|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-19-19||Reds v. Padres -130||Top||3-2||Loss||-130||17 h 37 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds. With perhaps the best lineup they've had in over a decade, along with a deep young pitching staff with a bunch of other youngsters waiting in the wings, there is more optimism in San Diego regarding the Padres than there has been in quite some time. And when you consider that the NL West is as competitive as any division in the Majors, then it's not unrealistic to assume that the Pads can beat the Dodgers and finish on top in October. They will go with 27-year-old LHP Matt Strahm tonight in Game 2 of this series with the Reds. Strahm posted a sharp 2.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last season in 41 appearances (five starts). Those numbers seem to have earned Strahm a full-time starting role this season. And although he's struggled so far (0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts), it's important to note that this will be his first start of 2019 against a losing team. The Reds will go with RHP Anthony DeSclafani tonight and they are 0-7 in his last seven trips to the mound. Take San Diego. As always, good luck. Al McMordie.
|04-19-19||Phillies +118 v. Rockies||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||15 h 8 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies. There's no doubt now who the best starter on the Rockies is. RHP German Marquez won 14 games last season and he's off to one of the best starts of any pitcher in the league in 2019, going 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA and league-leading 0.70 WHIP in four starts. And all he did in his last start was throw a one-hit, complete game in a 4-0 win over the Giants. But before we make Marquez the next Bob Gibson, notice that his three best starts -- by far -- came on the road (including the last one). But in his only start at Coors Field, he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings with just two strikeouts. In fact, for his career, Marquez has a 4.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 33 games (32 starts) here, compared to 3.41 and 1.18 in 39 games (37 starts) elsewhere. The Phils will go with RH Vince Velasquez, who has had issues with walks in the past, This season, however, he has reduced his walk rate from 3.6 per 9 IP to just 2.3 in his three outings. Key Stat: the Rockies are an awful 1-6 with Marquez on the mound after he allowed 0 earned runs in his last outing. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-18-19||Reds v. Padres -157||Top||4-1||Loss||-157||19 h 32 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Cincinnati. The Padres are off to an 11-8 start this season, though they have dropped their last three in a row. Tonight, they'll hand the ball to rookie RHP Chris Paddack, who has been brilliant in his three starts this season. Paddack's ERA is a sparkling 1.29, and his WHIP is 0.85. And the Padres have won each of his three starts. Cincinnati is 5-11 on the season, but it's 4-3 when favored, yet 1-9 as an underdog. And its only win as an underdog this season was when it was an extremely small underdog, at +105, in a game at Monterrey, Mexico vs. St. Louis. Lay the wood with the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-18-19||Mariners +108 v. Angels||Top||11-10||Win||108||18 h 27 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels. Once one of the most feared starters in baseball, RHP Felix Hernandez is now basically an afterthought in the landscape of AL starters. In fact, with the struggles that King Felix has had over the past few seasons, it's easy to forget that the former Cy Young award winner is only 33 years old. And if you ask him, Hernandez would probably say he has a lot of baseball left in his arm. His numbers so far this season would seem to back up that claim as King Felix has a 4.38 ERA in his three starts with a sparkling 10:1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 12 1/3 innings. He was a tough-luck loser in his last start, getting beaten by the first-place Astros despite six strong innings. King Felix faced the Angels in his first start this season on April 1 -- a 6-3 Mariners victory in which he allowed one ER over 5 1/3 innings. Seattle is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Halos and 4-1 in the last five here in Anaheim. Take the M's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Diamondbacks v. Braves -153||Top||3-2||Loss||-153||13 h 50 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves took advantage of the Baltimore Orioles' fire sale in the second half of last season and picked up a few players from them for virtually nothing. The most significant of those acquisitions was hard-throwing RHP Kevin Gausman. Gausman has a fastball that regularly hits 96 MPH and the Braves figured they could work with him on his consistency -- something the Orioles apparently weren't able to do. You can't teach a high-90's fastball, after all. It seems to be paying off as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts with Atlanta last season after going 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts with the Orioles. And so far this season, Gausman has picked up where he left off at the end of last year, posting a 2.84 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his first two starts of 2019. The D-Backs' RHP Zack Godley is off to a rough start, going 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA over his first three starts after logging 15 victories last season. The Braves are 7-3 in Gausman's last 10 starts and 6-1 in his last seven here at SunTrust Park. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-17-19||Pirates v. Tigers +103||Top||3-2||Loss||-100||12 h 9 m||Show|
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Perhaps as big a surprise in the AL as the 13-4 Tampa Bay Rays or the 13-7 Seattle Mariners are the 8-8 Detroit Tigers. Nobody gave the Tigers any chance of finishing with anything close to a .500 record, but here we are three weeks into the season and Detroit's rag-tag collection of players is competing with the best that the AL Central has to offer. Few of the players on the Tigers are household names. And that certainly is the case with 26-YO RHP Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull is still looking for his first MLB victory, but there are a few things to like about his performance so far this season, including his 19 strikeouts and 3.80 K:BB ratio in three starts covering 15 innings. Pittsburgh took Game 1 of this series on Tuesday, in extra innings, 5-3, but the Pirates are just 1-9 in their last 10 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-16-19||Indians v. Mariners +102||Top||4-2||Loss||-100||18 h 30 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Cleveland Indians. You can say what you want about journeyman starter Mike Leake. But the 31-year-old has had an MLB career that many starters would love to emulate. First, Leake was one of a very small percentage of players who made his MLB debut without ever having appeared in a Minor League game. Second, prior to this season, the veteran RH has posted double-digit wins in six of his nine MLB seasons. And in the other three campaigns, Leake had eight, eight, and nine victories, respectively. It certainly won't hurt Leake's chances for another 10+ win season that he pitches for a team with one of the best records (and offenses) in baseball. And he's off to a very good start, having gone 2-0 in his first three starts (with the Mariners winning his other start, to boot). Leake's also performed well vs. the Indians in his career, with a 4-2 record and a 3.98 ERA in nine career starts, covering 54 1/3 innings. And his teams (the Mariners and Reds) have gone 3-1 in his last four starts vs. Cleveland, while the Mariners have gone 23-11 in his last 34 starts, overall. It's true that Seattle's #1 offense (6.84 runs per game) has cooled off a bit over its last three games, with just seven runs scored. But it's understandable when one considers that each of the three pitchers the Mariners faced in those games -- Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer -- were in the All-Star Game in 2018. Tonight, the Mariners will face 23-year-old Shane Bieber, who is a very good pitcher, but not an All-Star. Take Seattle to even up this series at 1 game apiece. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-15-19||Rockies v. Padres -155||Top||5-2||Loss||-155||10 h 23 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Colorado is one of the league's biggest disappointments, as it's 4-12 this season (including 1-9 at night, and 1-7 as an underdog). On the opposite side of the MLB expectations spectrum is San Diego. With the addition of Manny Machado, everyone assumed that the Padres would be better this season. But their 11-6 record through the first three weeks has to be a pleasant surprise, even to the team itself. And the future is pretty bright as this club features a slew of young, talented pitchers including tonight's starter, Joey Lucchesi. The 25-year-old lefty burst onto the Majors last season with eight wins, a 4.08 ERA, and a 10.0 K/9IP rate in his 26 starts with the Padres. Now, with an improved offense behind him, people are expecting more from Lucchesi as he embarks on his sophomore campaign. He took advantage of his home ballpark in 2018, going 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 16 starts. And, so far he is yet to be scored upon here in two 2019 starts (zero ER on seven hits in 10 1/3 IP). The Padres are also 4-1 in Lucchesi's last five home starts and 7-1 in their last eight series openers. Finally, he's dominated the Rockies in four starts, with a 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .208 opponents' batting average. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Mets -149 v. Braves||Top||3-7||Loss||-149||17 h 15 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the NY Mets over Atlanta. Yesterday, we played on Sean Newcomb and the Braves, and easily got the $$$ in an 11-7 Atlanta win. But we will switch gears, and back the road team in this rubber match of the 3-game series. New York will hand the ball to its ace, Jake deGrom, who has yet to allow a run in his road starts this season (13 Innings; 0 Runs; 8 Hits, 2 Walks, 24 Strikeouts). And deGrom has also been tough on Atlanta hitters in his career. Over 17 starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Last season, deGrom's W/L record suffered because his team scored three or less runs in 21 of his 32 starts. But he's received very good run support this season (which obviously is outside a pitcher's control), as New York's scored 16 runs in his three starts. The Mets are also a strong 3-0 this season, and 21-9 their last 30 as a road favorite. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Brewers v. Dodgers -145||Top||1-7||Win||100||14 h 50 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee. The Dodgers will try to snap their six-game losing streak on Sunday after getting swept in St. Louis, and dropping the first two games of this series to the Brewers. Ross Stripling with get the ball for Dave Roberts' crew, and he's been super at home the past three years. In two starts vs. the Diamondbacks and Giants this season, Stripling gave up just 3 runs in 11 2-3 innings (2.32 ERA). He was also great at home last year, as he had a 2.50 ERA in 54 innings pitched, and in 2017, when he had a 2.23 ERA over 40.1 innings. Finally, Los Angeles is an awesome 64-33 its last 97 day games. Take the Dodgers behind Stripling to salvage a win in Game 3 of this series. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Tigers +188 v. Twins||Top||4-6||Loss||-100||12 h 51 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Minnesota. The Twins have been installed as a big favorite behind Jose Berrios this afternoon. But in six career starts vs. Detroit, his ERA is north of 7 runs per game. That doesn't inspire confidence. The Tigers have gone 8-2 (+10 games on the money line) in Zimmermann's last 10 daytime starts on the road, including two underdog wins already this season vs. the Blue Jays and Yankees. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-14-19||Pirates +174 v. Nationals||Top||4-3||Win||174||11 h 17 m||Show|
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington. The Buccos will hand the ball to their talented righty, Jameson Taillon. This season, Taillon has pitched well enough (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but has nothing to show for it, as the Pirates lost each of his three starts. Admittedly, he'll have a pitching battle on his hands this afternoon since Max Scherzer is his mound opponent. But it's hard to pass up Taillon at this price, especially since he will be working on an extra day of rest. The Bucs are 11-2 on the road behind Taillon when he's had an extra day or two of rest, and they're 13-7 as a road underdog (+10 games on the money line) with him on the hill. Take Pittsburgh.
