|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-17-19||Royals v. A's -1.5||1-2||Loss||-130||10 h 38 m||Show|
The As were upset yesterday by the Royals and will be ready for big bounce back here today. Note: The Athletics have won 7 straight as a 140-plus favorite after they lost by one run, winning by an average of 8.43 runs per game qualifying as a strong runline situation.
OAKLAND is 31-7 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.3 rpg.
MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +100 or higher) (KANSAS CITY) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start are 15-43 L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Oakland As on the runline -1.5
|09-17-19||Padres v. Brewers -132||1-3||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
Brewers Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.75 ERA, 136 SO)The All-Star right-hander will be on a limited pitch count in his first start since he strained his left oblique pitching at Arizona on July 21. Veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez will follow. Im betting on Woodruff and Gonzalez having the edge over what has looked like a fatigued Padres pitcher in Paddock who is expected to be shut down following Tuesday's start. He has already thrown 45 2/3 more innings than he did last season between Class-A and Double-A.
Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 overall.Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 12-1 in Woodruffs last 13 home starts.Brewers are 8-1 in Woodruffs last 9 starts during game 2 of a seriesBrewers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.Brewers are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.WOODRUFF is 10-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 10-0 against the money line at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record)
Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML
|09-17-19||Sparks +2.5 v. Sun||75-84||Loss||-110||9 h 49 m||Show|
WNBA Playoffs - Semifinals - Best of 5 - Game 1
This matchup features two of the best front courts in the league, but Im betting what I believe is the superior D, to win this series and game 1. Sparks have my support getting points. Note: Sparks are one of the league's original franchises and have garnered three WNBA titles , and have been to the Finals five times and have an overall culture of winning, and obvious play off experience which gives them in an edge in this environment vs a Connecticut side, that just cant matchup to those numbers,
WNBA team (CONNECTICUT) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games are 4-26 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Sparks to cover
|09-16-19||Browns v. Jets +3||23-3||Loss||-110||108 h 18 m||Show|
The public was all over the Cleveland in game 1 of the season, and they lost big time when the Browns crapped the bed in their opener for their 19th loss in 21 seasons in their opening game(includes a tie). Im still not a believer in a team with no winning culture in place, and despite of the upgrades and fantasy like dreams of a Super Bowl by the pundits and their supporters, I believe we should all temper our expectations at least for now on how good the Browns will be this season. I also don't think they deserve to road favs in this spot vs a hard nosed NY Jets team that matches up fairly well against them. With that said, Im recommending we take the points here tonight.
Cleveland 0-3 ATS L/3 Monday night tilts. NY Jets are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS L/14 coming off a loss.
Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 35 points in their previous game, in conference games are 4-24 SU L/36 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Favorites (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-40 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|09-16-19||Reds +159 v. Cubs||2-8||Loss||-100||8 h 35 m||Show|
Cubs left-hander Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA) has suffered three consecutive losses, including a 4-0 defeat in his last outing Wednesday against the San Diego Padres. Hamels has a 7.58 ERA (25 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings) in his last seven starts and is fade material in his current form. HAMELS is 1-7 against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record )
After the Cubs took part in a 16-6 slugfest yesterday that they won , Im betting they are in a letdown spot here. Note: MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 8 runs or more are 41-22 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.CHICAGO CUBS are also 1-7 against the money line after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games this season.
Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the ML
|09-15-19||Eagles -1 v. Falcons||20-24||Loss||-107||10 h 0 m||Show|
Philadelphia's Darren Sproles, Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders combined for 116 yards rushing on 26 carries in Week 1 against Washington, helping the Eagles rally from a 17-point deficit for a 32-27 win. This Philadelphia team looked rejuvenated and like they were on a mission, and have momentum and chip on their shoulders coming into this game against the Atlanta Hawks a team that coming off a ugly looking 28-12 defeat at Minnesota in the season opener. Note: The Falcons were gashed by the Vikings for 172 yards on the ground and the three headed monster of Sproles, Howard and Sanders should be ready for a field day here on Sunday night Football.
Quinn the Falcons HC has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs and is fade material according to my power rankings.
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU/ATS away vs a side of a away SU loss.Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
NFL Underdogs (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-32 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|09-15-19||Bears -2.5 v. Broncos||16-14||Loss||-110||82 h 3 m||Show|
The Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos are both off opening week losses, and will be primed to bounce back.
The Bears offense managed just 254 yards in their opening loss last Thursday, but the defense held the Packers to 213 yards, including allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for just 166 yards and Im betting they will be key to slowing down QB Joe Flacco and the Broncos here in this tilt. The Bears have had extra rest , while Denver is on short rest. Note: Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Green By is 3-0 ATS vs teams coming off aMonday night game.
Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CHICAGO is 20-6 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992.Since 2014, a team like the Bears that did not cover at home in Week 1, and is on the road in Week 2, is 22-7 ATS (75%) in that Week 2 away tilt.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons and is is 0-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Home teams (DENVER) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in non-conference games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Chicago Bears to cover
|09-15-19||White Sox +110 v. Mariners||10-11||Loss||-100||5 h 55 m||Show|
White Sox starter Ivan Nova(10-12, 4.69 ERA, 103 SO)won for the 10th time on Tuesday against the Royals, marking the fifth season he has recorded double-digit wins. The victory also ended a stretch of three straight losses for Nova after a 5-0 run. Im betting on him getting us to the promised land here today in Seattle vs the lowly Mariners.
NOVA is 15-8 against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The White Sox are 4-0 on the ML in franchise history as a dog with Ivan Nova when they scored more than six runs in his last start and they won.
Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the ML
|09-15-19||Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5||28-10||Win||100||7 h 47 m||Show|
Andy Reids explosive KC Cheifs jumped out of the shoot last week, with a 40-27 win at Jacksonville . But it must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 7 of their L/10 after putting 40 or more points on the board, thanks in part to the lines makers over adjusting because of recency bias. Meanwhile, Oakland also won their first game 24-16 with good offensive management and a strong looking D. With the departure of Antonio Brown and a limited experienced WR group, Im expecting alot of short passes and clock burning running plays, to limit their output production vs what Im betting will be a more viable KC D this season. Note: The Raiders have gone under in back to back division games and have gone under in 6 of their L/8 as 7 point or more home dogs. Under is 8-3-1 in Raiders last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Under is 6-1-1 in Raiders last 8 games following a straight up win.
OAKLAND is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 11-2 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 21-9 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.4 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (OAKLAND) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 89-42 L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on the UNDER
|09-15-19||Storm v. Sparks -6.5||69-92||Win||100||5 h 13 m||Show|
WNBA Playoffs - 2nd Round - Single Elimination
Today Im betting on the LA Sparks continue their home dominance Sunday against the defending champion Seattle Storm in the second round of the WNBA playoffs. L.A. was 15-2 at home during the regular season and has not lost at Staples Center since June 18. Two of those home victories came against No. 6 seed Seattle and a 3rd win is coming today.
LOS ANGELES is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with the average diff coming in at +9.7 ppg. LOS ANGELES is 8-1 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 73+ points/game after 15+ games this season with average ppg diff of +14.1 ppg.
WNBA Road underdogs (SEATTLE) - revenging a loss versus opponent by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% after 15 or more games are 1-33 SU L/5 seasons.
Play on the LA Sparks to cover
|09-15-19||Pirates v. Cubs -1.5||6-16||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
Cubs starter Jose Quintana (13-8, 4.15 ERA, 143 SO) has seen his team supply him with a average seven runs a game in all his starts since the All-Star break, helping him to a 7-1 record in the second half. Today Im betting on more huge run support. Note:The Cubs are 8-0 on the ML as a home 200+ favorite after they won by five-plus runs and it is not a series opener. winning by an average of 6.4 runs per game and thus qualify as a solid runline favs in a favourable matchup vs the Pirates.
Cubs are 8-0 in Quintanas last 8 starts vs. National League Central.Cubs are 59-19 in their last home games vs. a team with a losing record.Cubs are 5-0 in Quintanas last 5 starts vs. Pirates.Pirates are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
Play on the Chicago Cubs -1.5 runline
|09-15-19||Vikings v. Packers -3||16-21||Win||100||100 h 32 m||Show|
This is a battle of NFC North competitors here this Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings and Green put their early season undefeated records on the line. Both are off wins , but the Packers looked better in their win than the Vikings who were out gained 345-269 but still managed to win vs Atlanta. Here today Im betting home field advantage will hold. Hey, I know the Packers have not beaten the Vikings since the 2016 season, but that means this crowd and the Packers are going to be up for this tilt and play with a lot of energy. Note: Rodgers is 23-6-1 SU in his career in home division games, and 11-0-1 SU in the first 6 games of the season at home vs division rivals. We all know how proud Aaron Rodgers is and how much pride this franchise has as a whole. Its early and I could change my mind, based as the season progresses, but there seems to be something special abut this group of Cheese Heads, and for now Im betting on that to be on full display here today.
Minnesota has only won 2 of their L/11 road openers vs division opponents.Vikings are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover
|09-15-19||Cowboys v. Redskins OVER 46.5||31-21||Win||100||53 h 23 m||Show|
These long time rivals Washington and Dallas saw alot of yards get accumulated in their week 1 games. The Redskins combined for 834 combined yards, and the Cowboys combined for a whopping 964 combined yards. Im betting on more of the same non stop action this week when these teams go Helmut to Helmut. Note:These teams in their L/7 meetings have seen a combined average of 51.4 ppg go on the board with 6 of the 7 games eclipsing the total.
