|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 158||71-95||Loss||-105||2 h 38 m||Show|
These teams have a history of going Under when playing in Iowa and I see that continuing here. I can see Illinois' freshmen having problems against the Hawkeyes' defense at this venue especially coming off a high-scoring home win. The Under has cashed the last four times the Illinis have gone against an above .500 opponent. Iowa is off an upset road victory against Penn State. The Under has cashed eight of the last 10 times Iowa has played after it won its previous game.
|01-19-19||Northern Colorado v. Weber State -4||64-78||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
These are the two best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State is 6-0 versus Northern Colorado during the past three seasons in regular season action. The Wildcats, though, have revenge. Northern Colorado ended their season in the Big Sky Conference Tournament last season. That game was played at a neutral site. Weber State has won 86 percent of its conference home games under Coach Randy Rahe. The Wildcats have a size advantage and the superior defense. Weber State doesn't lack for scoring averaging 82.6 points and is a strong defensive rebounding team so it can limit Northern Colorado's second chance opportunities.
|01-19-19||Florida International v. Marshall -8.5||97-105||Loss||-105||9 h 47 m||Show|
This is going to be a track meet. I see Florida International being slow here after coming from 16 points down with 12 minutes to pull off a stunning, 77-76, upset road win against Western Kentucky this past Thursday. The Golden Panthers were 10-point underdogs in that game. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA at 4-0. They are 4-0 the past four times facing the Golden Panthers, covering five of the last six meetings.
|01-18-19||St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5||57-68||Win||100||6 h 13 m||Show|
St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury.
|01-17-19||BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5||87-76||Loss||-109||7 h 49 m||Show|
Lorenzo Romar is doing an outstanding job with Pepperdine. The Waves have covered 10 of their 16 lined games, including going 5-1 ATS at home. Word is BYU could be missing its third leading scorer with guard Jashire Hardnett dealing with a hand injury. The Cougars have been brutal on the road covering just one of their last 11 away matchups. They have lost SU to Illinois State, Weber State and UNLV as road favorites already this season. Even in bad years, Pepperdine has been tough against BYU at home covering the past seven times.
|01-17-19||Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 133.5||Top||59-54||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
After three straight Overs, look for Oregon to go Under the total in this matchup. The Ducks are going back to slowing things down following games against racehorses UCLA and USC. Arizona plays at a much more deliberate tempo than the Bruins and Trojans. Both Oregon and Arizona are outstanding defensive teams. Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and gives up the 35th-fewest points in the nation. The Ducks are without their star shot blocker injured center Bol Bol,but could get big man Kenny Wooten back. The Ducks apply tremendous pressure on the ball ranking No. 1 in the Pac 12 in forcing turnovers. The Wildcats rank 45th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.1 points. Two strong defenses in a game where the tempo should be slow. That spells Under.
|01-16-19||Minnesota v. Illinois +2||68-95||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
Both teams aren't very good. But Illinois has played a tough schedule and has talented freshmen who are coming on. The Illini desperately need to win this home game. They draw Minnesota fat and happy after an easy win against Rutgers. The Gophers have a history of not covering against sub .500 teams going 6-20 ATS in that role the past 26 times. Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, are playing at home, in circle-the-wagons mode and won't be outclassed here.
|01-15-19||LSU +4 v. Ole Miss||83-69||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
LSU showed it could win on the road beating Arkansas this past Saturday. The Tigers are a good value play against overacheiving Mississippi, which is in a letdown spot after breaking into the Top 25 for the first time in six years. The Rebels achieved this by beating two Top-15 opponents last week. Heady stuff, but the Rebels are not used to being the hunted now. The Rebels have been underdogs in their last three games, all SEC matchups. LSU has won five in a row. The Tigers are the more talented team with the size and perimeter shooting to knock off the Rebels straight-up.
|01-15-19||Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 128.5||49-51||Win||100||17 h 21 m||Show|
These two teams met twice last season and the combined final score totals were 125 and 112 points, respectively. Both games went Under the total. This was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Under has cashed in this series. Expect that trend to continue in today's matchup. Akron is averaging 66 points in three MAC games this season. The Zips are shooting only 36 percent from the floor and 23.7 percent from 3-point range in conference play. Both teams play at a very slow tempo. The Under is 18-7-1 in Eastern Michigan's last 26 MAC contests. The Zips figure to struggled against Eastern Michigan's matchup zone defense given their shooting woes. Akron is playing solid defense this season ranking 50th in field goal percentage defense.
|01-12-19||St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount||71-60||Win||100||18 h 12 m||Show|
I'm not buying Loyola Marymount as a live 'dog here. St. Mary's is a traditional power having won 20 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. The Gaels can't afford a loss here knowing Gonzaga is highly likely to win the West Coast Conference. Loyola Marymount's 12-3 record is bogus because of an easy schedule. The Gaels have dominated Loyola Marymount winning the past 10 times, including covering in the last five meetings. St. Mary's should have no problem taking advantage of the Lions' weak 3-point shooting.
|01-12-19||Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5||83-97||Win||100||15 h 6 m||Show|
NC Wilmington is in circle-the-wagons mode having already lost two straight Colonial Athletic Association games at home. The Seahawks draw Drexel, a team they have beat six consecutive times, with the Dragons in a letdown spot. The Dragons just shocked Charleston, 79-78, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog on Thursday. Drexel rallied from a 13-point deficit. Charleston had the second-longest home win streak at 22 in back of only Houston. NC Wilmington has covered five of its last six home games, while Drexel is 1-4 ATS following a victory.
