|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia -115||Top||77-85||Win||100||20 h 21 m||Show|
At 9:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers on the money line (currently -118), to win the game straight-up vs. Texas Tech. At the start of the season, in November, I picked the Cavaliers to win the NCAA Title, at 22-1 odds. I also selected Virginia to win this tournament when the field was announced three weeks ago. So, with the Cavaliers on the doorstep of winning their first National Championship, I am certainly not going to back away now. It's absolutely true that Virginia has been fortunate to win their last two games. They needed overtime to put Purdue away in the Elite Eight, and then benefited from an Auburn shooting foul on Kyle Guy on a failed 3-point attempt. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Red Raiders, who have covered their last five games, and against a Cavaliers squad which failed to cover vs. Auburn. But Final Four teams off a point spread loss have gone 11-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points, if their opponent was off an ATS win. Even better: teams (like Texas Tech) off an upset win, have gone just 28-47 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points. And teams off 3 straight upset wins have cashed just 31.5% in the NCAA Tournament since 1994 vs. foes not off an ATS win. Finally, the Cavaliers have been spectacular the past two seasons off an ATS defeat (19-1 SU; 15-4 ATS). Take Virginia on the money line. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-06-19||Auburn v. Virginia -5||Top||62-63||Loss||-115||31 h 2 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Auburn. The 5th-seeded Tigers are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 12 straight wins, including back to back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds. But this is the point where Cinderella generally gets her glass slipper smashed. Indeed, in the NCAA Tournament, teams seeded #5 (or worse), and installed as an underdog of +6 or less points, are 0-7 SU/ATS in the semi-final round since 1990. And, since 1995, underdogs off back-to-back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds are a poor 0-11 straight-up, and 2-9 ATS in the NCAA Semi-Finals. Finally, #1-seeded ACC Conference teams have gone 14-3 straight-up and 13-4 ATS since 2000 in the NCAA Tourney's Final Four. Virginia will blow out Auburn. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-05-19||South Florida +1.5 v. DePaul||Top||77-65||Win||100||16 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over DePaul. The Bulls have covered four straight heading into tonight's game at McGrath-Phillips Arena. The first two games in this series went down to the wire. South Florida outlasted DePaul, 63-61, on Monday at Yuengling Center, in Tampa. Then, on Wednesday, the Blue Demons evened up the series with a 4-point overtime win, here in Chicago. South Florida, though, covered the closing line of +4.5 (it did open at +3.5, however). Given the closeness of this series, it's hard to turn down points with the Bulls. After all, besides its current 4-game ATS win streak, the Bulls have gone 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Blue Demons. Take South Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-04-19||Lipscomb v. Texas -1||Top||66-81||Win||100||17 h 12 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Lipscomb. The #5-seeded Bison have been underdogs (or PK) every step of the way in this NIT Tournament. And they've been installed as a dog, yet again, in this Championship game. By my numbers, though, they should be getting 1.5 more points, so the value rests on the side of the Longhorns. Even worse for Lipscomb: underdogs have been awful in the NIT Tournament off 3 straight wins as an underdog (or PK), as they've gone 1-6 ATS in that role. And teams seeded#5 (or worse) are 0-6-1 ATS in the NIT Final Four if they're matched up against a higher-seeded opponent (here, Texas is seeded 2nd). Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have gone 12-3 ATS in the NIT Tournament, at the quarter-final round forward, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when not favored by 4+ points. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-03-19||South Florida v. DePaul -5.5||Top||96-100||Loss||-108||17 h 54 m||Show|
At 8 pm, on Wednesday, in Game 2 of the Best-of-3 Championship series of the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over South Florida. These two schools have a long history against one another, as they were member schools in Conference USA together, and also member schools of the Big East Conference together. Currently, South Florida is an American Athletic Conference member, so this series was the first time the schools had met since March 2013. Lately, South Florida has had the upper hand, with nine straight wins (8-0-1 ATS). But since 1996, the series has been pretty evenly played, with the Bulls holding a 13-11 record (12-11-1 ATS). The key factor for tonight's game is that the Bulls have been dreadful in the post-season when they've had to play on an opponent's home court. They've gone 0-8 straight-up and 1-6-1 ATS (with their only ATS win by a single point). And, yes, it's true that South Florida is 2-0-1 ATS its last three games, while DePaul is 0-2-1 ATS in its last three. But in post-season tournaments, home teams not off an ATS win in either of their two previous games, have covered 63.1% if they weren't favored by more than 7 points against a foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in either of its two previous games. Take the Blue Demons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-02-19||Texas +1.5 v. TCU||Top||58-44||Win||100||17 h 28 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over TCU. Both of these teams come into this NIT Semi-Final off 13-point wins. Texas defeated Creighton, 71-58, while TCU bested Colorado, 68-55. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are both Big 12 Conference members, of course. And the two teams met twice earlier this season, with TCU coming out on top in both games. However, Texas now falls into several revenge systems of mine, with records of 35-12, 35-18 and 10-0 ATS. Even better: TCU is an awful 35-56-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded Conference foe, including 4-16 ATS if the Horned Frogs were off a double-digit win. Take the Longhorns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||Top||68-67||Loss||-107||12 h 4 m||Show|
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State. Mike Krzyzewski has owned Tom Izzo, with seven straight wins in this series. This evening, I look for Duke to rip off its 8th straight win vs. Michigan State. Yes, it's true that the Spartans come into this game off impressive wins over LSU (80-63) and Minnesota (70-50), while Duke has yet to cover the spread in the Tourney. But Number 1-seeded teams have covered 68% off back to back ATS losses, if their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins. Additionally, Duke falls into several of my very best systems, with records of 287-191, 32-8 and 164-81 ATS. Lay the small number with the Blue Devils. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||18 h 39 m||Show|
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Purdue. The Boilermakers upset Tennessee, in overtime, on Thursday. Unfortunately, single-digit underdogs (or PK) off upset wins have cashed just 57 of 132 NCAA Tournament games vs. foes off a point spread loss. And teams off overtime wins are a horrid 29% ATS since 2001, including 9-38 ATS when priced from -3 to +10 points. Take Virginia. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4||Top||75-69||Loss||-109||15 h 0 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are off to a 3-0 ATS start to this Tournament. And they've won each game in blowout fashion, with wins by 15 (Northern Kentucky), 20 (Buffalo) and 19 (Michigan). Unfortunately, NCAA Tourney teams have cashed just 18.7% over the last 29 years off three ATS wins, if they won those three games by 15+ points. Take Gonzaga today to blow out Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-29-19||Houston v. Kentucky -2.5||Top||58-62||Win||100||44 h 45 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Houston. The Wildcats have rebounded off their loss to Tennessee in the SEC Conference Tournament with back to back wins (and covers) over Abilene Christian and Wofford. On Friday, the Wildcats will take on the 33-3 Houston Cougars. And Kentucky is at its very best in the post-season when matched up against top-level teams with a win percentage of .750 (or better), if Kentucky is not off 3+ ATS wins. Since 1991, the Wildcats are an awesome 42-14-2 ATS, including 11-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points with Kentucky. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-28-19||Oregon v. Virginia -8||Top||49-53||Loss||-115||20 h 12 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Oregon. The Ducks, as a 12 seed, are the lowest seed remaining in this Tourney. They upset Wisconsin in the first round, and then caught a break by getting to play 13-seed Cal Irvine last Sunday. Oregon was favored by 4.5 in that game, and won, 73-54. Unfortunately, Oregon won't be catching a break in the Sweet 16, as they'll have to play the 2nd best team in the Tournament. And teams seeded #11 (or worse), that won as a favorite in Round 2, are a horrid 0-13 straight up and 3-9-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round. Admittedly, the Ducks are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 10 straight wins and covers. But that's never been a positive indicator in this NCAA Tournament, as teams off 9+ ATS wins have covered just 22% over the past 26 years. Take Virginia. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-28-19||Florida State v. Gonzaga -7||Top||58-72||Win||100||39 h 21 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Florida State. Number 1 seeds have dominated, lately, in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 Round. Over the last four seasons, they've gone 12-0 straight-up, and 10-1-1 ATS. And, dating back to 1990, #1 seeds, priced from -6 to -10 points, are 37-4 straight-up and 27-13-1 ATS in the Sweet 16. This is also a huge revenge game for Gonzaga, which lost in last season's Sweet 16 Round to these same Seminoles. Last season, the Bulldogs were a #4 seed, but they were still favored by 6 over the 9th-seeded Seminoles, who pulled off the upset, 75-60. However, in the post-season, over the last 18 years, teams playing with revenge from an upset Tourney loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 7 points, have gone 12-0 straight-up and 10-0-2 ATS (including 6 outright upset wins)! Take Gonzaga to blow out the Seminoles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-27-19||Colorado v. Texas -5.5||Top||55-68||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Colorado, in the quarterfinals of the NIT Tournament. The Buffaloes won and covered their first two games in this NIT Tournament. But both of those were played in Boulder. This game will be in Austin, Texas. And Colorado is a horrid 9-27 straight-up and 8-27-1 ATS in its last 36 lined road games, including 2-18 ATS when the Buffaloes owned a W/L percentage greater than .600. Even worse: the Buffs are 9-24 ATS off back to back ATS wins, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Meanwhile, the Big 12 Conference has been strong (8-1 ATS their last nine) in the NIT Tournament, at the quarterfinal round forward. Take Texas to blow out the Buffaloes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
|03-26-19||Wichita State v. Indiana -4.5||Top||73-63||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Wichita State. The Shockers will attempt to become the first NIT Tournament team (in the Tourney's 82-year history) to knock off its Region's Top 3 Seeds. Wichita has already won blowouts at Furman (76-70) and at Clemson (63-55). Unfortunately for the Shockers, NIT Tourney teams are a soft 34-54 ATS away from home after covering the point spread by 6+ points in each of their previous two games. Take Indiana to blow out Wichita. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-25-19||Coastal Carolina v. West Virginia -9||Top||109-91||Loss||-109||16 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The key factor in this game is WVU's home court. The Mountaineers have been solid over the years in the post-season, when playing at home. Since 1990, they've cashed 64%, including a perfect 3-0 ATS when laying 9+ points. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has been awful in the post-season when playing away from home (8-27 straight-up; 5-10 ATS (with 20 non-lined games). And when the point spread on the game was in the single-digits (i.e., below 10), then the Chanticleers were 1-7 ATS. West Virginia blew out Grand Canyon, 77-63, here, at home, in its first round game. In contrast, Coastal Carolina struggled, somewhat, at home vs. Howard, and failed to cover the 11-point spread in an 81-72 win. WVU is 48-20-1 ATS at home off a home win, including 19-3 ATS if its opponent failed to cover the point spread in its previous game. Take the Mountaineers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-24-19||Buffalo v. Texas Tech -3.5||Top||58-78||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Buffalo. The Bulls won the Mid-American Conference this season, and are 30-3 on the year. But Mid-American Conference teams are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 2-9 ATS as underdogs of +3.5 (or more) points off an NCAA Tournament win. And MAC Conference teams are also 1-23 straight-up and 5-17-2 ATS vs. Big 12 foes with a win percentage of .800 (or better), including 0-7 ATS their last seven. We played on the Red Raiders in their Friday victory over Northern Kentucky. Texas Tech won that game, 72-57, as a 13-point favorite. And the Red Raiders are now 10-1 straight-up and 9-2 ATS their last 11 games. This will be a rout. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-23-19||Arkansas v. Indiana -5.5||Top||60-63||Loss||-109||4 h 44 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Arkansas. The Razorbacks defeated the Hoosiers by a point earlier this season. But that game was played in Fayetteville. On the road, Arkansas has consistently burned money for bettors over the years. Indeed, the Razorbacks are a miserable 16-33 on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Lay the points with Indiana. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-22-19||Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5||Top||70-64||Loss||-107||29 h 4 m||Show|
At 2 pm, on Friday afternoon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Cal Irvine. The Wildcats were seeded #1 in their Big 12 Conference tourney, but were bounced out by the Iowa State Cyclones. They're now seeded 4th in this NCAA Tournament against a 13th-seeded Anteaters squad, which has won 16 straight games. We'll lay the points with the Wildcats, as NCAA Tourney teams, seeded #4 or #3, that lost as a top 2-seeded team in either the quarter-finals or semi-finals of their conference tourney, have cashed 63.2% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Additionally, Kansas State falls into my favorite Tourney system which is 155-58 ATS since 1990. Finally, Big West Conference teams are a horrid 23-52 ATS vs. Big 12 member schools, including 6-25 ATS when priced from -3 to +13 points. Take Kansas State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Baylor +2 v. Syracuse||Top||78-69||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Syracuse. Baylor enters this Tournament ice cold, with four straight losses. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Baylor. But teams off 4+ losses have actually cashed 65.3% over the last 29 years in the post-season (non-conference) tournaments, if they were at home, or on a neutral court. Moreover, Baylor is a spectacular 57-25-4 ATS off back to back defeats, including 7-0 ATS when priced from PK to +2.5. And, finally, the Big 12 Conference has dominated the ACC Conference lately, with a 25-7 SU and 23-9 ATS record over the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 11-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4.5 to +3.5 points. Take Baylor. Good luck as always...Al McMordie
|03-21-19||Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -26.5||Top||49-87||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson. The Bulldogs were upset by rival St. Mary's to end their West Coast Conference season. Gonzaga, though, is an awesome 24-2 SU and 16-9 ATS off a loss. Even better: #1-seeded teams are a solid 60% in the post-season off an upset loss, if they're playing the 2nd of back to back games away from home. Take the Zags minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Florida Atlantic v. Charleston Southern -4.5||Top||66-68||Loss||-108||10 h 59 m||Show|
At 7 pm, in the COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers minus the points over Florida Atlantic. The Buccaneers had covered nine straight games prior to losing to Radford in the semifinals of the Big South Conference tourney. We'll take the Bucs to bounce back at home tonight vs. the Owls, as the Owls have covered just two of their last 11 post-season games. Finally, Charleston Southern falls into a 69-27 ATS Tourney system of mine which plays on certain home teams in Conference tourneys. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette -3.5||Top||83-64||Loss||-104||8 h 55 m||Show|
At 4:30 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles minus the points over Murray State. The Racers upset Belmont in the Championship game of the Ohio Valley Tournament, and are 27-4 this season. Meanwhile, Marquette was upset by Seton Hall to end its Big East season, and finished with a 24-9 overall record. Over the last 29 seasons, teams off upset defeats have covered 64.3% vs. .750 (or better) foes off upset wins. Take Marquette.
