|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 216.5||Top||105-99||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 5 of the Raptors/Bucks series. The last 3 in the series have gone OVER the total, but two of those were results of blowouts and the other is a game that went to double-overtime. I just think with the thing tied 2-2 and how good these two teams are defensively, we are going to see this thing stay well below the number here. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 216.5!
|05-21-19||Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 217.5||Top||102-120||Loss||-103||9 h 9 m||Show|
50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 4 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Under 217.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 4. Each of the last two in the series have gone OVER the total, but Game 3 going over was a joke. It was 96-96 at the end of regulation, which is a total of 192. The two teams proceeded to score 38 more points in two overtime periods to finish with 230. As much as people want to focus on the offensive stars, these are two elite defensive teams and this game is massive, as we either have the Bucks go up 3-1 or Toronto tie it up at 2-2. Both teams are going to bring it tonight. Give me the UNDER 217.5!
|05-21-19||Marlins v. Tigers UNDER 7.5||5-4||Loss||-119||8 h 49 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's less than appealing matchup between the Tigers and Marlins. Most will just skip over this one, given how bad both of these teams are. While I'm about to predict which team will win, I do think there's a good chance this is a low-scoring game. Both starters are new to the scene and are absolutely dealing in 2019. Miami's Caleb Smith has a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 8 starts. Detroit's Spencer Turnbull has a 2.40 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 9 starts. You also have to factor in these are two awful offensive teams. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-13-19||Astros v. Tigers UNDER 8.5||Top||8-1||Loss||-100||10 h 34 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's series opener between the Tigers and Astros. I absolutely love the pitching matchup in this one and feel we are getting a ton of value with the number. Detroit will have Matt Boyd on the mound, who has arguably been the best pitcher in 2019 that no one knows about. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 8 starts. He's got 63 strikeouts in 50.3 innings and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. Houston will have Brad Peacock on the mound and he's fresh off throwing 7 shutout innings with 12 strikeouts in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|05-12-19||76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209.5||Top||90-92||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 209.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Raptors and 76ers staying UNDER the total in Game 7. I honestly don't think either team is going to reach 100 points. Keep in mind that in the first 3 games played in Toronto, Philadelphia has managed to score just 95, 94 and 89 points. The 76ers defense has been hit or miss, but we know we are getting a max effort in a winner take all scenario. Give me the UNDER 209.5!
|05-12-19||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||5-1||Win||100||4 h 44 m||Show|
40* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Sunday's series finale between the White Sox and Blue Jays. Two offenses that have struggled to score runs in what I feel is going to be an under the radar pitchers duel. Chicago's Lucas Giolito has a not so great 4.06 ERA, but owns a strong 1.290 WHIP. He also has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 3 road starts and a 1.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Toronto will counter with Aaron Sanchez, who has a 3.21 ERA in 8 starts overall, thanks in large part to a sensational 1.59 ERA in 3 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|05-10-19||Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||2-1||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
40* MLB - FRIDAY NIGHT TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances on the UNDER 8.5 in this one. I was on the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's series opener between Arizona and Atlanta. It was a 1-1 game going into the 9th inning and the Dbacks eventually won 3-2. That just continued a trend of horrible offense by both of these teams and we got another great pitching matchup in this one, as the Braves turn to the red-hot Julio Teheran, while the Diamondbacks give the rock to ace Zach Greinke. Give the UNDER 8.5!
|05-08-19||Mets v. Padres UNDER 8.5||2-3||Win||100||6 h 52 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5. New York is sending out Matt Strahm and he's been straight dealing of late. Strahm owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.700 WHIP. Prior to putting up 7 runs on Tuesday, Mets had scored 3 or fewer in 6 straight games. New York will turn to Wilmer Font and when given a chance the guy has produced. Add in PETCO Park and it's pitcher friendly dimensions, it all points to 8 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|05-07-19||Mets v. Padres UNDER 7.5||7-6||Loss||-114||13 h 55 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5. I'm banking on Noah Syndergaard's last start being the first of many great outings after a slow start to 2019. Syndergaard tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just 4 hits, walking only 1 and striking out 10. Padres will send out Cal Quantrill, who is one of their promising youngsters. I'm not as confident with him being dominant going forward, but he should be good here. Mets offense has gone to shit. They have scored a whopping 7 runs in their last 6 games combined (UNDER 6-0), scoring 1 or fewer 4 times during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-07-19||Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8||0-9||Loss||-114||13 h 30 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in LA as the Dodgers will host the Braves. The ball just doesn't carry late at night at Dodgers Stadium. With the two starters we got going in this one, I just think these two teams are going to have a really tough time combining for 9 or more runs. LA will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in 6 starts. Atlanta will counter with Max Fried, who is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 6 starts. Ryu's ERA drops to 2.25 at home, while Fried owns a 1.46 ERA on the road. Give me the UNDER 8!
|05-05-19||Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 214.5||Top||101-96||Win||100||6 h 60 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 4 on Sunday. These two have stayed UNDER the total in each of the first 3 games of the series and the UNDER is 7-1 in Toronto's 8 playoff games and 6-2 in the 76ers 8 games. Philadelphia seems to have figured out this Raptors offense and it just got easier with Siakam unlikely to play. As for Toronto's defense, the energy wasn't where it needed to be in Game 3. I'm pretty confident the intensity will be there as they try to avoid going down 3-1 and tie this thing up at 2-2 going back to Toronto. Give me the UNDER 214.5!
|05-01-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 219.5||97-90||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 219.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Nuggets and Blazers. These two flew past the total in Game 1, as both teams shot better than 50% from the field and 37% from deep. These two will have a much better understanding of what the other team wants to do offensively and this a really big game for both teams. I also don't foresee the two combining for 47 made free throws. Give me the UNDER 219.5!
|04-30-19||Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 220||102-123||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* NBA PLAYOFFS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 220)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Celtics and Bucks. Yesterday the 76ers/Raptors UNDER 221 was my favorite play and that game ended up with a combined score of 183. Keep in mind this was after Game 1 saw just 203 points with a total around 223.
