|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-20-18||Wild v. Penguins UNDER 6.5||1-2||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
Going into a game Thursday against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena, Minnesota has just one goal over its past two games, including a 4-0 loss Tuesday against San Jose. Meanwhile, the Penguins are off a gruelling 2-1 victory vs the Capitals and then traveled home last night from Washington and will now be on tired legs in this spot. The combination of the Pens exhaustion and the Wilds lack of scoring of late, will Im betting lead to a score that stays on the low side of the number in this spot.Under is 4-1-2 in Wild last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-1-1 in Wild last 6 road games.Under is 6-2-1 in Penguins last 9 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.Under is 8-3-1 in Penguins last 12 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game
NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (PITTSBURGH) - off a road win against a division rival are 225-154 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-20-18||James Madison v. Fordham OVER 129||48-75||Loss||-115||9 h 25 m||Show|
Fordham plays some solid defence, and James Madison ha shown a propensity to be inconsistent offensively of late, but from a system vs system standpoints, Im betting that these teams will eclipse this ultra low total based on my projections .
JAMES MADISON is 10-1 OVER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 150.4 ppg scored.JAMES MADISON is 10-2 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 154.6 ppg scored.
JAMES MADISON is 20-5 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 152.7 ppg going on the board.JAMES MADISON is 6-0 OVER after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.5 ppg going on the board.JAMES MADISON is 11-2 OVER off a road loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 147.2 ppg scored.
Play on the OVER
|12-20-18||Yale v. Monmouth +10||66-58||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
Monmouth is playing its first game in 12 days dating back to December 8th at Albany and should be ready to compete vs a very good Yale team here . I know Monmouth is a ugly 0-11 SU on the season, but because of this this.... the line is a little bit tainted and we now have value with the home side.
Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games following three or more consecutive road gamesBulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Metro Atlantic Athletic.CBB A home team vs. the money line (MONMOUTH) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, terrible team, winning 20% or less of their games on the season are 31-25 SU L/5 seasons.
Take the points with Monmouth
|12-20-18||Ohio v. Purdue UNDER 147.5||67-95||Loss||-110||6 h 24 m||Show|
Purdue enters Thursday's contest with the Bobcats with a 6-5 record and will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, that surrounds around playing uncharacteristically soft defensive basketball . Painters team Im betting in an effort to get back in a winning mind set will be very physical and defensive minded here vs over matched Ohio as they prepare to go on break before taking on Big 10 conference play.
Ohio is 7-3 after defeating Detroit Mercy 63-61 and Radford in its last two games which were defensive and physical in nature, and nothing will change here as they look to stop the flow of a superior Power 5 team.
PURDUE is 12-3 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 139.2 ppg scored. Painter is 14-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 as the coach of PURDUE.
OHIO U is 10-2 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 143.3 ppg.
|12-19-18||Warriors v. Jazz +3.5||103-108||Win||100||15 h 32 m||Show|
The Jazz and the Warriors enter this game playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. But despite of that Im betting he Jazz will be ready for a top tier team they handle well as is evident by winning 3 of the L/4 meetings with the only loss suffered last time out by a 124-123 score here in Salt Lake City on Oct 17 of this season. It must also be noted that there are many ebbs and flows to a NBA season, and current form does not always indicate how a game will be played out. Matchup discrepancies, system vs system, and coaching consistencies trump form in a league that can see performance charts change over a short period of time and game to game. With that said, Im backing the slumping Jazz to right their ship tonight vs the defending champion Warriors here in their own backyard.
NBA team vs the money line (UTAH) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 23-4 L22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Utah Jazz to cover
|12-19-18||Warriors v. Jazz OVER 218||103-108||Loss||-115||13 h 19 m||Show|
Golden State enters this game doing what they do best and that is put points up on the board in bunches, as is evident by their 3rd overall ppg output of 115.9 ppg and 1st overall offensive efficiency. You have to be able to score to compete with the Warriors, and they will actually force their opponent to playing a more wide open style of basketball under most circumstances. With that said, Im betting the defensive minded Jazz will be forced to ratchet up the pace here tonight and convert more consistently vs the Warriors 15th ranked D, as was the case when they lost to the Warriors in a hard fought 124-123 effort back on Oct 19 of this season here in Utah. Im bettong on a similar type average combined offensive output in tonight Salt Lake City rematch.
Note: My projections estimate both sides will score 109 or more points in this tilt. UTAH is 12-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 14-1 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 242 ppg scored.
UTAH is 14-4 OVER after playing a road game this season with a combined average of 222.1 ppg going on the board.
UTAH is 7-0 OVER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 226.3 pig scored.GOLDEN STATE in their L/25 road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 228.7 ppg go on the scoreboard.
|12-19-18||Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6.5||2-1||Win||113||11 h 28 m||Show|
These are two of the Eastern Conference long standing elite teams, and tonightIm expecting a hard fought physical defensive affair when they meet. That Im betting results in a combined score that remains on the low side the total. WASHINGTON is 13-3 UNDER after winning 2 consecutive games in overtime with a combined average score of 5.1 gpg scored which ash just happened.Under is 5-1-2 in Penguins last 8 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.
NHL Home teams against the total (WASHINGTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after scoring 4 goals or more in 4 straight games are 80-47 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.
NHL team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 93-60 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||27-0||Loss||-100||154 h 55 m||Show|
FRISCO BOWL - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX
Ohio's Frank Solich has an explosive offensive team, but San Diego State despite of 3 consecutive losses to finish out their season are a side that must not be underestimated , especially with HC Rocky Long on the side lines. With that said, in a battle, that will feature the Aztecs’ No. 4 ranked rush defense (95 YPG and 2.7 YPR) and Ohio’s big time rushing offense (262 YPG and 6.1 YPR) I feel a stalemate type of game will be played with the points eventually proving to be golden.
Long is 9-2 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.SAN DIEGO ST is 11-2 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points which happened in Hawaii In their last game of the season.
OHIO U is 1-10 ATS L/11 in road games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
Play on SD State to cover
|12-19-18||UC-Santa Barbara v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 144.5||74-85||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
Nebraska Omaha in their 3 true home games this season have averaged 83 ppg, and Im betting will push the action here tonight vs a Santa Barbara team, that despite of being able to play solid defence, can light it up when called upon, averaging 74.9 ppg overall. With that said, Im betting on this Toal being eclipsed.
UC-SANTA BARBARA is 23-10 OVER in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season with a combined average of 149 ppg going on the board.UC-SANTA BARBARA is 10-1 OVER in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 160 ppg going on the scoreboard.UC-SANTA BARBARA is 11-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons and is 8-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last 2 seasons. UC-SANTA BARBARA is 6-0 OVER as a road favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 162.8 ppg scored.
|12-19-18||Western Kentucky +8 v. Belmont||74-80||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
The Hilltoppers are off a rare 87-81 at home to Troy on Dec. 16, snapping a streak of eight straight wins for WKU inside E.A. Diddle Arena . Meanwhile, Belmont is coming off a huge 74-72 road win at UCLA on Saturday and could easily be in a letdown spot. Public money is all over this one with Belmont. I like the situation and the opportunity to fade the public here.
W KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.W KENTUCKY is 13-5 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
Stansbury is 16-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of W KENTUCKY.Byrd is 3-11 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of BELMONT.
Play on W.Kentucky to cover
|12-19-18||Spurs v. Magic +1||129-90||Loss||-110||12 h 48 m||Show|
San Antonio has been playing better hoops of late after a slow start to their campaign, but in the past being in top form than going on the road has not always been a profitable situation for their betting backers as they are just 1-9 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons
Meanwhile, Orlando after struggling with defence early on the season, are now playing a more physical and methodical brand of basketball that has seen them hold 4 of their 7 opponents under 91 points, and has resulted in them winning 2 straight games thanks to their more responsible defensive stances. As a result the Magic have played some low scoring tilts of late, which have in the past translated in positive ATS results for them and their backers as ORLANDO is 10-0 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
Tonight Im betting the home team, takes the Spurs offensive flow away, and systematically slows their opposition down on their way to a win, much like they did when they met the Spurs back on Nov. 4 in Texas taking out the Spurs by a 117-110 count.
NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 28-8 L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or better on the season against opponent after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 4-25 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Orlando Magic to cover
|12-19-18||NC-Wilmington +12 v. Georgia State||71-86||Loss||-110||6 h 27 m||Show|
The Seahawks, 4-7, visit former Colonial Athletic Association rival Georgia State, 7-4. The Seahawks has lost three in a row to high-profile opponents, including last Saturday's setback at nationally-ranked Furman. But those games will have them ready to compete here vs this type of versatile opponent in Georgia State.
Take the points herewith the NC Wilmington
|12-18-18||South Dakota State v. Eastern Washington +7.5||74-64||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
Eastern Washington hosts a strong Jackrabbits team that are 9-4 following last Saturday's 72-68 loss at unbeaten Nevada (11-0). Im betting after that hard fought loss that South Dakota State will be a in natural letdown situation, vs a struggling team that Im sure their overlooking.
