|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-18-19||Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 225.5||105-111||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's marquee matchup between the Spurs and Warriors. Golden State is coming off one of it's best defensive performances of the season, as they held Russell Westbrook, Paul George and the OKC Thunder to just 88 points on 32.3% shooting in Saturday's 22-point blowout win. The game before they limited James Harden and the Rockets to 104 points. Spurs have won 8 straight and during this run have been locking opponents down. San Antonio has allowed more than 105 in just one game during this hot stretch and we can bank on a big effort here. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|03-08-19||Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 234.5||105-122||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 234.5)
I wanted to take the Warriors here off that embarrassing loss to the Celtics, but the spread is just a little too high for my liking. Good news is I like the OVER just as much, if not more, as these are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Both of which are not playing all that great defensively as they try to adjust to playing with a new star. For Golden State it's DeMarcus Cousins and for Denver it's Isaiah Thomas. Last time these two teams played the Warriors won 142-111 as they combined for 253. I don't know if they get there, but they easily hit 235. Give me the OVER 234.5!
|02-24-19||Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 233.5||96-123||Loss||-110||6 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 233.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 233.5 in Sunday's Western Conference showdown between Denver and Los Angeles. Nuggets are finally healthy and simply have a plethora of playmakers at their disposal. I just think they are going to be extremely tough to contain and we saw that in their first game back from the break. Denver shot a miserable 40.8% from the field and yet still put up 114 points. Clippers will have no answer and really have no choice but to try to outshoot the Nuggets, which should have this thing flying past the number. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|02-22-19||Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 213.5||112-106||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 213.5)
I'll take my chances with the Clippers and Grizzlies going OVER the total of 213.5. I just think there's some value here on both sides. I think the perception is that LAC is not going to be as potent offensively after trading away one of their top scorers in Tobias Harris, but they made some sneaky good additions in other trades and put up 120+ in each of their final 3 before the break.
As for the Grizzlies, it's the opposite. This team has the perception of being this defensive juggernaut. However, that was before they traded away the anchor in the middle in Marc Gasol. Memphis is in full on rebuilding mode and just aren't going to bring that energy and effort on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch. Give me the OVER 213.5!
|02-21-19||Blazers v. Nets OVER 229||113-99||Loss||-113||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 229)
I'll take my chances here with the Blazers and Nets combining for at least 230 points. Brooklyn is a team that likes to get up and down the floor and are averaging a healthy 114.9 ppg at home this season. Portland can run and gun as well and giving up 113.3 ppg on the road.
More than anything, I think the pace will be up there in this game with both teams well rested out of the All-Star break. Last year the OVER was 9-5 in the first game back from the break and the few that went UNDER barely stayed under the mark. Last time these two played in Brooklyn they combined for 252.
It's also worth noting the Blazers have recently added Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter and we almost always see teams struggle defensively when new pieces are added. Give me the OVER 229!
|02-21-19||Suns v. Cavs OVER 218||Top||98-111||Loss||-109||9 h 16 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218)
I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side.
Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218!
|02-15-19||Buffalo v. Toledo OVER 157.5||Top||88-82||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 157.5)
I'll take my chances here with Buffalo and Toledo going OVER the mark set by the books. These two teams played at Buffalo back in early January and combined for 190 points in a 110-80 win for the Bulls. I just don't see a change in venue being enough for the Rockets to slow down this high-powered Buffalo offense, which is averaging 85.2 ppg and shooting 47% from the field in conference play. However, I could see Toledo keeping pace at home, as the Rockets are scoring 78.7 ppg at home. OVER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Bulls last 9 road games in the month of February. Give me the OVER 157.5!
|02-13-19||Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5||61-62||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 137.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 137.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten clash between Minnesota and Nebraska. Gophers have lost 3 straight and the Cornhuskers have dropped 7 in a row, so both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. I think that leads to a big defensive effort and a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting.
While these two combined for 163 points back in early December, a lot has changed since that game. Nebraska has lost one of their best players in Isaac Copeland and their offense has simply been non-existent of late. Cornhuskers are averaging 56.4 ppg on a mere 32% shooting over their last 5.
They have no choice but to rely on their defense to win and they are only giving up 56.8 ppg at home. Minnesota is also a completely different offensive team on the road, as they average 72.6 ppg on the season, yet have only put up 63.4 ppg on 39% shooting away from home. Give me the UNDER 137.5!
|02-12-19||Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 208.5||108-107||Loss||-109||10 h 16 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208.5)
*I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208.5 in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Grizzlies. Memphis just held Anthony Davis and the Pelicans to 90 points on 39.5% shooting. This team is starting to find its rhythm defensively again and they really need it with how their offense is struggling to get easy looks. Memphis hasn't shot better than 44% from the field in 6 straight games. Spurs defense has been the culprit in their 4-game losing streak. I think we see a big effort on that side following a much-needed 2-day break. Give me the UNDER 208.5!
|02-12-19||Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 132||67-59||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 132)
I'll take my chances here with Michigan State and Wisconsin going UNDER the total of 132. These are two really good defensive teams and it's no secret that the Badgers love to slow things way down and really grind out a win. The Spartans had lost 3 straight before a dominant 79-55 win at home over Minnesota, where they held the Gophers to just 37% shooting. Tom Izzo really pushed his players after the 3-game losing streak and I think we see that same effort we saw against Minnesota in this one. As for the Badgers, they absolutely have to have this one if they want a shot at a Big Ten title. Give me the UNDER 132!
