|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-20-19||76ers v. Nets +1.5||Top||112-108||Loss||-104||11 h 11 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia. The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly. We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points. Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses. Take Brooklyn.
|04-19-19||Blazers v. Thunder -7.5||Top||108-120||Win||100||16 h 4 m||Show|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland. The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3. We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991. Take Oklahoma City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-19-19||Celtics v. Pacers -3||Top||104-96||Loss||-103||15 h 60 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston. The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads. Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series. The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.
|04-18-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5||Top||108-118||Win||100||17 h 29 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver. We played on the Nuggets in Game 2, and got the $$$ when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in the 2nd half for a nine-point comeback victory. One of the reasons played against San Antonio was its god-awful record on the road when installed as an underdog of more than 4 points (now 1-30 straight-up since May 2017). However, at home, the Spurs have dominated, with a 43-10 SU record (34-19 ATS). And Gregg Popovich's men have been especially strong when playing with revenge. Dating back to March 2018, the Spurs are 22-3 straight-up and 21-4 ATS in this role! Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Jazz +6.5 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-103||15 h 6 m||Show|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston. The 4th-seeded Rockets blew out Utah 122-90 in Game 1 behind 29 points from James Harden. Unfortunately for Houston, NBA #4 seeds are a money-burning 0-19 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes in the first round of the Playoffs, as favorites of more than 3 points, if they were off a SU/ATS win. Even worse for Houston: Utah's 17-8 ATS as a road underdog off a double-digit Playoff loss, while Houston has covered just 9 of 32 games as a home favorite after a double-digit home win in its previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Pistons +15 v. Bucks||Top||99-120||Loss||-100||14 h 37 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee. Virtually everything went right for Mike Budenholzer's men in Game 1. They sprinted out to a 38-18 lead after the first quarter, en route to a 35-point victory. Milwaukee, of course, was aided by the fact that the Pistons' Blake Griffin was sidelined with a knee injury. Griffin has been ruled out for the remainder of this series, as well, and his absence has been accounted for in the game 2 point spread. We'll take the underdog in tonight's game, as teams off Playoff blowout wins by 35+ points have been atrocious (22% ATS the past 29 years) in their next game. Take the Pistons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs did something very much out of character in Game 1: they pulled a big upset on the road, as a 5.5-point underdog. Indeed, the Spurs road win percentage this season is .404. And over the last two seasons, going into this series, they were 0-27 straight up, and 7-19-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than four points! Unfortunately for the Spurs, they're likely to revert to form tonight. And that's because, since April 28, 1991, NBA road teams, with a road win percentage less than .405, have covered just 33% in the Playoffs following an upset road win. Take Denver to slaughter San Antone. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Magic v. Raptors -9.5||Top||82-111||Win||100||16 h 34 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Orlando. The Raptors lost at home in Game 1, 104-101, to the Magic. And they were favored by 9.5 points in that game. The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that favorites of more than 9 points, off a game where they lost outright, and also failed to cover the spread by more than 9 points, are 30-0 straight-up, and 22-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs. Take Toronto to blow out Orlando. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors||Top||135-131||Win||100||18 h 46 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State. The Warriors routed L.A. in Game 1, 121-104. But off that blowout win, we'll fade the defending Champs on this Monday. Indeed, double-digit home favorites off SU/ATS home playoff wins by 10+ points have covered just 36% since 1991. That doesn't bode well for Golden State tonight. And neither does the fact that the Clippers are 45-37-1 ATS this season, compared to just 36-46-1 ATS for Golden State. The Clippers are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 road games when playing with revenge. And #1 seeds (like the Warriors) are an awful 48-73-6 ATS as a favorite after winning Game 1 of a playoff series. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||Top||123-145||Win||100||15 h 5 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Brooklyn. The Sixers were stunned, 111-102, in Game 1 of this series, here at home. But I love Philly to bounce back today, as home favorites of -7+ points, off a straight-up loss in the Playoffs (and ATS loss) by 7+ points each, have cashed 62.3% in conference games since 1991! Moreover, the Sixers are 43-29 ATS their last 72 at home, including 18-8 ATS off an ATS defeat by more than four points. Take Philadelphia to blow out Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Thunder v. Blazers -3||Top||99-104||Win||100||35 h 29 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder swept the season series, 4-0, from Portland this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Portland because of that fact. However, road teams (like Oklahoma City) have gone 0-8 SU/ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of a Playoff series if they weren't getting 10+ points, and they swept the regular season series! That doesn't bode well for the Thunder. Even worse: Oklahoma City is a horrid 1-13 straight-up and 2-12 ATS on the road in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 0-8 SU/ATS in the first two rounds. Finally, Portland falls into a super 120-62 ATS revenge system of mine. Take the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-13-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -5||Top||101-96||Loss||-115||43 h 6 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs have certainly been a great Playoff team over the years. But they've really struggled as underdogs of +5 (or more) points when matched up against a top 2-seeded opponent. Since 2001, they've gone just 3-21 straight-up and 7-17 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if the Spurs were not off a SU/ATS win. That doesn't bode well for San Antonio on Saturday night. And neither does the fact that San Antonio is an awful 0-4 straight-up the past two seasons at Denver, with its average margin of defeat being 10.5 points. The Nuggets have not held home court advantage in a Playoff series very often. Indeed, over the last 28 years, they've only been in that position in four series. But in those four series, they won that first (home) game all four times, and by an average of 14.5 points per game. When these two teams last met (just 10 days ago), the Spurs were destroyed by Denver, 113-85. And teams playing with revenge from a loss in the regular season by 15+ points have covered just 42 of 106 Playoff games. The biggest problem for San Antonio in this series will be the Nuggets' All-Star center, Nikola Jokic. In the last three games played between these two teams, Jokic has gone 10-14, 10-14 and 9-10 from the field, and also pulled down 10 rebounds per game. Jokic will prove to be too much for the Spurs to handle. Take Denver minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Jazz v. Clippers -6||Top||137-143||Push||0||12 h 22 m||Show|
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Utah. The Jazz won their final home game of the season yesterday when the defeated Denver. Meanwhile, the Clippers had the last 2 nights off following their 27-point loss at Golden State, so they'll be very well rested for this game. Los Angeles needs to win, and also have either San Antonio or Oklahoma City lose, in order to avoid the 8th seed. Unfortunately, both the Spurs and Thunder are favored to win their games tonight (both early starts), so the Clippers could very well have their fate sealed by the time this late night game begins. Regardless, I expect a strong effort, as they'll enter tonight's play on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will no doubt want to get back into the win column prior to the start of the Playoffs. Los Angeles is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven (and 13-3 ATS its last 16) games off a road defeat. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Heat v. Nets -3.5||Top||94-113||Win||100||14 h 41 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami. The Heat had an emotional game last night, at home, when they defeated Philly, 122-99, in Dwyane Wade's final home game. Tonight, they have to take on the Playoff-bound Nets, who come into this season finale off back to back upset wins over Milwaukee and Indiana. Since 1990, home teams have cashed 71% in their final game of the season, if they were off back to back upset wins. Take Brooklyn minus the points.
