|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-17-19||Mariners +123 v. Pirates||Top||6-0||Win||123||16 h 24 m||Show|
Mitch Keller is the Pirates' top pitching prospect. He has yet to show it, though. Pressed into service due to the Pirates' multiple pitching injuries, Keller is struggling to solve big league hitters with an 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has a 10.97 ERA in his past three outings. Keller has given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. The Mariners rank ninth in homers and expect to activate power-hitting outfielder Domingo Santana from the injured list in time for this game. Santana is second on the Mariners in RBI's. I'm not buying Keller as a favorite in this matchup of two bad teams. The Mariners are throwing their No. 1 pitcher, lefty Marco Gonzalez. If you discount his recent starts against the powerful Astros, Gonzaez has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. He was solid in his past start, a 5-3 home victory against the Reds this past Wednesday. Gonzalez held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Pittsburgh is 14-25 versus lefty starters this season. Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games. The Pirates are home for the first time in nine days. They just were swept three games by the Cubs getting outscored by 32 runs in that series. Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its last 27 home games.
|09-16-19||Browns -140 v. Jets||Top||23-3||Win||100||129 h 1 m||Show|
I played this game early in the week before Sam Darnold was ruled out so was able to take a great money line price. I still like the Browns at the changed number, but not enough to recommend a max wager. The Browns are far from a complete team. But they have less warts than the Jets and should enter this nationally televised matchup humble, motivated and ready to prove the preseason hype about them is justified after they were embarrassed by the Titans at home this past Sunday. Baker Mayfield gives the Browns a monster talent edge at QB. The Jets defense fell apart against the Bills after losing linebacker C.J. Mosley. The Browns' offense is far superior to Buffalo's. Mosley, the Jets' defensive leader, and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams are both out. The Jets already are down injured linebacker Avery Williamson. Those are three significant defensive injuries for the Jets. Both team's have protection problems. But the Jets also have a weak secondary and lack a pass rush. Cleveland's Myles Garrett is one of the pass rushers in the NFL. He is my choice to lead the NFL in sacks this season.
|09-15-19||Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders||Top||28-10||Win||100||44 h 45 m||Show|
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good.
|09-15-19||Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5||Top||28-26||Loss||-110||116 h 25 m||Show|
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring.
|09-15-19||Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49||43-0||Win||100||44 h 29 m||Show|
New England has its best defense in years. The Dolphins have the lowest paid and probably worst offensive line in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better backup than starting QB and Miami is below average at running back and at the receiver spots. So the Dolphins don't figure to put up many points. The Patriots aren't going to show much. There's no need for them to tip their hand against such a weak foe. The Patriots have been double-digit road favorites six times since 2015. The Under has won each team. The weather is going to be brutally hot with temperatures reaching the low 100's and high humidity. This is a game the Patriots should be satisfied to sit on a lead and get their reserves in early so as not to risk an injury to a frontline player especially since they already are missing two offensive line starters.
|09-15-19||Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5||43-0||Loss||-110||44 h 26 m||Show|
I understand the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. But this number is an overreaction to what happened in Week 1 when the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens and the Patriots crushed the Steelers in the Sunday Night nationally televised game. The early number on this game, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate, was Patriots minus 11. Until that battering by the Ravens, the Dolphins had not lost a September home game since 2015. This is the weakest Miami team in a long time, but motivation, home field and New England offensive line injuries and state of mind counter the Patriots' huge talent and coaching edge. The Patriots have had trouble at this venue losing five of the past six times they have played at Miami. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past seven times hosting New England. The Patriots are without two of their best offensive linemen with center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon out. The Patriots aren't going to put Tom Brady at risk with some wide open attack when they don't need to do that to win this game. There also is no reason for the Patriots to show anything in this game. A simple, vanilla game plan featuring lots of running is what the Patriots are likely to do. The heat is going to be brutal with temperatures reaching triple digits and high humidity. Bill Belichick isn't likely to run up a score against the Dolphins, who are coached by Brian Flores. Flores was a defensive assistant to Belichick before taking the Dolphins job. The Dolphins will be taking this matchup far more serious than the Patriots because of Flores' former close association with the Patriots and also to get some redemption from last week's horror show. This is going to be Miami's Super Bowl.
|09-15-19||Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans||12-13||Win||100||40 h 25 m||Show|
This is more than just a division game, but a real rivalry. It remains to be seen just how much of a dropoff there is between Nick Foles and rookie Gardner Minshew. Foles has mostly been a backup in his career, although a top-notch one. Minshew demonstrated tremendous poise in replacing Foles against the Chiefs last Sunday completing 22 of 25 passes for 275 with two touchdowns and one interception. The Jaguars are run-oriented. Leonard Fournette is their featured player not the quarterback. Minshew has underrated wide receivers. He just has to manage this game, though, for the Jaguars to hang in. The Jaguars have an upper level defense. They were sixth in defensive efficiency last season. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is one of the few who can hang against DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans are playing on a short week after an exhausting road game against the Saints this past Monday night. The Texans have not shored up their porous pass protection particularly at right tackle. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times by New Orleans and endured 11 hits. The Jaguars have held Watson to two touchdown passes in three games and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars also have recorded 21 sacks in their last four games against the Texans.
|09-14-19||Texas State v. SMU OVER 58||17-47||Win||100||120 h 57 m||Show|
Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air.
|09-14-19||Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 51||25-27||Loss||-110||104 h 41 m||Show|
These same two teams met on Aug. 9 in Montreal. Saskatchewan won, 17-10. There were just 372 combined yards of offense in that game. It marked the sixth time during the past seven meetings in this series that the Under won. I see another low-scoring matchup here.The improved Alouettes have held five of their last seven foes to 22 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in 11 of Montreal's last 16 away games. The Roughriders have yielded fewer than 20 points per game during five of their last six games. If you discount a 40-point performance against Ottawa, the Roughriders are averaging only 17.5 points in their last four games.
|09-14-19||Montreal +7.5 v. Saskatchewan||25-27||Win||100||104 h 40 m||Show|
Montreal has been a nice surprise this season. The Alouettes are back on track winning their past three games. They have been receiving excellent skill position play from QB Vernon Adams Jr., who is 6-2 as a starter this season. William Stanback and Jeremiah Johnson have become one of the better running back tandems in the CFL. The Alouettes have proven to be road warriors covering 10 of their last 13 away contests. Saskatchewan has failed to cover during its past five September games.
|09-14-19||Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 49||47-42||Win||100||30 h 50 m||Show|
Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago. The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback. The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games.
|09-14-19||Hamilton +7 v. Calgary||18-19||Win||100||37 h 29 m||Show|
Hamilton is 9-2, but not getting enough respect here especially considering the spot. The Tiger-Cats are coming off a bye while drawing Calgary off consecutive victories against arch rival Edmonton. The Stampeders have covered only once in six games when favored this season. The teams met in Week 5 and the Tiger-Cats won, 30-23, at home. Hamilton QB Dane Evans is coming off his finest game. The Tiger-Cats are 4-1 since Evans replaced injured Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats haven't lost by more than seven points all year. Hamilton has held their last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points a game.
|09-14-19||Maryland v. Temple +7.5||Top||17-20||Win||100||24 h 60 m||Show|
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
|09-14-19||Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 49.5||13-35||Win||100||24 h 57 m||Show|
Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati. Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time. The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards. Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State. There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio. The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.
|09-13-19||White Sox v. Mariners OVER 9.5||Top||9-7||Win||100||19 h 34 m||Show|
If I had to pick the worst starting pitcher during the second half of the season the name Dylan Covey would emerge. Covery is 0-4 with a 14.26 ERA in eight second-half appearances. Covey hasn't been very good all season. He's 1-7 with an 8.14 ERA. I'm surprised Covey is getting another start having those dreadful numbers. But as long as he's going back to the mound, I'll find a way to fade him and that's by going above this total. I can't trust Seattle starter, southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, at this big of a lay price. So going above the total is the safest way. It's easy to envision these teams combining to reach double-digit runs. The White Sox are averaging 5.6 runs in their last nine games. The Over is 11-3-2 during their last 16 away games. Kikuchi has a 5.24 ERA on the year. The White Sox have the third-highest batting average in the American League against lefties. The Over is 19-8-1 in Kikuchi's last 28 starts.
|09-13-19||North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 64||Top||18-24||Loss||-120||96 h 47 m||Show|
North Carolina has yet to break the 28-point barrier in two games this season. The Tar Heels, though, have faced a pair of tough defenses in South Carolina and Miami. Wake Forest has struggled the past two years on defense. The Demon Deacons finished 116th in total defense last season. I'm not impressed with their defense this season either. So this is a big drop in class for North Carolina, which has gotten good play from QB Sam Howell and RB Javonte Williams. The Over has cashed in North Carolina's last five road games. Wake Forest is averaging nearly 40 points a game having met Utah State and Rice. Jamie Newman has come through at QB for the Demon Deacons completing 74.3 percent of his throws with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson likes to push pace and that's what his team is doing.