|02-11-19||Oklahoma v. Baylor UNDER 138||53-59||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 clash between Oklahoma and Baylor. The Bears have seen the OVER cash in each of their last 3, but did manage just 63 points last time out against K-State and are dealing with some major injuries. They already lost Tristan Clark to a season-ending injury and may be without their next best player in Makai Mason, as well as King McClure. Both were held out of Saturday's game, which makes unlikely they will play just a couple days later. Baylor is going to have focus more on the defensive side of the ball. As for Oklahoma, they have really been struggling offensively and are coming off a game against Texas Tech where they managed just 54 points. I think both teams will struggle to reach 65. Give me the UNDER 138!
|02-11-19||Bucks v. Bulls OVER 227||Top||112-99||Loss||-110||8 h 9 m||Show|
50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227!
|02-10-19||Lakers v. 76ers OVER 234||Top||120-143||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234)
I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER!
|02-09-19||Hornets v. Hawks OVER 228.5||129-120||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 228.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's NBA clash between the Hawks and Hornets. No team plays at a faster pace in the NBA than Atlanta and only the Knicks, Suns and Cavs are ranked lower in defensive efficiency than the Hawks. That's a pretty good combo for high-scoring games. Charlotte only managed 93 last time out at Dallas, but had scored 115+ in their previous 2 and will be facing a Hawks defense that has allowed 7 straight opponents to reach at least 112 points. Atlanta has also scored 112 or more in 7 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|02-02-19||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 222.5||125-98||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 222.5)
I'll take my chances with the Jazz and Rockets combining for at least 223 points. Houston doesn't figure to have Chris Paul, who is one of the better defenders. It's just going to be run and gun and hope Harden puts up 50 because the defensive effort won't be there on no rest. Utah's defense has been shaky of late and the Jazz are also playing on no rest. I think both teams could score 125 points and all we really need is for one of the two to get there to secure a win. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|02-01-19||Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 131||61-69||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 131)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 131 in Friday's Big Ten action between Maryland and Wisconsin. These two teams already played once this season in a defensive battle, as the Terps squeaked out a 64-60 win at home back on Jan 14th. Both teams shot under 39% from the field. I don't see any reason to expect anything different. Maryland is allowing 62.2 ppg on the road and will be motivated to get a big signature win after losing 2 of their last 3. Wisconsin only gives up 61.7 ppg at home and will be out for revenge. Give me the UNDER 131!
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz OVER 226.5||112-128||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 226.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 on the total for the Hawks/Jazz. I usually don't like playing the OVER in games involving Utah, but I like the spot we are in. Atlanta's the ideal over team. The Hawks play at the fastest tempo in the league and are also one of the worst defensive teams.
Utah's defense has been slipping of late and while some might expect a big effort here after giving up 132 at Portland last time out, I just don't see the Jazz laying it all on the line against a bad team like the Hawks, especially with James Harden and the Rockets coming to town tomorrow.
OVER is 7-2 in Utah's last 9 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|01-24-19||Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 234||116-122||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 234)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in this one. I just think the number here has been set way too high. Both teams have to be battling fatigue, as each will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. For New Orleans they are playing on no rest, as they hosted Detroit last night. Pelicans are also without their best player in Anthony Davis. On top of that, both E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic were banged up against the Pistons and are questionable to play. I think these two will be lucky to hit 220. Give me the UNDER 234!
|01-20-19||Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 219.5||95-120||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 219.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 219.5 in this one. Both Charlotte and Indiana will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set, as the Hornets hosted the Suns on Saturday while the Pacers hosted the Mavs. Both teams won rather easily, so I'm expecting a little more edge defensive than you would typically see in a game with both teams on no rest. UNDER is 35-17 in the Pacers last 52 home games 13-4-1 in their last 18 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. UNDER is also 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Indiana. Give me the UNDER 219.5!
|01-17-19||76ers v. Pacers UNDER 225||120-96||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Eastern Conference showdown between the 76ers and Pacers. Both teams come in playing well, as the Pacers are 9-2 in their last 11, while Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 and off a 149-107 blowout win against Minnesota. I just think the defensive effort is going to be there for both teams and when these two want to, they can be elite defensive teams. Clearly there's offensive talent on both sides, but with the total where it is it's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 225!
|01-17-19||Knicks v. Wizards OVER 226.5||100-101||Loss||-116||5 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 226.5)
First off, for those that don't know, this game is being played in London. That right there has me thinking there will be a lack of defense played. That's even more so when you factor the caliber a teams we have here with the Knicks and Wizards. Washington has been playing decent, surprisingly since John Wall went down. I just think the ball is moving a little more and it's resulted in the ball going in the hoop more frequently. Wizards have scored at least 109 in 8 straight and 121 ppg over their last 7. Knicks are giving up 117 ppg on the road, so 120+ from Washington should be easy. All we need is for New York to hit around 110-115 for this to fly over and the Wizards are giving up 118.7 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|01-16-19||Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224.5||129-109||Loss||-110||12 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 224.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in tonight's NBA action between the Jazz and Clippers. With their top 3 point guards all injured, Utah has really had to rely on their defense of late and they come in having held each of their last 4 opponents to 41.2% or worse from the field.
