|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-21-19||Patriots -9 v. Jets||Top||33-0||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Patriots -9)
I'm rolling the dice with the Patriots. I think the big number and some injuries to the Patriots receiving corps has people thinking about taking the Jets, especially after New York just upset Dallas as a 7-point home dog last week.
I just feel the combination of MNF and people talking about how the Jets can win this game will have NE 100% locked in. I get the Pats are thin at receiver, but it doesn't matter with Tom Brady. If any team is dealing with injuries that should concern you, it's New York. Jets got 4 of their 5 starting linemen either out or question, as well as backup Kelechi Osemele. Same thing on the defensive line, where two more starters are questionable or out. They also got a ton of injuries at linebacker.
Patriots have gone 7-3-1 ATS last 11 on Monday Night Football are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and a ridiculous 40-15-2 in the month of October. Give me New England -9!
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks OVER 48.5||30-16||Loss||-110||30 h 30 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER NO-BRAINER(Over 48.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFL action. These are two teams that not long ago were known for having elite defenses, but that's not the case anymore. Both these teams are built around their talented mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson has the Ravens averaging 30.7 ppg and 451 ypg, while Wilson has the Seahawks at 27.5 ppg and 400 ypg. Both defenses have not been good. Baltimore is allowing 4.4 yards/rush, 61% completions, 7.7 yards/pass attempt and 6.5 yards/play. Seattle is allowing 4.7 yards/rush, 64% completions, 7 yards/pass attempt and 6.2 yards/play. BET THE OVER 48.5!
|10-20-19||Chargers v. Titans -2||20-23||Win||100||29 h 15 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (Titans -2)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans as a small home favorite against the Chargers. I love that Tennessee is making the switch from Mariota to Tannehill. I think that brings life to an offense that desperately needed a spark. I also have not been impressed with this Chargers defense of late and I don't think it's any better here with the guys they are missing up front on the defensive line. Titans on the other hand are making a huge addition to their rotation up front, as rookie DT Jeffery Simmons has been cleared to play. Tennessee drafted him No. 19, but had he not been coming off a ACL injury he would have been Top 10 and maybe Top 5. GIVE ME THE TITANS -2!
|10-20-19||Texans v. Colts -108||Top||23-30||Win||100||26 h 27 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/COLTS AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -108)
Even though a win here would propel Indy into first place in the AFC South and both teams are coming off a win against the Chiefs, I feel the public perception is that Houston is the better team. A big reason for that is the Texans got a big name quarterback in Deshaun Watson and the Colts are one of those teams that just don't wow you because they rely on their defense and run game.
I'll cover the most obvious factor favoring the Colts right away and that's Indianapolis coming off their bye. It's a huge advantage, especially this deep into the season and I just don't feel the public factors it enough into their handicapping. Not only does Indianapolis get an extra week to prepare for this matchup, this a definite letdown spot for Houston off the big win against the Chiefs and playing their second straight on the road.
Another thing here is Watson and the Texans offense has looked great the last two weeks, putting up 53 on the Falcons and 31 against the Chiefs. The thing is, both of those teams rank in the bottom 10 in total defense. Keep in mind prior to facing those two bad defenses they managed just 10 points and 264 total yards at home against the Panthers. They also had a game against a good Jags defense earlier in the year where they scored just 13 points with 263 total yards.
The Colts aren't elite defensively, but I definitely feel like they are one of the stronger teams on that side of the ball. You don't hold Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense to just 13 points in KC without being strong on that side of the ball. Indianapolis was really able to get pressure on Mahomes and play great man-to-man defense.
It's no secret the Texans offensive line is sub-par at best. Houston has only played 6 games and Watson has already been sacked 18 times. Watson, like Mahomes, also has really poor numbers against teams that can play quality man-to-man defense.Colts are also getting back one of their best defensive players in All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, who has missed the last 3 games in concussion protocol.Let's also not overlook how well the Colts played against Houston last year. They beat them twice and their lone loss was in overtime. They also won the most important game, taking out the Texans 21-7 on the road. Led 21-0 in the 4th quarter in that playoff win and outgained Houston by 100 yards.
Going back to last season the Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 off a bye. Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Colts -1!
|10-20-19||Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5||27-21||Loss||-109||26 h 18 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 50.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Sunday's matchup between New York and Arizona. I think we are going to have offensive fire-works throughout. This Giants offense cooled off the last two games, but that was against two of the best defenses in the league in the Vikings and Patriots. Rookie Daniel Jones has flashed and with Saquan Barkley back I look for them to take off. At the same time the Giants defense is still bad and will struggle against a surging Cardinals offense led by rookie Kyler Murray. GIVE ME THE OVER 50.5!
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers UNDER 47||Top||24-42||Loss||-110||26 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense.
Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47!
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5||Top||30-6||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.
The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores.
I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.
As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.
You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.
OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!
Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards
|10-14-19||Lions +4 v. Packers||Top||22-23||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL GB vs DET MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY (Lions +4)
I'll take my chances here with Detroit cashing in as a 4-point dog. Lions aren't getting enough love here coming off their bye week. Detroit has had Green Bay's number of late. Packers offense has not been very good and will be without star wide out Devante Adams. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but they have struggled against teams with decent quarterbacks. They gave over 440 yards passing last week to Dallas. I like Patricia and the Lions to win this outright. Give me Detroit +4!
|10-13-19||Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5||33-34||Win||100||27 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think we are going to see another shootout with the Falcons, who just combined for 85 points in a 53-32 loss at Houston. Atlanta is giving up 30.4 ppg against teams that only average 23.8 ppg. They are allowing 71% completion by opposing QBs and 6.2 yards/play (7.0 yards/play on the road).
Arizona's defense isn't much better. Cardinals are allowing 27.6 ppg and 408 ypg. They too are giving up more than 6 yards/play (6.4). They can't stop the run or the pass. They are allowing 4.8 yards/carry and 7.7 yards/pass attempt.
Also, both teams are dealing with some big injuries on defense. Atlanta has already lost defensive tackle Michael Bennett and safeties Keanu Neal and Johnathan Cyprien to the IR. Safety Ricardo Allen is questionable, as is corners Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson.
Arizona is still without suspended star corner Patrick Peterson (serving 6 game suspension) and corner Robert Alford (IR). Linebackers Haason Reddick and Terrell Suggs are both questionable among others. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|10-13-19||Texans v. Chiefs -4||Top||31-24||Loss||-119||93 h 58 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/CHIEFS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -4)
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.
I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.
I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.
Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.
As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.
Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.
Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!
|10-13-19||Redskins -3 v. Dolphins||17-16||Loss||-119||73 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins -3)
I'll take my chances with the Redskins and any other team that lines up against the Dolphins until Miami shows us they actually can be competitive. It's not just that the Dolphins are tanking, they don't have the talent to compete. I just look at how bad the Chargers are playing right now and they were able to beat the Dolphins on the road by 20.
I think because Miami is off a bye and the Redskins sitting at 0-5 and having just fired their head coach, we are getting value. Likely the last time that happens if Miami gets destroyed here. I think they will. Redskins have had two division road games and 3 home games against the likes of the Cowboys, Bears and Patriots. They aren't a good team, but are way more talented than Miami. Also, huge that Redskins are not going to Haskins and sticking with Keenum. Expect a big effort from Washington after seeing their head coach get fired. Give me the Redskins -3!
|10-13-19||Saints v. Jaguars -1.5||13-6||Loss||-115||24 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -1.5)
I think this is the ideal time to fade New Orleans, who come in having won and covered all 3 games with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterbacks. Sharp money appears to agree, as the line has moved in favor of the Jaguars, despite around 65% of the public action being on New Orleans.
I’m seeing a lot of Bridgewater praise after his big game against Tampa Bay, throwing for 314 yards and 4 scores. The thing with that, is the Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL, giving up 323.6 ypg. Quite a bit worse than 31st place Dolphins at 296.3 ypg.
In his previous two starts he had just 177 yards against the Seahawks and 193 against the Cowboys. He also had just 165 yards on 30 attempts in relief of Brees against the Rams. With or without Jalen Ramsey, this is a really good Jaguars defense. I think it’s going to be really hard for New Orleans to get that offense going.
I know the Saints defense has been unbelievable since Brees went down, but Jacksonville is not an easy place to play this time a year. With the temperatures expected in the mid 80’s, I think we see New Orleans give up a few more big plays than we have seen the last few weeks.
You have to love what Minshew has done in relief of Nick Foles and more than anything the Jaguar’s fans are 100% on board with him and this team right now. I think the fans show up in a big way for this one and this is a game Jacksonville desperately needs to win. Big difference between 3-3 and 2-4. Give me the Jaguars -1.5!
|10-13-19||Seahawks v. Browns +1.5||Top||32-28||Loss||-110||24 h 32 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Browns +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Seahawks. For starters, you got Seattle going west to east for an early start time, which is never easy. Seattle already did that once in Week 2 at Pittsburgh and were fortunate to beat the Steelers 28-26 and they didn't have Big Ben.
I also feel the Seahawks are overvalued coming off that 30-29 win at home against the Rams. They won that on a late TD after trailing the entire most of the 2nd half. They also had an ugly 21-20 win at home against the Bengals in Week 1 and lost at home to the Saints minus Drew Brees.