|04-14-19||Phillies -180 v. Marlins||Top||3-1||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami. The Marlins snapped their five game losing streak yesterday with a 10-3 win over the Phillies. But the fact remains Miami is an awful ballclub. Today, I look for them to revert to their losing ways, as Jose Urena will take the mound for the home club. Urena's ERA is a ghastly 8.56 (9.34 at home), with a 2.12 WHIP. In his three starts (all losses), he's yet to make it into the 6th inning, and Miami's lost by a combined score of 26-8. His mound opponent, Vincent Velasquez, has a career ERA of 3.18 vs. Miami in his 10 starts. Take Philadelphia.
|04-13-19||Astros v. Mariners +174||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||19 h 38 m||Show|
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Houston. Seattle's off to a great offensive start this season, as it's #1 in the Major Leagues in Home Runs, Slugging Percentage, Batting Average, and Runs Scored. Yesterday, the Mariners put up six runs vs. Houston, but it wasn't enough, as they surrendered 10 runs, themselves. Still, that was the EIGHTH STRAIGHT game that the Mariners scored 6+ runs! And they're 13-3 this season, including 8-2 as an underdog. Tonight, they're a HUGE home underdog vs. Justin Verlander and the Astros. But with an offense this proficient, the value rests squarely on the big home dog, notwithstanding the disparity on the mound. Admittedly, Felix Hernandez is on the downside of his great career. But he was brilliant in his lone home start this season (5.3 IP, 1 ER, 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). In his last start -- on the road vs. Kansas City -- he retired just three Royals before exiting due to food poisoning, so I won't attach much significance to the fact he didn't pitch well since he was battling illness. The Mariners bombed Verlander in the only meeting against him last season (6 runs in 2 innings), so let's take the Mariners in this home underdog role. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-13-19||Mets v. Braves -125||Top||7-11||Win||100||17 h 49 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. Two southpaws will face off tonight in Atlanta. But being lefthanded starters in the Majors is about the only thing that the Braves' Sean Newcomb and the Mets' Jason Vargas have in common. Vargas is a 36-year-old veteran junk-ball pitcher whose fastball tops out at around 87 MPH, while Newcomb is a 25-year-old rising star who has big swing-and-miss stuff with his mid-90's heater. Newcomb is off to a great start with a 1.64 ERA in his first two outings -- wins against the Cubs and Marlins. More importantly for tonight, in his last two starts vs. the Mets, Newcomb hasn't allowed a run, throwing 12 innings of near-perfect ball with just three hits allowed and 16 strikeouts. Vargas' season is off to a rough start, with a 9.00 ERA in two outings (one start) allowing six runs on 12 hits in six innings. The Braves are 8-2 in Newcomb's last 10 starts vs. teams from the NL East. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Brewers v. Dodgers -138||Top||8-5||Loss||-138||19 h 34 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee. The Dodgers' seven-game road trip got off to a great start, as they swept three games from the Colorado Rockies last weekend. But Los Angeles hit the proverbial brick wall in St. Louis, and it was swept out of the Gateway City with four straight losses. The Dodgers are back home in Chavez Ravine tonight, and will face the Brewers, who are also on a losing streak. The pitching match-up greatly favors the home team, as Julio Urias' ERA is 3.11 this season, while Corbin Burnes' ERA is a ghastly 9.90. There's no doubt Burnes has a lot of talent -- his 18 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched certainly illustrate that. However, the main problem for Burnes this season has been the longball, as he's given up six home runs in 10 innings. That doesn't bode well against a team like Los Angeles, which ranks 3rd in Major League Baseball with 29 home runs on the season. L.A. is a solid 9-3 behind Urias when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Mets v. Braves -106||Top||6-2||Loss||-106||16 h 43 m||Show|
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over New York. The Braves have already put together win streaks of 4 and 3 games this season, and bring a 7-4 record into this series. One starter who has not been part of a victory, though, is tonight's rookie hurler, Kyle Wright. Atlanta lost each of his two starts (to Miami and Philly), but it was primarily due to a lack of offense (3 runs combined) in those two games rather than a poor pitching performance by Wright. Tonight, Wright will look to get his first Major League win and he'll match-up against the Mets Zack Wheeler. The Mets have also lost Wheeler's two starts, but in those games, Wheeler's pitching was the primary culprit, as his ERA is 10.24 this season. New York is an atrocious 54-94 (minus 35 games on the money line) against winning ball clubs. Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-12-19||Phillies -167 v. Marlins||Top||9-1||Win||100||16 h 32 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. While there may be some debate as to which team is the worst in the AL (Orioles, Royals, White Sox, etc.) there is no debate in the NL. If the Miami Marlins don't finish with the worst record in the Senior Circuit, then just about everyone associated with the game will be surprised. The Marlins were not a good team before they traded away what little talent they had left, and now they are just plain bad. They have a 3-10 record and on the six-game road trip they just returned from they went 1-5 and were out-scored by 29-4 in the losses. One bright spot has been young RHP Sandy Alcantara, who is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his first two starts. But his six strikeouts against five walks in his 12 innings pitched indicate that he has been more lucky than good. In his last two starts here at Marlins Park, Philadelphia RH Jake Arrieta is 2-0 with four runs allowed in 14 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and four walks. Arrieta's teams are also 35-12 in their last 47 games (+15 games on the money line) as a road favorite of at least -115 when he starts. Take Philly.
|04-12-19||Pirates +162 v. Nationals||Top||6-3||Win||162||15 h 27 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington. The Nationals come into this game off back to back wins, in which they scored 10 and 15 runs, while the Pirates have been shut out in two of their last three games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Nationals. But Washington is an awful 17-27 (minus 26 games on the money line) off back to back wins. And, dating back to last season, Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams has tossed 6 scoreless innings in three of his last five starts (the Pirates went 4-1 in those five games). Williams also tossed five scoreless innings in this last start vs. the Nationals, and has a 2.53 career ERA vs. them. Take Pittsburgh.
|04-11-19||Indians -121 v. Tigers||Top||4-0||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Detroit. We played on the Tigers and Matt Boyd yesterday, and were rewarded with a 4-1 victory (part of a 4-0 Baseball sweep). But the Tigers' offense has -- more often than not -- failed to significantly produce, as it's scored three runs or less in eight of its 12 games this season. Not surprisingly, the Tigers' run production (33 runs in 12 games) ranks dead last in the Major Leagues. Today, Detroit will hand the ball to Spencer Turnbull, who was moved into the starting rotation when Michael Fulmer sustained an injury in spring training. Turnbull came up to the Big Leagues from the Minors late last season, and was not impressive (6.45 ERA; 1.36 WHIP). This season, in two starts, those numbers haven't improved much (4.09 ERA; 1.27 WHIP), especially when one considers that the two teams (Royals; Blue Jays) Turnbull has faced this season rank among the bottom 10 offenses in the Majors thus far. The Indians have won seven of Shane Bieber's last nine starts, and they are 80-46 their last 126 day games. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Pirates +155 v. Cubs||Top||5-2||Win||155||15 h 11 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago. The Pirates were blasted by Chicago in Game 1 of this series, 10-0, and look to bounce back today. Pittsburgh's a super 9-1 on the road off a shut out loss, and it's also 10-3 after giving up 10+ runs. Those facts bode well for the Buccos tonight. The pitching match-up also is favorable. Chicago's Yu Darvish has underperformed, as his teams are 21-24 (minus 16 games on the money line). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles comes into today's game off 5 shut out innings vs. Cincy. Take Pittsburgh. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Twins v. Mets -186||Top||6-9||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Minnesota Twins. Heading into the season, one area where most people thought the Mets improved themselves the most was in their bullpen. But that thought has been proven wrong on several occasions so far this season -- including last night when the Twins plated seven runs in the last two innings and embarrassed the Mets at Citi Field, 14-8. Let's face it -- the Twins are not a team known for their offensive prowess -- but that didn't seem to matter on Tuesday against New York ace RH Jacob deGrom. Tonight, the home team will look to its other ace, RHP Noah Syndergaard, to get back on track. Despite some impressive numbers -- a 0.83 WHIP, and a 6.50 K:BB ratio -- the man they call Thor has little to show for it this year (zero wins in two starts). Syndergaard has never faced the Twins, but in his last start vs. AL competition, he blanked the Red Sox last fall with seven shutout innings in an 8-0 Mets victory. The Twins are also just 5-11 in their last 16 inter-league contests. Take New York.
|04-10-19||Padres -105 v. Giants||Top||3-1||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. We played on San Diego as a big underdog in Monday's win over Madison Bumgarner. And we'll come right back with the Padres in this rubber match, on Wednesday afternoon. Interestingly, this game features the same pitching match-up as the game played on March 30 (won by San Francisco, 3-2). The Padres will hand the ball to Nick Margevicius, who has a super 1.80 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his two starts this season. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Dereck Rodriguez, hasn't had the same success, as his ERA is 5.23 on the season. And, dating back to last season, the Giants have lost eight of Rodriguez's last nine starts. San Francisco's a poor 51-67 (minus 15 games on the money line) in afternoon games. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-10-19||Indians v. Tigers +128||Top||1-4||Win||128||8 h 17 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Cleveland. The Indians struggled last season vs. winning teams, and beat up on losing ball clubs. This season, the Tribe seems to be falling into the same pattern. Cleveland 5-1 this season vs. teams that currently have a losing record, but is just 2-2 vs. teams that are above .500. Detroit's off to a solid 7-4 start this season, and will hand the ball to southpaw Matt Boyd. Boyd struck out 13 Yankees in 6 1-3 innings in his last start (and also fanned 10 Blue Jays over five innings in his first start of this season). His ERA is a solid 3.18, and this will be his first game at home this season. Detroit's won each of Boyd's last five starts at home, and he surrendered just four earned runs in 28 1-3 innings (1.27 ERA) in those five games. And when installed as a home underdog with Boyd on the mound, Detroit's gone 8-1 in the last nine. Take the Tigers.
