|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-18-19||Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 225.5||105-111||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's marquee matchup between the Spurs and Warriors. Golden State is coming off one of it's best defensive performances of the season, as they held Russell Westbrook, Paul George and the OKC Thunder to just 88 points on 32.3% shooting in Saturday's 22-point blowout win. The game before they limited James Harden and the Rockets to 104 points. Spurs have won 8 straight and during this run have been locking opponents down. San Antonio has allowed more than 105 in just one game during this hot stretch and we can bank on a big effort here. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|03-08-19||Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 234.5||105-122||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 234.5)
I wanted to take the Warriors here off that embarrassing loss to the Celtics, but the spread is just a little too high for my liking. Good news is I like the OVER just as much, if not more, as these are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Both of which are not playing all that great defensively as they try to adjust to playing with a new star. For Golden State it's DeMarcus Cousins and for Denver it's Isaiah Thomas. Last time these two teams played the Warriors won 142-111 as they combined for 253. I don't know if they get there, but they easily hit 235. Give me the OVER 234.5!
|02-24-19||Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 233.5||96-123||Loss||-110||6 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 233.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 233.5 in Sunday's Western Conference showdown between Denver and Los Angeles. Nuggets are finally healthy and simply have a plethora of playmakers at their disposal. I just think they are going to be extremely tough to contain and we saw that in their first game back from the break. Denver shot a miserable 40.8% from the field and yet still put up 114 points. Clippers will have no answer and really have no choice but to try to outshoot the Nuggets, which should have this thing flying past the number. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|02-22-19||Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 213.5||112-106||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 213.5)
I'll take my chances with the Clippers and Grizzlies going OVER the total of 213.5. I just think there's some value here on both sides. I think the perception is that LAC is not going to be as potent offensively after trading away one of their top scorers in Tobias Harris, but they made some sneaky good additions in other trades and put up 120+ in each of their final 3 before the break.
As for the Grizzlies, it's the opposite. This team has the perception of being this defensive juggernaut. However, that was before they traded away the anchor in the middle in Marc Gasol. Memphis is in full on rebuilding mode and just aren't going to bring that energy and effort on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch. Give me the OVER 213.5!
|02-21-19||Blazers v. Nets OVER 229||113-99||Loss||-113||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 229)
I'll take my chances here with the Blazers and Nets combining for at least 230 points. Brooklyn is a team that likes to get up and down the floor and are averaging a healthy 114.9 ppg at home this season. Portland can run and gun as well and giving up 113.3 ppg on the road.
More than anything, I think the pace will be up there in this game with both teams well rested out of the All-Star break. Last year the OVER was 9-5 in the first game back from the break and the few that went UNDER barely stayed under the mark. Last time these two played in Brooklyn they combined for 252.
It's also worth noting the Blazers have recently added Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter and we almost always see teams struggle defensively when new pieces are added. Give me the OVER 229!
|02-21-19||Suns v. Cavs OVER 218||Top||98-111||Loss||-109||9 h 16 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218)
I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side.
Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218!
|02-12-19||Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 208.5||108-107||Loss||-109||10 h 16 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208.5)
*I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208.5 in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Grizzlies. Memphis just held Anthony Davis and the Pelicans to 90 points on 39.5% shooting. This team is starting to find its rhythm defensively again and they really need it with how their offense is struggling to get easy looks. Memphis hasn't shot better than 44% from the field in 6 straight games. Spurs defense has been the culprit in their 4-game losing streak. I think we see a big effort on that side following a much-needed 2-day break. Give me the UNDER 208.5!
|02-11-19||Bucks v. Bulls OVER 227||Top||112-99||Loss||-110||8 h 9 m||Show|
50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227!
|02-10-19||Lakers v. 76ers OVER 234||Top||120-143||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234)
I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER!
|02-09-19||Hornets v. Hawks OVER 228.5||129-120||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 228.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's NBA clash between the Hawks and Hornets. No team plays at a faster pace in the NBA than Atlanta and only the Knicks, Suns and Cavs are ranked lower in defensive efficiency than the Hawks. That's a pretty good combo for high-scoring games. Charlotte only managed 93 last time out at Dallas, but had scored 115+ in their previous 2 and will be facing a Hawks defense that has allowed 7 straight opponents to reach at least 112 points. Atlanta has also scored 112 or more in 7 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|02-02-19||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 222.5||125-98||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 222.5)
I'll take my chances with the Jazz and Rockets combining for at least 223 points. Houston doesn't figure to have Chris Paul, who is one of the better defenders. It's just going to be run and gun and hope Harden puts up 50 because the defensive effort won't be there on no rest. Utah's defense has been shaky of late and the Jazz are also playing on no rest. I think both teams could score 125 points and all we really need is for one of the two to get there to secure a win. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz OVER 226.5||112-128||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 226.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 on the total for the Hawks/Jazz. I usually don't like playing the OVER in games involving Utah, but I like the spot we are in. Atlanta's the ideal over team. The Hawks play at the fastest tempo in the league and are also one of the worst defensive teams.
Utah's defense has been slipping of late and while some might expect a big effort here after giving up 132 at Portland last time out, I just don't see the Jazz laying it all on the line against a bad team like the Hawks, especially with James Harden and the Rockets coming to town tomorrow.
OVER is 7-2 in Utah's last 9 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|01-24-19||Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 234||116-122||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 234)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in this one. I just think the number here has been set way too high. Both teams have to be battling fatigue, as each will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. For New Orleans they are playing on no rest, as they hosted Detroit last night. Pelicans are also without their best player in Anthony Davis. On top of that, both E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic were banged up against the Pistons and are questionable to play. I think these two will be lucky to hit 220. Give me the UNDER 234!
|01-20-19||Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 219.5||95-120||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 219.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 219.5 in this one. Both Charlotte and Indiana will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set, as the Hornets hosted the Suns on Saturday while the Pacers hosted the Mavs. Both teams won rather easily, so I'm expecting a little more edge defensive than you would typically see in a game with both teams on no rest. UNDER is 35-17 in the Pacers last 52 home games 13-4-1 in their last 18 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. UNDER is also 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Indiana. Give me the UNDER 219.5!
|01-17-19||76ers v. Pacers UNDER 225||120-96||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Eastern Conference showdown between the 76ers and Pacers. Both teams come in playing well, as the Pacers are 9-2 in their last 11, while Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 and off a 149-107 blowout win against Minnesota. I just think the defensive effort is going to be there for both teams and when these two want to, they can be elite defensive teams. Clearly there's offensive talent on both sides, but with the total where it is it's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 225!
|01-17-19||Knicks v. Wizards OVER 226.5||100-101||Loss||-116||5 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 226.5)
First off, for those that don't know, this game is being played in London. That right there has me thinking there will be a lack of defense played. That's even more so when you factor the caliber a teams we have here with the Knicks and Wizards. Washington has been playing decent, surprisingly since John Wall went down. I just think the ball is moving a little more and it's resulted in the ball going in the hoop more frequently. Wizards have scored at least 109 in 8 straight and 121 ppg over their last 7. Knicks are giving up 117 ppg on the road, so 120+ from Washington should be easy. All we need is for New York to hit around 110-115 for this to fly over and the Wizards are giving up 118.7 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|01-16-19||Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224.5||129-109||Loss||-110||12 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 224.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in tonight's NBA action between the Jazz and Clippers. With their top 3 point guards all injured, Utah has really had to rely on their defense of late and they come in having held each of their last 4 opponents to 41.2% or worse from the field.
