|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-27-19||AFC v. NFC OVER 55.5||Top||26-7||Loss||-109||69 h 34 m||Show|
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the "OVER" in the Pro Bowl. The line on this game opened signficantly higher, at 60 points, and has come down. There is rain in the weather forecast for Sunday morning (40% chance), but it is expected to subside by the start of this game. There's great value at this price, as six of the last nine Pro Bowls have gone 'over' the total, with the average combined score equaling 69.67 ppg. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-100||157 h 7 m||Show|
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over New England, as the Chiefs fall into several of my very best Playoff systems, with records of 84-27, 25-6, 46-14, 91-35, 85-35 and 13-0 ATS since 1980. We played on both the Chiefs and Patriots big last week. And they both were able to take advantage of road-weary teams (Colts, Chargers) that were each playing their 3rd straight road game. Not surprisingly, the home-standing Chiefs and Patriots rolled to easy victories. For this game, however, the scheduling situation will work against the Patriots. This will be New England's first road game in 35 days, as it's been at home ever since it traveled (and lost) to Pittsburgh on December 16. Indeed, New England's been an awful road team this season. It went 3-5 SU/ATS in its eight road games. And its only impressive game of its three wins was at Chicago, where it survived to win, 38-31, as a 1-point favorite. Its other two road wins were against two of the league's bottom-feeders, Buffalo and the NY Jets. Its five losses were to the Jaguars, Lions, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers, and it failed to cover the spread in those five games by an average of 17.1 ppg. So, now let's put the Patriots' 2018 road record into context. In the previous two seasons, New England went 15-1 straight-up in its 16 road games, and 13-3 ATS (covering the point spread by an average of 6.18 ppg). It's clear that this year's edition of the Patriots is a far cry from the last two seasons, when it reached the Super Bowl both times. It's true, of course, that New England did defeat these Chiefs in Foxborough, in October. But Kansas City still covered the 4-point spread. And KC also has only lost one of its nine games straight-up in Arrowhead this season (29-28 vs. the Chargers), and covered the point spread at home this season by an average of 5.90 ppg. Last week, the Patriots rolled up 41 points vs. the Chargers, which was just the 2nd time New England scored more than 38 points this season. Unfortunately, New England also surrendered 28 to the Chargers. And in this Conference Championship round of the Playoffs, road teams are an awful 0-9 SU/ATS after scoring 27+ points the previous week at home, if they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in that victory. Even better: NFL revenge-minded teams have covered 62% in the Conference Championship round if they were playing at home with revenge against its opponent. Take the Chiefs to smash New England. NFL Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 57||Top||37-31||Win||100||155 h 52 m||Show|
At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots to go 'over' the total. These two teams played in October, and the over/under was 59.5 points. The Patriots won 43-40, and the game sailed OVER the total by 23.5 points. Now, for this Playoff game, the Over/Under has opened a couple of points lower, which provides us with good value, in my opinion. Moreover, NFL games, like this one, with very high totals (57 points or higher) generally go OVER the number, as they've gone 19-6-1 OVER since 1980, including a perfect 7-0-1 OVER if it's the last 4 weeks of the regular season, or the Playoffs. Also, the Patriots have had a stark tendency to play high-scoring Playoff games. Since 2010, they've gone OVER 14-6-1. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots OVER 47||Top||28-41||Win||100||80 h 3 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and LA Chargers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into Totals systems of mine that are 52-23 and 32-10. After missing the Playoffs following their 2008 season, the Patriots have qualified for the post-season every single year. And, even more impressively, they've owned one of the top 2 seeds (and, thus, at least one home game) in each of these 10 seasons. And they've been a solid bet to go 'over' the total when playing at home, or on neutral fields. And especially when the over/under line was greater than 43 points, as they've gone 'over' the total 13-4-1. It's true that the Chargers have gone 'under' the total their last three games. But they didn't face a quality offense in those three games (Ravens (twice); Broncos). The last two times that the Chargers faced a potent offense (Chiefs, Steelers), they went 'over' the total in both games. Finally, since 1980, in Playoff games between two teams that entered off 'unders' in their previous game, 58% have gone 'over' the total when the over/under line was 43+ points. Take the 'over.' NFL Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||36 h 21 m||Show|
At 4:35 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Indianapolis. Certainly, the Chiefs' lack of playoff success (1-11 record since 1994) hangs like an albatross around their neck. But from my perspective that factoid is a bunch of noise, and has worked to provide us with point spread value in this game. Instead, the most important statistic for this game is that the Chiefs had the #1 offense in the league this season (425.6 yards), and scored the most points (35.3). And if I can play on a rested home team, which has a proficient offense which scores 28+ points a game, and lay less than a touchdown against an opponent playing back-to-back road playoff games, I'm going to do it virtually every time. Of course, Indianapolis isn't just playing "back-to-back" road games. This will actually be its 3RD STRAIGHT game away from home. And NFL road teams have cashed just 35.7 percent in the playoffs if they were playing their 3rd straight on the road. Take Kansas City to blow out the Colts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||Top||16-44||Win||100||162 h 42 m||Show|
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Alabama. It's hard for me to pass up this many points with a team which has the better rush defense, the better rush offense, and the better defense in terms of points per game. Clemson has allowed 11.9 ppg, while Alabama's defense has given up 16.2. And Clemson rushed for 6.7 yards per carry (against foes that give up 4.5 ypr). On defense, the Tigers were also stellar, as they gave up just 2.4 yards per rush (against foes that averaged 4.4). In contrast, Alabama rushed for 5.3 ypr (against foes that surrendered 4.5 ypr (the same as Clemson's opponents, but 1.4 ypr less than Clemson gained)). And Alabama gave up 3.5 ypr against foes that averaged 4.8 ypr). When all the numbers are blended together, then Clemson's total YPR differential was +2.40 relative to Alabama. And its defense differential was +3.28 ppg. To illustrate how rare it is that you get that combination of YPR and Defensive PPG strength in a big underdog in a bowl game, consider that in the last 39 years, there has NEVER been an underdog of +6 or more points -- until Clemson in this game -- that owned a defense 3.28 ppg better, and a Total YPR differential of +2.40. Ok, so what if we relaxed our stats and just looked at how single-digit underdogs did if they owned a defensive PPG differential greater than 0, and a Total YPR differential greater than 0? Then, we find those teams have gone a very solid 104-71-2 ATS in the Bowl games. That's one reason I love Clemson as a big underdog. Another is that the Tigers lost in the semi-finals last year to Alabama. And defending National Champions are an awful 8-29-2 ATS when priced from -2 to -6.5 points vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-19 ATS if their opponent covered its previous game by more than 3 points! With the Tigers in off a 30-3 blowout of Notre Dame, as a 10.5-point favorite, we'll grab the points with the Tigers. Take Clemson. NCAA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-06-19||Eagles v. Bears OVER 41||Top||16-15||Loss||-104||131 h 5 m||Show|
At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles OVER the total. The Eagles had a great season last year, and also had a great Playoffs run, as they held the Falcons to 10 points, and the Vikings to just seven points in their two NFC wins before winning the Super Bowl, 41-33, vs. New England. But without a doubt, the fact that they had the #1 seed, and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs was a major factor in their success (and ability to hold the Falcons and Vikings to 17 points combined). This season, it's a completely different story, as they won't play any of their games at home. And that's problematic, as their defense didn't play well at all this season against teams that are currently in the Playoffs, and especially not on the road. Philly had six regular season games against other current Playoff teams, and 10 games against teams that failed to make the Playoffs. In those 6 games against Playoff competition, the Eagles' defense gave up 173 points for an average of 28.8 per game! And on the road that defensive number ballooned to 33.3 ppg. In contrast, the Eagles' defense gave up just 17.5 ppg vs. non-playoff teams (and just 16.8 in its road games vs. non-Playoff teams). This will be a high-scoring game. Take the 'over.' NFL Conference Playoff Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-05-19||Colts v. Texans -2.5||Top||21-7||Loss||-103||130 h 58 m||Show|
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over Indianapolis. This is a great playoffs match-up between two AFC South division rivals that rebounded strongly this season off 4-12 records last year. These two teams split road wins in their two regular season match-ups, and we cashed tickets in both games. In the first game, we had a huge play on the Houston Texans, who won, 37-34, at Indianapolis. Then, in the more recent game, here in Houston, we played on the 'under' 49, and cashed when the Colts won, 24-21. For this game, we'll take the homestanding Texans, and go against an Indianapolis team off a 33-17 win last Sunday, at Tennessee. Unfortunately for Frank Reich's men, road teams off a SU/ATS win, with winning SU/ATS records, have fared poorly in divisional match-ups when priced from +1.5 to -6.5 points. Since 1980, such road teams have covered just 41% of their games. Even worse for the Colts, AFC South division road teams have covered just one of six Wild Card Playoff games since 2005. And, finally, revenge-minded teams, like Houston, with win percentages between .600 and .750, that lost the season's previous meeting by less than 4 points, have cashed 94% (15-1 ATS) in the Playoffs. Take Houston. NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Texas +12.5 v. Georgia||Top||28-21||Win||100||3 h 21 m||Show|
