|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU UNDER 51||16-36||Loss||-112||23 h 59 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 51)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 51 in Saturday's huge SEC cross-division matchup that has No. 2 Georgia visiting No. 13 LSU. I think the only reason this total is as high as it is, is because the Bulldogs come in averaging 42.8 ppg and have scored at least 38 in every game they have played.
The thing that people don't take into account is the level of defenses that they have played. The best defense they have played is South Carolina, who doesn't rank in the Top 50 in total defense and is 98th vs the run (194 ypg).
This LSU defense is the real deal. They completely shutdown both Miami and Auburn and while they gave up 27 to Florida last week, 7 of those were a result of interception that was returned for a TD by the Gators defense. That was also on the road.
Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when LSU is playing well and there's a big time opponent coming to town. I expect them to give this Georgia offense fits and both teams here figure to have a hard time reaching 24 points. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 61||Top||17-14||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit.
Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.
I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.
We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.
TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.
It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61!
|09-29-18||South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 52||10-24||Win||100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 52)
I'll take my chances with this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. This just hasn't been a high-scoring series of late. The most these two teams have combined for over the last 3 seasons is 48 points and the last two matchups have seen a combined 27 and 36 points. Given how strong these two teams are on that side of the ball and how big this game is for both teams, I just don't see a shootout taking place.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding to start the year. They come in ranked 11th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279 yards/game. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/play and rank inside the Top 50 agains both the run (21st) and pass (31st). I just don't think people realize how good that Mississippi State offense is and how impressive it was for the Wildcats to hold them to just 201 total yards.
South Carolina's defense isn't too far behind. The Gamecocks are 33rd in the country, giving up just 332 yards/game. That's with one of their games coming against an elite Georgia offense. They held Coastal Carolina to just 238 total yards and last week limited the Commodores to just 284 on the road.
The other key thing with the defenses is both are great against the run and I feel both of these offenses need to be able to run the football to have success. Kentucky is allowing just 106 rushing yards/game and giving up a mere 3.6 yards/carry against teams that average 5.2. South Carolina is allowing 3.9 yards/carry vs teams averaging 5.5.
The Wildcats are 11th in the country in rushing (269 ypg) and just 117th in passing (158.3 ypg), so it's going to be tough sledding for them in this one. The Gamecocks got a good quarterback in Jake Bentley, but when Georgia limited them to a mere 54 yards rushing, they only managed 17 points.
UNDER is 5-0 in South Carolina's last 5 road games vs a team with a winning road record and 15-5 in their last 20 conference games overall. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Wildcats last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-22-18||Texas A&M v. Alabama OVER 60.5||23-45||Win||100||23 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC clash between Alabama and Texas A&M. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s.
I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one.
I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs.
All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number.
The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|09-15-18||Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 70||Top||62-7||Loss||-115||25 h 11 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.
This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.
There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.
I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.
OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.
|09-14-18||Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60||22-59||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRIDAY OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 60)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER. One of the big reasons that the Tigers offense struggled against Navy last week is the game was play in sloppy conditions with a steady rain making it less than ideal for Memphis' high-powered passing attack. Those conditions certainly played a part in the Tigers turning it over 4 times.
Memphis' offense has to feel like they gave that game away and I look for them to come out looking to lay it on the Panthers. I just don't see Georgia State being able to do anything to stop them. The Panthers were torched by NC State's Ryan Finley this past Saturday, as Finley went 31 of 38 for 370 yards. They also let Kennesaw State's Chandler Burks average 10.6 yards/attempt in their near loss to the Owls at home in Week 1.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Memphis put up 50+ points, which is why I would have to side with them on the spread. However, I do think Georgia State is going to be able to put some points on the board. The Panthers appear to have found something in JUCO quarterback transfer Dan Ellington, who has completed 63% of his attempts for 381 yards with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio.
I know the Memphis defense has looked great the first two games, but one was against a bad Mercer team and the other was against the one-dimensional Navy option offense. Playing on short rest and off that emotional loss, I think the defense could come out flat. I think if we can get a mere 20-points from Georgia State, this one will easily eclipse the mark.
OVER is 7-1 in the Tigers' last 8 non-conference games, 20-8 in their last 28 games at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Sun Belt. Give me the OVER!
|08-31-18||Syracuse v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5||Top||55-42||Win||100||7 h 60 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5)
Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.
I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.
Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.
The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.
OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5!
|08-30-18||Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 52.5||31-27||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 52.5)
This might seem like a high total given the two teams only combined for 36 points in last year’s meeting at Northwestern, which the Wildcats won 23-13. However, that final was a bit misleading, as Purdue only scored 13 points, despite racking up 438 total yards. Northwestern had 14 points in the 1st quarter, but had to settle for 3 field goals the rest of the way. You also have to factor in that game was played in November, when scoring is a lot tougher given the cold conditions.
I also think Purdue games are going to be a lot more high-scoring this year. While the offense was better in Brohm’s first season, it didn’t improve as much as people expected given Brohm’s offensive background. A lot of that had to do with the players learning a new system and only 5 starters returning from 2016. Purdue was also able to rely on their defense to win games, so they didn’t have to force things offensively.
That’s not going to be the case this year. The Boilermakers figure to take a big step back defensively after losing 9 of their top 12 tacklers. In order for them to win games, they are going to have to put up points and with the talent they have coming back (9 starters) they should average close to 30 ppg.
While we are still waiting for the official word on whether Thorson will be available to start for Northwestern, all signs point to him being ready to play, as he’s been practicing fully for a couple weeks now. With Thorson in the lineup, the Wildcats should be able to put up a big number here against this inexperienced Purdue defense.
OVER is 10-1 in Purdue’s last 11 home games as a favorite of 3-points or less and 11-3 in Northwestern’s last 14 Big Ten conference road games. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|08-25-18||Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 46.5||29-7||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* NCAAF "WEEK ZERO" TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 46.5)
New Mexico State has 9 starters back from a defense that only gave up 29.7 ppg and 401 ypg last year. It continued a remarkable turnaround under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. In his first year on the job (2016) he took over a defense that had just allowed 45 ppg and 522 ypg the previous year to only giving up 38.8 ppg and 497 ypg. With all the talent coming back, there’s no reason to think the numbers won’t continue to improve in 2018.
As for Wyoming, their defense carried them in 2017. The Cowboys went from giving up 34.1 ppg in 2016 to only allowing 17.5 ppg in 2017. Not only do they have 8 starters back on this side of the ball, but are loaded with juniors and seniors, making them one of the more experienced defenses in the country.
You also have to factor in the transition that both teams are going through at quarterback. Everyone knows the kind of talent Allen was. As for the Aggies, they got their own hole to fill at quarterback with the departure of Tyler Rogers. He was a difference maker for that offense in 2017. He completed 62% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards with a solid 27-18 TD-INT ratio. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns. Not only does New Mexico State lose Rogers, but they also lose their top wide out and dynamic running back.
Another factor here is coaching. I have a ton of respect for both Martin and Bohl. I’m confident both of these teams will be well prepared for this contest and wouldn’t be shocked if both sides failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|01-01-18||Georgia v. Oklahoma UNDER 61||54-48||Loss||-102||22 h 27 m||Show|
40* OKLAHOMA/GEORGIA ROSE BOWL NO BRAINER (Under 61)
I think it's worth a shot here to take the UNDER 61 in Monday's New Year's semifinal game between Oklahoma and Georgia. I know Oklahoma put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this year, averaging 44.9 ppg and 583 yards/game, but let's not forget about what conference they play in. There's only a few teams in the Big 12 that play any defense and even those teams aren't great. None of which are anywhere close to what Georgia brings on that side of the ball.
The Bulldogs had one bad showing all season, giving up 40 on the road to Auburn, but that was clearly not a focus Georgia team (came into that game with big heads after being No. 1 and starting out 9-0). They proved that was a fluke by completely shutting down Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, holding them to 7-points and just 259 total yards. Add in the extra time to prepare and I think this defense is going to make life tough on Baker Mayfield and the Sooners attack.
Keep in mind the closest defense in terms of talent that Oklahoma faced was Ohio State and while they beat the Buckeyes, they only scored 31 points. That game is also a good sign of what the Sooners defense is capable of, as they limited the Buckeyes to just 16 points and completely shutdown Ohio State's running game, limiting them to just 104 yards on 37 attempts. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Georgia's rushing attack, but I think they play well on that side. I also think the Bulldogs are going to look to grind out possessions and help their defense by keeping them off the field.