Gruden is 7-0 OVER after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard.
All game 2 NFL road favorites who scored 35 or more pts in Game One like Dallas have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER dating back 10 seasons!
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (WASHINGTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in conference games are 45-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season are 68-34 OVER L/36 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-15-19||Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5||28-26||Loss||-109||51 h 4 m||Show|
The Steelers were embarrassed last week vs the New England Pats by a score of 33-3 in their road opener and now they will be out looking for redemption in front of their home town fans this Sunday. No pro likes to be embarrassed and Ben Rothlisberger is a prime example of this , winning and covering 8 straight SU/ATS after losing by 18 or more points. Im betting the Steelers bounce back here vs a Seattle team that is just 2-12 ATS and 1-12-1 SU L/13 road openers dating back to the 2005 campaign.
The last two times these 2 teams met here in Pittsburgh the Steelers won 24-0 and 21-0 and another strong effort is on todays agenda.
PITTSBURGH is 108-79 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NFL Favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 59-27 . ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover
|09-14-19||A's v. Rangers +114||8-6||Loss||-100||10 h 51 m||Show|
Rangers starter Mike Minor (13-8, 3.08 ERA, 183 SO) is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in August and is one win away from setting a new career high for one season. He owns a 3.18 ERA in three starts against the Athletics over the past two seasons. In 13 starts at home, he is 5-3 this year with a 3.70 ERA and gets my support in the underdog role tonight. Meanwhile, As starter Mike Fiers(14-4, 3.97 ERA, 116 SO) looked rattled last time out in his shortest outing of his career, when he surrendered nine runs and a career-high five homers, recording only three outs vs. the Astros. He was charged with his first loss since May 1 and could still be suffering a sort of PTSD syndrome after that nasty performance. Its never easy to have your confidence shaken like that and could be in a fragile state vs a Texas team that can bang out some offence.
The Rangers have won 6 of their L/8 and are looking strong of late, and must be respected in their ability to pull off a underdog win here this evening.
The Rangers lost the first game of this series last night 14-9, but are 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game ad 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML
|09-14-19||Clemson v. Syracuse +28.5||41-6||Loss||-110||75 h 25 m||Show|
The Orange were annihilated last week as favs by a 63-20 count at Maryland. Im betting that this team was more focused on their upcoming game against the Tigers than the Terps. Despite of public recency bias, based on results Dino Babers knows how to slow Clemson as Syracuse only lost by 4 at Clemson a year ago, and was undefeated at 6-0 at home in 2018 and must be respected getting this many points in the Carrier Dome. Note: Clemson is 0-8 ATS L/8 on the road as 20 or more favs.
Take the points with Syracuse to cover
|09-14-19||Hawaii +22 v. Washington||20-52||Loss||-114||59 h 44 m||Show|
Hawaii despite of being porous on D, have enough offensive weapons to stay within the number here vs a over rated Washington side. The public and pundits are expecting the Huskies to bounce back this week after being upset by California 20-19. But Im betting this weeks expected victory will not come so easily . Note: In the L/14 seasons, ranked teams after a loss like Washington have gone 244-300-14 (44%) against the spread (ATS) . From a head to head historical reference Washington leads the series 3-2 SU with the last two meetings featuring wins for the Huskies by 1point at Hawaii in 2014, and by 8 points at home in 2011.
Play on Hawaii to cover
|09-14-19||Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||5-2||Win||101||9 h 21 m||Show|
Brewers starter Lyles recorded a very good start at St.Louis earlier this season when he was with the Pirates allowing one run on one hit over six innings on May 11 at Busch Stadium and Im betting on another strong performance here. Lyles has in top form since coming to the Brewers from the Pittsburgh Pirates in late July, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.51 ERA in eight starts.
Meanwhile, Card starter Jack Flaherty (10-7, 2.99 ERA, 196 SO) lowered his ERA to below 3.00 after his last dominant start, which included eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball, along with 10 strikeouts. The 23-year-old has an MLB-best 0.76 ERA since the All-Star break. Im betting on both these hurlers and the bullpens when called upon to supply us with top quality work, which Im betting results in . lower scoring affair. FLAHERTY is 8-0 UNDER vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)FLAHERTY is 9-1 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
This is a big game as St.Louis and Milwaukee continue to search for a playoff birth. With that said, Im betting on these two divisional rivals to play hard, and conservatively in what Im betting will be a low scoring affair.
Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 8-3-1 in Brewers last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 10-4 in Brewers last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2-1 in Brewers last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 37-15-1 in Brewers last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-0-1 in Flahertys last 6 starts vs. National League Central.Under is 10-1-2 in Flahertys last 13 starts on grass.Under is 10-1-2 in Flahertys last 13 starts overallUnder is 21-8 in Cardinals last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 13-5 in Cardinals last 18 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 26-10-1 in Cardinals last 37 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 35-16-1 in Cardinals last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 21-10 in Cardinals last 31 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 18-7-1 in Tichenors last 26 games behind home plate.
|09-14-19||Florida -7.5 v. Kentucky||29-21||Win||100||81 h 0 m||Show|
Florida has owned Kentucky at home winning 15 straight here vs the Wildcats, and Im betting nothing changes today as the home team goes into battle without their starting QB Terry Wilson who is expected to be out for the season with a knee injury. Because of the injury the line is a plus TD for the favs Florida . Im big on value lines, but Im betting this is not one of them. Note:Kentucky is 3-23 ATS in its last twenty-six straight-up losses at home.
Mullen is 10-0 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. ( Mullens team 29.2 vs opp 15 ppg)
CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good rushing team from last season - averaged 200 or more rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Florida Gators to cover
|09-14-19||Montreal +7.5 v. Saskatchewan||25-27||Win||100||31 h 32 m||Show|
Montreal comes in to this tilt vs Saskatchewan having won three consecutive games and are now 6-4, on the season with momentum on their sides. Meanwhile, the Roughriders after getting their butts handed to them 35-10 in the Banjo Bowl at the hands of the division-leading Blue Bombers will now be in a bit of a letdown situation. They were sky high for the above mentioned beatdown and still got clobbered which Im betting will effect their confidence going forward.
MONTREAL is 9-1 ATS when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 52 over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 18-36 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1996 and is 0-5 ATS L/5 September games.
CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MONTREAL) - with a poor passing D - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game are 34-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Montreal Als to cover
|09-14-19||Georgia State v. Western Michigan OVER 69||10-57||Loss||-110||24 h 24 m||Show|
Last week, Georgia State trailed 20-3 to Furman of the FCS in the second quarter, but quarterback Dan Ellington and the Panther offense exploded with a 48-42 victory. Im expecting Ellington and company to keep trucking here today. Meanwhile, the Western Michigan Broncos defense was completely destroyed by a usually impotent Mich State Spartan offense last week allowing just under 200 yards receiving and rushing to two individual players. Since last season new DC Lou Esposito has allowed opponent to score six touchdowns in 4 of 6 games. Everything points to his being a block buster affair with crap defence as the feature.
Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games on fieldturf.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. S-Belt.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.Over is 15-5 in Broncos last 20 home games.Over is 34-12-1 in Broncos last 47 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 road games.Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games on fieldturf.
|09-14-19||Louisiana Tech v. Bowling Green +10||35-7||Loss||-109||127 h 21 m||Show|
After being blasted by KState 52-0 last week it might be hard for some to see some light when its comes to BGSU. However , I do expect the Green Falcons to bounce back this week in their home coming tilt and make a game of this vs visiting Louisiana Tech. Im betting on the Falcons to establish a run game with Clair, Frye, and a big OL, and keep themselves within the number.
Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Falcons are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bowling Green to cover
|09-14-19||Iowa v. Iowa State +3||18-17||Win||100||78 h 49 m||Show|
Im betting on two long time instate non conference rivals to go to head in a real battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week, despite of recency bias favoring Iowa. The Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS as conference road favs and the home team in this series has covered 3 straight times . I know Iowa State did not look great in their opener, but Iowa State is coming off a bye week and has spent that time getting energized and preparing for their big rivalry matchup.
Campbell is 9-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of IOWA ST.
Play on Iowa State to cover
|09-14-19||Braves +108 v. Nationals||10-1||Win||108||5 h 21 m||Show|
Foltynewicz the Braves starter this afternoon vs the Nationals has pitched well since returning from the minors. This will be his eighth start since returning and he's gone 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. In two starts in September, Foltynewicz is 2-0 and has allowed only one run over 12 innings. Note:The Braves are 6-0 on the ML in franchise history with Mike Foltynewicz as a road underdog when they won his last four starts.
Braves are 10-1 in Foltynewiczs last 11 starts. Braves are 6-0 in Foltynewiczs last 6 road starts.
FOLTYNEWICZ is 6-0 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 8-15 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
Meanwhile,Austin Voth (1-1, 4.00 ERA, 30 SO)is filling in for the injured Joe Ross, Voth allowed two runs over four innings in a loss to the Braves last time out and Im betting he will be on the wrong side of the scoreboard yet again this afternoon.
Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League East.Nationals are 1-4 in Voths last 5 starts.
Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML
|09-14-19||Georgia Southern v. Minnesota UNDER 47.5||32-35||Loss||-109||72 h 48 m||Show|
Im betting Georgia Southern option attack will grind this clock down quickly, while Minnesota behind their running game and big Oline will do the same.
Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.Under is 13-6 in Eagles last 19 games following a straight up win. Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in September.
Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games overall.Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 home games
|09-14-19||Memphis v. South Alabama +19.5||42-6||Loss||-110||55 h 30 m||Show|
Memphis has started their season winning their first two home games including a week 1 15-10 victory vs Ole Miss and an easy 55-24 victory vs a FCS opponent Southern last week. Now in a let down spot vs a tough Sun belt opponent South Alabama Im betting covering this number will not come easily. MEMPHIS is 1-9 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.MEMPHIS is 4-15 ATS after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and is 13-33 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.
Memphis is just 3-16 SU in their L/19 road openers.
Play on South Alabama to cover
|09-14-19||NC State v. West Virginia +7||27-44||Win||100||112 h 48 m||Show|
The Mounties are coming off a 38-7 beat down at Missouri and now are being given a home dog classification by the lines-makers vs a over rated NC State football program that just got finished beating up on two sub par Carolina programs(East and Coastal). I know that West Virginia might be down a few notches this season with just 10 returning starters, and have a new head coach, but this line is over blown thanks to recency bias thus giving us value according to my projections. Note: West Virginia 20-1 L/21 at home vs non conference opposition.
NC STATE is 8-22 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 32-9 ATS L/27seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on West Virginia to cover
|09-14-19||Maryland v. Temple +8||17-20||Win||100||102 h 45 m||Show|
Temple and Maryland have alot of similarities this season. New head coaches and offensive systems. Inexperienced top tier talent everywhere. According to my power ranking projections both all match up very well, and Im not going to be swayed by Maryland 2 lopsided wins in the first couple of weeks of this season.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.
Play on the Temple Owls to cover
|09-14-19||Kansas State +8 v. Mississippi State||31-24||Win||100||78 h 42 m||Show|
Tonight Im betting a talented blue collar group in Kansas State under new HC Chris Klieman, will give a over rated Mississippi State program a much closer battle than many might anticipate. Kansas State annihilated their first two opponents, and while the Bulldogs also won their first two games they were far from spectacular, and with starting QB Tommy Stevens enduring a shoulder injury last week and backup QB Garrett Shrader expected to start further credence is added to my call .( Even if Sharder starts Im still expect KState to play a jack in the box role today metaphorically speaking-suprise suprise )
Mississippi State is in a look ahead revenge mode for their SEC season opener against Kentucky next week and may not be fully focused here, giving us value with the dog.
New Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman, has won 23 away games in a row and knows how to get his troops prepared in the visitors role.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB road team (KANSAS ST) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 93-47 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Kansas State Wildcats to cover
|09-14-19||Eastern Michigan +8 v. Illinois||34-31||Win||100||75 h 23 m||Show|
Lovie Smiths Illinois is up-trending, with two straight wins to start their campaign but Im betting they will have their hands full with a Eastern Michigan side that is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road. Meanwhile, Illinois is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus an opponent from the MAC and still don't have a winning culture in place as is evident by going 13-57 Su in regular season games over the last 12 seasons. Yes, Eastern Michigan lost to Kentucky last week 38-17 and failed to cover as 16 point dogs, but this hard nosed never say die group deserves our respect as does the football program that has gone 12-1 ATS L/13 vs .500 or better opposition and that is 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Eastern Michigan to cover
|09-14-19||Kansas State v. Mississippi State UNDER 51||31-24||Loss||-109||1 h 38 m||Show|
Kansas State comes into Starkville with a top 10 defense and wont be easily intimidated . On offence the Wildcats are a run first type of team, and because of this alot of clock time will be eaten up and quickly. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than many might think on what has become a bloated total since being released.
KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 UNDER after playing a game at home over the last 2 season with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored.
CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-13-19||Ottawa +5.5 v. BC||5-29||Loss||-107||52 h 46 m||Show|
The Redblacks are coming off their biggest meltdown of the season, a 46-17 loss to the last place, and provincial rival Toronto Argos. Coach Campbell of Ottawa was visibly upset and equally embarrassed and Im betting he motivates his team to bounce back here in a game vs another under performing team the BC . Lions.
OTTAWA is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-12 ATS in home games versus awful passing teams averaging 6.9 or less passing yards/att - after 9 or more games since 1996.. OTTAWA is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Campbell is 12-4 ATS in road games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of OTTAWA.
CFL Underdogs or pick (OTTAWA) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, with a losing record are 46-18 ATS L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Take the points with Ottawa to cover
|09-13-19||Washington State v. Houston +9||31-24||Win||100||62 h 38 m||Show|
Tonights tilt at NRG Stadium, the home of the Texans will see the vast majority of the crowd rooting for Houston. which Im betting will give them a edge.
It must be noted that Washington States HC Leach is just 2-7 ATS in weekday games and 5-14-2 ATS going against .500 or better non-conference opposition . Leach is also 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.
With a top tier coach Dana Holgorsen, who stands 17-1 SU in non-conference games. and a Houston Cougars football program that are 13-1-1 ATS as 2 or more points underdogs we have a viable side to back here tonight on ESPN.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 64-27 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - porous defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Houston Cougars to cover
|09-13-19||Washington State v. Houston UNDER 74||31-24||Win||100||15 h 51 m||Show|
The Cougars used to be a fast paced team (No. 1 in seconds per play last season) but now under new coach Dana Holgorsen the pace has slowed alot .Houston ranks 100th of 130 FBS teams in plays per second at 28.4 and bleeding the clock Im betting will be on full display for Houston tonight. I know Washington State can score in bunches behind a strong passing game, but Houston has shown flashes of brilliance in their secondary already thiss season and are capable of slowing down the visitors attack tonight in a game I pegged to stay on the low side of what is a bloated total based on past assumptions .
HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored.
CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (WASH ST/HOUSTON) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) are 46-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-13-19||Brewers +117 v. Cardinals||0-10||Loss||-100||9 h 50 m||Show|
Brewers starter Adrian Houser (6-5, 3.59 ERA, 99 SO) faced the Cardinals in consecutive outings toward the end of August, giving up a combined four runs (two earned) over 10 1/3 innings. His last win came in that first start on Aug. 21 at Busch Stadium and gets my support here tonight vs the Cards as the Brewers extend their current red hot 7 game winning streak.
MILWAUKEE is 28-9 against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
MLB team (ST LOUIS) - after a game where they hit 5 or more home runs, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 earned runs or less in his last 2 outings are 20-35 L/22 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML
|09-13-19||Dodgers -126 v. Mets||9-2||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
Clayton Kershaw( LHP13-5, 3.06 ERA, 171 SO ) Kershaw takes the bump to open the weekend series in New York. The southpaw has gone more than six innings just once in his last four outings, seeing his ERA rise above 3.00 for the first time since July 15 in the process, but Im betting he bounces back here as he has been showing alot of crankiness about his lack luster efforts and his egos on the line here tonight so expect a big effort from the super star hurler.
Dodgers are perfect 6-0 L/6 as visitors vs Mets.
MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (LA DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings are 141-49 L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LADodgers to win on the ML
|09-13-19||Braves +146 v. Nationals||5-0||Win||146||9 h 41 m||Show|
Max Scherzer(10-5, 2.56 ERA, 216 SO)Dave Martinez said Scherzer threw a bullpen on Tuesday and reported feeling good, setting up the right-hander to start Friday at home against Atlanta. Scherzer has been easing his way back to full strength after a back injury and still not 100% so we have value here fading him against what can be an explosive Atlanta batting order. Meanwhile, Saroka the Braves starter always gives his team a chance at victory and has consistently gotten stronger as a game progresses. Note: If Soroka can get out of the first inning, he's hard to hit. He gave up two runs before retiring a batter against Washington in his last start. He has a 4.15 ERA in the first inning and a 2.46 ERA in the second inning or later. The two previous times he has allowed more than one run in the first inning, he hasn't given up another run.
WASHINGTON is 1-9 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 2 seasons.
MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (ATLANTA) - good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season, in September games are 49-31 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML
|09-12-19||Nationals -124 v. Twins||12-6||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
LH Starter Patrick Corbin 11-7, 3.16 ERA, 210 SOwill make his first career start against the Twins. He has been excellent all season for the Nationals, but especially in his past 15 starts when he has posted a 2.29 ERA with 116 strikeouts and 31 walks in 94 1/3 innings and get the nod here today vs the Twins. Note:Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.Twins are 0-9 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
Meanwhile, Gibson his pitching opponent from the Twins will be rusty after a long lay off. Gibson had a 7.18 ERA in his last five starts before going on the injured list.GIBSON is 4-13 against the money line in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)GIBSON is 0-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 21.00 and a WHIP of 3.000.
Nationals are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the ML
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5||20-14||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
Both these teams lost their opening games, but it must be noted that during the L/6 seasons the UNDER is 9-1 in all Game 2s with home favorites of 3 or more points when both sides are coming off a SU loss . Note: Both teams we blasted for 31 and 30 points respectively which makes for a recency bias on this total. Note: During the 2018 campaign, the UNDER was dominant cashing 12 of 13 times when both teams gave up m 30 or more pts in their previous game, when the Total is within the parameters of 42 to 53 points. Carolina is also 3-21 under L/24 as division home chalk and have gone under 3 straight times after allowing 30 or more points.
