|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-25-19||Suns +14.5 v. Jazz||92-125||Loss||-103||13 h 1 m||Show|
This isn't a kill spot for the Jazz. It's actually a flat spot for Utah. The Jazz haven't played at home in nine days. They've been on the road during their past four games and are coming off a 31-point road win against the Bulls from Saturday night. It's going to be easy for the Jazz to overlook the Suns, who have multiple injuries and haven't been competitive versus Utah this season. The Jazz just rolled past the Suns, 114-97, at Phoenix on March 13. The Jazz, however, are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games. The Suns have covered their past six road games and are 9-4 ATS during their last 13 overall games.
|03-25-19||Longwood +15 v. DePaul||Top||89-97||Win||100||16 h 55 m||Show|
If you're going to lay this big of a number in a tournament, you better play at least decent defense. DePaul doesn't. The Blue Demons give up 75.5 points a game, which ranks 276th. Only once in their last 20 games have the Blue Demons won by a margin this big. DePaul is 11-26-3 (29.7 percent) following a victory. Reaching the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational may not be a big deal for some teams, but it is for Longwood, a team from the Big South Conference. The Lancers opened the tournament rolling past Southern Mississippi, as 9 1/2-point home 'dogs. That was the 10th time in their last 11 tries the Lancers had covered in a non-conference matchup. DePaul is the home team here. Yet it should be noted that the Blue Demons won't be on their regular home court. It's being used to host a women's basketball tournament. So this game is being played at a much smaller gym that is the home of the DePaul women's volleyball team.
|03-24-19||Ohio State v. Houston UNDER 132.5||59-74||Loss||-109||30 h 31 m||Show|
Both teams have outstanding defenses and play at slow tempos. They aren't going to change their styles. Given the importance of this matchup, Under is the right way to look.Houston gives up just 61.1 points a game, which ranks seventh-best in the country, and holds foes to a nation-best 36.5 percent shooting from the floor. The Cougars also have the No. 1 3-point defense. Ohio State is no match for that as the Buckeyes average fewer than 70 points per game. The Buckeyes, though, rank 42nd defensively holding foes to 66 points a game.
|03-24-19||Oklahoma v. Virginia -11||51-63||Win||100||21 h 37 m||Show|
Rarely has Oklahoma encountered a defense as tough as Virginia's. When the Sooners did they did not fare well going 0-5 versus Wisconsin and two games each against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Not once in those five games did the Sooners break the 61-point barrier. Virginia is the No. 1 defensive team in the country - by a wide margin. The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 2 in 3-point defense and No. 5 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma is extremely lucky to even make the Tournament. The Sooners entered tournament play 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS. Oklahoma can get hot, though. The Sooners did just that in blowing out overachieving Mississippi, 95-72, on Friday. Now, though, the Sooners are going way up in class. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cavaliers aren't taking anything for granted after they became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the tournament falling to Maryland-Baltimore Country last season.The Cavaliers were tight during the first half of their Thursday opening round tournament game against Gardner-Webb. But then they found their groove in the second half to pull away for a 71-56 victory.
|03-24-19||Spurs v. Celtics UNDER 220||115-96||Win||100||17 h 27 m||Show|
San Antonio has been one of the top defensive teams since the All-Star break. The Spurs have held nine of their past 12 opponents to 105 or fewer points. The Under is 10-2 in San Antonio's last 12 games.
The Spurs, though, are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped two in a row. Boston is in worse shape. The Celtics have dropped three in a row with the third one coming in unbelievable fashion on Saturday night. The Celtics blew an 18-point fourth quarter lead in a 124-117 road loss to Charlotte. The Celtics scored five points during the final 8:21. Brad Stevens called out his team's lack of toughness following that Boston loss. The Celtics return home now for this matchup. You have to believe the Celtics are going to play intense defense. Boston could get back injured center Aron Baynes. That would be a plus for the Under as Baynes offers toughness underneath but little offense. There's a possibility, too, Boston could be minus Jayson Tatum, its second-leading scorer. Tatum suffered a bruised lower back against the Hornets.
|03-23-19||Suns v. Kings UNDER 231.5||Top||103-112||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
We know neither the Suns nor the Kings are strong defensively. Of course the oddsmaker is well aware of that, too, hence the hight total here. But lately both of these teams have been going Under the total a lot. The Under has cashed in five of Phoenix's past six games. The Kings have gone Under in 12 of their last 17 home games. There are reasons for this. The Suns have scored 102 or fewer points in four of their last five games. This can be accounted for their many injuries. The Suns are minus T.J. Warren, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tyler Johnson. Josh Jackson isn't likely to play either after suffering an ankle injury in the Suns' last game. Without those players, the Suns lose their No. 2., No. 3, No. 5 and No. 6 scorers. The situation is so dire for the Suns they signed Jimmer Fredette. I'd love to have Fredette on my rec league team. But as for the NBA, well no. Fredette is not NBA quality. Sacramento has played two lottery teams during its last three games - the Mavericks and Bulls. They held Dallas to 100 points and Chicago to 102 points.
|03-23-19||Murray State +5 v. Florida State||Top||62-90||Loss||-115||16 h 12 m||Show|
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
|03-22-19||UCF v. VCU OVER 126.5||73-58||Win||100||18 h 25 m||Show|
VCU ranks 10th defensively in the country. Central Florida gives up the 27th fewest points. So naturally we have a low opening total. But don't be surprised if far more points are scored than anticipated. Central Florida produced 69 and 68 points, respectively, against Houston this season. The Cougars were statistically even better than VCU ranking eighth in the nation in fewest points allowed per game. VCU has a string of scoring 69 or more points in 10 consecutive games. The point spread is around pick, too, so overtime remains a real possibility.
|03-22-19||Clippers -6.5 v. Cavs||110-108||Loss||-108||8 h 24 m||Show|
Break up the Cavaliers? I don't think so. Cleveland has won two in row beating the Bucks and Pistons. Milwaukee was minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Detroit didn't have Blake Griffin when Cleveland posted those victories.The Clippers are at full strength and going for playoff seeding. LA should be fully focused having been idle the past two days and realizing the Cavaliers have won two straight. Collin Sexton is having a strong rookie season, but Cleveland doesn't offer much else. Kevin Love, the Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, may not play due to a concussion. The Clippers average 10 points more per game than the Cavaliers. Cleveland has had problems matching up when taking on opponents from the superior Western Conference going 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS the past eight times.
|03-22-19||Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5||Top||74-91||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
|03-21-19||Florida v. Nevada -2||Top||70-61||Loss||-109||21 h 40 m||Show|
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette -3||83-64||Loss||-117||19 h 42 m||Show|
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine. The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line.
|03-21-19||Bradley v. Michigan State -18||65-76||Loss||-110||17 h 51 m||Show|
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score. The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games. Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down. The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006.
|03-20-19||Sam Houston State +13.5 v. TCU||69-82||Win||100||18 h 53 m||Show|
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances. It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
|03-20-19||Wizards -2 v. Bulls||Top||120-126||Loss||-113||18 h 9 m||Show|
The youthful Bulls may not be fully focused for this home matchup as they just concluded three games on the West Coast with a 116-101 win against the Suns on Monday. Motivation shouldn't be a problem for the Wizards. They are in must-win mode trailing the Heat by 4 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the East. The Wizards are a respectable 8-10 since trading Otto Porter to the Bulls for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. Porter has done well with the Bulls, but sat out Chicago's victory against Phoenix with a sore shoulder. Zach LaVine, the Bulls' best player, has been gutting things out with a thigh and knee injury. There are no guarantees Porter and LaVine play against the Wizards. Washington handled the Bulls, 134-125, at Chicago last month. The Wizards have covered seven of the past eight times when meeting a sub .500 opponent.