History is also on our side. UNDER is 7-1 in Oklahoma last 8 vs an SEC opponent, 7-1 in their last 8 neutral site games, 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 20-7 in Georgia's last 27 vs a team with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 bowl games, and 6-2 in their last 8 neutral site games. Give me the UNDER 61!
|12-27-17||Missouri v. Texas OVER 60.5||16-33||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
40* TEXAS BOWL BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Over 60.5)
I think we are in store for a shootout tonight in the Texas Bowl between the Longhorns and Tigers. While Texas had one of the better defenses in the Big 12, they will be going up against arguably the hottest offense in the country to end the year in Missouri, who scored 45 or more points in each of their final 6 games. Keep in mind that Texas is down several key players on defense, including linebacker Malik Jefferson, defensive lineman Chris Nelson and two of their top defensive backs in DeShon Elliot and Holtin Hill. I just feel that's going to make it really hard for the Longhorns to keep this Missouri offense in check.
On the flip side of this, Texas has a very capable offense and while they weren't as good as many expected in Tom Herman's first year, the extra practice time leading up to this game could have only helped them on that side of the ball. The bigger key here is that Missouri's defense is atrocious. The Tigers gave up 33.4 ppg and 476 ypg away from home this season and that was with playing a bunch of bad offensive teams. In their finale against Arkansas, who I don't think is as good as Texas offensively, they allowed the Razorbacks to put up 45 points and nearly 450 yards. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams scored 40+ in this game. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|12-16-17||Oregon v. Boise State OVER 61||28-38||Win||100||45 h 34 m||Show|
40* LAS VEGAS BOWL TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 61)
The Ducks finished the year averaging a modest 36.7 ppg, which was the 18th best mark in the country. What gets overlooked is that they played 5 games without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. In the 5 games Herbert played in to start the season before getting hurt, Oregon averaged 49.6 ppg. In the 5 games he missed, they averaged 15 ppg and that was with a 41-point outburst against Utah. Herbert returned for the final two games and they scored 48 on Arizona and 69 against Oregon State. This isn’t just a good offense with Herbert, it’s one of the best in the nation.
I also want to point out that I don’t Taggert leaving is going to hurt the production of the offense. They aren’t going to change up anything on that side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal has been named the new head coach.
Boise State’s defense finished with great numbers, ranking 23rd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 35th in points allowed (22.5 ppg), but they played a lot of bad offensive teams in the MWC. The best offense they faced in conference play was Colorado State and while they won the game, they gave up 52 to the Rams. This team also allowed 42 to Virginia and 47 to Washington State in their two step-up games outside of conference.
Oregon’s defense is greatly improved, but they still have their problems stopping the pass. The Ducks were a mere 76th vs the pass, allowing an average of 230.3 ypg though the air. The strength of the Boise State offense is their passing attack, which averaged 254.5 ypg (44th) behind quarterback Brett Rypien, who threw for just over 2,500 yards, completed 63.5% of his attempts and posted a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. The offense could also be forced to throw even more than they would like, as star running back Alexander Mattison is questionable to play. That would be a plus, as we don’t want Boise trying to eat up the clock on the ground.
I think there’s potential here for this to get well into the 70’s and possibly even higher, which makes this an easy play given where this total has been set. Give me the OVER 61!
|12-02-17||Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 48.5||Top||28-7||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5)
As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.
For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.
You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.
As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.
I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.!
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC UNDER 58||Top||28-31||Loss||-105||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58)
These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle.
Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry.
On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time.
I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58!
|11-25-17||Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 52||24-31||Loss||-105||16 h 22 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)
Both Indiana and Purdue go into the final game sitting at 5-6 with the winner becoming bowl eligible and the loser likely done for the year. That basically makes this a playoff game and I think that this total is way to high. Not only does the magnitude of the game favor a lower-scoring affair, but these are two teams that aren't all that great offensively and really strong on the defensive side of the ball.
Purdue comes in ranked 82nd in the country in total offense, averaging right around 385 yards/game and Indiana is 81st at 388 yards/game. Defensively, the Boilermakers are 34th in the country, giving up just 360 yards/game and the Hoosiers are 22nd allowing only 330 yards/game.
UNDER is 9-2 in Purdue's last 11 games and 7-1 in their last 8 against a conference opponent. UNDER is also 8-1 in Indiana's last 9 when playing a road game after their last game was at home. Give me the UNDER 52!
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47||17-40||Loss||-110||65 h 45 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 47)
I'm willing to take my chances here that we don't see enough offense from either side to push this one over the mark of 47. As good as these two teams have been offensively at times this season, most of that success hasn't come against a top tier defense like they each will be facing on Saturday.
Georgia is 3rd in the country giving up just 11.7 ppg and are 4th in total defense, allowing just 245.1 ypg. Auburn is right on their heels, as the Tigers are 9th, giving up only 16.9 ppg and are 14th in total defense, allowing 307.2 ypg.
The reason I say that these two offenses won't come close to their season averages (both come in right round 40 ppg), is we have seen each of them struggle when matched up against a top tier defense. Auburn's came against Clemson, where managed just 6-points and 117 total yards. Georgia's came against Notre Dame, where they totaled just 20 points.
The other key here is that both of these teams are built offensively around the running game and that plays right into the strength of these two defenses. The Bulldogs are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry against the run and Auburn is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. The clock should be running constantly and I also think both teams could struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns, a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 47!
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 48||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||9 h 36 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48)
I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48!
|10-28-17||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M UNDER 55.5||35-14||Win||100||26 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 55.5)
I think the value here is with the total and this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. I’ve been on the UNDER in each of the last 5 games involving the Bulldogs and it’s cashed 4 out of 5.
Last year’s meeting saw zero made field goals. Every time a team scored it was a touchdown and yet it still finished with only 63 points. I think with the way these two teams matchup this season, we see even less scoring and a few more stops in the red zone by both sides.
Mississippi State’s defense comes in ranked 8th in the country, giving up just 271 yards/game. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/rush and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.5% of their attempts against them. Texas A&M’s offense took a big hit in the opener when they lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel and have had to turn to true freshman Kellen Mond. While Mond is a decent threat running the ball, he’s not the best passer. He was just 8 of 24 for 180 yards last week against Florida and now faces a Bulldogs defense that is 2nd in the country, allowing just 153.6 ypg. Aggies have scored 24 or less in each of their last 3 and I think that trend continues here.
The key here is that with Texas A&M should be able to keep Mississippi State’s offense from going off. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense. They are playing with confidence, should get a boost from a rowdy home crowd and matchup well. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game and that plays into the strength of the Aggies defense, which is 38th against the run (135.3 ypg) compared to 92nd vs the pass (245.1 ypg).
UNDER is 33-18 in the Bulldogs last 51 off a win by 17 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after back-to-back wins by 17+ points. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Aggies last 4 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 off a bye week. Give me the UNDER 55.5
|10-21-17||Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5||7-45||Win||100||23 h 10 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5)
I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark.
Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season.
Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg.
Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground.
UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5!
|10-21-17||Purdue v. Rutgers OVER 47||12-14||Loss||-110||19 h 24 m||Show|
40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47)
I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10.
The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game.
I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here.
The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg).
OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47!
|10-14-17||BYU v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5||Top||10-35||Win||100||87 h 19 m||Show|
50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5)
BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg.
They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark.
The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is.
The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5!
|10-13-17||Clemson v. Syracuse UNDER 57.5||Top||24-27||Win||100||21 h 28 m||Show|
50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5)
I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit.
Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.
The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here.
Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry.
The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5
|09-30-17||Mississippi State v. Auburn UNDER 52||10-49||Loss||-110||24 h 3 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)
I have been on the UNDER bandwagon each of the last two weeks with Mississippi State and cashed both times. They only reached 44 in their blowout win over LSU and the total was up close to 55. Last week we saw just 34 combined points in the loss to Georgia. I think this is another one that struggles to reach that 40-point mark, giving us a ton of value.
As I’ve stated in the past, I’m a huge fan of Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Just look at how different Louisville is playing on the defensive side of the ball without him in charge of the unit this year. I know the performance against Georgia wasn’t great, but I believe it was more of the Bulldogs’ players getting some big heads after that win over LSU. I didn’t see the same intensity and fight on defense against the Bulldogs. I have a hard time believing that Dan Mullen will let that kind of effort happen in back-to-back games. I look for an inspired effort here from the Mississippi State defense.
Sure Auburn put up 51 points last week against Missouri, but if you have really watched this team you know there’s major concerns with the offense. They had a whopping 117 total yards against Clemson (BC had 238 against the Tigers last week). It’s also not like Missouri has a good defense or is any good in general. They gave up 31 in a 18-pt loss to South Carolina and 35 in a 32-pt loss to Purdue. Both of which were on their home field.
One thing we can be sure about with Auburn is their defense. The Tigers were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, allowing just 17.1 ppg and 362 ypg. They returned 7 starters to that unit and through 4 games are allowing 11.2 ppg and 237 ypg. After how Mississippi State struggled against another elite defense in Georgia, hard to see them scoring a ton here.
