|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||Top||16-44||Win||100||162 h 42 m||Show|
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Alabama. It's hard for me to pass up this many points with a team which has the better rush defense, the better rush offense, and the better defense in terms of points per game. Clemson has allowed 11.9 ppg, while Alabama's defense has given up 16.2. And Clemson rushed for 6.7 yards per carry (against foes that give up 4.5 ypr). On defense, the Tigers were also stellar, as they gave up just 2.4 yards per rush (against foes that averaged 4.4). In contrast, Alabama rushed for 5.3 ypr (against foes that surrendered 4.5 ypr (the same as Clemson's opponents, but 1.4 ypr less than Clemson gained)). And Alabama gave up 3.5 ypr against foes that averaged 4.8 ypr). When all the numbers are blended together, then Clemson's total YPR differential was +2.40 relative to Alabama. And its defense differential was +3.28 ppg. To illustrate how rare it is that you get that combination of YPR and Defensive PPG strength in a big underdog in a bowl game, consider that in the last 39 years, there has NEVER been an underdog of +6 or more points -- until Clemson in this game -- that owned a defense 3.28 ppg better, and a Total YPR differential of +2.40. Ok, so what if we relaxed our stats and just looked at how single-digit underdogs did if they owned a defensive PPG differential greater than 0, and a Total YPR differential greater than 0? Then, we find those teams have gone a very solid 104-71-2 ATS in the Bowl games. That's one reason I love Clemson as a big underdog. Another is that the Tigers lost in the semi-finals last year to Alabama. And defending National Champions are an awful 8-29-2 ATS when priced from -2 to -6.5 points vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-19 ATS if their opponent covered its previous game by more than 3 points! With the Tigers in off a 30-3 blowout of Notre Dame, as a 10.5-point favorite, we'll grab the points with the Tigers. Take Clemson. NCAA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Texas +12.5 v. Georgia||Top||28-21||Win||100||3 h 21 m||Show|
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Georgia. The Bulldogs have the unenviable task of playing in the SEC Conference where they often have to get by Alabama in order to have a shot at a National Championship. They were unable to do it this year, and lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Title game. They're now double-digit favorites vs. Texas. But Bowl favorites of more than 7 points, off a loss in their previous game, are an awful 33-56 ATS since 1986. And if they're playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss that also failed to cover the point spread two games back, then our Bowl favorite is 2-8 ATS. Texas comes into this game off a 39-27 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. But double-digit Bowl underdogs off a loss in which they gave up 38+ points, have cashed 73%, including a perfect 5-0 ATS if their opponent was also off a loss. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Washington +7 v. Ohio State||Top||23-28||Win||100||17 h 9 m||Show|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Ohio State. The storyline for this game is that it is coach Urban Meyer's swan song. And, yes, he is the 2nd best coach in College Football (behind Nick Saban). But I'm still going to go against him today. Ohio State comes into this game off five straight wins. But the Buckeyes are an horrid 0-9 ATS since November 21, 2015 off five straight wins! Also, this Big 10 Championship team is unusual for the Big 10 Conference in that it has a poor defense. The Buckeyes have given up 25.6 ppg (a whopping 10.2 ppg more than Washington's defense gives up). Of course, over the decades, the best Big 10 Conference teams have generally been built around strong defenses and solid rushing attacks. So, in Bowl games, when you get a Big 10 team that is greatly outmatched on defense by its opponent, it's generally a good idea to fade that Big 10 team. Indeed, since 1980, Big 10 teams with a defense at least 6 points per game worse than their foe's defense have gone 8-21 ATS, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite, and also 0-6 ATS if the differential was minus 10.2 points (or worse) per game. Take the Huskies + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Kentucky +7 v. Penn State||Top||27-24||Win||100||13 h 10 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Penn State. Kentucky's defense gave up just 16.2 ppg this season. And that was against a largely-SEC Conference schedule. Anytime I can get an SEC Conference team, which has a great defense, as an underdog in a Bowl game, I'm going to strongly consider it. Indeed, SEC Conference dogs that didn't give up 16.4 ppg have cashed 76.1 percent since 1980 if they were getting 3 or more points. And if the line was 6 or more (which is, as of this writing, the number for this game, then our SEC defensive underdogs have gone 7-2 straight-up and a PERFECT 9-0 against the spread. Take Kentucky.
|01-01-19||LSU -7 v. Central Florida||Top||40-32||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
At 1 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Central Florida. Last year, the Knights went undefeated, with a 13-0 record. And it is trying to duplicate that feat this afternoon. But it's not easy to go undefeated in back-to-back years. Since 1980, five teams have tried, and only one found success -- the Nebraska Cornhuskers in 1994-1995. The other four teams (Miami, 1992; Miami, 2002; USC, 2005; and Florida State, 2014) all got destroyed in their bowl games, and failed to cover the point spread by a staggering 22.5 points per game. That doesn't bode well for Central Florida today. And neither does the fact that LSU comes into this game off a loss to Texas A&M. And one of the last things one should do in the Bowls is bet against an SEC Conference team off a loss to end its season. These teams play with a chip on their shoulder, and have rolled to a 70-45 ATS record in the Bowl games, including 38-19 ATS when they owned a .625 (or better) SEC Conference record. Take Louisiana State to blow out Central Florida. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||27-22||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Mississippi State. The Hawkeyes' defense gave up, on average, just 17.4 ppg this season. And one of the things I love to do in Bowl games is play on teams with very good defenses, in an underdog role. Since 1981, underdogs of 7+ points that didn't give up 20+ points per game have covered 59% of the time. And in match-ups between the Big 10 Conference and the SEC Conference, the Big 10 teams have gone 9-1 ATS since 1982 as underdogs of +4.5 or more points if they had a defense which didn't give up 20+ points per game. Take Iowa.
|12-31-18||Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10||Top||33-38||Win||100||40 h 32 m||Show|
At 3:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Missouri. All things being equal, I'll look to take points in Bowl games. And especially at the higher price points. Indeed, favorites of more than 7 points are an awful, including 93-122-4 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -14 points. And, yes, it's true that Missouri played great down the stretch, with four straight wins, while Oklahoma State lost its finale to TCU, and five of its last seven, overall. But Bowl favorites off 4+ wins have cashed just 39% over the last 39 years vs. opponents off a straight-up loss. Finally, Missouri is a horrid 9-21 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Missouri is off a straight-up and ATS win, and its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by more than six points! And Okie State is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against foes off a win! Take the Cowboys. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-31-18||Pittsburgh +5 v. Stanford||Top||13-14||Win||100||39 h 18 m||Show|
At 2 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Stanford. The Panthers come into this Sun Bowl game off back to back blowout losses. They fell, 24-3, to Miami in their final regular season game. And then they lost, 42-10, to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. But one of the things I love to do is in the post-season is play on teams off back to back blowout losses. For example, underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back defeats by 21+ points have gone 12-0 ATS. Moreover, underdogs that didn't score 14+ points in their final two games have also cashed 71% in the Bowls the past 39 years. Indeed, we just saw both of these two angles in play a couple days ago in the Independence Bowl when Duke smashed Temple, 56-27, as a 3.5-point underdog, after losing 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 to Wake Forest in their final two games to end the season. Additionally, this Sun Bowl game in El Paso has long been good to the underdog. Since 1980, they've cashed 90% (18-2 ATS) when catching 3.5 or more points. Finally, Pittsburgh falls into several of my favorite Bowl systems, with records of 93-38, 119-61 and 24-7 ATS. Take the Panthers. Blowout of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +6 v. Cincinnati||Top||31-35||Win||100||37 h 32 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Cincinnati. The Hokies had a mid-season swoon which saw them lose five of six games (and go 0-6 ATS). But they bounced back to defeat Virginia (34-31) and Marshall (41-20) to end their regular season. And both Virginia and Marshall won their Bowl games in Blowout fashion, by 28 and 18 points, respectively. It's true that the Bearcats went 10-2 this season. But against other Bowl teams they didn't step up their game, as they went 1-4 ATS in their five games vs. teams that qualified for a bowl game. And three of those five games were also played on Cincy's home field. In Cincy's two road games this season vs. teams playing in Bowl games, they went 0-2 SU and ATS, with losses to Central Florida (38-13) and Temple (24-17). And if we go back further, we find that the Bearcats have covered the point spread in just 11 of their last 37 games vs. foes with a .500 (or better) record. Finally, Cincy is 0-3 SU/ATS their last three Bowl games, and 0-5 ATS their last five Bowl games when priced between -2 and -8 points. Take the Hokies + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.