While they have scored 100+ in 4 straight, they have not shot the ball well at all of late. The Jazz are shooting 42.4% from the field in their last 5. Clippers have held their last 5 opponents to 43.2% shooting and I think we get a big effort on that side from LA, as they come in having lost 3 straight and really can't afford to lose here with their upcoming schedule not all that favorable. Give me the UNDER 224.5!
|01-14-19||Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 207.5||94-112||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 207.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. The Rockets are a great offensive team, but are playing short-handed right now and in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights. I just don't see them playing with the same pace offensively and tired legs is bad news for a team that loves to shoot 3-pointers like the Rockets. Add in Memphis desperately needing a win and the Grizzlies being a team that wants to grind games out with a methodical pace and stingy defense. All adds up to a low scoring game. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|01-10-19||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 224||Top||147-154||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224!
|01-08-19||Kings v. Suns OVER 230.5||111-115||Loss||-102||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 230.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in tonight's NBA action that has the Kings and Suns going head-to-head. These two teams are ideal for a high-scoring game. Sacramento plays at the second fastest pace in the NBA, so possessions for both teams will be up there. The even bigger key is the lack of defense these two teams play. Both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency. Kings give up 117.9 ppg on the road and the Suns allow 112.9 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 230.5!
|01-05-19||Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 147||86-77||Loss||-110||2 h 15 m||Show|
40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 147)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Saturday's huge Big Ten clash between No. 14 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan State. I actually think the line is pretty spot on, but I see a ton of value with the UNDER. These are two really good defensive teams. Michigan State is holding opponents nearly 9 points below their season average and Ohio State is holding opponents nearly 14 points under their average. I just think the fact that both teams come in off high-scoring games is playing into this inflated total. UNDER is 13-4 in the Buckeyes last 17 after scoring 80 or more and 9-2 in the Spartans last 11 after 2 straight blowout wins by 20+ points. Give me the UNDER 147!
|01-02-19||Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 138||72-74||Loss||-109||7 h 36 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten clash between Nebraska and Maryland. Both of these teams are playing outstanding defense. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 57.8 ppg and holding teams to 37.4% from the field. The Terps are only giving up 65.2 ppg, while holding opponents to 40.3% shooting. Both teams went 1-1 in their 2 early conference games and both are going to be highly motivated to make sure they get to 2-1 and not 1-2. UNDER is 8-1 in Nebraska's last 9 with a line of +3 to -3 and 12-3 in Maryland's last 15 conference games. Give me the UNDER 138!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-27-18||Lakers v. Kings OVER 231||116-117||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Kings hosting the Lakers. I'm expecting zero defense to be played here. The Lakers are coming off that huge win on the road over the Warriors Christmas Day. They are primed for a letdown off that huge win, especially given they won't have LeBron or Rondo for this contest. Kings love to push the pace and I the young Lakers will gladly play that style here and both teams should eclipse 120. Bet the OVER 231!
|12-25-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 222.5||Top||114-121||Loss||-110||7 h 60 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|12-25-18||Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 221.5||109-113||Loss||-109||4 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 221.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. I see a ton of value here in this particular matchup. OKC is one of those teams that can be an elite defensive team when they want to and they know they will have to bring it on the road against James Harden and the Rockets. Key here is Houston is without Chris Paul and they just aren't the same offensive team without him on the floor. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-14-18||Heat v. Grizzlies UNDER 199||100-97||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 199)
It shouldn't take a whole lot of explanation to why I like the UNDER in a game involving the Grizzlies. While everyone else in the NBA is trying to spread the floor, push the pace and jack up a bunch of 3's, Memphis is grinding games out with a methodical approach that has an old school feel to it. Miami's still without starting point guard Dragic and last time out scored just 88 at Utah. Both teams rank in the bottom 7 in offensive efficiency and Top 11 in defensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 199!
|12-12-18||Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 218.5||Top||97-113||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
50* NBA CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 218.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with these two Central Division rivals going UNDER the mark set by the books. The UNDER has cashed in 7 straight games involving the Pacers and is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 as well. A big reason for that is both teams are getting it done on the defensive end. Milwaukee is allowing just 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and Indiana is only giving up 97.8 ppg. Both teams are holding opponents under 43% shooting in their last 5. Bucks won by 17 at home way back on Oct. 19, but the UNDER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 218.5!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-06-18||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 216||Top||91-118||Loss||-105||12 h 26 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 216)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216 in tonight's NBA action that has the Rockets visiting the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game where they set a new franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers and shot 61% from the field on their way to putting up a 139 points against the Spurs. Houston's defense has been slipping of late, but the offense has also picked up and I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two to hit at least 220. OVER is 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a win by 15 or more and 8-1 in their 9 home games this season. Give me the OVER 216!
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-23-18||Heat v. Bulls UNDER 213.5||103-96||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (UNDER 213.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Heat visiting the Bulls. This doesn't figure to be a very entertaining game to watch, as we have two offenses that are struggling to score without some key guys on the floor. Miami's offense has gone ice-cold without starting point guard Goran Dragic and even with him they were below-average. Chicago scored 124 on 56.8% shooting last time out, but that was against an awful Suns team. Prior to that the Bulls put up 83 on their home floor against the Raptors and had scored fewer than 100 in 5 of their previous 6. UNDER 8-3 in Bulls last 14 overall and 3-0 in Miami's last 3. BET THE UNDER 213.5!