I think there's very similar value in this play. The Bucks and 76ers combined for 202 points in Game 1, finishing well below the mark of 223. That was with the Celtics shooting a ridiculous 54% from the field. Again, they adjust the total, but only by a couple points.
These are two very good defensive teams and no one knows how to disrupt an offense like Brad Stevens and he appears to have a pretty good game plan for Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee will match that defensive intensity in a must-win spot. Take the UNDER 220!
|04-29-19||76ers v. Raptors UNDER 221||Top||94-89||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 221)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Game 2 between the 76ers and Raptors. These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 1, which closed with a total of 223. The game stayed under the mark by 20-points, even with the two teams combining for 70 points in the 1st quarter (280 pace). The most points the Raptors have allowed in the postseason so far is 104 and that was Game 1 of the first round against the Magic. Since then they have gone 5 straight not allowing more than 96. I expect more of the same with a much better effort on the defensive side from Philly. Give me the UNDER 221!
|04-29-19||Astros v. Twins UNDER 8.5||0-1||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's series opener against the Twins and Astros. Hard to see Minnesota scoring more than a couple runs. Houston will have Justin Verlander on the mound, who has started out 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in 6 starts. He's struck out 27 in his last 3 starts, giving up just 3 runs on 9 hits in 21 innings over this stretch. Twins counter with Jake Odorizzi, who has a 1.54 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 2 home starts and just limited the Astros to 2 runs in nearly 6 innings of work in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-29-19||A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9||4-9||Loss||-101||8 h 1 m||Show|
40* MLB NO DOUBT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 9)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Monday's series opener between the A's and Red Sox. Oakland's Frankie Montas is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 5 starts and will be facing a Boston offense that is coming off a 2-game series at home against the Rays where they totaled just 3 runs on 12 hits. Red Sox starter, Eduardo Rodriguez has a not so great 5.88 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 5 starts, but is trending in the right direction. Rodriguez has a 3.00 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 2 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9!
|04-28-19||Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5||100-104||Win||100||6 h 16 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 224.5)
No disrespect to the rest of the league, but I think this is the best series we are going to see the entire postseason, as I firmly believe your 2019 NBA Champion will be whoever wins this series. Golden State knows they were lucky that Chris Paul got hurt last year and I think both teams really have a good understanding of what's at stake here. As much talent as these two teams have in terms of offensive playmakers, both are very strong defensively and I think we see this stay well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 224.5!
|04-28-19||Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 223.5||112-90||Win||100||4 h 44 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 223.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER at this price all day. I'm actually a bit shocked the number here is more than 220, as I think these are two elite defensive teams. In the most recent meeting, back in late February, the Bucks won by a final score of 98-97 with a total of 227. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 in this one, but even if they do we got room to work with. Give me the UNDER 223.5!
|04-26-19||Padres v. Nationals UNDER 7||4-3||Push||0||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7 in Friday's MLB action between the Padres and Nationals. Washington will send out their ace Max Scherzer to the mound and I love taking an elite talent like Scherzer off a bad outing, especially against a sub-par offense like the Padres. Key here is the Nationals offense should also be held in check. San Diego's Matt Strahm has quietly posted a strong 3.05 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 4 starts, which includes a 0.90 ERA in 2 road starts. Give me the UNDER 7!
|04-25-19||Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5||Top||3-1||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's NL East clash between the Phillies and Marlins. It's been a rough start for Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, but the guy finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting last year and is coming off a promising outing at Coors Field against the Rockies. It also helps the Marlins offense is atrocious. Miami is only averaging 2.7 runs/game and hitting .215 on the season, which drops off to 1.6 runs/game and .180 on the road. Key here is the Marlins have a top notch starter of their own going in Caleb Smith, who has a 2.35 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 4 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|04-22-19||Rangers v. A's UNDER 8.5||Top||1-6||Win||100||13 h 58 m||Show|
50* MLB AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in this one. Texas just scored 20 runs over back-to-back wins against the Astros over the weekend, but those offensive outbursts came at home. Rangers are averaging 5.8 runs/game on the season, but just 4.0 runs/game on the road, which tells you how much better they are at home than on the road. The Coliseum in Oakland is more of a pitchers park and the average combined score in A's home games this season is 6.7.
Oakland's offense is in a bit of a slump right now, having scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. Won't be easy snapping out of that funk against the red-hot Mike Minor, who has a 0.78 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in his last 3 starts, which includes a complete game shutout in his last outing at home against the Angels. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-20-19||Giants v. Pirates UNDER 7.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||18 h 37 m||Show|
50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's NL clash between the Giants and Pirates. Pittsburgh's PNC Park favors the pitchers and I think we have a couple of underrated guys going head-to-head in this one. Pirates will send out Jameson Taillon, who most expected to be good, but he's been outstanding in his last 3, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.133 WHIP. His best start also came at home against St Louis and that's his only start at home so far in 2019. San Francisco will turn to Derek Holland, who despite a 4.09 ERA has been effective. Even bigger key to Holland having success, is the fact that the Pirates are hitting just .214 as a team and scoring a mere 2.7 runs/game vs left-handed starters this year. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|04-12-19||Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 8.5||Top||9-1||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's NL East showdown between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami's offense has been really bad to start 2019. They have been shutout 3 times already, including twice in their last 3 games. They just scored a whopping 1-run in a 3-game series at Cincinnati. I don't see them breaking out of their slump against Phillies starter Jake Arrieta.