I know Cleveland just got embarrassed by the 49ers, but because that was on MNF they are even more undervalued. With Seattle likely down two offensive linemen and the Browns having a strong defensive front, I think it's going to be really hard for Russell Wilson and that Seahawks offense to move the ball.
At 2-3 and a road game at New England on deck, we know we are getting the best from Cleveland on Sunday. Give me the Browns +1.5!
|10-10-19||Giants v. Patriots OVER 41||Top||14-35||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41)
New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!
|10-07-19||Browns v. 49ers -4.5||Top||3-31||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* BROWNS/49ers MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with San Francisco at home against the Browns on Monday Night Football. I'm just not buying too much into Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore last week. That Ravens defense is not as good as people think. I think the key to the Browns offense going off in that game against Baltimore was due to their ability to get the running game going. I don't think they will be able to have the same kind of success on the ground against a really good 49ers front. SF is giving up just 75 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run. 49ers offense still put up 24 points despite 5 turnovers against the Steelers. Not to mention SF is coming off a bye, which is a huge advantage to them. Give me the 49ers -4.5!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||Top||34-24||Loss||-109||88 h 4 m||Show|
50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47!
|10-06-19||Bills v. Titans -2||Top||14-7||Loss||-110||94 h 38 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Titans -2)
These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.
On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.
I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.
Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2!
|10-06-19||Ravens -3 v. Steelers||26-23||Push||0||85 h 41 m||Show|
40* NFL (Ravens -3)
I just think Pittsburgh is getting a little too much respect here. I know they are at home, but without Big Ben given all that they lost offensively with AB and Bell, this is a 8-8 type a team. Baltimore got a humbling loss last week against the Browns and I think some of that was them suffering a bit of a letdown off that loss to the Chiefs. I just think Lamar Jackson and that offense will be too much for the Steelers to handle in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -3.
|10-06-19||Vikings -5 v. Giants||28-10||Win||100||85 h 41 m||Show|
40* NFL (Vikings -5)
I get the excitement around the Giants with them winning each of Jones’ first two starts, but let’s not overreact to a couple of wins of the Bucs and Redskins. Tampa doesn’t lay an egg in the second half they lose that game by double-digits. Last week they were basically gift-wrapped a win with Washington going to Dwayne Haskins (9 of 17 for 107 yards with 3 interceptions).
Those are also two sub-par defensive teams. Bucs rank 20th in total defense and Redskins rank 28th. Tampa is also 30th in points allowed and Washington is 31st. Minnesota ranks both 6th in total offense and total defense.
I know Cousins has not looked great early on in 2019, but I’m a lot more confident with the Vikings offense being able to sustain drives than I am with Jones and the Giants offense.
Don’t be fooled by the fact that New York only gave up 3-points last week to the Redskins. Washington ranks in the bottom 5 in both total offense and scoring offense. It was pretty evident to why Haskins had not played up until last week, the guy isn’t ready and honestly might never be. That same Giants defense let Jameis Winston throw for 380 yards and 3 scores the week before and allowed 405 yards and 4 scores to Dak Prescott earlier in the year.
The other thing is the Giants are just middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run and the Vikings come in with the 3rd ranked rushing offense at 155 yards/game (5.2 yards/carry). Also, New York just lost starting middle linebacker Ryan Connelly to a season-ending injury. Fellow inside linebackers Tae Davis and Alec Ogletree are both questionable to play, as is starting strong-side backer Lorenzo Carter. Give me the Vikings -5.
|10-06-19||Bucs +3.5 v. Saints||24-31||Loss||-120||85 h 37 m||Show|
40* NFL (Bucs +3.5)
I really like what I've seen out of the Bucs early on. This is a different team with Bruce Arians and I just think people are a little slow to buy into them because of Jameis Winston. Tampa has just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. They went into LA and laid it on the Rams last week. I know the Saints are off an impressive win at home over Dallas, but I think some of that was the Cowboys not being as good as we thought given their easy schedule and the boost they got from it being a prime time game. I just don't know how you trust the Saints with how much the offense has struggled to score with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Give me Tampa Bay +3.5!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 49||Top||29-30||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.
Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.
As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.
You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.
Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-30-19||Bengals v. Steelers -3||Top||3-27||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/BENGALS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (on Steelers -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against the Bengals. This just too good a price to pass up with Pittsburgh in a prime time game home. Mason Rudolph is going to be better than he was last week against the 49ers. Bengals don't have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball and are really thin up front on the d-line.
I definitely don't trust Andy Dalton in big games. He's still without his best weapon in A.J. Green and now must go without starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. If the Bills weren't so anemic offensively they would have lost by a lot more last week. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Steelers -3!
|09-29-19||Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints||10-12||Loss||-106||101 h 33 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/SAINTS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -2.5)
I get the Saints rolled last week at Seattle, but the Seahawks don’t look right. I get a lot of the yards Seattle racked up came late with the game out of reach, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Seahawks outgained New Orleans 515 to 265.
What really decided that game was the fact that the Saints scored 2 non-offensive touchdowns. They got a 53-yard punt return for a TD in the 1st quarter and a 33-yard fumble return in the 2nd quarter. Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 touchdowns, but was just 19 of 27 for 177 yards.
Keep in mind the offense was also awful after Brees went down in Week 2 against the Rams. New Orleans could only muster 3 field goals with Bridgewater running the show and he was just 17 of 30 for 165 yards. I don’t know how you can trust this offense at basically a pick’em against one of the better teams in the league.
On top of that, the Saints defense has not been good. New Orleans ranks 26th in the league against the run (134.7 ypg) and are 31st against the pass (319.0 ypg). Dallas has the 3rd ranked offense in the league right now, ranking 3rd in rushing (179 ypg) and 7th in passing (306.7 ypg).
You also have to factor in that these are two teams that a lot of people think will be a factor in the NFC playoffs. Given the chance that this game could potentially decide who gets a first round bye or home field in a playoff matchup, I just don’t see the Cowboys losing here. Give me Dallas -2.5!
|09-29-19||Redskins +3 v. Giants||Top||3-24||Loss||-100||42 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Redskins +3)
I'll take my chances here with Washington as a small road dog against the Giants. The public can't get enough of Daniel Jones right now and I think it has NY overvalued. Sure he played great in the win against TB last week, but they lost their best player in Saquan Barkley. Washington will be able to gameplan more for Jones, as they won't have to respect the run as much. I also think the Redskins are the better team despite the worse record. Giants defense is awful and I think Washington will have no problem moving the ball. I don't think it will be as easy for NY's offense. Give me the Redskins +3!
|09-29-19||Raiders +7 v. Colts||31-24||Win||100||42 h 31 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7)
I'll take my chances here with Oakland getting a touchdown here against a banged up Colts team. I think Indy is getting a little too much love right now for their 2-1 start. They beat the Titans and Falcons and were lucky to win both of those. I get Brissett is playing well, but this is not a playoff team without Luck. Neither are the Raiders, but I don't think Oakland is as worse off as this line suggest. Raiders may have played the best team from each conference the last two weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland won this game outright. GIve me the Raiders +7!
|09-29-19||Chargers -14 v. Dolphins||Top||30-10||Win||100||41 h 25 m||Show|
50* NFL PUBLIC BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chargers -14)
I'll take my chances with Los Angeles laying only 14 against the Dolphins. Unless I missed something, Miami still wants absolutely nothing to do with winning games this season. They are off to a historically bad start and I don't think it's a fluke at all. There is no talent on this team. They have scored 16 points in 3 games and allowed 133. I get the Chargers are banged up, but they got enough talent on defense to keep Miami off the scoreboard and Rivers is playing QB. Give me Los Angeles -14!
|09-29-19||Chiefs -6.5 v. Lions||34-30||Loss||-105||41 h 22 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ATS PERSONAL FAVORITE (Chiefs -6.5)
I'll take my chances with Kansas City winning by at least a touchdown on Sunday. Lions are not as good as their 2-0-1 record might lead you to believe. At the same time, the Chiefs are better than anticipated and that offense is going to have a field day on the fast inside turf at the dome. I also think KC's defense is better than it's getting credit for right now. They just played a dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson, who makes something out of nothing. Lions got Stafford playing on a bum hip and they have not ran the ball great this year. I don't see Detroit keeping pace with the reigning MVP. Give me Kansas City -6.5!
|09-26-19||Eagles v. Packers OVER 46||Top||34-27||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.
I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.
Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.
As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.
OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.
OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!
|09-23-19||Bears -5 v. Redskins||Top||31-15||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
50* BEARS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Bears -5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the spread as a 5-point road favorite against the Redskins. Usually I would be tempted to take the home dog on MNF, but I don't like this Redskins team at all right now. Washington just doesn't have the playmakers on offense or the talent on defense to be all that competitive, especially with all the guys they are missing right now. Bears offense has struggled, but the defense has been great. I think Chicago's defense dominates this matchup and we finally see Tribusky and the offense get going. Give me the Bears -5!
|09-22-19||Giants +7 v. Bucs||32-31||Win||100||113 h 48 m||Show|
40* NFL AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +7)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a touchdown dog against the Bucs. I love the fact that NY decided to bench Eli Manning in favor of the rookie Daniel Jones. I really liked what I saw out of Jones in the preseason and I expect him to play well.
