|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-20-19||Stars v. Predators -140||Top||5-3||Loss||-140||11 h 16 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Dallas Stars. The Preds felt pretty good after victories in Games 2 and 3 of this series, but the defense fell apart in Game 4 -- an easy 5-1 win for the Stars at home. Now it's back to Nashville with the series all tied up at two games apiece. The Stars were just 19-22 on the road during the regular season, and Nashville is always a tough place for visiting teams in the post-season, especially in the first round. The fact that they got blown out in Game 4 may be a blessing in disguise as the Predators are 5-1 in their last six (37-14 in their last 51) after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. And they are 14-2 in their last 16 games following a loss by three or more goals. The Stars are 29-60 in their last 89 games as a road underdog and 9-26 (-24 games on the money line) after scoring five or more goals in their previous game. Take Nashville. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-20-19||76ers v. Nets +1.5||Top||112-108||Loss||-104||11 h 11 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia. The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly. We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points. Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses. Take Brooklyn.
|04-19-19||Reds v. Padres -130||Top||3-2||Loss||-130||17 h 37 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds. With perhaps the best lineup they've had in over a decade, along with a deep young pitching staff with a bunch of other youngsters waiting in the wings, there is more optimism in San Diego regarding the Padres than there has been in quite some time. And when you consider that the NL West is as competitive as any division in the Majors, then it's not unrealistic to assume that the Pads can beat the Dodgers and finish on top in October. They will go with 27-year-old LHP Matt Strahm tonight in Game 2 of this series with the Reds. Strahm posted a sharp 2.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last season in 41 appearances (five starts). Those numbers seem to have earned Strahm a full-time starting role this season. And although he's struggled so far (0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts), it's important to note that this will be his first start of 2019 against a losing team. The Reds will go with RHP Anthony DeSclafani tonight and they are 0-7 in his last seven trips to the mound. Take San Diego. As always, good luck. Al McMordie.
|04-19-19||Avalanche v. Flames -170||Top||5-1||Loss||-170||17 h 35 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Colorado Avalanche. Add the Avalanche and Flames to the growing list of first round surprises in this year's NHL Playoffs. After winning the first game of this series convincingly, the Flames have now fallen in three straight and stand just one game away from elimination heading into Game 5 tonight back at home. The #1 seed in the West cannot afford to allow 52 shots like it did in Game 4 in Denver on Wednesday. But on the bright side, if you're a Calgary fan, is the fact that, despite the lopsided shot totals, the game still went into overtime. Unfortunately, a Mikko Rantanen goal with 10 minutes left in the extra stanza extinguished the Flames by a 3-2 final score. The Flames knew that winning two in Colorado would be tough so now they will rely on their own home ice advantage which worked well for them in the regular season (26-10-5). Moreover, the Avs are just 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the Flames. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-19-19||Blazers v. Thunder -7.5||Top||108-120||Win||100||16 h 4 m||Show|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland. The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3. We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991. Take Oklahoma City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-19-19||Phillies +118 v. Rockies||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||15 h 8 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies. There's no doubt now who the best starter on the Rockies is. RHP German Marquez won 14 games last season and he's off to one of the best starts of any pitcher in the league in 2019, going 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA and league-leading 0.70 WHIP in four starts. And all he did in his last start was throw a one-hit, complete game in a 4-0 win over the Giants. But before we make Marquez the next Bob Gibson, notice that his three best starts -- by far -- came on the road (including the last one). But in his only start at Coors Field, he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings with just two strikeouts. In fact, for his career, Marquez has a 4.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 33 games (32 starts) here, compared to 3.41 and 1.18 in 39 games (37 starts) elsewhere. The Phils will go with RH Vince Velasquez, who has had issues with walks in the past, This season, however, he has reduced his walk rate from 3.6 per 9 IP to just 2.3 in his three outings. Key Stat: the Rockies are an awful 1-6 with Marquez on the mound after he allowed 0 earned runs in his last outing. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-19-19||Celtics v. Pacers -3||Top||104-96||Loss||-103||15 h 60 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston. The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads. Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series. The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.
|04-19-19||Raptors v. Magic UNDER 210||Top||98-93||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total. The first two games of this series went 'under' the total. And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014). The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991. Take the 'under.'
|04-18-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237||Top||132-105||Push||0||19 h 58 m||Show|
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game. The #1-seeded Warriors blew a 31-point lead in Game 2, and they fell to the Clippers, 135-131. That was the 2nd-most points the Warriors have given up all season, and the reason was their defense in the 2nd half. Golden State actually led 73-50 at halftime. But it shockingly gave up 85 points in the 2nd half. Coach Steve Kerr will no doubt emphasize defense for this road game at Staples Center. And it should comfortably sail under the total, which is a very high number. Indeed, dating back to 1991, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 83% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-18-19||Reds v. Padres -157||Top||4-1||Loss||-157||19 h 32 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Cincinnati. The Padres are off to an 11-8 start this season, though they have dropped their last three in a row. Tonight, they'll hand the ball to rookie RHP Chris Paddack, who has been brilliant in his three starts this season. Paddack's ERA is a sparkling 1.29, and his WHIP is 0.85. And the Padres have won each of his three starts. Cincinnati is 5-11 on the season, but it's 4-3 when favored, yet 1-9 as an underdog. And its only win as an underdog this season was when it was an extremely small underdog, at +105, in a game at Monterrey, Mexico vs. St. Louis. Lay the wood with the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-18-19||Golden Knights v. Sharks -113||Top||2-5||Win||100||18 h 29 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Sharks return home for Game 5 with their post-season lives hanging by a thread. After taking Game 1 here last Wednesday, San Jose has been steamrolled by the defending Western Conference Champs, losing the next three games by a combined 16-6. Monday's Game 4 on the Strip was especially bad, as the Knights never gave the visitors a chance in a 5-0 shellacking. Look for the Sharks to mix up some lines tonight as they try to get back to the form that won them 46 games in the regular season -- 25 of them here at home. The Sharks also will get the services of C Joe Thornton back tonight, as the veteran leader had to sit out game four to serve a one-game suspension. The Knights are 1-5 in their last six road games and 5-16 in their last 21 as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Jose is 8-1 when playing with revenge from a shutout loss, and 13-1 at home after losing by more than two goals in its previous game. Take the Sharks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-18-19||Mariners +108 v. Angels||Top||11-10||Win||108||18 h 27 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels. Once one of the most feared starters in baseball, RHP Felix Hernandez is now basically an afterthought in the landscape of AL starters. In fact, with the struggles that King Felix has had over the past few seasons, it's easy to forget that the former Cy Young award winner is only 33 years old. And if you ask him, Hernandez would probably say he has a lot of baseball left in his arm. His numbers so far this season would seem to back up that claim as King Felix has a 4.38 ERA in his three starts with a sparkling 10:1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 12 1/3 innings. He was a tough-luck loser in his last start, getting beaten by the first-place Astros despite six strong innings. King Felix faced the Angels in his first start this season on April 1 -- a 6-3 Mariners victory in which he allowed one ER over 5 1/3 innings. Seattle is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Halos and 4-1 in the last five here in Anaheim. Take the M's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-18-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5||Top||108-118||Win||100||17 h 29 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver. We played on the Nuggets in Game 2, and got the $$$ when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in the 2nd half for a nine-point comeback victory. One of the reasons played against San Antonio was its god-awful record on the road when installed as an underdog of more than 4 points (now 1-30 straight-up since May 2017). However, at home, the Spurs have dominated, with a 43-10 SU record (34-19 ATS). And Gregg Popovich's men have been especially strong when playing with revenge. Dating back to March 2018, the Spurs are 22-3 straight-up and 21-4 ATS in this role! Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Flames -104 v. Avalanche||Top||2-3||Loss||-104||16 h 36 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Colorado Avalanche. Like their #1-seeded partners over in the Eastern Conference, the Flames are in a bit a trouble in their first round series (though won't be swept like Tampa Bay was). After looking every bit the part of a top seed in the first game when they blanked the Avs 4-0 at home, the Flames have stumbled in Games 2 +3, and now find themselves down 2-1 heading into this crucial Game 4 in Denver. Look for Calgary to tighten up the defense considerably tonight as it can ill-afford to give up another 56 shots to the home team as it did on Monday. The Avs are thin at the center position with Derick Brassard suffering from an illness and Vladislav Kamenek still sidelined with a shoulder injury. Neither is expected to suit up tonight. Despite their loss on Monday, the Flames are still 9-3 in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 in the last five here at the Pepsi Center. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Jazz +6.5 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-103||15 h 6 m||Show|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston. The 4th-seeded Rockets blew out Utah 122-90 in Game 1 behind 29 points from James Harden. Unfortunately for Houston, NBA #4 seeds are a money-burning 0-19 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes in the first round of the Playoffs, as favorites of more than 3 points, if they were off a SU/ATS win. Even worse for Houston: Utah's 17-8 ATS as a road underdog off a double-digit Playoff loss, while Houston has covered just 9 of 32 games as a home favorite after a double-digit home win in its previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Pistons +15 v. Bucks||Top||99-120||Loss||-100||14 h 37 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee. Virtually everything went right for Mike Budenholzer's men in Game 1. They sprinted out to a 38-18 lead after the first quarter, en route to a 35-point victory. Milwaukee, of course, was aided by the fact that the Pistons' Blake Griffin was sidelined with a knee injury. Griffin has been ruled out for the remainder of this series, as well, and his absence has been accounted for in the game 2 point spread. We'll take the underdog in tonight's game, as teams off Playoff blowout wins by 35+ points have been atrocious (22% ATS the past 29 years) in their next game. Take the Pistons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Diamondbacks v. Braves -153||Top||3-2||Loss||-153||13 h 50 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves took advantage of the Baltimore Orioles' fire sale in the second half of last season and picked up a few players from them for virtually nothing. The most significant of those acquisitions was hard-throwing RHP Kevin Gausman. Gausman has a fastball that regularly hits 96 MPH and the Braves figured they could work with him on his consistency -- something the Orioles apparently weren't able to do. You can't teach a high-90's fastball, after all. It seems to be paying off as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts with Atlanta last season after going 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts with the Orioles. And so far this season, Gausman has picked up where he left off at the end of last year, posting a 2.84 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his first two starts of 2019. The D-Backs' RHP Zack Godley is off to a rough start, going 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA over his first three starts after logging 15 victories last season. The Braves are 7-3 in Gausman's last 10 starts and 6-1 in his last seven here at SunTrust Park. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Pirates v. Tigers +103||Top||3-2||Loss||-100||12 h 9 m||Show|
