|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-15-19||Cubs +185 v. Dodgers||Top||2-1||Win||185||19 h 33 m||Show|
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the surface, this looks like a mis-match with the red-hot young RHP ace Walker Buehler going to the mound at home against the Cubs and the struggling Yu Darvish. But Buehler -- who came into the league as a full-time starter last season -- has never faced the Cubs at home before and he has a rather pedestrian 4.13 ERA in five home starts this season (vs. 2.87 in eight outings on the road). In his only other career start vs. the Cubs, Buehler allowed three runs in just 5 2/3 innings this past April 24th in a 7-6 loss. The Cubs will go with RHP Yu Darvish. And although the Japanese import has struggled through much of the first half, he has pitched well lately, with a 3.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three outings. The Cubs are 4-1 in Darvish's last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. And they have great value as a big underdog at this inflated price. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-15-19||Padres v. Rockies -167||Top||8-14||Win||100||18 h 3 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. After becoming the Rockies' workhorse in 2018 with 33 starts and 196 innings, RHP German Marquez is at it again this season. Marquez leads the NL with 15 starts and 96 2/3 innings pitched. His 4.19 ERA is higher than the number he put up in his breakout 2018 season (3.77), but Marquez's 6-3 record puts him on a pace to at least match the 14 victories his logged last season. Start number 16 comes tonight at home against the Padres. It was one of the craziest games of the season here last night, with the Padres tying the game with six runs in the 9th inning, and prevailing in 12 innings by a 16-12 tally. Unfortunately, for Padres LHP starter Eric Lauer, he has to face a team tonight that has given him all kinds of fits. In three career starts vs. Colorado, Lauer is 0-2 and he has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) in 11 innings for an ERA of 11.45. Despite their extra-innings win on Friday night, the Padres are still just 2-7 in the last nine meetings with the Rockies. Take Colorado.
|06-15-19||Phillies -104 v. Braves||Top||6-5||Win||100||17 h 43 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After a career season in which he finished third in the NL Cy Young voting, Aaron Nola has taken a step back in terms of his ERA. The Phillies ace has seen that number rise more than two runs, going from 2.37 to 4.58 over his first 14 starts. But we've also seen Nola put up a W/L ledger of 6-1, which puts him on a pace to at least match the 17 wins he had in 2018. The ERA could definitely get some relief tonight as in four previous starts at SunTrust Park, Nola has a 2.13 ERA in just over 25 innings. And in his last two starts against Atlanta, Nola is 2-0, allowing just one earned run on four hits in 13 innings with 16 strikeouts. After his last start on April 13 in which he allowed four runs on five hits in just 1 1/3 innings, Braves' LHP Sean Newcomb was demoted to the bullpen. He's pitched very well in that role and now those relief numbers have earned him another starting shot. But facing the Phillies is a tall task. And the Braves are a woeful 5-11 in Newcomb's last 16 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Philadelphia.
|06-14-19||Blue Jays v. Astros -270||Top||2-15||Win||100||17 h 7 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite several of their players either being hurt of just not performing to their normal level, the Houston Astros are still one of the best teams in the league and are running away with their division once again. One of those players who has under-achieved so far is RHP Gerrit Cole. After going 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 32 starts last season, Cole is just 5-5 and 3.72 in his first 14 in 2019. But the hard-throwing 28 year-old should round into form like he almost always does and it's scary to think how good the 'Stros will be if he gets back to his All-Star level of 2018 anytime soon. And Cole has been coming on strong lately, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts covering 19 innings (while the 'Stros are 3-0 in those). Houston is 9-5 in his 14 starts, another indication of the quality of this team from top to bottom. For technical support, consider that the Astros are a perfect 8-0 this season following an off-day, and are 44-19 (+10 games on the money line) this season as a favorite. Likewise, Cole's teams have gone 59-22 (+17 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150+ with him on the hill. Finally, this has been a one-sided series lately, especially here at Minute Maid as the Jays are just 7-17 in the last 24 meetings in Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-14-19||Yankees +102 v. White Sox||Top||2-10||Loss||-100||17 h 7 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox. Over his last seven starts -- dating back to May 7 -- White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito has been arguably the best pitcher in the game, allowing just five runs over 51 1/3 innings during that span. But before we hand Giolito the AL Cy Young, let's consider who he's faced in those seven outings. Six of the seven have come against the Indians (basically a .500 team), Blue Jays (24-43) and Royals (arguably the worst team in baseball) -- twice each. And although the seventh was a very good start against the Astros, the fact is that the 24-year-old hasn't exactly been facing the cream of the AL crop in the last month. A start against the Yankees should help to prove if the hype is for real. Veteran LHP CC Sabathia gets the start for the visitors, and he is 19-7 in 28 career starts vs. the Sox. But even more important for tonight, Sabathia is 10-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 19 starts here at US Cellular Field. Finally, New York is 5-0 in Sabathia's last five starts vs. losing teams and 11-4 in his last 15 immediately following a team loss in its previous game. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-13-19||Cubs v. Dodgers -183||Top||3-7||Win||100||19 h 45 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. Clayton Kershaw may not be back to the level he was before his numerous injuries over the past two seasons, when he was considered one of the best pitchers in the game, but he appears to be getting close. Kershaw is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 starts for the Dodgers. His arm strength seems to be gaining with each start as he's gone seven innings in each of his two June outings, throwing 95 pitches in each. His control has been outstanding as well, as Kershaw has allowed no more than one walk in each of his last eight starts (a total of just six free passes over that span). Start number 11 will come against a non-division opponent with which Kershaw is pretty familiar. In 10 lifetime starts vs. the Cubs, the veteran southpaw is 5-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 63 innings. Perhaps most important is the fact that the Dodgers are 9-1 (+7 games on the money line) in Kershaw's starts this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 2-7 in the last nine meetings at Dodger Stadium. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-13-19||Raptors +3 v. Warriors||Top||114-110||Win||100||18 h 44 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Golden State. This has been an underdog-oriented series this season. The underdog has covered four of the five Playoff games, and six of the seven meetings this season, if one includes the regular season. The Raptors are one game away from winning their first NBA Title, and if history is any indication, they'll get the job done tonight. Indeed, NBA road teams up 3-games-to-2 in a Playoff series have done very well over the last 29 years, as they've cashed 59%, including 78% in the NBA Finals. That bodes very well for Toronto this evening. As does the fact that NBA teams (like Toronto) with a better margin of victory have covered 72.2% of NBA Finals games off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by 5+ points. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5||Top||114-110||Loss||-110||18 h 44 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Golden State game 'under' the total. These two teams went under the total in Game 5. But the only reason it was close to the number was due to the opening quarter. The two teams combined for 62 points in the 1Q, and 73 points in the first 14 minutes, 14 seconds. But, of course, Kevin Durant was on the floor for much of that time period. Thus, following the Durant injury, the two teams combined for 138 points over the final 33 minutes, 46 seconds, which extrapolates to 196.16 if that rate of scoring would apply for the full 48 minutes. And that lines up almost perfectly with Game 4, which had a final score of 105-92. The 'under' also falls into 139-92 and 85-45 Totals systems of mine. This will be a very low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-13-19||Padres v. Rockies -136||Top||6-9||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers may be running away with the NL West at this point (and the National League for that matter) but the race for second place and a likely Wild Card spot is a good one. As of Wednesday, the Rockies, D-Backs, and Padres are all within 2 1/2 games of each other with the Rox currently holding down 2nd place in the division. They've been dynamite here at home this season, going 20-12 at Coors Field coming into this important four-game weekend series against San Diego. RHP Jon Gray is scheduled to go to the mound for the 14th time this season. And although it's been a bit of an inconsistent first half for him (5-5 with a 4.27 ERA), Gray is still effective and can strike out just about any hitter in the game. And there's nobody he's likes facing more than the Padres -- according to the numbers. In 17 career starts vs. San Diego, Gray is 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just over 103 innings. The Rockies are 11-2 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 13 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Take Colorado.
|06-13-19||Cardinals +126 v. Mets||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||16 h 45 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets. There was some speculation during the 2018 season that, despite his spectacular numbers in ERA, WHIP, and K:BB ratio, if Jacob deGrom didn't at least get to 10 wins, he wouldn't win the Cy Young. He barely got there, posting a 10-9 ledger, and the 30-year-old RHP took home the honors for the first time in his career. 2019 hasn't been as kind to deGrom, who is just 3-6 with a much more normal looking 3.45 ERA over his first 13 starts. And to make matters worse, deGrom has really struggled at home this season, going 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA in six starts in Queens. He'll try again tonight against a very good Cardinals team and RHP Jack Flaherty. The young strikeout artist got off to a very rough start in 2019, posting a 5.25 ERA over his first five starts. But he has settled down since then, and reduced that number by more than a run (4.08) and also now has a winning record at 4-3. Flaherty has never faced the Mets before, but chances are he will thrive in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Take the Cardinals.
|06-12-19||Blues +151 v. Bruins||Top||4-1||Win||151||18 h 12 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Boston Bruins. We've played on the Blues for 10 straight games, so it's no surprise we're backing them in this Winner-Take-All Game 7. The Blues couldn't close things out on Sunday at home, so they're going to have to try to win their first Stanley Cup on the road. It was not a good game for Blues goalie Jordan Binnington, who allowed four goals on 31 shots. But Binnington has a way of rebounding after a sub-par performance. And he certainly doesn't mind playing in Boston. Indeed, in the last two games here, the Blues and Binnington have gone 2-0 and the 25-year-old net-minder has stopped 59 of 62 shots. It's safe to say that tonight's game will be the biggest of Binnington's career, but the young goalie should be up for it. The Blues are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with the Bruins in Boston, and 12-6 on the road when playing with revenge from a home defeat. Take St. Louis as a big underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-12-19||Rangers v. Red Sox -146||Top||3-4||Win||100||14 h 58 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Texas Rangers. After a very rough start to the season, Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello settled down in May and finished the month strong, picking up his fourth victory and reducing his ERA to 4.41. June has been a bit of a struggle so far, but on the other hand, Porcello has had to face the Yankees and Rays in his two starts. Start number three of the month will be his 14th of the season and will come at home against the Rangers and RHP Lance Lynn. Porcello's teams are a super 60-26 (+14 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150+ with him on the hill, so that bodes well for the Red Sox this afternoon. The Rangers are Lynn's fourth MLB team in less than two years. And although 2018 was not very successful for the veteran (10-10 with a 4.77 ERA in 31 games including 29 starts), he's improved on that so far in 2019. But the road has been a bit of a challenge for Lynn this season, as he has gone 4-0 in six home starts but just 3-4 in seven away from Arlington. Texas has won the first two games in this series, but is still a poor 2-7 in the last nine games at Fenway Park. Meanwhile, Boston is 117-62 (+29 games on the money line) vs. righties, and 52-22 when playing with double-revenge. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-11-19||Dodgers -150 v. Angels||Top||3-5||Loss||-150||7 h 45 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Anaheim Angels. Kenta Maeda will make his 13th start of the season. And his last five starts have been very good, as he's gone 4-0, with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP. He's also pitched well vs. the Angels in his career, with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. The Dodgers are a super 32-13 (+14 games on the money line) vs. righties this season, and 50-26 when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-11-19||Padres -160 v. Giants||Top||5-6||Loss||-160||19 h 24 m||Show|
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. Padres rookie RHP Chris Paddack has some of the best control we've seen from an MLB rookie in a long time as he's issued only 12 free passes all season in 11 starts covering just under 61 innings. Putting pitches around the plate too much can cause a lot of damage, but that hasn't happened in Paddack's case as he has a 2.97 ERA so far. Those numbers make the 23-year-old an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year (although he may get competition from his own teammate -- SS Fernando Tatis, Jr.). It's hard to imagine a better scenario for Paddack's 12th start than pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and the anemic offense of the Giants. San Francisco's .221 team batting average is the lowest in the league and it's even worse at home as the Giants are hitting an unbelievable .208 here. Finally, the Giants are 6-21 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Padres.