While they have scored 100+ in 4 straight, they have not shot the ball well at all of late. The Jazz are shooting 42.4% from the field in their last 5. Clippers have held their last 5 opponents to 43.2% shooting and I think we get a big effort on that side from LA, as they come in having lost 3 straight and really can't afford to lose here with their upcoming schedule not all that favorable. Give me the UNDER 224.5!
|01-14-19||Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 207.5||94-112||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 207.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. The Rockets are a great offensive team, but are playing short-handed right now and in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights. I just don't see them playing with the same pace offensively and tired legs is bad news for a team that loves to shoot 3-pointers like the Rockets. Add in Memphis desperately needing a win and the Grizzlies being a team that wants to grind games out with a methodical pace and stingy defense. All adds up to a low scoring game. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|01-10-19||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 224||Top||147-154||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224!
|01-08-19||Kings v. Suns OVER 230.5||111-115||Loss||-102||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 230.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in tonight's NBA action that has the Kings and Suns going head-to-head. These two teams are ideal for a high-scoring game. Sacramento plays at the second fastest pace in the NBA, so possessions for both teams will be up there. The even bigger key is the lack of defense these two teams play. Both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency. Kings give up 117.9 ppg on the road and the Suns allow 112.9 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 230.5!
|12-27-18||Lakers v. Kings OVER 231||116-117||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Kings hosting the Lakers. I'm expecting zero defense to be played here. The Lakers are coming off that huge win on the road over the Warriors Christmas Day. They are primed for a letdown off that huge win, especially given they won't have LeBron or Rondo for this contest. Kings love to push the pace and I the young Lakers will gladly play that style here and both teams should eclipse 120. Bet the OVER 231!
|12-25-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 222.5||Top||114-121||Loss||-110||7 h 60 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|12-25-18||Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 221.5||109-113||Loss||-109||4 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 221.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. I see a ton of value here in this particular matchup. OKC is one of those teams that can be an elite defensive team when they want to and they know they will have to bring it on the road against James Harden and the Rockets. Key here is Houston is without Chris Paul and they just aren't the same offensive team without him on the floor. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|12-14-18||Heat v. Grizzlies UNDER 199||100-97||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 199)
It shouldn't take a whole lot of explanation to why I like the UNDER in a game involving the Grizzlies. While everyone else in the NBA is trying to spread the floor, push the pace and jack up a bunch of 3's, Memphis is grinding games out with a methodical approach that has an old school feel to it. Miami's still without starting point guard Dragic and last time out scored just 88 at Utah. Both teams rank in the bottom 7 in offensive efficiency and Top 11 in defensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 199!
|12-12-18||Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 218.5||Top||97-113||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
50* NBA CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 218.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with these two Central Division rivals going UNDER the mark set by the books. The UNDER has cashed in 7 straight games involving the Pacers and is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 as well. A big reason for that is both teams are getting it done on the defensive end. Milwaukee is allowing just 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and Indiana is only giving up 97.8 ppg. Both teams are holding opponents under 43% shooting in their last 5. Bucks won by 17 at home way back on Oct. 19, but the UNDER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 218.5!
|12-06-18||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 216||Top||91-118||Loss||-105||12 h 26 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 216)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216 in tonight's NBA action that has the Rockets visiting the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game where they set a new franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers and shot 61% from the field on their way to putting up a 139 points against the Spurs. Houston's defense has been slipping of late, but the offense has also picked up and I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two to hit at least 220. OVER is 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a win by 15 or more and 8-1 in their 9 home games this season. Give me the OVER 216!
|11-23-18||Heat v. Bulls UNDER 213.5||103-96||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (UNDER 213.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Heat visiting the Bulls. This doesn't figure to be a very entertaining game to watch, as we have two offenses that are struggling to score without some key guys on the floor. Miami's offense has gone ice-cold without starting point guard Goran Dragic and even with him they were below-average. Chicago scored 124 on 56.8% shooting last time out, but that was against an awful Suns team. Prior to that the Bulls put up 83 on their home floor against the Raptors and had scored fewer than 100 in 5 of their previous 6. UNDER 8-3 in Bulls last 14 overall and 3-0 in Miami's last 3. BET THE UNDER 213.5!
|11-06-18||Wizards v. Mavs OVER 225.5||100-119||Loss||-105||11 h 50 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 225.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Mavericks hosting the Wizards. Washington comes in off a much-needed 108-95 win over the Knicks and based on the score it looks like the defense played great, but I just feel it was more of New York's lack of offense and a bad night shooting. Wizards are still giving up 120.7 ppg on the season, including a ridiculous 125.4 ppg on the road. Dallas is a very similar team to Washington. They are a capable offensive team at 110.8 ppg (116.2 ppg at home) and not very good on defense. Mavs are allowing 116.8 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 50% from the field. Give me the OVER 225.5!
|10-29-18||Hawks v. 76ers OVER 230||92-113||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 230)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's NBA action between the 76ers and Hawks. Atlanta leads the NBA early on in pace of play and Philadelphia isn't too far behind, as they have the 8th fastest pace of play. I think the 76ers will enjoy the up-tempo game and I don't see them being all that interested in locking down defensively against an Atlanta team that simply isn't very good, especially with a big road game at Toronto on deck tomorrow. OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Hawks 3 road games and the averaging score in those games has been 241.7. All we need is for them to get to 231. Give me the OVER 230!
|10-24-18||Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 219||Top||92-97||Loss||-103||10 h 13 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219!
|10-24-18||Mavs v. Hawks OVER 233.5||104-111||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 233.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Mavs and Hawks eclipsing this high total of 233.5. These two teams are both awful defensively. Dallas comes in giving up 122 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 122.7 ppg. Atlanta has also made a point of trying to play as fast as they can. They are doing a good job of it, as they lead the league in pace of play. Dallas will have no problem playing up-tempo against this team, as they are well equipped to outscore them. Look for this one to get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|10-23-18||Kings v. Nuggets OVER 227.5||Top||112-126||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5!
|10-22-18||Bulls v. Mavs OVER 229||109-115||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 229)
Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Both these teams fall into that category. The average score in Bulls' games this season is 239 points and for Dallas it's 148.5. Chicago is giving up 122.5 ppg and Mavs are allowing 128.5 ppg. Give me the OVER 229!
|10-22-18||Pacers v. Wolves OVER 226||91-101||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226)
Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Minnesota is definitely one of them. The average score in Timberwolves' games this season is 250 points, as they are averaging and giving up 125 ppg. Indiana comes in averaging 115 ppg and are giving up 118 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 226!