|11-22-18||Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152||73-57||Win||100||14 h 40 m||Show|
40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 152)
I just don't think these two teams are going to have enough gas left in the tank to shoot well from the field and play at the tempo needed to eclipse the total here. Auburn played an OT game against Xavier to open the Maui Invitational. Their two studs, Bryce Brown and Jared Harper both played 43 minutes. They then had to lay it all on the line against the talk of college basketball in No. 1 Duke, with Harper and Brown each playing 38 minutes. Arizona had a hard fought win against ISU and then played in a track-meet and lost to Gonzaga 91-74. If both teams were playing on 2-3 days rest I would get this total. Give me the UNDER 152!
|11-16-18||The Citadel v. Texas OVER 164.5||69-97||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 164.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER in this non-conference clash. The Citadel are averaging 42 3-point attempts per game and have hit 40.5% of them. They played a game against Clemson earlier that saw 180 points and I think that's where we are headed here. I certainly think they get to 170. Texas is going to flirt with the century mark in this one and after a couple of tough nights offensively, I think they will be excited for the opportunity. Sure a game against UNC is on deck, but that's not until next week. Note that Clemson score 100 on the Citadel and allowed the Bulldogs to score 80. The Tigers won their next two games 71-51 and 74-59. I think those two games show you just how different a pace and style The Citadel play with. Give me the OVER 164.5!
|11-15-18||Oregon v. Iowa OVER 149||69-77||Loss||-105||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 149)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER here. Iowa pretty much brought back their entire nucleus from last year and this was a team that didn't shy away from high scoring games. Iowa was 3rd in the Big 10 and 48th nationally at 79.7 ppg. They were also dead last in the Big 10 and 317th nationally, giving up 78.7 ppg. They have put up 85 ppg over their first 2 and will be playing an Oregon team that has scored 80+ in each of their first 2. Get ready for a track meet in New York on the hardwood. Give me the OVER 149!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-14-18||Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 138||73-46||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's rematch of last year's championship game. These two only combined for 141 points in the title game last year and both suffered some pretty massive losses on the offensive side. Villanova parted ways with Brunson (18.9 ppg), Bridges (17.7 ppg), DiVincenzo (13.4 ppg) and Spellman (10.9 ppg), while Michigan lost Wagner (14.6 ppg), Abdur-Rahkman (12.9 ppg and Robinson (9.2 ppg). Don't get me wrong both teams reloaded and will be a force this season, but I expect defense to be the deciding factor in this one. Give me the UNDER 138!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-06-18||Wizards v. Mavs OVER 225.5||100-119||Loss||-105||11 h 50 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 225.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Mavericks hosting the Wizards. Washington comes in off a much-needed 108-95 win over the Knicks and based on the score it looks like the defense played great, but I just feel it was more of New York's lack of offense and a bad night shooting. Wizards are still giving up 120.7 ppg on the season, including a ridiculous 125.4 ppg on the road. Dallas is a very similar team to Washington. They are a capable offensive team at 110.8 ppg (116.2 ppg at home) and not very good on defense. Mavs are allowing 116.8 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 50% from the field. Give me the OVER 225.5!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-29-18||Hawks v. 76ers OVER 230||92-113||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 230)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's NBA action between the 76ers and Hawks. Atlanta leads the NBA early on in pace of play and Philadelphia isn't too far behind, as they have the 8th fastest pace of play. I think the 76ers will enjoy the up-tempo game and I don't see them being all that interested in locking down defensively against an Atlanta team that simply isn't very good, especially with a big road game at Toronto on deck tomorrow. OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Hawks 3 road games and the averaging score in those games has been 241.7. All we need is for them to get to 231. Give me the OVER 230!
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44||23-42||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.
I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.
On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.
The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-24-18||Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 219||Top||92-97||Loss||-103||10 h 13 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219!
|10-24-18||Mavs v. Hawks OVER 233.5||104-111||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 233.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Mavs and Hawks eclipsing this high total of 233.5. These two teams are both awful defensively. Dallas comes in giving up 122 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 122.7 ppg. Atlanta has also made a point of trying to play as fast as they can. They are doing a good job of it, as they lead the league in pace of play. Dallas will have no problem playing up-tempo against this team, as they are well equipped to outscore them. Look for this one to get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|10-23-18||Kings v. Nuggets OVER 227.5||Top||112-126||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5!
|10-22-18||Bulls v. Mavs OVER 229||109-115||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 229)
Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Both these teams fall into that category. The average score in Bulls' games this season is 239 points and for Dallas it's 148.5. Chicago is giving up 122.5 ppg and Mavs are allowing 128.5 ppg. Give me the OVER 229!
|10-22-18||Pacers v. Wolves OVER 226||91-101||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226)
Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Minnesota is definitely one of them. The average score in Timberwolves' games this season is 250 points, as they are averaging and giving up 125 ppg. Indiana comes in averaging 115 ppg and are giving up 118 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 226!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-19-18||Kings v. Pelicans OVER 232||129-149||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 232)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232 in Friday's NBA showdown between the Kings and Pelicans. Sacramento is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but I like the offensive talent they got and with Fox at the point they are going to play up-tempo. I believe that's going to lead to an offensive onslaught tonight. The Pelicans were fantastic offensively in their opener at Houston and if they can do that to the Rockets, I see no reason not to expect more of the same here in their home opener. New Orleans might just be the best team in the west no one is talking about, but that won't last for long. I think they could hit 130 points again tonight, but even if they hit just 120, that should be enough to eclipse this mark. Give me the OVER 232!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-17-18||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 226||107-98||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 226)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 226 in tonight's Western Conference clash between the Clippers and Nuggets. This is a massive total and I just don't see them getting to it. Los Angeles is a team that everyone is writing off now that their trio of Griffin Paul and Jordan are all gone. They still have a great head coach in Doc Rivers and are going to play hard. They also have the best defensive backcourt in the league with Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley. For Los Angeles to be competitive early, they are going to have to go all out defensively, as the offense figures to struggle to get going with no go-to guy. That duo of Beverly and Bradley will really make things tough on the Nuggets, as they will lock down Denver's dynamic young backcourt of Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. Give me the UNDER 226!