TB has gone under in 9 of their L/11 as 6 or more point dogs.
t must be noted that Bruce AriansTB QB guru is getting set to help out his talented QB Winston cut down on turnovers and realize his potential as the No. 1 overall pick from the 2015 draft by running the ball more effectively.With second-year pro Ronald Jones II leading the way, Tampa Bay rushed for 121 yards in last week's loss and will once again be utilized to make this into a grinding type affair vs a Carolina team that has proven itself less than explosive over the last few seasons.
These two teams have gone under 5 of the L/6 times they have met . Average Totals line: 49. The Average combined points per game clicked in at 39.3 ppg.
|09-12-19||Cubs -137 v. Padres||4-1||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
A 4-0 loss to the Padres on Wednesday dropped the Cubs into a tie with the Milwaukee Brewers for the final NL playoff berth and they will now be primed for a bounce back effort as losses are unacceptable at this juncture of their campaign. SAN DIEGO is 4-14 against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season
Padres starter LAMET is 0-7 against the money line in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Padres are 0-9 in Lamets last 9 home starts.
Cubs are 35-16 in their last 52 during game 4 of a series.
Meanwhile, Cubs starter Yu Darvish(5-6, 4.12 ERA, 190 SO)After missing one turn (right forearm tightness), he returned Saturday with five shutout innings vs. Milwaukee. He struck out seven and walked one in a no-decision. Darvish has a 2.96 ERA with 85 strikeouts and four walks in his last 11 starts and gets my support here this afternoon in a West coast tilt.
Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML
|09-11-19||Lynx +3 v. Storm||74-84||Loss||-115||14 h 1 m||Show|
Minnesota and Seattle are deep teams with tons of experience and championship pedigree and both will not be easily intimated. The Minnesota Lynx enter the post season playing their best hoops of the season as is evident by winning 5 of their L/6 games while shooting an impressive 48 percent from the field in those 5 wins and are more than capable of pulling off the straight up upset here in their current form. I know Seattle has won all 3 games in this series this season, but my estimates still suggest we have leverage on this line getting 3 or more points.
Storm are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
WNBA team (MINNESOTA) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off a road win against a division rival are 48-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover
|09-11-19||Royals v. White Sox UNDER 10||8-6||Loss||-100||8 h 29 m||Show|
Royals starter Sparkman owns a 3.24 ERA in three starts against the White Sox this season, which includes a one-inning outing on May 29 at Guaranteed Rate Field where he was ejected. Meanwhile, White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez . (9-12, 5.17 ERA, 149 SO)is off a top tier effort vs a Cleveland team where he allowed one hit and threw the first complete game of his career. In two of Lopez’s past three starts, he has allowed one or no hits and Im betting on him being tough on his opponents tonight, which will help this combined score stay under the total.
LOPEZ is 12-4 UNDER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.2 rpg. KANSAS CITY is 13-4 UNDER on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season with a combined average of 8.4 rpg.
The White Sox are 0-11 L/11 UNDER at home after a game in which their opponent scored first and it is not a series opener.
|09-10-19||Cardinals -139 v. Rockies||1-2||Loss||-139||8 h 3 m||Show|
Rockies starter Gonzalez (0-6, 7.29 ERA) made his only career start against the Cardinals on Aug. 24, a 6-0 win by St. Louis. He allowed five runs on three hits over 4 1/3 innings and took the loss and is fade material here tonight. Meanwhile, The Cardinals have recieved steady performances from their rotation while the Rockies' inconsistent staff has posted a 5.97 ERA this year, which ranks last in the majors. The Cardinals are 13-0 on the ML when their starter Michael Wacha starts as a favorite and he went fewer than five innings in his last start.
ST LOUIS is 17-4 against the money line vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse this season.ST LOUIS is 40-16 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.
COLORADO is 16-44 against the money line in the second half of the season this season
Cardinals are 4-0 in Wachas last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.Cardinals are 6-0 in Wachas last 6 Tuesday starts.Cardinals are 8-2 in Wachas last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Cardinals are 9-3 in Wachas last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Cardinals are 21-8 in Wachas last 29 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), after scoring and allowing 4 runs or less last 3 games are 28-85 L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the ML
|09-10-19||A's v. Astros -155||21-7||Loss||-155||8 h 43 m||Show|
Miley has a 3.41 ERA in 14 starts since his last loss and provides top tier stability for the Astros pitching rotation.Miley, owns a 7-0 record in 14 starts since his last loss, and has been strong against Oakland over three starts this season. He is 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA and has allowed just 12 hits and four runs in 19 2/3 innings.Miley holds a 5-2 record along with a stingy 1.71 ERA in eight career starts against the A's, allowing just 37 hits and 10 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings and once again gets my support ere tonight. MILEY is 10-1 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. (Team's Record) MILEY is 18-4 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 20-2 against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (AL) this season.HOUSTON is 15-1 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more in a win over a division rival since 1997.HINCH is 25-4 against the money line in home games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game as the manager of HOUSTON.
Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML
|09-10-19||Dodgers v. Orioles +294||7-3||Loss||-100||11 h 14 m||Show|
Blach the Os starting pitcher faces a familiar opponent in the Dodgers, the team he famously blanked for five innings on Opening Day 2018 as a member of the Giants. Now in Baltimore, he gets another start after defeating the Rays in his last trip to the hill. BLACH is 4-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 1.64 and a WHIP of 1.045.
Im betting on a value line upset here in their interleague battle.
LA DODGERS are 9-18 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season.
MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 1-12 this season!
Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML
|09-09-19||Broncos v. Raiders +3||16-24||Win||100||102 h 16 m||Show|
The betting public are starting to be sold on the Broncos, who with QB Joe Flacco now in the fold and Vic Fangio back as the defensive ordinator are considered possible play off contenders . However, the Raiders despite of being expected to be without suspended star Antonio Brown for this game are being looked upon as bad bets here this week after starting as 3 point favs . However in my usual contrarian fashion I now see some value in a situation this is being over blown. Quite honestly Brown has been a distraction to this team since being acquired and his absence may not be a bad thing.
Broncos are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC West.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Oakland to cover
|09-09-19||Cubs v. Padres +136||10-2||Loss||-100||14 h 47 m||Show|
Quantrill the Padres starter has been in a funk over his last couple of starts but was 4-1 with a 1.31 ERA during a six-game stretch, before his current 3 game losing streak. Also Quantrill according to my power rankings matches up well vs the Cubs as was evident when he gave up just two hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings this last July 21 . The young Stanford product has also performed well at home where he is 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA this season.CHICAGO CUBS are 12-26 (against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
Note the Cubs are on a 3 game losing streak and have a hard luck pitcher on the hill of late Hendricks who has better home splits than away . The righty is 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA on the road this year, compared to 5-2 with a 1.77 ERA at home. HENDRICKS is 0-6 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
Cubs are 0-4 in Hendricks' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record .
Cubs are 2-6 in Hendricks' last 8 road starts.Cubs are 2-7 in Hendricks' last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
MLB Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 game are 83-41 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the ML
|09-09-19||A's +173 v. Astros||0-15||Loss||-100||11 h 14 m||Show|
Todays starter for the Astros Greinke has surrendered nine earned runs on 14 hits over 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts, with the Astros losing both of those contests. Meanwhile, Athletics starter Fiers is 12-0 with a 2.59 ERA over his last 21 starts, a streak that began with his no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on May 7. He has allowed a .639 OPS during his winning streak, with the Athletics going 17-4 in those starts. Oakland has won Fiers' previous two starts against the Astros and gets my support tonight on a value line.
FIERS is 16-2 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MLB team (HOUSTON) - average hitting team (AVG .265 to .279) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better) -AL, with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games are 23-53 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate.
MLB road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (OAKLAND) - a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record, in September games are 39-24 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Oakland As to win on the ML
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||28-30||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
This might seem like a public leaning total , but according to my projections this combined score here this Monday night between the Texans and their hosts the explosive Saints should breach this number. Note: Brees has thrown 37 scoring passes in 17 career Kickoff Weekend games, the most of any quarterback. I expect the Saints to light the scoreboard up here tonight and for the Texans to have no choice but to open things up behind quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first player to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 500 yards and five scores in a season and respond with some fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.
The Saints are 4-0-1 OVER L/5 games on turf on Monday night dating back 5 seasons with a combined average score eclipsing the total by more than 10 ppg.
Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games in Week 1.
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints -6.5||28-30||Loss||-105||8 h 26 m||Show|
The Texans had a good record in 2018 but it was all smoke and mirrors and they lost in the play offs in humiliating fashion by a 21-7 count vs the Colts as chalk, barely mustering a fight and now this season Im betting things will not get much better, starting tonight against explosive New Orleans Saints. The bottom line here is that the Texans just don't have the firepower to hang with the Saints in their home Opener on prime time TV where the Saints will want to start to with a bang after last seasons horrific officiating call that was partially responsible for eliminating them from the play offs. Note: Week one underdogs like the Texans of at least two or more points are 0-16 ATS/SU L/16 when they were beaten by 12 or more points ATS in their first playoff game last season with the average margin loss coming by 13.4 ppg. I know the Saints have lost their L/5 openers but all good and bad things must eventually come to an end.