|04-09-19||Yankees +171 v. Astros||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||17 h 55 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Houston. By season's end, it would not be a surprise if these two teams owned the best American League records. Tonight, the Astros have been installed as a large favorite. We'll back New York, as it has gone 7-4 (+8 games on the money line) as an underdog of +150 or higher. Houston, meanwhile, has burned money in its nighttime home games, with a 33-31 record (minus 30 games on the money line). Likewise, Houston's not excelled at home vs. winning ballclubs (78-71, minus 25 games on the money line). Finally, the Astros have lost each of Gerrit Cole's last three starts. And he has a mediocre 4.50 ERA vs. the Yankees in his career. Take the Yankees as a big underdog behind Jonathan Loaisiga tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-09-19||Dodgers -131 v. Cardinals||Top||0-4||Loss||-131||17 h 30 m||Show|
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals. If there's a concern surrounding the Dodgers this year, it's their starting pitching. With Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill on the shelf, Alex Wood jettisoned via trade, and their #1 guy right now being a 24-year-old with only 25 MLB starts under his belt, there are plenty of questions to be answered. But so far this team has flourished despite these issues with an 8-3 record and a first place standing in the NL West. Tonight they will hand the ball to one of the guys who will have to carry the pitching load -- at least for a while -- as 29-year-old RH journeyman Ross Stripling gets his third start of the season. Despite a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his first two, Stripling has no victories to show for his work. A similar effort tonight to his first two outings should get him over the hump against rookie Dakota Hudson, who has been less-than-impressive in two appearances (one start) this season. Hudson's ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is an unsightly 2.00. The big problem for Hudson thus far has been his propensity to give up the long ball, as he was tagged for three home runs in 4 1-3 innings by the Brewers. The Dodgers lost a close one here yesterday, 4-3, but they are still 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Busch Stadium. L.A. is also 11-2 in Stripling's last 13 trips to the hill following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Finally, the Cards are a poor 9-16 (minus 6 games on the money line) as a home underdog. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-08-19||Padres +116 v. Giants||Top||6-5||Win||116||20 h 6 m||Show|
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. It seems like only yesterday that Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner was one of the most feared starters in the game. In fact in 2016, Bumgarner was 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and an All Star for the fourth straight season. And he finished each of those four with an ERA under three runs. But two things happened over the next two seasons: 1) Bumgarner suffered multiple injuries, and 2) the Giants became a really bad baseball team. Over the past two seasons, despite an ERA of around 3.30, Mad-Bum had just 38 total starts with a record of 10-16. He and his team are at it again this year with a 0-2 record and 1.38 ERA in his first two starts covering 13 innings. He will face the Padres and young LHP Eric Lauer tonight. After a very strong Spring, Lauer has kept it going in his first two regular season starts with a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings. The Giants' anemic offense was on display again on Sunday, losing to the Rays 3-0 and they are 3-13 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Rangers +133 v. Angels||Top||2-7||Loss||-100||9 h 17 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Los Angeles Angels. Hardly anyone noticed when the Rangers signed RHP Shelby Miller to a free agent contract back in January. Perhaps for good reason. Over the past three seasons, the veteran starter's ERA has been 6.15, 4.09, and 10.69 respectively with a combined record of 5-16. And the year before those three, he led the Majors with 17 losses when he was in Atlanta. But perhaps a move back to Miller's native Texas will help resurrect his career. Sure, his first start was nothing to write home about, but the Rangers did win the game nonetheless. And the match-up today against RH starter Chris Stratton definitely favors the more experienced Miller. Like Miller's signing, the trade with the Giants that brought Stratton to Anaheim barely made any ripples and Stratton could have a very tough time going from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park to Angel Stadium, even if he gets more run support here. In his last five starts -- including his lone start in 2019 -- Stratton has allowed 21 ER in just 18 2/3 innings (a 10.12 ERA). Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|04-07-19||Cubs v. Brewers -111||Top||2-4||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. Many people predicted that the NL Central would be the most competitive division in the Majors this year. So far, those predictions are looking very shaky. While the Brewers have exceeded almost all expectations so far, going 7-2 in their first nine games, the Cubs are way at the other end of the spectrum, with just two victories in their first eight contests. The two rivals will square of this afternoon in Milwaukee with RHPs Kyle Hendricks (CHI) and Zach Davies (MIL) taking the mound for their respective teams. Davies pitched pretty well in his first start, a 4-3 Brewer victory over the Reds, but he left the game after five innings with a no-decision. Hendricks posted 14 wins last season, but he saw his ERA rise almost a half-run, and his first start of 2019 was not encouraging -- seven runs (two earned) on 10 hits with three walks in just 4 1/3 innings. The Brewers are 4-1 in Davies last five starts vs. teams with a losing record and 11-4 in his last 15 home starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee.
|04-07-19||Marlins v. Braves -158||Top||3-4||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Miami. The Braves saw their 4-game win streak go by the wayside yesterday. But they should get back into the win column this afternoon behind Sean Newcomb. The Braves' southpaw threw four shutout innings in his 2019 debut vs. the Cubbies, and he's 4-1 in his career vs. the Marlins with a 2.06 ERA. Miami's an awful 48-121 (minus 39 games on the money line) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200, while Atlanta's 50-30 (+22 games on the money line) vs. division rivals. Take the Braves.
|04-06-19||Rangers +130 v. Angels||Top||1-5||Loss||-100||13 h 19 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Anaheim. Oft-injured Drew Smyly pitched in the Majors for the first time since 2016 when he threw three innings of 1-run ball on Monday. And that outing followed a largely-successful spring training for the Southpaw. Today, he'll match up against Anaheim's Tyler Skaggs, who had a mediocre effort at Oakland in his season debut. Dating back to last season, Skaggs has now gone six straight starts without a Quality Start. The Angels are hopeful that Skaggs has a breakthrough season, but he underwhelmed in his Spring Training performances (7.45 ERA). The Angels have been a poor home favorite of -150 or less (14-20, minus 11 games on the money line), so we'll take the underdog Rangers with Smyly on the hill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|04-06-19||Twins +137 v. Phillies||Top||6-2||Win||137||11 h 20 m||Show|
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over Philadelphia. Michael Pineda threw 4 innings of 1-hit ball in his season debut last Sunday -- a 9-3 win over the Cleveland Indians. Pineda missed all of last season, as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, so the Twins were no doubt happy with his performance. This afternoon, Pineda will try to follow-up that game with another strong effort. And I believe he will, as he's been strong in daytime starts (6-2 last eight), and in April games (15-9). Meanwhile, Pineda's mound counterpart, Jake Arrieta, has been poor of late in the daytime (11-15, minus 9 games on the money line). And Arrieta's teams have also burned money (14-20, minus 11 games on the money line) when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest. Take Minnesota.
|04-06-19||Nationals v. Mets +114||Top||5-6||Win||114||10 h 25 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. When the Nationals signed free agent pitcher Patrick Corbin to a six-year, $140 Million contract in the off-season, there were a lot of people questioning it. After all, the veteran LHP has been in the league for six seasons -- only two of which (2013 and 2018) would warrant that type of reward. That, coupled with the fact that Corbin has had a history of injuries, makes the Nats' contract questionable at best. Sure, Corbin's first start was decent, but it wasn't anything special so the jury is certainly still out. He will try to take the next step this afternoon against the Mets in New York. Fellow southpaw Steven Matz goes for the home team and his last start against DC here at Citi Field was one of the strangest results we've seen. Despite a very strong performance (one run on five hits in seven innings), the Mets lost 15-0. With an improved bullpen this season, a similar effort today should not be in vain. Corbin's teams (the D-Backs and Nats) are 13-18 (-7 games on the money line) in his last 31 road starts. Take the Mets.