I wouldn’t be shocked if either team got to 20 points and certainly don’t see both offenses having a big day in this one. UNDER is a rock solid 38-18 in the Bulldogs last 56 games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Auburn’s last 6 games following a contest in which they combined for 60 or more points. Give me the UNDER 52!
|09-28-17||Texas v. Iowa State OVER 63.5||Top||17-7||Loss||-110||47 h 58 m||Show|
50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5)
I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country.
The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye.
The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5!
|09-23-17||Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 48||3-31||Win||100||25 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 48)
I cashed in on Missisippi St/LSU UNDER last week and love the UNDER again with Mississippi State taking on Georgia. As mentioned in last week's write-up, this is a different Mississippi State defense under Todd Grantham and a far superior defense than the Notre Dame defense that held Georgia to just 20 points. Speaking of that game against the Irish, Georgia held Notre Dame to just 266 total yards. That's impressive given that the Irish had 606 yards in their opener against Temple and just put another 611 yards on the road against an always strong Boston College defense. This has a grind it out low-scoring game where both sides struggle to get 20 points. Give me the UNDER 48!
|09-16-17||Clemson v. Louisville OVER 58||47-21||Win||100||26 h 26 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUST TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 58)
I think the total here is way too low and it's a result of Clemson just playing a game against Auburn where 20 total points were scored in the 14-6 win over Auburn. The thing is Auburn doesn't have a dual threat named Lamar Jackson, who is the most difficult player in college football. Keep in mind Clemson's defense looked great last year in a 19-13 win at Auburn and had no answer for Jackson at home just a few games later. With this game in Louisville under the lights, I think Jackson shines. He's going to have to, cause the Cardinals defense is not the same without the services of defensive coordinator Todd Grantham (now at Miss St). They let both Purdue and UNC move the ball with ease. Clemson will do the same. I think both teams get to 30 and for those wondering they combined for 78 points last year. Give me the OVER 58!
|09-16-17||LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 55.5||Top||7-37||Win||100||25 h 28 m||Show|
100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5)What’s getting overlooked is how well these two teams are playing on defense. LSU held BYU to a mere 97 yards and 6 first downs in their opener and the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to 33 yards and 2 first downs in their opener. The Tigers followed it up by allowing just 242 yards to Chattanooga and Mississippi State really shutdown a high-powered Louisiana Tech offense. Had it not been for an interception that set up a 2-yard TD drive, the Bulldogs would have led 57-8 going into the 4th quarter. Now LSU having an elite defense shouldn’t be a big surprise. They only gave up 15.8 ppg last year in the first season under defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. Note that the Tigers held Alabama to 10 points. The only time all season the Crimson Tide failed to score at least 30. I think we are seeing a similar type of impact with a new DC at Mississippi State, who added in Todd Grantham, one of the more respected defensive minds in the game. I just don’t see either offense being able to do much of anything in this one and when a team does put together a drive, I look for them to struggle to find the end zone. Give me the UNDER 55.5
|09-09-17||Auburn v. Clemson UNDER 55.5||6-14||Win||100||26 h 38 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BIG MONEY VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Under 55.5)
|09-09-17||Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 68.5||35-42||Win||100||23 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (Over 68.5)
I don't think the books are anywhere close to high enough on this total. Oregon's offense looked a lot more like they had in the Chip Kelly era in that first game under Willie Taggart and there's just a different feel to this year's team. They put 77 on Southern Utah and had 42 with time to play in the first half. Nebraska just gave up 36 points and 497 yards of offense at home to Arkansas State. They got zero chance of slowing down Oregon, who have some big revenge on their mind after blowing that game in Nebraska last year. Thing is, Cornhuskers can move the ball and will do plenty of damage here against the Ducks defense. Give me the OVER 68.5!
|09-08-17||Ohio v. Purdue UNDER 56.5||Top||21-44||Loss||-110||10 h 12 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5)
|09-02-17||BYU v. LSU OVER 47||0-27||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47)
I have a good feeling the Tigers are going to surprise some people early in 2017 with how much different they look on offense. LSU made an exceptional hire in offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who just guided Pitt to 40.9 ppg and 447 ypg last year. Keep in mind that was his first year on the job and the season before the Panthers only managed 28.2 ppg and 377 ypg. He's got a heck of a lot more talent to work with at LSU, including a sensational junior RB in Derrius Guice. I think BYU is going to be a bit shell-shocked here with LSU's offense. At the same time, I also think the Cougars put some points on the board. LSU lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. They have to replace their top 5 tacklers and their best returning defensive player (Arden Key) is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Give me the OVER 47!
|09-02-17||Louisville v. Purdue OVER 67.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-110||27 h 47 m||Show|
50* POWER 5 NON CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (OVER 67.5)
For whatever reason the entire country is sleeping on Louisville and returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson this season. I know the Cardinals struggled down the stretch, but I believe it was more of the team not being as focused after losing out on their playoff hopes than opposing defenses figuring them out. Petrino has won everywhere he's went and Jackson is only going to be better this year. I love the hire by Purdue with Jeff Brohm, which should pay off on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense will remain a work in progress. Keep in mind were talking about a Boilermakers defense that allowed 40+ points in 6 games, that includes 50 to Maryland, 44 to Minnesota, 45 to Northwestern and 49 to Iowa. Louisville is on a whole different planet in terms of offensive explosiveness than those teams. I think they score at least 40 and potentially a lot more here, while Purdue adds more than enough to push us over the mark. Give me the OVER 67.5!
|09-02-17||Maryland v. Texas OVER 56||51-41||Win||100||21 h 39 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 56)I think Herman is the real deal and I’m confident that he’s going to take Texas’ offense to a whole different level in 2017. When Herman took over at Houston he inherited a team that had only 5 starters back from a unit that averaged 29.8 ppg. He guided them to 40.4 ppg. He steps into an even better situation here with Texas, who has 7 starters back on offense, including what looks like a future star in sophomore QB Shane Buechele. Last year Maryland's offense managed 25.8 ppg, despite the fact that they scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their 13 games. They got some electric playmakers in running back Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison. Johnson average 9.1 yards/carry on 110 attempts and Harrison averaged 7.2 on 88. Wide out D.J. Moore average 15.5 yards/catch. Sophomore Tyrell Pigrome won the starting job and brings a new dynamic with his ability to run the ball. Last year he had 62 attempts for 254 yards and 4 scores in a limited role. I expect them to generate some offense here against the Longhorns. Give me the OVER!
|08-31-17||Florida International v. Central Florida OVER 56.5||Top||17-61||Win||100||19 h 12 m||Show|
50* CFB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Over 56.5)
I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. These two teams played last year and combined for 67 points in a 53-14 win by UCF. I think we see a similar scoring output here, giving us all kinds of breathing room. Scott Frost brought Oregon's uptempo attack with him to Orlando and if you recall the Ducks loved to poor it on teams. FIU should be improved under head coach Butch Davis, but will struggle to slow down UCF's offense which has 9 starters back and should get even better play out of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who flashed as a true freshman. FIU only averaged 24 ppg last year, but should see a huge uptick in their production under new OC Rich Skrosky. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|01-09-17||Clemson v. Alabama OVER 50.5||Top||35-31||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
50* Clemson/Alabama Vegas Sharp Money Total Top Play (OVER 50.5)
I think everyone is falling into a similar trap to last year's title game, where there's so much talk about how dominant Alabama's defense is and Clemson coming off a dominant performance in their Semifinals matchup. Last year they beat Oklahoma 37-17, keeping an explosive Sooners offense in check. I just don't see this being a defensive battle. Clemson's defense has had their fair share of games where the defense struggled, giving up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 42 to Pitt. Let's also not forget that Alabama has scored 30+ in 12 of their 14 games. The offense didn't look good against Washington, but Kiffin wasn't on his game. I just think there's too much talent on offense on both sides for this to stay under the total here. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-23-16||Louisiana Tech v. Navy OVER 67.5||48-45||Win||100||5 h 39 m||Show|
40* Armed Forces Bowl Total Crusher (OVER 67.5)
I think we are going to see a lot of points on the scoreboard Friday afternoon when Navy takes on Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs haven't faced a triple-option team in years and I expect a much better Midshipmen offense now that they have had time to get their new quarterback adjusted to the offense. If not for Navy struggling offensively in their last 2 games, I believe this total would be pushing 80 points. Louisiana Tech has scored at least 44 points in 7 of their last 8 games, the only time they didn't was a meaningless game against Southern Miss, where they had nothing to play for having already secured a spot in the C-USA title game. If they simply get to 44, we only need 24 from Navy and I think they the Midshipmen will be in the 30s. I also wouldn't be shocked if La Tech put up 50+ in this one. Give me the OVER!