Texans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||3-33||Loss||-120||34 h 11 m||Show|
New England willed their way to a Super Bowl championship last season , but in no way shape or form were they as over powering during the reg season as many might have thought, and now the departure of Gronk , Bradys main downfield target will see the team Im betting slowly adjust to his absence. Tonight Im also betting on Roethlisberger and company to make a game of this here at Gillette Stadium. Note: Big Ben is 35-18-2 ATS career as a underdog in the NFL and has won 30 of those games SU. Meanwhile, the Pats have failed to cover 8 of their L/11 at home under the Sunday night lights.
Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as an underdog as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The Steelers are 7-1 ATS since Dec 13, 2015 as a road dog.
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS L/4 as a dog.
NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins are 23-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover
|09-08-19||49ers v. Bucs OVER 49.5||31-17||Loss||-120||101 h 35 m||Show|
Bucs defense allowed 29 ppg last season and Im not expecting a miraculous bounce back season even though Bruce Arians is now on board. The lousy pass rush wont be able to challenge ,Jimmy Garoppolo and Im betting the now healthy QB will smash a still susceptible secondary. Meanwhile, James Winston despite of being highly inconsistent is a very capable passer, and he will be up the challenge here on the road this week, behind a speedy group of wide receivers.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in September.Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September. TB 8-2 OVER as fav/dog 3 or less.
|09-08-19||Colts v. Chargers OVER 43.5||24-30||Win||100||128 h 45 m||Show|
No Andrew Luck at QB for the Indianapolis Colts, no problem. With a revamped offence engineered by offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, and a offensive line that is uptrending, the interim QBs should do just fine and points production should not be the problem many pundits might anticipate. Players like RB Marlon Mack who rushed for 900 yards and nine touchdowns last season and , T.Y. Hilton who produced 1,200 receiving yards in 14 games, and tight end Eric Ebron led all NFL tight ends with 13 touchdowns is an explosive group who can do lots of damage and quickly. The Colts D, is still a work in progress, so they may also allow a fair amount of points and will need to be a pedal to the metal type offensive side to be competitive. Meanwhile, Chargers star QB Phillip Rivers will continue to put points on the board, especially with targets like receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the fold. Today against a susceptible Colts secondary this Im betting will become obvious, and will overall help us see a combined score that goes over the total.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in Week 1Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in September.Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in Week 1.
|09-08-19||Bengals v. Seahawks OVER 44||20-21||Loss||-110||44 h 35 m||Show|
The Seahawks were the NFL’s top rushing team last season, averaging 160 yards a contest and Im betting they will just explosive this season which will set up their passing game behind the arm of Russell Wilson and an over all increase in ppg production. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals were smashed for 137.8 rushing yards a game last season, and I expect there will be no immediate fixes for their defensive issues be a broken damn. The Bengals only saving grace will be the big red machine QB Andy Dalton who can be dangerous when in a groove. Im expecting Dalton to be very impactful here in new HC Taylor new offensive schemes.
Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games in September. Over is 4-1-1 in Bengals last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games in Week 1.
Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Carroll is 27-11 OVER in non-conference games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored.
|09-08-19||Blue Jays +186 v. Rays||3-8||Loss||-100||22 h 2 m||Show|
Blue Jays starter Jacob Waguespack (4-3, 3.97 ERA, 46 SO)shut out the Rays on four hits over six innings back on Aug. 5, and is ready to send the Blue Jays home on a high note. Waguespack has a 2.92 ERA in six road starts this season and gives us a viable underdog opportunity here this Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, TBs starter Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.86 ERA, 55 SO)Glasnow will be making his first start since sustaining a mild forearm strain in his throwing arm on May 10 against the Yankees and will take time to stretch out, so he wont be 100%, giving further credence to back the Jays on a value line. Rays are 0-4 in Glasnows last 4 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Rays are 6-2 in Glasnows last 8 starts.Rays are 3-7 in Glasnows last 10 starts vs. American League East.Rays are 2-6 in Glasnows last 8 starts on astroturf.Rays are 1-4 in Glasnows last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the ML
|09-08-19||Chiefs v. Jaguars UNDER 52.5||40-26||Loss||-109||169 h 3 m||Show|
The high octane offence of the KC Chiefs behind phenom Patrick Mahomes comes into the heat and humidity of Jacksonville this Sunday in a game that I have pegged to stay on the low side of a public leaning total. Im betting Jacksonville has had sufficient time to study this explosive group, and behind a top tier D, will slow the Chiefs here ( at least enough to keep their Chiefs output to reasonable levels). Meanwhile, Im also betting it will take time for the Jags, to jell offensively, thanks to their new parts, (QB Nick Foles) and for the Chiefs D, to be much improved over last seasons hands off version. ( Changed form a 3-4 to 4-3 scheme) Add to that a muggy Sunday environment we have a more methodical game than many might expect and a lower combined score than the public is counting on.
The Jags L/13 home games since the 2017 season, have seen them allow an average of just 12.7 points per game and their offence has average just 19.9 points per game.
Reid is 12-4 UNDER against AFC South division opponents as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 43 ppg going on the board.Reid in 74 games as a favorite as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average score of 45.1 ppg scored.
Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games overall.Under is 16-7 in Jaguars last 23 vs. AFC.
Play on the UNDER
|09-08-19||Rams v. Panthers +3||30-27||Push||0||75 h 17 m||Show|
Super Bowl teams like the Rams that lost have been bad bets in their followup campaign are just 17-31-1 ATS in non division road games as chalk dating back 19 seasons.It must also be noted that Defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season if they are away and facing a non-conference opponent are 1-15 ATS L/16 seasons. The Rams qualify here under those perimeters. Meanwhile, Carolina is according to my preseason power rankings a very under rated team that deserves respect as home dogs against any team in this league.Carolina is 5-0 ATS L/5 at home in this series vs the Rams and gets my support here today.
Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.Rams are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 1.
Take the points with Carolina to cover
|09-08-19||Rams v. Panthers UNDER 50||30-27||Loss||-110||5 h 23 m||Show|
The Panthers have gone UNDER in their in their last 7 opening games of a NFL season going under the number by 14 ppg and we all know how conservative this team is out of the gate and overall general terms. I know they will face an explosive offence here today, but last season the Rams played much more conservatively on the road then at home, going under in their L/5 road games, and Im betting that trend continues here today as they make the long arduous trip from the west coast to the east coast. It must be noted that week one none division road chalk of -2 or more are 4-24-1 UNDER dating back 20 seasons .
These teams have gone under in 5 of their L/6 meetings with a combined average of 30.2 ppg going on the board and another lower scoring game will be on todays agenda according to my projections .
The Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 away with a 50 or more point total. The rams have the Saints up next week ( 0-7 UNDER L/7before the Saints). Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 as road favs -2 or more.
Panthers have gone under in 6 of their L/7 with a total of 48 or more.
|09-07-19||Rockies v. Padres -150||0-3||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
Padres starter Joey Lucchesi(9-7, 4.00 ERA, 135 SO)In six August starts, Lucchesi posted a 3.58 ERA, and he was one of the Padres' most reliable starters and is a very viable pitcher to back in this spot play.
COLORADO is 8-26 against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.COLORADO is 16-42 against the money line in the second half of the season this season.
MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 55-8 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the ML
|09-07-19||Miami-FL v. North Carolina +5||25-28||Win||100||32 h 35 m||Show|
Mac Brown return as coach of North Carolina was impressive as he took out rival South Carolina. Now coming home his young men are feeling confident, which the same cannot be said, about a Miami Fl side that was run over by a speedy Florida D in game one losing by a 24-20 count. Last week the Gamecocks had just 270 total yards and went 3 for 13 on third down and Im betting they can slow the Canes in this spot. Meanwhile, N.Carolina;s new Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, previously of Ole Miss knows how to fire up a offence with different looks and Im betting he has this Canes D on their heels here today. Possible upset in the making , which makes getting points here a viable investment opportunity. HC Mac Brown’s career numbers are 14-0 last fourteen home openers) and 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog against opposition coming off a loss like the Miami Canes.
Play on N.Carolina Tarheels to cover
|09-07-19||Western Michigan +16.5 v. Michigan State||17-51||Loss||-110||73 h 49 m||Show|
Western Michigan has one the most talented experienced returning groups in the nation ( production wise) and won't be intimidated by the Michigan State Spartans. Considering look ahead tilts to Arizona State and Northwestern on deck over the next couple of weeks, Dantonio and company may not be fully focused on this up trending opponent which gives us value taking the underdog here.
The Spartans are just 3-14 ATS L/17 at home in non conference action and 0-5 ATS L5 as 14 or more favourites.
MLB Road underdogs (W MICHIGAN) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.
Play on Western Michigan to cover
|09-07-19||Wyoming v. Texas State +7||23-14||Loss||-115||127 h 44 m||Show|
Wyoming according to my projections is being over rated here vs Texas State. Giving us value taking the points .
Texas State had the No. 5 defense in the Sun Belt Conference in 2018, allowing 383.9 yards per game. Almost everyone returns this year and should continue to uptrend. With new HC Jake Spavital’s at the helm of the team the offence should also see improvement. The old ball coach has proven himself over and over again with seven previous coaching stops, his last three as an offensive coordinator for Power 5 schools.Texas State trails 2-1 in the all-time series, but the hosting team has won each game. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here again this week vs Wyoming.