|10-28-18||Red Sox v. Dodgers -136||Top||5-1||Loss||-136||8 h 51 m||Show|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. With the Red Sox one game away from another World Title, we are back to the top of the Dodgers' rotation for Game 5 in Los Angeles. That means lefthander Clayton Kershaw will go to the mound. He wasn't sharp vs. Boston in Game 1, but there is reason to think that Kershaw can turn the tables tonight. For one thing, in Game 1, Kershaw was in unfamiliar territory, playing in a park he had never pitched in before and having to do it in cold weather. But now Kershaw will be back home, where he has amazing numbers. In 164 appearances at Dodger Stadium (all starts), Kershaw is 83-34 with a ridiculous 2.08 ERA in just under 1113 innings. And he's given up just one run on five hits, with 12 strikeouts in 15 post-season innings pitched at home this season. Finally, the Dodgers are 7-3 when trailing in a Playoff series, and 20-8 in their last 28 inter-league games. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-27-18||Red Sox +145 v. Dodgers||Top||9-6||Win||145||4 h 31 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Last night we had a huge play on the Dodgers, and were rewarded with a thrilling 3-2, 18-inning victory. Tonight, the Red Sox will look to rebound, and will hand the ball to southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. At first, it looked like the Red Sox would start Drew Pomeranz, and I would not have played on Boston had he been listed as the starter. But Boston's coaches must not have had the requisite confidence in him, given his 6.08 ERA this season, so they are now turning to Rodriguez, which is a smart move. The 25-year-old Venezuelan made 23 starts this season, and Boston won 19 of them (including 9-1 on the road, and 2-0 in interleague starts), so they will be extremely confident with him on the hill. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has struggled when priced at home between -125 and -175, as it's gone 22-24, minus 15 games on the money line. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-26-18||Red Sox v. Dodgers -151||Top||2-3||Win||100||16 h 56 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. The Sox dominated the first two games of this series at home , including a 4-2 victory on Wednesday, in which they held LA's batters to just three hits. That second defeat now puts the Dodgers in a must-win situation in L.A. tonight. RH Rick Porcello goes for the visitors, and by most accounts, Porcello has been a very solid starter throughout his career, even winning an AL Cy Young in 2016. But the Sox may have wanted to start him at home because in two starts at Dodger Stadium, the 29 year old has not fared well. In 10 2/3 innings here, Porcello has a 5.91 ERA and has allowed 18 hits with three walks for an atrocious WHIP of 1.97. The Dodgers will counter with rookie LH Walker Buehler. When we last saw Buehler, he was closing out the NLCS with 4 2/3 sparkling innings in Milwaukee in game seven. He's still looking for his first post-season victory, and he's back home tonight where he has a career ERA of 2.31 in 16 appearances (12 starts). With their victory in that NLCS Game 7, the Dodgers have now won six of Buehler's last nine starts going back to the end of August. Even better: the Dodgers are an awesome 121-86 (+18 games on the money line) after getting less than five hits in their previous game. Take Los Angeles. Interleague Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-24-18||Dodgers +133 v. Red Sox||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||16 h 29 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. The Dodgers are down 1-0 after a battle of the aces (Sale vs. Kershaw) went to the home team, 8-4, on Tuesday. Now L.A. will use LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu to start Game 2. I really like L.A., as the Dodgers are 5-1 in their last six Game 2s of a series. And they'll be matched up against southpaw David Price, who has recorded just one victory in 12 Playoff starts. It's true that Boston was able to get to L.A.'s All Star lefty, Clayton Kershaw, last night. But over the last three years, the Red Sox have struggled somewhat vs. lefty starters. Indeed, Boston has gone 240-147 (+47 games on the money line) vs. righties, but just 63-53 (minus 5 games on the money line) vs. lefties. And Ryu isn't just any lefty. He had a sparkling 1.97 ERA this regular season in 15 starts. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-20-18||Dodgers -108 v. Brewers||Top||5-1||Win||100||17 h 52 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. If you had told the Brewers back in April that they would need to win two straight home games to make it to the World Series, they would certainly take that. Now the two games are down to just one as the Brewers took care of the Dodgers and Hyun-Jin Ryu on Friday night fairly handily. And not only do they need just one more game, but they get to send the man most would consider their best starter of 2018 to the mound (RHP Jhoulys Chacin) opposite a rookie (RH Walker Buehler). But Buehler isn't just any first-year pitcher. The 24-year-old took the league by storm this season, going 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 24 games (23 starts). From an ERA standpoint, his previous NLCS start doesn't look so good (four runs in seven IP). But Buehler struck out eight and walked one with six hits allowed, so he was pretty darn good. The Dodgers won five of Buehler's final seven starts of the regular season and now they will ride their rookie to their second straight World Series appearance. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-19-18||Dodgers v. Brewers +101||Top||2-7||Win||101||7 h 35 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Wade Miley will make a 2nd consecutive start for the Brewers, here, in Game 6. Of course, his start in Game 5 lasted for just one batter (whom he walked). But he will no doubt be allowed to pitch deeper into tonight's game, and he was masterful the last time he faced Los Angeles at the Brewers' home field. That was last Saturday, in Game 2, and Miley shut out the Dodgers over 5 2-3 innings, and allowed just two baserunners. I look for another great effort by the veteran southpaw tonight. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|10-17-18||Red Sox v. Astros -139||Top||8-6||Loss||-139||16 h 53 m||Show|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. Game three of the ALCS was a case of which bullpen would break first and this time it turned out to be the Astros. Normally the closer, Osuna was brought into the game in the eighth inning and it couldn't have gone worse. Now the home team will turn to RH Charlie Morton, who was arguably its best pitcher in last season's World Series. In two appearances in that series -- one start -- Morton posted a 1.74 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings. This will be Morton's first time on the mound in the 2018 playoffs and it's a critical start as the 'Stros can ill-afford to go down 3-1. Tonight we will also find out if the bullpen appearance that RH Rick Porcello made in game two on Sunday will affect him as he gets the start for Boston. In three career starts at Minute Maid Park, Porcello is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA in just over 19 innings. Despite the loss on Tuesday, the 'Stros are 13-4 in their last 17 home games. Take Houston. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-17-18||Brewers +163 v. Dodgers||Top||2-5||Loss||-100||6 h 45 m||Show|
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. If someone had told you a year ago that the best one-two starting pitching combination in the 2018 post-season would be Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley, you would have said they were punking you. For one thing, you wouldn't even know the team that person was talking about. Chacin joined the Brewers last December while Miley signed as a free agent two months later. Through four combined starts -- one NLDS and NLCS each -- Chacin and Miley have not allowed a run in 20 2/3 innings, surrendering just 11 hits. Today, it will be Miley's turn as he faces the Dodgers for the second time in this series. The veteran southpaw was spectacular in game two last Saturday, firing 5 2/3 shutout innings, allowing only two base runners. Anything close to that should get the job done today against the Dodgers and LH Clayton Kershaw who took the loss in game one. The fact that Miley's second NLCS start is on the road shouldn't matter as he is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in seven career starts at Dodger Stadium (48 innings). Even better: the Brewers have gone 52-34, +25 games on the money line, after scoring less than two runs. Take the Brewers in this underdog role this afternoon. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-16-18||Brewers v. Dodgers -147||Top||1-2||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers prevailed 4-0 on Monday night, putting the Dodgers in pretty-much a must-win situation tonight in Game 4. Like game one, it will be a lefty-lefty match-up tonight at Dodger Stadium as Rich Hill gets the call for the home team and the Brewers turn to their Game 1 starter, Gio Gonzalez. Both pitchers are veterans, but it's Hill who has been much more effective in the post-season. Last year -- although they eventually lost to the Astros -- Hill was the Dodgers' best pitcher in the NLCS and World Series, allowing three runs and 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts and five walks in three starts in those two series. And Hill loves pitching at Chavez Ravine. In 30 games here -- 29 starts -- Hill is 14-10 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 164 innings. Hill entered September with a 6-5 record, but by the end of the season he was 11-5, having gone 5-0 in the final month. And when you include his start in the NLDS -- a 6-2 victory -- the Dodgers are now 6-0 in his last six starts. Additionally, Los Angeles has won its last four games after being shut out. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has struggled mightily on the road this season (26 runs in 25 2-3 innings; 9.11 ERA) vs. teams that finished the year with a winning record. Take Los Angeles. MLB Game of the Year! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-16-18||Red Sox v. Astros -124||Top||8-2||Loss||-124||7 h 53 m||Show|
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. Boston was able to even this ALCS on Sunday, but it may have severely hurt its chances in the next three in Houston in the process. In order to insure their lead -- due to the fact that they have an inferior bullpen to the 'Stros -- the Sox used SP Rick Porcello in the eighth inning. The strategy worked, but it means they won't have Porcello as a starter tonight. And with Porcello penciled in to start Game 4, he won't be available tonight out of the pen either. This means the already wide gulf between the quality of Houston's playoff pitching and that of Boston just got wider. Tonight it will be LH Dallas Keuchel going in front of a raucous home crowd at Minute Maid Park while the Sox are forced to go with RH Nathan Eovaldi. Keuchel is an ace who is only three seasons removed from a Cy Young while Eovaldi is a journeyman who has a career 44-53 record with a 4.16 ERA. He generally pitched well after Boston acquired him from Tampa, but won just three games in 11 starts pitching for the best offensive team in the game. And his teams also have won just three of his last 13 starts as a road underdog. Finally, the Astros are 87-48, +27 games on the moneyline, when priced from -100 to -150. Take Houston. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-14-18||Astros v. Red Sox -114||Top||5-7||Win||100||16 h 43 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Houston Astros. The Astros took game one last night behind some solid pitching and timely hitting, taking advantage of multiple miscues, walks, and hit batsmen by the home team. But the big news is that Chris Sale left the game early with his fastball barely reaching 90 MPH while he showed an uncharacteristic inability to find the strike zone. That puts more pressure on the rest of the rotation, beginning tonight with David Price, whose own post-season struggles have been well documented. If ever there was a way to exorcise his demons, it is for Price to go out tonight and pitch a gem. And the veteran southpaw is more than capable of doing just that. Putting his playoff issues aside for a moment, Price has been very effective against the Astros, going 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA in 12 career games (10 starts) vs. Houston. And for all of his recent problems, Price still owns a career record of 26-7 with a 3.08 ERA at Fenway Park. On the flip side, 'Stros RHP Gerrit Cole is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts covering 11 innings here. Take the Red Sox. AL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-13-18||Dodgers -120 v. Brewers||Top||4-3||Win||100||1 h 1 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers once again defied the odds and beat the Dodgers -- and Clayton Kershaw -- in game one last night. And Brewers' Manager Craig Counsell looks like the biggest genius in sports today as a result. Counsell lifted Gio Gonzalez after two innings -- even though he was pitching very well -- and the man he replaced him with (Brandon Woodruff) not only pitched brilliantly, but proceeded to hit a home run off of Kershaw that was the beginning of the end for L.A. So with their proverbial backs against the wall, the Dodgers will turn to LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu in game two. That may seem like a downgrade from Kershaw, but Ryu was L.A.'s best starter at the end of the regular season, going 3-0 with just one run allowed in his last three starts (19 innings). He kept it up in the ALDS, throwing seven scoreless innings in game one against the Braves on October 4. That's a long time between starts which should be fine as Ryu is 10-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 24 career starts on six or more days of rest. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-12-18||Dodgers -150 v. Brewers||Top||5-6||Loss||-150||7 h 40 m||Show|