|01-10-19||Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -115||64-67||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
Santa Clara is underpriced here coming off a loss to Gonzaga. Certainly there is no shame in that. The Broncos had won eight of their last nine before that. They own victories at home against USC and San Diego. The Broncos can certainly handle Pepperdine especially in a revenge spot after the Wave knocked them out of the WCC Tournament last season by hitting an incredible 70 percent of their shots. Santa Clara has been strong against the spread all season covering 69 percent. I'll ride the Broncos here.
|01-10-19||UCLA v. Oregon OVER 141.5||87-84||Win||100||19 h 57 m||Show|
UCLA isn't a particularly good defensive team. Oregon is, or make that was. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage, but that is going to change. The Ducks lost their defensive presence with injuries to 7-foot-2 Bol Bol and 6-foot-8 Kenny Wooten. Oregon just surrendered 77 points to Oregon State in its last game. That was nearly four points more than the Beavers were averaging on the season. The Bruins are a different team, too, because of the coaching change from Steve Alford to interim coach Murry Bartow. In two games under Bartow, the Bruins scored 92 points versus Stanford and 98 against Cal. They are much more up-tempo under Bartow than they were under Alford, who is a Bobby Knight disciple.
|01-10-19||Michigan -9 v. Illinois||79-69||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games.
|01-09-19||Ohio State v. Rutgers UNDER 134||61-64||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
Ohio State gives up the 31st fewest points in the country - and that's after surrendering 86 points to Michigan State in its last game. So expect the Buckeyes to really clamp down on Rutgers, which averages fewer than 69 points per game.
|01-08-19||Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5||Top||74-85||Loss||-108||17 h 24 m||Show|
Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
|01-05-19||Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5||72-66||Loss||-109||10 h 47 m||Show|
Northern Illinois enters this matchup off a deflating 88-60 loss to eighth-ranked Michigan State last Saturday. The Huskies hadn't met an opponent that high ranked since 1996. The Huskies are 1-4 on the road this season. They didn't beat a MAC team on the road last season. You have to go back to Feb. 21 of 2017 to find the last time Northern Illinois beat a MAC team away from home. Ohio is 7-0 at home. The Bobcats have covered seven of their last 10 home games. The Bobcats defeated the Huskies, 78-68, at home last season. That was the fourth straight time they have covered against the Huskies.
|01-04-19||Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan||74-58||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst college basketball teams against the spread this season failing to cover in eight of its nine lined games. The Eagles have lost six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in four of those last six points. I think this line is short so I'm going to ride with 12-1 Buffalo, which has proven itself on the road covering five of six lined away games. The Bulls have defeated much better teams on the road, including West Virginia and Syracuse. The 20th-ranked Bulls should be focused since this is their Mid-American Conference opener.
|01-02-19||Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming||Top||69-55||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
|12-29-18||Oregon v. Boise State UNDER 134||62-50||Win||100||16 h 22 m||Show|
These same two teams met just two weeks ago and Oregon won, 66-54, at home for a combined total of 120. That stayed well under the 133 lined total. Oregon didn't have its leading scorer, center Bol Bol, for that game. He's out for this game, too. The Ducks average 61 points without him. Oregon is a strong under team. The Ducks rank 35th defensively and have slowed their pace. The under has cashed in five of their past six games. Boise State is a better defensive team than an offensive one. The Broncos don't push pace either. These teams are familar with each other. So I see another low-scoring game.
|12-25-18||Indiana State +12 v. TCU||69-83||Loss||-108||20 h 54 m||Show|
I like taking double-digits with a Missouri Valley Conference team especially in a rare nonconference revenge spot. Indiana State finds itself a big 'dog to TCU in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The Sycamores rebounded from a 90-70 road loss to TCU on Dec. 16 to beat Colorado and UNLV in the tournament to reach the finals. The Sycamores were hoping to draw the Hornets Frogs - and they have. Indiana State played in the early Sunday semifinal game. So the Sycamores have a little added rest considering the Horned Frogs had to play in the late semifinal game against Bucknell Sunday. The Sycamores are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. They've had one poor shooting game from beyond the arc - and that came against TCU. Indiana State was just 3-for-16 in 3-pointers against the Horned Frogs. The Sycamores are going to be highly motivated and they should shoot much better being ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal accuracy.
|12-22-18||Drake v. New Mexico State UNDER 143.5||66-63||Win||100||18 h 35 m||Show|
Note this game is being played at a neutral site - the Orleans Arena is Las Vegas. Neutral sites often are plus for the Under since neither team is familar with the gym and basket. New Mexico State and Drake both are huge Under teams when playing at neutral sites. The Aggies have gone Under in 69 percent of their last 43 neutral site games. The Under has cashed 73 percent of the time in Drake's past 40 neutral site matchups. New Mexico State ranks 66th defensively. The Aggies held Kansas to 63 points. That was 18 points below the Jayhawks' scoring average. Drake is from the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs have held three of their last four opponents to 66 or fewer points. New Mexico State is not a good free throw shooting team.
|12-20-18||Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4||66-67||Loss||-109||18 h 44 m||Show|
Long Beach is better than its 3-9 record may indicate. The 49ers are playing just their fourth home game. They are 2-1 at home, but 0-7 in true road games. Their road schedule has been tough, though, with losses to UCLA, USC, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Fresno State. The 49ers' schedule has been much more difficult than Pepperdine's. The Waves are 1-4 in their last five games, struggling on both offense and defense. Pepperdine has failed to reach the 70-point mark in their last three games. The Waves have yet to win on the road. They are are 5-15-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
|12-20-18||James Madison v. Fordham UNDER 130.5||48-75||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
Fordham Under has been an outstanding money-maker in non-conference games such as this one going 20-8-1 the past 29 times. Neither team pushes pace. Both are stronger defensively than on offense. So expect a slow, half-court type of game with defense getting the upper hand.