|04-10-19||Warriors v. Grizzlies +6||Top||117-132||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State. The Warriors come into this final game of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up. So, this game will hold little meaning to Steve Kerr's crew. Not surprisingly, since 1990, #1-seeded Playoff teams have covered just 35.7% of their final games of the regular season, if they were on the road. Take Memphis + the points.
|04-10-19||Mavs v. Spurs -13||Top||94-105||Loss||-109||10 h 53 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas. This game is critical for the Spurs. If they win, they'll avoid the Warriors in the 1st round of the Playoffs. San Antonio also will play this game with a big advantage in terms of their days of rest. The Spurs have had the last two days off, while Dallas had to play last night. San Antonio is 96-58 ATS its last 154 vs. unrested foes. Lay the points with San Antonio.
|04-10-19||Magic v. Hornets -2||Top||122-114||Loss||-109||10 h 52 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over Orlando. The Hornets will likely miss the Playoffs, as they need to defeat Orlando and also need the NY Knicks to upset Detroit in order to qualify for the post-season. But anything's possible, so Charlotte will certainly put forth its best effort tonight. The Hornets didn't put forth their best effort when these two teams last met on Valentine's Day. The Magic won that game, 127-89. But Charlotte had won the previous 13 games in this series (11-2 ATS) and I look for them to avenge that 38-point loss tonight. Indeed, underdogs off a SU/ATS win (like Orlando), which defeated their opponent by 30+ points in the previous meeting, are a soft 28-53-1 ATS since 1990. Take Charlotte.
|04-09-19||Suns v. Mavs -8||Top||109-120||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Phoenix. We played against the Suns on Sunday, as we had our NBA Game of the Month on Houston. And the Rockets blew out Phoenix by 36 points. We will go against Phoenix again, tonight, as Dallas will be playing its final home game of the season (and possibly the final home game of Dirk Nowitzki's storied career). The Mavericks are still playing hard (they won a road game at Memphis, on Sunday), and fall into an 86-42 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine (which Houston, coincidentally, also fell into when they played Phoenix on Sunday). Lay the points with Dallas.
|04-09-19||Knicks v. Bulls -1.5||Top||96-86||Loss||-109||5 h 56 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over New York. The Knicks upset the Wizards, 113-110, in their previous game. But New York is still just 16-64 on the season, and has only won back-to-back games three times. I love playing against really bad teams off wins. And I won't make an exception here, as this also is New York's final road game of the season. And they're playing a revenge-minded Bulls team they defeated just eight days ago. New York is a poor 2-10 ATS this season in "win situation" games, where the line is 3 points or less. And Chicago's 9-4 ATS its last 13 "Last Home Games." Take the Bulls minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-09-19||Celtics v. Wizards -4.5||Top||116-110||Loss||-108||4 h 55 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston. This is the final game of the season for both teams. And the Celtics look to be mailing this game in. Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford all will be in street clothes. Washington plays with revenge from an 11-point defeat to the Celtics, in Boston, last month. And Washington is 17-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge. Additionally, Boston falls into a negative 32-68 ATS "Late season" system of mine which fades certain teams on the road at the end of the year. Take Washington.
|04-07-19||Magic v. Celtics -5||Top||116-108||Loss||-105||13 h 50 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Orlando. Boston played its best game in a month in its last time out, with a 20-point win at Indiana. The Celtics have now won 3 in a row, and need to win at least one more game to wrap up home court advantage in the first round. Tonight, they'll take on an Orlando Magic team which narrowly defeated the Celtics by two points in the last meeting. Boston is 9-0 ATS when playing with revenge, if the Celtics covered their previous game by 7+ points. And Boston's also 19-5-1 ATS at home off 3+ wins, including 10-0 ATS its last 10 if it covered its two previous games. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Suns v. Rockets -18||Top||113-149||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Phoenix. The Rockets are still in the hunt for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they're currently just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets. And Houston's been taking no prisoners lately, as they're on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak. They've won those five games by 27, 11, 25, 32 and 24 points. Tonight, they'll take on a short-handed Phoenix club which will be without its best player, Devin Booker. And, regardless of who has been on the court, the Suns haven't been able to defeat Houston in any of the last 10 meetings. For the season, the Suns are giving up 116.4 ppg. And Houston's dominated opponents that have a defensive ppg average of 116+, as it's cashed 69.5%. Finally, this is Houston's last home game of the season, and the Rockets fall into a 52-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams in their final game in front of their home faithful. Meanwhile, the Suns fall into a negative 22-59 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams late in the season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Thunder -6.5 v. Wolves||Top||132-126||Loss||-107||9 h 47 m||Show|
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Minnesota. The Thunder are currently in the 7th slot in the Western Conference, but need to win their two final games, or they could easily fall to the 8th seed (and have to play Golden State). This is a revenge game for OKC, which was upset by Minnesota when the two teams met last month. That bodes well for OKC, as the Thunder are 54-35 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Even better: the T-Wolves come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Dallas and Miami. But those two victories have triggered a negative 104-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upsets. Take the Thunder.
|04-07-19||Spurs -8.5 v. Cavs||Top||112-90||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland. The Spurs are battling OKC and the LA Clippers for the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds out West, as none of those teams wants to finish 8th and draw the Warriors in the 1st Round. We played on San Antonio in its last game, and were rewarded with a 129-112 blowout of the Wizards. We'll come right back with San Antone this afternoon, as the Spurs are 73-42 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes not off an ATS defeat. With Cleveland in off a point spread win at Golden State on Friday, we'll lay the points with the Spurs.
|04-06-19||Auburn v. Virginia -5||Top||62-63||Loss||-115||31 h 2 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Auburn. The 5th-seeded Tigers are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 12 straight wins, including back to back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds. But this is the point where Cinderella generally gets her glass slipper smashed. Indeed, in the NCAA Tournament, teams seeded #5 (or worse), and installed as an underdog of +6 or less points, are 0-7 SU/ATS in the semi-final round since 1990. And, since 1995, underdogs off back-to-back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds are a poor 0-11 straight-up, and 2-9 ATS in the NCAA Semi-Finals. Finally, #1-seeded ACC Conference teams have gone 14-3 straight-up and 13-4 ATS since 2000 in the NCAA Tourney's Final Four. Virginia will blow out Auburn. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-05-19||Grizzlies v. Mavs -4.5||Top||122-112||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Memphis. This is the first of two back-to-back games played by these teams (they'll meet in Memphis on Sunday). Dallas comes into tonight's game off an upset home loss to Minnesota. And they also play with revenge from two losses to the Grizzlies earlier this season. We'll lay the points with Dallas, as home favorites have cashed 64.7% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge against a division rival, if our home team is also off an upset home loss. Take the Mavericks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-05-19||Spurs -6 v. Wizards||Top||129-112||Win||100||17 h 33 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Washington. San Antone is locked into a tight battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 7th spot out West. If the Spurs are to catch the Thunder (they're currently one game behind), then a win tonight is critical. San Antonio does come into tonight's game off five straight point spread losses. But the Spurs are 38-20 ATS as road favorites of -10 or less points off 3+ ATS defeats. Take San Antonio.