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Georgia. The Bulldogs have the unenviable task of playing in the SEC Conference where they often have to get by Alabama in order to have a shot at a National Championship. They were unable to do it this year, and lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Title game. They're now double-digit favorites vs. Texas. But Bowl favorites of more than 7 points, off a loss in their previous game, are an awful 33-56 ATS since 1986. And if they're playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss that also failed to cover the point spread two games back, then our Bowl favorite is 2-8 ATS. Texas comes into this game off a 39-27 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. But double-digit Bowl underdogs off a loss in which they gave up 38+ points, have cashed 73%, including a perfect 5-0 ATS if their opponent was also off a loss. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Washington +7 v. Ohio State||Top||23-28||Win||100||17 h 9 m||Show|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Ohio State. The storyline for this game is that it is coach Urban Meyer's swan song. And, yes, he is the 2nd best coach in College Football (behind Nick Saban). But I'm still going to go against him today. Ohio State comes into this game off five straight wins. But the Buckeyes are an horrid 0-9 ATS since November 21, 2015 off five straight wins! Also, this Big 10 Championship team is unusual for the Big 10 Conference in that it has a poor defense. The Buckeyes have given up 25.6 ppg (a whopping 10.2 ppg more than Washington's defense gives up). Of course, over the decades, the best Big 10 Conference teams have generally been built around strong defenses and solid rushing attacks. So, in Bowl games, when you get a Big 10 team that is greatly outmatched on defense by its opponent, it's generally a good idea to fade that Big 10 team. Indeed, since 1980, Big 10 teams with a defense at least 6 points per game worse than their foe's defense have gone 8-21 ATS, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite, and also 0-6 ATS if the differential was minus 10.2 points (or worse) per game. Take the Huskies + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Kentucky +7 v. Penn State||Top||27-24||Win||100||13 h 10 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Penn State. Kentucky's defense gave up just 16.2 ppg this season. And that was against a largely-SEC Conference schedule. Anytime I can get an SEC Conference team, which has a great defense, as an underdog in a Bowl game, I'm going to strongly consider it. Indeed, SEC Conference dogs that didn't give up 16.4 ppg have cashed 76.1 percent since 1980 if they were getting 3 or more points. And if the line was 6 or more (which is, as of this writing, the number for this game, then our SEC defensive underdogs have gone 7-2 straight-up and a PERFECT 9-0 against the spread. Take Kentucky.
|01-01-19||LSU -7 v. Central Florida||Top||40-32||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
At 1 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Central Florida. Last year, the Knights went undefeated, with a 13-0 record. And it is trying to duplicate that feat this afternoon. But it's not easy to go undefeated in back-to-back years. Since 1980, five teams have tried, and only one found success -- the Nebraska Cornhuskers in 1994-1995. The other four teams (Miami, 1992; Miami, 2002; USC, 2005; and Florida State, 2014) all got destroyed in their bowl games, and failed to cover the point spread by a staggering 22.5 points per game. That doesn't bode well for Central Florida today. And neither does the fact that LSU comes into this game off a loss to Texas A&M. And one of the last things one should do in the Bowls is bet against an SEC Conference team off a loss to end its season. These teams play with a chip on their shoulder, and have rolled to a 70-45 ATS record in the Bowl games, including 38-19 ATS when they owned a .625 (or better) SEC Conference record. Take Louisiana State to blow out Central Florida. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|01-01-19||Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||27-22||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Mississippi State. The Hawkeyes' defense gave up, on average, just 17.4 ppg this season. And one of the things I love to do in Bowl games is play on teams with very good defenses, in an underdog role. Since 1981, underdogs of 7+ points that didn't give up 20+ points per game have covered 59% of the time. And in match-ups between the Big 10 Conference and the SEC Conference, the Big 10 teams have gone 9-1 ATS since 1982 as underdogs of +4.5 or more points if they had a defense which didn't give up 20+ points per game. Take Iowa.
|12-31-18||Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10||Top||33-38||Win||100||40 h 32 m||Show|
At 3:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Missouri. All things being equal, I'll look to take points in Bowl games. And especially at the higher price points. Indeed, favorites of more than 7 points are an awful, including 93-122-4 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -14 points. And, yes, it's true that Missouri played great down the stretch, with four straight wins, while Oklahoma State lost its finale to TCU, and five of its last seven, overall. But Bowl favorites off 4+ wins have cashed just 39% over the last 39 years vs. opponents off a straight-up loss. Finally, Missouri is a horrid 9-21 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Missouri is off a straight-up and ATS win, and its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by more than six points! And Okie State is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against foes off a win! Take the Cowboys. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-31-18||Pittsburgh +5 v. Stanford||Top||13-14||Win||100||39 h 18 m||Show|
At 2 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Stanford. The Panthers come into this Sun Bowl game off back to back blowout losses. They fell, 24-3, to Miami in their final regular season game. And then they lost, 42-10, to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. But one of the things I love to do is in the post-season is play on teams off back to back blowout losses. For example, underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back defeats by 21+ points have gone 12-0 ATS. Moreover, underdogs that didn't score 14+ points in their final two games have also cashed 71% in the Bowls the past 39 years. Indeed, we just saw both of these two angles in play a couple days ago in the Independence Bowl when Duke smashed Temple, 56-27, as a 3.5-point underdog, after losing 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 to Wake Forest in their final two games to end the season. Additionally, this Sun Bowl game in El Paso has long been good to the underdog. Since 1980, they've cashed 90% (18-2 ATS) when catching 3.5 or more points. Finally, Pittsburgh falls into several of my favorite Bowl systems, with records of 93-38, 119-61 and 24-7 ATS. Take the Panthers. Blowout of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +6 v. Cincinnati||Top||31-35||Win||100||37 h 32 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Cincinnati. The Hokies had a mid-season swoon which saw them lose five of six games (and go 0-6 ATS). But they bounced back to defeat Virginia (34-31) and Marshall (41-20) to end their regular season. And both Virginia and Marshall won their Bowl games in Blowout fashion, by 28 and 18 points, respectively. It's true that the Bearcats went 10-2 this season. But against other Bowl teams they didn't step up their game, as they went 1-4 ATS in their five games vs. teams that qualified for a bowl game. And three of those five games were also played on Cincy's home field. In Cincy's two road games this season vs. teams playing in Bowl games, they went 0-2 SU and ATS, with losses to Central Florida (38-13) and Temple (24-17). And if we go back further, we find that the Bearcats have covered the point spread in just 11 of their last 37 games vs. foes with a .500 (or better) record. Finally, Cincy is 0-3 SU/ATS their last three Bowl games, and 0-5 ATS their last five Bowl games when priced between -2 and -8 points. Take the Hokies + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||82 h 46 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago. Chicago won the NFC Central, and owns a 12-3 record, while Minnesota is 8-6-1, and is fighting for the 6th (and final) NFC Playoff berth. It's true that the Bears would like to win this game, provided the 12-3 Rams would be upset by the 49ers, but that eventuality is unlikely to happen. Thus, Chicago will likely have to settle for a division title, and a Wild Card playoff game. Minnesota, on the other hand, desperately wants to win this game, as that is its primary pathway into the Playoffs. I love the Vikings to do just that, as NFL teams that have at least a 2-game (or worse) record than their opponent heading into the final week have cashed 61.2% since 1980 as favorites vs. opponents off a straight-up win. Moreover, Minnesota is a super 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 regular season games when priced from -3.5 to -13 points. Take the Vikings. NFL Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-30-18||Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 52.5||Top||3-35||Win||100||66 h 37 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders to go 'under' the total. Both the Chiefs and Raiders have below average-defenses. The Raiders are giving up a staggering 28.8 ppg, while KC is surrendering 27.9 ppg. The Chiefs, though, have gone 'under' the total 12-0-1 as a home favorite when matched up against a defense which gives up 28.6 or more ppg. And, yes, it's true that the Chiefs have played their last five games 'over' the total. However, since 1980, teams off 5 (or more) straight 'overs' have gone 'under' the total more often than not, including 61.2% in their final regular season game. I also have 166-99, 74-37 and 86-44 Totals systems on the 'under,' and I expect a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-30-18||Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5||Top||3-35||Win||100||63 h 36 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Oakland. The Kansas City Chiefs have been the league's biggest surprise this season, and will likely be the AFC Conference's #1 seed. But they have not covered the point spread in any of their last six games (0-5-1 ATS). I expect that to change this Sunday afternoon, as NFL home teams with a win percentage of .727 (or better) have covered 73% over the past 39 years off back to back losses. Lay the points with the Chiefs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-30-18||Jets v. Patriots UNDER 44.5||Top||3-38||Win||100||67 h 56 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the New England/NY Jets game. The last five meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total. And that's the way we'll look in this game, as the 'under' falls into a 94-57 Totals system of mine. Additionally, the Jets lost at home last week, in overtime, 44-38, to the Green Bay Packers. The over/under line for that game was 47.5, so it went 'over' the total by 34.5 points. But teams that go significantly 'over' the total one week, tend to play lower-scoring games the next. And especially if they were at home for the (first) higher-scoring game, and are now on the road for the (second) lower-scoring game. Indeed, NFL teams that went 'over' the total at home by more than 31 points in their previous game have gone 'under' the total 69.6% of the time on the road when the line was 42+ points. Take the 'under.' AFC East Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +1.5||Top||34-32||Loss||-109||59 h 10 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Atlanta Falcons. This matchup is between two teams that both had disappointing seasons. Tampa Bay is 5-10, with three straight losses coming into this game, while Atlanta is 6-9, though it's won its last two games. Since 1980, NFL teams have cashed just 38.1% in their final road game of the season, if they won and covered their two previous games, while their opponent was off back to back losses. Take Tampa Bay.