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Perhaps as big a surprise in the AL as the 13-4 Tampa Bay Rays or the 13-7 Seattle Mariners are the 8-8 Detroit Tigers. Nobody gave the Tigers any chance of finishing with anything close to a .500 record, but here we are three weeks into the season and Detroit's rag-tag collection of players is competing with the best that the AL Central has to offer. Few of the players on the Tigers are household names. And that certainly is the case with 26-YO RHP Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull is still looking for his first MLB victory, but there are a few things to like about his performance so far this season, including his 19 strikeouts and 3.80 K:BB ratio in three starts covering 15 innings. Pittsburgh took Game 1 of this series on Tuesday, in extra innings, 5-3, but the Pirates are just 1-9 in their last 10 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Indians v. Mariners +102||Top||4-2||Loss||-100||18 h 30 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Cleveland Indians. You can say what you want about journeyman starter Mike Leake. But the 31-year-old has had an MLB career that many starters would love to emulate. First, Leake was one of a very small percentage of players who made his MLB debut without ever having appeared in a Minor League game. Second, prior to this season, the veteran RH has posted double-digit wins in six of his nine MLB seasons. And in the other three campaigns, Leake had eight, eight, and nine victories, respectively. It certainly won't hurt Leake's chances for another 10+ win season that he pitches for a team with one of the best records (and offenses) in baseball. And he's off to a very good start, having gone 2-0 in his first three starts (with the Mariners winning his other start, to boot). Leake's also performed well vs. the Indians in his career, with a 4-2 record and a 3.98 ERA in nine career starts, covering 54 1/3 innings. And his teams (the Mariners and Reds) have gone 3-1 in his last four starts vs. Cleveland, while the Mariners have gone 23-11 in his last 34 starts, overall. It's true that Seattle's #1 offense (6.84 runs per game) has cooled off a bit over its last three games, with just seven runs scored. But it's understandable when one considers that each of the three pitchers the Mariners faced in those games -- Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer -- were in the All-Star Game in 2018. Tonight, the Mariners will face 23-year-old Shane Bieber, who is a very good pitcher, but not an All-Star. Take Seattle to even up this series at 1 game apiece. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs did something very much out of character in Game 1: they pulled a big upset on the road, as a 5.5-point underdog. Indeed, the Spurs road win percentage this season is .404. And over the last two seasons, going into this series, they were 0-27 straight up, and 7-19-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than four points! Unfortunately for the Spurs, they're likely to revert to form tonight. And that's because, since April 28, 1991, NBA road teams, with a road win percentage less than .405, have covered just 33% in the Playoffs following an upset road win. Take Denver to slaughter San Antone. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Magic v. Raptors -9.5||Top||82-111||Win||100||16 h 34 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Orlando. The Raptors lost at home in Game 1, 104-101, to the Magic. And they were favored by 9.5 points in that game. The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that favorites of more than 9 points, off a game where they lost outright, and also failed to cover the spread by more than 9 points, are 30-0 straight-up, and 22-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs. Take Toronto to blow out Orlando. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Lightning -135 v. Blue Jackets||Top||3-7||Loss||-135||15 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets. In one of the most shocking first round results ever, the heavily-favored Lightning find themselves on the brink of elimination -- down 3-0 to the Blue Jackets heading into Game 4 in Columbus tonight. You can basically count on one hand the number of teams that have come back from a 3-0 deficit in a first-round NHL playoff series. And now the Lightning find themselves in that position. But there's some reason for optimism. The most obvious is the fact that the Bolts will get the services back of the NHL's most productive player. Nikita Kucherov (41 G; 87 A; 128 Points) served a one-game suspension for Game 3, and will be on the ice tonight for the visitors. Certainly, if Tampa had Kucherov in the last game, it could have made a difference in the final result. And, although they've had a handful of three-game losing streaks in the last couple of seasons, the fact remains that the Lightning have not lost four in a row since January 2017 (and they're 9-2 their last 11 following a 3-game losing streak). Even better: the Lightning are 11-0 this season after a road loss (and 36-15 the last 3 seasons). Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors||Top||135-131||Win||100||18 h 46 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State. The Warriors routed L.A. in Game 1, 121-104. But off that blowout win, we'll fade the defending Champs on this Monday. Indeed, double-digit home favorites off SU/ATS home playoff wins by 10+ points have covered just 36% since 1991. That doesn't bode well for Golden State tonight. And neither does the fact that the Clippers are 45-37-1 ATS this season, compared to just 36-46-1 ATS for Golden State. The Clippers are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 road games when playing with revenge. And #1 seeds (like the Warriors) are an awful 48-73-6 ATS as a favorite after winning Game 1 of a playoff series. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Rockies v. Padres -155||Top||5-2||Loss||-155||10 h 23 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Colorado is one of the league's biggest disappointments, as it's 4-12 this season (including 1-9 at night, and 1-7 as an underdog). On the opposite side of the MLB expectations spectrum is San Diego. With the addition of Manny Machado, everyone assumed that the Padres would be better this season. But their 11-6 record through the first three weeks has to be a pleasant surprise, even to the team itself. And the future is pretty bright as this club features a slew of young, talented pitchers including tonight's starter, Joey Lucchesi. The 25-year-old lefty burst onto the Majors last season with eight wins, a 4.08 ERA, and a 10.0 K/9IP rate in his 26 starts with the Padres. Now, with an improved offense behind him, people are expecting more from Lucchesi as he embarks on his sophomore campaign. He took advantage of his home ballpark in 2018, going 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 16 starts. And, so far he is yet to be scored upon here in two 2019 starts (zero ER on seven hits in 10 1/3 IP). The Padres are also 4-1 in Lucchesi's last five home starts and 7-1 in their last eight series openers. Finally, he's dominated the Rockies in four starts, with a 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .208 opponents' batting average. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||Top||123-145||Win||100||15 h 5 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Brooklyn. The Sixers were stunned, 111-102, in Game 1 of this series, here at home. But I love Philly to bounce back today, as home favorites of -7+ points, off a straight-up loss in the Playoffs (and ATS loss) by 7+ points each, have cashed 62.3% in conference games since 1991! Moreover, the Sixers are 43-29 ATS their last 72 at home, including 18-8 ATS off an ATS defeat by more than four points. Take Philadelphia to blow out Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Capitals v. Hurricanes -124||Top||0-5||Win||100||14 h 4 m||Show|
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Washington Capitals. The Hurricanes' task is straightforward: win Games 3 + 4 to level this series at two games apiece. It's true that the Caps have won each of the last five meetings here in Raleigh. But all five defeats were narrow, and were decided by a single goal, with three of the five ending in overtime or a shoot-out. Additionally, Carolina out-shot Washington in four of those five games. So there are plenty of reasons to like the home team tonight in what clearly is a must-win for the 'Canes. For technical support, consider that the Caps are a poor 6-13 in their last 19 playoff games, priced as an underdog of +150 or less, while Carolina cashed 67% at home this season off back to back losses. Take Carolina. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Mets -149 v. Braves||Top||3-7||Loss||-149||17 h 15 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the NY Mets over Atlanta. Yesterday, we played on Sean Newcomb and the Braves, and easily got the $$$ in an 11-7 Atlanta win. But we will switch gears, and back the road team in this rubber match of the 3-game series. New York will hand the ball to its ace, Jake deGrom, who has yet to allow a run in his road starts this season (13 Innings; 0 Runs; 8 Hits, 2 Walks, 24 Strikeouts). And deGrom has also been tough on Atlanta hitters in his career. Over 17 starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Last season, deGrom's W/L record suffered because his team scored three or less runs in 21 of his 32 starts. But he's received very good run support this season (which obviously is outside a pitcher's control), as New York's scored 16 runs in his three starts. The Mets are also a strong 3-0 this season, and 21-9 their last 30 as a road favorite. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Lightning -132 v. Blue Jackets||Top||1-3||Loss||-132||17 h 51 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Lightning went down two-games-to-none at home in this first round series with a 5-1 loss on Friday. And, to make matters worse, Tampa's top scorer, Nikita Kucherov, will miss today's game due to a suspension for a boarding infraction. But there are a few reasons for the fans in the Bay area not to panic. The most obvious is that, despite their performances in the first two games, the Bolts are still the more talented team. Tampa's success this season also wasn't primarily at home; it was also the best road team in the NHL this season, winning 30 of 41 games away from Amelie Arena. Historically, the Lightning have performed exceptionally well here in Columbus, taking each of the last three games (including the only meeting here in the regular season), and six of the last seven. If all of that wasn't enough, it's also worth noting that the Lightning are 8-0 in their last eight games immediately following a home loss by three or more goals, and 11-0 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game. Meanwhile, Columbus is a horrid 2-8 at home this season after scoring 3+ goals in back to back games. Finally, NHL teams have gone 27-14 following a Playoffs loss by more than three goals. With their backs against the wall, we'll back the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Brewers v. Dodgers -145||Top||1-7||Win||100||14 h 50 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee. The Dodgers will try to snap their six-game losing streak on Sunday after getting swept in St. Louis, and dropping the first two games of this series to the Brewers. Ross Stripling with get the ball for Dave Roberts' crew, and he's been super at home the past three years. In two starts vs. the Diamondbacks and Giants this season, Stripling gave up just 3 runs in 11 2-3 innings (2.32 ERA). He was also great at home last year, as he had a 2.50 ERA in 54 innings pitched, and in 2017, when he had a 2.23 ERA over 40.1 innings. Finally, Los Angeles is an awesome 64-33 its last 97 day games. Take the Dodgers behind Stripling to salvage a win in Game 3 of this series. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Thunder v. Blazers -3||Top||99-104||Win||100||35 h 29 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder swept the season series, 4-0, from Portland this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Portland because of that fact. However, road teams (like Oklahoma City) have gone 0-8 SU/ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of a Playoff series if they weren't getting 10+ points, and they swept the regular season series! That doesn't bode well for the Thunder. Even worse: Oklahoma City is a horrid 1-13 straight-up and 2-12 ATS on the road in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 0-8 SU/ATS in the first two rounds. Finally, Portland falls into a super 120-62 ATS revenge system of mine. Take the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Tigers +188 v. Twins||Top||4-6||Loss||-100||12 h 51 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Minnesota. The Twins have been installed as a big favorite behind Jose Berrios this afternoon. But in six career starts vs. Detroit, his ERA is north of 7 runs per game. That doesn't inspire confidence. The Tigers have gone 8-2 (+10 games on the money line) in Zimmermann's last 10 daytime starts on the road, including two underdog wins already this season vs. the Blue Jays and Yankees. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Pirates +174 v. Nationals||Top||4-3||Win||174||11 h 17 m||Show|
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington. The Buccos will hand the ball to their talented righty, Jameson Taillon. This season, Taillon has pitched well enough (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but has nothing to show for it, as the Pirates lost each of his three starts. Admittedly, he'll have a pitching battle on his hands this afternoon since Max Scherzer is his mound opponent. But it's hard to pass up Taillon at this price, especially since he will be working on an extra day of rest. The Bucs are 11-2 on the road behind Taillon when he's had an extra day or two of rest, and they're 13-7 as a road underdog (+10 games on the money line) with him on the hill. Take Pittsburgh.
|04-14-19||Phillies -180 v. Marlins||Top||3-1||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami. The Marlins snapped their five game losing streak yesterday with a 10-3 win over the Phillies. But the fact remains Miami is an awful ballclub. Today, I look for them to revert to their losing ways, as Jose Urena will take the mound for the home club. Urena's ERA is a ghastly 8.56 (9.34 at home), with a 2.12 WHIP. In his three starts (all losses), he's yet to make it into the 6th inning, and Miami's lost by a combined score of 26-8. His mound opponent, Vincent Velasquez, has a career ERA of 3.18 vs. Miami in his 10 starts. Take Philadelphia.
|04-14-19||Islanders v. Penguins -190||Top||4-1||Loss||-190||10 h 50 m||Show|
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over New York. The Islanders took Games 1 + 2 in this series, and come into the Igloo on a four-game win streak. Unfortunately for New York, it's an awful 15-35 (minus 22 games on the money line) after winning its four previous games. Meanwhile, the Penguins are 34-10 at home with Mike Sullivan as coach after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game, and 12-1 off back to back road losses. They've also won nine of 10 Playoff series with Sullivan on the bench, and won't panic just because their collective backs are against the proverbial wall. Take the Penguins to bounce back in Game 3. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-13-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -5||Top||101-96||Loss||-115||43 h 6 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs have certainly been a great Playoff team over the years. But they've really struggled as underdogs of +5 (or more) points when matched up against a top 2-seeded opponent. Since 2001, they've gone just 3-21 straight-up and 7-17 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if the Spurs were not off a SU/ATS win. That doesn't bode well for San Antonio on Saturday night. And neither does the fact that San Antonio is an awful 0-4 straight-up the past two seasons at Denver, with its average margin of defeat being 10.5 points. The Nuggets have not held home court advantage in a Playoff series very often. Indeed, over the last 28 years, they've only been in that position in four series. But in those four series, they won that first (home) game all four times, and by an average of 14.5 points per game. When these two teams last met (just 10 days ago), the Spurs were destroyed by Denver, 113-85. And teams playing with revenge from a loss in the regular season by 15+ points have covered just 42 of 106 Playoff games. The biggest problem for San Antonio in this series will be the Nuggets' All-Star center, Nikola Jokic. In the last three games played between these two teams, Jokic has gone 10-14, 10-14 and 9-10 from the field, and also pulled down 10 rebounds per game. Jokic will prove to be too much for the Spurs to handle. Take Denver minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-13-19||Astros v. Mariners +174||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||19 h 38 m||Show|
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Houston. Seattle's off to a great offensive start this season, as it's #1 in the Major Leagues in Home Runs, Slugging Percentage, Batting Average, and Runs Scored. Yesterday, the Mariners put up six runs vs. Houston, but it wasn't enough, as they surrendered 10 runs, themselves. Still, that was the EIGHTH STRAIGHT game that the Mariners scored 6+ runs! And they're 13-3 this season, including 8-2 as an underdog. Tonight, they're a HUGE home underdog vs. Justin Verlander and the Astros. But with an offense this proficient, the value rests squarely on the big home dog, notwithstanding the disparity on the mound. Admittedly, Felix Hernandez is on the downside of his great career. But he was brilliant in his lone home start this season (5.3 IP, 1 ER, 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). In his last start -- on the road vs. Kansas City -- he retired just three Royals before exiting due to food poisoning, so I won't attach much significance to the fact he didn't pitch well since he was battling illness. The Mariners bombed Verlander in the only meeting against him last season (6 runs in 2 innings), so let's take the Mariners in this home underdog role. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-13-19||Mets v. Braves -125||Top||7-11||Win||100||17 h 49 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. Two southpaws will face off tonight in Atlanta. But being lefthanded starters in the Majors is about the only thing that the Braves' Sean Newcomb and the Mets' Jason Vargas have in common. Vargas is a 36-year-old veteran junk-ball pitcher whose fastball tops out at around 87 MPH, while Newcomb is a 25-year-old rising star who has big swing-and-miss stuff with his mid-90's heater. Newcomb is off to a great start with a 1.64 ERA in his first two outings -- wins against the Cubs and Marlins. More importantly for tonight, in his last two starts vs. the Mets, Newcomb hasn't allowed a run, throwing 12 innings of near-perfect ball with just three hits allowed and 16 strikeouts. Vargas' season is off to a rough start, with a 9.00 ERA in two outings (one start) allowing six runs on 12 hits in six innings. The Braves are 8-2 in Newcomb's last 10 starts vs. teams from the NL East. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Brewers v. Dodgers -138||Top||8-5||Loss||-138||19 h 34 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee. The Dodgers' seven-game road trip got off to a great start, as they swept three games from the Colorado Rockies last weekend. But Los Angeles hit the proverbial brick wall in St. Louis, and it was swept out of the Gateway City with four straight losses. The Dodgers are back home in Chavez Ravine tonight, and will face the Brewers, who are also on a losing streak. The pitching match-up greatly favors the home team, as Julio Urias' ERA is 3.11 this season, while Corbin Burnes' ERA is a ghastly 9.90. There's no doubt Burnes has a lot of talent -- his 18 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched certainly illustrate that. However, the main problem for Burnes this season has been the longball, as he's given up six home runs in 10 innings. That doesn't bode well against a team like Los Angeles, which ranks 3rd in Major League Baseball with 29 home runs on the season. L.A. is a solid 9-3 behind Urias when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Penguins -123 v. Islanders||Top||1-3||Loss||-123||16 h 59 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over New York. The Islanders took a 1-0 series lead with an exciting 4-3 overtime win on Wednesday. I fully expect the Penguins to bounce back tonight, as they're 39-15 when playing with revenge from a loss by a single goal. And they're also 69-38 following a game where they surrendered more than three goals. Meanwhile, the Islanders are a horrid 51-86 after winning their three previous games. The Penguins out-shot the Islanders in each of the three periods (17-12; 13-10; 11-9), as well as the overtime period (3-2). And their shots in the 2nd and 3rd periods were also of a significantly higher quality than the Islanders' shots. I look for Pittsburgh to level this series at 1 game apiece. Take the Penguins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Mets v. Braves -106||Top||6-2||Loss||-106||16 h 43 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over New York. The Braves have already put together win streaks of 4 and 3 games this season, and bring a 7-4 record into this series. One starter who has not been part of a victory, though, is tonight's rookie hurler, Kyle Wright. Atlanta lost each of his two starts (to Miami and Philly), but it was primarily due to a lack of offense (3 runs combined) in those two games rather than a poor pitching performance by Wright. Tonight, Wright will look to get his first Major League win and he'll match-up against the Mets Zack Wheeler. The Mets have also lost Wheeler's two starts, but in those games, Wheeler's pitching was the primary culprit, as his ERA is 10.24 this season. New York is an atrocious 54-94 (minus 35 games on the money line) against winning ball clubs. Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Phillies -167 v. Marlins||Top||9-1||Win||100||16 h 32 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. While there may be some debate as to which team is the worst in the AL (Orioles, Royals, White Sox, etc.) there is no debate in the NL. If the Miami Marlins don't finish with the worst record in the Senior Circuit, then just about everyone associated with the game will be surprised. The Marlins were not a good team before they traded away what little talent they had left, and now they are just plain bad. They have a 3-10 record and on the six-game road trip they just returned from they went 1-5 and were out-scored by 29-4 in the losses. One bright spot has been young RHP Sandy Alcantara, who is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his first two starts. But his six strikeouts against five walks in his 12 innings pitched indicate that he has been more lucky than good. In his last two starts here at Marlins Park, Philadelphia RH Jake Arrieta is 2-0 with four runs allowed in 14 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and four walks. Arrieta's teams are also 35-12 in their last 47 games (+15 games on the money line) as a road favorite of at least -115 when he starts. Take Philly.