|12-19-18||Auburn v. NC State OVER 157||Top||71-78||Loss||-110||9 h 17 m||Show|
NC State ranks ninth in the nation in points per game at 88.9. Auburn is 19th averaging 84.8. Neither is going to back down. The pace is going to be fast and up-tempo. That's the way Wolfpack like it and Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has a history of obliging up-tempo teams, especially when he spots weakness. The Wolfpack are not strong in transition defense. Only twice in 10 games has NC State failed to reach 80 points. The Tigers have gone Over in each of their last two games and three of their last four.
|12-15-18||Penn State v. NC State UNDER 147||78-89||Loss||-115||5 h 40 m||Show|
Penn State has been an Under machine goine below the total in seven of its last eight games. The Nittany Lions have the defense to frustrate North Carolina State. They give up the 44th-fewest points in the country. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times Penn State has met an ACC opponent.
Note this game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, a neutral site that has a reputation for being tough to shoot in.
|12-12-18||San Diego v. Oregon UNDER 143||55-65||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
San Diego is strong defensively. No surprise there. The Toreros rank 52nd in fewest points allow and have the 24th-best defense against 3-pointers. Their last three games have all gone Under. The Toreros understand their calling card is defense. So they don't look to run or push pace. Excellent style for an Under. San Diego should be even more methodical in its shot selection knowing Oregon ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. The question is will Oregon cooperate by not playing up-tempo? Judging by the Ducks' last two games and the switches they made they will. Oregon's pace was more deliberate in its last game, an 84-61 home win against Nebraska-Omaha that stayed under the total. Freshman Louis King made his season debut in that game after being out all season with a knee injury. He's 6-foot-9 and teamed well with 7-2 center Bol Bol to provide a strong rebounding and shot-blocking presence. The Ducks lost 65-61 on the road to Houston in their previous game before Nebraska-Omaha. That game, too, went well Under the total.
|12-11-18||Colorado -5 v. New Mexico||78-75||Loss||-105||12 h 2 m||Show|
I have great respect for New Mexico when the Lobos are playing at home like they are here. The Pit is a very difficult venue for road teams. Colorado has been weak on the road the past couple of seasons going 6-20 in true road games. Most of those losses, though, came to Pac-12 schools. The Buffaloes have a real shot to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Colorado has a balanced attack that is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.2 points. New Mexico is one of the weakest defensive teams in the nation ranking 351th in points allowed at 86.1 and is 334th in defensive shooting percentage at 48.7. According to the Pomeroy rating, Colorado ranks 60th in the country while New Mexico is 158th. The Buffaloes don't play again until Dec. 22. So they should be focused. The spread is short enough to back the Buffs.
|12-08-18||Montana v. Cal-Irvine -3.5||51-60||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
Montana has been incredibly accurate from the field this season, but Cal-Irvine is home and is a strong defensive team. The Anteaters are experienced with 94 percent of its offense back. They already have defeated Texas A&M and St. Mary's this season along with a 20-point victory against Idaho. Montana has failed to cover during its past seven road games. The Grizzlies also are 1-5 ATS during their last six nonconference games.
|12-06-18||Drake -130 v. Wisc-Milwaukee||Top||75-61||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
This is a short price to lay to not only get the superior team, but also get them when they are in a better situation even being the road club. Drake is the 191st best team in the country, according to the highly-respected Pomeroy Ratings. UW-Milwaukee is rated 272nd. The Bulldogs ranks 61st in the nation in scoring at more than 81 points a game. That's 12 points higher per game than UWM. Drake has won and covered its past four games. The Bulldogs have beaten Boise State, North Dakota State and Texas State. The Panthers have lost at home to North Dakota and squeaked past LIU Brooklyn in overtime at home. The Bulldogs have been idle since Saturday. The Panthers just returned from having played two games in Ireland, losing in blowout fashion to Stephen F. Austin and Buffalo.
|12-05-18||San Francisco v. California +6.5||79-60||Loss||-107||7 h 20 m||Show|
California has a lot youth, but the Golden Bears have five solid scorers and are excellent from 3-point range ranking ninth-best in the country in 3-point accuracy. This is a golden spot for the Golden Bears, who are home and taking on a San Francisco team that played in Ireland this past Saturday. It often takes a week to get rid of jet lag. Given Cal's shooting and the Dons' situation, taking these many points is worthy of an investment.
|12-04-18||St. Peter's v. Clemson UNDER 136||Top||60-65||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
St. Peter's ranks 318th in the nation in scoring at 66.6. Clemson holds foes to 66 points a game. The last time the Peacocks went up against a major opponent they scored only 49 points versus Auburn. Clemson doesn't push pace like Auburn and other opponents St. Peter's has faced. So tempo should be slow. The Under is 35-15-1 in the Peacocks' past 51 road games for 70 percent!
|12-01-18||James Madison v. Old Dominion UNDER 129.5||42-67||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
The Under has cashed the last four times between these two teams. Both games were low-scoring last season with Old Dominion winning 69-53 and 62-55. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow tempo. KenPom ranks Old Dominion's pace as the 13th slowest in the nation. James Madison is turnover-prone and can play slow, too. The Dukes' last two final scores are misleading because both games went into overtime.
|11-27-18||Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State||Top||82-67||Win||100||21 h 39 m||Show|
Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
|11-23-18||Arkansas State v. NC-Wilmington OVER 155.5||64-78||Loss||-109||8 h 29 m||Show|
Arkansas State has gone Over the total in 11 of its last 13 games. This includes both lined games this season. The Red Wolves are a terrible defensive team, but like to push pace. The same with UNC Wilmington. Fast pace plus bad defense means lot of points.
