|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3)
I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||Top||26-23||Win||100||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5)
As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.
Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.
I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.
If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||14-20||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles covering the spread in this one. The Saints starting out the season 9-2 ATS, including a streak of 9 straight covers. That run forced the books to inflate their lines and we saw them fail to cover their last 3. I mean they were laying over a touchdown in a meaningless Week 17 game with Brees sitting out for rest.
I'm not huge on teams that coast to the finish and there were some concerning signs with New Orleans down the stretch. Most notably that 3 game stretch where the offense went missing. I just think we could see them come out flat here having not played a meaningful game in more than 2 weeks.
As for the Eagles, they got the feel of one of those teams that is clicking at the right time and there's clearly something special going on with this team and backup quarterback Nick Foles. The biggest thing is how the defense is playing and I think they not only have a great shot at covering, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5)
I think because Kansas City kinda limped into the playoffs and their defense has been so bad over the course of the season, few are believing this team has what it takes to win it all. Last I checked the most important position on the field is the quarterback and in my opinion the Chiefs have the best signal caller in the postseason.
It’s not just Mahomes and what he brings to the table, this Kansas City offense is unlike anything we have seen before. The Chiefs eclipsed 25 points in every single game this season. KC has weapons littered all over the field and while the Colts defense has been playing great during their big run, I think they are going to struggle to slow this Chiefs offense down.
I’m also not solid on Indianapolis’ defense being as good as the numbers suggest. Don’t get me wrong, they are greatly improved on that side of the ball. However, during their 10-1 stretch, they haven’t played many top notch signal callers. The run includes games against Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Deshaun Watson (twice), Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.
The other huge factor here is where the game is being played. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play for opposing teams, especially in a game of this magnitude. The atmosphere is going to be electric in Kansas City and while this Chiefs offense is built to put up points no matter where the game is played, the defense really feeds off the energy of the stadium. I think because the overall numbers are so bad, people overlook just how drastically better KC’s defense is at home compared to on the road.
The other thing with the Chiefs is they have a top notch pass rush, which really makes it tough on opposing teams if they get behind. KC also is one of the better teams at getting off the field on 3rd down. The Chiefs win here comfortably. Give me Kansas City -5!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||Top||16-44||Win||100||100 h 56 m||Show|
50* ALABAMA/CLEMSON NATIONAL CHAMP ATS WINNER (Clemson +6)
This is a pretty easy one for me, as I actually like the Tigers to win this game outright. I think Clemson has quietly been sitting there all season listening to everyone talk about how this Alabama team is the best team yet under Nick Saban and no one is getting in the way of them winning the title. I’m not about to say the Crimson Tide aren’t an elite team, I just think the Tigers are every bit as good and this line should be closer to a pick’em than a touchdown.
Both of these teams have elite young quarterbacks, who will be playing in the NFL before we know it, so for me it’s all about which defense I trust more to get off the field. I just think the edge has to Clemson on that side of the ball. Even with Dexter Lawrence likely unavailable, the Tigers still have three elite talents on their defensive line. While the guys up front get all the attention, and rightfully so, Clemson has some dudes in the secondary and I think they have the better defensive backs.
For me it just seems like Alabama gets these huge guys that are great at stopping the run, but aren’t the fastest in open space and struggle to play coverage. A big reason why I think a lot of linebackers who were stars at Alabama, have not had the greatest careers in the NFL. The biggest thing for me is how the Crimson Tide defense struggled in their last two games, giving up 301 passing yards to Georgia and 308 to Oklahoma. They also gave up 150+ rushing yards in both of those games.
Another thing for me is that while Tagovailoa put up great numbers against Oklahoma, I still don’t think he’s 100% and just doesn’t offer that scrambling presence that he did earlier in the season. He only rushed for 9 yards on 5 attempts against the Sooners. Not having that mobility against this Clemson defensive front could very well make all the difference in this game. Give me Clemson +6!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||44 h 52 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAVENS WILD CARD SUNDAY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I was on the Ravens in that Week 16 win and cover at Los Angeles and will gladly back Baltimore at less than a field goal at home. Given what we saw just a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how the Ravens aren’t a bigger favorite here. I think a lot of people are jumping on the Chargers in this one, mainly because the perception is that even though Baltimore beat them, LA is the better team. I also think there’s a lack of trust for Baltimore’s rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and a lot of trust for Philip Rivers.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was skeptical of Jackson being able to succeed at the NFL level, especially this early on his career. I thought he would need at least one season on the bench to kind of learn the NFL game and develop as a pro passer. Turns out that while he still has a long way to go as thrower, he’s more than ready to impact the NFL game with his legs. Jackson has rushed for 695 yards and accounted for 45 first downs with his legs (best on the team by 8). Since they went with him as the starter, Baltimore has transformed into an elite rushing team. In the 7 games with him as the starter, they are averaging 229.9 ypg. That would be unheard of if they did that for an entire season.
What this incredible rushing attack has allowed the Ravens to do with Jackson, is control the clock and keep one of the league’s best defenses fresh. It’s a recipe that can work. Baltimore not only beat the Chargers in LA, but they were a couple 4th down conversions by the Chiefs away from a win at Arrowhead.
The big downside is that this style of play will often lead to a lot of close games. I just think that Jackson and the Ravens offense will be able to generate enough points and more than anything, play keep away from Rivers and that Chargers offense. Rivers is known to press the issue when he’s frustrated and he threw 2 picks against this Baltimore defense in Week 15. No team is better at disguising their defense than the Ravens. I’m banking on Rivers making a mistake or two here. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/SEAHAWKS WILD CARD SATURDAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -1)
I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Dallas. The Cowboys have a much bigger homefield advantage than what we are seeing with this line. Dallas is 7-1 on their home field, where they are outscoring opponents on average by 6.5 points/game. Seattle’s not a horrible road team, but they were just 3-4 in true road games and their 3 road wins were all against non playoff teams in the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions. Two of those they won on last second field goals.
It’s no secret that these two teams are built on their running game. For me it’s not so much who has the better rushing attack, but which of these two defenses are better equipped to defend it. That’s where I think we see the big edge here for the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense has been outstanding against run. They finished 5th in the NFL, giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and 5th in run defense, allowing 94.6 ypg. Keep in mind this was with the Cowboys giving up 178 rushing yards in a game they didn’t show up to play in Week 15 (game really didn’t matter in terms of winning division. They had basically won the NFC East the week before with a 29-23 win over the Eagles). They also allowed 143 rushing yards in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Giants (win or lose, Dallas was going to be the No. 4 seed).
On the flip side of this, while Seattle ranks a respectable 13th in run defense, giving up 113.2 ypg, they are 30th in the NFL, giving up 4.9 yards/carry. Only the Chiefs (5.0 ypc) and Rams (5.1 ypc) were worse.
You can also look back at the Week 3 matchup. Dallas rushed for 166 yards on 19 attempts (8.7 yards/carry) and Seattle had just 113 yards on 39 attempts (2.9 yards/carry). The big difference was at that time Dak Prescott didn’t have Amari Cooper to throw the ball. Tight end Geoff Swaim led the team with 5 receptions for 47 yards. Despite only playing in 9 games, Cooper finished as the team’s No. 1 receiver with 725 yards and also led the team with 6 receiving touchdowns.
I think this time around the Cowboys will be able to put some points on the board and really let their defense feed off the energy of the home fans. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that is giving up 350 or more yards/game (Seattle allows 353 ypg). Seattle is also a team that has been overvalued quite a bit in recent playoff games. Seahawks are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|01-01-19||Texas +13.5 v. Georgia||28-21||Win||100||31 h 14 m||Show|
40* NCAAF SUGAR BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Texas +13.5)
I get the Sugar Bowl is a big deal and it’s on New Year’s Day, but there’s no bowl game that’s going to be good enough for Georgia than the playoffs. The Bulldogs were 20 minutes away from upsetting the Crimson Tide and being in the playoffs. I just don’t know how this team can recover from blowing another 2nd half lead to the Crimson Tide, where the backup at the time came in and saved the day for Alabama. Beating Texas does absolutely nothing for this team.
On the flip side of this, I think this game is massive for Texas and their pursuit of getting back to being one of the elite programs in the country. Outside of their win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, this would hands down be the best win for the Longhorns under Herman.
You also can’t ignore the track record that Herman has had not only in bowl games with his 2-0 record (both blowout wins as a dog), but how his team has performed as an underdog in general. Herman’s team has been a dog 15 times and he’s posted a 12-3 record against the spread and won 10 of the games outright.
You also have to factor in that Georgia will be without corner Deandre Baker, who is skipping the game to prepare for the draft. Baker is an absolute stud and a lock to be a 1st round pick. I think that’s a massive blow in this matchup. Texas’ offense is built on their passing game and it will be a lot easier throwing the ball without the Jim Thorpe winner on the field. Give me the Longhorns +13.5!
|01-01-19||Washington v. Ohio State -6.5||Top||23-28||Loss||-106||27 h 27 m||Show|
50* NEW YEAR'S DAY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Ohio State -6.5)
I just think this being the final game that Urban Meyer will coach at Ohio State makes this more than just another bowl game for the Buckeyes.
In terms of talent, I think Ohio State is right there with the likes of Alabama and Clemson. It just seems like this team knows how good they are and has a problem with overlooking teams they should beat. I think it’s why we saw so many close games against mediocre teams and why we have also seen Ohio State suffer some ugly losses the last two years. In 2017 they got annihilated 55-24 at Iowa and this year they had a similar 49-20 loss at Purdue.
The thing is, the big games this team has almost always delivered under Meyer. Nothing speaks more true to that than the fact that Ohio State was a perfect 7-0 against rival Michigan under Meyer and their 4-1 bowl record over their last 5 bowl games.
Keep in mind they were in a very similar spot last year where they won the Big Ten title, but didn’t make the playoff and went out and beat USC 24-7 as a 8-point favorite in the Cotton Bowl.
The other big thing is that I just can’t get over how bad the Pac-12 has been in bowl games over recent years. You also have the struggles that Petersen has had in bowl games with this Washington team and the fact that they simply weren’t anywhere close to as good as what we were expecting. I think the biggest thing is Huskies senior quarterback Jake Browning hasn’t matured liked we all thought he would. He’s one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the country. I just don’t see him going toe-to-toe with Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. Give me the Buckeyes -6.5!
|12-31-18||NC State v. Texas A&M -7||Top||13-52||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Texas A&M -7)
I think this might be one of the bigger mismatches this bowl season. I think Texas A&M is hands down the best 8-win team in the country and NC State might be one of the biggest frauds in the nation. I just don’t think it’s going to be close.
Not only are the Wolfpack a bit overrated coming into this game, but they got two of their best players sitting this out in wide out Kelvin Harmon and linebacker Germaine Pratt. Harmon had 81 receptions for a team-high 1,186 yards and 7 scores, while Pratt led the team in tackles. On top of that, NC State is also having to deal with a new look to their offense, as offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz has left to be the new head coach at Appalachian State.
The biggest thing here is I don’t see Ryan Finley and that NC State offense being able to keep pace here. Texas A&M has a really good defense and one that held teams almost 60 yards under their average. They are almost impossible to run against and I just think that defensive front will be living in the Wolfpack backfield.
As for the Aggies offense, they should be able to put up some big numbers here. While NC State’s defense only gave up 22.7 ppg, they really only played two legit offenses all year in Clemson and Syracuse. The Tigers had 41 points and nearly 500 yards, while the Orange put up 51 and 561 yards. Fisher worked wonders with Kellen Mond this year and I think he’s going to light it up in the bowl game. Give me the Aggies -7!
|12-31-18||Pittsburgh v. Stanford -3.5||13-14||Loss||-109||3 h 56 m||Show|
40* SUN BOWL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Stanford -3.5)
Even with Bryce Love sitting this one out, I’m confident the Cardinal will be the more prepared team when these two take the field on Monday. Not to mention, Stanford is the more talented team and have key edges at quarterback and on the line of scrimmage.
Not to take anything away from what Pitt accomplished, but I do think they are getting some unwarranted love for winning a horrible ACC Coastal. Keep in mind we have already seen two of the better teams in the Coastal get absolutely annihilated in their bowl. Georgia Tech lost 34-10 to a very mediocre Minnesota team and Miami was embarrassed 35-3 by Wisconsin.