|12-29-18||Notre Dame +14 v. Clemson||Top||3-30||Loss||-126||57 h 17 m||Show|
At 4 pm, on Saturday, December 29, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson. This is a match-up of two undefeated teams, as Notre Dame is 12-0, while Clemson is 13-0. And I will generally take the underdog in match-ups between two undefeated teams, whether in the regular season, or the post-season. Indeed, since 1980, the underdog has covered 68% of the time when getting more than 6 points, if both teams had a record of 5-0 or better. And in Bowl games, such teams are a perfect 5-0 — and not just against the point spread. But they’re also 5-0 straight-up, even though the average point spread in those five games has been 8.4 points. That bodes very well for Notre Dame. As does the fact that undefeated teams (like Clemson), with a record of 5-0 or better, and off a point spread win, have covered just 42% of the time since 1980 when favored by more than 6 points vs. .666 (or better) opponents. Take the points with the Irish. Perfect 10 Club. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-29-18||Arkansas State v. Nevada +1.5||Top||13-16||Win||100||55 h 33 m||Show|
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack over Arkansas St. The Red Wolves went 8-4 this season, including 5-3 ATS in Sun Belt Conference play, while Nevada went 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference, and 7-5 overall. Nevada did lose its last game, 34-29, as a 14-point favorite at UNLV. But Bowl teams have cashed 80% over the last 15 years off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 8 points. Even worse for Arkansas State: Sun Belt teams have gone 20-52 ATS in non-conference games, if they weren't a losing team and weren't getting more than a point. Finally, Nevada falls into my very best Bowl system, which is 52-11 ATS, as well as 74-27 and 53-21 ATS Bowl angles. Take Nevada. NCAA Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-29-18||South Carolina v. Virginia +5.5||Top||0-28||Win||100||53 h 16 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over South Carolina. The Cavaliers come into this bowl game off back to back losses. Certainly, losing back to back games to end the regular season is not ideal. But not all losing streaks are equal. And, here, both of those defeats were on the road. And losing two road games is not as problematic as, say, losing two home games. Indeed, underdogs off back to back road losses are a super 73% ATS in the post-season since 1980, including 81% vs. foes off a straight-up win. Take Virginia + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-28-18||Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5||Top||26-28||Loss||-110||18 h 54 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Iowa State. This season, Mike Leach's Cougars were the #1 College Football team against the point spread. Washington State finished the season with a 10-2 ATS record, and its only point spread defeats were its eighth game of the season vs. California, and its final game of the season vs. Washington. In contrast, Iowa State was a pedestrian 6-6 ATS, and it ended the season with four straight ATS losses. Since 1991, teams off a point spread loss, but with a point spread win percentage of .666 (or better), have cashed 70.7% in the post-season vs. foes that didn't have a winning record against the spread. And Bowl teams that lost their previous four games to the point spread were under .500 ATS in their Bowl games, including 6-15-1 ATS in "win situation" games with point spreads ranging from +3 to -3. Take Washington State. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-28-18||Syracuse v. West Virginia +3||Top||34-18||Loss||-114||14 h 49 m||Show|
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Syracuse. Certainly, there are a lot of negatives on the side of West Virginia in this ballgame. The most obvious one, of course, is the absence of star quarterback Will Grier, who has chosen to bypass this game so he can prepare for the NFL draft. And then there is West Virginia's awful history in the Bowl games. Since 1982, it's 6-21 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes. And, finally, Big 12 Conference favorites are a poor 39-58 ATS as favorites in Bowl Games. With all that said, I still favor the Mountaineers. First, the fact that Grier won't play has been factored into this point spread, as WVU was favored by SEVEN points when the opening line was published, but it is now an UNDERDOG. And, second, teams like Syracuse, that come into their Bowl game off a 21-point (or greater) upset win, have covered just 23% since 2000 when they weren’t getting 3 or more points. Finally, the Mountaineers will have had several weeks to integrate their new quarterback, Jack Allison, into the offense. And it's not as if he will be going against a great pass defense which could take advantage of his inexperience. Syracuse ranked just 74th of 130 College Football teams this season in defensive yards per pass attempt. Take West Virginia + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-27-18||Vanderbilt v. Baylor +4||Top||38-45||Win||100||14 h 27 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Vanderbilt. Last season, the Commodores won just five games, and failed to make a bowl game. So, when it defeated its arch-rival, Tennessee, in its final regular season game, that was a huge win for this program, as it was its sixth win, overall, and enabled the Commodores to play in the Post-Season. But I’m not a fan of playing on favorites in Bowl games that missed out completely on the post-season the previous year because of a losing record. Generally speaking, a lot of these teams are just happy to be in a bowl game, so I prefer to not lay points with them. And such teams have covered just 40% of the time as a Bowl favorite over the last 20 years. Vanderbilt is also a poor 2-6 ATS in non-conference games after playing their rival, Tennessee. Finally, Baylor is a solid 19-9 ATS its last 28 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +7 points. Take the Bears. NCAA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-27-18||Duke +3.5 v. Temple||Top||56-27||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Temple. These two teams played almost mirror-opposite games to end their regular seasons. The Owls won 57-7 on the road at Connecticut, while Duke was upset at home, 59-7, as a 9.5-point favorite by Wake Forest. And Duke's loss continued a season-long trend which saw it cover the point spread as an underdog (5-0 ATS), but lose as a favorite (1-6 ATS). And if we go back further, we find that Duke is 27-9 its last 36 as an underdog, including 9-0 when playing with rest, and 7-0 ATS their last seven. That bodes well for the Blue Devils this afternoon, as they've been installed as an underdog in today's game. Even better: since 1990, teams off back to back losses, where they didn't score 44+ points combined in those two games, have gone 42-17 ATS in the post-season, including 7-0 ATS the past 3 years, if they weren't favored by more than a point, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Take the Blue Devils + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-22-18||Wake Forest v. Memphis -3.5||Top||37-34||Loss||-105||8 h 2 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Wake Forest. The Tigers come into this game off a 56-41 lost at Central Florida in their conference title game. Meanwhile, Wake Forest put up a whopping 59 points in its season finale at Duke, and defeated the Blue Devils by 52 (59-7). The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team which just scored 59 against an opponent which just gave up 56 points, and especially since that team has been installed as an underdog. But favorites (like Memphis), off a loss in which they gave up 44+ points, have covered 86% away from home vs. foes off a win, in which they scored 44+ points. Additionally, Memphis also falls into 206-138 and 24-5 ATS systems of mine, while Wake Forest falls into a negative 7-29 ATS system of mine based on its blowout win over Duke. Take Memphis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||Top||27-0||Loss||-115||13 h 16 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Ohio. The Aztecs come into this game off 3 straight losses, including an upset home loss to Hawaii, as an 18.5-point favorite to end the season. But San Diego State gets a chance at redemption in this game, and has been installed as an underdog vs. Ohio. I love the Aztecs here, as Bowl underdogs have covered 71% over the past 25 years as underdogs of +13 or less points, if they lost outright as a favorite of -13 or more points in their final regular season game. Additionally, Underdogs (or PK'em teams) have covered 64% in the post-season off back to back losses, when matched up against foes off back to back wins! Finally, Mid-American Conference teams (like Ohio) have covered just one of the last seven Bowl meetings vs. teams from the Mountain West Conference, and have failed to cover the point spread by an average of 14.42 ppg. Take the points with San Diego State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois v. UAB -1.5||Top||13-37||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Northern Illinois. Rod Carey doesn't have many blemishes on his coaching resume. But Bowl success has eluded him. Northern Illinois has lost its last five Bowl games (over the previous six seasons), by an average of 25.4 ppg, and they've all been defeats of 7+ points. Not surprisingly, the Huskies went 0-5 in those five Bowl games. It will be more of the same this season. Take UAB to blow out the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||Top||13-45||Loss||-110||15 h 18 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Appalachian State. This New Orleans Bowl game pits the Sun Belt Conference against Conference USA. We played against Middle Tennessee State in its last game -- the Conference USA Title Game -- which was a horrendous situational spot for it. Middle Tennessee had just defeated UAB, 27-3, to end its regular season (its fifth straight ATS win, at the time), but then had to play UAB in a re-match the very next week for the Conference Title. Not surprisingly, UAB upset the Blue Raiders in that revenge match, so Middle Tennessee comes into this game off a loss. But it's still 5-1 ATS, which compares favorably to Appalachian State's current 3-4 ATS run. Let's go against Appalachian State tonight, as .500 (or better) Sun Belt teams are a terrible 2-25 ATS as favorites vs. non-conference foes, if our Sun Belt team isn't off a SU/ATS win, and it doesn't own a worse W/L record than its foe. Take Middle Tennessee. NCAA Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||8 h 16 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Utah State. The Mean Green have lost their last five games to the point spread. But I love them to snap their streak this afternoon. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of 3.5 or more points have covered 83% in the post-season if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Additionally, North Texas has covered eight of its last 10 vs. non-conference foes (and 19 of its last 28). These two conferences (Conference USA + Mountain West) have met eight times in Bowl games over the past six season, with Conference USA dominating -- 6-2 ATS. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-08-18||UC Davis v. Eastern Washington -10||Top||29-34||Loss||-110||1 h 13 m||Show|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Washington Eagles minus the points over Cal Davis. Faithful followers know I love playing on College Football teams that can score. And Eastern Washington has been doing just that -- in spades. Last week, EWU put up 42 points in a 42-21 home win over Nicholls State. And it scored 74 points in a 74-23 blowout win over Portland State two games back. Then, three games back, it was a match-up against its opponent this afternoon -- Cal Davis. The two teams entered that game ranked among the Top 10 in the FCS, and Eastern Washington rolled up 669 yards to defeat Cal Davis for the seventh straight time, 59-20 (after trailing 10-0 to start the game). I don't see much changing, here in Cheney, Washington, this afternoon. Lay the points with Eastern Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-01-18||Northwestern +14.5 v. Ohio State||Top||24-45||Loss||-110||69 h 3 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Ohio State. Last week, the Buckeyes rolled over their rival, Michigan, with a 62-39 upset win. But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Ohio State on Saturday, as the Buckeyes fall into a negative system which is 0-21 ATS. What we want to do is play against any 8-point (or greater) favorite off an upset win, if they won that game by more than 10 points, and are now matched up against a .666 (or better) foe. Ohio State also falls into negative 27-66, 10-46 and 6-40 ATS systems. Take Northwestern + the points. NCAA Title Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-01-18||UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State||Top||27-25||Win||100||62 h 45 m||Show|
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Blazers and Blue Raiders actually met last week (also here in Murfreesboro), and the Blue Raiders won, 27-3, as a 3-point home underdog. That was also the 2nd straight defeat suffered by UAB, as it lost out of conference to Texas A&M two weeks ago. I look for UAB to avenge last week's loss, as winning teams have cashed 61% the last 39 years off 21-point (or worse) SU/ATS losses, if they're on the road against a Conference foe off a SU/ATS win. And if our team is off back to back SU/ATS losses, then our 61% system zooms to 77%. Take UAB. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||44 h 13 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Buffalo. The Bulls are 10-2 this season, while the Huskies are 7-5. But one team Buffalo has not been able to beat, of late, has been Northern Illinois. Indeed, the Huskies have won the last 11 meetings, including all 10 since the Bulls joined the MAC in 1999. (Buffalo did defeat the Huskies once, back in 1968). Even worse for the Bulls: in the MAC Conference Championship games, teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have gone 1-10 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage of .800 (or less). Finally, Northern Illinois enters this game off back to back upset losses, including a 28-21 defeat at Western Michigan 10 days ago. But NCAA teams off road upset losses have cashed 64% in Conference Title games. Take Northern Illinois + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +12||Top||24-17||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Notre Dame. The Trojans are off back to back SU/ATS losses, but they're an incredible 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if they also lost 2 games back. Grab the points with the Trojans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||North Texas -24.5 v. UTSA||Top||24-21||Loss||-102||12 h 16 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Texas San Antonio. The Roadrunners have scored a sum total of 10 points over their last three games. Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, home underdogs have cashed just 38 of 116 games over the past 24 years if they didn't score more than 23 points over their three previous games (and just 1 of 13 if they didn't score more than 10). Lay the big number with North Texas.
|11-24-18||Kansas State v. Iowa State -12||Top||38-42||Loss||-105||12 h 16 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State. This is a major revenge spot for Iowa State, which has lost the last 10 meetings to KSU. And the Cyclones fall into a 64-34 ATS revenge angle of mine which plays on certain big favorites with revenge. Additionally, the Cyclones are 7-1 ATS off a road loss, while K-State is a poor 1-5 ATS off an upset win over a Big 12 Conference rival. Lay the points.
|11-24-18||Illinois +16.5 v. Northwestern||Top||16-24||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Northwestern. Last week, Illinois was thoroughly embarrassed by Iowa, in a 63-0 beatdown. But off that whitewash, I look for Illinois to bounce back in their final game of the season. Indeed, since 1998, teams that failed to cover the point spread by 35+ points in their penultimate game of the season, have rebounded to cash 68% in their final game. Take Illinois. Big 10 Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -5||Top||3-24||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes were 10-0 last season, and ranked #2 in the country, when they went into Pittsburgh last season. The Panthers roiled Miami's season with a 24-14 upset win. The 'Canes then proceeded to lose their next two games, as well, including the ACC Title game to Clemson, and the Orange Bowl vs. Wisconsin. This season, it's Pittsburgh which has ACC Championship hopes, as the Panthers will play Clemson in the ACC Title game next week. So, even if Miami wins today, the Panthers can still win the Conference next week. Regardless, I love Miami in this revenge match, as the 'Canes fall into a 53-27 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were winning clubs the previous season. Even worse for Pitt: It's covered its last six games, and falls into a 51-23 ATS "Last Road Game" system of mine which goes against certain teams off ATS wins. Lay the points with Miami. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +10.5||Top||35-14||Loss||-107||7 h 14 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over the Georgia Southern Eagles. The Panthers have lost their last six games SU and their last five games ATS. But Georgia State falls into a 99-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Moreover, teams on a 5-game (or worse) point spread losing streak have gone 42-13 their last 55 vs. opponents on a point spread win streak (and home teams have gone 24-5 ATS their last 29 in this situation)! Take the Panthers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||Top||38-10||Loss||-110||10 h 50 m||Show|
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida. The Knights have won their last 23 games, dating back to last season, while South Florida has dropped four straight (following a 7-0 start). I love the Bulls as a two touchdown underdog on Friday, as underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 67.5% since 1980 in their final home game of the season, if they were playing a conference foe off back to back wins. Take the Bulls as the home dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-23-18||East Carolina v. Cincinnati -17||Top||6-56||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina. Cincy was blown out, 38-13, last week by Central Florida. But I love them to bounce back as a double-digit home favorite today, on Friday. Indeed, since 1988, teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 66.0% if they were favored by 16+ points, and lost their previous game by 16+ points. Lay the points with the Bearcats.
|11-23-18||Nebraska v. Iowa -8||Top||28-31||Loss||-102||6 h 34 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have won their last two games, but each of those were at home. And the Huskers were favored in both games. Now, they have to travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes in Iowa's final home game of the season. And Nebraska's an ugly 0-13 SU and 3-9-13 ATS as road underdogs of +3 or more points off back to back wins as a favorite. The Hawkeyes exploded for 63 points last week, in a 63-0 win at Illinois. And single-digit home favorites (or PK) have covered 62.8% since 1980 after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous week. Take Iowa.