As for the Bucs, I think they are getting a little too much love after beating the Panthers in Week 2. Jameis Winston can not be trusted to take care of the ball and this not a team that has really impressed on the offensive side of the ball. They want to be more of a running team, but are only averaging 3.9 yards/carry. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants won this game outright. Give me New York +7!
|09-22-19||Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5||Top||28-33||Loss||-109||110 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL WK 3 VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Kansas City winning by at least at TD at home against the Ravens. The public has really fallen into the Lamar Jackson hype and we saw that with how many people looked to back them last week as a double-digit favorite against the Cardinals. To me this line is begging the public to take Baltimore, which only makes me like Kansas City more.
I get the love for Jackson. He's putting up crazy numbers, but unlike a lot of people I'm not completely on board with him as a pocket passer. His huge stateline from Week 1, where he threw for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns is going to look a lot less impressive the more beatings the Dolphins take. Miami is as bad a team as I can remember. They have officially brought tanking to the NFL.
There's nothing wrong with throwing for 272 yards and 2 scores, but Matt Stafford had 385 and 3 scores against the Cardinals in Week 1. Not to mention they only managed to score 23 points with Jackson throwing for 272 and rushing for 120.
Last year Jackson only threw for 147 yards against a Chiefs defense that was arguably the worst in the league. He also only had 67 rushing yards on 14 attempts.
This Chiefs defense isn't elite by any means, but I definitely think it's improved over last year. More than anything, you have to factor in how much better their defense tends to play at home compared to on the road. The atmosphere at Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being their home opener and how excited everyone is about this team.
I think they can contain the Ravens offense and we know we are going to get a big game from Mahomes. I don't care what the Baltimore defense did in Week 1 against the Dolphins. I'm focused on rookie Kyler Murray torching that secondary for 349 yards. Ravens defense is not as good as it was a year ago. They added Earl Thomas, but they lost Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, and Za'Darius Smith. They are already down starting corner Jimmy Smith and backup corner Tavon Young.
One thing I've really been impressed with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid is how they are able to adjust what teams are doing against them. I think playing against this Don Martindale defense last year will definitely work in their favor. Give me the Chiefs -6.5.
|09-22-19||Raiders +10 v. Vikings||14-34||Loss||-130||110 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Raiders +10)
This might become a reoccurring theme for me, but I think we are seeing the Raiders way undervalued after a bad loss at home to the Chiefs. I was all over Jacksonville in Week 2 after they got embarrassed by KC. I just don't think people realize how good Mahomes is playing.
Outside of the 2nd quarter where Mahomes went off, Oakland's defense really played well. That's after a strong showing in Week 1 against the Broncos. I think the Raiders are better defensively than people get credit for.
Vikings are a good team, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win here by double-digits. I still have major concerns with the offense and it's ability to score. If Minnesota doesn't bring their "A" game, I think Oakland could win here outright. Give me the Raiders +10!
|09-22-19||Falcons v. Colts -1||24-27||Win||100||110 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)
I'll take my chances here with Indianapolis at basically a pick'em at home against the Falcons. I'll be the first to admit I thought the Colts were in serious trouble when Luck went down. I don't think I was alone. I still think there's a lack of trust with Indy in terms of how the public views them.
Not me. I like what I've seen out of Jacoby Brissett and this is a team that now wants to beat you with a strong running game and defense. For them to put up 203 yards rushing on the Chargers and then another 167 against the Titans, is real impressive.
Falcons are coming off a big win at home against a Eagles team that really hasn't looked great. They had to rally from way back to avoid losing as a double-digit favorite to the Redskins in Week 1. I still think back to Week 1 when Atlanta managed just 12 points against the Vikings.
Brissett is 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Falcons just 1-8 ATS last 9 with Matt Ryan as their starter against a team with a similar win percentage. Atlanta is also a mere 4-13 under head coach Dan Quinn in non-conference games. Give me the Colts -1!
|09-22-19||Bengals v. Bills -6||Top||17-21||Loss||-101||110 h 34 m||Show|
50* AFC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE YEAR (Bills -6)
I'll take my chances here with the Bills winning by at least a touchdown at home. I played against Cincinnati last week in my biggest play of Week 2 and cashed in an easy winner as the 49ers won 41-17 as a mere 1-point home favorite.
I'm not about to sit here and tell you Buffalo is a great team, but I love this matchup. Bengals offensive line has shown me nothing. Dalton has been under a ton of pressure and they had just 34 rushing yards in Week 1 and 25 in Week 2. All their damage has come via the passing game. Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and look every bit as good on that side this year.
Bengals won't be able to score and while the Bills aren't an offensive juggernaut, they likely need to hit around 24 to cash in a cover. I could see them scoring even more with a few big turnovers. Give me Buffalo -6!
|09-19-19||Titans v. Jaguars +2||Top||7-20||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
50* NFL TITANS/JAGS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jaguars +2)
I was against Jacksonville in Week 1 at home against the Chiefs and was all over them as a 9-point dog in Week 2. Given how big an advantage it is for the home team in these Thursday games on short rest, I would actually have Jacksonville favored here.
Two big reasons why I like the Jaguars last week against Houston, is I was confident Jacksonville’s defense was way better than it looked against the Chiefs (Mahomes will make any defense out there look bad) and I liked what I saw from rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.
While the concerns over the defense aren’t likely there, I still think people will be scared to back Minshew against a strong Titans defense. It’s not easy for any unit playing on just 3 days of rest, but I think it’s really hard on the road team to play well defensively in these games.
There’s also nothing about the Tennessee offense that gets me excited. They are as conservative as anyone with all the running and short passes they use. A lot of people will point to the 43 points they scored at Cleveland in Week 1, but I don’t think that Brown’s defenses is as good as people think and the Titans only had 15 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
Titans are not the team you want to be taking in this spot, as they are just 16-34-3 in their last 53 vs a team with a losing record. They are also just 4-12-1 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a losing home record.
I know it’s early, but there’s a big difference in the locker room for teams that are 1-1 and teams that are 0-2. Jacksonville will be treating this like there season is on the line. Give me the Jags +2!
|09-16-19||Browns -6.5 v. Jets||Top||23-3||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns -6.5)
I maybe could have got to taking New York as a small home dog with Darnold, but no way am I putting my money on Trevor Siemian. Going back to 2016, out of all the quarterbacks with a 1,000 plays, he’s got the worst QBR out of all of them at 42.1. Just slightly ahead of Brock Osweiler at 46.1, Eli Manning at 47 and Blake Bortles at 48.6.
I think the Browns defense is going to make it really difficult on this Jets offense with Siemen under center. I have to think they are going to load the box to keep Bell in check and dare him to make plays down the field.
I also think Cleveland’s defense is a lot better than people might be thinking after they gave up 43 points to the Titans. That was a 15-13 game in the 3rd quarter before Tennessee’s Derrick Henry caught a 75-yard TD pass. Browns started pressing and gave up 21 points in the 4th.
As for Cleveland’s offense, the biggest thing people need to realize with that poor showing is they were going up against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They were also 6th in the league vs the pass. I think the Browns thought it was going to be a lot easier than it turned out to be.
I think this is a good spot for the Browns offense to get back on track. I wouldn’t read anything into the Jets strong defensive game against the Bills. Buffalo’s offense looks to be every bit as anemic as it was in 2018. Jets defense should be improved, but you have to wonder how they can hold up with an offense that figures to struggle to score. Give me the Browns -6.5.
|09-15-19||Bears -2.5 v. Broncos||16-14||Loss||-110||90 h 60 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago bouncing back from that ugly showing in Week 1. Bears offense looked really bad in a 10-3 loss to the Packers, but I think people are really underestimating how good Green Bay is defensively this year. The game plan wasn't up to par and I don't see Matt Nagy and his staff laying another egg here.
More than anything, this is no where close to the Broncos teams of years past. Denver still has Von Miller, but are not nearly as good in the secondary Derek Carr only had 4 incompletions and wasn't sacked once.
I also did not like what I saw from Joe Flacco and that Denver offense. He made some really poor throws on what should have been easy completions. The offensive line is not great and they lack some serious playmakers at the skill positions. Chicago's defense will eat this offense up. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-15-19||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||9-27||Win||100||90 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL RAMS/SAINTS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Rams laying a short number at home against the Saints. I just don't get why there isn't more hype around this Rams team. Even after going on the road and getting a win at Carolina, which is not easy to do, people still aren't talking about this team like they were a year ago.
I love that, as it keeps the Rams focused on the task at hand. There's gonna be a ton of talk leading up to this game about the non-call on PI in the NFC Championship Game. I think LA will be sick of hearing how they should have lost and they make a statement here.
Let's not forget the Saints are coming off a emotional roller-coaster in their win on Monday Night Football against the Texans. They got 1 less day of prep and a long way to travel. I think they struggle to keep pace with the Rams on Sunday. Give me Los Angeles -2.5!
|09-15-19||Jaguars +9 v. Texans||12-13||Win||100||99 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL EASY MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Jaguars +9)
I'll take my chances here with the Jags getting a big number against the Texans. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the Jaguars ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and the fact they lost their starting quarterback in Foles. No way is the public going to want to back Jacksonville on the road and I feel the books are taking full advantage of that by posting an inflated number.
The biggest thing for me and the Jaguars lopsided loss to Kansas City, is I wasn’t the least bit surprised. The Chiefs were one of my favorite plays in Week 1. There’s not many teams in the NFL that can score with Kansas City. I’m not about to write off Jacksonville’s defense because they couldn’t stop Mahomes and all those weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, I still think it’s one of the more talented defensive units in the league.