|04-12-19||Pirates +162 v. Nationals||Top||6-3||Win||162||15 h 27 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington. The Nationals come into this game off back to back wins, in which they scored 10 and 15 runs, while the Pirates have been shut out in two of their last three games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Nationals. But Washington is an awful 17-27 (minus 26 games on the money line) off back to back wins. And, dating back to last season, Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams has tossed 6 scoreless innings in three of his last five starts (the Pirates went 4-1 in those five games). Williams also tossed five scoreless innings in this last start vs. the Nationals, and has a 2.53 career ERA vs. them. Take Pittsburgh.
|04-11-19||Indians -121 v. Tigers||Top||4-0||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Detroit. We played on the Tigers and Matt Boyd yesterday, and were rewarded with a 4-1 victory (part of a 4-0 Baseball sweep). But the Tigers' offense has -- more often than not -- failed to significantly produce, as it's scored three runs or less in eight of its 12 games this season. Not surprisingly, the Tigers' run production (33 runs in 12 games) ranks dead last in the Major Leagues. Today, Detroit will hand the ball to Spencer Turnbull, who was moved into the starting rotation when Michael Fulmer sustained an injury in spring training. Turnbull came up to the Big Leagues from the Minors late last season, and was not impressive (6.45 ERA; 1.36 WHIP). This season, in two starts, those numbers haven't improved much (4.09 ERA; 1.27 WHIP), especially when one considers that the two teams (Royals; Blue Jays) Turnbull has faced this season rank among the bottom 10 offenses in the Majors thus far. The Indians have won seven of Shane Bieber's last nine starts, and they are 80-46 their last 126 day games. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Jazz v. Clippers -6||Top||137-143||Push||0||12 h 22 m||Show|
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Utah. The Jazz won their final home game of the season yesterday when the defeated Denver. Meanwhile, the Clippers had the last 2 nights off following their 27-point loss at Golden State, so they'll be very well rested for this game. Los Angeles needs to win, and also have either San Antonio or Oklahoma City lose, in order to avoid the 8th seed. Unfortunately, both the Spurs and Thunder are favored to win their games tonight (both early starts), so the Clippers could very well have their fate sealed by the time this late night game begins. Regardless, I expect a strong effort, as they'll enter tonight's play on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will no doubt want to get back into the win column prior to the start of the Playoffs. Los Angeles is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven (and 13-3 ATS its last 16) games off a road defeat. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Pirates +155 v. Cubs||Top||5-2||Win||155||15 h 11 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago. The Pirates were blasted by Chicago in Game 1 of this series, 10-0, and look to bounce back today. Pittsburgh's a super 9-1 on the road off a shut out loss, and it's also 10-3 after giving up 10+ runs. Those facts bode well for the Buccos tonight. The pitching match-up also is favorable. Chicago's Yu Darvish has underperformed, as his teams are 21-24 (minus 16 games on the money line). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles comes into today's game off 5 shut out innings vs. Cincy. Take Pittsburgh. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Heat v. Nets -3.5||Top||94-113||Win||100||14 h 41 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami. The Heat had an emotional game last night, at home, when they defeated Philly, 122-99, in Dwyane Wade's final home game. Tonight, they have to take on the Playoff-bound Nets, who come into this season finale off back to back upset wins over Milwaukee and Indiana. Since 1990, home teams have cashed 71% in their final game of the season, if they were off back to back upset wins. Take Brooklyn minus the points.
|04-10-19||Warriors v. Grizzlies +6||Top||117-132||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State. The Warriors come into this final game of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up. So, this game will hold little meaning to Steve Kerr's crew. Not surprisingly, since 1990, #1-seeded Playoff teams have covered just 35.7% of their final games of the regular season, if they were on the road. Take Memphis + the points.
|04-10-19||Mavs v. Spurs -13||Top||94-105||Loss||-109||10 h 53 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas. This game is critical for the Spurs. If they win, they'll avoid the Warriors in the 1st round of the Playoffs. San Antonio also will play this game with a big advantage in terms of their days of rest. The Spurs have had the last two days off, while Dallas had to play last night. San Antonio is 96-58 ATS its last 154 vs. unrested foes. Lay the points with San Antonio.
|04-10-19||Magic v. Hornets -2||Top||122-114||Loss||-109||10 h 52 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over Orlando. The Hornets will likely miss the Playoffs, as they need to defeat Orlando and also need the NY Knicks to upset Detroit in order to qualify for the post-season. But anything's possible, so Charlotte will certainly put forth its best effort tonight. The Hornets didn't put forth their best effort when these two teams last met on Valentine's Day. The Magic won that game, 127-89. But Charlotte had won the previous 13 games in this series (11-2 ATS) and I look for them to avenge that 38-point loss tonight. Indeed, underdogs off a SU/ATS win (like Orlando), which defeated their opponent by 30+ points in the previous meeting, are a soft 28-53-1 ATS since 1990. Take Charlotte.
|04-10-19||Pacers v. Hawks -175||Top||135-134||Loss||-175||5 h 58 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Indiana. The Pacers have dropped nine of their last 12 games, and are locked into the #5 slot in the Eastern Conference. With nothing to play for, we'll fade them on the road tonight at Atlanta, as the Hawks are still playing hard (even though they also have nothing to play for). Atlanta's covered 17 of its last 23 games, including 9-3 ATS off a straight-up loss. In contrast, the Pacers are 8-13 ATS their last 21. Finally, Indiana falls into a negative 86-127-4 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain road teams late in the season, as well as a negative 163-215-8 ATS system which fades certain teams that won the season's first three meetings. Take the Hawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Twins v. Mets -186||Top||6-9||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Minnesota Twins. Heading into the season, one area where most people thought the Mets improved themselves the most was in their bullpen. But that thought has been proven wrong on several occasions so far this season -- including last night when the Twins plated seven runs in the last two innings and embarrassed the Mets at Citi Field, 14-8. Let's face it -- the Twins are not a team known for their offensive prowess -- but that didn't seem to matter on Tuesday against New York ace RH Jacob deGrom. Tonight, the home team will look to its other ace, RHP Noah Syndergaard, to get back on track. Despite some impressive numbers -- a 0.83 WHIP, and a 6.50 K:BB ratio -- the man they call Thor has little to show for it this year (zero wins in two starts). Syndergaard has never faced the Twins, but in his last start vs. AL competition, he blanked the Red Sox last fall with seven shutout innings in an 8-0 Mets victory. The Twins are also just 5-11 in their last 16 inter-league contests. Take New York.