Key here is I don't think Philadelphia will be doing a lot of scoring either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara has one really good start at home against the Rockies (0 ER, 4 Hits, 8 innings) and one poor outing at Atlanta. I think he's going to be one of those guys that is just going to be a lot better at home. Give me the UNDER!
|04-11-19||Mets v. Braves UNDER 9||Top||6-3||Push||0||9 h 4 m||Show|
50* MLB [NL EAST] TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I'll gladly take my chances on the UNDER 9 in Thursday's NL East clash between the Braves and Mets. This one comes down to the two starters we have going. Atlanta sends out Kevin Gausman, who didn't allow a run and struck out 7 in 7 innings to start 2019. Mets will counter with Steven Matz, who has made two starts and owns a 0.87 ERA and 1.162 WHIP . Matz is also 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in 7 career starts agains the Braves. Give me the UNDER 9!
|04-10-19||Mariners v. Royals OVER 9.5||6-5||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5)
The books just can't seem to set the total high enough in Seattle games. Mariners have played 13 games and only one of them has finished below the posted total. Seattle is not only scoring a bunch, but they are allowing their fair share of runs, which is why the books can't get the number high enough. Mariners are scoring 8.0 runs/game and giving up 4.9 runs/game.
Neither of tonight's starters have great stuff, the Royals bullpen is atrocious and the wind is blowing out towards left-center at roughly 16 mph. I think this hit's double-digits early. Give me the OVER 9.5!
|04-10-19||Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||9-1||Loss||-101||4 h 40 m||Show|
40* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5. I think we are getting some good value on the number due to the fact that White Sox starter, Reynaldo Lopez, has a 10.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in his first 2 starts. The key here is conditions are going to make runs difficult to come by. Temps are expected in the high 30's with wind chill closer to freezing. Wind will also be blowing in from left field at 10+ mph. Rays will send out Tyler Glasnow, who has a 0.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia UNDER 118||Top||77-85||Loss||-105||12 h 36 m||Show|
50* VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH SHAPR MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 118)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER, as I just don't see any reason to overthink this one. You have arguably the two best defensive teams in the country facing off. Neither team likes to push the pace and both have their limitations on the offensive side of the ball. Texas Tech only combined for 112 in their win over Michigan State and Virginia's victory over Auburn saw just 125. I think this could be really tough to watch for those that don't like defense, as I think it could be a race to 50 points. Give me the UNDER 118.
|04-07-19||Reds v. Pirates UNDER 8||Top||5-7||Loss||-115||3 h 6 m||Show|
50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Sunday's NL Central clash between the Reds and Pirates. Love both the starters going in this one and both were sharp in their first starts of 2019. Pittsburgh will send out Chris Archer, allowed just 2 hits with 8 K's in 5 shutout innings in his first start. Cincinnati will counter with Anthony Desclafani, who allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 K's in 5 innings. Bet the UNDER 8!
|04-06-19||Texas Tech v. Michigan State UNDER 132||Top||61-51||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
50* FINAL FOUR PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 132)
I'm shocked this total is in the 130's. I'll gladly take my chances it stays below the mark. Michigan State surprised everyone by beating Duke, but they only managed 68 points on 43% shooting in the win. The Blue Devils play good defense on just their talent. Texas Tech's defense is on a whole different level.
All Michigan State has to do is ask their biggest rival in Michigan, who the Red Raiders held to a mere 44 points and 33% shooting. Michigan State's offense might be a little better than the Wolverines, but not by much.
Spartans are also a very strong defense team and I just think it's going to be a struggle for both sides to reach 50 points and this total is basically asking both teams to score 66. Give me the UNDER 132!
|04-06-19||Padres v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||6-4||Loss||-112||5 h 1 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Padres/Cardinals staying under the mark set by the books. I just think 7.5 is a really good number given the caliber a talent in today's two starters. Michael Wacha is flying under the radar. Injuries have limited him of late, but when healthy he's been really good.
He was sharp in his first start, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts on the road against a potent Brewers offense. San Diego's Chris Paddack only gave up 1 run on 2 hits with 7 strikeouts in his big league debut. I really like him going forward. I think both offenses struggle to get anything going. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|04-04-19||Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 7.5||Top||8-4||Loss||-100||5 h 45 m||Show|
50* MLB AL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's AL East clash between the Yankees and Orioles. New York has James Paxton on the mound and he's one of the best pitchers in the AL. He only gave up 1 earned run and 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings in his first start. Orioles offense has cooled off last two games, scoring 3 or less in both games. Don't see them scoring a lot here.