|09-12-19||Braves -125 v. Phillies||Top||5-9||Loss||-125||16 h 28 m||Show|
If it weren't for Washington's Dave Martinez, I would select Philadephia's Gabe Kapler as the worst manager in the National League if not all of baseball. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011. Kabler hasn't changed that in the two years he has been manager despite management getting him a lot of talent. Kapler's bizarre in-game decisions, poor bullpen management and lack of communication have hindered the Phillies. So if I can find a reason to fade the Phillies, I usually will. In this matchup there are several major factors working against Philadelphia, beginning with the starting pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Drew Smyly. Teheran is very reliable. The Braves are 16-7 in his last 23 starts. During these past 23 starts, Teheran has a 2.67 ERA. He's allowed only three runs during his past four starts spanning 25 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against him during this time frame. It took a while, but the Braves' high quality relievers they picked up at the trade deadline have settled down and are pitching well. Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the majors having won 19 of its last 23 games. The Braves have won 67 percent of their games, too, when drawing a lefty starter this season going 22-11. Smyly was terrible with Texas this year going 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He pitched better initially since coming to the Phillies on July 21. But aside from his last start against the Mets this past Saturday, Smyly has reverted back to his terrible American League form giving up 21 earned runs in his previous six games. Smyly failed to go six innings in any of those six outings before his last start. The chance to back the hot Braves with the stronger pitcher at a reasonable price has me taking Atlanta.
|09-11-19||Braves -124 v. Phillies||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
There is a class and pitching difference here that makes this a worthy investment to back the Braves. Dallas Keuchel is a "B" level pitcher, who has been throwing like his past Cy Young days. The lefty is 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA during his last five starts spanning 31 innings. The Phillies are 16-22 against lefty starters and going with Zach Eflin, who is a bottom of the rotation type starter at best. Eflin has really struggled against Atlanta this year surrendering 12 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Philadelphia can't beat a good team when Elfin starts. The Phillies are 2-12 the past 14 times Elfin has faced an above .500 opponent. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 18 of its last 22 games and seven of its past nine.
|09-10-19||Nationals v. Twins UNDER 10.5||Top||0-5||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
The Twins lead the majors in runs and homers. Yet they have gone Under in their last seven games. Surprised? Don't be. The Twins have a long injury list that is hurting their offense right now. Minnesota has been minus Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez and Max Kepler departed the Twins' last game two days ago with an upper chest injury. The result is Minnesota is averaging 2.6 runs during its past five games. The Nationals were swinging very hot bats until the past eight days. If you discount a nine-run game against the Braves in their previous game, the Nationals are averaging 3.2 runs in their last four games. There is a strong Under trend when Washington plays American League teams. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Nationals' last 45 Interleague games. The pitching matchup is Anibal Sanchez versus Jose Berrios. Sanchez didn't pitch well in his last outing. Prior to that, however, Sanchez had a 3.16 ERA in his previous 17 starts. He has a respectable 3.44 ERA on the road this season. Sanchez is a heady veteran who knows how to pitch and knows something about the Twins having pitching briefly for them during spring training last year. Berrios is an All-Star. He's given up three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his last 18 starts. The Nationals have never faced him.
|09-09-19||Broncos +1 v. Raiders||Top||16-24||Loss||-110||148 h 12 m||Show|
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb may be the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. They are in line for big games against a depleted Raiders offensive line that won't have their starting guards and likely going with untested Kolton Miller at left tackle. It's hard to imagine the Raiders getting a ground attack going against Denver minus guards Richie Incognito, who is suspended, and Gabe Jackson, out with a knee injury. I'm not high on Raiders rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Vic Fangio is an upper level defensive coach and he's had plenty of time to game plan. The Raiders have a bottom-five defense. Indications are that the Broncos' two best playmakers, running back Philip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders, are back to health. That's all Joe Flacco needs to game manage a victory here for Denver.
|09-09-19||Cubs v. Padres +130||10-2||Loss||-100||11 h 1 m||Show|
The Cubs and their starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, play much worse on the road. Chicago is 13 games below .500 away from Wrigly Field. Hendricks has a 1.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home, but is 4-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Cubs have lost six of the Hendrick's last eight away starts. San Diego starter Cal Quantrill isn't in good form. However, he shut out the Cubs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings when he last faced them on July 21. Quantrill struck out six and did not walk a batter. Hendricks started that game for the Cubs. San Diego won, 5-1. The Cubs could be down four key players. Star shortstop Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel are both out. Infielder Addison Russell isn't likely to play either after getting hit in the head with a pitch yesterday. Kris Bryant missed Sunday's game with a sore knee. So he's questionable.
|09-08-19||Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51||Top||3-33||Win||100||125 h 44 m||Show|
It's easy to think offense with these two teams. But doing that can get you in trouble with this matchup. The Patriots have their deepest defense since the early Bill Belichick days. They are especially strong at linebacker and cornerback. The Steelers' firepower isn't quite as potent without Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a worthy No. 1 wideout. The problem for the Steelers is Donte Montcrief is a weak No. 2 wide receiver and James Washington is unproven. Rookie linebacker Devin Bush should have a huge impact on Pittsburgh's defense. The Patriots have become more run-oriented. They are down at tight end with Rob Gronkowski retired and Benjamin Watson suspended. Losing center David Andrews for the season was a tough blow, too, for New England. The two teams met in Week 15 last season at Pittsburgh and the Steelers won, 17-10.
|09-08-19||Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 46||Top||17-35||Loss||-109||533 h 14 m||Show|
I see this as the high point of this over/under number with the total only dropping before kickoff. So I am recommending locking into this number now. Neither team is explosive. The Giants have a dink-and-dunk passing attack that wasn't very good even when they had Odell Beckham Jr. Eli Manning's numbers are far worse when Beckham hasn't been in the lineup. New York is down suspended Golden Tate and may not have Sterling Shephard, who has a thumb injury. Those are the Giants' two best wide receivers. Dallas has a very strong defense that is well-coached. The strength of the Cowboys' defense are their mobile linebackers. They can prevent Saquan Barkley from breaking big plays. The Cowboys are ground-oriented. Dak Prescott is more game-manager than gunslinger. The Cowboys aren't going to take wild chances in a game they should have no problem winning if they stick to their grind-out style. Ezekiel Elliott probably is 50-50 to end his holdout by game time. Obviously it's a huge plus for the Under if the rushing champion sits out. If you discount last season's meaningless Week 17 matchup, the average combined total during the past five Giants-Cowboys games is 30.2 points.
|09-08-19||Lions -140 v. Cardinals||27-27||Push||0||119 h 31 m||Show|
Arizona can't be worse than what it was last season. The Cardinals' offense certainly should be more deadly with Kliff Kingsburgy and Kyler Murray operating things. However, the Lions are a level higher than the Cardinals right now. Detroit has the running back, Kerryon Johnson, to exploit the Cardinals' weak run defense and the veteran quarterback, Matthew Stafford, to take advantage of the Cardinals minus their top two cornerbacks, suspended Patrick Peterson and injured Robert Alfrod. Stafford has reliable wide receiving weapons with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola along with No. 1 draft pick tight end T.J. Hockenson. Detroit also has an edge in place-kickers. The Lions upgraded their defensive line. It's too much to expect Murray not to make mistakes and go turnover-free. The Lions played the Cardinals on the road in last year's season-opener and won, 17-3. It was the sixth time in the last eight years the Lions have won their Week 1 game.
|09-08-19||Colts +7 v. Chargers||24-30||Win||100||118 h 21 m||Show|
This game has moved up to a touchdown now that Andrew Luck isn't going to play. The Colts, though, are solid everywhere. They are still a very respectable football team and offensive guru Frank Reich can coach up Jacoby Brissett, who brings a mobility to the QB position that Luck didn't have. The Colts have shown unity since Luck announced his retirement. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulders ready to prove to the world they are more than just Andrew Luck. The Chargers are missing key players, too, with safety Derwin James and offensive left tackle Russell Okung both injured and out. LA isn't likely to have its top running back, Melvin Gordon, either as he remains a holdout.