|04-05-19||Hawks v. Magic -8.5||Top||113-149||Win||100||17 h 33 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks are one of four Eastern Conference teams battling for the last three Playoff spots. Currently, Orlando, Miami and Brooklyn all have 40 losses, while Detroit has 39. Thus, tonight's home game vs. Atlanta is huge for Orlando. The Magic have been dominant at home, as they currently have won eight straight in front of the home faithful (6-2 ATS), including a 7-point win over Golden State, and a double-digit win over these Hawks. Orlando's 20-12-1 ATS its last 33 at home, and should be fired-up tonight as it will be its final home game of the season. The Hawks have been awful on the road when playing an opponent in its final home game (4-22 straight-up; 6-17-3 ATS). Take Orlando.
|04-05-19||South Florida +1.5 v. DePaul||Top||77-65||Win||100||16 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over DePaul. The Bulls have covered four straight heading into tonight's game at McGrath-Phillips Arena. The first two games in this series went down to the wire. South Florida outlasted DePaul, 63-61, on Monday at Yuengling Center, in Tampa. Then, on Wednesday, the Blue Demons evened up the series with a 4-point overtime win, here in Chicago. South Florida, though, covered the closing line of +4.5 (it did open at +3.5, however). Given the closeness of this series, it's hard to turn down points with the Bulls. After all, besides its current 4-game ATS win streak, the Bulls have gone 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Blue Demons. Take South Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-04-19||Lipscomb v. Texas -1||Top||66-81||Win||100||17 h 12 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Lipscomb. The #5-seeded Bison have been underdogs (or PK) every step of the way in this NIT Tournament. And they've been installed as a dog, yet again, in this Championship game. By my numbers, though, they should be getting 1.5 more points, so the value rests on the side of the Longhorns. Even worse for Lipscomb: underdogs have been awful in the NIT Tournament off 3 straight wins as an underdog (or PK), as they've gone 1-6 ATS in that role. And teams seeded#5 (or worse) are 0-6-1 ATS in the NIT Final Four if they're matched up against a higher-seeded opponent (here, Texas is seeded 2nd). Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have gone 12-3 ATS in the NIT Tournament, at the quarter-final round forward, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when not favored by 4+ points. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-03-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -5||Top||85-113||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio. This is one of the few games left on the NBA schedule where both teams will be well-motivated to win. San Antonio is in a tight battle with Oklahoma City for the 7th seed, while Denver desperately wants to hang on to the #2 seed. The home court has been the decisive factor in this series, as the home team has now won nine straight times, including San Antonio's 104-103 victory in the Alamo City on March 4. The Spurs have also mightily struggled when playing revenge-minded Western Conference teams, and especially if their opponent owned a W/L percentage greater than .440. Over the last two years, San Antonio is 5-18 straight-up and 6-17 ATS, including 0-9 SU/ATS in the regular season when getting more than 4 points. Take Denver to blow out the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-03-19||South Florida v. DePaul -5.5||Top||96-100||Loss||-108||17 h 54 m||Show|
At 8 pm, on Wednesday, in Game 2 of the Best-of-3 Championship series of the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over South Florida. These two schools have a long history against one another, as they were member schools in Conference USA together, and also member schools of the Big East Conference together. Currently, South Florida is an American Athletic Conference member, so this series was the first time the schools had met since March 2013. Lately, South Florida has had the upper hand, with nine straight wins (8-0-1 ATS). But since 1996, the series has been pretty evenly played, with the Bulls holding a 13-11 record (12-11-1 ATS). The key factor for tonight's game is that the Bulls have been dreadful in the post-season when they've had to play on an opponent's home court. They've gone 0-8 straight-up and 1-6-1 ATS (with their only ATS win by a single point). And, yes, it's true that South Florida is 2-0-1 ATS its last three games, while DePaul is 0-2-1 ATS in its last three. But in post-season tournaments, home teams not off an ATS win in either of their two previous games, have covered 63.1% if they weren't favored by more than 7 points against a foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in either of its two previous games. Take the Blue Demons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Texas +1.5 v. TCU||Top||58-44||Win||100||17 h 28 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over TCU. Both of these teams come into this NIT Semi-Final off 13-point wins. Texas defeated Creighton, 71-58, while TCU bested Colorado, 68-55. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are both Big 12 Conference members, of course. And the two teams met twice earlier this season, with TCU coming out on top in both games. However, Texas now falls into several revenge systems of mine, with records of 35-12, 35-18 and 10-0 ATS. Even better: TCU is an awful 35-56-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded Conference foe, including 4-16 ATS if the Horned Frogs were off a double-digit win. Take the Longhorns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Hawks v. Spurs -9.5||Top||111-117||Loss||-110||17 h 37 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks beat the league's #1 team on Sunday, while the Spurs were stunned, 113-106, at home by Sacramento. I love the Spurs to bounce back this evening, as NBA teams off 7-point (or worse) defeats have gone 115-77, 60% ATS, vs. foes off upset wins over .667 (or better) teams. San Antonio has also cashed 75% since April 18, 1993 off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite. Lay the points with the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Lakers v. Thunder -12.5||Top||103-119||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Los Angeles. The Lakers come into tonight's game off back to back wins (and covers) over Charlotte (129-115) and New Orleans (130-102), while the Thunder suffered their biggest upset loss of the season, on Sunday, when they fell to Dallas, as a 12.5-point favorite (106-103). OKC will once again be favored by double-digits tonight, and I expect a much different result than the last time these two teams met (the Lakers upset OKC, 138-128, on Jan. 17). First of all, the Lakers are an awful 33-62-4 ATS in the regular season off back to back wins and covers, if their opponent was off a loss. And, second, the Thunder are 32-15 ATS in the Regular season when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if the Thunder owned a winning record. Lay the points with OKC. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|04-01-19||Bucks v. Nets +2||Top||131-121||Loss||-105||7 h 6 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks' injury list is extensive for tonight's game: Nikola Mirotic (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Out), Pau Gasol (Out), Donte DiVincenzo (Out), Khris Middleton (Questionable), Tony Snell (Questionable). They played yesterday in Atlanta (also minus Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo), and went into overtime in a 136-135 loss. That sets up Milwaukee in a bad situation tonight, as unrested teams are 25-44 ATS after playing in a high-scoring game (262+ points) the day before. Certainly, this is a big game for both of these teams, as each is fighting for playoff positions. But Brooklyn's urgency is a bit greater as it sits just a half-game behind Detroit for 6th, and is in front of Miami by the same amount for the 7th spot. Milwaukee, meanwhile, still has 3 games of breathing room between it and Toronto for the #1 spot (with just five games to play). Brooklyn lost at home to these Bucks, 113-94, in their last meeting. But Brooklyn is 14-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS its last 11, when playing with revenge and not getting more than 6 points. Take the Nets. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|03-31-19||Kings v. Spurs -9||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||14 h 5 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento. The Spurs earned a playoff berth last night when Sacramento lost to Houston. And that moved the Spurs into the NBA record books as they've now made the Playoffs for 22 seasons in a row (tied with the 76ers franchise, 1950-71)! Tonight, the Spurs will take on Sacramento. And San Antonio will look to avenge its loss at Sacramento last month. This is a huge game for the Spurs as they want to win each of their last six games to avoid finishing in 8th place, and drawing the Warriors in the Opening Round. San Antonio is 48-26 ATS off a win, if it was playing with revenge against an opponent off a loss, and the Spurs weren't favored by 13+ points. Take San Antonio to blow out the Kings. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||Top||68-67||Loss||-107||12 h 4 m||Show|