E WASHINGTON is 24-10 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Play on E.Washington to cover
|12-18-18||Chattanooga v. Tennessee-Martin -5||72-75||Loss||-125||9 h 32 m||Show|
UT Chatanooga enter this game off a 20 point loss to Mississippi last time out, and will now be in a letdown spot after playing a superior SEC team that Im sure they were pumped to play against. In the past when Chat has been blown out they have not faired well in their followup as is evident by going just 0-10 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is 0-8 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
UT Martin is a perfect 4-0 at home during the 2018-19 campaign and get the nod again to win and more importantly cover in this spot behind a lineup that boast six players who average double-figures in the scoring column while six different UT Martin players have led the team in scoring through the season's first eight games.
Play UT Martin to cover
|12-18-18||Evansville v. Murray State -14.5||64-66||Loss||-104||8 h 53 m||Show|
The Murray State Racers (7-1) look to extend their 13-game home winning streak when they welcome the Evansville Purple Aces (5-5) into the CFSB Center. I know we have to lay DDs here with the Racers, but they have this line right, and actually short on it in my humble opinion.The Racers lead the OVC in blocked shots (5.9 per game), field goal percentage defense (.351, which is second in all of NCAA D-I), 3-point percentage defense (.205, first in the nation) and scoring defense (56.5ppg, fifth in the country). Last week in wins over Southern Illinois and Jackson State, the Racers only gave up seven 3-pointers in 80 minutes of basketball. Domination is the name of the game here tonight at home in front of their own alumni.
Play on the Murray State to cover
|12-18-18||Wizards v. Hawks +3.5||110-118||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
Washingtons been harping on playing better D , and they acquired two way stalwart Trevor Ariza to help them out in that department. However, for now Im betting it will take their own flow away and hinder them more than help at least for now. I know Atlanta does not inspire bettors, but this young team has endless energy and can grind away at an opponent with non stop energizer bunny type of hoops. With that said, Im betting on Atlanta covering here tonight, vs a Washington team that has played its absolute worst hoops on the road this season where they are 4-12 SU/ATS.
WASHINGTON is 3-12 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games this season and is 0-9 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games this season is 0-8 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. ( Beat LAL 125-110 last time out). WASHINGTON is 0-8 ATS in road games after a non-conference game this season.
NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in December games are 42-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%or more of their shots are 1-10 SU this season.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|12-18-18||Bradley +5 v. Georgia Southern||74-79||Push||0||10 h 30 m||Show|
Both these teams have shown flashes of brilliance this season, and both have looked a little tepid in their play of late. But according to my power rankings they matchup very well against each other in a game that could easily be a pickem.
BU has lost 3-of-4 after a 6-1 start and is 7-4 during the 2018-19 season with a 1-2 road record. The Braves did win their last road game with a 68-62 victory at Little Rock on Dec. 4. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern enters the game with a 7-3 record in 2018-19. The Eagles have lost three of their last five after a 5-0 start.
The last time these teams mets Bradley held a Eagles team that was averaging 83.5 points per game to just 57 in a five-point victory. Right now Georgia Southern run and guns just the opposite of the Braves, averaging 89.7 points per game but allowing 76.7. In 11 games, the Braves have learned they will only go as far as their defense takes them.In its seven wins, Bradley is allowing only 61.4 points per game. That what Im betting on here being key to us getting the cover. DEFENCE. Just like ion last seasons victory.
Bradley is 15-8 all-time against current members of the Sun Belt Conference.
Take the points with Bradley to cover
|12-18-18||Xavier -2.5 v. Missouri||56-71||Loss||-111||7 h 10 m||Show|
Xavier, 7-4, is coming off a 95-77 win over Eastern Kentucky on Saturday at Cintas Center. Xavier shot 71.4 percent (35-of-49) from the field, the highest single-game effort by any team in the nation so far this season and roll in this game with a fullhead of steam and momentum on their sides here in Missouri Tuesday night. Xavier has had faired well against current teams in the Southeastern Conference despite its 88-79 overtime loss to No. 8 Auburn on Nov. 19 at the Maui Invitational. XU is 19-6 in its last 25 games against nine different current SEC members dating back to 2008 and get the nod again in a positive matchup situation.
MISSOURI is 6-20 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1997.
Play on Xavier to cover
|12-18-18||Drexel +14.5 v. Connecticut||65-97||Loss||-105||7 h 45 m||Show|
Drexel enters the game averaging more than 82 points per contest, tops in the Colonial Athletic Association. All five starters average at least 10 points and are a dangerous side, even against a team like UConn that is over rated because of consistent wins vs mid major teams, but is still not back to being a national championship contender just yet . According to my projections we have alot of value here on a bloated DD line based on false assumptions.
Play on Drexel to cover
|12-17-18||Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 210||93-110||Win||100||15 h 59 m||Show|
Memphis has not breached the 99 point plateau in 5 straight games and 7 of their L/8 overall and are ranked 28th in the league in offensive output averaging 102.5 ppg behind the 30th ranked pace. The Grizzlies saving grace is their defence that is ranked 2nd in points per game allowed ( 102.1 ppg). Needless to say the Grizzlies are methodical in their approach to their games, and will be even more so, here this evening vs a explosive Golden State Warriors team, that when pushed can out run and gun anybody in this league, but to this point in the season, have preferred a more systematic approach and rank just 11th in pace. Tonight Im betting the Grizzlies do everything in their power to make this a ugly grinding affair, and for this to result in a a lack of flow which results in a total score that remains on the low side of the offered Total.Under is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 12-3 in Warriors last 15 vs. NBA Southwest.Under is 12-4 in Warriors last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 18-8 in Warriors last 26 vs. Western Conference.Under is 15-7 in Warriors last 22 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and 7-3 UNDER L/10 here in Oakland.
Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 31-7 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with combined average 191.6 ppg scored.
|12-17-18||Islanders v. Avalanche UNDER 6||4-1||Win||113||10 h 39 m||Show|
The Islanders average 2.9 goals per game but only 2.3 in the last seven, and are playing more conservative style of defensive hockey as this season progresses .With that said, tonight against e a offensively explosive Colorado team, Im expecting more of the same methodical transitional hockey from the Isles in a game that Im betting will fall under the set total.
NY ISLANDERS are 12-5 UNDER against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better pp this season. COLORADO is 5-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game this season which happened last time out in a 6-4 win vs Dallas.
NHL Home teams against the total (COLORADO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 29-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||12-9||Win||100||83 h 23 m||Show|
The Saints came from behind for a win last week vs TB, to clinch their division title, and will now be in a letdown spot. With all the hard fought games that the Saints have won lately, and their overall output not looking as consistent as did earlier in the season, as scouting staffs start to figure out their offence, they don't look like viable favs here on the road in Carolina . I know the Panthers may not inspire bettors but Ron Rivera's team that has out yarded 4 of their L/5 foes despite of finding way to lose all 5 tilts. The Panthers are also 11-0 ATS L/11 covering by more than 15 ppg, as a dog off a road loss where they failed to cover. The Panthers are also 8-0 ATS as a dog after they made at least 5 third downs last game. HC Ron Rivera is 8-1 ATS during December in games when going against opponents coming off a SUATS win, going 8-1 SUATS in his career.
CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season. HC Payton is 3-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers UNDER 50||12-9||Win||100||14 h 57 m||Show|
The Saints clinched a division title last week, and Im betting will now be in a letdown situation that will see their attack muted. Meanwhile, I expect Carolina to play a more grinding clock consuming style of football in an attempt to slow and take the flow away from what has been a dynamic offence this season. This combination of projected occurrences Im also betting will be responsible for a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.
CAROLINA is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games with a combined average of 41.3 ppg going on he board. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.1 ppg.
Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 road games.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games in Week 15.Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in December.Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.
NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - after a 2 game road trip, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 61-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-17-18||Ball State v. Valparaiso -1||77-61||Loss||-109||10 h 50 m||Show|
Valpo is off defeating George Washington in Washington, D.C. by an 82-79 final and have momentum entering this game. Note: Valpo enjoyed its second strong shooting performance in the last three games, hitting at a 53.6% clip (30-of-56) from the field.
The two hoops programs have matched up nine times over the last 12 seasons, and Valpo has won the last five matchups on its home court against the Cardinals and get the nod again according to my power rankings and projections.
Valpo posted a 10-4 record at home last year, its eighth consecutive season reaching double figures in home victories
- Valpo has recorded a 60-9 (.870) mark in home games since the start of the 2014-15 season.
- Over the last 23 years, Valpo owns a 295-65 (.819) record on its home court at the ARC.
BALL ST is 1-8 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. BALL ST is 25-62 ATS L/ 87 off a road loss by 10 points or more.BALL ST is 2-9 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.BALL ST is 4-13 ATS after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.
