offense in baseball against lefties. The DBacks rank in the bottom ten against righties.
The DBacks are 0-6 in Ray's last 6 starts vs. Washington.
|08-02-19||Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 10||3-0||Loss||-100||3 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Arizona ranks 11th in that statistic. Both teams are hitting the ball well.
|08-02-19||Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10||2-4||Loss||-105||8 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have seen 10 of their last 11 games finish at 12 runs or higher, so this total isn't in all that high of a territory for the Yankees. New York is expected to get back DJ Lemahieu tonight and he is a big key for this offense.
The Boston Red Sox are 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games. None of those games have finished with less than 11 runs.
Since the All Star Break, Boston is ranked first in weighted on base average as a team. The Yankees are rated second in wOBA as a team.
Eduardo Rodriguez had an ERA of 6.14 at Yankee Stadium last season. James Paxton has been in terrible form of late. Paxton has a FIP of 6.22 or higher in three straight starts.
The over is 12-1 in the Yankees last 13 games. The over is 12-1 in Rodriguez's last 13 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Red Sox last 7 overall. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 38-2 combined angle.
Take the over.
|08-01-19||Rays +119 v. Red Sox||9-4||Win||119||16 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays start Brendan McKay here. McKay is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He had a 1.30 ERA in AA this year and a superb 0.93 ERA in AAA. McKay has good control and he has several strikeout pitches. His upside is very high. While the Red Sox are elite against right handed pitching, they are only mediocre against lefties.
Andrew Cashner isn't very good. Cashner has a 4.18 ERA, but his SIERA is 5.33. He has been very fortunate so far this year. This is a hitters park with these weather conditions, and Cashner doesn't have swing and miss stuff.
The Rays have the deeper bullpen as well.
I'll take the plus money price on this one.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-30-19||Astros v. Indians UNDER 8.5||2-0||Win||105||17 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber is quite the pitching matchup. These are two of the top five bullpens in the majors as well. While it has been hot in Ohio in recent weeks, the temperature has cooled quite a bit compared to a couple weeks ago. The weather calls for a temperature in the upper 70's here with a very slight breeze blowing in from center field.
Verlander has easily the highest swinging strike rate of his career at 15.6%, so he is fooling a lot of hitters. Verlander has looked sharp since the break. He has only allowed 4 earned runs in three starts since the break. He has a whopping 30 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched since the break.
Bieber clearly isn't on the same level as Verlander overall, but he is having a great season. Bieber has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.18 FIP. He has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 14.4%. How good has Bieber been lately? In his last eight starts, he has a FIP of 1.81 or lower in five of them.
The under is 15-5-1 in Bieber's last 21 starts. The under is 13-6-1 in Verlander's last 20 starts. Expect a lot of swings and misses in Cleveland on Tuesday night.
Take the under.
|07-30-19||Diamondbacks v. Yankees OVER 11.5||4-2||Loss||-110||17 h 2 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have played nine straight games that have gone over the total. There hasn't been less than 12 runs in any of those games. The Yankees have gotten healthier on offense, and this is a scary good lineup. The Yankees haven't been getting good starting pitching though, and their bullpen has been a bit shaky in the last week as well.
J.A. Happ is nearly 37 years old. Happ isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. He has a 5.23 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. Notably, Happ has been far worse when pitching at Yankee Stadium. At home, Happ has allowed a .369 weighted on base average. On the road, his WOBA allowed is only .304. The DBacks aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they are a top five offense against lefties.
Taylor Clarke pitched pretty well last time out against the Orioles. He won't get to face a weak lineup again here. Clarke has some really ugly numbers so far this season. He has allowed a .393 wOBA overall. Opposing hitters have barreled the ball on 12.9% of batted balls against him, which is one of the highest marks you will ever see. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is giving up 2.26 home runs per nine innings. This is a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium in warm weather against this lineup.
The over is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 5-0 in Clarke's last 5 road starts.
Take the over.
|07-29-19||Dodgers -123 v. Rockies||1-9||Loss||-123||9 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Kenta Maeda here. Maeda had a really bad start to the season, but since May he has been very solid. Maeda has a 3.34 ERA and a 3.96 FIP since May 10.
Maeda has had far more success at Coors Field than the average pitcher. Maeda owns an impressive 3.12 ERA and an excellent 1.14 WHIP in 40 and 1/3 innings pitched at Coors Field. I don't know that he can keep that rate of success going, but he is above average at Coors.
Jon Gray has had a minor calf injury of late, and his results have shown he isn't 100 percent. Gray has a 4.05 ERA and a 4.23 FIP on the season. In his last four starts only, Gray has a 5.06 ERA and a 5.48 FIP. What about against this Dodgers lineup in his career? The Dodgers have crushed him in the past. The Dodgers have a whopping .440 wOBA against Gray. Cody Bellinger has 9 hits in 14 at bats against Gray.
The Dodgers have a bullpen that is shaky at times, but they are better than the Rockies bullpen.
The Dodgers are 61-30 in their last 91. The Rockies are 7-19 in their last 26.
Take the Dodgers.
|07-28-19||Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 10||11-4||Loss||-107||11 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Cubs and Brewers are rivals and they have a history of playing a lot of low scoring games against one another. The under is 30-8 in their last 38 games against each other.
Zach Davies is good at inducing soft contact. Davies has drastic 1st and 2nd half splits (better in the second half) in his career. He also has a 1.20 WHIP in day games and a 1.394 WHIP in night games.
Jose Quintana has held the Brewers to a .278 OBP in his career.The Brewers have been inconsistent on offense this year.
Gary Cedarstrom is a clear positive for the under here with his strikes called % and strikeout/walk percentages.
The under is 5-0 in the Cubs last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 8-0-1 in Davies' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 8-0 in Davies' last 8 games against the Cubs. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Cubs at home. A 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-28-19||Pirates v. Mets -117||7-8||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Mets ML* I didn't necessarily expect to take the Mets here, but this price is too short.
Jason Vargas has been excellent since his first three starts of the year. Vargas also has amazing numbers at home. Vargas induces soft contact, and Citi Field is definitely a pitcher's park. Vargas has a 2.78 ERA and has allowed only a .277 weighted on base average at home this year.
The Pirates rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Pittsburgh's offense has been ice cold in recent games, and there is no reason to expect them to breakout in this one.
Chris Archer has been disappointing all year. Archer has allowed 3 runs or more in 12 of his last 15 starts. He gives up a lot of hard contact and has poor control.
The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The Mets are 7-3 in Vargas' last 10 home starts.
Take New York.
|07-27-19||Rangers v. A's OVER 9.5||4-5||Loss||-100||19 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's have lost three straight games. They haven't hit a home run in three straight contests. Oakland's offense will have a favorable matchup here as they are up against Adrian Sampson.
Sampson has allowed 18 runs in his last 10 innings as a starter. Sampson is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings this season. A guy like Sampson who doesn't miss bats has to induce weak contact to be successful in the long run. He is giving up all sorts of hard contact right now. Sampson's exit velocity allowed is in the bottom five percent in the majors.
Homer Bailey is coming off one of those awful starts that we saw with regularity from him last season and the year before. Bailey has been a bit better this year, but his lack of control lately is concerning. Bailey gives up a lot more hard contact than an average pitcher as well.
The Rangers bullpen has been overworked of late, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in the past 30 days. The A's bullpen is mediocre as well.
The over is 7-1 in Sampson's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Take the over.
|07-26-19||Pirates +162 v. Mets||3-6||Loss||-100||17 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* This is a price grab. The New York Mets aren't a good team. New York enters this game at 47-55 and they are a -170 or higher favorite many places. When you see that kind of number, you would have to assume that Jacob Degrom is pitching. He isn't pitching here.
The Pirates aren't a good team either, but they aren't terrible. This isn't a bottom feeder team like the Detroit Tigers or Baltimore Orioles. The Pirates have lost a lot of close games of late.
Zack Wheeler is good, but he is inconsistent. The Mets bullpen is a major weakness. The Pirates have a big advantage there. We've seen the Mets blow a lot of leads this season.
Pittsburgh starts Dario Agrazal. He isn't a great pitcher, but he induces soft contact and has been able to pitch very well in his first few starts in the majors.
The Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a right handed starter.
Take the big price on Pittsburgh here.
|07-26-19||Rays -128 v. Blue Jays||3-1||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Jacob Waguespack here. While he hasn't been that bad thus far in the majors, his minor league numbers suggest he has little upside. His career WHIP in the minors was an ugly 1.40. Waguespack has questionable control and doesn't have overpowering stuff. Deception is the best tool he has, but the Rays will see him for a second time here.