Bohl is 6-15 ATS in September games as the coach of WYOMING
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Texas State to cover
|09-07-19||Western Kentucky +8.5 v. Florida International||20-14||Win||100||108 h 16 m||Show|
Florida International-was crushed last week vs Tulane 42-14, while Western Kentucky came out flat and was upset loss vs FCS Central Arkansas 35-28 as 10 point favs.
There is a new HC in Western Kentucky as Helton takes over and gets 10 returning starters to build with. It might not seem like it after getting upset by a FCS side, last week but returning production and S&P+ projections for telling the Hilltoppers to improve to 101st overall, with a 6-6 record brings hope . With all 5 starters back on the O-line Im expecting bigger and better things from this Hilltoppers offence as the season progresses, starting today vs Florida International team that allowed 42 points to Tulane side that struggled mightily on offence last season.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 9-21 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 48-16 ATS L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on W.Kentucky to cover
|09-07-19||BYU v. Tennessee OVER 52.5||29-26||Win||100||31 h 9 m||Show|
The Vols 38-30 loss to a Georgia State team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference was as shocking to say the least, and had the added bonus of showing me how bad their defence was going to be this season.Defensively, the Vols struggled against Georgia States option attack as quarterback Dan Ellington made the Vols look less than mortal. Im betting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson who is also mobile will do the same , which will inflict more damage on a injury plagued and struggling Vols defensive line. Needless to say Im betting BYU lights up the board here, while Tennessee will fire back with wreck-less abandon as they look for some kind spark from their offence. This Im also betting will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total.
Over is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. .
|09-07-19||Furman +7.5 v. Georgia State||42-48||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
|09-07-19||Maine +11.5 v. Georgia Southern||18-26||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
Maine is as tough as nails defensively behind their now infamous “Black Hole” defense that returns almost all their starters. The Black Bears rush D, was of the top tier variety last season on the FCS and they will once again be hard to run against and more than prepared to slow down Georgia Southern’s triple option attack. Meanwhile, with Georgia Southerns junior quarterback Shai Werts is banged up after last weeks run in with LSU and less than 100% the Eagles are being over rated. Bottom line here this is a nasty FCS group that Georgia Southern will face here today and a win wont come easily for them, thus Im recommending we take the points.
Play on the Maine Black Bears to cover
|09-07-19||San Diego State +8.5 v. UCLA||23-14||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
UCLA still looks like its going to be while before they morph into a better team as last week they managed just 218 yards and 14 points against Cincinnati. Now this week off a tough as nails San Diego State D, that shut out their opening week opponent , the Bruins will once again having issues putting points on the board. The Bruins Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked like a deer lost in headlights at times in week one, and his PTSD experience of fumbling twice and throwing two interceptions should spark more atrophy here.On the flip side I know San Diego State Quarterback Ryan Agnew did not look good last week and his top tier running back Juwan Washington on a tender ankle had just 55 yards last week in their 6-o win but, I don't think they wanted to open their play book and give the Bruins anything to look at. This week will be different.
Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Aztecs are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 43-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on San Diego State to cover
|09-07-19||Texas A&M +18.5 v. Clemson||10-24||Win||100||123 h 47 m||Show|
Jimbo Fisher has been competitive in previous tilts vs Dabo Swinney. Last season, Texas A&M gave Clemson fits in a a 28-26 victory by the Tigers in which the Aggies had more total yards. Texas A&M head coach has beaten Clemson or stayed within 10 points in a loss in previous recent meetings. This Texas A&M team is built to stand tall against teams like Clemson and Im betting we have value taking points here this week.
TEXAS A&M is 12-1 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. ( Texas A&M beat Texas St in week 1 at home)Fisher is 21-7 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
CFB road team (TEXAS A&M) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 40-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.
CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Texas A&M Aggies to cover
|09-07-19||Nebraska v. Colorado +3.5||31-34||Win||100||96 h 37 m||Show|
Colorado won last year's meeting 33-28 in Lincoln and despite of Nebraska wanting revenge and their stock in an up-trending mode Im betting the Buffaloes will be a hand full for them. The Huskers despite of always getting alot of public support have lost 7 straight road games and if they end their current negative run Im betting it won't come easily.
The Buffaloes smashed Colorado State last week 52-31. Note:Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Buffaloes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover
|09-07-19||Toronto +5.5 v. Ottawa||46-17||Win||100||23 h 4 m||Show|
Ottawa is having a bad season, and the usual hard nosed type of football they play under Campbell their coach is almost non existent. Meanwhile, Toronto, after dismal start to their campaign, have shown some spark lately winning on the road vs a a top tier Winnipeg team 4 weeks ago, and staying fairly competitive in recent games as McLeod Bethel-Thompson has thrown for 300-plus yards in six of his 10 appearances this season and he hasn’t been picked off in his last four outings. I know the Argos will not inspire bettors, but according to my current projections they matchup well vs the Red Black that has lost 7 of their L/8 and get my support here getting points.
OTTAWA is 0-7 ATS in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 430 or less yards/game since 1996.
OTTAWA is 5-24 ATS versus poor passing defenses - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game since 1996.
CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TORONTO) - with a poor passing D - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Toronto Argos to cover
|09-07-19||Ohio v. Pittsburgh OVER 53||10-20||Loss||-120||50 h 38 m||Show|
Pitts young OL vs UVA last week was struggling, as 4 new starters gave up 4 sacks and Panthers gained only 263 total yards, but somehow still found a way to put 14 points on the board vs a very tough Virginia squad . This week Im betting the Panthers find ways to do some offensive damage this week, vs a Ohio HC Solich side that does not have a reputation for staunch defences. Yes the secondary is experienced but, its not like they have shown much in the recent past. Meanwhile, Ohio is an explosive offensive group, behind the lethal Nathan Rourke who remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Im betting the power run game of the Bobcats vs the weakness of the rush D of Pitt opens up this game for the pass game and mucho points go on the board in a tilt that Im betting eclipses the total.
Note: Ohios FCS opponent Rhode Island put 21 points on the board last week and Pitt is more than capable of eclipsing that number.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-06-19||Marshall +11 v. Boise State||7-14||Win||100||77 h 56 m||Show|
Boise State after travelling out to the east coast and erasing a DD deficit for a win vs Florida State last week will now be in a letdown spot. Yes, it is the Broncos home opener, but according to my power rankings Marshall is the type of team that is built to stay competitive against this type of opponent via a already solid defence and offence that has enough returning starters to make some noise.
Harsin is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of BOISE ST. Harsin is 1-9 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of BOISE ST.
CFB Home favorites (BOISE ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 16-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Marshall to cover
|09-06-19||Angels v. White Sox -144||5-4||Loss||-144||8 h 29 m||Show|
White Sox ace Lucas Giolito(14-8, 3.30 ERA, 210 SO)The chance for 20 wins all but disappeared for Giolito with a tough loss to the Braves on Sunday. But he continues to finish strong during this All-Star season, with 90 strikeouts in his last 63 2/3 innings and gets my backing here tonight. Giolito is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts against Los Angeles. Note:LA ANGELS are 12-35 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.Diamondbacks are 8-2 in Rays last 10 starts.
Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the ML
|09-06-19||Diamondbacks -113 v. Reds||7-5||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
Arizona southpaw starter Robbie Ray (12-7, 3.97 ERA, 199 SO) has picked up a win in each of his last two starts. Last time out against the Dodgers, he allowed four runs over five innings in a 6-5 D-backs win and enters this contest offering stability and a viable ml option for his supporters tonight. Ray went 3-0 in August with a 4.30 ERA as the Diamondbacks averaged 7.8 runs in his five starts.RAY is 11-3 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Meanwhile, Mahle (2-10, 4.72 ERA) his Reds pitching opponent is looking for his first win since May 31, having gone 0-5 with a 5.32 ERA in his past nine starts.MAHLE is 1-11 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)MAHLE is 1-9 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. (Team's Record)
Arizona is finding ways to win and have won 9 of their L/10 overall and must be respected in their current form.
Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the ML
|09-06-19||Yankees -118 v. Red Sox||1-6||Loss||-118||7 h 17 m||Show|
German, the Yankees starter tonight faced the Red Sox just last month, earning the victory by allowing two runs over seven innings against the club on Aug. 3. For his career, he's 2-0 with a 3.98 ERA in five games (four starts) versus Boston. GERMAN is 13-1 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. (Team's Record) and s 12-1 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record) and also 9-1 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) GERMAN is 11-0 against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
|09-06-19||Fever v. Liberty +2.5||86-81||Loss||-110||6 h 21 m||Show|
Two non play off teams the Fever and the Liberty go head to head here tonight in NY where Im betting the home team has the edge. NY won the last meeting by a 82-76 count at Indiana last time out. In the first game of the year between these sides in NY the Fever won 81-80 on a buzzer beater. Im projections make this a close game, but home court and desperation have me backing them taking points.
INDIANA is 5-18 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 2-13 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
WNBA Underdogs (NEW YORK) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more are 42-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the NY Liberty to cover
|09-05-19||Packers v. Bears UNDER 47||10-3||Win||100||14 h 12 m||Show|
The public seems to love this game to go over , but the public has a tendency to not delve to deeply into statistical data and trends.