|06-11-19||Cubs -126 v. Rockies||Top||3-10||Loss||-126||18 h 18 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Colorado Rockies. Cubs LHP Jose Quintana has a chance for some revenge tonight. His last start on June 6 was against these Rockies and it was one of his better outings of the season, but Quintana got very little run support. His opponent that day was 22-year-old rookie RHP Peter Lambert, who was making his MLB debut and pitched very well to pick up the victory. But that game was in pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field and now Lambert must make his Coors Field debut. And that could be -- no pun intended -- a whole different ballgame. Also, before Lambert threw seven one-run innings in his debut, he had posted a 5.07 ERA in 11 starts at AAA Albuquerque so there's little to suggest in his pedigree or his Minor League numbers that he will duplicate his Wrigley success. Quintana's numbers at Coors are very respectable -- a 2-0 record with a 4.58 ERA in three starts here. Finally, the Cubs are 19-9 in Quintana's last 28 starts following a team loss in its previous game. Take the Cubs.
|06-11-19||Reds v. Indians -117||Top||1-2||Win||100||17 h 48 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Cincinnati Reds. Sitting in 3rd place in their division, almost a dozen games behind the Twins and with a bunch of soon-to-be big money free agents, the Indians are likely going to be shopping some veteran players. Included in their fire sale will likely be RHP Trevor Bauer. Bauer is signed through this season at a modest $13M, and although his numbers have taken a bit of a hit in 2019, the hard-throwing 28-year-old is still seen as one of the most sought after potential trade acquisitions out there. Bauer will get start number 15 tonight at home against the Reds in a battle for Ohio bragging rights. Bauer is very effective in inter-league play, going 11-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 27 games (including 26 starts) totaling just under 163 innings. The Reds are 4-17 in their last 21 meetings in Cleveland and 11-18 (minus 10 games on the money line) in their last 29 immediately following a victory. They are also 0-8 in their last eight games vs. teams from the AL Central. Take the Tribe.
|06-11-19||Diamondbacks v. Phillies -124||Top||4-7||Win||100||17 h 43 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona. The Diamondbacks are on a roll, with five straight wins (and 7 of their last 9). But we will fade Arizona tonight following its 13-8 victory here last night. The Phillies have been strong at home this season (22-13), and they're an awesome 60-31 (+17 games on the money line) their last 91 as a home favorite. Jake Arrieta will take the mound for Philly tonight. And he's been super vs. Arizona in his career, with a 2.23 ERA in nine starts, and a WHIP of 0.98. Even better: in the last two years, he's made four starts vs. Arizona, and his ERA in those games was 0.96 with a WHIP of 0.78. Take Philadelphia.
|06-10-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||106-105||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over Toronto. After dropping the the last two games, the defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against a team in such a predicament. But teams down 3-games-to-1 in a 7-game series have actually been very good against the point spread over the years, including 61-39 ATS if they were not getting 9+ points. That bodes well for the Warriors tonight. As does the fact that Golden State has been super as a road underdog off a straight-up loss, when matched up against an opponent off a win. Since December 20, 2011, it is 31-7 ATS, including perfect 6-0 when playing with double-revenge from two losses earlier in the season. Finally, teams (like Toronto) off back-to-back upset wins on the road have covered just 34.7% since 1990 vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .650, including 9-30 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in each of those two upset wins. With their backs against the wall, we'll grab the points with the Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-10-19||Cubs v. Rockies -137||Top||5-6||Win||100||19 h 58 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Chicago Cubs. The Rockies will hand the ball to German Marquez tonight. After a dominant second-half of last season (2.47 ERA), Marquez has been inconsistent to start 2019. He has a 6-3 record, but his ERA is on the high side at 4.07. However, when one pitches half of his games at Coors Field, that's to be expected. Perhaps the better barometer of a Colorado pitcher is to just look at his Road ERA/WHIP, and Marquez's Road numbers are fantastic this season (3.32 ERA; 0.82 WHIP). Tonight, he'll face Yu Darvish and the Cubs. Darvish's numbers are pedestrian, at best, this season (4.88 ERA; 1.52 WHIP). We'll take the Rockies, as they're a super 56-27 (+17 games on the money line) as a home favorite, while Chicago's an awful 3-11 (minus 7 games on the money line) as a road underdog this season. And Darvish's teams are 3-10 in his career as an underdog with him on the mound. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-10-19||Rangers +230 v. Red Sox||Top||4-3||Win||230||17 h 28 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Boston Red Sox. You wouldn't think that a 3.84 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.8 strikeout rate and 5.79 K:BB ratio would be disappointing numbers for an MLB starter. But when you consider that the starter in question is Chris Sale, you just might have to re-think that. And those numbers come with a very sub-par record of 2-7 in 13 starts. Meanwhile, Rangers LHP Mike Minor will get his 14th start of the season tonight. And Minor has resurrected his career this season in Texas. After going 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 28 starts with the Rangers last year, Minor has taken another step forward in his second season here. In 13 starts, the 31-year-old southpaw is 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA, in just over 81 innings. Fenway Park has not been very friendly to Sale this season, as the Boston ace is 0-2 with a 4.45 ERA in five starts covering just over 28 innings here at his home venue in 2019. Even worse: the Red Sox are 4-8 in their last 12 home games, and 8-12 (minus 9 games on the money line) vs. lefties this season. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-09-19||Bruins v. Blues -116||Top||5-1||Loss||-116||55 h 18 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Boston Bruins. The last time we played against St. Louis was in Game 1 of its series vs. San Jose. We had our NHL Game of the Year on the Sharks, and easily won with a 6-3 Sharks victory. However, even though I wanted to fade the Blues in that Game 1, I was pretty sure it would be the last time I would fade them, as I believed they would win the Stanley Cup. Since then, St. Louis has played 10 games, and we've been on them 9 times (and passed the other game completely). Now, after a hard-fought road victory Thursday night, the Blues are one win away from their first-ever Stanley Cup. It's a similar situation to what the Capitals found themselves in one year ago when they won their first Cup in Game 6 against the Golden Knights in Vegas. The big difference for the Blues tonight is that their Game 6 will be at home, where they've had so much success, both in the regular season and playoffs. The Blues won what looked like a close game on Thursday, but they were shutting out the Bruins, 2-0, until Boston finally got on the board with less than seven minutes remaining. Most important is the fact that Jordan Binnington was stellar once again, stopping 38 of 39 shots. Also critical in its victory was the fact that St. Louis made the most of its opportunities, by scoring twice in just 21 shots on goalie Tuukka Rask. If they can pepper Rask with shots tonight the way they did in Games 2, 3, and 4, then the Blues should be hoisting the Cup when the final horn sounds. St. Louis is an awesome 27-9 its last 36 vs. strong offensive teams that score 3+ goals per game. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-09-19||Orioles v. Astros -185||Top||0-4||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Baltimore Orioles. Wade Miley seems to be hitting his stride in his early 30s rather than the normal prime age of 26-to-28. Miley put up some of the best numbers of his career last season (at age 31) going 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 16 starts. This season, Miley is 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA in his first 13 starts. Of course, it doesn't hurt that over this season and last, the veteran southpaw has pitched for two of the best teams in the Majors (the Brewers in 2018 and now the Astros). No doubt, Miley would like to forget his one and only season with the Orioles as he went 8-15 with a 5.61 ERA in 2017 in Baltimore. Start number 14 will come against that former team this afternoon in Houston. And it's an understatement to say that Miley is enjoying his new home. In six starts this season at Minute Maid Park, Miley is 3-1 with a stellar 2.23 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in just over 36 innings. Miley's teams are also 7-1 (+6 games on the money line) in his last eight starts as a favorite and 8-1 in his last nine starts as a favorite of -150 or higher. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-09-19||Rays -105 v. Red Sox||Top||6-1||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. It's not unusual for a young Cy Young winner to return the following season with some under-achieving numbers early on. That's certainly been the case Rays' LHP Blake Snell, who is just 3-5 with a 3.68 ERA over his first 12 starts. But despite those struggles, there are indications that Snell is every bit the pitcher he was in 2018. His walk rate this season of 2.6 is substantially better than the 3.2 number he put up last year and that has resulted in a stellar K:BB rate of 4.79 (also much better than 2018). He gets start #13 this afternoon at Fenway Park, and that's not a bad thing -- at least not for Snell. In eight career starts vs. the Red Sox, Snell has a winning record (4-3) with a very nice 3.22 ERA in just under 45 innings. The Sox will go with LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. Although the 26 year-old southpaw has a 6-3 record overall, he is just 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA in two daytime starts (vs. 5-2 and 4.61 in 10 starts under the lights). The Rays are 21-9 (+6.5 games on the money line) in their last 30 road games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-08-19||A's -127 v. Rangers||Top||1-3||Loss||-127||4 h 33 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Texas Rangers. Chris Bassitt will start this game for Oakland, and it will be the 2nd time this season that he faced the Rangers. He also faced Texas in his season debut, and he held the Rangers scoreless over five innings en route to a 6-1 Oakland victory. For the season, Bassitt's 3-1 in eight starts with a 3.42 ERA. But he's done his best work away from home, where he's 1-0 in four starts, with a 2.66 ERA. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Adrian Sampson, has an ERA north of 6 runs per game this season. We'll take Oakland as the road favorite tonight, as they are 101-55 (+27 games on the money line) as a favorite, in general. And they're 227-117 (+51 games on the money line) as a road favorite of -125 or higher. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-08-19||Cardinals -108 v. Cubs||Top||4-9||Loss||-108||18 h 53 m||Show|
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. As a second-year MLB Rookie last season, Cards RHP Jack Flaherty had a very successful campaign in virtually every category except for the wins and losses. In 28 starts in 2018, Flaherty went 8-9 with a 3.34 ERA an 1.11 WHIP and he ended the season by finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. This season, Flaherty is out to show that 2018 was no fluke -- and that he can turn that losing record into a winning one. In 12 starts, Flaherty is 4-3 with a 3.76 ERA. And he has reduced his walk rate from 3.5 to 2.8, resulting in a very impressive K:BB ratio of 3.65. The Cubs will go with veteran LHP Jon Lester, who is hoping tonight goes better than his last home start against the Cardinals. Last July 20, Lester had one of the ugliest outings of his long and distinguished career, allowing eight runs on seven hits with five walks in just three innings here at Wrigley in an lopsided 18-5 loss to the Cards. The starter for the visitors in that one? None other than Flaherty. St. Louis is a super 19-5 (+13 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less this season, including 6-1 on the road. Take the Cardinals.