|03-21-19||Belmont v. Maryland -3||Top||77-79||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
At 3:10 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Belmont. The Bruins have been a great offensive team this season, as they average 87.2 ppg. But I believe they'll find it a tad difficult to score against this Maryland club, which gives up just 65.1 ppg. Even worse: In the NCAA Tourney, teams seeded #3 (or worse), that average 86+ points per game, are an awful 0-16 ATS as underdogs of less than 12 points (or PK). Take Maryland.
|03-21-19||Yale v. LSU -6.5||Top||74-79||Loss||-105||4 h 43 m||Show|
At 12:40 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Yale. Yale comes into this game off three straight wins -- over Princeton (twice) and Harvard in the Ivy League title game. But all three of those games were played on Yale's home court. And, dating back to 1990, teams that had the benefit of winning their conference tournament on their home court have burned $$$ in their first NCAA tourney game. Even worse for Yale: it's a woeful 2-13 ATS as an underdog priced from +4 to +9 points. Take LSU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-20-19||Loyola Marymount v. California Baptist +1.5||Top||56-55||Win||100||16 h 58 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the California Baptist Lancers + the points over Loyola Marymount. The Lions have been an historically poor traveler, as they've covered just 65 of 155 road games. That doesn't bode well for them tonight, as a small road favorite. Even worse: West Coast Conference teams (like Loyola) are a horrid 0-9 SU/ATS their last nine on the road in the post-season. Finally, Loyola was upset by Pepperdine, as a 4.5-point favorite in the West Coast Conference tourney. And road favorites have cashed just 34.3% over the past 29 years in the post-season tournaments off an upset defeat. Take California Baptist. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-20-19||Central Michigan v. DePaul -5||Top||86-100||Win||100||13 h 16 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over Central Michigan. The Blue Demons lost to St Johns, 82-74, to end their Big East season. That game, however, was played in St. John's home town of New York City. Tonight's game will be back in Chicago, where the Demons are 12-6 this season. We'll lay the points, as Mid-American Conference teams are an awful 30-57 ATS as non-conference underdogs away from home, priced from +3 to +5.5 points, including 5-26 ATS their last 31, and 4-16 ATS in the Tournaments. Additionally, DePaul's cashed 67% as a home favorite in the post-season off a SU loss. And it also falls into one of my favorite systems, which is 135-55 ATS since 1990. Take DePaul.
|03-20-19||Southern Miss v. Longwood +11||Top||68-90||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Longwood Lancers + the points over Southern Mississippi. Over the last 29 years, there have been 101 home underdogs in the post-season (non-conference) tourneys, and the Lancers are the only double-digit home underdog among them. Over the last five seasons, home dogs in these tournaments have cashed 63.8%, and we'll grab the points with Longwood tonight. The Lancers fall into 67-27 and 17-0 ATS tourney systems of mine. Meanwhile, Southern Miss is a poor 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS on the road in the post-season, including 0-5 ATS off a straight-up loss. Take Longwood.
|03-19-19||Belmont -3 v. Temple||81-70||Win||100||14 h 20 m||Show|
At 9:10 pm, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Temple. Belmont falls into an NCAA Tourney systems, which is 62-30 ATS. That angle plays on certain teams off a double-digit loss (Belmont fell to Murray State, 77-65, to end its season). But before that defeat, Belmont had won its previous 14 games (10-2-2 ATS)! I won't step in front of Belmont tonight, given the short price, as .833 (or better) NCAA Tourney teams have cashed 69 percent as favorites of -8 or less points, if they were off a loss to end their season. Take the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-19-19||CS-Northridge +12.5 v. Utah Valley||Top||84-92||Win||100||14 h 12 m||Show|
At 9 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Cal State Northridge Matadors + the points over Utah Valley. The Matadors are double-digit underdogs this evening, and it's hard to turn down that many points with a team which was 16-4-1 ATS as an underdog/PK this season (and 20-7-2 ATS, overall). Northridge also falls into a 100% Perfect, 16-0 ATS Tourney system of mine. Take the points with the Matadors.
|03-19-19||South Dakota State v. Texas -9.5||Top||73-79||Loss||-104||14 h 4 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over South Dakota State. Texas ended its season with losses in five of its last six games. One problem for the Longhorns was that their leading scorer, Kerwin Roach II (14.7 ppg), missed five of those six games due to suspension. But he returned for Texas' final Big 12 game of the season -- a 65-57 loss to Kansas in the quarterfinals. The NIT Tournament committee seeded Texas #2 in its region, so it will start this tourney at home, in Austin. And the Longhorns won 12 of their 18 home games this season. That bodes well for Texas tonight, as home teams have cashed 78% in the post-season tourneys since 1991 if they owned a .666 (or better) home W/L percentage, and lost their three previous games SU/ATS. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-19-19||Cornell v. Robert Morris +1||Top||89-98||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
At 7 pm, in the College Insider Tournament, our selection is on the Robert Morris Colonials over Cornell. This game will be played in Coraopolis, PA, where Robert Morris was 12-3 SU and 8-5 ATS this season. Cornell, meanwhile, won just six of its 17 games away from home. And it lost its last four road games by 24, 23, 18 and 9 points. Yet the Big Red have been installed as a road favorite. We'll go against Cornell, as road favorites have covered just 10 of 34 games to open a post-season tournament. Take Robert Morris.