|10-19-18||Kings v. Pelicans OVER 232||129-149||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 232)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232 in Friday's NBA showdown between the Kings and Pelicans. Sacramento is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but I like the offensive talent they got and with Fox at the point they are going to play up-tempo. I believe that's going to lead to an offensive onslaught tonight. The Pelicans were fantastic offensively in their opener at Houston and if they can do that to the Rockets, I see no reason not to expect more of the same here in their home opener. New Orleans might just be the best team in the west no one is talking about, but that won't last for long. I think they could hit 130 points again tonight, but even if they hit just 120, that should be enough to eclipse this mark. Give me the OVER 232!
|10-17-18||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 226||107-98||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 226)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 226 in tonight's Western Conference clash between the Clippers and Nuggets. This is a massive total and I just don't see them getting to it. Los Angeles is a team that everyone is writing off now that their trio of Griffin Paul and Jordan are all gone. They still have a great head coach in Doc Rivers and are going to play hard. They also have the best defensive backcourt in the league with Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley. For Los Angeles to be competitive early, they are going to have to go all out defensively, as the offense figures to struggle to get going with no go-to guy. That duo of Beverly and Bradley will really make things tough on the Nuggets, as they will lock down Denver's dynamic young backcourt of Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. Give me the UNDER 226!
|10-17-18||Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219||113-112||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 219)
I'll take my chances here with the Bucks and Hornets going OVER the mark of 219. I've really liked what I seen from the Hornets offense in the preseason. They really have put an emphasis on the 3-point shot. They hit 19 of them in their preseason finale against the Mavs and I expect a much more free-flowing offense without Dwight Howard on the roster. This is also one of the more deeper teams in the league and should easily eclipse the 108.2 ppg they averaged last year. Milwaukee is another team that I think is going to take a big step forward offensively, as I loved the hire of Mike Budenholzer, who did some great things with the Hawks. Bucks are going to space things out a lot more and they too figure to shoot a lot more 3-pointers. We saw them connect on 25 from deep in their preseason finale against the Timberwolves with all 5 starters making at least 2. Give me the OVER 219!
|05-26-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212.5||Top||86-115||Loss||-108||10 h 6 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 212.5)
As you can tell by the spread, the books aren't expecting a close game in Game 6, as the Warriors are laying close to 13-points at home. While I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State covered the big spread, given they are facing elimination and the Rockets are without a key piece in Chris Paul, I think the real value is with the total. After combining for just 187 points in Game 4 and 192 in Game 5, we have seen the total drop almost 15 points from Game 4 to Game 6. I just think Houston is looking more ahead to Game 7 at home and won't be as good defensively here, especially with Paul sidelined. Golden State is also due for an offensive explosion and I think we see them get to around 220 with Houston doing more than enough to push it over the mark here. Give me the OVER 212.5
|05-23-18||Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 206.5||Top||83-96||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Celtics and Cavs staying UNDER the mark of 206.5 set by the books. These two teams combined for 113 points in Game 4 to go OVER the total for the first time in the series. Most will just assume this will be another high-scoring game, but the first two games in Boston suggest otherwise. The Celtics were a completely different team defensive in Games 1 and 2 at home, holding the Cavs to 83 and 94 points respectively. I think Cleveland once again has trouble to score away from home. I also think with how big this game is that we get another big effort from the Cavs on the defensive end to keep Boston from going off. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we saw both teams fail to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 206.5!
|05-14-18||Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225||119-106||Push||0||8 h 53 m||Show|
40* WARRIORS/ROCKETS TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 225)
This has the feeling of an NBA Finals matchup, as most people agree that the winner of this series is going to end up the champs when it's all said and done. I know both teams are littered with elite offensive players, but it's their defense that makes them so special. These are two of the best defensive teams in the game. I just think that given what's at stake and how important each game is, both of these teams will be giving everything they got on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be shocked if these two failed to eclipse 210. Give me the UNDER 225!
|05-08-18||Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 208||102-112||Loss||-110||9 h 51 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 208)
I'll take my chances here with the Jazz/Rockets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. All the attention with Houston is on their offense and how many 3-pointers they make and take. What is getting overlooked is their defense, which has shined in the last 2 games. After giving up 116 in a loss at home in Game 2, the Rockets held the Jazz to 92 on 41.7% shooting in Game 3 and 87 points on 38.6% shooting in Game 4. With a chance to put the series away, I expect another big effort from Houston at home in Game 5. AT the same time, we are going to get a max effort here from Utah facing elimination. Take the UNDER 208!
|05-04-18||Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 232||100-119||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 232)
I'll take my chances here with the Pelicans and Warriors going OVER this big total set by the books. These two teams combined for 124 in Game 1 with Curry sidelined. He returned in Game 2 and came off the bench with 28 points and the two combined for 137. I know defense usually wins out over a series in the playoffs, but these two teams play at such a frantic tempo that they are going to score a ton even if they don't shoot well. New Orleans offense has been great the entire postseason, but it was exceptional in their 2 home games against the Blazers in the first round. I expect their offense to improve at home in Game 3, but I don't know that they will be able to do anything to slow down Golden State's offensive attack. Keep in mind the Warriors scored 121 in Game 2 with Thompson scoring just 10 points and Durant/Thompson going a mere 4-18 from deep. Give me the OVER 232!
|04-30-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207.5||101-117||Loss||-110||9 h 49 m||Show|
40* NBA '76ERS/CELTICS' TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 207.5)
The Celtics just cant catch a break in the injury department, as they will be without Jaylen Brown for Game 1 tonight against Philadelphia. That's a crushing loss for Boston on the offensive side of the ball. It's not going to kill the defense, as they can just play Smart in his spot and he's arguably a better defender, but not as skilled offensively. I look for the Celtics to really rely on their defense in this game and I think they could make it really tough on the 76ers. Miami was a great matchup for Philadelphia in the first round. I think Boston knows this team a lot better and will be able to make it a lot harder. There's also a drastic difference in playing on the road in Boston than Miami in the postseason. This is going to be the first real hostile environment for the 76ers in the postseason and I think we could see some rust here for Philadelphia having last played 6 days ago. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|04-28-18||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 195.5||Top||96-112||Loss||-106||11 h 10 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 195.5)
I'll take my chances with Game 7 between the Celtics and Bucks finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. This series has really shifted to a defensive battle. After combining for at least 206 in each of the first 4, they scored just 179 in Game 5 and 183 in Game 6. The Bucks have held the Celtics to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last 4 games and Boston held Milwaukee to a mere 87 points on 37% shooting last time these two played at the Garden. With this being a winner-take-all scenario, I think the pressure and defensive intensity from both sides will have this game finishing in the 180's. Take the UNDER 195.5!