|06-08-19||Yankees -135 v. Indians||Top||4-8||Loss||-135||15 h 48 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Indians. CC Sabathia signed a very inexpensive (for MLB) $8 million, one-year contract last November for what could be his last Major League campaign. But persistent rumors that the Yankees could sign FA LHP Dallas Keuchel could put that contract -- and Sabathia's time in the Bronx -- in jeopardy. So it's clear that the best thing he can do is go out there every five days (or however often his team needs him) and pitch well. So far, the 38-year-old LHP has been doing that for the most part, with a 3-2 record and 3.61 ERA in nine starts. Start number 10 will come at the place Sabathia called home for the first seven-plus seasons of his MLB career. And the good news there is that Sabathia has had a lot of success in Cleveland, posting a 51-41 record and 3.81 ERA in 124 starts covering just under 793 innings. In fact, in his last seven starts here (all with the Yankees, and going back to the 2011 season), New York is 5-2. The Yanks are also 8-4 in their last 12 road games and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Tribe. Take New York.
|06-08-19||Rays v. Red Sox -160||Top||9-2||Loss||-160||12 h 42 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. And, for this game, please only list Boston's starter, Josh Smith. Due to a weather-related postponement on April 26, these two teams will play a twin-bill today at Fenway starting with this daytime affair. Since 2011, the MLB has allowed teams to add one player to its 25-man roster on days when they have a scheduled doubleheader. And so for this first game, the Sox have called up Smith, a 31-year-old RHP, from Pawtucket. This will be his second start of the season, and the 11th start of his MLB career. The good news, though, for the veteran pitcher is that, after short stints with the Reds and A's, he has the best offense he's ever had behind him -- even with Boston's many injuries. And the fact that the Red Sox lost the series opener bodes well for Smith this afternoon, as Boston is a fantastic 98-59 (+27 games on the money line) in its last 157 coming immediately off of a loss. And when playing in a double revenge situation (as they are in this game), the Sox are 11-3 (+8 games on the money line) this season, and 50-21 (+28 games on the money line) the last three years. Take Boston.
|06-07-19||Dodgers -228 v. Giants||Top||1-2||Loss||-228||18 h 7 m||Show|
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco. Certainly, Clayton Kershaw has been one of the National League's very best (if not the best) pitcher over the last several years. And, out of all his great numbers, one of his very best is when he's faced bad teams on the road. Indeed, the Dodgers are an awesome 31-6 on the road with Kershaw on the hill when matched up against foes with a win percentage between .380 and .460. Likewise, the Dodgers are 112-51 (+19 games on the money line) with Kershaw when facing offensively-challenged teams that hit .255 (or worse). And they've gone 29-6 this season when priced at -150 (or higher). Kershaw will face a fellow lefty, Drew Pomeranz, tonight. And Pomeranz is hanging from a thread to stay in the rotation, as he's 1-6, with an 8.08 ERA. Last Friday's start in Baltimore, against the awful Orioles, was one of his worst: 1 1-3 IP, 8 runs, 6 H, 2 BB. Take the Dodgers.
|06-07-19||Raptors v. Warriors -4.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-103||17 h 0 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Toronto. We played on the Raptors in Game 3, and got the $$$ with a 123-109 upset win. However, I look for the Warriors to bounce back tonight. Indeed, Golden State is a virtually-perfect 12-1 ATS when trailing in a Playoff series, if the Warriors owned a .600 (or better) win percentage (including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS at home). And they're a terrific 37-18 ATS as a home favorite off a loss when playing an opponent off a win. With Klay Thompson back on the court tonight, the Warriors will get a player who is huge for both their offensive and their defensive game plans. And that's all I need to pull the trigger on Steve Kerr's troops. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-07-19||Yankees v. Indians +119||Top||2-5||Win||119||15 h 1 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. Zach (nephew of Dan) Plesac has pitched great in his first two MLB starts -- both on the road. In his debut, he held the Red Sox to just 1 run in 5 1-3 innings. And, then, last Saturday, he gave up a single run over 7 frames to the White Sox. Tonight, Plesac will get his first home start, and he'll face Domingo German. The Yankee hurler was bombed in his only other start here, in Cleveland, as he gave up 6 runs over 4 innings. And he's also in poor form, as his ERA over his last three outings is an ugly 7.90. With the Indians installed as a home underdog, we'll take Cleveland tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-07-19||Cardinals v. Cubs -127||Top||1-3||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. Already a good team with a very good pitching staff, the Cubs landed another premier arm earlier this week when they signed RHP Craig Kimbrel. The Cubs' 3.89 team ERA ranks them third in the NL, but their 13 saves to this point is near the bottom. Kimbrel should take over as the closer, although that may not happen for a couple of weeks as he builds up his arm strength. This afternoon, the Cubs will send LHP Cole Hamels to the mound for his 13th start of the season and Hamels has been healthy and pitching well. The veteran is 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA and he's been especially tough here at home with a 3.26 ERA in five Wrigley starts. The Cards will go with RHP Miles Mikolas, whose overall numbers aren't horrible (4-5; 4.41) but who has some dramatic home-road splits. In seven starts at Busch Stadium, Mikolas is 3-3 with a very nice 2.87 ERA, however in five road starts he is 1-2 with an ugly 7.66 number. The Cardinals are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings with the Cubs at Wrigley. Take Chicago.
|06-06-19||Blues +136 v. Bruins||Top||2-1||Win||136||15 h 13 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Boston Bruins. In what was the closest thing they've had to a must-win situation since their Game 7 against the Stars in the second round, the Blues took Game 4 and evened this series at two-apiece heading back to Boston. It was the third game in a row that St. Louis has out-shot Boston. And for the third game in a row the Blues held the Bruins to just 23 shots on goalie Jordan Binnington. They've now out-shot the Bruins 104-69 over the last three games. But they also know they can't look back and have to focus on tonight and the biggest game of the season so far. And the Bruins suffered what could be a big loss in Game 4 when big D-man Zdeno Chara took a puck to the face and appears to have a broken jaw. His status for tonight is officially listed as questionable, but he didn't skate with his team in the Wednesday practice and it's looking more and more like he won't be available. St. Louis is 9-2 on the road off a home win in which it scored more than three goals. And the Blues are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings here in Boston, and won't be intimidated by the Beantown crowd. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-06-19||Twins -108 v. Indians||Top||5-4||Win||100||14 h 9 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over Cleveland. This game features a pitching match-up between Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer. And the two right-handers are going in opposite directions. The Twins have won Berrios' last three starts (and eight of his last nine), while the Indians have lost each of Bauer's last three starts (and five of his last six). Even better for Minnesota: Bauer's Home ERA this season is an awful 5.86, and he's 0-3 (in four starts) with a 5.11 ERA within the division. In contrast, Berrios is 3-0, with a 1.93 ERA within the division (in four starts), and his Road ERA this season is 3.86. With Minnesota being 34-14 (+21 games on the money line) vs. righties this season, we'll back the road team on this Thursday night. Take the Twins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-05-19||Raptors +5 v. Warriors||Top||123-109||Win||100||19 h 8 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Golden State. The Raptors have won three of the four meetings vs. Golden State this season, with an average margin of victory at +6.50, and an average point spread differential of +5.12. We'll grab the points with the Raptors, as they're 13-4 ATS as an underdog vs. .625 (or better) opposition. Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just 2 of their last 10 Playoff games off an upset win over their current opponent, including 0-6 ATS vs. .685 (or better) foes! Finally, home favorites have covered just 23% in the NBA Finals off an upset win over their opponent. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-05-19||Orioles v. Rangers -167||Top||1-2||Win||100||18 h 5 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles got their man on Monday night, taking catcher Adley Rutschman from Oregon State with the first overall pick in the MLB draft. Although he's no doubt the best young amateur offensive player on the planet, Rutschman unfortunately can't step in to help the O's right now -- and they need help. Baltimore's 19-41 record is the worst in the Majors, but they knew this was likely in 2019 -- and possibly next year as well. The O's will have their "Ace" on the mound in LHP John Means while the Rangers will turn to one of their best pitchers right now as well in LHP Mike Minor. These two have nearly identical stats so if the pitching match-up is a wash, then you have to like the Rangers who have a much better offense at this point. The Rangers' 334 runs scored through 58 games is second in the AL (only to the Twins), and their .791 OPS is third (MIN & HOU). Despite their upset win here last night, the O's are only 5-11 in the last 16 games at Globe Life Park. Take Texas.
|06-05-19||Yankees -202 v. Blue Jays||Top||7-11||Loss||-202||17 h 6 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Toronto. James Paxton returned seven days ago from a multi-week stretch on the Injured List. And he was fantastic, as he pitched four no-hit innings in San Diego. He'll match up against Trent Thornton tonight at Rogers Centre, which bodes well for New York, as Thornton's 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA at home this season. The Yankees are a solid 12-3 this season as a road favorite, while the Blue Jays are a horrid 42-70 (minus 26 games on the money line) vs. lefties. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-04-19||Phillies +151 v. Padres||Top||9-6||Win||151||21 h 57 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego. The Phillies will hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who has been terrific in his career vs. the Padres. In four starts, he's a perfect 3-0 (with one no-decision), and has a 1.96 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Last night, the Padres walloped the Phillies, 8-2. But the Phils are an awesome 9-2 this season after giving up 8+ runs (and 6-1 after losing by 6+ runs). Even better: the Padres are a wallet-busting 8-14 (minus 10 games on the money line) this season in nighttime home games. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-04-19||Rays -255 v. Tigers||Top||6-9||Loss||-255||18 h 58 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Detroit Tigers. Last season, Blake Snell went from relative unknown to Cy Young award winner with league-best numbers in two of the three major pitching categories -- Wins (21) and ERA (1.89). So heading into this season, there were no longer any secrets about the Tampa Bay southpaw and as you might expect, he has regressed somewhat off of those absurd numbers of 2018. But despite just three victories in his first 11 starts, Snell is still a bona-fide ace, and he will likely get stronger as the season progresses and with the Rays already 13 games over .500, that's a bit of a scary thought. A start in Detroit against the 22-34 Tigers should help get Snell -- who hasn't registered a victory since May 6 -- back on track. Although he's win-less over his last three, Snell has a 1.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over that time and the Rays are 2-1 in those. The Rays are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Tigers who are 5-16 in their last 21 home games. Take Tampa.