|10-08-18||Red Sox +165 v. Yankees||Top||16-1||Win||165||12 h 25 m||Show|
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. David Price experienced another post-season meltdown on Saturday, leaving Game 2 of the ALDS to a chorus of Fenway boos after only 1 2/3 innings. Now the series shifts to the Bronx knotted up at a game apiece. Boston will turn to RHP Nathan Eovaldi while the Yanks will send out their ace who pitched in the Wild Card Game last Wednesday, RHP Luis Severino. Eovaldi's numbers since joining the Sox don't leap off the page at you, but he made quite an impression with Boston fans when he held the Yanks to three hits in eight shutout innings in his second start with the team. Eovaldi hasn't allowed a run to New York in 16 innings since his mid-season trade from Tampa. But this will be his most important start, not only with the Sox, but probably of his career so far as it marks his first playoff action. The Yanks held the high-powered Boston lineup to just two runs on Saturday, but that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Sox as they are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. And they're also 11-6 as a road underdog of +150 or more (+12 games on the money line). Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-07-18||Dodgers v. Braves +165||Top||5-6||Win||165||14 h 42 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The first playoff game at Atlanta's Sun Trust Park could also be the last game of their season. The Braves are down 2-0 in this series and have yet to score a run thanks to some pretty dominant Dodger pitching. But the home crowd should be amped up tonight so expect the young stars of Atlanta's lineup to respond accordingly. It may be LHP Sean Newcomb's first-ever post-season start (he pitched two scoreless innings of relief in game one) but at age 25 and in his second season, he's actually the veteran of this match-up. 24-year-old RH Walker Buehler also pitches in his first MLB playoff game for the Dodgers. One thing Newcomb can use as motivation is the fact that in his last start against this Dodger club -- back on July 29 -- he almost no-hit them, coming within one out from doing so in a dominant performance that resulted in a 4-1 Braves win. That performance was right here in Atlanta and no doubt Newcomb will take a repeat of that tonight. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-07-18||Brewers v. Rockies -150||Top||6-0||Loss||-150||11 h 30 m||Show|
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have taken a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS and need just one win in the next three games to advance. But the Rockies can take some satisfaction in that each of the first two games was close , and both could have easily gone their way. But the main reason for them to be optimistic is the fact that Games 3 and 4 here at home will feature their #1 and #2 starters while the Brewers are much further down in their rotation right now. This afternoon it will be RH German Marquez who broke through in 2018 with a 14-11 record, 3.77 ERA and 230 strikeouts in 196 innings (a 10.7 K rate). Sure, Marquez did most of his best work on the road this season, but that's to be expected. And you won't see it in his overall home numbers, but Marquez finished the season absolutely loving Coors Field. In his last four starts here, Marquez allowed just three earned runs in 27 2/3 innings. And, more importantly for today, the Rockies went 4-0 in those starts (by an astounding combined score of 42-5). Finally, Colorado's 40-20 (+10 games on the money line) as a home favorite this season. Take Colorado. MLB Game of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-05-18||Braves +212 v. Dodgers||Top||0-3||Loss||-100||16 h 52 m||Show|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves have relied on their youth movement all season, but now that they're down 1-0 in the NLDS, and in a quasi must-win situation, they will turn to their most experienced starter to get them back in this series. Anibal Sanchez may have only been a member of the team for one season, but he is the only one in the current rotation with multiple seasons of playoff experience. And Sanchez has not only pitched in the post-season, but he's had success there as well. In seven playoff games (six starts), the 34-year-old RH has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Sanchez thrived on the road this season, going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 13 starts away from Atlanta vs. just 2-4, with a 3.00 ERA in 12 home appearances. And Sanchez has been on quite a roll lately, finishing the season with just four runs allowed in his last four starts covering 23 innings. The Braves are 4-1 in Sanchez's last five road starts vs. teams with a winning record, and they are 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Take Atlanta. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|10-05-18||Indians v. Astros -141||Top||2-7||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians. There is no better game one pitching match-up than the one on display this afternoon in Houston. Between them, RH's Corey Kluber (Indians) and Justin Verlander (Astros) have three Cy Youngs (and finished in the top three on three other occasions), one MVP, and one Rookie of the Year. We are being treated to this battle of the Giants courtesy of the fact that both of these teams coasted to the post-season and neither had to play a Wild Card game so they are beginning the playoffs with a re-set rotation. And while nobody would dispute the fact that Kluber is one of the elite pitchers in the game, it's Verlander who has the far-more experienced -- and superior -- post-season resume. In 22 playoff appearances (all but one being starts), the 35-year-old is 11-6 with a 3.07 ERA (vs. 4-2 and 3.54 eight games for Kluber). And lest you think the elder Verlander is slowing down, his post-season run with the Champs last season was arguably his best ever (4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six games -- five starts). Finally, Verlander hasn't given up an earned run in his last two starts. And his teams are 14-2 the last three years if he didn't give up 2+ earned runs in either of his two previous starts. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-30-18||Braves -128 v. Phillies||Top||1-3||Loss||-128||11 h 37 m||Show|
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The 10 teams who will be playing baseball in October are now settled. However, in the National League, all five teams are incentivized to win on this final scheduled day of the regular season. And that's because the Cubs and Brewers are tied for first place in the NL Central, with 94-67 records. And the Dodgers and Rockies are tied for first place in the NL West, with 90-71 records. Meanwhile, Atlanta, which has already sewn up first place in the NL East, is tied with both the Dodgers and Rockies (at 90-71) for the 2nd overall seed in the National League Playoffs, and the eventual home field advantage which comes with that seeding. Thus, this game is very important to the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta will hand the ball to RHP Kevin Gausman, whose last start was also against these Phillies. Gausman pitched 6 1-3 innings, and allowed three runs in that game -- an 8-3 Braves victory. Meanwhile, the Phillies will start Ranger Suarez, who hasn't started a game since August 16, when he gave up 11 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings vs. the Mets -- a 24-4 Mets win. The Braves have won six of the last seven vs. the Phillies, and 49 of 74 division games (+27 games on the moneyline) overall this season, while Philly has won just seven of its previous 27 games, and is also a poor 25-43 after scoring 3 runs or less in back to back games. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-27-18||Braves -118 v. Mets||Top||1-4||Loss||-118||16 h 18 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. The Braves have locked up a Playoff spot, and are currently seeded 2nd, one game ahead of Colorado, which leads the NL West division. And, of course, if Atlanta can remain ahead of the eventual NL West division winner (either Colorado or Los Angeles), it will have home field advantage vs. such team in the first round of the Playoffs. Thus, Atlanta should be motivated to win tonight. The Braves will hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who has a 3.86 ERA over his last three starts, and a 3.11 ERA in his 19 nighttime starts this season (compared to a 5.73 ERA in daytime affairs). He'll be matched up against Jason Vargas, who has a 4.80 ERA in his last three starts, and a 5.88 ERA in his 16 nighttime games. Importantly, the Braves have excelled on the road this season, while the Mets have struggled at home, Atlanta is 46-31 on the road, +22 games on the moneyline, while the Mets are an awful 34-43 at home, minus 17 games on the moneyline. It's true that Atlanta lost last night, and only managed 2 hits, which tied a season low. But the Braves had won their six games previous to last night, and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those. Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-26-18||Brewers v. Cardinals -102||Top||2-1||Loss||-102||14 h 58 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our NL Central Game of the Month is on the St Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers. With their defeat last night, the Cardinals have fallen behind the Colorado Rockies in the race for the final playoff spot. So, with just four games left, this is virtually a 'must-win' for the Redbirds. They'll hand the ball to John Gant, who will make his 19th start of the season. He has a solid 3.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP as a starter this season, and has been at his best at night, where his ERA dips to 2.78 (compared to 6.12 in daytime starts). Gant will be opposed by Jhoulys Chacin, who is an uninspiring 1-7 in his career starts vs. St. Louis, with a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Even worse, he hasn't made it into the 6th inning in any of his four most recents starts. And in his four starts vs. St. Louis this season, the Cardinals have scored 17 runs (14 earned) in 20 2-3 innings. Take St. Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-25-18||A's v. Mariners -103||Top||8-10||Win||100||19 h 37 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. The A's have clinched a post-season Wild Card berth, and will play the Yankees in that elimination game next week. The venue of that game has yet to be decided, as Oakland still has hopes of catching the Yankees (Oakland's currently 1.5 games behind). However, even though Oakland "needs" to win, we will fade it tonight, on the road in Seattle. The A's will start lefty Brett Anderson, who has been dreadful of late. His ERA over his last three starts is 6.39. And his season ERA on the road, in 10 starts, is a nasty 5.36 (with a 1.51 WHIP). In contrast, Mike Leake has a 2.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three starts. And his home ERA this season is 3.99, with a respectable 1.27 WHIP. The Mariners are 8-2 this season behind Leake, when favored -150 or less (and 19-11, +12 games on the moneyline, in all of Leake's starts this season). Take Seattle. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|09-24-18||Pirates +146 v. Cubs||Top||5-1||Win||146||17 h 1 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago. The Cubs will likely win the division, as they're up on Milwaukee by 2.5 games with just a week to go. Tonight, though, they'll have to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon has not given up more than 3 earned runs in a start in his last 20 outings! And his ERA over those 20 games is 2.70. And his last start was one of his three best starts this season, as he struck out 11 over seven shutout innings, in a 2-1 Pirates victory vs. Kansas City. Pittsburgh has now won his last six starts, and 12 of his last 15. That bodes well against the Cubs and Cole Hamels tonight, as Hamels has a 5.89 ERA over his last three starts, including a troubling, six inning, seven run performance, where he couldn't locate his fastball, at Arizona last Wednesday. The Buccos have been installed as a sizable underdog, due to the fact Chicago needs to win, while the Bucs have been eliminated from Playoff contention. But Pittsburgh continues to play hard, and has won six of its last eight games. With Taillon on the hill, it's a live underdog on Monday night. Take Pittsburgh. Underdog of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-21-18||Cubs -162 v. White Sox||Top||4-10||Loss||-162||11 h 19 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox. This afternoon, Jose Quintana will return to the park he called home for the first five-and-a-half seasons of his MLB career. And the situation in which Quintana pitches against his former team for the first time since going from the South Side to Wrigley Field couldn't be more important. The Cubs were blasted 9-0 by Arizona on Wednesday, but are still clinging to a 2 1/2 game lead over the pesky Brewers. They'll have a great chance to improve on that in the next week, as their next seven games are against teams with losing records, starting with this weekend set vs. the White Sox. Sure, Quintana holds a career losing record here at Guaranteed Rate Field (22-27), but that's mainly because he pitched for a losing team most of the time and he also owns a 3.59 ERA over those 84 games (82 starts). What a thrill it would be for him to get his team that much closer to its third straight Division Title with a win today. The White Sox are just 9-25 in their last 34 inter-league games while the Cubs are 22-7 in their last 29 inter-league road games vs. teams with a losing record, and 65-27 (+26 games on the moneyline) off a game where they failed to score 2+ runs. Take the Cubs. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-20-18||Red Sox +152 v. Yankees||Top||11-6||Win||152||9 h 32 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. Having all but locked up the AL East as well as the best record in baseball, there are reasons to think that the Red Sox are taking their foot off of the proverbial accelerator with a little more than a week to go in the regular season. And getting blown out, 10-1, like they did to the Yankees last night, certainly seems to back that thinking. But there are at least two reasons to believe that Boston still wants to win games. First is the fact that the Sox are two victories away from their franchise record for wins in a season (105). And second is fact that the last thing a #1 seed wants to do going into the playoffs is to come in off a string of losing efforts, especially if those losses are to its division rival. So, tonight, I expect the Boston bats to come out in support of LHP Eduardo Rodriguez who goes to the hill for his 23rd start of the season. Certainly, Chris Sale has been Boston's #1 pitcher this season. But Rodriguez has been arguably Boston's next best starter with a 12-4 record, 3.53 ERA and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The Sox are 5-1 in Rodriguez's last six starts, and 9-1 this season off a loss by more than 5 runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka has given up 11 runs and 26 baserunners in 15 innings pitched vs. the Red Sox this season. Take Boston. AL East Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-19-18||Reds v. Brewers -160||Top||0-7||Win||100||16 h 37 m||Show|
