|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-15-19||Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1||77-81||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
The second place Wright State hosts the first place Northern Kentucky Norse to the WSU Nutter Center Friday night.The Raiders, are currently riding a three-game winning streak and have won seven of the last eight. The Raiders are 11-2 overall and 5-1 in league games at home and haven't lost at the Nutter Center since the overtime slip to UIC on Dec. 28. The visiting the Norse won the first meetings between these rivals by a 68-64 count at NKU on Jan. 11. In that game and will be primed for revenge. The Raiders won both meetings last year, 69-67 at home, and 84-81 at Northern.
WRIGHT ST is 11-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Nagy is 25-8 ATS in home games in February games in all games he has coached since 1997.
CBB underdog (N KENTUCKY) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5) are 37-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Wright State to cover
|02-15-19||Marist +3.5 v. Quinnipiac||63-61||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
Marist has four of the MAAC's top 12 in three-point %: Isaiah Lamb (5th, .421); David Knudsen (7th, .413); Ryan Funk (11th, .390); and Aleksandar Dozic (12th, .385 and can hang with Quinnipac MAAC leading 3 point totals (10.3 per game)
CBB A favorite (QUINNIPIAC) - off an upset win as an underdog, on Friday nights are 46-80 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.
Marist to cover
|02-15-19||Brown v. Cornell||66-70||Loss||-109||11 h 14 m||Show|
Brown is a team that must be respected when they have revenge on board behind 5-returning-starters in their lineup.Brown ranks second in the Ivy League in scoring offense (75.1 ppg), scoring defense (68.9 ppg) and field goal defense (.414), while leading the league in 3-point FG defense (.301).Last season this group took a couple of losses vs Cornell and will now be out get some payback, Meanwhile, the Big Red, are 3-9 SU this season vs winning teams like Brown of late and in the past have been a bankroll draining 8-23 ATS in this series .
Play on Brown to cover
|02-15-19||Fairfield v. Canisius -3.5||68-72||Win||100||6 h 0 m||Show|
After winning a pair of road games last weekend at Rider and Saint Peter's, the GoldenGriffins return home this weekend for a pair of MAAC games on well rested legs. The Griffs beat Fairfield 73-68 earlier this season, and matchup well against them and have the edge here at home in the rematch.
FAIRFIELD is 1-8 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.
CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (FAIRFIELD) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 4-58 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11 ppg.
Play on Canisius to cover
|02-14-19||BYU v. San Diego -3||88-82||Loss||-113||12 h 24 m||Show|
San Diego is a solid team with 4 returning starters back from last season, and have shown flashes of brilliance this season. With revenge on board for a being knocked out of their conference tourney vs BYU last season they will come here primed to give back some payback.
The Cougars are a god awful 2-8 ATS in away games from Provo this season. BYU is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.BYU is 1-11 ATS in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.
San Diego to cover
|02-14-19||Northern Arizona v. Portland State UNDER 151||94-103||Loss||-110||6 h 55 m||Show|
Portland State has revenge on board for a 82-75 loss back in January to Northern Arizona . In the past PORTLAND ST is 7-1 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average score of with a combined average of 145.5 ppg. PORTLAND ST is 11-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5.
Under is 5-1 in Lumberjacks last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 Thursday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 vs. Big Sky.Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 overall.Under is 8-3 in Vikings last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 9-4 in Vikings last 13 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Portland St..Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
|02-14-19||Thunder v. Pelicans +5||122-131||Win||100||12 h 9 m||Show|
The Pelicans looked horrendous in a ugly effort vs Oralndo last time out, as the team as a whole stunk out the place as they showed their displeasure in having tp play alongside super star Anthony Davis , a ego that isn't really interested in being a part of this group. Davis himeslef had the second-lowest point total of his seven-year career in games in which he has played 20 or more minutes. He had two points in 20 minutes against Toronto as a rookie.Davis had just three points on 1-of-9 shooting and in 24 minutes of the Pelicans nasty 118-88 home loss to Orlando on Tuesday. However, now after being embarrassed I expect Davis will come out here like his hairs on fire and in effort to keep pace with Westbook and company tonight, and for his teammates at least temporarily come to life behind him in an effort to take down a red hot Oklahoma City team. The Pelicans have covered 4 of the L/6 meetings in this series and my choice getting points tonight.
It must be noted that the Pelicans are 12-0 ATS L/12 off a loss in a home game.
Donovan is 8-21 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, second half of the season are 45-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on New Orleans to cover
|02-14-19||Hornets +3.5 v. Magic||89-127||Loss||-105||11 h 46 m||Show|
The Hornets have beaten the Magic 13 times in a row, including six straight at Orlando and Im betting if they lose tonight they won't go down without a fight and actually matchup well vs a Orlando team that despite of playing well at the moment are far from consistent. It must also be noted that the Magic: 1-16 L17 as division home favs and just don't inspire me.The Magic in their two meetings this season vs Charlotte were horrendous from down beyond the arc going a combined 16-for-66 (24.2 percent) and Im betting their inability to pop and stop from downtown vs this Hornets group will be their downfall again. Note: ORLANDO is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The Magic are 0-10 ATS/1-9 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a road game in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals with the only SU win coming by 2 points. The Magic are 0-11 ATS/SU at home with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game.
Play on Charlotte to cover
|02-14-19||Illinois v. Ohio State -8||63-56||Loss||-108||12 h 37 m||Show|
After winning three straight and four of the last five games with a pair of upsets over Top 25 teams Illinois is gaining respect, but the Illini still don't have a true road victory and are 0-6 in visitors role this season. With that said, Im betting Illinois road troubles will continue vs a Ohio State team up trending and on a 3 game win streak, The Buckeyes took the first game in this series this season by 10 points on the road, and are capable of turning the trick again as -8 chalk as hosts.
ILLINOIS is 8-18 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons with the point diff clicking in at -10.2 ppg.
ILLINOIS is 2-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with the average point differential -10.8 ppg.
CBB underdog vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off a close road win by 3 points or less are 0-44 SU L/22 seasons with the average margin loss differential clicking in at -12.2 ppg.
Play on Ohio State to cover
|02-14-19||Hofstra v. College of Charleston -1||99-95||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
A Valentine's Day showdown between the College of Charleston (20-6, 9-4 CAA) and Hofstra (21-4, 11-1) will showcase the Colonial Athletic Association's schedule today.Charleston has rattled off six-straight victories since its mid-January 0-2 road trip to Northeastern and Hofstra and are playing their very best hoops at home as is evident by a 11-1 mark here, as compared to Hofstras 7-4 road record. CofC is 4-2 lifetime when playing at home in the series and get the nod again.
Play on College of Charleston to cover
|02-13-19||Arizona State v. Colorado -1.5||73-77||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
Colorado has big time revenge on board tonight for a ugly 83-61 loss at Tempe last month and will be very motivated to get some payback vs an Arizona State side off an emotional win vs Washington last time out and could easily be in letdown spot. With that said, Im betting a energized group of Buffaloes now playing their best hoops of the season will avenge that previous loss and extend their current 3 game win streak.CU is 7-1 all-time against the Sun Devils in Boulder, including four straight wins.
ARIZONA ST is 5-17 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.Hurley is 11-21 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of ARIZONA ST.
ARIZONA ST is 4-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.COLORADO is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.COLORADO is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.Boyle is 18-4 ATS in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 as the coach of COLORADO.
Play on Colorado to cover
|02-13-19||Kings v. Nuggets -7.5||118-120||Loss||-110||10 h 20 m||Show|
Denver plays its best basketball at home and are 24-4 SU & 20-8 ATS as hosts this season coming into this tilt vs Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Kings while looking very competitive this season do not match up well on the road vs teams that can run and gun with them like Denver can as is evident by the following trend.SACRAMENTO is 1-8 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with the average point differential -14.3 ppg. Also DENVER is 18-8 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with the average differential of +12.1 ppg.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season (Denver beat Miami 103-87 here in the MileHigh City last time out)
The Kings are 0-15 ATS /0-15 SU on the road off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.The Nuggets are 13-0 ATS/ SU as a home favorite off a win after a game with 8+ lead changes and it is before the All-Star break.
