|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams UNDER 56.5||13-3||Win||100||16 h 6 m||Show|
*2 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will play to see who wins the Super Bowl on Sunday night. New England has been here all kinds of times, and this is the first trip for this Rams team.
The Rams have run the ball on more than 50% of their offensive plays in their last three games. Jared Goff has been shaky late in the season, and I expect the Rams to run the ball quite a bit in this game especially early on in the game.
The Patriots have transformed themselves into a team that runs the ball well behind a strong offensive line. There's no doubt New England has less elite weapons in the passing game now than they have had in the past, so it makes sense for them to make this change. They have multiple good running back options. I think they'll run the ball a lot in this one as well.
I think both teams will likely run the ball more and try to keep their defense off the field, which should result in some long drives that eat up a lot of clock.
The Rams defense has allowed less than 19 points per game in contests Aqib Talib has played. He has been a difference maker for this defense. The defensive line has played much better in their last few games as well. This Rams defense is very well coached by Wade Phillips.
New England's defense confused the Chiefs for much of the game in the AFC title game. I think they'll have some good schemes ready here as well.
Take the under.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 55.5||37-31||Win||100||65 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in week 6 of the regular season. The Patriots won that game 43-40. The scoring was rapid fire back and forth late in that game. Both teams were getting a bunch of big gainers.
Kansas City has the best offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has proven people wrong all year, and he has a good coaching staff putting him in great positions. It doesn't hurt to have guys like Hill, Kelce, and Watkins to throw the ball to either. The Chiefs offensive line is one of the two or three best in the NFL as well. Kansas City has been able to score on everyone this year. I don't think that changes here. The Patriots defense can't match the team speed of the Chiefs.
New England's offense has found a really solid running game late this year. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Chiefs have gotten gashed on several occasions. While the Patriots offense isn't elite, they do still have one of the best of all time at quarterback. They also have a great offensive coaching staff. This is a weak Kansas City defense they are up against.
Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace of play, so there should be plenty of snaps here.
The over is 8-1-1 in the Patriots last 10 playoff games. New England has scored 28 points or more in all but one of those games.
The weather doesn't look nearly as bad as it did earlier this year. Current forecasts call for temperatures in the mid 20's here, which is cold, but not brutal by any means. The winds are expected to be at only 5 or 6 mph.
Cold weather games have gone over in the NFL in the past. Games with a temperature of less than 30 degrees have gone 95-61 (60.9%) to the over. In the playoffs, the over is 20-11 in this weather. When the game is a non-divisional contest, the over is a whopping 67-30 (69.1%).
Look for both teams to score quite a few here.
Take the over.
|01-13-19||Eagles v. Saints OVER 51||14-20||Loss||-109||62 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints passing attack is capable of huge things. They weren't at their best down the stretch, but their numbers are much better in the Superdome than on the road and they are up against a very weakened Eagles secondary here.
Drew Brees is still a very reliable quarterback, and he still has a great offensive line in front of him. The Saints have multiple good weapons on the outside, and they also have a great running back in Kamara.
The Eagles secondary has been a problem late in the year with the significant amount of injuries. Philadelphia's secondary was exposed by Houston late in the year. The Bears weren't able to expose them, but the Saints are on the fast track and have many more weapons.
The Eagles offense has been playing better with Foles at quarterback, and the Saints defense gives up a lot of big plays. Philadelphia is a better offense with Sproles healthy. He isn't young, but he still has big play potential.
Both passing attacks have a significant advantage here, and this isn't that high of a total considering the situations.
The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 home playoff contests.
Take the over.
|01-06-19||Chargers +3 v. Ravens||23-17||Win||100||18 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Chargers* The Baltimore Ravens beat the Chargers a couple weeks ago on the road. The Chargers have been better on the road than at home though, and this Chargers team has much more balance than the Ravens.
Baltimore has gotten good play from Lamar Jackson, but he doesn't give the team much of a downfield passing threat at all. The Chargers do have a good defense, and I expect some adjustments from them in this one.
The Ravens defense is very good, but the Chargers offense ranked third in the NFL in yards per play, and now they are healthier than they have been. They'll be hard to keep down for an entire game.
Jackson has had several good games, but he did get to beat quite a few bad teams. The Chargers are a dangerous team and catching a full field goal here is a nice value.
Take the Chargers.
|12-30-18||Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5||31-0||Win||100||22 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in the final game of the regular season for each team. There are strong under trends in the long term in the final week of the season with bad teams. It is much stronger if the game isn't being played in a dome.
From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5.
The wind could be a bit of a factor here too. Steady winds of 13-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph are forecast for Green Bay on Sunday afternoon.
Detroit's offense has scored 17 points or less in four straight games. Stafford is playing banged up and they are without their star running back Kerryon Johnson.
Both pass rushes are much better than the offensive line, and that should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable.
Take the under.
|12-30-18||Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 39.5||17-42||Loss||-105||20 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo's offense has been woeful at best this year. Buffalo has scored 13 points or less nine times this year. Buffalo has a very conservative offense, and I wouldn't expect that to change much here.
Miami's offense has been really bad of late. Ryan Tannehill is banged up and the offensive line in front of him is shorthanded as well. They are without multiple top options on offense. The Dolphins scored just 7 points last week against Jacksonville. This Buffalo defense has been tremendous all year. The Dolphins didn't even get to 200 yards in their first game against Buffalo. Buffalo ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Both of these teams play slowly and the weather here calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That should keep things more conservative on the play calling front.
From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5.
This is a late season game that should be filled with some sloppy offense and a low scoring contest.
Take the under.
|12-23-18||Steelers v. Saints OVER 52.5||28-31||Win||100||23 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints haven't scored that many points in recent games, but these are still very good offenses. Pittsburgh throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are throwing the ball on 2/3 of their offensive plays.
The Steelers should be able to take advantage of the Saints secondary. Marshon Lattimore is very good, but the Saints don't have depth in the secondary. They have played some teams recent who haven't been able to take advantage of that weakness, but the Steelers should be able to.
What about Drew Brees and the Saints offense? They have too many weapons to be bad for too long. The Saints are back in the dome and they have put up big numbers here many times in the past.
This total has been pushed down because of recent results, but I see this as a recency bias situation.
Two teams who are very capable of scoring in bunches and scoring quickly on the fast track.
Take the over.
|12-23-18||Bucs v. Cowboys -6.5||20-27||Win||100||40 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Dallas* I was against the Dallas Cowboys last week when they lost 23-0 to the Colts. I'll be on them this weekend at home against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys were coming off a big win over the Eagles last week, and it was a major flat spot. That isn't the case now. There are a lot of quotes coming out of the locker room from Dallas that they were extremely embarrassed by their loss last week. They need to win one of their last two games, and this is their best chance to do it against a weak team and on their home turf.
The Tampa Bay defense has been surprisingly bad against the run this year, and that doesn't bode well for them against Ezekiel Elliot and this rushing attack. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom eight in the NFL in rushing defense. They haven't been able to get into the backfield very often. Dallas can mix in the play action passes more now to Amari Cooper as well, and the Tampa Bay secondary has been beaten deep often this year.
The Cowboys will probably have Sean Lee on the field here. The defense is really good without him, and it is excellent with him on the field.
Tampa Bay doesn't have anything to play, and the Cowboys have a lot they need to accomplish here. The Cowboys should be ready to go for this one.
|12-23-18||Vikings v. Lions UNDER 42.5||27-9||Win||100||33 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are looking to run the ball a lot more and have a more conservative offense under their new offensive coordinator. Minnesota is likely to play slower, and with a lot more runs it means a running clock which is clearly good for the under.
Detroit has been running the ball more lately as well. Why? Matt Stafford is banged up badly and is playing behind a very weak offensive line. Minnesota sacked him 10 times when these two teams met a few weeks ago! The Vikings will be in the backfield a lot again in this one.
Detroit has scored 17 points or less in each of their last four games. The Lions are without Kerryon Johnson and that hurts their efficiency in the running game significantly.
Both teams running it a lot and playing slower than the average NFL tempo. I expect a lower scoring game.
Take the under.
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 44.5||23-26||Loss||-109||39 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been a good under team at Levi's Stadium since it opened. The under is 23-14 in their home games since this stadium opened. Divisional home games are 10-4 to the under.
Seattle runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. The Seahawks are looking to control the ball and use up a lot of time on offense. It has been working very well.
San Francisco's defense is a very solid 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. The 49ers offense is certainly limited with so many injuries. Nick Mullens hasn't done a bad job, but he isn't dynamic by any means.
The weather here plays a big factor in my reason for taking this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts to 26 mph during the game. It also calls for rain which could be heavy at times. Rain and wind combined is a big positive for the under. Look for an even more conservative game plan from both teams here, and that helps the defenses know what is coming.
Take the under.
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||120 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Colts* The Indianapolis Colts have every reason to want to win this game. Indianapolis is hovering on the edge of the playoff race, and they have every chance to make the playoffs if they keep winning.
Dallas has essentially locked up the NFC East with their win over the Eagles in overtime last week and with the rest of the division simply falling apart as they have. Dallas is coming off an emotional win, and the Cowboys don't have nearly as much incentive to win this game as do the Colts. The Cowboys need to win just one more game, and they have three chances.
The strength of the Colts defense is their run defense. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Dallas is a run first team with Ezekiel Elliot.
The Colts once again have an elite quarterback under center with Andrew Luck playing very well right now. The team is starting to get healthier, and importantly the pass protection of the Colts is very good now. Luck should have plenty of time to throw, and the Cowboys secondary is only mediocre.
|12-16-18||Dolphins v. Vikings -7||17-41||Win||100||118 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Minnesota Vikings ATS* The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss on Monday night to the Seattle Seahawks. The Miami Dolphins are coming off an improbable last second win over the New England Patriots. Now, Minnesota is in a spot where they absolutely have to win, and they are clearly the better team.
Minnesota has an excellent defense. The Vikings rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Miami offensive line is a major weakness, and Ryan Tannehill still isn't 100 percent healthy. Expect the Vikings to get a lot of pressure on Tannehill here.
Minnesota's wide receivers are some of the best in the NFL. The Dolphins secondary is very weak. They rank as one of the three worst pass defenses in the NFL. Minnesota should be able to exploit that weakness.
The Vikings have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL this year according to Sagarin. The Dolphins have played the 30th toughest schedule in the NFL.
Miami isn't nearly as good as their record, and the Vikings are better than their record. The number is lower than it should be here because of the two teams recent play.