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State. Mike Krzyzewski has owned Tom Izzo, with seven straight wins in this series. This evening, I look for Duke to rip off its 8th straight win vs. Michigan State. Yes, it's true that the Spartans come into this game off impressive wins over LSU (80-63) and Minnesota (70-50), while Duke has yet to cover the spread in the Tourney. But Number 1-seeded teams have covered 68% off back to back ATS losses, if their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins. Additionally, Duke falls into several of my very best systems, with records of 287-191, 32-8 and 164-81 ATS. Lay the small number with the Blue Devils. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||18 h 39 m||Show|
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Purdue. The Boilermakers upset Tennessee, in overtime, on Thursday. Unfortunately, single-digit underdogs (or PK) off upset wins have cashed just 57 of 132 NCAA Tournament games vs. foes off a point spread loss. And teams off overtime wins are a horrid 29% ATS since 2001, including 9-38 ATS when priced from -3 to +10 points. Take Virginia. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4||Top||75-69||Loss||-109||15 h 0 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are off to a 3-0 ATS start to this Tournament. And they've won each game in blowout fashion, with wins by 15 (Northern Kentucky), 20 (Buffalo) and 19 (Michigan). Unfortunately, NCAA Tourney teams have cashed just 18.7% over the last 29 years off three ATS wins, if they won those three games by 15+ points. Take Gonzaga today to blow out Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-29-19||Houston v. Kentucky -2.5||Top||58-62||Win||100||44 h 45 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Houston. The Wildcats have rebounded off their loss to Tennessee in the SEC Conference Tournament with back to back wins (and covers) over Abilene Christian and Wofford. On Friday, the Wildcats will take on the 33-3 Houston Cougars. And Kentucky is at its very best in the post-season when matched up against top-level teams with a win percentage of .750 (or better), if Kentucky is not off 3+ ATS wins. Since 1991, the Wildcats are an awesome 42-14-2 ATS, including 11-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points with Kentucky. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-28-19||Oregon v. Virginia -8||Top||49-53||Loss||-115||20 h 12 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Oregon. The Ducks, as a 12 seed, are the lowest seed remaining in this Tourney. They upset Wisconsin in the first round, and then caught a break by getting to play 13-seed Cal Irvine last Sunday. Oregon was favored by 4.5 in that game, and won, 73-54. Unfortunately, Oregon won't be catching a break in the Sweet 16, as they'll have to play the 2nd best team in the Tournament. And teams seeded #11 (or worse), that won as a favorite in Round 2, are a horrid 0-13 straight up and 3-9-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round. Admittedly, the Ducks are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 10 straight wins and covers. But that's never been a positive indicator in this NCAA Tournament, as teams off 9+ ATS wins have covered just 22% over the past 26 years. Take Virginia. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-28-19||Florida State v. Gonzaga -7||Top||58-72||Win||100||39 h 21 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Florida State. Number 1 seeds have dominated, lately, in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 Round. Over the last four seasons, they've gone 12-0 straight-up, and 10-1-1 ATS. And, dating back to 1990, #1 seeds, priced from -6 to -10 points, are 37-4 straight-up and 27-13-1 ATS in the Sweet 16. This is also a huge revenge game for Gonzaga, which lost in last season's Sweet 16 Round to these same Seminoles. Last season, the Bulldogs were a #4 seed, but they were still favored by 6 over the 9th-seeded Seminoles, who pulled off the upset, 75-60. However, in the post-season, over the last 18 years, teams playing with revenge from an upset Tourney loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 7 points, have gone 12-0 straight-up and 10-0-2 ATS (including 6 outright upset wins)! Take Gonzaga to blow out the Seminoles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-27-19||Colorado v. Texas -5.5||Top||55-68||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Colorado, in the quarterfinals of the NIT Tournament. The Buffaloes won and covered their first two games in this NIT Tournament. But both of those were played in Boulder. This game will be in Austin, Texas. And Colorado is a horrid 9-27 straight-up and 8-27-1 ATS in its last 36 lined road games, including 2-18 ATS when the Buffaloes owned a W/L percentage greater than .600. Even worse: the Buffs are 9-24 ATS off back to back ATS wins, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Meanwhile, the Big 12 Conference has been strong (8-1 ATS their last nine) in the NIT Tournament, at the quarterfinal round forward. Take Texas to blow out the Buffaloes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
|03-27-19||Pacers v. Thunder -6||Top||99-107||Win||100||16 h 27 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Indiana. These two teams met 13 days ago in Indianapolis, and the Pacers came away with a 2-point victory, as a 1-point home favorite. That game kick-started a 1-5 SU/ATS stretch for the Thunder, which reached its lowest point this past Monday when they lost to the woeful Grizzlies, 115-103. OKC is now in 7th place in the Western Conference. But I love OKC to bounce back on this Wednesday. Indiana hasn't been able to beat quality teams on the road this season. Since December 19, the Pacers are 0-10 straight up and 2-8 ATS on the road vs. foes with a win percentage of .481 (or better). And OKC is 43-21-2 ATS in the regular season when playing with same-season revenge vs. Eastern Conference foes that won their previous game. Take the Thunder. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-26-19||Wichita State v. Indiana -4.5||Top||73-63||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Wichita State. The Shockers will attempt to become the first NIT Tournament team (in the Tourney's 82-year history) to knock off its Region's Top 3 Seeds. Wichita has already won blowouts at Furman (76-70) and at Clemson (63-55). Unfortunately for the Shockers, NIT Tourney teams are a soft 34-54 ATS away from home after covering the point spread by 6+ points in each of their previous two games. Take Indiana to blow out Wichita. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-25-19||Coastal Carolina v. West Virginia -9||Top||109-91||Loss||-109||16 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The key factor in this game is WVU's home court. The Mountaineers have been solid over the years in the post-season, when playing at home. Since 1990, they've cashed 64%, including a perfect 3-0 ATS when laying 9+ points. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has been awful in the post-season when playing away from home (8-27 straight-up; 5-10 ATS (with 20 non-lined games). And when the point spread on the game was in the single-digits (i.e., below 10), then the Chanticleers were 1-7 ATS. West Virginia blew out Grand Canyon, 77-63, here, at home, in its first round game. In contrast, Coastal Carolina struggled, somewhat, at home vs. Howard, and failed to cover the 11-point spread in an 81-72 win. WVU is 48-20-1 ATS at home off a home win, including 19-3 ATS if its opponent failed to cover the point spread in its previous game. Take the Mountaineers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-24-19||Buffalo v. Texas Tech -3.5||Top||58-78||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Buffalo. The Bulls won the Mid-American Conference this season, and are 30-3 on the year. But Mid-American Conference teams are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 2-9 ATS as underdogs of +3.5 (or more) points off an NCAA Tournament win. And MAC Conference teams are also 1-23 straight-up and 5-17-2 ATS vs. Big 12 foes with a win percentage of .800 (or better), including 0-7 ATS their last seven. We played on the Red Raiders in their Friday victory over Northern Kentucky. Texas Tech won that game, 72-57, as a 13-point favorite. And the Red Raiders are now 10-1 straight-up and 9-2 ATS their last 11 games. This will be a rout. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-23-19||Jazz -9.5 v. Bulls||Top||114-83||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Chicago. The Jazz went into Atlanta on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak, but left with their tail between their legs after the Hawks upset them, 117-114, as a 7.5 point underdog. I look for Quin Snyder's men to bounce back on this Saturday, as they're 19-9 ATS off a loss this season. Meanwhile, Chicago's an awful 2-10 ATS at home off a win. Lay the points with Utah. NBA GAME OF THE WEEK! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-23-19||Arkansas v. Indiana -5.5||Top||60-63||Loss||-109||4 h 44 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Arkansas. The Razorbacks defeated the Hoosiers by a point earlier this season. But that game was played in Fayetteville. On the road, Arkansas has consistently burned money for bettors over the years. Indeed, the Razorbacks are a miserable 16-33 on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Lay the points with Indiana. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-22-19||Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5||Top||70-64||Loss||-107||29 h 4 m||Show|