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +11.5||Top||35-3||Loss||-110||37 h 9 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels + the points over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs blew out Arkansas, 52-6, last week, while their rival, Ole Miss, lost its fifth straight to the point spread, 36-29, at Vanderbilt. But the point spread has taken into account the poor play of Ole Miss, and it's already moved four points higher from the opening number on Sunday. We'll grab the points with the underdog, as we note that .200 (or better) home underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 76% off 5+ ATS defeats, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Take the points with the Rebels. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||UNLV v. Hawaii -5.5||Top||28-35||Win||100||31 h 5 m||Show|
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels upset San Diego St., 27-24, as a 24-point underdog last Saturday. That was the 2nd biggest upset on the road this season. Only Oregon State's 41-34 upset at Colorado, as a 26.5-point underdog, was a bigger upset. Not surprisingly, as a majority of teams do after pulling such upsets on the road, Oregon State failed to cover the spread the next week vs. USC. Indeed, since 1980, teams off a road upset as an underdog greater than 19 points, have covered just 35% their following game, including a paltry 18% if its opponent was off a point spread loss. And Hawaii is off an ATS loss, as it fell by 39 points to the Utah St. Aggies two weeks ago, as a 17.5-point underdog. The fact that Hawaii will play with an extra week of rest certainly won't hurt (Hawaii's cashed 64% at home since 1985 when playing with rest vs. an unrested opponent). Even worse for UNLV: it's just 2-14 ATS off a road win over a conference foe. Take Hawaii. Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina +7.5||Top||41-17||Loss||-110||13 h 49 m||Show|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern. Coastal Carolina comes into this game -- its final home game of the season -- off back-to-back home losses. But home dogs have cashed 57% since 1980 in their final home game of the season off back to back home defeats. Moreover, the Chanticleers will be playing, perhaps, their biggest home game ever in their school history this afternoon. With a win, Coastal Carolina will become bowl-eligible, and will qualify to play in a Post-season Bowl game for the very first time. With that huge motivation on its side, we'll grab the points with the Chanticleers today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||3-36||Loss||-106||10 h 19 m||Show|
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 10-0, and ranked #3 in the country. And they enter this game off a 29-point win over Florida State last weekend. But College Football favorites of 15 points or less (or PK) have covered just 31.3% away from home since 1980 in the regular season, if they were on an 8-game (or better) win streak, and off a point spread win. Take Syracuse.
|11-17-18||Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5||Top||52-51||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been a big money-burner in Las Vegas this season, as they're 4-6 ATS, including 2-5 ATS vs. Big 10 Conference foes. I don't expect things to change on this Saturday, as they will have to play a Maryland club desperate to earn a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a Bowl game. The Terrapins certainly had hoped to secure their 6th victory of the season in one of their two previous games, but they lost at home to Michigan State, and then last week at Indiana. The good news, though, for Maryland is that it's 11-2 ATS since 1980 in its last home game of the season, if it's off a SU/ATS loss, and facing a conference opponent (and 7-0 ATS if it's off back to back SU/ATS losses). Meanwhile, Ohio State has been awful vs. Big 10 Conference foes off back to back losses. Since 2006, it has gone 5-15 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points. Finally, the Buckeyes fall into a negative 40-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU/ATS wins. Take Maryland. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||Pittsburgh -6 v. Wake Forest||Top||34-13||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons pulled off a monstrous upset last week, when they went into Raleigh, and upended the NC State Wolfpack, 27-23, as a 19-point dog. Unfortunately, they're a horrid 1-12 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a line less than 8 points, if they're off an upset win. And, generally speaking, teams off upset wins as underdogs of +19 or more points don't do very well in their next game. And especially not at home, where they've cashed just 30 of 79. I look for Pitt to cover its sixth straight game today. Lay the points.
|11-17-18||Middle Tennessee State v. Kentucky -16||Top||23-34||Loss||-105||8 h 47 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Wildcats fall into my favorite College Football system, which is 89-39 ATS since 1980. And that angle plays on certain NCAA teams off blowout losses (Kentucky lost, 24-7, at Tennessee last Saturday). That was the 2nd straight blowout loss suffered by Kentucky (it lost, 34-17, to Georgia two weeks ago), which has seen its record fall to 7-3. But I love the 'Cats to bounce back vs. Middle Tennessee, as SEC Conference teams have covered 68.1% vs. non-conference foes, if our SEC team was off an upset conference loss, and also lost SU/ATS two games back. Even worse for the Blue Raiders: they've done very poorly vs. SEC Conference teams. This season, Middle Tenn was blown out by Vanderbilt (35-7) and Georgia (49-7); last year, it also got drubbed by Vandy (28-6). Dating back to 2009, it's 1-13 straight up vs. SEC Conference foes, and 4-10 ATS. Take Kentucky. Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-16-18||Boise State v. New Mexico +20||Top||45-14||Loss||-105||13 h 59 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State. The Broncos come into this game on a five-game win streak after upsetting Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, New Mexico has dropped its last five games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the cold Lobos, and bet on the hot Broncos, including a 42-24 defeat, as a 14-point underdog, at Air Force last Saturday. But since 1980, home teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 67% vs. foes on 5-game (or better) win streaks, if our home team was also off an ATS loss, while our road team was off an ATS win. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-16-18||Memphis v. SMU +7.5||Top||28-18||Loss||-110||13 h 53 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis. SMU enters this game off back to back double-digit wins over Houston (45-31) and Connecticut (62-50). Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll grab the points with SMU, as it falls into a system of mine which has cashed 63% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any home underdog off back to back wins, if it scored 90+ points combined over its two previous games. SMU needs just one more win to achieve eligibility to play in a post-season Bowl game. With this being its final home game of the season, I expect a supreme effort tonight. Take the Mustangs + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-14-18||Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois -6.5||Top||13-7||Loss||-105||13 h 53 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Miami-Ohio. The Huskies have won six straight, and covered their last three. And this will be their final home game of the season. They'll welcome Miami-Ohio to DeKalb, a week after the Red Hawks pulled an upset, at home, vs. Ohio U. But off that upset win, we'll fade Miami, as road teams have gone just 118-162 ATS off an upset conference win the previous week, if they're now playing a conference foe in its final home game of the season. Take the Huskies. NCAA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-14-18||Buffalo v. Ohio -2.5||Top||17-52||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Buffalo. The Bulls are 9-1 this season, yet find themselves installed as an underdog at 6-4 Ohio. That doesn't bode well, as .900 (or better) teams, at Game 10 forward, have cashed just 20% since 1980 as underdogs in the regular season vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .643. The Bobcats also fall into a 251-155 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain high-scoring teams at home (Ohio averages 39.3 ppg), as well as an 80-33 ATS angle. Take the Bobcats. MAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-13-18||Western Michigan v. Ball State +7.5||Top||41-42||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Western Michigan. Last year the Cardinals lost 55-3 to the Broncos. Ball State had last week off to prepare for this revenge game. And, since 1980, rested teams playing with revenge from a 42-point (or worse) defeat are 54-28 ATS, including 8-2 ATS if it was their final home game of the season. Take Ball State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-10-18||Clemson v. Boston College +20||Top||27-7||Push||0||33 h 31 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson. The Eagles are having a special season. Just three years removed from going winless in ACC Conference play, the Eagles enter this game with their highest ranking (#17) in 11 years, and are 4-1 in Conference games. Certainly, this is a tall task, as Clemson is 9-0 after blowing out Louisville, 77-16, last week, and ranked #2 in the country. But home teams with a .700 (or better) conference win percentage are 101-54 ATS vs. foes with a 4-0 (or better) conference record. And undefeated teams, with a 9-0 (or better) record are a soft 39-64-1 ATS when favored on the road by less than 22 points (or PK), including 4-17 ATS if they scored more than 50 points in their previous game. Take Boston College. ACC Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-10-18||LSU -11 v. Arkansas||Top||24-17||Loss||-107||15 h 42 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Arkansas. The Tigers lost last week, 29-0, at home to the Alabama Crimson Tide. But I love LSU to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA favorites playing away from home, that lost a home game the previous week, and failed to score 6 points in that defeat, have gone 13-0 ATS since 2004. LSU is a super 27-15 ATS on the conference road off a loss, including 6-0 ATS off a shutout defeat. Take the Tigers. SEC Favorite of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-10-18||Southern Miss v. UAB -12||Top||23-26||Loss||-115||15 h 37 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Southern Mississippi. The Blazers are 8-1 SU/ATS this season, and have won/covered each of their last seven games. If UAB was not at home, I would consider playing against it, as such teams with spectacular SU/ATS records this late in the season underperform away from home. But at home, they've actually covered more often than not over the last 39 seasons. Instead, we'll go against a Southern Miss team which pulled an upset over Marshall as a home underdog last Saturday. And double digit road underdogs have covered just 35 of 91 vs. conference foes off a double-digit cover, if our road dog entered the game off a home upset conference win its last time out. Take UAB.
|11-10-18||Miami-FL +3 v. Georgia Tech||Top||21-27||Loss||-120||14 h 8 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes + the points over Georgia Tech. Miami comes into this game off three straight upset losses, while Georgia Tech enters off back to back SU/ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice-cold Hurricanes, and on the red-hot Rambling Wreck. But NCAA teams off 3 straight upset losses have covered 73% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins over the past 38 years. Additionally, Miami falls into a 44-15 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that didn't score 45+ points combined in their previous three games (Miami scored just 39). Take the Hurricanes.
|11-10-18||South Florida +14.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||23-35||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points at Cincinnati. South Florida opened this season with seven straight wins before losing badly its last two games. Last week, the Bulls were annihilated, 41-15, at home by Tulane. And they were blown out two weekends ago, 57-36, by Houston. And they've failed to cover their last four games. But we'll still grab the points with South Florida, as .666 (or better) underdogs of 7+ points are 27-9 ATS off 4+ ATS defeats. Take the Bulls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-10-18||Baylor v. Iowa State -16.5||Top||14-28||Loss||-105||11 h 40 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Baylor. The Bears upset Oklahoma State, 35-31, as a 6-point home underdog last Saturday, while Iowa State blew out Kansas, 27-3. Unfortunately for Baylor, winning teams, off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) conference home dog, are a poor 25% ATS as road underdogs vs. conference foes off a double digit win. Take Iowa State.