|04-10-19||Padres -105 v. Giants||Top||3-1||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. We played on San Diego as a big underdog in Monday's win over Madison Bumgarner. And we'll come right back with the Padres in this rubber match, on Wednesday afternoon. Interestingly, this game features the same pitching match-up as the game played on March 30 (won by San Francisco, 3-2). The Padres will hand the ball to Nick Margevicius, who has a super 1.80 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his two starts this season. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Dereck Rodriguez, hasn't had the same success, as his ERA is 5.23 on the season. And, dating back to last season, the Giants have lost eight of Rodriguez's last nine starts. San Francisco's a poor 51-67 (minus 15 games on the money line) in afternoon games. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Indians v. Tigers +128||Top||1-4||Win||128||8 h 17 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Cleveland. The Indians struggled last season vs. winning teams, and beat up on losing ball clubs. This season, the Tribe seems to be falling into the same pattern. Cleveland 5-1 this season vs. teams that currently have a losing record, but is just 2-2 vs. teams that are above .500. Detroit's off to a solid 7-4 start this season, and will hand the ball to southpaw Matt Boyd. Boyd struck out 13 Yankees in 6 1-3 innings in his last start (and also fanned 10 Blue Jays over five innings in his first start of this season). His ERA is a solid 3.18, and this will be his first game at home this season. Detroit's won each of Boyd's last five starts at home, and he surrendered just four earned runs in 28 1-3 innings (1.27 ERA) in those five games. And when installed as a home underdog with Boyd on the mound, Detroit's gone 8-1 in the last nine. Take the Tigers.
|04-09-19||Suns v. Mavs -8||Top||109-120||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Phoenix. We played against the Suns on Sunday, as we had our NBA Game of the Month on Houston. And the Rockets blew out Phoenix by 36 points. We will go against Phoenix again, tonight, as Dallas will be playing its final home game of the season (and possibly the final home game of Dirk Nowitzki's storied career). The Mavericks are still playing hard (they won a road game at Memphis, on Sunday), and fall into an 86-42 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine (which Houston, coincidentally, also fell into when they played Phoenix on Sunday). Lay the points with Dallas.
|04-09-19||Yankees +171 v. Astros||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||17 h 55 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Houston. By season's end, it would not be a surprise if these two teams owned the best American League records. Tonight, the Astros have been installed as a large favorite. We'll back New York, as it has gone 7-4 (+8 games on the money line) as an underdog of +150 or higher. Houston, meanwhile, has burned money in its nighttime home games, with a 33-31 record (minus 30 games on the money line). Likewise, Houston's not excelled at home vs. winning ballclubs (78-71, minus 25 games on the money line). Finally, the Astros have lost each of Gerrit Cole's last three starts. And he has a mediocre 4.50 ERA vs. the Yankees in his career. Take the Yankees as a big underdog behind Jonathan Loaisiga tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-09-19||Knicks v. Bulls -1.5||Top||96-86||Loss||-109||5 h 56 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over New York. The Knicks upset the Wizards, 113-110, in their previous game. But New York is still just 16-64 on the season, and has only won back-to-back games three times. I love playing against really bad teams off wins. And I won't make an exception here, as this also is New York's final road game of the season. And they're playing a revenge-minded Bulls team they defeated just eight days ago. New York is a poor 2-10 ATS this season in "win situation" games, where the line is 3 points or less. And Chicago's 9-4 ATS its last 13 "Last Home Games." Take the Bulls minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-09-19||Dodgers -131 v. Cardinals||Top||0-4||Loss||-131||17 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals. If there's a concern surrounding the Dodgers this year, it's their starting pitching. With Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill on the shelf, Alex Wood jettisoned via trade, and their #1 guy right now being a 24-year-old with only 25 MLB starts under his belt, there are plenty of questions to be answered. But so far this team has flourished despite these issues with an 8-3 record and a first place standing in the NL West. Tonight they will hand the ball to one of the guys who will have to carry the pitching load -- at least for a while -- as 29-year-old RH journeyman Ross Stripling gets his third start of the season. Despite a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his first two, Stripling has no victories to show for his work. A similar effort tonight to his first two outings should get him over the hump against rookie Dakota Hudson, who has been less-than-impressive in two appearances (one start) this season. Hudson's ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is an unsightly 2.00. The big problem for Hudson thus far has been his propensity to give up the long ball, as he was tagged for three home runs in 4 1-3 innings by the Brewers. The Dodgers lost a close one here yesterday, 4-3, but they are still 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Busch Stadium. L.A. is also 11-2 in Stripling's last 13 trips to the hill following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Finally, the Cards are a poor 9-16 (minus 6 games on the money line) as a home underdog. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-09-19||Celtics v. Wizards -4.5||Top||116-110||Loss||-108||4 h 55 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston. This is the final game of the season for both teams. And the Celtics look to be mailing this game in. Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford all will be in street clothes. Washington plays with revenge from an 11-point defeat to the Celtics, in Boston, last month. And Washington is 17-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge. Additionally, Boston falls into a negative 32-68 ATS "Late season" system of mine which fades certain teams on the road at the end of the year. Take Washington.
|04-08-19||Padres +116 v. Giants||Top||6-5||Win||116||20 h 6 m||Show|
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. It seems like only yesterday that Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner was one of the most feared starters in the game. In fact in 2016, Bumgarner was 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and an All Star for the fourth straight season. And he finished each of those four with an ERA under three runs. But two things happened over the next two seasons: 1) Bumgarner suffered multiple injuries, and 2) the Giants became a really bad baseball team. Over the past two seasons, despite an ERA of around 3.30, Mad-Bum had just 38 total starts with a record of 10-16. He and his team are at it again this year with a 0-2 record and 1.38 ERA in his first two starts covering 13 innings. He will face the Padres and young LHP Eric Lauer tonight. After a very strong Spring, Lauer has kept it going in his first two regular season starts with a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings. The Giants' anemic offense was on display again on Sunday, losing to the Rays 3-0 and they are 3-13 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia -115||Top||77-85||Win||100||20 h 21 m||Show|
At 9:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers on the money line (currently -118), to win the game straight-up vs. Texas Tech. At the start of the season, in November, I picked the Cavaliers to win the NCAA Title, at 22-1 odds. I also selected Virginia to win this tournament when the field was announced three weeks ago. So, with the Cavaliers on the doorstep of winning their first National Championship, I am certainly not going to back away now. It's absolutely true that Virginia has been fortunate to win their last two games. They needed overtime to put Purdue away in the Elite Eight, and then benefited from an Auburn shooting foul on Kyle Guy on a failed 3-point attempt. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Red Raiders, who have covered their last five games, and against a Cavaliers squad which failed to cover vs. Auburn. But Final Four teams off a point spread loss have gone 11-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points, if their opponent was off an ATS win. Even better: teams (like Texas Tech) off an upset win, have gone just 28-47 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points. And teams off 3 straight upset wins have cashed just 31.5% in the NCAA Tournament since 1994 vs. foes not off an ATS win. Finally, the Cavaliers have been spectacular the past two seasons off an ATS defeat (19-1 SU; 15-4 ATS). Take Virginia on the money line. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Magic v. Celtics -5||Top||116-108||Loss||-105||13 h 50 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Orlando. Boston played its best game in a month in its last time out, with a 20-point win at Indiana. The Celtics have now won 3 in a row, and need to win at least one more game to wrap up home court advantage in the first round. Tonight, they'll take on an Orlando Magic team which narrowly defeated the Celtics by two points in the last meeting. Boston is 9-0 ATS when playing with revenge, if the Celtics covered their previous game by 7+ points. And Boston's also 19-5-1 ATS at home off 3+ wins, including 10-0 ATS its last 10 if it covered its two previous games. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Suns v. Rockets -18||Top||113-149||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Phoenix. The Rockets are still in the hunt for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they're currently just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets. And Houston's been taking no prisoners lately, as they're on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak. They've won those five games by 27, 11, 25, 32 and 24 points. Tonight, they'll take on a short-handed Phoenix club which will be without its best player, Devin Booker. And, regardless of who has been on the court, the Suns haven't been able to defeat Houston in any of the last 10 meetings. For the season, the Suns are giving up 116.4 ppg. And Houston's dominated opponents that have a defensive ppg average of 116+, as it's cashed 69.5%. Finally, this is Houston's last home game of the season, and the Rockets fall into a 52-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams in their final game in front of their home faithful. Meanwhile, the Suns fall into a negative 22-59 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams late in the season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Rangers +133 v. Angels||Top||2-7||Loss||-100||9 h 17 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Los Angeles Angels. Hardly anyone noticed when the Rangers signed RHP Shelby Miller to a free agent contract back in January. Perhaps for good reason. Over the past three seasons, the veteran starter's ERA has been 6.15, 4.09, and 10.69 respectively with a combined record of 5-16. And the year before those three, he led the Majors with 17 losses when he was in Atlanta. But perhaps a move back to Miller's native Texas will help resurrect his career. Sure, his first start was nothing to write home about, but the Rangers did win the game nonetheless. And the match-up today against RH starter Chris Stratton definitely favors the more experienced Miller. Like Miller's signing, the trade with the Giants that brought Stratton to Anaheim barely made any ripples and Stratton could have a very tough time going from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park to Angel Stadium, even if he gets more run support here. In his last five starts -- including his lone start in 2019 -- Stratton has allowed 21 ER in just 18 2/3 innings (a 10.12 ERA). Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Thunder -6.5 v. Wolves||Top||132-126||Loss||-107||9 h 47 m||Show|
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Minnesota. The Thunder are currently in the 7th slot in the Western Conference, but need to win their two final games, or they could easily fall to the 8th seed (and have to play Golden State). This is a revenge game for OKC, which was upset by Minnesota when the two teams met last month. That bodes well for OKC, as the Thunder are 54-35 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Even better: the T-Wolves come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Dallas and Miami. But those two victories have triggered a negative 104-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upsets. Take the Thunder.