|03-20-19||Rockets v. Grizzlies +4||125-126||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
Great spot for the Grizzlies here. Memphis is playing well at home covering nine of its last 11 at FedEx Forum and draw the Rockets carrying a heavy rating and in a look-ahead spot. This marks the Rockets' fourth game in six days and second in two days. Houston took care of Atlanta, 121-105, as 7 1/2-point road favorites on Tuesday. Following this game, the Rockets host the Spurs on Friday. Houston leads San Antonio by three games in the Southwest Division. A loss to the Spurs in that matchup obviously would tighten up the division. Houston already is holding out Eric Gordon against the Grizzlies for rest purposes. Perhaps the Rockets might even sit James Harden and Chris Paul, too. Unlike the Rockets, the Grizzlies are fully rested. They have been idle the past three days. Memphis hasn't lost by more than six points at home during the past 11 times.
|03-19-19||Dayton v. Colorado -4.5||Top||73-78||Win||100||28 h 48 m||Show|
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
|03-19-19||76ers v. Hornets +1||118-114||Loss||-105||15 h 21 m||Show|
This may be Charlotte's game of the year. The Hornets are two games out of the final playoff spot in the East and have triple revenge against the 76ers, losing three times to them this season by an average of only two points per game. The Hornets play much better at home with a 21-14 mark compared to 10-24 on the road. The 76ers have covered just 42 percent of their road games this season going 14-19. Philly is in a sandwich spot, too. The 76ers just upset the Bucks on the road in a nationally televised game this past Sunday and host the Celtics on Wednesday. So it's easy for the youthful 76ers to look past the Hornets. The 76ers already have said they will sit out Joel Embiid in order to rest him for the Celtics. Philly has failed to cover five of the past six times when meeting a below .500 opponent.
|03-18-19||Pistons v. Cavs +7||119-126||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
Great win by the Pistons on Sunday against the Raptors. However, Detroit doesn't have much time to savor its victory. The Pistons begin a five-game road trip here. So not only is a letdown possible, but Detroit's concentration and focus may off, too. The Cavaliers should not lack for motivation as this is a triple-revenge spot for them. Just 16 days ago, the Pistons easily handled the Cavaliers, 129-93. That victory was achieved on the Cavaliers' home floor. Cleveland didn't have Kevin Love in that embarrassing loss. The key question is are the Cavaliers good enough to cover this mid-size spread? Detroit is clearly a tier higher than Cleveland. But the Pistons are far from elite. They have stumbled, too, when playing in Clevland covering just once in their last six trips. The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 2-0 during their last two home games beating the Magic by 14 points and Raptors by 25 points.
|03-17-19||Nets +6.5 v. Clippers||116-119||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode being 0-2 on their seven-game road trip with losses to the Thunder and Jazz. That used to not mean anything. It does now because the Nets aren't a bottom feeder anymore. They are a legitimate playoff team entering today just one-half game behind the Pistons for the sixth seed in the East.The Clippers are a level below the Thunder and Jazz. They don't have the stars Oklahoma City and Utah has. Brooklyn is not outclassed here. I would give the Nets an advantage in the backcourt with their trio of D'Angelo Rusell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert. The Nets should have beaten the Clippers in the first meeting this season. They blew a 15-point lead in a 127-119 home loss. I'm not fond of the Nets as chalk, but I lke them as 'dogs because they are well-coached and can usually be counted on to play hard. They have covered six of their last eight road contests versus opponents with a winning home record.
|03-17-19||Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 129.5||Top||60-65||Loss||-114||12 h 29 m||Show|
This is the third meeting between these two teams. The total opened the lowest of the three games. I understand that thinking since Michigan and Michigan State know each other backward and forward now. But I also believe there are factors and facts that will make this the highest scoring matchup of the three games. Michigan is playing well. The Wolverines scored 74 and 76 points, respectively, in beating Iowa and Minnesota so far in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. They are in a nice scoring groove. Michigan State is averaging 76 points in its two games versus the Wolverines. The Spartans are averaging 77.5 points in their last four games and that includes a 67-point game against Wisconsin, which has the ninth-ranked defense in the country. The Wolverines haven't been able to stop Michigan State's star guard, Cassius Winston, who has hurt Michigan with his shooting and working the pick-and-roll with Xavier Tillman. It's a plus for Michigan State if Nick Ward can produce points in the low post after returning from a broken hand. Michigan's scoring is going to be helped because Charles Matthews, its third-leading scorer, is back. He hurt his ankle in the first meeting between the teams and sat out the second get together.
|03-16-19||Oregon -115 v. Washington||68-48||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
Washington plays outstanding defense. But Oregon has been playing even better defense holding foes to 55.1 points. The Ducks are blazing winning and covering their last seven games. Dana Altman has done a tremendous job coaching Oregon, which lost star center Bol Bol for the season. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They failed to beat the Ducks when they hosted them last Saturday, losing 55-47. That was the fourth time in the past five meetings Oregon covered versus Washington.
|03-16-19||Suns v. Pelicans -2.5||138-136||Loss||-107||6 h 29 m||Show|
It's smaller, but there is still a gap between these two teams. New Orleans is better and at home. So this spread is short. Anthony Davis is expected to play He's backed by Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton, a pair of underrated players who are playing at high levels. On the flip side, Suns star rookie center Deandre Ayton could be hitting the wall. He scored a career-low two points on 1-for-9 shooting against the Jazz two games ago. The Suns are playing without rest having lost to the Rockets, 108-102, on the road. New Orleans is 2-0 versus Phoenix this season winning 119-99 at home on Nov. 10 and 130-116 on the road March 1. The Suns have failed to cover in their last six games against the Pelicans.
|03-16-19||Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 147||Top||58-67||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
If you're going to get involved playing an Under in the Sun Belt Conference this is the game to do it. Georgia Southern and Texas Arlington rank among the three best defensive teams in the league. The Under has cashed the past six times in the series. The two games this season averaged 140 points. Georgia Southern has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Mavericks have gone Under 23 times in their last 133 games. Note, too, this game is played at neutral site Lakefront Arena in New Orleans, which has a reputation of being a tough place to shoot because of the backdrop.
|03-16-19||Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5||55-67||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
Wisconsin isn't as good as Michigan State especially with the Spartans getting back forward Nick Ward, their second-leading scorer. The Badgers rely on forward Ethan Happ, who isn't a great shooter. Happ didn't play well in the Badgers' 66-62 victory against Nebraska on Friday scoring just four points and committing seven turnovers. The Spartans will key on Happ. The Spartans have the best guard on the court in Cassius Winston. The Badgers will try to key on Winston. The Spartans, though, have a secret weapon, freshman point guard Foster Loyer, to keep the pressure off Winston. Loyer played well in the Spartans' opening Big Ten Tournament victory over Ohio State on Friday. The Badgers struggled against the Cornhuskers, a team the Spartans rolled past, 91-76, at home three games ago. Tom Izzo has Michigan State peaking at the right time again. The Spartans closed the regular season beating Michigan, 75-63, as four-point home favorites a week ago. Wisconsin went up against Michigan on Feb. 9 and lost as seven-point road 'dogs, 61-52. Michigan State handled Wisconsin in the team's lone meeting this season, winning 67-59 on the road. The Spartans have covered 15 of their last 21 Big Ten games, while the Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten matchups.