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers picked up Gio Gonzalez after the Nats placed him on waivers, sacrificing only a couple of lesser Minor League prospects. The 32-year-old southpaw has paid immediate dividends, going 1-0 in his first two Milwaukee starts with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings. Start number three will be his third straight at his new home as Gonzalez faces the Reds back at Miller Park in an effort to keep his team in the thick of the playoff race. Cincy will go with RH Matt Harvey, who they picked up from the Mets in early May for C Devin Mesoraco. Harvey has been up and down since joining the Reds, going 7-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 22 starts. But five of Harvey's seven victories -- and only one of his losses -- have come at Great America Park so the road has not been kind to the 29-year-old. This will be Harvey's first start of the season at Miller Park, but in his career, he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts here. Heading into Wednesday, the Reds are 7-21 in their last 28 road games, while Milwaukee is 64-32, +18 games on the money line, their last 96 as a home favorite. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-18-18||Cardinals v. Braves -136||Top||8-1||Loss||-136||15 h 37 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals. One of the biggest pitching surprises of either league goes to the hill tonight for Atlanta for his 22nd start. Anibal Sanchez's performance thus far has left even the most seasoned of baseball followers scratching their heads. The 34-year-old's ERA the last three seasons with Detroit was 4.99, 5.87, and 6.41 -- not trending in the right direction as they say. So what could possibly account for his 3.01 number (along with a 1.12 WHIP) this season? The Braves don't really care just as long as Sanchez keeps doing what he's doing. They would love to have the veteran going to the mound for them in the post-season as Sanchez has a career 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP combined over three playoff seasons. And it's looking more and more like the Braves will get to the post-season with tonight's game will be a good warm-up for them as the Cards may be someone they see in October. Sanchez has a career 3.26 ERA vs. St. Louis in six starts (38 2/3 innings), while his mound opponent -- Austin Gomber -- has given up 10 runs and 19 baserunners in his last two starts (covering nine innings). Take Atlanta. MLB Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-17-18||Rockies v. Dodgers -152||Top||2-8||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. In a very important game on Sunday night, the Dodgers tried relying on RH Ross Stripling, who had only had one start since August 9 and that decision didn't work out for them. The Cards shut out L.A. as Stripling lasted just 3 1/3 innings so tonight they come home for a three-game series against the team they are a half-game behind. In game one they will send LH Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound to face the Rockies and RH Jon Gray. With all of the star power on this pitching staff, Ryu has been arguably the Dodgers' most consistent starter in the limited time he's been out on the mound. In 12 starts, the 31-year-old southpaw is 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 63 innings. It's true that Gray was stellar in his first nine starts after returning from a stint in Triple-A, but in his last two, he has lasted just four innings and he has a 5.14 ERA in his last three. Also, the Rockies are also a poor 10-24 on the road with Gray on the hill when the O/U line was less than 9 runs. Take the Dodgers. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-16-18||Pirates v. Brewers -162||Top||3-2||Loss||-162||11 h 25 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers are a completely different looking team this season than last -- especially in the everyday lineup. But no offensive addition has been more important to this team than that of RHP Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin's first year in Milwaukee is his 10th in the Majors and it looks like it's going to be his best overall. He has tied his career mark with 14 wins (2013 - Colorado), as well as starts (31), posted a 3.54 ERA, and is eight strikeouts shy of his career-best mark of 153. Perhaps most important is the fact that Milwaukee is 20-11 when Chacin takes the mound, and that mark is the same as the leading candidates for the Cy Young (Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola). Chacin looks for that important 15th victory this afternoon against a team that he's pitched well against this season, but hasn't gotten the support from his teammates that he's deserved. By contrast to Chacin, the Pirates' RH Trevor Williams is 12-9 but his team is only 14-14 in his 2018 starts. The Bucs are 1-4 in Williams' last five starts vs. winning teams. Take the Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-14-18||Dodgers v. Cardinals +117||Top||3-0||Loss||-100||17 h 41 m||Show|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers. You would have been hard-pressed to find many people who had heard of tonight's starters in this crucial game back in March. But here we are in September and both RH's Walker Buehler (Dodgers) and Jack Flaherty (Cards) have become key members of their respective rotations. There's no denying Buehler's importance to his team right now, but if there is a weakness in the 24-year-old rookie's resume, it's in his performance away from Dodger Stadium. In 11 games (10 starts) at home, Buehler is 3-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But in his nine road starts, he has only managed a 4.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. These two starters faced off less than a month ago (August 22) in L.A. and the Cards came through with a 3-1 victory (although Flaherty took a ND). Flaherty hasn't lost a start since July 31 and the Cards are 5-2 in his last seven trips to the mound. The Dodgers are 1-5 in the last six meetings while the Cards are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. NL West teams and 4-1 in Flaherty's last five vs. winning teams. Take St. Louis. MLB Dog of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-13-18||Cubs -123 v. Nationals||Top||4-3||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals. This afternoon, the Cubs will make a trip to DC to play a make-up a game from last weekend. LH Mike Montgomery will go to the mound for Chicago opposite Nationals RH Joe Ross, who is making his return from Tommy John surgery. In 34 games, including 15 starts, Montgomery is 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA. However, on the road, his ERA is a full run lower than it is at Wrigley (3.43 vs. 4.43). It also isn't hurting Montgomery to have had a light workload (107 2/3 innings) this season, which should allow him to continue to perform at a high level. To wit: in the month of August, Montgomery posted a 2.70 ERA. The Cubs are also 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a RH starter, while Washington is a poor 16-23 (minus 16 games on the money line) vs. lefties. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-12-18||Dodgers -187 v. Reds||Top||8-1||Win||100||4 h 45 m||Show|
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. Yesterday, the Reds continued their dominance over L.A., with a sixth straight win this season in the series. The 7th (and final) game of the series will be played early today at Great American Ball Park, so this will be the final chance for Los Angeles to defeat the Reds this year. I believe they will do so. Ross Stripling will get the start for the Dodgers today, though he's coming off an injury, and will be limited in his pitch count (about 45 pitches, or 3 innings). But that's not a bad thing, as the Dodgers' bullpen's ERA in day games is 3.34, with a 1.15 WHIP this season. It's true that the Reds have won Anthony Desclafani's last three starts. But it's been due to offensive production, not for Desclafani's pitching. Indeed, his ERA over his last three outings is 6.28 and he hasn't had a quality start in any of his last four games. Even worse, the Reds are an awful 8-30 (minus 15 games on the money line) as a home underdog of +175 or higher, and 1-6 behind Desclafani when he's been a home dog of +125 or more. Take Los Angeles in this early afternoon game. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|09-11-18||Dodgers -166 v. Reds||Top||1-3||Loss||-166||13 h 50 m||Show|
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds jumped all over the Dodgers and Alex Wood last night, and that's not something that L.A. can really afford right now. It's not likely to happen tonight as Hyun-Jin Ryu goes to the mound for the 12th time this season. The veteran southpaw has been very tough to hit this season, as evidenced by his 2.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Last night's victory was the Reds' fifth straight over the Dodgers this season as the Dodgers haven't beaten Cincy since last June. But the Reds haven't faced Ryu in 2018 either, and he's been ultra tough against just about everyone he's gone out and pitched against. His last road start was on May 2 and Ryu threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings in that one before leaving with a groin injury. He has made five starts since returning -- all at home -- but he was pretty effective in limited road work leading up to the injury. The Dodgers are also 16-5 in Ryu's last 21 road starts vs. teams with a losing record, and they've won five straight off a loss. Take L.A. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-10-18||Diamondbacks v. Rockies -142||Top||2-13||Win||100||17 h 2 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the possible exception of the Braves (if they win the NL East) no run to a Division Pennant has been as surprising as that of the Rockies. And like Atlanta, Colorado has had many unsung heroes. But none has been bigger than German Marquez. Despite winning 11 games and finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, the 23-year-old RHP flew under the radar coming into 2018. He has already matched last year's win total and lowered that ERA to 4.05 in 28 starts. More importantly, Marquez has been red-hot down the stretch. In his last five starts, Marquez has gone 2-0 and allowed seven runs on 20 hits in 35 2/3 innings with 38 strikeouts and just seven walks. Those are ace-like numbers and two of those five starts were here at home, and they were every bit as good as his road starts. RH Zack Godley has had a good season for the D-Backs for sure, but they are 2-7 in his last nine starts vs. teams with a winning record while the Rox are 8-2 in Marquez's last 10 starts vs. the same. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|09-10-18||Yankees -148 v. Twins||Top||7-2||Win||100||17 h 32 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees were looking for a weekend sweep in Seattle against a team that they're attempting to knock out of post-season contention. But after winning the first two games, New York fell one run short on Sunday, 3-2. But the Yanks are still sitting pretty -- two-and-a-half games up on the A's for the first Wild Card spot in the AL heading into this series vs. the Twins. You can count LHP JA Happ among the group of starters whose season has taken a turn for the better since being traded from a non-contender to a contender. Happ was solid -- 10-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts -- while with the Blue Jays from April through July. But after going to the Bronx he has been lights-out -- Cy Young worthy if it was over an entire season. Since donning the pinstripes, the veteran southpaw has gong 5-0 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven starts. The Yanks don't mind being on the road at all lately as they are 11-4 in their last 15 away from the Bronx. The Twins are 0-7 in their last seven games following a win. Take New York.
|09-10-18||Brewers v. Cubs -132||Top||3-2||Loss||-132||16 h 28 m||Show|
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs were rained out in DC yesterday which allows them to skip their #5 starter and come back today with a full day of rest and LH ace Jon Lester on the mound at home. After a so-so 2017 (13-8 with a 4.33 ERA), Lester has rebounded strong this season, going 15-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 28 starts. The beginning of the second half was a struggle for Lester as he went 0-3 in his first five starts after the All Star break. But Lester has settled down lately, going 3-0 with four earned runs allowed in his last four starts covering 23 2/3 innings. He started September off on a high note, shutting out the Phillies on the road over six innings with seven strikeouts and no walks for his 15th victory. He hasn't faced the Brewers since his second start on April 5 in Milwaukee, shutting them out over six innings allowing just three hits with six strikeouts in an 8-0 beat-down for his first victory of the season. The Cubs are 5-0 in Lester's last five starts against the Brewers. Take the Cubs.
