|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-24-19||Padres v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5||6-3||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
Joey Lucchesi has yet to prove he can pitch effectively outside of Petco Park. Trent Thornton has yet to show he can pitch well at Rogers Centre. So it's not asking much for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. Lucchesi has an 8.10 road ERA. The Blue Jays have scored 17 runs in their last three games. They have been a strong Over team in interleague play going above the total in 17 of their past 25 games versus NL opponents. Thornton is 0-3 with a 6.75 home ERA. He hasn't been sharp either with a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts. The Padres' offense is more dangerous outside of Petco Park especially in an AL park where they can use a DH. San Diego has scored four or more runs in nine of its last 14 away games.
|05-24-19||Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5||Top||10-12||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
Helped by the recent additions of Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez into their starting lineup, the Marlins have scored 16 runs in their last three games. They face Kyle McGowin, who has a 6.00 ERA and only is in Washington's starting rotation due to injuries to Jeremy Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez. McGowin has been mainly used in relief. He isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and Washington has one of the worst bullpens in the majors. The Nationals have scored five or more runs in six of their last nine games. A big reason for this is they have gotten healthy with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman. Pablo Lopez gets the start for Miami. He has a 5.06 ERA. Lopez has gone against the Nationals twice and the results have not been pretty - a 7.59 ERA. The Marlins' bullpen also is highly vulnerable. These teams have a strong Over history when playing in Washington with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times.
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6.5||Top||105-99||Loss||-107||21 h 31 m||Show|
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7.
|05-22-19||Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8||9-11||Loss||-114||4 h 26 m||Show|
The marquee pitching matchup of the day pits Max Scherzer against Jacob deGrom. But based on how well they have pitched this season, Luis Castillo versus Zach Davies isn't far behind those two superstars. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA. The Under has cashed in his last seven road starts. Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under is 4-0 during his last four home starts. That's a combined 11-0 Under mark in this situation from the two starters. Both bullpens are above average, too. The Brewers' offense is much less potent without reigning NL MLVP Christian Yelich, who didn't play on Tuesday due to back spasms. The Reds' lineup could really use Yasiel Puig, who has been out with a shouder injury.
|05-21-19||Bucks -135 v. Raptors||Top||102-120||Loss||-135||33 h 43 m||Show|
The Bucks didn't play well in Game 3. The result was a 118-112 double overtime road loss to the Raptors. Expect the Bucks to play much in this Game 4. The oddsmaker expects that. The difference is reflected in Milwaukee opening as a road favorite instead of an underdog as they did in Game 3. The oddsmaker has it right. The Bucks are the side I want going for me. Milwaukee has by far the better depth. This is huge because the Raptors are gassed especially Kawhi Leonard, who is playing hurt. The Raptors have no shot if Leonard doesn't produce a monster game. The Bucks have won and covered 10 of their 12 playoff games. It's not a big surprise considering they had the best SU and ATS mark during the regular season, too. Milwaukee also has been great in revenge spots - 12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS off a loss.
|05-21-19||Sharks v. Blues -1.5||Top||1-5||Win||181||20 h 52 m||Show|
Injuries and the luck factor turning against them leave the Sharks dead in the water for this Game 6 road matchup against the Blues. I don't see San Jose staying alive by beating St. Louis here. Even if the Sharks are hanging in trailing by just one goal there is the strong possibility of an empty net goal taking place since San Jose is in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. The Blues' superior defense and goaltending with star rookie Jordan Binnington has come alive. The Blues have taken control of the series winning the past two games holding the Sharks to just one goal during this span. The Sharks are 3-7 in their past 10 road contests. San Jose has been the luckiest team in the playoffs. But that luck has run out. The Blues buried the Sharks, 5-0, at San Jose in Game 5. The Sharks have gotten hit hard by injuries with key players captain Joe Pavelski, two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl, their second-leading goal scorer next to Pavelski, all missing significant time in Sunday's Game 5 defeat. Jaden Schwartz has been a monster for the Blues scoring 12 goals during the postseason. Vladimir Tarasenko is stepping up now, too, producing at least one point in five consecutive games.
|05-21-19||Reds v. Brewers -125||3-0||Loss||-125||19 h 31 m||Show|
The Reds have lost 40 of their past 57 road games, including going 9-15 away from home this season. They are 4-7 versus southpaws this season and facing Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez at Miller Park. The Brewers have won 67 percent of their home games this year going 16-8. Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts this season. Milwaukee is 9-2 in his last 11 starts going back to last season. Gonzalez is 6-3 career-wise versus the Reds with a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts. The Reds could be without Yasiel Puig, who suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday. Reds starter Sonny Gray is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Gray has yet to reach the seventh inning this season and is not a good fit pitching at homer-friendly Miller Park.
|05-20-19||Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11||Top||9-10||Loss||-112||19 h 52 m||Show|
Step to the head of the class if you knew that Mike Minor had the lowest ERA of any lefty starter in the American League. Minor has allowed only five runs in his last four starts and has a 2.61 ERA on the season. He goes deep into games, too, having pitched at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts. The Under has cashed in 10 of Minor's past 13 home starts.
The Rangers' vulnerable bullpen could get a boost if Shawn Kelley, their most consistent reliever and recently appointed closer, is activated from the injured list. Kelley has been out after having a pair of lymph nodes surgically removed. He threw a simulated game Sunday. This total is high because Mike Leake is going for Seattle and Globe Life Park is an outstanding hitter's park. Leake has been pitching much better, though, with a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts. Globe Life Park becomes far more of a hitter's park during the muggy summer months. The weather forecast for tonight's game is winds gusting in at 23 mph.
|05-19-19||Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors||Top||112-118||Loss||-109||17 h 52 m||Show|
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up.Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo.
|05-19-19||Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5||Top||3-2||Loss||-100||13 h 11 m||Show|
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice.Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action. Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out. San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games.
|05-19-19||Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5||5-0||Loss||-104||15 h 50 m||Show|
This has been a back-and-forth series as expected. That can apply to the total, too. The teams are returning to San Jose here for Game 5. The first two games of the series were at San Jose. There were nine goals scored in Game 1 and six goals scored in Game 2. That's the norm as 68 percent of the Sharks' past 19 games have resulted in six or more goals being produced. The Sharks are constantly in attack mode. They maybe have the two most offensive-minded blueliners in Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. St. Louis is known for its defense and goaltending. The Blues' offense production, though, is underrated. St. Louis is averaging 3.3 goals in its last games. The Blues have scored at least three goals in 75 percent of their last 28 games.
|05-18-19||Giants -106 v. Diamondbacks||8-5||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
The Diamondbacks are pitching Zack today. The wrong Zach. It's Zack Godley getting the start not Zack Greinke. That puts me in action with this matchup because Madison Bumgarner goes for San Francisco with a price that is right to back the superior pitcher.The Giants are 9-2 the past 11 times Bumgarner has faced Arizona at Chase Field. The Giants lost a rough 7-0 game to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Bruce Bochy was tossed during the game. So the Giants won't be mailing this one in. They are 6-2 the past eight times following a loss. Bumgarner is in solid form with a 3.50 ERA and a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Bumgarner has a lifetime 2.43 ERA against the Diamondbacks spanning 33 outings, including 32 starts. He has a 2.81 career ERA at Chase Field. Injuries have forced Godley into Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game. He is struggling with a 7.65 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts. Arizona is 1-6 in Godley's last seven home starts. Godley has a 6.68 career ERA versus the Giants in eight appearances, including six starts.
|05-18-19||Warriors v. Blazers -127||Top||110-99||Loss||-127||20 h 47 m||Show|
Normally I would have a hard time laying points with the inferior team. But this is the Trail Blazers' game to win - and I see them getting the job down here at home in this Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals being down 2-0. Portland showed it can outplay the Warriors. The Trail Blazers should have won Game 2 at Golden State, but blew a 17-point second half lead in losing, 114-111. The Trail Blazers have proven resilient all season especially in the postseason. They took out the Thunder in the first round after being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season. Then they came back from a 3-2 series deficit to eliminate the Nuggets winning Game 7 in Denver. Portland's Terry Stotts is a very underrated coach. I like the adjustments he made from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series, including tighting up the Trail Blazers' pick-and-roll defense, putting Moe Harkless on Stephen Curry and freeing up CJ McCollum for better looks on his jumpers. If McCollum and Damian Lillard had even their normal shooting games the Trail Blazers likely win Game 2. The All-Star backcourt tandem, though, shot a combined 15-of-39 (38.4 percent) from the field. The pair missed 10 of their 12 fourth-quarter field goals. Those two are due to shoot much better. Portland shouldn't fold up either with the switch in venues to their home-court. Certainly the Trail Blazers won't lack intensity down 2-0 while the Warriors have to be feeling fat and happy. Not having Kevin Durant is going to catch up to the Warriors.