Play on Valparaiso to cover
|12-17-18||Bucks v. Pistons +4||107-104||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
Detroit's ended a six-game losing streak this past Saturday night by defeating the Boston' Celtics and ending their opponents eight-game winning streak with a 113-104 victory at Little Caesars Arena. With momentum on their sides, I now expect the Pistons to give the Bucks a team that has won 3 of their L/4 a fight for their money in their spot. Detroit is 3-1 SU l/4 at home in this series, and are 4-1 in division games this season!
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 14-25 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game, in December games are 103-185 L/22 seasons for a go against 64% SU conversion rate foe bettors.
NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, first half of the season are 14-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Detroit Pistons to cover
|12-17-18||Davidson v. Wake Forest +2||63-67||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
The Deacons after being off for 10 days for exams are fresh and ready to play a Davidson team Monday night that should rank as the best team Wake Forest has played this season.Before the break in a DD win, Wake Forest held Charlotte to a 3-for-18 clip from beyond the arc, a season-best in 3s made and in percentage allowed (16.7 percent). Davidson is a trey heavy group , with 47.6 percent of its shots coming from behind the arc. Im betting the Deacons ability to limit them will the difference maker here this evening.
CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DAVIDSON) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 12-40 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Wake Forest to cover
|12-16-18||Eagles +11.5 v. Rams||30-23||Win||100||60 h 13 m||Show|
This must be very humiliating for a NFL championship team like the Philadelphia Eagles to be DD underdogs to a LA Rams team that despite of being explosive and respected by the public and pundits a like has still not won anything. Im betting the Eagles are pumped to prove their detractors wrong and to finally show us what made them champs last season, vs a team that already has a play off spot marked on the calendars and have little left to play for and just want to stay healthy . With that said, it must be noted that defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0 ATS since 1980 as underdogs of more than 9 points and Im betting they will be 4-0 ATS when this final whistle blows here tonight.
Injury update: Wentz is a not a 100% go here this week and if he does not play, the Eagles will go with Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory last season. So either way this game remains a play on situation for the Eagles.
NFLRoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December game are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|12-16-18||Raptors v. Nuggets +3||86-95||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
Sunday night's key prime time matchup in the NBA features the top teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences. Both teams are banged up, and missing players. But one key players that Im betting makes a difference here tonight will be hard to replace for the Raptors and that is center Jonas Valanciunas, who just underwent surgery and is out for extended period of time.It must also be noted that Raps Forward Kawhi Leonard also just recently missed two games with a hip injury, and is less than 100% and guard Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable for Sunday's game with a thigh injury.The Nuggets snapped the Raptors' eight-game winning streak with a 106-103 victory on Dec. 3 and I know the Raps will be out looking for revenge, but you don'T always get what you want as the Nuggets matchup well vs this type of opponent.
Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest and are 3-8 ATS L/11 in Denver.Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall
Denver is 14-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. Denver is 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Toronto.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 43-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover
|12-16-18||Heat +7 v. Pelicans||102-96||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
I'll start off by saying that I am not much an admirer of the Pelicans and HC Gentry system. I know he has hands full trying to find stablemates and side kicks for super star Anthony Davis, but this team, runs on Davis's energy, and when he's not 100% , which he's not, the team is also less than 100% The Pelicans have not won back to back games since mid November , and just don't have any real consistency. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the Heat, are a well coached team behind, Spoelstra who knows how to deal with teams like the Pelicans going 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game. Miami despite of not having a super star like Davis in their lineup work hard, and Im betting they get us the cover in this spot via their usual blue collar efforts.
Spoelstra is 22-8 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games as the coach of MIAMI.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-11 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.
Play on the Miami Heat to cover
|12-16-18||Pacific -4.5 v. CS-Northridge||79-77||Loss||-103||8 h 53 m||Show|
CSUN is coming off of a ugly loss at San Diego, which halted a two game win streak for the Matadors.They are 3-6 overall, which includes a 1-3 home record. Im betting they are at a disadvantage vs a Pacific team on a 3 game winning streak.The Tigers are 23-6 all-time, 8-4 on the road against the Matadors.Pacific holds a 4-0 record in its last four meetings with CSUN. Dorsey currently leads Pacific in points per game (14.0), converting on 44.5 percent from the floor and a WCC-leading 95.8 percent effort from the free throw line. He has only missed two free throws all season (46-48) and has made 21 straight from the stripe. He will be the difference maker today for Pacific in what Im betting is a win and cover . -NORTHRIDGE is 9-19 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and 6-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons and also just and just 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5 over the last 3 seasons.
CBB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CS-NORTHRIDGE) - playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 55-95 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
CBB Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CS-NORTHRIDGE) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 1-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 9.8 ppg.
Play on Pacific to cover
|12-16-18||Patriots -1.5 v. Steelers||10-17||Loss||-115||96 h 7 m||Show|
New England enters this tilt against struggling Pittsburgh behind future HOF QB Tom Brady off a loss vs the Dolphins last time out (34-33), as their bad luck vs them was extended thanks to a freak play that saw the Dolphins win on the last play of the game . The Pats are now just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when Brady plays the Fins in Miami .There is a silver lining however, here, as Brady is 25-2 SU overall away during the final month of the season, and when going against a below .600 team that does not include the Dolphins he is a perfect 17-0 SU.New England is also 23-5 SU off a loss since 2010, including 15-3 SUATS away. With Pittsburghs Big Ben Rothlisberger not completely 100% healthy and showing signs of his advanced age, and the beatings he has taken in his career the Steelers don't look like solid options here.
Belichick is 7-0 ATS L/7 off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons
NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-7 ATS L/35 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the New England Patriots to cover
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||23-26||Win||100||81 h 44 m||Show|
San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but have been competitive at home lately , beating Denver last week, and prior to that pounding Oakland 34-3 and then losing a heart breaker to the up trending NY Giants 27-23. Two weeks ago they were annihilated on the scoreboard 43-16 by the team their hosting today the Seahawks back in Seattle . Note: Seahawks were however outgunned by 127 yards in that above mentioned tilt so the score was not indicative of the play, and as a matter of fact the Seahawks have managed Ws of late despite of being out yarded in 3 straight tilts. So Pete Carrolls Seabirds are performing optimally behind a Las Vegas style smoke and mirrors magic show and are not solid road favs here despite of the all the accolades their getting. With revenge on board I now expect the 49ers to make a game of this and get us the cover, vs a side that in my humble opinion is a over rated public favorite.
NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 ATS L/35 seasons for a 69% long term conversion rate for bettors.
Play on SF 49ers to cover
|12-16-18||Troy State v. Western Kentucky OVER 143.5||87-81||Win||100||2 h 29 m||Show|
Western Kentucky is averaging 87 ppg at home this season, and will force Troy into a uptempo game. Troy has averaged 75+ ppg so they can can reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their won when called upon. and scored 88 points last time out. With that said, look for this tilt to end up on the high side of the Total.
TROY is 7-0 OVER versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 157 ppg scored.
HC Stansbury is 15-4 OVER in home games off an upset win as an underdog in all games with a combined average of 149.8 ppg scored. ( W.Kentucky upset @ Arkansas 78-77 last time out) Look for them to run and with confidence in the followup)
CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (W KENTUCKY) - off a road win, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 27-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||100 h 25 m||Show|
The Cowboys are red hot right now and have won and covered 5 straight, but they are in an emotional letdown spot after a hard fought OT victory vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last time out. and susceptible to being flat in an unfriendly environment. Thats not a good omen for the Boyz chances this week as NFL teams coming off a SUATS OT victory are just 13-31-1 ATS the last four seasons, including 6-23 SUATS when they're not the favorite. Furthermore, Indy QB Andrew Luck is a money QB and owns a 13-4 ATS career mark at home in games against foes with a better record, The Colts are no pushovers and have won 6 of their L/7 and deserve to be favoured in this tilt against Americas team , as they are one of only three teams to rank in the Top 10 in both total offence and total defence.
DALLAS is 14-30 ATS L/44 in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 game.
NFL Home favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants OVER 43.5||17-0||Loss||-104||52 h 27 m||Show|
The NY Giants offence is clicking on all cylinders and are off a 40-16 win vs the Redskins last time out. Look for a two pronged attack behind a talented receiving core, and the running game of future star RB Saquan Barkley to force the ultra conservative Titans into opening up this week behind the very capable QB Mariotta. . Note Barkley became the first Giants running back to rush for 1,000 yards since Ahmad Bradshaw in 2012 and the first rookie in franchise history to accomplish the feat. The Giants are 13-0 OVER at home off a six-plus point victory in which fewer than 30 percent of their first downs were from third down, as long as the OU line is less than 50 points. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE/NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games are 28-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants||17-0||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
The Tennessee Titans must win their final three games to have a chance at the AFC's final wild-card spot, starting Sunday on the road against the New York Giants. Needless to say the Titans will be aggressive and hell bent on staying alive here vs the Giants today. I know the Omen have been playing well and have won 2 straight, but against a desperate opponent with the backs up against the wall Im betting they 're in trouble today.