|04-07-19||Spurs -8.5 v. Cavs||Top||112-90||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland. The Spurs are battling OKC and the LA Clippers for the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds out West, as none of those teams wants to finish 8th and draw the Warriors in the 1st Round. We played on San Antonio in its last game, and were rewarded with a 129-112 blowout of the Wizards. We'll come right back with San Antone this afternoon, as the Spurs are 73-42 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes not off an ATS defeat. With Cleveland in off a point spread win at Golden State on Friday, we'll lay the points with the Spurs.
|04-07-19||Cubs v. Brewers -111||Top||2-4||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. Many people predicted that the NL Central would be the most competitive division in the Majors this year. So far, those predictions are looking very shaky. While the Brewers have exceeded almost all expectations so far, going 7-2 in their first nine games, the Cubs are way at the other end of the spectrum, with just two victories in their first eight contests. The two rivals will square of this afternoon in Milwaukee with RHPs Kyle Hendricks (CHI) and Zach Davies (MIL) taking the mound for their respective teams. Davies pitched pretty well in his first start, a 4-3 Brewer victory over the Reds, but he left the game after five innings with a no-decision. Hendricks posted 14 wins last season, but he saw his ERA rise almost a half-run, and his first start of 2019 was not encouraging -- seven runs (two earned) on 10 hits with three walks in just 4 1/3 innings. The Brewers are 4-1 in Davies last five starts vs. teams with a losing record and 11-4 in his last 15 home starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee.
|04-07-19||Marlins v. Braves -158||Top||3-4||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Miami. The Braves saw their 4-game win streak go by the wayside yesterday. But they should get back into the win column this afternoon behind Sean Newcomb. The Braves' southpaw threw four shutout innings in his 2019 debut vs. the Cubbies, and he's 4-1 in his career vs. the Marlins with a 2.06 ERA. Miami's an awful 48-121 (minus 39 games on the money line) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200, while Atlanta's 50-30 (+22 games on the money line) vs. division rivals. Take the Braves.
|04-06-19||Jets -120 v. Coyotes||Top||4-2||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Arizona Coyotes. This is a big game for the Jets. A victory by Winnipeg tonight in the desert coupled with a Nashville loss would bring the Jets their first Division Title since moving north from Atlanta. It's been a frustrating end-of-season road trip so far for the Jets as they lost their last two in Minnesota and Colorado, the latter one being a 3-2 OT defeat on Thursday. But the good news for them is that they have dominated this series lately, taking five of the last six meetings going back to January of 2017. It's true that the Coyotes have had a strong second half of the season, but they've still been one of the most anemic teams at home all season with just a 2.70 GPG average here at the Gila River Arena. Moreover, the Jets are one of the best teams in the league when playing as a road favorite (4-1 in their last five as a road favorite overall, and 17-5 in their last 22 as a road favorite of -110 to -150). And they are 46-22 in their last 68 vs. teams with a losing record. Take Winnipeg. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-06-19||Auburn v. Virginia -5||Top||62-63||Loss||-115||31 h 2 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Auburn. The 5th-seeded Tigers are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 12 straight wins, including back to back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds. But this is the point where Cinderella generally gets her glass slipper smashed. Indeed, in the NCAA Tournament, teams seeded #5 (or worse), and installed as an underdog of +6 or less points, are 0-7 SU/ATS in the semi-final round since 1990. And, since 1995, underdogs off back-to-back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds are a poor 0-11 straight-up, and 2-9 ATS in the NCAA Semi-Finals. Finally, #1-seeded ACC Conference teams have gone 14-3 straight-up and 13-4 ATS since 2000 in the NCAA Tourney's Final Four. Virginia will blow out Auburn. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-06-19||Rangers +130 v. Angels||Top||1-5||Loss||-100||13 h 19 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Anaheim. Oft-injured Drew Smyly pitched in the Majors for the first time since 2016 when he threw three innings of 1-run ball on Monday. And that outing followed a largely-successful spring training for the Southpaw. Today, he'll match up against Anaheim's Tyler Skaggs, who had a mediocre effort at Oakland in his season debut. Dating back to last season, Skaggs has now gone six straight starts without a Quality Start. The Angels are hopeful that Skaggs has a breakthrough season, but he underwhelmed in his Spring Training performances (7.45 ERA). The Angels have been a poor home favorite of -150 or less (14-20, minus 11 games on the money line), so we'll take the underdog Rangers with Smyly on the hill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-06-19||Twins +137 v. Phillies||Top||6-2||Win||137||11 h 20 m||Show|
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over Philadelphia. Michael Pineda threw 4 innings of 1-hit ball in his season debut last Sunday -- a 9-3 win over the Cleveland Indians. Pineda missed all of last season, as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, so the Twins were no doubt happy with his performance. This afternoon, Pineda will try to follow-up that game with another strong effort. And I believe he will, as he's been strong in daytime starts (6-2 last eight), and in April games (15-9). Meanwhile, Pineda's mound counterpart, Jake Arrieta, has been poor of late in the daytime (11-15, minus 9 games on the money line). And Arrieta's teams have also burned money (14-20, minus 11 games on the money line) when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest. Take Minnesota.
|04-06-19||Nationals v. Mets +114||Top||5-6||Win||114||10 h 25 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. When the Nationals signed free agent pitcher Patrick Corbin to a six-year, $140 Million contract in the off-season, there were a lot of people questioning it. After all, the veteran LHP has been in the league for six seasons -- only two of which (2013 and 2018) would warrant that type of reward. That, coupled with the fact that Corbin has had a history of injuries, makes the Nats' contract questionable at best. Sure, Corbin's first start was decent, but it wasn't anything special so the jury is certainly still out. He will try to take the next step this afternoon against the Mets in New York. Fellow southpaw Steven Matz goes for the home team and his last start against DC here at Citi Field was one of the strangest results we've seen. Despite a very strong performance (one run on five hits in seven innings), the Mets lost 15-0. With an improved bullpen this season, a similar effort today should not be in vain. Corbin's teams (the D-Backs and Nats) are 13-18 (-7 games on the money line) in his last 31 road starts. Take the Mets.
|04-05-19||Grizzlies v. Mavs -4.5||Top||122-112||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Memphis. This is the first of two back-to-back games played by these teams (they'll meet in Memphis on Sunday). Dallas comes into tonight's game off an upset home loss to Minnesota. And they also play with revenge from two losses to the Grizzlies earlier this season. We'll lay the points with Dallas, as home favorites have cashed 64.7% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge against a division rival, if our home team is also off an upset home loss. Take the Mavericks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-05-19||Spurs -6 v. Wizards||Top||129-112||Win||100||17 h 33 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Washington. San Antone is locked into a tight battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 7th spot out West. If the Spurs are to catch the Thunder (they're currently one game behind), then a win tonight is critical. San Antonio does come into tonight's game off five straight point spread losses. But the Spurs are 38-20 ATS as road favorites of -10 or less points off 3+ ATS defeats. Take San Antonio.
|04-05-19||Hawks v. Magic -8.5||Top||113-149||Win||100||17 h 33 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks are one of four Eastern Conference teams battling for the last three Playoff spots. Currently, Orlando, Miami and Brooklyn all have 40 losses, while Detroit has 39. Thus, tonight's home game vs. Atlanta is huge for Orlando. The Magic have been dominant at home, as they currently have won eight straight in front of the home faithful (6-2 ATS), including a 7-point win over Golden State, and a double-digit win over these Hawks. Orlando's 20-12-1 ATS its last 33 at home, and should be fired-up tonight as it will be its final home game of the season. The Hawks have been awful on the road when playing an opponent in its final home game (4-22 straight-up; 6-17-3 ATS). Take Orlando.