In preseason the Packers did not play their star QB Rodgers as well as two other key offensive weapons Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams so Im betting it will take some time for the Packers to become cohesive offensively here tonight , especially considering they will be facing a Chicago Bears team that was first in weighted D last season, ranking first in pass efficiency and 2nd and run efficiency. Meanwhile, the Packers Defence, was upgraded in the off season, using their first two round picks to pick up linebacker Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage, and then also acquiring free-agent linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to bolster a tough hard nosed group. Im expecting barring injuries for the Packers D to be stringent this season and tonight.
Considering Bears QB Trubisky is getting a reputation for being sloppy with the ball , his play calling maybe limited by the coaches, and a more conservative game 1 plan could be in the cards. Note: The Bears offence ranked 30th in the league in pace last season, so "slow as she goes" could once be the mantra here tonight.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games on a natural surface.Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall dating back to las season.Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 vs. NFC.
The L/10 times these teams have met the average combined score has in clicked in at 44.9 ppg. Bears home games have gone under 58% of the time since the 2016 campaign. Nagy in 6 games versus division opponents as the coach of CHICAGO has seen a combined average score of 43.7 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CHICAGO) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 53-22 UNDER since 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-05-19||Twins +135 v. Red Sox||2-1||Win||135||11 h 50 m||Show|
Twins starter Martin Perez (9-6, 4.89 ERA, 120 SO)had a off game last time out as he was shelled by the Tigers for eight runs in 2 2/3 innings on Saturday and felt that his cutter was moving too much, which he hoped to address in bullpen work between starts. He had allowed four runs in 11 frames over his previous two outings and is more than capable of bouncing back here tonight vs the Red Sox. Meanwhile,Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 6.23 ERA, 46 SO)is not yet fully stretched out since returning to the rotation, and could easily end up as cannon fodder vs a explosive Minnesota batting order averaging 6.3 rpg on the road this season.
The linesmakers are expecting a high scoring game but it must be noted that the Twins excel in these situations. MINNESOTA is 16-3 against the money line on the road when the total is 10 or higher this season.
BALDELLI is 41-18 against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game as the manager of MINNESOTA. BALDELLI is 14-1 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse as the manager of MINNESOTA.
MLB Road teams (MINNESOTA) - with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games, in September games are 89-45 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the ML
|09-05-19||Cubs -114 v. Brewers||10-5||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
Jose Quintana (12-8, 3.90) will start against Milwaukee for the second straight time and is 8-1 with a 3.08 ERA in his last 11 starts. He opposed Anderson last week and tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings when he allowed three runs or less for the 21st time.Quintana is 8-4 with 2.65 ERA in 16 career starts against the Brewers.
Cubs are 7-0 in Quintanas last 7 starts vs. National League Central.Cubs are 9-2 in Quintanas last 11 starts.Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 5-1 in Quintanas last 6 road starts vs. Brewers.
Meanwhile,Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.58 ERA) will start against Chicago for the second straight time. He allowed five runs on seven hits, including two homers to Castellanos, in four innings of a 7-1 loss Friday afternoon at Wrigley and is fade material here tonight.Anderson is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his three outings against Chicago this season.
Brewers are 0-5 in Andersons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.Brewers are 0-4 in Andersons last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
MADDON is 60-27 against the money line when playing on Thursday as the manager of CHICAGO CUBS.
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), after scoring and allowing 4 runs or less last 3 games are 28-84 L/21 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML
|09-05-19||Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 9||4-6||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
Todays starters TBs Pruitt is 2-0 with a 4.29 ERA in eight career appearances (one start) against the Blue Jays. Thornton the Jays starter is 0-1 with an 11.12 ERA in three starts against the Rays and Im betting both get lit up tonight according to my offence vs pitching projections.
THORNTON is 11-3 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.8 rpg scored. TORONTO is 10-2 OVER in road games after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored.
The Blue Jays are 13-0 OVER L/13 in the first game of a series with rest as a road dog off a road game in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent.
MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TB/TORONTO) - after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games are 47-19 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-04-19||Angels v. A's -151||0-4||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
As starter Tanner Roark (8-8, 4.04 ERA, 135 SO)had allowed two or fewer earned runs in four starts since being traded to the A’s, until Thursday vs. the Royals. He turned in six innings, but gave up four runs on five hits in Oakland’s 6-4 loss, but today I expect a more focused effort and a victory. Roark in 3 career starts against the Angels, has garnered a 1.89 ERA.ROARK is 6-0 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 51-17 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.
The Athletics are 7-0 on the ML L/7 in the second game of a series as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. The As have crushed their opposition in those tilts winning all won seven games by multiple run deficits ( 5.86 rpg run).
Play on the As to win on the ML
|09-04-19||Phillies -130 v. Reds||5-8||Loss||-130||7 h 15 m||Show|
Phillies starter Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.45 ERA, 194 SO) going to the hill every five days the rest of the season. The Phillies are winless in his first two starts since making the announcement, although he has a 2.70 ERA in those games and is more than capable of helping his team get a win here vs the Reds tonight.NOLA is 13-2 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record)
Meanwhile, Reds starterTrevor Bauer (10-12, 4.53 ERA, 222 SO) enters this game in a funk as is evident by allowing a combined 14 runs (13 earned) over his past two outings, spanning just seven innings. The right-hander has an 8.40 ERA across six starts since being traded to the Reds at the end of July and is fade material in his current form. BAUER is 4-12 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the ML
|09-03-19||Tigers v. Royals -130||5-6||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
The Tigers will send left-hander Daniel Norris (3-11, 4.66 ERA) to the mound Tuesday. Norris is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA in three appearances (two starts) against the Royals in 2019. For his career, he is 1-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts) vs. Kansas City and has dropped 10 of his L/11 decisions and is once again fade material in this spot.NORRIS is 1-11 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 20-8 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-31 (against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
Play on the KC Royals to win on the ML
|09-02-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 55||35-17||Win||100||35 h 1 m||Show|
Scott Satterfield new era at Louisville will be tested when he steps onto the field against Notre Dame with the most talented team overall he’s had in his coaching career. Admittedly Louisville . is a broken football program, that self disintegrated over the last few seasons and now has to be cautious moving forward. That Im betting is the game plan today vs a explosive Notre Dame fighting Irish team. The Cardinal have been a mistake prone team lacking discipline , but that is something the new head coach wont tolerate. Quote:“I can’t stand sloppy play. I can’t stand it,” Satterfield said during Monday’s press conference with the media. Im also betting that Louisville wont turn over the ball as much here , after ranking 126th in the nation last season. All and all Im backing the idea that Satterfilelds group keeps it simple , which Im betting makes for more of snail pace than many might believe is possible, which gives credence to my under wager recommendation here tonight.
Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 non-conference gamesUnder is 7-3 in Fighting Irish last 10 games on fieldturf.
Play on the UNDER
|09-02-19||Edmonton +3.5 v. Calgary||9-25||Loss||-110||103 h 17 m||Show|
The battle of Alberta between Edmonton 6-4 and Calgary 5-4 has the makings of a hard fought battle, that makes getting points a golden opportunity. Both sides are off home losses as it might seem their attention might have been in a look ahead spot and diverted to this inter provincial rivalry.
Eskimos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Eskimos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.Eskimos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
Stampeders are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.Stampeders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.Stampeders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.Stampeders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
CFL Underdogs or pick (EDMONTON) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 38-11 ATS L/23 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Edmonton Eskimos to cover
|09-02-19||Twins -1.5 v. Tigers||4-3||Loss||-126||2 h 2 m||Show|
Jake Odorizzi (14-6, 3.55 ERA), is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 starts. He's 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four career outings at Comerica Park and gets my support here today. He has allowed one run in 13 innings against the Tigers in 2019. Meanwhile, the Home Run heavy Twins look well equiped to beat up on a 2 seam fastball hitter in Zimmerman who is 1-9, along with a bloated 6.24 ERA.
MINNESOTA is 13-1 SU vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse this season with the average run diff clicking in at 5 rpg.
DETROIT is 3-22 SU in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season with the average run diff clicking at at 4.6 rpg.
Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the RL -1.5
|09-01-19||Houston v. Oklahoma UNDER 80.5||31-49||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
These teams met in the 2016 opener, and No. 15 Houston pulled a 33-23 stunner over the third-ranked Sooners. Oklahoma eventually won the Big 12 and beat Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, but the Sooners missed out on the playoff for the only time in the past four seasons.
Tonight in a game the public has pegged as a super shoot out, Im betting we have value with the under. Both offenses will once again be explosive. However, I am expecting the Sooners off season hiring of Alex Grinch from Ohio State to help the Sooners D immensely .It must be noted that when he was with the Washington State Cougars of the PAC12 he knew very well how to handle that pass heavy conference. Meanwhile, Houston despite of still having a a capable attack, will still see a head coach Dana Holgorsen who in the past used pocket passers to move the ball efficiently. None of his previous QBS however were like D’Eriq King behind the 2nd adjusted pace. At W.Virginia they had a adjusted pace of 48th so there is a difference here that the Sooners new D could take advantage of, and subsequently slow down as this game progresses behind what will be a more aggressive pressure defence.
CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OKLAHOMA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (HOUSTON) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 40-13 UNDER UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-01-19||Mets -106 v. Phillies||2-5||Loss||-106||9 h 49 m||Show|
The Mets won Saturday afternoon as Wilson Ramos had four hits to extend his hitting streak to a career-high 24 games and Todd Frazier delivered three hits and a pair of RBIs in a 6-3 win and Im betting they notch a win here tonight in prime time action.
Todays pitching matchup features: the Mets Stroman who is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three career appearances (one start) against the Phillies and Z Eflin who is 3-4 with a 6.00 ERA in nine starts against the Mets, whom he's faced more than any other opponent. in his career.
Philadelphia is also 0-8 on the ML with Eflin as a underdog and he gave up no walks in his last start. EFLIN is 0-11 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
EFLIN is 0-8 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 9-4 against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.NY METS are 26-6 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.
KAPLER is 8-20 against the money line in September games as the manager of PHILADELPHIA.
Play on the NY Mets to win on the ML
|09-01-19||Fever +9.5 v. Lynx||73-81||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
Lynx star Maya Moore is sitting out and fellow superstar Seimone Augustus not 100 percent and with a play off spot locked up Im betting we see this team more interested in staying healthy than playing all out hoops. With that said, look for up and coming star rookie Teaira McCowan (9.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) to lead Indiana in what Im betting will be a competitive effort.
MINNESOTA is 2-12 ATS L/14 in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games.
WNBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games after 15 or more games are 58-19 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indiana to cover
|09-01-19||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 10||4-3||Loss||-102||5 h 17 m||Show|
Dodgers Ross Stripling (4-4, 3.64 ERA, 76 SO)Stripling will be activated from the injured list to make his first start since July 24. The right-hander is expected to pitch only two or three innings before the Dodgers turn to righty Dustin May, who made four starts in August and Im betting he has his hands full with the suddenly hot Arizona team on a 6 game win streak and output of 22 runs in their L/3 games. Meanwhile, Young the Dbacks starter had his shortest start of the season at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 10, giving up four runs and five hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 4-0 loss. Note: The Dodgers have scored 29 runs in their L/5 games and Im betting continue their ferocious hot hitting in their quest for a play off spot here this afternoon.
Over is 20-6-1 in Dodgers last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning recordOver is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games.Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona.Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
|09-01-19||Orioles v. Royals -123||4-6||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Southpaw KC hurler Danny Duffy (5-6, 4.93 ERA, 90 SO)Duffy is expected to be activated on Sunday. He last pitched last Sunday on a rehab assignment with Double-A Northwest Arkansas and gave up one run over five innings. He likely will have a 90-pitch limit. My own projections tells me he matches up well vs this very inconsistent Os batting order and gets my support here today. Duffy won his last start against the Orioles, 15-7, on May 8, 2018 in Baltimore. He's 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA lifetime vs. Baltimore, his lowest ERA vs. any opponent (minimum three starts) in his career. These teams split the first to game of this series.. However it must be noted that the Orioles are 1-12 on the ML L/13 away when it is the last game of a three game series and they split the first two games. DUFFY is 43-22 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 4-21 against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 6-23 against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more ), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 54-18 L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the KC Royals to win on the ML
|08-31-19||Fresno State v. USC UNDER 52.5||23-31||Loss||-109||14 h 56 m||Show|
Im betting Fresno States D, remains their strong point, and that their 25 game streak of holding opponents to 30 points or less remains intact. Meanwhile, look for USCs core of 4 and 5 star recruits on D, to stand tall and limit Fresno States offence to a minimal output . Early on in the season Defences have an edge on offences and that gives me credence in my under projection here in game 1 for both teams in this non conference battle.
FRESNO ST is 7-0 UNDER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg going on the board. FRESNO ST is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.
USC is 18-6 L/24 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 with a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.
Play on the UNDER
|08-31-19||Padres v. Giants -105||4-1||Loss||-105||9 h 10 m||Show|
Lucchesi a native of Oakland California has gone 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two San Francisco homecomings this season and is fade material here today again. LUCCHESI is 7-18 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 3-9 against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
MLB Road teams (SAN DIEGO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 32-62 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the SF Giants to win on the ML
|08-31-19||Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas||14-45||Loss||-102||59 h 33 m||Show|
Texas upset Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, 28-21 and since than Longhorns nation has been standing proud. . However, with starting QB Ehlinger now having to deal with three of his starting offensive linemen gone and current group RBs banged up in camp as per reports Im betting the sledding could be a lot tougher than many might expect. On defence the Longhorns have to replace three starting defensive linemen, two LBs and both starting CBs. I know that Texas will be motivated to honour former RB Cedric Benson who passed a couple of weeks ago in a motorcycle accident, but covering the number here could still prove difficult considering the alliterations this football program will have to endure here early in the season. Meanwhile, HC Skip Holtz remains a very good coach and operates and recruits a never say die group of kids that have endured five 1-point losses over the last three seasons. Im betting he once again makes life difficult for an opponent, and gets us the cover. It must be noted that Texas has failed to cover 19 of their L/27 as non conference favs while Holtz on the other hand thrives in the underdog role cashing (49 of the L/63 times for a 77% conversion rate for bettors).Holtz is also 34-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached since 1992.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games.
Play on LA Tech to cover
|08-31-19||Georgia Southern +28 v. LSU||3-55||Loss||-110||83 h 35 m||Show|
LSU's Orgeron is a well liked coach, but from a bettors perspective his backers may not be all that fond of him considering his 0-4 ATS record in his last four non-conference home games, and his 1-4 ATS record as a favorite of 21 or more points. It must also be noted last season, against SE Louisiana a lower tier football team, the Bayou Bengals looked very average and unmotivated. Today a under rated Georgia Southern team off a 10 win campaign must not be underestimated in their abilities to find a way to cover here today vs a behemoth SEC foe.HC Chad Lunsfords reinstatement of the power running game, made GSouthern dangerous and nothing changes today. The Eagles are 3-0 ATS all time vs SEC and have covered 5 of their L/6 as 20 point or more underdogs. With Texas on board for Oregeron and company, the Tigers full attention, might be lacking making them unreliable favs here despite of public perceptions.
LSU is 0-6 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Georgia Southern to cover
|08-31-19||Virginia v. Pittsburgh +3||30-14||Loss||-115||10 h 34 m||Show|
Pittsburgh's QB Kenny Pickett is a veteran quarterback and under rated and , his receiving corps is of the top tier variety and wont be intimidated by Virginia's experienced D. Meanwhile, on my over rated charts,Cav QB Bryce Perkins is key here, as he and his team are expected by most pundits to win their conference this season. But today things wont come easily vs a well coached Panthers team that has won 4 straight in this series grabs the cash.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
|08-31-19||Incarnate Word v. UTSA -6.5||7-35||Win||100||32 h 41 m||Show|
UTSA has bigger and better athletes, and despite of what Incarnate Word was able to do in a lower tier division their out of their league ( co champions and undefated in San Antonio) and should be pounded by the Roadrunners as this tilt progresses. No one is going to take UIW for granted , thus Im expecting an all out effort by UTSA, which makes this an easy lay.
Play on UTSA to cover
|08-31-19||Sam Houston State +9.5 v. New Mexico||31-39||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
Lobos are in a transition season with new dynamics and schemes and are expected to possibly highlight four QBs today. Needless to say their cohesiveness could be tested. Meanwhile, the Sam Houston BearKats come in nationally ranked, 22nd in the preseason poll by Stats FCS, and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover here vs a team like New Mexico.
Lobos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in August. Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Lobos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.v Lobos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Play on Sam Houston to cover
|08-31-19||Duke +35 v. Alabama||3-42||Loss||-110||30 h 43 m||Show|
The public is all over Alabama but it must be noted that HC Saban has been inconsistent as a large favorite covering just 11 of 33 games when favored by 30 or more points. Meanwhile, Duke HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 SU lifetime in season openers with the three losses coming by an average of 5.56 ppg.
The Blue Devils return the top two rushers and the most experienced part of their defense. abd look fairly solid and more than capable of being competitive. Meanwhile, Alabama loses Damien Harris and most of the offensive line and it must also be noted that this game is being played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where QB Tagovailoa had a bad game while looking uncomfortable playing on that surface ,converting just t 10-of-25 passes for just 165 yards and 2 interceptions against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Could this environment trigger a PTSD event? Im betting it does .
DUKE is 6-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.DUKE is 24-8 ATS in games played on turf.
ALABAMA is 8-19 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.DUKE is 28-13 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.
Take the points with Duke to cover
|08-31-19||Mississippi State -20 v. UL-Lafayette||38-28||Loss||-108||76 h 23 m||Show|
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
The Mississippi State Bulldogs delivered 8 wins last season and ranked No. 1 in the nation in defence and this season Im betting their offence chips in and makes this side very under rated. Meanwhile, the Ragin Cajuns despite of a top tier recruiting class and success last season in a 7 win campaign, are over matched here today. The Cajuns might be out looking for revenge for a 56-10 smash down last season to the Bulldogs, but Im betting they will fail as they make it 36 straight losses to a SEC school. Note: UL-Lafayette are an ugly 0-28 ATS in their last 28 SU home losses versus lined opponents.
CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% covnersion rate for bettors.
Play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to cover