The Chargers have lost each of their past three season-openers. They were 2-5 ATS in their home games last season covering only against the Raiders and Cardinals.
|09-08-19||Blue Jays +185 v. Rays||3-8||Loss||-100||4 h 58 m||Show|
There is too much value to pass up on this game. Toronto starter Jacob Waguespack has had some good moments. Just three starts ago he held the powerful Dodgers to no runs in seven innings allowing just one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. He has a respectable 3.97 ERA. Tyler Glasnow will be making his first appearance for the Rays since May 10. He's been out this long due to a strained forearm. Glasnow has a very high ceiling, but he figures to be rusty and only pitch around two innings turning this into a bullpen game for the Rays. That puts a lot of randomness into the equation and makes the Blue Jays an enticing underdog at this huge plus price.
|09-08-19||Diamondbacks v. Reds -124||3-4||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
Arizona is playing well, but the Diamondbacks are overachievers. They are not some powerhouse and they are at a pitching disadvantage here. Diamondbacks starter Mike Leake is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts against his former team the Reds. The best thing you can say about Leake is that he is an innings-eater. I prefer Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, who pitches better at home and has a 2.16 ERA during his past four starts.
|09-08-19||Chiefs v. Jaguars +4||40-26||Loss||-110||116 h 19 m||Show|
The Jaguars should be closer to their AFC South Division-winning form of two seasons ago than last year's 5-11 disaster with Nick Foles taking over at quarterback from Blake Bortles. Jacksonville retains much of its elite defense that gave up the fifth-fewest points and yards last season. The Chiefs are breaking in a new defensive scheme. Their defense surrendered the second-most yards last season and is without a number of key performers, including pass rushers Justin Houston, Dee Ford and safety Eric Berry. I don't see the Chiefs' defense being any better, probably even worse, than 2018 especially early in the season. The Jaguars have revenge for a 30-14 road loss to the Chiefs last season. Jacksonville's defense played well against Patrick Mahomes, but were done in by Bortles' four interceptions, including a pick-six. The Jaguars were missing their star running back, Leonard Fournett, in that game. Foles represents a huge improvement on turnover-prone Bortles. The weather is likely to be extremely hot this time of year in Jacksonville, which would add to the Jaguars' home field advantage.
|09-07-19||Nevada v. Oregon -23.5||Top||6-77||Win||100||75 h 16 m||Show|
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.
|09-07-19||Calgary v. Edmonton UNDER 48.5||33-17||Loss||-120||89 h 23 m||Show|
These same two teams just met this past Monday at Calgary and the Stampeders won, 25-9. Look for another Under in the rematch at Edmonton on Saturday. It's a short week, which favors the defense. So does the familarity. The Eskimos should play with a great deal of intensity and be prepared for Calgary QB Bo Levi MItchell, who had been out since Week 3 until playing this past Monday. Edmonton gives up the fewest yards per game in the CFL and third-fewest points. The Under has cashed in seven of their last nine games. Calgary allows the third-fewest yards per game in the league. The Stampeders have held four of their last six foes to 18 points or fewer. They have gone Under in six of their past seven away contests.
|09-07-19||UL-Monroe v. Florida State OVER 63||44-45||Win||100||72 h 27 m||Show|
Florida State put up 31 points in the first half against Boise State opening week before not doing anything in the second half against the Broncos. That didn't sit well with Kendal Briles, the Seminoles' sharp offensive coordinator. Look for the Seminoles to put together two strong halves against a much weaker opponent. The Seminoles are playing at a much quicker tempo under Briles, who is in his first season at Florida State. They are facing an opponent that has a weak secondary. Louisiana Monroe can contribute to this total going Over, too. The Warhawks have one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference, Caleb Evans, and good depth at running back. The Over has cashed the past six times Florida State has played a non-conference game.
|09-07-19||San Diego State v. UCLA UNDER 45.5||23-14||Win||100||39 h 36 m||Show|
Both team's star running backs are banged up and at less than 100 percent. San Diego State's Juwan Washington is dealing with an ankle injury, while UCLA's Joshua Kelley didn't play against Cincinnati due to a sore knee. Both are questionable to play Neither team has a good passing attack. San Diego State's Ryan Agnew is a game-manager type while UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the worst starting QB in the Pac-12. Both teams, though, are solid defensively. UCLA was strong against the run versus Cincinnati.
|09-07-19||Nebraska -3 v. Colorado||31-34||Loss||-115||71 h 58 m||Show|
Nebraska has been waiting a year for this rematch. The Cornhuskers lost, 33-28, at home to Colorado in their opener last season. It was Scott Frost's coaching debut for Nebraska and a bitter loss for the Cornhuskers made more bitter by the Buffaloes knocking out QB Adrian Martinez. Martinez is back and better than ever. He's one of the premier QB's in the country and a level higher than Colorado QB Steven Montez. The Cornhuskers rushed for 329 yards against the Buffaloes. Colorado was fortunate to open against a weak Colorado State team. The Buffaloes weren't as sharp in that game as the final score may have indicated and are down defensively from last season. Nebraska has the balanced offense to expose Colorado's defensive shortcomings.
|09-07-19||Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7||24-42||Win||100||67 h 29 m||Show|
Purdue has an elite passing attack. The Boilermakers have a veteran QB and a deep group of receivers, including the incomparable Rondale Moore. The Boilermakers are in a kill spot playing their first home game after blowing a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead to Nevada last week in a 34-31 loss. Purdue couldn't overcome a 5-0 turnover deficit. Look for the Boilermakers to be far less sloppy and far more comfortable at home. Vanderbilt lost a number of key players from last season. The Commodores are due for a regression. They were outclassed at home by Georgia, 30-6, this past week managing just 225 yards while surrendering nearly 500 yards.
|09-06-19||Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State||Top||7-14||Win||100||18 h 25 m||Show|
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.
|09-06-19||Yankees -123 v. Red Sox||1-6||Loss||-123||5 h 35 m||Show|
Face it Red Sox nation. This isn't your season. The price is right to back the superior road Yankees, who despite multiple injuries own the best record in baseball. The Yankees have dominated the Red Sox this season winning 11 of 15 games. New York is hot, too, winners of eight of its last 10. New York has a rested bullpen, which Boston doesn't, and has a much better starter going in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus journeyman Jhoulys Chacin. German is 17-3. He's given up three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. Chacin was released by the Brewers after posting a 3-10 mark and 5.79 ERA in 19 starts this season. Chacin last started back on July 24.
|09-05-19||Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||0-10||Loss||-102||11 h 48 m||Show|
These two teams combined for 17 runs on Wednesday. Expect a far different outcome today in this early start day time get away game. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't get much love from the marketplace. Metric handicappers dislike him. Hudson, though, keeps pitching well. He has a 1.77 ERA in his last three starts. Hudson is better at home, too, where he's 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA at Busch Stadium this season. The Under has cashed in eight of his past nine home starts. Logan Webb starts for the Giants. He's one of San Francisco's better pitching prospects. This will be his fourth big league start. The Cardinals have never faced him. Webb held the Padres to one run in 5 1/3 innings during his last start. Both starters are backed by strong bullpens and a solid Under home plate umpire in Cory Blaser. The Under is 97-68 (59 percent) during the past six seasons when Blaser has been behind the plate.
|09-04-19||Mets v. Nationals -117||Top||8-4||Loss||-117||10 h 25 m||Show|
Less than 24 hours after suffering their most brutal loss of the season - and one that realistically dents any playoff hopes - the Mets must play the Nationals on the road again with this day time start. The Nationals took out Jacob deGrom and the Mets by rallying for seven runs in the ninth inning to pull out a highly improbable 11-10 victory against the Mets on Tuesday night. Before this game, teams with a six-run lead in the ninth were unbeaten this season at 274-0. That loss was the Mets' eighth in their last 11 games and puts them five games behind the Cubs for the last wild card spot in the NL. The defeat also might have sealed the fate of Mets manager Mickey Callaway. The shell shocked Mets are in no shape mentally to face the Nationals in such a short turnaround. Washington is red-hot going 20-6 inits last 26 games. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler versus Anibal Sanchez. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against Washington this season. The Nationals have scored seven or more runs in 13 of their last 16 games. Sanchez has a 3.80 ERA compared to Wheeler's 4.41 ERA. Sanchez is 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 16 starts.
|09-03-19||Angels v. A's UNDER 9.5||Top||5-7||Loss||-100||12 h 9 m||Show|
Start on May 7 and you'll find that Mike Fiers has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 11-0 since then with a 2.41 ERA holding batters to a .214 average in 127 innings. This is span of 20 starts. Fiers is a fly ball pitcher who loves pitching at spacious Oakland Coliseum where he is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA this season. He has dominated the Angels this season with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA in three starts. Angels starter Jaime Barria has a 6.10 ERA. However, Barria has shown signs of improvement lately giving up two runs apiece in each of his last two starts spanning 5 and 5 1/3 innings. Those starts were at Houston and Texas, two ballparks that are far more offensively-inclined than Oakland's pitcher-friendly Coliseum.
|09-02-19||Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville||Top||35-17||Push||0||30 h 24 m||Show|
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
|09-02-19||Edmonton v. Calgary UNDER 49.5||9-25||Win||100||152 h 44 m||Show|
It may be easy to see offense here between these two teams. But it would be a mistake. The two teams met a month ago and Calgary won, 24-18, at home. That was a combined total of 42 points. Calgary has held four of its last seven foes to fewer than 19 points a game. Stampeders linebacker Cory Greenwood leads the CFL in tackles. Edmonton gives up the fewest yards per game in the league and the second-fewest points at 19.8 per game. The Under has won 80 percent of the time during the Eskimos' past 11 road contests going 8-2-1.