Yankees offense has scored exactly 1 run in each of their last 2 games and 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. They are without one of the better hitters in Stanton and probably aren't going to go off until it starts warming up and the ball carries a little better. Orioles will also have Alex Cobb on the mound, who was much better in the 2nd half of last year and is only a few years removed from posting back-to-back seasons where he had an ERA under 3.00 in 20+ starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|04-02-19||Wichita State v. Lipscomb OVER 150.5||Top||64-71||Loss||-109||9 h 14 m||Show|
50* NIT SEMIFINAL *MAX BET* TOP PLAY (Over 150.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Tuesday's NIT semifinal action between Wichita State and Lipscomb. For those that haven't watched the Bisons, they have one of the best players you haven't heard of in Garrison Mathews. The guy just put up 44 points against NC State. He can really do it all, as he made 14 shots in total, including 8 from behind the 3-point line. He's playing out of his mind in the NIT and I think the assumption here is that Wichita State is going to be able to shut him down.
I don't think so and as long as Mathews plays well, this thing should easily eclipse this total. Not only is Mathews a prolific scorer, but this Lipscomb team plays at the 14th fastest pace in the country. They are also a very unselfish team (24 assists on 34 made field goals vs NC State). They have scored at leas 86 in all 3 NIT games and given up 80+ twice.
Note that while the Shockers aren't giving up a ton in the NIT, they have played 3 teams that don't like to push the tempo in Indiana (216th), Clemson (252nd) and Furman (231st). The closest thing to Lipscomb that Wichita State has seen in terms of pace is Memphis (7th). Both meetings saw at least 159 points and both times Memphis got to 85 points. Also, Tigers won both of those games, so I would definitely lean Lipscomb for those wanting to play a side. I just see more value in the total. Give me the OVER 150.5!
|04-01-19||Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8||4-2||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
40* MLB LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Monday's NL West clash between the Dodgers and Giants. While LA has been lighting up the scoreboard, they have played a lot of their games early. Ball just doesn't carry as well at night in LA. I also like both of these starters and each are coming off a strong showing this spring. Julio Urias had a 1.72 ERA and 0.51 WHIP with 15/3 K/BB ratio in 15.2 innings. Drew Pomeranz had a 2.81 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. I think we have a full run of value, which is a lot with a MLB total. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-01-19||Hornets v. Jazz OVER 219||Top||102-111||Loss||-115||10 h 16 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 219 in Monday's NBA action between the Jazz and Hornets. Charlotte is playing a lot of young guys and are getting abused on the defensive side of the floor here of late. Hornets just let the Warriors shoot 60% from the field for the game and have allowed 56% or worse in 3 of their last 4. Utah is known for their defense, but have scored 110 or more in 10 straight. I think this easily eclipses 220. Give me the OVER 219!
|03-28-19||Pirates v. Reds OVER 8||Top||3-5||Push||0||6 h 56 m||Show|
50* MLB OPENING DAY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Over 8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 8 in this one. The Reds and Pirates might not have what it takes to compete with the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers for the NL Central crown, but these are not bad teams by any means. I think both have a lot more offensive fire-power than they get credit for and there's a couple other key factors that should lead to a lot of runs being scored.
For starters, the Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the league and while it won't be carrying as well as it will in June/July/August, it's expected to be in the 70's with the wind blowing straight out to left field at close to 15 mph.
As for the pitching matchup, Pirates Jameson Taillon had a mere 4.85 ERA in Spring Training and is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Reds. Cincinnati will turn to Luis Castillo, who is 1-3 with a 4.00 ERA in 5 starts vs the Pirates and gave up 12 runs on 13 hits and 5 walk in a mere 8 2/3 innings in Spring Training. Give me the OVER 8!
|03-26-19||Rockets v. Bucks UNDER 225||94-108||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225)
I"ll take my chances with Tuesdays' marquee matchup between the Bucks/Rockets going UNDER the total set by the books. Anytime you get two elite teams paired against each other, I think both teams come out looking to make a statement, especially when those teams each have an MVP-caliber player like we have here with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
There's also other incentives here. Milwaukee is trying to secure the No. 1 seed so they can start getting some guys like Giannis some much-needed rest over the final few weeks. Houston on the other is desperately trying to stay in the No. 3 seed in the west.
These are also two teams that are very underrated on the defensive side of things and both have been playing really well on that side of the ball of late. Houston is only giving up 105.6 ppg over their last 5 and Milwaukee isn't far back allowing 106.0 in their last 5. UNDER is 15-5-1 in Rockets last 21 and 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 at home vs a team with a winning record. Give me the UNDER 225!
|03-22-19||St. Louis v. Virginia Tech UNDER 126.5||Top||52-66||Win||100||35 h 30 m||Show|
50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5!
|03-18-19||Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 225.5||105-111||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's marquee matchup between the Spurs and Warriors. Golden State is coming off one of it's best defensive performances of the season, as they held Russell Westbrook, Paul George and the OKC Thunder to just 88 points on 32.3% shooting in Saturday's 22-point blowout win. The game before they limited James Harden and the Rockets to 104 points. Spurs have won 8 straight and during this run have been locking opponents down. San Antonio has allowed more than 105 in just one game during this hot stretch and we can bank on a big effort here. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|03-08-19||Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 234.5||105-122||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 234.5)
I wanted to take the Warriors here off that embarrassing loss to the Celtics, but the spread is just a little too high for my liking. Good news is I like the OVER just as much, if not more, as these are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Both of which are not playing all that great defensively as they try to adjust to playing with a new star. For Golden State it's DeMarcus Cousins and for Denver it's Isaiah Thomas. Last time these two teams played the Warriors won 142-111 as they combined for 253. I don't know if they get there, but they easily hit 235. Give me the OVER 234.5!
|02-24-19||Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 233.5||96-123||Loss||-110||6 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 233.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 233.5 in Sunday's Western Conference showdown between Denver and Los Angeles. Nuggets are finally healthy and simply have a plethora of playmakers at their disposal. I just think they are going to be extremely tough to contain and we saw that in their first game back from the break. Denver shot a miserable 40.8% from the field and yet still put up 114 points. Clippers will have no answer and really have no choice but to try to outshoot the Nuggets, which should have this thing flying past the number. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|02-22-19||Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 213.5||112-106||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 213.5)
I'll take my chances with the Clippers and Grizzlies going OVER the total of 213.5. I just think there's some value here on both sides. I think the perception is that LAC is not going to be as potent offensively after trading away one of their top scorers in Tobias Harris, but they made some sneaky good additions in other trades and put up 120+ in each of their final 3 before the break.