Minnesota has a strong home field advantage, and I expect a good performance in a must win game.
|12-16-18||Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5||12-20||Win||100||60 h 49 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have totally changed their offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson is under center and the Ravens are looking to run the ball as much as possible. Most NFL teams are throwing the ball more than 60% of the time, but the Ravens are running it about 65% of the time in their last three games. Gus Edwards is getting a bunch of carries, and that should be the case again here.
Tampa Bay's defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Bucs are far from a great defense, but they aren't as bad as they looked earlier this year. Tampa Bay is a little healthier on the defensive end now than they were earlier this year. Tampa Bay is 20th in yards per play allowed in their last three games compared to 31st for the season. The Bucs are also better at stopping the run than the pass.
Baltimore's defense is easily number one in the league so far this year. The Ravens excel at stopping the pass, and that's what Tampa Bay wants to do here. I don't see Winston and this Bucs offense having much success through the air. Tampa Bay has a really weak ground game as well.
The weather here could be very helpful. Winds of 10-12 mph with rain showers are expected in the game. That should make the offenses more conservative and predictable.
Take the under.
|12-16-18||Lions v. Bills -2.5||13-14||Loss||-106||36 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Buffalo* The Buffalo Bills have been strong defensively all year. Buffalo is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Buffalo's secondary is elite, and Detroit will have to try to throw it around. I don't think Detroit will have much success running without Kerryon Johnson healthy and with a banged up offensive line.
Detroit is such a banged up team right now. The offensive line is very banged up. Matt Stafford is still listed on the injury report with his back injury, and Stafford threw for less than 100 yards last week against Arizona. Ezekiel Ansah was easily the best pass rusher on this team, and not having him hurts this defense badly.
The Bills have an edge running the football here. Josh Allen has played better as the season has gone along.
Buffalo has outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents. The Lions have been outgained by 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Bills are playing better late in the year, and the Lions are limping to the finish.
Buffalo should be up for this game at home against a subpar defense. The Bills have played an extremely tough set of defenses this year. Finally, they get a weaker defense. The Bills are the much healthier team too.
|12-15-18||Browns v. Broncos UNDER 46||17-16||Win||100||43 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock.
Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude.
These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now.
Take the under.
|12-09-18||Rams -2.5 v. Bears||6-15||Loss||-115||20 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The LA Rams are one of the top three teams in the NFL. Are we really sure what the Chicago Bears are right now? According to Jeff Sagarin, the Bears have played the 30th toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year. The Rams have played the 11th toughest.
Chicago clearly has a very good defense. The Bears do rely on pressuring the quarterback though, because I don't see their secondary as elite. The Rams offensive line does a good job protecting Jared Goff. The Rams are without Kupp, but they still have good wide receivers who should be able to get open in Sean McVay's offense. He is clearly one of the best offensive minds in the game today. Todd Gurley is arguably the best running back in the NFL as well.
The Rams secondary has gotten better as the season has gone along. I don't trust Mitchell Trubisky to beat them consistently here. Trubisky is coming back from an injury and may be rusty.
The Rams have a huge special teams advantage in this one, and with the spread at this small of a number, that could be the difference between covering and not covering.
Much has been made of the Rams being a California team in the cold, and that narrative has made this price cheaper than it should be. It will be chilly on Sunday night, but there is almost no wind in the forecast.
I'll take the much better team laying the short price.
Take the Rams.
|12-09-18||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 44.5||23-29||Win||100||39 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Eagles offense is better than they were earlier this year. Darren Sproles is still good enough to make some big plays. Golden Tate is a key addition as well. Carson Wentz has more weapons to get the ball to, and with this game played on the fast track at Dallas I see the Eagles throwing for quite a few yards here. While Dallas is excellent against the run, they have been inconsistent against the pass this year.
Dallas is an elite running team with a star running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, the Eagles have a bottom five rushing defense in the NFL. Elliot should have a big day here. While the Cowboys passing game isn't very good, they are clearly better with Cooper on the outside, and they have some play action capability at this point.
It was 27-20 earlier this year when these two played. Both offenses are clearly better than they were earlier this season. This one is indoors as well which helps the over quite a bit.
Take the over here.
|12-09-18||Colts v. Texans OVER 50||24-21||Loss||-105||36 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Andrew Luck and the Colts offense was averaging 34 points per game in their previous eight games before being shut out last week. I wouldn't expect the Colts to have a dud of an offensive game two weeks in a row. This Texans defense is elite against the run, but they aren't very good against the pass. They have a multitude of injuries in the secondary right now as well, so an already questionable pass defense is even worse. Indianapolis plays at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NFL.
Houston's offense has been much better of late. Watson is looking more like the quarterback we saw last year, and the running game has improved. Houston ranks 8th in tempo, so they'll be pushing the pace as well. The Colts defense is at a disadvantage here against the pass. I don't believe they have enough depth in the secondary to prevent some big plays in the passing game.
The first meeting between these two was 31-31 before overtime. That game was in a dome and this is in a dome as well. We should see a lot of possessions based on the tempo of each team. I see two passing attacks who have an edge vs. the pass defenses.
Take the over.
|12-02-18||Cardinals v. Packers UNDER 44||Top||20-17||Win||100||42 h 26 m||Show|
*5 Star NFL TOP Total of the YEAR* The Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Arizona ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play. They have the worst passing attack and the worst running attack. Arizona's offensive line is weak, and Green Bay can really get after the passer.
Arizona isn't bad on defense. The Cardinals are 9th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. They still have a good amount of very talented players on the defensive end. Green Bay's offensive line has struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers, and I see Arizona making it difficult for them.
The weather here is very important. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 34 degrees and 20 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a chance of snow showers during the game (it is likely to be snowy in Green Bay Sunday before this game- and some snow during the game is at least possible). This is a huge plus for the under. It leads to more running and a much more conservative game plan.
Arizona shouldn't be able to score very many at all here. The Packers offense isn't what it once was, and Arizona's defense is better than most realize.
Take the under. TOP Total of the Year. *Be sure to still use wise bankroll management here- this is just a bigger play than most of mine* Thanks and good luck.
|12-02-18||Panthers -3 v. Bucs||17-24||Loss||-112||20 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Carolina ATS* The Carolina Panthers must win this game to stay in the playoff race. They know this isn't a game they can afford to lose. Carolina has found a tremendous weapon in McCaffrey out of the backfield both in the run and pass game. They still have Greg Olsen at tight end as well, and he is one of the best tight ends in the game. Cam Newton is playing much better than the did early in the season.
Carolina has lost three games in a row. Carolina should have won 2 of those 3 games. Ron Rivera has made some questionable decisions during those games, and they have had some untimely turnovers as well.
Tampa Bay is severely banged up. DeSean Jackson being out really hurts their passing attack, since he stretches the field as well as anyone in football. The Bucs defense is still really banged up. They are the worst pass defense in the NFL, and they are in the bottom ten in run defense as well. How are they going to even slow down Carolina? I don't think they will.
Carolina has a lot to play for here, and they are the much healthier team. I'll lay the points.
|12-02-18||Bears v. Giants UNDER 44||27-30||Loss||-105||12 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. Chicago is expected to have Chase Daniels under center. Daniels didn't look very good last week under center against Detroit, and the Lions defense is a weak one. I wouldn't count on big things from him here either.
The Giants offense is 11th in yards per play in the NFL, but the Bears rank 2nd in yards per play allowed. The Bears are 19th in yards per play on offense, but I expect the Giants to load the box and dare Daniels to beat them throwing the football.
Both of these teams move slowly. There won't be all that many possessions in this game. The Bears will be running the ball even more than normal, and the Giants want to run more often than they have so far this year as well.
I wouldn't expect many big plays here. Both defensive fronts have an advantage against the offensive line in front of them, and I think there will be more tackles for a loss here than in a normal contest.
Take the under.
|11-25-18||Dolphins v. Colts OVER 50.5||24-27||Win||100||121 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* With Ryan Tannehill getting back on the field for this one, I like the value on the over.
Andrew Luck and this Indianapolis Colts offense are firing on all cylinders right now. The Colts having a good offensive line and a good running back in Marlon Mack is making a huge difference. The Colts are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL right now as well. Miami's defense ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins are giving up 6.4 yards per play on the road.
The Colts defense is middle of the pack, but they have faced weaker offenses in many recent weeks. Miami does have speed and with Tannehill they have more big play ability.
Take the over.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||30-27||Loss||-115||12 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Carolina Panthers have an elite running game. Seattle's run defense has struggled for much of the season. Seattle ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed. Carolina is third in the NFL at 5.0 yards per carry on offense. KJ Wright being out is a big hit to this Seattle defense.
Carolina's defense is healthier than they were earlier this year. The Panthers have consistently been better at home on defense in the past few years. Seattle isn't the same team on the road either, and this is still a Seattle offensive line that struggles in pass protection.
Carolina has the special teams advantage here, and that shouldn't be overlooked.
The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 at home this year straight up. Carolina is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Carolina is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss.
Carolina needs this game after a couple losses in their last two. I expect them to bounce back with the help of a strong running game.
Take the Panthers.
|11-22-18||Falcons v. Saints OVER 59.5||17-31||Loss||-109||23 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have been putting up amazing offensive numbers this year. They have gotten better as the year goes along. Drew Brees is playing fantastic football right now, and his wideouts are excellent. It also helps that the Saints offensive line is tremendous in pass protection.
The Falcons rank 27th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Brees torched this Atlanta defense the first time they met, and I think he'll do it again here. The Falcons secondary is more banged up than it was the first time these two played this year.
Atlanta still has a very good passing attack, and the one weakness of this Saints team is their pass defense. New Orleans ranks 28th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Saints pass rush is below average as well. Matt Ryan should be able to have another big day. He threw for 5 touchdowns and no picks in the first meeting.
This is a high total, but today's NFL is quite a bit different than it was a few years ago. The offenses have the upper hand based on the rules.
This one is played on the fast track in New Orleans. I expect a high scoring contest.
Take the over.
|11-18-18||Vikings +3 v. Bears||20-25||Loss||-120||125 h 55 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Play on Vikings ATS* The Minnesota Vikings are clearly a top ten team in the NFL. Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Minnesota is coming off a bye week, and this is a critical game for them. Minnesota sits at 5-3-1 and just behind the 6-3 Chicago Bears in the NFC North.