|04-01-18||Bucks v. Nuggets OVER 223.5||Top||125-128||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223.5)
My money is on the Bucks and Nuggets going OVER the total set here by the books. Milwaukee has seen the OVER go 10-1 in their last 11 games, as they continue to light it up on the offensive side and struggle to defend on the defensive side. The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in 9 of their last 11 games and have allowed 100+ in all 11. The Nuggets are in a similar boat, as the OVER is 4-1-1 in their last 6. During this 6-game stretch Denver is averaging 120.7 ppg and allowing 118.8 ppg for an average combined score just under 240. Give me the OVER 223.5!
|03-30-18||Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 197||Top||97-107||Loss||-105||11 h 33 m||Show|
50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 197)
My money is on the UNDER in this one, as we have the Jazz hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis comes in off back-to-back upset wins over the Timberwolves and Blazers and their defense played a big part in both of those wins. The Grizzlies held Minnesota to just 93 points on the road and followed that up by allowing just 103 to Portland. Those are two of the better offensive teams in the league. While the defense has been much better of late, the offense is still a mess. Memphis is averaging just 97.2 ppg over their last 5 games, a stretch in which they have also shot just 43.4% from the field. Utah is an elite defensive team, especially at home, where they are giving up just 96.9 ppg and holding teams to just 43.5% shooting. Coming off an upset loss at home to a short-handed Boston team and the Jazz far from safe in the west playoff race (currently 8th), I think we get a big effort here from the Jazz and this game stays well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 197!
|03-28-18||Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 194.5||Top||97-94||Win||100||12 h 57 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 194.5)
My money is on Wednesday's NBA action between the Celtics and Jazz going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston has been hit hard with injuries. They are without both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart and aren't expected to have Marcus Morris for this game against the Jazz. Morris has been one of the Celtics best scorers with Irving out, as he leads the team with 18.3 ppg in the month of March. I just have a hard time seeing Boston being to get much of anything going offensively on the road against the Jazz, who are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially at home, where they are allowing just 96.9 ppg and holding opponents to 43.5% shooting. While The Celtics offense figures to struggle, I expect them to play hard defensively, which has been a staple of this team under Stevens. I don't see either team reaching the century mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5!
|03-26-18||Knicks v. Hornets UNDER 221.5||Top||128-137||Loss||-105||8 h 36 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 221.5)
I'll take my chances with the Knicks/Hornets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. Charlotte is averaging 109.6 ppg over their last 5, but that's a bit misleading, as they had a 140 points in 1 game against the Grizzlies. That's the only one of the five that went OVER the total. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Knicks last 5. With New York playing well and the Hornets fighting for their playoff lives, I look for a much lower-scoring game than what the books are expecting with this number in the 220s. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|03-25-18||Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5||108-105||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 216.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. I'm expecting this game between the Blazers and Thunder to have a playoff-like atmosphere, as there's a lot at stake for both sides. Right now the Blazers own the No. 3 spot in the West, but they hold a slim 1-game edge over Oklahoma City. Keep in mind that Portland is just 3.5-games ahead of 8th place Utah. Given what is at stake, I think both sides will bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that both teams are playing well on that side coming in, as each is giving up right around 103.5 ppg over their last 5 contests. This is also a division game and the average combined score for both teams in division games this year have been right around 207 points. I think we see a final score close to that, making this an easy play for me given the price. Give me the UNDER 216.5!
|03-22-18||Hawks v. Kings UNDER 212.5||90-105||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 212.5)
The Hawks come in off a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as a 13.5-point dog, but that was more of the Jazz not showing up to play. What gets lost in the win is how bad the Hawks were offensively, though it shouldn't come as a surprise. It was the 8th time in their last 9 road games that they failed to score more than 100 points. It hasn't been going much better offensively for the Kings, who have scored 98 or fewer in each of their last 3 games. I know the defenses aren't great here, but I just feel this total is way too high given the lack of talent both teams have offensively. Give me the UNDER 212.5!
|03-19-18||Bulls v. Knicks OVER 217||92-110||Loss||-108||8 h 57 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (OVER 217)
Two of the NBA's worst will face off tonight when the Knicks host the Bulls. Both teams are in tank mode and it would do them a lot better in the long-run to lose this game rather than win. I don't think either team will have any interest in playing any defense and these aren't great defensive teams to start with. Each of Chicago's last 4 games have seen at least 218 combined points and 4 of the Knicks last 5 have seen at least 125 points. Give me the OVER 217!
|03-14-18||Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 205.5||125-124||Loss||-107||10 h 36 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 205.5)
My money is on a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting in tonight's NBA action between the Celtics and Wizards. Boston will basically have their "B" squad out there for this one, as Irving, Smart and Brown are all out for this game and Horford could be added to the list before tip-off. Without Irving this Celtics team just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to explode offensively. What this team will do is get after it on the defensive side of the ball. Washington is coming off a up-tempo game last night against the Timberwolves, where the two teams combined for 127 points. I just don't see the pace being their for the Wizards in this one, as they not only are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but they are also playing their 4th game in the last 6 days. Give me the UNDER 205.5!
|03-07-18||Magic v. Lakers OVER 226||107-108||Loss||-103||12 h 31 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 226)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER in this one. Orlando scored just 80-points in their last game, but shot a miserable 34.1% from the field. Prior to that they had scored 100+ in 12 straight games. I think they are in a prime spot to bounce back offensively against a Lakers team that has given up 100+ in 9 straight. In LA's last game they combined for 211 points with the Blazers and that was with the Lakers shooting just 39.5% from the field and Portland hitting on just 42.2% of their attempts. Prior to that LA had scored at least 111 points 8 straight games. I also think both of these teams being out of the playoff race will have both sides not 100% invested defensively in this one. Give me the OVER 226!
|03-06-18||76ers v. Hornets UNDER 215||128-114||Loss||-110||8 h 1 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 215)
I'll take my chances here with Tuesday's showdown between the Hornets and 76ers going UNDER the mark set by the books. Charlotte is trying to make a late season push for one of the final playoff spots in the east. They looked well on their way with 4 straight wins out of the break, but have since dropped 3 straight. All of those were on the road, including a 99-110 loss at Philadelphia last Friday. The Hornets were in a great position to win that game before collapsing in the 2nd half and should be extremely motivated here for revenge. As for the 76ers, I also think they come out extremely motivated off a loss at Milwaukee. The defensive intensity should be there for both sides and keep this well under the mark. Give me the UNDER 215!
|03-05-18||Magic v. Jazz UNDER 207||80-94||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207)
I'll take my chances here with the Jazz and Magic finishing below the mark set by the books. I think the fact that Orlando has scored and allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games has this total higher than it should be. The Jazz are not only one of the better defensive teams in the league, but they also like to grind it out and slow down the pace. I don't see the Magic dictating the tempo here on the road. At the same time, I think Orlando's defense can hold their own in this game. Utah has been brutal offensively of late, averaging a mere 95.4 ppg over their last 5 games. Give me the UNDER 207!