|12-30-18||Cowboys v. Giants -6||Top||36-35||Loss||-109||59 h 10 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Dallas. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East Division title, and are locked into the #4 seed, so this game is meaningless for them. Thus, the 6-10 Giants are favored by a healthy amount over the 9-6 Cowboys. Obviously, this type of situation occurs every season in the NFL where really good teams have little incentive to play their top players in the final week or two. And in the season's final two weeks, when teams with a win percentage at least .250 percentage points worse than their opponent's, are favored by more than three points, then our favored team has covered 70.5% of the time over the past 39 years. Take the Giants.
|12-29-18||Notre Dame +14 v. Clemson||Top||3-30||Loss||-126||57 h 17 m||Show|
At 4 pm, on Saturday, December 29, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson. This is a match-up of two undefeated teams, as Notre Dame is 12-0, while Clemson is 13-0. And I will generally take the underdog in match-ups between two undefeated teams, whether in the regular season, or the post-season. Indeed, since 1980, the underdog has covered 68% of the time when getting more than 6 points, if both teams had a record of 5-0 or better. And in Bowl games, such teams are a perfect 5-0 — and not just against the point spread. But they’re also 5-0 straight-up, even though the average point spread in those five games has been 8.4 points. That bodes very well for Notre Dame. As does the fact that undefeated teams (like Clemson), with a record of 5-0 or better, and off a point spread win, have covered just 42% of the time since 1980 when favored by more than 6 points vs. .666 (or better) opponents. Take the points with the Irish. Perfect 10 Club. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-29-18||Arkansas State v. Nevada +1.5||Top||13-16||Win||100||55 h 33 m||Show|
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack over Arkansas St. The Red Wolves went 8-4 this season, including 5-3 ATS in Sun Belt Conference play, while Nevada went 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference, and 7-5 overall. Nevada did lose its last game, 34-29, as a 14-point favorite at UNLV. But Bowl teams have cashed 80% over the last 15 years off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 8 points. Even worse for Arkansas State: Sun Belt teams have gone 20-52 ATS in non-conference games, if they weren't a losing team and weren't getting more than a point. Finally, Nevada falls into my very best Bowl system, which is 52-11 ATS, as well as 74-27 and 53-21 ATS Bowl angles. Take Nevada. NCAA Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-29-18||South Carolina v. Virginia +5.5||Top||0-28||Win||100||53 h 16 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over South Carolina. The Cavaliers come into this bowl game off back to back losses. Certainly, losing back to back games to end the regular season is not ideal. But not all losing streaks are equal. And, here, both of those defeats were on the road. And losing two road games is not as problematic as, say, losing two home games. Indeed, underdogs off back to back road losses are a super 73% ATS in the post-season since 1980, including 81% vs. foes off a straight-up win. Take Virginia + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-28-18||Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5||Top||26-28||Loss||-110||18 h 54 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Iowa State. This season, Mike Leach's Cougars were the #1 College Football team against the point spread. Washington State finished the season with a 10-2 ATS record, and its only point spread defeats were its eighth game of the season vs. California, and its final game of the season vs. Washington. In contrast, Iowa State was a pedestrian 6-6 ATS, and it ended the season with four straight ATS losses. Since 1991, teams off a point spread loss, but with a point spread win percentage of .666 (or better), have cashed 70.7% in the post-season vs. foes that didn't have a winning record against the spread. And Bowl teams that lost their previous four games to the point spread were under .500 ATS in their Bowl games, including 6-15-1 ATS in "win situation" games with point spreads ranging from +3 to -3. Take Washington State. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-28-18||Syracuse v. West Virginia +3||Top||34-18||Loss||-114||14 h 49 m||Show|
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Syracuse. Certainly, there are a lot of negatives on the side of West Virginia in this ballgame. The most obvious one, of course, is the absence of star quarterback Will Grier, who has chosen to bypass this game so he can prepare for the NFL draft. And then there is West Virginia's awful history in the Bowl games. Since 1982, it's 6-21 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes. And, finally, Big 12 Conference favorites are a poor 39-58 ATS as favorites in Bowl Games. With all that said, I still favor the Mountaineers. First, the fact that Grier won't play has been factored into this point spread, as WVU was favored by SEVEN points when the opening line was published, but it is now an UNDERDOG. And, second, teams like Syracuse, that come into their Bowl game off a 21-point (or greater) upset win, have covered just 23% since 2000 when they weren’t getting 3 or more points. Finally, the Mountaineers will have had several weeks to integrate their new quarterback, Jack Allison, into the offense. And it's not as if he will be going against a great pass defense which could take advantage of his inexperience. Syracuse ranked just 74th of 130 College Football teams this season in defensive yards per pass attempt. Take West Virginia + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-27-18||Vanderbilt v. Baylor +4||Top||38-45||Win||100||14 h 27 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Vanderbilt. Last season, the Commodores won just five games, and failed to make a bowl game. So, when it defeated its arch-rival, Tennessee, in its final regular season game, that was a huge win for this program, as it was its sixth win, overall, and enabled the Commodores to play in the Post-Season. But I’m not a fan of playing on favorites in Bowl games that missed out completely on the post-season the previous year because of a losing record. Generally speaking, a lot of these teams are just happy to be in a bowl game, so I prefer to not lay points with them. And such teams have covered just 40% of the time as a Bowl favorite over the last 20 years. Vanderbilt is also a poor 2-6 ATS in non-conference games after playing their rival, Tennessee. Finally, Baylor is a solid 19-9 ATS its last 28 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +7 points. Take the Bears. NCAA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-27-18||Duke +3.5 v. Temple||Top||56-27||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Temple. These two teams played almost mirror-opposite games to end their regular seasons. The Owls won 57-7 on the road at Connecticut, while Duke was upset at home, 59-7, as a 9.5-point favorite by Wake Forest. And Duke's loss continued a season-long trend which saw it cover the point spread as an underdog (5-0 ATS), but lose as a favorite (1-6 ATS). And if we go back further, we find that Duke is 27-9 its last 36 as an underdog, including 9-0 when playing with rest, and 7-0 ATS their last seven. That bodes well for the Blue Devils this afternoon, as they've been installed as an underdog in today's game. Even better: since 1990, teams off back to back losses, where they didn't score 44+ points combined in those two games, have gone 42-17 ATS in the post-season, including 7-0 ATS the past 3 years, if they weren't favored by more than a point, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Take the Blue Devils + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-24-18||Broncos v. Raiders +3||Top||14-27||Win||100||17 h 23 m||Show|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver. Last week, the Raiders were blown out, 30-16, by the Cincinnati Bengals. But off that 14-point loss, we'll step in and take the points with Oakland as a home underdog. Indeed, I have several very good systems that back the Raiders tonight. First, consider that since 1980, home underdogs have gone 177-130-11 ATS at Game 14 forward, if they were off a SU/ATS loss. And, second, teams playing their last home game of the season have gone 70.7 percent ATS since 1980, if they owned a W/L record less than .400 and their opponent's W/L percentage was less than .429. Take the Raiders tonight + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||27 h 48 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Kansas City. The Seahawks were upset last week by the 49ers in San Francisco. That dropped Seattle's record to 8-6, so it needs to win to remain in the Wild Card hunt. Seattle's been installed as an underdog vs. the AFC's top-seeded Chiefs. But I love Seattle to pull the upset, as NFL home dogs (or PK) off an upset loss, with a win percentage between .501 and .667. have cashed 70.9% over the past 34 years vs. .687 (or better) opposition. Moreover, the Seahawks have long had one of the best home fields in the league. And Seattle's been especially strong toward the end of the season, as it is 70-39-7 ATS at home in their final three regular season home games (or the post-season) since 1983, including 24-7-1 ATS as a home underdog. Take the Seahawks. Sunday Night Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-23-18||Steelers v. Saints -5.5||Top||28-31||Loss||-108||96 h 3 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Pittsburgh. We had a big play on the Steelers last week over New England, and were rewarded with a 17-10 upset win. Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a Monday Night Football win at Carolina, 12-9. It's true that New Orleans' offense has been held in check in two of their last three games, as New Orleans also scored just 10 points at Dallas back on November 29. But it's also true that New Orleans' last three games were all on the road. At home this season, in six games, New Orleans has scored 228 points for an average of 38 ppg! And the Saints have won and covered their last four home games. Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't covered any of their last three road games, and even lost outright their last two -- as an 11-point favorite vs. Oakland, and as a 3-point favorite vs. Denver. It's true that Ben Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback. And he has some great weapons in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. But Pittsburgh's offense isn't in the same league as the Saints' offense. And Steelers coach Mike Tomlin can't hold a candle on the offensive side of the football to the Saints' Sean Payton. Indeed, Payton may be the best offensive mind in the game. And he's at his best when matched up against other teams whose offenses score more than 24 points per game. Since 2008, with Payton as head coach, the Saints are a staggering 40-15 straight-up and 42-12-1 ATS vs. foes that score more than 24 points per game. This will be another Saints Blowout. Lay the points. NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-23-18||Steelers v. Saints OVER 52.5||Top||28-31||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers to go 'over' the total. The Saints scored just 12 points last week. But they generally bounce back on offense after such poor games. And New Orleans has gone 'over' the total 86% under coach Sean Payton after not scoring 14+ points in their previous game. And the Saints have also gone 'over' the total in 30 of 39 non-division home games vs. winning teams off a straight-up win. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-23-18||Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 47||Top||24-10||Win||100||93 h 39 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Atlanta game. The Panthers have shelved star QB Cam Newton for their final two games of the season and will give backup QB Taylor Heinicke his first two career starts. Heinicke has thrown just five passes in his NFL career, so it's an understatement to say nobody really knows what to expect from him this afternoon. However, one thing I do expect is that Carolina's defense will play very well once again today. Last week, it shut down the high-flying New Orleans offense, and held Drew Brees & Co. to just 12 points. Nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total, including all five played here in Carolina. And games between two losing teams (with win percentages below .450), in the final two weeks of the season, have gone 'under' the total 95 of 152 games (62.5%) since 1980. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-23-18||Bucs v. Cowboys OVER 48||Top||20-27||Loss||-101||7 h 4 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Bucs to go 'over' the total. Tampa Bay has generally played high-scoring games away from home, and low-scoring games at home. To wit; Tampa has gone 'over' the total in 13 of its last 16 road games (compared to going under in 14 of its last 18 home games). I look for that trend to continue on this Sunday, and especially given that the Cowboys have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six home games. Take the 'over.'
|12-23-18||Bengals v. Browns UNDER 44.5||Top||18-26||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'under' the total. After giving up 134 points in a four-week stretch from October 14 thru November 4, the Browns defense has played very well, and has averaged just 20.2 ppg over their last five games. Not surprisingly, four of those five games went 'under' the total. Additionally, the last five games between these two teams played here in Cleveland have gone 'under.' And the Browns' final home game of the season has gone 'under' 13-4-1 the past 18 seasons. Take the 'under.'
|12-23-18||Bills v. Patriots -13.5||Top||12-24||Loss||-108||7 h 3 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Buffalo. The Bills have been awful over the years in their final road game of the season. Since 1980, they've gone 12-24-2 ATS, including 5-16-1 ATS as an underdog. That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon. And neither does the fact that the Patriots have lost back to back games. Since November 2002, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up, and 8-1 ATS off back to back losses (with their only ATS defeat being by just 2.5 points). Take New England.
|12-23-18||Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-7||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Miami. We played against Miami last week, and easily got the $$$ with the Vikings, who blew out the Dolphins, 41-17. We will once again fade the Dolphins, as they're a horrid 35-65-3 ATS at home when not getting more than 3 points, including just 3-19 ATS when they're off a loss, and favored vs. non-division foes. Take Jacksonville.
|12-22-18||Wake Forest v. Memphis -3.5||Top||37-34||Loss||-105||8 h 2 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Wake Forest. The Tigers come into this game off a 56-41 lost at Central Florida in their conference title game. Meanwhile, Wake Forest put up a whopping 59 points in its season finale at Duke, and defeated the Blue Devils by 52 (59-7). The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team which just scored 59 against an opponent which just gave up 56 points, and especially since that team has been installed as an underdog. But favorites (like Memphis), off a loss in which they gave up 44+ points, have covered 86% away from home vs. foes off a win, in which they scored 44+ points. Additionally, Memphis also falls into 206-138 and 24-5 ATS systems of mine, while Wake Forest falls into a negative 7-29 ATS system of mine based on its blowout win over Duke. Take Memphis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||Top||27-0||Loss||-115||13 h 16 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Ohio. The Aztecs come into this game off 3 straight losses, including an upset home loss to Hawaii, as an 18.5-point favorite to end the season. But San Diego State gets a chance at redemption in this game, and has been installed as an underdog vs. Ohio. I love the Aztecs here, as Bowl underdogs have covered 71% over the past 25 years as underdogs of +13 or less points, if they lost outright as a favorite of -13 or more points in their final regular season game. Additionally, Underdogs (or PK'em teams) have covered 64% in the post-season off back to back losses, when matched up against foes off back to back wins! Finally, Mid-American Conference teams (like Ohio) have covered just one of the last seven Bowl meetings vs. teams from the Mountain West Conference, and have failed to cover the point spread by an average of 14.42 ppg. Take the points with San Diego State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois v. UAB -1.5||Top||13-37||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Northern Illinois. Rod Carey doesn't have many blemishes on his coaching resume. But Bowl success has eluded him. Northern Illinois has lost its last five Bowl games (over the previous six seasons), by an average of 25.4 ppg, and they've all been defeats of 7+ points. Not surprisingly, the Huskies went 0-5 in those five Bowl games. It will be more of the same this season. Take UAB to blow out the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-16-18||Patriots v. Steelers +3||Top||10-17||Win||100||1 h 32 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over New England. Since 1980, home dogs from Game 14 forward, off back to back SU/ATS losses, are 93-59 ATS. Take the Steelers to bounce back off their 3 straight losses. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-16-18||Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5||Top||17-41||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Miami Dolphins. Last week, the Dolphins won one of the more miraculous games in NFL history, ranking right up there with Pittsburgh's Immaculate Reception (1972) vs. Oakland, and last season's Playoff win by the Vikings over the Saints, when Case Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard TD pass on the game's final play. Of course, everyone remembers those historic plays, but it's also important to remember what happened to those teams the next week. The Steelers, of course, lost to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game, while Minnesota was blown out by the Eagles in last year's NFC Title game. Miami's win did place it back in the playoff hunt for this season, but their euphoria should be short-lived, as I expect Minnesota to rout them this afternoon. Since 1980, NFL road teams in non-division games have cashed just 30% off division upset wins when they were a 6-point (or greater) underdog in that upset win. Even worse: if our play-against team (here, Miami) owned a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, then our negative 30% ATS system crashes to 16% ATS since 1980. This will be a blowout. Lay the points with the Vikings. NFL Non-Division Game of the Month.