Chicago has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. The Bears are also first in the NFL in turnover margin. There is at least some reason to believe that they have been fortunate to get to 6-3 this year. The Bears have been outgained in 4 games this season. On the other side, the Vikings have only been outgained in one contest this year.
The Minnesota offensive line has done a good job in pass protection this year, and that's important given the Bears strong pass rush. The Vikings pass rush ranks in the top five in the NFL, and Mitchell Trubisky isn't a quarterback I trust to make good decisions when under pressure.
Good teams off a bye have done well long-term in the NFL. The Vikings have more talent and a more complete team than the Bears. I'll take the points here.
|11-18-18||Raiders v. Cardinals -5||23-21||Loss||-111||19 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Arizona Cardinals* The Arizona Cardinals aren't a good team, but they are a class ahead of the Oakland Raiders. Oakland appears to be throwing in the towel and hoping to get the top ranked draft pick in the offseason. Oakland hasn't even been competitive in recent weeks. It truly looks like the Raiders are playing the long game and not even caring about this season.
Arizona's offensive scheme was terrible earlier this year, but they look some better with Byron Leftwich calling the plays. He's able to take advantage of Johnson's talent in the backfield. Oakland is dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Raiders have made some bad offenses look good this year, and Arizona should have success here.
Oakland can't run the ball, so they'll have to be throwing it here. Arizona has a top ten secondary in the NFL though, and they are one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Derek Carr is going to be under pressure a lot here, and Carr under pressure is bad news for the Raiders offense. His decision making is questionable at best. Additionally, he's without two of the team's best receivers in this one.
The Cardinals have advantages at many key positions, and they have been playing hard. I can't say the same for Oakland.
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||23-21||Loss||-100||10 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Houston Texans ATS* The Houston Texans defensive front is excellent both against the run and when it comes to pass rushing. Washington's offensive line is the most banged up offensive line in the NFL right now. Houston isn't the team you want to play when you are this badly banged up on the offensive front.
Washington's defense ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Houston has been much better on offense of late. Watson is starting to play better and having an additional wide receiver with big play potential (Thomas) is a big plus for this team. The Texans have a big team speed advantage here.
Washington's offense is 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Houston's defense is 4th in yards per play allowed.
Washington has been doing it with smoke and mirrors. I don't think that will work in this one.
|11-11-18||Dolphins v. Packers -10||12-31||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* The Green Bay Packers are coming off two straight tough losses. Green Bay is clearly playing much better as the season moves along, and I see them bouncing back here against a poor Miami team. First, I'll note that Green Bay has played the 9th toughest schedule in the NFL. Miami has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers has a big moneymaker for bettors long-term, and even laying 8 points or more he has been money in the bank at home. He's been at his best coming off a loss.
The single strongest area of the Green Bay defense is their pass rush. They rank third in the NFL when it comes to rushing the passer. Miami's pass protection ranks 24th, and the Dolphins have severe injuries on the offensive line. Miami will be without at least one starting offensive linemen. Two other starters on the line are gametime decisions with injuries. Coach Adam Gase said, "If you have a pulse, you're in the mix. We're out of guys" when asked about the status of his offensive line this week.
Brock Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and him behind a weak offensive line and facing an elite pass rush should worry Miami fans and coaches a lot. Osweiler has been bad in general, but he's been particularly bad on the road. How bad? He is 2-7 ATS in his last 9 road games. In those 7 road losses with Brock as the starter, his teams are losing by 19.2 points per game.
Green Bay should get right against an overrated Miami team with injury issues and a bad quarterback.
Take Green Bay.
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||26-29||Push||0||34 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Jaguars* The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four straight games. The Colts have won their last two, though those were against two terrible opponents. The Colts have faced the 27th toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. The Jaguars have faced the 8th toughest schedule in the NFL.
Before the season, everyone expected the Jaguars to be better than the Colts. I think they are still the better team. Their recent woes have inflated this line to the point where I have to take Jacksonville. I like the bye week as a chance for the Jaguars to prepare to make a final stand.
Jacksonville still has a chance in this division. This is a weak division where no one is going to run away and hide. The Jaguars can't afford to lose this game though. Fortunately for them, they get Leonard Fournette back and they are going against the 25th ranked run defense in the NFL when adjusted for strength of schedule played. I expect the Jaguars to have success on the ground here.
The Jaguars have the much better defense and are getting a full field goal. The Colts still have a lot to prove since they have beaten up on weak competition.
Take the Jaguars.
|11-11-18||Patriots v. Titans +7||10-34||Win||100||34 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL System Play SMASHER* The Tennessee Titans have been good against quality teams of late. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with a winning record. Tennessee seemed to have turned a corner in their tight loss against the Chargers 20-19 in London. The Titans then went and thumped the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night.
New England is clearly a very good team, but the Patriots haven't been very impressive on the road so far this year. They were dominated by the Jaguars and the Lions earlier in the season. They beat the Bears a couple weeks ago by a touchdown despite being outgained in that one. They then beat Buffalo, who is the worst team in the NFL. The Patriots are laying an awfully big number here against a Titans team that has potential and is playing well of late. The Titans have clearly played a tougher schedule than the Patriots to this point in the year as well.
This one fits a contrarian system I follow that has done very well in the NFL. A home underdog of 6 points or more that is receiving less than 25% of the bets. This system is 64-25 ATS (72%) in the last 89 spots.
I'll go contrarian and take the Titans at home here.
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers -3||21-52||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Carolina Panthers have played very well in recent weeks. The betting market has come in strongly on Carolina here because of their recent play. Carolina is getting 62% of the tickets thus far this week. I respect Carolina as a team, but I feel this price has moved too far.
The Pittsburgh Steelers started the season a little slowly, but the Steelers are playing great football right now. They have dominated their last four opponents, and three of those four opponents are quality teams. The big difference for Pittsburgh of late has been their defense. The Steelers defense is up to 8th in yards per play allowed on the season. They are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games.
Thursday night games have been great to favorites. Favorites are cashing at 60.5% ATS since 2005 in the NFL. Home favorites on Thursday night are at 61.6% during that period.
The Steelers have faced the 12th toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year. Carolina has played only the 24th toughest schedule.
Mike Tomlin's teams are 4-2 in their last 6 when having 5 days or less to prepare for a game. Ron Rivera's teams are 2-5 ATS in the same situation.
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints OVER 57||35-45||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams offense has all sorts of weapons. Cooper Kupp is now back in the fold, and he's been a great fit for this offensive system. Jared Goff is playing with all sorts of confidence right now.
The Rams are 4th in the NFL in yards per play, and their offense is healthier this week. The Rams have a top three passing attack in the NFL, and they are up against a very weak secondary in the Saints. Eli Apple has been a major liability for this Saints secondary since coming over, and the Rams have the guys to take advantage of his weakness in coverage. The Saints are without Marcus Davenport as well, and he's a big loss as they try to rush the passer and disrupt the Rams rhythm. Look for Jared Goff and company to have a lot of success through the air here.
The Rams also have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley. The Saints have a good run defense, but they can't be as aggressive against the run as they normally are in this one.
The New Orleans Saints offense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play. Drew Brees can still sling it around, and he leads a very balanced attack. Kamara is a complete player who fits brilliantly in the system. The Saints have multiple very good route runners at wide receiver. If they need to run with power, the Rams defense ranks 26th against the run so far this year.
New Orleans is excellent on offense in general, but they are elite offensively in the Superdome.
Both teams prefer to play quickly, and I see a back and forth high scoring game here.
Take the over.
|11-04-18||Bucs v. Panthers OVER 54.5||28-42||Win||100||33 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has been a lot better with Ryan Fitzpatrick out there than Jameis Winston so far this year. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in yards per play. They are very explosive with a deep ball threat from Jackson on the outside and Evans is one of the best receivers in the NFL as well. The Panthers secondary ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass defense.
Carolina ranks first in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bucs defense is below average against the run, and they are dead last in pass defense. Cam Newton is starting to play better, and he Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up now.
Both quarterbacks are capable of big plays both ways. Fitzpatrick and Newton are prone to pick-sixes and/or big gainers. That helps the over significantly. The Panthers are a pretty big favorite here, and Tampa Bay showed last week how quick they can put up points late in a game where they are behind and the opposition is playing a prevent defense.
Take the over.
|11-04-18||Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47||23-16||Win||100||33 h 16 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The AFC North has been a tremendous division to bet the under in the past decade. The under is 59-34 (63.4% wins) in an AFC North contest with a total of 41 or higher. This is a hard hitting division where the teams know each other very well and the defenses typically have the upper hand.
The Steelers defense looked very weak in the first couple games of the year, but they are now all the way up to 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore is 1st in yards per play allowed.
Pittsburgh's offense is 6th in yards per play, while Baltimore is only 27th. The Steelers have been much worse offensively on the road the last few seasons though.
The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. This is a game that means a bunch to both teams and I think this number is several points too high.
Take the under.
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings OVER 52||30-20||Loss||-108||52 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are clearly a better offense in the dome, and they get to play a road game in another dome here. Drew Brees is as solid as ever, and he has some great weapons around him. Brees and the Saints offense have a clear advantage over a Vikings secondary that is very banged up. Adjusted for strength of schedule, I have the Vikings as the 22nd best pass defense in the NFL thus far. Xavier Rhodes might try to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.
The Vikings are airing it out on offense this year. They are throwing on nearly 67% of their offensive plays. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- the Saints have the 29th best pass defense. Kirk Cousins has some elite receivers and they should be able to get open and create big plays in the passing game.
Two teams who like to throw it around against subpar pass defenses.
The over is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. An 11-0 angle.
Take the over.
|10-28-18||49ers -1 v. Cardinals||15-18||Loss||-110||47 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on 49ers* The San Francisco 49ers lost at home three weeks ago to the Arizona Cardinals despite outgaining them by more than 200 yards. That was one of the most misleading final scores you will ever see. It's hard to score 28 points on only 220 yards of offense, but that's what the Cardinals did in that game thanks to the 49ers turnovers. San Francisco finished with five turnovers while the Cardinals had zero. That isn't likely to be equaled in this one.
San Francisco is -0.1 in yards per play margin on the season. Arizona is -1.3 yards per play margin on the year. The 49ers are a terrible -15 in turnover margin, and history tells us that type of thing generally regresses toward the mean.
The 49ers are playing with revenge on their minds from a recent loss, and they are definitely the more talented team here. Arizona has locker room issues, while the 49ers have been playing hard.