|03-17-19||Cincinnati v. Houston -4.5||Top||69-57||Loss||-109||8 h 20 m||Show|
At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Cincinnati. These two teams met just seven days ago in Cincinnati, and the Cougars blew out the Bearcats, 85-69. And Houston also won the first meeting, 65-58, at home. That bodes well for Houston this afternoon vs. the 27-6 Bearcats, as College Basketball underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, with a win percentage greater than .700, have cashed just 35 of 97 times when playing with double-revenge. Take the Cougars minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-17-19||Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -3.5||Top||64-73||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia St. Panthers minus the points over Texas Arlington. The Mavericks have won and covered five straight games, heading into this Championship round match. They've been installed as an underdog vs. the Panthers, who defeated them in each of the two regular season meetings this season (63-58; 77-71). And it's actually the 3rd straight Tournament game in which Texas Arlington has been the underdog. That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon, as Sun Belt Conference teams have cashed just once in 10 Title games when they were off an upset win in the Semi-Finals (and their foe was not). Take Georgia St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Oregon v. Washington +2||Top||68-48||Loss||-105||13 h 38 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies over Oregon. The Ducks won and covered for the 7th straight time last night when they stormed back in the 2nd half and won in overtime vs. the Utah Utes. But off that overtime win, we will fade the Ducks tonight. One reason is Oregon's long ATS win streak. And the Ducks fall into a negative 29-79 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on long point spread win streaks. Additionally, Washington falls into 41-5, 63-27 and 56-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in the Conference tourneys with stellar records (the Huskies have won 17 of 20 Pac-12 Conference games this season, and earned the #1 seed in the Tournament). Finally, Washington is 24-15-1 ATS in its last 40 Pac-12 Conference games, and Top 2-seeded teams have cashed 19 of their last 24 Pac-12 Tourney games (including 9-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -4.5 points). Take the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -10||Top||73-87||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Bowling Green. The Falcons moved into this Mid-American Conference Championship round game with wins over Ball State and and Northern Illinois. This will be a much taller task for Bowling Green, as #1-seeded Buffalo is on an 11-game win streak. Even worse: Mid-American Conference underdogs of +4 (or more) points, with a .636 (or better) conference win percentage, have gone 99-151 ATS, if they were off a win vs. a conference foe in their previous game. Take Buffalo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||Seton Hall v. Villanova -3.5||Top||72-74||Loss||-116||9 h 38 m||Show|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Seton Hall. This is a big revenge game for the Wildcats, who lost to the Pirates in their final regular season game. The Wildcats are a super 67% ATS as a favorite in the post-season since 1990 when playing with revenge. And they're also 21-6 ATS off a point spread defeat. With the Wildcats in off an ATS loss to Xavier yesterday, we'll lay the points with the Wildcats.
|03-16-19||Iowa State +1.5 v. Kansas||Top||78-66||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Iowa St. Cyclones + over Kansas. The Cyclones play this game with revenge from an 80-76 loss at Kansas, on January 21. And Iowa State is 53-26-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss on the road earlier in the season (including 13-6 in the Tournament). Take the Cyclones. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-16-19||San Diego State v. Utah State -6.5||Top||57-64||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over San Diego St. The Aztecs pulled off a big upset last night when they defeated top-seeded Nevada. Unfortunately, NCAA teams have cashed just 14% when matched up against .813 (or better) teams after upsetting the top seed in the Semi-Final round. Take Utah St.
|03-16-19||Texas State v. Georgia State +1||Top||46-59||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
At 4:00 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers over Texas State. The Panthers come into this afternoon's game on a 3-game SU/ATS winning streak. And they also play with revenge from a 13-point home defeat to the Bobcats back on January 24. Georgia State is an awesome 31-14-4 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 5-0 ATS their last five, and 15-3 ATS when the point spread was 6 points or less. And the Panthers also fall into 44-7 and 58-20 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine that play on certain teams that covered the spread by 8+ points in their previous game. Finally, the Panthers have an advantage today in that they received a "bye" into this semi-final round, while the Bobcats had to play yesterday. And, since 2007, teams that received a bye into the semi-finals have covered 70% of the time vs. unrested foes off a quarter-final round win. Take Georgia State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Fresno State v. Utah State -3.5||Top||60-85||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies over Fresno State. The Aggies are 25-6 this season, and have won their last eight games in a row. It's true that they failed to cover last night as a double-digit favorite. However, the price is much cheaper tonight. There's no way I will step in front of this freight train, and especially not in this price range. Indeed, over the last 25 years, the Aggies have cashed 68% in the Conference Tourney when the line was 8 points or less, including 11-0 ATS its last 11 if Utah State was off a point spread defeat. Take the Aggies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Iowa v. Michigan -8||Top||53-74||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Iowa. We played on the Hawkeyes last night, and were rewarded with a blowout win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes now will try to upset a Wolverines team which was defeated by Michigan State, 75-63, in its final regular season game. Michigan, though, is a spectacular 70-27 SU and 61-32-1 ATS off a loss, including 11-1 ATS its last 12. Take Michigan minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Mississippi State v. Tennessee -5.5||Top||76-83||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Mississippi State. The Volunteers were upset on the road by Auburn to end their regular season. I fully expect the Vols to rebound tonight, as top 3-seeded SEC Conference teams have cashed 75% in the Tourney over the past 29 years if they were upset in their final regular season game. Lay the points with Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||West Virginia v. Kansas -10.5||Top||74-88||Win||100||12 h 48 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over West Virginia. The Mountaineers stunned the 2nd-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders last night. But it's "out of the frying pan, and into the fire" for the Mountaineers, as they will now have to face the 3rd-seeded Jayhawks. And Kansas has generally destroyed its opponents when such foes were off an upset Tourney win, in which they covered the point spread by double-digits. Since 1992, the Jayhawks are 21-7 ATS. Take Kansas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Alabama v. Kentucky -11.5||Top||55-73||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Alabama. Avery Johnson's Crimson Tide upset Ole Miss last night to advance to this quarterfinal round game. And they also upset Kentucky when the two teams last met in January. The Wildcats, meanwhile, lost against the spread vs. Florida to end their regular season. But we'll lay the points with Kentucky tonight, as SEC Conference teams have covered 75% over the last 29 years in the Tourney, if they were off an ATS loss, and favored against a team which defeated it in the season's previous meeting. Even better: the Wildcats are 34-16 ATS in the post-season off a point spread defeat. This will be a rout. Take Kentucky minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||SMU v. Cincinnati -7||Top||74-82||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over SMU. The Bearcats are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. And they also lost their last two games, both straight-up and ATS, to end their regular season. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Cincy, and on the Mustangs, who won and covered their last two games. But since 1990, Tourney teams seeded #2 or better have covered 79% if they lost their two previous games SU/ATS while their opponent won their two previous games SU/ATS. Take Cincinnati. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-15-19||Central Michigan v. Buffalo -12.5||Top||81-85||Loss||-108||9 h 49 m||Show|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Central Michigan. The 18th-ranked Bulls failed to cover the point spread in their last four regular season games. But they bounced back in a big way yesterday with a blowout win (82-46) over Akron to kick off what they hope will be a run to the MAC Conference Tournament Championship. This evening, they will look to make it two-in-a-row, and they'll battle the Chippewas, who upset Kent State yesterday. The Chips are also on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. However, double-digit underdogs off an upset Conference Tourney win (and off 3 SU/ATS wins, overall), have covered just 35% of Conference Tourney games since 1990. Take Buffalo.