|09-02-19||Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5||7-3||Loss||-105||12 h 57 m||Show|
This total is too high. But I understand why the oddsmaker set this total so high. Joe Ross isn't perceived as a good pitcher and Noah Syndergaard is coming off his worst start of the season. The Nationals are swinging very hot bats, too, scoring seven or more runs in nine of their last 10 games. It's impressive how hot the Nationals' offense is. Syndergaard can halt any attack if he's on his game. Until his last start this past Wednesday against the Cubs, Syndergaard was pitching his best ball of the season posting a 1.82 ERA during his previous eight games before the Cubs bombed him for 10 runs in three innings. I believe the prideful Syndergaard comes back with a strong performance. He's thrown quality games in eight of his past nine starts. He also has a 2.49 ERA on the season in day action. While Syndergaard is high profile, Ross is way below the radar. He was so bad earlier in the season that he was sent to the minors. But he's made necessary adjustments and has been very sharp since returning to the big leagues going 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA during his past five starts. The Under is 7-1-1 in Ross's last nine starts. The Mets have been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games. The Nationals also have their best reliever, Sean Doolittle, back from injury. Note there is a slight wind blowing out, but it is toward center field.
|09-01-19||Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||31-49||Win||100||20 h 44 m||Show|
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
|08-31-19||Twins -130 v. Tigers||Top||7-10||Loss||-130||11 h 38 m||Show|
The Tigers are home. That's great news for the Twins since Detroit is 17-47 at home. The Twins are one of the better teams in baseball. They could break the single-season record for home runs during this series. That's how powerful they are. At this low road price, the Twins are a bargain versus this opponent. The pitching matchup is Martin Perez versus Matt Boyd. These two just faced each other six days ago in Minnesota. The Twins got to Boyd for seven earned runs in six innings, while Perez held the Tigers to two earned runs in six innings. Boyd still is getting some respect from the oddsmaker. He's perceived as Detroit's top pitcher. This isn't saying much. Boyd also hasn't been respectable like he was earlier in the season. He's allowed 19 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 21 innings. Boyd's ERA during his last 13 starts is a fat 6.05. He's also given up an average of 2.6 homers per nine innings in those last 13 outings. The Twins' power hitters should feast on him. Perez, by contrast, has allowed just four earned in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. The Twins' bullpen has been very good this month. Detroit has lost six in a row, averaging 2.8 runs per game during this losing streak. The Twins have won six straight. They are averaging 8.6 runs a game during their win streak. So, yeah, at this bargain price the Twins are worth laying road chalk.
|08-31-19||Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4||Top||28-35||Win||100||172 h 41 m||Show|
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
|08-31-19||Akron v. Illinois UNDER 61||3-42||Win||100||27 h 34 m||Show|
Maybe it's a leap of faith to project these defenses to be improved. But I believe this total is too high. Akron actually has some good linebackers and a very good safety, Alvin Davis. The Zips held seven of their last 10 foes to 28 points or less in 2018. Illinois had a very bad defense last year. That's a reason why this total is so high. But the Illini have some promising young players on defense. They also figure to play ball control in this matchup running the ball alot with Reggie Corbin. Lovie Smith is a very conservative coach and he's favored by close to three touchdowns in this game. So expect Illinois not to take any chances. Just be very vanilla especially since this is the first game.
|08-31-19||Akron +19 v. Illinois||3-42||Loss||-110||27 h 33 m||Show|
Illinois isn't nearly good enough to be laying this many points even to a low-level MAC team such as Akron. The Illini have averaged three wins during the past three seasons during the Lovie Smith era. The Illini finished 1-6 in their last seven games and and had the worst defense in the Big Ten. They ranked fifth from the bottom in the NCAA in yards allowed. They are not used to this reverse role where the pressure not only is on them to win but cover a huge number. Akron won't lack motivation playing its first game under new coach Tom Arth. The Zips have firepower. Their strength is at the skill positions with quarterback Kato Nelson and three decent wide receivers. The Zips upset Northwestern, 39-34, in their first road game last season. Illinois also played Northwestern last year and lost to the Wildcats, 24-16.
|08-30-19||Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5||31-52||Win||100||154 h 50 m||Show|
The gap has gotten wider between these two in-state rivals. That was evident last season when Colorado blasted the Rams, 45-13. I see the Buffaloes winning by at least two touchdowns again. New Colorado head coach Mel Tucker will be wanting to make a statement. He has the wide edge in athletes to accomplish that. The Buffaloes should be solid on defense under defensive-minded Tucker and their offense should pick up being more up-tempo than before under Mike MacIntyre. Steven Montez is a solid quarterback and the Buffaloes are deep at receiver. Laviska Shenault is in the argument for best wideout in the nation and the Rams are shaky at linebacker. Note this game is being played in Denver. Colorado State has failed to cover the past eight times it has played at a neutral site.
|08-30-19||Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||250 h 47 m||Show|
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory.
|08-30-19||Mets v. Phillies -131||11-5||Loss||-131||17 h 30 m||Show|
There aren't many things the Phillies can count out. The one person they can rely on is Aaron Nola, who takes the mound here against the Mets. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those 13 starts. Philadelphia is a dominant 30-11 (73%) in Nola's last 41 home starts. The Phillies have defeated the Mets seven of the past eight times when Nola has gone against them. The Mets are going with Zach Wheeler, who is back in bad form with a 6.75 ERA in his past three starts. New York has lost six straight games. The Mets have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last seven games.
|08-30-19||Rice v. Army OVER 48||Top||7-14||Loss||-105||95 h 7 m||Show|
You better be able to stop the run when playing Army. Rice can't do that. The Owls ranked 112th in scoring defense and 103rd in yards given up last season. Things don't look much better for Rice this season as the Owls had several defections on their defensive line. Army has the quarterback and ground attack to take advantage. The Black Knights finished No. 2 in rushing last season. Army QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was the first player in Army history to run and pass for more than 1,000 yards. Rice has excellent depth at wide receiver and at running back. The Owls even have a good tight end. Army's defense is down several key seniors from a year ago and has some vulnerability at linebacker that Rice can exploit. The Over is 12-3-2 the past 17 times Rice has played a non-conference opponent.
|08-29-19||Chiefs v. Packers -140||Top||20-27||Win||100||28 h 57 m||Show|
Due to bad stadium conditions, the Packers held nearly all of their starters and top backups out last week against the Raiders in Canada. New Packers coach Matt LaFleur needs to see more to know about his team especially viewing a spirited battle between Tim Boyle and DeShone Kizer for the backup QB spot. The strength of the Packers is their wide receiving depth, which has eight players worthy of roster inclusion. The Chiefs' major weakness is cornerback depth. Indications are the Chiefs are taking this final preseason game much less serious than the Packers. Kansas City won't risk its starters, nor many of its backups either. The Chiefs just lost backup QB Chad Henne to a broken ankle. They signed veteran Matt Moore, but he won't be ready to play Thursday. That leaves the QB rotation to Kyle Shurmur and Chase Litton, neither of whom is good enough to likely make the Chiefs roster. Their combined preseason passing figures are 40-for-72 (55 percent) completions for 387 yards.
|08-29-19||UCLA v. Cincinnati UNDER 58||14-24||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
This total has been bet down, but there still is value on the Under. The teams met in their opening game last year and the Bearcats won, 26-17. Cincinnati held UCLA to just 306 total yards of offense. The Bearcats led the AAC in scoring defense and run defense last season. Their defense should be tough again this year. I'm not sold either on UCLA sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. UCLA has good size on its defensive line. Cincinnati does possess excellent talent at the skill positions. However, the Bearcats have an inexperienced offensive line. Look for both teams to stay on the ground a lot, which eats clock. When the Bruins throw it could be short passes to their running backs.
|08-28-19||Rangers v. Angels OVER 10||3-0||Loss||-100||11 h 9 m||Show|
The Rangers are going to open with Emmanuel Clase. But from there the pitching matchup will be Ariel Jurado versus Patrick Sandoval. Need I say more? OK, both bullpens are overworked, depleted and bad. Jurado has a 7.52 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last eight starts. So why is he still in the Rangers' rotation? Good question. Sandoval is set to make his fourth career big league start, which is four too many given his track record. He has yet to win and carries a 6.75 ERA. The Rangers just saw Sandoval a week ago at home and got to him for four runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings. The Over has cashed in eight of the Angels' last nine home games.