I get that the Panthers played Notre Dame tough on the road, but they also had just 242 yards in that game and were outgained by 100 yards and lost despite a +2 turnover margin. I get the Cardinal stunk it up at Notre Dame, but this team has at least shown they can compete with the top tier teams and I like how the finished the season strong.
Keep in mind that Stanford lost by 3-points to Washington State and by 4 points at Washington. Had they won those two, they would have won the Pac-12 North and likely been headed to the Rose Bowl.
Another key here is how the two teams matchup. Pitt is a very run dominated team. They averaged almost twice as many runs (41) as they did passes (22). Even though this wasn’t a great Stanford defense, they only gave up 3.9 yards/carry and just 141 ypg. Most of their struggles came against the pass.
On the flip side of this, the Cardinal have a great solid quarterback in Costello, but really struggled to get the running game going. Pitt gave up almost 5 yards/carry. In their last two they gave up a combined 594 rushing yards to Miami and Clemson. Stanford didn’t lose a game when the rushed for at least 125. Give me the Cardinal -3.5!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||24-10||Loss||-110||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL VEGAS ATS MASSACRE (Vikings -4.5)
I think the perception a lot of people are going to have when they look at this line, is there’s value with the Bears getting more than field goal, as they see Chicago still has something to play for with the No. 2 seed up for grabs and most consider the Bears to be the better team at this point.
I’m not buying Chicago being all-in for this game. I think head coach Matt Nagy is saying all the right things here, with how they aren’t going to assume the Rams are going to win and will play their starters, but I’m confident the players know just how unlikely a scenario it is that LA loses at home to the 49ers.
Not to mention, even if they do show up 100% invested in this game, it’s not out of the question they see the Rams are in complete control early and decide to rest some guys in the second half. I also think they are going to be extra cautious with any injuries that some of their players are dealing with. For example, I would be shocked if safety Eddie Jackson plays even though he’s listed as questionable.
I really think the most important thing for the Bears was to lock up the No. 3 seed, which they did last week. That ensures that they won’t have to travel to New Orleans until at least the NFC Championship Game, if they were to advance that far.
Minnesota on the other hand is basically in a do-or-die scenario and you can count on a playoff-like atmosphere at US Bank Stadium on Sunday. I just don’t think people realize how big a home field edge they have. Since head coach Mike Zimmer came to Minneapolis, the Vikings have gone 29-11 ATS at home, including a 23-8 ATS mark as a home favorite. This also a series that has been dominated by the home team, as the home side is an impressive 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings between these two teams. Give me the Vikings -4.5!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +2||Top||34-32||Push||0||24 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR (Bucs +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog. I think there's no reason the Bucs should be a dog at home against the Falcons. While Tampa Bay comes in having lost 3 straight, one was a defeat at home to the Saints. The other two were on the road against likely division winners in Baltimore and Dallas (both 1-score games).
I'm not sold on Jameis Winston long-term, but he's been playing much better of late. The Bucs have turned it over just 5 times in their last 5 games after a ridiculous 29 turnovers in their previous 9 games. I also think a lot of people aren't aware of how much better this Tampa Bay defense has been playing since they switch defensive coordinators. I also think people would be shocked to hear that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer in 10 straight games. In their last 7 they have held 6 under 200 yards.
Atlanta's offense has not been up to par in the 2nd half of the season. While they scored 40 a couple weeks ago against the Cardinals, that's the only game in their last 7 that they have scored more than 24 and the 24 they put up last week was more of the Panthers not having Newton and not coming to play after getting knocked out of the playoff race. Give me the Bucs +2!
|12-29-18||Notre Dame v. Clemson -11.5||3-30||Win||100||6 h 15 m||Show|
40* CFB SEMIFINAL (NOTRE DAME/CLEMSON) ATS NO-BRAINER (Clemson -11.5)
As much as the betting public loves to back the Tigers, most will convince themselves that this is too many points to pass up with Notre Dame. I could be completely wrong here, but I don’t think the Irish are anywhere close to being on the same level as Clemson, who I feel is right there with Alabama in terms of being in another class compared to the rest of college football.
Sure, the Fighting Irish played 10 teams from a Power 5 conference this year and coming into the season it looked like a pretty difficult schedule. Unfortunately the likes of Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC were not as good as we thought. The win over Michigan looks great, but it’s not nearly as impressive as it was before we watched the Wolverines get annihilated by Ohio State in their regular-season finale.
Haven’t we seen this story before. Everyone was saying that 2012 was different and Notre Dame was going to knock off Alabama. It only took a couple series before we knew the Irish were frauds. Same thing last year when they were No. 3 and favorite at Miami. The Irish didn’t just lose, they got annihilated 41-8.
I’m not saying they are a bad team. There’s a lot of talent on this Notre Dame team. I just don’t think they have enough to hang with the juggernaut that is Clemson. The Tigers just aren’t an elite offensive team, they got some absolute studs on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line. There will be without star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
Lawrence is an amazing player and it certainly will be easier on Notre Dame, but they got 3 other NFL draft picks that are going to be on the field and chances are they probably got a young backup or two that will be playing on Sunday’s down the road. I just don’t think the Irish offensive line is going to know what hit them. I just don’t think they will be able to score enough to keep this thing close. Give me the Tigers -11.5!
|12-29-18||Florida +6.5 v. Michigan||Top||41-15||Win||100||66 h 58 m||Show|
50* FLORIDA/MICHIGAN CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL TOP PLAY (Florida +6.5)
I’m not buying for a second that Michigan is excited at all about playing in this game. I’m pretty confident that for most of the Wolverines players and fans, the season ended with that ugly loss at Ohio State in the finale. A defeat that ultimately kept Michigan out of the college football playoffs. No disrespect to the Peach Bowl, which is a bowl that a lot of teams would love to be in, but it’s a letdown compared to what the Wolverines were hoping for.
I think just how little this game means to Michigan is pretty evident by the fact that they got 4 starters sitting this out to prepare for the NFL draft, including two of their best defensive payers in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush, as well as leading rusher Karan Higdon. Both Gary and Bush are considered Top prospects for the 2019 draft and Higdon is the 5th best running back on the board.
On the flip side of this, I think there’s a ton of incentive here for Florida to play well, as they are still in the early stages of their transition to new head coach Dan Mullen. I think Mullen will convince his team that this game is a measuring stick for the program with Michigan being ranked No. 7. There’s also no doubt that Mullen will be playing the underdog card with his team in this one. I also don’t think Harbaugh is the most liked guy in the SEC and there’s some seniors on this team that haven’t forgot about the whooping Harbaugh’s Wolverines handed them back in the 2015 Citrus Bowl.
You also can’t ignore the track record of these two coaches in bowl games. Mullens is 5-2 overall and won 3 straight to close out his tenure with Mississippi State, including a upset win over Louisville as a 6-point dog in last year’s TaxSlayer Bowl. You then have Harbaugh, who is 1-2 in bowl games with Michigan, having lost the last two outright as a favorite of at least a touchdown. Give me the Gators +6.5!
|12-28-18||Iowa State +130 v. Washington State||26-28||Loss||-100||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* ALAMO BOWL MONEY LINE MASSACRE (ISU +130)
I'll gladly back Iowa State on the money line against Washing State. I not only think the Cyclones are the more talented team, they are better coached, have the better QB and are the more motivated side. I don't think people realize just what kind of talent ISU uncovered at quarterback in Brock Purdy. The bowl practices are only going to help him and I think he's going to torch this Cougars defense. Washington STate's offense is nothing new to the Cyclones, who see that style of play week in and week out in the Big 12. Pac-12 is also just not very good and have consistently under-performed in bowl games. Leach is 1-3 SU in bowls at Washington State and they have been favored in all 4. Give me the Cyclones +130!
|12-28-18||Syracuse -3 v. West Virginia||Top||34-18||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
50* CAMPING WORLD BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Syracuse -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Orange laying a mere field goal against the Mountaineers. I actually liked Syracuse to win this game outright as a 7-point dog with Will Grier still in the lineup. I think it's an absolute gift to get Syracuse at this price without Grier. Sure the backup could be great, but the odds say there will be a major dropoff in productivity at the most important position on the field. I just don't see how the Mountaineers are going to score enough to make a game of it. Syracuse has a legit QB and are scoring 40.7 ppg. They will be up against a West Virginia defense that is allowing 32.8 ppg on the road. Give me Syracuse -3!
|12-26-18||Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -6||34-10||Loss||-110||6 h 39 m||Show|
40* QUICK LANE BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia Tech -6)
I have Georgia Tech rated as the much better team and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot given the circumstances to win by at least a touchdown.
I know Minnesota is going to be excited about playing in their first bowl game under P.J. Fleck, but the motivational edge has to go to the Yellow Jackets in this one. When Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson announced his retirement, this instantly became a lot more than just another bowl game. Johnson has been outstanding in his 11 years with Georgia Tech and these players are going to give everything they have to make sure he goes out in style.
On top of the motivational edge, I really like this matchup for the Yellow Jackets. No surprise behind the triple-option that Georgia Tech was a good rushing team. However, this was quite a season for them on the ground. The Yellow Jackets led the country in rushing at 334.9 ypg. The next best was Army back at 296.3 and we just saw the Black Knights put up over 500 yards in their bowl game against Houston.
It’s the most yards Georgia Tech has averaged in a season since they put up 342 ypg back in 2014. The year they won 11 games and lost a heartbreaker 37-35 to FSU in the ACC title game.
Minnesota wasn’t exactly great at stopping the run. In fact, they rank 75th in the country, giving up 170.7 rushing yards/game. The more staggering number for me is that they allowed 278 yards/game and 7.8 yards/carry away from home. Add in that they haven’t really faced any triple-option teams in recent years and you have to assume Georgia Tech is going to run wild.
I know the Yellow Jackets defense isn’t top notch, but they will be facing a pretty average Minnesota offense. One that ranked outside the Top 70 in both rushing and passing. Not to mention, averaged a mere 24 ppg on the road. Give me Georgia Tech -6!
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-118||31 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs PK)
As difficult as last week’s loss to the Chargers was, I think it’s a gift to lay less than a field goal with the Chiefs against any team in the league and I'm just going to play the money line in this one. Kansas City is 11-3 and their losses have come by a combined 7-points against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Patriots, Rams and Chargers.
It’s not the offense that has let this team down in their defeats, as the Chiefs have scored a ridiculous 119 points in their 3 losses (39.7 ppg). They could just as easily won all 3 of those games and be sitting at 15-0. No way would they be only a 2.5-point favorite if that was the case.
Give Philip Rivers and the Chargers credit for making the plays they did, but so much had to go right for them to get that win. I loved how the Chiefs were able to get a ton of pressure on Rivers and had Eric Berry not been on a pitch count (didn’t play the 2nd half), they likely win that game. Berry was a legit difference maker in the 1st half and is expected to play a bigger role in this game.
I think the Chiefs are going to make life very difficult on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in this one and I just don’t see Seattle being able to score enough to keep this game close. Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now and my money is on him delivering a big time performance when the Chiefs need it the most.
It’s no secret Seattle wants to run the football. Andy Reid is 15-5 in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game as a head coach in the NFL. Chiefs are also 11-3 ATS under Reid in road games after scoring 25 or more in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS last 10 after playing their previous 2 on the road.
I also want to point out that while a win here for Seattle would be huge, they can lose and still secure a Wild Card spot with a win at home over the Cardinals in Week 17. Give me the Chiefs!
|12-23-18||Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers||24-10||Win||100||24 h 59 m||Show|
40* NFL ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Falcons -2.5)
I had Atlanta circled as a play this week after Carolina's loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football. I only like it that much more, given that the Panthers are all but throwing in the towel on the season by sitting Cam Newton to rest his injured shoulder. That tells me this team knew that their only hope of making the playoffs was to win that game at home against New Orleans. You could see it on the players faces at the end of that game.
I just think it’s a really difficult thing to go from playing in what feels like a do-or-die situation, not getting the job done and then have to come out and just play for fun the very next week. The life was sucked out of this team when they lost to the Saints.
Keep in mind the Panthers are going to Taylor Heinicke, who has attempted 5 career passes in his 3 seasons in the NFL. I just think he’s going to struggle to play well in this offense. Carolina doesn’t have a go-to receiver and you can bet that Atlanta is going to put all of their attention on Christian McCaffrey.