|02-28-18||Warriors v. Wizards OVER 226.5||Top||109-101||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 226.5)
My money is on the Warriors and Wizards flying over the total tonight. Washington continues to surprise people with how well they are playing without All-Star point guard John Wall. They just won on the road last night 107-104 at Milwaukee. It was the 14th straight game that the Wizards eclipsed the 100-point mark. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 112 points in 7 straight games. A stretch where the OVER has gone 5-2. Golden State continues to play at a frantic pace and with the Wizards in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they should dictate the tempo here and I believe that will have this one in the 230s and maybe even the 240s. Give me the OVER 226.5!
|02-26-18||Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5||94-123||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 218.5)
My money is on Monday's NBA total for the Raptors/Pistons game going UNDER the mark set here by the books. I think we are going to see a spirited effort from both teams on the defensive side here. Detroit just allowed 114 in a 16-point loss at Charlotte and head coach Stan Van Gundy called out his team for their lack of effort on defense. As for the Raptors, they just suffered a rare home loss (24-5 at home this season) to the Bucks in their first game out of the break and it was their defense that was to blame. Toronto put up a solid 119 points, but allowed the Bucks to score 122. Given how good the Raptors have been defensively this year (ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency), I think they make life miserable for the Pistons here and keep this well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5!
|02-25-18||Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 221.5||123-121||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 221.5)
Since the Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season ending injury they have really looked to push the tempo to make up for his absence. In the 11 games since Cousins went down, New Orleans leads the league in pace of play at 105.4. No surprise that the Warriors are second, but Golden State is at just 102.8. That 2.6 difference is impressive as that's the same margin of gap that separates the Warriors from the 10th fastest pace during this stretch. They come in absolutely on fire averaging 129.8 ppg during a 4-game winning streak. Milwaukee has allowed 134 and 119 in their last 2 games. The Bucks are also clicking offensively, as they are averaging over 120 in their last 2 games. I think we could see this get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 221.5!
|02-24-18||Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 207.5||121-112||Loss||-105||10 h 53 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Saturday's Atlantic Division showdown between the Celtics and Knicks staying under the mark set here by the books. These two teams have already played 3 times this season and all 3 have been low scoring, with each finishing with 199 or fewer points. I see now reason that trend won't continue. The Celtics weren't exactly locked in defensively going into the All-Star break, but came out and held the Pistons to just 43% shooting on the road in their first game back and now face a Knicks team that is averaging just 97.1 ppg in their last 9 games. A stretch in which they have shot 44% or worse from the field 7 times. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|02-22-18||Knicks v. Magic OVER 212||120-113||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 212)
These are two of the bottom-feeders in the east and I have a hard time seeing either of these teams being all that locked in defensively in the first game out of the break. Keep in mind these two teams aren't good defensive teams to start with. New York is giving up 109 ppg on the road and allowed 112.6 ppg over their final 5 games before the break. Orlando is giving up 110 ppg on the season. I'm also expecting a fast tempo here from both teams, which should have this one flying over the number. Give me the OVER 212!
|02-22-18||Nets v. Hornets OVER 214.5||96-111||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214.5)
I'll take my chances with this one going OVER the mark set by the books. I think Charlotte is a sneaky good offensive team and the Hornets come in averaging 107.2 ppg at home this season. They shouldn't have any problem getting that offense going against the Nets, who are allowing 109.9 ppg on the road and I wouldn't be surprised if they struggled to bring the defensive intensity out of the break. As far as the offense is concerned, Brooklyn can put up some points and with Russell now back in the starting lineup, we should see an uptick in their scoring. Charlotte not exactly a great defensive team either, as they give up 106.5 ppg at home and went into the break allowing 112.2 ppg over their final 5 contests. Give me the OVER 214.5!
|02-09-18||Bucks v. Heat UNDER 198||85-91||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 198)
My money is on the Bucks and Heat finishing well below the total set by the books on Friday. Milwaukee comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. During this stretch the Bucks are the No. 1 rated team in the league in defensive efficiency. Part of that is the tempo they are playing at, as they rank 25th in pace over this run. Miami has been playing this way all season, as the Heat are 28th in pace and 8th in defensive efficiency. I also think we get a big time defensive effort here from Miami on their home floor having lost 5 straight and allowing 100+ in each of their last 4. Give me the UNDER 198!
|02-07-18||Nets v. Pistons UNDER 209||106-115||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 209)
Lot of factors here working in favor of tonight's game between the Pistons and Nets going under the mark set by the books. Detroit has really come alive with the recent trade that landed them Blake Griffin. They have won 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming at home. In those 3 home wins the defense has been excellent and I expect another big effort here as I look for them to ride the momentum they got going into the break. Offensively they have been shooting great, eclipsing 50% in each of their last 2 games, but also only scored 111 points in those two games. That kind of shooting isn't sustainable and chances are we don't see a 3rd straight game over 50%. Brooklyn just played a high-scoring game last night at home against the Rockets, but had really been struggling offensively of late. I could see them coming out flat here and that could easily lead to a blowout and even greater chance this stays under the mark. Give me the UNDER 209!
|01-30-18||Magic v. Rockets OVER 222||107-114||Loss||-109||8 h 39 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 222)
Houston is going to be without Trevor Ariza and more than likely Chris Paul. I don't think losing those two is going slow down this offense at all against Orlando. The Magic have been right there with the Cavs and Suns in terms of the worst defensive play of late and I don't see them keeping this explosive Houston offense in check, especially when you consider that Magic struggle to defense the 3-point line and no team shoots more 3's than the Rockets. These two played at the very beginning of this month and the Rockets scored 116 without James Harden (shot 44% from 3). The two teams did only combine for 114 points, but that was with Orlando shooting a mere 38.5% from the field. No Paul and Ariza takes away from the defensive mentality of Houston and I just don't see this being a game they are going to be all that motivated to lockdown the Magic. Give me the OVER 222.
|01-26-18||76ers v. Spurs UNDER 202||97-78||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 202)
I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs have had no choice but to slow things way down and rely on their defense to win games without Leonard. San Antonio ranks 29th in pace, a mere 17th in offensive efficiency and are 2nd in defensive efficiency. They lead the league, holding opponents to just 97.4 ppg (Celtics are the only other team holding opponents to fewer than 101.5 ppg. 76ers play at a little faster tempo, but are very similar otherwise, as they are 16th in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. With the game being played in San Antonio, the Spurs should be able to force Philadelphia to play at their pace and I believe that's going to make it tough for either team to put up a lot of points. Note the 76ers recently played at Boston and that came finished with a mere 169 points. Give me the UNDER 202!
|01-26-18||Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 211||109-100||Loss||-115||9 h 40 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 211)
With all the injuries that each of these teams are dealing with I think people just assume they don't have enough talent available to be any good offensively. Over the last 15 games these have been two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league with Memphis ranking 10th and the Clippers 5th. Defense has been optional for the Grizzlies and they come in having allowed 100+ in 3 straight games and face a Clippers offense that has scored 100+ in 18 straight. Only twice during this stretch has LA held an opponent under 100 points and in their last 3 they haven't allowed less than 113. I just think given how these two teams are playing this total is more than low enough to take a shot. Give me the OVER 211!