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24 v. Alabama||Top||0-24||Push||0||11 h 40 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama. The Bulldogs are 6-3 this season, and own the 5th best defense (tied with Fresno State) in the country, as they're giving up just 12.33 ppg. Let's grab the points with Mississippi State, as underdogs are 261-187 ATS if they give up less than 13.5 points per game, at Game 6 forward. Take the Bulldogs.
|11-10-18||Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5||Top||10-41||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue. The Boilermakers are having a solid season. They're 5-4 this year, but, if truth be told, have had a pretty favorable schedule. The Boilers have played just three of their nine games on the road. And those three games were against Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan State. Purdue won the games vs. Nebraska and Illinois. But those two schools are 6-12 combined this year. Moreover, Nebraska is 1-10 ATS its last 11 lined home games, while Illinois is 5-14 ATS its last 19 home games. Not surprisingly, Purdue lost its only tough game on the road, as it fell by 10 points at Michigan State (well, at least, we weren't surprised, as we had a big play on Michigan State in that game). Minnesota, notwithstanding its 24-point road loss last week, will give Purdue all it can handle, now that it's back home. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 SU/ATS at home this season, and have won 28 of their last 40 home games. And the Gophers also fall into an 86-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams (like Minnesota) off blowout losses. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-09-18||Louisville +21.5 v. Syracuse||Top||23-54||Loss||-110||25 h 23 m||Show|
At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Syracuse. Last week, the Cardinals were shellacked, 77-16, by Clemson. That was the most points given up by an ACC school in 23 years, and was the 2nd worst defeat by a team in an ACC Conference game in the last 39 seasons. It was also Louisville's 4th SU/ATS loss in a row, and the 2nd straight game that Louisville failed to cover by 23+ points. This last fact will no doubt keep a lot of bettors away from the Cardinals side in this game. But it shouldn't, as road teams off back to back SU/ATS losses, in which they failed to cover by 20+ points, have actually covered the spread more often than not -- including 34-20-2 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. The Cardinals also fall into a 96-56 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Take Louisville + the points. NCAA Football High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-03-18||USC -15.5 v. Oregon State||Top||38-21||Win||100||20 h 28 m||Show|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Oregon St. The Beavers pulled off a stunning win in overtime last week, when it roared back from a 31-3 deficit to defeat Colorado, 41-34. Oregon State was a 26.5-point underdog in that game, so that upset ranked as one of the 31 biggest upsets of the past 39 seasons. Generally speaking, I'll look to go against such teams in their next game, as they often will suffer letdowns following such massive victories. And such teams have been especially weak against .500 (or better) opponents, as they covered just 22% of those games. It's true that the Trojans come into this game on a 2-game losing streak. But USC is 7-2 ATS since 2001 off back to back losses. This will be a blowout. Lay the points with USC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-03-18||Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -23||Top||3-45||Win||100||18 h 57 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Louisiana Tech. Last Friday, Louisiana Tech went into Florida Atlantic, and upset the Owls, 21-13, as a 3.5-point underdog. Can it pull off back to back road upsets? It's not likely, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 38% since 1980 vs. non-conference foes, if they upset a conference foe on the road in their previous game. Lay the points with Mississippi State.
|11-03-18||Notre Dame v. Northwestern +10.5||Top||31-21||Win||100||18 h 42 m||Show|
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are undefeated, with an 8-0 record, while Northwestern is just 5-3. But both teams are equal in Las Vegas, as each has a 4-4 ATS record. We'll go against Notre Dame, as undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 (or better), have cashed just 50 of 131 on the road vs. opponents that owned a .500 (or better) ATS win percentage. Also, Northwestern's a solid 21-8 ATS as a home underdog priced from +7 to +13.5 points. Take the Wildcats.
|11-02-18||Colorado +3 v. Arizona||Top||34-42||Loss||-110||21 h 31 m||Show|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Arizona. The Buffaloes were inexplicably upset by Oregon State last Saturday, 41-34, in overtime, after leading the game by a score of 31-3! And that was Colorado's 3rd straight loss, overall. Certainly, last week's defeat was a gut-wrenching game, as it matched the largest blown lead in school history. But I fully expect Mike MacIntyre's men to rebound on Friday. For technical support, consider that road underdogs of +6 points or less have cashed 64% over the last 38 years off 3+ losses, if they were upset in their previous game. Additionally, Arizona's a horrid 0-10 ATS since 1991 as a favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win. Take the Buffaloes. Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-02-18||Pittsburgh v. Virginia -7||Top||23-13||Loss||-117||17 h 29 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Panthers upset the Duke Blue Devils, 54-45, last week, as a 2.5-point home underdog. And they'll now try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the 23rd-ranked Cavaliers, who are on a 3-game win streak. Unfortunately for the Panthers, road teams off an upset win as a home dog have cashed just 34% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road team wasn't getting more than 10 points. Take Virginia to blow out Pitt. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-31-18||Ball State +19.5 v. Toledo||Top||13-45||Loss||-109||2 h 43 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo. Ball State was blown out by 38 points (as a 10-point underdog) in its last game. And it lost by 22 points (as a 2.5-point dog) in its game two weeks ago. Thus, over its two previous games, it failed to cover the spread by a combined 47.5 points. But the Cardinals fall into a 64-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses by 19+ points. And Ball State is also 55-26 ATS on the road since Oct. 29, 2005, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +16 to +19.5 points. Take Ball State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-27-18||Florida International v. Western Kentucky +4||Top||38-17||Loss||-110||33 h 58 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International. Last week, the Hilltoppers suffered, perhaps, the most excruciating loss of the season (a game which really needed to be SEEN to be believed). Indeed, the Hilltoppers actually led 34-27 with 1:37 left in regulation. But Old Dominion scored a tying TD with nine seconds left, and then a WINNING Field Goal with no time (literally) on the clock, as they game had seemingly ended three plays before. But because of rules violations on three successive plays (including a game-winning FG attempt by Western Kentucky), there were three untimed downs after the clock had expired. And on the 3rd untimed down, it was Florida International which kicked the game-winner. That was the Hilltoppers' 3rd straight loss and, for some, it might be a crushing loss. But this is actually a perfect spot for Mike Sanford's team to bounce back, as it's homecoming night for Western Kentucky, so the campus will be excited, and the team will be motivated. Indeed, coach Sanford was asked if he felt his team was snake-bit after last week's loss, and he said, 'no,' that he 'doesn't believe in karma' but rather 'hard work' which his players continue to exude. Now, it's true that the Panthers are 3-0 in Conference USA, while the Hilltoppers are 0-3 within the Conference. But, as discussed above, the Hilltoppers were less than two minutes away from a victory (and point spread cover) last week. And, for the season, the Hilltoppers are 4-3 ATS, with several close losses (four of their six losses were by a mere three points, so they certainly have not played badly). One of the things I love to do, at Conference Game 4 forward, is play on home teams winless in Conference play, if they were matched up against an opponent which was unbeaten in conference play, and the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 10 points or less. Over the last 38 seasons, our home teams have covered 80% of the time. Moreover, Western Kentucky is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 or less points since November 2009. Take the Hilltoppers. CUSA Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-27-18||NC State -2 v. Syracuse||Top||41-51||Loss||-103||24 h 58 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse. The Wolfpack were blown out by Clemson, 41-7, last week, which was their first loss of the season. However, I look for them to bounce back and get a road victory this evening. Not only have coach Dave Doreen's Wolfpack won each of the last four meetings vs. Syracuse, but they're also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a road favorite. And, going back to Doreen's stint as head coach of Northern Illinois, his teams have gone 12-2-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-0-1 ATS off a loss. Finally, winning road favorites have gone 152-112 ATS since 1993 off a conference loss by 10+ points, if they also failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in that loss. Take NC State. NCAA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-27-18||Purdue v. Michigan State -1.5||Top||13-23||Win||100||25 h 25 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Purdue. Last week, we played on the Boilermakers as a double-digit home underdog vs. then-unbeaten Ohio State, and easily got the cash when Purdue romped over the Buckeyes by 29 points. So, let’s put Purdue’s win into context. Since 1980, there have been 907 games played by teams, like Ohio State, that were undefeated after 7 or more games. Of those 907 games, there were only three other times those unbeaten teams were blown out, and failed to cover the point spread by 41 points! Interestingly, all three of those teams that pulled off those stunning victories were favored in their next game — by 4, 7 and 13.5 points. But all three of those teams lost outright — by 24, 7 and 24 points — thus failing to cover the spread by an average of 26.5 points! A similar result should occur here. Take Michigan State to blow out Purdue. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.