Wilmington has gone Over the total in 12 of its last 16 non conference games.
|11-22-18||Michigan State v. UCLA UNDER 158||87-67||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
Look for defense to prevail in this marquee matchup. Both teams have been involved in high scoring games while playing inferior competition. Now each team faces a serious defense. Michigan State piled up 106 points versus Florida Gulf Coast and 101 points to Tennessee Tech. UCLA is 4-0 with victories against Purdue Fort Wayne, Long Beach State, St. Francis and Presbyterian. All of those victories came at home. Now the Bruins are meeting Michigan State at a neutral site, the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
|11-18-18||Pennsylvania v. Kansas State UNDER 146.5||48-64||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
This total opened too high based on perception. Kansas State scored 95 points on Eastern Kentucky in its last game two days ago. But Penn is an entirely opposite opponent. The Quakers do not push tempo. The Wildcats are a more deliberate type team, too.
|11-16-18||Kennesaw State v. Missouri UNDER 133||52-55||Win||100||6 h 60 m||Show|
Note this game is at a neutral site in the Virgin Islands in a gym unfamilar to both teams, which is a plus for the Under. Kennesaw State hasn't shown anything offensively scoring a combined 101 points versus Kansas State and Samford. The Under has cashed in seven of its last nine games.
|03-27-18||Western Kentucky -120 v. Utah||Top||64-69||Loss||-120||18 h 44 m||Show|
Surprised that Western Kentucky has reached the NIT semifinals? You shouldn't be. The Hilltoppers average nearly 79 points a game, have five solid starters and are 4-1 against Power-5 conference opponents with victories against Purdue, Boston College, Oklahoma State and USC. The Hilltoppers are road tested - defeating USC and Oklahoma State away during this tournament - and played a tougher preseason schedule than Utah, the lone remaining team from what has turned out to be a weak Pac-12 year. Utah has had a much easier NIT draw than Western Kentucky getting Cal Davis, a banged-up LSU team and weak foul-shooting St. Mary's squad that it beat in overtime. The much respected Pomeroy ratings rank Western Kentucky 45th in the country compared to Utah's 57th.
|03-25-18||Duke -145 v. Kansas||Top||81-85||Loss||-145||28 h 12 m||Show|
I want Duke going for me here. The Blue Devils are the best team, underline the word team, in the country this season. Not only are the Blue Devils a top-12 in the nation scoring and shooting team, but their defense has become elite. The Blue Devils' defense improved since Mike Krzyewski switched to primary zone with a few tweaks a couple of months ago. Since that time, the Blue Devils have ranked in the top-five in the country in defensive efficiency. Kansas needs to shoot very well to beat Duke. I don't see that happening especially given senior point guard Devonte' Graham's shooting woes. Graham has made just 14 of 33 shots from the floor for 33 percent while missing 12 of 17 3-point shots during the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks' defense hasn't been that crisp either. They've allowed 79 and 76 points in their last two games. The Jayhawks were able to get away with beating Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson despite these flaws. They won't be able to get away with Graham's poor shooting and lackluster defense versus Duke. I can see Kansas center Odoka Azubuike having problems and getting into foul trouble dealing with Duke's two low-post threats, Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. Bagley and Carter are considered to be top-eight picks in the NBA draft with Bagley possibly going as high as No. 2. They've helped Duke lead the nation in offensive rebounding. Duke got its mediocre game out of the way by beating Syracuse, 69-65, on Friday. Despite that non-cover, the Blue Devils are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They also have covered six of the past seven times following an ATS loss. The Blue Devils will find Kansas' zone easier to penetrate than Syracuse's.
|03-23-18||West Virginia +5 v. Villanova||Top||78-90||Loss||-105||18 h 5 m||Show|
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here.
|03-22-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -113||Top||69-68||Loss||-113||13 h 55 m||Show|
It's a minor miracle that either of these two teams are still in the NCAA Tournament. Both are legitimate, but fortunate. Nevada, though, is better and the matchup favors the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are more athletic, have more length across the board and a far more explosive offense. They also are more battle tested as this was a down year in the Missouri Valley Conference and have the better coach with Eric Musselman. Nevada averaged 83 points. That ranked 16th-best in the country and is more than 11 points more per game than Loyola. But a key here is the Wolfpack averaged just 9.6 turnovers per game, which was the fourth-lowest in the country. So Nevada isn't sloppy. Another key is 3-point shooting. Both teams ranked tied for 20th in 3-point shooting percentage. It's a key part of their arsenals. However, Nevada defends the 3-pointer better than the Ramblers ranking 19th in 3-point percentage defense. The Wolfpack have displayed tremendous reslilence in the tournament coming back from a 14-point, second-half deficit to nail an overtime win against Texas and then emerging from 22 points down to stun No. 2 seed Cincinnati. Not to take anything away from the Ramblers, but they faced a pair of very young teams in the tournament, Tennessee and Miami. The Ramblers got past both of these opponents by hitting buzzer-beaters. Nevada is a much more veteran team with five of its top six players either a junior or senior. This is the Wolfpack's easiest game yet in the tournament. The price is right to get involved backing them.