|03-15-19||Colorado v. Washington -120||Top||61-66||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
The Pac-12 was way down again this season. If there is one decent team in the conference, though, it's Washington. I don't see Colorado getting past the Huskies. The Buffaloes can't solve Washington's tough zone defense. The Huskies are the best team in the Pac-12 because of their league-leading defense giving up 62.3 points a game and ranking No. 2 in the conference in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Buffaloes the past two seasons. Washington has won these games by an average of 12 points holding the Buffaloes to an average of 61.5 points a game during this span. The teams met just three weeks ago and the Huskies won, 64-55, at home. The Huskies forced 19 turnovers and held Colorado to a season-low in points.
|03-15-19||Knicks +13.5 v. Spurs||83-109||Loss||-109||12 h 34 m||Show|
Believe it or not, the Knicks buried the Spurs, 130-118, when the teams met at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 24. So the Knicks are capable. I fully realize, though, the Spurs are playing much better now and the Knicks rank at the lowest level. But I'm going to take advantage of what I perceived as an inflated line. New York has lost by more than 11 points once in its last 11 games and only once in their last 24 games have the Spurs won by more than 12 points and that was by 14 points. The Spurs are too savvy to go all out here knowing they host the Trail Blazers on Saturday and Warriors on Monday. That's two big look-ahead challenges. It wouldn't be shocking if Gregg Popovich rested a key starter here, or reduced the minutes of his starters.
|03-15-19||Lakers +11.5 v. Pistons||97-111||Loss||-110||8 h 38 m||Show|
The Pistons can't be laying double-digits. Not after back-to-back scoring games of 74 and 75 points. Reggie Jackson is questionable, too, with an ankle injury. The Lakers are going to show some pride with LeBron James playing. The Lakers also have several former Pistons and players from the Detroit area, who will be motivated for this game. LA handled the Pistons when the teams met earlier, 113-100, on Jan. 9. Kyle Kuzma scored 41 points in that game and did a good job defensively on Blake Griffin.
|03-15-19||Iowa State +1 v. Kansas State||63-59||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
The buy sign for me on Iowa State is on after the Cyclones buried Baylor, 83-66, in their Big 12 Conference Tournament game Thursday. I'm going to ride the Cyclones here. These two teams met a month ago at Kansas State. Iowa State won, 78-64. Even though this matchup is in Kansas City, Mo., the Cyclones have a home-court advantage as far as fan support.
|03-14-19||Oregon -4 v. Utah||66-54||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
I like the way Oregon is playing. The Ducks have five straight wins and covers, including zipping past Washington State, 84-51, in their opening Pac-12 Conference Tournament game. The Ducks handled Utah on the road winning, 78-72, during the regular season. Now they draw the Utes on a neutral court. Oregon won that first meeting despite shooting just 5-for-21 from 3-point range and getting fewer free throw attempts than Utah. Oregon has the 19th-stingiest defense in the nation giving up 63.3 points a game. The Ducks have held their last four foes to an average of 51.5 points a game. Utah permits 11 more points per game than Oregon. The Utes have failed to cover in four of their last five neutral site games.
|03-14-19||Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 222||Top||106-108||Win||100||17 h 7 m||Show|
Indiana is the No. 1 ranked defensive team in the NBA permitting just 103.9 points a game. The Pacers have held six of their past 10 home foes to fewer than 99 points. One of those 10 opponents was the Bucks, who rank No. 2 in the league in scoring. The Pacers held Milwaukee to 106 points, 11 points under its average. Oklahoma City has held its last two opponents, the Nets and Jazz, to a combined average of 93 points. The Thunder has gone Under in seven of its last nine games. Don't expect Russell Westbrook and the Thunder to play at breakneck speed either as this is Oklahoma City's third game in four days and second in two nights. There is more intensity than normal for a nonconference matchup because of Paul George, who starred for the Pacers for seven seasons before getting traded to the Thunder in 2017. George was jeered loudly when he played at Indiana against the Pacers last season. Indiana won that matchup, 100-95. George hasn't been shooting well either since returning from a right shoulder injury. George has made just 34.4 percent of his field goal attempts in his last five games.
|03-14-19||Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 155||89-81||Loss||-105||5 h 41 m||Show|
These two teams have been about offense rather than defense. But both have been in better defensive form and their intensity is way up with this being the MAC Tournament.The Under has cashed in Kent State's last three games. The Golden Flashes have been playing better defense holding their last two foes to 65 and 66 points. Central Michigan held Western Michigan to 67 points in its opening MAC Tournament victory.
|03-13-19||Jazz -7.5 v. Suns||Top||114-97||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
It happened on Sunday, but the Suns still could be celebrating their stunning 115-111 upset win of the Warriors. Phoenix was 17-point road 'dogs. It was the first time the Suns had defeated the Warriors in 19 games having lost 18 in a row to them. The Jazz have won the past four meetings against the Suns by an average of 24.4 points. They whipped Phoenix, 116-88, as 15-point home favories in the previous meeting on Feb. 6. But no way now do the Jazz take the Suns lightly. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode have losting three of four, including two in a row. Utah's defense has been there. But the Jazz's shooting has been off. They hit just 36.4 percent against the Thunder at home on Monday in losing, 98-89. That was the fewest points the Thunder had scored in 27 games. Unfortunately for the Jazz too many of their normally reliable scorers were cold in that game. Donovan Mitchell, who is approaching superstar status, Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles were a combined 15-for46 from the floor in that loss to Oklahoma City. Expect the Jazz to shoot much better against a Phoenix defense that ranks 28th. The Suns have yielded 116 or more points in 18 of its last 22 games. The Jazz are 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a loss and have played better on the road lately covering four of their last five away matchups.
|03-13-19||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7||59-73||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
I'm not buying into Pittsburgh getting hot with victories against Notre Dame and Boston College on Tuesday in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. I don't trust the Panthers' freshmen. Pitt is a bad team - 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games verus above .500 foes and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games - and have had problems trying to solve Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone defense. The Orange beat the Panthers, 74-63, at home on Jan. 19 and 65-56 on the road on Feb. 2. The Panthers shot just 33.8 percent and 31.6 percent from the floor in those two games. Syrcause is stepping down in class after concluding its regular season with losses to Virginia and Clemson on the road. The Orange are 7-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
|03-13-19||Pistons v. Heat -120||74-108||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
Both teams are coming off bad losses. The Heat were routed at home, 125-104, by the Raptors this past Sunday. The Raptors, at least, are one of the elite teams in the East. The Pistons had their bubble burst losing, 103-75, on the road to the Nets Monday. The Pistons shot a season-worst 27.8 percent from the floor. I see the Heat bouncing back at home in this matchup. Not so for the Pistons. Detroit only has two reliable scorers, Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. The Pistons are facing the No. 3 ranked defense and carry a fatigue factor being in action for the third time in four days. The Heat can't afford home losses to mediocre Eastern Conference foes in their quest to make the postseason. Miami had won four in a row until falling to the Raptors. The Heat haven't played since that Sunday loss. I expect them to have a lot of energy and for Erik Spoelstra to have a solid defensive game plan.
|03-12-19||Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers||Top||125-104||Win||100||20 h 43 m||Show|
There are reasons why Portland opened a road favorite against the Clippers. The Trail Blazers are the superior team holding a huge starting backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and also have the best big man in Jusuf Nurkic. It's a strong spot, too, for Portland. The Trail Blazers last played on Saturday while the Clippers are in action for the third time in five days and are playing without rest. LA is in danger of letting down after consecutive impressive home victories versus the Thunder and Celtics. The Trail Blazers have been sharp on the road covering in six of their last seven away contests. Portland also is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings versus the Clippers, while covering in their last four visits against the Clippers.
|03-11-19||San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's||Top||62-69||Loss||-109||9 h 18 m||Show|
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record.