NY GIANTS are 7-20 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).
Injury update: NYG Odell Beckham Jr is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Tennessee ( Quad ).
NFLHome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover
|12-15-18||LSU v. St. Mary's +3.5||78-74||Loss||-109||13 h 3 m||Show|
at T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, NV
After losing to No. 24 Houston in its last outing, the LSU has to adjust to a aa different style of play here tonight vs St.Mary's.(Saint Mary’s) runs a European-style offense, as they use alot of guard screen action, with a lot of different cutting actions. Im betting this poses some problem for the Tigers.Ford, the Gaels’ leading scorer at 22.5 points per game, is hitting 51.5 percent from the field and makes 44.0 percent of his shots from beyond the 3-point arc and will be key here.As a team, Saint Mary’s is connecting on 49.7 of its field-goal attempts and shoots 39.1 percent from 3-point range. Bottom line, this is a tough turnaround situation for LSU after playing Houston, and a slow start here could doom them here, or at least give us a very viable opportunity for us to get a cover here.
Play on St.Marys to cover
|12-15-18||Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 226.5||104-110||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
The Clippers have struggled to score consistently of late and have scored 99 points or less in 4 of their L/5 games. Im betting their offensive woes will continue tonight vs a Thunder team that ranks 5th in defensive efficiency. This will translate in a much lower scoring tilt than the lines makers estimate.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 203.2 pig scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.7 ppg and is 54-31 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 3 season s with a combined average of 211.9 ppg.
NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|12-15-18||USC v. Oklahoma -8.5||70-81||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
The Sooners enter this game against USC with a 8-1 start all out of conference wins, using defence rather than offence to get the job sone. The Sooners are coming off one of their best defensive performances in recent seasons , holding Wichita State to 48 points on 15-of-62 (.242) shooting their last time out, and has held its opponent to 60 or fewer points four of its last six games and are well prepared to face the Trojans are with momentum on their sides. Oklahoma’s defense has been especially dominate late in the game. In OU’s eight victories, its opposition are shooting a combined 30.1 percent (20.5 percent from 3) in the last 15 minutes of the game, giving me confidence in the Sooners ability to finish this tilt strong and get us the cover .The Sooners are 5-0 against Pac-12 opponents during the Lon Kruger era and they get the nod again and im more importantly the cover.
OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season with he point diff clicking in at 15.8 ppg this season.
HC Enfield is 1-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of US and is 10-21 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more ) as the coach of USC with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.6 ppg.
Play on Oklahoma to cover
|12-15-18||Eastern Illinois +13.5 v. Bradley||73-66||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
Eastern Illinois currently in top form looks to win its third straight game as the Panthers visit Bradley. The Braves 7-3 might have a winning record, but Im not overly impressed by them , and according to my projections are being over rated by the linesmakers here on the opening line. Bradley stopped a two game losing streak to Arkansas LR last time out, but had to come from behind to do it. Note: BRADLEY is 6-18 ATS after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half and is just 3-11 ATS on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Eastern Illinois to cover
|12-15-18||Celtics -2.5 v. Pistons||104-113||Loss||-105||8 h 41 m||Show|
Boston (18-10) has won eight straight, including a 129-108 victory over Atlanta on Friday night and enter this game against their hosts the Pistons with a full head of steam, and despite of a heavy schedule still lookalike very viable options to cover vs a team they matchup well against. Note: NBA Favorites SU (BOSTON) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are good long term bets going 43-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 10.5 ppg making this a viable cover situation for the Celtics .
BOSTON is also 12-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The Celtics have already beaten the Pistons twice this season. They smashed them at Little Caesars Arena 109-89 on Oct. 27, then beat them in Boston 108-105 three nights later. Note: The Pistons are just 0-6 ATS L/6 vs the Celtics with same season double revenge .
DETROIT is 2-12 ATS in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 4 ppg.
Play on the Boston Celtics to cover
|12-15-18||Red Wings v. Islanders UNDER 6||3-4||Loss||-108||6 h 55 m||Show|
These two teams the visiting Detroit Red Wing and the their hosts the NY Islanders will square off for the second straight Saturday at the Nassau Coliseum. When these teams met last week , the Isles won 3-2. The Islanders behind HC Barry Trotz have taken a conservative approach using transition for their scoring chances for much of this season and have recently gone under 8 of their L/9 games. I expect more of the same conservative and disciplined hockey tonight vs a Detroit team that is in a bit of a offensive funk of late scoring 3 goals or less in their L/4 games and a score that remains on the low side of the total.
NY ISLANDERS are 10-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.DETROIT is 28-16 UNDER (+9.3 Units) in road games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or more of shots like the Isles Greiss against over the last 2 seasons.
NHL Road teams against the total (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival, extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 60-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-15-18||Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern -1||21-23||Win||100||73 h 42 m||Show|
CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
I was little surprised at how this line opened, so I looked as deep into this bowl game, and found no key injuries or news that would effect it. Georgia Southern is a very good team and own a 9-3 record compared to Eastern Michigan’s 7-5 recored. Yes, Eastern Michigan is a tough under rated team, but despite of being competitive don't have a killer instinct and consistently find ways to lose close games. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern should have more of their fans here than E.Michigan, because of the proximity of the location of this football game, and thus have more support in what will likely be a mostly empty stadium. Bottom line:
Georgia Southern is pound the ground type of offence , ranked 9th in the nation ( rush offence ) 260.8 ypg and have an advantage vs E.Michigans, 93rd ranked rush D that allows an average 4.43 ypc, and 192.9 ypg. The Southern Eagles get my support here on a short line.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Georgia Southern to cover
|12-15-18||Texans v. Jets +7||29-22||Push||0||47 h 41 m||Show|
The Texans were on a 9 game win streak heading into last week, and then lost . NFL teams that have won 9 in row in the past and had their win streak abruptly end have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 followups. I know the Jets do not inspire bettors, but with QB Sam Darnold healthy again, and off a win last week, I expect a confident top tier effort from home team today.
Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
exans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 15.Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS L/30in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 350or more yards/game in the second half of the season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
The underdog has covered the L/4 meetings. NYJ are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|12-15-18||Indiana v. Butler||71-68||Win||100||5 h 5 m||Show|
at Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
On Saturday, Butler (7-2) takes on No. 25 Indiana (8-2) in the Crossroads Classic.
This seasons Indiana team is much better than last years team and have already notched 4 top 50 kenpom victories. They have three straight victories over quality competition, and have a lot to prove here, on a national stage and Im betting they're up to it. Im also betting the difference will come at the charity stripe. Hey I know the Hoosiers have been highly inconsistent with their Its , but they still own a top-80 free throw rate despite making just 63.6 percent of their freebies. Meanwhile, Butler is ranked in the 260s in both offensive and defensive free throw rate. Look for Indiana to convert a fairly high percentage of the free throws and snatch a superior advantage at the charity stripe.
BUTLER is 1-8 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons and is 4-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better) over the last 2 seasons.
Butler's had an explosive performance at home last time out, with 95-68 rout of visiting Northern Illinois on Dec. 8. , but a regression should be expected bossed on recent top their efforts as they are 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.BUTLER is also 0-6 ATS in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons and is 0-8 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CBB underdog vs. the money line (BUTLER) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 4-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indiana to cover
|12-14-18||Thunder v. Nuggets +2||98-109||Win||100||16 h 51 m||Show|
Denver is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs the Thunder and beat them SU the last time they met in Oklahoma City back on Nov 28 this season winning 105-98 as 6 point rod dogs.and according to my matchup power rankings are still the superior side when comparing system vs system output projections. I know the Thunder who are currently playing top tier hoops will be out to revenge that loss, but it must be noted that OKLAHOMA CITY is just 9-21 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons and is 6-18 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season, which was the case last time out, in a 105-99 win vs Memphis 3 days ago.
Bottom line here. Is that Denver is well rested and matchup well vs the Thunder. especially considering this will be the Thunders 5 road game in their L/6 outings. Also after a ha rd fought affair and loss on Wednesday night in New Orleans and now playing in the thin air of the Mile High City I wont be surprised if the Thunder run out of gas as this tilt moves into the 2nd half. Advantage Denver.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 42-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover
|12-14-18||Warriors v. Kings +8.5||130-125||Win||100||16 h 33 m||Show|
Golden State after the tremendous success they have had over the last few seasons, are not playing with alot of intensity of late and are showing signs of complacency. That was evident when the Raptors came into Oakland and clobbered the defending champions by a 113-93 count this past Wednesday night. Now the sometimes lethargic looking champs go into Sacramento to play a young high energy Kings team playing inspired hoops and is up trending. The Kings on most nights are handful to handle, and nothing Im betting changes tonight. So if Golden State does get the win Im betting it will not come easily making getting points here with the home dog golden in my opinion. Note: Golden State held off Sacramento 117-116 at home on Nov. 24. A rinse and repeat situation looks to be a high probability event again.