I think that defense is going to have a big bounce back performance against the Texans. Clearly there’s still a lot of problems with the Houston offensive line if Watson is getting hit 11 times and sacked 6 times. While the Jags didn’t record a sack in Week 1, they put a ton of pressure on Mahomes. I think they can control the line of scrimmage and force some big turnovers with that pressure.
As for as the Foles injury is concerned, that’s a tough blow for this team. However, I watched that entire game and I was really impressed with what I saw from Gardner Minshew in relief. If wasn’t against a Chiefs defense that no one thinks highly of, I think people would be raving about how well this kid played in his first NFL action. I don’t care who it’s against, you are doing something right if you complete 22 of 25 for 275 against a defense that knows you have to throw playing from behind.
I get the Saints are great offensive team, but at the same time, this not as talented a defense without Clowney in the front seven. Not only did Brees carve them up for 370 yards and 2 scores, New Orleans averaged 7.0 yards/carry on the ground.
Best part about all of this is we don’t need the Jaguars to win. All they have to do is lose by single-digits and I think they do that without any problem.
|09-15-19||49ers +2.5 v. Bengals||Top||41-17||Win||100||86 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers. I was really high on this San Francisco team coming into the year and really wasn’t expecting much of the Bengals, especially early on without star wideout A.J. Green. I think we are getting a gift here with the 49ers as a dog.
I’m not sold on the Bengals offense. It looks nice to have a quarterback throw for 400+ yards, but part of that was Cincinnati having no choice but to throw with how their running game was struggling. Bengals only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts, which is 2.4 yards/carry. The other stat that jumps out to me is that Seattle sacked Dalton 5 times.
When you can't run the ball and give up a bunch of sacks, that tells me there’s some problems up front on the offensive line. Also, when you can’t run it makes it really tough in the red zone. Note that both of the Bengals TD’s came on long passes and one was on a flea-flicker and the other came via a bad play by the defender.
While the offense wasn’t great in the opener, the 49ers defense played great. They made life a living hell for Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston. Not only did they intercept him twice, they sacked him 3 times made several more plays in the backfield. San Francisco has a ton of 1st round picks in their front seven, so I don’t think that performance was a fluke.
As for the 49ers offense, they did left some plays out there they should have had. I think the offense is actually helping us here. They certainly wouldn’t be a dog if the offense had played better. I still like the talent on that side of the ball and expect them to bounce back with a big game here. Give me the 49ers +2.5!
|09-15-19||Bills v. Giants +2||28-14||Loss||-110||86 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +2)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a home dog against the Bills. Buffalo has no business being a road favorite here. The Bills pulled out a 17-16 win against the Jets in Week 1, but trailed 16-0 in the 3rd quarter before the Jets imploded.
No way do I trust that Buffalo offense on the road. Josh Allen threw 2 picks and I'm not really sold on the Jets defense. Giants didn't look great in a 35-17 loss to the Cowboys, but Dallas looks like it has the goods this year. New York was also a lot more competitive than the final score, as they were only outgained by 24 yards and actually had 2 more first downs.
Eli Manning played really well with 306 yards on 30 of 44 passing. If he keeps playing like that this offense is going to be just fine with how much teams have to respect the run game with Saquan Barkley. I think NY wins and wins big. Give me the Giants +2!
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||45 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL BUCS/PANTHERS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -6.5)
I know this might seem like a big number, but I would still take my chances with the home team laying less than a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. There’s such a huge advantage, even this early in the season, for the team that gets to host these games on just 3 days of rest.
I also just feel like the Panthers are the better team and there might be some overreaction to them losing at home to the Rams. More so with how the offense struggled to get anything going. Los Angeles has a pretty darn good defense.
I also am not reading too much into the Bucs strong defensive showing against the 49ers. San Francisco was really sloppy on offense and left a lot of points out there. Defense is also the unit that seems to have the most problems with playing up to their potential in these Thursday games.
While I’m not a huge Cam Newton fan, especially if he doesn’t run as much, I like him a lot more than Winston. He just isn’t good under pressure and Carolina has a really strong defensive front. Panthers did a really good job of limiting Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. Goff had just 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards/attempt). I could see this spiraling out of control for TB if they fall behind and have to throw the ball a lot.
Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game. Bucs on the other hand have gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 after giving up 30 or more and are 0-5 ATS last 5 games played on Thursday. Give me the Panthers -6.5.
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||3-33||Loss||-120||22 h 14 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/PAT SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Steelers +6)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers to cover the 6 at New England. Note that I like this before the Pats added Antonio Brown. I like it even more after the news. The fact that Belichick and Brady got Brown has to absolutely piss off the Steelers. Keep in mind they blocked a trade with NE because they didn't want him to go a rival. I think it's a bit of a distraction for NE and more than anything, I like the talent the Steelers have on both sides of the ball. Give me Pittsburgh +6!
|09-08-19||49ers +1.5 v. Bucs||31-17||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers at basically a pick'em at Tampa Bay. I really like Bruce Arians, but I'm not convinced he's going to have Tampa into a serious NFC contender in his first season. I don't trust Jameis Winston in the slightest with his decision making. As for the 49ers, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people realize. Jimmy G is a franchise QB and they got all kinds of first round talent on that defensive front. I think SF will be living in the Bucs backfield and could turn this into a blowout. Give me the 49ers +1.5!
|09-08-19||Lions v. Cardinals +3||Top||27-27||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona. I'm fully on board the Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray bandwagon. I think Arizona's offense is going to have a similar jump in production to when McVay took over that awful Rams offense a couple years back. As for the defense, they are better on that side than people realize. I absolutely loved the addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's still a top tier player in this league, but it's his leadership that will really help the other guys on defense. Give me the Cardinals +3!
|09-08-19||Chiefs -3 v. Jaguars||Top||40-26||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/JAGS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I'll gladly back the Chiefs at -3 on the road against the Jags. It will be hard for me to not take KC laying less than a touchdown this season. I just think this is the best team in the league and that's factoring in AB going to NE. There's no stopping this Chiefs offense unless they get ravaged by injuries. I think the big thing holding people back is their defense was really bad last year. I think it's going to be really improved, especially against the run, which is what the Jags want to do offensively. GIve me the Chiefs -3!
|09-08-19||Titans v. Browns -5.5||43-13||Loss||-105||15 h 56 m||Show|
40* TITANS/BROWNS ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Browns -5.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland winning by at least 6 at home against the Titans. I don't think this is going to be close at all. I get the Browns are getting a ton of hype, but for good reason. Tennessee just doesn't impress me that much and that offense looked horrific in the preseason. I don't see them coming out and lighting up this Browns defense, which I think is better than people realize. Give me the Browns -5.5!
|09-05-19||Packers v. Bears -3||Top||10-3||Loss||-110||261 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL PACKERS/BEARS NFC NORTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bears -3)
I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Bears at home. There’s a lot of really good teams in the NFC, but you could definitely make an argument for the Bears to be the team to beat.
I think Green Bay can sometimes get classed in the upper-tier of the NFC when they shouldn’t and that’s just simply the respect people have for Aaron Rodgers. As long as he’s healthy this team will be a contender, but winning on the road against a team like Chicago in a prime time game is asking a lot.
I get a change needed to be made, I’m just not convinced LaFleur is the answer. I mean it took this guy 3/4 the season last year to figure out that the Titans should be running their offense thru Derrick Henry. There’s also already some rumblings that LaFleur and Rodgers aren’t quite on the same page.
I also think Green Bay has done a poor job both with the offensive line and getting in the type of playmakers that can make a difference. People forget how much better Rodgers makes receivers look than they actually are. I just don’t see this offense being able to sustain drives against this Bears defense.
On the flip side of this, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly wow you on paper. Packers ranked 18th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last year. Bears offense is better than it gets credit for. Keep in mind they installed a whole new offense just last year when they hired Nagy to be their head coach. They should be a lot more familiar with the offense and that should lead to better results. Give me the Bears -3.
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3)
I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||Top||26-23||Win||100||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5)
As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.
Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.
I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.
If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||14-20||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles covering the spread in this one. The Saints starting out the season 9-2 ATS, including a streak of 9 straight covers. That run forced the books to inflate their lines and we saw them fail to cover their last 3. I mean they were laying over a touchdown in a meaningless Week 17 game with Brees sitting out for rest.
I'm not huge on teams that coast to the finish and there were some concerning signs with New Orleans down the stretch. Most notably that 3 game stretch where the offense went missing. I just think we could see them come out flat here having not played a meaningful game in more than 2 weeks.
As for the Eagles, they got the feel of one of those teams that is clicking at the right time and there's clearly something special going on with this team and backup quarterback Nick Foles. The biggest thing is how the defense is playing and I think they not only have a great shot at covering, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5)
I think because Kansas City kinda limped into the playoffs and their defense has been so bad over the course of the season, few are believing this team has what it takes to win it all. Last I checked the most important position on the field is the quarterback and in my opinion the Chiefs have the best signal caller in the postseason.
It’s not just Mahomes and what he brings to the table, this Kansas City offense is unlike anything we have seen before. The Chiefs eclipsed 25 points in every single game this season. KC has weapons littered all over the field and while the Colts defense has been playing great during their big run, I think they are going to struggle to slow this Chiefs offense down.