|08-28-19||Twins -1.5 v. White Sox||Top||8-2||Win||100||18 h 57 m||Show|
The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank No. 2 in runs. The White Sox are 28th in runs and 26th in homers. Expect the Twins to pad their homer lead with the wind blowing out strong to left field at 13-16 mph and facing 33-year-old Ross Detwiler, who has surrendered 15 homers in 47 1/3 innings this season. Minnesota is 41-22 on the road. That's the second-most away wins in the majors. The Twins are 8-2 in Jake Odorizzi's last 10 road starts. Odorizzi is pitching on six days rest. That's important since he is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA when he's pitched on extra rest this year.
|08-27-19||Indians -131 v. Tigers||Top||10-1||Win||100||17 h 33 m||Show|
If you can't beat righthanders you're not going to have a very good record. Detroit has the lowest winning percentage in baseball. One reason for this is the Tigers losing 45 of the past 55 times against a righty starter. Cleveland is going with righty Adam Plutko. He's settled into being a solid No. 4 type pitcher for Cleveland with a 3.53 ERA in his past six starts. The Indians are 11-4 in Plutko's last 15 starts. The Tigers are going with Spencer Turnbull, who hit the wall a long time ago. Detroit is 1-10 in Turnbull's last 11 home starts. The Indians were idle Monday giving them an extra day to stew about a tough 9-8 Sunday loss to the Royals. Cleveland should take out its frustrations on its favorite patsy as Detroit is 1-12 versus the Indians this season.
|08-26-19||Dodgers v. Padres +147||Top||3-4||Win||147||22 h 45 m||Show|
I don't normally go against the Dodgers. But they are 34-28 on the road. That's certainly respectable, but nothing like their mind-boggling 52-18 home record. The Dodgers have trouble when facing Eric Lauer. San Diego is 5-1 in Lauer's six career starts versus the Dodgers. Laurer has a 1.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in these appearances. The Dodgers are batting only .175 against Lauer this season. Lauer has a 3.10 home ERA on the season. The Padres are 5-2 in his past seven starts at Petco Park. The Dodgers have been in a scoring slump scoring three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. Dodgers rookie Dustin May has a high ceiling. But he's up-and-down right now. May last pitched eight days ago in relief. He gave up four runs on three hits and a walk in two innings versus the Braves. The Padres went up against May on Aug. 2 getting to him for four runs - three of which were earned - and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Padres have already set a franchise-record for home runs in a season with 190.
|08-25-19||Braves v. Mets UNDER 9||Top||2-1||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
The pitching matchup, weather and home plate umpire. Plus line value. Add up all those factors and you understand why I like the Under here. Braves starter Dallas Keuchel has yielded just one run in his past two starts spanning 12 innings. He just faced the Mets 11 days ago and held them scoreless over five innings. The Under is 9-2-1 in Keuchel's 12 starts with the Braves. Steven Matz is pitching well for the Mets with a 1.89 ERA in his past three starts. Matz has been really solid during the second half of the season posting a 2.81 ERA during his last seven starts. He's surrendered two earned runs or fewer six times in this span. Matz is tough at Citi Field with a 2.08 home ERA this season. The wind is blowing in at 13 miles per hour and Gary Cederstrom is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 15 of his 24 games as home plate umpire this season for an Under percentage of 63 percent.
|08-25-19||Braves +111 v. Mets||2-1||Win||111||11 h 44 m||Show|
The Braves are the superior team. Steven Matz is a strong home pitcher for the Mets. But I like Dallas Keuchel and the hot Braves in an underdog role. Atlanta has won seven in a row. They have won 12 more games than the Mets.
The Braves rank sixth in scoring. The Mets, by contrast, rate 16th in runs.
|08-24-19||Hamilton v. BC +4.5||13-10||Win||100||120 h 14 m||Show|
These teams just met two weeks ago at Hamilton. BC outgained Hamilton by 98 yards and dominated time of possession, 37:01 to 22:59. But The Tiger-Cats nipped BC, 35-34. The key was the Lions committing three turnovers while the Tiger-Cats didn't have any. I like the LIons to get their revenge. They have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played this past Thursday while Hamilton had to play last Saturday. The Lions have covered four of the past five times hosting Hamilton.
|08-24-19||Angels v. Astros OVER 10||Top||2-5||Loss||-108||16 h 10 m||Show|
Dillon Peters isn't fooling anyone. Now he faces the Astros, who rank in the top-5 in nearly all of the major hitting categories, including runs, batting average and homers. The southpaw Peters has a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts allowing 22 baserunners in 16 innings during this span.The Astros rank third in the majors in batting average and slugging percentage against lefthanders. Peters isn't likely to go deep into the game. The Angels' overworked bullpen is limping toward September, bruised and battered. The Angels could do damage, though, going against Wade Miley, who has surrendered six earned runs in his past two starts spanning nine innings. It could have been worse, too. Miley is lucky to have surrendered six runs in this time frame as he's allowed 19 hits in these last two outings. Houston's bullpen has been disappointing lately. The Astros are minus injured Ryan Pressly, one of the top setup men in baseball. The Angels have produced an average of 5.8 runs in their last 12 games.
|08-23-19||Browns v. Bucs +3||Top||12-13||Win||100||58 h 10 m||Show|
Beating preseason football is about finding teams who care meeting those who don't while also getting value on the line. This pattern fits the Buccaneers right now in their Friday home game against the Browns. Tampa Bay has been preparing for this matchup like it were a regular-season game. Jameis Winston figures to see his most action. The Buccaneers have a deep set of quality wide receivers and a preseason superstar in backup quarterback Ryan Griffin, who has thrown for 531 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in Tampa Bay's first two preseason contests. Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said he won't reveal how much his starters are going to play Friday, but indications are the Browns won't be treating this exhibition as serious as Tampa Bay. Cleveland is sitting at 2-0 with nothing to prove. The Browns aren't likely to use Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett because they aren't 100 percent. Cleveland is a false favorite here based on perception with its unbeaten preseason record and tremendous hype. The Bucs are home and the likely team to treat this game more serious than the Browns.
|08-23-19||Nationals v. Cubs -121||9-3||Loss||-121||13 h 29 m||Show|
If the Cubs played all of their games at Wrigley Field they would rank with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers as a super power. Chicago is 44-19 at home. The price is low enough to back the Cubs at home in a pitching matchup of Anibal Sanchez versus Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's last 61 games at Wrigley Field. Lester looked back to normal during his last start going six shutout innings against the Pirates on the road last Saturday. The southpaw has a 3.13 day time ERA. The Nationals are just one game above .500 when facing a lefty starter. Sanchez may be hitting the wall. He's given up eight runs during his last two starts spanning nine innings. Sanchez has allowed 15 hits and five walks during these past nine innings. Chicago has rested Craig Kimbrel to close, while the Natoinals lack a closer with Sean Doolittle, their best reliever, on the DL.
|08-22-19||Blue Jays v. Dodgers -1.5||Top||2-3||Loss||-124||20 h 43 m||Show|
The Dodgers simply don't lose at home. They have won 79 percent of their last 57 home games going 45-12. No baseball team can match that.Toronto went through its bullpen trying to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays came close, but lost, 2-1, in 10 innings. I don't see the Blue Jays being able to hang against the Dodgers a second straight time in a pitching matchup of rookie Jacob Waguespack versus Kenta Maeda. Prior to Wednesday, the Dodgers' last six victories were by an average of 8.3 runs. Waguespack has a 4.20 ERA. The Dodgers rank in the top four in runs and homers. Maeda has a history of pitching much better at Dodger Stadium. That history has held up this season where he is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home. LA has won eight of his past 11 home starts. Toronto has dropped 14 of its last 17 interleague games, including the past eight when going against a righty starter.
|08-21-19||Indians +141 v. Mets||3-4||Loss||-100||16 h 16 m||Show|
Sorry, but I'm not sold on the Mets as a serious playoff contender. Not when they aren't pitching Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, which is the case here. New York is 19-5 in its last 24 games. But 16 of those victories have come against the Padres, Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Those five teams are a combined 111 games under .500! The Indians have gone on a second-half surge to go 22 games above .500. They are 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Marcus Stroman goes for the Mets. New York is 3-0 in Stroman's three starts. However, Stroman has a 5.17 ERA in those outings. The Indians are averaging 6.2 runs in their last nine games. Adam Plutko is a bottom of the rotation starter for Cleveland. But he's decent. He just beat the Yankees - a far superior offensive team to the Mets - last Wednesday limiting the Yankees to three runs in six innings. Cleveland is 8-2 the past 10 times Plutko has started.
|08-21-19||Angels v. Rangers -121||Top||7-8||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
I don't know if this is a case of giving Patrick Sandoval too much respect, or All-Star Mike Minor getting too little respect. It's likely a case of both. Nonetheless, the bottom line here is the Rangers are underpriced. Minor is worthy of being a much stronger favorite pitching at home against the Angels, who aside from superstar Mike Trout just aren't very good. Minor is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during his last four starts. The lefty is 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA in a dozen home starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 3-0 mark the past two years in five starts against the Angels. LA is 17-25 versus southpaw starters on the season. The Angels also have dropped nine of their last 12 road matchups. Sandoval is one of those young Angels starters being force fed to major league hitters due to injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs. The lefty has a 5.79 ERA. He isn't ready, in my view, to be in a big league starting rotation. The Rangers are 6-2 the past eight times they've gone against a lefty starter.