|10-17-18||Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219||113-112||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 219)
I'll take my chances here with the Bucks and Hornets going OVER the mark of 219. I've really liked what I seen from the Hornets offense in the preseason. They really have put an emphasis on the 3-point shot. They hit 19 of them in their preseason finale against the Mavs and I expect a much more free-flowing offense without Dwight Howard on the roster. This is also one of the more deeper teams in the league and should easily eclipse the 108.2 ppg they averaged last year. Milwaukee is another team that I think is going to take a big step forward offensively, as I loved the hire of Mike Budenholzer, who did some great things with the Hawks. Bucks are going to space things out a lot more and they too figure to shoot a lot more 3-pointers. We saw them connect on 25 from deep in their preseason finale against the Timberwolves with all 5 starters making at least 2. Give me the OVER 219!
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU UNDER 51||16-36||Loss||-112||23 h 59 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 51)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 51 in Saturday's huge SEC cross-division matchup that has No. 2 Georgia visiting No. 13 LSU. I think the only reason this total is as high as it is, is because the Bulldogs come in averaging 42.8 ppg and have scored at least 38 in every game they have played.
The thing that people don't take into account is the level of defenses that they have played. The best defense they have played is South Carolina, who doesn't rank in the Top 50 in total defense and is 98th vs the run (194 ypg).
This LSU defense is the real deal. They completely shutdown both Miami and Auburn and while they gave up 27 to Florida last week, 7 of those were a result of interception that was returned for a TD by the Gators defense. That was also on the road.
Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when LSU is playing well and there's a big time opponent coming to town. I expect them to give this Georgia offense fits and both teams here figure to have a hard time reaching 24 points. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5||34-13||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye.
Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one.
As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way.
I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER.
Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 61||Top||17-14||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit.
Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.
I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.
We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.
TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.
It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61!
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|09-29-18||South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 52||10-24||Win||100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 52)
I'll take my chances with this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. This just hasn't been a high-scoring series of late. The most these two teams have combined for over the last 3 seasons is 48 points and the last two matchups have seen a combined 27 and 36 points. Given how strong these two teams are on that side of the ball and how big this game is for both teams, I just don't see a shootout taking place.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding to start the year. They come in ranked 11th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279 yards/game. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/play and rank inside the Top 50 agains both the run (21st) and pass (31st). I just don't think people realize how good that Mississippi State offense is and how impressive it was for the Wildcats to hold them to just 201 total yards.
South Carolina's defense isn't too far behind. The Gamecocks are 33rd in the country, giving up just 332 yards/game. That's with one of their games coming against an elite Georgia offense. They held Coastal Carolina to just 238 total yards and last week limited the Commodores to just 284 on the road.
The other key thing with the defenses is both are great against the run and I feel both of these offenses need to be able to run the football to have success. Kentucky is allowing just 106 rushing yards/game and giving up a mere 3.6 yards/carry against teams that average 5.2. South Carolina is allowing 3.9 yards/carry vs teams averaging 5.5.
The Wildcats are 11th in the country in rushing (269 ypg) and just 117th in passing (158.3 ypg), so it's going to be tough sledding for them in this one. The Gamecocks got a good quarterback in Jake Bentley, but when Georgia limited them to a mere 54 yards rushing, they only managed 17 points.
UNDER is 5-0 in South Carolina's last 5 road games vs a team with a winning road record and 15-5 in their last 20 conference games overall. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Wildcats last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5||30-27||Win||100||56 h 60 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores.
Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense.
Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks.
What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one.
Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|09-22-18||Texas A&M v. Alabama OVER 60.5||23-45||Win||100||23 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC clash between Alabama and Texas A&M. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s.
I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one.
I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs.
All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number.
The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5||Top||17-21||Loss||-107||21 h 33 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.
While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.
The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.
You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.
We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5!
|09-16-18||Chiefs v. Steelers OVER 53||42-37||Win||100||27 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 53)
My strongest play in Week 1 was the Chiefs/Chargers OVER 48. I had a really good feeling this Kansas City offense was going to put up points and at the same time would allow their fair share on the defensive side of the ball. That’s exactly what happened, as the two teams combined for 66 points and more than 900 yards of offense.
I know this is a massive total, especially compared to most of the other games on the board for Week 2, but I think these two will easily eclipse this mark.
The Chiefs put up 38 points in Week 1 and did so without much help from two of their top targets in Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. That just tells you the talent this team has at the skill positions and I love that Mahomes isn’t just forcing it to his star players.
The Steelers defense held the Browns to just 21 points, but that was in less than ideal conditions (heavy wind and rain). This was not the same caliber a defense last year after they lost Ryan Shazier and one I think will struggle in 2018. The big thing that stands out to me is they allowed 177 rushing yards to the Browns. Look for KC to have a balanced attack in this one.