As for the Atlanta offense, they finally got back some of their mojo. The Falcons put up 435 yards and 40 points last week against the Cardinals. Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 231 yards and 2 scores and I look for them to have no problem exposing this Carolina defense.
I also want to point out that a big reason the Falcons have underachieved this year is the injuries they were dealt early on the defensive side of the ball. They are in a lot better shape on that side of the ball going into the final weeks. They racked up 7 sacks last week against the Cardinals and in just his 3rd game back after missing the previous 10 games, Deion Jones returned a pick for a touchdown. It really seems like that Atlanta defense feeds off of his energy.
Given everything I have covered, I actually think this line should be closer to touchdown than a field goal, as I think the Falcons are going to have this thing in the bag by the half. Give me Atlanta -2.5!
|12-23-18||Texans v. Eagles -1.5||30-32||Win||100||24 h 55 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Eagles -1.5)
I know Philadelphia has been a major disappointment this year, but for the first time in a long time, we saw this team resemble the team that won it all. The Eagles played inspired last week against the Rams and there’s clearly something about having their backs against the wall and Nick Foles at quarterback that brings out the best in this team.
I see no reason not to expect more of the same against the Texans, who I’m starting to think might be the biggest fraud of them all. The more you look back over Houston’s schedule, the harder it becomes to trust this team. Their only win against a team that’s currently in line to make the playoffs is a 19-16 overtime win at home against the Cowboys back in Week 5 before Dallas landed Amari Cooper.
Sure the defense is good, but I’m not so sure it’s as good as people think. They certainly haven’t played many top notch quarterbacks and when they have they have struggled. I know Foles isn’t an elite signal caller, but I think this Eagles offense will be able to move the ball on their home field.
My biggest concern with the Texans is they are struggling to consistently run the ball and are having an absolute miserable time trying to protect Deshaun Watson. The Jets sacks Watson 6 times last week and he’s been sacked 52 times on the year. If he’s sacked 8 more times over the next two games, he’ll become the seven NFL quarterback to be sacked at least 60 times in a single season.
This Eagles defensive front is not one you want to face if protecting the quarterback is a problem. Philadelphia only had 2 sacks on Jared Goff, but harassed him all night long. I think Watson is in for a long day and the more desperate team wins here. Give me the Eagles -1.5!
|12-22-18||Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii||Top||31-14||Win||100||29 h 57 m||Show|
50* HAWAII BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (LA TECH +1)
I'll gladly back the Bulldogs in the Hawaii Bowl. As nice as it is for Hawaii to being playing a home game for their bowl, I don’t think the home crowd will be enough to overcome the gap in talent here.
At the time the season started it looked like Hawaii had pulled off a couple of nice wins over Colorado State and Navy, but turns out both of those programs were way down. The Rams finished 3-9 and Navy finished 3-10. In fact, the only win the Rainbow Warriors had was a 31-30 overtime win against San Diego State in the regular-season finale. That win looks less impressive given how much the Aztecs struggled in the 2nd half of the season and we just watched them get shutout by Ohio in their bowl game.
You can’t just discredit a team for playing an easy schedule, but the problem is Hawaii really struggled against the good teams they played. They lost by 26 to BYU, 18 to Nevada, 30 to Fresno State and 39 to Utah State. Both losses against Nevada and Utah State coming on their home field.
We also saw a Hawaii offense that was the talk of college football early on, manage to eclipse 30 points just once in regulation over their final 7 games. I think the Warriors will struggle to get that offense going against a solid Louisiana Tech defense. The Bulldogs finished 32nd in the country, giving up just 373 yards/game. They were also 30th against the pass, allowing just 193.6 passing yards/game.
On the flip side of this, Hawaii’s lucky their offense was so good early, because they defense was a disaster. Hawaii was 101st in the country, giving up 438.7 ypg. They were manhandled up front, as they finished 106th against the run, allowing 207.5 yards/game.
Add in the fact that the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 in bowl games under head coach Skip Holtz and I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Louisiana Tech +1.
|12-22-18||Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers||22-10||Win||100||27 h 35 m||Show|
40* NFL SATURDAY ATS MASSACRE (Ravens +4.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and grab the points with Baltimore. I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction with this line on the Chargers. I’m not saying Los Angeles shouldn’t be favored, but 4.5 is a lot in a game that doesn’t figure to be decided until the 4th quarter.
I actually like the Ravens to win this game. Baltimore has been a different team since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. They are 4-1 under Jackson with the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City, where the Chiefs had to convert multiple 4th downs just to force extra time.
I’m skeptical of Jackson being able to do what he’s doing long-term, as mobile quarterbacks have a pretty short shelf-life, especially ones that aren’t built like Cam Newton.
However, that’s not a problem right now and he’s transformed this team with his ability to torment defenses with his legs. Since he took over at quarterback the Ravens aren’t just a good rushing team, they are elite. In his 5 starts, Baltimore is averaging a ridiculous 230.8 ypg.
It’s a deadly combination with a top notch defense, as the Ravens are able to eat up the clock and keep the opposing offenses off the field. No better recipe to win on the road against Philip Rivers and the Chargers then to keep No. 17 on the sidelines.
I know that there’s a ton at stake for Los Angeles in this game, but I’m also a bit concerned they could suffer a bit of a letdown after that big win over the Chiefs. Win or lose, they are going to the playoffs.
The same can’t be said for Baltimore. The Ravens simply can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs. I think they get the job done and worst case keep it close enough to cover. Give me Baltimore +4.5!
|12-22-18||Houston v. Army -5||14-70||Win||100||22 h 6 m||Show|
40* ARMED FORCES BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Army -5)
I'll take my chances with the Black Knights. I just think there’s something special about this year’s Army team and I just don’t see them losing this game. With a win this Black Knight’s team has the right to be considered one of, if not, the best teams in school history. Not to mention I think they feel obligated to play well in a bowl that’s basically name after them.
I’m sure there will be some that think Army is at a disadvantage here, because they haven’t had the same amount of time off. This game will be just two week after the Black Knights faced off against Navy. Houston on the other hand hasn’t played since the day after Thanksgiving. I think if you have two weeks to get ready for a game, that’s more than enough. In fact, I actually think they are at an advantage having just payed, as there’s going to be some rust with Houston.
I get that extra time to prepare for Army and the triple-option is a big deal, but this will not be the Cougars defensive front that everyone was raving about coming into the year. Star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver is not going to play and he’s really the guy that made this unit great. They also lost starting defensive ends Jerad Carter and Isaiah Chambers to season ending injuries. Same thing with one of their top backups in Payton Turner.
We’re also talking about a Houston defense that did a complete 180 in terms of stopping the run this year. In the Cougars first 6 games of the season they allowed a mere 116 yards/game. Over their final 6 games they gave up 278.2 yards/game. Note that one of those was against Navy, who basically runs the same offense and the Midshipmen had 344 rushing yards.
Army’s rushing attack is better than Navy. In fact, the only team that averaged more rushing yards than the Black Knights was Georgia Tech, as Army came in 2nd at 296.3 yards/game.
Not only does Army figure to be able to move the ball, but Houston’s offense will still be without star quarterback D’Erig King, who basically did it all for this team. King had just under 3,000 yards passing with a 36-6 TD-INT ratio. He was also second on the team with 674 rushing yards and his 14 rushing touchdowns were as many as the rest of the team had combined. Give me Army -5
|12-20-18||Marshall -3.5 v. South Florida||38-20||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
40* GASPARILLA BOWL ATS NO BRAINER (Marshall -3.5)
I think the fact that this game is being played on South Florida’s home field and they are a dog to a team from a perceived worse conference, tells you all you need to know. I'll gladly lay the small number with the Thundering Herd in a game I think they have a realistic shot at winning in a blowout.
I don’t think the poor finish to the season for the Bulls was any kind of fluke. If anything, I think it showed us just how much of a fluke their 7-0 start really was. In fact, if you look closer at the numbers, USF is lucky to even be in a bowl game. They were down 2 scores in the 4th quarter to both Tulsa and Illinois and somehow won both. They trailed 24-9 in the 1st quarter of a win over East Carolina. They were also outgained by almost 200 yards in a win over Georgia Tech, where they had two kick returns for a TD.
Let’s also not forget South Florida was expected to take a step back this year, as they only had 11 returning starters and had to replace one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in Quinton Flowers. Not to mention their two top rushers behind Flowers, who combined for over 1,800 yards and 18 scores.
The addition of Alabama transfer Blake Barnett did help ease the loss of Flowers, but he struggled to take care of the ball, throwing as many interceptions (11) as he did touchdowns (11). He might not even play due to a shoulder injury.
USF will also be going up against a tough Marshall defense. The Thundering Herd finished 23rd in total defense, giving up just 335.6 ypg. They were also exceptional against the run, allowing just 104 yards/game and a mere 2.9 yards/carry.
On the flip side of this, the South Florida defense was not very good at all this year. Opposing teams did as they pleased against them. More times than not, just running it down their throats, as the Bulls allowed 245 yards/game and 5 yards/carry against the run. Give me Marshall -3.5!
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||27-0||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRISCO BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR (San Diego St +3)
I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to San Diego State's poor finish to the regular-season. While a loss is a loss, the storyline for the Aztecs could be very different if a few breaks had gone their way. In their 1-4 finish to the season, all 4 losses came by single-digits with 3 decided by 4 or less.
I think Long will definitely use the underdog card to get his team fired up and I'm pretty confident they are the better team. Not to take anything away from Ohio's 8-wins this year, but the MAC is way down from what it's been in previous years. I wasn't all that impressed with this team in non-conference. They were 2-2 with the two wins coming against Howard and UMass. What really stood out to me is their defense, which gave up 38.3 ppg (at least 32 in all 4).
The Bobcats offense has carried this team. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and 471 ypg. Impressive, but again, I think it has a lot to with the easy schedule they have played. San Diego State has been a defensive force under Long. They gave up a mere 21.7 ppg this season and that was their highest mark in 5 years.
The big key here is that Ohio's offense is built on their running game. They come in averaging 262 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of the Aztecs' defense. San Diego State allowed a mere 94 yards/game and 2.7 yards/carry this season. There were 3 times Ohio failed to reach 150 rushing yards against a FBS opponent and they were 1-2 with a mere 1-point win at Kent State. They had 9 turnovers in those 3 games, compared to just 8 in their other 9 games combined. Give me San Diego State +3!
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois +113 v. UAB||13-37||Loss||-100||9 h 15 m||Show|
40* BOCA RATON BOWL MONEY LINE WINNER (N Illinois +113)
I just think the Huskies are the better team. Northern Illinois’ 8-5 record is extremely misleading because of their non-conference schedule. They played @ Iowa, hosted Utah, @ Florida State and @ BYU. They only lost by 11 at home to the Utes and upset BYU 7-6. They were a perfect 6-0 in MAC play before losing the final two games of the regular-season. What a lot of people will overlook is those two late losses came after they had already clinched a spot in the MAC title game.
UAB’s only big step-up game in non-conference was at Texas A&M late in the year, which they weren’t competitive in. While they did have a decent win at home against Tulane they also lost 47-24 to a Coastal Carolina team that finished the year 5-7 (2-6 Sun Belt). It’s also worth noting they didn’t have to play Marshall, FIU or FAU out of the East.
I know it’s a new year, but I also can’t not look at the two games the Blazers played against the MAC last year. They lost by 20-points to a Ball State team that finished the year 2-10. Then they got absolutely destroyed by Ohio in the bowl game.
As far as the matchup is concerned, I think Northern Illinois’ defense is going to dominate this game. UAB wants to run the football. They averaged 45 rush attempts compared to just 24 pass attempts. They averaged 209 rushing yards and just 191 passing yards (only completed 55.9%). The Huskies only gave up 110 rushing/yards game and 2.7 yards/carry, which is truly remarkable given the teams they played out of conference. They have an All-American defensive end in Sutton Smith, who led the country with 15 sacks.
I know the Northern Illinois offense isn’t great, but you have to keep in mind their offensive numbers are greatly skewed due to having to face Iowa, Florida State, BYU and Utah out of conference. They were much more efficient in conference play. I think they can score into the 20’s and I think that will be enough to get the win. Give me the Huskies!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||92 h 26 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -2.5)
I'll take my chances laying the short number with Indianapolis at home. I just think this is the right spot to play against the Cowboys, as I not only think they are getting way too much respect here on the road against a red-hot Colts team, but I also feel like this is a big time letdown spot for Dallas.