|09-08-18||Cubs -140 v. Nationals||Top||5-6||Loss||-140||7 h 38 m||Show|
At 6:10 pm (approximate start time), in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Washington. Cole Hamels will get the start for the Cubbies, and he's been perhaps the most valuable player traded for at the deadline. Indeed, since the Cubs acquired him in late July, he's a perfect 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in seven starts with his new team. And one of those starts was against this Nationals club, which he held to one earned run in seven innings, in a 4-3 win by Chciago on August 12. I surely won't fade those numbers. But he's also been terrific on the road all season, with a 2.38 ERA and 7-2 record in his 14 road starts. Finally, the Nationals have been dreadful vs. lefties this season (14-23, minus 19 games on the moneyline). Take the Cubs in Game 2 with Hamels.
|09-08-18||Braves +121 v. Diamondbacks||Top||5-4||Win||121||18 h 12 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Arizona. We played on Atlanta as a big underdog in Game 1 of this series (and won), and then came back with the homestanding Diamondbacks last night (and also won). Tonight, we're back on the road dog, as we'll play on the Braves behind RHP Julio Teheran. This season, the Braves are a perfect 9-0 as an underdog of +150 or less with Teheran on the hill, while Arizona is a poor 21-23 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) as a favorite at home, priced from -125 to -175. Teheran's career numbers vs. Arizona are solid (4-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), while Clay Buchholz has a poor 6.06 ERA and 1.89 WHIP vs. the Braves, in three starts. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-08-18||Cardinals -157 v. Tigers||Top||3-4||Loss||-157||16 h 13 m||Show|
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Detroit Tigers. The Cards are locked in a tight battle with the Brewers for the #1 NL Wild Card and they wouldn't be in this position without the contribution of RHP Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has come up huge for the Cards, with an 8-6 record and 2.83 ERA in 23 starts coming into tonight. In his last start, Flaherty had to face Max Scherzer and the Nats. After needing 33 pitches to get through the first inning (with a HR to Trea Turner), Flaherty settled down and was in line for the victory after holding the Nats to that single run (the bullpen blew it later on). He won't have Max Scherzer or the Nats lineup to contend with tonight as Flaherty faces the Tigers for the first time in his career. He comes into this start with a 1.50 ERA in his last three and his lineup with have the benefit of using DH tonight against LHP Matthew Boyd. The Cards are hitting .256 vs. lefties this season and Boyd is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in eight inter-league games (six starts) in his career. Heading into this evening, the Tigers are 5-10 in their last 15 games vs. NL teams. Take St. Louis.
|09-07-18||Braves v. Diamondbacks -149||Top||3-5||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Atlanta. Last night, we were on the other side, and were rewarded with a nice, extra-innings win by the underdog Braves. But we'll switch gears on Friday and take the homestanding Diamondbacks. Kevin Gausman will get the start for the Braves, and his teams have been dreadful in his road starts, as they've won just 23 of 68 (minus 21 games on the moneyline). Even worse: as an underdog, Gausman's teams have gone 2-10 this year, and 7-25 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) the past two years. Arizona's Patrick Corbin has faced Atlanta eight times, and has gone 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA. I look for him to be dominant once again. Take Arizona. MLB Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-06-18||Braves +145 v. Diamondbacks||Top||7-6||Win||145||16 h 60 m||Show|
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves lost for the 3rd straight time yesterday afternoon, 9-8, to Boston. And it was a heartbreaker, as the Braves were up 7-1 in the game, as well as 8-7 in the top of the 9th, but collapsed. Tonight, Atlanta will face Arizona, another team in the Playoff hunt. The Braves will start Anibal Sanchez, while Arizona will turn to Zack Greinke. Both pitchers are in fine form, and both have similar, overall statistics. Sanchez's ERA is 2.55 in his last three starts, and it's 3.07 for the season. Similarly, Greinke's ERA is 2.70 over his last three outings, and it's 2.97 this year. Atlanta's actually been a better road team than home team this season. At home, Atlanta's a money-burning 37-34, minus 2 games on the moneyline. But on the road, it's 39-29, plus 16 games on the moneyline. Likewise, Arizona's been much better away from home (39-32, +7 games on the moneyline), than in front of its home faithful (36-32, minus 8 games on the moneyline). With Atlanta on the road, at Arizona, we'll take the Braves in this underdog role. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-05-18||Cubs +103 v. Brewers||Top||6-4||Win||103||15 h 18 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee has taken the first two games of this series, and is now alone in 2nd place in the National League Central division (and sits in 1st place in the Wild Card race). Tonight, Milwaukee will look to narrow the Cubs' 3-game division lead. But I favor the Cubs in this match-up. Chicago will hand the ball to LHP Jose Quintana. It's true that he's had an up-and-down season, as he's 11-9, with a 4.21 ERA. But he's been much better at night (2.93 ERA; 1.16 WHIP) than in the daytime (5.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Even better: he's dominated the Brewers in his eight career starts, as he's gone 4-2, with a super 1.67 ERA. Quintana will oppose Brewers RHP Jhoulys Chacin. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, Chacin has done his best work in the afternoon, as he's 4-1, with a 2.90 ERA. This game, though, will be played at night, where Chacin's ERA is almost a full run higher (3.80). Take the Cubs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-04-18||Cubs -101 v. Brewers||Top||1-11||Loss||-101||16 h 41 m||Show|
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. It's not a marquee match-up, but a pair of southpaws go to the hill in Milwaukee in what could be the biggest series of the regular season for these two teams. It's hard to deny that LH Wade Miley has given the Brewers an incredible boost that virtually no one expected. But for all he's done for the Crew, Miley only has two wins in 11 starts with no victories in the month of August. Also, in his two August starts here at home, Miley allowed five runs on 15 hits with four walks in 10 innings against the Pirates and Rockies -- hardly numbers you would expect from someone with a 2.18 ERA. What that tells you is that Miley has been more lucky than good recently, at least when it comes to pitching at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery will make his second start since coming off the DL. So far as a starter, he's 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 games. He will try to avenge a loss in his only other start against the Brewers this season on June 13 despite giving up just one run over six innings. The Cubs are 19-8 in their last 27 games vs. a LH starter, and 10-2 their last 12 coming off a loss. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...AL McMordie.
|09-04-18||Phillies -137 v. Marlins||Top||9-4||Win||100||15 h 41 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. With the Braves playing a series against the best team in baseball (the Red Sox), the Phillies need to take advantage of a series like this one. Unfortunately, although Boston came through and thumped the Braves on Monday, the Phillies couldn't do anything and lost a tough one in the first game of this series in south Florida. And it's beginning to look more and more like Philly's only path to the post-season will be by way of an NL East title. So if ever there was a time for RHP Jake Arrieta to prove his worth, now would be it. Sure, Arrieta has a solid 3.54 ERA in a full slate of 26 starts. But that's about the only thing you could say has gone well for the biggest off-season pitching free-agent. Arrieta's record is only 9-9 (on a team that is seven games over .500) and he continues to lose in critical situations. Nobody knows how crucial the last four weeks are more than Arrieta himself, so look for him to turn it up down the stretch. The Phillies are 7-3 in Arrieta's last 10 starts on grass, and Arrieta's teams are also a super 25-7 when priced from -125 to -175 on the road. Take Philadelphia.
|09-02-18||Mariners v. A's -128||Top||2-8||Win||100||14 h 27 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Seattle. The A's have been fantastic this season when favored, as they're 44-20, +17 games on the moneyline (and 29-12 in this situation at home). This afternoon, they'll hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who is 3-2 at home, with a 2.88 ERA. In stark contrast, Felix Hernandez has a losing record (8-11) this season, including 4-6 on the road, with a 7.30 ERA. And the Mariners are 1-7 as an underdog of +150 or less with him on the hill. Clearly, Hernandez's best days are in the rear view mirror. Jackson's a perfect 4-0 in his four career starts vs. Seattle, with a 1.26 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Take the A's. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|09-02-18||Cubs v. Phillies -147||Top||8-1||Loss||-147||12 h 58 m||Show|
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago. Aaron Nola has been spectacular of late. In his last six starts, he's given up 1 earned run or less in five of the games. And his ERA over his last four starts is 0.64. He'll look to keep it going this afternoon against a Chicago squad which is a poor 28-42, minus 9 games on the moneyline, its last 70 as an underdog. And with the Phillies coming in at 12-0 this season as a home favorite with Nola on the hill, we'll take the home team this afternoon.
|09-02-18||Brewers -108 v. Nationals||Top||9-4||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Washington. The Brewers caght a break today when the start of Washington's ace pitcher, Max Scherzer, was moved to Monday -- against Milwaukee's rival, St. Louis. There's no doubt that the Brewers will be happy to see Jefry Rodriguez on the mound, instead. The Brewers will hand the ball to Junior Guerra, who has a solid 3.50 ERA in his daytime starts this season. And in his lone start vs. the Nationals this season, Guerra gave up just one earned run, and four hits, in six innings. Milwaukee's a super 39-21 when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 7-2 behind Guerra this season. Take Milwaukee.
|09-01-18||Diamondbacks +153 v. Dodgers||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||18 h 4 m||Show|
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers. As goes Clayton Kershaw, so go the L.A. Dodgers. When you look at the southpaw ace's ERA of 2.39, you might assume that all has been right with the three-time Cy Young award winner this season. But you'd be wrong. With only 124 innings pitched, and just six wins into September, Kershaw is having a sub-par season for sure. By now, the veteran southpaw usually has 15 or more wins. And if he was doing that this year, the Dodgers would likely have a pretty comfortable lead in the NL West. He'll get start number 21 tonight at home against a team with which he's very familiar in the Diamondbacks. It will be LH ace vs. LH ace as Arizona sends out Patrick Corbin. The 29-year-old D-Backs hurler has some pretty strong numbers in 2018 (10-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 27 starts), and he held Los Angeles to just two runs over 18 1-3 innings pitched in three starts this season. In contrast, Kershaw has given up 5 runs in 19 innings pitched vs. Arizona in his three 2018 starts. Take the Diamondbacks.