|03-21-18||Utah v. St. Mary's -6||Top||67-58||Loss||-106||19 h 46 m||Show|
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them.
|03-19-18||Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 144.5||81-85||Loss||-107||17 h 22 m||Show|
Not only does Saint Mary's rank 12th defensively in the nation, but they play one of the slowest paces in the country being very deliberate offensively. That combination has been instrumental in the Gaels going Under in 68 percent of their last 51 games. Washington has a strong zone defense imported from Syracuse by its coach, Mike Hopkins. Opponents who haven't seen the Huskies can have problems with this zone defense. The Huskies have gone Under in 20 of their last 26 away matchups. They have the top defensive player in the Pac-12 in Matisse Thybulle.
|03-19-18||Washington +11 v. St. Mary's||81-85||Win||100||17 h 21 m||Show|
Saint Mary's definitely deserved to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Gaels aren't a great team. They are down from past seasons. The Gaels played a very weak non-conference schedule, barely beat Pepperdine in the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament and then were blown out in the semifinals by BYU. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Washington can match up to the Gaels being the more athletic team and having strong guard play headed by Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. The Huskies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Part of why this line is so high is Saint Mary's being 17-1 at home this season. But the Gaels are not invincible at home. Gonzaga proved that with a 78-65 victory at Saint Mary's on Feb. 10. Saint Mary's also lost 84-79 to Washington State back on Nov. 24. Washington played Washington State twice and beat the Cougars twice by a combined 23 points.
|03-18-18||Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5||Top||71-94||Win||100||18 h 36 m||Show|
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here.
|03-18-18||Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10||43-50||Loss||-113||15 h 53 m||Show|
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton.
|03-17-18||Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas||Top||79-83||Win||100||14 h 4 m||Show|
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style.
|03-17-18||Rhode Island v. Duke UNDER 149.5||62-87||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
I'm not sold on Rhode Island's perimeter game. I see the Rams struggling to hit their outside shots against Duke's tough zone defenses. The Blue Devils have held seven of their last nine opponents to fewer than 69 points. The Under has cashed during eight of these past nine Duke games. The Rams can't count on getting to the foul line either as Duke's ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest fouls. Rhode Island is very solid defensively allowing 68.2 points per game and ranking 47th in 3-point defense. I can envision the Rams bothering the Blue Devils, who have been turnover-prone, with their fullcourt pressure defense. "Our program is built around defense and making our opponent uncomfortable," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley was quoted as saying after the Rams held Oklahoma to 69 points during regulation in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Sooners were ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 84.9.
|03-16-18||New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson||68-79||Loss||-102||20 h 22 m||Show|
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January.
|03-16-18||College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn||Top||58-62||Win||100||18 h 26 m||Show|
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright.
|03-15-18||Montana v. Michigan -10||Top||47-61||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits.
|03-15-18||NC State v. Seton Hall -135||83-94||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
Kudos to Kevin Keatts for the remarkable job he did this season at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack really overachieved going from a sub .500 team of a year ago to making the Big Dance this season. But this is a bad matchup for the Wolfpack. Their lack of tournament experience, poor defensive field goal percentage and mediocre rebounding is going to cost them against Seton Hall in this first round Midwest Region game. When the point spread is short like this, I often like to play the money line laying a little higher juice for more protection. There should be good shopping in this regards with a lot of money line flucutation. Often a team goes through stages gradually improving until they are ripe to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. That's the case with Seton Hall. The Pirates are making their third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. They lost in their first-round game to powerhouse Gonzaga two years ago and lost in controversial fashion last season to Arkansas on a flagrant foul call late in the game when trailing by only one point. I believe the due factor kicks in for Seton Hall here. The Pirates have the experience - with four senior starters - and talent to beat this opponent. Those starting seniors - Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo - are the most successful recruiting group Seton Hall has had in a long time. Rodriguez is averaging nearly 18 points and five rebounds per game and Delgado is the Big East's career rebounding leader. The other starter, sophomnore guard Myles Powell, averages 15.4 points a game and was named the Big East's Most Improved Player. The Pirates enter the tournament having covered in their last five games. While North Carolina State did go 11-7 in the ACC, its non-conference schedule ranked just 343rd in the country as far as strenth of schedule. North Carolina State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to hit 53.5 percent of their two-point shots, and is 307th in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall can exploit this ranking among the top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage and rating 26th in terms of points per 100 possessions. The timing is ripe for these outstanding Seton Hall seniors to win an NCAA Tournament game. That time is now.
|03-14-18||BYU v. Stanford -135||83-86||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
Stanford plays in the better conference and was tough down the stretch going 5-2. A victory against Arizona State 11 days ago was especially impressive. BYU hasn't been impressive on the road losing at Pacific, Loyola-Marymount and San Diego while going into overtime against Pepperdine. The Cardinal have covered in eight of their last nine home contests. Stanford has a balanced scoring attack paced by forward Reid Travis, one of the better players in the Pac-10. BYU ranks just 231st in defensive field goal percentage allowing opponents to hit nearly 45 percent of their field goals.
|03-13-18||North Carolina-Asheville +18 v. USC||98-103||Win||100||15 h 13 m||Show|
USC can destroy this team if it wants. But I don't see the Trojans having the motivation after failing to make the NCAA Touranment. The Trojans were royally ripped-off in not making the tournament. This is their first NIT bid since 1999 - and they certainly aren't excited about it. Their home court edge isn't going to amount to that much either because it's spring break on the USC campus. UNC Asheville have experienced guards, which is a key in tournament action especially when on the road. The Bulldogs are excited about taking on the Trojans. They have covered in seven of their last 10 matchups versus opponents who have a winning percentage above .600.
