|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-12-19||Penguins -123 v. Islanders||1-3||Loss||-123||18 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Penguins ML* The Pittsburgh Penguins outshot the New York Islanders 44-33 in Game One, but they lost 4-3 in overtime. Pittsburgh didn't get many good scoring chances early, but they got some great chances late in the game. The Penguins outplayed the Islanders in the last couple periods, but they couldn't get the win.
The road favorite has been money in the first round of the NHL playoffs, and that angle gets even stronger when they are off a playoff loss. How strong is the angle?
Road teams coming off a loss and favored anywhere between -101 and -135 on the moneyline are a whopping 35-8 in the last 43 spots. Those averaging more than 31 shots on goal per game are an amazing 23-2 in this spot. Pittsburgh fits both of these systems.
I still believe the Penguins are the better team, and this is a huge game for them. I'll back the system and the Penguins here.
|04-10-19||Penguins -101 v. Islanders||3-4||Loss||-101||18 h 0 m||Show|
*4 Star NHL System Play* I don't play many NHL contests, but there are some strong angles for this one. The situation here calls for a play on the Pittsburgh Penguins. There are a couple really strong systems I've followed that like this one a lot.
The team with postseason experience in the first round of the NHL playoffs vs. the team who didn't go to the postseason last year is a strong angle. In this system- lines of -180 or lower with a team who averages 29.5 shots on goal or more per game is a whopping 103-52 (66.5%) with an ROI of 22.5%.
Road teams in the first round of the playoffs in the NHL have done very well also. In games 1-5 of the series road teams priced at -101 or higher are 48-21 in the last 69 contests.
Pittsburgh is the team with the higher upside, and this is a short price.
|12-13-18||Hurricanes v. Canadiens -110||4-6||Win||100||16 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Montreal ML* It's a chance for quick revenge here. Montreal lost 2-1 to Carolina on November 27. Montreal had 49 shots on goal in that game. Carolina had only 22 shots on goal.
Carolina has beaten Montreal in five straight meetings, but I like this spot for Montreal. Carolina plays Washington at home on Friday, and that's a game they should be looking forward to in a big way.
Montreal was just beaten 7-1 in their last game, and they have played well at home this year. This sets up as a bounce back opportunity for the Canadiens. I like the price here.
|12-03-18||Oilers +110 v. Stars||1-4||Loss||-100||8 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oilers ML* The Edmonton Oilers are playing some good hockey since Ken Hitchcock took over. Hitchcock returns to Dallas here, and you would certainly think his new team would want to play hard for him here.
Dallas is the much more banged up team. The Stars will be without Blake Comeau in this one, and he's an important part of this team. The Stars will start Anton Khudobin here instead of Ben Bishop. That's a pretty big step backward. Khudobin has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 5 starts in goal. For the season his save percentage is only 91.1%.
Edmonton's defense has been much better since Hitchcock took over. The Oilers start Mikko Koskinen in goal tonight. Koskinen has a save percentage of 93.96% this year. Edmonton is 4-0-1 in his starts in goal since Hitchcock took over.
Edmonton has the advantage in goal, and the Oilers should be highly motivated to win for their boss who returns to his old home.
|11-15-18||Panthers v. Blue Jackets -124||3-7||Win||100||16 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Columbus* The Columbus Blue Jackets are easily the better rested team here. Florida is playing their 4th game in 6 days here. Columbus is well rested and I believe they are the better team here. The Blue Jackets have one of the top five goalies in the NHL, and they have absolutely owned this series. Florida is just 1-10 in their last 11 games in Columbus. The Panthers are only 5-16 in their last 21 games overall against the Blue Jackets.
The price here is cheaper than it should be because of Florida's hot streak of late. I'll take the home team in this one.
|11-05-18||Flyers v. Coyotes -119||5-2||Loss||-119||6 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Arizona* The Philadelphia Flyers are in a difficult spot here. This has been a long road trip for them. The Flyers are coming off an overtime loss to San Jose. That was a very hard fought game and it was only two days ago. They now end the road trip with a game in Arizona. Can they come back with a strong effort in this spot? It won't be easy.
The Flyers have gotten some really bad goaltending this year. Arizona has two very good goalies. Darcy Kuemper will start here, and he has a .957 save percentage on the year and the team is 4-1 in his starts.
Lay the short price here.
|11-01-18||Avalanche v. Flames -115||5-6||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Calgary ML* Calgary is playing its 4th game in 6 days and its 3rd game in 4 days, but the price has gotten too cheap here. The Flames are the better team and Colorado has proven to be much better at home than on the road in recent seasons.