|03-15-19||South Alabama v. Texas State -6||Top||67-79||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over South Alabama. The eighth-seeded Jaguars upset Louisiana-Lafayette last night, while Texas State was upset, on the road, by Texas Arlington to end its regular season. The good news, though, for the Bobcats is that teams off upset road losses have covered 73% since 1990 vs. 8th-seeded (or worse) foes off an upset Tourney win. Take Texas State.
|03-14-19||Illinois v. Iowa -4||Top||62-83||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Illinois. The Hawkeyes come into this game on an 8-game point spread losing streak. And they've also lost their last four games straight-up. Still, Iowa throttled Illinois earlier this season, 95-71, as a 9-point home favorite. I don't foresee much changing tonight, given that Illinois had to go to overtime to win last night, 74-69 in its Tourney opener vs. Northwestern. Illinois is a poor 7-23 ATS off a win, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS losses, while Iowa falls into 59-26, 85-45 and 18-6 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off a string off losses. Take the Hawkeyes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-14-19||Texas +3 v. Kansas||Top||57-65||Loss||-110||12 h 47 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Kansas. Texas stumbled down the stretch with back to back losses, 70-51 at Texas Tech and 69-56 at home (as a 7-point favorite) vs. TCU. However, Texas is a super 45-23-1 ATS off a home defeat, including 3-0 ATS in the Tourneys, and 16-3 ATS if they lost their previous game by more than 10 points. Take the Longhorns. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|03-14-19||Southern Utah v. Northern Colorado -7.5||Top||83-64||Loss||-108||9 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Southern Utah. The Bears were stunned, 89-78, as a 13-point home favorite by Northern Arizona in their final regular season game. Off that horrible game, we will back Northern Colorado to bounce back this evening. Generally speaking, teams off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites do bounce back in their next game, including 141-106, 57% ATS as a favorite. Lay the points with the Bears.
|03-14-19||UAB v. Texas-San Antonio +1||Top||85-76||Loss||-110||8 h 59 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over UAB. The Roadrunners were blown out, 81-48, by Southern Mississippi to end their regular season. Off that debacle, we'll play on UTSA this evening. One reason I am not unnerved by that 33-point loss is that the Roadrunners were great against the point spread this season, with a 16-9 ATS record. And NCAA teams with a winning ATS record have cashed 57% ATS in the Conference Tourneys off a 15-point (or worse) defeat. UTSA also falls into 21-1, 45-10 and 47-18 ATS systems of mine. Take the Roadrunners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-14-19||Louisiana Tech v. Old Dominion -3.5||Top||56-57||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs over Louisiana Tech. Old Dominion comes into this game off back to back upset losses. Still, ODU was 13-5 in Conference USA play this season. And teams with a .601 (or better) conference W/L percentage have covered 67% since 1990 in the Conference Tourneys, if they were off back to back upset losses. Take Old Dominion.
|03-14-19||Indiana v. Ohio State +2.5||Top||75-79||Win||100||2 h 30 m||Show|
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Indiana. Ohio State has dropped its last three games, including an overtime heartbreaker on Sunday vs. Wisconsin. The good news for the Buckeyes this afternoon is that they will be playing an Indiana team off a 16-point home blowout of Rutgers (and an 18-point road win at Illinois two games back). Why is this good? Because Indiana is an awful 33-55 ATS away from home after covering the spread in back to back games. And it's 0-8 ATS away from home after winning its previous game by 15+ points. Take the Buckeyes.
|03-14-19||Providence v. Villanova -5.5||Top||62-73||Win||100||1 h 33 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Providence. The #1-seeded Wildcats were upset in their final regular season game -- 79-75 at Seton Hall. We'll take the 'Cats to bounce back this afternoon, as teams off upset losses away from home to end the regular season have rebounded to cover the spread 59% of the time in the Conference Tourney. Even better: Villanova won both meetings this season vs. Providence, including an 18-point blowout on Feb. 13. Take Villanova.
|03-13-19||Washington State +11.5 v. Oregon||Top||51-84||Loss||-115||9 h 21 m||Show|
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Oregon. Wazzu has lost five straight games -- both SU and ATS -- while Oregon has won and covered four straight. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice-cold Cougars. But I have a great 39-9 ATS system, as well as a 26-3 ATS angle, that both play on certain teams off 5 straight losses (and 3 straight ATS losses). The Cougars are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 post-season games. Take Washington State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-13-19||North Texas -2 v. Florida International||Top||71-57||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Florida International. This is a rematch of a game played four days ago on the Panthers home court. Florida International did win that home game, 73-58. But that sets up North Texas to get revenge today, as teams off a SU/ATS road loss in their final regular season game have covered 57% of the time when they're matched up against the very same foe in the Conference tourney. Take North Texas.
|03-13-19||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7||Top||59-73||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Pittsburgh. After losing 13 straight games (both SU and ATS) - which was the first time it has happened in the 29 years my database covers (and maybe the first time ever) - the Panthers have ripped off 2 straight wins and covers. We actually played on Pitt in the first of those two wins (against Notre Dame), though we laid off yesterday's game vs. Boston College. We won't lay off tonight's game, though, as Syracuse falls into an 85-47 ATS system of mine, based on its 67-55 loss to Clemson on Saturday. And it's also 7-1 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. Additionally, Syracuse has defeated Pitt four straight times. And the Panthers are a poor 5-13 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Take Syracuse.