With that win over the Eagles the Cowboys all but locked up the NFC East. They not only have a 2-game lead over both the Eagles and Redskins, but they will also hold the tie breaker against both teams, meaning the only way Dallas doesn’t win the division is if they lose out and either Washington or Philadelphia win their final 3 games. I think it’s pretty safe to say the Redskins won’t be going 3-0 over the final 3 weeks with all the injuries they have been dealt and the Eagles are likely to lose at the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I actually think there’s a really good chance that the Cowboys lose this game and still end up waking up Monday as the NFC East winners.
There’s zero doubt in my mind that Dallas hasn’t played these scenarios out in their head, which is why I think it will be so difficult for them to show up here with the kind of mindset it will take to beat a team that’s playing as well as the Colts.
It’s also worth pointing out that Ezekiel Elliott is banged up and while he’s expected to play, I got a good feeling the Cowboys are going to limit his touches after he had 40 last week against the Eagles. Not to mention the Dallas offensive line could be without stud right guard Zack Martin, who is dealing with a knee injury.
The Colts don’t have the luxury of taking this game or any of their final 3 off. It’s unlikely Indianapolis will be able to catch the Texans in the AFC South and one of the Wild Card spots is going to either the Chiefs or Chargers, which means there’s only one spot up for grabs.
This has also historically been a great time to back the Colts, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games off an upset win as a road dog. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas is just 2-4 on the road compared to 6-1 at home. Cowboys are also a mere 3-11 ATS under head coach Jason Garrett when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Give me the Colts -2.5!
|12-16-18||Raiders v. Bengals -3||Top||16-30||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL LATE SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Bengals -3)
I believe the books have completely missed the mark here. I get the Bengals come in having lost 5 straight and have lost Andy Dalton, but there's no way they shouldn't be closer to a touchdown favorite against the Raiders.
Oakland threw in the towel on the 2018 season before the season even started. Sure they got up the last two weeks at home agains the Chiefs and Steelers. They hung around with KC and upset Pittsburgh. I think it sets up a huge flat spot against another struggling team, especially with a big rivalry game at home against the Broncos next week. Might be the last time those two teams face off in Oakland and potentially the game the Raiders will play in Oakland.
Cincinnati isn't getting near enough credit for how well they played last week at the Chargers. They lost 26-21 and had their chances to pull off the upset. I've liked what I've seen out of quarterback Jeff Driskel and a talented Bengals defensive front should have their way with a banged up Raiders offensive line. Give me Cincinnati -3!
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||17 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Packers +6)
I just can’t pass up getting almost a touchdown with Aaron Rodgers, especially with the Packers’ backs against the wall. As sweet as it would be for the Bears to clinch the NFC North on their home field against Green Bay after 4 straight seasons of finishing last in the division, I got a sneaky feeling that Rodgers is going to find some way to spoil Chicago’s celebration.
I was actually on the Packers last week in their blowout win against the Falcons, as I expected this team to respond in a real positive way to the firing of McCarthy. I think Rodgers was sick and tired of his play calling and just the overall effort was way better. There’s also just something about this team, when it’s a do-or-die situation, they always seem to find a way to win.
I get the Bears haven’t forgot about that Week 1 loss to the Packers, but this far from a must-win for Chicago and there’s a chance they come out flat off that emotional win at home last week against the Rams.
While the Bears were able to upset Los Angeles, the offense didn’t have the same look to it in Mitch Trubisky’s return to the lineup. I think there’s still some rust he has to shake off and this Green Bay defense is certainly capable of slowing him down.
I also want to point out how not so far fetched it is for Green Bay to make the playoffs. There’s 4 teams ahead of them for the final Wild Card. Three of those are the Eagles Panthers and Redskins. Carolina has to play the Saints and the Eagles visit the Rams this week, while Washington is a complete mess with Josh Johnson starting at quarterback. That leaves the Vikings, who are only 1-game ahead of them and Minnesota has not exactly been playing great football of late.
It’s also worth noting that Rodgers has absolutely owned the Bears in his career. Green Bay is 17-4 (15-6 ATS) in games that Rodgers starts against the Bears and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts at Soldier Field. Give me the Packers +6!
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||13-45||Loss||-110||74 h 32 m||Show|
40* NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS ATS NO-BRAINER (Middle Tenn +7)
I'll take my chances here with Middle Tennessee as they are a serious live dog in this one.
I just think there’s an art to getting a team to play well in a bowl game and clearly Scott Satterfield had something figured out. I just think him leaving for Louisville really throws a wrench into things and takes some of the focus off the actual game.
You got a defensive line coach that has to handle a job he’s not exactly prepared for and get his team ready in less than two weeks. There’s got to be some players thinking about transferring and I’m sure they are all checking in daily to see who they will get to replace Satterfield.
As far as the value is concerned with the number. Appalachian State started out the year 8-2 ATS, but they were overpriced in their two big games to end the year. They were a 12-point favorite in a 11-point win against Troy and favored by 18 in a 11-point win over Lafayette in title game. I just think 7-points is a lot to ask them to lay without their head coach against a team as talented as Middle Tennessee.
Not only were 3 of the 5 losses for the Blue Raiders true road games against SEC opponents, but their other two losses came by a combined 5-points. I just feel like a lot of people look at their 8-5 record and think they aren’t that great of a team coming out of Conference USA.
One of the big reasons I like them in this game is senior quarterback Brent Stockstill, who came into this season already the all-time leading passer in Middle Tennessee history. He completed 71% of his attempts for more than 3,200 yards and posted a 28-8 TD-INT ratio. He’s the son of the head coach and I have to think the entire team is going to play their hearts out to make sure his final game is one to remember. Give me the Blue Raiders +7!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||26 h 53 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3)
I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.
I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.
On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.
Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.
It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||67 h 33 m||Show|
50* NEW MEXICO BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (N Texas +8.5)
I like the value here with North Texas. I not only think they are good enough to cover more than a touchdown spread, I think they can win this game outright. This isn’t a knock on Utah State, as I was really high on that team coming into the year. I just think these are two evenly matched teams.
I also think North Texas might be the more motivated team in this one. The Mean Green, they have a chance here to do something no other team has done at North Texas in roughly 70 years, win 10 games in a single season. Not to mention the fact that they are still searching for that first bowl win under Littrell. Speaking of Littrell, he just turned down an offer to be the new head coach at Kansas State to stay with the program. I think that says a lot about how much he likes the team he has and you have to believe the players will want to show him he made the right decision to stick around.
As for Utah State, I think there’s a lot of factors working against them. They watched their head coach, Matt Wells, leave to take over the job at Texas Tech. He’s going to take with him several coaches, including both the Aggies offensive and defensive coordinator. While some of the assistants will stick around for the bowl, I just think it’s a lot of distractions to deal with.
Keep in mind that Utah State couldn’t have ended the year on a much worse note. The Aggies only loss in Mountain West play was a costly one and it came in their very last game of the regular season. The Aggies were a perfect 7-0 in MWC play until they fell 33-24 at Boise State on Nov. 24. That knocked them out of the MWC title game, which is what this team had their hearts set on playing in.
More times than not, teams who suffer a devastating loss to end their season, have a really hard time showing up in their bowl game. I think it will be that much harder without their head coach and the fact that they are playing in what’s viewed as a pretty meaningless bowl game against a team they are expected to have no problem beating.
Another big thing here for me is the North Texas quarterback. Junior Mason Fine is one of the best kept secrets in the country. Fine completed 65% of his 457 attempts for 3,734 yards with 27 touchdowns to a mere 5 interceptions. He threw for 4,052 yards with a 31-15 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore.
While Fine is a big reason for their success, he’s got some playmakers working alongside him. Running back DeAndre Torrey has just 942 yards, but is averaging 5.9 yards/carry and has 14 rushing touchdowns. Rico Bussey Jr. has hauled in 68 passes for 1,017 yards and 12 scores. Jalen Guyton has 50 receptions for 702 yards and 5 scores and Jaelon Darden has caught 46 for 567 and 4 scores.
I think the fact that the Mountain West is viewed as a much stronger conference than C-USA and the fact that Utah State nearly won at Michigan State in non-conference play, is a big reason why this line is so high. I get Arkansas was one of the worst teams in the SEC, but North Texas whooped them 44-17 in Fayetteville. Give me the Mean Green +8.5!
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||29-28||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City as a short home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs dominated this series with 9 straight wins over the Chargers, but they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring teams by 14.0 ppg.
I just think the Chargers are getting a lot of love because of there being just a 1-game difference in the record for these two teams. Prior to their 3-point win over the Ravens, all 5 of the Chiefs previous home wins had come by at least a touchdown and they really dominated in all of those games.
I just think the percentages here are greatly in favor of Kansas City winning this game. Not only is it going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead for a prime time game, but I can’t stress enough how difficult it is for the road team in these Thursday games. It’s really hard on the defenses and I think that’s where it really plays into the Chiefs favor, as they got arguably the most explosive offensive in the league right now.
As for the Chiefs defense, they are expected to get back the heart and soul of that unit in former All-Pro safety Eric Berry. It’s completely up in the air just how good Berry will be, as he hasn’t seen the field since Week 1 of last season, but I can assure you the energy in the stadium will be different with him on the field.
Another huge factor here is how banged up the Chargers are at running back. Melvin Gordon and backup Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. With the way Kansas City can get after the quarterback with their pass rush, you got no chance against that defense if you don’t make them respect the run. I know the run defense for KC isn’t great, but that’s definitely one area where Berry figures to have a huge impact right away.
It’s also worth pointing out that Philip Rivers has simply not played well against the Chiefs. He’s 2-9 as a starter against Kansas City (3-8 ATS) and the numbers are down across the board. He actually had one of his better games against the Chiefs in Week 1, as he threw for 424 yards and 3 scores. However, the Chargers offense only had 12 points going into the 4th quarter.
Another thing that I think is worth mentioning, is KC beat the Chargers in Week 1 without a big game from Kareem Hunt, who had just 49 yards rushing and didn’t catch a pass. Mahomes did as he pleased, throwing for 256 and 4 touchdowns. Expect more of the same from the likely league MVP. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-10-18||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||7-21||Loss||-100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Vikings +3)
No disrespect to Seattle, but I just don’t think this team is the real deal. They have been very fortunate in a number of games and outside of their two games against the Rams, they really haven’t played anyone. The only team they have beat that currently has a winning record is the Cowboys and that was way back in Week 3 when Dallas was lost offensively.
Their 43-16 win over the 49ers looks great if you just focus on the final score, but they let Nick Mullens complete 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores. In their previous win at Carolina, they were outgained by the Panthers 476-397 and that was more of the Panthers beating themselves than anything. Even the game before that, where they beat the Packers 27-24 at home, they trailed 14-3 early and were down 4 late in the 4th quarter.
As for Minnesota, I think now is the time to jump on the Vikings after that ugly loss at New England. I think people are overreacting to that game. A lot of teams go to Foxboro in December and don’t play well. The Vikings only other two losses since Week 4 are a loss at home to the Saints and a loss at Chicago.
I also like the matchup here. I think Seattle’s defense can be exposed and they come in ranked just 17th against the run (116.8 ypg) and 18th vs the pass (266.5 ypg). On the flip side of this, the Seahawks offense is all about their running game, which leads the league at 148.8 ypg. The Vikings aren’t a team you want to line up against and try to pound the rock. Minnesota is 7th at stopping the run, giving up only 99.2 ypg and 3.7 yards/carry. Vikings are also 10th vs the pass, so don’t expect Russell Wilson to save the day.
History is also on our side, as you don’t want to be betting on the Seahawks off a big win. Seattle is a mere 4-17 ATS in their last 21 off a win over a division rival by 21 or more and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games when off a win by 21 or more against any opponent.
Minnesota is 20-8 ATS under Mike Zimmer when coming off a loss and 14-4 ATS when that previous loss was on the road. Give me the Vikings +3!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys||23-29||Loss||-115||25 h 36 m||Show|
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SLAUGHTER (Eagles +3.5)
Even though the Eagles have burned me on multiple occasions this season, I'm grabbing the points with Philadelphia. This is just one of those games that I don’t see being decided until the 4th quarter and that makes the 3.5-points that much more valuable. It wouldn’t surprised me at all if this thing came down to a field goal in the final minutes. Keep in mind it was 20-20 with less than 4 minutes to play in the first meeting between these two teams.