|08-20-19||White Sox v. Twins -1.5||Top||4-14||Win||100||17 h 59 m||Show|
Returning home following a 5-1 road trip, the Twins were knocked off by the White Sox, 6-4, on Monday. It was just the fourth time in the last 15 meetings the White Sox have defeated Minnesota. I don't see the Twins losing a second straight time to Chicago at home. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez had been pitching well - until this past Thursday when he was tagged for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank second in runs. Nelson Cruz, Minnesota's second-leading home run hitter with 32, has recovered from a wrist injury and is back in the lineup. Lopez has struggled versus Minnesota in his career with a 5.46 ERA in five starts. Twins starter Michael Pineda has been amazing consistent yielding three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts. Pineda has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in six starts. Minnesota has won by more than one run during 10 of its last 11 victories.
|08-19-19||Nationals -120 v. Pirates||Top||13-0||Win||100||19 h 55 m||Show|
The Orioles and Tigers are the two worst teams in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Pirates can join those two teams in the discussion of who is the worst. Pittsburgh is 7-27 post All-Star break. Washington is 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Nationals have the third-best record in the National League. Yet we have a very low opening line lay price for the Nationals. Why is that since the Nationals clearly are at least two levels higher than Pittsburgh? Trevor Williams gets the start for the Pirates. But that doesn't answer the question since Williams hasn't been very good with a 6.92 ERA in his last seven starts spanning 39 innings. The Nationals are swinging extremely hot bats averaging 9.4 runs during their past seven games. The answer then may lie in who Washington is starting on the mound: Joe Ross. His season numbers show a 5.91 ERA. That is misleading, however. Ross has been the Nationals' top pitcher if you go by the past three starts. Ross has fixed his mechanics and made key adjustments. These changes have helped him go 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his past three starts spanning 18 innings. The Pirates have the better closer, Felipe Vazquez. The Nationals have upgraded their middle and setup relief, though. It's doubtful if the Pirates will even get to use Vazquez. Pittsburgh is averaging only two runs per game during its last four games. It's also a bad situational spot for the Pirates as they had to play in the Sunday night game, which was played in Williamsport, Pa., against the Cubs in the MLB Little League Classic.
|08-18-19||Mets v. Royals UNDER 10||Top||11-5||Loss||-110||13 h 9 m||Show|
When it comes to pitching at Kauffman Stadium, Glenn Sparkman isn't bad. He carries a 2.84 ERA in 12 home starts this season. I see Sparkman and his counterpart, Zach Wheeler, keeping this a low-scoring, tight game. Each pitcher is helped by the opposition's weak offense and this being a Sunday game where usually several starters are rested. The Mets' offense is average at best. New York has failed to score more than four runs in six of its last seven games. Wheeler has pitched much better in the second half of the season. He is a solid pitcher who tends to get overlooked being on the same staff as Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Wheeler has permitted three earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. Kansas City has a bottom-four offense. The Royals are averaging only 2.5 runs during their last six games.
|08-17-19||Marlins v. Rockies OVER 12||4-11||Win||100||17 h 19 m||Show|
German Marquez is bad at home, which is understandable since home is Coors Field.Hector Noesi is bad no matter what field he pitches on. Match the two together at Coors Field and expect more than a dozen runs to be scored especially since the Marlins have a below average bullpen while Colorado's relief pitchers have been highly disappointing particularly Wade Davis. Noesi is 32. This is his third start. He's 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA. Those starts came in two pitcher's parks, too, Marlins Park and Citi Field against the Mets. Now Noesi toes the rubber in the premier hitter's park in the majors. Marquez isn't a bad pitcher. He just doesn't pitch well at Coors where his ERA is 6.45. The Over has cashed in eight of his last 10 home starts.
|08-17-19||Montreal +7 v. Calgary||40-34||Win||100||57 h 40 m||Show|
Quarterback injuries factor here. So does getting this many points in an inter-division matchup. Vernon Adams has been taking first team reps so he should be back under center for Montreal. It's not so certain if Bo Levi Mitchell will return for Calgary. Sources say he has a sore arm. The Stampeders are likely to be without two starting linebackers, too. That's a huge plus for William Stanback, who is in the argument for best running back in the CFL. He's the league's second-leading rusher. Montreal also gets back deep threat DeVier Posey, who has missed the last three games with a calf injury.
|08-17-19||Patriots v. Titans OVER 41||Top||22-17||Loss||-108||33 h 11 m||Show|
Both teams have strong preseason quarterback rotations and should be looking to air the ball out with their reserve QB's. The Patriots have scored 31 or more points in eight of their last 10 preseason games. The Over is a perfect 9-0 the past nine seasons during New England's second preseason game. Tennessee is 6-0 Over the last six years during Week 2 of the preseason. Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham should put up big numbers for New England in the preseason. Stidham looked impressive going 14-for-24 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions against the Lions last week. The Titans defeated the Eagles, 27-10, in their opening preseason matchup. Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside each threw two TD passes in that contest. The Titans have better depth offensively this season. The Titans will be a running team once the regular season begins. But during preseason they will be throwing a lot with their backup QB's knowing Marcus Mariota is in a contract year.
|08-17-19||Hamilton v. Ottawa +4||21-7||Loss||-110||103 h 0 m||Show|
Don't be fooled by Hamilton running away with the East Division. The Tiger-Cats are 5-0 at home, but 1-2 on the road. They have failed to cover four of their last five away contests. It's a dangerous spot, too, for the Tiger-Cats laying points to a hungry and frustrated Ottawa team after going all out last week to nip BC, 35-34. The Tiger-Cats pulled off that victory by coming from 15 points down in the fourth quarter. This is a much bigger game for the Redblacks being home and saddled with a 3-5 record. The Redblacks have covered the past four times they've met the Tiger-Cats and are 7-3 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
|08-17-19||Hamilton v. Ottawa UNDER 50||21-7||Win||100||103 h 59 m||Show|
This is a huge game for Ottawa. The Redblacks have been playing solid defense holding their past three foes to an average of 20 points a game. Ottawa catches Hamilton in a letdown spot after the Tiger-Cats pulled off a stunning fourth-quarter rally to nip BC last week. Keep in mind, the Tiger-Cats are without their starting quarterback, injured Jeremiah Masoli. The Redblacks have a strong Under history versus Eastern Conference teams with the low side cashing 13 of the last 19 times.
|08-16-19||White Sox +115 v. Angels||Top||7-2||Win||115||20 h 48 m||Show|
Injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs have left the Angels force-feeding young unprove pitching prospects. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval falls into that category. Sandoval draws the start here against All-Star Lucas Giolito. Sandoval has a 5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 innings. This will be his second big league start. He isn't ready to be pitching in the majors. The Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. They have a burned out bullpen and are extremely weak in the middle infield with underrated shortstop Andrelton Simmons out. Giolito hit a bump in a couple of July starts, but is back on track with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts in which he has fanned 30 batters in 19 innings. Chicago is 8-3 in Giolito's last 11 road starts. The White Sox are 12 games under .500 on the year. Hence, the Angels opening a favorite despite the huge starting pitching disparity. However, the White Sox are much better against lefthanded starters. Chicago's record versus lefties this season: 23-18. The White Sox are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a southpaw starter.
|08-15-19||White Sox +162 v. Angels||7-8||Loss||-100||21 h 54 m||Show|
The oddsmaker is overlooking how well Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching and how strong the White Sox have been against lefthanded starters by making the Angels such a big favorite in a pitching matchup of Lopez versus southpaw Andrew Heaney. The White Sox are 11 games under .500 on the season. However, they are 23-17 against southpaw starters, including winning the past six times they have faced them. Heaney has been inconsistent and is rusty. This is only his second start in nearly a month as he been sidelined by shoulder inflammation. Heaney pitched 3 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his last outing this past Saturday giving up one earned run. The Angels are vulnerable in the bullpen. The White Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games and off a 13-9 victory against Houston. Lopez has been one of the best pitchers post All-Star break but remains below the radar. He has a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts surrendering just one homer during this span. Chicago is 5-1 in Lopez's past six road starts.