|06-04-19||Yankees -175 v. Blue Jays||Top||3-4||Loss||-175||18 h 54 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. With injuries to SPs Clay Buchholz and Matt Shoemaker, the Jays have been forced to rely on Trent Thornton, Edwin Jackson, and Clayton Richard. The results for the most part have not been pretty, although Richard -- who gets his third start of the year tonight -- is the only one with numbers that are somewhat respectable. The now-35-year-old came over to the Jays in a trade with the Padres back in December. But he is only 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA 1.38 WHIP in two starts so far. The Yanks have been rumored to be interested in FA Dallas Keuchel due to their own injury issues as ace starter Luis Severino is on the IL with a lat strain and rotator cuff issue. Perhaps surprisingly given his history, one of the Yanks most reliable players so far this season is RHP Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is only 3-4 in 12 starts, but he has a very nice 3.20 ERA in just over 70 innings. More importantly, Tanaka is 11-4 with a 2.69 ERA in 17 starts against the Jays and those 11 wins are tops for him vs. any of his MLB opponents. Take the Yankees.
|06-03-19||Bruins v. Blues -110||Top||2-4||Win||100||18 h 53 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Boston Bruins. The Bruins administered what can only be described as an old-fashioned butt whoopin' to the Blues in Game 3 at Enterprise Center on Saturday night, 7-2. When the smoke cleared and the disappointed crowd had cleared out, the Bruins had wrested home ice back in the series. But the good news for the Blues -- at least for tonight -- is that on four different occasions in these playoffs (the last four times it's happened, in fact), when they've allowed four or more goals, they've come back to win the next game. Tonight is about as close to a must-win situation for St. Louis as it gets as another performance even close to Game 3 would almost certainly hand Lord Stanley's Cup to Boston. The Blues are 7-2 in their last nine after scoring two goals or less in their previous game, and 29-16 off a loss. And they're a perfect 4-0 in this year's Playoffs when trailing in a series. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||109-104||Win||100||15 h 9 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Toronto. For a myriad of reasons, this was always going to be Golden State's most difficult NBA Finals in the Steve Kerr Era. For starters, it's the first time his troops have not had home court advantage in a Finals series. And, of course, it's also the first time his team has had to deal with significant injuries -- not to mention having to face an opponent (unlike Cleveland) which can play lights-out defense. With its back against the wall in this Game 2, I expect the Warriors to compete with the mettle of a 3-time Champion. For technical support, consider that .618 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 63.3% since 1991 as road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss in Game 1, including 69% in the NBA Finals. And the Warriors are an awesome 28-5 ATS as a road underdog of +2 (or more) points off a loss, if their foe is off a win, including 14-1 ATS if their foe is off back-to-back wins! Take the Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|06-02-19||Red Sox -118 v. Yankees||Top||8-5||Win||100||14 h 6 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. Two of the top AL southpaw starters of the last 10+ seasons take the mound against each other in Yankee Stadium in the Sunday night prime-time ESPN game. And, while 39-year-old CC Sabathia reached a milestone that few MLB pitchers will ever be able to claim earlier this season -- 3000 strikeouts -- it is 33-year-old David Price who has more seasons left in his arm. Sabathia is on the verge of another important milestone tonight -- 250 MLB victories -- but he will likely have to wait for that one. Not only does Price have a 2.83 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 4.82 K:BB ratio in his nine starts so far this season, but he also has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts (against the Jays, Indians, and Astros). This will be Sabathia's first start vs. the Sox since last October when he allowed three runs on five hits in three innings. It was also the second straight outing vs. Boston in which Sabathia didn't go further than three innings. Finally, the Red Sox are 22-4 in their last 26 games after losing the first two games of a series. Take Boston.
|06-02-19||Marlins v. Padres -190||Top||9-3||Loss||-190||13 h 11 m||Show|
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Miami Marlins. After putting up a very nice 2.05 ERA in 41 appearances last season -- all but five out of the bullpen -- RHP Matt Strahm earned himself a shot at the Padres' rotation. And so far in 2019, Strahm has not disappointed, posing a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts. His record may be only 2-4 but you have to consider who he has had to face. Strahm's four losses have come against the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Yankees -- all teams with .490+ records -- and three of those four also came on the road (St. Louis, L.A., and New York). Since his first start at home (his first of the season -- a loss to Arizona), Strahm has had three subsequent starts here at Petco and he has allowed just five runs on 12 hits in 20 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and one walk issued. So he should be eager to face the team with the worst record in the League here this evening in the series finale. Heading into Sunday, the Marlins are just 14-44 in their last 58 road games and 2-6 in the last eight meetings with the Padres. Take San Diego.
|06-02-19||Cubs +100 v. Cardinals||Top||1-2||Loss||-100||9 h 16 m||Show|
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over St. Louis. The Cardinals' 37-year-old veteran RHP, Adam Wainwright, is entering the twilight of his career. And his 4-5 record, with a 4.94 ERA this season signals that his best days are surely behind him. Last month, Wainwright had five starts, and his ERA over those games was a nasty 6.33. One of them was against this Cubs team, and he gave up a season-high six run in five innings. That, along with the fact that his career ERA vs. Chicago is on the high side (for him) at 4.16, doesn't bode well for the Cardinals this afternoon. Take Chicago.
|06-01-19||Bruins v. Blues -114||Top||7-2||Loss||-114||3 h 10 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Boston Bruins. The Blues did what they needed to do on Wednesday and took a hard-fought, 3-2 overtime game in Boston to even The Stanley Cup Finals and take home ice advantage. The biggest difference for the Blues in Game 2 compared with Game 1 was that they completely took control and turned the tables on the Bruins in terms of the number of scoring opportunities. After being out-shot in Game 1 by a lopsided 38-20, the Blues returned the favor to Boston on Wednesday and fired 37 shots on goalie Tuukka Rask (including four in OT). And their defense held the Bruins to just 23 total shots on Jordan Binnington. Back home tonight, the Blues should be able to keep that momentum from Game 2 -- even with the extra day off. The Blues have dominated the top-level teams, of late, as they're 25-8 vs. foes that score 3+ goals a game, and are 17-5 their last 22 vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 0.3+ goals per game. Meanwhile, though it's had a good record overall the last few years, one of the categories Boston doesn't perform well in is when it plays with revenge. It's a poor 45-41 (minus 16 games on the money line) in that situation. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-01-19||Cubs +130 v. Cardinals||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||17 h 40 m||Show|
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. It's been an up-and-down first half for Cubs LHP Jose Quintana. The 30-year-old has looked like a world beater in one start and then turns around with a clunker in his next. The good news for tonight is that Quintana's teams have won six of his nine career starts against the Cardinals. In fact, Quintana just faced the Cards a little more than three weeks ago and threw six quality innings in a 13-5 blowout win. He'll hope for that same level of run support tonight as he takes the mound for his 11th start of the season -- this time at Busch Stadium. Despite their loss on Friday, the Cubs have been pretty dominant in this series lately, taking six of the last eight meetings. And Quintana will also be starting with an extra day of rest -- a situation in which he's excelled, as his teams are 23-12 in his last 35 starts with an extra day or two of rest. I look for Quintana to pitch very well today, as the Cardinals have struggled vs. lefties this season, batting just .239 against them so far (compared to .254 against RHP). RHP Jack Flaherty gets the start for St. Louis and his last two against the Cubs -- one this season and one at the end of 2018 -- were ugly (7 ER; 8H; 7BB in just 8 1/3 IP). Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|06-01-19||Tigers v. Braves -240||Top||5-10||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Detroit. Detroit won for just the fourth time in 16 games last night, but may have suffered a blow when 1B Miguel Cabrera had to leave the game in the 6th inning with left knee soreness. Cabrera will get an MRI today to determine his immediate playing status. He leads the team in RBI (22) and On Base Percentage (.356), so his absence (if it occurs) would be sorely missed. The Braves will hand the ball to Mike Soroka this afternoon. And all Soroka has done in 2019 is go 5-1 in his eight starts, with a 1.07 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's pitched between 5 2-3 and 8 innings in those eight games, and has yet to allow more than one earned run in any start. That bodes well for the Braves today, as Soroka's mound opponent -- Daniel Norris -- has allowed more than one earned run in six of his eight starts this season (4.15 ERA; 1.33 WHIP). The Tigers are a horrid 106-176 (minus 47 games on the money line vs. righties), and 13-38 (minus 12 games on the money line) when priced as a road underdog from +175 to +250. Likewise, they're 11-23 (minus 11 games on the money line) in Norris' last 34 starts. The Braves are a solid 10-3 as a favorite priced from -175 to -250, including a perfect 3-0 as a favorite of -200 or more. Take Atlanta to blow out Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-31-19||Marlins v. Padres -160||Top||2-5||Win||100||20 h 8 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Miami Marlins. After a solid rookie season at age 25, LHP Joey Lucchesi is putting up essentially the same numbers in his sophomore campaign that he did in 26 starts last season. But there are some encouraging signs that his numbers will get even better over the final four months. Lucchesi has reduced his walk rate from 3.0 to 2.3 and his HR rate is down as well. He gets start number 11 at home tonight and Lucchesi is a starter who really prefers pitching here (8-7 with a 3.63 career ERA vs. 3-5 and 4.94 on the road). It's true that Miami has won nine of 13 and just took a series against San Francisco. But the Giants are hapless, themselves, and are the only National League team other than Miami which has not won more than 40% of its games. The Padres come into this game off a 7-0 loss at the Yankees. However, that bodes well for the Padres, as they're 18-8 (+17 games on the money line) off a shutout loss. And the Padres are also a solid 6-1 in Luchessi's last seven starts when he was pitching with an extra day or two of rest. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-31-19||Astros -114 v. A's||Top||3-2||Win||100||20 h 4 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland A's. One of the main reasons the Astros don't feel compelled to reach back out to their former ace, Dallas Keuchel (who is still unsigned) is because of the performance of their starting pitching this season. As of this writing, Houston's starting pitching is third best in the AL (in terms of ERA). And #1 is Tampa which doesn't really count since the Rays use openers in roughly half of their games. One of the main success stories for Houston has been RHP Brad Peacock. Peacock is 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) and he's been probably the hottest starter in the league over his last four, allowing just a single run on 12 hits in 23 innings with 32 strikeouts and six walks. Not surprisingly, the Astros are 3-0 in those four starts. Peacock goes for Win #6 tonight in Oakland's pitcher-friendly Coliseum against the A's and RHP Mike Fiers. We'll go against the A's tonight, as Fiers' worst start this season came against the Astros back on April 7 when he allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Take Houston.