Diego Castillo is comfortable in the opener role, and Ryan Yarbrough is expected to be the bulk pitcher in this game for Tampa Bay. Yarbrough has a great ability to induce weak contact. He ranks in the top 2% in the majors in exit velocity allowed according to Baseball Savant. Yarbrough has a 3.93 ERA, but his FIP is an impressive 3.35.
Tampa Bay's bullpen got a rest yesterday which is big since they have been used heavily. The Rays have the better bullpen here.
Tampa Bay's offense has been weak against lefties, but they rank 12th in the majors in wOBA against righties.
The Blue Jays are 12-31 in their last 43 against a team with a winning record.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-24-19||Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||2-5||Loss||-107||12 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. John Means has had a great season, but this is a tough test for him. Means has a .258 wOBA allowed at home and a .328 wOBA allowed on the road. This is the highest ranked offense against lefties that he has faced this year so far.
Means is a quality pitcher, but he is clearly due for some regression. Even with soft contact allowed, we can't expect Means to have a 2.95 ERA and a 4.36 FIP and 5.35 xFIP forever. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in baseball.
Taylor Clarke has been terrible this year. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA in Triple A this year. It hasn't gone well in the majors either. Clarke has a 6.50 ERA and a 6.46 FIP in the majors this season. He is giving up a ton of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate of only 8.8%. He doesn't have good enough secondary pitches.
Nick Lentz is the home plate umpire here. He has a strikeout/walk ratio of only 1.97 this year. Lentz is leaning heavily toward the over right now. He has been squeezing pitchers consistently this season.
The over is 5-0 in Means' last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the DBacks last 4 games.
Take the over.
|07-23-19||Yankees -115 v. Twins||14-12||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are starting to get healthy, and this team is loaded with talent. The Minnesota Twins have come back to the pack some after a nice start to the season.
While I do think the Twins are a solid team, they aren't on the same level as the Yankees.
Domingo German doesn't get enough credit for how good of a job he has done as starting pitcher. German has a swinging strike percentage of 14.2%, so he has some nasty stuff. His SIERA sits at a solid 3.87.
Kyle Gibson is a mediocre pitcher. He is capable of throwing a gem, but he is inconsistent. The Yankees lineup has been crushing the baseball of late, and this is a tough test for him. The Yankees lineup has a great .369 weighted on base average against Gibson in the past.
The Yankees have a big bullpen edge here as well. The Yankees are 18-6 in German's last 24 starts. They are 56-24 in their last 80 games overall.
Take New York.
|07-23-19||Phillies -136 v. Tigers||3-2||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Philadelphia Phillies are laying a shorter price than I expected here. Matt Boyd has had a nice season for the Detroit Tigers. He was spectacular earlier this year. He has slowly regressed in recent outings.
Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in six straight starts. The Tigers offense ranks in the bottom 3 of the majors in OBP. They are especially bad against right handed pitching. I wouldn't expect him to get a lot of support here.
Aaron Nola had several great starts before his last outing. He is coming off a poor outing against the Dodgers, but the Tigers are far from the Dodgers. This is a very weak lineup. I think Nola has a good chance to pitch well here.
I won't complicate this handicap. The Tigers are 10-42 in their last 52 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 15-43 in their last 58 home games. They are 1-7 in Boyd's last 8 starts.
|07-23-19||Padres v. Mets UNDER 8.5||2-5||Win||100||17 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Padres take on the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday night. A temperature in the mid 70's and a wind blowing in from center field is a positive for the under here.
Jason Vargas has been good since a really bad first 3 starts of the year. Vargas has been particularly good at home. He has allowed hitters only a .222 average and a .289 weighted on base average at home. Vargas excels at allowing soft contact, and Citi Field is a great pitchers park.
Chris Paddack is a star youngster who is throwing it really well right now. Paddack combines the ability to make hitters swing and miss and an elite ability to induce soft contact. Paddack has allowed a grand total of 6 hits and only 2 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. He is walking only 1.9 batters per nine innings.
The Mets have scored 4 runs or less in 10 of their last 14 games.
The under is 12-0-1 in Vargas' last 13 home starts. The under is 7-0 in the Padres last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. A combined 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-21-19||A's v. Twins UNDER 10.5||6-7||Loss||-100||2 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins pitching staff has been a big surprise this year. Michael Pineda is pitching as well as anyone for the Twins right now. Pineda has a whopping eight straight games with a FIP of 3.83 or lower. He has a FIP of lower than 3 in seven of those eight starts. He has been consistently very good.
Daniel Mengden doesn't miss many bats, but he does induce soft contact, and he has a very good defense behind him. The Twins offense has cooled off quite a bit of late.
Both bullpens are better than average. In the past 30 days, both of these bullpens rank in the top ten in baseball.
Additon is the umpire here, and he is a clear under umpire with his strikeout percentage and low walk percentage.
The weather here isn't nearly as extreme as it has been in recent days. A gametime temperature of 79 degrees and wind blowing sideways doesn't help the offenses.
The under is 7-0 in the Twins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 16-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-21-19||Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 12.5||0-5||Loss||-105||12 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Boston is also first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Red Sox put up 17 runs yesterday in a win over Baltimore.
Boston will go up against Asher Wojciechowski who starts for the Orioles here. Nearly 50% of batted balls off him this year have been classified as hard hit. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings. He has been absolutely crushed in his day game appearances in his career, and I don't like his chances of slowing down Boston here.
Andrew Cashner starts for the Red Sox here against his old team. Cashner is allowing the most hard contact of his career this season. He doesn't get many swings and misses either.
The hot weather over the eastern part of the United States right now is extreme. A temperature of 98 degrees with winds blowing out at about 7 mph are expected for this one.
In 5 of the last 8 Red Sox games, one of the teams in the game has gotten to double digits. You couldn't get more favorable conditions for hitting than this weather.
The Orioles and Red Sox bullpens are both struggling of late, and they have been overused.
The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 between these two teams.
Take the over.
|07-20-19||Mets v. Giants -140||11-4||Loss||-140||3 h 25 m||Show|
*Note- this is the same play as last night. The Sportscapping system deleted this play in error, so I am simply re-posting the play*
*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The New York Mets can find a lot of different ways to lose games. Jacob Degrom was terrific again yesterday, but they lost thanks to an error in the 10th inning. The Mets have some good players, but as a team they just aren't very good. The bullpen is a major problem, and injuries have slowed the team down.
Walker Lockett gets the start here for the Mets, and Lockett isn't good at all. Lockett has a 10.32 ERA in the majors, and all of his minor league numbers suggest he isn't good either. He's a guy who can't miss enough bats, and he gives up a lot of hard contact. His WHIP in the majors is a whopping 1.99.
|07-19-19||Mets v. Giants +160||0-1||Win||160||9 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Giants ML* This isn't a fade of Jacob Degrom in any way. It is a fade of the Mets laying this kind of a price against a team playing really good baseball. The Mets bullpen is a bottom 6 or 8 bullpen in the majors. The Giants bullpen has easily the best advanced metrics in the past month. Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and crew have been great for the Giants all year.
We have all seen the Mets blow lead after lead late in the game. The Giants have kept fighting many times lately when they are down early in the game.
Tyler Beede has improved of late, and the Mets are better against lefties than righties. Beede has been using his slider more of late, and it has worked out well.
The Giants have won 14 of their last 17 games. The Mets are just 2-7 in Degrom's last 9 road starts.
Take San Francisco at this price.
|07-19-19||Rockies v. Yankees -1.5||2-8||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The Yankees have been hitting the ball extremely well lately. This offense is starting to get healthy, and they are scary good.
Kyle Freeland has been having trouble all year. Freeland going up against this Yankees lineup could get very ugly. The Rockies bullpen is bottom five in the majors too.
J.A. Happ has pitched well in 3 of his last 4 four games. The Rockies rank dead last by a wide margin in weighted on base average on the road this year. The Yankees have a top five bullpen.
Take New York -1.5 here.
|07-19-19||Phillies v. Pirates OVER 10.5||6-1||Loss||-105||8 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Pirates are 23-5-2 to the over in their last 30 home games. This offense has been on fire of late, and the pitching staff has been worse than expected.
Jordan Lyles has been the worst of the starting pitchers on this team of late. Lyles appears to still be injured. He is struggling badly with his control. Lyles is also giving up a lot of very hard hit balls in play.
Jake Arrieta is pitching injured. He isn't getting many swinging strikes at all, and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. The Phillies bullpen has the worst FIP in the majors in the last 30 days.
A temperature of 91 degrees and wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph helps too.