Play on Denver Nuggets to cover
|02-13-19||Heat +3 v. Mavs||112-101||Win||100||12 h 43 m||Show|
Miami has been struggling of late , but must not be underestimated in their ability to cover or pull off an upset here vs a Dallas team that is highly inconsistent despite of of the accolades it gets from the media for having a rising star in their lineup , Luka Doncic. With this being both teams last game before the all star break I expect a spirited affair that will see getting points to be a golden proposition.
MIAMI is 21-9 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 31-17 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 16-4 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 31-19 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 19-7 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons and 17-7 ATS on the road in non conference games. Spoelstra is 23-8 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games as the coach of MIAMI.The Heat are 9-0 ATS on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes.
NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 45-19 ATS for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Miami Heat to cover
|02-13-19||Heat v. Mavs UNDER 208||112-101||Loss||-109||10 h 44 m||Show|
Miami enters this game ranked 3rd in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 24th ranked pace and 27th ranked offense. Needless to say the Heat play a methodical brand of hoops that has resulted in some lower scoring affairs. Here on the road in their 5th straight road game, Im betting the pesky Heat gear down once again in turn this into a war in the trenches vs their hosts the Mavericks which will result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect. Note: DALLAS is 23-11 UNDER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 201.7 ppg being scored.
The Heat are 0-23-2 UNDER as a dog with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the average combined score of 189.2 ppg scored.
The Mavericks are 0-18 UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average combined score of 182.2 ppg going on the board.
NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - teams with a offensive output (102 or more PPG) against a team that allows(102 or more PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 34-11 L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|02-13-19||Grizzlies v. Bulls -1.5||110-122||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
The Chicago Bulls will be motivated to avoid a winless home stand vs a side that they matchup well against when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.The Grizzlies will be playing on short rest after losing 108-107 to the visiting San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night and now exhausted and in a letdown spot are susceptible to a down effort vs a Chicago side that went 2-0 against the Grizzlies last season, with both wins coming by single digits. The lines-makers once again expect a close game, but my own projections estimate that the Bulls should be 3 point chalk here at home, which give credence to me backing the Bulls in this spot play. Note: Mike Conley's status for this game is questionable as he suffers with a undisclosed illness.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
The Bulls are 18-0 ATS /16-2 SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break.
NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 105-26 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Chicago to cover
|02-13-19||Syracuse +3 v. NC State||58-73||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
After a fast start to their current campaign that saw them go 13-1 SU NC State with the easiest non conference schedule in the nation has cooled off quite a bit. , losing 6 of their L/9 while covering just twice during that time. Considering the series host is just 2-7-1 ATS I wont be surprised when Boheim and company cover and or pull off the SU upset vs a side that has become very inconsistent. Note: North Carolina State won the first meeting between the teams under new head coach Kevin Keatts, winning 74-70 in the Carrier Dome last year, and now the visitors will have the extra motivation of looking for payback here.
Matchup analysis: North Carolina State full-court defense and transition offense Im betting will have some issues when they push the tempo vs Syracuse methodical 2-3 zone. The Wolfpack can fight for rebounds in the offensive zone, but they are one of ACC’s worst defensive rebounding teams and that's where Im betting they will get in trouble.
Play on Syracuse to cover
|02-13-19||St. Louis v. George Washington UNDER 130||73-58||Loss||-109||11 h 45 m||Show|
St. Louis was blown out last time out vs St.Jospehs 91-61 and now Im betting they get back to playing a more solid brand of defence here this Wednesday night vs a George Washington side that averages 64.2 ppg in offence this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 6-0 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 114.4 ppg.
SAINT LOUIS is 8-1 UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 3 seasons .
784 George Washington /St. Louis UNDER
|02-12-19||Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 226||112-109||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
Despite of an explosive offensive lineup, coach Brett Brown's attention is now on defense and preparing for the playoffs. QUOTE: "All I think about is, 'How do you have a defense that can play in the playoffs?'" he said."Right now, the pace of the game made the game a little bit difficult. I think our defense right now is a B- or C+. We're OK. We turn it up; we turn it down. It needs to be better than it is. It's certainly going to have to be better against the Celtics. But the notion of what's the end game, it's always about the playoffs." END QUOTE: Meanwhile, Boston will come in here without Kyrie Irving, which will curtail their offensive abilities, and will make them more focused on playing top tier basketball in an effort to slow their ferocious opponent. Considering the circumstances, and both teams situations, Im expecting a play off type game here that is alot more physical than many might expect and as a result a much lower scoring game than the linesmakers might also expect.
BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average score of 198.3 ppg . ( They beat the Lakers 143-120 last time out, setting off Brown on his defensive speech above)
|02-12-19||Magic v. Pelicans -4.5||118-88||Loss||-104||8 h 41 m||Show|
Orlando is playing decently and have won their first two games of their current 3 game road trip and 3 in a row, but are still a team that is far from being considered a upper tier team, and not a group that have proven long term consistent upward trajectory status. Meanwhile, their hosts tonight the Pelicans, are off a loss last time out, to the Grizzlies, in a ugly game (99-90), on the 10th of Feb, but should now be well rested and ready to rebound, as they become acclimated to having super star Anthony Davis back in the lineup.
Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
The Magic are 0-16 ATS/SU with rest off a win when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game.
Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.
NBA Road underdogs (ORLANDO) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 19-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover
|02-12-19||St Bonaventure +1.5 v. St. Joe's||76-51||Win||100||6 h 3 m||Show|
Up-trending St. Bonaventure travels to Philadelphia looking for a sweep of this year's series with Saint Joseph's Tuesday night.St. Bonaventure has won its last three Atlantic 10 road games, winning at UMass, Richmond and Duquesne.St. Bonaventure dominated St.Josephs in the first game and led from start to finish by a final score of 73, 47. Now St.Josephs is being made home favs here. While they might want revenge, St.Josephs looks like they don't matchup well vs this current group of Bonnies and in my opinion false favorites. The Bonnies have won the last nine of the last 10 meetings and get the nod again.
.ST BONAVENTURE is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons
CBB underdog (ST BONAVENTURE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse are 62-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on St.Bonaventure to cover
|02-12-19||Purdue v. Maryland||56-70||Loss||-109||11 h 33 m||Show|
Purdue currently on a 8 game win streak held Maryland to 28.6 percent shooting in second half of 62-60 win on Dec. 6. That matchup showed me how well the Boilermakers matchup against Maryland and gives me credence backing them to win and cover here tonight on the road in the rematch . Also since that victory All of the data shows 12th-ranked Purdue is a different team than when its Dec. 6 win over Maryland and could be even more ferocious this time around. Purdue has won the last 5 meetings in this series.
Note: Maryland has not scored more than 70 points in over a month which is not a good omen vs a Purdue side that is ranked fourth nationally in offensive efficiency.
Maryland is ranked last in the Big 10 in turnover diff.
Purdue has won three straight Big Ten road games by a combined 25 points.
PURDUE is 11-3 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 3 seasons.( Maryland is ranked No.1 in Big 10 rebounding margin at 8.9 pg)
Play on Purdue to cover
|02-11-19||Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1 v. Alabama A&M||69-60||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
Both these teams are struggling but according to my power rankings and system vs system data, the visitors are actually the superior team on a short line. My personal line for this game makes the wrong team the favorite in this spot play.
Play on Arkansas Pine Bluff to cover
|02-11-19||Bucks v. Bulls +10.5||112-99||Loss||-105||10 h 19 m||Show|
Milwaukee's star player Giannis Antetokounmpo is suffering with some knee pain, and despite of being expected to play tonight is less than 100%. The last time out the Bucks struggled in a home loss to the Orlando Magic and blamed it on tired legs. Well Im sure that was true, but another truth is that the Bucks have come at opponents relentlessly this season and are not pacing themselves and I wont be surprised if that comes back to haunt them again tonight.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Bulls are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after scoring 90 points or less are just 7-26 L/5seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover
|02-11-19||Mavs v. Rockets -10||104-120||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
The Mavs are exhausted after a tenacious come from behind win vs Portland last night which is not a good omen vs a Houston side hell bent on revenge for a earlier loss to the Mavericks this season. It must be noted that the Mavericks have lost 10 straight games when playing without rest against same-season avenging side and are just 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS as a road dog without rest after facing the Blazers. With that said, a combination and exhaustion and revenge will be the key us getting the cover here laying DDs.