|05-17-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6.5||Top||103-125||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games.The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily.
|05-17-19||Blue Jays +100 v. White Sox||10-2||Win||100||17 h 20 m||Show|
I'm not a fan of Ivan Nova especially when he's favored against a better pitcher. That's the case in today's Blue Jays-White Sox game in a starting pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus Nova. Nova is in better current form than Sanchez, but that's not enough to convince me. Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA. The righthander was very good three years ago when he last was fully healthy. Sanchez has been durable this season. The White Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 home games when facing a righty starter. Nova has a 6.29 ERA. That hideous ERA is doubled at Guaranteed Rate Field - 13.50. Nova is 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 19 career appearances against the Blue Jays, including 17 starts. His lifetime ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field is 6.62. So if you think this is a fade on Nova you are 100 percent correct.
|05-17-19||Sharks v. Blues -136||1-2||Win||100||3 h 10 m||Show|
I want the Blues going for me after poor officiating cost them the last game. The Blues have been resilient all season and are the better defensive team by a wide margin with the superior goalie.
|05-16-19||Blazers v. Warriors OVER 217.5||Top||111-114||Win||100||17 h 54 m||Show|
The Warriors don't need Kevin Durant to produce a lot of points. They are averaging 117 points in their last two games minus Durant. Stephen Curry is stepping up and Golden State's reserves are scoring much better. It helps that the Trail Blazers lack rim protection with Jusuf Nurkic out. Portland is giving up an average of 113.2 points during its last five games discounting its 100-96 victory against the Nuggets. A key to making this Over work is Portland getting its points. I expect the Trail Blazers to be less tight and shoot much better than the 36.1 percent they shot in Game 1 while committing a ghastly 21 turnovers. I like the open looks both teams were getting in Game 1. Damian Lillard was just 4-for-12 from the floor in the first game. Look for Lillard to play more aggressive and have a much more productive scoring game.
|05-16-19||Bruins v. Hurricanes +103||4-0||Loss||-100||16 h 30 m||Show|
The Bruins hold a commanding 3-0 lead in this Eastern Conference final. But while the Bruins have been the superior team, the 3-0 series lead is somewhat misleading. The Hurricanes nearly pulled a road upset in Game 1 leading 2-1 entering the third period before falling apart.The Hurricanes outshot the Bruins, 36-31, in Game 3 but lost 2-1. Carolina has a great home record and obviously is in must-win territory. So an all-out effort from the Hurricanes should be forthcoming while the Bruins are fat and happy. The Panthers have won five of their six Stanley Cup home games and are 9-2 overall during their last 11 home contests.
|05-16-19||Rangers v. Royals OVER 10||16-1||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
Lance Lynn versus Homer Bailey is a great pitching matchup - if this were 2012. Those two were good back then when they were in the National League and before they had arm problems. Now they are journeymen in the American League and far from locks to remain in the starting rotation. Lynn has a 5.48 ERA. He's coming off a season-high 118-pitch count against the Astros this past Friday where he surrendered three homers. Lynn has a 5.13 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals. Bailey has a 4.83 ERA. That's actually his lowest ERA in five years. He's facing a Texas squad that leads the majors in runs scored and has scored 16 runs in its last three games. The Over is 13-5-1 in Texas' last 19 games. Both team's bullpens rank among the worst. The weather forecast is a plus for the Over, too, with wind blowing to center at 12-15 mph.
|05-15-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6||Top||100-108||Win||100||20 h 56 m||Show|
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series.
|05-15-19||Angels v. Twins UNDER 9.5||7-8||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
Get away day game matchup for these two teams, which is a plus for the Under. This actually is a morning game for the Angels based on their time zone.Some regulars usually are rested in these type of situations. The Twins could be without two of their better power hitters. Mitch Garver suffered a high ankle sprain on Tuesday so he won't be in action. Nelson Cruz has missed the last two games due to a sore left wrist. Jake Odorizzi has been the hottest pitcher during his last three starts, giving up no earned runs during this span of 20 innings. The Angels are averaging three runs per game during their last three games. Angels starter Trevor Cahill looked good in his last start, an 8-3 victory against the Orioles. Cahill yielded two runs in six innings giving up four hits and no walks with five strikeouts. Both pitchers catch a break with Eric Cooper slated to be behind the plate The Under has cashed 60 percent of the time in Cooper's 86 games as home plate umpire since 2016. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the two teams have met.
|05-14-19||Blue Jays v. Giants OVER 7.5||Top||7-3||Win||100||20 h 51 m||Show|
The Blue Jays and Giants are two of the weakest offensive teams in the majors. But this is too low of a total in a pitching matchup of Trent Thornton, who has a 5.06 ERA, against Nick Vincent, who is a long reliever and has made just one career start in the big leagues. The Giants squared off against Thornton on April and won, 7-6, scoring four runs on six hits in five innings versus Thornton. The offenses could get a slight boost, too, with the wind blowing out to left at nine mph.
|05-14-19||Blazers v. Warriors -7.5||94-116||Win||100||19 h 48 m||Show|
Much is being made of Kevin Durant being out with a strained calf. But the Trail Blazers have their own injuries to deal with as Enes Kanter has a separated shoulder and Rodney Hood a hyperextended knee. Both are likely to play, but at less than 100 percent. Keep in mind, too, the Trail Blazers remain without their best big man, Jusuf Nurkic. Golden State has proven it can step up without Durant. Just ask the Rockets, who happen to be at least a tier higher than the Trail Blazers. Not only do the Warriors have home-court here, but also a favorable spot. Golden State hasn't played since Friday when it upset the Rockets on the road to end that series. Steve Kerr and his brain trust have had ample time to study the Trail Blazers and how best to utilize their players knowing Durant won't be on the court. The Trail Blazers are off a brutal seven-game series against the Nuggets that didn't conclude until this past Sunday with Portland scoring an upset road victory. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory. They can't be blamed for coming up flat here with such little time to savor their huge series win against Denver.
|05-13-19||A's v. Mariners -125||Top||5-6||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
Kudos to Mike Fiers on throwing a no-hitter against the Reds in his last start at home this past Tuesday. Fiers also threw a staggering 131 pitches. Fiers is a 33-year-old journeyman with a career losing record and a 5.48 ERA on the season. Prior to his last start, Fiers had a 6.81 ERA. I'm going to fade Fiers in an obvious letdown spot and with the A's taking to the road for the first time in a week. The A's can be dangerous at Oakland Coliseum. However, they are much worse on the road. Oakland is 5-13 away from home this season. The A's have lost nine of their last 10 road games. Fiers pitched against the Mariners opening day in Japan. The Mariners won, 9-7, knocking out Fiers after three innings by scoring five runs. Seattle is starting Yusei Kikuchi, who I consider to be the Mariners' best pitcher. The Mariners haven't been playing well. They just concluded a 2-8 road trip. But they are returning home now where they should be more relaxed.
|05-12-19||76ers +6.5 v. Raptors||90-92||Win||100||8 h 22 m||Show|
Toronto doesn't deserve to be trusted in clutch playoff games given its track record. The Raptors also have been terrible in this role going 9-18 ATS the past 27 times when favored by six points or fewer. Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the court. But Joel Embiid is close behind. Embiid had a huge Game 6 posting a plus-minus ratio of plus 40. Embiid has helped the 76ers outrebound the Raptors by 47 rebounds during the series, an average of 7.8 per game. Health is the key for Embiid. He was healthy in Game 6, which was played on Thursday. So he's had a full two days to rest. I prefer Ben Simmons over Kyle Lowery at point guard and Jimmy Butler is there to lend his considerable skill and veteran leadership to the 76ers.