Take the over.
|07-18-19||Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5||6-7||Loss||-115||9 h 27 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Phillies game on Wednesday night ended around 1:45 am after a long rain delay turned it into a very long night for both teams. This is a really quick turnaround.
There is no set rule that quick turnaround games are going to be low scoring by any means, but I lean under in these circumstances. Why? Many coaches will sit out key players from their lineups. Dave Roberts regularly does this on get away day games to start with, so I would expect one or two Dodgers regulars to be out of the lineup here. A get away afternoon game on a Thursday is an under lean, and in this case with the short turnaround I believe it makes the situation stronger.
Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in all of baseball. He is a strike caller who always has one of the highest called strike percentages and strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the majors.
Aaron Nola has allowed only in 35 and 2/3 innings pitched in his last five starts. Nola is a really streaky pitcher, and when he is on he can be lights out. The Dodgers lineup is excellent, but Nola has tremendous stuff. Nola has been working deep into the game which is helpful since we'd like to limit how much of the Phillies bullpen we see here.
Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher who threw the ball really well in his last start.
The under is 6-1-1 in Stripling's last 8 starts.
Take the under.
|07-17-19||Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 10.5||7-2||Loss||-115||5 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers have the deepest lineup in the National League. The Dodgers are on fire of late. They have scored 42 runs in their last four games. This team has a lot of power, and they are especially good against right handed pitching.
The Phillies offense has been streaky, but they have a lot of potential. They are up against Kenta Maeda here. Maeda has been amazing at home this year, but he has struggled in a big way on the road. Maeda has a 2.26 ERA and a .230 weighted on base average allowed at home. Maeda has an ugly 5.44 ERA and a .323 wOBA allowed on the road.
Nick Pivetta comes into this one in really bad form. He has had a FIP of 6.92 or higher in four of his last five starts. You don't want to go into a matchup with the Dodgers with those kind of recent statistics.
The Phillies bullpen has the single worst FIP of any bullpen in the majors in the last 30 days. The Dodgers middle relief can sometimes be an issue.
With a hot temperature and winds blowing out, I think there will be a lot of runs scored here.
Take the over.
|07-16-19||Reds v. Cubs OVER 10||3-4||Loss||-114||8 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. He has a major home run problem. DeSclafani is giving up nearly 2 home runs every nine innings. Wrigley Field is a good hitters ballpark with the warm weather we are currently seeing in the midwest. The Cubs have plenty of power, and they are very patient. Chicago is likely to have traffic on the bases here, so if they get a blast or two it could be big for the total in this one.
Alec Mills had a 4.73 ERA and a 5.32 FIP in Triple A this year. Mills also gives up a lot of home runs and hard contact. He doesn't have any pitches that are all that impressive, and I think he is a guy who will struggle to stay in the big leagues.
The Reds offense has been much better in recent weeks. With Scooter Gennett healthy again and Yasiel Puig smashing the baseball, this offense has a much higher upside than they have shown for much of the season.
Manny Gonzalez is a good over umpire with a low strikeout/walk ratio, so that is helpful for the over.
Take the over here.
|07-15-19||Braves -101 v. Brewers||4-2||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Two teams headed in different directions right now. The Braves are 39-17 in their last 56 games. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5, and they are only a couple games above .500 now.
Atlanta has more depth in the lineup than any other team in the National League outside of the Dodgers. The Braves rank 8th in weighted on base average in the last 30 days.
Milwaukee ranks only 22nd in wOBA in the last 30 days. Several guys in this lineup have been ice cold of late.
The Brewers bullpen depth isn't good enough right now. Injuries have really weakened this unit. Josh Hader is great, but the rest of the bullpen is subpar. Atlanta's bullpen has been surprisingly strong in the last 30 days, and their numbers are significantly better than the Brewers bullpen.
Max Fried has been the victim of bad luck in recent starts. Opponents have had a batting average on balls in play of .500 or higher in his last two starts. Fried has had a FIP of 3.04 or lower in three of his last four starts.
Adrian Houser isn't really a starter and the long relief for Milwaukee is a major weakness.
At this price, I'll take the better team with the better offense and pitcher.
|07-14-19||Nationals +102 v. Phillies||3-4||Loss||-100||12 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have played some great baseball in the past few weeks after a brutal start to the season. Everyone knows by now that Washington's bullpen has let them down in a ton of games so far this year. They have improved numbers of late, and the Phillies bullpen has actually been worse in the last month than the Nats pen.
Washington is a whopping 25-9 in their last 34 contests. The Nationals offense is good, and their starting rotation is a good one as well. Anibal Sanchez isn't spectacular, but he is very good at inducing soft contact with his offspeed pitches. Sanchez ranked in the top 1% in exit velocity allowed last year. He is in the top 5% in that same category this year.
Jake Arrieta is dealing with bone spurs in his right elbow. Arrieta's statistics are worse across the board this year, and it doesn't come as any surprise that he isn't healthy. He'll pitch through this though, and he is in particularly bad form of late.
The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against a right handed pitcher. Washington is 16-5 in their last 21 vs. the NL East. Philadelphia is 5-13 in their last 18 vs. a right handed starter.
|07-13-19||Reds v. Rockies OVER 14||17-9||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cincinnati vs. Colorado Over* The Reds and rockies clash on Saturday night. This Over is a nice play for us.We get two starting pitchers who don't have overpowering stuff, which should lead them to a lot of struggles inside a hitters ballpark. The Rockies send out Kyle Freeland, who has been a mess as of late. Freeland owns an ERA of over 7 and has given up 15 runs over just his last 3 starts. Freeland owns a 9.31 ERA inside Coors Field this season. As for the Reds, Tanner Roark will get the ball. Reds pitching has struggled as a whole against the NL West. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings in such cases.
All signs point to the Over here.
Grab the Over on Saturday. Bet Over.
|07-07-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9||3-5||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies rank last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Colorado is putting up video game numbers on offense at home, but they are struggling a lot away from Coors Field.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been elite against lefties, but they have been average to slightly below average against right handed pitching.
German Marquez has a great track record on the road. Marquez has a 0.876 WHIP on the road this year.
Alex Young has good swing and miss stuff and the Rockies have a lot of free swingers in their lineup.
Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors. He is a definite positive for the under.
Take the under here.
|07-06-19||Rockies -101 v. Diamondbacks||2-4||Loss||-101||19 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have Jon Gray starting here. Gray has loads of potential, and he has pitched better so far this year. Gray has a FIP of 2.87 or lower in three straight starts. He has thrown the ball really well against Arizona so far this year. Without David Peralta, the DBacks are missing a key piece in the middle of the order.
Arizona is elite against lefties, but their weighted on base average is only 19th in the majors against right handed pitching.
Colorado excels against lefties, and this lineup has blasted Robbie Ray in the past. Ray struggles at Chase Field, and the Rockies should get scoring chances often again here. The Rockies have a whopping .445 weighted on base average against Ray in a big sample size of 186 at bats.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The DBacks are 0-5 in Ray's last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The Rockies are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts overall.
|07-06-19||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||3-1||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Kenta Maeda is an underrated starter. Maeda has been lights out at home this year. Maeda has allowed a .167 batting average at home, and opponents have an on base percentage of just .226 against him at Dodger Stadium.
The Padres rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They have done some damage against lefties, but they aren't all that good against right handers.
Maeda's average exit velocity allowed is just 84.8 mph this year, which is superb. Maeda is clearly good at inducing soft contact.
Chris Paddack is a good young pitcher who doesn't walk many batters. Paddack has several plus pitches, and he has a swinging strike rate of 11.2%.
The Padres rank first in the majors in bullpen SIERA this year, and the Dodgers are 10th. In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 3rd and the Padres rank 6th. These are two solid bullpens.
The under is 17-5 in Maeda's last 22 home starts.
Adam Hamari is behind the plate here, and he is definitely a strike caller.
Take the under.
|07-06-19||Orioles +135 v. Blue Jays||8-1||Win||135||12 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Orioles ML* Of course I know the Orioles are a terrible team. This isn't a play on Baltimore as it is a fade of Toronto. Clayton Richard is pitching and the Blue Jays are -145.
Clayton Richard has allowed an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph this year, when is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors. He has allowed 52.8% of batted balls to be hard hit compared to Baseball Savant. That's a brutal percentage. Richard isn't any good, and the Orioles lineup is better against lefties than righties.
Andrew Cashner has been a bit better this year. Cashner has allowed only a .184 batting average against this Toronto lineup in his career as well. Cashner isn't good, but he is better than Richard.
The Blue Jays are 19-42 in their last 61 games. Richard is one of the worst starters in the majors. In a game I see as a 50/50 type game, I'll take the underdog.
|07-05-19||Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5||4-1||Loss||-104||7 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total. The Baltimore Orioles have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total.