|03-13-19||Fordham v. Richmond -4.5||Top||50-52||Loss||-105||5 h 57 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders minus the points over Fordham. The Spiders have dropped four straight games heading into this Atlantic 10 Tourney. But Fordham hasn't done much better, with losses in five of its last six games (and 16 of its last 19). We'll lay the points this afternoon, as favorites on 4-game (or worse) losing streaks have cashed 71% of Tournament games provided they weren't upset in their previous game. Take Richmond. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-12-19||Notre Dame -1.5 v. Georgia Tech||Top||78-71||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Georgia Tech. The Fighting Irish are currently riding a 7-game losing streak, as they haven't won since February 10. And their opponent on that day? These Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Notre Dame won that game, 69-59. And we'll look for the Irish to defeat Georgia Tech once again on this Tuesday afternoon, as favorites on 4-game (or worse) losing streaks have cashed 70% of Tournament games provided they weren't upset in their previous game. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-09-19||Pepperdine v. San Francisco -6.5||Top||89-72||Loss||-115||12 h 15 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Pepperdine. The Dons have dropped three straight games. But this losing streak has triggered several of my best systems, with records of 89-41, 75-35 and 237-163. Moreover, in the West Coast Conference Tournament, teams off 3 ATS losses have covered 75% of the time, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by more than a point. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-09-19||Vanderbilt +14 v. LSU||Top||59-80||Loss||-108||11 h 26 m||Show|
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over LSU. The Commodores were blitzed, 84-48, as a 1.5-point home underdog vs. Arkansas. The good news is that SEC Conference teams have generally rebounded off horrible losses, as they've cashed 77% as underdogs in Conference games off a loss where they failed to cover by 30+ points. Take Vanderbilt + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-09-19||Mercer +11 v. Furman||Top||74-85||Push||0||11 h 26 m||Show|
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Mercer Bears + the points over Furman. The Bears suffered their worst Southern Conference defeat as NC Greensboro blew them out by 27 points last Saturday. But we'll grab the points with Mercer, as losing teams, off a double-digit SU/ATS loss (and 2 SU/ATS losses, overall), have cashed 78.5% since 1990 in the Tourneys vs. winning teams off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take Mercer. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-09-19||Western Illinois +15 v. South Dakota State||Top||79-76||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over South Dakota State. These two teams just met seven days ago, and Western Illinois lost by 20, 86-66. But we'll take the double-digit underdog in this re-match, as underdogs have covered a solid 58.4% in the Summit League Tourney. The Leathernecks also fall into 75-35 and 84-46 ATS systems of mine. Take Western Illinois.
|03-09-19||Duke +4.5 v. North Carolina||Top||70-79||Loss||-115||9 h 4 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina. UNC went into Durham, and routed the Blue Devils, 88-72, in late February. But we'll grab the points with Duke in this rematch, as the revenging team in this series has covered 10 straight away from home if it wasn't getting more than 4 points. Take Duke. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-09-19||Northern Iowa +2 v. Drake||Top||60-58||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers + the points over Drake. The Panthers have been a consistently good tournament team over the years, and especially when they owned a winning Missouri Valley Conference record. Since 1994, they've cashed 71.4% in this role. Northern Iowa has also dominated the Bulldogs, as they've gone 39-18-3 ATS in the series, including 13-0-1 ATS their last 14 off a game in which they covered by 6+ points. Take Northern Iowa.
|03-09-19||Oklahoma v. Kansas State -7||Top||53-68||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Oklahoma. The Sooners upset Kansas, 81-68, in Norman, on Tuesday. Unfortunately, they're an awful 0-17 ATS away from home off a conference win, if they weren't getting 10+ points. Take Kansas State.
|03-09-19||UCF v. Temple -1||Top||62-67||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls over Central Florida. The Owls have been extremely dominant at home when not laying more than 6 points. They're 60-27-2 ATS in this role, including 42-14-1 ATS vs. Conference foes (and then 32-7 ATS when Pk'em or favored). Take Temple to blow out UCF.
|03-09-19||Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh -3||Top||53-56||Push||0||3 h 54 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Notre Dame. The Panthers have lost 13 straight games, and have failed to cover the point spread in each of those 13 games. My basketball database goes back to 1990 and includes 133,749 games. But this is the first time in the past 29 seasons where a team has lost AND failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games. But upon close inspection, the Panthers have been fairly competitive throughout this losing streak. Their average point spread differential has "only" been -4.80 points per game. To put this in perspective, when a team has failed to cover the point spread this season, they've failed to do so, on average, by 8.92 ppg. The Panthers fall into 111-52 and 84-45 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams on long losing streaks. And Notre Dame is an awful 1-8 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes off back to back losses. Take Pitt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-08-19||St. Joe's +12 v. VCU||Top||63-75||Push||0||14 h 24 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the St Joseph's Hawks + the points over VCU. The Hawks were upset by Rhode Island, 86-86, on Tuesday. So, they will look to bounce back on this Friday at VCU. I believe they will, as the underdog has cashed nine straight in this series. Also, since 1996, NCAA double-digit road underdogs have gone 358-258 ATS off an upset loss, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Take St Joe's. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-07-19||Portland +12.5 v. San Diego||Top||47-67||Loss||-109||17 h 48 m||Show|
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots + the points over San Diego. The Toreros have had scant success as a conference favorite over the years. Over the last 19+ years, they've covered just 55 of 144, including 9-31-1 ATS their last 41. That doesn't bode well for San Diego tonight. Even worse: the Toreros defeated the Pilots by 11 just two weeks ago. But San Diego is an awful 13-32-2 ATS at home, or on neutral courts, against revenge-minded foes off a loss. Take Portland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-07-19||UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. CS-Northridge||Top||76-74||Push||0||15 h 19 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal State Northridge. The Matadors pulled off a huge upset in their last game, as they went into Honolulu and upset the Rainbow Warriors, 84-73, as an 8-point dog. But off that win, we'll fade Northridge as a home underdog, as Big West home dogs have cashed just 82 of 215 Conference games off an upset win as a 4-point (or greater) road underdog. Take UCSB minus the points.
|03-07-19||Tennessee-Martin v. Jacksonville State -9.5||Top||81-88||Loss||-109||11 h 47 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks minus the points over Tennessee-Martin. These two teams met four weeks ago in Tennessee, and the Skyhawks upset the Gamecocks, 66-64, as a 9-point home underdog. Unfortunately for Tennessee-Martin, Ohio Valley Conference teams have cashed just 11% in the Conference Tourney if they won the previous meeting as a 5-point (or greater) underdog. Even better: the Gamecocks fall into 174-93 and 95-55 ATS revenge systems of mine. Lay the points. OVC Tourney Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-07-19||SMU +14 v. Houston||Top||79-90||Win||100||14 h 19 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Houston. The Mustangs were upset by the Cougars, 69-58, at home back in January. But I love SMU to avenge that defeat, as it's cashed 67% since 2008 when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the season. Meanwhile, Houston falls into a negative 255-415 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams with superior records. Take SMU + the double-digits.