As for the Grizzlies, it's the opposite. This team has the perception of being this defensive juggernaut. However, that was before they traded away the anchor in the middle in Marc Gasol. Memphis is in full on rebuilding mode and just aren't going to bring that energy and effort on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch. Give me the OVER 213.5!
|02-21-19||Blazers v. Nets OVER 229||113-99||Loss||-113||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 229)
I'll take my chances here with the Blazers and Nets combining for at least 230 points. Brooklyn is a team that likes to get up and down the floor and are averaging a healthy 114.9 ppg at home this season. Portland can run and gun as well and giving up 113.3 ppg on the road.
More than anything, I think the pace will be up there in this game with both teams well rested out of the All-Star break. Last year the OVER was 9-5 in the first game back from the break and the few that went UNDER barely stayed under the mark. Last time these two played in Brooklyn they combined for 252.
It's also worth noting the Blazers have recently added Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter and we almost always see teams struggle defensively when new pieces are added. Give me the OVER 229!
|02-21-19||Suns v. Cavs OVER 218||Top||98-111||Loss||-109||9 h 16 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218)
I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side.
Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218!
|02-15-19||Buffalo v. Toledo OVER 157.5||Top||88-82||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 157.5)
I'll take my chances here with Buffalo and Toledo going OVER the mark set by the books. These two teams played at Buffalo back in early January and combined for 190 points in a 110-80 win for the Bulls. I just don't see a change in venue being enough for the Rockets to slow down this high-powered Buffalo offense, which is averaging 85.2 ppg and shooting 47% from the field in conference play. However, I could see Toledo keeping pace at home, as the Rockets are scoring 78.7 ppg at home. OVER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Bulls last 9 road games in the month of February. Give me the OVER 157.5!
|02-13-19||Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5||61-62||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 137.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 137.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten clash between Minnesota and Nebraska. Gophers have lost 3 straight and the Cornhuskers have dropped 7 in a row, so both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. I think that leads to a big defensive effort and a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting.
While these two combined for 163 points back in early December, a lot has changed since that game. Nebraska has lost one of their best players in Isaac Copeland and their offense has simply been non-existent of late. Cornhuskers are averaging 56.4 ppg on a mere 32% shooting over their last 5.
They have no choice but to rely on their defense to win and they are only giving up 56.8 ppg at home. Minnesota is also a completely different offensive team on the road, as they average 72.6 ppg on the season, yet have only put up 63.4 ppg on 39% shooting away from home. Give me the UNDER 137.5!
|02-12-19||Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 208.5||108-107||Loss||-109||10 h 16 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208.5)
*I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208.5 in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Grizzlies. Memphis just held Anthony Davis and the Pelicans to 90 points on 39.5% shooting. This team is starting to find its rhythm defensively again and they really need it with how their offense is struggling to get easy looks. Memphis hasn't shot better than 44% from the field in 6 straight games. Spurs defense has been the culprit in their 4-game losing streak. I think we see a big effort on that side following a much-needed 2-day break. Give me the UNDER 208.5!
|02-12-19||Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 132||67-59||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 132)
I'll take my chances here with Michigan State and Wisconsin going UNDER the total of 132. These are two really good defensive teams and it's no secret that the Badgers love to slow things way down and really grind out a win. The Spartans had lost 3 straight before a dominant 79-55 win at home over Minnesota, where they held the Gophers to just 37% shooting. Tom Izzo really pushed his players after the 3-game losing streak and I think we see that same effort we saw against Minnesota in this one. As for the Badgers, they absolutely have to have this one if they want a shot at a Big Ten title. Give me the UNDER 132!
|02-11-19||Oklahoma v. Baylor UNDER 138||53-59||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 clash between Oklahoma and Baylor. The Bears have seen the OVER cash in each of their last 3, but did manage just 63 points last time out against K-State and are dealing with some major injuries. They already lost Tristan Clark to a season-ending injury and may be without their next best player in Makai Mason, as well as King McClure. Both were held out of Saturday's game, which makes unlikely they will play just a couple days later. Baylor is going to have focus more on the defensive side of the ball. As for Oklahoma, they have really been struggling offensively and are coming off a game against Texas Tech where they managed just 54 points. I think both teams will struggle to reach 65. Give me the UNDER 138!
|02-11-19||Bucks v. Bulls OVER 227||Top||112-99||Loss||-110||8 h 9 m||Show|
50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227!
|02-10-19||Lakers v. 76ers OVER 234||Top||120-143||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234)
I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER!