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||Top||13-45||Loss||-110||15 h 18 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Appalachian State. This New Orleans Bowl game pits the Sun Belt Conference against Conference USA. We played against Middle Tennessee State in its last game -- the Conference USA Title Game -- which was a horrendous situational spot for it. Middle Tennessee had just defeated UAB, 27-3, to end its regular season (its fifth straight ATS win, at the time), but then had to play UAB in a re-match the very next week for the Conference Title. Not surprisingly, UAB upset the Blue Raiders in that revenge match, so Middle Tennessee comes into this game off a loss. But it's still 5-1 ATS, which compares favorably to Appalachian State's current 3-4 ATS run. Let's go against Appalachian State tonight, as .500 (or better) Sun Belt teams are a terrible 2-25 ATS as favorites vs. non-conference foes, if our Sun Belt team isn't off a SU/ATS win, and it doesn't own a worse W/L record than its foe. Take Middle Tennessee. NCAA Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-15-18||Browns v. Broncos -2.5||Top||17-16||Loss||-107||31 h 56 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over Cleveland. Last week, the Broncos were upset on the road by San Francisco, while Cleveland won outright as a home underdog vs. Carolina. Since 1980, NFL home teams have cashed 63% off an upset road defeat if their opponent was off an upset home win. Take Denver to blow out the Browns on Saturday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||8 h 16 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Utah State. The Mean Green have lost their last five games to the point spread. But I love them to snap their streak this afternoon. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of 3.5 or more points have covered 83% in the post-season if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Additionally, North Texas has covered eight of its last 10 vs. non-conference foes (and 19 of its last 28). These two conferences (Conference USA + Mountain West) have met eight times in Bowl games over the past six season, with Conference USA dominating -- 6-2 ATS. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54||Top||29-28||Loss||-110||15 h 8 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Kansas City/Los Angeles game. The Chiefs have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, while the Chargers have gone 'over' in two of their past three. And both teams are scoring a lot of points this year, as the Chargers average over 28 ppg, and the Chiefs average over 36 ppg. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'over,' but consider that NFL games between two teams that each average 28+ ppg on offense have gone UNDER the total 64.8% since 1980, if at least one of the two teams played its three previous games 'over' the total. The 'under' also falls into two other totals systems of mine that have records of 85-43 and 76-36 since 1980. This game will be low-scoring. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks -3||Top||7-21||Win||100||15 h 57 m||Show|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota. These two playoff contenders are separated by a mere half-game, as Seattle is 7-5, while Minnesota is 6-5-1. But, for my money, Seattle is the much more impressive team, as it's played a much more difficult schedule. Compare Minnesota's home schedule to Seattle's. Of Minny's 6 home games, four were against creampuffs (49ers, Bills, Cardinals, Lions), and it actually lost to one of them! Seattle, on the other hand, has played just one weak opponent (49ers) so far at home, but has also played three playoff teams (Rams, Chargers, Cowboys) among its five home opponents. And, even though Seattle has had a daunting home schedule, it's only lost both straight-up and ATS to one team (Chargers). Meanwhile, Minnesota has covered just two (Eagles, Jets) of its six road games, though neither of those two opponents will be making the Playoffs this season. Seattle falls into several of my favorite Monday Night Football Systems, with records of 117-55, 95-52, 80-37, 73-32, 68-28 and 57-21 ATS. Lay the small number with the Seahawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears +3||Top||6-15||Win||100||30 h 32 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Los Angeles. The Rams will try to make it a 4-0 SWEEP over the NFC North teams, as they defeated Minnesota and Green Bay earlier this year at home, and then downed Detroit on the road last week, 30-16. But winning and covering back to back road games will be difficult for the Rams. The last time they pulled off that trick was in Weeks 3, 4 in 2016. Since then, they've played back to back road games four times, but weren't able to win and cover each of the two games in those successive weeks. I love Chicago in this home underdog spot. The Bears were upset on the road last week, 30-27, as a 3.5-point favorite by the New York Giants. But winning teams have cashed a staggering 82% at home the past 39 years as an underdog (or pk) vs. .670 (or better) foes, if our home team was upset in its previous game as a 3-point (or greater) favorite. Take the Bears. NFC Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
|12-09-18||Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys||Top||23-29||Loss||-115||23 h 13 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Dallas. Last week, the Cowboys upset the New Orleans Saints by a score of 13-10. And Dallas is now 7-5 this season, and has the NFC East division lead (by 1 game) over Philadelphia, which is 6-6. Of course, the reason Dallas is one game ahead is because it upset the Eagles earlier this season, 27-20, as a 7.5-point road underdog. I look for Philly to avenge that defeat, as NFL underdogs have cashed 65.7% since 1980 when playing with revenge from a loss where they were favored by 7+ points. Lay the points. NFL Division Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-09-18||Lions -2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||17-3||Win||100||23 h 36 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Arizona. The Arizona Cardinals had only defeated one other team (San Francisco, twice) before it stunned Green Bay on the road last week, 20-17, as a 13.5-point underdog. So, it was no surprise that the Packers fired head coach Mike McCarthy following that loss. Can Arizona make it two upset wins in a row? It's not likely, as teams that won outright as a 13.5-point (or greater) underdog are 1-18 straight-up and 0-17-2 ATS since December 1995. Detroit, meanwhile, lost 30-16 at home to the 11-1 Rams last week. But Detroit is a super 35-10-3 ATS on the road off a loss by 13+ points. Take Detroit. NFL Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-09-18||Steelers v. Raiders +10||Top||21-24||Win||100||14 h 30 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers come into this game off back to back upset losses (at Denver Broncos; home vs. LA Chargers). And the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the AFC North division leaders to bounce back in this critical game. But winning teams have actually burned money on the road off back to back upset defeats, and especially when they've been favored by a touchdown or more, as they've cashed just 33% since 1980. Take the Raiders as a double-digit home dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +3.5||Top||14-20||Win||100||16 h 31 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Denver. The 49ers return home after getting walloped by Seattle, 43-16, in their last game. But off that 27-point defeat, I love the Niners to rebound as a home underdog. Indeed, since 1980, home underdogs have cashed 65% off a loss by 27+ points, if they were playing a .500 (or better) opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins. Even better: Denver is an awful 22-38-3 ATS on the road off a double-digit win when playing a non-division foe, including 1-10 ATS if that foe failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in its previous game. Take the 49ers + the points. NFL Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 51||Top||24-27||Push||0||21 h 9 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens under the total. The Chiefs have racked up 37 points per game, which is #1 in the NFL. But they will find it much more difficult to score on Sunday afternoon vs. this Ravens defense, which ranks #1 in both yards (281.7) and points (17.8) per game. To wit: the Chiefs have played only one other team currently ranked among the Top 5 in defensive yards given up (Jacksonville), and that was the 2nd lowest-scoring game (30-14) that KC has played all season, and it easily went 'under' the total. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 'under' the total in their last four home games, 8-1-1 'under' in their last 10 at home, and 19-6-1 their last 26. Finally, the 'under' falls into a 59-27 Totals system of mine. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-09-18||Colts v. Texans UNDER 50||Top||24-21||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Indianapolis game. After giving up an average of 27 ppg in their first four contests, the Texans have played MUCH BETTER defense over their last eight games. Houston hasn't given up more than 23 points in any of its last eight, and has averaged just 15.8 ppg on defense. Not surprisingly, five of these eight games have gone 'under' the total. Last week, Indianapolis completely failed to score in a 6-0 shutout loss to Jacksonville. And that was the 3rd straight game the Colts have played 'under' the total. With NFL teams off shutout losses going 'under' in 28 of their last 42 games, I look for a relatively low-scoring game here. Take the 'under.'
|12-09-18||Saints v. Bucs UNDER 54.5||Top||28-14||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game. After scoring an average of 43.7 points over their previous four games, the Saints' offense sputtered last week, when it tallied just 10 points, in a 13-10 loss at Dallas. And that was the 3rd straight New Orleans game that went 'under' the total. Likewise, Tampa Bay has been playing 'unders' lately, with 3 of its last 4 games going 'under.' I look for a low-scoring game in Central Florida, as Tampa Bay has gone 'under' in 23 of 30 home games with lines of 47+ points, including 13-2 'under' if the Bucs were installed as a home underdog of 3+ points. Additionally, the 'under' falls into a 163-97 Totals system of mine. Take the 'under.'