St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
|03-11-19||Thunder v. Jazz -3||98-89||Loss||-110||20 h 22 m||Show|
Want to know the coldest NBA team from a point spread perspective? Hint, it's not the Knicks. Congrats if you came up with Oklahoma City. The Thunder have covered just once in their last 10 games - and that one was in overtime. Now the Thunder enter their sixth straight different venue to take on the revenge-minded Jazz, who lost a wild 148-147 two-overtime game to Oklahoma City on Feb. 22 when Paul George hit a game-winner with less than a second left. The Jazz trail the Thunder by 2 1/2 games for the No. 4 playoff spot in the West. Utah has the superior defense and has the best inside player of the two teams with Rudy Gobert. Russell Westbrook and George are superstars, but Donovan Mitchell is rapidly reaching that elevated level. He is outscoring Westbrook on the season. The Jazz got caught peeking ahead to this matchup falling, 114-104, to Memphis as a 4 1/2-point road favorite on Friday. Look for Utah to be ready for this key home matchup. The Jazz have covered 76 percent of the past 22 times the following game after not covering in their previous game.
|03-10-19||Raptors -113 v. Heat||125-104||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
Miami finally has gotten healthy, is home and riding a four-game win streak. So because of that we have around a pick'em game. That puts me into play backing the Raptors, a much superior team. Toronto hasn't been good as chalk, but it's certainly not too much to ask the Raptors just to win. Miami's four game win streak is against the the Nets, Hawks, Hornets and Cavaliers. Only the Nets have a winning record of those four teams at 35-33. The Raptors got their confidence back up by rolling past the Pelicans, 127-104, on Friday after a road overtime loss to the hot Pistons and a home loss to the elite Rockets. A significant development in that win against the Pelicans was newcomer Jeremy Lin producing 14 points for the Raptors. Toronto has fortified its rotation picking up Marc Gasol and Linn in recent moves. The Heat have played better on the road than at home where they are 15-18 SU, 14-19 ATS at American Airlines Arena. The Heat have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 home games.
|03-10-19||Iowa v. Nebraska +1||Top||91-93||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
|03-09-19||Suns v. Blazers -12.5||120-127||Loss||-102||20 h 43 m||Show|
Break up the Suns. Phoenix has won three in a row. That doesn't change the fact the Suns own the worst record in the Western Conference at 15-51 and would like to land the No. 1 overall draft pick for the second year in a row. Closer inspection shows the Suns' three-game win streak occurred at home with two of the victims being the free-falling Lakers and Knicks, owners of the worst record in the NBA at 13-52. The Suns did stun the Bucks, which has caught the Trail Blazers' attention and should prevent them from taking the Suns lightly. The Suns have lost 13 of their last 14 road games, going 5-9 ATS in these contests. Portland has defeated Phoenix seven times in a row with the last coming, 120-106, as 8 1/2-point road favorites on Jan. 24. So I consider this line fair and I love the spot for Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 129-121 home overtime loss to the Thunder on Thursday. That was Portland's first home game since Feb. 13. The Trail Blazers had played seven consecutive road games. Now they are settled back at home where they have covered 69 percent of their past 55 games. The Trail Blazers don't play again until Tuesday when they begin a three-game road trip. So expect the Trail Blazers to be motivated for a kill spot win here with zero chance of overlooking the Suns based on the situation and Phoenix riding a three-game win streak.
|03-09-19||Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado UNDER 144||Top||89-78||Loss||-110||14 h 54 m||Show|
There is a good reason why Northern Colorado has gone Under in 17 of its last 22 games. The Bears have the best defense in the Big Sky Conference. They also play at a very slow tempo. The Bears are a heavy favorite in this matchup. So they certainly aren't going to be rushing shots especially if they built up a solid lead as expected.Northern Arizona also plays at at slower than normal pace. The Lumberjacks are very deliberate when going against an above .500 foe as reflected in the Under winning six of the last seven times they have faced a winning team. The teams met earlier this season in late January. Final score: Northern Colorado 63, Northern Arizona 48. That's a combined 111 points.
|03-09-19||Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -1||73-81||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
Texas Arlington is coming on in its bid to finish first in the Sun Belt Conference winning three in a row. Texas State is feeling the pressure of trying to place first. The Bobcats are coming off a bad 77-63 road loss to South Alabama losing as a three-point favorite. The Bobcats' lone cover during their last four games is against free-falling Troy. Texas Arlington has the superior defense. The Mavericks rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They are are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory and have covered 12 of their past 15 league games. I'm going to ride them again.
|03-09-19||Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State||80-73||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
I want hot Texas Tech going for me here especially in a revenge spot. The Red Raiders have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight while going 7-1 ATS. Don't expect any kind of letup either as the Red Raiders are tied for the Big 12 lead with Kansas State and want payback for a 68-64 home loss to the Cyclones. Iowa State is faltering losing six of its last eight games. The Cyclones have failed to cover six of the past eight times versus above .500 opponents. Texas Tech is holding foes to 58.2 points a game, which is the second-best mark in the nation. Iowa State just gave up 90 points to West Virginia and 86 to Texas in the game before that. Texas Tech defeated Texas, 70-51, in its last game.
|03-08-19||Thunder v. Clippers -120||Top||110-118||Win||100||20 h 53 m||Show|
This is the monster of all situational edges. The Clippers last played on Monday. They are going for a playoff spot and are rested and ready.
The Thunder are playing for the fifth time in seven days and just had to play a late night overtime road game against the Trail Blazers on Thursday in which they won. Until beating Portland, the Thunder had failed to cover in their last eight games.
|03-08-19||Nuggets v. Warriors -6||105-122||Win||100||13 h 58 m||Show|
When the Warriors are at full strength and really want a game, no opponent can beat them. That's the way I see this matchup. Klay Thompson is back for Golden State after missing the past two games with a sore knee. Golden State is home, has been idle since Tuesday and its next game is against the Suns at home on Sunday, which should be an easy victory. So the Warriors should be fully focused. The Warriors lead the Nuggets by only one game for the No. 1 seed in the West. Golden State also has had two full days to stew about its last game, an embarrassing 33-point home loss to the Celtics. Denver is for real this season. However, the Nuggets do not play that well on the road. They are 16-15 SU, 13-18 ATS on the season in away games. They are 4-7 ATS during their last 11 away matchups with straight-up losses to the Suns and Nets during this span.
|03-08-19||St. Joe's +12 v. VCU||63-75||Push||0||12 h 54 m||Show|
This is a letdown spot for Virginia Commnwealth, which just clinched the Atlantic-10 regular season title by burying George Mason, 71-36, on Tuesday. St. Joe's has been competitive. The Hawks are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS in their last seven games. They have the conference's leading scorer, Charie Brown Jr. The Hawks have covered eight of the last nine times versus the Rams and are 6-0 ATS during their past six visits to VCU.
|03-07-19||Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 233||129-121||Loss||-106||13 h 21 m||Show|
Expect the Thunder to play better defense after they surrendered 131 points to the Timberwolves in their last game two days ago. Paul George is back for Oklahoma City. That is a double-edge sword for the total as George is strong on both ends of the court. He still could be rusty, though, after shooting just 8-of-25 versus Minnesota in his first game back from a three-game absence caused by a shoulder injury. The Thunder have gone Under the past five times when giving up triple digits in their past game. Portland is home for the first time since finishing a seven-game road trip with an embarrassing 120-111 loss to the Grizzlies on Tuesday. The Trail Blazers' intensity should be up, too, especially with triple revenge motivation. The Under has cashed in four the past five meetings between the two teams.