I know there’s a lot of excitement right now with the Cowboys and their 4-game winning streak, but I’ve still got major concerns with the offense. It just relies so much on the running game that they are going to constantly find themselves in close games. All 4 wins during this streak have come by 8-points or less.
As for the Eagles, I think there’s some legit signs that this team could be getting ready to peak offensively. The run game has been greatly improved since they started giving rookie Josh Adams the bulk of the carries. They also just recently got back Darren Sproles, who I think is going to be huge coming out of the backfield to negate all that pressure Dallas likes to bring. Wide out Golden Tate, who they acquired in a trade is also coming off his best game, catching 7 passes for 85 yards and a score.
I know it hasn’t been up to the ridiculous level that he was playing at prior to getting hurt last year, but I like Carson Wentz to deliver in the big game and there’s not been a bigger game to date for Philadelphia than this one. That’s another thing. Dallas is coming off a massive upset win at home and those are the type of games that are tough to bounce back from.
Unlike the Eagles, their backs aren’t up against the wall and it’s not easy beating a team from your same division twice in one year (Dallas won 27-20 in WK 10). In fact, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the same team in this series won both games during the regular-season.
It’s also worth pointing out just how dominant the road team has been at covering the spread. In the last 14 meetings the road team is 11-3 ATS. Philadelphia is also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games when revenging a same season loss. Give me the Eagles +3.5!
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs -6||24-27||Loss||-115||21 h 28 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Chiefs -6)
Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, where they have outscored opponents by 16.2 points/game. That’s not just the result of a couple blowouts either. All 5 of the Chiefs wins at home have come by at least a touchdown.
I don’t think it’s going to be any different against the Ravens, who I think are a bit overvalued right now. Not to take anything away from Lamar Jackson and his 3-0 record as a starter, but it’s come against teams who are out of the playoff race in the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons.
I also think we are getting a good price on the Chiefs here due to the fact that they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. There’s also going to be those that think the Ravens have a shot here because of their defense. They were saying the same thing when the Jaguars came to Kansas City back in Week 5 and the Chiefs did whatever they wanted in a 30-14 victory.
I also think there’s some doubters out there with KC now that they no longer have Kareem Hunt. I’m not going to say they are better without him, but I also don’t think his absence is that big a deal with this team. As long as they have a healthy Patrick Mahomes and all those weapons on the outside, defenses will have no choice but to respect the pass and that’s going to allow for whoever runs to pick up big yards.
The Chiefs rushed for 174 yards in their first game without Hunt, which was their best mark since Week 7 and second highest total of the season. The offense has also played the last few games without wideout Sammy Watkins, but he’s back practicing and expected to suit up.
As for the defense, I think the Chiefs are more than capable of slowing down the Ravens offense. While Kansas City is giving up 27.2 ppg, they are only allowing 17.6 ppg at home. That stop unit really feeds off the home crowd, which I think is the best in the league when this team is playing well.
I actually think it works in Kansas City’s favor that Jackson is getting the start, because I don’t think you can beat this team without being able to throw the football effectively. Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards in any start and has just 1 TD pass to 3 interceptions. If Baltimore’s defense struggles at all against that KC offense early, things could spiral out of control if the Chiefs get a double-digit lead and the Ravens are forced to throw more than they would like.
Chiefs are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs a team from the AFC and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a wining record. Ravens on the other hand have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. Give me Kansas City -6!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers -4||20-34||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Packers -4)
I'll take my chances with Green Bay covering the short number here at home against the Falcons. A big reason for that is the fact that they fired McCarthy. A move I completely agree with given how this team has underperformed.
It just feels like anytime a head coach gets fired in the middle of the season, they come out and play one of their best games the next time they take the field. I think some of that is they feel responsible for their coach losing his job and they also realize their jobs are no longer safe, so there’s an urgency to perform well.
I also think that as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting and the Packers are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, they are going to keep fighting. This team has been in this spot before with their backs against the wall and delivered, so they have no reason to not go out without a fight.
Another thing for me is I think this Atlanta's offense is broken right now. The Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark in any of their last 4 games. They have absolutely zero threat of a running game right now (52.8 ypg last 4) and last week against the Ravens were held to just 97 passing yards. I think offensive coordinator Greg Sarkisian is on his final straw and the bigger issue is the Falcons can’t protect Ryan. He’s been sacked 36 times in 12 games (previous high for a season is 44).
I personally have a hard time seeing them snapping out of that funk in this one. I just don’t like these dome teams playing on the road late in the year. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the mid to low 20s. That’s no fun to play in, especially for a team that’s not use to it and one that really has nothing to play for.
I know the Packers just lost as a big home favorite, but they are still 25-13 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback when the game is played at Lambeau Field and 23-13 in his last 36 as a home favorite.
Green Bay has also compiled an impressive 62-39 ATS record over the final 4 weeks of the regular season and are 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me the Packers -4!
|12-08-18||Navy +8 v. Army||Top||10-17||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
50* ARMY/NAVY VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Navy +8)
I'll gladly grab the touchdown plus with the Midshipmen. I just think this is too many points to pass up in a game that figures to be low scoring. I know the records are miles apart, but I don’t think there’s as big a gap in talent as a lot of people think.
I think a lot of people are going to fall into the trap of overreacting to the fact that Army’s only two losses were true road games against Duke and Oklahoma (lost in OT 28-21). The rest of their resume isn’t anything to get excited about and they easily could have lost a few more than they did.
Navy played the much tougher schedule and I think the Midshipmen showed some positives down the stretch. They went on the road and gave UCF a scare, losing by a final score of 35-24. They then knocked off Tulsa at home and nearly had that epic comeback last time out at Tulane.
I also think the roles are reversed here. Army has been the big underdog in this series for nearly two decades and now they are favored for the first since 2001. Underdog has covered the spread in this game 6 of the last 7 years and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we get our third straight underdog to win the game outright.
A lot of people are going to point to Navy’s defense as the big weakness that will allow the Black Knights to get the win and cover, but Army is a mere 11-25 ATS in there last 36 games vs teams who allow 34 or more points/game. Black Knights are also just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team with a losing record. Midshipmen are an impressive 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Give me Navy +8!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* TITANS/JAGUARS TNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Titans -5)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans at home, as there’s nothing about the Jags upset win over the Colts that makes me think it’s a sign of things to come.
The reality here is the Jaguars had no business winning a game where they totaled just 211 yards and 6 points. Had the Colts just kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th down, they likely win the game outright. I also think Indianapolis’ offense is a bit out of sync with the injury to starting center Ryan Kelly, but either way they should have won that game.
I get that enough is enough for the Jaguars and wanting to go a different direction than Blake Bortles, but Cody Kessler is a downgrade at the position. Jacksonville is also running an out-dated offense with lackluster weapons outside of running back Leonard Fournette.
I just think given how hard it was for Jacksonville to get 1st downs at home against a mediocre Colts defense, they are going to have a horrible time putting up points against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee comes in ranked 3rd in the NFL, giving up just 315.6 ypg and are 6th in scoring defense, allowing only 20.4 ppg.
Let’s not forget when these two teams met up in Week 3, the Titans held Jacksonville to just 232 total yards and 12 first downs. Jags were without Fournette, but I don’t think he makes a huge difference with how little the Tennessee defense is going to have to respect the passing game with Kessler at quarterback.
You also can’t ignore just how big an advantage the home team has in these Thursday Night Games. These games are brutal on the road team and given how the Jags are basically playing for just pride with a 4-8 record, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they didn’t show up at all for this game. Either way, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown and not a field goal.
Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS last 17 home games, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jags are just 1-5-2 ATS last 8 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games on the road. Give me the Titans -5!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* REDSKINS/EAGLES MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Redskins +6)
I get the Eagles were able to rally to beat the Giants and all the talk is about how that win might have saved their season. I’m more focused on the fact that they let New York come into their house and take a 19-3 lead in a game they absolutely had to have.
I just think because the Eagles won it all last year and everyone thought they were going to be this juggernaut and defend their title, we are quick to look for any positive we can and ride with it. I mean they are almost a touchdown favorite at home with a record of 5-6 and having just failed to cover almost the exact same number at home last week against a worst team than the one they are playing.
The public has continued to back the Eagles to this point, so chances are they won’t stop now, especially with Washington playing now without Alex Smith. I like Smith and think he can help a team win a lot of regular-season games, but I don’t think he’s light years better than Colt McCoy.
McCoy did struggle some against Dallas, but that’s a really good Cowboys defense. The Eagles simply aren’t that good of a defensive team. They come in ranked 28th against the pass (294.4 ypg) and are giving up a ridiculous 134.6 rushing yards/game over their last 6 contests. I think Adrian Peterson will be ready to rock on Monday Night Football and Washington will be able to put up some points.
On the flip side of this, I think the Redskins defense is more than capable of slowing down this Eagles offensive attack. Philadelphia’s two highest scoring games this season have both come against the Giants. They haven’t scored more than 24 in any other game and 7 times have failed to score more than 21 points.
I think there’s a really good shot Washington can at worst keep this within 6-points. In fact, I think they are going to pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me the Redskins +6.
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-02-18||Panthers -3 v. Bucs||17-24||Loss||-125||91 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers -3)
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|12-01-18||Fresno State -105 v. Boise State||19-16||Win||100||29 h 41 m||Show|
40* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC TITLE GAME WINNER (Fresno St -105)
I'm going to take the Bulldogs on the money line in the MWC Title game against the Broncos.
The public is all over Boise State and I'm not the least bit surprised, seeing how they won the regular-season meeting at home and are basically a pick’em in the rematch. That only makes me like Fresno State that much more, as it just feels like the books are begging for you to take the Broncos (line keeps moving opposite of the public).
What a lot of people will overlook in Boise State’s 24-17 win at home over the Bulldogs back in early November is Fresno State had complete control of that game early. The Bulldogs had a 17-3 lead but Boise State scored touchdowns on each of their first 3 drives to start the 2nd half and that was all she wrote.
A lot of things went right for Boise State, as they converted on 10 of 16 3rd downs. A lot of those came on scrambles by quarterback Brett Rypien. My money is on Fresno State making the proper adjustments and getting off the field and allowing their offense a few more chances. I also think there’s a good possibility that the Bulldogs go better than 20% (2 of 10) on their 3rd down attempts.
I also think there’s a bit of an advantage here for Fresno State in that they have had the West Division locked up for a while and Boise State had to just lay everything on the line just to make it to this game. Revenge is a beautiful motivator in college football and I believe the Bulldogs are going to be celebrating a conference title on the blue turf this Saturday.
Fresno State is a 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog (2-pt favorite at Boise). Broncos are also just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games at home, so that blue turf hasn’t been all that much help at covering the number. Give me Bulldogs!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||Top||41-56||Loss||-115||70 h 6 m||Show|
50* NCAAF CONF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Memphis +3.5)
I’m going to take the Memphis Tigers +3.5 over the UCF Knights in the AAC Title game. I was already leaning toward taking the Tigers in this game prior to the injury to McKenzie Milton, so no way am I not taking Memphis as a dog without him on the field.
I have zero doubt that the Knights are going to play their hearts out in honor of Milton, but I don’t think they will be any more motivated than the Tigers. Memphis has has lost 7 games the last two seasons combined and 3 of them are against UCF.None more excruciating than the 31-30 home loss earlier this season, where they had a 30-14 lead, didn’t score in the 2nd half and botched the clock when they were driving for a potential game-winning field goal.
Sometimes teams can lose their edge when an opponent loses a player like Milton, but that’s not going to happen with the revenge that Memphis is playing with and a conference title on the line. They certainly didn’t let it affect them last week when they took on Houston without their star quarterback D’Eriq King.
I know there’s more to the Knights than Milton, but there’s no arguing the quarterback is the most important position on the field. When you go from a Heisman contender under center to a backup with little experience, more times than not things aren’t going to go well.
Darriel Mack Jr. will get the nod and he did start the win over ECU earlier this year and played the 2nd half last week against the Bulls. He’s arguably a better runner than Milton, but he’s only completed 49% of his pass attempts and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in 43 attempts.
Keep in mind that’s against two pretty bad defenses in USF and East Carolina, so hard to expect things to magically get better against MemphisI just don’t think the UCF defense will be able to hold up and you can count on the Tigers looking to score every time they touch the ball after blowing that big lead to UCF earlier this season.