At 2 pm, on Friday afternoon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Cal Irvine. The Wildcats were seeded #1 in their Big 12 Conference tourney, but were bounced out by the Iowa State Cyclones. They're now seeded 4th in this NCAA Tournament against a 13th-seeded Anteaters squad, which has won 16 straight games. We'll lay the points with the Wildcats, as NCAA Tourney teams, seeded #4 or #3, that lost as a top 2-seeded team in either the quarter-finals or semi-finals of their conference tourney, have cashed 63.2% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Additionally, Kansas State falls into my favorite Tourney system which is 155-58 ATS since 1990. Finally, Big West Conference teams are a horrid 23-52 ATS vs. Big 12 member schools, including 6-25 ATS when priced from -3 to +13 points. Take Kansas State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Pistons -7 v. Suns||Top||118-98||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Phoenix. The Pistons come into tonight's game vs. the Suns off a road loss, at Cleveland. But I love Detroit to rebound off that defeat, and blow out the Suns tonight. Detroit already pounded Phoenix earlier this season, 118-107. And that was Detroit's fourth straight double-digit win vs. the Suns (by an average of 22.25 ppg). Even more impressive is the fact that the Pistons are a super 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings vs. the Suns. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Baylor +2 v. Syracuse||Top||78-69||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Syracuse. Baylor enters this Tournament ice cold, with four straight losses. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Baylor. But teams off 4+ losses have actually cashed 65.3% over the last 29 years in the post-season (non-conference) tournaments, if they were at home, or on a neutral court. Moreover, Baylor is a spectacular 57-25-4 ATS off back to back defeats, including 7-0 ATS when priced from PK to +2.5. And, finally, the Big 12 Conference has dominated the ACC Conference lately, with a 25-7 SU and 23-9 ATS record over the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 11-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4.5 to +3.5 points. Take Baylor. Good luck as always...Al McMordie
|03-21-19||Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -26.5||Top||49-87||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson. The Bulldogs were upset by rival St. Mary's to end their West Coast Conference season. Gonzaga, though, is an awesome 24-2 SU and 16-9 ATS off a loss. Even better: #1-seeded teams are a solid 60% in the post-season off an upset loss, if they're playing the 2nd of back to back games away from home. Take the Zags minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Florida Atlantic v. Charleston Southern -4.5||Top||66-68||Loss||-108||10 h 59 m||Show|
At 7 pm, in the COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers minus the points over Florida Atlantic. The Buccaneers had covered nine straight games prior to losing to Radford in the semifinals of the Big South Conference tourney. We'll take the Bucs to bounce back at home tonight vs. the Owls, as the Owls have covered just two of their last 11 post-season games. Finally, Charleston Southern falls into a 69-27 ATS Tourney system of mine which plays on certain home teams in Conference tourneys. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette -3.5||Top||83-64||Loss||-104||8 h 55 m||Show|
At 4:30 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles minus the points over Murray State. The Racers upset Belmont in the Championship game of the Ohio Valley Tournament, and are 27-4 this season. Meanwhile, Marquette was upset by Seton Hall to end its Big East season, and finished with a 24-9 overall record. Over the last 29 seasons, teams off upset defeats have covered 64.3% vs. .750 (or better) foes off upset wins. Take Marquette.
|03-21-19||Belmont v. Maryland -3||Top||77-79||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
At 3:10 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Belmont. The Bruins have been a great offensive team this season, as they average 87.2 ppg. But I believe they'll find it a tad difficult to score against this Maryland club, which gives up just 65.1 ppg. Even worse: In the NCAA Tourney, teams seeded #3 (or worse), that average 86+ points per game, are an awful 0-16 ATS as underdogs of less than 12 points (or PK). Take Maryland.
|03-21-19||Yale v. LSU -6.5||Top||74-79||Loss||-105||4 h 43 m||Show|
At 12:40 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Yale. Yale comes into this game off three straight wins -- over Princeton (twice) and Harvard in the Ivy League title game. But all three of those games were played on Yale's home court. And, dating back to 1990, teams that had the benefit of winning their conference tournament on their home court have burned $$$ in their first NCAA tourney game. Even worse for Yale: it's a woeful 2-13 ATS as an underdog priced from +4 to +9 points. Take LSU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-20-19||Loyola Marymount v. California Baptist +1.5||Top||56-55||Win||100||16 h 58 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the California Baptist Lancers + the points over Loyola Marymount. The Lions have been an historically poor traveler, as they've covered just 65 of 155 road games. That doesn't bode well for them tonight, as a small road favorite. Even worse: West Coast Conference teams (like Loyola) are a horrid 0-9 SU/ATS their last nine on the road in the post-season. Finally, Loyola was upset by Pepperdine, as a 4.5-point favorite in the West Coast Conference tourney. And road favorites have cashed just 34.3% over the past 29 years in the post-season tournaments off an upset defeat. Take California Baptist. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-20-19||Wizards -2.5 v. Bulls||Top||120-126||Loss||-108||5 h 28 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Chicago. The Wizards are mathematically still alive for a Playoff spot, but just barely. They come into tonight's game off a 21-point loss to Utah, and trail 8th-seeded Miami by 4.5 games with just 11 to play. That makes tonight's game against the 20-52 Bulls ultra-important. I fully expect the Wizards to rebound off that blowout loss, as they had covered seven of eight going into that game. And there's no shame in losing to the Jazz right now, as Utah's won its last four games by 17, 20, 16 and 21 points. Meanwhile, Chicago is coming off an upset win at Phoenix. We had a play on Chicago that night, but will go against the Bulls today. One of my stocks-in-trade is to go against certain bad teams off wins. The Bulls certainly fit the bill tonight, as they fall into several of my best negative systems, with records of 63-121, 202-317 and 138-233 ATS. Throw in the fact that Chicago is a miserable 5-14 ATS at home this season vs. other losing teams, and we'll pull the trigger on the Wizards. Take Washington. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-20-19||Central Michigan v. DePaul -5||Top||86-100||Win||100||13 h 16 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over Central Michigan. The Blue Demons lost to St Johns, 82-74, to end their Big East season. That game, however, was played in St. John's home town of New York City. Tonight's game will be back in Chicago, where the Demons are 12-6 this season. We'll lay the points, as Mid-American Conference teams are an awful 30-57 ATS as non-conference underdogs away from home, priced from +3 to +5.5 points, including 5-26 ATS their last 31, and 4-16 ATS in the Tournaments. Additionally, DePaul's cashed 67% as a home favorite in the post-season off a SU loss. And it also falls into one of my favorite systems, which is 135-55 ATS since 1990. Take DePaul.