|03-07-19||Indiana +2 v. Illinois||92-74||Win||100||6 h 55 m||Show|
Don't be fooled by Indiana's record. The Hooisers have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country as rated by KenPom.com. They have beaten a number of powerhouses, including Wisconsin and Michigan State during their past two games. It's a plus for the Hooisers that big man De'Ron Davis is expected to play after a bout with the flu. Illinois is going the other direction after peaking in mid-season. The Illini is 1-3 in their last four games. They have scored 63 or fewer points in three of their last five games. The Hooisers have covered six of the last seven in the series and are 4-0-1 ATS the past five times playing at Illinois.
|03-07-19||Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 131.5||77-55||Loss||-115||10 h 19 m||Show|
Note this is a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament matchup and is being held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge arena notorious for its poor shooting backdrop. Valparaiso has played four consecutive Under games. The Crusaders are averaging just 53.2 points in their last four games. The Under is 20-8 in the Crusaders' past 28 conference matchups. Indiana State is much better on defense. The Sycamores have a premier shot blocker in Emondre Rickman. However, the Sycamores average fewer than 70 points a game.
|03-06-19||Jazz -4 v. Pelicans||114-104||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
Short revenge situations don't happen too often in the NBA. They are even more rare when the better team gets upset at home by blowing a huge lead. But that's what occurred to the Jazz this past Monday. They blew a 17-point lead and fell, 115-112, to New Orleans. Now Utah gets a rematch with New Orleans just two days later. Expect a much different result. The Jazz are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after losing their previous game. They are playing for playoff seeding. The Pelicans are playing for the future. They are returning home fat and happy after four consecutive road games, having won the last three. Donovan Mitchell is reaching superstar status. He had an off-game against the Pelicans missing 16 of 24 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. He has scored 20 or more points in 23 of his last 25 games. Rudy Gobert is the dominant big man with Anthony Davis playing less than half the game these days. Gobert had 19 points and 19 rebounds in the loss to the Pelicans. Davis played just 22 minutes. The Jazz have dominated the Pelicans in New Orleans going 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times, including winning the past five times.
|03-06-19||Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic||Top||72-69||Loss||-108||17 h 22 m||Show|
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
|03-05-19||Utah State v. Colorado State +7||Top||100-96||Win||100||13 h 3 m||Show|
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
|03-05-19||Thunder +2.5 v. Wolves||120-131||Loss||-110||8 h 8 m||Show|
It's a huge plus if Paul George can play for Oklahoma City. He has missed the past three games due to shouder soreness. But I like the Thunder as a 'dog even if George doesn't play. The Thunder still are the better team and have double revenge for a pair of close losses to the Timberwolves. Oklahoma City got out of its funk - a four-game losing streak - by coming from 13 points down to beat the Grizzlies, 99-95, at home. The Thunder have three tough road games following this game - Trail Blazers, Clippers and Jazz. So focus shouldn't be an issue. Minnesota has dropped three in a row. I'm far from sold on Timberwolves interim coach Ryan Saunders.
|03-04-19||Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech||Top||51-70||Loss||-108||19 h 56 m||Show|
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
|03-04-19||Hawks v. Heat -8||113-114||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
The Hawks are headed to the lottery. So there aren't many letdown spots for them. This is one of those rare situations. The Hawks lost to the Bulls in a crazy four overtime game on Friday. Atlanta got its revenge on Sunday defeating the Bulls, 123-118, in Chicago. It was a chippy game with a lot of intensity. Atlanta achieved that victory without its leading scorer and rebounder, John Collins. He is ill and not expected to play today. The Hawks also are down two other big men with center Miles Plumlee out with a knee injury and power forward Omari Spellman sidelined with an ankle injury. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS following a victory. They also are 2-8 ATS when playing without rest. Both of those angles are at work here. The key, though, is trusting the Heat. Miami has been disappointing this season. Right now the Heat are outside of a playoff spot. The Heat have not played well at home. So can they be trusted? I believe they can for this matchup. The Heat are coming off a 117-88 home victory against the Nets from Saturday. That was Miami's most lopsided victory of the season and should provide some confidence. The Heat have added incentive, too, being in triple revenge mode against the Hawks. Yep, the Hawks are 3-0 versus the Heat this season. If Miami fails to make the postseason it could point to its multiple losses to the lowly Hawks, who have the fifth-worst record in the NBA at 22-42. I'm not expecting Goran Dragic to play. There is a possibility Hassan Whiteside returns to Miami's lineup. Both are game-time decisions. I'm fine laying points if neither plays. The Heat didn't need them when they destroyed the Nets by 29 points. Power forward Kelly Olynyk stepped up scoring 25 points versus the Nets and Bam Adebayo is an underrated backup center.
|03-03-19||Magic -6.5 v. Cavs||93-107||Loss||-100||8 h 33 m||Show|
Often it's not who you play, but when you play them. That's the case in this matchup. Orlando upset Golden State on Thursday and then came back to knock off the Pacers on the road Saturday night. Those victories moved the Magic into a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This is really heady stuff for Orlando. The Magic have another big game on Tuesday facing the 76ers on the road. But first comes this away matchup versus the lowly Cavaliers. I don't see this being an easy game for Orlando, which is in a major letdown spot. The Cavaliers has a winning record in its last seven games sparked by the return of Kevin Love. Cleveland rested Love on Saturday and were embarrassed at home, 129-93, by the Pistons. Love is slated to play here and the Cavaliers won't lack motivation after laying an egg at home last night. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS following a non-cover and have covered 10 of the past 15 times when playing without rest. The first meeting between the teams was very close with the Magic coming from five points down in the final 40 seconds to pull out a 102-100 home win back in November. Evan Fournier hit a jumper at the buzzer to win the game.
|03-03-19||Marshall +5 v. North Texas||Top||85-82||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
|03-02-19||Boise State v. UNLV -2||81-85||Win||100||19 h 18 m||Show|
The Rebels beat Boise State, 83-72, on the road on Feb. 6 and certainly are capable of beating the Broncos at home. The Rebels are a basket away from being 4-1 in their last five games. Boise State, on the other hand, has fallen apart going 1-6 in its last seven games with losses in their past four games. The Broncos' lone win during this span is against San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State also could be minus its third-leading scorer as guard Derrick Alston is questionable with a toe injury.
|03-02-19||Bucks v. Jazz -3.5||111-115||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
Surprised by this line considering the Bucks have won seven in a row and 19 of their last 21? Don't be. This is the mother of bad spots for Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off a Friday night victory against the Lakers in which they had to rally late to win in a game that was far closer than the 131-120 final indicates. This marks Milwaukee's fourth road game in six days and this one is in high altiutde. The Bucks have a horrible history, too, playing at Salt Lake City. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times they've visited and haven't won there since John Stockton and Karl Malone roamed the court. Utah is playing well, too. The Jazz are 17-6 in their last 23 games and have won three in a row, including defeating the Nuggets, 111-104, on the road Thursday.
|03-02-19||Warriors -5 v. 76ers||120-117||Loss||-103||7 h 45 m||Show|
Enough is enough. The Warriors aren't going to lose three in a row after getting upset by the Magic and Heat.The 76ers are not in the Warriors' class. They aren't close to their level without Joel Embiid, who remains out. The 76ers also will be without their other rim protector with center Boban Marjanovic out, too. Golden State is in stop-the-pain mode and also has revenge for a home loss suffered to the Warriors. The Warriors will be missing Klay Thompson, but get Andre Iguodala back in the lineup.