|04-05-19||South Florida +1.5 v. DePaul||Top||77-65||Win||100||16 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over DePaul. The Bulls have covered four straight heading into tonight's game at McGrath-Phillips Arena. The first two games in this series went down to the wire. South Florida outlasted DePaul, 63-61, on Monday at Yuengling Center, in Tampa. Then, on Wednesday, the Blue Demons evened up the series with a 4-point overtime win, here in Chicago. South Florida, though, covered the closing line of +4.5 (it did open at +3.5, however). Given the closeness of this series, it's hard to turn down points with the Bulls. After all, besides its current 4-game ATS win streak, the Bulls have gone 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Blue Demons. Take South Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-04-19||Islanders -111 v. Panthers||Top||2-1||Win||100||17 h 19 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Florida Panthers. The same team that tried to help the Islanders on Monday night will now face them at home in the next-to-last game of the season for both teams. I say "tried" because, despite the fact that the Panthers beat the first-place Caps here three days ago, the Isles lost that same night at home to the Leafs, 2-1. So tonight is a must-win situation for the visitors if they are to have any hope of winning the Division (and they will keep their collective eyes on the out-of-town scoreboard as the Caps play the Habs at home at the same time). In what can only be described as "too little - too late", Florida comes in on a three-game win streak having beaten the Senators, Bruins, and aforementioned Caps, but the Panthers had already been eliminated from post-season contention. This series has not been kind to the hosts lately as the home team is 1-6 in the last seven meetings of the Isles and Panthers. Even better for the Isles: they are 16-7 in their last 23 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-04-19||Lipscomb v. Texas -1||Top||66-81||Win||100||17 h 12 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Lipscomb. The #5-seeded Bison have been underdogs (or PK) every step of the way in this NIT Tournament. And they've been installed as a dog, yet again, in this Championship game. By my numbers, though, they should be getting 1.5 more points, so the value rests on the side of the Longhorns. Even worse for Lipscomb: underdogs have been awful in the NIT Tournament off 3 straight wins as an underdog (or PK), as they've gone 1-6 ATS in that role. And teams seeded#5 (or worse) are 0-6-1 ATS in the NIT Final Four if they're matched up against a higher-seeded opponent (here, Texas is seeded 2nd). Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have gone 12-3 ATS in the NIT Tournament, at the quarter-final round forward, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when not favored by 4+ points. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-03-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -5||Top||85-113||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio. This is one of the few games left on the NBA schedule where both teams will be well-motivated to win. San Antonio is in a tight battle with Oklahoma City for the 7th seed, while Denver desperately wants to hang on to the #2 seed. The home court has been the decisive factor in this series, as the home team has now won nine straight times, including San Antonio's 104-103 victory in the Alamo City on March 4. The Spurs have also mightily struggled when playing revenge-minded Western Conference teams, and especially if their opponent owned a W/L percentage greater than .440. Over the last two years, San Antonio is 5-18 straight-up and 6-17 ATS, including 0-9 SU/ATS in the regular season when getting more than 4 points. Take Denver to blow out the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-03-19||South Florida v. DePaul -5.5||Top||96-100||Loss||-108||17 h 54 m||Show|
At 8 pm, on Wednesday, in Game 2 of the Best-of-3 Championship series of the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over South Florida. These two schools have a long history against one another, as they were member schools in Conference USA together, and also member schools of the Big East Conference together. Currently, South Florida is an American Athletic Conference member, so this series was the first time the schools had met since March 2013. Lately, South Florida has had the upper hand, with nine straight wins (8-0-1 ATS). But since 1996, the series has been pretty evenly played, with the Bulls holding a 13-11 record (12-11-1 ATS). The key factor for tonight's game is that the Bulls have been dreadful in the post-season when they've had to play on an opponent's home court. They've gone 0-8 straight-up and 1-6-1 ATS (with their only ATS win by a single point). And, yes, it's true that South Florida is 2-0-1 ATS its last three games, while DePaul is 0-2-1 ATS in its last three. But in post-season tournaments, home teams not off an ATS win in either of their two previous games, have covered 63.1% if they weren't favored by more than 7 points against a foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in either of its two previous games. Take the Blue Demons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Sharks -147 v. Canucks||Top||2-4||Loss||-147||18 h 3 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Vancouver Canucks. Although the Sharks can't catch the Calgary Flames for first place in the Pacific Division, they still are in a battle to hold onto the second-best record in the Western Conference. San Jose's 97 points coming into tonight is 1 point better than the Jets, who are leading the Central Division. And this is a position that the Sharks would like to maintain with three games left in the regular season. Tonight, they head to Vancouver to play the Canucks -- a team they have totally dominated in recent meetings. In fact, the Sharks are 6-0 in their last six games against Vancouver going back to December of 2017. They are also 21-8 in the last 29 meetings at Rogers Arena. The Canucks did beat the Stars, 3-2, in OT in their last game. But that may not bode well for tonight as they are 6-12 in their last 18 (-6 games on the money line) off of a home win. They are also 3-9 in their last 12 after an overtime victory. Take the Sharks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Texas +1.5 v. TCU||Top||58-44||Win||100||17 h 28 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over TCU. Both of these teams come into this NIT Semi-Final off 13-point wins. Texas defeated Creighton, 71-58, while TCU bested Colorado, 68-55. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are both Big 12 Conference members, of course. And the two teams met twice earlier this season, with TCU coming out on top in both games. However, Texas now falls into several revenge systems of mine, with records of 35-12, 35-18 and 10-0 ATS. Even better: TCU is an awful 35-56-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded Conference foe, including 4-16 ATS if the Horned Frogs were off a double-digit win. Take the Longhorns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Hawks v. Spurs -9.5||Top||111-117||Loss||-110||17 h 37 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks beat the league's #1 team on Sunday, while the Spurs were stunned, 113-106, at home by Sacramento. I love the Spurs to bounce back this evening, as NBA teams off 7-point (or worse) defeats have gone 115-77, 60% ATS, vs. foes off upset wins over .667 (or better) teams. San Antonio has also cashed 75% since April 18, 1993 off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite. Lay the points with the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Lakers v. Thunder -12.5||Top||103-119||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Los Angeles. The Lakers come into tonight's game off back to back wins (and covers) over Charlotte (129-115) and New Orleans (130-102), while the Thunder suffered their biggest upset loss of the season, on Sunday, when they fell to Dallas, as a 12.5-point favorite (106-103). OKC will once again be favored by double-digits tonight, and I expect a much different result than the last time these two teams met (the Lakers upset OKC, 138-128, on Jan. 17). First of all, the Lakers are an awful 33-62-4 ATS in the regular season off back to back wins and covers, if their opponent was off a loss. And, second, the Thunder are 32-15 ATS in the Regular season when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if the Thunder owned a winning record. Lay the points with OKC. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|04-01-19||Bucks v. Nets +2||Top||131-121||Loss||-105||7 h 6 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks' injury list is extensive for tonight's game: Nikola Mirotic (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Out), Pau Gasol (Out), Donte DiVincenzo (Out), Khris Middleton (Questionable), Tony Snell (Questionable). They played yesterday in Atlanta (also minus Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo), and went into overtime in a 136-135 loss. That sets up Milwaukee in a bad situation tonight, as unrested teams are 25-44 ATS after playing in a high-scoring game (262+ points) the day before. Certainly, this is a big game for both of these teams, as each is fighting for playoff positions. But Brooklyn's urgency is a bit greater as it sits just a half-game behind Detroit for 6th, and is in front of Miami by the same amount for the 7th spot. Milwaukee, meanwhile, still has 3 games of breathing room between it and Toronto for the #1 spot (with just five games to play). Brooklyn lost at home to these Bucks, 113-94, in their last meeting. But Brooklyn is 14-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS its last 11, when playing with revenge and not getting more than 6 points. Take the Nets. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|04-01-19||Maple Leafs -109 v. Islanders||Top||2-1||Win||100||2 h 25 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the New York Islanders. The Maple Leafs will try to salvage the third game of their 3-game road trip tonight. They lost at Philadelphia, 5-4, and then lost at Ottawa, 4-2. The good news for the Leafs is that they've only lost three-in-a-row once this season, as they're a super 11-1 this season when working on a two-game losing streak. The Islanders, meanwhile, are ripe for a letdown following their back-to-back 5-goal efforts at Winnipeg (5-4) and vs. Buffalo (5-1). New York's a poor 34-45 (minus 11 games on the money line) after scoring 3+ goals in back to back games. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-31-19||Bruins -191 v. Red Wings||Top||3-6||Loss||-191||15 h 36 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over Detroit. The Red Wings come into game off their first home shutout win of the season -- 4-0 vs. New Jersey. And that was just their 2nd shutout of the season, overall. This is a tough spot for the Red Wings, as they're playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, while Boston has had the last two days off. Detroit is an awful 1-10 at home when playing its 3rd game in four nights. And it's also just 24-60 its last 84 divisional contests, and 12-27 after giving up less than two goals in its previous game. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-31-19||Kings v. Spurs -9||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||14 h 5 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento. The Spurs earned a playoff berth last night when Sacramento lost to Houston. And that moved the Spurs into the NBA record books as they've now made the Playoffs for 22 seasons in a row (tied with the 76ers franchise, 1950-71)! Tonight, the Spurs will take on Sacramento. And San Antonio will look to avenge its loss at Sacramento last month. This is a huge game for the Spurs as they want to win each of their last six games to avoid finishing in 8th place, and drawing the Warriors in the Opening Round. San Antonio is 48-26 ATS off a win, if it was playing with revenge against an opponent off a loss, and the Spurs weren't favored by 13+ points. Take San Antonio to blow out the Kings. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||Top||68-67||Loss||-107||12 h 4 m||Show|