I also think this Tigers team is riding a massive wave of momentum. It would have been easy for this team to just go through the motions after starting 1-3 in league play, but they rallied the troops and can win a title and finally put an end to this UCF winning streak.Give me the Tigers +3.5!
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5||30-29||Loss||-103||9 h 56 m||Show|
40* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ATS NO-BRAINER (Buffalo -3.5)
I'll take my chances with the Bulls here, even though the public is pounding them. I just think Buffalo is hands down the more talented team and that’s no disrespect to Northern Illinois. I think the numbers really speak for themselves. They remind me a lot of FAU last year in terms of how the books could just never catchup to them.
Buffalo outscored opponents in conference play by 10.9 ppg and outgained them by 88.1 ypg. Northern Illinois outscored opponents by 5.3 ppg and outgained them by 38 ypg. Some might want to point to that ugly loss for the Bulls down the stretch to Ohio (who lost to Northern Illinois), but note that the Bulls were in a position to lose that game and still win the division in a very favorable matchup with Bowling Green.
The biggest thing for me is I just don’t think Northern Illinois’ offense can keep pace in this one. Buffalo has shown they are capable of annihilating defenses if they aren’t ready. They got a special player in junior quarter back Tyree Jackson and a potent 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, who have combined for 1,607 yards and 23 touchdowns (Jackson also has 7 rushing touchdowns).
It’s going to take a perfect game-plan here for the Huskies just to keep this game competitive. I also think people are sleeping on Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold and his ability to guide his team to victory in big games. The guy went 109-6 in 8 years at Div III power Wisconsin-Whitewater, playing for the national championship in 7 of those 8 years and winning it 6 times.
Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against MAC opponent, while Northern Illinois is a mere 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral site and 0-6 ATS in their 6 games under head coach Rod Carey as a neutral site underdog. Give me the Bulls -3.5!
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* TITANS/TEXANS MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Texans -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Houston to win by 4 or more at home against the Titans. I know the Texans keep finding themselves in close games, which might have some thinking to take the points, but I just can't stomach betting an offense like Tennessee on the road in a prime time game against a defense as talented as the Texans.
What this line suggest is that these two would be a pick'em if the game was played on a neutral field. I have Houston rated way ahead of the Titans, as I think the days of consistently winning games with your defense are numbered. Tennessee has two games this year where they failed to reach 85 yards passing. They had just 176 last week at Indy and that's not a top-tier secondary.
Houston comes in 13th against the pass and are 6th against the run. While they scored 20 in the previous meeting between these two teams back in Week 2, they scored on a 66-yard pass on a fake punt and had just 283 total yards for the game (Houston had 437). Titans only averaging 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg on the road.
Houston is averaging 25.7 ppg and 383 ypg at home. I just think they will have the much easier time scoring and there's a much higher chance they win by a touchdown than lose or win by 3 or less. Give me the Texans!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-25-18||Raiders v. Ravens -10.5||17-34||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -10.5)
I know laying big numbers in the NFL isn't a good recipe for success, but the more I look into this game the more I like Baltimore to win here in a blowout. I just don't think it's asking the Ravens that much to win here by two touchdowns.
Oakland maybe it pretty clear that they weren't interested in winning games this year, when they traded Mack right before the season started. That was just the start, as they later traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Sure they won at Arizona last week, but needed a last-second field goal to do so. The two previous games they were outscored 54-9.
This team had to pull Derek Carr a few weeks ago on MNF against the 49ers because the o-line couldn't block. Baltimore's defensive front is every bit as nasty and strong as SF, so I have a really hard time seeing the Raiders putting together too many scoring drives.
On the flip side of this, the Ravens have Lamar Jackson at quarterback, who made his debut last week against the Bengals. Jackson rushed for 119 yards and threw for 150 on 13 of 19 passing. He wasn't just a force on the ground, but Baltimore as a team put up 267 yards rushing, averaging 5 yards/rush.
I got my concerns with Jackson, as you can only run for so long at the QB position. Good defenses are going to make you pay for running it and also not let you out of the pocket. Lucky for Jackson, Oakland is not a good defense and are 31st in the league vs the run, allowing 142.3 ypg. I think Ravens break a bunch of big TD runs and blow this thing wide-open. Give me Baltimore -10.5!
|11-24-18||LSU v. Texas A&M -3||72-74||Loss||-115||29 h 48 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies laying just a field goal at home against the Tigers. I just think there's a huge home field edge here for Texas A&M and that's only magnified by this being a prime time game under the lights at Kyle Field. Not to mention the line really says it all here with the No. 7 ranked team in the country listed as a dog.
The Aggies only home loss this season came at the hands of Clemson in a crushing 28-26 defeat. I think there's a lot of motivation for this team to finish strong and really build on what's been a positive first year under Jimbo Fisher. I just don't know that this game means as much for LSU, who really has nothing to play for at 9-2.
The even bigger factor here for me is the matchup. LSU is very limited offensively and really need to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field. That's not going to be easy against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 2nd in the nation against the run, giving up just 80.8 yards/game. It's no fluke, as they held Clemson to 115 yards, Alabama to 109, Benny Snell and Kentucky to 70 and Auburn a few weeks back to just 19.
As far as the Aggies offense is concerned, they have faced a bunch of elite defenses and been able to put points on the board. I just don't see LSU being able to keep pace. Give me Texas A&M -3!
|11-24-18||Kentucky -16.5 v. Louisville||Top||56-10||Win||100||28 h 30 m||Show|
50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -16.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats in this clash with in-state rival Louisville. I played against Kentucky in that first game after the devastating loss to Georgia and they to no surprise lost the game outright. Just a really horrible spot for a team going from playing for a spot in their conference title game to just having to finish out the season. They slopped it up against last week against Middle Tennessee, but I think we are going to see Kentucky revert back to that early season form against the Cardinals.
If you check the quotes of these Kentucky players, they haven't forgot about that ugly 44-17 defeat Louisville put on them last year. Star running back Benn Snell was quoted saying "I've still got a bad taste in my mouth from last year"
I just don't know what makes anyone think Louisville is going to magically figure this out. You typically see teams play well and with a lot of fight in the first game after their head coach was fired. Louisville went out and lost at home to a pretty average NC State by 42 points. With how atrocious the Cardinals are defensively and how dominant Kentucky is on the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats should have zero problem turning this into a blowout and covering the spread. Give me Kentucky -16.5!
|11-24-18||NC State v. North Carolina +7.5||34-28||Win||100||21 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD UNDERDOG SHOCKER (UNC +7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Tar Heels as 7.5-point home dog against the Wolfpack. I just think this number is a reflection of NC State coming into this game at 7-3 and UNC being at 2-8. I just don't think there's that big a gap between these two teams right now, as this line suggest NC State would be more than a double-digit favorite on a neutral site.
This was just a tough year for the Tar Heels, who had all those suspensions early on and a bunch of really tough losses. I just think that while they are a 2-win team on paper, they are closer to a 6-win team in terms of talent and honesty I think this should be closer to a pick'em. NC State has been overvalued since their 5-0 start and we saw some of that in a 4-point loss at home to WaKe Forest as a 18.5-point favorite.
You also have to factor in the motivation here for UNC. They have lost the last two in the series and there's some rumblings that a loss here might cost head coach Larry Fedora his job. Add in this being senior night and this team needing some kind of motivation going into next year and I really like the home dog win this one outright. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5!
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||38-10||Loss||-110||7 h 8 m||Show|
40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (S Florida +14.5)
I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than two touchdowns at home. As hard as it is to bet against the Knights, I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying on the road.
I know USF is coming into this game not exactly playing well, but there are some positives mixed in their 4-game losing streak. They only trailed Houston by 7-points going into the 4th quarter of what turned out to be 21-point loss. They were only outgained by 2-yards in a shocking 41-15 loss at home to Tulane and had 2nd half leads in their last two defeats to Cincinnati and Temple. While the schedule was easy, you don’t go 7-0 without some decent talent and one of those wins was against a Georgia Tech team that is sitting at 7-4 (5-3 ACC).
No question this one was going to mean something a little more after losing that big game to UCF last year, but there’s that much more incentive for USF to lay it all on the line with the Knights perfect record on the line. No better revenge for the Bulls than snapping Central Florida’s 23-game winning streak.
I also think it’s pretty clear that the only way you are competing with the Knights is if you put points on the scoreboard. I think USF is definitely capable of doing that. They come in averaging 31.2 ppg and 458 ypg. I also think it’s worth looking back to an earlier road game for UCF at Memphis, where they were only a 4.5-point favorite. Not only did the Tigers cover as a mere 4.5-point dog, they should have won the game (led 30-14).
The fact USF is a 14.5-point home dog, says the Tigers would be a 10-point favorite over the Bulls on a neutral field. No way is that legit. I think it’s a clear indication of how inflated this line is. The most important thing to remember is you aren’t betting who will win, all we need is for South Florida to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Bulls +14.5!
|11-23-18||East Carolina +19.5 v. Cincinnati||6-56||Loss||-110||46 h 45 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina +19.5)I'll take my chances with East Carolina covering the big spread against Cincinnati. I think the public perception here will be that Bearcats will be motivated to play their final home games and celebrate senior day, while the Pirates are a team just going through the motions with no shot at reaching bowl eligibility.That very well could be true, but I think it’s the exact opposite. I think East Carolina is going to come out and play hard against a top team in the conference. As for Cincinnati, I don’t think they want anything to do with this game. That wasn’t just another game for the Bearcats last week against UCF. They went into that game with the belief they were going to pull off the upset and not only snap the Knights perfect record, but overtake them for the top spot in the AAC East. For them to lose the way they did, getting completely man-handled in a 38-13 loss, that’s as demoralizing as it gets.There’s really no incentive for Cincinnati in this game. It would be hard to bounce in this spot against any opponent, but I think it’s that much harder against a bad team like ECU.Adding to this, I think when a team is in a spot like this, where they aren’t motivated to play, it really shows up on the defensive side of the ball, as so much of defense is effort and energy. Defense is what has led to this great season for Cincinnati and I think they not only are in danger of not covering this big spread, but I could definitely see them losing outright.For those that haven’t been keeping up with Pirates football, East Carolina has one of the best true freshman quarterbacks that no one knows about in Holton Ahlers. He really didn’t get serious snaps until their 6th game against Houston. Up to that point he had been used basically as a wildcat option. He’s shown he can do more than just run. In a stretch of 3 games, he threw for 406 yards against UCF, 449 yards against Memphis and 360 against Tulane. He’s got an 11-2 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 571 (5.2 yards/carry) and 6 scores. I think he can make enough plays to at least keep ECU within the number. Give me the Pirates +19.5!
|11-23-18||Virginia -4.5 v. Virginia Tech||Top||31-34||Loss||-107||6 h 15 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Virginia -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Virginia putting an end to the losing streak against their in-state rivals and covering this small number on the road. The Cavaliers haven't beat the Hokies since they won 35-21 at home way back in 2003. Virginia Tech has won 14 straight, but this is not your typical Hokies team.
This season took a turn for the worse when starting quarterback Josh Jackson went down, then things really got ugly when the injuries started to pile up on a young and inexperienced defense. It's that Hokies defense that makes me extremely confident the Cavaliers can go into Blacksburg and get the win.
Virginia Tech is giving up 40.3 ppg and 463 ypg (7.4 yards/play) over their last 3 games. They just gave up 38 points to a Miami team that was having all kinds of problems scoring. Virginia has scored at least 27 in 4 of their last 5 and I think they have no problem eclipsing 30 here (Hokies allowing 36 ppg at home).