|05-12-19||Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5||2-6||Loss||-125||19 h 7 m||Show|
There were seven goals scored in Boston's 5-2 Game 1 victory on Thursday. The oddsmaker wasn't fooled by this many goals being scored and neither should you. This was a tight 2-1 game with Carolina pulling the upset - until the third period. The Bruins took advantage of power play opportunities and outscored the Hurricanes, 4-0, during the final period. Carolina goalie Petr Mrazek was making his first appearance since getting hurt on April 28. Mrazek should be less rusty. Mrazek stopped 31 shots in a 1-0 overtime victory against the Islanders in his previous game before playing against the Bruins. The Hurricanes realize their missed opportunity. They will do a better job of keeping their emotions in check and playing cleaner hockey in order not to incur any penalties playing on foreign ice. That means a conservative style. They have given up two or fewer goals in five of their last eight games. The Bruins get back star defenseman Charlie McAvoy, who sat out Game 1 due to suspension. The Bruins also have the hottest goalie in the playoffs, Tukka Rask. The Hurricanes are going to have to earn any goals they might get because Rask isn't going to give them soft ones.
|05-12-19||Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||Top||10-6||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
A pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Dakota Hudson should yield at least four runs per side ensuring in an Over the total winner.Brault is making his second start of the year. He's only in the Pirates' starting rotation due to injuries to Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon. The lefty has giving up 10 runs in 12 2/3 innings resulting in a 7.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Over is 12-3-1 the past 16 times the Cardinals have faced a lefty starter at home. Hudson is on the verge of losing his spot in the Cardinals' rotation with a 4.63 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The Pirates' offense is much better with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco both back healthy.
|05-11-19||Blues +119 v. Sharks||3-6||Loss||-100||24 h 54 m||Show|
The Blues have been at their finest on the road during the Stanley Cup winning five of six times. They have been idle since Tuesday while the Sharks didn't clinch their series against the Avalanche until a 3-2 Game 7 victory this past Wednesday. St. Louis is the better defensive team and has the superior goalie. I can definitely see the Blues frustrating the Sharks here and coming away with a Game 1 victory. They are a much different type of foe than the Sharks have encountered so far in the postseason. St. Louis has won seven of the last eight times as an underdog. Jordan Binnington continued his regular-season brillance into the playoffs posting a .922 save percentage during St. Louis' second-round series victory against Dallas. Binnington was 24-5-1 with five shutouts and a 1.89 GAA during the regular season. Sharks goalie Martin Jones has picked up his play lately, but isn't the equal of Binnington. The Blues are 18-8 the past 26 times versus foes with a winning record. They haven't been bothered by Pacific Division opponents either beating them seven of the past nine times.
|05-11-19||Phillies -132 v. Royals||Top||7-0||Win||100||17 h 57 m||Show|
It hasn't been Aaron Nola nor Jake Arrieta. No, the Phillies' best starting pitchers have been Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 ratio during his last three starts.
Eflin gets the start here against Brad Keller. It's a testament on how bad the Royals are that Keller is their best picher and Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts. Keller is not in good form either going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 ratio in his past three starts.
The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored. The Royals are 16th in runs. Philadelphia has the superior bullpen.
The Royals upset the Phillies in Game 1 of this series Friday. I want the Phillies going for me in this revenge spot.
|05-11-19||Marlins +272 v. Mets||1-4||Loss||-100||17 h 51 m||Show|
Jacob deGrom looks back in dominant form. Even if that is true, I'll throw a peanut out there on the Marlins at this tremendous plus price. The Mets are a below .500 team with a below average offense. They also don't usually win for deGrom at home losing 18 of his past 24 outings at Citi Field. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is striving for consistency. He is capable of throwing a gem, though. The Marlins have enjoyed surprising good success against deGrom winning seven of the last nine times deGrom has started against them.
|05-10-19||Phillies -146 v. Royals||1-5||Loss||-146||11 h 0 m||Show|
Sometimes there is value backing a favorite. That's the case here. The Phillies are actually helped playing this opponent on the road because they have better DH options. Philadelphia came on last season and the Phillies are No. 1 in the NL East this season. Kansas City has the second-worst record in baseball. The Royals can't match the Phillies' power and are pitching Homer Bailey against Jake Arrieta. Bailey is as terrible as ever with a 5.25 ERA. The last time he had an ERA of less than 6.00 was 2014. Once in a while he throws a gem. Otherwise it remains a mystery how he can still be in a big league starting rotation. Bailey is backed by a bottom-five bullpen. The Phillies have scored five or more runs in seven of its last 10 games. Arrieta is having another solid season. The Phillies have allowed only eight runs in their last four games.
|05-10-19||Yankees v. Rays OVER 7||Top||4-3||Push||0||17 h 19 m||Show|
Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow are two huge success stories so far this season. Both have six victories. German has a 2.35 ERA while Glasnow could legitimately lay claim to being the best pitcher in the American League to this point with a 1.47 ERA. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his seven starts. So the oddsmaker certainly is justified setting such a low total for an American League game. The Yankees are a strong road Over team. The Rays have gone above the total in eight of their last 11 home games. I can see one of these two pitchers not holding up his considerable end, which would collapse an Under play due to the total being set so low. New York has gone Over in 20 of its last 27 road contests. The Yankees have a top-10 offense. They have produced four or more runs in 19 of their last 26 games. The Rays just scored 20 runs during their three-game home series against the Diamondbacks. They are expected to get back Austin Meadows, who is hitting .351 with six homers and 19 RBI's in 20 games. Meadows has missed nearly three weeks due to a thumb injury. German has a shaky history versus the Rays having posted a 7.36 ERA against them in three appearances last season, two of which came as a starter.
|05-09-19||Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5||Top||108-119||Loss||-105||21 h 59 m||Show|
If the Trail Blazers are going to force a Game 7 with a home victory here in Game 6 they likely are going to have to do it with defense. Portland is averaging 102.2 points during regulation in its last four games. Portland heavily relies on the scoring of guard Damian Lillard, who is shooting just 39.2 percent from the floor during the past four games. The Trail Blazers aren't getting much frontcourt scoring production with Jusuf Nurkic out and Enes Kanter dealing with a separated shoulder and honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset. Kanter has managed only 14 points in the last two games making just 4-of-14 shots from the field. These teams do not play at a fast pace. I envision a slow-moving, ultra intense defensive battle.
|05-09-19||Hurricanes v. Bruins -147||2-5||Win||100||18 h 14 m||Show|
The Bruins are looking like the best team in hockey. They have a lot of momentum, their top line is producing, goalie Tuukka Rask is hot and they have home ice, which means a lot against this opponent. The Hurricanes have lost during their last four visits to Boston. They also haven't played since Friday so there figures to be some rust. David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron give Boston maybe the best line in hockey. They've come through so far in the postseason with 16 goals and 32 points. Rask looked great in the Bruins' series victory against the Blue Jackets turning in a 1.71 GAA and .948 save percentage.
|05-09-19||Rangers +1.5 v. Astros||2-4||Loss||-132||18 h 45 m||Show|
The Rangers have hung in so far this season posting a 17-17 record. They have a solid starting pitching edge in this matchup with Mike Minor going against Wade Miley. Minor has a 2.40 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .190 against him. Minor has been hot since the middle of last season posting a 2.97 ERA following the All-Star Game holding foes to a .194 batting average. Minor faced the Astros early last month and dominated them winning, 4-0, at home. Minor allowed just five hits in seven innings. Miley is a journeyman type who has pitched decent this season, but is not the caliber of Minor. Miley has a bad history against the Rangers with a 2-5 career-mark and 5.86 ERA in nine starts.
|05-08-19||Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors||Top||99-104||Win||100||19 h 40 m||Show|
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there.
|05-08-19||Reds v. A's -119||4-5||Win||100||19 h 52 m||Show|
The Reds experienced real cultural shock going from homer friendly Great American Ball Park to the spacious confines and weird pitcher-friendly configuration of Oakland Coliseum as they were no-hit in Game 1 of this series by Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers, mind you, is not exactly Nolan Ryan. I don't see the Reds doing much against Brett Anderson either in the middle game of their three game series versus the A's, which marks Cincinnati's first visit to Oakland in six years. Anderson is a fragile lefty who is tough on bad teams when pitching in Oakland especially at night. The A's are 9-1 the past 10 times Anderson has started at home versus sub .500 teams. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in night games this season. Oakland has won four consecutive home games. The Reds are 17-47 during their last 64 away contests. That's a winning percentage of just 27 percent. Cincinnati is starting Sonny Gray. The A's know Gray well. Gray pitched for Oakland for five seasons starting in 2013. Gray hasn't been good since 2015 and is not in good form entering this matchup with a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts. Matt Olson is back from the injured list for Oakland. He slammed 29 homers and drove in 84 RBI's last year for the A's. There's a good chance Kris Davis is able to play, too, for Oakland. He has been out since Sunday and was close to playing last night, but was scratched at the last minute. Davis, Olson and Matt Chapman are the A's top power hitters.