Toronto ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Baltimore ranks sixth in the last 14 days.
Dylan Bundy and Aaron Sanchez have been disappointing this year. Bundy is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings, which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Sanchez is walking almost as many batters as he is striking out. Sanchez is allowing the hardest contact of his career so far.
The Orioles bullpen ranks dead last in FIP for the season. The Blue Jays rank 23rd in that same statistic.
Rogers Centre pretty easily ranks first in park factor for home runs, meaning it has been highly conducive to home runs. With two bad SP's and bad bullpens, I like this to be high scoring.
Take the over.
|07-04-19||Twins -128 v. A's||2-7||Loss||-128||13 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios has been able to improve a lot in his last couple years in the majors. He has a really high upside. Berrios still isn't as good on the road as he is at home, but he has improved a lot on the road compared to a couple years ago.
Berrios has a 2.89 ERA on the year. He is only allowing 31.2% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Baseball Savant. That is even better than his number from last year. His control has improved a lot as well.
Tanner Anderson starts for the A's, and I just don't trust him. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA and a terrible 7.39 FIP in Triple A. Anderson has a 7.13 ERA and a 5.31 FIP so far this year in the majors. He is giving up some extremely hard contact, and he allows a lot of fly balls.
The Twins offense easily ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Minnesota should get plenty of scoring chances against Anderson.
Oakland is 0-4 in Anderson's last 4 starts.
|07-03-19||Astros v. Rockies OVER 13.5||4-2||Loss||-105||18 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this total is far higher than I would usually play an over at, but the baseball is clearly juiced this year and Coors Field is a hitters paradise this time of the year.
The forecast calls for 90 degrees and the wind blowing out by about 6 mph here. It has been warm the last few weeks at Coors Field, and how have things gone? Eight of the last nine games played here have finished at 15 runs or more.
Now, we see two very flawed starting pitchers show up. Wade Miley is due for regression. The Rockies have pounded left handed pitching in recent weeks.
Peter Lambert is giving up tons of hard contact, and the Astros are finally healthy on offense once again.
Look for a lot of runs from both teams.
Take the over.
|07-03-19||Brewers v. Reds -130||0-3||Win||100||16 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Jhoulys Chacin is a fade candidate for me. Chacin has struggled all season long. Even in his last start where his numbers look good, he was fortunate to strand 100% of runners on base in that game. Chacin's command isn't there right now.
The Reds have a career .371 weighted on base average against Chacin. This Reds lineup is better than they have shown so far this year, and I expect improvement in the coming months.
Sonny Gray has thrown it pretty well this year. Gray has very good stuff, and he is pitching with more confidence right now.
The Brewers are 0-7 in Chacin's last 7 road starts. The Reds are 7-0 in Gray's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.
|07-03-19||Tigers v. White Sox -128||5-7||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML in Game 1 of the Doubleheader on Wednesday* Dylan Cease has been called up to make his MLB debut here. Cease is a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. He throws upper 90's with ease and has nasty secondary pitches as well. Cease will go against a Detroit team that has an awful .287 on base percentage against right handed pitching this year. That is 10 points worse than the second worst team in the majors.
Daniel Norris is battling multiple injuries right now. Norris has a finger injury and has been dealing with a groin injury as well. Norris is 0-6 with a 5.29 ERA in his last nine starts. While the White Sox don't have a great offense, they are much better against left handed pitching than right handers.
The Tigers are 6-21 in Norris' last 27 starts. The White Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
Take the White Sox in game one on Wednesday.
|07-02-19||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5||4-5||Loss||-115||19 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a whopping 34-9 at home this year. The Dodgers are the best team in the National League right now, and it isn't close. I'm not saying something couldn't change between now and the playoffs, but the Dodgers are an excellent team.
The Dodgers have so much versatility in the field. The depth they have is amazing. The starting rotation is really deep as well. Ross Stripling would be a number two starter for some teams in the majors, but he doesn't regularly get starts for this team. Stripling has very good control and usually works from ahead in the count.
Taylor Clarke is a guy I'm looking to fade. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA and a 5.91 FIP in Triple A this year. Since coming to the big leagues, Clarke has put up a 6.10 ERA and a 6.04 FIP. Clarke did pick up the win in his last start against the Dodgers, but that was a misleading start. Clarke had a 6.40 FIP and 6.13 xFIP in that contest. How bad has Clarke been of late? He has a FIP over 6 in five of his last six starts.
The DBacks have a mediocre .312 wOBA against right handed pitching. They are elite against lefties, but they will see a solid right hander in this one.
In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen has been a top ten bullpen in the majors, while the Dbacks bullpen has been a bottom ten bullpen.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|06-30-19||Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 8||5-3||Push||0||15 h 4 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Cardinals offense has been terrible of late. Marcell Ozuna being out certainly hasn't helped, and many guys in this lineup are being too aggressive right now.
The Padres have had some offensive explosions of late, but a lot of those have come against left handed pitching. They are a top 10 offense against lefties and a bottom 10 offense against right handed pitching.
Miles Mikolas has pitched really well of late after a slow start to the season. Mikolas has a 3.18 FIP or lower in six of his last ten starts. Mikolas excels at inducing soft contact.
Joey Lucchesi is getting more swinging strikes this year, and he has managed to get much weaker contact from opposing hitters despite the juiced baseballs this year.
Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire.
Take the under.
|06-30-19||Cubs v. Reds OVER 10||6-8||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester starts here for the Chicago Cubs. Lester's overall numbers look pretty good, but under the surface there are definitely signs of problems. Lester is allowing way more hard hit batted balls than he ever has before. He has really struggled on the road this year as well. The Reds lineup has had a lot of success against him in a large sample size. Cincinnati has a .351 weighted on base average against Lester.
Anthony DeSclafani is a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. He has had major home run issues the last couple years. Where are those issues usually worse? At home, since he plays his home games at Great American Ballpark. Desclafani is giving up as many hard hit balls as anyone in the majors this year.
The forecast calls for 90 degrees and a 7-8 mph breeze toward center field. That's a clear plus here.
The Cubs are great against right handed pitching. The Reds have struggled badly against right handers this year, but they are 15th in wOBA against lefties.
Alan Porter is the umpire behind the plate here. The over is 13-2 in his last 15 games behind the dish.
Take the over.
|06-29-19||Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5||6-0||Loss||-105||17 h 33 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have a top ten offense. What are the Cubs really good at doing? This Cubs lineup is great at drawing walks. They are easily first in the majors in walk rate. They can make a starting pitcher work and take advantage of a pitcher who is having control issues.
Luis Castillo is a really talented pitcher, but something is off with him of late. Castillo has walked 21 batters in his last 27 innings. Now, he must face a Cubs lineup which excels at this skill.
Jose Quintana has struggled this year. Quintana's curveball isn't as reliable as it was a couple years ago. Quintana has been struggling with control of late as well.
The Reds lineup has been a disappointment this year, but I think they will improve the rest of the way. Joey Votto has really heated up, and now Scooter Gennett is back from injury finally. Gennett is an important part of his lineup.
Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is tough on pitchers. This is an over umpire who doesn't give the corners as much as the average umpire.
A temperature of 91 degrees with winds blowing out at nearly 10 mph at Great American Ballpark is a big help.
Take the over.
|06-29-19||Braves v. Mets OVER 9.5||5-4||Loss||-105||17 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is tremendous. The depth of their lineup isn't matched by many teams, especially not in the National League. Atlanta is fifth in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. In the last 30 days, the Braves rank number one in wOBA. This lineup is really dangerous.
The Mets are 10th in wOBA in the last 30 days. New York has had a lot of pitching meltdowns and bullpen woes lately, but their hitting has been good.
Steven Matz has the worst advanced metrics of his career. He has been very inconsistent this year. While he is capable of throwing it really well, he can also give up 8 or 9 runs.
Julio Teheran has a 3.99 ERA, but his SIERA of 5.21 suggests he is in line for some major regression. His hard hit batted ball rate is at the highest of his career.
The Braves lineup has a career wOBA of .366 against Matz. Teheran was just blasted by the Mets in his recent start against them.
A temperature of 91 degrees and winds blowing out are a big help.
Take the over.
|06-28-19||Pirates v. Brewers OVER 11||3-2||Loss||-100||8 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but the total is really high for a good reason. Chris Archer and Jhoulys Chacin have been absolutely terrible this year.