|01-25-18||Wizards v. Thunder UNDER 214||Top||112-121||Loss||-115||9 h 39 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214)
These are two teams that can play at an elite level when they are locked in, but both have had their struggles with consistency and playing with that same energy against sub-par teams. I think we get a big time effort here from both sides, as their's a lot of star power and the game will be televised nationally on TNT. Washington averages 106.5 ppg on the season, but just 102.6 on the road, where they only shoot 44%. OKC only gives up 100.0 ppg at home and outside of that 148-point outburst against the Cavs, the offense hasn't been anything special. In fact, they have worse than 43% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games, including a mere 42.6% in their last game at home against the Nets. Give me the UNDER 214!
|01-23-18||Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 209||107-108||Loss||-115||11 h 54 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 209)
It's no secret that the Celtics are one of the leagues best defensive teams. What I think a lot of people don't realize is how good the Lakers have been playing defensively here of late. In the Lakers last 8 games they rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (Celtics are No. 1). With this game being in front of a national audience on TNT, I think that only adds to the intensity both teams come out with on the defensive side of the ball. It's also worth noting that the Lakers don't play at near the frantic pace that we are use to without Ball in the lineup. What also gets overlooked is how much the Celtics are struggling offensively. Over their last 15 games only the Nets are worse in offensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 209!
|01-23-18||Kings v. Magic OVER 214||105-99||Loss||-115||7 h 25 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214)
The OVER is worth a look here in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Magic hosting the Kings. Orlando isn't a great defensive team and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency over their last 8 games. I don't see them being all that interested in playing defense against a bad team like the Kings. This is also a flat spot for them defensively off that upset win at Boston. Magic have allowed 112.4 ppg in their last 25 off an upset win as an underdog.
In Sacramento's last 6 games they have allowed 120 or more 3 different times and don't figure to be playing a whole lot of defense tonight in the second game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Charlotte. Orlando's offense has been much better of late and they are average 107.2 over their last 5. Both teams also rank in the Top 10 in terms of pace of play in their last 8 games. I think these two fly over the mark here. Give me the OVER 214!
|01-16-18||Wolves v. Magic OVER 217||102-108||Loss||-110||7 h 24 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 217)
Over their last 10 games, no team has a worse defensive efficiency rating the Magic and that's why I really like tonight's game against the Timberwolves to fly over this total. That horrible Orlando defense will be facing one of the most efficient offenses in the league in Minnesota, who is averaging 108.8 ppg and shooting 48% from the field on the season. T-Wovles have scored 116 or more in 4 of their last 5 with the only exception being 104-point outing against the Thunder in a blowout win. I know the defense has been better for Minnesota, but I don't think we get a big effort on that side of the ball playing on the road against a bad team, especially with how easy it figures to be for them offensively and the fact they have a much bigger game on deck against the Rockets. Orlando just put up 119 on the road against the Wizards and are averaging 112 ppg over their last 4. I think both teams hit the 110 mark, which is more than enough to eclipse this total. Give me the OVER 217!
|01-06-18||Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 218||98-116||Loss||-110||12 h 19 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 218)
The Timberwolves were just held to 84 points in last night's game against the Celtics. Minnesota simply didn't have it and you have to credit Boston's defense, which is arguably the best in the league when they want to be. I look for the Timberwolves to return to form here at home. Minnesota is averaging 108.9 ppg at home and will be facing a Pelicans defense that is one of the worst in the league, giving up 110.9 ppg. On the flip side of this, I also look for a big offensive night from New Orleans, as they come in averaging 113.6 ppg over their last 5. I know the Timberwolves have played better defensively of late, I just don't see a big effort on that side of the ball with them playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 218!
|12-26-17||Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212||115-106||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 212)
These two teams played a little less than two weeks ago and combined for 224 points in a 115-109 Bulls win at Milwaukee. I think we see a very similar type of offensive game here. Chicago only scored 92 in their last game at Boston, but that was a brutal spot for the Bulls. Prior to that Chicago had scored 110 or more in 4 straight games and have also allowed 109 or more in 4 of their last 5. This team is really shooting the 3-ball well and like to push the pace, which is ideal for high-scoring games. Milwaukee's offense has really improved since they made that trade for Bledsoe and they come in having scored 100 or more in 15 straight games. While the offense has been rolling, the defense hasn't been great, as they have also allowed 100 or more points in 11 straight games, giving up 111 or more in 5 of their last 6. Give me the OVER 212!
|12-25-17||Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206.5||Top||111-103||Loss||-105||7 h 5 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5)
It doesn't matter when these two teams play each other, the intensity level is going to be very high. It's only going to be that much more intense with this being a nationally televised game on Christmas Day, which is also the first time these two teams have played since they went to a Game 7 in last year's playoffs. The Celtics are only giving up 98.2 ppg and can be elite on that side when they are locked in, which I have to believe they will be today. Washington is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Their biggest problem is not showing up to play against bad teams. They lost that Game 7 last year and are going to give it everything they have here. Give me the UNDER 206.5!
|12-23-17||Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 210.5||106-111||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 210.5)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams going UNDER the total set by the books in Saturday's rematch. The Bucks and Hornets played last night in Milwaukee in a closely contested game, in which the Bucks went on a 9-0 run to close out the game and win 109-104. Any time you have a home-and-home like this, more times than not it trends to being a much lower scoring game in the second meeting, as the two teams are now very familiar with the sets the other team is trying to run. That's not the only factor here favoring a lower-scoring game. Charlotte lost Dwight Howard early in that contest and then in the 4th quarter, their best player, Kemba Walker, was forced out of action. Both are listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if either plays. Even if they both somehow get on the court, I still think we see these two teams go well below the mark here. Give me the UNDER 210.5!
|12-21-17||Bulls v. Cavs OVER 214||Top||112-115||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 214)
I've been on the Bulls a lot here of late (6x during their current 8-game ATS winning streak). I strongly considered taking them here as a double-digit dog, but I wouldn't be shocked if they struggled to keep this one competitive. A lot of their success of late has come against either bad teams or teams missing key players. They are also playing on no rest after playing last night and are catching the Cavs off a loss.
With that said, I see a ton of value here in tonight's total. Cleveland is averaging 111.2 ppg and while the Bulls have been decent defensively during their run, again it's been a favorable stretch of opponents. I think we could see the Cavs put up 120+ here and that should be more than enough to push this well over the mark. Note the Bulls are giving up 110.5 ppg on the road on the season. The other key here is Chicago's offense is playing at a completely different level than they were to start the year. Dunn is a major factor and they have some legit 3-point shooting with Mirotic and Portis healthy. Bulls have averaged 111 ppg over their last 5, while shooting 48% from the field. I see a shootout in Cleveland tonight. Give me the OVER 214!
|12-07-17||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 208.5||112-101||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 208.5)
I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Houston is right there with the Warriors as the most explosive offensive in the NBA. All those concerns about how Chris Paul and James Harden can coexist are an afterthought, as Paul has really fit in nicely. Houston comes in having scored at least 117 points in 5 straight games and as good as Utah can be defensively, they aren't as strong on that side of the ball on the road. I think the Rockets will put up another big number here. However, the key here is the Jazz are playing a lot better on offense than expected, as they have gone to a more up-tempo attack led by rookie Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 31 ppg on 53.3% shooting in December. While Utah only scored 94 last time out against the Hornets, they had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 6 and 9 of their last 10 overall. Give me the OVER 208.5!
|11-08-17||Lakers v. Celtics UNDER 210.5||Top||96-107||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MOMEY TOP PLAY (Under 210.5)
The Lakers come into this game having scored 107 or more in each of their last 4 games, but only one of those came on the road and that was against a Blazers team that was playing on no rest after a grueling overtime loss the night before against the Jazz. Speaking of Utah, that's the best defense the Lakers have faced away from home and they managed just 81 points in a game that featured just 177 combined points.