Play on the Houston Rockets to cover
|02-11-19||Knicks v. Cavs OVER 210.5||104-107||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
With Kevin Love back from injury and Brandon Knight now in the Cleveland lineup theirs alot more offensive firepower on the floor for the Cavs and Im betting that will show here tonight against the Knicks on the scoreboard. The Knicks also have a little more fire power with DeAndre Jordan now here after being traded and the top tier play of the young Mitchell who is averaging 13 ppg via 76.2 % shooting conversion rate in just 20.3 minutes over his last three games. With the Knicks desperate to end a 16 game losing streak, Im betting they come out here spitting bullets, and Im betting Cleveland reciprocates with some offensive fire works of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this number which isn't reflective of the current rosters.
Fizdale is 23-9 OVER in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a home loss, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 48-16 OVER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the OVER
|02-11-19||Virginia v. North Carolina +2||69-61||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
Roy Williams North Carolina's owns an explosive offence that can hang with Virginias offence and also give hem issues defensively, much like Duke proved last Saturday when they took out Cavs in front of their own fans. Here on the road, vs the Tar Heels, an emotionally spent Cavaliers will once again find themselves in trouble in a very unfriendly atmosphere. Add to that the Tar Heels have revenge on board for a 71-63 loss to Virginia in the 2018 ACC Championship game and Im betting you have a recipe for the Cavs suffering their second consecutive loss.
Home team is 10--1 ATS L/11 meetings in this series.
N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons and is 10-1 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
NC is 18-1 SU as a host i in this series when they own a win percentage of .666 or greater.
N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Play North Carolina to cover
|02-10-19||Heat +14.5 v. Warriors||118-120||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
Im betting on Miami hanging tough here vs this explosive Golden State team, based on my power ranking projections. There is value on this underdog line and we must always follow long term edges, win or lose. Look for Hassan WhiteSide who has recorded a double-double in each of the last four games and is shooting 67.3 percent from the floor in these tilts to be a key factor here tonight in making this alot more physical than the Warriors would like.
MIAMI is 32-17 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 16-5 ATS in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. HC Spoelstra is 41-25 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game as the coach of MIAMI.
The Heat are 14-1-1 ATS L/16 as a dog with less than two days rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Warriors are 1-13-1 ATS at home off a win as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Warriors are 0-9-1 ATSL/10 as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.
Play on Miami to cover
|02-10-19||Stanford v. Oregon -6||46-69||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
Stanford currently on a three game win streak earned a 35-point win (96-61) at Maples Pavilion in the lone meeting last season and you can bet Altman and company have had this game circled on their calendars for a while and will be prepared to return the favour in front of their own fans . Im betting Oregon winners of 3 of their L/4 overall get their revenge and cover according to my own projections that suggest the Ducks are being under valued as favs. My line is -8 points favouring Oregon on their own home floor.
Under coach Dana Altman, Oregon has a 52-21 record (.712) during the second half of Pac-12 play.
STANFORD is 0-6 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.OREGON is 10-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Oregon to cover
|02-10-19||Magic v. Hawks UNDER 224||124-108||Loss||-119||11 h 48 m||Show|
These teams both played last night and this will be the Hawks 4th game in 5 nights, and the Magics 4th game in 6 nights. Needless to say both sides should show some factors of fatigue here this evening, and will not be ready to run and gun. This Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect.
ATLANTA is 19-6 UNDER L/25 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite with the combined average score of 205 ppg scored. ( Orlando beat Atlanta on Jan 21 this season)
The Hawks are 0-16 UNDER L/16 with no rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored.The Magic are 0-11-1 L/12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws and it is before the All-Star break with a. combined average of 198.1 ppg scored.
|02-10-19||Northwestern +10.5 v. Iowa||79-80||Win||100||1 h 18 m||Show|
Northwestern enters this game having limited opponents to shooting just 29.1 percent from beyond the arc this season, the best mark in the conference and 12th best nationally. Iowa their Big 10 hosts tonight have made 37.3% of their three-point attempts and has attempted the fourth-most threes in the conference. This Im betting will be key to Northwestern staying close vs Hawkeyes' big town town game.
My own projections estimate that Northwestern will score 67+ points or more, whihc sets up well for us covering, as NORTHWESTERN is 9-1 ATS in road games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
CBB underdog (NORTHWESTERN) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse are 61-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Northwestern to cover
|02-10-19||Lakers +7 v. 76ers||120-143||Loss||-100||6 h 38 m||Show|
The Lakers looked good in a win vs the Boston Celtics 3 days ago as underdogs, and now with some momentum on their sides, Im betting Philadelphia will have to play hard to take the Lakers out here , especially if key player Joel Embiid does not play because of illness. Thus getting points here with the Lakers is a viable opportunity to cash a ticket. Add to that the Lakers have revenge on board for a loss they suffered in LA 121-105, and we have a nice revenge situation to bet into.
The Lakers are 12-0 ATS L/12 off a game as a dog in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws and are are 11-0 ATS on the road with rest off a win as a road dog after scoring 15+ points more than Vegas projected.
The Seventysixers are 1-14 ATS L/15 with less than two days rest off a home game in which they had more than 10 refereed turnovers.
LA LAKERS are 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season
LA LAKERS are 15-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. PHILADELPHIA is 11-20 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 free or less throws/game this season.PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.
Underdogs (LA LAKERS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 153-95 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.
Lakers to cover
|02-10-19||Maryland-Baltimore County -2 v. Maine||67-66||Loss||-109||4 h 30 m||Show|
The UMBC (14-10, 6-3 America East) looks for its third consecutive road win in America East when they go against the inconsistent Maine Black Bears (5-19, 3-6) this Sunday. UMBC had a 5 game losing streak come to end last time out, but will be very ready to rebound here today, behind a solid D, that leads the league in scoring defense at 63.3 points per game.UMBC has won nine consecutive games in the series and are 5-0 at Maine since the 2014 season and get the nod again.
Maryland Baltimore to cover
|02-09-19||Washington v. Arizona State -1||63-75||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
I know the Sun Devils might not look like a viable choice for public bettors to beat a team on 12 game win streak. But it must be noted that Arizona State is one of the few teams that can handle a 2-3 zone defense like Washington owns. Also the Huskies after a hard fought win vs Arizona last time out on the road will now have a hard time rising to the occasion again, and may actually be emotionally drained against a reved up team ready to play hard and garner an upset. ASU tenacious ball snatching work will go a long way to them getting us the win here. The Sun Devils are the Pac-12 leader in rebounding margin (+6.6), has outrebounded 18 of 22 opponents this year.
ARIZONA ST is 7-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more ) over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Arizona State to cover
|02-09-19||Thunder v. Rockets -2||117-112||Loss||-107||10 h 33 m||Show|
These two teams are evenly matched according to my power rankings but , home court advantage favours Houston to pull this one out vs the Thunder making it 7 wins in their L/8 tries at home in this series.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 1-10 ATS/SU with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a home game when the line is at least 10 points higher than their last game.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive road wins, on Saturday games are 25-3 L/22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 14-31 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Houston to cover
|02-09-19||Wizards v. Bulls +2.5||134-125||Loss||-110||6 h 42 m||Show|
The Bulls carry the momentum of their impressive effort vs Brooklyn last night notching a 125-106 win. Newly acquired Porter shot 7-for-9 overall and 4-for-5 on 3-pointers, helping the Bulls convert 50.0 percent of their 28 attempts from three point land. Porter got the start alongside Lauri Markkanen in both looked to mesh well together as does Guard Zach LaVine. This group looks to have chemistry and must be respected here as dogs tonight vs a poor travelling Washington team that have lost 21 of 28 road games. The Bulls won 101-92 at Washington in December in the clubs' only previous meeting this season. The win was the Chicago's second straight over Washington and a third straight win is not out of the question tonight.