I’m also not solid on Indianapolis’ defense being as good as the numbers suggest. Don’t get me wrong, they are greatly improved on that side of the ball. However, during their 10-1 stretch, they haven’t played many top notch signal callers. The run includes games against Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Deshaun Watson (twice), Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.
The other huge factor here is where the game is being played. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play for opposing teams, especially in a game of this magnitude. The atmosphere is going to be electric in Kansas City and while this Chiefs offense is built to put up points no matter where the game is played, the defense really feeds off the energy of the stadium. I think because the overall numbers are so bad, people overlook just how drastically better KC’s defense is at home compared to on the road.
The other thing with the Chiefs is they have a top notch pass rush, which really makes it tough on opposing teams if they get behind. KC also is one of the better teams at getting off the field on 3rd down. The Chiefs win here comfortably. Give me Kansas City -5!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||44 h 52 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAVENS WILD CARD SUNDAY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I was on the Ravens in that Week 16 win and cover at Los Angeles and will gladly back Baltimore at less than a field goal at home. Given what we saw just a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how the Ravens aren’t a bigger favorite here. I think a lot of people are jumping on the Chargers in this one, mainly because the perception is that even though Baltimore beat them, LA is the better team. I also think there’s a lack of trust for Baltimore’s rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and a lot of trust for Philip Rivers.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was skeptical of Jackson being able to succeed at the NFL level, especially this early on his career. I thought he would need at least one season on the bench to kind of learn the NFL game and develop as a pro passer. Turns out that while he still has a long way to go as thrower, he’s more than ready to impact the NFL game with his legs. Jackson has rushed for 695 yards and accounted for 45 first downs with his legs (best on the team by 8). Since they went with him as the starter, Baltimore has transformed into an elite rushing team. In the 7 games with him as the starter, they are averaging 229.9 ypg. That would be unheard of if they did that for an entire season.
What this incredible rushing attack has allowed the Ravens to do with Jackson, is control the clock and keep one of the league’s best defenses fresh. It’s a recipe that can work. Baltimore not only beat the Chargers in LA, but they were a couple 4th down conversions by the Chiefs away from a win at Arrowhead.
The big downside is that this style of play will often lead to a lot of close games. I just think that Jackson and the Ravens offense will be able to generate enough points and more than anything, play keep away from Rivers and that Chargers offense. Rivers is known to press the issue when he’s frustrated and he threw 2 picks against this Baltimore defense in Week 15. No team is better at disguising their defense than the Ravens. I’m banking on Rivers making a mistake or two here. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/SEAHAWKS WILD CARD SATURDAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -1)
I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Dallas. The Cowboys have a much bigger homefield advantage than what we are seeing with this line. Dallas is 7-1 on their home field, where they are outscoring opponents on average by 6.5 points/game. Seattle’s not a horrible road team, but they were just 3-4 in true road games and their 3 road wins were all against non playoff teams in the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions. Two of those they won on last second field goals.
It’s no secret that these two teams are built on their running game. For me it’s not so much who has the better rushing attack, but which of these two defenses are better equipped to defend it. That’s where I think we see the big edge here for the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense has been outstanding against run. They finished 5th in the NFL, giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and 5th in run defense, allowing 94.6 ypg. Keep in mind this was with the Cowboys giving up 178 rushing yards in a game they didn’t show up to play in Week 15 (game really didn’t matter in terms of winning division. They had basically won the NFC East the week before with a 29-23 win over the Eagles). They also allowed 143 rushing yards in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Giants (win or lose, Dallas was going to be the No. 4 seed).
On the flip side of this, while Seattle ranks a respectable 13th in run defense, giving up 113.2 ypg, they are 30th in the NFL, giving up 4.9 yards/carry. Only the Chiefs (5.0 ypc) and Rams (5.1 ypc) were worse.
You can also look back at the Week 3 matchup. Dallas rushed for 166 yards on 19 attempts (8.7 yards/carry) and Seattle had just 113 yards on 39 attempts (2.9 yards/carry). The big difference was at that time Dak Prescott didn’t have Amari Cooper to throw the ball. Tight end Geoff Swaim led the team with 5 receptions for 47 yards. Despite only playing in 9 games, Cooper finished as the team’s No. 1 receiver with 725 yards and also led the team with 6 receiving touchdowns.
I think this time around the Cowboys will be able to put some points on the board and really let their defense feed off the energy of the home fans. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that is giving up 350 or more yards/game (Seattle allows 353 ypg). Seattle is also a team that has been overvalued quite a bit in recent playoff games. Seahawks are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||24-10||Loss||-110||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL VEGAS ATS MASSACRE (Vikings -4.5)
I think the perception a lot of people are going to have when they look at this line, is there’s value with the Bears getting more than field goal, as they see Chicago still has something to play for with the No. 2 seed up for grabs and most consider the Bears to be the better team at this point.
I’m not buying Chicago being all-in for this game. I think head coach Matt Nagy is saying all the right things here, with how they aren’t going to assume the Rams are going to win and will play their starters, but I’m confident the players know just how unlikely a scenario it is that LA loses at home to the 49ers.
Not to mention, even if they do show up 100% invested in this game, it’s not out of the question they see the Rams are in complete control early and decide to rest some guys in the second half. I also think they are going to be extra cautious with any injuries that some of their players are dealing with. For example, I would be shocked if safety Eddie Jackson plays even though he’s listed as questionable.
I really think the most important thing for the Bears was to lock up the No. 3 seed, which they did last week. That ensures that they won’t have to travel to New Orleans until at least the NFC Championship Game, if they were to advance that far.
Minnesota on the other hand is basically in a do-or-die scenario and you can count on a playoff-like atmosphere at US Bank Stadium on Sunday. I just don’t think people realize how big a home field edge they have. Since head coach Mike Zimmer came to Minneapolis, the Vikings have gone 29-11 ATS at home, including a 23-8 ATS mark as a home favorite. This also a series that has been dominated by the home team, as the home side is an impressive 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings between these two teams. Give me the Vikings -4.5!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +2||Top||34-32||Push||0||24 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR (Bucs +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog. I think there's no reason the Bucs should be a dog at home against the Falcons. While Tampa Bay comes in having lost 3 straight, one was a defeat at home to the Saints. The other two were on the road against likely division winners in Baltimore and Dallas (both 1-score games).
I'm not sold on Jameis Winston long-term, but he's been playing much better of late. The Bucs have turned it over just 5 times in their last 5 games after a ridiculous 29 turnovers in their previous 9 games. I also think a lot of people aren't aware of how much better this Tampa Bay defense has been playing since they switch defensive coordinators. I also think people would be shocked to hear that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer in 10 straight games. In their last 7 they have held 6 under 200 yards.
Atlanta's offense has not been up to par in the 2nd half of the season. While they scored 40 a couple weeks ago against the Cardinals, that's the only game in their last 7 that they have scored more than 24 and the 24 they put up last week was more of the Panthers not having Newton and not coming to play after getting knocked out of the playoff race. Give me the Bucs +2!
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-118||31 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs PK)
As difficult as last week’s loss to the Chargers was, I think it’s a gift to lay less than a field goal with the Chiefs against any team in the league and I'm just going to play the money line in this one. Kansas City is 11-3 and their losses have come by a combined 7-points against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Patriots, Rams and Chargers.
It’s not the offense that has let this team down in their defeats, as the Chiefs have scored a ridiculous 119 points in their 3 losses (39.7 ppg). They could just as easily won all 3 of those games and be sitting at 15-0. No way would they be only a 2.5-point favorite if that was the case.
Give Philip Rivers and the Chargers credit for making the plays they did, but so much had to go right for them to get that win. I loved how the Chiefs were able to get a ton of pressure on Rivers and had Eric Berry not been on a pitch count (didn’t play the 2nd half), they likely win that game. Berry was a legit difference maker in the 1st half and is expected to play a bigger role in this game.
I think the Chiefs are going to make life very difficult on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in this one and I just don’t see Seattle being able to score enough to keep this game close. Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now and my money is on him delivering a big time performance when the Chiefs need it the most.
It’s no secret Seattle wants to run the football. Andy Reid is 15-5 in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game as a head coach in the NFL. Chiefs are also 11-3 ATS under Reid in road games after scoring 25 or more in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS last 10 after playing their previous 2 on the road.
I also want to point out that while a win here for Seattle would be huge, they can lose and still secure a Wild Card spot with a win at home over the Cardinals in Week 17. Give me the Chiefs!
|12-23-18||Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers||24-10||Win||100||24 h 59 m||Show|
40* NFL ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Falcons -2.5)
I had Atlanta circled as a play this week after Carolina's loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football. I only like it that much more, given that the Panthers are all but throwing in the towel on the season by sitting Cam Newton to rest his injured shoulder. That tells me this team knew that their only hope of making the playoffs was to win that game at home against New Orleans. You could see it on the players faces at the end of that game.
I just think it’s a really difficult thing to go from playing in what feels like a do-or-die situation, not getting the job done and then have to come out and just play for fun the very next week. The life was sucked out of this team when they lost to the Saints.
Keep in mind the Panthers are going to Taylor Heinicke, who has attempted 5 career passes in his 3 seasons in the NFL. I just think he’s going to struggle to play well in this offense. Carolina doesn’t have a go-to receiver and you can bet that Atlanta is going to put all of their attention on Christian McCaffrey.
As for the Atlanta offense, they finally got back some of their mojo. The Falcons put up 435 yards and 40 points last week against the Cardinals. Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 231 yards and 2 scores and I look for them to have no problem exposing this Carolina defense.