|05-07-19||Stars +145 v. Blues||1-2||Loss||-100||4 h 12 m||Show|
The marketplace has pushed the line high enough where there is now definite value to back the underdog Stars. These teams are very even. Dallas has the superior defense and goalie Ben Bishop has played better than any goalie this season in my view. The Stars have proven themselves on the road, including winning twice in St. Louis during this series. Dallas has won eight of the last 10 times it has been a road 'dog.
|05-07-19||Rangers v. Pirates OVER 8.5||Top||4-5||Win||100||17 h 42 m||Show|
It might surprise you to know that Texas has scored the most runs per game in the Majors this season. If you discount a recent 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays, the Rangers are averaging 9.3 runs in their last six games. The Over is 8-2-1 in the Rangers' past 11 games. It's not hard to envision the Rangers and Pirates producting at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Adrian Sampson. The two teams played two games against one another last week and the scores were 6-4 and 7-5. The Pirates got a look at Sampson for 5 2/3 innings last week. So they'll have a book on him. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Pittsburgh offense is much more respectable with Starling Marte back in the lineup. If you take away a 14-1 loss to the A's, the Pirates are averaging six runs during their last five games. The Rangers should be able to tee off on Brault, who carries an 8.31 ERA and is only drawing a start because Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are each hurt. The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to right. That's good news for left-handed power hitter Joey Gallo, who is tied for the American League in homers with 11.
|05-06-19||Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8||Top||3-5||Push||0||12 h 37 m||Show|
Max Scherzer is the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball. He faces a Brewers lineup that will be missing perhaps their second-best hitter, Lorenzo Cain, who was hurt on Sunday and won't be in the starting lineup. Jhoulys Chacin is the Brewers' top starter. He's a huge underrated Under pitcher with the low side cashing in 16 of his last 21 starts. The Brewers will have a rested Josh Hader to pitch possibly two innings out of the bullepn. The Nationals' offense is way down due to multiple injuries. Out are Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner and Matt Adams. Only once in their last six games have the Nationals scored more than three runs. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Milwaukee.
|05-06-19||Bruins v. Blue Jackets -119||3-0||Loss||-119||10 h 16 m||Show|
I want the Blue Jackets going for me at home facing elimination in this Game 6. The Blue Jackets have been knocked out of the playoffs the past two years by the eventual Stanley Cup champion during the first round. Columbus didn't let that happen this season. The Blue Jackets swept the Lightning - the best team during the regular season - and have won eight of their last 10 home games, including going 3-1 in Stanley Cup action. The Bruins heavily rely on their top line, which has been hot. But I see John Tortorella really having his Blue Jackets clamp down on Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron at Nationwide Arena. Boston has had trouble at this venue losing four of the past five times.
|05-05-19||Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5||116-112||Loss||-110||16 h 57 m||Show|
Lost in the glare of the Trail Blazers' amazing 140-137 four-overtime victory against the Nuggets on Friday was that regulation ended, 102-102. That's a combined 204 points. Now, less than 48 hours later, the teams go at it again both facing a heavy fatigue factor. Many of the top players are coming off the heavest one-game work loads of their career. Some played an obsence amount of minutes: Nikola Jokic (64:58), CJ McCollum (60:01), Damian Lillard (57:59), Enes Kanter (56:58 on a separated shoulder) and Jamal Murray (55:03). This is unchartered territory for these players to come back strong after such a game. This is playoff basketball and the defensive intensity is sure to be up while the legs can't be there for jump shots. So I'm projecting a low-scoring, intense battle.
|05-05-19||Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||Top||1-7||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
The Phillies have gone from being an Over team early in the season to an Under team. The Under is 11-4-1 in Philadelphia's last 16 games.Phillies starter Zach Eflin is in good form, too, with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. Elfin has a 1.12 ERA at home this season. The wind also is blowing in at 12 mph. But the biggest reason why I like the Under is Washington's injury situation. The Nationals are witout four of their best players - Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Ryan Zimmerman - and likely will be minus Matt Adams and Michael Taylor. Adams and Taylor were injured on Saturday. The Phillies could be resting some of their starters this being a Sunday day game following a wild 10-8 loss to the Nationals on Saturday night. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Nationals. He has seen better days, but the Under has cashed in four of his last five starts. The Nationals' bullpen should be fine - if they don't use Joe Ross.
|05-04-19||Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 5.5||Top||1-2||Loss||-125||20 h 59 m||Show|
It's not difficult to project at least six goals being scored in this Game 5 with the series returning to San Jose. There have been at least seven combined goals during each of the Sharks' last 10 home games.Colorado is averaging 3.5 goals during its past eight games. Nathan MacKinnon is in the argument for best offensive player in the NHL. He's hot, too, riding an eight-game point scoring streak. The Avalanche have one of the most dangerous power play units in hockey. The Sharks are not strong strong defensively. They ranked 21st defensively during the regular season and have shaky goaltending with Martin Jones. Their top two defensemen are offensive-minded in constant attack mode. San Jose was the No. 2 scoring team in the league. The Over is 7-3-1 in its Stanley Cup games. The Over has won in four of the Sharks' last five playoff games. These two teams have a strong Over history, too, when meeting each other especially in San Jose where 80 percent of the past 16 matchups have gone above the total.
|05-03-19||Bucks v. Celtics -127||123-116||Loss||-127||18 h 59 m||Show|
Boston got its split in Milwaukee. I don't see the Bucks getting the better of the Celtics in this Game 3, which will be their toughest road playoff game yet. I like Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer. He deserves to be Coach of the Year. Still, he's trumped by Brad Stevens, who I regard as the best coach in the Eastern Conference. I trust Stevens to make the necessary adjustments with the teams having last played on Tuesday when the Bucks blew out the Celtics. Boston has covered six of the last seven times it has hosted Milwaukee. The Bucks are still likely to be without guard Malcolm Brogdon, who has missed the last 1 1/2 months with plantar fasciitis. Brogdon is the Bucks' best defensive player and the most underrated player on the team. This could be the Bucks' toughest game of the season - and the line is fair enough to back Boston.
|05-03-19||A's v. Pirates -110||Top||14-1||Loss||-110||18 h 8 m||Show|
The timing, pitching matchup and price all line up heavily for Pittsburgh here. The Pirates come home bolstered by a two-game road sweep of the Rangers. They catch the A's playing their worst ball, losers of six in a row all on the road having been swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Oakland is giving up 6.2 runs during this losing skid and has lost five of the games by multiple runs. The A's can be dangerous at home, but are not nearly as good on the road where they have lost the past seven times. Oakland is 1-8 in Brett Anderson's last nine road starts. Anderson has failed to complete five innings during his last two starts. He gave up six runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start this past Saturday. The A's rely on the power of Khris Davis. However, Davis has gone homerless in his last 15 games. Davis is going to play the outfield, too, because there is no DH in National League parks. Davis is a well below average on defense. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has the third-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.54 through five starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove pitched for the Astros before coming to the Pirates. He is 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA in seven appearances against the A's, including three starts. A big non-pitching key for the Pirates is the return from injury of star outfielder Starling Marter. Pittsburgh was 1-9 without him. The Pirates are 13-5 with Marte in the lineup.
|05-02-19||Sharks v. Avalanche OVER 6||0-3||Loss||-102||20 h 16 m||Show|
It's not a fluke the Over is 7-2-1 in San Jose's Stanley Cup games this season. The Sharks play fast, their key defensivemen are offensive-minded and they are vulnerable in goal. San Jose was the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL this season and have scored three or more goals in all but two of its past 12 games. The Sharks are averaging four goals per game during the first three games of this second-round Cup series. Colorado is a top-10 scoring team. The Avalanche are averaging 3.6 goals per game in their past six games. These two teams have a strong Over history, too. The Over has cashed at a 79 percent clip during the last 27 times the teams have met.
|05-02-19||Rockies v. Brewers UNDER 9||Top||11-6||Loss||-125||12 h 55 m||Show|
Don't expect to see Wednesday's offensive fireworks when the Rockies beat the Brewers, 11-4.The starting pitching matchup is much different today. It's also a get away day game, which often is a plus for an Under due to lack of player concentration and the possibility of a starter or two getting rested. The best reliever on each team also didn't pitch on Wednesday. So Wade Davis and Josh Hader, who has the stamina to go multiple innings, have no fatigue issues. Colorado starter Jon Gray usually pitches much better away from Coors Field. Gray has a 2.13 day ERA this season, too. Gray didn't pitch well in his last start against the Braves. However, in his previous three starts - two of which came on the road - he surrendered just a combined two earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Rockies have been a solid Under team on the road with the Under going 24-10-3 (71 percent) the past 37 times. Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta made his big league debut against the Rockies at Coors Field last year and was fantastic striking out 13 Rockies in 5 2/3 innings. Peralta has shown to be much more effective pitching at home during his brief major league career. He was 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at Miller Park last season with 40 strikeouts in 33 innings.