|03-13-18||Southeastern Louisiana v. St. Mary's UNDER 142||45-89||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
St. Mary's is ranked 15th in fewest points allowed per game. SE Louisiana is going to have problems denting the Gaels' defense. The under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times in St. Mary's home games.
|03-13-18||Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||63-84||Win||100||14 h 3 m||Show|
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd.
|03-11-18||Davidson v. Rhode Island UNDER 140||58-57||Win||100||5 h 4 m||Show|
These teams have a strong under bias when playing one another. The under has cashed in seven of the past nine meetings. I see that trend contiuning here.These teams have met twice this season and the combined total for both games was 127 1/2 points scored. Davidson is not the high scoring team of past seasons. The Wildcats are much more deliberate and slow paced. They figure to have problems making their long jumpers, too, as Rhode Island ranks first in the Atlantic 10 Conference in 3-point defense.
|03-10-18||San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico||Top||82-75||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents.
New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark.
The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here.
|03-09-18||Oregon v. USC -140||54-74||Win||100||12 h 0 m||Show|
I don't see Oregon having anything left in the tank. The Ducks are playing for the third day in a row. They won in overtime two days ago and were involved in a nail-biting two point victory against Utah last night.
|03-08-18||Oregon v. Utah +2.5||68-66||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
Utah beat Oregon at Oregon by 10 earlier this season. Now the Utes catch Oregon off an OT win against Washington State yesterday. So a big scheduling edg goes to Utah. The Utes had a first-round bye and are playing better than the Ducks. The Utes are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Utah has the necessary point guard in Justin Bibbins and big man David Collette can hurt Oregon inside. The Utes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games.
|03-08-18||LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 144.5||77-80||Loss||-110||12 h 33 m||Show|
These two teams just met this past Saturday and LSU held Mississippi State to 58 points while scoring 78. Now the teams meet again being very familiar with one another and in a much critical game as this is the second round of the SEC Tournament.
The Tigers shot 51.9 percent from the field and hit 47.8 percent of their 3-point shots. I don't see a repeat of that here. Mississippi State ranks among the top 60 teams in the nation in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
Note the neutral site, Scottrade Center in St. Louis, being the venue. That's a plus for the Under. This is a big arena where the St. Louis Blues play their home hockey games and is known as an Under arena for basketball teams. The SEC Tournament has never been held there until this year. So it's unfamilar to both teams.
|03-08-18||SMU v. Connecticut +2||80-73||Loss||-105||1 h 26 m||Show|
SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame.
|03-07-18||Notre Dame -125 v. Virginia Tech||71-65||Win||100||3 h 44 m||Show|
Look for Notre Dame to play much better than it did against Pittsburgh yesterday. The Irish are 4-0 ATS following a non-cover. The return of Bomzie Colson makes Notre Dame a much better team than this spread indicates.
|03-07-18||Louisville v. Florida State||82-74||Loss||-110||7 h 56 m||Show|
Louisville needs to play great defense to beat Florida State. I don't see that happening. This has been a down season for the Cardinals on the court and a terrible one for them off the court. IThe two teams split their two games this season. Louisville won the first meeting in Tallahassee, coming back from a 17-point deficit. Florida State won the remtch, 80-76, early last month. Since that time, the Seminoles have been getting major contributions from sophomore guard Trent Forrest and freshman center Ike Obiagu. Forrest is averaging 14.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists during the last five games. Those two weren't major factors in the previous games between the teams. They give Florida State an added edge. Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with the pressure to win this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes likely hanging in the balance, but their defense slipped during February. They enter this matchup in bad form, too, losers of four of their last five games. Louisville also has failed to cover in its past four neutral site games.
|03-05-18||BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's||85-72||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
St. Mary's had to exert a lot of energy to get past stubborn 10th-seeded Pepperdine in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gaels are going to need to play better to cover this number against BYU. This was the fifth time in their last six conference games that the Gaels have failed to cover the spread.
|03-04-18||Michigan v. Purdue OVER 137||75-66||Win||100||4 h 30 m||Show|
Michigan is playing its best basketball. The Wolverines have been extremely consistent scoring 72 or more points during each of their last eight games. During this span, Michigan is averaging 77.7 points per game.
|03-03-18||UC-Davis v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 132||Top||90-84||Loss||-115||18 h 10 m||Show|
There were just 117 points scored when these teams last met back in January with UC Davis winning, 64-53. The Aggies had their leading scorer and rebounder, Chima Moneke, for that game. He scored 20 points in that game and averages 18.4 points on the season. However, Moneke is suspended and won't play here. At stake in this matchup is the Big West Conference title. So I expect the intensity and defensive pressure to be as strong as it has been all season. UC Davis ranks 64th defensively. Irvine is even better defensively ranking 42nd and and fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Anteaters won't have to deal with Moneke either. Cal Irvine plays at a slow pace, too, which is an added plus for the Under. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Anteaters' last 22 games. This series has an Under history, too, with four of the last five going below the total. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the teams have met at Irvine.
|03-03-18||Nevada v. San Diego State -130||74-79||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
San Diego State is playing its best basketball. The Aztecs have won five in a row with the winning margin being nearly 16 points per game.
|03-03-18||Georgetown +19 v. Villanova||73-97||Loss||-105||6 h 44 m||Show|
Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching.Georgetown usually can be counted on to play hard. The Hoyas have been at their best as Big East underdogs covering seven of eight times in that role with three straight-up victories. The Hoyas also have covered in their last four road games.