Archer has a 5.56 ERA and a 6.01 FIP on the season. A whopping 12.6% of batted balls against him have been barreled, so saying he has given up a bunch of hard hits is an understatement. Archer has been consistently bad as well. He has a individual game FIP of 4.35 or higher in ten straight starts.
Chacin has a 5.88 ERA and a 5.87 FIP. Chacin has allowed 43.8% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs (has never been above 39% before in his career). He is also walking 4.41 batters per nine innings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging 7.43 runs per game in their last 7 contests. Pittsburgh ranks second in wOBA in the last 14 days.
The Brewers have a top 10 offense in baseball, and they have lot of depth on offense.
Both bullpens have been disappointing. Josh Hader pitched two innings for the Brewers yesterday. Both bullpens have a bunch of injuries right now.
Take the over.
|06-26-19||Pirates v. Astros -1.5||14-2||Loss||-119||8 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 14th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching with a .320 wOBA. What about against lefties? The Pirates are awful against lefties. They sit in 28th with a wOBA of only .285.
Framber Valdez has very good stuff. His single biggest problem has been walks. The Pirates should be a good team for him to face since they are dead last in the majors in walk rate against lefties. They have a pathetic 4.4% walk rate against lefties. Valdez has great spin on his curveball and I think the Pirates will go after it more than most teams do.
Dario Agrazal is a middle of the road prospect for the Pirates. He has been mediocre in the minors, and there is nothing that suggests he would be all that good in the big leagues.
Houston's lineup has been great even without their stars, and now George Springer is back and healthy. McHugh is healthy and back to help in the bullpen as well.
The Astros have a big lineup advantage and a big bullpen advantage as well.
The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are 41-17 in their last 58 home games.
Take Houston -1.5.
|06-25-19||Dodgers -110 v. Diamondbacks||3-2||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball. They clearly look like the team to beat in the National League. The Dodgers lineup is excellent from top to bottom. The starting rotation is extremely deep. How deep? Ross Stripling lost his starting spot in the rotation, and he's a very good pitcher.
Stripling has a 3.08 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. Stripling makes the start here. He isn't likely to pitch really deep in the game, but the Dodgers bullpen has been better than the DBacks bullpen as well.
Robbie Ray has the potential to shut down any lineup when he is really on, but he has struggled badly at home. Ray also has poor control, and the Dodgers are very good at drawing walks. They should make him work tonight. Ray's home ERA is 4.15 in the last three years. His WHIP is a high 1.37.
At this price, I have to invest in the Dodgers tonight. The DBacks are much better against left handed pitching than right handers, and the Dodgers lineup has an impressive .335 OBP against Ray in his career.
Take the Dodgers.
|06-23-19||Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5||3-6||Win||100||17 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* In the last 30 days, the Rockies and Dodgers have been hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average during that time. Who is second? The Los Angeles Dodgers. These are two top offenses. They both are deep offensively, and they have quite a bit of power.
Dodger Stadium is much more friendly to hitters during day games. With a breeze blowing out at about 8 mph for this one the weather will be a positive.
Paul Emmel is one of the better over umpires in the league, and he can really make it tough on the starting pitcher.
Antonio Senzatela's numbers are the worst they've been in his career so far this season. Senzatels is getting less than 7% swinging strikes, and he is giving up more hard contact. That's a recipe for disaster against this strong Dodgers lineup.
Kenta Maeda is inconsistent and the Dodgers middle relief has been a weakness all season.
Take the over.
|06-22-19||Reds -103 v. Brewers||5-6||Loss||-103||14 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Luis Castillo has elite stuff. He isn't quite in the superstar category yet, but he is a top 20 starting pitcher in the majors. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo gets a bunch of swings and misses, and he allows only a 85.3 mph batted ball average. Castillo is a rare pitcher who gets a bunch of swings and misses and induces very soft contact.
Jhoulys Chacin isn't good. Chacin has a 5.60 ERA and a 5.75 FIP on the year. He is allowing by far the hardest contact of his career. Chacin often gets behind in the count and that really hurts him.
The Reds are better than they looked earlier this year. With Votto, Puig, and Winker swinging the bat much better of late, this is a team that is capable of making a little noise. The Reds have a top five pitching staff (starters and bullpen combined) in the majors.
The Brewers are 0-5 in Chacin's last 5 starts. They are at a severe starting pitching disadvantage here, and I don't think that is reflected enough in the line here.
|06-22-19||Rays v. A's UNDER 9||2-4||Win||100||4 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They have definitely cooled off offensively.
Oakland ranks right in the middle of the pack offensively. The A's aren't as good offensively at home, because their home park is very tough on hitters.
Neither of these teams have been good at drawing walks of late. Jeremie Rehak is the umpire behind the plate for this one, and his numbers point to him being a clear positive for the under. Rehak ranks in the top five of all umpires in least walks per game. He also ranks in the top five for lowest OBP for the offenses. Rehak is a strike caller.
Mike Fiers knows how to pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Fiers had a 2.91 ERA with a 0.882 WHIP at home last year. So far this year, Fiers has a 2.47 ERA and a great 0.87 WHIP at home.
Chirinos is a pretty good pitcher as well. He has had a couple bad outings, but on the whole he has done well based on limiting hard contact.
The under is 31-14-1 in the Rays last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. The under is 5-2 in Fiers' last 7 home starts.
Take the under.
|06-21-19||Rays -109 v. A's||5-3||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Tanner Anderson had a 6.26 ERA and an awful 7.32 FIP in Triple A this year. In his two starts in the big leagues he has been decent, but I definitely don't trust him.
Tampa Bay say Anderson once already, and I think that definitely helps here. Anderson already proved he wasn't good in Triple A, and now he faces a solid Rays lineup for the second time. Tampa Bay should get quite a few scoring chances here.
Kittredge is the opener here for the Rays and he is likely to be followed by Beeks. Kittredge has been excellent in Triple A and he has swing and miss stuff. Beeks has a 2.73 ERA and a 2.94 FIP. Oakland has been good against lefties this year because they have a lot of good right handed bats, but Beeks has actually been better against right handed hitters than lefties so far this year.
Both bullpens imploded last night, but the Rays bullpen definitely has an edge for the season. Tampa Bay is 11th in SIERA as a bullpen unit. The A's rank 21st.
I definitely prefer Kittredge and Beeks compared to Anderson, and this line is pretty low.
Take Tampa Bay.
|06-20-19||Rays v. A's UNDER 8||4-5||Loss||-105||20 h 57 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas have both really impressed me this season. Morton has the highest swinging strike rate of his career. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He has proven himself to be an excellent starter.
Frankie Montas has a 2.85 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Montas has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.6% last year to 11.0% this year. Montas is also allowing softer contact this year.
The Rays and A's are middle of the pack offenses. Oakland has been great on the road on offense this year, but at home they have struggled. The same was true a year ago.
The Rays have played a lot of low scoring games against quality teams.
Both of these teams have top ten bullpens and I see this one being low scoring throughout.
The under is 36-17-2 in the Rays last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Take the under.
|06-20-19||Reds +135 v. Brewers||7-1||Win||135||19 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have been scuffling of late. The Reds have won four straight contests. The Reds are better than they showed earlier this season. With Joey Votto heating up a bit and Jesse Winker and Yasiel Puig finally swinging the bat well I would expect some improvement on offense for Cincinnati.
The Reds rank first in the majors in bullpen FIP. This is a deep bullpen that has an advantage over a banged up Milwaukee bullpen.
Tanner Roark has proven to be a nice pickup for the Reds. Roark's swinging strike rate is up, and he has done a pretty good job inducing soft contact.
Jimmy Nelson just came back from a long injury. Nelson has looked very bad against two terrible offenses in his first two starts. Nelson's velocity is down about 2 mph from two years ago, and he is giving up a lot of hard contact. He shouldn't be this big of a favorite against a mediocre team. I'll fade Nelson here.
|06-20-19||Mets v. Cubs OVER 9||4-7||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The weather isn't ideal at Wrigley Field for this one, but that is why the total is 9 at not higher.
Walker Lockett was called up from Triple A to make this start. I don't know why he was called up, but here he is. Lockett has been bad in Triple A for 3 straight seasons. How bad? He has a FIP of almost exactly 5 in Triple A. Also, Lockett is striking out only 3.28 batters per nine innings in Triple A. Wow. Lockett's numbers project as a guy who will struggle in a big way in the majors.
Tyler Chatwood gets a spot start for the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks injured right now. Chatwood was terrible as a starter last year. While he will occasionally throw a good game, Chatwood is far too wild. His inability to find the strike zone generally gets him in big trouble. Chatwood had more walks than strikeouts last year. He has a better ERA than last year, but his advanced numbers aren't much different than last season.