|05-01-19||Blues v. Stars -119||Top||2-4||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
I'm looking for a bounce back from the Stars, who lost by a goal at home in Game 3. Prior to that Game 3, the Stars had beaten the Blues four consecutive times at home. The Stars' special teams are playing well and their front line is due to produce more. I give the Stars checkmarks on defense and in goal with Ben Bishop.
|05-01-19||Yankees v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
First off, the roof is going to be closed at Chase Field for this game. That's a big plus for the Under. Second, the Yankees are pitching Masahiro Tanaka, who is pitching well this season yielding one earned run in four of his six starts. Arizona is averaging three runs during its last three games. The Yankees have their top arms in their bullpen available. Arizona is pitching Merrill Kelly, who has been up and down. But he has a 3.09 ERA in the day and this is an afternoon game. Kelly gets to go against a depleted Yankee lineup missing Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar and now likley DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees have never faced Kelly, which gives Kelly an edge. Likewise, the Diamondbacks haven't ever gone up against Tanaka.
|04-30-19||Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors||Top||109-115||Loss||-106||27 h 45 m||Show|
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games.
Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State.
|04-30-19||Sharks v. Avalanche OVER 6||4-2||Push||0||22 h 45 m||Show|
The Sharks have played nine Stanley Cup games this season. The Over has cashed in seven of them. It's not a surprise. San Jose was the No. 2 scoring team in the league. However, the Sharks also ranked 21st defensively and are vulnerable in net with Martin Jones. The Avalanche took advantage of that scoring four goals in Game 2 to tie the series. Colorado is averaging 3.8 goals in its last six games. If you discount a 5-0 playoff loss to Las Vegas, San Jose is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 10 games. The teams have a strong Over history in Colorado, too, with five of the last six going above the total.
|04-30-19||Bruins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5||1-2||Loss||-100||19 h 46 m||Show|
There were five combined goals scored in each of the first two games of this series. So both games went Under the total since a sixth goal was need to push it Over. There was one day rest between those games. Now we come to Game 3 of this second-round Stanley Cup series and there is a full two days rest for the first time. I expect both teams to use that extra day to sharpen their attacks and to play at a faster tempo with more energy. The Bruins have scored three or more goals in 14 of their last 19 games. During the regular season, the Bruins had the third-most effective power play and ranked 11th in scoring. The Over has cashed in seven of the Bruins' last nine road games. The Blue Jackets had an above average offense, too, during the regular season. Columbus is averaging 4.2 goals in its last 14 games. So a higher-scoring game is due. Recent history is there for this to occur as the past five meetings between the two teams in Columbus have gone above the total.
|04-29-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5||Top||113-121||Loss||-110||13 h 40 m||Show|
Portland should have plenty of energy having been idle for six days. I see that energy being exerted defensively as their jump-shooting could suffer after such a long layoff. The Trail Blazers are 7-3-1 to the Under in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets aren't going to look to push pace after concluding a grueling seven-game series with the Spurs on Saturday winning, 90-86, at home. Denver gave up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA this season. More important, the Nuggets ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense. That's bad news for Portland guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers heavily rely on the outside scoring of those two. The Under has cashed in 13 of the Nuggets' last 16 home games.
|04-29-19||Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5||Top||2-3||Loss||-113||21 h 45 m||Show|
Put Kenta Maeda among the more disappointing April pitchers this season. Maeda never has been particularly strong away from Dodger Stadium, but he's off to a brutal start this year with a 5.20 ERA. Maeda has a 7.53 ERA in three road outings this season. Yes, Oracle Park is a pitcher's park. But some of this advantage is reduced by the wind blowing out at 10-11 mph. Maeda doesn't have a good history either at Oracle Park with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances. Jeff Samardzija has been a below average starter for years. He doesn't go deep into games anymore, which bares open the Giants' vulnerable middle relief. The Dodgers have hit the third-most homers in the majors. Samardzija is 1-4 career-wise versus the Dodgers in eight appearances (six starts) with a 4.06 ERA. The Over has cashed four of the last five times the teams have met.
|04-29-19||Blues v. Stars -115||4-3||Loss||-115||18 h 9 m||Show|
This is a cheap price to get the better defensive team at home. The teams split the opening two games in St. Louis. The Stars had 10 more shots on goal than the Blues in this span. I like the Stars' combination of size and speed, especially on their No. 1 line. I also like the Stars' ability to win faceoffs especially being the home team now. These are key factors. Ben Bishop and Jordan Binnington may have been the two top goalies in the league this season. Bishop has a strong playoff track record. Binnington, though, is a rooke and he wasn't that good against the Stars during the regular season with an .879 save percentage and 2.76 GAA. Dallas has dominated this series, too, winning seven of the past nine times.
|04-28-19||Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6||4-3||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
There is value to a Sharks game whenever the oddsmaker puts out less than a 6 1/2 total. San Jose is averaging 4.3 goals during its last nine home games. The Sharks ranked as the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL in part because of tremendous offense their defensemen bring especially Brent Burns. The Avalanche should be able to keep up because the Sharks rank 21st in goals allowed and have sub-par goaltending. Colorado is averaging 3.8 goals during its last five games. The Over has a huge history when the teams meet in San Jose with a 9-1-1 mark the past 11 times.
|04-28-19||Angels v. Royals OVER 9||Top||7-3||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
Matt Harvey and Homer Bailey are a pair of retread National Leaguers who haven't been good for years. Bailey might throw a gem once in a while but his ERA since 2015 has been 5.56, 6.65, 6.43, 6.09 and 5.62. Harvey hasn't been anywhere the same pitcher since undergoing serious arm surgery. His ERA was 7.00 last year. This year it is 8.03. Both bullpens are below average especially the Royals. Neither team has an established closer with Cody Allen injured. The Over is 20-8-3 in the Royals' last 31 home games. Chad Whitson is slated to be the home plate umpire. Neary 60 percent of his games during the past two plus seasons have gone Over the total.
|04-28-19||Padres v. Nationals -101||6-7||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
I don't see the Padres sweeping the Nationals at home. Washington has had its ups and downs, but has not lost four in a row all season. Padres starter Joey Lucchesi is helped by pitching at spacious Petco Park. He had a losing road record last season with a 4.24 ERA. San Diego is 1-4 in his last five road starts. Nationals starter Jeremy Hellickson had an 0.75 ERA in two starts against the Padres last season.
|04-27-19||76ers +6.5 v. Raptors||Top||95-108||Loss||-104||21 h 44 m||Show|
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic.
|04-27-19||Indians v. Astros UNDER 9.5||3-4||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
I like both starting pitchers here and both team's have strong bullpens with elite closers. Shane Bieber is looking to come back strong after a rare bad outing. He has a 0.99 ratio and is holding batters to a .180 batting average. Brad Peacock could be a No.3 starter for many teams, but pitches for the pitching-rich Astros. He has a 1.05 WHIP and is holding opposing hitters to a .205 batting average.