|08-15-19||Raiders v. Cardinals -3||Top||33-26||Loss||-110||28 h 32 m||Show|
Barnum & Bailey otherwise known as the Oakland Raiders' traveling circus visits the desert Thursday. Arizona hosts Oakland looking to go 2-0 in preseason under rookie NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury.The Cardinals opened with a win and cover beating the Chargers, 17-3, at home last Thursday. Kingsbury certainly wouldn't mind cheering up long-suffering Cardinal fans with another home victory as this will be Arizona's final preseason home game. The Cardinals conclude preseason with road matchups against the Vikings and Broncos. The Raiders have a huge disadvantage playing on the road in a short week after defeating the Rams, 14-3, at home this past Saturday night. It's been a crazy week for the Raiders with Hard Knocks filming and Antonio Brown hogging headlines with his insane antics. So the Cardinals check the boxes when it comes to situation, being the more focused team and motivation in laying positive groundwork for a new coach. Another key in preseason is quarterback rotation. I like what the Cardinals have compared to the Raiders. Kyler Murray played a series last week. He is expected to play longer against the Raiders as the Cardinal need to get their rookie signal-caller more actual game experience. The Raiders don't need to do that with their starter, Derek Carr. I like Murray better than Carr given Murray's mobility and high ceiling. I also prefer Brett Hundley, Arizona's second-string quarterback, much more than Oakland backup quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. Hundley is one of the better preseason quarterbacks. He was 10 of 14 for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week. The immobile Glennon was picked off twice without throwing a touchdown pass in his 2019 preseason debut last Thursday. As for Peterman, the less said the better. He is not only one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but in NFL history. This is the start - and possible - end of Peterman's NFL career after two seasons with Buffalo where he compiled passer ratings of 30.7 and 38.4 with a 3-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
|08-14-19||Mets v. Braves -131||4-6||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
This matchup pits a battle of lefty starters, Steven Matz versus Dallas Keuchel. I want Keuchel and the Braves going for me. Atlanta is 17-10 versus southpaw starters, including winning 11 of the last 16 times when drawing a lefthanded starter. The Mets have a losing record when going up against a lefty starter. Keuchel won't lack motivation coming off his worst as a Brave. He was racked for eight runs on 10 hits in only 3 2/3 innings this past Thursday against the Marlins in Miami. The prideful Keuchel is much better than that. He has made four home starts for the Braves and has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in those games. The Mets have never faced him. New York also is likely to be without second baseman Jeff McNeil, the second-leading hitter in the NL. McNeil suffered a leg injury on Tuesday night. Matz has a 6.23 ERA in three starts against the Braves this year The Mets have lost five of Matz's last six away starts.
|08-14-19||Pirates v. Angels UNDER 10||Top||4-7||Loss||-120||18 h 33 m||Show|
On the surface it seems like there could be double-digit runs scored in this game. But there are key below-the-radar elements that point to the Under getting the money. Chris Archer has been a major disappointment. Lately, though, Archer has been better. He has given up three earned runs in his last two starts going six innings each time. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in these two outings is 15-to-2. Angels starter Dillon Peters has been respectable since coming up from the minors. He's allowed eight runs in his past four starts spanning 22 2/3 innings. He has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his past two starts. This is a rare 5:05 PDT start time in Anaheim. The Angels usually start their evening games two hours later. Shawdows are extremely tough on the batters during the first few innings when the Angels play at home during this time. Note, too, that Cory Blaser is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 96-68 (59 percent) the past six seasons when Blaser has been behind the plate.
|08-13-19||Mets v. Braves -123||3-5||Win||100||18 h 8 m||Show|
The Braves are better than the Mets. The Braves are home and I don't see Zach Wheeler having any edge on lefty Max Fried. So at this price, the Braves are a bargain. Wheeler has been pitching well. I like him. But he's not in the Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard talent level. Wheeler has a 4.50 ERA in two starts versus Atlanta this season. Fried has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his past four starts with 25 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings during this span. The Mets hold a losing record versus southpaw starters. Atlanta does have bullpen concerns. But so do the Mets. Edwin Diaz has an 11.12 ERA in his last six appearances. The Braves are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Mets.
|08-13-19||Mariners +151 v. Tigers||11-6||Win||151||18 h 57 m||Show|
Anytime the Tigers are laying this kind of price, I'm at the window fading them. Detroit has lost 41 of its last 51 games. They are an MLB-worst 16-41 at Comerica Park. Ty Cobb would be rolling around in his grave if he could witness how bad these Tigers are. The Tigers are big chalk because supposedly they have their best pitcher, Matthew Boyd, going while Seattle is pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who hasn't won during his past seven starts. Kikuchi pitched well, though, in his last outing holding the Padres to one run on four hits in five innings with eight strikeouts this past Wednesday. Boyd was terrible during his last start getting rocked for five runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Royals this past Thursday. Boyd yielded six hits, including three homers in that loss. Detroit has dropped 13 of Boyd's last 16 starts. Seattle, like the rest of the American League, knows how to beat the Tigers. Seattle is 17-4 in its past 21 games versus Detroit.
|08-11-19||Indians v. Twins -143||Top||7-3||Loss||-143||13 h 45 m||Show|
The Twins are 25-10 the past 35 times Jose Berriors pitches at home. One of those losses, though, occurred the last time Berrios pitched at Target Field. That came this past Tuesday against Atlanta. The Braves blasted Berriors scoring nine runs on him in fewer than six innings. It was one of Berrios' worst days of his career. Prior to that, however, Berrios had gone 12 straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. He is an elite pitcher and extremely reliable. His home ERA is 3.15. His day time ERA is 3.20 I trust Berrios to come back strong following that rare humiliation. He's facing rookie Aaron Civale, who will be making back-to-back big league starts for the first time. This will be the toughest test Civale has faced. Minnesota ranks first in the majors in homers and is second in runs. The Indians, by contrast, rate 20th in homers and 19th in runs.
|08-10-19||Rams +5 v. Raiders||Top||3-14||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
There is a time when Blake Bortles is useful. That time is now. Bortles is now the backup quarterback for the Rams. He's going to see extended playing time against the Raiders. Bortles loves Sean McVay's scheme and system.The Rams will be holding out their star skill position players. Bortles, though, has worked extensively with the second unit. So he already has a rapport with Mike Thomas and JoJo Natson. The Rams have an underrated running back, rookie Darrell Henderson. He could make his mark in this game as the Raiders' defense doesn't look much better than last season's unti that gave up an NFL-worst 29.2 points per game and had only 13 sacks. The teams have held joint practices the past couple of days and the Rams have come away as the far superior team, which they are. The Rams beat the Raiders, 19-15, at home during preseason last year. The Raiders also have been distracted by the filming of Hard Knocks and Antonio Brown's ridiculous behavior.
|08-10-19||A's v. White Sox +159||Top||2-3||Win||159||18 h 50 m||Show|
Reynaldo Lopez is flying below the radar screen. Tanner Roark should never be a favorite in this high range. But the two together and you have a strong underdog value play on the White Sox. Lopez has been one of the hotter post All-Star break pitchers going 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his last five starts. Lopez has 34 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings during this span. Lopez has tamed the A's during his career, too, with a 1.50 lifetime ERA against them in two starts. Roark is a true mediocrity with a 7-7 mark and 4.14 ERA. Oakland has a losing record in his last seven road contests.
|08-09-19||Vikings v. Saints OVER 37||Top||34-25||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
Given the quarterback situation this preseason matchup has a good chance of going Over. New Orleans has Teddy Bridgewater and multi-purpose Taysom Hill backing up Drew Brees. They are two excellent quarterbacks for preseason. The Saints averaged 25.7 points in preseason last year. Bridgewater was extremely popular with the Vikings before he went to New Orleans. The Vikings aren't going to be blitzing him given Bridgewater's injury history. The Vikings need to find a third wide receiver. They are going to be a running team this year. So they won't want to show too much of that in this game. That means they could be passing more than usual. Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter are decent preseason quarterbacks, too.
|08-08-19||Chargers v. Cardinals -135||Top||13-17||Win||100||35 h 26 m||Show|
The Cardinals have more motivation to win this home game in Kliff Kingsbury's NFL debut. The Cardinals also have the better quarterback rotation as Philip Rivers is not going to play. The Cardinals are going to play up-tempo as Kingsbury's offense is similar to Chip Kelly's. NFL teams aren't prepping or game-planning for this specialized style during preseason especially in their opening exhibition game. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is more concerned about fixing his offensive line with left tackle Russell Okung out. Lynn is beginning his third season with the Chargers. His team lost, 24-17, to the Cardinals on the road in their preseason opener last year. The Chargers under Lynn also lost their preseason opener two years ago, losing 48-17 to Seattle at home.
|08-07-19||White Sox -105 v. Tigers||Top||8-1||Win||100||11 h 16 m||Show|
The 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The 1962 New York Mets. The 2019 Detroit Tigers. Yes the Tigers are getting to be historically that bad having lost 30 of their last 35 home games. Detroit is 9-48 in its last 57 games against a righty starter and draw a hot Ivan Nova here. Nova is pitching his best ball of the season and maybe of his career with a 0.90 ERA during his last three starts. He's held the Marlins, Twins and Phillies to two earned runs in 20 innings during this span giving up 11 hits and three walks. The Tigers are second-to-last in runs, have only one decent starter and a terrible bullpen. The result is the worst record in baseball at 33-77. Lefty Tyler Alexander gets the call for Detroit. He has a 4.50 ERA. The White Sox are at their best versus southpaws compiling a 21-17 mark against them. Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games when facing a lefty starter.