|05-31-19||Indians -165 v. White Sox||Top||1-6||Loss||-165||18 h 7 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox. Slow starts are nothing new for Indians' RHP Trevor Bauer. Last season, Bauer went 7-6 in the months of April, May and June, but proceeded to go 5-0 after that, including a 0.73 ERA in the month of August before an injury shut him down. This season, Bauer seems to be following suit as he is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 12 starts coming into tonight. This will be Bauer's first start of the season against the White Sox, and he is 8-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 19 games (17 starts) against them in his career. Perhaps even more important for tonight is the fact that Bauer is 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 10 games -- including nine starts -- here at US Cellular Field. The Sox may have won Game 1 of this series on Thursday by a 10-4 score, but the Indians are still 27-12 in the last 39 meetings. Chicago will go with RHP Dylan Covey and the ChiSox are 1-8 in his last nine home starts and 1-15 in his last 16 vs. AL Central teams. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-31-19||Royals v. Rangers -108||Top||2-6||Win||100||18 h 2 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Kansas City Royals. There have been some pretty good MLB pitchers who came out of Panama (Mariano Rivera comes to mind). Perhaps in a few years we will be adding RHP Ariel Jurado to the list. The 23-year-old was signed as an amateur free agent by the Rangers when he was just 16 years old. It didn't take long for Jurado to shine in the Minor Leagues either but Texas took its time with him and he made his MLB debut last season. His 2018 numbers certainly don't jump off the page, but so far 2019 has been a different story. In 11 games -- including two starts -- Jurado has a 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and he has dramatically increased his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate in the process. The Royals took a 4-2 victory on Thursday, but this series has been a challenge for them as KC is 7-21 in the last 28 meetings. And the Royals are also 15-39 in their last 54 road games. They will go with LHP Danny Duffy tonight and, although he's pitching well right now, KC is just 6-15 in his last 21 starts vs. teams with a .500 or better record. Take Texas.
|05-31-19||Red Sox -135 v. Yankees||Top||1-4||Loss||-135||17 h 4 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. In past seasons when it came to starters who were famous for home vs. road biases, it was names like Wandy Rodriguez who came to mind. And much more often than not, such pitchers had much more success at home than on the road. This season, we can add another pitcher to this list, and his name is J.A. Happ. But with respect to Happ, his advantage this season is when he pitches on the road. In five starts away from Yankee Stadium, Happ is 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Compare that to the 2-3 record and 5.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP that the veteran southpaw has in six starts here in the Bronx. Tonight, he will be taking the mound at his home park -- and against a very formidable opponent. Perhaps more surprising than Happ's poor home numbers is the 1-6 record of Red Sox ace LH Chris Sale. However, I'm convinced this won't continue, and I look for Sale to step up big tonight on the biggest of stages. For technical support, consider that Boston is 27-11 in Sale's last 38 after a quality start in his last appearance. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-30-19||Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors||Top||109-118||Loss||-101||19 h 33 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Toronto. The Warriors have dominated in Game 1 of a Playoff series. Dating back to 1994, they're 20-5 straight-up, and 16-8-1 ATS, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS on the road, and 19-1 straight-up and 12-8 ATS since 2014. It's true that Toronto won the two regular season meetings. But the Warriors are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +7.5 points. Golden State is also 5-0-1 ATS on the road in the Playoffs when playing with double-revenge. Finally, NBA home favorites (or PK) off a SU/ATS win are an awful 65-90 ATS vs. .693 (or better) foes. Take the Warriors in Game 1. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-30-19||Brewers -122 v. Pirates||Top||11-5||Win||100||17 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. While players like Christian Yelich and Josh Hader grab most of the headlines these days, there are some Brewers who are quietly having very good seasons. One of those is RHP Chase Anderson. Originally slated for the bullpen to start the season, injuries have given Anderson a shot at the rotation, and he has performed very well against some very tough competition. In four starts against the Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and Braves, Anderson is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in just under 18 innings. He'll get another shot tonight in Pittsburgh vs. a Pirate team against which he's had much success. In 14 starts vs. Pittsburgh, Anderson is 7-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 62 strikeouts in just over 72 innings. Those seven victories represent the most that Anderson has logged against any MLB team. The Pirates will go with RHP Joe Musgrove and Musgrove's teams are 5-16 (-10 games on the money line) in his last 21 starts as an underdog. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-29-19||Cubs -106 v. Astros||Top||2-1||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Houston. The Astros will once again play tonight's game without three of their key players (Jose Altuve (leg), George Springer (hamstring) and Carlos Correa (ribs)). Additionally, SS Aledmys Diaz (hamstring) and C Max Stassi (knee) hit the Injured List this week, so Houston's depth will be tested -- especially up the middle with Tony Kemp (2B) and Jack Mayfield (SS). Chicago's Kris Bryant missed his second straight game last night, but manager Joe Maddon said Bryant could return tonight. Chicago's 4-1 in Kyle Hendricks' last five starts, and his ERA over this stretch is a solid 1.96. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-29-19||Nationals v. Braves -165||Top||14-4||Loss||-165||1 h 54 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. The Braves took part in the Orioles' fire sale in the latter part of last season and picked up Kevin Gausman -- who regularly throws in the mid-to-high 90s -- for some minor leaguers and international bonus slot money. They figured the 27-year-old RHP could be a boost to their rotation and, after they acquired him, they were rewarded. Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts for the Braves last season. He hasn't repeated that so far in 2019, but there is no cause for concern as he is a notoriously slow starter. In fact after posting a 5.10 ERA over his first seven starts, Gausman has now had three quality starts in a row coming into tonight's outing against the Nationals. Washington will go with RHP Anibal Sanchez. It's unlikely it thought Sanchez would go 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA in his first nine starts when they signed him to a contract in December. But that is the reality they're faced with, and it's not likely to get better tonight. Atlanta is 8-2 in Gausman's last 10 home starts, while Gausman's WHIP at Home is 0.97. Meanwhile, Sanchez's Road WHIP is 1.84. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-29-19||Padres v. Yankees -130||Top||0-7||Win||100||5 h 11 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the San Diego Padres. The only good news that can come from a team's big free-agent starter going down in the first two months of the season is that the injury is not related to his arm. Such is the case with the Yankees and LHP James Paxton. Paxton will return today from a knee injury for his first start since May 3 (a game against the Twins in which Paxton exited after just three innings). The former Seattle Mariners' ace was having quite a campaign for his new team before he got hurt. His 12.4 strikeout rate is his career best and his 3.11 ERA is his second-best such number since his 2017 season (2.98). Paxton will go for victory number four today in his third career start vs. the Padres. San Diego's 2-6 in its last eight games in the Bronx. And the Padres are 5-22 in their last 27 inter-league road games vs. teams with a left-handed starter. Take New York.
|05-28-19||Diamondbacks +125 v. Rockies||Top||2-6||Loss||-100||19 h 60 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies. Successful 30-year-old rookies in the Majors are rare, but Merrill Kelly is looking to be the exception to that rule. The 30-year-old RHP was released by the Rays organization in 2014 and then spent the next four seasons in the South Korean league before being signed as a free agent by the Diamondbacks last December. And while nobody thinks that Kelly will win the Cy Young award, the veteran could be a solid #4/5 starter for a team which has been a pleasant surprise for much of the first half of the season. While there's nothing pretty about a 4-5 record with a 4.75 ERA, Kelly has had to face some pretty tough competition this season (Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, Rays). And tonight he is clearly the better of the two starters taking the mound. Colorado's Antonio Senzatela is 3-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in eight starts covering 42 innings. Despite their extra-innings loss on Memorial Day, the D-Backs are 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Rockies. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-28-19||Cubs +117 v. Astros||Top||6-9||Loss||-100||19 h 30 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Houston Astros. In what could be a preview of the World Series in October, the Cubs travel to Houston for an inter-league series against the Astros. The starting pitching match-up tonight will be a contrasting one. The Cubs' Jon Lester is a 35-year-old left-hander with 390 MLB games (389 starts) on his resume. Meanwhile, Houston's Corbin Martin is a 23-year-old right-handed rookie with a total of three games and 12 2/3 innings in the Majors under his belt. Martin won his first MLB start against the Rangers on May 12. Since then, he has gone 0-1 while allowing seven runs (five earned) on 11 hits in 7 1/3 innings in his subsequent two starts against the Red Sox and White Sox. So this will be Martin's first inter-league start -- something Lester (not surprisingly) has a lot of experience with. But Lester is not only experienced in inter-league play, he's also very successful at it. In 50 inter-league starts, Lester is 26-14 (.650) with a 3.19 ERA. The Cubs are 5-2 in the last seven meetings going back to October 2012. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-27-19||Blues +142 v. Bruins||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||112 h 44 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Boston Bruins. The Blues took command in the latter half of Game 6 on Tuesday and were able to clinch the series with the Sharks at home. It was a fitting end to a series that wasn't always kind to the team in blue and gold (St. Louis got screwed out of Game 3 by a missed call by the refs). So, the Blues will now play in their first Stanley Cup Final in almost 50 years, as their last appearance came in 1970 which was their third year in the league. In fact, the Blues hold the distinction of being the only professional sports team in the modern era to make it to its sport's championship series in each of its first three years of existence. The Bruins come into this Stanley Cup on a 7-game win streak. Unfortunately, Boston will have to deal with an extremely long layoff as, by the time the opening puck drops on Monday night, it will have been 11 days since its last game. So, any momentum it had will be long gone. The home team has not fared well in this series as the visitors are 11-7 in the last 18 meetings. And St. Louis is an awesome 60-36 (+17 games on the money line) vs. non-conference foes. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-27-19||Indians +177 v. Red Sox||Top||5-12||Loss||-100||14 h 6 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox come home today after a seven-game road trip to Toronto and Houston, but they won't get much of a break as they have to face a good Indians team. The Sox will go with RHP Rick Porcello who has been on a Bret Saberhagen-like good season/bad season run since 2014. 2018 was a good season, and so far the "up-down" pattern is holding in 2019 as Porcello is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 starts covering just under 57 innings. The Tribe will go with RHP Jefry Rodriguez who, despite a 1-4 record, is putting up significantly better numbers than he did in his rookie campaign. Rodriguez has a respectable 4.08 ERA (vs. 5.71 in 2018), 1.35 WHIP (vs. 1.54), and a 3.3 walk rate (vs. 6.4). The Indians are 10-5 in their last 15 vs. teams from the AL East and they are 6-2 in their last eight road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Cleveland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-26-19||Braves +137 v. Cardinals||Top||4-3||Win||137||16 h 18 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals. It seems like Julio Teheran has been in the league forever and yet the Braves' RHP is only 28 years old. So it's entirely possible that we still haven't seen the best of Teheran, who goes to the mound tonight in prime time to face the Cards in St. Louis. Teheran is having another solid campaign with a 3.67 ERA and 9.1 strikeout rate in 11 starts covering just over 61 innings. He also has performed well against the Cards in his career -- three victories with a 2.77 ERA in seven starts covering 39 innings. And in his last two starts against them, Teheran has tossed a total of 11 scoreless innings (only four hits) in a pair of Atlanta victories, out-scoring the Cards by a total of 16-3. This includes five shutout innings just 10 days ago at home in a 10-2 Braves win. The Braves are 12-5 (+9 games on the money line) in Teheran's last 17 starts as a road underdog of +100 to +150. Take Atlanta.