While the Cavaliers are piling on the points, I look for the Virginia Tech offense to have a hard time keeping pace against a very talented Virginia defense that is holding their opponents a touchdown below their scoring average on the season. Give me the Cavaliers -4.5!
|11-22-18||Mississippi State -12.5 v. Ole Miss||35-3||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EGG BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Miss St -12.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the big number against the Rebels on Thanksgiving. I'm sure a lot of people will be quick to point out the fact that the last two years the outright winner has been a double-digit dog. However, I think that trends comes to an end, as I see this getting out of hand. Mississippi State will be out for revenge and any thoughts of this team throwing in the towel after that loss at Alabama, were thrown out the window in last week's 52-6 win against Arkansas. For me, I just think this Bulldogs defense is one of the best in the country and will be able to shutdown this Ole Miss offense. On the flip side of this, I think the Mississippi State offense is starting to come alive and should be able to move the ball at will against this awful Rebels defense. Give me the Bulldogs -12.5!
|11-22-18||Bears -2.5 v. Lions||Top||23-16||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|11-19-18||Chiefs +3 v. Rams||51-54||Push||0||9 h 32 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/RAMS MNF ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs +3)
I think the biggest misconception here is that the Chiefs are the only team with a bad defense, when you could argue that the Rams are every bit as bad. Los Angeles went out an added all these big names to their defense and then proceeded to hold the Raiders to 13 points in Week 1 and shutout the Cardinals in Week 2. The public saw those two results as confirmation to their belief that the Rams were this great defensive team. Turns out it was more of just Oakland and Arizona being bad offensive teams.
They have not performed well when matched up against good offensive teams and while they have played some good offenses to this point, they haven’t seen anything like what this Chiefs offense brings to the table. The closest thing would be the Saints and New Orleans put up 45 on them and won by 10. Not to mention the Chiefs are expected to get back wide out Sammy Watkins.
While KC is adding a piece back to their offense, the Rams are going to have to learn to adjust to life without wide out Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in last week’s win over Seattle. While Kupp is third in receptions behind Cooks and Woods, he leads the team with 6 touchdowns and behind only Gurley in yards after the catch.
I just don’t think people understand how valuable he is to that offense. He’s like your Wes Welker of old Patriots’ offenses. He’s one guy you really had to account for and now that’s one more guy on defense focusing on stopping Todd Gurley.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Chiefs defense, but they have been playing better as the season progresses. They have been getting a lot more production out of their young guys and have one of the best pass rushes in the game. Dee Ford is putting up ridiculous numbers and Justin Houston returned last week and made a big impact. Not to mention defensive end Chris Jones has a sack in 6 straight games. If they can put together a game-plan to simply slow Gurley down, they might just turn this thing into a blowout. Give me the Chiefs +3!
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-120||29 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Eagles +9)
I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction on both sides. I think a lot of those people that backing the Eagles and believed they would turn this thing around, gave up after the ugly home loss to Dallas. On the flip side, the perception on the Saints couldn’t be higher. In game where they were suppose to struggle, they won by 37 on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have covered 7 straight. Those that have been riding New Orleans and there’s a lot of them, won’t be jumping off the bandwagon.
I think it forced the books to set a very favorable line for the Eagles. I’m not saying Philadelphia will win this game, but it’s hard to not like them to at least make it competitive and keep it within a touchdown. Keep in mind we are talking about an Eagles team that hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown all season. A lot of people ignore how close this team is to being right there with the other top teams in the NFC.
Another crazy thing with this team is this marks the first time this season that they will be an underdog at kickoff. If you remember back to last year, it was the underdog role that brought this team together, as everyone wrote them off after the Wentz injury. I mean this is it for the Eagles. They lose this game and fall to 4-6, they would basically have to win out to have a shot and they know it. I know everyone to this point has been jacked up to face defending champs, but at some point the Saints are going to lay an egg and this might just be that spot.
New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has guided his team to a mere 15-25 ATS record when playing teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. Saints are also just 4-12 ATS under Payton when playing at home after a game where they posted a +2 turnover margin or better. Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs strong passing teams (avg. 235+ ypg) and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the second half of the season vs teams scoring 29 or more points/game. Give me Philadelphia +9!
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||26 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)
I'll take my chances with the Colts at basically a pick'em. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots.
I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady.
I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race.
I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career.
There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg.
Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -1!
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-100||26 h 40 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3)
I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.
Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.
I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.
It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.
The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.
With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!
|11-17-18||Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||3-36||Loss||-110||20 h 44 m||Show|
50* NCAAF NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Syracuse +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Orange as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I really like what Dino Babers has done at Syracuse and I just don't think the experts give this team enough respect. They want to discredit them for their lack of quality wins. Their best win is probably a home victory against NC State. With that said, they had Clemson on the ropes and that was with Lawrence under center. They only lost by 4-points on the road. Their other loss is a mere 7-point loss at Pitt the very next week after that heartbreaking loss to the Tigers. While these are two ranked teams, all the pressure is on Notre Dame, who needs just a win here and a win at USC to lock up a spot in the playoffs. Syracuse has nothing to lose and everything to gain, as this would be another huge win for this program. I just think they got the talent to slow that Notre Dame offense down, which hasn't exactly had continuity at the quarterback position of late. I'm willing to be the offense does enough to keep this within single-digits and maybe even win outright. Give me Syracuse +10.5!
|11-17-18||Utah v. Colorado +7.5||30-7||Loss||-124||19 h 40 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Colorado +7.5)
|11-17-18||Northwestern v. Minnesota -2.5||24-14||Loss||-105||17 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Minnesota -2.5)
|11-17-18||Michigan State v. Nebraska +100||Top||6-9||Win||100||17 h 21 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH (Nebraska +100)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Nebraska at a pick'em on their home field against Michigan State. I just think this one will mean a lot more to the Cornhuskers. Last week's huge showdown with Ohio State was the climax of Michigan State's season. They desperately wanted to defend their home field and ruin any hope the Buckeyes had of making the 4-team playoff. I just think it's hard to go from a game of that magnitude to playing on the road against a team that is 3-7 and no real incentive to win. I get Nebraska doesn't have a shot at a bowl, but because they started out so poorly, I think they are extremely motivated to finish this first year under Scott Frost off with a bang. You wouldn't know by how optimistic the fan base is that this team was 3-7. Expect a rowdy crowd and a win for Nebraska on Saturday. Give me the Cornhuskers +100!
|11-17-18||TCU v. Baylor +1||16-9||Loss||-105||17 h 19 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK (Baylor +1)
I'll take my chances here with Baylor at basically a pick'em at home against TCU. I think the only thing keeping the Bears from being a bigger favorite, is the fact that TCU comes in at 4-6 and would need to win their final two games to make a bowl. This team has won 11 or more 3 of the last 4 years, fighting for a meaningless bowl game isn't that important to them. Not to mention, they have shown absolutely nothing on the field to make you believe they are going to turn things around. Baylor is in just year two under Matt Rhule and won just one game all of last year. Getting back to a bowl would mean a lot for this program and I expect this team to lay it all on the line. That should be more than enough for them to secure a win on their home field. Give me Baylor +1!
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -4||38-41||Loss||-108||11 h 41 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (North Texas -4)
While the Owls do still need 1-more win to get bowl eligible, they got a home game against Charlotte on deck to secure it. I’m not saying they aren’t going to show for this game, I just don’t think they will be as motivated for this contest as North Texas.
This is a bit of a revenge game for the Mean Green, as FAU defeated them in last year’s C-USA Championship Game. In fact, the Owls handed North Texas their only two losses in conference play all of last year. Florida Atlantic outscored the Mean Green 110-48 in those two games.
I would be shocked if a team that returned 52 lettermen and 17 starters didn’t have this game circled as soon as the schedule was released. It might also have a little bit to do with their 2nd half collapse last week against Old Dominion. Not to mention the extra hype that comes with a weekday game and this being senior night (last home game). I expect them to give everything thing they got left in the tank for this one and I just don’t see the Owls matching that intensity.
Not to mention I think North Texas is the better team here. The Mean Green could very easily be sitting at 10-0 right now. They are outscoring teams 40.4 to 18.4 at home this season and FAU is getting outscored 26.0 to 37.8 on the road.
I think we are getting value not only from what happened last year in this series, but the Owls having covered 2 straight and North Texas having only covered 1 of their last 6. Give me the Mean Green -4!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-13-18||Western Michigan v. Ball State +7.5||41-42||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
40* NCAAF TUES NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (Ball State +7.5)
I just think the value is with the Cardinals at this price. Both teams will be without their starting quarterback. Western Michigan’s Jon Wassink is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and Ball State’s Riley Neal is out with a knee injury. I just think Wassink’s injury really levels the playing field in this one.
Prior to getting hurt, Wassink had basically completed 62% of his attempts for 2,000 yards with a 16-6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 162 yards and was second on the team with 6 rushing touchdowns. Backup Kaleb Eleby filled in nicely for Wassink against Toledo, but was just 10 of 19 for 152 yards with 2 picks last week vs Ohio.
I know there’s still hope of winning the MAC East, but I just think the life was kind sucked out of this team when Wassink went down. I’m banking on the Cardinals to show up for this one. I think backup Drew Plitt surprised people with how well he played in place of Neal against Toledo, throwing for 340 yards. While they lost the game by 32-points, they were within 100 total yards of the Rockets. This is also senior night for Ball State, so the effort should be there
I just think this one should be closer to a pick’em given the circumstances, which is why I would have to grab the touchdown and the hook with the home side. Give me the Cardinals +7.5!
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-115||34 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.
The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.
He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.
Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.
The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!
|11-11-18||Cowboys v. Eagles -7||27-20||Loss||-120||27 h 5 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot.
I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week.
I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run.
I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke.
Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field.
I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home.
I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7!
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||26-29||Push||0||92 h 4 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).
There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.
Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.
The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.
I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.
I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.
If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.
|11-11-18||Falcons v. Browns +6.5||16-28||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.
I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.
I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).
I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins. Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.
More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5!
|11-10-18||Kentucky v. Tennessee +6||7-24||Win||100||22 h 2 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Tennessee +6 )I’ll take my chances here with the Volunteers as a short home dog against No. 11 Kentucky. The Wildcats went from playing a game against Georgia, where a win would have made them SEC East champs and kept alive hope that they could maybe beat Alabama in the SEC title game and get into the playoffs. to having nothing but pride to play for in the final weeks of the regular-season. Sometimes teams can pick themselves up in a spot like this, but more times than not they don’t play well and end up losing. Luckily the majority of the public doesn’t dig this deep into the psyche of a football team. All they see is a team ranked No. 11 in the country playing a Tennessee team that hasn't done a ton to get you excited.I know this is an in-state rivalry, but not even that is going to get the Wildcats excited, especially given how bad Tennessee has looked and Kentucky having ended their losing streak to the Vols last year. On the flip side of this, I expect the Volunteers to be jacked up for this game. Not only do they want revenge from last year’s loss, but Tennessee needs needs to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible. I know simply getting to a bowl isn’t going to satisfy the Tennessee fan base, but after going 4-8 last year and this being the first season under new head coach Jeremy Pruitt, it would be a big win for this program. I’m not going to sit here and say the Volunteers are a great team, but I think people overlook how tough their schedule has been. 4 of their 5 losses have come against West Virginia, Florida, Georgia and Alabama. They other was a mere 3-point defeat at South Carolina. Their lone SEC win was an impressive one, as they went into Auburn and beat the Tigers 30-24 as a 15.5-point dog. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats are a team that has really thrived in the role of the underdog and struggled when they are expected to win. Kentucky is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They are also a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Give me Tennessee +6!
|11-10-18||Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -3||Top||22-52||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Pitt -3 )
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Panthers winning at home against the Hokies. Pittsburgh leads the ACC Coastal at 4-1 and with a win here they would move dangerously close to securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game, as the only team without 3 conference losses would be Virginia and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
I just think there's teams that the public struggles to buy into, regardless of what the record or numbers suggest. I believe Pitt is one of those teams, as they might have been the last team people picked to win this division and we have seen them lose badly to the likes of Penn State (51-6) and UCF (45-14).
Teams do improve over the course of a season and since that loss to the Knights, the Panthers only defeat is a 5-point setback at Notre Dame and they had a 14-6 halftime lead against the Irish.
Virginia Tech is also no where close to on the same level as that Penn State team early in the year and UCF. The Hokies have quite the brand name and I think some of that is playing into this low number.
This is not the same Virginia Tech team that started the year as a Coastal contender. They lost starting quarterback Josh Jackson and have had all kinds of injuries on a defense that was extremely young and inexperienced to begin with.
In the Hokies last 4 games they have allowed 167 rushing yards to Notre Dame, 235 to North Carolina, 465 to Georgia Tech and 219 to BC. Pitt has the No. 20 ranked rushing attack in the country at 230.8 ypg. Add in home field and there's no way the Panthers shouldn't be a bigger favorite here. Give me Pittsburgh -3!