The Cubs have a top five offense against right handed pitching. The Mets are 10th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.
Take the over.
|06-20-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||6-4||Win||100||13 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors at .371. Blackmon has been the hottest hitter in baseball. This Rockies lineup has tremendous numbers against Robbie Ray as well. The Rockies have a .442 wOBA in a pretty large sample size against Ray. They have actually hit him even better at Chase Field than Coors Field.
Jeff Hoffman was really bad in Triple A earlier this year. He has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him at all. Hoffman is up against an underrated offense. The emergence of Ketel Marte as a star has really helped the Diamondbacks this season. Hoffman had an ERA of 7.57 in 7 appearances in Triple A earlier this year. He isn't the answer.
John Tumpane is behind home plate and he is one of the better over umpires in baseball.
Trevor Story is likely to miss this game, but that is more than factored in here with a total of only 9.
The over is 30-13-1 in Ray's last 44 home starts.
Take the over.
|06-19-19||White Sox +135 v. Cubs||3-7||Loss||-100||18 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* This is too good of a price for me to pass up the White Sox with Giolito on the mound.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a grand total of six runs in his last eight starts. Giolito has been mowing down hitters. He has thrown a lot more of his offspeed pitches this year, and that has led to a lot more success. Hitters were blasting his fastball in past seasons. Giolito has a 2.22 ERA, and his FIP is 2.71.
Jon Lester started the season very well, but he has struggled a lot in recent weeks. Lester is allowing a lot more hard contact this year. Lester faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 13th in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching.
The White Sox have been competitive this year, and they clearly have the better starting pitcher going here.
I'll grab the big price.
Take the White Sox.
|06-19-19||Mets v. Braves OVER 9.5||2-7||Loss||-108||17 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties.
Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.
The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.
The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the over.
|06-18-19||Red Sox -114 v. Twins||3-4||Loss||-114||18 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Michael Pineda isn't a guy I trust against a really good Boston Red Sox lineup. Boston can struggle against lefties, but they are elite against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are clearly a top 5 offense in the majors against right handed pitching.
Michael Pineda still struggles with giving up the long ball far too often. He is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings pitched. The Red Sox have plenty of power, and they can spoil good pitches and make a pitcher work. Pineda is allowing more than 43% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs.
The Twins have beaten up on a weak schedule this year. They are now exactly .500 on the season against teams with a record above .500. Minnesota is a good team, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate.
David Price is coming off a really bad start, but he has been very good overall this year. Price had three gems in a row before this last poor start.
The Red Sox are 67-30 in their last 97 road games against a right handed starter. They are 21-7 in Price's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
|06-18-19||Mets v. Braves +110||10-2||Loss||-100||18 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I don't like to make a habit of betting against Jacob Degrom, but I have to take the Atlanta Braves at plus money here.
The Braves are as hot as anyone in baseball. I underrated this team prior to the season. I knew the offense could be good, but they are far better than I expected. How good have they been of late? Atlanta has a ridiculous .392 weighted on base average (wOBA). Second best in the majors during that time sits at .364 wOBA.
Atlanta's red hot run also comes as their bullpen has pitched much better of late. They have been a top ten bullpen in the last month, and the Mets have been a bottom ten bullpen.
Jacob Degrom has been very good this year, but he hasn't been on the level he was last year. Degrom has a 3.12 FIP this year compared to 1.99 a year ago.
Julio Teheran has been pitching great of late. Teheran has eight straight starts where he has allowed 1 earned run or less.
The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Mets are 0-5 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. A combined 22-1 angle.
|06-16-19||Rangers +158 v. Reds||3-11||Loss||-100||11 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Cincinnati Reds have talent, but they are a banged up team and they are finding ways to lose games right now. Scooter Gennett has been out all year, and they really miss him. Nick Senzel may miss this game after taking a foul ball to the eye last night and getting stitches. Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig haven't produced the way they were expected to this season so far.
The Texas Rangers come into this game feeling awfully good about themselves. The Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 games. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Ariel Jurado has been better than expected this year, and the bullpen has been much improved in the past few weeks.
Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher, but the Reds have plenty of flaws and this is a huge price for them to be laying.
Taking average AL teams and backing them in interleague play has been a great angle in the last decade. The Rangers fit that angle here. The Reds are 29-63 in their last 92 interleague games. The Reds are 5-21 in their last 26 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.
|06-16-19||Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5||5-15||Win||100||2 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The wind is blowing out at about 10 or 11 mph in Washington. This is a park where the wind blowing out makes a big difference. We saw how big of a difference that can make on Saturday when the ball was flying extremely well.
Archie Bradley isn't a guy I trust, and he now starts. Godley will throw behind him, and he has been in bad form. The Nats offense has heated up a lot of late.
Anibal Sanchez has been solid lately, but he has faced some weaker offenses. I don't think he is nearly as good as he has looked recently.
Favorable conditions and two offenses swinging the bat well.
Take the over.
|06-16-19||Angels v. Rays UNDER 8.5||5-6||Loss||-105||1 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong "opener" going here in Stanek. He fits this role very well. Jalen Beeks has been throwing it really well also and he is the pitcher who will come in after Stanek.
Griffin Canning looks like a good big league pitcher. He has a nice arsenal of pitches at his disposal and he can limit hard contact.
In 10 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 12 games, the total has finished at 8 or lower.
Take the under here.
|06-15-19||Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5||10-3||Loss||-109||12 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals have Stephen Strasburg on the mound on Saturday. Strasburg has been excellent all year. He has a good 3.36 ERA, but his FIP of 2.77 suggests he is even better than that. Strasburg appears to have some positive regression coming. According to Baseball Savant, Strasburg is allowing the smallest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that has has in the past five seasons. He is at a career high in swinging strikes as well.
The Diamondbacks offense has been great against left handed pitching and only mediocre against right handed pitching.
Taylor Clarke isn't a good pitcher. He had a 4.03 ERA in Triple A last year, and in Triple A this year he had 7.22 ERA. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and he gives up a lot of hard contact on fly balls.
The weather here calls for warm weather and winds blowing out 10-15 mph. Strasburg has been good at suppressing home runs, and the Nationals have been playing better of late.
Take Washington -1.5.
|06-14-19||Cubs v. Dodgers -126||3-5||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 26-7 at home this year. The Dodgers have what I believe is the best roster in the National League. It is going to be rare to see them at a price like this.
The Chicago Cubs have played well this year, but I don't see them as on the same level as the Dodgers. The Cubs are only 14-19 on the road this year. Chicago has some stars in the lineup, but they aren't as deep as the Dodgers are offensively.
Rich Hill has been tremendous of late. Hill has allowed an average exit velocity of only 83.5 mph this year, which is in the top 2% of all pitchers in the big leagues. Hill has allowed 2 runs or less in five straight starts.
Kyle Hendricks is a solid pitcher, but the Dodgers have the best on base percentage against right handed pitching of any team in the majors (.350).
The Dodgers are a whopping 41-13 in their last 54 home games. They are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Take the Dodgers.
|06-12-19||Brewers v. Astros -124||6-3||Loss||-124||17 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander in this one. Verlander has been tremendous yet again this year. Verlander has 14 starts, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of those 14 starts. Verlander has a 2.40 ERA on the season. His swinging strike rate is at the highest of his illustrious career.
Brandon Woodruff is a good pitcher with a lot of potential, but he has had several blowups this season as well. He is clearly less consistent than is Verlander.
The Brewers have a solid bullpen, but this is a bullpen with injury concerns and some depth issues. Houston has arguably the best bullpen in baseball, so the clear advantage here goes to Houston.
This price has dropped significantly, and I can't pass up taking such a great team with Verlander on the mound at this number.
Houston is 43-18 in Verlander's last 61 starts. They are 68-28 in their last 96 home games against a right handed starter. The Brewers are 1-8 in their last 9 interleague road games.
|06-11-19||Brewers v. Astros UNDER 9||8-10||Loss||-115||18 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. Peacock has started 11 games for the Astros this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 11 starts so far this year. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of those starts. Peacock has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a FIP of less than 1.00 in four of his last six starts. This is a guy who can miss bats, and I really like his form of late.
Freddy Peralta is far more inconsistent than Peacock. Peralta is capable of throwing an absolute gem. He's also capable of getting hit around. I'll take my chances here largely because of the Astros injury issues. Without Correa, Springer, and Altuve this Astros offense isn't even close to as good. Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 contests.
These are two excellent bullpens. When I see a total of 9 or higher with two very good bullpens I'm typically looking toward the under.
The under is 17-7 in the Astros last 24 games.