|12-19-16||Central Michigan v. Tulsa OVER 69.5||10-55||Loss||-105||3 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF -Beach Bowl- Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 69.5)
This game has a high-scoring shootout written all over it. Tulsa is the heavy favorite and should have no problem dictating the tempo, which is key here. The Golden Hurricane like to play fast and have a dynamic offense. I just don't see the Chippewas being able to slow them down and that's really the key here. Tulsa doesn't play a lot of defense and while Central Michigan's offense struggled in MAC play, they should be able to put up a big number here. The Chippewas have a above-average signal caller, who should have a field day here. Give me the OVER 69.5!
|12-03-16||Penn State v. Wisconsin UNDER 47||38-31||Loss||-115||27 h 23 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake (UNDER 47)
It's no secret that Wisconsin has one of the best defenses in the country. In terms of Big Ten defenses, it's right on par with Michigan, which held Penn State to just 10 points and 191 yards of total offense. Right behind those two defenses is Ohio State. While the Nittany Lions pulled off the upset against the Buckeyes, they only had 276 yards of total offense and keep in mind they were sitting on 7-points going into the 4th quarter of that game. They ended up scoring 24, but they blocked a punt setting up a field goal and blocked an OSU field goal and returned it for a touchdown. The key here is the Nittany Lions have got a lot better defensively and Wisconsin is average at best offensively. Not to mention, the Badgers want to run the football and control the clock. I just don't see enough offense here for these two to flirt with going over this total. Give me the UNDER!
|11-26-16||Auburn v. Alabama UNDER 47.5||12-30||Win||100||25 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 47.5)
Offense will be hard to come by in this one. Both of these teams are built offensively around their running games and are going to run the football no matter what defense they are up against. Both will have a difficult time getting anything going, as these are two of the best run defenses in the country. Alabama leads the nation, giving up just 68.9 ypg on the ground and Auburn is 19th, allowing just 117.7 ypg. I think this has the makings of a very similar type of game we saw a couple weeks ago when Alabama faced off against LSU. Give me the UNDER 47.5!
|11-26-16||Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 45.5||27-30||Loss||-120||22 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Situational Total No Brainer (Under 45.5)
These are two of the best defenses in the country facing off in arguably the biggest game of the weekend. Ohio State ranks 4th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279.8 ypg and Michigan leads the nation in total defense, allowing just 245.6 ypg. The Wolverines are limited offensively and will have a horrible time scoring here against the Buckeyes. I look for them to really try and control the clock and keep the Ohio State offense off the field and more importantly keep their defense fresh. Touchdowns will be hard to come by and i just don't see either team getting to 20 points, making this an easy play for me. Give me the UNDER 45.5!
|11-11-16||Boston College v. Florida State UNDER 47.5||7-45||Loss||-107||6 h 24 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Friday Night Total Crusher (Under 47.5)
I don't see either team doing a lot offensively in this one. While Florida State's defense hasn't been great and the numbers aren't good, they have played a brutal schedule that has featured a number of really good offenses. The one FBS opponent they faced that was anywhere close to as bad as BC offensively was Wake Forest and they limited them to just 6 points and 252 yards of total offense. While the Eagles will struggle to score, their defense should be able to hold their own against the Seminoles. Boston College features one of the best defenses in the country and have had a lot of success slowing down Florida State in recent meetings. Holding them to 20 or less in each of the last two. Give me the UNDER 47.5!
|11-05-16||Washington v. California OVER 76||Top||66-27||Win||100||29 h 8 m||Show|
50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 76)
Anytime Cal is involved in a game, you have to be thinking OVER. They are 8th in the country in total offense, with the 4th ranked passing attack at (365.6 ypg). They are also 124th in total defense. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and giving up 41.7 ppg. They also play at a fast tempo, so there's a lot of possessions for both sides. Washington has a good defense, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. The way Cal plays, it can go one of two ways here in my opinion. We know Washington is going to score against this Cal defense, they are even better offensively than Cal at 46.1 ppg and put up 70 on a similarly bad Oregon defense earlier this year. Cal's offense has success and scores with them or they struggle, get down big, and put up garbage points late. I think it's the former. This is the best offense Washington has seen all season, by far the best quarterback they have faced and the defense could be a step slow here after a very physical game last week at Utah. Give me the OVER 76!
|11-01-16||Western Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61||52-20||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (Over 61)
I think the books have set the bar way too low for this one. Western Michigan comes into this game having scored 41 or more points in each of their last 5 games and should have no problem reaching that mark against the Cardinals. The key here is that Ball State has the offensive fire power to keep pace with the Broncos, especially with this game being played on their home field. Keep in mind these two teams combined for 51 points 61 points last year and that was with Ball State only contributing 7-points. 4 of the last 5 in the series have gone OVER when played at Ball State and the trend continues, as I think these two combine for 70+. Give me the OVER 61!
|10-29-16||Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 73||Top||59-30||Win||100||26 h 29 m||Show|
50* NCAAF AAC Total of the Month (Over 73)
I'm expecting a shootout in Memphis this Saturday, as the Tigers take on the Golden Hurricane. The only team that's been able to contain Tulsa's offense this season is Ohio State, where they managed just 3-points and 189 yards of total offense. The Hurricane have scored at least 31 in every other game and 40+ in 5 of the 6 not against Ohio State. If you take out the game against the Buckeyes, Tulsa is averaging 45.8 ppg and 534.3 ypg. Memphis' defense isn't as good as the 22.6 ppg average they have. They are allowing 39.0 ppg to teams not named SE Missouri St, Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane. Not only should Tulsa put up a big number, but the Tigers figure to do their fair share of scoring as well. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 38+ points in 4 games and the only teams they have held in check are San Jose St, North Carolina A&T and Tulane. Memphis has scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 38.4 ppg. Give me the OVER 73!
|10-28-16||Navy v. South Florida OVER 65||45-52||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Bookie Total Crusher (Over 65)
I think we are going to see a lot of points on the scoreboard tonight. USF didn't play well at all last week at Temple and still put up 30 points. That was their lowest offensive output this season, as they come in averaging 42.4 ppg. Navy's defense comes in having allowed 28 or more in each of their last 3, including 40 points against Houston, who I think offensively is very close to what USF brings to the table. The key here is the Midshipmen should be able to put up some points of their own, as USF's run defense isn't great. I see a lot of big plays on both sides that lead to quick scores and more possessions than you would typically see in a Navy game. Give me the OVER 65!
|10-22-16||Washington State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5||Top||37-32||Win||100||28 h 0 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PAC-12 Total of the Month (OVER 63.5)
I'm expecting a shootout in Tempe Saturday night. I believe we are seeing a much lower total than we should be, due to Washington State's defense holding Stanford to just 16 points and UCLA to only 21 in their last 2 games. The Cardinal offense is limited and are more of a run-first team, while the Bruins were minus their star quarterback Josh Rosen. Arizona State was just held to 16 points at Colorado, but they clearly didn't show up for that game and the Buffaloes have a better defense than people realize. With this game being played at Arizona State, I look for the Sun Devils offense to put up a big number. At the same time, I think Arizona State's defense will be exposed by the Cougars. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and would much rather attack defenses through the air than on the ground. That's going to lead to some extra possessions for both sides and should have this one finishing closer to 75 than 65. Give me the OVER 63!
|10-20-16||Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech UNDER 53||Top||16-37||Push||0||8 h 31 m||Show|
50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 53)
This is basically an elimination game in the Coastal, plus both are coming off a bad loss in their last game. I don't think there's any doubt that we are going to get the very best both teams have to offer. I believe that it's going to result in a low-scoring defensive battle. Both of these teams are legit on the defensive side of the ball. Miami hasn't allowed more than 21 points all season and have played FSU and UNC. I know the Hokies just allowed 31 last week at Syracuse, but prior to that they had allowed 20 points in their previous 3 games combined. It's also worth pointing out that Miami's offense isn't great and has struggled against some pretty average defenses in their last two games in the Seminoles and Tar Heels. Hokies should also get a boost defensively playing at home in a nationally televised weekday game. UNDER is 9-2 in Hokies last 11 conference games and 16-5 in Miami's last 21 when playing on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 53!
|10-15-16||Arizona State v. Colorado OVER 62||16-40||Loss||-107||26 h 5 m||Show|
40* NCAAF No Doubt Total Blowout (OVER 62)
I think we are catching some big time value on the total here. These two teams love offense and with Arizona State getting back starting quarterback Manny Wilkins, I see no reason why we won't see more than 62 points in this game. Colorado has scored 40+ points in 4 of their 6 games. They are however, coming off a 17-point effort at USC, which is part of the low total we are seeing. The defense has played well at times, but have also allowed 45 to Michigan and 38 to Oregon. With Wilkins this Arizona State team scored 44, 68, 32 and 51 points in their first 4 games. They are going to need to score, because their defense has no shot here against Colorado's offense. Sun Devils have allowed 40+ on 3 different occasions. Whenever ASU is playing a good offensive team, the game tends to be very high-scoring. The OVER is 11-3 in their last 14 games against teams who are averaging 425 or more total yards per game and the average score in these games is 80.9. As you can see, we are getting a ton of value. Give me the OVER 62!