As for the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Chiefs defense. I look for Big Ben and company to feast on this KC defense. The Chiefs allowed 541 yards to the Chargers in Week 1 and were very fortunate LA only ended up with 28 points. With Eric Berry out again and all those new faces in the secondary, this unit is going to struggle early. Not to mention Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is a whole different beats at home compared to on the road.
OVER is also 9-3 in the Chiefs last 12 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games played early on in the month of September. Give me the OVER 53.
|09-15-18||Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 70||Top||62-7||Loss||-115||25 h 11 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.
This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.
There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.
I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.
OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.
|09-14-18||Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60||22-59||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRIDAY OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 60)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER. One of the big reasons that the Tigers offense struggled against Navy last week is the game was play in sloppy conditions with a steady rain making it less than ideal for Memphis' high-powered passing attack. Those conditions certainly played a part in the Tigers turning it over 4 times.
Memphis' offense has to feel like they gave that game away and I look for them to come out looking to lay it on the Panthers. I just don't see Georgia State being able to do anything to stop them. The Panthers were torched by NC State's Ryan Finley this past Saturday, as Finley went 31 of 38 for 370 yards. They also let Kennesaw State's Chandler Burks average 10.6 yards/attempt in their near loss to the Owls at home in Week 1.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Memphis put up 50+ points, which is why I would have to side with them on the spread. However, I do think Georgia State is going to be able to put some points on the board. The Panthers appear to have found something in JUCO quarterback transfer Dan Ellington, who has completed 63% of his attempts for 381 yards with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio.
I know the Memphis defense has looked great the first two games, but one was against a bad Mercer team and the other was against the one-dimensional Navy option offense. Playing on short rest and off that emotional loss, I think the defense could come out flat. I think if we can get a mere 20-points from Georgia State, this one will easily eclipse the mark.
OVER is 7-1 in the Tigers' last 8 non-conference games, 20-8 in their last 28 games at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Sun Belt. Give me the OVER!
|09-09-18||Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48||Top||38-28||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48)
I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48!
|09-07-18||Angels v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||5-2||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
50* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the White Sox and Angles going UNDER the 8.5 total set here by the books. The Angels will have Felix Pena on the mound and he's got a 2.14 ERA in 6 road starts. White Sox will counter with their future ace in Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.89 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 15 starts overall and a 2.23 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in 7 starts at home. Add in less than ideal conditions for scoring with winds blowing in from left at close to 15 mph and I don't see either offense doing much in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-31-18||Syracuse v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5||Top||55-42||Win||100||7 h 60 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5)
Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.
I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.
Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.
The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.
OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5!
|08-30-18||Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 52.5||31-27||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 52.5)
This might seem like a high total given the two teams only combined for 36 points in last year’s meeting at Northwestern, which the Wildcats won 23-13. However, that final was a bit misleading, as Purdue only scored 13 points, despite racking up 438 total yards. Northwestern had 14 points in the 1st quarter, but had to settle for 3 field goals the rest of the way. You also have to factor in that game was played in November, when scoring is a lot tougher given the cold conditions.
I also think Purdue games are going to be a lot more high-scoring this year. While the offense was better in Brohm’s first season, it didn’t improve as much as people expected given Brohm’s offensive background. A lot of that had to do with the players learning a new system and only 5 starters returning from 2016. Purdue was also able to rely on their defense to win games, so they didn’t have to force things offensively.
That’s not going to be the case this year. The Boilermakers figure to take a big step back defensively after losing 9 of their top 12 tacklers. In order for them to win games, they are going to have to put up points and with the talent they have coming back (9 starters) they should average close to 30 ppg.
While we are still waiting for the official word on whether Thorson will be available to start for Northwestern, all signs point to him being ready to play, as he’s been practicing fully for a couple weeks now. With Thorson in the lineup, the Wildcats should be able to put up a big number here against this inexperienced Purdue defense.
OVER is 10-1 in Purdue’s last 11 home games as a favorite of 3-points or less and 11-3 in Northwestern’s last 14 Big Ten conference road games. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|08-27-18||White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9||Top||6-2||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 9 in Monday's action that has the Yankees hosting the White Sox. The public loves to back the OVER in Yankee games, especially at home, but I just don't see either offense being able to get much going in this one. Chicago will send out Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.05 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now owns a 2.71 ERA in 13 starts overall. Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who has allowed just 3 runs in his last 2 starts and owns a 2.23 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 5 career starts against the White Sox. Take the UNDER!
|08-25-18||Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 46.5||29-7||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* NCAAF "WEEK ZERO" TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 46.5)
New Mexico State has 9 starters back from a defense that only gave up 29.7 ppg and 401 ypg last year. It continued a remarkable turnaround under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. In his first year on the job (2016) he took over a defense that had just allowed 45 ppg and 522 ypg the previous year to only giving up 38.8 ppg and 497 ypg. With all the talent coming back, there’s no reason to think the numbers won’t continue to improve in 2018.
As for Wyoming, their defense carried them in 2017. The Cowboys went from giving up 34.1 ppg in 2016 to only allowing 17.5 ppg in 2017. Not only do they have 8 starters back on this side of the ball, but are loaded with juniors and seniors, making them one of the more experienced defenses in the country.
You also have to factor in the transition that both teams are going through at quarterback. Everyone knows the kind of talent Allen was. As for the Aggies, they got their own hole to fill at quarterback with the departure of Tyler Rogers. He was a difference maker for that offense in 2017. He completed 62% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards with a solid 27-18 TD-INT ratio. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns. Not only does New Mexico State lose Rogers, but they also lose their top wide out and dynamic running back.