Both offenses are off to slow starts. The Indians rank 24th in runs and 26th in homers. Houston ranks 17th in runs.
|04-27-19||Stars +125 v. Blues||4-2||Win||125||17 h 2 m||Show|
The Stars outshot the Blues, 29-20, in Game 1 but lost by one goal. It was a rare time this season that Ben Bishop permitted a soft goal. Bishop has been the best goalie in the NHL this season in my opinion and the Stars have the second-stingiest defense in the league. Dallas also has proved itself on the road going 9-4 the past 13 times. I don't see the Blues getting the better of the Stars a second straight time. Dallas has dominated this series recently winning six of the last eight times with two of its victories versus St. Louis this season coming by three goals.
|04-26-19||Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5||4-5||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
You might be surprised to know the Mariners lead the Majors in runs scored and homers. The Mariners scored 14 runs against the Rangers Thursday and should not encouter any resistance again today facing Shelby Miller and a very bad Texas bullpen. Miller hasn't been able to come back from a serious arm injury. He has a 7.63. ERA. If that isn't hideous enough he has a 6-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Rangers should put up their share of runs as Seattle is treating this as a bullpen game. Rookie Justus Sheffiled is going to pitch 3-4 innings for the Mariners. He's a good prospect, but he's not ready for the Majors yet. Texas has an above average offense. The Rangers rank 8th in runs scored.
|04-26-19||Avalanche +115 v. Sharks||2-5||Loss||-100||21 h 32 m||Show|
The Avalanche have plenty of momentum and is the more rested team. Colorado has won four in a row in eliminating the Flames. The Avalanche outscored Calgary, 17-7, in going 4-0 during the last four games. San Jose still may be in the clouds after rallying from a 3-0 third period deficit to edge the Golden Knights in overtime this past Tuesday in its Game 7 matchup. It's difficult envisioning the Sharks producing the kind of effort so soon after their super human effort against the Golden Knights after Joe Pavelski was injured. Pavelski isn't likley to play in this game.
|04-26-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233||Top||129-110||Loss||-110||23 h 58 m||Show|
Look for the Warriors to play intense defense after being upset, 129-121, at home by the Clippers in Game 5 on Wednesday. Golden State held the Clippers to 105 points after LA pulled a 135-131 win in Game 2. I expect a similar effort from the Warriors, who finished No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season, in this Game 6. Yes, there were 250 combined points in Game 5. But the pace was slow. The Clippers made an unbelievable 54.1 percent from the floor. They shot 47 percent from the field during the regular season. They made 42.5 percent of their field goals in Game 4 and hit only 37.2 percent in Game 3. So the Clippers' shooting percentage in Game 5 clearly was an outlier. Note, too, the two teams combined to make 44 of 48 free throws in Game 5 for 92 percent. That's certainly unlikely to be repeated, too, in this next game. Golden State actually has been a sneaky Under team. The Under has won in 18 of the Warriors' past 26 games.
|04-25-19||Stars +136 v. Blues||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||20 h 15 m||Show|
The Blues are vulnerable having last played on Saturday and catching the Stars off three straight victories against the Predators to close that series. Dallas has the better defense ranking second in the league. The Stars have arguably the best goalie this season, Ben Bishop, and the top line of the two teams with a No. 1 line composed of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov. The Blues may hold the better depth, but Dallas is riding a lot of momentum and has proven itself on the road winning nine of its past 12 away matchups. The Stars also have defeated the Blues six of the last seven times.
|04-25-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5||103-120||Win||100||18 h 39 m||Show|
Denver has made key necessary defensive adjustments to win the last two games and take a 3-2 series lead. Now it's up to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to counter. I see the Spurs doing that especially playing at home. Popovich has long been the best coach in the NBA. The Nuggets have a terrible track record when playing at San Antonio having lost 14 of the past 15 times there, are 3-7 ATS following a pointspread cover and 4-10 ATS when playing on one day's rest. Denver hasn't won a playoff series since 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are due to step for the Spurs.
|04-25-19||Diamondbacks +115 v. Pirates||5-0||Win||115||12 h 1 m||Show|
Wrong favorite. Injuries have helped cool off the Pirates. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row. The Pirates are without outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson among others and have been held to four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Arizona is 7-2 during its current road trip. The Diamondbacks also have owned the Pirates defeating them nine consecutive times in Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke versus Jameson Taillon. I like Taillon, but Greinke's current form and history make him the better choice. Greinke is 8-4 with a 1.03 ERA in 13 lifetime appearances against the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have won 10 of Greinke's past 14 away starts.
|04-24-19||Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 213||93-100||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
Utah has made the necessary defensive adjustments after getting blown out in the first two games of this series. Since then, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 97.5 points in the last two games and under 40 percent shooting from the floor. This isn't a fluke. The Jazz always have been an elite defensive club. Rudy Gobert may be the best rim protector in basketball. The Rockets have been playing excellent defense for the past six weeks. This is going to be physical, intense matchup where defense should dominate. The Under has cashed six of the last eight times the teams have met.
|04-24-19||Mariners +1.5 v. Padres||Top||0-1||Win||100||13 h 21 m||Show|
Padres rookie Chris Paddack is off to a nice start. But he is way overpriced here, enough so where I can take the Mariners plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line without having to lay monster juice. Seattle has won nine of its last 11 road games and has the much superior offense. The Mariners entered their series against the Padres ranked No. 1 in runs scored at 6.4 per game. They have scored 31 runs during their last five games. Seattle has excellent hitting depth with eight players producing at least 14 RBI's. Paddack went six innings, a career-high, in his last outing. He has thrown just 20 innings in his big league career yet is rated a huge favorite by the linesmaker here against Felix Hernandez. Sure "King Felix" is on the downside of a brilliant career, but he still knows how to pitch and he'll be helped throwing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he is 5-1 lifetime with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts. San Diego ranked just 27th in scoring entering the series. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games and 19-37 during their past 56 home games.
|04-23-19||Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5||Top||4-5||Win||100||20 h 30 m||Show|
I don't care that the last game in this series was won by San Jose, 2-1, in double overtime Sunday. There is no way you can hang less than a 6 on a total when these two teams meet even with this being the pivotal Game 7. There have been at least seven combined goals in each of the three games played at San Jose during the series. The Over has cashed six of the last eight times the two teams have met. The Golden Knights fired 59 shots in that Game 6 loss. Martin Jones played well, but he remains the shakiest goalie in the playoffs. The Golden Knights' second line of Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny and Mark Stone is due for a big game after not scoring in the last two games. They had accounted for 28 points during the first four games of the series. The Sharks are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They are averaging 3.7 goals during their last seven home games.
|04-23-19||Nets +8.5 v. 76ers||100-122||Loss||-100||9 h 23 m||Show|
The Nets have proven spunky all season, almost always coming through with a hard effort. I don't see them going quietly through the night on the brink of playoff elimination here. This has been a bitter series. The Nets are down 3-1, but the series very well could be tied at 2-2. Brooklyn blew a 101-94 lead with 5:20 left in Game 4 before losing 104-101 on Saturday. Brooklyn has covered in seven of its past nine road games. The 76ers have a vast array of talent. But they have some immaturity and don't know how to win yet, which makes them vulnerable to overconfidence in this matchup. The Nets have excellent backcourt scoring depth and I like that their coach, Kenny Gattison, has shortened the rotation.
|04-22-19||Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz||91-107||Loss||-108||20 h 0 m||Show|
It was a given the Jazz were going to produce their best effort in Game 3 at home after losing the first two games to the Rockets on the road by an average of 26 points. Utah did just that. The Jazz held the great James Harden to 3-of-20 shooting from the floor and the Rockets to 38.4 percent from the field. Yet the Rockets still won and covered beating the favored Jazz by three points. The oddsmaker is done making the Jazz a favorite again. The demoralized Jazz aren't going to be the first team in NBA playoff history to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a series. Harden isn't going to have a shooting game like that again. The Rockets want to end this series fast to keep pace with the Warriors. The Jazz lack the confidence and morale to come back here to win a game. Utah needs Donovan Mitchell to shoot well to hang with Houston and that hasn't been happening. Mitchell has made just 32.8 percent of his shots from the floor.
|04-22-19||Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8.5||Top||1-5||Win||100||20 h 53 m||Show|
Jake Arrieta isn't back to his vintage 2015 Cy Young Award season. But he is pitching very well with a 2.25 ERA while going deep into games - throwing at least seven innings during each of his past three starts. He has a 2.33 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against the Mets. New York could be minus Robinson Cano, who suffered a wristy injury on Sunday when hit by a pitch. Steven Matz should be pumped after getting buried by the Phillies in his last start. Previous to that game, though, Matz was solid in his three outings giving up five runs in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts. The Mets have a rested Edwin Diaz in the bullpen. The Phillies' lineup is somewhat depleted by injuries with Jean Segura, Odubel Herrera and hot-hitting Scott Kingery all out. Citi Field is a pitcher's park and the weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing in at nine mph.
|04-22-19||Predators v. Stars -125||1-2||Win||100||19 h 53 m||Show|
Nashville isn't just losing to Dallas, but losing big. The Predators have been outscored 10-4 in the last two games and now must win on the road here to stay alive in the playoffs. I don't see it happening. The Stars have the second-best defense in the league, Ben Bishop is in the argument for best goalie and Dallas' top line of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov is hot. Dallas has scored five goals in each of its last two games taking advantage of Pekka Rinne, who is struggling in goal for Nashville. The price is right to ride the Stars.