Washington also won last night in a 119-106 victory vs Cleveland, but are just 1-12 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season and is 0-12 ATS (in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. WASHINGTON is 6-21 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
CHICAGO is 20-9 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The Bulls are 20-3 ATS L/23 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break.The Wizards are 4-23 ATS/SU on the road facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.
NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting 24 . or less free throws/game, poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% . or better on the season are 84-129 over the last 5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Bulls to cover
|02-09-19||Pelicans v. Grizzlies -2.5||90-99||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
There was a vibe around the Pelicans last night against the Minnesota Wolves that was not a positive one despite of team winning. It seems to me , that this group isn't thrilled about having super star Anthony Davis back in the lineup. Yes, they pulled off the victory but , it seemed like their was a real awkward adjustment having the self centered star back in the lineup , knowing that he doesnt want to be there, making them fade material tonight vs a much hungrier Grizzlies team with a more positive vibe after some players were traded .Coach Alvin Gentry didn't play Davis in the final 15-plus minutes even though Minnesota made it a one-possession game several times while Davis sat.
The Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS/SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses and it is before the All-Star break.The Pelicans are 0-8 ATS/SU on the road with no rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home.
NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, on Saturday games are 35-80 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 39-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Memphis to cover
|02-09-19||Hornets v. Hawks +3||129-120||Loss||-110||8 h 59 m||Show|
Two Southeast division rivals to battle tonight in Atalanta. The Hawks are a team that I have as moving upward in my rankings on a consistent basis. Their youth both hinders them and aids them, and must be respected here vs a inconsistent Charlotte team getting points.Atlanta had its two-game winning streak broken on Thursday night by the Toronto Raptors in a 119-101 home loss, but for the first part of that game the Hawks looked like upset possibilities before Toronto put the hammer down.ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Note: Charlotte will be without veteran Tony Parker, who left the Tuesday game against the Los Angeles Clippers with a back injury.
The Hawks are 18-3-1 ATS as a home dog with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game.The Hawks are 12-0 ATS/11-1 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game and it is before the All-Star break.
The Hornets are 0-12 ATS L/12 with more than one day of rest off a loss after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.The Hornets are 2-17 ATS /3-16 SU with rest after they shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts and it is before the All-Star break.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|02-09-19||Sam Houston State +3.5 v. Abilene Christian||90-85||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
The top two teams in the Southland Conference will toe when the first-place Sam Houston State Bearkats travel to second-place Abilene Christian at Moody Coliseum. This promises to be a barn burner but Sam Houston according to my power rankings is the superior teams and viable bet getting points.Sam Houston is currently one of just 10 teams in the country with an unbeaten record within conference play. The Kats 11-game win streak is tied with defending national champion Villanova and Pac 12 leader Washington for the third-longest current win streak in the nation, only trailing No. 1 Tennessee (16 games) and No. 4 Gonzaga (12 games).
Take the points wit Sam Houston to cover
|02-09-19||Duke +1.5 v. Virginia||81-71||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
Almost a month ago both these teams took part in a ferocious battle and now Duke and Virginia are back at it in another Top 5 matchup Saturday.Both teams are tied with North Carolina atop the ACC standings at 8-1 in conference play so this is a key game for them . Virginia is depending way to much on their 3-point shooting , and Duke is the kind of team that can make them take bad threes as was evident when , the Cavaliers went just 3-for-17 (17.6 percent) from deep in the previous meeting.Duke because of their size and strength don't need to pound threes and make a majority of their scores from in close . Virginia Im betting is susceptible to being manhandled in in the paint here tonight and with Tre Jones back from injury the Blue Devils look hard to handle. I know Virginia is on a 27-1 run at home, but I won't be surprised if a 2 is added into the loss column after this final buzzer goes off today.
VIRGINIA is 0-9 ATS L/9 in home games after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games.
Play on Duke to cover
|02-09-19||Spurs v. Jazz UNDER 219.5||105-125||Loss||-107||5 h 14 m||Show|
Defense is the name of the game for Utah and tonight against a run and gun type team like the Spurs Im betting the put the hammer down and play some conservative lockdown D. Over the last 15 games, the Jazz have recorded a solid 105.5 defensive rating -- ranking second among NBA teams. San Antonio beat Utah 110-97 earlier this Eason but UTAH is 27-15 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored.
UTAH is 11-2 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 195.7 pig scored. The Jazz are 0-12 UNDER as a home favorite with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 189.6 ppg scored with none of the combined scores coming even close to this point plateau. The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 192.9 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more of their free throws, second half of the season are 47-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on UNDER
|02-09-19||Florida +11 v. Tennessee||61-73||Loss||-105||7 h 48 m||Show|
The Gators pushed Vols Jan. 12 in Gainesville before falling 78-67 and actually matchup well vs this top ranked team form a empirical power ranking viewpoint.... based on system vs system analysis.
Tennessee has allowed SEC opponents to make at least 10 3-pointers in five of nine league games this season so far. It must be noted that Florida made 12 in the teams’ first meetings, tying Texas A&M for the most 3s the Vols have surrendered to an opponent all season and it will be the Gators 3 point shooting Im betting that will keep them close in this affair and get us the all important cover.
CBB road team (FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 352-240 L/22 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Florida to cover
|02-09-19||Arkansas v. South Carolina -1||65-77||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
South Carolina got hammered by Kentucky last time out and now have to taken a red hot Arkansas side on a 4 game win streak. However, despite of how downtrodden the Gamecocks might seem, they still have beat Mississippi State, Florida and Auburn, with the conference losses coming to Kentucky , LSU, and Tennessee. Now in desperation mode I expect the home team to play big here this afternoon and notch a win vs a side that is surprising me and over rated according to my matchup projections and systems. Note: In SEC home contests this season, Carolina is averaging 80.5 points per game, 44.2 percent from the field and 70.9 percent from the free throw line.
ARKANSAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread. ARKANSAS is 1-8 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons which was a the case in a 69-66 win vs Vanderbilt last time out.
Play on South Carolina to cover
|02-09-19||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State||68-78||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
Cleveland State, has struggled with injuries and illness, but will be primed to seek a measure of revenge against Milwaukee after the Panthers rallied to win the first game of the season between the two teams 83-76 in Milwaukee on Jan. 3. The Phoenix are on a 4 games losing streak, and very much look like a desperate home team can handle, especially behind the incentive of revenge on their sides.
CLEVELAND ST is 7-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Cleveland State to cover
|02-09-19||Kentucky v. Mississippi State +5.5||71-67||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
UK enters this SEC fray vs Mississippi State on a 9-0 SU run and in their last game trounced South Carolina by DDs. The Cats also beat todays hosts the Bulldogs 76-55 at Lexington during that above mentioned win streak and will now have to face a team with revenge on board , as they themselves have a big target on their backs at the moment, because of their torrid top tier play .Note:MSU as a home dog with same-season loss revenge, are 6-0-1 ATS L/7 when the loss was by 14 or more points . Miss State HC Howland is no pushover , and will have his troops ready to stand tall and extend on a 11-1 ATS as home underdog in his career here and are 3-0-1 ATS as a home dog in this series.
This is a huge game for Mississippi State as they are slumping after a hot start, but are now 4-4 in SEC games and are in desperate need of a big win to keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive.
Mississippi State to cover
|02-08-19||Wolves v. Pelicans -6||117-122||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
Anthony Davis is expected to play tonight for the Pelicans after it was learned that he would not be traded and might not be as injured as he thought. With Jeff Teague expected to miss or be at less than 100% if he does play the Wolves now on tired legs after playing last night definitely look to be at a disadvantage. Note: The Timberwolves are 1-23 ATS /0-24 SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game. The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS/SU as a favorite off a win in a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the average margin of victory coming 16.4 ppg.