|10-15-16||Louisiana Tech v. UMass OVER 62.5||56-28||Win||100||22 h 37 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 62.5)
I believe this total would be 70+ if it wasn't for UMass being perceived as such a bad team that can't score. While the Minutemen are averaging just 18.3 ppg, they have played 3 teams who are currently ranked in the Top 15 in the country in total defense. They showed what they are capable of when they put up 35 points and over 400 yards of offense against Mississippi State. Louisiana Tech's offense is more in line with the Bulldogs. They just allowed 52 last week to WKU and gave up 59 earlier this season against Texas Tech. That's a pretty good sign this UMass team can score in that 24-30 range. That should be plenty to push this well past the mark. Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense and UMass is not good defensively. The Minutemen rank 90th in the country in total defense and are 100th against the run. They have allowed 200+ rushing yards in each of their last 3 games and in those games have allowed 47, 31 and 36 points. The Bulldogs are averaging 39.2 ppg and I see no reason why they don't eclipse 40 points. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|10-14-16||Mississippi State v. BYU OVER 56||21-28||Loss||-105||12 h 58 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Crusher (Over 56)
I believe the fact that Mississippi State scored just 14-points in their loss to Auburn last week, combined with BYU only giving up 14 points to Michigan State, is providing us with some excellent value here on the OVER, as I think these two teams are going to combine for 60+ and may even get into the 70's. BYU's offense has really gained some steam of late and have scored 30+ in their last 3. Mississippi State has allowed 30+ in each of their last 2 and that includes their game at UMass, where they let the Minutemen put up 35 points and over 400 yards of offense. The key here is that BYU's defense has struggled against teams that run the spread offense and that's exactly what the Bulldogs do. Keep in mind just a couple weeks ago the Cougars played a game at home against Toledo on a Friday and that game ended 55-53 with a ridiculous 1,278 total yards combined between the two. Give me the OVER 56!
|10-08-16||California v. Oregon State OVER 71||44-47||Win||100||28 h 58 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Late Night Total No Brainer (Over 71)
You typically aren't going to be looking to play the OVER at 70+ points with Oregon State involved, but that just speaks volumes to how bad the Cal defense is. The Golden Bears have already allowed 30+ points 4 times in their first 5 games and that includes a game against an awful Hawaii team. With Oregon State playing at home and Cal likely not taking this one as serious as they should, I think the Beavers are going to make it 5 of 6 at 30 or more against the Bears defense. On the flip side of this, Cal is going to have zero problems moving the ball against this Oregon State defense, which comes in allowing 427 ypg. The Golden Bears could easily score 50+ in this one (already put up 50+ twice), which means we would need around just 21 points from the Beavers to push over the mark. As stated, I think the Beavers top 30 in this one. Wouldn't be surprised if we had this ticket cashed by the end of the 3rd or early 4th. Give me the OVER 71!
|10-06-16||Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech OVER 68||52-55||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total No Brainer (WKU/La Tech OVER)
This game has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams are efficient in the passing game and are pass-first teams. Each will be going up against defenses who have struggled big time at stopping the pass. WKU is allowing 258 ypg through the air and it's even worse than that, as they have played two horrible passing teams in Rice and Houston Baptist. They allowed Alabama to throw for 351, Miami (OH) to throw for 339 and Vanderbilt of all teams to throw for 279. Louisiana Tech is allowing 373 passing yards per game over their last 3. I'm expecting a lot of big plays here and this one to cruise past 70 points. Give me the OVER 68!
|10-05-16||Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State OVER 54||Top||26-27||Loss||-110||9 h 55 m||Show|
50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54)
I think the books have completely missed the mark here on the total in tonight's Sun Belt game between Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. The Eagles come in allowing just 19.7 ppg and the Red Wolves are averaging just 16.7 ppg, which is a big part of why we are seeing such a low total. However, Georgia Southern's defensive numbers are greatly aided by a soft schedule. The 4 teams they are playing are only averaging 23.2 ppg. Arkansas State on the other hand has played some pretty good defenses, as their opponents are only giving up 21.1 ppg. I think both offenses are going to thrive in this game. The Red Wolves do have some serious problems on defense and are going to struggle against a talented Eagles offense. As for the Arkansas State offense, they recently switched to Justice Hansen at quarterback, who has shown the ability to throw the ball deep. That's how you attack this Georgia Southern defense and it should lead to some big plays and more importantly quick scores. Give me the OVER 54!
|10-01-16||North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 70||37-35||Win||100||21 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAF No Doubt Total Dominator (UNC/FSU OVER 70)
I think we are going to see touchdowns left and right on Saturday when the Seminoles host the Tar Heels. Both of these teams like to play at a fast pace and have special playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are having a horrible time against the run. UNC is giving up 5 yards/carry and FSU is allowing 5.5 yards/carry. Both offenses are going to stay ahead of the chains and that's going to allow them to take some shots deep and finish off drives with points. It's also worth noting that while these are conference opponents, they play on opposite sides and haven't faced each other since 2010, so neither will be all that well prepared for what they are going to see in this one. Both teams are averaging 40+ ppg and each is giving up 30 or more on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the OVER 70!
|10-01-16||Central Florida v. East Carolina OVER 61||47-29||Win||100||17 h 22 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Sharp Money Total Crusher (UCF/ECU OVER 61)
I think the books have completely missed the mark on the total in Saturday's AAC clash between UCF and East Carolina. The Pirates have scored just 15 and 17 points in their last two games, but both of those came on the road against Power 5 opponents in South Carolina and Virginia Tech. Despite not putting many points on the scoreboard, they had over 400 yards of total offense in both of those games. They should have no problem here putting up 30+ at home against the Knights, who are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. On the flip side of things, the Pirates defense isn't very good and UCF is one of the most improved teams offensively in the country. The Knights are averaging 32.2 ppg after hanging 53 at FIU last week. Keep in mind this a team that averaged just 13.9 ppg last year. It's a result of the new uptempo offense installed by new head coach Scott Frost, who previously was the OC at Oregon. I see a lot of big plays from both teams and this one eclipsing the mark early in the 2nd half. Give me the OVER 61!
|09-23-16||USC v. Utah UNDER 46.5||27-31||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 46.5)
I'm expecting a defensive battle here between the Utes and Trojans on Friday night. Everyone is throwing USC under the bus after their two ugly losses to Alabama and Stanford and I think they are going to come out inspired because of it. As for Utah, there's no question they are going to come to play at home in the spotlight of a nationally televised night game. USC might not be equipped to slowdown Alabama or Stanford, but I think they can give Utah a lot of problems. The Utes are only averaging 26.0 ppg and have played two of their games against Southern Utah and San Jose State. In their lone game against someone not named Alabama or Stanford, USC's defense held Utah State to just 253 yards of total offense. I see a lot of long drives that will lead to more field goals than touchdowns, as both teams figure to try an establish the running game. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|09-22-16||Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58||26-7||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Thursday Night Total No Brainer (Under 58)
I think the value here is on the total and this one finishing under the mark of 58 set by the books. Clemson put up 59 points last week, but that was against an awful South Carolina State team. Prior to that they struggled in games against Auburn and Troy. I think this is going to prove to be a tough spot for them to put up a big number. Georgia Tech is a run-first team that wants to control the time of possession and limit their opponents chances. They are going to have to work for everything they get, as Clemson has an outstanding run defense and has had success in the past stopping the triple-option. Georgia Tech has had an easy schedule, but the defense has looked good. They should benefit here from playing at home in front of what will be a rowdy crowd. Each of the last 6 times these two have played each other in Atlanta, they have failed to score more than 57 points and I look for that trend to continue. Give me the UNDER 58!
|09-16-16||Baylor v. Rice OVER 65||38-10||Loss||-110||8 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF Friday Night Bookie Beatdown (Baylor/Rice OVER 65)
I'm not interested in the spread on this one, but I really like the value here on the OVER at 65. Baylor only scored 6 points in the first half last week against SMU, but got things going with a 34-point explosion in the 2nd half. Art Briles might be gone, but the Bears are still running his uptempo offense that can score in the matter of seconds. I think Baylor is going to come out looking to put on a show in the national spotlight of this weekday game on ESPN and I don't think Rice is going to be able to stop them. The Owls have already given up 46 to WKU and 31 to Rice. With that said, I do expect Rice to be better offensively in their home opener. I also don't see Baylor being 100% locked in on defense with this game coming on short rest and their conference opener on deck. I think we get a 51-24 type of game with the potential for more. Give me the OVER 65!