|03-02-19||Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State||Top||79-66||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
|03-02-19||Illinois State v. Southern Illinois OVER 133||63-72||Win||100||18 h 37 m||Show|
Illinois State is averaging 66 points in its last two games. Nothing outstanding about that except the Redbirds have played at a faster tempo. They were averaging 58.4 points during their previous five games. Southern Illinois has picked up its pace, too. The Salukis are coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 98-91 road win versus Evansville. Illinois State ranks seven in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference in scoring defense. The Over has cashed four of the last five times Southern Illinois has hosted Illinois State.
|03-01-19||Blazers v. Raptors -5||Top||117-119||Loss||-109||19 h 23 m||Show|
Kudos to Portland on a great road trip - so far. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 on their road swing following a 99-92 victory against the struggling Celtics on Wednesday.So you can't blame the Trail Blazers if they feel fat and happy right now. Now, though, Portland draws Toronto. The Raptors went 8-1 in February concluding the month with an impressive 118-95 home blowout victory against the Celtics on Tuesday. Toronto is 26-6 at home. The Raptors draw the Trail Blazers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. So the Trail Blazers have a fatigue factor working against them, which isn't helped by swingman Evan Turner and center Enes Kanter not available to play. Portland has lost in its last three visits to Toronto going 1-2 ATS with its losing margin being 11 points. The Raptors have added motivation for this nonconference matchup. They lost 128-122 to Portland on Dec. 14. Point guard Kyle Lowery missed that game.
|02-28-19||Jazz v. Nuggets -6||111-104||Loss||-109||21 h 34 m||Show|
Denver owns the best home record in the NBA at 27-4. The Nuggets have covered 71 percent of those games, too, going 22-9 ATS at Pepsi Center. Next up for Denver is Utah, a team it has dominated at home. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU and ATS the past five times hosting the Jazz, including whipping them, 103-88, at Pepsi Center this season. The Jazz are weak on the road at 14-16. The Nuggets have a strong frontcourt with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. Their backcourt is solid with lots of depth due to the return of Gary Harris and Isaiah Thomas. The Nuggets have more scoring weapons and their defense has improved enough to be on par with Utah's. Each team gives up 106 points a game. The Jazz have to play a second straight night in high altitude while the Nuggets were idle Wednesday.
|02-28-19||Long Beach State +8.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara||69-64||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
If you go by won-lost records then this point spread is justified. Long Beach State is 11-18 overall and 5-8 in the Big West Conference. Cal Santa Barbara is 19-8 and 8-5 in league.Current form-wise, though, these teams are much closer than this point spread shows. The spot sets up well for Long Beach State, too. Oddsmakers don't have time to do in-depth study on minor conferences such as the Big West. They are assigning their point spread number based almost entirely on their power rankings. But now the 49ers are playing their finest basketball. They are 3-2 in their last five games, including winning their past two. Prior to last week, the 49ers had dropped eight of nine. Note, though, that five of those defeats occurred by seven points or fewer. Their last four defeats have been by an average of four points. Sophomore wing Jordan Roberts has helped spark this improvement scoring double digits during in each of the last three games after failing to reach that figure in 22 of the first 26 games. Santa Barbara was a level higher than Long Beach during the first half of the season. The Gauchos had aspirations to win the Big West title. But that's not going to happen. Santa Barbara won't be able to catch UC Irvine with only three regular season games left. The Gauchos are just about locked into a top-four spot. Long Beach State is 1 1/2 games out of fifth place in the Big West. The 49ers have incentive to finish fifith in the conference in order to gain a more favorable conference seeding. The Gauchos haven't been good in these type of situations. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against sub .500 opponents and have failed to cover in five of their past seven home games. The 49ers average nearly two more points per game than the Gauchos. They also have covered in their last four road contests. Long Beach State is undervalued here and a very live 'dog in my view.
|02-28-19||USC v. UCLA -3||88-93||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
UCLA is a better and different team than when it lost 80-67 to USC on Jan. 19. The Bruins had won the four previous games in the series. I see them bouncing back here. The Bruins are 12-5 ATS versus opponents sporting a losing road record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games versus opponents who have a winning home floor.
|02-28-19||Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio||65-64||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
Old Dominion has lost just once in its last 12 games. That loss, though, occurred to Texas San Antonio. I see the Monarchs getting their revenge here. Old Dominion shot just 30 percent from the field in that defeat while the Roadrunners were on fire from long distance connecting on 16 of 31 3-pointers. The Monarachs are the superior defense ranking in the top-10 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova UNDER 143.5||Top||61-67||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
Expect tremendous intensity in this matchup. Villanova is in revenge and stop-the-pain mode. The Wildcats' shooting has been way off. They need to win with defense. Marquette superstar Markus Howard isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury. There were only 131 points when the team's met the first time this season with Marquette nipping Villanova, 66-65. The teams are even more familiar with each other now.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova -5||61-67||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
I want Villanova going for me at home in desperate need of revenge and a victory. The Wildcats have lost three in a row. All of those defeats were on the road. They also lost to Marquette by one point on the road on Feb. 9. The Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games. They have covered six of the past eight times versus Marquette.
|02-27-19||Pacers -110 v. Mavs||101-110||Loss||-110||18 h 3 m||Show|
Indiana is 19 games above .500. Dallas is a bottom feeder now after trading away four of its five best players. The Mavericks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games, losing all of those matchups by nine or more points. So I find this number very cheap. The Pacers don't have their leading scorer, Victor Oladipo. But they have proven they can win without him going 8-2 in their last 10 games. Myles Turner has returned from a hip injury. He should be less rusty since this will be his second game back. The Pacers also have had recently acquired Wesley Matthews for the past five games. Matthews is averaging 17.3 points in his last three games. Matthews was one of the Mavericks' five best players this season until getting dealt. He knows Dallas well having been with the Mavericks for the previous four seasons. The Pacers are coming off a frustrating four-point road loss against the Pistons. Indiana has covered 67 percent of the time following a loss during the past 52 instances. The Pacers also have defeated the Mavericks in six of the past nine meetings, including 111-95 as 7 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 19.
|02-27-19||Bulls v. Grizzlies -3||109-107||Loss||-109||18 h 32 m||Show|
Even in a down season such as this one the Grizzlies have two things going for them: Strong defense and a noticeable home-court advantage. The Grizzlies give up the second-fewest points in the NBA. They also have covered in six of their last seven games at FedEx Forum. Memphis has plenty of motivation for this matchup. The Bulls defeated the Grizzlies, 122-110, in Chicago two weeks ago in the final game before the All-Star break. Otto Porter was huge for Chicago in that win scoring a career-high 37 points. Porter is questionable for this game because of a leg injury. The Bulls also could be minus point guard Kris Dunn due to a migraine. Both players missed the Bulls' last game. Mike Conley didn't play well against the Bulls. He's having a strong season, though, and has been hot scoring 25 or more points in five of his last nine games. Conley gives the Grizzlies a key backcourt edge especially if Dunn is out. The Grizzlies have an underrated frontcourt with recently acquired Jonas Valanciunas and former Bull Joakim Noah, who has produced three consecutive double-doubles, averaging 17.3 points and 10 rebounds in those games. Noah should be psyched to meet his former team. The Grizzlies give up seven fewer points per game than the Bulls. They are home. Have a backcourt edge and short revenge motivation.
|02-27-19||Houston v. East Carolina OVER 133.5||99-65||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
These teams met last month. East Carolina only managed 50 points. Yet the total still went Over. Now we have a much smaller total for the rematch. It's too short of a total given Houston's scoring ability and tendency to run up scores, which it did against the Pirates in the first meet. Houston poured in 94 points against East Carolina. That was the most points the Cougars had scored since their opening game versus non-league opponent Alabama A&M.