|03-20-19||Southern Miss v. Longwood +11||Top||68-90||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Longwood Lancers + the points over Southern Mississippi. Over the last 29 years, there have been 101 home underdogs in the post-season (non-conference) tourneys, and the Lancers are the only double-digit home underdog among them. Over the last five seasons, home dogs in these tournaments have cashed 63.8%, and we'll grab the points with Longwood tonight. The Lancers fall into 67-27 and 17-0 ATS tourney systems of mine. Meanwhile, Southern Miss is a poor 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS on the road in the post-season, including 0-5 ATS off a straight-up loss. Take Longwood.
|03-19-19||Belmont -3 v. Temple||81-70||Win||100||14 h 20 m||Show|
At 9:10 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Temple. Belmont falls into an NCAA Tourney systems, which is 62-30 ATS. That angle plays on certain teams off a double-digit loss (Belmont fell to Murray State, 77-65, to end its season). But before that defeat, Belmont had won its previous 14 games (10-2-2 ATS)! I won't step in front of Belmont tonight, given the short price, as .833 (or better) NCAA Tourney teams have cashed 69 percent as favorites of -8 or less points, if they were off a loss to end their season. Take the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-19-19||CS-Northridge +12.5 v. Utah Valley||Top||84-92||Win||100||14 h 12 m||Show|
At 9 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Cal State Northridge Matadors + the points over Utah Valley. The Matadors are double-digit underdogs this evening, and it's hard to turn down that many points with a team which was 16-4-1 ATS as an underdog/PK this season (and 20-7-2 ATS, overall). Northridge also falls into a 100% Perfect, 16-0 ATS Tourney system of mine. Take the points with the Matadors.
|03-19-19||South Dakota State v. Texas -9.5||Top||73-79||Loss||-104||14 h 4 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over South Dakota State. Texas ended its season with losses in five of its last six games. One problem for the Longhorns was that their leading scorer, Kerwin Roach II (14.7 ppg), missed five of those six games due to suspension. But he returned for Texas' final Big 12 game of the season -- a 65-57 loss to Kansas in the quarterfinals. The NIT Tournament committee seeded Texas #2 in its region, so it will start this tourney at home, in Austin. And the Longhorns won 12 of their 18 home games this season. That bodes well for Texas tonight, as home teams have cashed 78% in the post-season tourneys since 1991 if they owned a .666 (or better) home W/L percentage, and lost their three previous games SU/ATS. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-19-19||Cornell v. Robert Morris +1||Top||89-98||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
At 7 pm, in the College Insider Tournament, our selection is on the Robert Morris Colonials over Cornell. This game will be played in Coraopolis, PA, where Robert Morris was 12-3 SU and 8-5 ATS this season. Cornell, meanwhile, won just six of its 17 games away from home. And it lost its last four road games by 24, 23, 18 and 9 points. Yet the Big Red have been installed as a road favorite. We'll go against Cornell, as road favorites have covered just 10 of 34 games to open a post-season tournament. Take Robert Morris.
|03-18-19||Bulls +2 v. Suns||Top||116-101||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Phoenix. The Suns won their last game -- at New Orleans -- but are just 17-54 on the season. And I love playing against certain bad teams off wins. Phoenix, tonight, certainly fits the bill, as they fall into a negative 36-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain .333 (or worse) teams off a win. The Suns are a poor 1-8 ATS at home their last nine after back to back road games. And they're 9-21 ATS at home off a point spread win. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-18-19||Warriors v. Spurs +2.5||Top||105-111||Win||100||18 h 51 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Golden State. Gregg Popovich's crew is currently the hottest team in the NBA, with eight straight wins. And they're now within shouting distance of a top 4 seed (and home court advantage) in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. As things currently stand, San Antone is in 6th place in the West, but just a half-game ahead of the eighth-seeded Clippers, so each game has significant importance to the team. Tonight, the Spurs will welcome the West's best team, the 47-21 Warriors, to the Alamo City. When these two teams last met, Golden State ran the Spurs out of the gym, with a 141-102 cakewalk. I look for the Spurs to avenge that defeat, as they're a perfect 17-0 ATS at home vs. foes with a .600 to .750 win percentage, if the Spurs were playing with revenge from a loss by more than 21 points. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-17-19||Wolves v. Rockets -8||Top||102-117||Win||100||1 h 59 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Minnesota. James Harden will likely suit up tonight, per his coach, Mike D'Antoni. And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Houston in this important game. The Rockets have lost the last two meetings to the T-Wolves but are 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with double revenge. And they also fall into a great 67-35 ATS Revenge system of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-17-19||Cincinnati v. Houston -4.5||Top||69-57||Loss||-109||8 h 20 m||Show|
At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Cincinnati. These two teams met just seven days ago in Cincinnati, and the Cougars blew out the Bearcats, 85-69. And Houston also won the first meeting, 65-58, at home. That bodes well for Houston this afternoon vs. the 27-6 Bearcats, as College Basketball underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, with a win percentage greater than .700, have cashed just 35 of 97 times when playing with double-revenge. Take the Cougars minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-17-19||Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -3.5||Top||64-73||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia St. Panthers minus the points over Texas Arlington. The Mavericks have won and covered five straight games, heading into this Championship round match. They've been installed as an underdog vs. the Panthers, who defeated them in each of the two regular season meetings this season (63-58; 77-71). And it's actually the 3rd straight Tournament game in which Texas Arlington has been the underdog. That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon, as Sun Belt Conference teams have cashed just once in 10 Title games when they were off an upset win in the Semi-Finals (and their foe was not). Take Georgia St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Oregon v. Washington +2||Top||68-48||Loss||-105||13 h 38 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies over Oregon. The Ducks won and covered for the 7th straight time last night when they stormed back in the 2nd half and won in overtime vs. the Utah Utes. But off that overtime win, we will fade the Ducks tonight. One reason is Oregon's long ATS win streak. And the Ducks fall into a negative 29-79 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on long point spread win streaks. Additionally, Washington falls into 41-5, 63-27 and 56-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in the Conference tourneys with stellar records (the Huskies have won 17 of 20 Pac-12 Conference games this season, and earned the #1 seed in the Tournament). Finally, Washington is 24-15-1 ATS in its last 40 Pac-12 Conference games, and Top 2-seeded teams have cashed 19 of their last 24 Pac-12 Tourney games (including 9-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -4.5 points). Take the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Blazers v. Spurs -2||Top||103-108||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over Portland. Both of these teams played last night, and each put another game into the win column. The Spurs were at home, and notched their seventh straight win with a blowout of New York. Meanwhile, Portland went into the Big Easy, and defeated New Orleans, 122-110. The Spurs have an advantage tonight due to Portland's travel situation. And San Antone is also a super 94-56-2 ATS vs. unrested foes, including 7-0 ATS their last seven. Take the Spurs minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -10||Top||73-87||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Bowling Green. The Falcons moved into this Mid-American Conference Championship round game with wins over Ball State and and Northern Illinois. This will be a much taller task for Bowling Green, as #1-seeded Buffalo is on an 11-game win streak. Even worse: Mid-American Conference underdogs of +4 (or more) points, with a .636 (or better) conference win percentage, have gone 99-151 ATS, if they were off a win vs. a conference foe in their previous game. Take Buffalo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Seton Hall v. Villanova -3.5||Top||72-74||Loss||-116||9 h 38 m||Show|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Seton Hall. This is a big revenge game for the Wildcats, who lost to the Pirates in their final regular season game. The Wildcats are a super 67% ATS as a favorite in the post-season since 1990 when playing with revenge. And they're also 21-6 ATS off a point spread defeat. With the Wildcats in off an ATS loss to Xavier yesterday, we'll lay the points with the Wildcats.