I also want to point out that a big reason the Falcons have underachieved this year is the injuries they were dealt early on the defensive side of the ball. They are in a lot better shape on that side of the ball going into the final weeks. They racked up 7 sacks last week against the Cardinals and in just his 3rd game back after missing the previous 10 games, Deion Jones returned a pick for a touchdown. It really seems like that Atlanta defense feeds off of his energy.
Given everything I have covered, I actually think this line should be closer to touchdown than a field goal, as I think the Falcons are going to have this thing in the bag by the half. Give me Atlanta -2.5!
|12-23-18||Texans v. Eagles -1.5||30-32||Win||100||24 h 55 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Eagles -1.5)
I know Philadelphia has been a major disappointment this year, but for the first time in a long time, we saw this team resemble the team that won it all. The Eagles played inspired last week against the Rams and there’s clearly something about having their backs against the wall and Nick Foles at quarterback that brings out the best in this team.
I see no reason not to expect more of the same against the Texans, who I’m starting to think might be the biggest fraud of them all. The more you look back over Houston’s schedule, the harder it becomes to trust this team. Their only win against a team that’s currently in line to make the playoffs is a 19-16 overtime win at home against the Cowboys back in Week 5 before Dallas landed Amari Cooper.
Sure the defense is good, but I’m not so sure it’s as good as people think. They certainly haven’t played many top notch quarterbacks and when they have they have struggled. I know Foles isn’t an elite signal caller, but I think this Eagles offense will be able to move the ball on their home field.
My biggest concern with the Texans is they are struggling to consistently run the ball and are having an absolute miserable time trying to protect Deshaun Watson. The Jets sacks Watson 6 times last week and he’s been sacked 52 times on the year. If he’s sacked 8 more times over the next two games, he’ll become the seven NFL quarterback to be sacked at least 60 times in a single season.
This Eagles defensive front is not one you want to face if protecting the quarterback is a problem. Philadelphia only had 2 sacks on Jared Goff, but harassed him all night long. I think Watson is in for a long day and the more desperate team wins here. Give me the Eagles -1.5!
|12-22-18||Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers||22-10||Win||100||27 h 35 m||Show|
40* NFL SATURDAY ATS MASSACRE (Ravens +4.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and grab the points with Baltimore. I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction with this line on the Chargers. I’m not saying Los Angeles shouldn’t be favored, but 4.5 is a lot in a game that doesn’t figure to be decided until the 4th quarter.
I actually like the Ravens to win this game. Baltimore has been a different team since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. They are 4-1 under Jackson with the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City, where the Chiefs had to convert multiple 4th downs just to force extra time.
I’m skeptical of Jackson being able to do what he’s doing long-term, as mobile quarterbacks have a pretty short shelf-life, especially ones that aren’t built like Cam Newton.
However, that’s not a problem right now and he’s transformed this team with his ability to torment defenses with his legs. Since he took over at quarterback the Ravens aren’t just a good rushing team, they are elite. In his 5 starts, Baltimore is averaging a ridiculous 230.8 ypg.
It’s a deadly combination with a top notch defense, as the Ravens are able to eat up the clock and keep the opposing offenses off the field. No better recipe to win on the road against Philip Rivers and the Chargers then to keep No. 17 on the sidelines.
I know that there’s a ton at stake for Los Angeles in this game, but I’m also a bit concerned they could suffer a bit of a letdown after that big win over the Chiefs. Win or lose, they are going to the playoffs.
The same can’t be said for Baltimore. The Ravens simply can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs. I think they get the job done and worst case keep it close enough to cover. Give me Baltimore +4.5!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||92 h 26 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -2.5)
I'll take my chances laying the short number with Indianapolis at home. I just think this is the right spot to play against the Cowboys, as I not only think they are getting way too much respect here on the road against a red-hot Colts team, but I also feel like this is a big time letdown spot for Dallas.
With that win over the Eagles the Cowboys all but locked up the NFC East. They not only have a 2-game lead over both the Eagles and Redskins, but they will also hold the tie breaker against both teams, meaning the only way Dallas doesn’t win the division is if they lose out and either Washington or Philadelphia win their final 3 games. I think it’s pretty safe to say the Redskins won’t be going 3-0 over the final 3 weeks with all the injuries they have been dealt and the Eagles are likely to lose at the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I actually think there’s a really good chance that the Cowboys lose this game and still end up waking up Monday as the NFC East winners.
There’s zero doubt in my mind that Dallas hasn’t played these scenarios out in their head, which is why I think it will be so difficult for them to show up here with the kind of mindset it will take to beat a team that’s playing as well as the Colts.
It’s also worth pointing out that Ezekiel Elliott is banged up and while he’s expected to play, I got a good feeling the Cowboys are going to limit his touches after he had 40 last week against the Eagles. Not to mention the Dallas offensive line could be without stud right guard Zack Martin, who is dealing with a knee injury.
The Colts don’t have the luxury of taking this game or any of their final 3 off. It’s unlikely Indianapolis will be able to catch the Texans in the AFC South and one of the Wild Card spots is going to either the Chiefs or Chargers, which means there’s only one spot up for grabs.
This has also historically been a great time to back the Colts, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games off an upset win as a road dog. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas is just 2-4 on the road compared to 6-1 at home. Cowboys are also a mere 3-11 ATS under head coach Jason Garrett when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Give me the Colts -2.5!
|12-16-18||Raiders v. Bengals -3||Top||16-30||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL LATE SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Bengals -3)
I believe the books have completely missed the mark here. I get the Bengals come in having lost 5 straight and have lost Andy Dalton, but there's no way they shouldn't be closer to a touchdown favorite against the Raiders.
Oakland threw in the towel on the 2018 season before the season even started. Sure they got up the last two weeks at home agains the Chiefs and Steelers. They hung around with KC and upset Pittsburgh. I think it sets up a huge flat spot against another struggling team, especially with a big rivalry game at home against the Broncos next week. Might be the last time those two teams face off in Oakland and potentially the game the Raiders will play in Oakland.
Cincinnati isn't getting near enough credit for how well they played last week at the Chargers. They lost 26-21 and had their chances to pull off the upset. I've liked what I've seen out of quarterback Jeff Driskel and a talented Bengals defensive front should have their way with a banged up Raiders offensive line. Give me Cincinnati -3!
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||17 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Packers +6)
I just can’t pass up getting almost a touchdown with Aaron Rodgers, especially with the Packers’ backs against the wall. As sweet as it would be for the Bears to clinch the NFC North on their home field against Green Bay after 4 straight seasons of finishing last in the division, I got a sneaky feeling that Rodgers is going to find some way to spoil Chicago’s celebration.
I was actually on the Packers last week in their blowout win against the Falcons, as I expected this team to respond in a real positive way to the firing of McCarthy. I think Rodgers was sick and tired of his play calling and just the overall effort was way better. There’s also just something about this team, when it’s a do-or-die situation, they always seem to find a way to win.
I get the Bears haven’t forgot about that Week 1 loss to the Packers, but this far from a must-win for Chicago and there’s a chance they come out flat off that emotional win at home last week against the Rams.
While the Bears were able to upset Los Angeles, the offense didn’t have the same look to it in Mitch Trubisky’s return to the lineup. I think there’s still some rust he has to shake off and this Green Bay defense is certainly capable of slowing him down.
I also want to point out how not so far fetched it is for Green Bay to make the playoffs. There’s 4 teams ahead of them for the final Wild Card. Three of those are the Eagles Panthers and Redskins. Carolina has to play the Saints and the Eagles visit the Rams this week, while Washington is a complete mess with Josh Johnson starting at quarterback. That leaves the Vikings, who are only 1-game ahead of them and Minnesota has not exactly been playing great football of late.
It’s also worth noting that Rodgers has absolutely owned the Bears in his career. Green Bay is 17-4 (15-6 ATS) in games that Rodgers starts against the Bears and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts at Soldier Field. Give me the Packers +6!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||26 h 53 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3)
I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.
I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.
On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.
Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.
It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||29-28||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City as a short home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs dominated this series with 9 straight wins over the Chargers, but they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring teams by 14.0 ppg.
I just think the Chargers are getting a lot of love because of there being just a 1-game difference in the record for these two teams. Prior to their 3-point win over the Ravens, all 5 of the Chiefs previous home wins had come by at least a touchdown and they really dominated in all of those games.
I just think the percentages here are greatly in favor of Kansas City winning this game. Not only is it going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead for a prime time game, but I can’t stress enough how difficult it is for the road team in these Thursday games. It’s really hard on the defenses and I think that’s where it really plays into the Chiefs favor, as they got arguably the most explosive offensive in the league right now.
As for the Chiefs defense, they are expected to get back the heart and soul of that unit in former All-Pro safety Eric Berry. It’s completely up in the air just how good Berry will be, as he hasn’t seen the field since Week 1 of last season, but I can assure you the energy in the stadium will be different with him on the field.
Another huge factor here is how banged up the Chargers are at running back. Melvin Gordon and backup Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. With the way Kansas City can get after the quarterback with their pass rush, you got no chance against that defense if you don’t make them respect the run. I know the run defense for KC isn’t great, but that’s definitely one area where Berry figures to have a huge impact right away.