|02-26-19||Wisconsin v. Indiana UNDER 126||73-75||Loss||-109||8 h 44 m||Show|
I'm going to fade the line movement, which has been to the Over, and go with the Under in the belief this total has become inflated. Wisconsin has gone Under in nine of its last 11 games. The Badgers have a top-10 defense. So Under always is my first look with the Badgers. Wisconsin is giving up just 57.3 points per game during its last 10 games. Indiana is averaging only 56 points in regulation during its past four games. Indiana has a respectable defense giving up 67 points per game. The Hoosiers have surrendered just 55.5 points in regulation during their last two matchups. The Under has cashed in five of Indian's last six home contests.
|02-26-19||Magic -6.5 v. Knicks||Top||103-108||Loss||-110||18 h 26 m||Show|
The Knicks pleased Spike Lee by upsetting the Spurs on Sunday halting an 18-game home losing streak. But they didn't necessarily please New York management, which is angling for their team to get the No. 1 overall draft pick. I question the Knicks' motivation especially after putting a stop to the worst home losing streak in franchise history. New York has failed to cover the past five times after covering a spread. The Knicks also are 1-8 ATS the last nine times when playing on one day's rest. Orlando usually is in tank mode, too, at this stage of the season. Not this year, though. They are just one-half game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot in the East. The Magic have achieved this by winning their past five road matchups, including knocking off the Raptors, 113-98, this past Sunday. That pushed the Magic's record to 8-2 in their last 10 games. Unlike the Knicks, the Magic are 7-0 ATS when playing on one day's rest. They have covered five of the last six times against the Knicks, including burying them by 26 points during their last visit to Madison Square Garden on Nov. 11. It's an added plus for the Magic if Knicks center DeAndre Jordan has to miss another game with an ankle injury.
|02-25-19||Mavs v. Clippers -3.5||112-121||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
I want the Clippers going for me here and the price is right to back them. LA is off a 123-96 road loss to the Nuggets on Sunday. Dallas has become a bottom feeder after dealing four of its five best players at the trade deadline. That signalled the Mavericks clear intent to play for next season. The Mavericks are 0-4 in their last four games with all the losses coming by double-digits. Luka Doncic is back in action for Dallas after missing the past two games with a sore ankle. Doncic could be rusty, though.
|02-25-19||76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans||Top||111-110||Win||100||22 h 17 m||Show|
No Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis probably plays. Know this going in. But don't be intimidated by it. The 76ers have had several games to adjust to Embiid's absence. They still have other stars - Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons - and won't lack for motivation coming off a 130-115 embarrassing home loss to Portland on Saturday. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the past five times coming off a defeat. The Pelicans are not going to make the playoffs. Davis wants out, the team ranks 27th defensively, morale is shot and they don't have much of a home-court advantage anymore. New Orleans is a little fat and happy, too, off a 128-115 home win against the Lakers on Saturday in which Davis didn't play. Even when Davis suits up he doesn't play many minutes anymore because of his trade request issued last month. The Pelicans know Davis won't be with them next season so they don't use him that much. The Pelicans are 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. They are just 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS in their past eight home contests even with that victory against the Lakers. The 76ers have become more respectable on the road winning and covering four of their last six away matchups. This includes a nine-point victory against Golden State.
|02-25-19||Spurs +2 v. Nets||85-101||Loss||-113||9 h 20 m||Show|
I see the Spurs bouncing back on the final game of their hellish Rodeo road trip after am embarrassing 130-118 loss to the Knicks Sunday. Fatigue isn't a problem for the Spurs following the long All-Star break and they get Derrick White back for this game to help the point guard situation. The Nets are trying to work in Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell back together. They are not in sync yet. The Nets are trying to work in Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell back together. They are not in sync yet. The Nets are minus 11 in their first two games that Russell and LeVert have been on the court together since LeVert returned from injury.The Spurs have won the last seven meetings in the series and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 visits to Brooklyn.
|02-25-19||Pacers +3 v. Pistons||109-113||Loss||-112||21 h 28 m||Show|
I am often attracted to the better team getting points. That's the case here. Indiana is 8-1 in its last nine games. The Pacers surrender nearly five fewer points per game than the Pistons. Indiana has covered in eight of its last 11 games versus Detroit, including smashing the Pistons, 125-88, in its first meeting this season on Dec. 28.Detroit is playing well, too. The Pistons are 6-1 in their last seven games. This spurt has elevated them into a playoff spot right now. So they actually could have a letdown after burying the Heat, 119-96, on the road Saturday. Among the Pistons' past six wins were two victories against the Knicks, one versus the Hawks and one against Miami. The Pistons don't step up well. They are 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 instances when facing above .500 opponents.
|02-24-19||Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5||77-70||Loss||-130||4 h 45 m||Show|
I am riding MIchigan here. The Wolverines are 16-0 at home. They have covered six of their last seven home games and have owned the Spartans recently beating them by double digits during each of the past three meetings.
|02-24-19||Magic +9.5 v. Raptors||Top||113-98||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
Unlike the past few years, the Magic come out of All-Star break very live to make the playoffs. Orlando is playing well going 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Raptors do not have a good history in this type of spot and have failed to cover in two previous meetings versus the Magic, winning 93-91 as seven-point road favorites on Nov. 20 and losing 116-87 as five-point road favorites on Dec. 28. Nikola Vucevic had 30 points and 19 rebounds in that Orlando victory. Vucevic gives the Magic the best big man on the floor. Toronto may not have its full intensity coming off an emotional, 120-117, home win against Kawhi Leonard's former team the Spurs this past Friday. The Raptors have failed to cover 11 of the last 16 times when meeting a foe with a sub .500 record. Toronto also is 10-20 ATS the last 30 times when favored. Orlando has covered in six of its past seven road contests.
|02-23-19||Kings +7 v. Thunder||119-116||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
First off, Sacramento is one of the most improved teams in the league. The Kings have played 58 games - 70 percent of the season - and are above .500 just two games out of a playoff spot. The Kings have emerging young talent and they bolstered that at the trade deadline picking up solid pros Harrison Barnes, Alec Burks and Corey Brewer. So the Kings are capable of hanging in against Oklahoma City. But Sacramento also catches a break because the Thunder just nipped Utah, 148-147, in double overtime at home in a game that concluded late Friday night. The Thunder had four of their starters log more than 40 minutes with Paul George playing 50 minutes. The Thunder won in dramatic style on a basket by George with less than a second left. Sacramento has a strong recent history versus Oklahoma City covering in six of the last seven meetings. The Kings also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times playing in Oklahoma City.
|02-23-19||Florida State +7 v. North Carolina||59-77||Loss||-109||12 h 39 m||Show|
Florida State is riding a season-high eight-game win streak. The Seminoles are off a 77-64 road win against Clemson this past Tuesday. They draw North Carolina off an emotional victory against its biggest rival, Duke. Any time the Tar Heels just beat Duke they are ripe for a letdown in their next game. The Seminoles are the best in the ACC in two-point percentage defense. The Tar Heels rank seventh in the ACC in giving up points per 100 possessions.
|02-23-19||Loyola Marymount -1 v. Pacific||63-56||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
Loyola Marymount buried Pacific, 60-42, in the first meeting between these teams as six-point favorites as they dominated the boards and the Lions are in a great spot to do it again. The Lions are off losses to Gonzaga and BYU. They have been idle for a week. Pacfic just played on Thursday night where the Tigers lost, 58-32, to St. Mary's. Pacific is averaging just 50 points in its last three games. Loyola Marymount is tough in these spots, too, going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times versus a foe with a losing mark.