|12-08-18||UC Davis v. Eastern Washington -10||Top||29-34||Loss||-110||1 h 13 m||Show|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Washington Eagles minus the points over Cal Davis. Faithful followers know I love playing on College Football teams that can score. And Eastern Washington has been doing just that -- in spades. Last week, EWU put up 42 points in a 42-21 home win over Nicholls State. And it scored 74 points in a 74-23 blowout win over Portland State two games back. Then, three games back, it was a match-up against its opponent this afternoon -- Cal Davis. The two teams entered that game ranked among the Top 10 in the FCS, and Eastern Washington rolled up 669 yards to defeat Cal Davis for the seventh straight time, 59-20 (after trailing 10-0 to start the game). I don't see much changing, here in Cheney, Washington, this afternoon. Lay the points with Eastern Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -4.5||Top||9-30||Win||100||14 h 58 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars snapped their seven-game losing streak last week when they shut out Indianapolis, 6-0. But with a 4-8 record, it's definitely a case of "too little, too late," as Jacksonville has virtually no chance to make the playoffs. QB Cody Kessler will make his second start for the Jaguars this Thursday night. But even though Kessler led the Jaguars to victory last week, he's still just 1-8 as a starter in his career. And his team will also be facing a much better defensive club in the Titans than it did last week vs. the Colts. Indeed, Tennessee ranks among the Top 10 in total defense, pass defense and scoring defense. I look for the Titans to blow out Jacksonville, as losing NFL teams are an awful 9-29 ATS off a home shutout victory, including 1-12 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points. Take Tennessee. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles -6||Top||13-28||Win||100||88 h 19 m||Show|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Washington. The Eagles come into this game with a losing record (5-6, .454), and on a 3-game ATS losing streak, after defeating the NY Giants, 25-22. Meanwhile Washington is a game better at 6-5 (.545), following its 31-23 loss to Dallas. With the Cowboys leading the division with a 7-5 record, this game is ultra-critical for both clubs. We'll lay the points with Philly, as defending Super Bowl Champs, not off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 68.9% at home since 1984 against division opponents off a loss. Even better: in weekday football games, favorites off back to back ATS losses have cashed 58.2% since 1980. Finally, no team has performed worse than Washington on Monday Night Football. The Redskins are 15-39 SU and 16-37-1 ATS on Mondays since 1980, including 2-14 SU the past 11 years, and 0-6 SU/ATS since 2015. Philly also falls into 61-19 and 91-33 ATS Monday Night Football systems of mine. Take Philadelphia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-02-18||Jets +9.5 v. Titans||Top||22-26||Win||100||65 h 31 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Tennessee. The Jets have lost their last five games -- both straight-up and ATS. Meanwhile, Tennessee hasn't been much better, as it's off back to back blowout losses. So, each team will attempt to right the ship on this Sunday afternoon. We will side with the road underdog Jets. One of the things I love to do is play on teams that are on long (5+ games) SU/ATS losing streaks, as one often gets good point spread value. Indeed, NFL teams have cashed 66 of 101 non-division games when they've lost (both SU/ATS) their last five games. Take the Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions UNDER 55.5||Top||30-16||Win||100||61 h 25 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Detroit Lions/Los Angeles Rams game. The Rams enter this game off 3 extremely high-scoring games (45-35, 36-31 and 54-51). The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, given that Detroit has also gone 'over' the total in a majority of its contests. But consider that favorites (like Los Angeles) that gave up 100+ points on defense over their last three games, while going over the total in each by at least 5+ points, have then gone 'under' the total 80 percent (24-6) of the time. Even better: games involving double-digit home underdogs have sailed 'under' the total 24 of the last 31. Take the 'under.'
|12-02-18||Cardinals +14.5 v. Packers||Top||20-17||Win||100||61 h 25 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Green Bay. The Packers, at 4-6-1, have their proverbial backs against the wall, as they will need to win their last five games of the season if they are to have a chance at the post-season. Arizona, of course, doesn't have that problem, as it is 2-9, and won't be playing in January. The problem for Green Bay has been its defense. Since shutting out the woeful Bills in Week 4, the Packers have given up 31, 30, 29, 31, 12, 27 and 24 points, for an average of 26.3 ppg over their last seven. For the season, their number is not much better, at 24.3. It's dangerous to lay a lot of points with bad defensive clubs, no matter the opposition. Indeed, since 1980, favorites of -8 or more points, with a defensive ppg. average of 23.67, have gone 39-80 ATS at Game 6 forward. Arizona's 10-1 ATS its last 11 off back to back losses, if it owned a losing record. Take the points with the Cardinals.
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions +11||Top||30-16||Loss||-128||60 h 57 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have scored 54, 36 and 35 points in their three previous games. In contrast, the Lions have scored just 16, 20 and 22 points in their last three games — a total of 58 points, or 67 points less than the Rams’ aggregate total of 125 points. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, NFL teams that scored 123 or more points over their three previous games have gone 0-9 ATS on the road since 2001 vs. opponents off a loss. Even better: Detroit's been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And home dogs of +10 or more points have gone 70-34 ATS since 1982 vs. opponents off a home win. Take the Lions + the points. NFL Shocker of the Month!
|12-02-18||Bills v. Dolphins -3.5||Top||17-21||Win||100||59 h 45 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins minus the points over Buffalo. The Dolphins are off back to back SU road losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis. But they were big underdogs (+9 vs. Indy; +11.5 vs. GB) in those two road games. That's not the case here, as Miami is favored at home. Meanwhile, Buffalo enters off back to back upset wins at the New York Jets, and at home vs. Jacksonville. But before one congratulates the Bills for those two wins, it's worth noting that the Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, while Jacksonville has lost its last 7 games! Since 1980, NFL home favorites of -3 or more points, off back to back road losses, have covered 72% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. This season, the Dolphins 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS. But all six of Miami's losses came when they were an underdog of +3 or more points. When Miami hasn't been an underdog of 3+ points, then it's 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and 10-3-2, 77% ATS its last 15. Take the Dolphins to blow out Buffalo. NFL Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-02-18||Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 54.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||58 h 11 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/Carolina game. Tampa Bay has played 12 of its last 16 home games 'under' the total, including last week's 27-9 victory over San Francisco. And since 1980, teams that held their previous opponent to less than 10 points have gone 'under' the total 71% of the time when the line was greater than 54 points. Even better: the Panthers have gone 'under' 57-33 when they've been favored by more than 3 points, including 26-9 when playing a division rival. Finally, the 'under' falls into 162-97 and 55-24 Totals Systems of mine. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-02-18||Ravens v. Falcons -125||Top||26-16||Loss||-125||57 h 17 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Baltimore. The Falcons are 4-7, and off three straight losses, while Baltimore enters this game off back to back wins. Of course, their competition had much to do with the results. Atlanta's last two games were against the Saints and Cowboys, among the league's hottest teams. In contrast, Baltimore's two wins were vs. the Raiders and the injury-riddled Bengals. We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL home teams off 3+ losses have gone 92-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a double-digit win, if that foe also won two games back. Take Atlanta. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-01-18||Northwestern +14.5 v. Ohio State||Top||24-45||Loss||-110||69 h 3 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Ohio State. Last week, the Buckeyes rolled over their rival, Michigan, with a 62-39 upset win. But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Ohio State on Saturday, as the Buckeyes fall into a negative system which is 0-21 ATS. What we want to do is play against any 8-point (or greater) favorite off an upset win, if they won that game by more than 10 points, and are now matched up against a .666 (or better) foe. Ohio State also falls into negative 27-66, 10-46 and 6-40 ATS systems. Take Northwestern + the points. NCAA Title Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|12-01-18||UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State||Top||27-25||Win||100||62 h 45 m||Show|
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Blazers and Blue Raiders actually met last week (also here in Murfreesboro), and the Blue Raiders won, 27-3, as a 3-point home underdog. That was also the 2nd straight defeat suffered by UAB, as it lost out of conference to Texas A&M two weeks ago. I look for UAB to avenge last week's loss, as winning teams have cashed 61% the last 39 years off 21-point (or worse) SU/ATS losses, if they're on the road against a Conference foe off a SU/ATS win. And if our team is off back to back SU/ATS losses, then our 61% system zooms to 77%. Take UAB. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||44 h 13 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Buffalo. The Bulls are 10-2 this season, while the Huskies are 7-5. But one team Buffalo has not been able to beat, of late, has been Northern Illinois. Indeed, the Huskies have won the last 11 meetings, including all 10 since the Bulls joined the MAC in 1999. (Buffalo did defeat the Huskies once, back in 1968). Even worse for the Bulls: in the MAC Conference Championship games, teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have gone 1-10 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage of .800 (or less). Finally, Northern Illinois enters this game off back to back upset losses, including a 28-21 defeat at Western Michigan 10 days ago. But NCAA teams off road upset losses have cashed 64% in Conference Title games. Take Northern Illinois + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||22 h 39 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over New Orleans. The Saints have won their last 10 games. Even more improbably, they've covered the point spread in their last nine. Even with 9 ATS wins in a row, they're far away from the 14 straight games that the Patriots covered up until getting blown out by the Bears in the Super Bowl 33 seasons ago. Tonight, they'll face the Cowboys. And while Dallas isn't on a 9-game SU/ATS win streak, it is playing well, and is on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. And home underdogs (or PK) on a 3-game (or better) SU/ATS win streak are 49-33-1 ATS since 1980. Meanwhile, road favorites (or PK) on a 5-game (or better) win streak are 12-22 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win. The Saints also fall into negative 24-69, 4-17 and 38-68 ATS systems based on its recent results. Take Dallas + the points. NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|11-25-18||Steelers v. Broncos +3||Top||17-24||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last week, in Jacksonville. But the Jags have been in a death spiral, with six straight losses. Denver, on the other hand, comes into this game off an upset win over the LA Chargers, and have covered four of their last five. Denver's also 31-17-3 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 24-11-1 ATS vs. non-division foes. Finally, teams (like Pittsburgh) on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have been poor on the road as favorites vs. non-division foes, going 33-54 ATS since 1980. Take the Broncos. AFC Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +12||Top||24-17||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Notre Dame. The Trojans are off back to back SU/ATS losses, but they're an incredible 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if they also lost 2 games back. Grab the points with the Trojans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||North Texas -24.5 v. UTSA||Top||24-21||Loss||-102||12 h 16 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Texas San Antonio. The Roadrunners have scored a sum total of 10 points over their last three games. Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, home underdogs have cashed just 38 of 116 games over the past 24 years if they didn't score more than 23 points over their three previous games (and just 1 of 13 if they didn't score more than 10). Lay the big number with North Texas.