Boston allowed 107 in their last game at Atlanta, but that was a major letdown spot with the Celtics playing on no rest and the Hawks being one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to that Boston had held 8 straight teams to 94 or fewer points and that includes the likes of the Bucks, 76ers, Spurs and Thunder. Lakers aren't a great team, but teams are gearing up to play them because of all the Lonzo Ball drama with his dad running his mouth.
I look for the Celtics to really come out looking to make a statement here against LA. At the same time, I think the Lakers will bring the defensive intensity here and they are better on that side than people think, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 102 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 210.5!
|11-03-17||Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 196||109-100||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 196)
Last time out the Jazz won 112-103 at home over the Blazers, which saw them go OVER the total set of 191.5. The thing is the OVER didn't come until overtime, as the two were tied at 92-92 at the end of regulation. That's now 6 straight games where the final scored in Utah games has been 193 or less at the end of regulation. Even with that extra time, the Jazz are still only allowing 91.2 ppg at home. It's not just Utah's defense that makes them such a great team to back the UNDER with, it's the fact that they play at such a slow pace, the slowest in the league. Toronto is a pretty good defensive team in their own right, ranking in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors also average nearly 5 points fewer on the road than they do at home. Give me the UNDER 196!
|10-26-17||Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 211.5||104-103||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 211.5)
|10-24-17||Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 208||89-110||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 208)
New York's offense is one of the worst in the NBA and wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics held them to 90 or less here. Boston has started out just 1-2, so there will be no overlooking the Knicks at home tonight and while the defense should have no problem keeping New York in check, the Celtics are still trying to find themselves offensively after losing Hayward. They are also still missing Marcus Morris and likely without Marcus Smart, who didn't practice yesterday. Knicks should give enough effort here against a division rival to keep Boston from scoring too much to push this over the number. Give me the UNDER 208!
|10-18-17||Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 205.5||99-107||Loss||-110||11 h 32 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 205.5)
Tom Thibodeau had to be sick with how bad the Timberwolves were defensively a season ago, but they don't figure to struggle on that side of the ball this year. Minnesota went out an added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson to pair with youngsters Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. All 3 of those new guys are defensive upgrades. It won't hurt that the Spurs are going to be without both Tony Parker and Kwahi Leonard. Even minus two starters, San Antonio will show up at home and this team led the league in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 205.5!
|06-07-17||Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 227||Top||118-113||Loss||-110||10 h 1 m||Show|
50* NBA FINALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 227)
I would lean Warriors here, but I feel the real value is with the total. Cleveland is saying they aren't going to slow things down and will continue to play fast. I'm not buying it. The Cavs know they can't contain this Warriors offense if they let them get out in transition. They don't have to play at a snails pace, but they have to play slower. The pace of these first two games has been ridiculous. On top of that, we are going to get the very best the Cavs have to offer defensively at home in what I think most agree is a game they have to win if they want any shot at making this a series. At the same time, I don't see the Warriors letting off the defensive intensity after blowing a 3-1 lead last year. Give me the UNDER 227!
|05-25-17||Cavs v. Celtics OVER 215.5||135-102||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 215.5)
Boston played much better in the two games in Cleveland than they did in the first two at home and I think part of it is they are moving the ball better offensively. They simply can't play as bad as they did in Games 1 and 2 at home, at least offensively. These two combined for 121 in Boston for Game 1 and then just 116 in Game 2 and that was with the Celtics scoring just 86 and shooting 37.2% from the field. I look for a locked in Cavs offense with the chance to close the series and a good enough showing here from Boston to push this over the mark. Give me the OVER 215.5!
|05-23-17||Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218||99-112||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
40* NBA NO DOUBT TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 218)
After letting Game 3 get away from them after building a huge lead and watching the Warriors finish off the Spurs last night, I look for a pissed off and extremely motivated Cleveland team to take the floor here and 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time I also think the fact that Boston was able to get a win in Game 3 keeps them locked in and actually gives them some extra incentive here. I think we see the lowest scoring game in this series by far. Give me the UNDER 218!
|05-19-17||Cavs v. Celtics OVER 218||130-86||Loss||-110||9 h 47 m||Show|
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 218)
It came right down to the final seconds of Game 1 before it went over the total and I think that has a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in Game 2. I'm going the other way, as these two just combined for 221 points with the Celtics failing to score more than 20 points in either of the first two periods. They combined for 121 points in the 2nd half, which is a pace of 242. I'm not saying it gets to that mark, but I don't think Boston has any answer for the Cavs offense and can't be as poor as they were on offense in Game 1 at home. Give me the OVER 218!
|05-16-17||Spurs v. Warriors OVER 209||100-136||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 209)
I feel like the absense of Leonard along with a more focused Warriors team than we saw at the beginning of Game 1, is going to lead to Golden State playing the entire game at their pace. Keep in mind they put up 71 points in the 2nd half in Game 1. Leonard is a big part of the Spurs offense, but the system that Popovich runs is going to produce open shots, especially with the advantage San Antonio has inside. I think this one flies past the total. Give me the OVER 209!
|05-15-17||Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 211||105-115||Loss||-110||9 h 40 m||Show|
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 211)
This is all about the magnitude of this being Game 7 with a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line for these two teams. For most of the star players on both sides, this is as far as they have got in the playoffs. I think the pressure started to show itself in Game 6, when they combined for a mere 183 points. Thanks to the public's love of betting the OVER, we are getting a huge total here. Simply too much value for me to pass up. Give me the UNDER 211!
|05-12-17||Celtics v. Wizards OVER 216||91-92||Loss||-105||9 h 34 m||Show|
40* Celtics/Wizards NBA Playoffs Total No Brainer (Over 216)
I'm usually an UNDER player in the playoffs, but sometimes you just get a matchup like we have here. Both teams love to get up and down the floor, so there's a lot of possessions both ways, they can each light it up from 3-point range and neither is all that great defensively. Washington had scored 110+ in each of the first 4 games of the series before getting held to 101 in Game 5 (They eclipsed 100 points shooting 38.5% from the field). Only one game in the series has finished below the total set by the books and that was an epic bad shooting night for Boston. I'll take my chances these two eclipse the mark again. Give me the OVER 216!