Calgary has also played well in these spots despite playing so many games close to each other. Calgary is 19-7 in their last 26 when playing their 4th game in 6 days. They are 17-7 in their last 24 games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
Colorado is 21-54 in their last 75 road games. The Avs are also 1-6 in their last 7 games against Calgary.
I'll take Calgary on this cheap price.
|10-25-18||Predators -117 v. Devils||4-3||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nashville ML* Nashville is one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the NHL, and it is very rare to be able to get them at this price. The Predators face a New Jersey team that is dealing with quite a few injuries. Look for Nashville's speed to get the best of New Jersey in this matchup.
Nashville has proven to be excellent against good teams in the past. The Predators are 37-18 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. They are also road warriors, going 22-7 in their last 29 road games. Nashville is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference.
The road team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
|10-08-18||Golden Knights -134 v. Sabres||2-4||Loss||-134||2 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on the Vegas Golden Knights ML* The Buffalo Sabres haven't been a good team for a long time. This is a team that lacks offensive firepower in a big way. Vegas started the season with a disappointing blowout loss to the Flyers, and I think that has perception on them too low.
Vegas is still a very good team, and good teams on the road early in the season have been very good in the long run.
Perception isn't reality in many games early in the NHL season. Bettors remember the big losses early in the year. Vegas was blown out right away, but they rebounded with a win over a pretty good Minnesota team. I think they keep it going against Buffalo today.
|10-04-18||Bruins -120 v. Sabres||4-0||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Boston Bruins* The Boston Bruins were embarrassed 7-0 by the Washington Capitals last night. Over the years, the NHL is a place to expect a bounce back from good teams. Teams who were beaten by 6 goals or more have been very good in their next game. The angle is the strongest when they have no days off between. That's the spot Boston is in tonight.
They are also a top ten team in the NHL and Buffalo is considered by many a bottom 5 or 6 team in the NHL. Early season road favorites have done well overall also.
I think Boston comes out ready to play after getting throttled last night.
Take the Bruins.
|10-03-18||Ducks v. Sharks UNDER 5.5||5-2||Loss||-120||22 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star NHL Opening Night CASH* The San Jose Sharks have had a good defense the last couple seasons, but they got even better in the offseason. In Karlsson, Burns, and Vlasic- you could make a good argument that the Sharks have the best defensive trio in the NHL. Their depth on defense is improved from last year as well.
The Ducks have a top six or eight goalie in the NHL, and they have all kinds of depth on defense right in front of John Gibson. Anaheim doesn't have nearly as much offensive talent as the average NHL team.
Anaheim was sixth on the penalty kill last year. San Jose was second on the penalty kill. San Jose was 16th on the power play last year. Anaheim was 23rd on the power play.
The under has been a great play when these two meet in the last few years. In their last 10 meetings, only two of them have gone over the total. The under is 44-20 in the last 64 meetings between these two teams.
Take the under.
|06-07-18||Capitals v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5||4-3||Win||100||19 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights have to win to keep their season alive here. Vegas pushes the pace and in the first two games of this series played at Vegas there were all kinds of quality looks on goal.
Washington has gotten great goalie play from Holtby, but they do still have questionable defense in front of Holtby.
The Knights are having trouble with the Capitals offensive passing game around the net.
Because of the importance of this game, a pulled goalie early leading to an easy score or two wouldn't be a surprise.
Take the over.
|06-04-18||Golden Knights v. Capitals -128||2-6||Win||100||21 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Capitals ML* The Washington Capitals have a red hot goalie in Holtby, and the Capitals are playing their best hockey of the season. Washington has missed so many chances in recent seasons to win it all, and now this year they are just two wins away from finishing the deal and winning the cup.
Vegas' fast-paced offense is getting shots on goal, but they haven't been high quality scoring opportunities as much as expected. The Capitals have had a great gameplan for this series.
This line is too low on the home team.
|05-10-18||Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5||5-1||Win||122||19 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets are both teams that play at a quick pace. There have been tons of great scoring opportunities both in the regular season meetings and in this playoff series between these two.
When it comes to expected goals- none of the first six games were under 5.5 goals. There were a couple great showings by the goalies in there, but the offenses continue to produce great scoring chances.
Looking at the last ten meetings between these two teams, six of those games have finished with 8 goals or more. Yes, this is a game 7 and it means a ton to both teams, but that is more than priced into this line.
We're getting a significant plus money price on the over at 5.5 when the over was 6 (-105) just a couple games ago in this series.
The losing team would be very aggressive pulling the goalie late here which could lead to empty netters late.
Take the over.
|05-06-18||Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5||3-0||Loss||-100||15 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Over* Vegas and San Jose have met nine times this year. Six of the nine meetings have seen at least 7 goals scored. Vegas is pushing the pace as much as they can in this series, and it is leading to opportunities both ways.