|09-09-16||Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68||Top||62-28||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
50* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play (Louisville/Syracuse OVER 68)
I don't hate Syracuse and the points, but I feel the real value here is on the total and it going over the mark of 68. Both of these teams have strong quarterbacks, playmakers at the skill positions and like to play at a fast pace. I know the opener was against Charlotte, but not many teams could hang 56 points in the 1st half against, let alone score that many in an entire game. Keep in mind that was a Charlotte team that had 16 returning starters and in the 4th year under head coach Brad Lambert. I believe Louisville is one of the best offensive teams in the country and are going to have no problem moving the ball against the Orange. Let's not forget they played late last season and the Cardinals scored 41 points on 579 yards of offense. That was with Syracuse playing a grind it out style offensively. That's no longer the case under new head coach Dino Babers, who is bringing his uptempo offense that he learned at Baylor to the Orange. Syracuse's new style offensively is going to give Louisville some problems, especially with this being played at the Carrier Dome, plus it's going to create more possessions for the Cardinals offense. I think these two eclipse 70 without much problem. Give me the OVER 68!
|01-11-16||Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 50.5||Top||45-40||Loss||-110||10 h 31 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Under 50.5)
I don't see a ton of value with the spread, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total that presents some great value on the UNDER. Both of these teams took advantage of great matchups in the semifinals. Oklahoma couldn't stop Clemson's ground attack and Alabama took advantage of a weak Michigan State secondary. That clearly won't be the case in this matchup and I look for both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off the ones they do put together with touchdowns. UNDER is 33-14 in Crimson Tide's last 57 against strong rushing teams that average 200+ yards/game on the ground and 16-6 in Clemson's last 22 against strong run defenses that allow 2.75 or less yards/carry. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|12-23-15||Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green OVER 64||58-27||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --GoDaddy Bowl Total Crusher-- (Over 64)
With both teams having lost their head coaches prior to this matchup, I look for the offenses to reign supreme in a game that features to dynamic offensive teams. Bowling Green averages 43.4 ppg and Georgia Southern isn't too far behind at 34.7 ppg. I don't see the intensity being there defensively without their head coaches patrolling the sidelines and even if that wasn't the case, I don't think these two defenses would be having much success against the opposing offense. Bowling Green has a dynamic passing attack that averages 376 ypg and will be facing an Eagles defense that allows 7.3 yards pass attempt. On the other side, Georgia Southern has the nations best rushing attack at 356 ypg and will be facing a Falcons defense that allows 4.0 yards/carry. Give me the OVER 64!
|12-05-15||North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 67||37-45||Win||100||25 h 3 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (OVER 67)
I don't think either defense is going to be able to do much from keeping the opposing offense from racking up yards and finishing drives with touchdowns. Clemson is averaging 37.9 ppg and 502 ypg against teams that only allow on average 25.1 ppg and 371 ppg. North Carolina has put up similar type numbers, as they average 41.2 ppg and 496 ypg against teams that allow 29.4 ppg and 397 ypg. The key thing here is that the defensive numbers of both of these teams are drastically inflated due to the cupcake offense that make up the ACC. I think both teams eclipse 35 points and wouldn't be surprised if we saw a final somewhere around the 41-38 range. Give me the OVER 67!
|11-27-15||Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 69.5||Top||42-52||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --PAC-12 Total of the Year-- (Over 69.5)
Oregon won't be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game and aren't a factor for the college football playoff, but I strongly believe that this is one of the best teams in the country right now. Since Adams has returned to the lineup at full strength, Oregon's offense has looked like the offense we have grown so accustomed to seeing the previous years. They put up 65 on Arizona State, 44 on Cal, 38 on Stanford and 48 last week against USC. All 4 of those games finished with a combined score of at least 72 points. Last week Oregon State gave up 52 points at home to Washington, who is one of the more limited offensive teams in the Pac-12 the previous week they gave up 54 to Cal and the week prior 41 at home to UCLA. I'm confident the Ducks will eclipse 50 points in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they scored well into the 60's. The key here is that while Oregon's offense is dynamic and poised for a huge game, the Ducks defense is average at best. Given this being a rivalry game and Oregon State having nothing to lose at 2-9, I look for the Beavers to pull out all the tricks they can think of to try and put points on the scoreboard. This one should fly over the total. Give me the OVER 69.5!
|11-27-15||Missouri v. Arkansas UNDER 45.5||3-28||Win||100||27 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Black Friday Total Crusher-- (Under 45.5)
Missouri will be playing with a lot of emotion in this game. The Tigers need to pull off the upset to become bowl eligible and this will also be the last regular season game, potentially the last game ever, for head coach Gary Pinkel. The Tigers will give everything they have in this game and I look for their defense to keep Arkansas in check. Missouri is 23rd against the run and 11th against the pass and have allowed more than 21 points just once all season. On the flip side of this, I don't expect Missouri's offense to do much of anything. The Tigers are 125th in the country in total offense and Arkansas comes in with the 19th ranked run defense. Razorbacks should be motivated off a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State in their home finale, as they can secure their first winning record inside SEC play since 2011. Also, conditions aren't expected to be great for this game (99% chance of rain throughout the game). Give me the UNDER 45.5!
|11-26-15||Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 73||48-45||Loss||-110||23 h 45 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Thanksgiving Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 73)
Rivalry games tend to be a lot lower scoring than the statistic would suggest. That's definitely been the case in this series, as each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 have finished UNDER the total. I think we are going to see that trend continue. The Longhorns are better defensively than they get credit for and have not allowed more than 24 points in 6 straight meetings against Texas Tech. It's not so much that Texas will shutdown the Red Raiders offense, but keep them off the field. The Longhorns don't have a great offense and are fairly one dimensional with the running game. I look for a lot of long methodical drives that eat up clock and there's no guarantee they come away with points. Give me the UNDER 73!
|11-14-15||Alabama v. Mississippi State UNDER 51.5||31-6||Win||100||21 h 39 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (Under 51.5)
These two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. In fact, you have to go back to 1997 to find the last time these two teams combined for more than 50 points. That's 17 straight with a combined score of 50 or less and I see the streak continuing here. Alabama is clearly one of the best defensive teams in the country, but the key here is that we have an underrated Mississippi State defense playing at home in a night game in a huge revenge spot. Bulldogs are only giving up 3.9 yards/carry agains teams that average 4.5 an Alabama's offense needs to have success on the ground to get their offense going. They only managed 19 points against Tennessee with 117 rushing yards and 27 against Arkansas with 134. Last year they held the Tide to just 124 yards on the ground. I think both teams struggle to sustain drives and settle for field goals in the red zone. Give me the UNDER 51.5!
|11-12-15||Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech UNDER 52.5||Top||23-21||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Under 52.5)
I think we are going to see a low scoring game here between the Hokies and Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is fighting for their season, as they have to win out make a bowl, while Virginia Tech also comes in highly motivated knowing that this is Beamer's last run. While the Hokies are familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their triple-option attack, they get the added bonus here of coming off their bye. UNDER is 21-8 in Georgia Tech's last 29 games played on Thursday and 13-4 in their last 17 home games with a total of 52.5 to 56 points. UNDER is also 26-13 in Virginia Tech's last 39 with a line of +3 to -3 and 6-0 in their last 6 conference road games. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|11-11-15||Bowling Green v. Western Michigan UNDER 74||41-27||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Crusher-- (UNDER 74)
These two teams only combined for 40 points last year at Bowling Green with a total of 67.5. While both offenses look capable of going off here, I think we are going to see both defenses play well. Western Michigan is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 56% of their attempts and it's no secret the passing game is the strength of the Falcons. The Broncos have a balanced attack but want to be able to run the ball (avg 40 attempts a game). Bowling Green is only giving up 141 rushing yards/game inside MAC play. Key here is we are expecting heavy winds, which is going to force both teams to pass less, which is going to keep the clock moving. This game also means a lot for both teams. Bowling Green playing with revenge and Western Michigan trying to hold on to their slim lead in the West. Give me the UNDER 74!
|11-06-15||Temple v. SMU OVER 51||Top||60-40||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Over 51)
This all comes down to the situation. Temple is well known for their defense, but we aren't going to see their best effort on that side of the ball in this spot. The Owls put everything they had into last week's game against Notre Dame and simply aren't going to be able to bounce back with that same kind of effort on the road against a SMU team that likes to play fast. If we simply get 20 points here from the Mustangs at home, we would need just 32 from Temple to cash the over. Considering SMU has allowed at least 38 in 6 straight, that should be a problem. Give me the OVER 51!