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State. Mike Krzyzewski has owned Tom Izzo, with seven straight wins in this series. This evening, I look for Duke to rip off its 8th straight win vs. Michigan State. Yes, it's true that the Spartans come into this game off impressive wins over LSU (80-63) and Minnesota (70-50), while Duke has yet to cover the spread in the Tourney. But Number 1-seeded teams have covered 68% off back to back ATS losses, if their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins. Additionally, Duke falls into several of my very best systems, with records of 287-191, 32-8 and 164-81 ATS. Lay the small number with the Blue Devils. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||18 h 39 m||Show|
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Purdue. The Boilermakers upset Tennessee, in overtime, on Thursday. Unfortunately, single-digit underdogs (or PK) off upset wins have cashed just 57 of 132 NCAA Tournament games vs. foes off a point spread loss. And teams off overtime wins are a horrid 29% ATS since 2001, including 9-38 ATS when priced from -3 to +10 points. Take Virginia. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4||Top||75-69||Loss||-109||15 h 0 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are off to a 3-0 ATS start to this Tournament. And they've won each game in blowout fashion, with wins by 15 (Northern Kentucky), 20 (Buffalo) and 19 (Michigan). Unfortunately, NCAA Tourney teams have cashed just 18.7% over the last 29 years off three ATS wins, if they won those three games by 15+ points. Take Gonzaga today to blow out Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Flyers v. Hurricanes -190||Top||2-5||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Philadelphia Flyers. No team has been as up-and-down this season as the Flyers. Looking totally lost at some times and like a playoff team at others, the Flyers have pretty much been treading water for the last two months and look to be staying home for the post-season this year. They somehow managed to beat the Maple Leafs in their last, 5-4, in a shootout. But the Flyers were just 2-5 in their previous seven games. The 'Canes did not help their case for a Wild Card spot this past week, losing two straight games. But those were against the defending Cup Champion Capitals, who are hungry to repeat. And the Canes did go 4-1 in their previous five, with the only loss coming against the best team in the League (Tampa). They are no doubt looking forward to their final five games, three of which come against the Flyers (2) and Devils. The Flyers are just 18-20 away from Philadelphia this season while Carolina is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record. Take the Hurricanes. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|03-29-19||Houston v. Kentucky -2.5||Top||58-62||Win||100||44 h 45 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Houston. The Wildcats have rebounded off their loss to Tennessee in the SEC Conference Tournament with back to back wins (and covers) over Abilene Christian and Wofford. On Friday, the Wildcats will take on the 33-3 Houston Cougars. And Kentucky is at its very best in the post-season when matched up against top-level teams with a win percentage of .750 (or better), if Kentucky is not off 3+ ATS wins. Since 1991, the Wildcats are an awesome 42-14-2 ATS, including 11-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points with Kentucky. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-28-19||Oregon v. Virginia -8||Top||49-53||Loss||-115||20 h 12 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Oregon. The Ducks, as a 12 seed, are the lowest seed remaining in this Tourney. They upset Wisconsin in the first round, and then caught a break by getting to play 13-seed Cal Irvine last Sunday. Oregon was favored by 4.5 in that game, and won, 73-54. Unfortunately, Oregon won't be catching a break in the Sweet 16, as they'll have to play the 2nd best team in the Tournament. And teams seeded #11 (or worse), that won as a favorite in Round 2, are a horrid 0-13 straight up and 3-9-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round. Admittedly, the Ducks are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 10 straight wins and covers. But that's never been a positive indicator in this NCAA Tournament, as teams off 9+ ATS wins have covered just 22% over the past 26 years. Take Virginia. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-28-19||Florida State v. Gonzaga -7||Top||58-72||Win||100||39 h 21 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Florida State. Number 1 seeds have dominated, lately, in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 Round. Over the last four seasons, they've gone 12-0 straight-up, and 10-1-1 ATS. And, dating back to 1990, #1 seeds, priced from -6 to -10 points, are 37-4 straight-up and 27-13-1 ATS in the Sweet 16. This is also a huge revenge game for Gonzaga, which lost in last season's Sweet 16 Round to these same Seminoles. Last season, the Bulldogs were a #4 seed, but they were still favored by 6 over the 9th-seeded Seminoles, who pulled off the upset, 75-60. However, in the post-season, over the last 18 years, teams playing with revenge from an upset Tourney loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 7 points, have gone 12-0 straight-up and 10-0-2 ATS (including 6 outright upset wins)! Take Gonzaga to blow out the Seminoles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-27-19||Stars v. Flames -160||Top||2-1||Loss||-160||18 h 48 m||Show|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Dallas Stars. With six games to go in the regular season, the Flames are inching ever closer to wrapping up the best record in the West (along with home ice through the Conference Finals). So it's a bit of a mystery how -- as a huge favorite and riding a three-game win streak -- Calgary managed to get shut out by the Kings in its last game on Monday, 3-0. About the only thing you can point to is the fact that goalie Mike Smith had been used in three straight games in five days (with a road game in the middle) and simply ran out of gas. So tonight the Flames will turn to David Rittich and give Smith a much-needed break. He may be a little-known back-up with just 16 starts under his belt heading into the season, but Rittich has been rock-solid so far for his team with a 26-12 record in his starts with a .911 save pct and 2.63 GAA. This is a big revenge situation as the Stars have beaten the Flames in both their meetings this season. The Flames are 12-5 (+ 6 games on the money line) in their last 17 revenging two consecutive losses. And Dallas is 8-25 (including 1-8 this season) after scoring more than 4 goals in their previous game. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|03-27-19||Colorado v. Texas -5.5||Top||55-68||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Colorado, in the quarterfinals of the NIT Tournament. The Buffaloes won and covered their first two games in this NIT Tournament. But both of those were played in Boulder. This game will be in Austin, Texas. And Colorado is a horrid 9-27 straight-up and 8-27-1 ATS in its last 36 lined road games, including 2-18 ATS when the Buffaloes owned a W/L percentage greater than .600. Even worse: the Buffs are 9-24 ATS off back to back ATS wins, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Meanwhile, the Big 12 Conference has been strong (8-1 ATS their last nine) in the NIT Tournament, at the quarterfinal round forward. Take Texas to blow out the Buffaloes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
|03-27-19||Pacers v. Thunder -6||Top||99-107||Win||100||16 h 27 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Indiana. These two teams met 13 days ago in Indianapolis, and the Pacers came away with a 2-point victory, as a 1-point home favorite. That game kick-started a 1-5 SU/ATS stretch for the Thunder, which reached its lowest point this past Monday when they lost to the woeful Grizzlies, 115-103. OKC is now in 7th place in the Western Conference. But I love OKC to bounce back on this Wednesday. Indiana hasn't been able to beat quality teams on the road this season. Since December 19, the Pacers are 0-10 straight up and 2-8 ATS on the road vs. foes with a win percentage of .481 (or better). And OKC is 43-21-2 ATS in the regular season when playing with same-season revenge vs. Eastern Conference foes that won their previous game. Take the Thunder. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-26-19||Kings v. Oilers -198||Top||4-8||Win||100||15 h 45 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Los Angeles Kings. For the first 10 years of his career, the Kings' Jonathan Quick was one of the most feared goalies in the league. Along with dominant numbers, multiple All Star appearances, and numerous individual awards came two Stanley Cup Championships (2012 and 2014). But to say that Quick has taken a step back this season would be a gross understatement. His GAA (3.25), and saves percentage (.891) are both career-worsts, and he will finish the season with a losing record for the first time since he became a full-time net-minder in 2008-2009. It wouldn't be fair to pin all of the fault for L.A.'s lousy season on Quick, but he certainly hasn't helped matters much. The Oilers looked like they might be a playoff team into early December, but those hopes have since been dashed by their inconsistent play. The Kings beat the Oilers in the last meeting in L.A., 4-0 but Edmonton is 10-4 (+8 games on the money line) in its last 14 revenging a loss in which it scored one goal or less. The home team is also 20-7 in the last 27 meetings. Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|03-26-19||Wichita State v. Indiana -4.5||Top||73-63||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Wichita State. The Shockers will attempt to become the first NIT Tournament team (in the Tourney's 82-year history) to knock off its Region's Top 3 Seeds. Wichita has already won blowouts at Furman (76-70) and at Clemson (63-55). Unfortunately for the Shockers, NIT Tourney teams are a soft 34-54 ATS away from home after covering the point spread by 6+ points in each of their previous two games. Take Indiana to blow out Wichita. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.