Take the under.
|06-10-19||A's v. Rays -1.5||2-6||Win||105||8 h 29 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays have been excellent against right handed pitching this year. They rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Athletics are only 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching.
We have a pitching mismatch here. Tanner Anderson starts for Oakland. Anderson has never started a game in the majors. In fact, he hasn't even started a game in the minors since 2017. Anderson has been terrible at Triple A this year. He has a 6.26 ERA and a whopping 7.27 FIP. Anderson doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and the Rays should be able to get to him.
Charlie Morton has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.69 FIP so far this year. Morton is striking out 11.02 batters per nine innings. His average exit velocity allowed is only 86.1 mph too, so he isn't giving up much hard contact.
The A's played a doubleheader on Saturday. Oakland also had major travel troubles last night. The A's weren't able to get to Tampa until very late. This is a very tough spot for the A's.
The Rays have covered the run line in 36 of their 40 wins this year.
Take Tampa Bay -1.5.
|06-09-19||Diamondbacks -127 v. Blue Jays||8-2||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. Ray is an interesting pitcher who can really miss bats, but can also get hit hard on some occasions. Overall, he's a good pitcher, and he is up against a Blue Jays lineup that isn't any good. The Blue Jays are a bottom five offense in baseball. Toronto doesn't pick up many walks and they swing at a lot of balls outside the strike zone. That plays into Ray's strengths.
Clayton Richard has only started three games, but he hasn't been impressive. He has the same amount of walks that he has strikeouts. He is nearly 36 years old and is clearly near the end of his career. Richard has a 3.55 ERA, but a 6.15 FIP and a 6.03 SIERA this year. He has been very fortunate.
The Diamondbacks offense ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Arizona should be able to create quite a few scoring chances here.
The Blue Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball, and I'll fade them in this spot.
|06-08-19||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9||2-0||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* In the last 30 days, the Chicago White Sox rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Kansas City Royals rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA during that time. Neither of these teams are any good offensively.
Lucas Giolito has been lights out of late. Giolito had been a very highly touted pitcher, but he had some pitches that were getting blasted. Giolito has simplified things and is using an improved changeup to get a lot more swings and misses. Giolito had a 8.3% swinging strike rate last year. His swinging strike rate is a whopping 13.3% so far this year.
Brad Keller is a mediocre pitcher, but he is facing a very weak lineup here. Keller has had a lot of success against them in the past. The White Sox have only a .267 wOBA against Keller in 126 AB's.
Giolito has dominated the Royals too. Kansas City has only a .238 wOBA against Giolito in 92 AB's.
The wind will be blowing in about 8 mph here which helps too.
The under is 6-0 in Giolito's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Keller's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Keller's last 4 starts vs. the White Sox. A combined 24-0 angle.
Take the under.
|06-07-19||Yankees v. Indians UNDER 9||2-5||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees meet the Cleveland Indians tonight in Cleveland. The weather can play a pretty big role in how things go at Progressive Field. With the breeze coming in from right field tonight at about 12 mph throughout this game, it is a big help to the pitching staffs.
German is a solid starter for the Yankees. He has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.82 SIERA. German has an impressive 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Indians swing and miss a lot, and I think he matches up pretty well here.
Plesac starts for the Indians, and he has been great in his first two starts. He can't keep pitching as well as he did in those two games, but he has excellent control and the conditions are favorable tonight.
These two bullpens are excellent. The Indians are a top five bullpen in baseball, and the Yankees are a top three bullpen in the majors.
Take the under.
|06-06-19||Orioles v. Rangers OVER 11||3-4||Loss||-106||10 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* David Hess is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Hess has a 7.36 ERA so far this year, and his FIP is is 7.10 so this hasn't just been about bad luck. Hess allows all kinds of very hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is 91.6 mph. Batters have barreled up Hess on 15.3% of batted balls. In this kind of a sample size, I believe this is the worst I've ever seen from a big league starter. Hess isn't fooling anyone.
Ariel Jurado starts here for the Rangers. Jurado has a solid 2.80 ERA, but his FIP is 3.80 and his SIERA is all the way down at 4.23. Jurado is allowing a BABIP of only .272. That won't continue. He will also give up more home runs than he has thus far.
Both of these bullpens are really bad, and they are both likely to be in the game for quite a while with this matchup of starting pitchers.
The wind is blowing out at about 8 mph and the game time temperature will be about 90 degrees. That is definitely a plus for the over.
Take the over in this one.
|06-05-19||Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5||7-9||Win||100||4 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense started the season out in terrible fashion, but they have been respectable of late. Cleveland is 26th in wOBA for the year, but they are 17th in the last 30 days. The Twins are first in the majors in wOBA for the year and 1st in the last 30 days as well.
The Indians are going with a bullpen game as far as the pitching lineup. This Twins offense is tremendous and I don't think the Indians have enough bullpen depth to keep them quiet.
The wind is also forecast to be blowing out at about 8 mph here.
Take the over.
|06-04-19||Reds -115 v. Cardinals||4-1||Win||100||19 h 16 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Reds ML* The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo here. Castillo had one really bad start in Milwaukee, but overall he has been brilliant this year. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in all of baseball. Castillo has a really impressive 14.6% swinging strike rate on the season. He is the rare combination of a guy who gets a very high swinging strike rate and can also induce soft contact. His average exit velocity allowed is only 85.0 mph, which ranks in the top six percent in the majors.
Genesis Cabrera didn't impress at all in Triple A this year, but he was called up to the big leagues because the Cardinals were banged up in the rotation. Cabrera had a 6.35 ERA and a 6.86 FIP in nine games in Triple A this year. He was hit hard in his first big league start against the Phillies as well.
The Reds season long offensive numbers are bad, but they rank 13th in wOBA in the last 30 days. With Joey Votto hitting the ball much better and Nick Senzel now leading things off, the Reds offense is better than most believe.
The Reds bullpen ranks in the top 5 in baseball in all major categories. With a big starting pitching advantage and a bullpen advantage, I'll take the road team here.
|06-02-19||Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||0-2||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have been better than expected this year. The emergence of Lucas Giolito as a very good starting pitcher has really helped this team. Giolito has always been a very highly touted pitcher. Now, he has backed off on the use of his curveball and it has really helped him a lot. Giolito has a 2.86 ERA and a 2.87 FIP on the season.
The Indians have a bottom ten offense in the majors. Cleveland is very inconsistent. The Indians aren't getting the production they need from Jose Ramirez, and this lineup lacks depth.
Plesac starts for the Indians here. He is a young pitcher who doesn't walk many people, and he wasn't intimidated by starting against a great Red Sox offense in Fenway in his first start. That was impressive.
The White Sox offense has scored 4 runs or less in 14 games since May 14. This is one of the 3 or 4 weakest offenses in the majors.
Giolito has allowed a total of 8 runs in his last 7 starts and both offenses have struggled. Sunday has been the best day for unders in MLB by a wide margin.
Take the under.
|06-01-19||Astros v. A's UNDER 8||5-1||Win||100||19 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He isn't as good as his ERA so far this season would indicate. There is some regression coming, but he is still going to be very good. In fact, his swinging strike rate is at 15.3% which is elite. Verlander is still fooling a lot of hitters.
Brett Anderson is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has thrown the ball well of late. Anderson is streaky and he has a chance here against an Astros lineup that is badly banged up. The Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average, but they are only 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. They are without Altuve, Springer, and Correa.
The A's bullpen is a top 10 bullpen in the majors. The Astros bullpen is probably the best bullpen in all of baseball.
Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are likely to play in quite a few low scoring games without their offensive stars.
Take the under.
|05-31-19||Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5||3-2||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics rank 15th in weighted on base average. They are without Khris Davis which definitely hurts their offense.
The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in wOBA, but their offense is severely shorthanded right now. The Astros are without Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. That is 3 of their top 4 hitters who are out right now.
Mike Fiers isn't a great pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home. This is clearly a pitchers park, and he has been able to use that to his advantage. Fiers had a 2.81 ERA last year at home and he has a 2.67 ERA at home so far this season.
Brad Peacock is a guy who has good strikeout stuff. Peacock has multiple plus pitches, and I think he has a lot of upside.
The Astros rank 1st in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Athletics rank 7th. These are two quality bullpens.
Take the under.
|05-30-19||Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10.5||5-3||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Dakota Hudson has potential. He has been inconsistent, but as he has thrown his slider more often in recent outings his performance has improved quite a bit. After having a FIP of higher than 10 in three of his first four starts of the season, Hudson has improved drastically of late. Hudson has a FIP of 3.95 or lower in five of his last six starts.
Jerad Eickhoff has been solid this year. He isn't spectacular, but he can generally hold his own. Eickhoff is much better when pitching from ahead in the count.