|03-16-19||Iowa State +1.5 v. Kansas||Top||78-66||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Iowa St. Cyclones + over Kansas. The Cyclones play this game with revenge from an 80-76 loss at Kansas, on January 21. And Iowa State is 53-26-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss on the road earlier in the season (including 13-6 in the Tournament). Take the Cyclones. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||San Diego State v. Utah State -6.5||Top||57-64||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over San Diego St. The Aztecs pulled off a big upset last night when they defeated top-seeded Nevada. Unfortunately, NCAA teams have cashed just 14% when matched up against .813 (or better) teams after upsetting the top seed in the Semi-Final round. Take Utah St.
|03-16-19||Texas State v. Georgia State +1||Top||46-59||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
At 4:00 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers over Texas State. The Panthers come into this afternoon's game on a 3-game SU/ATS winning streak. And they also play with revenge from a 13-point home defeat to the Bobcats back on January 24. Georgia State is an awesome 31-14-4 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 5-0 ATS their last five, and 15-3 ATS when the point spread was 6 points or less. And the Panthers also fall into 44-7 and 58-20 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine that play on certain teams that covered the spread by 8+ points in their previous game. Finally, the Panthers have an advantage today in that they received a "bye" into this semi-final round, while the Bobcats had to play yesterday. And, since 2007, teams that received a bye into the semi-finals have covered 70% of the time vs. unrested foes off a quarter-final round win. Take Georgia State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Fresno State v. Utah State -3.5||Top||60-85||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies over Fresno State. The Aggies are 25-6 this season, and have won their last eight games in a row. It's true that they failed to cover last night as a double-digit favorite. However, the price is much cheaper tonight. There's no way I will step in front of this freight train, and especially not in this price range. Indeed, over the last 25 years, the Aggies have cashed 68% in the Conference Tourney when the line was 8 points or less, including 11-0 ATS its last 11 if Utah State was off a point spread defeat. Take the Aggies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Iowa v. Michigan -8||Top||53-74||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Iowa. We played on the Hawkeyes last night, and were rewarded with a blowout win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes now will try to upset a Wolverines team which was defeated by Michigan State, 75-63, in its final regular season game. Michigan, though, is a spectacular 70-27 SU and 61-32-1 ATS off a loss, including 11-1 ATS its last 12. Take Michigan minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Mississippi State v. Tennessee -5.5||Top||76-83||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Mississippi State. The Volunteers were upset on the road by Auburn to end their regular season. I fully expect the Vols to rebound tonight, as top 3-seeded SEC Conference teams have cashed 75% in the Tourney over the past 29 years if they were upset in their final regular season game. Lay the points with Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||West Virginia v. Kansas -10.5||Top||74-88||Win||100||12 h 48 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over West Virginia. The Mountaineers stunned the 2nd-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders last night. But it's "out of the frying pan, and into the fire" for the Mountaineers, as they will now have to face the 3rd-seeded Jayhawks. And Kansas has generally destroyed its opponents when such foes were off an upset Tourney win, in which they covered the point spread by double-digits. Since 1992, the Jayhawks are 21-7 ATS. Take Kansas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Alabama v. Kentucky -11.5||Top||55-73||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Alabama. Avery Johnson's Crimson Tide upset Ole Miss last night to advance to this quarterfinal round game. And they also upset Kentucky when the two teams last met in January. The Wildcats, meanwhile, lost against the spread vs. Florida to end their regular season. But we'll lay the points with Kentucky tonight, as SEC Conference teams have covered 75% over the last 29 years in the Tourney, if they were off an ATS loss, and favored against a team which defeated it in the season's previous meeting. Even better: the Wildcats are 34-16 ATS in the post-season off a point spread defeat. This will be a rout. Take Kentucky minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||SMU v. Cincinnati -7||Top||74-82||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over SMU. The Bearcats are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. And they also lost their last two games, both straight-up and ATS, to end their regular season. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Cincy, and on the Mustangs, who won and covered their last two games. But since 1990, Tourney teams seeded #2 or better have covered 79% if they lost their two previous games SU/ATS while their opponent won their two previous games SU/ATS. Take Cincinnati. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Central Michigan v. Buffalo -12.5||Top||81-85||Loss||-108||9 h 49 m||Show|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Central Michigan. The 18th-ranked Bulls failed to cover the point spread in their last four regular season games. But they bounced back in a big way yesterday with a blowout win (82-46) over Akron to kick off what they hope will be a run to the MAC Conference Tournament Championship. This evening, they will look to make it two-in-a-row, and they'll battle the Chippewas, who upset Kent State yesterday. The Chips are also on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. However, double-digit underdogs off an upset Conference Tourney win (and off 3 SU/ATS wins, overall), have covered just 35% of Conference Tourney games since 1990. Take Buffalo.
|03-15-19||South Alabama v. Texas State -6||Top||67-79||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over South Alabama. The eighth-seeded Jaguars upset Louisiana-Lafayette last night, while Texas State was upset, on the road, by Texas Arlington to end its regular season. The good news, though, for the Bobcats is that teams off upset road losses have covered 73% since 1990 vs. 8th-seeded (or worse) foes off an upset Tourney win. Take Texas State.