|02-09-19||Hornets v. Hawks OVER 228.5||129-120||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 228.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's NBA clash between the Hawks and Hornets. No team plays at a faster pace in the NBA than Atlanta and only the Knicks, Suns and Cavs are ranked lower in defensive efficiency than the Hawks. That's a pretty good combo for high-scoring games. Charlotte only managed 93 last time out at Dallas, but had scored 115+ in their previous 2 and will be facing a Hawks defense that has allowed 7 straight opponents to reach at least 112 points. Atlanta has also scored 112 or more in 7 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|02-02-19||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 222.5||125-98||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 222.5)
I'll take my chances with the Jazz and Rockets combining for at least 223 points. Houston doesn't figure to have Chris Paul, who is one of the better defenders. It's just going to be run and gun and hope Harden puts up 50 because the defensive effort won't be there on no rest. Utah's defense has been shaky of late and the Jazz are also playing on no rest. I think both teams could score 125 points and all we really need is for one of the two to get there to secure a win. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|02-01-19||Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 131||61-69||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 131)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 131 in Friday's Big Ten action between Maryland and Wisconsin. These two teams already played once this season in a defensive battle, as the Terps squeaked out a 64-60 win at home back on Jan 14th. Both teams shot under 39% from the field. I don't see any reason to expect anything different. Maryland is allowing 62.2 ppg on the road and will be motivated to get a big signature win after losing 2 of their last 3. Wisconsin only gives up 61.7 ppg at home and will be out for revenge. Give me the UNDER 131!
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz OVER 226.5||112-128||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 226.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 on the total for the Hawks/Jazz. I usually don't like playing the OVER in games involving Utah, but I like the spot we are in. Atlanta's the ideal over team. The Hawks play at the fastest tempo in the league and are also one of the worst defensive teams.
Utah's defense has been slipping of late and while some might expect a big effort here after giving up 132 at Portland last time out, I just don't see the Jazz laying it all on the line against a bad team like the Hawks, especially with James Harden and the Rockets coming to town tomorrow.
OVER is 7-2 in Utah's last 9 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|01-24-19||Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 234||116-122||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 234)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in this one. I just think the number here has been set way too high. Both teams have to be battling fatigue, as each will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. For New Orleans they are playing on no rest, as they hosted Detroit last night. Pelicans are also without their best player in Anthony Davis. On top of that, both E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic were banged up against the Pistons and are questionable to play. I think these two will be lucky to hit 220. Give me the UNDER 234!
|01-20-19||Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 219.5||95-120||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 219.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 219.5 in this one. Both Charlotte and Indiana will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set, as the Hornets hosted the Suns on Saturday while the Pacers hosted the Mavs. Both teams won rather easily, so I'm expecting a little more edge defensive than you would typically see in a game with both teams on no rest. UNDER is 35-17 in the Pacers last 52 home games 13-4-1 in their last 18 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. UNDER is also 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Indiana. Give me the UNDER 219.5!
|01-17-19||76ers v. Pacers UNDER 225||120-96||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Eastern Conference showdown between the 76ers and Pacers. Both teams come in playing well, as the Pacers are 9-2 in their last 11, while Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 and off a 149-107 blowout win against Minnesota. I just think the defensive effort is going to be there for both teams and when these two want to, they can be elite defensive teams. Clearly there's offensive talent on both sides, but with the total where it is it's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 225!
|01-17-19||Knicks v. Wizards OVER 226.5||100-101||Loss||-116||5 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 226.5)
First off, for those that don't know, this game is being played in London. That right there has me thinking there will be a lack of defense played. That's even more so when you factor the caliber a teams we have here with the Knicks and Wizards. Washington has been playing decent, surprisingly since John Wall went down. I just think the ball is moving a little more and it's resulted in the ball going in the hoop more frequently. Wizards have scored at least 109 in 8 straight and 121 ppg over their last 7. Knicks are giving up 117 ppg on the road, so 120+ from Washington should be easy. All we need is for New York to hit around 110-115 for this to fly over and the Wizards are giving up 118.7 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|01-16-19||Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224.5||129-109||Loss||-110||12 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 224.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in tonight's NBA action between the Jazz and Clippers. With their top 3 point guards all injured, Utah has really had to rely on their defense of late and they come in having held each of their last 4 opponents to 41.2% or worse from the field.
While they have scored 100+ in 4 straight, they have not shot the ball well at all of late. The Jazz are shooting 42.4% from the field in their last 5. Clippers have held their last 5 opponents to 43.2% shooting and I think we get a big effort on that side from LA, as they come in having lost 3 straight and really can't afford to lose here with their upcoming schedule not all that favorable. Give me the UNDER 224.5!
|01-14-19||Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 207.5||94-112||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 207.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. The Rockets are a great offensive team, but are playing short-handed right now and in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights. I just don't see them playing with the same pace offensively and tired legs is bad news for a team that loves to shoot 3-pointers like the Rockets. Add in Memphis desperately needing a win and the Grizzlies being a team that wants to grind games out with a methodical pace and stingy defense. All adds up to a low scoring game. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|01-10-19||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 224||Top||147-154||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224!
|01-08-19||Kings v. Suns OVER 230.5||111-115||Loss||-102||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 230.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in tonight's NBA action that has the Kings and Suns going head-to-head. These two teams are ideal for a high-scoring game. Sacramento plays at the second fastest pace in the NBA, so possessions for both teams will be up there. The even bigger key is the lack of defense these two teams play. Both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency. Kings give up 117.9 ppg on the road and the Suns allow 112.9 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 230.5!