|03-07-19||St. Peter's v. Marist -2||Top||71-68||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
At 5:00 pm, our selection is on the Marist Red Foxes minus the points over St. Peter's. Marist plays this Tournament game with double revenge, including an upset home loss to the Peacocks in the most recent meeting. That game -- back on February 22 -- kick-started Marist's current losing streak, which reached four games this past Sunday when the Red Foxes lost at home to Rider. We'll lay the points with Marist in this early evening game, as Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference teams have covered 71% in the Conference Tourney if they were playing with double-revenge, and were not getting 3+ points. Additionally, Marist is 23-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a straight-up home defeat. Finally, Marist falls into 85-62 and 57-37 ATS Tourney systems of mine that play on certain teams off 4+ losses. Take the Red Foxes. MAAC Tourney Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-06-19||Florida International v. Marshall -7||Top||78-94||Win||100||5 h 47 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Florida International. This game is part of a new regular-season scheduling format employed by Conference USA. The new format was motivated to give its better teams an opportunity to garner more wins against stronger competition, in order to provide them with an increased chance to make the NCAA Tournament. For the Conference's final four games of the season, teams are grouped according to their W/L records, and play teams within their group. And whether a game is played at home, or on the road is determined by a pre-set formula. Thus, when teams play a Conference opponent twice in the regular season, there will be a 50% chance that one of the teams will have had both of the meetings at home. And that's the case in this game, tonight. Marshall already defeated Florida International, 105-97, when these two teams met here, in Huntington, in January. The Herd was laying 9 points for that game. But the point spread is more favorable this evening due, in part, to the fact that Florida International comes into this game off 3 straight upset wins. Unfortunately for the Panthers, single-digit underdogs off 3 upset wins, have covered just 77 of 194 games. Take Marshall to blow out Florida International. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-05-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State -4.5||Top||64-73||Win||100||13 h 60 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Virginia Tech. The Hokies upset Duke, 77-72, as a 3-point underdog in their last game. Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 40% of the time after upsetting Duke over the past 29 seasons. And the Hokies also fall into a 58-100 ATS letdown system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset victories. Take Florida State.
|03-05-19||USC Upstate +14 v. Charleston Southern||Top||52-71||Loss||-110||13 h 59 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Upstate Spartans + the points over Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers have been installed as a big, double-digit favorite tonight in this Big South Conference Tournament game. However, Big South Conference favorites of more than 6 points have cashed just 38.2% in the Tournament. Additionally, the Spartans fall into two of my favorite Tourney systems, with records of 84-44 and 75-33 ATS since 1990. Finally, the Buccaneers have covered just two of their last 13 off a straight-up win. Take South Carolina Upstate. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-05-19||Nebraska +14 v. Michigan State||Top||76-91||Loss||-109||13 h 59 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Michigan State. We played against MSU on Saturday, and got the cash with Indiana, which upset the Spartans as a 6-point underdog. We'll go against the Spartans again tonight, as they've covered just 29.4% off an upset loss, when priced from -12.5 to -22 points. The Spartans also fall into several negative systems of mine that go against certain teams off losses, with records of 132-234, 47-97 and 31-74 ATS, while Nebraska falls into a very good 509-292 ATS system which plays on certain teams off blowout losses (Nebraska lost by 29 in its last game). Take the Cornhuskers.
|03-03-19||Tulane +17 v. Temple||Top||69-80||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over Temple. These two teams met in New Orleans, back on February 2, and the Green Wave covered the spread as a double-digit underdog. I look for Tulane to once again get the $$$, as Temple is a horrid 3-25 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage less than .600, if Temple was favored at home by more than 10 points. Take the points with the Green Wave. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-03-19||UTEP +3 v. Charlotte||Top||58-68||Loss||-115||7 h 44 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Charlotte. The 49ers are 6-20 on the season, and have yet to cover the point spread as a favorite (0-3 ATS). They lost earlier this season in El Paso, but I don't look for them to avenge that defeat, as they're a poor 3-13 ATS when playing with same-season revenge. Finally, UTEP falls into a strong 96-47 ATS system of mine. Take the Miners. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|03-02-19||Michigan State v. Indiana +6.5||Top||62-63||Win||100||2 h 39 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan State. The Spartans upset their rival, Michigan, last weekend. But off that victory, I expect a letdown this afternoon in Bloomington, as Michigan State falls into a negative 58-99 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins. Also, Indiana is a strong 27-14 ATS as a home underdog when it didn't have a losing record. Take the Hoosiers. NCAA Hoops High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|03-01-19||Cornell +12 v. Yale||Top||65-88||Loss||-105||14 h 25 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cornell Big Red + the points over Yale, as Cornell falls into 411-220, 97-46, 175-85 and 234-130 ATS systems of mine. These two teams met 13 days ago in Ithaca, and the Bulldogs came away with a six-point win, 98-92. We'll grab the points with the Big Red, as Ivy League road underdogs are 106-79-1 when playing with same-season revenge, if they're off back to back losses. With Cornell off 3 straight defeats, we'll take the points with the road underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-28-19||Western Illinois v. Denver -2||Top||46-74||Win||100||15 h 20 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Denver Pioneers minus the points over Western Illinois. The Leathernecks blew out Denver earlier this season, 78-60, at home. We'll take the Pioneers tonight in this revenge situation, as they also come into this game on a 7-game SU/ATS losing streak. However, since 1990, teams off 3+ SU/ATS losses have cashed 65.7% as a favorite, if they were playing with revenge from an 18-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season. Moreover, Western Illinois defeated Oral Roberts last Saturday, 75-66, as a 2-point home favorite. But it's a poor 29-50 ATS as a road underdog, and 14-30-2 ATS off a point spread win. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-27-19||Wyoming +18 v. Fresno State||Top||60-71||Win||100||16 h 5 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Fresno State. The Cowboys have lost their last four games to the point spread, and have dropped their last three games, straight-up. Wyoming falls into several of my favorite systems, with records of 339-211, 410-220, 415-248, 83-27 and 174-85 ATS. We'll grab the points with Wyoming, as Mountain West underdogs of +13.5 (or more) points are 157-103-3 ATS vs. winning opponents that are not off a double-digit loss. Take the Cowboys. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-27-19||Indiana State +6.5 v. Drake||Top||68-80||Loss||-109||14 h 6 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Indiana State Sycamores + the points over Drake. These two teams met last month in Terre Haute, and the Bulldogs edged Indiana State, 68-62. We'll take the underdog Sycamores in this revenge role, as they are 23-8-1 their last 32 when playing with revenge on the road from a home defeat earlier in the season. Additionally, Indiana State falls into a super 124-61 ATS system of mine. Take the Sycamores.
|02-27-19||Clemson v. Pittsburgh +4.5||Top||62-48||Loss||-108||13 h 6 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers + the points over Clemson. The Panthers have lost 10 straight games -- both SU and ATS. But this (very) long losing streak has set up the Panthers in 161-88 and 69-29 ATS "contrarian" systems of mine that play on certain teams on long losing streaks. Moreover, Clemson is a poor 37-61 ATS on the ACC Conference road off a win over an ACC Conference rival. Take Pittsburgh + the points.