|04-22-19||Predators v. Stars OVER 5||1-2||Loss||-100||19 h 52 m||Show|
Dallas has produced 10 goals in its last two games. The Stars are hot and Predators goalie Pekka Rinne is struggling. The Stars should get their goals again especially if the Predators are trailing late and need to pull their goalie for extra attackers. Nashville's top line of Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg is way overdue in the scoring column. These teams have a huge history of going Over when playing in Dallas with the Over going 9-1-1 the past 11 times.
|04-21-19||Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6||Top||2-1||Loss||-114||19 h 59 m||Show|
The oddsmaker is short on this total. The Sharks and Golden Knights are good for at least three goals apiece. San Jose has scored three or more goals in four of the five games in this playoff series. Golden Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury hasn't been his usual sharp self down the stretch. He's surrendered at least three goals in four of the five games. Las Vegas has scored 11 goals in the two games played at T-Mobile Arena during the series. San Jose has permitted five or more goals in three of the five games in the series. Martin Jones is the shakiest goalie in the playoffs. The Sharks have two of the top offensive-minded defensemen in the NHL with Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. Las Vegas has two red-hot scoring lines with Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson and Mark Stone, Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty on the second line. The additions of Stone and Pacioretty have made the Golden Knights a more dangerous scoring team. These factors have helped the Over cash six of the last seven times the two teams have met. Both teams should have plenty of energy, too, as they have had two days in between games instead of the normal one.
|04-21-19||Raptors v. Magic +5.5||107-85||Loss||-105||15 h 20 m||Show|
I like the Magic in an underdog role especially going against foes with a winning record. Orlando is 16-5-1 ATS the past 22 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. I see the Magic giving it their best shot not wanting to go into Toronto down 3-1. The Magic lost 98-93 to the Raptors this past Friday. That was their first home playoff game in seven years. The Magic should be less tight now. Orlando needs Nikola Vucevic to step up. He got going in Game 3 after being kept in check the first two games of the series. Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times against Orlando.
|04-21-19||Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207||107-85||Win||100||15 h 19 m||Show|
The evidence is crystal clear. These teams have played three games so far in their first-round playoff series and the Under has won each time. The combined average score in these three games is 196.3 points. The Raptors have forced 44 Orlando turnovers and held the Magic to 37.8 percent shooting from the floor. Orlando is going to be at its most intense for this matchup. The Magic ranked fifth defensively during the regular season. So a strong defensive battle should ensue helped by both teams favoring a slow tempo. The Under has cashed the past seven times the Raptors have played in Orlando.
|04-21-19||Bruins v. Maple Leafs -113||4-2||Loss||-113||15 h 56 m||Show|
The Maple Leafs have the coaching, momentum and now the playoff experience to come through with a playoff series-ending victory against the Bruins. Boston got past Toronto in seven games during the playoffs last season. The Maple Leafs are just as explosive, but now are more well-rounded and playoff tested. Mike Babcock is a tremendous coach. It's the Maple Leafs' time to take that next step. The Bruins have lost in eight of their last 11 visits to Toronto. They don't have the Maple Leafs' explosiveness and are reeling from their controversial Game 5 home loss.
|04-21-19||Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5||4-2||Win||100||15 h 56 m||Show|
Toronto is improved defensively, but the Maple Leafs still win with their skating and explosiveness. I envision a more wide open game in this Game 6 now that the Maple Leafs are back in Toronto. Boston is going to have open things up after losing 2-1 at home in Game 5. The Bruins have the offensive talent and top line to do that. There could be plenty of late scoring, too, if the Bruins find themselves down a goal with their playoff lives at stake. The Over has cashed in six of the Bruins' last eight games.
|04-20-19||Bucks v. Pistons OVER 216||119-103||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
The Pistons haven't been able to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 25 points during the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has scored 121 and 120 points, respectively, in the series. The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. Detroit doesn't have the defense to stop them. The Over has cashed in eight of the Bucks' last 11 road contests. So the Pistons need to ratch up their offense, which they can do at home. Detroit is due to shoot much better than the 37.7 percent it is averaging from the field. It's a plus for the Pistons and the Over if Blake Griffin is able to play. He's questionable.
|04-20-19||Jets v. Blues UNDER 5.5||2-3||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
The Blues win with defense. They know if they are going to clinch this first-round series they can't get into a wide open skating match with the Jets. The Jets defeated the Blues, 6-3, in Game 3 at St. Louis. That game, though, appears to be an outlier. If you discount that performance, the Jets are averaging 1.2 goals in regulation during the four other games in the series. Winnipeg has scored just once in its last nine power play attempts spanning the past three games. The Jets also could be without their fourth-leading goal scorer, Nikolaj Ehlers. He's questionable. The Blues are averaging only 2.3 goals in their last three games. St. Louis' calling card is its fifth-ranked defense and goalie Jordan Binnington.
|04-20-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5||Top||117-103||Loss||-109||17 h 3 m||Show|
The Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio in more than seven years, losing 14 straight times to the Spurs on the road. I don't see that changing here in Game 4 of their playoff series. The Spurs should be up 3-0 instead of 2-1, but blew a 19-point lead midway through the third quarter in Game 2. They are the clear better team and they have a strong home-court history. Second-year guard Derrick White has stepped up big-time for San Antonio giving the Spurs three major weapons along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs have those players going for them along with a huge gap in playoff experience. While the Nuggets are involved in their first postseason experience since 2013, the Spurs are in the playoffs for the 22nd straight season.
|04-20-19||Blue Jays v. A's -135||10-1||Loss||-135||13 h 19 m||Show|
I want the A's going for me in a bounce back spot. The Blue Jays knocked off Oakland, 5-1, Friday night. It was Toronto's first victory against the A's after losing all seven games to them last season. It also was a pitching matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Aaron Brooks, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Now the pitching matchup is righty Matt Shoemaker versus righthander Mike Fiers. Fiers is an ace when pitching in spacious Oakland Coliseum. He is 6-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last 10 home starts. He hasn't been scored on in his last two home starts this season spanning 12 innings. Oakland is 8-1 (89 percent) in Fiers' last nine home starts. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games against a righty starter.
|04-20-19||Diamondbacks v. Cubs -130||6-0||Loss||-130||14 h 18 m||Show|
Here comes the Cubs. Chicago has won four in a row and six of its last seven. They are worth riding playing their best ball now. The buy sign is on for Yu Darvish, too, after he fanned eight in 5 2/3 innings during his last start, a 7-2 victory against the Marlins. Arizona is averaging just 2.6 runs in its last three games. Zach Greinke isn't the elite pitcher of past seasons. Greinke is still above average - but not when he pitches at Wrigley Field. Greinke has never won at Wrigley in five career starts and has an 8.31 ERA when pitching there. The Cubs have won 30 of the past 44 times at home when facing a righty starter.
|04-19-19||Celtics v. Pacers -3||104-96||Loss||-105||18 h 47 m||Show|
The good news for Indiana is its No. 1 ranked defense has held Boston to an average of 91.5 points during the first two games of this series. The bad news is the Pacers are down 0-2 in the series because their shooting has been way off. The Pacers, though, are far from outclassed. They led the Celtics by seven points at halftime in Game 1. They were leading Boston with less than a minute left in Game 2 before somehow failing to cover a 7 1/2-point underdog spread in a 99-91 loss. Sure Indiana misses its top scorer, Victor Oladipo. But the Pacers are due to shoot much better than 38.8 pecent from the floor. Boston ranks eighth defensively. However, the Pacers have failed to connect on shots in which they had a good look at the basket. Myles Turner, Darren Collison and Thaddeus Young should step up. The Pacers have a strong history of dramatically playing much better at home. The Celtics won just one of their eight road playoff games last season.
|04-19-19||Giants -101 v. Pirates||Top||1-4||Loss||-101||17 h 8 m||Show|
The Giants have had good success at Pittsburgh winning seven of the last nine times there. The Giants also catch the Pirates playing at home for the first time in 12 days. So Pittsburgh's concentration and focus may be off. It's not just history and spot why I like the Giants. The price is very good in a starting pitching matchup of Madison Bumgarner versus Jordan Lyles. Bumgarner looked like the elite pitcher he is during his last start, a 5-2 home victory against the Rockies this past Saturday. Bumgarner struck out seven and didn't walk a batter. He has a 2.84 career ERA in seven starts against Pittsburgh. Lyles has made two good starts for the Pirates. But that's not enough to convince me he suddenly has become more than just a fifth starter-type/long reliever. The Pirates are his fourth different team in three seasons. Lyles had a 4.11 ERA with the Padres and Brewers last year. He has a 5.85 career ERA in 19 appearances versus the Giants, including seven starts.