|03-14-19||Illinois v. Iowa -4||Top||62-83||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Illinois. The Hawkeyes come into this game on an 8-game point spread losing streak. And they've also lost their last four games straight-up. Still, Iowa throttled Illinois earlier this season, 95-71, as a 9-point home favorite. I don't foresee much changing tonight, given that Illinois had to go to overtime to win last night, 74-69 in its Tourney opener vs. Northwestern. Illinois is a poor 7-23 ATS off a win, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS losses, while Iowa falls into 59-26, 85-45 and 18-6 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off a string off losses. Take the Hawkeyes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-14-19||Texas +3 v. Kansas||Top||57-65||Loss||-110||12 h 47 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Kansas. Texas stumbled down the stretch with back to back losses, 70-51 at Texas Tech and 69-56 at home (as a 7-point favorite) vs. TCU. However, Texas is a super 45-23-1 ATS off a home defeat, including 3-0 ATS in the Tourneys, and 16-3 ATS if they lost their previous game by more than 10 points. Take the Longhorns. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|03-14-19||Southern Utah v. Northern Colorado -7.5||Top||83-64||Loss||-108||9 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Southern Utah. The Bears were stunned, 89-78, as a 13-point home favorite by Northern Arizona in their final regular season game. Off that horrible game, we will back Northern Colorado to bounce back this evening. Generally speaking, teams off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites do bounce back in their next game, including 141-106, 57% ATS as a favorite. Lay the points with the Bears.
|03-14-19||UAB v. Texas-San Antonio +1||Top||85-76||Loss||-110||8 h 59 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over UAB. The Roadrunners were blown out, 81-48, by Southern Mississippi to end their regular season. Off that debacle, we'll play on UTSA this evening. One reason I am not unnerved by that 33-point loss is that the Roadrunners were great against the point spread this season, with a 16-9 ATS record. And NCAA teams with a winning ATS record have cashed 57% ATS in the Conference Tourneys off a 15-point (or worse) defeat. UTSA also falls into 21-1, 45-10 and 47-18 ATS systems of mine. Take the Roadrunners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-14-19||Louisiana Tech v. Old Dominion -3.5||Top||56-57||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs over Louisiana Tech. Old Dominion comes into this game off back to back upset losses. Still, ODU was 13-5 in Conference USA play this season. And teams with a .601 (or better) conference W/L percentage have covered 67% since 1990 in the Conference Tourneys, if they were off back to back upset losses. Take Old Dominion.
|03-14-19||Indiana v. Ohio State +2.5||Top||75-79||Win||100||2 h 30 m||Show|
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Indiana. Ohio State has dropped its last three games, including an overtime heartbreaker on Sunday vs. Wisconsin. The good news for the Buckeyes this afternoon is that they will be playing an Indiana team off a 16-point home blowout of Rutgers (and an 18-point road win at Illinois two games back). Why is this good? Because Indiana is an awful 33-55 ATS away from home after covering the spread in back to back games. And it's 0-8 ATS away from home after winning its previous game by 15+ points. Take the Buckeyes.
|03-14-19||Providence v. Villanova -5.5||Top||62-73||Win||100||1 h 33 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Providence. The #1-seeded Wildcats were upset in their final regular season game -- 79-75 at Seton Hall. We'll take the 'Cats to bounce back this afternoon, as teams off upset losses away from home to end the regular season have rebounded to cover the spread 59% of the time in the Conference Tourney. Even better: Villanova won both meetings this season vs. Providence, including an 18-point blowout on Feb. 13. Take Villanova.
|03-13-19||Washington State +11.5 v. Oregon||Top||51-84||Loss||-115||9 h 21 m||Show|
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Oregon. Wazzu has lost five straight games -- both SU and ATS -- while Oregon has won and covered four straight. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice-cold Cougars. But I have a great 39-9 ATS system, as well as a 26-3 ATS angle, that both play on certain teams off 5 straight losses (and 3 straight ATS losses). The Cougars are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 post-season games. Take Washington State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-13-19||Jazz -7 v. Suns||Top||114-97||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns were a 17-point road underdog on Sunday night, in Oakland. And they had lost 18 straight games to Golden State going into that game. But they pulled the biggest upset in the NBA in over 3 years (and equaled the biggest ROAD upset in almost 21 years) when they won outright, 115-111. Faithful followers, though, know that I love going against bad teams off wins. And Phoenix -- with a 16-52 record -- certainly fits the bill. Tonight, the Suns have been installed as a single-digit home underdog vs. Utah. And that doesn't bode well for them, as they've lost by double-digits to the Jazz in each of the last four meetings, including identical 116-88 scores in each of the last two meetings! It's true that Utah has stumbled to the eighth seed in the current race for a Western Conference playoff berth. The good news for Utah, though, with respect to tonight's game is that it's 20-10 off an ATS loss this season, while Phoenix is 9-20 ATS at home off an ATS win. And the Jazz are also 83-53 ATS in the regular season as a favorite off an upset loss at home. And they've cashed 75% over the past 21 years as a rested road favorite of -7+ points off a loss. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-13-19||North Texas -2 v. Florida International||Top||71-57||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Florida International. This is a rematch of a game played four days ago on the Panthers home court. Florida International did win that home game, 73-58. But that sets up North Texas to get revenge today, as teams off a SU/ATS road loss in their final regular season game have covered 57% of the time when they're matched up against the very same foe in the Conference tourney. Take North Texas.
|03-13-19||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7||Top||59-73||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Pittsburgh. After losing 13 straight games (both SU and ATS) - which was the first time it has happened in the 29 years my database covers (and maybe the first time ever) - the Panthers have ripped off 2 straight wins and covers. We actually played on Pitt in the first of those two wins (against Notre Dame), though we laid off yesterday's game vs. Boston College. We won't lay off tonight's game, though, as Syracuse falls into an 85-47 ATS system of mine, based on its 67-55 loss to Clemson on Saturday. And it's also 7-1 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. Additionally, Syracuse has defeated Pitt four straight times. And the Panthers are a poor 5-13 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Take Syracuse.
|03-13-19||Fordham v. Richmond -4.5||Top||50-52||Loss||-105||5 h 57 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders minus the points over Fordham. The Spiders have dropped four straight games heading into this Atlantic 10 Tourney. But Fordham hasn't done much better, with losses in five of its last six games (and 16 of its last 19). We'll lay the points this afternoon, as favorites on 4-game (or worse) losing streaks have cashed 71% of Tournament games provided they weren't upset in their previous game. Take Richmond. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-12-19||Notre Dame -1.5 v. Georgia Tech||Top||78-71||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Georgia Tech. The Fighting Irish are currently riding a 7-game losing streak, as they haven't won since February 10. And their opponent on that day? These Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Notre Dame won that game, 69-59. And we'll look for the Irish to defeat Georgia Tech once again on this Tuesday afternoon, as favorites on 4-game (or worse) losing streaks have cashed 70% of Tournament games provided they weren't upset in their previous game. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-09-19||Pepperdine v. San Francisco -6.5||Top||89-72||Loss||-115||12 h 15 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Pepperdine. The Dons have dropped three straight games. But this losing streak has triggered several of my best systems, with records of 89-41, 75-35 and 237-163. Moreover, in the West Coast Conference Tournament, teams off 3 ATS losses have covered 75% of the time, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by more than a point. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.