|11-24-18||Kansas State v. Iowa State -12||Top||38-42||Loss||-105||12 h 16 m||Show|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State. This is a major revenge spot for Iowa State, which has lost the last 10 meetings to KSU. And the Cyclones fall into a 64-34 ATS revenge angle of mine which plays on certain big favorites with revenge. Additionally, the Cyclones are 7-1 ATS off a road loss, while K-State is a poor 1-5 ATS off an upset win over a Big 12 Conference rival. Lay the points.
|11-24-18||Illinois +16.5 v. Northwestern||Top||16-24||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Northwestern. Last week, Illinois was thoroughly embarrassed by Iowa, in a 63-0 beatdown. But off that whitewash, I look for Illinois to bounce back in their final game of the season. Indeed, since 1998, teams that failed to cover the point spread by 35+ points in their penultimate game of the season, have rebounded to cash 68% in their final game. Take Illinois. Big 10 Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -5||Top||3-24||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes were 10-0 last season, and ranked #2 in the country, when they went into Pittsburgh last season. The Panthers roiled Miami's season with a 24-14 upset win. The 'Canes then proceeded to lose their next two games, as well, including the ACC Title game to Clemson, and the Orange Bowl vs. Wisconsin. This season, it's Pittsburgh which has ACC Championship hopes, as the Panthers will play Clemson in the ACC Title game next week. So, even if Miami wins today, the Panthers can still win the Conference next week. Regardless, I love Miami in this revenge match, as the 'Canes fall into a 53-27 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were winning clubs the previous season. Even worse for Pitt: It's covered its last six games, and falls into a 51-23 ATS "Last Road Game" system of mine which goes against certain teams off ATS wins. Lay the points with Miami. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-24-18||Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +10.5||Top||35-14||Loss||-107||7 h 14 m||Show|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over the Georgia Southern Eagles. The Panthers have lost their last six games SU and their last five games ATS. But Georgia State falls into a 99-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Moreover, teams on a 5-game (or worse) point spread losing streak have gone 42-13 their last 55 vs. opponents on a point spread win streak (and home teams have gone 24-5 ATS their last 29 in this situation)! Take the Panthers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||Top||38-10||Loss||-110||10 h 50 m||Show|
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida. The Knights have won their last 23 games, dating back to last season, while South Florida has dropped four straight (following a 7-0 start). I love the Bulls as a two touchdown underdog on Friday, as underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 67.5% since 1980 in their final home game of the season, if they were playing a conference foe off back to back wins. Take the Bulls as the home dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-23-18||East Carolina v. Cincinnati -17||Top||6-56||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina. Cincy was blown out, 38-13, last week by Central Florida. But I love them to bounce back as a double-digit home favorite today, on Friday. Indeed, since 1988, teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 66.0% if they were favored by 16+ points, and lost their previous game by 16+ points. Lay the points with the Bearcats.
|11-23-18||Nebraska v. Iowa -8||Top||28-31||Loss||-102||6 h 34 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have won their last two games, but each of those were at home. And the Huskers were favored in both games. Now, they have to travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes in Iowa's final home game of the season. And Nebraska's an ugly 0-13 SU and 3-9-13 ATS as road underdogs of +3 or more points off back to back wins as a favorite. The Hawkeyes exploded for 63 points last week, in a 63-0 win at Illinois. And single-digit home favorites (or PK) have covered 62.8% since 1980 after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous week. Take Iowa.
|11-22-18||Falcons +13.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-115||38 h 3 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans, as Atlanta falls into my best NFL system, which is 216-128 ATS. That angle is 4-1 this season, though it did lose last week on the Eagles against these Saints. New Orleans made a mockery of the defending Super Bowl champs last week, with a 48-7 blowout win. I'll go against the Saints as a double-digit favorite, as NFL teams that scored more than 85 points over their two previous games have cashed just 31% since 1980 vs. foes that weren't off an ATS win, including an awful 0-12 ATS in division contests against revenge-minded opponents. With Atlanta off an upset loss to Dallas last week, and also playing with revenge from a 43-37 loss to the Saints in September, we'll grab the points with Matt Ryan & Co. Take the Falcons. NFL Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-22-18||Falcons v. Saints UNDER 61||Top||17-31||Win||100||38 h 0 m||Show|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons 'UNDER' the total. Both of these teams went UNDER the total last week. And division games have gone UNDER the total 161-118-2 when both teams went 'under' in their previous game, the line was 43+ points. Additionally, the 'under' falls into 70-36 and 79-43 Totals systems of mine. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +11.5||Top||35-3||Loss||-110||37 h 9 m||Show|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels + the points over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs blew out Arkansas, 52-6, last week, while their rival, Ole Miss, lost its fifth straight to the point spread, 36-29, at Vanderbilt. But the point spread has taken into account the poor play of Ole Miss, and it's already moved four points higher from the opening number on Sunday. We'll grab the points with the underdog, as we note that .200 (or better) home underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 76% off 5+ ATS defeats, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Take the points with the Rebels. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions UNDER 44.5||Top||23-16||Win||100||30 h 13 m||Show|
At 12:30 pm, our NFC NORTH DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the 'under' in the Chicago/Detroit game. These two teams met just 11 days ago in Chicago. The Bears won a high-scoring contest, 34-22, as a 7-point favorite. In the NFL, when two teams met two games back, and played a high-scoring game that went 'over' the total, the rematch has gone 'under' the total 58% of the time. The Under also falls into a 158-97 Totals System of mine. Take the Bears and Lions UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -155||Top||51-54||Win||100||15 h 11 m||Show|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City. This is the most anticipated Monday Night NFL game of the season, as it pits the 9-1 Chiefs vs. the 9-1 Rams. If history is any indication, the homestanding Rams will get the victory. First, in weekday (Monday/Thursday) games between teams with .715 (or better) records (at Game 7 forward), the favorites have gone 18-2 SU and 16-2-2 ATS since 1987. And, second, in Monday Night games since 1980, .430 (or better) home teams have gone 95-52-4 ATS off a win, if they were playing a non-division foe. It's true that the underdog Chiefs have won 4 straight games, while the Rams have lost their last three to the point spread. But the point spread has also started to catch up with Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs, as they've lost two of their last three to the spread. And NFL teams, like Kansas City, off 4+ wins, and an ATS loss in their previous game, are an awful 15.7% ATS vs. non-division foes off 3+ ATS losses. Finally, the Chiefs also fall into negative 2-17 and 27-57 ATS systems of mine that play against certain NFL underdogs off wins. Take Los Angeles. Monday Night Football Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-18-18||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||7-48||Loss||-125||84 h 45 m||Show|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans. The Eagles were upset by the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, as a 7.5-point favorite. We had a play on the Cowboys, so that result didn't surprise us. But off that upset loss, we'll look for Philly to bounce back on the road, at New Orleans, on Sunday. Indeed, defending Super Bowl champions have cashed 82.6% over the last 39 seasons on the road off a loss, if they weren't favored by 2+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win! Even better: if our defending Champs were off an UPSET loss, then our 82.6% ATS angle zooms to a perfect 16-0-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles fall into 154-68, 224-118 and 101-45 ATS systems of mine. Take Philly. 5* NFL Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-18-18||Raiders v. Cardinals OVER 41||Top||23-21||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Arizona/Oakland game. Both of these two teams have been hemorrhaging points on defense. In their last four games, the Raiders have given up 27, 42, 34 and 20 points (30.75 ppg), while Arizona has given up 27, 45, 15 and 26 points (28.25 ppg). The over falls into 79-56, 110-73 and 159-108 systems of mine. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-18-18||Raiders +6 v. Cardinals||Top||23-21||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Arizona. This match-up is obviously one between two very bad teams. Oakland is 1-8, after dropping a 20-6 home game to the Chargers, while Arizona is 2-7 following its 26-14 loss at Kansas City. Certainly, I won't be able to extol any of Oakland's virtues (because there are none). Instead, I will just submit that it's dangerous in the NFL to lay points with bad teams, like Arizona. And that's even if their opponent is equally bad, or worse (as is Oakland). Indeed, since 1980, at Game 8 forward, NFL home favorites of more than 2 points, with a .225 (or worse) win percentage, have covered just 36 of 99 games, including just four of 18 games if their opponent had less than two wins on the season. The Raiders also fall into a 66-37 and 106-55 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks, as well as 65-29 and 115-68 ATS angles that play on certain teams that failed to score 10 points in their previous game. Take Oakland. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-18-18||Cowboys v. Falcons -3||Top||22-19||Loss||-115||7 h 32 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Dallas. Last week, the Cowboys upset the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, 27-20, as a 7.5-point underdog. But off that upset win, let’s fade the Cowboys in Atlanta. For technical support, consider that teams that pulled upset wins over the defending Super Bowl Champs, and covered the point spread by 14 or more points in that upset win, have gone 6-18 ATS in their next game if installed as a road underdog. Also, last week, the Falcons were upset as a 5.5-point road favorite by the Cleveland Browns. But home teams, off upset road losses, have gone 71-43 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off upset wins. Take the Falcons minus the points.