Take San Francisco.
|10-28-18||Jets v. Bears UNDER 44||10-24||Win||100||40 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. This game will be played in some major wind by Lake Michigan at Soldier Field. Taking an average forecast from 5 different weather sources- the wind is expected to be about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the game as well. That's the type of wind that can change the way a game is played.
The Jets offense is very shorthanded right now with Bilal Powell out. He's a key player both in the running game and in the passing game (and pass blocking). Sam Darnold has been good this year, but he's without Powell and 2 starting wide receivers as well. The Bears have a good pass rush, and I think it will be hard for New York to move the ball consistently here.
The Bears offense must rely heavily on the run game because Mitchell Trubisky just isn't good enough to rely on consistently. The strength of the Jets defense is the run defense though. New York ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule.
Both teams play at a pace slightly slower than average in the NFL. With both teams being forced to play conservatively and key offensive players missing- I like this one to stay low scoring in the wind.
Take the under.
|10-28-18||Ravens v. Panthers UNDER 44||21-36||Loss||-104||36 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Ravens defense has no clear weaknesses. They are very good against both the run and pass, and they have a good pass rush.
Carolina is an elite rushing team, but they haven't been good throwing the ball this year. Baltimore has a top three run defense in the NFL. Carolina has only faced one top run defense this year (Dallas), and they struggled mightily with them in a 16-8 win.
The Baltimore offense ranks 28th in the NFL in yards per play. That isn't good to start with, but it is especially weak when you realize they have played quite a few mediocre or worse defenses. The Baltimore running game is non-existent.
I see this as a hard hitting contest that stays close and low scoring.
Take the under.
|10-28-18||Eagles v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5||24-18||Win||100||40 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Blake Bortles has been a mess and this Jaguars offense is without their star running back Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville has scored 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. I don't trust this offense one bit.
Jacksonville's defense is still excellent. Adjusted for strength of schedule played I have the Jaguars as the best pass defense in the NFL. They have a good pass rush as well, and I think they'll make life tough on Wentz in this one.
The Eagles offense ranks 26th in yards per play on the season. That is despite playing only the 26th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. The Eagles struggle in pass protection, and that's a problem in this matchup.
The weather could play a role here. Winds of about 15 mph are expected and there is a 25% chance of rain. It isn't the primary reason I took this under, but it's a nice bonus.
Take the under.
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||42 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Redskins/Cowboys CASH* The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys meet in what is always a hard fought rivalry contest. Dallas has been playing much better football of late, and Washington is coming off a nice win over Carolina last weekend.
The Dallas defense is the strongest unit on either team. Dallas has been very good on defense all year, and now they get Sean Lee back after he has been out with an injury the last couple weeks. This Cowboys defense is pretty good without Lee this year, but they are elite with him on the field. Lee is one of the most important defenders in the NFL. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall this year.
Washington's defense has been solid this year as well. The Redskins gave up a lot to New Orleans in the Superdome, but other than that this unit has been very good. Washington is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season.
Dallas is 25th in yards per play on offense. Washington is 26th in offensive yards per play. These two offenses haven't been consistent at all. Washington has major injury issues on the offensive line, and Dallas should be in the backfield a lot here.
Dallas' passing game isn't good enough, and they rely very heavily on Ezekiel Elliot.
The wind forecast in this game is 15-25 mph early in the game and 12-16 mph by the end of the game. That's plenty to make the teams more conservative. I expect a lot of running clock and a low scoring contest here.
Take the under.
|10-21-18||Saints v. Ravens UNDER 50||24-23||Win||100||109 h 8 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have the top defense in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore is allowing only 4.4 yards per play so far this season. The Ravens defense excels at pressuring the quarterback, as the Titans found out the hard way last weekend.
This New Orleans offense is clearly very good. Still, the Saints are dealing with the best defense they have played this year. They are also away from the friendly confines of the Superdome. This one will be played on grass in Baltimore in chilly weather. That makes a big difference.
Baltimore's offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all. That allows opponents to get after the passer and the Ravens are too one-dimensional to be a good offense in the NFL.
A big key here is the weather. Across the board the forecasts are for winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Simply betting high totals in windy games is a great way to make money betting the NFL in the long run. The chilly weather and the grass is a negative for the Saints offense as well.
If the wind is especially bad here, it makes both teams run the ball even more, and that takes away the strengths of these two offenses.
When the total is 47 or higher and the wind is 9 mph or more in New Orleans road games- the under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests. This one fits this system.
Take the under.
|10-21-18||Lions v. Dolphins OVER 46.5||32-21||Win||100||39 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Over* Detroit's defense hasn't been impressive at all this year. Detroit has allowed 23 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. The Lions are 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 6.0.
The Miami Dolphins have a lot of speed on offense. Brock Osweiler will be starting at quarterback again this week. I'm certainly not a big fan of his, but he has some really good speed on the outside, and the Lions lack top end speed in the secondary.
The Miami defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Cameron Wake is questionable for this game, and he is arguably their best defender.
Detroit is a very pass-heavy offense, and Miami's pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 in the NFL in all major pass defense categories. Matt Stafford should be able to air it out on this defense.
Helping both offenses is the referee crew. Jerome Bogers' crew will be doing this game. This crew is famous for lots of holding and pass interference penalties on the defense. The over is 90-64 in this crew's 154 games.
Two bad defenses and offenses with big play ability.
Take the over.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||40-43||Push||0||65 h 45 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Sunday Night 100% System Play* The New England Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in Bill Belichick's last 14 games when playing on more than a week of rest. New England has been a machine when playing at home as a small favorite too. They are a whopping 53-16 ATS with Tom Brady as their starting quarterback as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Pats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 at home as a touchdown favorite or less against a team with a 67% win percentage or higher.
Patrick Mahomes is very good, but the Chiefs have been fortunate this year. Blake Bortles handed them the game last weekend. Don't expect Brady and the Pats to do the same thing here. This is a proud Patriots team playing on extra rest and with revenge from last year's beat down at home handed to them by Kansas City. The Chiefs defense is one of the three worst in the NFL. New England's defense is better than a year ago by a wide margin.
Also key here is Tom Brady's weapons on offense are much better now. Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon make this receiving group much better.
The Chiefs have been the worst team in the NFL at defending tight ends in the passing game. Rob Gronkowski should have a huge game here.
Finally, the Patriots are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite against a team with an ATS win percentage of higher than 70%. This one fits the system.
Take New England.
|10-14-18||Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42||21-0||Win||100||47 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans host the Baltimore Ravens late Sunday afternoon in Nashville.
Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Titans are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Two very strong defenses here.
Tennessee is running more than any other team in the NFL this year. They want to establish the run, but Baltimore has a really strong front seven. Mariota and the Titans passing attack haven't been consistent at all.
Baltimore is 27th in yards per play on offense this year. Tennessee is 30th in yards per play. These are two offenses that have failed to show a consistent ability to move the ball.
The weather here should play a role also. There is a 60 percent chance of rain and winds of 12-15 mph. That's plenty to make it harder for the passing attacks. More conservative play calling would help both of these defenses who are strong in the trenches.
The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two.
Take the under.
|10-14-18||Bears v. Dolphins UNDER 42||28-31||Loss||-114||32 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears defense is elite. Their pass rush is going to give a bunch of teams trouble this year, and Miami's offensive line is in big trouble here. Miami's offensive line isn't very good to begin with, and now they are dealing with a severe shortage at the center position. Look for the Bears to get after Ryan Tannehill here.
The Bears offense still has a lot to prove. They ran up a big number on the Bucs, but that's a terrible defense. Miami's defense is solid against the run, and Trubisky and the passing attack still have plenty to prove.
Chicago's defense is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins have a gimmicky offense that is starting to get figured out by good defensive coordinators.
Both teams play at a much slower pace than the average team in the NFL. This kind of slow paced game with two teams who are very inconsistent on offense makes the under have value.
The under is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45||34-13||Loss||-115||80 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Two offenses who have struggled quite a bit this season. New York is 20th in the NFL in yards per play. Philadelphia is all the way down at 25th in yards per play.
The Eagles defense is a strong unit, and I think the Giants defense will improve as well. Carson Wentz isn't himself yet, and Eli Manning just isn't a very good quarterback at this stage in his career.
The pace of play is key here. New York has played at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom ten in tempo as well.
Weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast calls for rain which is heavy at times and winds of 10-15 mph. That's a huge plus for the under.
The under is 5-1 in the Giants last 6 home games.
Take the under here.
|10-07-18||Giants v. Panthers -6||31-33||Loss||-100||34 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Super System Play* The Carolina Panthers have been tremendous running the football so far this year. Christian McCaffrey appears to be coming into his own for the Panthers, and Cam Newton is always a great rushing option as well. The Panthers offensive front is better this year.
The Giants are 26th in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run. They don't have many good run stuffers on this defensive unit. The Giants are likely to get a bunch of running plays sent at them this week, and I can't see them faring very well here.
Carolina is coming off a bye week. Teams coming off a bye week and playing in a non-division game in the first 8 weeks of the season are 58.5% ATS in the last 15 years in the NFL. Carolina fits that system this weekend.
I certainly don't trust Eli Manning to be able to trade scores with Newton and the Panthers.
|10-07-18||Titans v. Bills +5.5||12-13||Win||100||34 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on the Buffalo Bills* The Buffalo Bills were blown out in Green Bay last weekend, but their defense has shown me a lot in recent weeks. Buffalo was absolutely blown out in week one by Baltimore, but since then this team has been very competitive. Buffalo has played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year, so their numbers are skewed to the negative a bit right now. Buffalo still ranks number nine in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
The Titans are coming off three straight wins by a field goal. Last week they won in overtime against the Eagles. They have two straight wins over contending teams, and they are feeling good about themselves as they go to Buffalo to take on the Bills. This is the type of game that would be easy to overlook.
Tennessee's offense ranks 28th in yards per play, so they aren't likely to be able to do too much on offense here. With a posted total set this low, grabbing this many points is more valuable.
Tennessee is 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Buffalo is tricky team to face on their home field, and this is a bad spot for the Titans.
|10-07-18||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 45.5||9-12||Win||100||34 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore really impressed me on defense last weekend in their win at Pittsburgh. The Ravens are balanced on defense, and there is no real weakness to attack. The Ravens are first in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Cleveland gave up a ton of points last weekend, but the Browns defense is still a very solid unit. The Browns turnovers and some terrible calls by the refs inflated Oakland's point total last weekend some. Look at how well the Browns defended New Orleans in the Superdome and that says a lot. Cleveland ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
The AFC North has consistently been a very good division for the under. How good? The under is a whopping 57-33 (63.3%) in an AFC North game with a total of 41 points or higher since 2004.