|10-31-15||Tennessee v. Kentucky OVER 57||52-21||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (OVER 57)
This total has jumped from 53 to 57 and for good reason. While we missed out on the better number, I'm still extremely confident this once eclipses the mark. Tennessee's offensive has feasted on lesser defenses this season and Kentucky is certainly no juggernaut on that side of the ball. The Wildcats struggled to do anything good defensively last week against dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott, as they gave up 42 points and over 580 yards of offense to an average Bulldogs offense. Tennessee has a pretty good dual-threat of their own in Josh Dobbs, so plenty of reason to expect the Volunteers to put up a big number. Key here is Tennessee isn't great defensively and I certainly don't expect max effort on that side of the ball after laying it all on the line last week against Alabama. Give me the OVER 57!
|10-31-15||Clemson v. NC State UNDER 51||Top||56-41||Loss||-110||21 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Gridiron Total of the Month-- (UNDER 51)
This may seem like a low total given Clemson just hung 58 on the road last week at Miami, but I think this game has a defensive battle written all over it. Clemson is 4th in the country in total defense and NC State is 3rd. Wolfpack offensively were held to 13 points in their only two games against a legit opponent in Louisville and Virginia Tech, so don't expect much from them. The key is I think their defense will keep Watson and the Tigers in check. We saw Clemson only score 20 on the road against a good Louisville defense and NC State seems to play above their potential on this side of the ball when hosting a ranked opponent. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-30-15||Louisiana Tech v. Rice OVER 61||42-17||Loss||-106||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --Gridiron Total Crusher-- (Over 61)
We have seen this total drop from 67 down to 61 and I believe now is the time to strike on the OVER at the low mark. Louisiana Tech has a dynamic offense that comes in averaging 37.7 ppg and 481 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs will be going up against a Rice defense that is allowing 36.9 ppg and 446 yards/game. It's also worth noting the Owls are allowing a staggering 7.2 yards/play, which means we should see a lot of big plays from the Bulldogs. Rice is averaging 30.6 ppg and 436 yards/game. Louisiana Tech is allowing 39.0 ppg and 421 ypg on the road, while allowing 6 yards/play. These two combined for 107 points last year in the Bulldogs 76-31 win and it was the 3rd time in the last 3 years these two teams combined for at least 66 points (at least 1 team has scored 50+ in all 3). I see no reason why both teams don't reach at least 30 points. Give me the OVER 61!
|10-29-15||North Carolina v. Pittsburgh UNDER 55||Top||26-19||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Under 55)
First place in the ACC Coastal division will be up for grabs (Pitt currently sits at 4-0 in ACC with Duke and UNC both at 3-0) tonight when the Tar Heels visit the No. 23 ranked Panthers. I don't see much value in the line at basically a pick'em, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total based on previous matchups. No surprise that these two teams have been great defensively in 2015. Pitt brought in former Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Nartduzzi as their new head coach, while the Tar Heels landed Gene Chizek as their new defensive coordinator. The Panthers come in ranked 16th in total defense (308.3 ypg) and North Carolina is 36th (349.9 ypg). The impressive thing with Pitt's defensive numbers is they have played 5 of their first 7 on the road. Their defense should be even better at home, especially in this big time environment of a nationally televised game. The Tar Heels on the other hand have allowed 17 or less points in all but one game, the exception being against Georgia Tech and their triple-option attack. Both offenses like to run the football and I see this one being a defensive battle all the way. Give me the UNDER 55!
|10-24-15||Tennessee v. Alabama OVER 52||14-19||Loss||-110||22 h 33 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --SEC Total Crusher-- (Over 52)
Since giving up 43 points to Ole Miss at home, Alabama has allowed 0, 10, 14 and 23 points over their last 4 games. I believe it's created some great value here with the over for their game against Tennessee. The Volunteers have a lot of talent on offense and we have already seen them score 27-points on the road against a dominant Florida defense. Last year Tennessee scored 20 on the Crimson Tide and they are a much stronger offensive unit in 2015. On the flip side of this, for as much negative talk that goes on with Alabama and their offense, the Crimson Tide come into this game averaging a solid 35.6 ppg against teams that are only giving up 23.8 on average. Alabama should have no problem moving the ball here against a Tennessee defense that ranks 87th in the country in total defense and giving up 4.6 yards/carry. Alabama could potentially cover this number on their own, but I'm expecting both teams to score here. I think this total is a good 5-7 points lower than it should be. Give me the OVER 52!
|10-24-15||Clemson v. Miami (Fla) OVER 55||Top||58-0||Win||100||18 h 6 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --ACC Total of the Month-- (Over 55)
The books have set a low total here due to the perception that Clemson has a dominant defense. While I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a good defensive team, they have benefited from a soft schedule in terms of teams they have had to face who can spread you out and beat you with both the run and the pass. The only legit offense they have faced is Notre Dame and they gave up 437 yards, including 321 through the air. Miami has a ton of speed and one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Kaaya. At the same time, the Hurricanes aren't going to offer up much resistance defensively. I think both teams score into the 30's here. Give me the OVER 55!
|10-17-15||Alabama v. Texas A&M OVER 52.5||41-23||Win||100||45 h 33 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --SEC Over/Under Total Crusher-- (Alabama/Texas A&M O52.5)
While I think Texas A&M is worth a look on the spread, I think the real value in this game is on the OVER. It's well known that the Crimson Tide struggle defensively against spread offenses and that's exactly what they will face here with the Aggies. Alabama's only game so far against a spread offense was their loss 31-41 loss at home to Ole Miss, where they gave up over 430 yards of total offense to the Rebels. I think Texas A&M is just as good, if not better, offensively than Ole Miss. Alabama's offense is also better than it gets credit for. Last week's game against Arkansas was the first time this season they scored fewer than 34 points, as they finished with 27. Texas A&M's defense is improved, but I don't see them keeping the Tide from putting up a big number. I think this game goes well past 60 points, as we should see a lot of big plays that lead to quick scores from both teams. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|10-10-15||East Carolina v. BYU OVER 58||38-45||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
40* NCAAF --No Doubt Total Blowout-- (EC/BYU Over 58)
When East Carolina is playing anything close to a capable offense the over is typically the way to go, especially when they aren't going up against an elite defense. That's exactly the scenario we have here with this game. BYU comes in with the 78th ranked offense at 388.2 ypg, but are actually better than that number. If you take out the game against Michigan, where they were shutout and only had 105 total yards, they are averaging 30.3 ppg and 459.0 ypg. Defensively they come in just 61st in total defense and aren't great at stopping the run (160.4, 69th) or the pass (216.8, 67th). East Carolina is averaging 31.4 ppg against teams allowing just 25.8 ppg and have played some tough defenses. They put up 24 on Florida and 35 on Virginia Tech. Both teams rely more on the pass than the run, which should lead to a lot of big plays and a bunch of possessions for both sides. Give me the OVER 58!
|10-10-15||Navy v. Notre Dame OVER 56||Top||24-41||Win||100||17 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Over/Under Total of the Month-- (Navy/ND Over 56)
Notre Dame laid it all on the line last week against Clemson and simply won't have the same energy when they take the field against Navy. Similar to what we saw with them allowing 27 points to UMass after that big game against Georgia Tech. Navy has proven they can move the ball against the Irish, scoring at least 34 points each of the last 2 years. Midshipmen look to be even strong offensively in 2015, which isn't a big surprise with senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds calling the shots. While I don't expect a great showing from the defense, the offense will be highly motivated to put up points after scoring only 22 last week against Clemson when they should have had a lot more. Notre Dame had 437 yards of total offense, but turned it over 4 times (only had 3 turnovers first 4 games combined). Like each of the last two years, I expect both offenses to score into the 30's, making this an easy play for me. Give me the OVER 56!
|09-26-15||Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 59||30-27||Loss||-116||19 h 58 m||Show|
40* NCAAF ---Gridiron Total Crusher-- (Over 59)
Couple of weeks ago there's no way I would have been even considering the over in this game, but the Longhorns have finally found themselves a quarterback. Red-Shirt freshman Jerrod Heard completed 20 of 31 attempts for 364 yards and rushed for another 163 yards and 3 scores in last weeks' game against Cal. Heard was pushing to start in the spring and was highly recruited out of high school. While it's too early to call him the next Longhorn superstar, it sure looks that way. Dual threat quarterbacks are extremely difficult to prepare for and Oklahoma State doesn't really know what to expect here. The big key is that Texas' defense still stinks. They gave up 548 yards to Cal last week. I think both teams score into the 30's. Give me the Over 59!