Kerwin Danley is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He has called a whopping 65.99% of pitches a strike so far this year. Danley has been an under machine for the last few seasons. He should help both pitchers in this one.
This is a get away day game and that can usually mean a key hitter or two is out of the lineup.
The under is a whopping 48-22 in the Cardinals last 70 in game 3 of a series. Those are often get away days and the Cardinals sit out regulars pretty often in these spots.
This number has gotten too high for me to pass up.
Take the under.
|05-29-19||Rangers +123 v. Mariners||8-7||Win||123||1 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* This isn't so much a play on the Rangers as it is a fade of the Seattle Mariners as a -133 favorite with Wade LeBlanc on the mound.
The Seattle Mariners are 6-22 in their last 28 games. This is not a good team. Texas isn't a really good team either, but they are playing pretty well right now. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games.
Wade LeBlanc is near the end of his career, and he has been injured of late. Since his injury, he has looked terrible in two starts. LeBlanc is getting absolutely crashed. So far this year, a ridiculously high 14.1% of batted balls against him have been barreled. The average exit velocity he has allowed is 92.1 mph. That is among the bottom two percent of all pitchers in baseball. LeBlanc isn't fooling anyone.
Leclerc gets the start as the opener and then Smyly should be the primary pitcher for the Rangers here. Smyly has struggled so far this year, but he does have much higher upside potential than LeBlanc.
A price grab here going against a team that is struggling in a big way.
|05-28-19||Royals v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||3-4||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Their wOBA sits at a terrible .256 during that time. The White Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games.
Kansas City ranks 24th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Royals offense isn't as good as they looked earlier this year.
Lucas Giolito has been absolutely dealing for the White Sox this year. Giolito has a 2.77 ERA, and it isn't a fluke. He has a 2.81 FIP. His strikeout rate was 6.49 batters per nine innings last year, but he is striking out 10.21 batters per nine innings this year. Giolito is throwing harder than ever, and his slider and change up have been excellent. The Royals lineup has 9 hits in 73 at bats against Giolito.
Brad Keller isn't tremendous by any means, but he is a steady guy who the White Sox hitters have only a .186 average against. He can have trouble finding the strike zone, but the White Sox haven't been good at all at drawing walks.
The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games between these teams.
Take the under.
|05-27-19||Diamondbacks +102 v. Rockies||3-4||Loss||-100||12 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Colorado Rockies may well be without Charlie Blackmon again here. Manager Bud Black said on Sunday that there is a chance Blackmon might have to go on the 10 day injured list, which makes him seem at least somewhat doubtful for this game.
Zack Greinke has been dealing of late. Greinke has a 2.89 ERA on the year and his FIP is only 3.24. Greinke has allowed a grand total of 8 runs in his last seven starts. Greinke has had a FIP of 1.79 or lower in 5 of those last 7 starts. His highest FIP in any game in that seven game stretch is 3.96. He has been dialed in. While many other pitchers have horrible numbers at Coors Field, Greinke is 5-1 with a 4.21 ERA at Coors Field in his career.
Jon Gray is less consistent than Greinke. Gray is certainly capable of throwing the ball very well, but he hasn't been in great form of late. Gray has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last five starts. He has allowed much harder contact this year than Greinke as well. Gray's average exit velocity is a whopping 91.1 mph. Greinke's is only 86.3 mph.
The DBacks are 31-12 in Greinke's last 43 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|05-25-19||Braves -112 v. Cardinals||3-6||Loss||-112||18 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Mike Soroka has a sparkling 1.01 ERA on the year. His strand rate is 87.2% so there's no way he'll keep it going at this rate, but Soroka has some very impressive advanced metrics. According to Baseball Savant, he has allowed a hard hit batted ball only 32.2% of the time this year. He has great control and this Cardinals offense has definitely slumped of late. Soroka has started 7 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in six of those seven starts. He has been really consistent
Dakota Hudson has been very inconsistent this year. Hudson has terrible control. He is walking 4.21 batters per nine innings, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. The Braves lineup is very deep and they have been swinging it very well of late.
The Braves have a big starting pitching edge here, and they are the team playing much better baseball right now.
I think this price is too short.
|05-25-19||Padres -109 v. Blue Jays||19-4||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has played on just about every team in the majors at this point, and he is near the end of his big league career. Jackson isn't a good starter anymore. There is nothing in his statistics in the minors or the bigs so far this year to suggest he will have any success. He has very little control and doesn't miss enough bats.
Cal Quantrill does have a high ceiling, and he goes against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that isn't very good. Quantrill is backed by a top five bullpen, while the Blue Jays bullpen is mediocre.
The Blue Jays have had fortunate batted ball luck in at bats with runners in scoring position so far this year. The Padres are a much better team this year, and the oddsmakers have been underpricing them of late.
I'll fade Jackson at this short price. Toronto is 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
Take San Diego.
|05-24-19||Rays -129 v. Indians||1-3||Loss||-129||8 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Blake Snell was excellent last year, but he was helped by some clear luck. So far this year, Snell has been even better than a year ago, but has had worse luck. Snell is a clear ace who possesses the rare ability to make batters miss at a really high level and induce very soft contact.
Snell is carrying an amazing 19.2% swinging strike rate so far this year. Only 26.9% of batted balls against him have been categorized as hard hit by Fangraphs. He is striking out more than 13 batters per nine innings and his walk rate is down to 2.2 walks per nine innings.
Shane Bieber is a good pitcher, but he is a couple notches below Snell. Bieber is a high strikeout guy, but he gives up a lot of very hard contact. Bieber has allowed 42.4% of batted balls to be hard hit. Batters have barreled 11.9% of hits against Bieber, which is a very high rate compared to the major league average of around 8 or 8.5%.
The Rays bullpen is well rested, and they are deeper in the bullpen than the Indians. The Indians have had trouble hitting lefties the past few years. The Rays are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.
Take Tampa Bay.
|05-23-19||Marlins +155 v. Tigers||5-2||Win||155||10 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* This isn't a bet I'm excited to make, but I have to do it. The Detroit Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games. Detroit has lost 8 straight games overall. They haven't even been close either. The Tigers have been outscored by a combined score of 63-19 in those last eight games. How can this team be a huge favorite over anyone?
Matthew Boyd is a decent pitcher, but his trend is downward of late. In his first seven starts, only one had a FIP of 3.4 or higher. In his last three starts, he has a FIP of 3.75, 10.08, and 4.66. He's giving up more hard contact and he is giving up the long ball too often.
The Marlins bullpen isn't very good, but it is better than the Tigers bullpen. The Tigers have a bottom three or four bullpen in baseball.
The Marlins have played much better of late, and Trevor Richards is capable of throwing a good game. Detroit has a team batting average of .176 in the last 14 days.
A price grab here on a big underdog. Detroit can't lay this number.
|05-22-19||Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 8||1-8||Loss||-100||6 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers pitching staff has been amazing of late. The Dodgers pitching staff has a ridiculous 1.74 ERA over the last two weeks. Rich Hill threw the best he has all year in his last outing at Cincinnati. He threw a little harder than he had been, and he located his pitches very well.
The Rays offenses has come back to earth of late. They do have quite a few injuries, so that is part of the problem. Tampa Bay has scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last ten games.
Tampa Bay starts opener Ryan Stanek here and Chirinos is likely to follow him. Stanek has been great in the opener role. Chirinos has quality stuff and has thrown his best of late.
Bill Miller is the umpire here and he has the second highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years according to my umpire database. He's clearly a positive for the under.
Take the under here.
|05-22-19||Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5||9-11||Loss||-114||12 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds offense ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 27th against right handed pitching. With Joey Votto struggling right now, the Reds really need a lot of production from Yasiel Puig (injured and questionable/doubtful to start here) or someone like Scooter Gennett who is on the disabled list with an injury. The Reds won 3-0 last night, but they had only 4 hits in that game.
The Brewers offense is a good one, but they are up against a very good young pitcher in Luis Castillo. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA and a 2.62 FIP this year. Castillo won't keep a 1.90 ERA and he is due some regression, but only 28% of batted balls off Castillo have been hard hit this year. That's one of the lowest percentages of any starter in the majors, and he should continue to be a very good pitcher.
Zach Davies also limits hard contact, and he's up against a struggling Reds offense.
These are two strong bullpens and neither of them have been used all that much in recent days. Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate and he is a strike caller who should help the pitchers here.
The under is 7-0 in Castillo's last 7 road starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. an NL Central foe. The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 vs. an NL Central opponent. The under is 4-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 38-0 angle.
Take the under.