|03-03-18||Kansas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State||64-82||Loss||-115||5 h 56 m||Show|
Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs.
|03-02-18||Rhode Island +2 v. Davidson||61-63||Push||0||3 h 51 m||Show|
I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games.
|03-02-18||Pennsylvania v. Yale +1||79-80||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season.
|02-28-18||Nevada -3 v. UNLV||Top||101-75||Win||100||21 h 1 m||Show|
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
|02-28-18||Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5||78-96||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri.
|02-28-18||Illinois v. Iowa||87-96||Loss||-106||8 h 17 m||Show|
Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons.
|02-27-18||Oklahoma v. Baylor -3||64-87||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss.
|02-26-18||Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 141.5||74-84||Loss||-105||11 h 6 m||Show|
The Under has won in 10 of Texas Techs last 13 road games. I see that trend continuing in this matchup, which shapes up to be a tight, intense defensive struggle.
|02-25-18||Penn State v. Nebraska -117||64-76||Win||100||4 h 9 m||Show|
Nebraska has been a monster money-maker this season. This has been especially so at home where the Cornhuskers have covered 10 of the past 11 times. All together, the Cornhuskers have covered an amazing 14 of their last 16 Big Ten games.
|02-24-18||Arizona v. Oregon -2||93-98||Win||100||19 h 48 m||Show|
The Ducks received a huge boost in confidence beating 25th-ranked Arizona State on Thurday. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Arizona, which is likely to be minus second-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA this week for testing positive for a banned substance. The Wildcats have a much bigger problem than this, though. There's the real possibility that their best player, Deandre Ayton, could be suspended along with head coach Sean Miller. The latest news is all about an FBI investigation into the Arizona program with Miller and Ayton at the center of the storm. This obviously is a huge distraction.
|02-24-18||Massachusetts v. George Mason OVER 147||76-78||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
The Over has cashed in 68 percent of George Mason's last 63 home games. I'm going to ride that string. This should be a loosely played game featuring lots of scoring. UMass's defense has gone downhill. That's reflected in the Over cashing during UMass's last eight games. The Minutemen have surrendered 82 or more points in each of their last eight games.
|02-23-18||Harvard +1.5 v. Princeton||72-66||Win||100||3 h 2 m||Show|
Harvard is on an 8-3-1 against the spread run. The Crimson just rolled past Princeton by 15 points two weeks ago. Now look at the line. So I definitely believe there is value on the Crimson.
|02-23-18||St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac -118||52-43||Loss||-118||9 h 24 m||Show|
The Bobcats of Quinnipiac have covered in seven of their last nine games. I like them to beat St. Peter's at home. The Bobcats have strong revenge motivation for an 84-58 road loss to St. Peter's back early last month when they weren't playing as well.
|02-21-18||San Diego State v. Air Force +8.5||Top||67-56||Loss||-105||20 h 53 m||Show|
In terms of straight-up record, Air Force is a bottom-three Mountain West Conference team. Point spread-wise, though, the Falcons are very strong. They have covered in nine of their last 12 league games and are 7-1 ATS at home this season. This coincides with San Diego State being a bad road team. The Aztecs are a middle-of-the-pack Mountain West team that is strong at home, weak on the road where they are 1-6 in conference play. This includes losses during their past five away matchups. San Diego State enters this matchup fat and happy after burying UNLV, 94-56, at home this past Saturday. That was the Aztecs' most lopsided victory against the Rebels in the 69-game history of the series. Now the Aztecs draw ninth place Air Force and last place San Jose State. So this doesn't shape up as a challenging week for them. The Falcons are going to be the more motivated team. They have revenge for an embarrassing 81-50 road loss to San Diego State from 18 days ago. Air Force only was able to shoot nine free throws in that game. Air Force upset New Mexico, 100-92, in its last home contest. Air Force has been on the road its past two games losing to UNLV and Boise State. Now the Falcons are back home. They are 16-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times against San Diego State at home, including winning straight-up last season, 60-57, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. They are 9-2 (82%) ATS the past 11 times versus San Diego State.
|02-20-18||Rutgers v. Ohio State UNDER 129||52-79||Loss||-110||15 h 1 m||Show|
Rutgers is a premier defensive team giving up the 12th fewest points in the country. But the Scarlet Knights are horrendous on offense and going against Ohio State's top-50 defense.
|02-20-18||Illinois +16 v. Michigan State||61-81||Loss||-106||9 h 26 m||Show|
Michigan State has covered just one of its last eight games. The Spartans could be distracted by Senior Night and still on Cloud Nine after rallying from 27 points down to beat Northwestern this past Saturday in the greatest comeback in Big Ten history. Illinois lost to Michigan State by 13 points in the first meeting despite the Spartans shooting a record 68.2 percent from the floor. The Illini have played better since that loss and should have their confidence up after snapping a four-game losing skid with a win against Nebraska on Saturday. Illinois is 5-1-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Michigan State, too.
|02-19-18||Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky -16.5||51-70||Win||100||14 h 18 m||Show|
Northern Kentucky is coming off a loss. I see the Norse being fired up to bury a very bad Youngstown State. The Penguins are giving up more than 87 points per game during their last seven games. Northern Kentucky has the potent offense to take advantage averaging nearly 77 points a game. The teams met earlier at Youngstown State and Northern Kentucky won by double-digits. Now the Norse are home off a loss. They are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
|02-19-18||Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 140||Top||77-74||Loss||-110||14 h 28 m||Show|
Minus star guard Bruce Brown Jr., Miiami has averaged only 52.5 points during its last two games. The Hurricanes are going to have to be patient and hit their shots if they want to pull an upset because Notre Dame has committed the fewest fouls in the country and fewest fouls per game. Notre Dame, though, has its own key injury as Bonzie Colson remains out. Matt Ferrell has been playing great, but can't be expected to score a career-high 37 points like he did in Notre Dame's last game, a victory against Boston College. The Irish play at a slow tempo, which is good for the Under, and Miami has the fourth-ranked defense in the ACC giving up 66 points per game. The Hurricanes also rank in the top-30 in the country in 3-point defense.