|01-05-19||Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 147||86-77||Loss||-110||2 h 15 m||Show|
40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 147)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Saturday's huge Big Ten clash between No. 14 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan State. I actually think the line is pretty spot on, but I see a ton of value with the UNDER. These are two really good defensive teams. Michigan State is holding opponents nearly 9 points below their season average and Ohio State is holding opponents nearly 14 points under their average. I just think the fact that both teams come in off high-scoring games is playing into this inflated total. UNDER is 13-4 in the Buckeyes last 17 after scoring 80 or more and 9-2 in the Spartans last 11 after 2 straight blowout wins by 20+ points. Give me the UNDER 147!
|01-02-19||Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 138||72-74||Loss||-109||7 h 36 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten clash between Nebraska and Maryland. Both of these teams are playing outstanding defense. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 57.8 ppg and holding teams to 37.4% from the field. The Terps are only giving up 65.2 ppg, while holding opponents to 40.3% shooting. Both teams went 1-1 in their 2 early conference games and both are going to be highly motivated to make sure they get to 2-1 and not 1-2. UNDER is 8-1 in Nebraska's last 9 with a line of +3 to -3 and 12-3 in Maryland's last 15 conference games. Give me the UNDER 138!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-27-18||Lakers v. Kings OVER 231||116-117||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Kings hosting the Lakers. I'm expecting zero defense to be played here. The Lakers are coming off that huge win on the road over the Warriors Christmas Day. They are primed for a letdown off that huge win, especially given they won't have LeBron or Rondo for this contest. Kings love to push the pace and I the young Lakers will gladly play that style here and both teams should eclipse 120. Bet the OVER 231!
|12-25-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 222.5||Top||114-121||Loss||-110||7 h 60 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|12-25-18||Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 221.5||109-113||Loss||-109||4 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 221.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. I see a ton of value here in this particular matchup. OKC is one of those teams that can be an elite defensive team when they want to and they know they will have to bring it on the road against James Harden and the Rockets. Key here is Houston is without Chris Paul and they just aren't the same offensive team without him on the floor. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-14-18||Heat v. Grizzlies UNDER 199||100-97||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 199)
It shouldn't take a whole lot of explanation to why I like the UNDER in a game involving the Grizzlies. While everyone else in the NBA is trying to spread the floor, push the pace and jack up a bunch of 3's, Memphis is grinding games out with a methodical approach that has an old school feel to it. Miami's still without starting point guard Dragic and last time out scored just 88 at Utah. Both teams rank in the bottom 7 in offensive efficiency and Top 11 in defensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 199!
|12-12-18||Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 218.5||Top||97-113||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
50* NBA CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 218.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with these two Central Division rivals going UNDER the mark set by the books. The UNDER has cashed in 7 straight games involving the Pacers and is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 as well. A big reason for that is both teams are getting it done on the defensive end. Milwaukee is allowing just 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and Indiana is only giving up 97.8 ppg. Both teams are holding opponents under 43% shooting in their last 5. Bucks won by 17 at home way back on Oct. 19, but the UNDER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 218.5!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-06-18||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 216||Top||91-118||Loss||-105||12 h 26 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 216)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216 in tonight's NBA action that has the Rockets visiting the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game where they set a new franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers and shot 61% from the field on their way to putting up a 139 points against the Spurs. Houston's defense has been slipping of late, but the offense has also picked up and I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two to hit at least 220. OVER is 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a win by 15 or more and 8-1 in their 9 home games this season. Give me the OVER 216!
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-23-18||Heat v. Bulls UNDER 213.5||103-96||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (UNDER 213.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Heat visiting the Bulls. This doesn't figure to be a very entertaining game to watch, as we have two offenses that are struggling to score without some key guys on the floor. Miami's offense has gone ice-cold without starting point guard Goran Dragic and even with him they were below-average. Chicago scored 124 on 56.8% shooting last time out, but that was against an awful Suns team. Prior to that the Bulls put up 83 on their home floor against the Raptors and had scored fewer than 100 in 5 of their previous 6. UNDER 8-3 in Bulls last 14 overall and 3-0 in Miami's last 3. BET THE UNDER 213.5!
|11-22-18||Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152||73-57||Win||100||14 h 40 m||Show|
40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 152)
I just don't think these two teams are going to have enough gas left in the tank to shoot well from the field and play at the tempo needed to eclipse the total here. Auburn played an OT game against Xavier to open the Maui Invitational. Their two studs, Bryce Brown and Jared Harper both played 43 minutes. They then had to lay it all on the line against the talk of college basketball in No. 1 Duke, with Harper and Brown each playing 38 minutes. Arizona had a hard fought win against ISU and then played in a track-meet and lost to Gonzaga 91-74. If both teams were playing on 2-3 days rest I would get this total. Give me the UNDER 152!
|11-16-18||The Citadel v. Texas OVER 164.5||69-97||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 164.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER in this non-conference clash. The Citadel are averaging 42 3-point attempts per game and have hit 40.5% of them. They played a game against Clemson earlier that saw 180 points and I think that's where we are headed here. I certainly think they get to 170. Texas is going to flirt with the century mark in this one and after a couple of tough nights offensively, I think they will be excited for the opportunity. Sure a game against UNC is on deck, but that's not until next week. Note that Clemson score 100 on the Citadel and allowed the Bulldogs to score 80. The Tigers won their next two games 71-51 and 74-59. I think those two games show you just how different a pace and style The Citadel play with. Give me the OVER 164.5!