|05-11-17||Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 214||114-75||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 214)
The deeper you get in a series the more familiar each team gets with the other side and what they are trying to do offensively. Houston is known for their up tempo style, but facing elimination, I expect a little more focus on defense and not going quite so fast early in the game, so they have something left in the tank in the 4th quarter. There's always a chance the Rockets could go off with the 3-ball, but San Antonio has held them to 101 or fewer points in regulation in 3 of the last 4 games. Give me the UNDER 214!
|05-10-17||Wizards v. Celtics OVER 216||101-123||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Over 216)
These two teams have combined for 223 or more points in 3 of the first 4 games in the series and the only one that didn't was in Washington, where the Celtics couldn't buy a basket. They shot 35.1% from the field, easily one of their worst shooting performances of the entire season. They shot 51.1% from the field in each of the first two games at home in this series and I expect a big night from the Celtics' offense in this one. Washington has scored now fewer than 111 points in the series. Give me the OVER 216!
|05-09-17||Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 214||107-110||Loss||-105||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (UNDER 214)
I absolutely love the under here in Game 5 tonight. I expect to see the same San Antonio team on defense that we saw in Game 2 and Game 3, where they held the Rockets to 96 and 92 points, respectively. These two teams are also starting to get really familiar with one another. UNDER is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets played in a Game 5 and 8-3-1 in Houston's last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Give me the UNDER 214!
|05-06-17||Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 208||102-91||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
40* NBA Vegas Total No Brainer (Under 208)
These two teams combined for 219 points in Game 2 after totaling just 200 in the series opener. I think with the series sitting 2-0 Golden State and it shifting to Utah for Game 3, we are getting some great value here with the total at 208. Utah knows they have to ugly up the game to beat this Warriors team and to do that they have to lock down defensively. They did a pretty good job of it in Golden State and I expect their best defensive effort here, as they know their season is all but over if they fall behind 3-0 in the series. Give me the UNDER 208!
|05-02-17||Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 208||94-106||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
40* Jazz/Warriors Late Night BAILOUT (Under 208)
Utah is going to try and slow down the pace of this game as much as possible. They aren't going to have the energy to play at Golden State's pace after just playing a Game 7 on Sunday against the Clippers. The Jazz will lean heavily on their defense. While I don't think it will be enough to win the game, I think they keep this from turning into a shootout and put the value here on the under. Keep in mind this Golden State defense is no joke and held the Jazz to just 74 points in a matchup this season. Give me the UNDER 208!
|04-30-17||Wizards v. Celtics OVER 216||111-123||Win||100||3 h 58 m||Show|
40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (Over 216)
This might seem like a big total, given the intensity teams play with on defense in the playoffs, but there tends to be a let down on defense when shifting to a new series. Both of these teams just went on the road and closed out their 1st round series in Game 6. Boston's last 4 games in their series were all low scoring, but that was due to the Bulls offense losing Rondo and just not being able to play at the same pace. Both of these teams love to push the pace and I look for this to be an entertaining game that sees these two combine for more than 220. Give me the OVER 216!
|04-21-17||Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 206||Top||104-87||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 206)
I'm not quite ready to count out Chicago without Rondo, but I think his absence has created some great value here on the UNDER. Rondo is a huge part of Chicago's offense and without him there simply won't be as many open shots. He also did a good job of pushing the ball up the floor, so expect a slower pace than we saw in the first two games of this series. You also have to factor in how big a game this is for Boston being down 0-2 on the road. They are going to give everything they got on defense. Not to mention these two teams are getting familiar with each other. Give me the UNDER 206!
|04-15-17||Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 199.5||Top||97-83||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
50* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs Weekend BEST BET (Under 199.5)
This is without a doubt my favorite play on the board in the NBA Playoffs this weekend. Toronto isn't viewed as a great defensive team and they weren't for a good part of this season. The Raptors defensive numbers improved drastically with the additions of Ibaka and Tucker. On the flip side of this, defense was a major part of the Bucks big run down the stretch. Milwaukee's got the size to matchup with anyone and make things difficult on that side of the ball. With the pressure of the playoffs I think we are getting more than 10-points in value here. Give me the UNDER 199.5!
|03-30-17||Cavs v. Bulls OVER 211.5||Top||93-99||Loss||-102||8 h 22 m||Show|
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 211.5)
I look for the Bulls and Cavaliers to have no problem eclipsing this total tonight. Cleveland comes in off an absolutely miserable offensive performance, scoring just 74 points in a 29-point loss at San Antonio on Monday. There were a lot of factors that played into that awful showing, including the Spurs being an elite defensive team and the Cavs just being tired from a brutal schedule. Prior to that game Cleveland had scored at least 112 points in 4 straight games. Note that they lost 78-108 at Los Angeles (Clippers) and the next game combined for 145 points with the Lakers. Chicago's scored 107 or more in 4 straight and should be able to keep that streak going, pushing us well over the mark here. Give me the OVER 211.5!
|03-28-17||Heat v. Pistons UNDER 201||Top||97-96||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
50* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year (UNDER 201)
I expect the intensity to be very similar to that of a playoff game tonight, as these two teams are both fighting for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami currently holds that spot, but they have a mere 1-game lead on the Bulls and 1.5-game lead on the Pistons. Neither team can really afford to lose this game. I believe it's going to lead to max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this one finishing well below the mark. Note that Detroit hasn't scored more than 96 points in each of their last 4 games and aren't expected to have Reggie Jackson for this game. Miami's offense simply isn't the same without Waiters and it doesn't help that Dragic is playing at less than 100%. Both teams are also playing with tired legs. the Pistons are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after a 4-game road trip and Miami is playing their 2nd straight on the road in a span of just 3 days. Give me the UNDER 201!
|03-27-17||Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 200||Top||100-108||Loss||-104||11 h 32 m||Show|
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 200)
I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere here with these two teams. Utah is holding on to a slim 1-game lead for the 4th spot in the west with just 9 games left to play, while New Orleans is clinging onto hope of sneaking in as the No. 8 seed, though they need to make up 4 games with just 9 to play. Unlikely, but with them coming off a 25-point blowout win at Denver yesterday, they aren't giving up just yet. Utah is a dominant defensive team and the Pelicans have been playing really good defense overall of late. I look for this to finish close to 190 than 200. Give me the UNDER 200!
|03-25-17||Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 202.5||95-108||Loss||-110||7 h 39 m||Show|
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 202.5)
I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere in LA this afternoon, as the Jazz and Clippers meet for the final time. This game is huge for both sides, as Utah currently has a 1.5-game lead over LA for the No. 4 spot in the west. A win for Utah and they have a 2.5-game with less than 10 to play. The Clippers can not only pull within a 1/2-game, but they would also earn the tie-breaker with a victory, as they have already won 2 of the first 3 meetings this season. These two combined for 122 recently, but had failed to eclipse 165 in the previous two. Given the circumstances, I look for this to well below the total. Give me the UNDER 202.5!