|10-27-18||Clemson v. Florida State +17||Top||59-10||Loss||-105||19 h 8 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson. The Tigers enter this contest on a 7-game win streak, including 63-3 and 41-7 blowout wins over their last two foes (Wake Forest, NC State). Unfortunately, NCAA favorites (or PK) off back to back stellar defensive performances, where they held their two opponents to less than 10 points, are a poor 29-62-1 ATS away from home since 1982 vs. winning teams off a SU/ATS win. That's one reason I love the Seminoles. Another is that Willie Taggart's teams (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State) have excelled as underdogs (or as a small favorite of -3 or less points) with him as the head coach, including 31-14-1 ATS their last 46 vs. conference foes. Take Florida State. NCAA High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-26-18||Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||21-13||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Florida Atlantic. The Owls were upset, 31-7, last Saturday on the road by the Marshall Thundering Herd. They've now been installed as a home favorite vs. LA Tech. Unfortunately, home favorites of 7 or less points are an awful 108-179 ATS off an upset road loss. Even worse: Florida Atlantic is a poor 27-44 ATS at home, including 1-8 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -7 points. Take Louisiana Tech. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-25-18||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +10||Top||14-34||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles + the points over Appalachian St. The Mountaineers are 5-1, and have not lost since their opening day, overtime loss, at Penn State. Today, they'll take on the 6-1 Eagles, who routed New Mexico St. last weekend, 48-31. For the season, the Eagles are outscoring their foes, on average, by a score of 31.0 to 19.3. But at home, those numbers improve to 36.7 ppg, on offense, and just 13.2 ppg, on defense. Additionally, Georgia Southern falls into a very good 88-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, at home, off a win. And, finally, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of more than 2 points are 239-167 ATS off back to back wins, if they average more than 29.5 points per game on offense. Take Georgia Southern. NCAA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-25-18||Baylor +14 v. West Virginia||Top||14-58||Loss||-110||10 h 26 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over West Virginia. The Mountaineers come into tonight's game off a 30-14 loss to Iowa State, which was WVU's first defeat of the season (after starting with 5 straight wins). One of the things I love to do when betting College Football games is to go against certain teams off their initial loss of the season, if they had a 5-0 (or better) record prior to the defeat. These teams, more often than not, fail to bounce back from their first loss of the season. And Baylor is a play out of a super 97-47 ATS system of mine which goes against such teams (like WVU) off their first loss. Even worse for the Mountaineers: they have a history of not rebounding off upset losses, as they're 1-9 ATS off an upset loss, generally, and also 2-15 ATS their last 17 off an upset loss by 10+ points. Take Baylor. Thursday Night Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-23-18||Troy -12.5 v. South Alabama||Top||38-17||Win||100||14 h 27 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over South Alabama. The Jaguars come into tonight's game off a blowout win, at home, vs. Alabama State. Unfortunately, the Jaguars are an awful 1-9 ATS off a point spread win. And they're just 17-32 ATS in Conference games. Meanwhile, Troy State is a solid 15-6 ATS its last 21 road games. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||Ohio State v. Purdue +13||Top||20-49||Win||100||1 h 19 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Ohio State. The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked 2nd in the country with a 7-0 record. But they've been ice-cold in Las Vegas, as they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games. In contrast, Purdue has been paying off its bettors, as the Boilermakers have covered each of their last four games, and have won their last three straight-up. Even more impressive is the fact that the Boilermakers have covered the spread by double-digits in each of their last three games. And home teams have gone 147-90 ATS in conference games, if they weren't favored by 6 or more points, and they're off back to back wins, in which they covered the spread by double-digits. Take Purdue + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||Oregon v. Washington State -2.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||29 h 23 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Oregon. We played on Oregon as a home underdog vs. Washington, and got the $$$$ when Oregon won outright, 30-27, in overtime. But off that upset win, we will fade Oregon against the once-beaten (5-1) Cougars. A key factor for me in this game is that Washington State had last week off, so it will be well-rested. And it's awfully difficult to win back to back games vs. excellent teams (and especially if one's opponent is well rested). Indeed, since 1980, rested .750 (or better) NCAA Teams have cashed 67.7% since 1980 against foes off an upset win as a home underdog vs. another .750 (or better) foe. Take Washington State minus the points. Pac-12 Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||UTSA v. Southern Miss -16||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||19 h 52 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Texas San Antonio. The Golden Eagles laid an egg at North Texas last week, as they scored just seven points in a 30-7 defeat. And that was Southern Miss's second straight loss (it also lost to SEC power Auburn, 24-13, two weeks ago). But after being installed as an underdog each of the past two weeks, Southern Miss will no doubt be thrilled to play the Roadrunners, here, in Hattiesburg on Saturday evening. After all, Southern Miss is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS as double-digit favorites this season. Even better: over the last 39 seasons, in conference games, NCAA home favorites of 16+ points have covered 68% off conference defeats by 16+ points, if they also lost two games back. The Golden Eagles are also 60% ATS as double-digit favorites off a loss over the past 39 seasons. Take Southern Miss. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||Wake Forest +10 v. Florida State||Top||17-38||Loss||-105||15 h 22 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida St. Both of these two ACC Conference rivals are 3-3 this season. And each comes into this afternoon's game off straight-up losses. But the nature of those defeats could not be more different. Florida State fell by a mere point, 28-27, to Miami-Fla, while Wake Forest was walloped, 63-3, by Clemson. I look for Wake Forest to bounce back off that 60-point loss, as road underdogs have cashed 63.8% over the last 39 seasons if they lost by more than 40 points in their previous game, and were playing an opponent also off a loss. This system is already 3-0 this season, including a 45-20 win last week by Louisiana Monroe +6.5 over Coastal Carolina following Monroe's 70-21 blowout loss at the hands of Ole Miss. The Demon Deacons will bounce back in a similar fashion. Take Wake Forest.
|10-20-18||Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +4||Top||35-10||Loss||-110||25 h 56 m||Show|
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan. The Chippewas are off 3 straight losses, and are winless in Mid-American Conference play. Moreover, they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games. Meanwhile, the Broncos come into this afternoon's game with an undefeated Mid-American Conference record, and have won five straight, overall. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Broncos against the ice-cold Chippewas. But consider that single-digit Mid-American Conference home underdogs, off back-to-back ATS losses, have covered 72.9% since November 1999, if they were off a straight-up loss, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Grab the points with Central Michigan. MAC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||Utah State v. Wyoming +14.5||Top||24-16||Win||100||14 h 23 m||Show|
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Utah State. On the surface, these two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Aggies are 5-1, after winning each of their last five games. Even more impressive is the fact that the Aggies have covered the point spread in all six of their games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 2-5, on the heels of three straight losses. And they've failed to cover their last six games. Of course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team off 6 ATS wins vs. an opponent off 6 ATS losses. But as Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast." For example, consider that teams off 5+ ATS defeats have gone 60-36 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins! And teams off 6+ ATS wins have covered just six of 20 on the road vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Wyoming.