Another factor here is coaching. I have a ton of respect for both Martin and Bohl. I’m confident both of these teams will be well prepared for this contest and wouldn’t be shocked if both sides failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|08-25-18||Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8||Top||1-3||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's NL East clash between the Braves and Marlins. These two teams combined for just 5 run in Atlanta's 5-0 win on Thursday and only 1 in Miami's 1-0 win on Friday. I look for both offenses to stay ice cold in this one. The Braves will turn to Animal Sanchez, who is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 9 road starts. The Marlins will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who has a 2.08 ERA and 0.807 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.05 ERA in 10 starts overall at home this season. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-25-18||Falcons v. Jaguars OVER 38.5||6-17||Loss||-105||7 h 3 m||Show|
40* NFLX OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 38.5)
|08-24-18||Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5||Top||6-7||Loss||-100||8 h 21 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's NL Central clash between the Pirates and Brewers. This total is simply too high for the starting pitching matchup. Pittsburgh will send out Joe Musgrave, who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 5 road starts and comes in with a solid 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee will send out Wade Miley, who has a strong 2.18 ERA in 9 starts overall in 2018 and a 2.38 ERA in 3 starts at home. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-23-18||Padres v. Rockies UNDER 10||Top||3-4||Win||100||4 h 20 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 10)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 10 in Thursday's NL West clash between the Padres and Rockies. You have to pick your spots with taking the UNDER at Coors Field, but I feel we have a great number and pitching matchup to get us the win. Colorado will send out Kyle Freeland, who is 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 11 home starts. In those 11 home starts with Freeland on the mound, the UNDER has cashed 10 times. San Diego will counter with Joey Lucchesi, who has a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 7 road starts and a 1.69 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 starts against the Rockies this season. That includes an outing at Colorado, where he gave up just 4 hits and didn't allow an earned run in 6 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 10!
|08-20-18||Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 8||Top||5-4||Loss||-108||7 h 17 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Monday's showdown between two of the best in the AL, as the Red Sox host the Indians. This one will feature a matchup of former Cy Young winners, as Corey Kluber takes the mound for Cleveland and Rick Porcello toes the rubber for Boston. Kluber has been lights out of late, posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.783 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Porcello allowed just 1 run on 2 hits with 10 strikeouts in his last start at Philadelphia and the last time he took the mound at home he threw a 1-run complete game against the Yankees. I also think both pitchers have an edge, as this is the first time this season and just the second time since 2016 that Boston will have faced off against Kluber. Porcello on the other hand hasn't faced the Indians since 2016. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-18-18||Bengals v. Cowboys OVER 41||21-13||Loss||-120||9 h 34 m||Show|
50* NFLX VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41)
We have seen a number of high-scoring games this preseason and I'll gladly take my chances here with the Bengals and Cowboys eclipsing their total of 41. Both first units were impressive in Week 1. Dallas went 75 yards on 10 plays for a TD on their opening drive, while the Bengals needed just 6 plays to cover 64 yards in their route to a TD on their first drive. I think both offenses are really trying to establish something in the preseason. We should see a lot more of the first team offense in this one and I like what I've seen from the backup quarterbacks on both sides. Give me the OVER 41!
|08-18-18||Astros v. A's UNDER 8||Top||1-7||Push||0||6 h 44 m||Show|
50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's AL West showdown between the Astros and A's. The intensity of this series got turned up a notch after Oakland's dramatic walk-off 4-3 win in extra innings on Friday. The A's are now just 1-game back of Houston for the AL West lead. I think the early start time after last night's contest really benefits the starters and we have two guys who are really throwing the ball well facing off in this one. Astros are giving the rock to Dallas Keuchel, who has a 2.25 ERA and 1.100 WHIP over his last 3 starts. A's will counter with Trevor Cahill, who is a perfect 3-0 with a ridiculous 0.99 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 7 home starts (UNDER is 6-1). Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-16-18||Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8||Top||5-1||Win||100||12 h 34 m||Show|
50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Thursday's night cap between the Padres and Diamondbacks. Runs are tough enough to come by at Petco Park when a couple of struggling starters take the mound. I think both teams will have a difficult time getting anything going with tonight's starting pitching matchup. Arizona will give the ball to Play Buchholz, who has a 2.25 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 11 starts. San Diego will counter with one of their top young prospects in Jacob Nix, who was sensational in his first career start last Friday, allowing just 4 hits over 6 shutout innings against the Phillies. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-12-18||Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 8||Top||3-4||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in tonight's prime time showdown between the Cubs and Nationals. Chicago has been in a bit of a funk offensively of late and it's unlikely they snap out of it against arguably the best pitcher in the game in Max Scherzer, who is 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in his last 24 starts. While the Nationals roughed up the struggling Jon Lester on Saturday, they now face the red-hot Cole Hamels, who has allowed 1 run on just 10 hits in 11 innings over his first 2 starts with the Cubs. UNDER is 5-0 in Chicago's last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 8-3 in Washington's last 11 road games vs a left-handed starter. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-04-18||Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5||Top||8-4||Loss||-110||21 h 39 m||Show|