|08-06-19||Braves v. Twins -150||12-7||Loss||-150||17 h 43 m||Show|
On paper this may look like a close matchup. In reality it's not. The Twins are much the superior team and have a huge starting pitching edge. These factors are enough to justify laying this price. Atlanta is just 8-11 in its last 19 games. I don't see the Braves defeating Jose Berrios in Minnesota. Berrios has cemented his status as an elite pitcher. He's in tremendous form, too, with a 1.82 ERA in four starts following the All-Star break. Berrios has the third-lowest ERA in the American League at 2.80 and sixth-best WHIP in the AL at 1.10. The Twins have won 25 of Berrios' last 34 home starts, a winning percentage of 74 percent. While Berrios has lived up to his vast potential, Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has gone far downhill after making the All-Star team last year. Bothered by a sore elbow, Foltynewicz has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.37 ERA. Atlanta is 4-9 in his last 13 starts. Foltynewicz has been so bad he was sent to the minors. Now he's back up. I remain highly skeptical. Foltynewicz has been prone to the long ball surrendering 16 bombs in 59 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and are on pace to easily surpass their franchise best for homers in a season. The Braves picked up several prominent relief pitchers at the trade deadling, including Shane Greene. But so far they have looked terrible.
|08-06-19||A's +129 v. Cubs||Top||11-4||Win||129||17 h 41 m||Show|
We have a pair of lefty starters going here - Brett Anderson versus Jon Lester. Anderson has been solid on the road while Lester usually is tough at Wrigley Field. Oakland, though, is 19-8 this season versus southpaw starters, including winning five of its past six away games against them. Anderson's road numbers are a very respectable 5-2 record with a 3.49 ERA. He has limited 11 of his last 13 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The A's have won Anderson's last six away outings. The Cubs hold a losing mark going against lefthanders. They also have a cluster injury situation in their bullpen and are without a closer. Chicago is minus injured catcher Wilson Contreras, too.
|08-05-19||Phillies -102 v. Diamondbacks||Top||7-3||Win||100||19 h 10 m||Show|
I see the Phillies bouncing back against the Diamondbacks after losing at home to the White Sox on Sunday. Philadelphia is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Phillies have a pitching edge here both at starter in the bullpen where Arizona is vulnerable in middle relief and doesn't have a closer. Archie Bradley got the save for Arizona on Sunday but he had to log two innings and 28 pitches to do it. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been bad for more than a month. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in his last six starts. Kelly has been racked for 14 earned runs in his last two starts spanning just 8 1/3 innings. He's been tagged for five homers during this short time frame. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is pitching well giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. The righty has struck out 15 during this span. The Diamondbacks have a losing record against righthanded starters.
|08-05-19||White Sox -118 v. Tigers||7-4||Win||100||7 h 49 m||Show|
It doesn't take much for me to want to fade the Tigers. A good price and a return to form of Lucas Giolito are enough to get me involved here with the White Sox. Chicago just took two of three from the Phillies in Philadelphia. The White Sox have their bats going again. Giolito displayed his All-Star form giving up just one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start against the Mets. Previous to that performance, Giolito was 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in four starts. The start against the Mets was huge for Giolito because he said he was back in rhythm and had made key adjustments. The Tigers have the worst offense in the majors. They are 14-55 in their last 69 games and have lost 29 of their past 33 games at Comerica Park. Spencer Turnbull will be starting for Detroit and he'll be on a pitch count since he's coming off IL. The Tigers' lone reliable reliever, Shane Greene, was traded to the Braves.
|08-04-19||Tigers +1.5 v. Rangers||4-9||Loss||-117||7 h 40 m||Show|
Detroit is the worst team in baseball. However, if you add 1 1/2 runs the Tigers are 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers have lost by identical 5-4 scores during the first two games of this series.Before slipping past the Tigers during the past two games, the Rangers were 8-18 in their last 26 games. They have no business laying this high of a price especially with rookie Pedro Payano drawing the start. Payano is making his second big league start after being in the bullpen. He had a 4.40 ERA in the minors before coming up to the Rangers. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann finally picked up his first victory of the year in his last start holding the Angels to two runs in 5 1/3 innings.
|08-04-19||Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8.5||Top||13-2||Loss||-111||5 h 12 m||Show|
Both teams have below average offenses and are running into pitchers in good form especially the Pirates.Pittsburgh draws Noah Syndergaard, who has looked like his old self after a slow start. Syndergaard has a 1.91 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break with 36 strikouts in 28 1/3 innings during this span. He has a 1.77 ERA in three starts against the Pirates. Pirates starter Joe Musgrove looked good in his last outing holding the Reds to two runs on five hits in six innings. Musgrove has allowed one run in 9 1/3 lifetime innings against the Mets.
|08-04-19||White Sox +146 v. Phillies||10-5||Win||146||5 h 43 m||Show|
This has been a super competitive series with each of the first two games decided by one run. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching his best ball posting a 2.05 ERA ERA since the All-Star break. Opponents are hitting just .194 against him during this span. The Phillies are hoping they caught lightning in a bottle with lefty Drew Smyly. He's given up one run in 13 innings during his two starts with Philadelphia since coming from the Rangers. I don't believe Smyly suddenly has turned good. He was 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA with the Rangers. The White Sox are at their best against lefty pitchers compiling a 19-17 mark versus southpaw starters.
|08-03-19||Cardinals v. A's -130||Top||3-8||Win||100||14 h 26 m||Show|
Mike Fiers may be the most underrated pitcher in the American League especially when he pitches at home where he is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA. Fiers hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a game during his last 17 starts. Only Gerrit Cole has had a lower ERA in the American League since April 26 than Fiers. The Cardinals are playing well. However, the Oakland Coliseum is a tough place for visitors especially those who don't play there very often. Better teams than the Cardinals have gotten tripped up playing in the spacious and weird configurations of Oakland Coliseum. It's not a fluke the A's have won 11 of their last 15 home interleague games. St. Louis also is without three of its key players as Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter are all injured. The Cardinals need a strong starting pitcher here and I don't see Dakota Hudson fitting that profile. He is bottom-of-the-rotation quality with a 4.63 ERA in his last seven starts.
|08-03-19||Blue Jays v. Orioles +116||4-6||Win||116||12 h 21 m||Show|
The Blue Jays gutted their team at the trade deadline. So I'm not making much of their five-game win streak. It has come against the Royals and Orioles.I like the home 'dog Orioles here because of the starting matchup. It's converted reliever Thomas Pannone against Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a strong history versus the Bule Jays with a 3.23 lifetime ERA in 12 appearances. He's 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA against Toronto this season. Pannone has a 5.98 ERA. This is fifth start of the year. He has been at his worst on the road where he is 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA.
|08-03-19||Marlins v. Rays OVER 8.5||6-8||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
Tampa Bay may come close to covering this total by itself. The Rays are averaging 8.4 runs in their last five games. The Rays draw Elieser Hernandez, one of the Marlins' young pitchers learning on the job. Hernandez has an ERA of close to 5.00 and probably isn't going to go deep into the game. The Marlins do not have an established closer after dealing Sergio Romo. The Marlins should be able to put up their share of runs against Diego Castillo and what is going to be a parade of Rays relievers to follow as this is a bullpen game for Tampa Bay. Castillo has a 5.40 ERA versus the Marlins in four career appearances. Miami is expected to get Garrett Cooper back. He hasn't been starting because of a hamstring injury. Cooper leads the Marlins in batting at .292.
|08-02-19||Giants v. Rockies -130||4-5||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Giants finished with the best record in July. San Francisco went 19-6 last month. Regression is coming, though, because the Giants aren't nearly that tough. The Giants are in trouble in this matchup having to go with Shaun Anderson, their one starter who wasn't good in July. The league has caught up to the rookie Anderson, who went 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in five starts last month. Anderson couldn't reach the sixth inning in any of those starts. The Giants' setup relief is down after a series of trades. Anderson hasn't been good either away from spacious Oracle Park with a 5.65 ERA in eight road starts. Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him on the road. Now Anderson is pitching at Coors Field, the premier hitter's park in the majors. Anderson pitched at Colorado last month and gave up five runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Rockies are going to be extra motivated for this series after being swept four games at home by the Giants last month. Even with that sweep, San Francisco still has lost 19 of the past 26 times at Coors. Rockies starter Peter Lambert has shown positive signs of breaking out of his slump. He has a respectable 3.86 ERA in his last three starts with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.
|08-02-19||Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal||Top||30-27||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
|08-01-19||Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5||Top||19-24||Win||100||33 h 40 m||Show|
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.