Both of these offenses aren't very explosive, and I see a defensive battle here.
Take the under.
|10-07-18||Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs||14-30||Loss||-110||34 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Jacksonville was the top pass defense in the NFL last year. They will once again be one of the top two or three in the league this year. Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City offense has been great this year, but this is by far the best defense they have played yet. It's a huge test for them.
What is Jacksonville going to want to do in this game? The Jags will run the football. Kansas City is dead last in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per carry so far this year. Look for the Jaguars to have a lot of success on the ground.
The weather may play a role here with some rain in the area and a bit of wind. That definitely would help the Jaguars with the stronger defense and better running game.
I have to take a great defense getting points against a terrible defense. Mahomes is a really good player, but this is a big test. I think Jacksonville has a good chance of winning outright here.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||7-38||Win||100||105 h 29 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Patriots* The Miami Dolphins aren't as good as their record would indicate. The New England Patriots aren't as bad as they have looked either.
Miami has been outgained by a large margin in two of their three wins. The Dolphins were by 105 yards against the Jets. They were outgained by 62 yards against the Raiders. They outgained the Titans by only six yards in week one.
The Patriots have been questionable early in the season before and they have always responded in a big way. I'm not sure this team is quite as good as some of those other teams, but this team is really well coached and they need to get back on track. I think they will be ready for this one.
How has Bill Belichick done while on an ATS losing streak of 1-3 games? In games where they are laying less than 7 (or are an underdog) their ATS record is a whopping 42-11-3 ATS. These Patriots have been extremely resilient.
The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in New England. New England laying this short of a number in a bounce back spot is something I have to play.
Take New England.
|09-27-18||Vikings +7.5 v. Rams||31-38||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The LA Rams are a really good team, but this is too many points with the Vikings for me to pass up.
The Vikings are 19-9 ATS in Mike Zimmer's 28 games as an underdog. Zimmer is a really good coach, and his Minnesota team is coming off an embarrassing performance last weekend. In the NFL, betting on a team after a blowout ATS loss has been a great long-term trend. It's even stronger when the team you are backing is a quality team.
The Rams have some major secondary injuries. Aqib Talib is out for this game. Marcus Peters is a gametime decision and won't be 100% in this game even if he plays.
The Vikings still have a top three defense in the NFL, and they are catching 7.5 points here in a bounce back spot.
Minnesota is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 following a straight up loss. Grab the points here.
|09-23-18||Patriots v. Lions OVER 51.5||10-26||Loss||-106||115 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring on this Detroit Lions defense. The Lions defense isn't good to start with, and the guess from most is that Darius Slay, their top corner, is unlikely to play this Sunday night. He suffered a head injury last weekend, and most players with similar injuries have missed at least one game. The Lions don't have any depth in the secondary, and the Patriots can take advantage.
On the other side, Blake Bortles just carved up this Patriots secondary. Matt Stafford has been good on the turf, and I think he'll find a lot of open receivers in this one. New England has shown defensive weakness in the past year, and a team like Detroit that airs it out often should be able to move the ball on this unit.
The over is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 home games. The over is 5-1 in the Lions last 6 after a loss.
Look for a lot of big plays and a high scoring contest.
Take the over.
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||14-27||Win||100||94 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens were down 21-0 in no time last Thursday against the Bengals. I consider John Harbaugh one of the better coaches in the NFL. Harbaugh has extra time to get his team ready for this one, and I'll be surprised if they don't play much better here.
In the NFL, teams who have had more than 8 days off are hitting at 55.3% ATS since 2003. The extra rest clearly makes a difference.
The Broncos are very fortunate to be 2-0 on the season, and that has them overvalued coming into this game. Denver won on a late comeback against a poor Seattle team at home. They were then badly outplayed at home for the majority of the game against the Raiders.
Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. Vance Joseph hasn't impressed me as a head coach thus far, and he has only covered 4 games as a head coach.
The Broncos are traveling east to play an early game against a pumped up Baltimore team with something to prove. The Ravens have a big coaching edge and the extra rest.
|09-23-18||49ers +7 v. Chiefs||27-38||Loss||-110||42 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on San Francisco* The Kansas City Chiefs would have been favored by no more than 3 points in this game just two weeks ago. To see a move of this magnitude in two weeks time in the NFL is fairly rare. It is extremely rare when the opposing team has actually played pretty well so far this year.
San Francisco is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.3 on defense. They played a tight game against the Vikings who are an excellent team, and that was a road contest. They then built a big lead before holding on to a win at home against the Lions. They were sloppy late and many of the players have said that is a point of emphasis this week to to be sharp for the whole contest and not have lapses.
Patrick Mahomes has been amazing in his first two games in the NFL. There's nothing negative I can say about Mahomes here. The Kansas City offense is tremendous, and they should score quite a few points here.
San Francisco should score quite a few too though. The Chiefs are second to last in yards per play allowed so far this year at 6.9. This Chiefs defense just isn't any good.
It's tough to lay a lot of points with a bad defense, especially with Andy Reid as your head coach. Reid is known for being conservative when in the lead.
Interesting trend- teams who played their first two games on the road and come back home for their home opener in week 3 are 9-26-2 ATS since 2003. The Chiefs are in that spot here.
Too much line value here to pass up.
Take San Francisco.
|09-16-18||Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5||13-20||Win||100||51 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys have a great running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Dak Prescott has a major shortage of weapons in the passing game though. Until Dallas proves they can complete something deep, I expect teams to stack the box just like Carolina did last week and force Dallas to beat them through the air. The Giants defense should much improved this season. I would expect them to get some pressure on Prescott here when he does throw.
The Giants offensive line is once again a weakness. Barkley busted one big run against Jacksonville, but overall he struggled to find space. Eli Manning isn't good at quarterback at this point in his career, and he'll be under a lot of pressure here.
Both of these teams are playing at a slow tempo. Dallas is especially slow. The Cowboys will be running the ball a lot and when they are going to wait so long between plays, it is a big boost for the under.
Dallas has scored 10 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games.
The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-16-18||Panthers v. Falcons -5.5||24-31||Win||100||36 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Atlanta Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons are on extra rest here. Teams on extra rest in the NFL have done very well ATS in the long run. While both teams have a bunch of injuries here, I'm more concerned with Carolina's cluster injuries on the offensive line. They have four key contributors who are out on the offensive front.
Atlanta definitely has the defensive front to get into the Carolina backfield a lot with the Panthers offensive line issues.
The Falcons have had the Panthers number the last few seasons. Atlanta has beaten Carolina in 4 of their last 5 meetings. All of those wins came by a touchdown or more, and 3 of them were by double digits. They have outgained Carolina in each of those games.
The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in Matt Ryan's home season openers. Atlanta has a bad taste in their mouths after they blew a great chance to win in Philly in week one. The Falcons are the more complete team here.
Carolina's defense isn't as good without Davis, and the Falcons red zone offense isn't likely to continue to be so bad. Extra rest for the Falcons and some key matchup advantages.
|09-16-18||Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5||42-37||Loss||-110||36 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers outgained the Cleveland Browns by 145 yards last week. It was the six turnovers that led to the tie. Pittsburgh isn't going to keep turning the ball over that many times. The Steelers offense has been much better at home in recent seasons.
Kansas City's pass rush isn't even close to what it once was. Eric Berry is likely to miss this game, and advanced statistics show the Chiefs as one of the worst defenses in the NFL without Berry. How are the Chiefs going to slow the Steelers down here? While Kansas City won in week one, the Chargers moved the ball at will. The Chargers blew many scoring chances. Pittsburgh isn't likely to do the same.
Patrick Mahomes looks like a good quarterback, but I think he will have some growing pains. The public is backing Kansas City in a huge way here. About 75% of the bets are on the underdog here. I always like fading a public underdog.
Pittsburgh bounces back at home.
Take the Steelers.
|09-09-18||Seahawks v. Broncos -3||24-27||Push||0||37 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Seahawks/Broncos ATS CASH* The Denver Broncos have a nice home field advantage thanks to the altitude to start with, but their advantage is even greater early in the season and when the temperature is warmer.
Denver is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games between weeks 1-4 with a temperature of 70 degrees or warmer. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 in that situation during week one. In this one, they play a Seattle Seahawks team that is badly banged up as they start the season. Seattle is short handed to begin with, while Denver is among the healthiest teams in the NFL.
Seattle is an awful 1-14 ATS on the road in their last 15 road games in weeks 1-3. The Seahawks have been a much better team during that time frame than they are now as well. Russell Wilson has a bad offensive line in front of him and a lack of play makers on the outside. The Seahawks defense is nowhere near as strong as it was in the past either.
Denver has the better defense and they now have a quarterback who is a big upgrade from the guys they have had the last couple years. Keenum should steady things for them.
Take Denver here.
|09-09-18||Bengals +3 v. Colts||34-23||Win||100||118 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Cincinnati Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals are 3 point underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts here. The Colts have all sorts of question marks. Andrew Luck is back and starting at quarterback, but it is hard to imagine him not being a little bit different after the major shoulder surgery and issues he has in rehab. Luck also injured his foot in a preseason game and has missed some practice time due to that.
The Colts have what I believe is the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bengals passing offense should be much improved with Tyler Eifert back on the field. John Ross is also going to get to see the field to try to stretch the defense. Green is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Cincinnati's offensive line isn't a strength, but they aren't the huge weakness that the Bengals had last year after they drafted Price and picked up Cordy Glenn as well.
Luck hasn't played in 2 years, and he has to know he'll need to do a lot here with the Colts defense being one of the worst in the NFL. The Bengals have a very strong defensive front, and the Colts aren't likely to be able to run the ball much here.
I think Cincinnati has a good chance of winning this game outright, and I'll gladly take the field goal.
|09-09-18||Steelers v. Browns UNDER 45.5||21-21||Win||100||92 h 49 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in the season opener. Cleveland should be much more competitive this year. The Browns were great against the run last year, and they clearly upgraded their secondary in the offseason. Cleveland has some very nice young talent in the secondary.
Pittsburgh will be without Le'Veon Bell for this one, and he has been such a big part of their success both on the ground and in the air. While Pittsburgh's defense is questionable, I don't think the Browns have the kind of weapons to expose their weaknesses all that much.