|04-19-19||Maple Leafs +131 v. Bruins||2-1||Win||131||6 h 39 m||Show|
This has been a back-and-forth series with each team rebounding with a victory following a loss. I see this pattern continuing here. The Maple Leafs lost, 6-4, at home to the Bruins on Wednesday. The Leafs were done in by not stopping Boston's power play and making stupid mistakes, which they should avoid now.The Maple Leafs are the faster and more aggressive team. They have the confidence, too, of having won a game in Boston during the series. So at this plus price, I'm going to get involved with Toronto.
|04-19-19||Raptors -4.5 v. Magic||Top||98-93||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
Nice job by the Magic in reaching the playoffs this season and upsetting the Raptors in Game 1. The clock struck midnight, though, for the Magic in Game 2 when they were buried, 111-82, by Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors are vastly superior. They could be among the four best teams in the NBA. The Magic can't hang against this type of focused opponent especially when their best player, Nikola Vucevic, can't produce. Vucevic has been held to an average of 8.5 points a game making just six-of-21 shots from the field.
|04-18-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237||Top||132-105||Push||0||19 h 3 m||Show|
Golden State has great scorers. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson helped the Warriors finish as the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA this season. But the Warriors also are good defensively. They ranked No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in 19 of Golden State's last 26 games. Look for the Warriors to play concentrated, intense defense for 48 minutes after they squandered a 31-point third quarter lead in Game 2 in losing 135-131 at home to the Clippers. The Under has cashed a staggering 75 percent the past 33 times the Warriors have played after a loss. Making things even worse for the Warriors was losing center DeMarcus Cousins with a serious quad injury. His replacement, Andrew Bogut, played a season-high 17 minutes. The addition of Bogut at the expense of Cousins is huge for the Under. The Clippers aren't as good of a defensive club as the Warriors. But with the series now tied 1-1 and the scene shifting to LA, the Warriors know they are in for a battle. So expect both defenses to be at their peak.
|04-18-19||Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6||2-5||Win||100||20 h 11 m||Show|
Martin Jones has been terrible in goal. Yet the Sharks are going to stick with him. The Sharks haven't been able to stop the Golden Knights during the last three games - and I don't see that changing here. Las Vegas is averaging 5.3 goals in its last three games. San Jose was the second-highest scoring team in the NHL this season. The Sharks should be good for at least three goals playing back at home where they won, 5-3, in Game 2. The Over has cashed in three of the four games in this series and during the past four times the teams have met in San Jose. Joe Thornton is back from suspension, which is a plus for the Sharks. San Jose has scored at least three goals in seven of its past eight home games.
|04-18-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5||108-118||Win||100||18 h 31 m||Show|
I don't see the Nuggets ending a 13-game losing streak at San Antonio and upsetting the Spurs. The Spurs have far more playoff experience. They have dominated the Nuggets for 6 1/2 of the eight quarters during the first two playoff games of this series, both of which were in Denver. The prideful Spurs should have gone 2-0 against the Nuggets, but blew Game 2 in the series after leading by 19 points nearly midway through the third quarter. Denver is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory.
|04-18-19||76ers v. Nets UNDER 227.5||131-115||Loss||-101||17 h 32 m||Show|
It's easy to envision a high scoring game here after the 76ers buried the Nets, 145-123, on Monday in Game 2. But there is one key factor to consider: Jared Dudley is expected to play for the Nets. He missed Monday's game because of a sore calf. Dudley played in Game 1 and the Nets upset the 76ers, 111-102, with that total going Under by 13 1/2 points. Dudley's defense on Ben Simmons was huge in that Game 1 win for the Nets as Simmons could manage just nine points. Simmons posted a triple/double in Game 2 without Dudley to hound and frustrate him. Prior to Monday's loss to Philadelphia, Brooklyn had given up an average of 97.3 points in its last three games. The Nets have gone Under in six of their last seven home games. The Nets are sure to have their defensive intensity going as this is their first home playoff game since 2015. It would be a huge added bonus for the Under if Joel Embiid can't go for the 76ers. Embiid is dealing with a sore knee.
|04-17-19||Flames v. Avalanche OVER 6||2-3||Loss||-105||23 h 38 m||Show|
Down 2-1 in the series, the Flames are going to be going all out here. That means attack and playing up-tempo. The Flames were the No. 3 scoring team in the league during the regular season averaging 3.5 goals a game. Yet they've been held to two goals during each of the past two games. Colorado is mediocre at best defensively. So I see the Flames holding up their end in making this Over work. Things are clicking offensively now for the Avalanche. They have produced nine goals in the last two games, firing 56 shots on net in Game 3. Their power play is back to being highly dangerous. The Over is 3-1-1 the last five times the teams have met.
|04-17-19||Astros v. A's UNDER 9||Top||1-2||Win||100||18 h 50 m||Show|
The Astros shut down the A's hot offense on Tuesday and I see them doing it again on Wednesday behind veteran Wade Miley and an elite bullpen. Miley is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in six career starts against Oakland. The A's have a strong bullpen, too, and are going with promising Frankie Montas, who just beat the Orioles, 10-3, this past Wednesday. Montas is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Much of the Astros' power is negated by Oakland Coliseum being such a strong pitcher's park.
|04-17-19||Bruins +109 v. Maple Leafs||6-4||Win||109||20 h 39 m||Show|
This series has the feel of a zig-zag type of scenario. The Bruins are down 2-1. Their top line of Patrice Bergerson, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand haven't played well in the series. These guys are too good, though, to stay down especially given their strong history versus the Maple Leafs. I see the Bruins doing what they have to do - forechecking and slowing down the Leafs by controling the puck while getting better play from their No. 1 line - to even the series. Boston has won five of its last seven road games and is 15-5 when playing on one day's rest. Keep in mind the Maple Leafs are without suspended Nazem Kadri.
|04-17-19||Giants v. Nationals -129||6-9||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
Jeremy Hellickson is an underrated pitcher being on a Nationals starting rotation that features Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Hellickson has the lowest ERA of those three at 2.25. Washington is 4-0 in Hellickson's last four home starts.The Giants are not a good road club. They've dropped 21 of their last 29 away matchups. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for San Francisco. He's coming off a rare gem, a 1-0 home win against the Rockies this past Wednesday. Samardzija hasn't proven nearly so effective on the road and against the Nationals. He is 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his last six starts versus Washington. San Francisco is 2-8 in Samardzija's last 10 starts. The Giants are 0-5 in his past five away starts.
|04-17-19||Royals v. White Sox UNDER 9||4-3||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
Lucas Giolito has been a huge disappointment given his vast potential. But there is one team Giolito has been able to dominate - the Royals. He is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in seven career outings versus Kansas City. The Royals are batting .184 against him. Giolito no-hit the Royals for six innings during his last start against them on March 31. Royals starter Brad Keller is pitching well this season and is 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in eight career appearances against the White Sox, including five starts. Keller is coming off a career-high 10 strikeouts in a victory against the Indians during his previous start.
|04-16-19||Thunder v. Blazers OVER 221||Top||94-114||Loss||-110||20 h 36 m||Show|
Portland couldn't stop Russell Westbrook or Paul George during the regular season. They couldn't stop them in Game 1 of this playoff series. Only George and Westbrook can stop themselves by having bad shooting games. That's what happened in Game 1 as Westbrook, George and star reserve guard Dennis Schroder combined to make just four of 26 shots from 3-point range. George made only 8-of-24 shots from the field in Oklahoma City's 104-99 loss on Sunday. Now we have a slightly lower total and a strong belief the Thunder will shoot much better than 39.8 percent from the field and do far better than make just 5-of-33 shots from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City averaged a seventh-best 114.5 points per game during the regular season. The Trail Blazers' defense took a hit after losing center Jusuf Nurkic for the season with a broken leg. George says he's 100 percent now after being bothered by a sore right shoulder that kept him from playing in the Thunder's final regular season game. Portland didn't shoot well either in Game 1 making only 41.9 percent of its field goals. The Trail Blazers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 114.7 points a game. They ranked ninth in 3-point percentage yet missed 11 of 15 3-point shots during the final three quarters. CJ McCollum is getting less rusty after missing 10 games down the stretch with a knee injury. Enes Kanter has stepped up well for Nurkic. Kanter is a better offensive player than defensive player. Both teams are strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. The Over has cashed in 75 percent of Portland's last 21 home contests going 15-5-1.