NBA Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 18-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
This is the final meeting between Minnesota and New Orleans this season. The home team has won each of the previous three meetings and Im betting the home team holds serve again.
Play on New Orleans to cover
|02-08-19||Bucks v. Mavs +8||122-107||Loss||-105||11 h 8 m||Show|
The Bucks are an explosive team , and look like viable threats to Golden States supremacy. But teams like Dallas must not be underestimated when playing at home in front of their own fans. HC Carlisle is top tier coach, and has instilled a never say die attitude into his now talent laden playing personnel. Overall the Mavs have played teams like the Bucks well, as is evident by DALLAS going 7-0 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.DALLAS is also 22-10 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average point diff clicking in at minuscule 0.2 ppg. Carlisle in 265 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DALLAS has seen the average point diff click in at 4.2 ppg.
The Mavericks are 14-0-2 ATS at home after a game with 8+ lead changes which was the case in a 99-93 win vs Charlotte last time out.
Bucks are 1-9-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.Bucks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Dallas has covered 8 straight games overall, and Im betting on another cover here as they add to a 9-1 ATS record as a home underdog this season.
Play on Dallas to cover
|02-08-19||Cavs +10 v. Wizards||106-119||Loss||-105||10 h 29 m||Show|
Washington as this big a favorite against anyone in the NBA just does not sit well with me, even though they are on their own home court vs a struggling lower tier team. The Wizards are just 3-9 ATS L/12 vs a sub .500 team, and have failed to cover 8 of their L/11 vs the NBA Central. Meanwhile, the Cavs are starting to show some upward trajectory from a betting perspective and have covered 4 straight vs NBA eastern foes, and are 5-2 ATS L/7 vs Southeast division opposition. The Cavs are also 4-1 ATS L/5 in their series and the underdog has covered 7 of the L/8 meetings and once again the away pup looks like a viable option a DD line that Im betting is bloated.
The Cavaliers are 10-1 ATS L/11 as a road dog with more than one day of rest when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. The Wizards are 0-12 ATS/1-11 SU with rest off a 10+ loss in a road game and it is before the All-Star break with the one win coming by 3 points.
NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - poor foul drawing team - attempting 24 or less free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or better on the season are a long term profitable bet, going 58-37 ATS L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cleveland to cover
|02-08-19||Knicks +9 v. Pistons||103-120||Loss||-115||10 h 0 m||Show|
Oh boy the Knicks a storied NBA franchise is completely in a disarray and now embarking on a rebuild, but with some stable bodies and minds guiding the way as guards Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews as well as center DeAndre Jordan are inserted into the starting lineup. The Knicks current 14 game losing streak tells a story of a team that had no chemistry and very little will to win. However, thanks to these trades and overall house cleaning, the Knicks Im betting will show some fight here in the 2nd of back to back games vs the Detroit Pistons. ( Motown won the first game in this b2b)
Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Road team is 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series.DETROIT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasonsThe Pistons are 0-15 ATS L/15 as a favorite off a 10+ win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent and it is before the All-Star break.The Pistons are 0-11 ATS L/11 at home with more than one day of rest off a 10+ win as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers.
Play on the NY Knicks to cover
|02-08-19||Cavs v. Wizards OVER 220||106-119||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
Washington usually runs and guns with reckless abandon and tonight against a more conservative Cleveland team nothing will change, thus automatically pushing the Cavalier to up their pace and to run with the Wizards in a gem I have pegged to eclipse this beatable number.
The Wizards are 16-0 OVER L/16 with less than two days rest off a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field which happened in a loss vs the Milwaukee last time out. The average combined score of those 16 tilts clicks in at 231.2 ppg.
WASHINGTON is 14-5 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scored.
Brooks is 16-5 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 231 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they covered the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 95-44 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, on Friday nights are 36-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
|02-08-19||Princeton v. Yale UNDER 139.5||60-74||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
Yale hosts first-place Princeton on Friday in a game I have projected as staying under this offered total.
Yale ranks high in the nation in field goal percentage defense (35th, 40.4 percent). Meanwhile, Princetons key to success this season, has been by playing physical defence and conservative type of transition basketball, that has resulted in most ly low scoring offensive outputs by themselves and their opponents. Princeton has really stepped up their defensive play of late , as is evident by allowing an average of 58.3 ppg in their L/6 games with all of them staying under the total. Today against a viable offensive threat in theBulldogs, Im expecting the visitors to be even more vigilant and will make a concerted effort to turn this into a mud wrestling affair in the trenches. This Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers might expect.
PRINCETON is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season .
YALE is 9-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
Yale/ Princeton UNDER
|02-07-19||San Diego -1 v. Loyola Marymount||65-63||Win||100||14 h 51 m||Show|
The lines makers have made the Toreros short road favs here, and those assessments are correct according to my power rankings. San Diego beat Loyola Marymount 71-58 at home earlier this season in conference play, and matchup well vs the Lions. I know the Lions have been potent at home this season, as their 10-1 record as hosts would indicate, but San Diego has won the last two meetings here at the Gersten Pavilion and are a viable side. It must be noted that San Diego are a well conditioned team that gets stronger as games progress. The Toreros have outscored opponents 932-824 during the second half this season, while shooting 51 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3-point range.
SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons and is 24-11 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
Play on San Diego to cover
|02-07-19||Portland State +8.5 v. Northern Colorado||62-80||Loss||-119||11 h 11 m||Show|
Portland State comes off a narrow loss at Idaho State on Saturday, 69-67. The Vikings had won three straight prior to that, including a win at Weber State last Thursday as they continue to play solid competitive basketball, making them viable road underdogs here in this spot vs Northern Colorado. I know NCU has done well of late and the lines makers respect them, but now their getting a little bit to much respect vs a hardworking opponent .
N COLORADO is 4-17 ATS L/21 after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite .
Play on Portland State to cover
|02-07-19||Washington v. Arizona -1||67-60||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
The Wildcats are in desperation mode after having list 4 of their L/5 overall. Biut tonight according to my power rankings have system they matchup well against and have an edge at where they have won four straight home games against Washington and nine of the past 10 hosting the Huskies.
The Wildcats are 95-5 at home in their last 100 home games, which dates back to the 2012-13 season. Arizona's 92-5 mark at home since the start of the 2013-14 season is tops nationally. Im betting the Wildcats ability to limit mistakes will be key to taking down the visitors tonight.The Wildcats are averaging 11.3 turnovers per game, which is the fewest of any team in the Pac-12. and overall has a turnover margin of +3.8, which leads the Pac-12, and is 15th-best in the country.
CBB team (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 59-19 ATS L5seasons for a 77%conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Arizona to cover
|02-07-19||UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Grand Canyon UNDER 136||72-69||Loss||-110||4 h 10 m||Show|
GCU (14-7, 7-1 WAC) enters the game against UTRGV (12-12, 4-4 WAC) on its best roll of the season. The Lopes have won five games in a row, posted four consecutive double-digit victories and return to an arena where they have a 16-game regular-season home winning streak.GCU is 7-1 in WAC play because of its defense, ranking first in the conference for points allowed per game (60.9) and opponent field goal percentage (40.8) to easily have the top scoring margin (plus-14.9) after playing each team once.I expect they will once again play lock down defence, which will effect the total score to the down side here this evening in a game that I have projected to stay under the set total.
Grand Canyon /UT Rio Grande Valley UNDER
|02-07-19||Arkansas State +5 v. South Alabama||62-70||Loss||-110||2 h 28 m||Show|
The Red Wolves have played four overtime games this season, and despite of a negative record are almost always competitive. There is sharp money all over Arkansas State and Im not blaming my colleagues one bit for taking the points here in a game that have handicapped at closer to 3 points , thus we are getting the value of a one possession game according to my projections.