|02-18-18||Penn State v. Purdue -7.5||73-76||Loss||-105||12 h 5 m||Show|
Purdue is in stop-the-pain mode having lost consecutive close games to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconson. The Boilermakers are better than Penn State, highly motivated and at home where they have won 14 of 15 times. Penn State last won at Mackey Arena in 2006, a string of 10 consecutive road losses.The Boilermakers rank seventh in the nation in 3-point accuracy at 41.9 percent yet they have made only 32.1 percent of their beyond the arc shots in their last three games. A correction is due. Penn State is just average in 3-point defense. The Nittany Lions are playing well, but a letdown could be in store following their 79-56 burial of Ohio State at home on Thursday. Purdue has dominated this series winning the past five times.
|02-18-18||Nebraska -125 v. Illinois||66-72||Loss||-125||7 h 21 m||Show|
I have to keep riding Nebraska, which has covered a mind-boggling 16 of its last 17 games, including its last eight games. Usually when the line is at minus 2 or less, I like to protect myself with a money line play. That's the case here especially with Nebraska winning the first meeting between these two teams by just one point.Tim Miles has done a masterful job with the Cornhuskers, who have won seven in a row and eight of their last nine. Illinois, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Illini has allowed foes to shoot 55.5 percent from the floor during the last three games. The Illini haven't been scoring either averaging only 64 points during their last four games. Nebraska is averaging 80 points in its last five games.
|02-17-18||Colorado v. Washington UNDER 142||59-82||Win||100||17 h 1 m||Show|
Long-time Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins has brought a tricky zone defense to Washington. So it's not a fluke the defensive-minded Huskies have gone Under the total in 10 of their last 12 games.
|02-17-18||Loyola Marymount +10.5 v. San Francisco||63-72||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
This mainly is a fade on San Francisco. The Dons are coming off a huge upset home victory against St. Mary's two days ago. It's going to be hard for the Dons to get up for this matchup in such a short time span. The Dons are 2-7 ATS following a victory.
|02-15-18||Utah v. Washington UNDER 142||70-58||Win||100||15 h 9 m||Show|
Not only is Mike Hopkins a great coach, but he's a great Under the total coach, too, as Washington has gone below the total in nine of its last 11 games. That's because the Huskies play a zone defense similar to what Syracuse runs and what Hopkins learned when he coached at Syracuse before coming to Washington.
|02-15-18||Ohio State +1 v. Penn State||56-79||Loss||-106||8 h 40 m||Show|
I like Ohio State in this revenge spot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions dealt Ohio State its only Big Ten loss in the first meeting with a buzzer-beating basket. Penn State missed only three of 14 shots from beyond the arch in that victory against the Buckeyes. I don't expect the Nittany Lions to shoot like that again.
|02-15-18||NC-Greensboro v. The Citadel +10.5||Top||82-66||Loss||-106||13 h 37 m||Show|
The Citadel has covered seven of its last nine games. The Bulldogs have posted upsets of Wofford and Furman and lost to East Tennessee State, the first place team in the Southern Conference, by just two points as a 15-point 'dog during their last three home games. Now The Citadel is another big home 'dog. This time to UNC Greensboro, which is in a dangerous situational spot. The Spartans just beat East Tennessee State at home on Monday in a huge game and has a more challenging road game against Mercer on Saturday. The Spartans have failed to cover in their last four games against the Bulldogs.
|02-14-18||Kentucky +9.5 v. Auburn||66-76||Loss||-105||9 h 55 m||Show|
The last time Kentucky was this big of an underdog the Wildcats beat West Virginia, 83-76, as a 10-1/2 point road 'dog on Jan. 27. The Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to upset Auburn straight-up here, too. Kentucky holds a big height advantage and shouldn't be lacking for motivation with this lack of respect betting line. The Wildcats have never dropped four in a row under John Calipari.
|02-14-18||South Florida v. UCF OVER 123.5||57-72||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
Much has changed for Central Florida with Tacko Fall out. Since he's been injured the Over has cashed in five of the Knights' last six games. Fall may have been the premier defensive player in college basketball. So when I see a low total like this, I'm looking to go Over.
|02-13-18||LSU v. Alabama UNDER 148||65-80||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
Alabama is a great Under team at home going below the total in 73 percent of its last 60 home contests. The Crimson Tide are strong defensively again this season giving up 68.3 points a game, which ranks 74th in the nation. Alabama ranks No. 1 in the SEC, too, in points per possession defensively. LSU was held to 66 points at home by Alabama in the first meeting. The Tigers are averaging just 65 points during their last three road games.
|02-13-18||LSU +7.5 v. Alabama||65-80||Loss||-105||13 h 47 m||Show|
LSU is coming on winning two of its last three, including an impressive 82-66 victory against Mississippi this past Saturday.
|02-13-18||Maryland v. Nebraska -112||66-70||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
Nebraska doesn't receive any respect in the marketplace or from the oddsmaker. All the Cornhuskers do is cover spreads, though. The Cornhuskers are a mind-boggling 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games.