|05-26-19||Rangers +150 v. Angels||Top||6-7||Loss||-100||13 h 21 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Anaheim. The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth last night to come back to win, 3-2, over Texas. That victory ended a 5-game skid for the Angels, and also stopped a 5-game win streak for Texas. But I look for the Rangers to bounce back today, and take the rubber match of this 3-game series. The Angels are an awful 6-15 in their last 21 division games. And their starter this afternoon -- Andrew Heaney -- has had just one quality start in his last six starts vs. Texas (7.25 ERA; 1.80 WHIP). Take Texas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|05-26-19||Phillies v. Brewers -158||Top||1-9||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers just activated SP Jimmy Nelson from the IL and they have decided to keep him in the Minors for now with no discernible timetable for him to join the Brewers. It is a testament to the fact that the Crew's rotation has been doing so well that they are able to keep the pitcher who was just recently thought to be their best down on the farm for the foreseeable future. And there's no better example of that than today's starter, RHP Brandon Woodruff. In his third MLB season, Woodruff is having an All Star-worthy first half, going 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA in 10 starts. Four of those six victories are here at Miller Park where he has yet to lose this season (4-0 in six starts). In his last three starts, Woodruff is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 20 innings and the Brewers are 3-0 in those. The Phils will go with RHP Zach Eflin who had an ugly start against these Brewers just 10 days ago (four runs on seven hits in five innings in an 11-3 loss). The Brewers are 7-1 in Woodruff's last eight home starts. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-26-19||Rays v. Indians -101||Top||6-3||Loss||-101||1 h 51 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Storybook season of the Tampa Bay Rays continues. The Rays beat the Indians last night to extend their record to 30-19 and that's good for the fourth-best record in the American League. What makes the Rays run even more incredible is the number of injuries they have right now. No fewer than 10 of the Rays players are either out for the season, on the IL, or being held out as day-to-day. They will conclude their series with the Tribe this afternoon having to face one of Cleveland's best in Trevor Bauer. Bauer is off to a somewhat slow start, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA in his first 11 starts after winning 12 games with a 2.26 ERA in 2018. This will be his first start vs. Tampa this season. But the good news is that Bauer has a career 2.40 ERA in three career appearances against the Rays (two starts) covering 15 innings. Cleveland is 10-5 (+5 games on the money line) in Bauer's last 15 starts vs. AL East teams. Take the Tribe.
|05-25-19||Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors||Top||94-100||Loss||-110||41 h 51 m||Show|
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Toronto. We played on Milwaukee in Game 5. Unfortunately, Toronto upset the Bucks, 104-99, to take a 3-2 series lead. That was the first time this entire season that Milwaukee lost for the third straight time. Still, the Bucks are 47-25 ATS as an underdog off back to back losses. And they're 32-17 ATS off 3+ losses. Many bettors will find it difficult to back a team off 3 straight Playoff defeats. But since 1994, NBA underdogs off an upset loss, and 3 straight Playoff losses overall, have actually cashed 59%. We'll grab the points with Mike Budenholzer's crew in this 'must-win' game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-25-19||Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213.5||Top||94-100||Win||100||41 h 50 m||Show|
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Game 6 between Toronto and Milwaukee. The two teams combined for just 204 points in Game 5, which was the lowest aggregate total yet for the two teams in this Playoff series. And Game 5 was a full 18 points less than Game 4. As such, Game 5 went 'under' the total by 11.5 points! I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday night, as #1-seeded teams, off an upset home loss, and now facing elimination on the road, have gone 'under' the total 78% since 1990. Even better: NBA Finals and Conference Finals games have gone 'under' the total 61.7% of the time if the two teams combined to go 'under' the total in their previous game by at least 8 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-25-19||Rays +116 v. Indians||Top||6-2||Win||116||17 h 3 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Indians. You would have been hard-pressed to find anyone who thought that RHP Charlie Morton would have the kind of success in Tampa that he had in Houston after he signed a two-year contract with the Rays over the Winter. But Morton continues to surprise just about everyone -- except perhaps himself -- as he is having another stellar campaign at age 35. Over his first 10 starts in a Tampa uniform, Morton is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. And he is potentially on his way to his second straight All-Star appearance in July. Although this will be his first start as a Ray vs. the Indians, Morton faced them twice last season and he was dominant, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 13 innings. Despite the Indians' victory on Friday, they are only 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Rays going back to last September. The Rays are 5-1 in Morton's six road starts, as well as 5-1 their last six off a loss with Morton on the mound. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-25-19||Phillies v. Brewers -120||Top||7-2||Loss||-120||14 h 19 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Brewers OF Christian Yelich became the first Major League player to reach 20 home runs with a blast against the Phillies last night. Despite his milestone home run, his team blew a lead, and lost to the Phillies, 6-4. They'll try again this afternoon, with veteran RHP Jhoulys Chacin going to the hill for the 11th time this season. Although Chacin's overall numbers are nothing special (3-5 with a 4.65 ERA), he has recently pitched well here at Miller Park. In his last two home starts, Chacin has allowed two runs on five hits in 11 innings in Brewer victories over the Nats and Rockies. And the Brew Crew is 3-1 in Chacin's four home starts this season. Chacin has also done very well against the Phils in his career. In nine appearances against them -- including seven starts -- Chacin is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in just under 49 innings. The Crew is 81-39 (+27 games on the money line) in their last 120 games as a home favorite, while the Phils are 51-92 (minus 30 games on the money line) in their last 143 as an underdog of +150 or less. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-24-19||Diamondbacks -128 v. Giants||Top||18-2||Win||100||19 h 34 m||Show|
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. It was a less than a decade ago that the Cleveland Indians made Drew Pomeranz their first draft pick (2010). The highly-touted southpaw never pitched an MLB game in Cleveland as he was traded early on to the Rockies amid high expectations. And, except for one season in Boston (2017), those expectations have never been realized. Pomeranz's resume is a collection of injury-riddled campaigns with losing records and extremely inconsistent performances. Now he takes his act to San Francisco -- his fifth MLB stop. But the change of scenery hasn't helped as Pomeranz is 1-4 with an unsightly 5.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in eight starts coming into this start. Tonight could be more of the same as the 30-year-old is 0-3 with an ugly 7.76 ERA in nine appearances (six starts) vs. the D-Backs. Fellow LHP Robbie Ray will go for Arizona and the D-Backs are 7-3 in his last 10 road starts. Take Arizona.
|05-24-19||Red Sox v. Astros +125||Top||3-4||Win||125||16 h 29 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. A pair of veteran southpaws face off in Houston tonight as Chris Sale and Wade Miley go to the hill in Game 1 of this weekend series. And nobody would blame you if you thought that Sale had the better numbers coming into this evening. But it's Miley at 4-2 and 3.51 who has the bragging rights so far over Sale (1-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 starts). While Sale's overall numbers vs. the 'Stros are very good (5-2 with a 2.12 ERA in eight starts), since he's been with the Sox, he hasn't fared so well against them. In four starts against Houston in a Boston uniform -- including the post-season -- Sale is 0-2 with a 7.08 ERA (16 ER in 20 1/3 innings). In fact, Sale faced the 'Stros in his last start on May 19 and he lasted just 5 1/3 innings, and allowed three runs. The Sox are also 3-7 in Sale's last 10 starts, while Houston is 5-1 in Miley's last six. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-24-19||Phillies v. Brewers -125||Top||6-4||Loss||-125||9 h 11 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia. These two teams met a week-and-a-half ago, and Milwaukee took three of the four games in Philadelphia, including a 6-1 victory against Jerad Eickhoff, who will get the start tonight for the Phillies. Eickhoff has had very little success vs. the Brewers in his career, as he's gone 1-3 with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.50. And he's also had very little success away from home, as the Phillies are 11-24, minus 9 games on the money line, with him on the hill in road games. Eickhoff will face face Chase Anderson tonight. Anderson's made three starts this season, and his ERA in those three starts is 1.32 (including relief appearances, his ERA is 2.66). It's been very profitable to back Anderson at home in his career (40-27, +11 games on the money line) compared to on the road (26-43, minus 12 games on the money line). And the Brewers have also been dominant as a home favorite of -150 or less, as they're 64-30, +28 games on the money line. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-24-19||Dodgers -194 v. Pirates||Top||10-2||Win||100||3 h 20 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. For this game, we will only list the Dodgers' starter, Walker Buehler, and will have a play on Buehler and the Dodgers regardless of who starts for Pittsburgh. After a very short MLB stint as a reliever in 2017 (9 1/3 IP), Buehler burst on the scene last season as a second-year rookie for the Dodgers. He went 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 151 K's in 137 1/3 innings while finishing third in the NL ROY voting. And so far in 2019 -- after a bit of a slow start -- there doesn't appear to be much of a Sophomore slump for the now-24-year-old RHP. So far, Buehler is 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA. And although his strikeout rate is down a bit, he has considerably reduced his walks so that his K:BB ratio is actually higher than it was in 2018 (4.60 vs. 4.08). He'll go to the hill for the 10th time tonight and it will be his first career start against the Pirates. There's no question that Buehler loves his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, but the youngster has also pitched well on the road, including his last start when he shined in Cincinnati but received no run support. The Pirates are just 4-9 in their last 13 home games while the Dodgers are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings with them. Take L.A.