Warriors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Warriors are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-25 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.Kings are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
SACRAMENTO is 16-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
NBA home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous gamePlay on the Sacramento Kings to cover are 51-14 SU L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Sacramento to cover
|12-14-18||Warriors v. Kings OVER 235.5||130-125||Win||100||6 h 36 m||Show|
Sacramento behind the 3rd ranked pace is feeling confident of late with a run and gun take no prisoners style of play. The last time the Kings had 33 or more fast break points in a previous game, which they did in their last win, they continued to ratchet up their speed and shot taking, as they took part in a 132-112 win vs the Rockets in the followup back on Nov.17. Tonight Im betting they fiercely come right at the Golden State Warriors and the Dubs will have no problems coming right back at a home team ranked 27th in points allowed with some explosive offensive fireworks of their own. This one has the making off a all star like show stopping point fest. Golden State owns the 3rd ranked offense and the 15th ranked D. Over is 9-0 in Kings last 9 vs. Western Conference.Play OVER
|12-14-18||Bucks v. Cavs OVER 218.5||114-102||Loss||-102||10 h 53 m||Show|
Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in offensive output ( 118.1 ppg) and the 4th fastest pace and a defence, that ranks 11th in the league allowing 109.2 ppg. Meanwhile, Cleveland their opponents tonight rank 30th in the league in defensive efficiency (115.8 ppg) and are susceptible to being lit up like a Christmas tree vs a explosive offensive team like the Bucks. With that said, I expect the Milwaukee to do what they do best and that is run and gun, and for the Cavaliers to do what they do best, and that is chase the scoreboard from a negative output perspective. This Im betting results in a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.
MILWAUKEE is 20-9 OVER when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors wit a combined average of 227 ppg going on the board.
|12-14-18||Senators v. Red Wings OVER 6||4-2||Push||0||4 h 2 m||Show|
The Ottawa Senators and the Detroit Red Wings do battle in a division game tonight. The Sens have taken part in some very high scoring division tilts with the combined average of 7.2 gpg scored this season . Meanwhile, Motown has seen an average of 7.1 gpg in their 11 divison games this season . Im expecting more of the same high scoring action in this division tilt.
Ottawa has allowed an average of 4.9 gpg on the road this season, and Im betting that average stays intact tonight, and for them to do enough damage in response, and get us over the total.
OTTAWA is 7-1 OVER in road games against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal this season with a combined average of 8.8 gpg scoredOTTAWA is 9-2 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored.OTTAWA is 10-3 OVER in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season with a combined average with a combined average of 8 gpg.
Play on the OVER
|12-14-18||Pacers +4 v. 76ers||113-101||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
The Pacers are a fine team, big and athletic and probably one of the best in the NBA . Indiana has won five straight, including a 16-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. I know Philadelphia is very talented , despite of some recent down efforts, but from a matchup perspective the Pacers matchup very well against them and must be respected here as underdogs even though they are on the road. With With Victor Oladipo back from a knee injury that sidelined him 11 games, Indiana is back at a full strength and the are according to power rankings the beast of the east. INDIANA is 9-1 ATS in road games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pacers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic.Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pacers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The 76ers are 0-13 ATS and 1-12 SU with rest off a home loss that was tied five-plus times and it is before the All-Star break with the one win coming by just 2 points.
Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover
|12-14-18||Illinois-Chicago +9.5 v. DePaul||70-90||Loss||-101||11 h 8 m||Show|
UIC will play a road game in essentially their own neighbour hood when the Flames travel less than three miles to take on the DePaul Blue Demons .The Flames won as guests at McGrath-Phillips Arena in Lincoln Park on Dec. 14, 2016, 80-75 and must not be underestimated tonight. UIC has already beaten instate rivals Bradley (Nov. 17) and Illinois State (Dec. 5) earlier this season at Credit Union 1 Arena.The Cardinals have not played since Dec. 9 at LSU and will be on fresh legs here and very ready to compete.
IL-CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. IL-CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.IL-CHICAGO is 20-7 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Illinois Chicago to cover
|12-13-18||Clippers v. Spurs UNDER 222.5||87-125||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
The Spurs are currently up trending and have won 3 straight, and are showing increased defensive efforts and efficiency especially In their L/2 games, holding the Suns to 86 points the Jazz to 97 points. Im betting they will continue to play a tougher brand of defense first basketball here tonight against a Clippers team that despite of playing good hoops this season, have scored 99 points or less in 3 of their L/4 outings. Considering both sides current form I expect a lower scoring game than the lines makers are estimating.Under is 7-2 in Spurs last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (/SPURS /LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 40-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 32-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80%conversion rate for bettors.
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54||29-28||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
Game time temp is expected be a frigid 39 degrees this Thursday night in KC with moderate wind that will go across the field and could easily effect the fluidity of this game. The visiting Chargers Im betting will very vigilant and conservative in their approach vs an explosive KC team here this Thursday night. QUOTE: "I think our guys have to be in tune for (big plays)," Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "Because every play you have to be ready because it could be the one." END QUOTE: The Chargers learned alot about KCs offence in a. 38-28 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season, and will be better prepared this time around Mahomes and company down. Note: Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is well aware of Mahomes' ability. Both of them went to Texas Tech, and Lynn said he had many conversations with former Red Raiders coach Kliff Kingsbury about the 23-year-old. With that said, Im betting we get a much more muted total score than the public might anticipate.
LA CHARGERS is 10-1 UNDER vs. sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.2 ppg going on the board.The Chargers have gone under 8 straight times as a dog off a home game in which they had zero turnovers.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.9 ppg going on the board.
The Chiefs are 0-12 UNDER since 2016 at home off a win in which they outgained their opponent.KANSAS CITY is 9-0 UNDER in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored and is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg.
The Chiefs have gone UNDER 16 straight times as a home favorite after they had at least 3 more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average last game with the combined average score of 35.2 ppg scored, the highest combined score clicked in at 53, and the lowest at 16 points.
NFL Road teams against the total (LA CHARGERS) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorites are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-13-18||Oilers v. Jets UNDER 6||4-5||Loss||-100||11 h 26 m||Show|
Both these teams have notable offensive weapons, but both Edmonton and Winnipeg can play a top tier brand of shutdown defence. With both teams knowing the other scoring potential,Im betting on both sides to look for scoring chances in transition, and be methodical in their approach , which will Im betting result in a lower scoring affair. The Jets have allowed an average of 1.8 gpg in their L/5 trips to the rink, and the Oilers have allowed an average of 2.4 gpg over the same span.
Edmonton is off a high scoring game last time out when they won a 6-4 battle vs the Colorado Avalanche , but in the past have focused on tightening up their defence after games like that as is evident by a 9-1 UNDER record after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored this season , with a combined average score of 4.3 gpg scored.
WINNIPEG is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average score of 5.1 gpg going on the board.
NHL Road teams against the total (EDMONTON) - after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 3 goals or more are 29-9 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-13-18||Lakers +5.5 v. Rockets||111-126||Loss||-105||7 h 4 m||Show|
The Lakers (17-10) have won six of seven games and are now fourth in the Western Conference. Their defense, has been particularly strong while up trending, as they have recorded a 101.4 defensive rating , ranked third in the NBA . Tonight Im betting they have a ATS advantage vs a host team ( Houston) that can't find consistency and constantly 2nd guessing themselves and their overall approach. Needless to say the host team is far from being stable at the moment and weak favorites even here on their own home court.
HOUSTON is 8-19 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons
Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Lakers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.
Rockets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. Western Conference.Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
NBARoad underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 33-13 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Lakers
|12-12-18||Heat v. Jazz UNDER 211||84-111||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
Slow starts on offence have been common of late as Utah in back-to-back losses to San Antonio and Oklahoma City averaged just 41.0 first-half points in the two games. Im betting the Jazz who ranked 24th on offence ( 107.2 ppg) have problems consistently putting points on the board tonight again vs a Miami side that currently playing some of their best defence of the season allowing 101.6 ppg in their L/6 overall while holding 3 of those opponents to 100 points or less. ( 5 of those 6 games failed to eclipse the total) The Heat rank 9th in the league defensive efficiency, and own the leagues 22nd ranked offence. These team played a tight 102-100 game earlier this season, and another similar style physical game looks to be tonights agenda.
MIAMI is 13-2 UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of just 193 ppg scored. Miami in their L/23 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 207 ppg go on the board.
NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a close loss by 3 points or less are 75-39 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|12-12-18||LSU +4.5 v. Houston||76-82||Loss||-109||12 h 0 m||Show|
The Tigers are 7-2 after a 91-50 home win over Incarnate Word, while Houston comes in 8-0 after a 63-53 road win over Oklahoma State. The pundits look like their in love with the Cougars, and Im not doubting how good of a team they have, Im just betting this line is bloated and will be bet down by sharp money quickly and Im on board. Note: Houston’s strength of schedule is currently ranked 350th out of 353 teams in Division I.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Play on LSU to cover
|12-12-18||Portland State +16.5 v. BYU||66-85||Loss||-109||9 h 50 m||Show|
Portland State is 4-1 under HC Barret Peery dating back to last season vs West Coast Conference. BYU 7-4 on the season, is a tough place to play, for visiting sides, and I doubt that the Vikings can win out right here, but catching this many points is good value considering my projections make this a 9.5 true value point spread.
PORTLAND ST is 15-6 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.PORTLAND ST is 12-3 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 1-8 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Portland State to cover
|12-12-18||Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 231.5||114-118||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
We have a high total here but it's completely justified. The last time these teams played the Thunder won 122-116 at home on Nov.5th this season, and according to the way both teams systems and players matchup another high scoring affair will be on tonights bayou agenda.This tilt for the Pelicans against Oklahoma City will be New Orleans' eighth game in 15 days. The Pelicans have not had more than one day between games since Nov. 8- and are now on tied legs and will be in no way ready to play D, and with that said, I am betting the tThunder will light them up offensively, but thanks to a group of talented shooters averaging 49% FG at home , the the Birds will keep up in what will be a high scoring game according to my projections. Note: New Orleans home games have seen a combined average of 237.4 ppg scored.
. Note: NEW ORLEANS I in 20 games where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season have seen a combined average 241 ppg go on the board. My estimates are higher than the +105 point plateau that this trend uses, giving us alot of value with a over wager here as associated with those outputs.
|12-12-18||Bucks v. Pacers +2.5||97-113||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
The Pacers, have won four games in a row, and are very ready to take on a very good Milwaukee Bucks team here tonight. The Pacers have been playing well without key cog Oladipo and because of their never say die attitude and very physical athletic team, are never to be discounted . Especially at home where they are 9-4 this season, behind their No.1 ranked defence. Milwaukee took out the Pacers back on Oct 19 and now the host team has revenge on board. Note INDIANA is 11-2 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 29-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 16-64 SU last 22 seasons for go against 80% conversion rate for bettors with the point differential clicking in at 8.9 ppg.
Indiana to cover
|12-11-18||Raptors v. Clippers +4||123-99||Loss||-115||6 h 1 m||Show|
The Raptors enter this game against the Clippers struggling. Even a very good team like the Raptors go through slumps, and Im betting thats what thy are in the midst of right now as they are scoring just 105 points per game, while going 1-3 over their last four trips to the hardwood. With that said, I look for the Clippers to be very competitive here tonight on their own home floor where they have won 9 of their L/11 overall this season.
Clippers are 2-0 SU L/2 as hosts in this series and have won 3 of the L/4 meetings overall.
The Clippers are 10-0 ATS/SU L/11 with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break.
Play on the LA Clippers to cover
|12-11-18||Denver v. Wyoming UNDER 150.5||90-87||Loss||-110||14 h 34 m||Show|
Both these teams style of play and versatility seems to change from game to game depending on their competition. Denver has held 5 teams to under 70 points in 10 games, while Wyoming has held 2 of their last 4 opponents to 66 points or less, Im betting on both teams defences standing tall here today, as my cross reference power rankings and system vs system analysis suggests a total combined score output of around 144.5 , thus according to those projections we have value with an under wager in this spot.
DENVER is 60-31 UNDER versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game are with a combined average of 138.4 ppg scored.DENVER is 13-4 UNDER off a home blowout win by 20 points or more with a. combined average of 133.8 ppg scored.
CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DENVER/WYOMING) - in a game involving two bad teams (20% to 40%), in December games are 36-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-11-18||Suns v. Spurs UNDER 218.5||86-111||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
HC Popovich of the Spurs , has been trying to make sure there has been a balance in the way his team is playing at both ends of the court. He has wanted to see an uptempo attack and concerted defensive effort in transition. Its been a work in progress, but last time out against Utah the Spurs finally played a complete game , winning as underdogs and holding their opponent to just 97 points. That was the Spurs second straight win as pups. With that success, and confidence on their sides, I once again expect for a strong defensive effort here vs a Suns team that has been held under 99 points in 6 of their L/7 overall, thanks in part to top scorer Devon Booker being out. With that said, Im betting the combined score here does not eclipse this number.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog with a combined average of 178.6 ppg scored.
NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 31-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NBA road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-9 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UNDER
|12-11-18||Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets||103-111||Loss||-102||12 h 47 m||Show|
The Rockets are not the same team they have been the last couple of season and have a lot of weaknesses that are becoming obvious. The Rockets defence is ranked 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions (112.2) and their week under the offensive glass ranking 29th in defensive rebounding rate (68.5 percent) and ahead of only the Washington Wizards. The Rockets are playing uninspired ball, and showing very little cohesiveness as a team and as a result have ,lost 7 of their L/9 games. Meanwhile, Portland after an extended slump, have come to life lately with two consecutive wins, and will be primed to continue to jump start themselves here by ending a 4 game road losing streak , which has me recommending we go o take here with the visitors in this spot.
HOUSTON is 7-19 ATS versus teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 5-14 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season. HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons
NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-4 ATS L/5 season for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Portland to cover
|12-11-18||Maple Leafs -125 v. Hurricanes||4-1||Win||100||6 h 18 m||Show|
The Maple Leafs were humbled last time out as they are coming off the 6-3 loss at Boston.Meanwhile, The Hurricanes have been lacking on offensive production despite usually posting more shots than their opponents ."I'm betting the Canes don't have the finishing power to take this tilt vs a side out looking for redemption and revenge on board vs a C around team that beat them last time they played.
TORONTO is 9-2 ATS (revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.TORONTO is 10-1 ATS off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
NHL Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (TORONTO) - after 6 or more consecutive overs, good team (+0.4 or more goals/game diff.) vs an average team (-0.4 to +0.4 goal/game diff.) are 25-2 L/21 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Toronto Maple Leafs to win
|12-11-18||Georgia Southern v. UCF UNDER 147||88-95||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
UCF runs a slow down system which is methodical in nature.UCF owns the 17th-lowest Adjusted Tempo (65.5 possessions per 40 minutes) in the nation.According to my cross reference rankings, this total should be closer to 140 which gives us sufficient value to the under here. Note: UCF is 20-8 UNDER versus good teams like G.Southern - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 123 ppg scored.
GA SOUTHERN is 8-0 UNDER in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 131.2 ppg scored.
CF is 7-0 UNDER after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 126.5 ppg going on the score board.
CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UCF) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season, in December games are 249-162 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|12-11-18||Georgia Southern +12.5 v. UCF||88-95||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
Both these teams have played competitive basketball this season, via two contrasting styles.
The Eagles (5-2 against the spread) shot 38.5% on 3s in their latest win over Mercer last time out. Im always on the quest for hot behind the arc shooting teams when Im looking for a DD cover, and they fit the bill.
According to my line projections this line should be closer to 9 point favourites, and offers us value with the visiting dog.
Play on G.Southern to cover
|12-10-18||Long Beach State v. Pacific UNDER 152||68-74||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
Considering both teams systems and player personnel Im betting this number is slightly bloated to the upside giving us value with an under wager. My number sits at 147.5 which is close to a 2 possession game in the difference making this viable wagering opportunity.
PACIFIC is 15-5 UNDER L/20 in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 21 or more fouls/game with a combined average of 133 ppg scored.
LONG BEACH ST is 17-7 UNDER (+9.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 146.6 ppg scored.
LONG BEACH ST is 11-3 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 146.7 ppg scored.
CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (LONG BEACH ST) - a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season, in December games are 173-119 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-10-18||Long Beach State +6 v. Pacific||68-74||Push||0||11 h 38 m||Show|
LBSU returns a pair of All-Big West honorees from a season ago. Both Yussuf and Booker were Honorable Mention All-Big West selections and are key members on a team that must not be disrespected, despite of their losing record so far this season . I know Pacific has played well of late, and 7-4 this season and boast a solid 5-1 home record, but I have to stick to my power ranking assessments that say this game should be closer to a 3 point line favouring Pacific thus giving us value backing Long Beach State.
Play on Long Beach St to cover
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5||7-21||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
Seattle has been taking part in some back and forth fairly high scoring affairs of late, but Pete Carrol has voiced concern about his D, and especially about the young secondary, and will be concentrating on making sure break downs are kept under control vs the visiting Vikings tonight. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a defence first team, with a methodical hard nosed old school approach , and should once again be ready to bang and grind tonight in a game that I have pegged to stay under the total. The overall assessment comes from my own power rankings system that uses a system vs system projections. Those estimations points to a combined score that hits in the low 40s ,thus giving us value on the offered number.
Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 Monday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.SEATTLE is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average score of 28.8 ppg going on the board.
NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 31-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 48-18 UNDER L/35 seasons 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|12-10-18||Kings -2.5 v. Bulls||108-89||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
The Bulls are a mess and have lost 12 of their L/14 games. Meanwhile, Sacramento had a 3 game winning streak end last time out, losing to a very good Indiana side. Wha tIm betting on here tonight is for Chicago hoops team to continue to struggle in rebuilding mode, and for the Kings to be keen on taking care of business vs a lower tier team. In their last two road games vs sub par competition the Suns and the Cavaliers the Kings came out of those tilts with DD victories and more of the same kind of one sided action looks to be on their agenda tonight .SACRAMENTO is 11-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.
Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover
|12-10-18||Kings +105 v. Red Wings||1-3||Loss||-100||9 h 49 m||Show|
Detroit has taken part in a vicious part of their schedule and are on tired legs.
DETROIT is 7-18 ATS in home games when playing their 4th game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons
Red Wings are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Red Wings are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. Pacific.Red Wings are 4-14 in their last 18 vs. Western Conference.Red Wings are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Red Wings are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.Red Wings are 0-6 in their last 6 Monday games.
NHL Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (DETROIT) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 9-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Meanwhile, the Kings have momentum, and are off a 5-1 win vs Vegas last time out.
Kings are 7-1 in their last 8 Monday games.Kings are 16-7 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Kings are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Play on the LA Kings to win on the moneyline
|12-10-18||Morehead State +13 v. Marshall||64-76||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
Marshall is off a hard fought 75-74 loss to Toledo last time out at home and will now be in a letdown spot here in the followup tilt Note: MARSHALL is 7-18 ATS off a home loss by 3 points or less .
Play on Morehead State to cover
|12-09-18||Devils v. Ducks -113||5-6||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
The Devils have been struggling of late losing 6 of their L/7 despite notching a win last Time out and do not travel well as they are just 5-17 in their last 22 road games.Devils are also 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference and are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Meanwhile, Anaheim despite of a boatload full of injuries are overall performing quite well, despite of a loss last time out Carolina 4-1 that halted a 5 game win streak. Note:Anaheim is 20-7 ATS after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and Im betting they bounce back here tonight.
NEW JERSEY is 4-13 ATS against poor defensive teams 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp this season.
ANAHEIM is 17-4 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
NHL favorite against the money line (ANAHEIM) - after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game against opponent after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game are 52-11 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Anaheim to win on the money line
|12-09-18||Hornets v. Knicks +6||119-107||Loss||-102||10 h 46 m||Show|
The Knicks in their current form don't inspire bettors, but my projections estimate this line to be bloated, making the Hornets fade material in this spot. Also the Hornets are off a hard fought win vs Denver last time out. I watched part of that game and you could tell this Charlotte team was working hard and playing with intensity, which Im betting will have them in a natural letdown situation here today vs a side that not only does not inspire bettors, but their opposition as well.
CHARLOTTE is 11-29 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Knicks are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall in this series and 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 here at home in MSG.
Play NY Knicks to cover
|12-09-18||Jazz -3 v. Spurs||97-110||Loss||-107||10 h 9 m||Show|
Im very surprised at how badly the San Antonio Spurs have performed this season, and how atrocious their defence has been overall. With that said, and from a matchup perspective when factoring in player vs player and system vs system, Utah matches up very well vs their hosts and get my support here based on some long standing strategies I've had success with over the years from a long term perspective. Note: The Jazz set a franchise record with 20 three-pointers made in Monday's win over San Antonio, shooting 60.6 percent (20-33) from beyond the arc on their way to their 34-point win.
I know the Spurs showed some life last time out coming from behind to win 130-122 vs the Lakers, but they exerted a great deal of energy in that game, and could suffer the effects of that hard work here vs a physical Utah Jazz team.Note: The Spurs, haven't won back-to-back games since winning four straight in an eight-day span Oct. 27-Nov. 3 and Im betting they falter here today.
Utah is off a 118-91 win vs Houston last time out.
NBA Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 70-13 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average point differential clicking in at 9.8 pg.
NBA Home underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 15-45 L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Utah to cover
|12-09-18||Nevada v. Grand Canyon +12.5||74-66||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
at Talking Stick Resort Arena - Phoenix, AZ
Nevada (9-0) is off to its best start in school history and is currently 5-0 during a six-game road trip, with 25 days between home games. Thanks to this big time start, they are being made hefty DD chalk in a neutral court environment.But the 5-3 Antelopes, who are coached by Dan Majerle, who spent a good portion of his professional career in the Valley of Sun must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this number and be fairly competitive vs a behemoth side.In two of their losses, Grand Canyon let a late lead slip away against Seton Hall and a slow start saw them lose to Utah despite of not looking out of place and at times dominated that game. Since those two losses, however they have won two straight, defeating LaSalle and Boise State and come in here with momentum.
Play on Grand Canyon to cover
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +6||14-20||Win||100||128 h 23 m||Show|
The Broncos at press time of this recommended investment option are 6-point favorites on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The line was bet up squarely from 3.5 on the opener, by public money, but after the rapid upswing in that movement ,sharp bettors came in with their money on the home underdog and rightly so based on line value alone. Despite of the Broncos current 3-0 run and the Niners dismal back to back blowout losses at the hands of Seattle 43-16 last week and TB the week before 27-9 I still believe that the Niners can bounce back here at home or at least be very competitive. In the 49ers L/2 home efforts before the above mentioned road fiascos they beat up an up-trending Oakland side 34-3 and stayed very close vs a better than advertised NY Giants group 27-23. With that said , Im betting on the disrespected home dog, to stand tall here and get us the cover behind the arm of a improving QB Mullens who has completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns, and has also posted a 91.5 passer rating so far this season and must not be underestimated. I am also betting on a SF side that was ranked 10th vs the run before last Sundays tilt vs the Seahawks to rebound this week, and slow the Broncos key mode of moving the chains running back Phillip Lindsay,
Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 14.Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
Play on the 49ers to cover
|12-09-18||Pelicans -1.5 v. Pistons||116-108||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
The Pelicans and Anthony Davis come into Motown to play a banged up group of Pistons hobbled by injuries. Davis loves to play against the Pistons as is evident by averaging 30.4 points in 10 games against them, his highest career mark against any opponent. Im betting he will flourish again against a team that will have rotational issues with player personal adjustments expected.
DETROIT is 4-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 19-38 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
The Pistons are own a ugly 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS record in this series, including 1-5 SUATS the last six at home.
Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover
|12-09-18||Panthers -1 v. Browns||20-26||Loss||-115||95 h 40 m||Show|
Carolina has lost 4 straight games despite of winning the stats battles in the L/3 tilts and are now .500 on the season and desperately need a win here this week to have hopes of being in the NFL playoff picture. This week I expect the Panthers get what they so desperately want, vs a Cleveland team that despite showing promise, are being out gained -63 YPG during the 2nd half of the season behind a 30th ranked defense . note: HC Ron Rivera is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS career mark during the final four games of the season when coming off a loss . Rivera is also 8-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of CAROLINA.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 5-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Carolina to cover
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||24-27||Win||100||73 h 19 m||Show|
The KC Chiefs are explosive offensively but they have really struggled on D ranking 2nd to last last in the league . Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens own the best defense in the league and a viable enough offence to put a boat load full of points on the board vs this type of porous side. It must also be noted that the Ravens are strong 12-0 ATS L/12 as a underdog on a natural surface when they are playing a team with a better record than them and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs here. Baltimore is also 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Chiefs are fun to watch but they have some short comings, and as public favs look week in this spot. Remember despite of 10-2 this season, 5 wins have come vs dregs like Browns,, Bengals, , Raiders ,Cardinals and 49ers.
Baltimore has won their L/3 visits to KC and get the nod here again.
Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover
|12-09-18||Panthers v. Browns UNDER 47.5||20-26||Win||100||73 h 37 m||Show|
The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The Browns are also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.
Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored.
CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers OVER 50||20-34||Win||100||52 h 22 m||Show|
These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.
GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined (67.3 ppg ) go on the board.
|12-09-18||Saints v. Bucs +10||28-14||Loss||-105||4 h 46 m||Show|
The public is all over the Saints here this week against the lowly Bucs. But it must be noted from a long term historical trends perspective this type of fav bet is not a very good one as NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game , which happened last time out, are just 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that the Saints are just 3-4 in the stats battles in their L/7 and off a ugly loss to Dallas last week, Im betting we a have a public favourite that Im betting won't live up to expectations here on the road this week in TB a place where Drew Brees and company have lost their last two trips.
HC Payton is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Bucks are 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3.