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama||0-24||Win||100||21 h 17 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miss St +24.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs at this price in this spot. Even the elite teams like Alabama are vulnerable to letdowns. I just think watching how excited Nick Saban and Alabama were with that win over LSU, that was a massive game to them and it should have been. That win locked up the SEC West and put Alabama in a tremendous position to make the CFB Playoff (yet again).
I think the biggest takeaway for me with the LSU game was how the Tigers defense was able to at least slow down the Crimson Tide offense. I think Mississippi State has every bit as good a defense, if not better, than the Tigers. If they can hold Alabama to under 30 points, I'm willing to bet they cover this massive spread and even if the Crimson Tide score 30+, I think the defense is going to give up a few more big plays in this one and the backdoor cover will be wide open if needed. Give me the Bulldogs +24.5
|11-10-18||North Carolina +10.5 v. Duke||35-42||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with UNC as 10.5-point dog. I can't believe we are getting 10 points + the hook, as I think this game is a complete toss up. Duke might be the better overall team and the records definitely suggest that, but keep in mind that the Tar Heels had a bunch of players suspended early and that really messed with the chemistry of this team.
I know they come into this game having lost 5 in a row, with each of the last two coming by double-digits. The thing is, if you look back at the last 4 games during this stretch, UNC was in a great position to win every one of those games. I expect them to keep fighting until they break through and end this losing streak and you know they would love nothing more than to celebrate a win on their rivals home field.
Duke just went on the road and beat Miami as a 9-point dog, but that Hurricane's team is in a bad place as they struggle to realize they aren't as good as they thought coming into the season. Regardless of what state the Hurricanes were/are in, that was a big win for the Blue Devils, as they don't celebrate many wins at Miami. Could be really hard for them to shake off that big win and give UNC their full attention with a much bigger game against Clemson on deck. Note that Duke is pretty much out of the ACC Coastal race and already bowl eligible at 6-3. Give me the Tar Heels +10.5!
|11-10-18||Vanderbilt v. Missouri -16||Top||28-33||Loss||-105||18 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Missouri -16)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Missouri to win by at least 17 at home against the Commodores. The Tigers might have the same 1-4 record as Vandy in SEC play, but there's no doubt Missouri is the better team.
While both teams are getting outgained in SEC play, Missouri is only -55.8, where the Commodores are -149.6 ypg. Note that the Tigers have played Alabama and Vandy has not. If you just look at the 4 common opponents these two teams have played. Missouri has outgained these teams by 18.3 ypc and outscored them by 1.0 ppg. Vandy has been outgained by 185.7 and outscored by 17.0 ppg.
Drew Lock and that Missouri offense have had their way with bad defenses. The only teams to keep them in check are Georgia, Kentucky and Alabama. They have scored at least 35 on every other team and that includes 38 last week at Florida. Vandy has allowed 35+ points in 4 of their last 6 and one of the exceptions is Tennessee State, who had 27.
Missouri's defense is more than good enough to keep the Commodores from scoring enough to keep this within the number, especially at home. Give me the Tigers -16!
|11-09-18||Fresno State -2.5 v. Boise State||Top||17-24||Loss||-115||12 h 35 m||Show|
50* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC GAME OF THE MONTH (Fresno St -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Broncos. The fact that Boise State only comes into this game with one more loss than Fresno and are a home dog in a prime time game, tells you all you need to know. This Bulldogs team is the real deal and have one of the best defenses in the country that few know about. We saw Boise State managed just 13 points against a good San Diego State team in a 6-point home loss to the Aztecs (Broncos were favored by 13). I just don't see Boise being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Note that Broncos are now without leading tackler in linebacker Riley Whimpey, who tore his ACL in their last game against BYU. Add in revenge from last year's MWC title game and this could get ugly. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-07-18||Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3||15-38||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
40* WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (N Illinois -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Huskies as a small home favorite. Northern Illinois has won 5 straight and are on a mission to take back control of the MAC. Keep in mind they are 6-3 overall and all 3 losses have come against Power 5 opponents (Iowa, Utah & FSU).
I just think because they aren’t a flashy team that puts up a lot of points, it has them still flying a bit under the radar. Hard for people to trust a Northern Illinois team that is averaging 19.2 ppg to beat a Toledo squad that comes in scoring 41.2 ppg.
The thing is, the Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country and while the overall numbers don’t show it, they are scoring a modest 26.8 ppg in conferences play. Going back to the defense, they rank 32nd in the country, allowing a mere 346.9 ypg and are strong up front. Northern Illinois ranked 13th against the run (103.8 ypg) and are giving up a mere 2.6 yards/carry.
While they are outgaining opponents in conference play by 51.4 yards/game, Toledo is actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards/game.
The Rockets simply don’t have a great defense and are forced to try to outscore teams to beat them. That works against a lot of teams, but chances are they will struggle to pull out wins against a team like Northern Illinois.
I know Toledo comes into this game off a couple of lopsided wins, as they won at Western Michigan 51-24 the week before crushing Ball State 45-13. What you have to keep in mind with those two wins, is Western Michigan lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink was injured early and they got Ball State without Riley Neal, who does it all for that team.
Even going up against inexperienced backups this Toledo defense struggled. Ball State’s Drew Plitt threw for 340 yards and Western Michigan’s Kaleb Eleby threw for 293 yards and 2 scores (next game at home against Ohio was 10 of 19 for 152 yards and 2 picks).
You always want to check the forecast this late in the season, and conditions here aren’t great for scoring, which I feel definitely favors the Huskies. It’s expected to be right around 32 degrees at kickoff with winds blowing at close to 10 mph. Give me Northern Illinois -3!
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys -4.5||28-14||Loss||-114||10 h 44 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/TITANS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cowboys -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home. In year’s past the Cowboys have struggled to play well at home, but that’s not been the case in 2018. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 14.0 ppg (28.7 - 14.7). I really like the addition of Amari Cooper and what he can do for this offense. I think getting him during their bye week will give him enough time to get up to speed for this game.
With that said, I would have probably leaned towards Dallas had they not acquired Cooper in a trade. Mainly because I just can’t stomach betting the Titans and that horrible offense on the road. Tennessee has the same record as the Cowboys at 3-4, but they also could be 0-7 right now, as all 3 wins have come by exactly 3-points.
In today’s NFL, where it’s setup for the offenses to excel, the Titans have had two games where they didn’t throw for more than 85 yards. A few weeks back against the Ravens, they ended the game with 106 total yards.
I think people understand that Dallas’ defense has been playing well, but I think some might be surprised with just how good it’s been. The Cowboys come into this game allowing just 17.6 ppg (2nd) and 313.7 ypg (3rd). They have the 9th ranked run defense (96.3 ypg) and 3rd ranked pass defense (234.4 ypg).
Unless the Titans magically morph into a different offense than the one that’s played the first half of the season, it’s going to be a struggle for them to get first downs.
I know Dallas’ offense isn’t all that great, but they at least got potential and a true difference-maker in running back Ezekiel Elliott. Any impact that Cooper has is going to help this offense, as it will keep teams from just loading the box. I just think Dallas will score enough here to win by at least a touchdown. Give me the Cowboys -4.5!
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road.
New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5.
I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5!
|11-04-18||Texans +1 v. Broncos||19-17||Win||100||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Texans +1)
I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here.
Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams.
The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is.
All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room.
Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team.
I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town.
Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory. Give me Houston +1!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-03-18||Stanford v. Washington -10||23-27||Loss||-115||28 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (Washington -10)
I went against Washington a couple weeks ago with Colorado as a double-digit road dog and cashed a winning ticket. Some might think I would be considering taking Stanford as a double-digit dog, especially after just watching the Huskies lose at Cal as a 11-point favorite. Not a chance. I believe this line is telling you who the books think is going to show up on Saturday. The public is going to poor in on the Cardinal at this price. No way they make Stanford a double-digit dog if they think that's the right side. I think the big upset was lurking after Washington lost that shot at a national title with their second loss of the season against Oregon. However, now that they have hit rock bottom, I'm willing to be Chris Peterson will be able to get them to show up at home under the lights. This Stanford defense can be exposed and if Washington's defense brings the intensity, this won't be close. Give me the Huskies -10!
|11-03-18||Oklahoma v. Texas Tech +13.5||Top||51-46||Win||100||28 h 48 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +13.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders as a near two touchdown dog. I think a lot of people see Oklahoma as this unbeatable team in the Big 12 and capable of covering any spread they come across. I'm not saying they aren't good, but this is a big number for them to be laying against a quality Texas Tech team (better than they have been in years). The Red Raiders are actually tackling people and playing a little defense. With the way this team can score, especially at home, I see no reason to think they can't keep this within 10-points. With this game coming at night, I think it gives Texas Tech a very good shot of winning this game outright. Much like how LSU's Tiger Stadium turns into something different under the lights on Saturday night, the same thing happens in Lubbock with Jones AT&T Stadium. Give me the Red Raiders +13.5!
|11-03-18||Penn State v. Michigan -12||7-42||Win||100||24 h 31 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Michigan -12)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Michigan. To a lot of people this line will make no sense. They will think there's no way Penn State should be getting this many points, especially after how they beat them 42-13 last year. To me I see a much-improved Wolverines team that has been itching for two weeks to get their revenge on the Nittany Lions. A Penn State team I think is overrated and ready to be exposed. Michigan had this same mindset in their two previous games against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both games they won and covered as a lot bigger favorites than a lot of people thought they should be. While Michigan is fresh, the Nittany Lions are banged up after a very physical game against Iowa. I also don't think this Penn State team is playing with the same edge after those back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. While not out of it, it's really a long shot. They would still need Michigan to lose again and the only potential loss left on the schedule for the Wolverines is at Ohio State. The only way that matters is if the Buckeyes lose another game before that, as they are 1-game up on the Nittany Lions. Give me Michigan -12!
|11-03-18||Georgia v. Kentucky +9.5||Top||34-17||Loss||-115||23 h 4 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with Kentucky as a near double-digit home dog to Georgia. There's something special about this Wildcats team and they have absolutely embraced this underdog role. To rally the way they did last week against Missouri, is going to have this team as excited for a game as they have been in quite some time. The atmosphere under the lights at Kroger Field will be electric and we have already seen the Bulldogs crumble in a hostile environment at LSU. A game they lost by 20 as a 6.5-point favorite. Not to mention, if Kentucky wins this game they will simply need to beat Tennessee to lock up the East Division and a spot in the SEC Championship Game. There only loss all year came at Texas A&M in overtime by 6-points. I just don't think Georgia is like Alabama, where they are unbeatable, yet that's the feeling a lot of people had coming into this year. Give me the Wildcats +9.5 and sprinkle a little on that money line!
|11-03-18||Iowa v. Purdue -2.5||36-38||Loss||-111||23 h 20 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -2.5)
I'll take my chances with Purdue laying less than a field goal at home to the Hawkeyes. ’m immediately drawn to unranked teams that are favorites against a team that is ranked in the Top 25. I think the books are tipping their hand to the side you should be taking and if you play them consistently, you are going to wind up on top. With that said, the line isn’t the only reason I’m taking the Boilermakers to win this game. I think Iowa’s loss to Penn State will be much harder for the Hawkeyes to rebound from than Purdue’s loss at Michigan State.Not that Iowa went into that game expecting to win, but more so how they failed to do so. The Hawkeyes had the ball 1st & Goal from the Penn State 3-yard line down just 6-points with roughly 3 minutes to play. Nate Stanley throws a pick on the next play. A win in that game and Iowa would have been in the driver seat in the Big Ten West and still in the playoff hunt. I just think they struggle to bring the type of energy needed to win on the road against Purdue. I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Boilermakers had no chance of beating Ohio State at home. I didn’t even think they would cover the spread. I learned a lot about this team in that game and my respect for head coach Jeff Brohm is definitely up another notch. Iowa is not only playing the second straight week on the road, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks overall. If that wasn’t enough, starting quarterback Nathan Stanley is dealing with a thumb injury. Stanley has been outstanding for this team and why they are 6-2 and ranked No. 16. There’s zero experience behind him and while he’s expected to play, he’s potentially going to go at less than 100% and will be just one wrong hit away from having to leave this game. As for how Purdue will move the ball against this Hawkeyes defense. I think Iowa is much better suited to slow down teams that want to run the football. I think Purdue’s 11th ranked passing attack will be able to do some damage. The Hawkeyes also tend to struggle with speed and I could really see them struggling to contain the Boilermakers electric freshman Rondale Moore. Give me Purdue -2.5!