The weather here looks very good for an under. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds and rain during this game. The winds are the key and I expect this number to drop if the forecast stays the same.
The under is 11-2 in the Browns last 13 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Cleveland.
Take the under.
|09-09-18||Bills v. Ravens UNDER 41||3-47||Loss||-115||58 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast plays a major role in this being an under play for me. Baltimore is expected to have 15-20 mph winds and steady rain on Sunday. That's a big plus for the under. It is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moving through, and the timing appears to be right for Baltimore to be damp and breezy during this contest.
The Buffalo Bills offense should endure some real struggles this year. They have a new system and Nathan Peterman is under center. I would have expected the game plan in week one to be pretty conservative for Buffalo's offense here no matter what, but with the weather it will likely be even more conservative. The Ravens defense should be better against the run this year, and they'll load up the box in this one.
Baltimore's offense is likely to be better this year, but in week one I don't expect huge things. Buffalo's defense has been pretty good at not giving up big plays, and Baltimore is likely to lean on the run more in this game than in most later in the year.
Take the under.
|09-09-18||Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 42.5||20-15||Win||100||58 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants meet on Sunday afternoon in the season opener. The Giants offense will have a new look under Mike Shula as their OC. Look for the Giants to try much harder to establish the run. They ended up throwing the ball 62% of the time last year. I don't expect a repeat of that. The Giants also played at the second fastest pace in the NFL last year. That should change with Shurmur and Shula in charge. They will look to hold the ball and give their defense a break.
Jacksonville's defense is clearly a top three defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have the best secondary in the NFL, and they aren't likely to give up many big plays in the passing game here. The Giants aren't good enough on the offensive line to hold this Jacksonville pass rush back either.
Jacksonville ran the ball more than any other team in the league last year. That will likely be the case again this year. They will look to run the ball as much as possible and create play action spots for Bortles rather than slinging it around. Not having Marqise Lee in the passing game this year hurts this offense badly. The Giants run defense is likely to be better this year with the addition of Ogletree.
The weather here is a bit questionable too. While there isn't any major rain in the forecast, there are sustained 12 mph winds here which gives the under a bit of a boost as well.
Take the under.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48.5||41-33||Win||100||26 h 34 m||Show|
*2 Star NFL Super Bowl Totals Takedown* The Philadelphia Eagles offense should be able to gash the New England Patriots for some big plays here. Nick Foles isn't great, but he's a good backup and is up against a Patriots defense that is average. The Eagles have a strong offensive line and they should get a solid push in the running game.
The Patriots passing game should work really well here. The Eagles don't have a great pass rush, and they have struggled at defending both slot receivers and tight ends. The Patriots have the best tight end and best slot receiver in the NFL. Add in the Pats running backs ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and we should see a big day from Tom Brady. Remember, this Patriots offense hasn't been this healthy in a long time.
This game is played in a dome, so weather is no factor at all. Both teams have good kickers as well.
Take the over.
|01-21-18||Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39||7-38||Loss||-102||26 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles meet in Philadelphia to decide who will play in the Super Bowl and represent the NFC.
Minnesota ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed on the year. The Vikings have one of the best defensive minds in football as their head coach. I think they'll have a great game plan ready defensively.
Philadelphia's defensive front is excellent with Fletcher Cox leading the way. This Eagles defense played great in the home underdog role last week, and I expect a strong effort again.
Both of these teams play at a pace slower than the league average. Both teams have backup quarterbacks at the helm, and I expect pretty vanilla game plans on offense.
This sets up as a field position game, and a game where there are likely to be a lot of field goal attempts rather than touchdowns. Both of these defenses have been good at limiting touchdowns in key spots.
This is a low under, but it is low for a reason. Expect a tight low scoring game.
Take the under.
|01-13-18||Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5||10-15||Win||100||60 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have Nick Foles at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz for this one, and that's clearly a big step down. The Atlanta Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as it was last season. They miss Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator.
Atlanta has been an under machine of late. All six of their last six games have gone under. Five of them have been under this low total. The Falcons defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.
The Eagles rank 8th in yards per play allowed this year. Their defensive front should get pressure on Matt Ryan who is playing behind a banged up offensive front.
The weather here could be a real problem. Winds are expected to be about 15 mph during the game with gusts of 25 mph. That changes the game and it certainly helps the under. Look for more conservative play calling and the defenses will load up the box more often.
Take the under.
|01-07-18||Bills v. Jaguars -8.5||3-10||Loss||-105||21 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Bills/Jaguars ATS MONEY* The Buffalo Bills ranked 20th in yards per play allowed this year. Buffalo's defense relied on takeaways. When they didn't get takeaways, they allowed a lot of points. Buffalo's run defense has been a particular area of concern. The Bills are allowing 4.3 yards per rush (25th in the NFL). In their last 3 games, they have allowed 4.8 yards per carry.
Jacksonville has allowed 4.3 yards per carry on the year as well, but the Jaguars run defense has been much better in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games.
Marcell Dareus was traded from Buffalo to Jacksonville in the middle of the year. The Bills run defense got much worse after that, and the Jaguars run defense got much better.
LeSean McCoy is a game time decision here for the Bills. If he plays, he is likely to be at far less than 100 percent. The Bills don't have a good backup option at RB. Tyrod Taylor is likely to be under pressure quickly all game here. The Bills have the 31st ranked pass protection unit. The Jaguars are 2nd in pass rush.
I don't see Buffalo scoring much at all here. I'll lay the points with the much better defense and the healthier team at home.
Take the Jaguars.
|01-06-18||Falcons +6 v. Rams||26-13||Win||100||25 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Falcons/Rams ATS CASH* The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams meet on Saturday night in LA. There is very little home field advantage for the Rams here. The Rams are a team I've been high on this year, but I think they are getting too much respect against a veteran Atlanta team back in the playoffs after blowing a lead in the Super Bowl last year.
Atlanta isn't quite as dynamic on offense this year, but they are still second in the NFL in yards per play on the season. The Rams have had trouble stopping the run this year, and I expect Atlanta to be able to run the ball. Kayvon Webster being out is a big problem for the Rams. The Falcons have too many good wide receivers, and I expect a guy like Mohammed Sanu to have a good game here.
The Falcons defense is better than it was a year ago. I think they'll hold their own in this spot. Greg Zuerlein is a huge loss for the Rams. He is one of the best kickers in the NFL, and his absence hits the Rams special teams hard.
Atlanta has been here before. The Rams are a good team, but this is their first time here. I won't be surprised if the Rams win either, but I expect a close game all the way. I'll grab the points.
|01-06-18||Titans v. Chiefs OVER 44.5||22-21||Loss||-105||21 h 16 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs started the season by dominating on offense through being more aggressive with play calling. Kansas City has a ton of skill position weapons, and they were utilizing them well. They got cautious again in the middle of the season, and they slumped. Late in the season, they changed play callers and things improved again. I expect some more aggressive play calling here.
The Titans secondary has been a major weakness down the stretch. I expect Kansas City to be able to get some big plays through the air. Kansas City is second in the NFL in yards per play this year.
The Kansas City defense isn't good. Eric Berry is a huge loss for this defense, and the Chiefs allowed 5.6 yards per play on the year, which was 26th in the NFL.
Marcus Mariota does have some weapons on the outside and if they get behind which they likely will here, look for some more aggressive play calling from the Titans as well.
Both defenses have been vulnerable to big plays, and this total is set at a low number.
Take the over.
|12-31-17||Raiders +7 v. Chargers||10-30||Loss||-115||17 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Los Angeles Chargers have no home field advantage. The Raiders are a team that typically travels fairly well, and this is a divisional rival they are up against.
Oakland has shown fight down the stretch, and I expect them to continue to work hard here, especially since they have a chance to hurt a divisional foe.
The Raiders and Chargers matchups have been decided by 3 points or less in each of the last four meetings. In fact, 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a margin of 3 points or less.
The Chargers have had red zone trouble on offense this year, and Hunter Henry being out makes that even worse.
The Raiders rushing attack has been good of late, and the Chargers are last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.
Grab the full touchdown here.
The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Raiders are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 following a loss. A 9-0 angle.
|12-31-17||Redskins v. Giants UNDER 40||10-18||Win||100||14 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New York Giants host the Washington Redskins in a game where both teams fell far short of expectations for the season. There are no playoff implications here.
When you look back in the last ten years, teams who are not going to be part of the playoffs meeting in week 17 has been slightly positive for the under.
The weather here should play a major role. The temperature is expected to be about 15 degrees during this game. The sustained winds will be at 12-14 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. It's going to be a nasty day, and that should make the two offenses more predictable.
The important part here is if the two teams have to run, neither of them are any good at it. I expect a bunch of punts in this one.
Both offensive lines are badly banged up, and neither quarterback has any of their star receivers left.
The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.
Take the under.
|12-24-17||Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins||11-27||Loss||-110||32 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Washington Redskins are as banged up as anyone in the NFL. Washington is missing so many key players on both sides of the ball. Kirk Cousins is playing behind a beat up offensive line, and the team's best skill position players are all out.
Washington has been outgained in 7 of their last 9 games. They were badly outplayed by Arizona last week, but the Cardinals mishaps in the red zone allowed the Redskins to win 20-15. This Redskins team simply isn't very good right now.
They are up against a Denver team that has a top three defense in the NFL. Denver's defense has dominated in their last two games, and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Broncos shut down the Washington offense completely here.
Denver's offense was better last week, and Brock Osweiler has been making better choices with the football. Vance Joseph has talked about how important it is to him to get CJ Anderson 1,000 yards on the ground, and I think Anderson can have success in this game.
I expect Denver to win this game, but I'll gladly take the 3.5 points.
|12-24-17||Rams v. Titans +7||27-23||Win||100||32 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on the Titans* The Tennessee Titans lost in heartbreaking fashion last week to San Francisco. Yes, it was a tough way to lose for a team that needs to win to get in the playoffs. Still, the Titans are right here in position to get into the playoffs if they just win games.
Tennessee has lost only once this year at home. The Titans defense has played much better on their home field, and Marcus Mariota has been a different quarterback when playing at home as well.
I like the Rams, but I think perception of this team has finally gotten too high. The Rams are coming off a 42-7 blowout win at Seattle last week. There is plenty of recency bias built into this number. That was certainly an impressive showing by the Rams, but Seattle couldn't get out of their own way in that game.
Tennessee needs this game badly, and they have a strong edge in the run game here. I think the Titans run the ball well here against a Rams defense that has been bad all year against the run.