|09-26-15||Northern Illinois v. Boston College UNDER 47.5||Top||14-17||Win||100||16 h 17 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Dominator-- (Under 47.5)
This total has been set too high for this matchup. Boston College features about as run heavy of an offense you will find that's not based strictly off the triple-option. The Eagles have attempted 49, 40 and 43 rush attempts in their first 3 games and totaled just 347 passing yards in their first 3 games combined. N. Illinois is only giving up 3.5 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.1, so I expect them to at worst make BC use a lot of plays to sustain a drive and put points on the scoreboard. Northern Illinois' offense is pretty average and will struggle to get much going on the road against a BC defense that is allowing 1.4 yards/carry and only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 44.6% of their attempts. I see a lot of empty drives and field goals when they get in opposing territory. Give me the UNDER 47.5!
|09-25-15||Boise State v. Virginia UNDER 49||Top||56-14||Loss||-105||9 h 3 m||Show|
50* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Crusher-- (Under 49)
I think the books have set too high of a total here for tonight's prime time matchup between Boise State and Virginia. Both of these teams are strong defensively and that should have these two average offenses struggling to sustain drives and finish them off with touchdowns. Boise State will be without starting quarterback Ryan Finley, which means they are going to have an inexperienced signal caller making his first start on the road, a situation that doesn't figure to end well. Virginia's offense is limited and the Broncos are more than capable of keeping them in check. The energy and intensity that comes with playing in front of a national audience only adds to the value here with this total. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 49!
|09-19-15||Ole Miss v. Alabama UNDER 53||Top||43-37||Loss||-108||23 h 47 m||Show|
50* NCAAF *SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH* (Under 53)
I don't see any value on the spread in this one, but I absolutely love the UNDER. Alabama does not have the same offensive explosion as last year, but are improved defensively. For Ole Miss, all the talk has been about the offense, but I've been more impressed with the defense. I think we are going to see two of the best defenses in the country, potentially the best two, go to battle. I think we could see a similar type battle to Alabama's 2011 home game against LSU, where the game ended with a final of 6-9. Even if there's a little more offense than that, I don't see it getting into the 50's. Give me the UNDER 53!
|09-19-15||Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 55.5||22-30||Win||100||17 h 5 m||Show|
40* NCAAF *SMART MONEY TOTAL CRUSHER* (Under 55.5)
Notre Dame has lost their starting quarterback and running back in their first two games. While I was impressed with backup quarterback DeShone Kizer, I don't think the Irish offense will be as explosive with him as the starter. While the offense might take a step back, Notre Dame still has a very good defense and one that is well equipped to slow down Justin Thomas and the Georgia Tech triple-option attack. Keep in mind they play Navy every year, so their familiar with the triple-option scheme. Defense is also going to get an emotional boost here from the home crowd. They were dominant at home against Texas. Georgia Tech also has a very good defense. While they have played two cupcake opponents, they have dominated on the defensive side of the ball and should be able to keep Kizer and the rest of the offense in check. Give me the UNDER 55.5!
|09-18-15||New Mexico v. Arizona State UNDER 65||Top||10-34||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
50* NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT TOTAL CRUSHER* (Under 65)
This may seem like a low total given these two teams combined for 81 points in Arizona State's 58-23 blowout win at New Mexico last year, but I actually think the value is on the UNDER. Both teams bring a lot back defensively. Sun Devils returned 9 defensive starters and the Lobos brought back 7. Both will have a much better understanding of what the other team is looking to do offensively. New Mexico likes to run the football and that's going to eat up some clock and I don't see the Sun Devils trying to run up the score late with two huge games on deck against USC at home and UCLA on the road. These prime time games also tend to bring out the best defensively and I think ASU could make life extremely difficult on New Mexico, who scored just 21 points last week against Tulsa at home. Under is 13-4 in Arizona State's last 17 home games with a total set at 63 or more points. ROLL THE UNDER 65!
|09-12-15||Arizona v. Nevada OVER 63||44-20||Win||100||23 h 38 m||Show|
40* NCAAF *COLLEGE GRIDIRON TOTAL CRUSHER* (OVER 63)
I expect both offenses to score at will in this one. Arizona has big time playmakers on offense in sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon and sophomore running back Nick Wilson. The Wildcats have averaged over 30+ ppg in each of Rich Rodriguez's first 3 years on the job. They put up 42 points against UTSA in the opener and I see them flirting with 40 again. That's because their offense will have to continue to push to score, as their defense figures to give up a lot. Wildcats allowed 32 points and 525 yards to a UTSA team that only returned 2 offensive starters. Nevada has a more than capable offense and will score more than enough to push this well over the mark. ROLL THE OVER 63!
|09-07-15||Ohio State v. Virginia Tech OVER 53||42-24||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
40* NCAAF *TOTAL CRUSHER* (Ohio State/Virginia Tech OVER 53)
Instead of worrying about whether or not Ohio State covers the 2 touchdowns spread, I think the smart play here is on the total over 53. The Buckeyes proved at the end of last year that their offense can put up points on anyone and I don't expect it to be any different against Virginia Tech. At the same time, I think the Hokies offense will be much improved and will definitely benefit here from Ohio State missing star linebacker Joey Bosa. These two teams combined for 56 points last year with both offenses working behind an inexperienced quarterback in a new system. Ohio State also saw at least 55 combined points in each of their final 14 games of 2014. ROLL THE OVER 53!
|09-05-15||Wisconsin v. Alabama UNDER 49.5||17-35||Loss||-116||25 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF *TOTAL CRUSHER* (Under 49.5)
I don't expect to see a whole lot of offense in this one. There's nothing tricky about Wisconsin's offense, as they are going to line up and try and run it right at you. That plays right into the strength of this Alabama defense, as they tend to struggle a lot more with mobile quarterbacks who run a spread offense. On the flip side of this, Alabama loses a lot offensively, as they have just 3 starters back. They will be sending out an inexperienced quarterback and are going to lean on the run. Wisconsin will be in the 1st year under head coach Paul Chryst, but they retained defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. I see both teams focusing on the ground game, which is going to eat up the clock and have this one finishing under the mark. Roll the UNDER 49.5!
|09-05-15||Louisville v. Auburn OVER 57.5||24-31||Loss||-110||20 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF *OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT* (Over 57.5)
There's no question that bringing in Will Muschamp to be the defensive coordinator is going to help Auburn improve on that side of the ball, but it's going to take some time. Louisville on the other hand has just 4 starters back on defense. Both head coaches are well known for their offenses and I believe both will be on full display inside the Georgia Dome today. Roll the OVER 57.5!
|09-04-15||Washington v. Boise State UNDER 55.5||13-16||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
40* NCAAF *TOTAL CRUSHER* (UNDER 55.5)
I think this is way to high a total for this matchup. Washington's offense is going to be awful this year. Last year's starting quarterback Cyler Miles left the team in the offseason and he was a huge loss (completed 67%, 2,397 yards, 17-4 TD-INT). The Huskies also have just 1 starter back on the offensive line. Boise State loses underrated starting quarterback Grant Hedrick (completed 71% of his attempts) to graduation, as well as leading rusher Jay Ajayi (1,800 yards 28 TDs). Both offenses figure to struggle to sustain drives. As long as we don't see a ton of turnovers that lead to quick scores, this should fly under the total. Roll the UNDER 55.5!
|12-29-14||Clemson v. Oklahoma UNDER 49||Top||40-6||Win||100||5 h 40 m||Show|
10* Clemson/Oklahoma CFB Top Play
BET: UNDER 49
|12-05-14||Arizona v. Oregon UNDER 74||Top||13-51||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
10* Arizona/Oregon CFB Top Play
BET: UNDER 74
|11-29-14||Baylor v. Texas Tech OVER 79||Top||48-46||Win||100||20 h 19 m||Show|
10* Texas Tech/Baylor CFB Top Play
BET: OVER 79
|11-29-14||Purdue v. Indiana OVER 57.5||Top||16-23||Loss||-110||17 h 50 m||Show|
10* Purdue/Indiana CFB Top Play
BET: OVER 57.5
|11-22-14||Tulsa v. Houston OVER 57||Top||28-38||Win||100||14 h 51 m||Show|
10* Tulsa/Houston CFB Top Play
BET: OVER 57
|11-15-14||Florida State v. Miami (Fla) OVER 62.5||Top||30-26||Loss||-110||22 h 25 m||Show|
10* Florida State/Miami CFB Top Play
BET: OVER 62.5
|11-15-14||Mississippi State v. Alabama OVER 54.5||Top||20-25||Loss||-100||18 h 56 m||Show|
10* Mississippi State/Alabama OVER 54.5
|11-11-14||Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 60||Top||24-27||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
10* Toledo/Northern Illinois CFB Top Play
BET: UNDER 60
|11-08-14||Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 67||Top||41-38||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
10* Texas A&M/Auburn CFB Top Play
BET: OVER 67