|11-18-18||Bucs +3 v. Giants||Top||35-38||Push||0||7 h 31 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over the New York Giants. Tampa Bay scored just three points last week, notwithstanding the fact it went up and down the field, and amassed 501 yards of offense. Turnovers, of course, were the primary culprit. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had three turnovers, which marred a 29-of-41 passing day (for 406 yards). For the season, Tampa ranks dead last in turnovers, at 25. The good news, though, for this game is that the Giants rank as the 8th worst team in forcing turnovers, as they've only taken away the ball nine times. Last week, New York upset the San Francisco 49ers, 27-23, as a 3-point underdog. But the Giants are a miserable 1-8 ATS off a point spread win. Take Tampa Bay.
|11-18-18||Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44||Top||21-24||Loss||-105||6 h 29 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens to go 'under' the total. The Ravens have issues at the quarterback position for this game, as starter Joe Flacco is out with a hip injury. Thus, rookie first-round pick, Lamar Jackson, is going to get the nod, with Robert Griffin III to serve as his back-up. Regardless, though, of who is going to be under center for Baltimore, I love the UNDER. Baltimore has played six of its last seven UNDER the total. And 12 of its last 16 home divisional match-ups have sailed UNDER the total. The Ravens also have gone UNDER in 20 of their last 24 games that were priced between 43.5 and 49.5 points, including 9-1 UNDER if the Ravens were favored in those games by 4+ points. The Bengals also will be without their best offensive player, A.J. Green. Take the Ravens/Bengals UNDER the total. AFC North Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1.5||Top||10-38||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee. The Titans have won their last two games -- both as underdogs -- against the Cowboys and Patriots. And they've covered their last three in a row (each in the underdog role). Tennessee is now 5-4 on the season, and will travel to Indianapolis today to take on its AFC South division rival. The Colts also have been playing well of late, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, with the primary difference being that they were installed as a favorite (rather than an underdog) in each game. The Colts are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 as a favorite. And they're 21-2 SU and 16-5-2 ATS when favored over a division rival. Finally, NFL road teams are a miserable 25.7% ATS over the last 39 years after covering the point spread as underdogs in each of their last three games. Take Indianapolis. AFC South Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||UNLV v. Hawaii -5.5||Top||28-35||Win||100||31 h 5 m||Show|
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels upset San Diego St., 27-24, as a 24-point underdog last Saturday. That was the 2nd biggest upset on the road this season. Only Oregon State's 41-34 upset at Colorado, as a 26.5-point underdog, was a bigger upset. Not surprisingly, as a majority of teams do after pulling such upsets on the road, Oregon State failed to cover the spread the next week vs. USC. Indeed, since 1980, teams off a road upset as an underdog greater than 19 points, have covered just 35% their following game, including a paltry 18% if its opponent was off a point spread loss. And Hawaii is off an ATS loss, as it fell by 39 points to the Utah St. Aggies two weeks ago, as a 17.5-point underdog. The fact that Hawaii will play with an extra week of rest certainly won't hurt (Hawaii's cashed 64% at home since 1985 when playing with rest vs. an unrested opponent). Even worse for UNLV: it's just 2-14 ATS off a road win over a conference foe. Take Hawaii. Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina +7.5||Top||41-17||Loss||-110||13 h 49 m||Show|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern. Coastal Carolina comes into this game -- its final home game of the season -- off back-to-back home losses. But home dogs have cashed 57% since 1980 in their final home game of the season off back to back home defeats. Moreover, the Chanticleers will be playing, perhaps, their biggest home game ever in their school history this afternoon. With a win, Coastal Carolina will become bowl-eligible, and will qualify to play in a Post-season Bowl game for the very first time. With that huge motivation on its side, we'll grab the points with the Chanticleers today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||3-36||Loss||-106||10 h 19 m||Show|
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 10-0, and ranked #3 in the country. And they enter this game off a 29-point win over Florida State last weekend. But College Football favorites of 15 points or less (or PK) have covered just 31.3% away from home since 1980 in the regular season, if they were on an 8-game (or better) win streak, and off a point spread win. Take Syracuse.
|11-17-18||Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5||Top||52-51||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been a big money-burner in Las Vegas this season, as they're 4-6 ATS, including 2-5 ATS vs. Big 10 Conference foes. I don't expect things to change on this Saturday, as they will have to play a Maryland club desperate to earn a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a Bowl game. The Terrapins certainly had hoped to secure their 6th victory of the season in one of their two previous games, but they lost at home to Michigan State, and then last week at Indiana. The good news, though, for Maryland is that it's 11-2 ATS since 1980 in its last home game of the season, if it's off a SU/ATS loss, and facing a conference opponent (and 7-0 ATS if it's off back to back SU/ATS losses). Meanwhile, Ohio State has been awful vs. Big 10 Conference foes off back to back losses. Since 2006, it has gone 5-15 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points. Finally, the Buckeyes fall into a negative 40-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU/ATS wins. Take Maryland. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-17-18||Pittsburgh -6 v. Wake Forest||Top||34-13||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons pulled off a monstrous upset last week, when they went into Raleigh, and upended the NC State Wolfpack, 27-23, as a 19-point dog. Unfortunately, they're a horrid 1-12 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a line less than 8 points, if they're off an upset win. And, generally speaking, teams off upset wins as underdogs of +19 or more points don't do very well in their next game. And especially not at home, where they've cashed just 30 of 79. I look for Pitt to cover its sixth straight game today. Lay the points.
|11-17-18||Middle Tennessee State v. Kentucky -16||Top||23-34||Loss||-105||8 h 47 m||Show|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Wildcats fall into my favorite College Football system, which is 89-39 ATS since 1980. And that angle plays on certain NCAA teams off blowout losses (Kentucky lost, 24-7, at Tennessee last Saturday). That was the 2nd straight blowout loss suffered by Kentucky (it lost, 34-17, to Georgia two weeks ago), which has seen its record fall to 7-3. But I love the 'Cats to bounce back vs. Middle Tennessee, as SEC Conference teams have covered 68.1% vs. non-conference foes, if our SEC team was off an upset conference loss, and also lost SU/ATS two games back. Even worse for the Blue Raiders: they've done very poorly vs. SEC Conference teams. This season, Middle Tenn was blown out by Vanderbilt (35-7) and Georgia (49-7); last year, it also got drubbed by Vandy (28-6). Dating back to 2009, it's 1-13 straight up vs. SEC Conference foes, and 4-10 ATS. Take Kentucky. Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-16-18||Boise State v. New Mexico +20||Top||45-14||Loss||-105||13 h 59 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State. The Broncos come into this game on a five-game win streak after upsetting Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, New Mexico has dropped its last five games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the cold Lobos, and bet on the hot Broncos, including a 42-24 defeat, as a 14-point underdog, at Air Force last Saturday. But since 1980, home teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 67% vs. foes on 5-game (or better) win streaks, if our home team was also off an ATS loss, while our road team was off an ATS win. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|11-16-18||Memphis v. SMU +7.5||Top||28-18||Loss||-110||13 h 53 m||Show|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis. SMU enters this game off back to back double-digit wins over Houston (45-31) and Connecticut (62-50). Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll grab the points with SMU, as it falls into a system of mine which has cashed 63% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any home underdog off back to back wins, if it scored 90+ points combined over its two previous games. SMU needs just one more win to achieve eligibility to play in a post-season Bowl game. With this being its final home game of the season, I expect a supreme effort tonight. Take the Mustangs + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.