Take the Titans.
|12-24-17||Chargers v. Jets UNDER 43||14-7||Win||100||32 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Chargers take on the New York Jets on Sunday. Bryce Petty will start for the Jets. Petty was shaky last week in New Orleans, and I certainly don't trust him to be good against an excellent Chargers pass rush. The Jets offensive front is a clear weakness, and the Chargers led by Joey Bosa should be in the backfield a lot here.
The Chargers offense has been able to move the ball this year, but their red zone performance has been terrible. It is partially because of poor play calling in key spots. An inability to run on short distance downs has hurt too. The Jets have still been trying hard on defense, and this isn't the easiest of spots for the Chargers after an important loss at Kansas City last week.
The Chargers have been a good under team all year, and against a Jets team that is likely to play it conservative on offense with an inexperienced quarterback, I like the value on the under.
Take the under.
|12-23-17||Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41||16-23||Win||100||13 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Saturday Total Domination* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been very good this year. They have consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL in yards per play this season.
Indianapolis' offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Colts are averaging only 4.0 yards per play during that time. I don't see them getting much going here either.
Baltimore's offense has been better in recent weeks, but they have been best at running the ball, and the Colts run defense is pretty decent.
The weather should play a factor here. There is expected to be rain and wind of about 12-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph during this game. That's significant enough to make both teams more conservative in their play calling.
I see Baltimore getting a lead and then being content to run the ball and use the clock.
Take the under.
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5||24-21||Loss||-105||6 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Tampa Bay Bucs will be without a bunch of key players on defense here. You could make a solid argument that the two best players on this defense are Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy. Both of them are out for this one. Hargreaves is a top corner for them and he will miss this game as well.
Atlanta's offense has been great of late. The Falcons are averaging 6.3 yards per play in their last three contests. They moved the ball at will against Tampa Bay in their first meeting, and Tampa Bay is even more short-handed on defense this time around.
Jameis Winston is healthy now, and the Bucs offense is a solid 13th in the NFL in yards per play. In a primetime spot, I expect Tampa Bay's offense to get their yards and points as well.
The over is 10-0-1 in the Falcons last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the over.
|12-17-17||Titans +2 v. 49ers||23-25||Push||0||43 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on the Titans* San Francisco has certainly been better the last couple weeks since changing quarterbacks. Still, this is a line that gives an awful lot of credit to a 3-10 team who has very little home field advantage.
Marcus Mariota had a terrible game last week and I think this is a good bounce back spot for him. This is a game the Titans really need to win to right the ship. The Titans defense is an underrated unit. Tennessee ranks 4th in the NFL in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule.
I see this as an overreaction to the last couple weeks. We will look to take advantage of some recency bias.
San Francisco is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. The 49ers are 5-15 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
Take the Titans.
|12-17-17||Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 47||42-7||Loss||-103||13 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Seattle Seahawks host the LA Rams in a game that means a lot to both teams. You can expect both teams to be highly motivated in this one. The more important the game- the better it is for the under, especially in the regular season.
A big reason why I like this one is the weather. Seattle is expected to receive steady rain through this game, and wind will accompany it. The winds are expected to be 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That's enough to change the way this game is played.
The Seahawks running attack isn't good at all. The Rams can run the ball some, but the strength of the Seahawks defense now is their run defense.
These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. In the last three games between these two one team has had 10 points or fewer. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The under is 4-0 in the Seahawks last 4 vs a divisional foe. A 13-0 angle.
Take the under.
|12-17-17||Packers v. Panthers -140||24-31||Win||100||43 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback, and he makes this Green Bay team tons better, but I think this is a difficult spot for the Packers.
The Panthers have an elite pass rush, and the Packers offensive line ranks among the three worst in the NFL in protecting the quarterback. That means Rodgers is going to be under pressure a bunch here and he'll be taking shots. He isn't likely to want to scramble around much here, and that is part of what makes him so great.
The Panthers running game has started working of late. Cam Newton has gotten more involved in the running game, and that has been a huge key to this team's success of late.
Green Bay's defense is allowing 5.6 yards per play. This is a unit that simply isn't very good. While Rodgers is going to make this team a lot better, he can't do everything for them.
The oddsmakers are disrespecting the Panthers here. This isn't an easy matchup for Green Bay, and Rodgers is amazing, but he will be tested in a big way against a good secondary and great pass rush.
With the heavy juice on the -2.5 right now, I choose to take the moneyline instead. I see Carolina taking care of business at home here.
|12-17-17||Cardinals +4 v. Redskins||15-20||Loss||-110||40 h 45 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Washington Redskins have nothing to play for at this point. Washington showed promise early in the season, but injuries derailed this team. The offensive line is banged up and Kirk Cousins is without his three best skill position players on offense. This leaves Cousins to do way too much and here he'll be up against an excellent secondary.
Arizona is giving up only 4.9 yards per carry on the season. The Cardinals have done a good job grinding out close victories of late. While the offense is nothing special, I do think they can get enough done against a Washington defense that gives up 5.6 yards per play.
The Redskins are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games versus a team with a losing record. I don't think the Redskins have much motivation here. Grab the points.
|12-17-17||Ravens v. Browns OVER 40||27-10||Loss||-112||40 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle Crusher* Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns are much improved on offense from earlier this season. Alex Collins has turned into a nice weapon for the Baltimore offense and that has taken some pressure off of Joe Flacco.
On the Cleveland side, the Browns have a strong group of wide receivers now with Coleman and Gordon both healthy. The Browns haven't been very good in the red zone in recent weeks but their yards per play numbers suggest drastic improvement.
This total is set awfully low. Baltimore's defense was on the field an extremely long time against Pittsburgh last weekend. There could definitely be some tired bodies on that side of the ball for the Ravens. Baltimore's offense has been much more aggressive in the last few weeks and they should be able to hit some long gainers against this Browns defense.
The over is 6-0 in the Ravens last 6 games in the month of December. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 10-0 angle.
Take the over.
|12-16-17||Bears v. Lions OVER 44||10-20||Loss||-105||21 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Saturday Totals SMASHER* The Detroit Lions have played 6 straight games that have gone over this total. Eight of their last nine have gone over this number. Detroit's defense ranks second to last in the NFL in total defense in the last eight games.
Chicago's offense has been bad for much of the year, but the Bears broke out with a terrific offensive performance in Cincinnati last week. The thinking here is John Fox will likely be a little more aggressive in the play calling after a good showing. Chicago ran the ball at will against Detroit in the first matchup.
Matt Stafford has been very good against the Bears. This game is being played inside the dome, so there is no weather to contend in this game. Stafford threw for 299 yards on 31 passes in the first game against Chicago.
This is a low number for a Detroit game, and I'm siding with the over.
Take the over in this one.
|12-10-17||Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 44||38-39||Loss||-107||53 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The AFC North is well known for its hard hitting style and these two teams are definitely that style.
In the AFC North, the under is a whopping 56-29 (66%) on games with a total of 41 or higher since 2004.
The weather here will play a bit of a role too. The wind is expected to be 12 mph during this one. That's enough to make it a little harder to throw the ball deep.
The Steelers are clearly short handed at linebacker, but Baltimore's offense has been really bad this year. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in yards per play. On the other hand, Baltimore is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Both teams have an excellent pass rush, and that will make the quarterbacks get rid of the ball quicker than normal.
The under is 19-8 in the Steelers last 27 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 between these teams.
Take the under.
|12-10-17||Vikings v. Panthers UNDER 41||24-31||Loss||-115||70 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings meet in what should be a really good game on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings have been the most consistent defense in the NFL. Adjusted for strength of schedule- the Vikings defense is second against the pass and third against the run. Carolina's offense has been below average all year in the passing game, and they aren't getting enough out of the running backs in the running game.
Minnesota's offense has been solid this year, but they don't move particularly fast. They have a lot of long drives that eat up the time. Carolina ranks as the third slowest team in the NFL, so the Panthers definitely use up the clock as well.
The under is 20-6 in the Vikings last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total.
Take the under.
|12-10-17||Packers v. Browns UNDER 40.5||27-21||Loss||-110||57 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Green Bay Packers rank 27th in the NFL in yards per play since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Green Bay has to rely on their running game, but the strength of this Cleveland defense is their rushing defense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in rushing defense when measured by advanced metrics.
The Browns have been really bad on offense again this year. Yes, they have better weapons on the outside now with Gordon and Coleman. I don't see them doing a ton of damage here though for two reasons: Kizer is their quarterback, and second the wind is going to be a big factor.
In the NFL, games with a total of 38 or higher with winds of 10 mph or higher have gone under the total a little better than 57% of the time in the past ten years. The wind makes a difference in Cleveland even more than most stadiums. This stadium is very close to the lake, and the wind can swirl around here easily.
Expect two conservative game plans and the defenses will have the upper hand.
Take the under.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5||23-20||Win||100||66 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. This is an AFC North rivalry. There is definitely a lot of hatred between these two teams.
The AFC North has been notorious for hard hitting football and tight low scoring games in recent years. Here's an impressive and simple system for this division:
-Playing the under on a game between AFC North foes where the total is 41 or higher has yielded a 56-28 (66.7%) win rate for the under in the last 84 contests.
Pittsburgh's defense is the strength of the team this year. The Bengals rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
The Steelers running game hasn't been as good this year and Big Ben's play has been inconsistent. The Bengals don't have a running game, and I don't trust Andy Dalton in the big game.
A big plus here is the weather too- wind of 15 mph is expected during this one with a chance of a little rain as well. The wind is a big positive for the under.
The under is 13-4 in Pittsburgh's last 17 vs. an AFC North opponent. The under is 12-4 in the Bengals last 16 vs. an AFC North foe.
Take the under.
|12-03-17||Browns v. Chargers OVER 44||10-19||Loss||-105||37 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled to get going for much of the year, but they have gotten healthier in recent weeks and they are playing great right now. Phillip Rivers is still a very good quarterback, and he has plenty of weapons around him.
The Browns defense has been pretty good against the run this year, but they are very weak against the pass. A big key here is Cleveland is without star linebacker Jamie Collins and DL Emmanuel Ogbah.
Cleveland's offense has been inconsistent, but Josh Gordon will return in this one, and the Chargers have given up quite a few big plays defensively this season.
These teams both play at a pace quicker than the league average.
The over is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games.
I see the Chargers scoring a lot here and the Browns scoring plenty to get this past the total.