|02-23-19||Indiana State v. Missouri State UNDER 132.5||61-67||Win||100||18 h 45 m||Show|
Missouri State has gone Under in 11 of its last 13 games. I'm going to ride that trend. The most points the Bears have surrendered during their last nine games is 65 points. They have held seven of their past nine opponents to 63 or fewer points. Indiana State just held Illinois State to 50 points in its last game.
|02-22-19||Nuggets -3.5 v. Mavs||114-104||Win||100||16 h 5 m||Show|
Denver is just about at full strength now with the return of underrated shooting guard Gary Harris. The Nuggets hold a solid frontline edge, too, on the Mavericks, who no longer have DeAndre Jordan to protect the rim against emerging superstar Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The Mavericks got much worst at the trade deadline. In an effort to set themselves up for the future, the Mavericks dealt four of their five best players. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is left with star rookie point guard Luka Doncic and a motley collection of role players whose spots in the rotation haven't been fully determined. The Nuggets own the second-best record in the Western Conference. They are clearly the superior team and shouldn't lack for motivation coming off break and with three Western Conference playoff teams looming as their next three opponents. This is a game the Nuggets can't afford to get tripped up on.
|02-22-19||Clippers -116 v. Grizzlies||112-106||Win||100||16 h 50 m||Show|
The Clippers would be in the playoffs if the season ended now. They are better than the Grizzlies and can't afford to take a loss here. The Clippers have a strong track record in this instance going 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 road games versus an opponent with a losing home mark and being 17-5-1 ATS the past 23 times when playing on three or more days rest. Memphis, by comparison, is 1-5 ATS the last six times when in action after three or more days rest and has failed to cover 17 of the last 25 times when taking on an opponent with a winning record. The Grizzlies are in clear rebuild mode after dealing team cornerstone Marc Gasol at the trade deadline.
|02-22-19||Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 222.5||111-126||Loss||-110||3 h 53 m||Show|
The Pacers are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA yielding just 102.9 points a game. The Pelicans are not good defensively, but both teams figure to be rusty coming off break. In Thursday's action, five of the six games went Under the total, all by quite a bit. The Pacers are averaging only 100.3 points in their last three games. The Pelicans have cut back the minutes of star big man Anthony Davis, which hurts their offense.
|02-22-19||Harvard -1.5 v. Brown||Top||79-88||Loss||-113||18 h 38 m||Show|
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair.The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
|02-21-19||Rockets -2.5 v. Lakers||Top||106-111||Loss||-109||20 h 11 m||Show|
James Harden, Chris Paul and returning Clint Capela trump LeBron James. That's the bottom line here. The Rockets are back to full health. Paul is in shape and playing well again. Capela is expected to play after missing the last 15 games with a thumb injury. Harden is the MVP of the league scoring 30 or more points in 31 consecutive games. Houston is 21-10 in those games. While the Rockets are among the five best teams in the NBA, the Lakers may not even make the playoffs. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games. James has been back for five games since missing 17 games due to a groin injury. But Lonzo Ball remains out with an ankle injury. The Lakers learned one thing during James' absence - Luke Walton can't coach. Houston is 3-0 versus the Lakers this season after going 4-0 against LA last season. The Rockets also have covered in eight of their past 10 road games versus the Lakers.
|02-21-19||Blazers -2.5 v. Nets||113-99||Win||100||3 h 20 m||Show|
Now that word has come out that Damian Lillard will play, I'm going to get behind the Trail Blazers. Portland is the better team, plays in the better conference and upgraded its frontcourt recently picking up Enes Kanter, who is quite eager to display his talents having endured a difficult time in New York with the Knicks. Portland is 9-1 ATS following a layoff of three or more days.
|02-21-19||UCF +8 v. Cincinnati||55-60||Win||100||6 h 9 m||Show|
Central Florida is playing well with three straight victories. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see the Knights being outclassed at all in this matchup. They are getting balanced scoring and play with a great deal of intensity. Both teams are strong defensively ranking among the top 40. So taking this many points is huge. The Bearcats have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when going against an above .500 opponent.
|02-20-19||Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown||Top||73-85||Loss||-108||18 h 21 m||Show|
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
|02-19-19||Alabama -123 v. Texas A&M||Top||56-65||Loss||-123||8 h 14 m||Show|
Alabama is on a two-game losing skid. The Crimson Tide are coming off a terrible 18-point home loss to Florida. I expect them to be ready here. They have not lost three games all season and are 14-3 ATS following a double-digit home defeat. Alabama could damage its NCAA Tournament chances with a loss here. The Crimson Tide are the better team - ranked 56th in the latest Ken Pom ratings compared to Texas A&M being rated 98th - and have revenge. The Aggies nipped them, 81-80, on a buzzer beater. The Tide were 7 1/2-point home favorites in that matchup, which occurred on Jan. 12. Alabama led for all but four minutes in that game. Texas A&M is 3-9 in the SEC. The Aggies' other two conference victories were against Georgia and Missouri, who have a combined 4-20 SEC record. Texas A&M is just 4-10 ATS at home this season.
|02-19-19||Vanderbilt +18 v. Tennessee||46-58||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
Vandy is on a 13-game losing streak. But the Commodores have hung close in eight of those losses, either leading or trailing by no more than five points in the final four minutes. They nearly upset then top-ranked Tennessee on Jan. 23 losing in overtime. Tennessee just lost it's No. 1 ranking by losing to Kentucky this past Saturday. The Volunteers have to be down about that defeat. The Commodores take this matchup far more serious than the Volunteers.
|02-18-19||Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin||Top||58-64||Win||100||18 h 5 m||Show|
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent.The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
|02-17-19||Team LeBron v. Team Giannis UNDER 312||Top||178-164||Loss||-105||32 h 10 m||Show|
The NBA switched their All-Star Game format last season with two superstars picking the teams. Team LeBron James beat Team Stephen Curry, 148-145, last season. This new format has made for more of a competitive game where there is a sliver of defense, especially compared to previous games, as the players seem to care more. The combined total of last year's game was 293. So I see this year's contest also coming under the posted total. There's a chance LeBron's team could be without Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. Those are two of the top offensive players in the league.
|02-17-19||Fairfield v. Niagara UNDER 147||73-78||Loss||-109||3 h 51 m||Show|
Fairfield is having trouble scoring. The Staggs are averaging just 54.6 points per game during their last five games. But they are playing strong defense holding four of their last five foes to fewer than 63 points a game. The Under has cashed in each of their last nine games. Niagara is averaging 64.6 points per game in its last three games. These teams have a strong Under bias, too, with 10 of the last 13 meetings between the two schools going below the total.
|02-16-19||Northwestern +5 v. Nebraska||50-59||Loss||-109||18 h 26 m||Show|
Northwestern is in stop-the-pain mode suffering five straight losses, including close defeats to Iowa and Rutgers in their last two games. The Wildcats lost those two games by a combined four points. I see the Wildcats bouncing back against Nebraska, which has become a point spread nightmare going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, including failing to cover in its last six home contests. The Cornhuskers' collapse has coincided with a season-ending injury suffered by forward Isaac Copeland on Jan. 26. He is Nebraska's second leading scorer and rebounder. Nebraska was lucky to end its seven-game losing streak by beating Minnesota in its last game. The Gophers practically handed Nebraska the victory. That won't happen against Northwestern. Bottom line is Nebraska can't be a mid-sized favorite against any Big Ten team right now.
|02-16-19||Tennessee v. Kentucky -3||Top||69-86||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.