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks -7||Top||105-99||Loss||-106||41 h 12 m||Show|
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto. The Bucks and Raptors have traded two victories on their respective home courts, which bodes well for the Bucks on Thursday since they'll be back home. And, dating back to Giannis Antetokounmpo's rookie season, the Bucks are an exceptionally strong 40-13-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 100% Perfect, 9-0 ATS, off an upset loss. This season, Milwaukee not only owned the league's best record (60-22), but it also owned the league's best point spread record (47-31-4 ATS). In the Playoffs, Milwaukee has continued to win -- both straight-up (10-3) and ATS (10-3). Thus, it is now 57-34-4, 62.6% ATS on the season. In contrast, Toronto has burned money this season, with an ATS win percentage of just 47.4%. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-23-19||White Sox v. Astros -178||Top||4-0||Loss||-178||16 h 46 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Chicago White Sox. While most baseball people thought it would likely be Forrest Whitley or Josh James who would make the first impact as a rookie starter for the Astros this season, it looks like it will instead be the much less-heralded RHP Corbin Martin. Martin is a 2017 2nd round draft pick out of Texas A&M, who won his very first MLB start on May 12 against the Rangers with 5 1/3 strong innings. His "reward" for that was getting his second start at Fenway Park against the red-hot Red Sox. Although he didn't pitch badly, the 23-year-old wasn't able to get his second victory against a very good Boston line-up. He's back home tonight and will face an easier situation. And, with a very good offense behind him, the youngster should be able to get back into the Win column. Admittedly, the White Sox did win big here last night. But this has still been one of the most lopsided series in Baseball recently, as the Astros are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. Even worse for Chicago: its starter, RHP Lucas Giolito, is 0-3 in his career vs. Houston with a 7.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. And the Astros are an awesome 178-91 (+37 games on the money line) vs. righties. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-22-19||Royals v. Cardinals -173||Top||3-10||Win||100||2 h 47 m||Show|
At 7:45 pm, in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Kansas City. The Royals will hand the ball to RHP Homer Bailey tonight. And he's not made many friends "in Vegas" the past two seasons, as his teams have gone 5-24 in his starts. Even worse for the Royals: KC is a wallet-busting 21-46 (minus 15.5 games on the money line) when priced from +125 to +175. And it's a poor 7-18 in interleague games vs. teams from the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Cards are an awesome 150-81 (+27 games on the money line) as a favorite with Adam Wainwright on the mound. Take St. Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-22-19||Red Sox -145 v. Blue Jays||Top||6-5||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello is looking to break a good-year/bad-year streak that's been going on for him since the 2014 season, when he won 15 games with a 3.43 ERA. The year after that Porcello went 9-15 and 4.92, but followed that with his Cy Young, 22-win campaign. However, in 2017, he then had a league-leading 17 losses with a 4.65 ERA, but came back strong in 2018 to notch 17 wins, along with a 4.28 ERA. So far, in 2019, he is having an up-and-down season. But it's early still and Porcello has pitched very well in his last four starts (eight ER in 27 2/3 innings). He lost his last time out, but we'll give him a mulligan as that was against the best team in the League (Houston) -- and he still had a quality start (7 IP; 2 ER). He should have an easier time tonight against the Jays and oft-injured starter Aaron Sanchez. The veteran Jays RHP is healthy for now. But given his history (just 38 starts in 3 seasons), Sanchez could go back on the IL at any moment. Boston is a solid 22-9 in the last 31 meetings in Toronto. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-22-19||Royals v. Cardinals -167||Top||8-2||Loss||-167||1 h 19 m||Show|
At 1:15 pm, IN GAME 1 of the DOUBLE-HEADER, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Kansas City Royals. These two were supposed to play yesterday, but Mother Nature interfered, so they will now play a double-dip this afternoon and evening. Game 1 will feature RHPs Brad Keller (KC) and Michael Wacha (STL). Keller had a pretty successful rookie season in 2018, going 9-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 41 games (20 starts). Unfortunately, Keller is struggling so far in 2019, with a 2-5 record and 4.66 ERA in 10 starts. Keller's biggest problem has been control. In 58 innings, Keller has issued a league-leading 37 free-passes for a walk rate of 5.7. Yikes! You won't win games when you're walking nearly six batters every nine innings. Wacha is trying to follow up his successful -- if injury-riddled -- 2019 campaign, in which he went 8-2 with a 3.20 ERA in just 15 starts. Since this is a common inter-league match-up, Wacha has faced the Royals six times and he's gone 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just under 39 innings. KC is also a poor 2-8 in the last 10 meetings, while the Cards are 9-3 in Wacha's last 12 home starts. Take St. Louis.
|05-22-19||A's v. Indians +112||Top||7-2||Loss||-100||10 h 51 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland Athletics. Jefry Rodriguez was a mostly unknown rookie reliever/part-time-starter with the Washington Nationals last season. The 25-year-old RHP probably figured that his chances of being in a Major League rotation in 2019 were pretty slim, especially when the Nats made it clear they would go after a free-agent starter in the Winter. But then Rodriguez was shipped off to Cleveland in the Yan Gomes trade. And with the injuries the Tribe has sustained to its rotation, he now finds himself in the starting five. He has been mostly solid, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in five starts -- even if he's only totaled one victory so far. He'll take a shot at win #2 this afternoon at home, where he has a 3.20 ERA in three career starts. The Indians are a super 39-16 in their last 55 home games vs. teams with a road win percentage of .400 or less, and I look for them to bounce back off Tuesday's loss. Take Cleveland.
|05-21-19||Sharks v. Blues -150||Top||1-5||Win||100||39 h 20 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks. The Blues needed a win in San Jose on Sunday and they got it -- and in a big way. It all finally came together for the Blues in Game 5 as they put 40 shots on goal (while allowing just 21) and ran away with a 5-0 plastering which was the Sharks worst playoff shutout loss in their history. It would seem the only thing that can beat the Blues tonight is themselves as they must avoid a letdown at home after that huge road win. After falling behind 4-0 early in the third period on Sunday, the Sharks tried to lure the Blues into a physical game by taking a bunch of cheap shots at them, but St. Louis kept its cool and would have none of it. Now they have the Sharks and goalie Martin Jones on the ropes and the last thing they want to do is give them a chance to catch their breath and get back into this series. The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and the Blues are 17-7 in their last 24 games as a home favorite. Moreover, St Louis is now 23-7 its last 30 vs. opponents that average 3+ goals per game. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-21-19||Phillies v. Cubs -128||Top||2-3||Win||100||16 h 14 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies. Cubs LHP Jose Quintana had a sub-par outing his last time in Cincinnati, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up his third loss of the season. Perhaps his team needs to find a way to give the Columbian southpaw as many home starts the rest of the way as possible. And that's because Quintana has some of the most lopsided home-away stats in the Majors. When pitching here at Wrigley Field this season, Quintana is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in four starts covering just under 27 innings. In five road games (four starts) he is just 1-2 with an ugly 5.11 ERA in just under 25 innings. He's home tonight in an important game which could be a post-season preview, given how well both clubs are playing. Admittedly, he's never beaten the Phils (0-1 in four starts). But his two outings against them last season were very good (three ER on six hits in 11 2/3 IP with 17 K's and only three BBs). And most important is the fact that the Cubs are 22-7 in Quintana's last 29 home starts. Take Chicago.
|05-21-19||A's v. Indians -140||Top||5-3||Loss||-140||15 h 19 m||Show|
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland Athletics. There has been all kinds of talk this season about the injury-depleted Cleveland Indians and how they have been underachieving. And yet, there they are with a 25-21 record and certainly within easy distance of the first-place Twins. RHP Trevor Bauer isn't having quite the season he had last year (his walk rate is up and his K rate is down). But at 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA through 10 starts (with a league-leading 64 2/3 innings), Bauer has shown once again that he is a force in the league. He gets start number 11 tonight against the A's and young RHP Chris Bassitt. Although Bauer's splits at home aren't pretty this season, he has a career win percentage at Progressive Field of .611 (33-21) in 86 appearances (82 starts) there. And in his last two starts against the A's, Bauer has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 13 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and four walks. One of those was this season (May 11 in Oakland). Finally, Cleveland is 15-2 with Bauer on the hill at home vs. AL West division foes. Take the Tribe.
|05-20-19||Diamondbacks +135 v. Padres||Top||1-2||Loss||-100||17 h 23 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Diego Padres. A couple of very good young righthanders face off tonight at Petco Park. Chris Paddack is a 23 YO rookie who is developing into one of the best young control pitchers in the Majors. In all but one of Paddack's eight starts, he has walked only one batter. But his tendency to put pitches over the plate more than the average starter may be catching up to him. In his last start, he got knocked around pretty good, and allowed six runs on five hits (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings, while taking his second loss of the season. Paddack's mound opponent tonight will be Luke Weaver, who came to the D-Backs in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. And, so far, he is really enjoying his new team. Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA and a 9.6 K rate and 4.58 K:BB ratio in his nine starts. Also, in four career starts vs. the Padres, Weaver has a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just under 24 innings. And in his only previous start at Petco, he threw five shutout innings, to earn the victory. Finally, the D-Backs are 9-3 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 12 as a road underdog of +150 or less. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-20-19||Warriors v. Blazers +4||Top||119-117||Win||100||16 h 29 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State. The Warriors are up 3-games-to-none in this seven-game series, so they definitely have Portland on the ropes. But we'll fade Golden State tonight, as #1-seeded teams are a dreadful 0-9 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they're going for a sweep in a Playoff series, and priced from PK to -7.5 points. Even better: since 1990, the Trail Blazers are an awesome 90-52-2 ATS as home underdogs of less than 5 points, including 8-3 ATS in the Playoffs. Take Portland + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-19-19||Bucks v. Raptors -2||Top||112-118||Win||100||16 h 51 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Milwaukee. After covering the spread for all but the final 29 seconds in Game 1, the Raptors only covered the 6.5-point spread for 4 minutes and 11 seconds in Game 2, and were absolutely annihilated, 125-103. The good news for the Raptors is that this series now shifts to Toronto for Games 3 + 4. And they're 10-3 ATS their last 13 games off 3+ point spread defeats. Moreover, since 1991, NBA teams, seeded #5 or better, are 67-42 ATS off a road playoff loss by more than 21 points. But that's not the best part. If our team's win percentage is .640 (or better), and it lost its last two games, then our 67-42 stat zooms to 11-1, 92% ATS, since 2002. The Bucks last 3 games (all wins), were all at home. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, it's covered just eight out of its last 33 games off 3 home wins. Take Toronto minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-19-19||Pirates v. Padres -106||Top||6-4||Loss||-106||13 h 25 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cal Quantrill was the Padres' first round selection in the 2016 draft and it didn't take long for the RHP to make it to the Majors as Quantrill debuted at the beginning of this month. He will get his third start for the Pads this afternoon opposite Pittsburgh's RHP Joe Musgrove. With San Diego's pitching injuries, Quantrill should be able to stay in the rotation if he continues to perform well. Although he is still looking for his first MLB victory, Quantrill has a 3.60 ERA and eight strikeouts in 10 innings so far. Musgrove is 2-4 with a 3.59 ERA in nine games, including eight starts, but he is just 1-3 in six games on the road so far. Musgrove has been a pitcher of extremes lately. He threw seven shutout innings in his last start. But prior to that, Musgrove had two of the worst outings of his career, as he allowed 15 runs (13 earned) on 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in starts against the A's and Cards. The Bucs were out-scored in those two by 31-5. San Diego is 7-3 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with RH starters, while Pittsburgh is a poor 41-63 (minus 14 games on the money line) on the road when priced from +100 to +150. Take the Pads. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-19-19||Blues +120 v. Sharks||Top||5-0||Win||120||12 h 8 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks. Still stinging from a missed call in the overtime period of Game 3, the Blues came out in Game 4 and did what they had to do. Now they come back to San Jose for Game 5 with the series all knotted up. And they come back to the SAP Center knowing that the last time they were here, they pulled an upset in Game 2, and beat the Sharks, 4-2. Rookie Goalie Jordan Binnington was back on his game on Friday night, stopping all but one of the 30 shots he faced (.967). And in that second game here last Monday, he had a similar effort. For their third game in a row, the Blues kept their penalties to a minimum (under 10 minutes) after letting the Sharks bait them in Game 1, which resulted in their worst loss of the playoffs. The Blues don't mind at all being the underdog, as they are 6-2 in their last eight in this situation. Additionally, they're an awesome 22-7 their last 29 when playing an opponent which averages 3+ goals a game. Finally, San Jose is a poor 24-30 (minus 19 games on the money line) when playing with revenge from a 1-goal defeat. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-19-19||Astros v. Red Sox -153||Top||3-4||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Houston Astros. How do you throw seven strong innings against an inferior opponent, allowing just two runs while striking out an absurd 17 batters and still not get a win? You can ask Chris Sale how (as that is exactly what he did in his last start), but it's unlikely he would have an answer for you. After that incredible performance against the Rockies (Sale also did not walk a single batter), his record is still a shocking 1-5 on the season. He will try to have better fortune this afternoon against Houston, which owns the best record in Baseball. The good news for Sale today is that the veteran southpaw has done very well against the Astros in his career, going 5-2 with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in seven starts. The 'Stros will go with LHP Wade Miley, who has has done well in his first season in Houston. But the veteran has an ugly 7.13 ERA in four career starts vs. the Sox. Boston is also 9-2 in Sale's last 11 following a quality start by Sale his last time out. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-18-19||Pirates v. Padres -141||Top||7-2||Loss||-141||6 h 55 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Pittsburgh. This game will match-up two rookie hurlers. The Pirates will hand the ball to Montana DuRapau, a reliever who will be making his first Major League start, while San Diego will start LHP Nick Margevicius. Pittsburgh has struggled vs. southpaw starters over the last few years. This season, the Buccos are a poor 5-8 vs. lefties. And over the last three years, they're a wallet-busting 43-59 (minus 13 games on the money line). That doesn't bode well for them tonight. Nor does the fact that Pittsburgh is a dreadful 27-53 (minus 28 games on the money line) vs. National League West division clubs. The Pirates won last night, 5-3, but they're just 2-5 this season as road underdogs off a win. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-18-19||Brewers +113 v. Braves||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||16 h 47 m||Show|
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. After pounding the Phillies on the road on Thursday, 11-3, the Crew was embarrassed in Game 1 of this series in Atlanta on Friday. The Brewers' rotation is in a bit of flux at the moment, so having a guy like veteran RHP Chase Anderson, who can fill in and do a more-than-credible job is very important. After five appearances out of the bullpen to start 2019, Anderson has made a pair of starts and did little wrong. He currently stands at 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA. And that's more than enough to earn him his third start tonight as he returns from the IL due to an injured finger, while the Crew awaits the returns of Brent Suter and Jimmie Nelson. Don't be surprised if the Brewers come back tonight with a similar effort to the one they had against the Phillies as they are 11-3 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 14 vs. teams from the NL East. The Braves will counter with RHP Kevin Gausman, who threw six strong innings and got the win in his last start. But they are 0-4 in Gausman's last four after a quality start in his last. Take Milwaukee.