It’s also worth pointing out that Philip Rivers has simply not played well against the Chiefs. He’s 2-9 as a starter against Kansas City (3-8 ATS) and the numbers are down across the board. He actually had one of his better games against the Chiefs in Week 1, as he threw for 424 yards and 3 scores. However, the Chargers offense only had 12 points going into the 4th quarter.
Another thing that I think is worth mentioning, is KC beat the Chargers in Week 1 without a big game from Kareem Hunt, who had just 49 yards rushing and didn’t catch a pass. Mahomes did as he pleased, throwing for 256 and 4 touchdowns. Expect more of the same from the likely league MVP. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-10-18||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||7-21||Loss||-100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Vikings +3)
No disrespect to Seattle, but I just don’t think this team is the real deal. They have been very fortunate in a number of games and outside of their two games against the Rams, they really haven’t played anyone. The only team they have beat that currently has a winning record is the Cowboys and that was way back in Week 3 when Dallas was lost offensively.
Their 43-16 win over the 49ers looks great if you just focus on the final score, but they let Nick Mullens complete 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores. In their previous win at Carolina, they were outgained by the Panthers 476-397 and that was more of the Panthers beating themselves than anything. Even the game before that, where they beat the Packers 27-24 at home, they trailed 14-3 early and were down 4 late in the 4th quarter.
As for Minnesota, I think now is the time to jump on the Vikings after that ugly loss at New England. I think people are overreacting to that game. A lot of teams go to Foxboro in December and don’t play well. The Vikings only other two losses since Week 4 are a loss at home to the Saints and a loss at Chicago.
I also like the matchup here. I think Seattle’s defense can be exposed and they come in ranked just 17th against the run (116.8 ypg) and 18th vs the pass (266.5 ypg). On the flip side of this, the Seahawks offense is all about their running game, which leads the league at 148.8 ypg. The Vikings aren’t a team you want to line up against and try to pound the rock. Minnesota is 7th at stopping the run, giving up only 99.2 ypg and 3.7 yards/carry. Vikings are also 10th vs the pass, so don’t expect Russell Wilson to save the day.
History is also on our side, as you don’t want to be betting on the Seahawks off a big win. Seattle is a mere 4-17 ATS in their last 21 off a win over a division rival by 21 or more and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games when off a win by 21 or more against any opponent.
Minnesota is 20-8 ATS under Mike Zimmer when coming off a loss and 14-4 ATS when that previous loss was on the road. Give me the Vikings +3!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys||23-29||Loss||-115||25 h 36 m||Show|
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SLAUGHTER (Eagles +3.5)
Even though the Eagles have burned me on multiple occasions this season, I'm grabbing the points with Philadelphia. This is just one of those games that I don’t see being decided until the 4th quarter and that makes the 3.5-points that much more valuable. It wouldn’t surprised me at all if this thing came down to a field goal in the final minutes. Keep in mind it was 20-20 with less than 4 minutes to play in the first meeting between these two teams.
I know there’s a lot of excitement right now with the Cowboys and their 4-game winning streak, but I’ve still got major concerns with the offense. It just relies so much on the running game that they are going to constantly find themselves in close games. All 4 wins during this streak have come by 8-points or less.
As for the Eagles, I think there’s some legit signs that this team could be getting ready to peak offensively. The run game has been greatly improved since they started giving rookie Josh Adams the bulk of the carries. They also just recently got back Darren Sproles, who I think is going to be huge coming out of the backfield to negate all that pressure Dallas likes to bring. Wide out Golden Tate, who they acquired in a trade is also coming off his best game, catching 7 passes for 85 yards and a score.
I know it hasn’t been up to the ridiculous level that he was playing at prior to getting hurt last year, but I like Carson Wentz to deliver in the big game and there’s not been a bigger game to date for Philadelphia than this one. That’s another thing. Dallas is coming off a massive upset win at home and those are the type of games that are tough to bounce back from.
Unlike the Eagles, their backs aren’t up against the wall and it’s not easy beating a team from your same division twice in one year (Dallas won 27-20 in WK 10). In fact, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the same team in this series won both games during the regular-season.
It’s also worth pointing out just how dominant the road team has been at covering the spread. In the last 14 meetings the road team is 11-3 ATS. Philadelphia is also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games when revenging a same season loss. Give me the Eagles +3.5!
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs -6||24-27||Loss||-115||21 h 28 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Chiefs -6)
Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, where they have outscored opponents by 16.2 points/game. That’s not just the result of a couple blowouts either. All 5 of the Chiefs wins at home have come by at least a touchdown.
I don’t think it’s going to be any different against the Ravens, who I think are a bit overvalued right now. Not to take anything away from Lamar Jackson and his 3-0 record as a starter, but it’s come against teams who are out of the playoff race in the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons.
I also think we are getting a good price on the Chiefs here due to the fact that they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. There’s also going to be those that think the Ravens have a shot here because of their defense. They were saying the same thing when the Jaguars came to Kansas City back in Week 5 and the Chiefs did whatever they wanted in a 30-14 victory.
I also think there’s some doubters out there with KC now that they no longer have Kareem Hunt. I’m not going to say they are better without him, but I also don’t think his absence is that big a deal with this team. As long as they have a healthy Patrick Mahomes and all those weapons on the outside, defenses will have no choice but to respect the pass and that’s going to allow for whoever runs to pick up big yards.
The Chiefs rushed for 174 yards in their first game without Hunt, which was their best mark since Week 7 and second highest total of the season. The offense has also played the last few games without wideout Sammy Watkins, but he’s back practicing and expected to suit up.
As for the defense, I think the Chiefs are more than capable of slowing down the Ravens offense. While Kansas City is giving up 27.2 ppg, they are only allowing 17.6 ppg at home. That stop unit really feeds off the home crowd, which I think is the best in the league when this team is playing well.
I actually think it works in Kansas City’s favor that Jackson is getting the start, because I don’t think you can beat this team without being able to throw the football effectively. Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards in any start and has just 1 TD pass to 3 interceptions. If Baltimore’s defense struggles at all against that KC offense early, things could spiral out of control if the Chiefs get a double-digit lead and the Ravens are forced to throw more than they would like.
Chiefs are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs a team from the AFC and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a wining record. Ravens on the other hand have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. Give me Kansas City -6!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers -4||20-34||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Packers -4)
I'll take my chances with Green Bay covering the short number here at home against the Falcons. A big reason for that is the fact that they fired McCarthy. A move I completely agree with given how this team has underperformed.
It just feels like anytime a head coach gets fired in the middle of the season, they come out and play one of their best games the next time they take the field. I think some of that is they feel responsible for their coach losing his job and they also realize their jobs are no longer safe, so there’s an urgency to perform well.
I also think that as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting and the Packers are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, they are going to keep fighting. This team has been in this spot before with their backs against the wall and delivered, so they have no reason to not go out without a fight.
Another thing for me is I think this Atlanta's offense is broken right now. The Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark in any of their last 4 games. They have absolutely zero threat of a running game right now (52.8 ypg last 4) and last week against the Ravens were held to just 97 passing yards. I think offensive coordinator Greg Sarkisian is on his final straw and the bigger issue is the Falcons can’t protect Ryan. He’s been sacked 36 times in 12 games (previous high for a season is 44).
I personally have a hard time seeing them snapping out of that funk in this one. I just don’t like these dome teams playing on the road late in the year. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the mid to low 20s. That’s no fun to play in, especially for a team that’s not use to it and one that really has nothing to play for.
I know the Packers just lost as a big home favorite, but they are still 25-13 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback when the game is played at Lambeau Field and 23-13 in his last 36 as a home favorite.
Green Bay has also compiled an impressive 62-39 ATS record over the final 4 weeks of the regular season and are 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me the Packers -4!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* TITANS/JAGUARS TNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Titans -5)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans at home, as there’s nothing about the Jags upset win over the Colts that makes me think it’s a sign of things to come.
The reality here is the Jaguars had no business winning a game where they totaled just 211 yards and 6 points. Had the Colts just kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th down, they likely win the game outright. I also think Indianapolis’ offense is a bit out of sync with the injury to starting center Ryan Kelly, but either way they should have won that game.
I get that enough is enough for the Jaguars and wanting to go a different direction than Blake Bortles, but Cody Kessler is a downgrade at the position. Jacksonville is also running an out-dated offense with lackluster weapons outside of running back Leonard Fournette.
I just think given how hard it was for Jacksonville to get 1st downs at home against a mediocre Colts defense, they are going to have a horrible time putting up points against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee comes in ranked 3rd in the NFL, giving up just 315.6 ypg and are 6th in scoring defense, allowing only 20.4 ppg.
Let’s not forget when these two teams met up in Week 3, the Titans held Jacksonville to just 232 total yards and 12 first downs. Jags were without Fournette, but I don’t think he makes a huge difference with how little the Tennessee defense is going to have to respect the passing game with Kessler at quarterback.
You also can’t ignore just how big an advantage the home team has in these Thursday Night Games. These games are brutal on the road team and given how the Jags are basically playing for just pride with a 4-8 record, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they didn’t show up at all for this game. Either way, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown and not a field goal.
Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS last 17 home games, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jags are just 1-5-2 ATS last 8 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games on the road. Give me the Titans -5!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* REDSKINS/EAGLES MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Redskins +6)
I get the Eagles were able to rally to beat the Giants and all the talk is about how that win might have saved their season. I’m more focused on the fact that they let New York come into their house and take a 19-3 lead in a game they absolutely had to have.