|10-20-18||Virginia v. Duke -6.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-115||22 h 25 m||Show|
At 12:30, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Virginia. The Cavaliers upset Miami-Fla last week, 16-13, as a 7-point home underdog. We had a play on Virginia, so we were not surprised by the result. Virginia is now 4-2 on the season, and will look for a second straight upset, here, against the 6-1 Blue Devils. But I look for a letdown on Tobacco Road by Virginia, as .666 (or better) teams have cashed just 20% on the road vs. winning conference foes, if our road team was off an upset win, as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, over another conference foe. Take Duke. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||Oklahoma v. TCU +8.5||Top||52-27||Loss||-115||22 h 54 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs enter this game off an upset loss to Texas Tech (as a 7.5-point favorite), while Oklahoma also enters off an upset loss to Texas. The Horned Frogs have been installed as a sizable home underdog, notwithstanding the fact that their defense is more than 7 points better than Oklahoma's defense. And one of the things I love to do is play on .500 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points, off an upset loss, that own a defense which gives up at least 6.5 points less than their opponent's defense. Such teams have covered 73.1% since 1982. Even better: TCU plays with revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of the Sooners last season (including a loss in the Big 12 Conference Championship game). But College teams playing at home with revenge from an NCAA post-season defeat have cashed a solid 60%. Grab the points with TCU. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-19-18||Colorado State v. Boise State -24||Top||28-56||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Colorado State. Boise comes into this game off rare (for it) back to back ATS losses. But the Broncos are 143-105 ATS their last 248. And they're 18-11 ATS off back to back ATS losses. Finally, they've won seven straight meetings vs. the Rams, and have gone 5-2 ATS in those games. Lay the points with Boise. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-13-18||Miami-FL v. Virginia +7||Top||13-16||Win||100||44 h 45 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Miami-Fla. Virginia had last weekend off to rest and prepare for this game following its blowout, 35-21 loss at NC State. And that was Virginia's first game this season in which it failed to cover the point spread. I love the Cavaliers to bounce back on Saturday, as it's been installed as a home underdog. And Virginia's performed much better over the years as a home dog (12-5 Last 17) than as a home favorite (5-16-3 ATS its last 24), so that bodes well for it in this game. As does the fact that the underdog is 12-2 in this series' last 14 meetings. Indeed, last year, Virginia was a 20.5-point underdog and actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half. But Miami stormed back late to win by 16, 44-28 (though it failed to cover). Finally, single-digit ACC home underdogs off a straight-up loss are 106-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) conference foes. Take Virginia.
|10-13-18||West Virginia -6.5 v. Iowa State||Top||14-30||Loss||-110||44 h 33 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State. The 6th-ranked Mountaineers are 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS, and have been installed as a road favorite in this game. I love the Mountaineers to blow out the Cyclones, as Iowa State comes into this game off an outright win as a double-digit underdog at Oklahoma State last week. And, since 1980, teams off SU wins as a double-digit underdog the previous week have cashed just 40.9% when matched up against an opponent off a win. This system is already a perfect 3-0 this season, and one of its wins was, coincidentally, in West Virginia's last road game, at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders had blown out Oklahoma State, 41-17, as a 14.5-point underdog the previous week, and then came home to face WVU. Unfortunately, they suffered a letdown, and the Mountaineers won (and covered) in a 42-34 victory. Same result should occur here, in Ames, Iowa. Take West Virginia. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-13-18||New Mexico State v. UL-Lafayette -7.5||Top||38-66||Win||100||42 h 34 m||Show|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin Cajuns minus the points over New Mexico State. We played on the Aggies last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Liberty Flames, 49-41, as a 4-point home underdog. However, I often like to go against teams off upset wins, as they are susceptible to letdowns. And that, I believe, will happen here, as New Mexico State falls into a negative 22-72 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams, on the road, off upset wins. Meanwhile, Lafayette checks in off a 42-27 blowout of Texas State, and falls into a 136-67 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins. Finally, the Aggies are an awful 7-43 straight-up and 18-32 ATS as a road underdog in non-conference games. Lay the points with the Cajuns.
|10-13-18||New Mexico v. Colorado State +1||Top||18-20||Win||100||40 h 8 m||Show|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over New Mexico. Last week, we played on the Lobos in their big upset win, as an 8-point underdog, at UNLV. The Lobos won that game, 50-14, so they covered by 44 points. Off that win, the Lobos have been installed as a PK against the Rams. But teams off upset wins, in which they covered by 39+ points, have cashed just 19.2% since 1980 away from home when PK'em or favored. And the Lobos, themselves, are 0-4 ATS as a road favorite (or PK) off an upset win. Take Colorado St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-13-18||Central Florida v. Memphis +5||Top||31-30||Win||100||60 h 28 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida. The Knights are currently riding an 18-game win streak, and are ranked among the Top 10 in the Country, with a 5-0 record this season. But this is going to be a difficult game to win. One factor going against them is the fact that they’re on the road after playing their four previous games at home. And Central Florida covered the spread in each of their last three games vs. Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh and SMU. Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 38 of 107 games following three straight ATS wins at home, including 8-27 their last 35 when they owned a win percentage greater than .850. Another factor on the side of Memphis is the fact that it will be playing with revenge from a 62-55 loss to the Knights in last season’s AAC Conference Title game. And winning teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat have cashed 62.8% since 1990 when installed as an underdog. Take Memphis + the points. AAC Conference Game of the Year. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.
|10-13-18||Washington v. Oregon +3.5||Top||27-30||Win||100||40 h 37 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Washington. The Huskies have rebounded nicely off their opening week loss to Auburn, and are now 5-1 on the season. But this is a major step-up in class from the types of opponents (e.g., Arizona St., BYU, UCLA) that Washington has seen over the last few weeks. Indeed, but for a senseless, last-minute collapse vs. Stanford, the Ducks would be 5-0, and ranked, like Washington, among the Top 10. So, this is a huge game, as it will go a long way toward determining the winner of the Pac-12 North Division. The Ducks have a big advantage in that they had last week off to rest and prepare for this game. And Oregon falls into a super 70-22, 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in Conference games, as well as a 101-48 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded squads (Oregon lost 38-3 last season, so is playing with revenge). Finally, in games between winning teams (that were also both winning teams last season), home teams playing with revenge from a 33-point (or worse) defeat have gone 57-29 ATS since 1998, including 10-2 ATS when playing with rest. Take the Ducks.
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU +7.5||Top||16-36||Win||100||40 h 37 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Georgia. We played on Florida last week in a home dog role vs. LSU, and got the $$$ when the Gators upset the previously-unbeaten Tigers, 27-19. This week, however, I look for LSU to turn the tables on the undefeated Bulldogs. Indeed, winning teams have cashed 60.0% ATS as conference home underdogs off an upset conference loss on the road the previous week since 1980. Finally, LSU is 15-4-1 as an underdog of +3 or more points off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS their last 10. Take LSU.
|10-13-18||Baylor +14 v. Texas||Top||17-23||Win||100||40 h 36 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Texas. The Longhorns have reeled off 5 straight wins following their upset loss at Maryland to start the 2018 season. Last week, Texas' victim was Oklahoma, which entered the game undefeated, with a 5-0 record. But Texas upset the Sooners, as a 7-point underdog. And now they'll go for their sixth straight win, at home. vs. the 4-2 Bears. Let's grab the points with the Bears as winning, double-digit underdogs have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. conference foes off an upset conference win. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-13-18||Florida v. Vanderbilt +7.5||Top||37-27||Loss||-115||36 h 4 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Florida. We played on the Florida Gators last week in their upset win, at home, vs. the then-undefeated LSU Tigers. However, off that upset win, I look for a letdown this Saturday in Nashville. Indeed, one of the things I love to do is go against college football favorites away from home that upset a previously undefeated foe, if they're now matched up against a .500 (or better) opponent coming off a loss. Since 1982, such teams have covered just 25.4 percent of the time. And, yes, it's true that Florida has dominated this series, including winning the last 13 straight-up here in Nashville. But the Commodores are 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge vs. opponents off an upset win. Take Vanderbilt. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-12-18||Air Force v. San Diego State -10.5||Top||17-21||Loss||-118||46 h 39 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Air Force. We played on SDSU last week as a huge underdog at Boise State, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset win. Some may look for a letdown on Friday night, but not me. Indeed, winning home favorites of -7+ points, off outright wins as 8-point (or greater) road underdogs the previous week, have cashed 18 in a row vs. losing teams! Meanwhile, Air Force is a horrid 11-24 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-8 ATS its last nine. Lay the points with San Diego State. Perfect 10 Club. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||Liberty v. New Mexico State +4.5||Top||41-49||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Liberty. The Aggies had last week off following their road win at UTEP two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Flames are 2-2 this season with an upset win in their opener vs. Old Dominion, and a 52-43 road upset win at the New Mexico Lobos last weekend. The Flames were a 7-point underdog last week, and one of the things I love to do is go against .500 (or worse) teams in back-to-back road games, if they won as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and were playing a rested opponent. Since 1980, our road teams have cashed just 37%. Take New Mexico State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||UTSA +1 v. Rice||Top||20-3||Win||100||27 h 42 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over Rice. The Roadrunners have yet to cash a ticket in Las Vegas this season, but it's not because they've been playing exceptionally poorly. Rather, their games were mostly point spread coin-flips that just happened to result in losses. Indeed, the Roadrunners failed to cover their last four games by 1, 3, 3.5 and 0.5 points (an average of 2 points per game). So, while some will stay away from the Roadrunners for their lack of point spread success, I'm not concerned. Meanwhile, the Rice Owls have been installed as a small favorite, even though they were underdogs of +25, +17, +13.5 and +28 points in their four games vs. Division 1 foes this season. And teams that were favored (or PK) at home vs. conference foes off a win, after being double-digit underdogs in each of their three previous game, have cashed just 37% the past 38 years. Take the Roadrunners.