50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates. This one is all about the starting pitching matchup and how both starters should keep the opposing offense in check. St Louis will turn to Austin Gomber, who took a no hitter into the 7th inning of his first big league start. Doing so on the road against the Reds, who play in one of the strongest hitter parks in the majors. Pittsburgh will counter with Ivan Nova, who has been at his best when he throws in front of his home crowd at PNC Park. Nova has a 3.15 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-03-18||Rockies v. Brewers UNDER 8.5||Top||3-5||Win||105||10 h 19 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's matchup that has the Rockies visiting the Brewers. This is all about the home/away splits of today's two starters. Colorado will send out German Marquez, who has a 3.30 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 10 road starts, which is quite a bit better than his 4.90 ERA on the season. Milwaukee will turn to Junior Guerra, wh has a mere 3.43 ERA in 20 starts overall, but owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 12 home starts. UNDER is also 24-10-1 in the Brewers last 35 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 16-5 in Guerra's last 21 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in his previous start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-02-18||Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5||Top||8-1||Loss||-115||11 h 10 m||Show|
50* NL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's NL West showdown between the Diamondbacks and Giants. No need to overthink this one, we have two of the best starters in the game going head-to-head in this one. San Francisco sends out their ace in Madison Bumgarner against Arizona's ace Zack Greinke. Bumgarner has posted a rock-solid 3.04 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 10 starts after missing a good portion of the season early and has a 2.62 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 30 career starts against the Diamondbacks. Greinke is 12-5 with a 2.96 ERA in 22 starts, owns a 2.39 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 11 home starts and has a 0.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 18 career starts against San Francisco. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|07-24-18||Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 9.5||Top||4-5||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Nationals and Brewers staying UNDER the mark of 9.5 set by the books. This is all about the starting pitching matchup and the strong home/away splits for today's two starters. Washington's Jeremy Hellickson has a 2.53 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 9 road starts. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra has a 2.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 11 home starts. UNDER is 7-2 in Hellickson's 9 road starts and 7-3-1 in Guerra's 11 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|07-03-18||Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9||Top||11-4||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
50* MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 9)
These two teams combined for just 7 runs in Monday's series opener, but it could have been a lot higher scoring than that. Most notably the Nationals scored just 3 runs on 3 homers. That was also with two top tier starters on the mound in Scherzer and Porcello. With Brian Johnson going for Boston and Tanner Roark starting for Washington, I think both teams have the potential here to surpass the total on their own. Note that the conditions are going to be miserable for pitching with the heat index expected to be in the 100's. Give me the OVER 9!
|07-02-18||Pirates v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||Top||1-17||Loss||-100||11 h 35 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers and Pirates staying UNDER the total of 7.5 in Monday's contest. The ball simply doesn't carry well in night games at Dodgers Stadium and I think this is a much better starting pitching matchup than a lot of people realize. Pittsburgh will send out Nick Kingham, who has a sensational 0.991 WHIP in 6 starts and has simply been unlucky to come in with a 3.82 ERA. As for LA, the Dodgers will turn to Alex Wood, who is trending in the right direction with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I look for both teams to struggle to get much going offensively and for this to stay well under the mark. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|06-05-18||Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8||Top||7-4||Loss||-117||12 h 27 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8)
I'll take my chances here with St Louis and Miami staying UNDER the total of 8 set by the books. The Marlins' Jose Urena is just 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA, but has pitched much better than the numbers suggest and is coming off a strong outing in his last start against the Padres (allowed 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings). Cardinals will counter with Carlos Martinez, who is 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 8 starts. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 13-3 in St. Louis' 16 games this season when they are playing a team that's won fewer than 38% of their games. Give me the UNDER 8!
|06-04-18||Yankees v. Tigers OVER 9.5||2-4||Loss||-100||6 h 38 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 9.5)
The Yankees and Tigers should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs in Game 2 of their double-header on Monday. New York has one of the best lineups in baseball and are red-hot at the moment, having scored 23 runs on 47 hits in their last 4 games. They should have no problem keeping it rolling against the Tigers Michael Fiers, who has a 4.44 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 10 starts. I also think Detroit's offense is going to be able to put up a big number, as the Yankees will send out Domingo German, who has a 6.64 ERA in 4 starts overall, a 9.41 ERA in his last 3 outings and in his lone road start this season he gave up 6 runs in just 3 2/3 innings at Texas. Give me the OVER 9.5!
|06-01-18||Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5||7-4||Win||100||20 h 21 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Cubs and Mets going OVER the total of 8.5 set by the books. Chicago's hot offensively right now. The Cubs scored 5 runs in Thursday's win over New York and have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7. I like them to stay hot here against Mets' starter Zach Wheeler, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 9 starts overall, a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 outings and a 7.36 ERA in 4 home starts. I also am expecting NY's offense to produce in this one. Cubs will send out Tyler Chatwood, who has struggled with control all season. Chatwood has 45 walks in 48 1/3 innings pitched. He's also got a 6.75 ERA and 2.530 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|05-31-18||Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5||Top||9-8||Loss||-109||9 h 21 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 9.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Twins and Indians going UNDER the total of 9.5 on Thursday. I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated number here given how each offense comes into this series. Cleveland has scored 7 or more runs in 5 straight games, but the final 3 were against the White Sox and all 5 were at home. The Indians only average 3.9 runs/game on the road and will be up against a red-hot starter in Jake Odorizzi, who has a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts and 1.14 ERA in 4 home starts. Minnesota has scored 8 or more in 2 of their last 3, but that was against the Royals. The Indians will send out one of their top prospects in Shane Bieber and there's been nothing but good things said about this kid and I expect him to pitch well here. Give me the UNDER 9.5!