|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-16-18||Steelers v. Packers -5.5||34-51||Win||100||15 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Packers ATS* The Steelers will be without Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell here. Josh Dobbs and Mason Rudolph will get extended time at QB for the Steelers here. Rudolph has some upside but is inexperienced here. Dobbs is a guy I'm not very high on in general.
Aaron Rodgers is expected to play here, and that's a big boost to the Packers even if it is only for a series or two. Green Bay has a big battle going on for the backup job between Brett Hundley and Deshone Kizer. No those two aren't great quarterbacks, but they are better than the guys who will be under center for most teams in the preseason, and they both have a lot of NFL experience already.
Green Bay is 7-2 straight up in their last 9 preseason games. McCarthy values the preseason more than some other coaches. The Steelers are 7-15 SU in their last 22 preseason games. Green Bay is 9-3 SU in their last 12 in week two of the preseason.
The Packers have far more position battles going on and that should keep them more motivated here in front of their home fans.
Take Green Bay.
|08-29-15||Washington Redskins v. Baltimore Ravens -4||31-13||Loss||-109||17 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Preseason POWER Play* The Baltimore Ravens are 20-10 straight up and 18-12 ATS under John Harbaugh. Harbaugh clearly places an emphasis on playing hard in the preseason. Washington tries hard during the preseason under Gruden as well, but with Baltimore playing the starters much longer than normal in week three here I don't think Washington stays close. Flacco saw 41 snaps in week three last year, and he'll see a lot again here. Week three of the preseason is considered the most like a regular season game, and if the Ravens were only laying four at home against Washington in the regular season everyone would be on them. Take Baltimore here.
|08-23-14||Washington Redskins v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5||17-23||Win||100||16 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Preseason Best Bet Selection* The Baltimore Ravens have been a great team to back in the preseason under coach Jon Harbaugh. Harbaugh places an emphasis on getting it right in the preseason. The Ravens are 17-9 straight up in his 26 preseason games. They are 4-2 in week three. Baltimore has a very deep defense, and that gives them a significant edge over a Washington team that doesn't even have a decent first string defense. Look for Flacco and his solid receivers to get some more time this week, and they should put up some numbers against a poor secondary. RG3 still isn't looking like his old self, and the Ravens defense should make him uncomfortable throughout this game. Baltimore at this small price is a very nice value in week three of the preseason. Take Baltimore.
|08-16-14||Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Dallas Cowboys||37-30||Win||100||15 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Preseason ATS POWER Play* The Dallas Cowboys have had depth problems on the defensive side of the ball the last couple years. In the NFL Preseason, depth is everything since the starters won't play for long. The Dallas defensive starters aren't good, and the backups are even worse. The Ravens allowed just 3 points in last week's win over the 49ers, and to me that showed a Ravens defense with plenty of depth and the ability to play at a high level without stars on the field. John Harbaugh is 16-9 in the preseason in his time as the Ravens coach. Jason Garrett is 0-3 in week two of the preseason as the Cowboys coach and the Ravens are 4-2 in week two under Harbaugh. The Ravens are the better team and they appear likely to be the more motivated team here as well. Take Baltimore.
|08-18-12||Kansas City Chiefs v. St Louis Rams||17-31||Loss||-110||73 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Exhibition Bookie BEATDOWN* The Kansas City Chiefs were the most injured team in the NFL last year. Some of their most important players missed nearly the entire year with injuries. Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, and others should be back and healthy this season. The Chiefs are a much better team than most people realize right now, and I think they are playing with some extra motivation in the preseason because of the way last year went. The best way to build confidence is to win football games, and I think that will be the goal of the Chiefs right now. The Rams are likely to show some fight here after their listless 38-3 loss last week. Still, the Rams simply don't have the depth to be a good team in this type of setting. Look for KC to win this one.
|08-18-11||Philadelphia Eagles v. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5||14-24||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Bookie BEATDOWN* The Philadelphia Eagles are getting a ton of love from the public right now. I understand that the Eagles have made some huge offseason pickups, but that doesn't matter much in the preseason. The Eagles are 19-30 in preseason games under coach andy Reid. Reid clearly doesn't value preseason games all that highly. On the other side, the Steelers are 13-5 in preseason gams under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers lost in week one of the preseason and I think they'll see this as a good opportunity to build some momentum at home in week two of the preseason. I'll take the more motivated Steelers here.
|08-13-11||Green Bay Packers v. Cleveland Browns -2.5||17-27||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Play of the Day* The Green Bay Packers are clearly the better team in this matchup, but that doesn't always equal a victory in the preseason. The Packers lost 27-24 to the Browns in week one of the preseason at home in Lambeau Field last year. This year the game will be played in Cleveland. Cleveland should be playing hard for new head coach Pat Shurmur. The Browns have a lot of battles for the top spot on the depth chart, which should mean the first and second teams will get a lot of reps. The Packers know who their first team is (the group that won the Super Bowl). I think the motivational factor will push the Browns to the win in this first preseason game for both teams. Browns -2.5.
|08-28-10||Seattle Seahawks v. Minnesota Vikings -5||13-24||Win||100||17 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Game of the Week* The Seahawks have yet to travel on the road in the preseason, and they are nursing some key injuries to the offensive line. Jared Allen should have no problem getting to Matt Hasselbeck in this one. It is the Vikings first home game in the preseason and this one will likely be quite important to Minnesota. Expect Favre and Peterson to play quite a bit in this one. I don't think Seattle can stop the running game of the Vikings, so Minnesota would be wise to feed Peterson and even Toby Gerhart later in the game. The Vikings are the much better team here and since this game will probably mean a lot to them, I think five points is a great value. Take the Vikings -5!