|11-15-18||Oregon v. Iowa OVER 149||69-77||Loss||-105||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 149)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER here. Iowa pretty much brought back their entire nucleus from last year and this was a team that didn't shy away from high scoring games. Iowa was 3rd in the Big 10 and 48th nationally at 79.7 ppg. They were also dead last in the Big 10 and 317th nationally, giving up 78.7 ppg. They have put up 85 ppg over their first 2 and will be playing an Oregon team that has scored 80+ in each of their first 2. Get ready for a track meet in New York on the hardwood. Give me the OVER 149!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-14-18||Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 138||73-46||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's rematch of last year's championship game. These two only combined for 141 points in the title game last year and both suffered some pretty massive losses on the offensive side. Villanova parted ways with Brunson (18.9 ppg), Bridges (17.7 ppg), DiVincenzo (13.4 ppg) and Spellman (10.9 ppg), while Michigan lost Wagner (14.6 ppg), Abdur-Rahkman (12.9 ppg and Robinson (9.2 ppg). Don't get me wrong both teams reloaded and will be a force this season, but I expect defense to be the deciding factor in this one. Give me the UNDER 138!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-06-18||Wizards v. Mavs OVER 225.5||100-119||Loss||-105||11 h 50 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 225.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Mavericks hosting the Wizards. Washington comes in off a much-needed 108-95 win over the Knicks and based on the score it looks like the defense played great, but I just feel it was more of New York's lack of offense and a bad night shooting. Wizards are still giving up 120.7 ppg on the season, including a ridiculous 125.4 ppg on the road. Dallas is a very similar team to Washington. They are a capable offensive team at 110.8 ppg (116.2 ppg at home) and not very good on defense. Mavs are allowing 116.8 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 50% from the field. Give me the OVER 225.5!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-29-18||Hawks v. 76ers OVER 230||92-113||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 230)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's NBA action between the 76ers and Hawks. Atlanta leads the NBA early on in pace of play and Philadelphia isn't too far behind, as they have the 8th fastest pace of play. I think the 76ers will enjoy the up-tempo game and I don't see them being all that interested in locking down defensively against an Atlanta team that simply isn't very good, especially with a big road game at Toronto on deck tomorrow. OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Hawks 3 road games and the averaging score in those games has been 241.7. All we need is for them to get to 231. Give me the OVER 230!
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44||23-42||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.
I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.
On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.
The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-24-18||Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 219||Top||92-97||Loss||-103||10 h 13 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219!
|10-24-18||Mavs v. Hawks OVER 233.5||104-111||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 233.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Mavs and Hawks eclipsing this high total of 233.5. These two teams are both awful defensively. Dallas comes in giving up 122 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 122.7 ppg. Atlanta has also made a point of trying to play as fast as they can. They are doing a good job of it, as they lead the league in pace of play. Dallas will have no problem playing up-tempo against this team, as they are well equipped to outscore them. Look for this one to get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|10-23-18||Kings v. Nuggets OVER 227.5||Top||112-126||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5!
|10-22-18||Bulls v. Mavs OVER 229||109-115||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 229)
Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Both these teams fall into that category. The average score in Bulls' games this season is 239 points and for Dallas it's 148.5. Chicago is giving up 122.5 ppg and Mavs are allowing 128.5 ppg. Give me the OVER 229!
|10-22-18||Pacers v. Wolves OVER 226||91-101||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226)
Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Minnesota is definitely one of them. The average score in Timberwolves' games this season is 250 points, as they are averaging and giving up 125 ppg. Indiana comes in averaging 115 ppg and are giving up 118 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 226!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-19-18||Kings v. Pelicans OVER 232||129-149||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 232)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232 in Friday's NBA showdown between the Kings and Pelicans. Sacramento is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but I like the offensive talent they got and with Fox at the point they are going to play up-tempo. I believe that's going to lead to an offensive onslaught tonight. The Pelicans were fantastic offensively in their opener at Houston and if they can do that to the Rockets, I see no reason not to expect more of the same here in their home opener. New Orleans might just be the best team in the west no one is talking about, but that won't last for long. I think they could hit 130 points again tonight, but even if they hit just 120, that should be enough to eclipse this mark. Give me the OVER 232!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-17-18||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 226||107-98||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 226)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 226 in tonight's Western Conference clash between the Clippers and Nuggets. This is a massive total and I just don't see them getting to it. Los Angeles is a team that everyone is writing off now that their trio of Griffin Paul and Jordan are all gone. They still have a great head coach in Doc Rivers and are going to play hard. They also have the best defensive backcourt in the league with Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley. For Los Angeles to be competitive early, they are going to have to go all out defensively, as the offense figures to struggle to get going with no go-to guy. That duo of Beverly and Bradley will really make things tough on the Nuggets, as they will lock down Denver's dynamic young backcourt of Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. Give me the UNDER 226!
|10-17-18||Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219||113-112||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 219)
I'll take my chances here with the Bucks and Hornets going OVER the mark of 219. I've really liked what I seen from the Hornets offense in the preseason. They really have put an emphasis on the 3-point shot. They hit 19 of them in their preseason finale against the Mavs and I expect a much more free-flowing offense without Dwight Howard on the roster. This is also one of the more deeper teams in the league and should easily eclipse the 108.2 ppg they averaged last year. Milwaukee is another team that I think is going to take a big step forward offensively, as I loved the hire of Mike Budenholzer, who did some great things with the Hawks. Bucks are going to space things out a lot more and they too figure to shoot a lot more 3-pointers. We saw them connect on 25 from deep in their preseason finale against the Timberwolves with all 5 starters making at least 2. Give me the OVER 219!
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!