Take the over.
|12-03-17||Colts v. Jaguars -9.5||10-30||Win||100||34 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't normally a team I'd lay this many points with, but I think the matchups here warrant it.
Jacksonville has the best pass rush in the NFL. Indianapolis has been the worst in the NFL when it comes to pass protection, and it really isn't even close. What happened the first time these two met? Jacksonville had a whopping ten sacks.
Indianapolis is coming off a deflating loss where they actually led much of the game. Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Arizona. I think this is a better spot for Jacksonville to get back on track.
Jacksonville runs the football well and the Colts should struggle to stop them. The first time around it was a blowout when these two met. I don't think it will be close here either.
The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Jaguars. A 10-0 angle.
|12-03-17||Vikings v. Falcons UNDER 47||14-9||Win||100||34 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Minnesota defense is equally strong against the pass and the run. There is no weakness in this unit. Atlanta's defense is surprisingly 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They are clearly improved on defense from last season. Also, Atlanta's offensive efficiency isn't quite what it was a year ago. Matt Ryan does miss Kyle Shanahan.
Neither of these teams play particularly fast. The Vikings are a touch faster than the league average and the Falcons are a bit slower than the league average.
I expect both offenses will find it harder to break big plays than normal in this one. This is a pretty high total in today's NFL.
This is a measuring stick game for both teams. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand.
Take the under.
|11-26-17||Packers v. Steelers UNDER 43.5||28-31||Loss||-107||18 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Green Bay Packers are averaging only 13.4 points per game since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Brett Hundley hasn't been the answer, and the offensive line is banged up. The Packers are also without Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery is doubtful. This offense is badly beaten up.
Pittsburgh's defense has been consistently very good this year. The Steelers have ranked in the top five or six in nearly every defensive statistic this season. I don't see them giving up much here.
The Green Bay defense has been improved in recent weeks. Ben Roethlisberger has been sick this week and is listed as probable here, but he's less than 100 percent. The Steelers offensive line hasn't been getting as much of a push in the running game this season.
Both of these teams have been slowing much slower than the league average in pace of play.
In the last 3 years, NFL home teams who are favored by 13 points or more at home with a total of less than 48 points have seen the under go a perfect 9-0. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle.
Take the under.
|11-26-17||Bucs +10 v. Falcons||20-34||Loss||-105||11 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs catch the Atlanta Falcons in a tough spot here. Atlanta is coming off a Monday night win in Seattle. That was a big win for the Falcons, and they were on an emotional high Monday night.
Now, the Falcons must come home and play a Tampa Bay team that isn't very good after that huge win. It's clearly a letdown spot. More importantly, they have a short week to get ready.
Tampa Bay is healthier now than they were a few weeks ago, and the Bucs have put together a couple wins in a row.
Here's an angle I like a lot in this one- fading teams coming off playing Seattle. That has been a great angle in the past few years and it is especially strong when fading a team that is favored in their next game. Fading a team off a game vs. the physical Seattle Seahawks that is favored and doesn't have a bye week before their next game has gone 50-26 ATS in the last 76 contests.
I'll grab the points here with the Bucs. They'll probably lose, but I think it stays closer than expected.
Take Tampa Bay.
|11-26-17||Bears v. Eagles UNDER 44.5||3-31||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Eagles are coming off a really big win at Dallas last weekend. That's a rivalry game where Philly puts a bunch into that contest. It would be easy for the Eagles to let up a little here.
Chicago isn't very good on offense. They are extremely reliant on the running game. The strength of the Eagles defense is their front seven. Philadelphia is very likely to stack up the box and dare Chicago to beat them through the air. The Eagles pass rush is elite and the Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection.
The Bears defense is really underrated. This is a unit that has kept the Bears in a lot of games this season. The Eagles will move the ball here as they always do, but I think the Bears slow them down and hold them to field goals more often than normal.
The weather here looks less than ideal. Winds of 13 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are forecast for this contest. That's a positive for the under.
Take the under.
|11-23-17||Vikings -2.5 v. Lions||30-23||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Lions/Vikings ATS CASH* The Detroit Lions went to Minnesota and won earlier this year. I think Minnesota returns the favor here. Detroit was outgained by Minnesota in that first game, but the Vikings lost three fumbles in that one. They are unlikely to do that again.
Since the first time they met, the Vikings have been playing much better. Detroit has been outgained in 7 of their 10 games this year. The Lions are certainly fortunate to be 6-4 on the season. What about Minnesota? The Vikings have outgained their opponent in 9 of 10 games this season.
Minnesota ranks third in yards per play allowed. The Vikings defense is very good against both the run and the pass. Detroit is one dimensional on offense with the passing game being the only way they typically move the ball. Minnesota's defensive line should overpower Detroit here.
Detroit's defense is 25th in yards per play allowed. The Lions aren't a really good team, and the sharp money has come in on Minnesota here. I agree with that move, and I'll back the team with the much better defense and some balance on offense.
Detroit is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
|11-19-17||Eagles -3 v. Cowboys||37-9||Win||100||147 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Philadelphia Eagles* The Dallas Cowboys are saying Sean Lee will likely miss this game. Lee is the heart and soul of this defense, and their numbers without him are drastically worse than they are with him on the field.
Tyron Smith is questionable, and I would guess he either won't play here or won't be himself. He has multiple injuries and has been very hobbles. Dallas allowed 8 sacks Sunday against Atlanta after allowing a grand total of 10 all season before the Atlanta game.
The Eagles are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. I've been extremely impressed by the balance of this Eagles offense. Carson Wentz is the real deal and he's surrounded by some very good weapons. I like the addition of Jay Ajayi.
Dallas is a good team when healthy, but they are likely to be without several stars here.
Lay the points with the rested and healthy Eagles.
*As the injury news has come in- this line has risen. I do still like Philly here as Dallas is without several very key players to their team. Thank you. *
|11-19-17||Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders||33-8||Win||100||143 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New England Patriots play the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City this week. This game is played at elevation, and that's a major factor.
The Patriots are an organization that gets an edge every way they can, and it shows by their success on the field. New England is spending the week in Colorado and practicing at elevation so they are well prepared for the conditions.
New England's offense has been excellent in recent weeks. They are going up against an Oakland secondary that is without both of their starting cornerbacks. That should be a big problem against Tom Brady and this offense.
I consider Jack Del Rio one of the worst coaches in the NFL. We all know where Bill Belichick stands when it comes to the coaching ranks.
I expect this line to go up further, so I'm grabbing this one now.
New England's offense takes advantage of a banged up Oakland defense and rolls to a victory.
Take New England.
|11-19-17||Patriots v. Raiders OVER 54||33-8||Loss||-113||37 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots have the number one ranked pass offense in terms of efficiency. Who has the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency? The Oakland Raiders. Tom Brady should have a big game here, and I expect New England to be put up a big number.
Oakland's pass rush has been poor this year, and New England has been blocking well. When Brady has this much time to throw against a weak secondary, that generally equals great things for the Patriots offense.
Derek Carr has looked healthier of late, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 30th. Carr should hook up with his receivers in the open field several times as well.
The elevation is a positive in Mexico City in my mind for points. Tired defenses generally lead to blown assignments.
I like this to be a high scoring game.
Take the over.
|11-19-17||Lions v. Bears UNDER 42||27-24||Loss||-115||133 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have played four games at home this year. The highest scoring game was 23-17 (in overtime) against Pittsburgh and 23-17 against Atlanta in the season opener.
The Bears have an ultra-conservative offense now. They aren't taking many chances with Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears have the second highest running plays as a percentage of their overall offensive plays in the NFL behind only the Jaguars.
Detroit's secondary isn't very good, but the Lions rank top ten in the NFL at stopping the run. Detroit should be ready for the running game here.
Chicago's defense has been solid in all ways this year. Detroit is awfully one-dimensional with the passing game, and with the weather forecast here that could be trouble.
There is a storm coming through Chicago this weekend and 20 mph winds are forecast at Soldier Field on Sunday. That will impact the game and make throwing more difficult and both teams will likely run more than normal.
Take the under.
|11-19-17||Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 37||19-7||Win||100||33 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for 25 mph winds coming off the lake during this game. There is also a chance of snow showers throughout this one. This will be really bad conditions, and history has shown that conditions like this are great for the under.
Winds of 10 mph or more with totals of 35 or higher and a temperature of 78 or lower- the under is 57.5% in the last ten years. What about at Cleveland? In Cleveland, the under is 10-2 in the last 12 games with the wind at 10 mph or greater and temperatures of below 50 degrees. The wind changes the game at First Energy Stadium more than the average stadium in the league.
50% of the tickets written to this point are on the under, but 90% of the money is on the under. The sharps love this one and I see the value too.
The Jaguars will run the ball a ton here, but Cleveland ranks top five in the NFL in rushing defense.
The under is 4-0 in the Jags last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more passing. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 on grass.
Take the under.
|11-12-17||Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons||7-27||Loss||-108||15 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Dallas Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot here, but this is still a good team. In fact, with Sean Lee in the lineup on defense, I believe this is a very good Cowboys team.
What have the Falcons proven so far this year? Atlanta was very fortunate to beat the Lions early in the year. The Falcons lost at home to both the Bills and the Dolphins. They were beaten badly by New England. Atlanta was terrific last year, but they haven't proven much this season.
Dallas' defense is in my estimation a little better than Atlanta's. The Cowboys are a different unit with Lee on the field. Atlanta's primary weakness on defense is stopping the run, and Dallas should have little trouble running the ball here even without Elliot. The Cowboys offensive front is tremendous.
Kyle Shanahan is definitely missed by Atlanta. The offense hasn't been as efficient this year, and that starts with numbers that are way down for Matt Ryan. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a loss.
I'll grab the points in a game that should be very close.
|11-12-17||Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 41||17-20||Win||100||34 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has easily been the best in the NFL against the pass. The LA Chargers are throwing the ball on 62.4% of their plays so far this year. The Chargers offensive line has performed well this year, but Jacksonville has been best in the league in rushing the passer. Rivers will have less time than normal to throw here. The Jags secondary should make LA struggle far more than normal through the air.
The Jaguars run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are running it on almost 53% of their plays on offense. Look for them to run the ball and go on long drives that eat up a lot of clock here. Jacksonville has struggled to punch it in the end zone consistently, and that likely continues here. The Chargers defense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three contests.
There is clear sharp money here on the under, and I agree. I think both defenses play well in this one.
The under is 5-0 in the Chargers last 5 vs. the AFC.
Take the under.