The goalies in this series have only been mediocre to this point. There have been a lot of rebound chances for each side.
This is a spot where we could see plenty of empty net chances late because of desperation as well.
Take the over.
|04-30-18||Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5||4-3||Win||121||19 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks have met six times this season. Four of those contests have finished with 7 goals or more. Vegas has a ton of speed and is good at creating quick scoring chances. San Jose has a major offensive weapon back in this one as Evander Kane returns from a suspension.
In the NHL playoffs, taking a plus money price on the over has been profitable in the long run. With a total of less than 6 goals and a plus money price- when both teams are allowing a defensive shooting percentage of 8.4% or higher the over has a 13.4% ROI in the last 15 years. In the last 10 years the ROI in this situation is 21%.
This price gives us a good chance to grab the over. Look for a good amount of scoring chances each way.
Take the over.
|04-23-18||Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5||6-3||Win||101||16 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jackets host the Capitals in a game where Columbus will look to stay alive after leading 2-0 to start this series. A theme in this series has been lots of shots on goal. There have been at least 70 shots on goal total in 3 of the last 4 games.
All shots on goal aren't created equal though, and that's what has made games between these two unique over time. Both teams are good at creating great scoring chances. There is a lot of pressure on the defenses and the goalies in these contests.
Six of the last nine games between these two have gone over the total. The three that stayed under all finished with 5 goals.
Expect aggressive play and we could certainly see extended time with an empty net late in the game if someone has a lead.
Take the over.
|04-16-18||Predators v. Avalanche OVER 5.5||3-5||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Predators and Avalanche have met six times this year. Only one of those contests finished under 5.5 goals, and that was a 4-1 contest. Four of the six have seen at least 7 goals scored.
Colorado is without their top goalie (Varlamov) and Bernier is one of the weakest goalies in the playoffs. Nashville puts a bunch of shots on goal, and they are good at creating high danger scoring chances.
Colorado looks to push the pace of the game, and they are even better at forcing the issue when they are on home ice as they are for this one. The Avalanche aren't only without Varlamov. The loss of Erik Johnson hurts this team's defense quite a bit as well. Colorado's defense was never great, and without those two it is much weaker.
Colorado will generate plenty of shots with their fast pace, and Rinne has been below average against Colorado in his career.
Take the over.
|04-15-18||Penguins -107 v. Flyers||5-1||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star NHL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Penguins were blown out at home last game after winning big in game one. The advanced stats show that the Penguins had possession of the puck most of the time even in their 5-1 loss last game though, and they had better scoring chances and more of them than Philadelphia had.
These teams have played six times now this season, and in only one of those games has the expected goal value of the Flyers been higher than the Penguins. The Penguins corsi for percentage in this two game series thus far has easily bested the Flyers. They are getting great chances at scoring. They should keep getting those.
Brian Elliot entered last game with a horrible 83.5% save percentage against Pittsburgh this year. Elliot has been poor in the playoffs in his career too, and one great showing (last game) shouldn't change opinions too much.
The Penguins are 13-3 in their last 16 road playoff games after losing at home.
A really strong 100% system backs this selection- a road team coming off a loss (between game 2 and game 7 of the series) favored at a price of -125 or less who is averaging 31 shots on goal or more per game are a perfect 20-0 in the last 20 spots in the NHL playoffs first round. Pittsburgh fits this system.
|04-12-18||Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 5.5||4-3||Win||107||3 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets both play at a fast pace. These teams have a history of some high scoring games against each other.
Phillip Grubauer and Sergei Bobrovsky have both been good this year, but Grubauer doesn't have playoff experience and that hurts a lot here. Bobrovsky's career save percentage in the playoffs is below 89%. There are question marks here.
The over is 5-0 in the Capitals last 5 games when playing on three days of rest or more. The over is 13-3 in the Blue Jackets last 16 road games.
The first round of the NHL playoffs has actually been good for overs long-term, especially plus money overs.
Take the over.
|04-12-18||Maple Leafs +145 v. Bruins||1-5||Loss||-100||16 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Toronto ML* The Toronto Maple Leafs are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings with the Boston Bruins. Head to head matchups aren't always predictive of course, but the Maple Leafs should roll into Boston with plenty of confidence here.
Anderson has outplayed Rask all year, and Anderson has the capability to dominate a game and help Toronto steal one here.
Toronto's offensive firepower is very impressive. Matthews and company should get plenty of good chances here, and Babcock is one of the best coaches in the league. Expect a good game plan from him.
Road dogs have done really well in round one of the playoffs in the long run.