|09-01-18||Mariners -109 v. A's||Top||8-7||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Oakland. James Paxton has given up just 1 run in 7 1-3 innings vs. the A's this season, and is 3-0 lifetime vs. Oakland with a 3.30 ERA. Tonight, the Mariners have been installed as a road favorite, and they're a solid 31-18 this season when favored -150 or less. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|09-01-18||Rockies -145 v. Padres||Top||4-2||Win||100||18 h 35 m||Show|
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over San Diego. The Padres are a horrid 39-73 as an Underdog this season, including 12-32 (minus 18 games on the moneyline as a home underdog). Tonight, they'll face Jon Grey, who has a solid 2.67 career ERA in 14 starts vs. San Diego. Grey's mound opponent will be Robbie Erlin, who has an ERA of 7.89 and a WHIP of 1.80 in five career starts vs. the Rockies. Take Colorado.
|08-31-18||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -127||Top||2-3||Win||100||18 h 40 m||Show|
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Zack Greinke tonight. Greinke has long been the Majors' best pitcher when installed as a favorite (and especially at home). Unfortunately, his team is a road underdog tonight. And Greinke's teams have been dismal in his career as a road underdog, as they're 28-56, minus 19 games on the moneyline (compared to 207-128, +42 games on the moneyline, when not a road underdog). Similarly, Hyun-Jin Ryu has performed much better in his career as a favorite (39-23, +6 games on the moneyline) than as an underdog (15-16). This season, Ryu's Home ERA is 1.57, with a 0.94 WHIP. Even worse for Arizona: it's a dismal 22-33 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) vs. winning teams this season, and 8-16 (minus nine games on the moneyline) vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or less. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|08-31-18||Pirates v. Braves -113||Top||3-2||Loss||-113||15 h 5 m||Show|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh. The Braves lost last night to Mike Montgomery and the Cubs. And that continued the Braves' trend this season where they've dominated RHPs (56-37, +21 games on the moneyline), but have burned money vs. LHPs (18-22, minus 4 games on the moneyline). Tonight, the good news for the Braves and SP Anibal Sanchez is that they'll face Pirates RHP Jameson Taillon. Additionally, Pittsburgh is a poor 28-50 as a road underdog priced at +150 or less. Take Atlanta.
|08-31-18||Brewers v. Nationals -117||Top||4-1||Loss||-117||15 h 36 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over Milwaukee. Tanner Roark will get the start for the Nationals tonight, and he's been terrific over his last seven starts. The Nats are 6-1 in those seven games, and Roark's given up just 8 earned runs and 38 baserunners in 44 2/3 innings (1.61 ERA; 0.85 WHIP). One of those seven starts was against these Brewers, and all Roark did was strike out 11 batters in 8 scoreless innings. In his career vs. Milwaukee, Roark has a 4-1 record in six starts, with a 2.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Washington.
|08-29-18||Nationals v. Phillies -122||Top||6-8||Win||100||16 h 52 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Washington. It's likely going to be "too little, too late" for the Washington Nationals, who have won three straight, but still sit six games out of the Playoff picture. Tonight, Washington will face Jake Arrieta and the 2nd place Phillies. Arrieta's been at his best here, at home, as his ERA is 2.88, with a 1.13 WHIP. In contrast, Gio Gonzalez' road ERA is 4.35 with a 1.39 WHIP. Even worse: in Gonzalez's last three starts, he's 0-3, with an 8.04 ERA. And he's 1-9 his last 10 decisions! Take the Phillies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|08-29-18||A's v. Astros -160||Top||4-5||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. If there's a series in MLB right now bigger than this one between the Astros and A's then somebody should let us know. The A's have closed the gap between them and the defending champs like a freight train over the last few weeks and now they are everyone's favorite dark horse in the AL. But with success often comes setbacks, and the A's just found out that two of their best starters have landed on the DL (Brett Anderson and Sean Manaea) so things won't get any easier for them. This afternoon it will be RHP Trevor Cahill -- another one of their pleasant surprises -- taking the mound for the 17th time this season. The biggest problem for Cahill will likely be the venue he's pitching in. That's because the 30-year-old veteran has one of the strongest home field biases in the Majors. In eight starts at the Coliseum, Cahill is 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA. However, in the same number of starts in opposing ballparks, he is 1-3 with an ugly 6.92 number. In two starts at Minute Maid this season, Cahill is 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA. Take the Astros.
|08-29-18||Mets v. Cubs -183||Top||10-3||Loss||-183||10 h 48 m||Show|
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the New York Mets. Alec Mills is a 26-year-old RHP who was drafted by the Royals in 2012 and then traded to the Cubs for a minor league player in a move that went virtually unnoticed in 2017. But Mills has put up some pretty impressive minor league numbers over the past five years and could prove critical to the Cubs post-season push over the next 30+ days. After shutting out the Cards in a two-inning relief appearance on July 27, Mills finally made his first MLB start last Friday and he made the most of it. Over 5 2/3 innings, Mills held a pretty good Reds lineup to one run on three hits while punching out eight hitters with just one walk. That start, along with the fact that Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery remain sidelined with injuries, has given Mills another chance to stick in the back end of this very unsettled rotation (Yu Darvish is also out for the rest of the season). Heading into Wednesday's continuation of last night's suspended game (scheduled to start before this game, at 1 pm), the Mets are 0-8 in the last eight meetings with the Cubs. Take Chicago.
|08-28-18||Rockies -130 v. Angels||Top||3-2||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Anaheim Angels. The Rockies suffered a tough loss last night when their bullpen gave up five runs in the bottom of the 8th after moving out in front by two runs in the top of the inning. Tonight, the Rockies will hand the ball to LHP Kyle Freeland, who has a 1.91 ERA in seven career interleague starts (the Rockies went 6-1 in those games). Even better: Colorado is 9-1 in Freeland's last 10 starts, while the Angels are a poor 16-24 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) vs. southpaws this season. Take Colorado.
|08-28-18||Marlins v. Red Sox -258||Top||7-8||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Miami. The Red Sox come into this home game in a mini-slump. Boston has dropped its last three games, but has been installed as a big favorite vs. Jose Urena and the Marlins on Tuesday. Boston is a jaw-dropping 51-9 (+29 games on the moneyline) its last 60 games as a favorite priced at -200 (or higher), and 28-10 (+17 games on the moneyline) off back-to-back losses. Take the Red Sox.
|08-28-18||White Sox v. Yankees -231||Top||4-5||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Chicago. In his career, James Shields has not been able to step up in class, when installed as a big underdog. Indeed, Shields' teams are an awful 9-42 (minus 27 games on the moneyline) with Shields on the hill when priced at +150 or higher. Lance Lynn has a career record of 3-1 (in six starts), with a 2.15 ERA vs. the White Sox. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|08-27-18||Rockies -137 v. Angels||Top||7-10||Loss||-137||11 h 6 m||Show|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Los Angeles Angels. After a bit of a breakout season in 2017, LHP Jonathan Gray has had a bit of a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty campaign this year. On the half-full side, the Rockies strikeout artist has hit 10 wins for the third season in a row and will reach a career high if he can be victorious just once more. But on the half-empty side, Gray slumped badly in the first half and, although he has pitched much better since the break, his ERA still sits at 4.67. But Gray has yet to lose a game in the second half (2-0 with a sparkling 2.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six starts), and he's lowered his ERA a full run from where it sat in mid-July. Now, if Gray can just put it all together for a full season, he could find himself among the NL elite pitchers. He has a great shot at win number 11 tonight against the Angels, who have dropped six straight, and who have lost all but one of their last nine games. The Rox will also get the added benefit of using a DH tonight and Gray is 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 career inter-league starts. Take Colorado. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|08-26-18||Mariners v. Diamondbacks -176||Top||2-5||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Seattle. There has been no better pitcher "in Vegas" as a home favorite than Zack Greinke. Indeed, in his career, his teams are 116-45 in this role (+47 games on the moneyline). This afternoon, Greinke will match up against Mike Leake, who brings a career 4.96 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks (over 11 starts) into this contest. In contrast, Greinke is 5-1 vs. Seattle (in 10 starts), with a 1.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Take the Diamondbacks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|08-26-18||Rangers v. Giants -156||Top||1-3||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. It's no secret that the Giants' season has been filled with mostly disappointments. But one pleasant surprise has been the performance of Derek Holland. The Giants signed the 31-year-old LH to a minor league contract in February and initially at least, it wasn't clear what the Giants would get from Holland. After his first 10 starts (May 25), Holland was just 2-6 with a 4.72 ERA. But over the last three months, he has been a key member of the Giants' staff, stabilizing an injury-plagued rotation. Holland has lowered his ERA by more than a run since the end of May and he hasn’t lost a start since July 10 (eight starts). Tonight, Holland will face the team which drafted him in the 25th round in 2016, and for which he played the first eight seasons of his MLB career. It will be his third career start vs. the Rangers as he faced them twice when he was with the White Sox last season. Holland has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and the Giants are 6-0 in his last six starts vs. teams with losing records. Take San Fran.
|08-26-18||Red Sox +113 v. Rays||Top||1-9||Loss||-100||8 h 54 m||Show|
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Tampa Bay. The Red Sox lost to Tampa Bay yesterday, and are in danger of being swept by the Rays. Still, there's no reason for anxiety in Boston, as the BoSox are firmly in control of the division lead, with a 7-game cushion over the Yankees. Today, Boston will hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, who started the season for these Rays. So, Eovaldi will be extremely comfortable pitching here, at Tropicana Field. Indeed, his ERA at home for the Rays this season was 2.11. Even better: Eovaldi is 4-0 in five daytime starts, with a 0.82 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. And the Red Sox are 29-6 this season in day games! Take Boston. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|08-26-18||Phillies -117 v. Blue Jays||Top||8-3||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Toronto Blue Jays. Vincent Velasquez gets the start this afternoon for the Phillies, and he's been super away from home this season (2.97 ERA; 1.26 WHIP). He'll face RHP Marco Estrada, who has a 4.91 ERA at home this season (and a 6.23 ERA over his last three starts). The Phils have been at their best when favored this year (40-27, +5 games on the moneyline), while Toronto has been a money-burner as a home underdog (9-16, -4 games on the moneyline) this season. Take the Phillies.