|05-18-19||Cardinals -117 v. Rangers||Top||8-2||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Texas Rangers. This afternoon will be 24-year-old Dakota Hudson's first-ever MLB inter-league start. And it's fitting since Hudson was an 18-year-old High School student in 2013 when he was drafted in June of that year by the Texas Rangers. He decided to forego professional baseball at that time and instead enrolled at Mississippi State University (and then was selected in a later draft by St. Louis). Now, Hudson gets to face the team that initially selected him in the 36th round almost six years ago. Certainly, Hudson is a work in progress. But the talent is there. And nobody would be surprised if, by the second half of the season, the youngster was a solid #3 starter. Despite the Rangers' win on Friday, the road team is still 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two. And Texas is just 3-6 in its last nine home inter-league games. Take the Cardinals.
|05-18-19||Rays -119 v. Yankees||Top||2-1||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees. We played against Tampa LHP Blake Snell in his last start, six days ago (also against the Yankees and RHP Masahiro Tanaka), and got the cash with New York as an underdog of +152. But we'll switch gears and take Snell and the Rays in the rematch. Tampa is a super 25-11 (+14 games on the money line) with Snell on the mound when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. And the Rays are 12-5 this season as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Yankees have not been profitable as a home underdog over the last three seasons, and they're also dismal as an underdog (whether home or road) priced from +100 to +150 the past three years (21-36, minus 11 games on the money line). Take Tampa Bay.
|05-17-19||Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||103-125||Loss||-103||17 h 56 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee. The Raptors fell by eight points in Game 1, as a 6.5-point underdog. And the worst part of the game for Toronto backers was that they covered the point spread for all but the final 29 seconds of the game. Tonight, we'll grab the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co., as I look for Toronto to even up the series at 1 game apiece. Indeed, over the last 29 years, .663 (or better) teams off exactly one loss, and down exactly one game in a Playoff series, have cashed 66.3% when not favored by 3+ points. Even better: the Raptors are 5-0 ATS on the road this season after a loss by more than six points, and #1-seeded teams (like Milwaukee) are a poor 40% ATS in a Playoff series as a home favorite when up 1-game-to-none. Take the Raptors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-17-19||Sharks v. Blues -137||Top||1-2||Win||100||17 h 36 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks. The Blues were one minute away from taking a 2-1 lead in this series when they had a defensive letdown. San Jose tied up Game 3 on a Logan Couture tip-in, and then later took advantage of a missed call in overtime (a hand pass which led to the game-winner), so now the Sharks are the ones with a 2-1 advantage. Watching the Blues as they left the ice -- in what can only be described as a controlled rage -- one can't help but think that what happened here on Wednesday night will only serve as motivation for the home team in Game 4. It might not be a "must-win" situation, but it's close to it, as this series will go back to San Jose for Game 5. Thus, a loss tonight would create a huge hole for St. Louis. The Blues are going to do everything they can, of course, to ensure that doesn't happen. Despite their very tough loss in Game 3, the Blues are still 16-7 in their last 23 as a home favorite, and 27-16 off a loss. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a horrid 0-5 this season when leading in a Playoff series, Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-17-19||Cardinals -168 v. Rangers||Top||3-7||Loss||-168||10 h 4 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Texas Rangers. After a three-year break from the Majors, RHP Miles Mikolas burst on the scene last year with the Cardinals, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts and earning an All-Star nod in the process. Much of his success can be attributed to his 1.3 walk rate which led the league last season. This year, Mikolas isn't off to quite the start he had in 2018, but he's starting to heat up recently. And his 1.7 walk rate is still among the best in the Majors. Check out Mikolas' numbers in his last three starts: 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 20 innings. Mikolas is near-perfect in his career in inter-league starts, going 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA in six appearances (four starts) covering just under 29 innings. And the Cards' lineup will get the added benefit of a designated hitter in this weekend series, in Arlington, against the Rangers. The Cardinals also love it when Mikolas starts on the road as they are 14-3 in his last 17 away from Busch Stadium. Finally, the Rangers are 2-6 in their last eight inter-league home games. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-17-19||Cubs +140 v. Nationals||Top||14-6||Win||140||16 h 32 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals. One starter in this game is 3-0 with a 3.08 ERA and the other is 2-4 with a 3.64 number. Can you guess which one is Max Scherzer? If you said it was the undefeated one, you'd be wrong. LHP Cole Hamels has done little wrong for the Cubs this season, while Scherzer has been the recipient of some of the worst luck of any starter in the league. But the simple fact is that Hamels' team -- mainly the offensive lineup of the Cubs -- has performed much better than the Nats so far this season. And there's no team in the Majors which Hamels has had more success against than Washington. In 37 starts vs. the Nats, the veteran southpaw is 16-9 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in just under 246 innings. And here are some additional stats that point toward the Cubs tonight: the Nats are 1-5 in Scherzer's last six starts, 0-5 in his last five home starts, and 1-7 in their last eight games vs. teams from the NL Central. Meanwhile the Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a losing home record. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-16-19||Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors||Top||111-114||Win||100||18 h 34 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State. The Blazers were routed by 22 points in Game 1, 116-94, but I love them to bounce back in Oakland tonight. Indeed, road teams off a loss by more than 21 points have cashed 92% in the semi-finals and finals of the NBA Playoffs since 1991, when priced from +2.5 to +7.5 points. Even better: the Trail Blazers are an awesome 11-1 ATS the past two years when playing with revenge from a double-digit road loss. Finally, the Warriors are a wallet-busting 10-26-1 ATS in games with single-digit point spreads, if the Warriors were off 3+ wins. Grab the points with Portland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-16-19||Bruins v. Hurricanes +100||Top||4-0||Loss||-100||6 h 32 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over Boston. Coach Rod Brind'Amour confirmed today that Curtis McElhinney will get the start at goalie tonight. And McElhinney has performed admirably in his back-up role this season. He was 20-11-2 with a .912 save percentage in the regular season. And then, in this year's Playoffs, he has been even better. He's allowed just six goals on 106 shots (.943 save percentage). Yes, Carolina lost Game 3 here, at home. But PNC Arena is still one of the most difficult arenas in the league for a road team to go into and win. Indeed, the Hurricanes are 5-1 at home in this year's Playoffs, and are 7-1 their last eight at home, dating back to the regular season. Carolina is also 12-5 this year off a home defeat. Finally, this is the best price Carolina has been given at home by the oddsmakers since they were even money vs. Calgary back on February 3rd. Since then, the Hurricanes were favored in 20 straight games (between -115 and -360). Certainly, the reason for the odds shift is the fact that they're down 3-0 in the series. But the Hurricanes are a solid 9-4 in "elimination" games in the Playoff, while Boston's a poor 14-20 (minus 14 games on the money line) when attempting to close out a playoff series. Take the Hurricanes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|05-16-19||Cardinals +100 v. Braves||Top||2-10||Loss||-100||16 h 50 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves. In the world of MLB starters, there has been no bigger enigma over the past several years than that of Braves RHP Julio Teheran. Seemingly armed with as much raw talent as any starter in the league, nobody would have been surprised if the 28-year-old had won a Cy Young award by now. But we are almost a decade into his MLB career and Teheran's overall numbers look extremely average (a .511 winning percentage, with a 3.67 ERA, and just two All Star appearances). Although he's right in the middle of his prime, Teheran is having another very average campaign so far this season with a 2-4 record and 4.26 ERA in a league-leading nine starts. And, to make matters worse for him, the new home of the Braves -- SunTrust Park -- has not been to Teheran's liking as he is 8-14 with a 4.73 ERA in 37 starts covering just over 109 innings there. As good as the Braves have been recently, this has still been a lopsided series here in Atlanta, with the Cards taking nine of the last 11 meetings here. St. Louis' starter, Adam Wainwright, gave up just 1 run over 7 innings in his last start. And the Cards have gone 75-38 behind Wainwright following a start in which he gave up less than two earned runs. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|05-16-19||Cubs +118 v. Reds||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||15 h 10 m||Show|
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. With a 4-1 record, 1.76 ERA, and 32 hits allowed (with 70 strikeouts) in 56 1/3 innings, there is already talk about Reds' RHP Luis Castillo being an early favorite for the NL Cy Young. An All Star selection may seem inevitable -- barring injury -- but before we anoint him as the next Tom Seaver, let's consider a couple of other things about his numbers. For one thing, Castillo's walk rate this season is 3.8, which is very high for an ace and the worst of his three seasons in the league (at least so far). In his last start, Castillo struck out 11 in six innings, but he also walked five. And both of Castillo's starts this month have come against the Giants -- one of the most anemic offenses in the Majors. This will be his first start of the season against the Cubs, a team which figures to pose a lot more offensive challenges than did the Giants. The Cubs will go with RHP Jose Quintana and they are 5-1 in his last six starts and 18-7 in his last 25 following a team loss in their previous game. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.