|02-26-19||Arkansas +17 v. Kentucky||Top||66-70||Win||100||15 h 39 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Kentucky. The Razorbacks come into this game on a 5-game losing streak. And they also lost those five games against the point spread. But the good news for Razorback backers tonight is that SEC Conference teams have gone 175-122 ATS off 4+ point spread defeats, including 29-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog. The Razorbacks also fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 409-220 ATS since 1990 (and 14-7 ATS this year). Take Arkansas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-26-19||St. Louis +10.5 v. VCU||Top||65-71||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Billikens + the points over VCU. The Rams are on an 8-game SU/ATS winning streak. But this hot stretch has placed the Rams into a negative 61-121 ATS system of mine. This will be a tough game for VCU to cover, as the Billikens lost, 70-62, on Saturday at Dayton, as a 6-point underdog. And the Billikens are a jaw-dropping 16-0 ATS off a straight-up loss as a road underdog. Take St. Louis.
|02-26-19||Iowa v. Ohio State -2||Top||70-90||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been a horrid road team over the last 3+ years, as they're 11-24 straight-up, and 9-25-1 ATS their last 35 road games, including 1-7 ATS if they were off back to back home games. That doesn't bode well for the Hawkeyes tonight. As does the fact that the Buckeyes are 10-3 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take Ohio State.
|02-24-19||California +19 v. Arizona State||Top||59-69||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Arizona State. The Bears come into this game off back to back losses by 23+ points. And they failed to cover the point spread by 16.5 and 11.5 points in those two defeats. In contrast, Arizona State comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'hot' Sun Devils and against the 'cold' Bears. But NCAA Basketball teams off back to back 23-point (or worse) SU/ATS losses, in which they failed by 10+ ATS, have covered 68% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take Cal + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-24-19||Drake v. Illinois State -2||Top||60-67||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds minus the points over Drake. This has been a one-sided series, of late. Since February 2013, the Redbirds have won 11 of the 12 meetings (9-3 ATS), including the game played earlier this season, in Des Moines. Admittedly, the Redbirds are not playing great basketball at the moment, as they're on a 5-game losing streak (and an 0-3 ATS run). However, Missouri Valley Conference home teams have cashed 58.5% off 3 SU/ATS losses. Take Illinois State.
|02-24-19||Green Bay v. IUPU-Indianapolis -5||Top||68-79||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the IUPUI Jaguars minus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay. The Phoenix come into this road game off three SU/ATS wins over Oakland, Detroit and Illinois-Chicago. But we will fade them in this game, as they're a horrid 3-15 ATS away from home off 3 conference wins. And they're 10-22 ATS away from home in Conference games, if they won ATS in their two previous games. Take IUPUI.
|02-23-19||San Diego State v. UNLV +1.5||Top||60-59||Win||100||13 h 49 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Runnin' Rebels + the points over San Diego State. We played on SDSU on Thursday, and got the $$$ when the Aztecs upset Nevada (which is 24-2), 65-57, as an 8-point home underdog. Unfortunately for San Diego State, road favorites have covered just 30% of conference games over the last 29 years after pulling off a home upset as an underdog of +7.5 (or more) points. Indeed, just two nights ago, this system had an easy winner with Elon +1.5 over NC Wilmington after Wilmington pulled off an upset as a 9-point home underdog over Hofstra last Saturday. Take the Runnin' Rebels + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-23-19||Northern Illinois +9.5 v. Toledo||Top||54-57||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Toledo. The Huskies are currently riding a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, which started with a home loss to these Rockets. But I love the Huskies as a big underdog this evening, as they're a sensational 78-44 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points off a loss, including 35-15 ATS if their opponent owned a winning SU/ATS record. And they're 22-9 ATS away from home if they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Northern Illinois falls into a 151-73 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks, as well as a 113-53 ATS angle. Take the Huskies + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-23-19||Wofford v. Furman -1||Top||72-64||Loss||-109||7 h 43 m||Show|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins over Wofford. The Terriers are 15-0 SU in Southern Conference play this season. But don't be surprised if Furman hands Wofford its first conference defeat, as it's red-hot as well, with a 6-0 SU/ATS mark in its last six games. And Furman's hot streak has set it up in 67-41 and 231-128 ATS systems of mine. The Paladins also play this game with revenge from a 5-point loss to Wofford back in January. And Furman is 15-2 ATS (including 10-1 ATS at home), if it lost a season's previous meeting to its opponent. Take the Paladins.
|02-23-19||Florida State +7 v. North Carolina||Top||59-77||Loss||-109||7 h 32 m||Show|
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina. This is a tough spot for the Tar Heels. They're ripe for a letdown following their big upset of rival Duke, as a 10-point underdog, earlier this week. And the Tar Heels are a poor 2-8 ATS their last 10 vs. .760 (or better) foes, if the Tar Heels are off an upset win. Moreover, Florida State has won eight straight, and covered their last five. And Florida State also falls into 155-74 and 134-60 ATS systems of mine. Take the Seminoles + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-23-19||Georgia +10.5 v. Ole Miss||Top||71-72||Win||100||6 h 13 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over Mississippi. It's true that the Rebels have been terrific this season, with an 18-8 record, and a 19-7 ATS ledger. But Ole Miss has covered just 16 of 43 home games when favored by 9+ points, if it had a winning SU/ATS record. Moreover, this SEC Conference series has been dominated by the Bulldogs, as they're 26-10 ATS in the last 36 meetings. Take Georgia.
|02-23-19||Iowa State -1.5 v. TCU||Top||72-75||Loss||-108||5 h 48 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over TCU. The Cyclones play this game with revenge from an upset loss at home two Saturdays ago to these Horned Frogs. But ISU is a staggering 22-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if it was priced in the current game from +1 to -5.5 points. Even better: the Cyclones fall into a 113-74 ATS revenge system of mine. Take the Cyclones. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|02-23-19||Central Michigan v. Ball State -5||Top||64-57||Loss||-108||5 h 44 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals minus the points over Central Michigan. The Chippewas are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. But this ATS hot streak has actually placed the Chips into a negative 99-167 ATS system of mine. Even worse: Central Michigan lost earlier this season to Ball State. But the Chips have been horrible in a revenge role when priced as an underdog of less than 7 points, as they're 8-28 SU and 11-24-1 ATS. Take Ball State.
|02-23-19||West Virginia +12.5 v. Baylor||Top||75-82||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the WVU Mountaineers + the points over Baylor. The Bears upset Iowa State, 73-69, as a double-digit underdog in their previous game. But that upset win has triggered a negative 81-160 ATS letdown system of mine. Also, Baylor is a horrid 6-18 ATS, including 0-7 ATS their last seven, as a regular season home favorite priced from -10 to -18.5 points. Take WVU.