I just think because the Eagles won it all last year and everyone thought they were going to be this juggernaut and defend their title, we are quick to look for any positive we can and ride with it. I mean they are almost a touchdown favorite at home with a record of 5-6 and having just failed to cover almost the exact same number at home last week against a worst team than the one they are playing.
The public has continued to back the Eagles to this point, so chances are they won’t stop now, especially with Washington playing now without Alex Smith. I like Smith and think he can help a team win a lot of regular-season games, but I don’t think he’s light years better than Colt McCoy.
McCoy did struggle some against Dallas, but that’s a really good Cowboys defense. The Eagles simply aren’t that good of a defensive team. They come in ranked 28th against the pass (294.4 ypg) and are giving up a ridiculous 134.6 rushing yards/game over their last 6 contests. I think Adrian Peterson will be ready to rock on Monday Night Football and Washington will be able to put up some points.
On the flip side of this, I think the Redskins defense is more than capable of slowing down this Eagles offensive attack. Philadelphia’s two highest scoring games this season have both come against the Giants. They haven’t scored more than 24 in any other game and 7 times have failed to score more than 21 points.
I think there’s a really good shot Washington can at worst keep this within 6-points. In fact, I think they are going to pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me the Redskins +6.
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-02-18||Panthers -3 v. Bucs||17-24||Loss||-125||91 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers -3)
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* TITANS/TEXANS MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Texans -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Houston to win by 4 or more at home against the Titans. I know the Texans keep finding themselves in close games, which might have some thinking to take the points, but I just can't stomach betting an offense like Tennessee on the road in a prime time game against a defense as talented as the Texans.
What this line suggest is that these two would be a pick'em if the game was played on a neutral field. I have Houston rated way ahead of the Titans, as I think the days of consistently winning games with your defense are numbered. Tennessee has two games this year where they failed to reach 85 yards passing. They had just 176 last week at Indy and that's not a top-tier secondary.
Houston comes in 13th against the pass and are 6th against the run. While they scored 20 in the previous meeting between these two teams back in Week 2, they scored on a 66-yard pass on a fake punt and had just 283 total yards for the game (Houston had 437). Titans only averaging 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg on the road.
Houston is averaging 25.7 ppg and 383 ypg at home. I just think they will have the much easier time scoring and there's a much higher chance they win by a touchdown than lose or win by 3 or less. Give me the Texans!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-25-18||Raiders v. Ravens -10.5||17-34||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -10.5)
I know laying big numbers in the NFL isn't a good recipe for success, but the more I look into this game the more I like Baltimore to win here in a blowout. I just don't think it's asking the Ravens that much to win here by two touchdowns.
Oakland maybe it pretty clear that they weren't interested in winning games this year, when they traded Mack right before the season started. That was just the start, as they later traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Sure they won at Arizona last week, but needed a last-second field goal to do so. The two previous games they were outscored 54-9.
This team had to pull Derek Carr a few weeks ago on MNF against the 49ers because the o-line couldn't block. Baltimore's defensive front is every bit as nasty and strong as SF, so I have a really hard time seeing the Raiders putting together too many scoring drives.
On the flip side of this, the Ravens have Lamar Jackson at quarterback, who made his debut last week against the Bengals. Jackson rushed for 119 yards and threw for 150 on 13 of 19 passing. He wasn't just a force on the ground, but Baltimore as a team put up 267 yards rushing, averaging 5 yards/rush.
I got my concerns with Jackson, as you can only run for so long at the QB position. Good defenses are going to make you pay for running it and also not let you out of the pocket. Lucky for Jackson, Oakland is not a good defense and are 31st in the league vs the run, allowing 142.3 ypg. I think Ravens break a bunch of big TD runs and blow this thing wide-open. Give me Baltimore -10.5!
|11-22-18||Bears -2.5 v. Lions||Top||23-16||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|11-19-18||Chiefs +3 v. Rams||51-54||Push||0||9 h 32 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/RAMS MNF ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs +3)
I think the biggest misconception here is that the Chiefs are the only team with a bad defense, when you could argue that the Rams are every bit as bad. Los Angeles went out an added all these big names to their defense and then proceeded to hold the Raiders to 13 points in Week 1 and shutout the Cardinals in Week 2. The public saw those two results as confirmation to their belief that the Rams were this great defensive team. Turns out it was more of just Oakland and Arizona being bad offensive teams.
They have not performed well when matched up against good offensive teams and while they have played some good offenses to this point, they haven’t seen anything like what this Chiefs offense brings to the table. The closest thing would be the Saints and New Orleans put up 45 on them and won by 10. Not to mention the Chiefs are expected to get back wide out Sammy Watkins.
While KC is adding a piece back to their offense, the Rams are going to have to learn to adjust to life without wide out Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in last week’s win over Seattle. While Kupp is third in receptions behind Cooks and Woods, he leads the team with 6 touchdowns and behind only Gurley in yards after the catch.
I just don’t think people understand how valuable he is to that offense. He’s like your Wes Welker of old Patriots’ offenses. He’s one guy you really had to account for and now that’s one more guy on defense focusing on stopping Todd Gurley.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Chiefs defense, but they have been playing better as the season progresses. They have been getting a lot more production out of their young guys and have one of the best pass rushes in the game. Dee Ford is putting up ridiculous numbers and Justin Houston returned last week and made a big impact. Not to mention defensive end Chris Jones has a sack in 6 straight games. If they can put together a game-plan to simply slow Gurley down, they might just turn this thing into a blowout. Give me the Chiefs +3!
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-120||29 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Eagles +9)
I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction on both sides. I think a lot of those people that backing the Eagles and believed they would turn this thing around, gave up after the ugly home loss to Dallas. On the flip side, the perception on the Saints couldn’t be higher. In game where they were suppose to struggle, they won by 37 on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have covered 7 straight. Those that have been riding New Orleans and there’s a lot of them, won’t be jumping off the bandwagon.
I think it forced the books to set a very favorable line for the Eagles. I’m not saying Philadelphia will win this game, but it’s hard to not like them to at least make it competitive and keep it within a touchdown. Keep in mind we are talking about an Eagles team that hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown all season. A lot of people ignore how close this team is to being right there with the other top teams in the NFC.
Another crazy thing with this team is this marks the first time this season that they will be an underdog at kickoff. If you remember back to last year, it was the underdog role that brought this team together, as everyone wrote them off after the Wentz injury. I mean this is it for the Eagles. They lose this game and fall to 4-6, they would basically have to win out to have a shot and they know it. I know everyone to this point has been jacked up to face defending champs, but at some point the Saints are going to lay an egg and this might just be that spot.
New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has guided his team to a mere 15-25 ATS record when playing teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. Saints are also just 4-12 ATS under Payton when playing at home after a game where they posted a +2 turnover margin or better. Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs strong passing teams (avg. 235+ ypg) and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the second half of the season vs teams scoring 29 or more points/game. Give me Philadelphia +9!
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||26 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)
I'll take my chances with the Colts at basically a pick'em. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots.
I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady.
I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race.
I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career.
There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg.
Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -1!
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-100||26 h 40 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3)
I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.
Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.
I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.
It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.
The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.
With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-115||34 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.
The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.
He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.
Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.
The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!
|11-11-18||Cowboys v. Eagles -7||27-20||Loss||-120||27 h 5 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot.
I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week.
I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run.
I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke.
Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field.
I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home.
I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7!
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||26-29||Push||0||92 h 4 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).
There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.
Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.
The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.
I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.
I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.
If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.
|11-11-18||Falcons v. Browns +6.5||16-28||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.
I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.
I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).
I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins. Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.
More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys -4.5||28-14||Loss||-114||10 h 44 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/TITANS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cowboys -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home. In year’s past the Cowboys have struggled to play well at home, but that’s not been the case in 2018. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 14.0 ppg (28.7 - 14.7). I really like the addition of Amari Cooper and what he can do for this offense. I think getting him during their bye week will give him enough time to get up to speed for this game.
With that said, I would have probably leaned towards Dallas had they not acquired Cooper in a trade. Mainly because I just can’t stomach betting the Titans and that horrible offense on the road. Tennessee has the same record as the Cowboys at 3-4, but they also could be 0-7 right now, as all 3 wins have come by exactly 3-points.
In today’s NFL, where it’s setup for the offenses to excel, the Titans have had two games where they didn’t throw for more than 85 yards. A few weeks back against the Ravens, they ended the game with 106 total yards.
I think people understand that Dallas’ defense has been playing well, but I think some might be surprised with just how good it’s been. The Cowboys come into this game allowing just 17.6 ppg (2nd) and 313.7 ypg (3rd). They have the 9th ranked run defense (96.3 ypg) and 3rd ranked pass defense (234.4 ypg).
Unless the Titans magically morph into a different offense than the one that’s played the first half of the season, it’s going to be a struggle for them to get first downs.
I know Dallas’ offense isn’t all that great, but they at least got potential and a true difference-maker in running back Ezekiel Elliott. Any impact that Cooper has is going to help this offense, as it will keep teams from just loading the box. I just think Dallas will score enough here to win by at least a touchdown. Give me the Cowboys -4.5!
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road.
New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5.
I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5!
|11-04-18||Texans +1 v. Broncos||19-17||Win||100||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Texans +1)
I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here.
Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams.
The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is.
All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room.
Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team.
I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town.
Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory. Give me Houston +1!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52