Take the points with the TB Bucs
|12-09-18||VMI +5 v. Chattanooga||65-83||Loss||-108||2 h 14 m||Show|
Coming off a game vs nationally ranked Virginia will have VMI ready to compete here vs a Chattanooga side that they matchup well against in this conference opener.
UT-CHATTANOOGA is 8-18 ATS L/26 in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
UT-CHATTANOOGA is 2-9 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons and is 6-15 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 season.
The Keydets have taken three of the past four matchups including a season sweep last year (70-69 at Chattanooga, 68-65 in Lexington).VMI is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits here.
Play on VMI to cover
|12-08-18||Wolves v. Blazers -2||105-113||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
This game features Western Conference competitors vying for future play off positioning, and Im expecting a hard fought game with home court advantage being the difference maker for the home side Portland. I know the Wolves have played good ball since Jimmy Butler was traded, and that the Blazers have been less than consistent, but after playing some decent ball in their last trip to the hardwood allowing the Suns just 86 points in a victory. I expect the Blazers to use the momentum of that tilt to buoy them into this tilt. Note: PORTLAND is 9-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Portland is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 at home in this series.
NBA Home favorites (PORTLAND) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 87-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Portland to cover
|12-08-18||CS Bakersfield -1 v. Idaho||73-67||Win||100||4 h 27 m||Show|
After racing past UC Merced on Tuesday, Bakersfield will take momentum to MoscowIdaho for Saturday's matchup with the Vandals(3-5) .In a matchup of small schools my projections like Bakersfield 4-4 to cash here. Bakersfield has won four of the last five contests and swept a pair of games last season and get the nod again.Bakersfield to cover
|12-08-18||Lakers v. Grizzlies -2||111-88||Loss||-105||10 h 41 m||Show|
Both these combatants played last night. The Lakers exhausted four starters upward of 36 minutes Friday night in a 133-120 loss at San Antonio that snapped a four-game winning streak, but now will have very little left in the tank tonight to face a physical hardworking Memphis team playing at home. Meanwhile, The Grizzlies, played no one more than 35 minutes and took a 107-103 win at New Orleans. The Grizzlies now have an advantage. Note: MEMPHIS is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 1-8 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. LA LAKERS are 19-34 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons
NBA Underdogs vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning recorder 14-64 SU l/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Underdogs (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 22-553ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Memphis to cover
|12-08-18||Nets v. Knicks UNDER 220.5||112-104||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
The Nets pulled out a 106-105 overtime win over the Eastern Conference-leading Toronto Raptors on Friday night, and will now be on tired legs, and be less than ready to run and gun vs the NY Knicks here tonight. Meanwhile, the Knicks off shooting 39.6 percent shooting from the field in the loss, are a team that is struggling mightily to be consistent offensively. What was horrendous was the Knicks allowed the Celtics to shoot better than 53% in that loss, and now HC Fizdale will demanding his squad play better D, and to be more methodical with their approach. The above combinations Im betting will see this total combined score stay on the low side of the total.
NEW YORK is 18-8 UNDER when playing against a below .500 team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 206.3 ppg scored.BROOKLYN is 28-14 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.6 ppg going on the board.
NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 29-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-08-18||Kings v. Pacers UNDER 222.5||97-107||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
Indiana is a big strong athletic team that bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and are allowing just 97.5 ppg at home this season. On the season they are ranked first in ppg allowed and 2nd in defensive rating. I know the the Kings run and in gun in with reckless abandon, but Indiana has the ability to dictate the pace here especially at home. The Pacers are ranked 26th in pace in the NBA and are methodical in their approach and nothing changes here today.
INDIANA is 9-0 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-5 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.5 pig scored.INDIANA is 12-4 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored.INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game with a combined average of 200.7 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 39-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|12-08-18||Islanders v. Red Wings UNDER 6||3-2||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
New York is struggling offensively.The Islanders in their past five games have only scored eight goals which is not a good omen for them tonight for snapping out of a drought, against a Detroit team, that has allowed 9 of their L/12 opponents to score 3 goals or less and are off playing four explosive teamsB oston, Colorado, Tampa Bay and Toronto. that will have them prepared for this pedestrian Isles attack. Note: DETROIT is 19-9 UNDER in home games when they allow 3 goals over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 24-11 UNDER in home games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or more of shots against over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 gpg scored.
|12-08-18||Rockets v. Mavs +3||104-107||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
Houston rolls in here looking for revenge for a loss they suffered to the Mavericks 128-108 at home last week, and despite of wanting revenge are not showing much of a winning touch or any consistency of late, losing 6 of their L/8 overall. In their current form they look less than viable road chalk. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of a dismal effort in their last trip to the court a 132-106 beat down at the hands of the Pelicans , have shown a historical propensity for a top tier bounce back effort, as is evident by HC Carlisle 10-1 ATS record off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival as the coach of DALLAS. Note: Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - vs. division opponents, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 13-56 L/22 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.
HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons
DALLAS is 10-2 ATS in home games this season.
NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 25-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Dallas to cover
|12-08-18||Illinois-Chicago +11.5 v. Colorado||72-84||Loss||-102||6 h 21 m||Show|
The Flames rank 16th in the NCAA with 93 3-pointers made and 19th with 10.3 3-point field goals per game this season.Nine different players have converted at least one 3-pointer through nine games, and seven have made at least five. This makes them viable cover options thanks to their downtown abilities to cover vs the back door and put points on the board in bunches. IL-CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.COLORADO is 4-19 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Illinois Chicago to cover
|12-08-18||Wisconsin v. Marquette -110||69-74||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
These teams Wisconsin and Marquette will meet for the 125th time Saturday afternoon in Milwaukee.
Wisconsin (8-1, 2-0 Big Ten), ranked No. 12 coming into the game, but Im betting will have their hands full with this strong looking Marquette group.
Wisconsin plays a methodical type of basketball, and are not built to run and gun , and since I expect Marquette to bomb from the land of the trey constantly here this afternoon, the Badgers will be in trouble.Also aside from Happ Wisconsins rebounding is average at best and that always is a problem, vs a Marquette team playing tough in the paint and surprisingly playing good D, which has not been the case over the last couple of seasons. Right now Maquette looks very balanced , and Im backing them here. Home court advantage has not been a real advantage lately with the road team winning the last 4 meetings, but today Im betting that changes.
MARQUETTE is 8-0 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
CBB- A home team (MARQUETTE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 39% or less on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 75-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Marquette to cover
|12-08-18||Tulane +2 v. South Alabama||60-81||Loss||-105||8 h 36 m||Show|
The South Alabama Jaguars enter Saturday's game with losses in three of their last four, including a 71-60 setback at the University of New Orleans on Wednesday night and are looking very inconsistent so far this season. The Jags area team that is lead by one man band Kory Holden who has back to back 40 point games. Im betting the Tulane Green Wave who currently lead all American Athletic Conference teams in 3-point field goal percentage, converting at a 37.5 percent clip to bomb there way to a win from downtown here this afternoon vs what can be best described as a one man team.
Play on Tulane to cover
|12-08-18||Houston v. Oklahoma State OVER 138||63-53||Loss||-115||7 h 60 m||Show|
You have to be able to put points up on the board to beat Oklahoma State, no matter how good a defence you might think you have. Yes, Houston can play lock down D, but they can also run and gun when prompted which is what Im betting they will be forced into here today.
CBB Home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (HOUSTON/OKLAHOMA ST) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 85-42 OVER L/21 seasons for a 66%conversion rate for bettors.
|12-08-18||UC Davis v. Eastern Washington UNDER 70||29-34||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
Eastern Washington hosts UC Davis on Saturday with a spot in the FCS Playoffs semifinals.These two teams met less than a month ago in a game that saw Eastern emerge with a 59-20 victory. So now theirs an inclination for public bettors to look at the over here as viable wager. In my usual contrarian fashion, I think this total is bloated and that we have value wth an under wager here according to my projections even though both these teams have prolific offensive attacks. I do expect to see a lot more from the ground game from UC Davis in this rematch as they try to slow E.Washington down. On paper it looks like a shootout, but from a strategy perspective a more muted methodical and targeted effort from both sides won't come as a surprise.
|12-08-18||Tennessee-Martin v. East Tennessee State -14||62-80||Win||100||4 h 30 m||Show|
TENN-MARTIN is 9-24 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game losing by more than 20 points per game. My projections agree with this long term trend. E TENN ST is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games this season with a average point differential of 18.2 ppg.
Play on ETSU to cover
|12-08-18||Navy v. Army UNDER 41.5||10-17||Win||100||140 h 10 m||Show|
When Military Football Academies get together to play (Air Force, Navy, Army), points and offence are always lacking in what almost always results in a low scoring game . Its usually a war in the trenches, in what is a take no prisoners physical confrontation. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE Im betting is on todays agenda. The UNDER is 32-8-1 for a 80% conversion rate since 2006.