|10-06-18||Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13||Top||33-52||Win||100||25 h 43 m||Show|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Old Dominion. The Owls lost a heartbreaker last week when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown (and a subsequent 2-point conversion) on a 4th-and-goal play with less than a minute left in the game. That lowered the Owls' road record this season to 0-3, but it returns home this weekend, where it is undefeated on the season (with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman). Here, Florida Atlantic will welcome Old Dominion, which is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with a negative 15.67 scoring margin, and a negative 15.5 point spread differential. That doesn't bode well for Old Dominion. And neither does the fact that Conference USA favorites of -8.5 (or more) points are an awesome 31-10 ATS off an upset loss. Finally, Florida Atlantic falls into 71-29 and 81-32 ATS systems of mine that go against certain conference foes with a losing record. Take the Owls.
|10-06-18||New Mexico +8 v. UNLV||Top||50-14||Win||100||41 h 57 m||Show|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV. Last week, the Lobos were upset, 52-43, at home by the Liberty Flames. So, they'll look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon in their Mountain West Conference opener. Since 1980, road underdogs off an upset loss the previous week have covered 67.8% in their conference openers. Both of these teams are saddled with injuries at the quarterback position. UNLV, though, should suffer more by losing Armani Rogers, than will New Mexico for its injuries. The Rebels' top QB has excelled this season, with 857 combined yards and 12 TDs (369 passing yards, 488 rushing yards). He'll be replaced by sophomore Max Gilliam, who doesn't have Rogers' explosive speed to make big plays. In contrast, New Mexico's Sheriron Jones might be the Lobos' 3rd string QB, but he was great last week in relief. The Lobos were down 42-10 at the half to Liberty, but he threw for 312 yards and four TDs in slightly more than 30 minutes of action to bring the Lobos back in an eventual 9-point loss. New Mexico has also cashed 75% over the last 38 years off an upset home loss. Take the Lobos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||LSU v. Florida +3||Top||19-27||Win||100||38 h 26 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over LSU. I love playing on home underdogs with great defenses. For the season, Florida has held its opponents to just 14 points per game. And home underdogs, at Game 6 forward, that have a defense which doesn't give up more than 14 ppg have gone 45-22 ATS vs. undefeated teams. That's one reason I favor the Gators. Another is that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record have cashed just 64 of 159 vs. .666 (or better) foes. Take Florida. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||Miami-OH +5 v. Akron||Top||41-17||Win||100||37 h 55 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Akron. The Red Hawks have covered 12 of 16 conference road games, including a 38-23 blowout win at Bowling Green two weeks ago. Last Saturday, though, Miami lost a 1-point game, at home, to Western Michigan. But I love the Red Hawks to bounce back on the road on Saturday, as road teams have cashed 65.3% in Mid American Conference games off a single-digit home loss the previous week. Take Miami-Ohio + the points. Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||San Diego State +14 v. Boise State||Top||19-13||Win||100||36 h 2 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State. The Aztecs have won three straight, and had last weekend off to prepare for this big Mountain West game at Boise State. Last season, Boise went 7-1 inside the Conference and won the title game. San Diego State was 6-2, including a 31-14 upset loss, at home. So, this is a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Since 1999, rested Mountain West conference teams have cashed 75.8% away from home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting 12+ points. That bodes well for San Diego St. Also, it's true that Boise has been generally very strong against the spread over the years. But the reality is that it has beat up on the really bad teams (e.g., 58-35 ATS vs. losing teams), or teams playing poorly (e.g., 51-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss), while it has done comparatively worse vs. better teams. Indeed, Boise has gone 0-12 ATS the last 4 seasons when favored vs. winning teams off a win. Take the Aztecs. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||Maryland v. Michigan -17||Top||21-42||Win||100||35 h 4 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland. The Wolves came back from a 17-0 deficit at Northwestern last week, and eked out a 3-point win. Last week's performance will keep a lot of bettors away from laying double-digits this week with Michigan. Indeed, the current number, as of this writing, has come down from the opener. Generally speaking, it's been profitable to back double-digit favorites that failed to cover the spread by 10+ points as a double digit favorite the previous week, if they were now playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win (which Maryland is). Since 1980, such double-digit favorites have cashed 57%. This will be a rout. Lay the points with Michigan. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||Eastern Michigan +4 v. Western Michigan||Top||24-27||Win||100||37 h 59 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Western Michigan. The Eagles lost a tough game in overtime last week, at home, vs. Northern Illinois. That lowered EMU's Mid-American Conference record to 0-2 on the season. But I love the Eagles to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA Underdogs of +3 or more points, off an upset conference loss, and an 0-2 conference record, have cashed 61% since 1980. And, although there's nothing wrong with 61%, we can increase our system to 70% if we don't go against any team playing with revenge. In this series, Eastern Michigan has lost the last four meetings. The revenger is 13-7 ATS in this series, and the revenger has also cashed 61% of Mid-American Conference games the past 11 years if it was off a home upset loss. Finally, Eastern Michigan falls into 53-15, 84-48 and 54-21 ATS systems that play on certain teams off losses. Take the Eagles + the points. Mid American Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|10-06-18||Tulane v. Cincinnati -7||Top||21-37||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Tulane. The Green Wave shocked the Memphis Tigers, 40-24, last week as a 14.5-point home underdog to move their record to 2-3 on the season. Unfortunately for Tulane, losing teams rarely pull off two big upsets in a row, and especially not when they're playing on the road against really good teams. Here, Tulane is tasked with handing the Bearcats their first defeat of the season. Cincy is 5-0 straight-up (and 4-1 ATS), including wins over UCLA, Miami-Ohio, Ohio U. and UConn. And, since 1980, underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread just 25% of the time on the road vs. .850 (or better) foes, if they were off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater) underdog. Take Cincinnati.
|10-06-18||Oklahoma -7 v. Texas||Top||45-48||Loss||-110||18 h 55 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas. We played on Oklahoma last week, and were rewarded with a 66-33 victory over Baylor. And we also played against Texas, and got the cash with Kansas State, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog. Once again, we will play on Oklahoma and against Texas. The Sooners are averaging a whopping 48.6 ppg, and fall into a super NCAA regular season 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any single-digit favorite (or PK) off a SU/ATS win, in which they scored 60+ points, if they are playing a at home, or on a neutral field. Since 1980, this angle has cashed 72%. Take Oklahoma to blow out the Longhorns.
|10-06-18||Illinois v. Rutgers +5.5||Top||38-17||Loss||-109||18 h 55 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Illinois. Illinois has started the season 2-2 straight-up, and 2-2 ATS. Yet this will be its first road game of the season, as it had the huge benefit of opening with four straight home games. I don't like playing on road teams this late in the season, and especially not when installed as a favorite and/or they don't have a winning record. Indeed, since 1980, road favorites, with a .500 (or worse) record, have cashed just 33% of their conference games, if it was Game 5 forward, and also their first road game of the season. Even worse for Illinois: it's been an unreliable favorite, priced from -3 to -10.5 points, with an 18-38 ATS record since 2001. Take Rutgers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.