Play on Arkansas State to cover
|02-07-19||Raptors v. Hawks +9||119-101||Loss||-108||11 h 37 m||Show|
The Raptors are off a big win vs the Philadelphia 76ers last time out in a start to finish victory. That impressive outing, also came at a price as this team exerted alot of energy and will now be emotionally drained, even with a couple days rest, against a young Atlanta team that loves to run and gun.The Hawks are an up trending team that must not be discounted, having gone 12-12 since Dec. 18. and have won two in a row. Note:The Raptors are 1-13 ATS L/14 with rest off a road game.The Raptors are 3-17 ATS with less than two days rest off a win as a road dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers which happened vs the Sixers.
The Hawks are 6-0 ATS /5-1 SU with rest off a win in which their turnovers decreased by at least 10 from the game before.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|02-07-19||Clippers v. Pacers -5.5||92-116||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
The Clippers will be without leading scorer Tobias Harris, key chemistry cog Boban Marjanovic and their top bench player Mike Scott after all three were traded to the Philadelphia 76ers in a deal that was made official Wednesday. Considering their new lineup, Im betting the Clippers will have their hands full with a Pacers team off a 42 point diff beatdown of the LA Lakers last time out and suddenly on a 3 game win streak, after initially looking downtrodden, when their leading scorer Victor Oladipo (knee) was lost for the season. Now feeling confident I expect the Pacers with momentum to come out here and lay down another beatdown on a LA team. I also know that the Clippers are supposed to have Gallinari back in the lineup tonight, but after a long lay off he is rusty, and far from being the kind of player that can carry a team on his back. With that said , its Pacers all the way here.
The Clippers are 1-20-2 ATS on the road with rest off a game as a dog when they lost 4 straight vs current opponent
Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team 104-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indiana to cover
|02-07-19||Wolves v. Magic UNDER 217||112-122||Loss||-102||10 h 53 m||Show|
Minnesota enters this game banged up with Jeff Teague downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs Orlando ( Foot ) [PG] 02/05/2019 - Derrick Rose is "?" Thursday vs Orlando ( Ankle ) [PG] 01/16/2019 - Tyus Jones is out indefinitely ( Ankle ) [SF] 01/03/2019 - Robert Covington is out indefinitely ( Ankle ). Needless to say Im projecting that the Wolves will hav problems scoring tonight, and will be out to play a more conservative survival type of game plan.Orlando is 8th in ppg allowed in the league behind the 25th ranked pace 27th ranked offensive output and have the ability to slow the Wolves down, and limit their scoring output , especially with Teague out. Orlando is also off a run and gun affair last time out vs Oklahoma City (122-132) , on the road and are now on tired legs, as the all star breaks nears and the trade deadline rumours surrounding the team keep them off balance and Im betting directly effects their overall energy levels tonight.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 36-17 in Magic last 53 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-17 in Magic last 53 games following a straight up loss.
The Magic are 0-17-1 UNDER with rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog in which they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average with a combined average of 182.7 ppg scored with no game eclipsing this offered totals number.
|02-07-19||Houston v. UCF +2||77-68||Loss||-108||23 h 49 m||Show|
Houston Cougars have been on a tear this season but tonight against a revenge minded UCF team Im betting they're in trouble. Last season, UCF had their proverbial butts kicked by a 84-56, count in the first round of last year’s AAC tourney by the Cougars and UCF has had this game circled their calendar for a while now. Add to that Houston is off a game with Temple last time out and are in a natural letdown situation and also are in a precarious look ahead situation with Cincinnati on deck.With UCF almost always playing their best hoops at home as is evident by a 36-8 SU record as hosts under HC Dawkins), the Knights look like solid underdogs in this spot.
UCF is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
Play on UCF to cover
|02-07-19||Monmouth v. St. Peter's UNDER 125||53-51||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
When these teams met earlier this season they took part in a very low scoring defensive affair, with a combined 105 points going on the board.
Behind the rim protection of Samuel Idowu, KC Ndefo, and Derrick Woods, Saint Peter's leads the MAAC in blocked shots, rejecting 4.6 shots per game and play a defence first style of basketball that is slow in transition. Through the first five MAAC games, Saint Peter's did not allow an opponent to score more than 63 points in a game (Siena – 60, Monmouth – 61, Fairfield – 60, Marist – 63, Manhattan – 58) and more of th same action is on board for tonight vs a Monmouth side that averages just 63.3 ppg in offence on the road. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE is my call here and a total combined score that fails to eclipse this total.
MONMOUTH is 7-1 UNDER versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.ST PETERS is 6-0 UNDER off 3 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons with. combined average of115 ppg scored.
|02-07-19||Campbell v. High Point -1.5||56-57||Loss||-109||7 h 36 m||Show|
High Point has won seven of the last eight matchups in this series vs Campbell and get the nod again behind a hard core rebound group that leads the Big South Conference and is 12th in the nation with a rebounding margin of +7.8 rebounds per game. This tenacious High point squad have held a rebounding edge in 17 of their last 18 contests. There in close and physical inside style of play has seen the Panthers score 60.0 percent of their points from 2-point FG, the second-highest ratio in the nation. Im betting Tubby Smiths gritty take no prisoners style of hoops will put them in a positive situation here on their own home floor vs Campbell.
Play on High Point to cover
|02-06-19||Rockets -2.5 v. Kings||127-101||Win||100||15 h 34 m||Show|
Houston looks like a viable short favorite here vs a Sacramento Kings team that they matchup well against according to my system vs system analysis charts. Houston has won 3 of their L/4 visits here and gets the nod again.
HOUSTON is 13-4 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The Rockets are 11-0 ATS/SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite after a win in which they never trailed which was the case in Phoenix last time out.The Kings are 2-16 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick after they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average.
Play on the Houston Rockets to cover
|02-06-19||Suns v. Jazz -15||88-116||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
Its not very often lay this much lumber with an NBA game, but the truth is Phoenix is just a bad team, and their banged up and short handed as their best player Devon Booker will be out the the lineup tonight as is forward Dragan Bender (thumb) is day-to-day, while forward T.J. Warren (ankle) is out until the All-Star break. After being humiliated by Houston in a 125-98 loss on Saturday you can bet the Jazz on extended rest will be ready to run here tonight and what Im betting will be an easy win and cover.
PHOENIX is 10-22 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg differential clicking in at around 15 ppg.
The Jazz are 11-0 ATS /SU as a 8+ favorite off a home game after allowing 15+ points more than Vegas projected with all the wins coming by 15 points or more.
Play on Utah to cover ( LATE STEAM)
|02-06-19||Suns v. Jazz UNDER 218||88-116||Win||100||5 h 51 m||Show|
Im projecting that the banged up and short handed Suns will have problems putting points on the road here tonight against a well rested Jazz team. Im betting this disheartened Suns team will play closer attention to defense and just try to get out of here without being to embarrassed by the final score. That will result in a total combined score that stays on the low side of the number. UTAH has gone UNDER in 19 of their L/24 off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more with he combined average score clicking in at 192.7 ppg.
The Suns are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a road 8+ dog off a loss as a home dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. The Suns have only twice score more than 100 points in those 9 games with the average combined output clicking in at 94.6 ppg.
The Jazz are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home with rest off a home game when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals and it is before the All-Star break with the average combined score of 183 ppg going on the board.
NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 33-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|02-06-19||Wisconsin -2 v. Minnesota||56-51||Win||100||13 h 4 m||Show|
Wisconsin has revenge on board for a loss thye suffered to Minnesota about a month ago at home, and will now be hell bent on getting even here. Minnesotas HC Richard Pitino has seen his team go just 1-7 /0-8 ATS L/8 in conference situation vs a avenging side like the Badgers. With that said, Im betting on a Badgers team that is 4-1 SU in conference road games this season to deliver the cash for us tonight.
Wisconsin to cover
|02-06-19||Hornets v. Mavs -5.5||93-99||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
Dallas on 4 days rest behind their revamped line-up that will feature new additions, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee from the New York Knicks (trade) will Im betting will be ready to roll in a big way here tonight vs a Charlotte team on tired legs after playing last night.
The Hornets are 0-7 ATS /SU on the road off a game as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 .
NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 172-111 for a 61% conversion rate over the L/22 seasons.
The Mavericks are 15-0-1 ATS L/15 at home off a road game after a game with 8+ lead changes which happened 4 days ago in their Last outing vs Cleveland.
Play on Dallas to cover
|02-06-19||Nuggets +3.5 v. Nets||130-135||Loss||-110||12 h 55 m||Show|
Both these teams enter this game a little banged up, and are looking forward to the all star break. Both teams have looked good this season, but Denver according to my power rankings is the superior side. It must be noted that his Brooklyn team is suddenly in a funk and on a 3 game losing streak and are pooched and in an emotional letdown spot after tangling with Milwaukee last time out, which makes them susceptible to being possibly upset here right in their own backyard. With that said, Im recommending we take the points with the Nuggets.
The Nets are 0-14-1 ATS /0-15 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field and it is before the All-Star break and are 1-18-1 ATS / 1-19 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field.
The Nuggets are 14-0 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss in which they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter which was the case in a defeat vs Detroit last time out on the road.The Nuggets are 15-0 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field and it is before the All-Star break.
NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - sub par defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 99-147 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Denver Nuggets to cover
|02-06-19||Texas A&M +9 v. Ole Miss||71-75||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
Ole Miss after a quick start to their campaign are coming back down to earth and have lost 4 straight games, and 5 of their L/6 and are wobbly favs at this time. I know Texas A&M do not inspire bettors in their current form, but its not like their incapable of pulling off upsets as was the case vs Alabama and Kansas State already this season . Also after playing against Tennessee last time out this will seem like a proverbial walk in the park for the Aggies. note: A&M owns a 6-2 lead in the all-time series between the schools and has won each of the last three meetings.
TEXAS A&M is 10-2 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Texas A&M to cover
|02-05-19||San Diego State -1.5 v. New Mexico||70-83||Loss||-110||13 h 54 m||Show|
The Aztecs are on a three game win streak and have been victorious in four of their last five tilts (lone loss was a four-point defeat at Fresno State).Since Jan. 15 (includes SDSU's last five games), the Aztecs own a scoring margin of +11.8 which is tied for 24th nationally. My power rankings show them in upward trajectory, while the opposite is true for their hosts New Mexico a team that has lost 6 of their L/7 overall. I know its never easy playing here at the Pit, vs the Lobos, but it must be noted that San Diego State has handed New Mexico seven of its last 42 losses here since the 2006 season.
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS when playing only their 3rd game in a week over the last 2 seasons and is 9-2 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons.
Play on San Diego State to cover
|02-05-19||Raptors v. 76ers -2.5||119-107||Loss||-109||8 h 48 m||Show|
These are two talented teams Toronto and Philadelphia , but Im betting the home court advantage will be the difference maker here tonight. Add to that Raptors star Lowry is less than 100% and questionable and we have enough edge here vs some short chalk to consider this a value call. Note the home team has won the L/5 meetings in this series.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 ATS in home games in February games over the last 3 seasons.
The Seventysixers are 21-1 ATS /SU as a home favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 and won 12 Straight SU all by more than the spread here being asked.The Raptors are 4-18 ATS and 2-19 SU as a road dog with rest off a win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.
NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 172-110 ATS L/22 seasons for a long term 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Philadelphia to cover
|02-05-19||NC State +11 v. North Carolina||96-113||Loss||-105||14 h 43 m||Show|
NC State is off a dismal performance last time out , shooting at a just a 16.7 % clip and converting of just 9 of 54 shots losing a choppy 43-27 affair vs Virginia Tech as chalk. That ugly effort came after they had taken power house Virginia to OT in their previous game. The Wolfpack left everything on the floor in that tilt vs the Cavs, and still lost and were in an emotional letdown sandwich spot vs the Hokies in the followup knowing this game vs their instate rivals North Carolina was on deck. Now rejuvenated and ready to get back to work, Im betting on NC State being a viable underdog in this spot. Note NC State HC Keatts is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse . ( NC State is 15-2 this season when it shoots 30% or better from beyond the arc and 1-4 when it shoots under 30% from down town.)
UNC won the earlier meeting this season between the two programs at PNC Arena, 90-82.
- NC State won last season at Chapel Hill, defeating the Tar Heels 95-91 in overtime
NC STATE is 30-15 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite.
CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (NC STATE) - off an upset loss by 15 or more as a home favorite against opponent off a road win are 42-12 ATS L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind and if we tighten those perimeters and base it on Tuesday nights games the under has cashed 24 of 28 times for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on NC State to cover
|02-05-19||Valparaiso v. Illinois State UNDER 132||69-53||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
Both these teams play defence first basketball systems and both do a minimal amount of damage offensively. Valpo won the most recent meeting 58-56 win at the ARC for Valpo on January 2 and Im betting on another low scoring hard fought affair here in the rematch.
VALPARAISO is 9-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average score of 126 ppg scored.ILLINOIS ST is 16-5 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 126.5 ppg scored.
|02-05-19||Pittsburgh -2 v. Wake Forest||76-78||Loss||-109||11 h 17 m||Show|
Both these teams are on 5 game losing streaks, but Pittsburgh according to my power rankings is the superior team here and deserves respect as short chalk. I know the Panthers have dropped 19 consecutive road contests, including their past 16 ACC road games, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end and thats what Im betting on here tonight in Winston-Salem.
Pittsburgh key advantage will come via their D, as Pitt ranks fifth in the ACC and tied for 20th nationally in field goal percentage defense (.397).The Panthers have held nine opponents below 40 % shooting from the field and here vs a Wake Forest side that has a 39.9% FG conversion rate , the Panthers have a hefty edge on a short line.
WAKE FOREST is 7-21 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and 7-21 ATS as a conference underdog.
PITTSBURGH is 11-1 ATS L/12 in road games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) after 15 or more games. WAKE FOREST is 4-15 ATS versus teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (PITTSBURGH) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (20 to 40%), on Tuesday nights are 44-19 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
|02-05-19||Miami-OH v. Kent State -3.5||67-70||Loss||-110||8 h 60 m||Show|
Kent State is off an impressive never say die 83-80 overtime victory last time out against a desperate Ball State team. The win gave Kent State its second overtime win in its last three games and improved the squad to 7-0 in games decided by five points or fewer. The Flashes have shown their tenaciousness and ability to win in close games, and get the nod again in a tilt vs MIAMI OHIO in a matchup the linesmakers once again expect to be close.
KENT ST is 22-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Kent State to cover
|02-04-19||Spurs -1.5 v. Kings||112-127||Loss||-103||10 h 9 m||Show|
Sacramento is on a 7 game home winning streak, but all good and bad runs must come to end. Tonight Im betting the Kings winning streak comes to an abrupt end vs a Spurs team in top form and off a win Saturday night that has them entering this tilt with the momentum of a five-game winning streak. San Antonio has thrived in the recent past against teams like the Kings. SAN ANTONIO is 18-5 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 20-9 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.Add that the Spurs will be very motivated here as they seek revenge for a loss here back in December. SAN ANTONIO is 20-2 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and is is 16-0 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.
The Kings are 2-19 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range.The Kings are also 3-19 ATS /1-21 SU as a home dog off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.
The Spurs are 16-1 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a home game in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers and it is before the All-Star break.
NBA Home underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 11-37 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate fro bettors.
Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover
|02-04-19||Southern Utah v. Idaho +4||75-64||Loss||-110||14 h 31 m||Show|
Idaho (4-16, 1-8 BSC) is 11-9 all-time against Southern Utah (9-10, 4-6 BSC). Last season, Idaho won both regular season matchups but fell in the Big Sky Tournament. Tonight in revenge mode against a Southern Utah team on a 3 game losing streak, and playing without senior Dwayne Morgan ( 13 ppg) the struggling and desperate Vandals, will be primed to pull off the upset.
Note: Something about the cold month of February as the Vandals have been on a big run in Big Sky play in the month of February since rejoining the conference. In the last four seasons, Idaho has recorded a Big Sky record of 21-9 in February conference games, compared to a 26-25 record outside of February.
CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IDAHO) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses of 5 points or less are 41-16 ATSL/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Idaho to cover
|02-04-19||Pacers v. Pelicans +2||109-107||Push||0||10 h 50 m||Show|
Indiana and New Orleans two teams playing without key players go head to head tonight in the Bayou. Indiana is without Victor Oladipo and New Orleans without the often injured Anthony Davis who is asking to be traded. Both are struggling to an extent without those key cogs, but Im betting the Pelicans have the edge here tonight at home as I really like how this team has played without Davis, staying competitive vs Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs in the last two games and losing by an average of just 5.5 points.Pacers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Pelicans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
New Orleans took both meetings last season and one more winner Im betting is on tonights agenda.
The Pacers are 1-18 ATS/SU L/19 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win after a game with 8+ lead changes which happened vs Miami last time out. The Pacers are 0-13 ATS /SU L/13 on the road with less than two days rest off a road game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break.
NBA Favorites (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 68-117 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.( Indiana upset Miami last time out in Florida)
NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 30-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on New Orleans to cover
|02-04-19||Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 233||137-129||Loss||-109||9 h 10 m||Show|
This is a division game and Im expecting some physical action here , which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are estimating. My own line projects a combined score of closer to 229 which gives us close to a two possession under situation. These teams have a recent history of playing fairly low scoring games with 7 of the L/8 staying under the total with the last game here in Washington back in early January ending with 212 combined points going on the board.
ATLANTA is 26-9 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of 207.7 ppg scored.
NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ATLANTA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.
|02-04-19||Louisville +4 v. Virginia Tech||72-64||Win||100||13 h 48 m||Show|
Louisville is off a loss last time out, but will be primed for a bounce back here this week against a Virginia Tech program that the Cardinals have dominated over the years. Note: The University of Louisville is 14-0 SU in its last 14 games against Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, VTech is off a bizarre game last time out that they won by a 47-24 count vs NC State. They played choppy physical ball in that game, and could easily feel the effects of that tilt here vs a Louisville side that has won 3 of their 4 ACC road games, vs N.Carolina, Gtech, and Wake Forest and lost by just 3 points to Pittsburgh . With that said, my power rankings suggest that the Cardinal matchup very well vs the Techsters and get my backing in this spot. LOUISVILLE is 19-10 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Louisville to cover
|02-03-19||Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 227||129-134||Loss||-119||5 h 47 m||Show|
Two of the top teams in the NBA go head to head here this afternoon in Boston as the Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams can put points up on the board in bunches when need be, but today in a game that could easily played like a post season affair, Im expecting both these heavyweights to be a little more cautious and to be fairly physical. This type of abattle could easily see this combined score stay on the low side of the total /It must be noted that the Celtics own the 3rd best points per game allowed in the NBA, and are ranked just 13th in offensive production behind the 20th ranked pace. Meanwhile Oklahoma City owns the 3rd best defensive efficiency despite of playing at a fast temp behind top tier guard play. As far as the guard play is concerned the Celtics are one of the few teams in the league that can slow Westbrook and company which will also effect this combined score to the low side of the number.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg going on the board and is 10-2 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg going on the board.BOSTON in 18 games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 44-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 24-6 L/5 seasons for a80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UNDER
|02-03-19||New Hampshire +9.5 v. Maine||53-62||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
Bot these teams are well below .500 and struggling overall, but tau I expect a fairly close game between two long time rivals. Maine's 69-68 win last January (2018) at Cross Insurance Center ended the Wildcats' six-game win streak vs. the Black Bears; New Hampshire won the most recent matchup and are now being hefty underdogs here in a game that I have pegged at closer -6 for the home side, thus giving us value on this line with the road underdog.UNH enters the weekend ranked second in the conference with 8.8 3-pointers made per game and take care of the ball well as they commit the second fewest turnovers per game (12.2) and Im betting these two attributes will serve them well here today in what Im betting with be a cover.
Play on New Hampshire to cover
|02-03-19||Georgetown v. Villanova OVER 155||65-77||Loss||-109||3 h 14 m||Show|
The last three meetings in this series, has seen Villanova eclipse the 80 point plateau in point production , and they scored 97 and 88 points in the two most recent meetings vs Gtown. Currently Villanova has scored 80 points for more in 5 straight while Georgetown has scored 83.2 ppg on a average this season, and has allowed 78.1 ppg in a uptempo take no prisoners style of play. The Hoyas have eclipsed the 80 point plateau in 9 of their L/11 and have a couple 100+ outputs.
The Wildcats have dropped in 32 from beyond the arc in their last two games and their hitting on all cylinders and will come at Georgetown on all cylinders here, and Gtown will have no choice but to reciprocate with some fireworks of their own or be blown off the court in a game I have pegged to go over the set total.
VILLANOVA is 11-1 OVER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or better of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 167.7 ppg scored.
GEORGETOWN is 6-0 OVER after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 163 ppg.
CBB Home teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (VILLANOVA) - a top-level team (80% or better) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 93-60 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|02-02-19||76ers -3 v. Kings||108-115||Loss||-109||11 h 17 m||Show|
The lines-makers have valued this line based on a Philadelphia 76ers win vs Golden State last time as road dogs vs a Sacramento team on a 5 game home winning streak. The public and lines makers are expecting a letdown situation, but Im betting this 76ers team has matured enough to be ready to play tonight and could be even more energized by that win and bring some real swagger into this game.
The Kings are 0-17 ATS /SU as a dog with more than one day of rest after a win in which they trailed by double digits.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Philadelphia to cover
|02-02-19||Alabama v. Auburn -9.5||63-84||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
This game has been circled Auburn’s HC Bruce Pearl. calendar for a while, as Alabama smashed the Tigers last years in the SEC tournament by DDs. Pearl was steaming after that game and will come out here ready to get revenge. Meanwhile, Auburn has been money bank at home in this series winning 5 of the L/6 meetings and cashing 18 of their L/22 meetings including 5-0 SU/ATS when favored by 5 or more points if they own .667 or better record.
Play on Auburn to cover
|02-02-19||Tennessee v. Texas A&M +12||93-76||Loss||-104||11 h 37 m||Show|
These two teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and their is no arguing which is the superior side, but where I see a weakness is by how much the Volunteers are being favoured. According to my projections Tennessee should be closer to 8.5 point road chalk, and at 12 points we have some very good value with the home underdog. With that said, Ill take the points here and take a contrarian stance .
Kennedy is 21-10 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games as the coach of TEXAS A&M.
TEXAS A&M is 26-11 ATS in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game.
Texas A&M to cover
|02-02-19||Mavs v. Cavs OVER 209.5||111-98||Loss||-103||8 h 40 m||Show|
Dallas played a low scoring sleeper vs Detroit last time out losing 93-89 and now with a couple odf days rest will primed to rev things up again behind the hot hand of super euro rookie Luka Doncic .That last game saw the Cavs dealing with trade departures to NYK, but now re-engerized knowing they will have guards Tim Hardaway Jr. ( 19.1 ppg), Courtney Lee and Trey Burke (20 ppg) in the lineup I look for a big time effort in this spot vs a Cleveland team off two straight wins and playing with new confidence.
DALLAS in 40 games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season have seen a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling team (25% or less) are 33-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|02-02-19||Pacers v. Heat UNDER 205||95-88||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
Miami enters this game 4th in points per game allowed and 25th in pace and have not scored more than 99 points in 7 of their L/14 games, with 10 of those games staying under the total. The Heat ranked 26h in ppg offensive production . Meanwhile, Indiana enters this game ranked 23rd in pace and 2nd in ppg allowed in the league also struggling to score of late, ranking 22nd in scoring in a clash that has the makings of physical low scoring affair.
NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team ARE 43-18 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 67-37 UNDER L/5 season for a 65% conversion rate on the blind.
|02-02-19||Western Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 158.5||64-85||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
Sometimes when handicapping games we put to much into the current form of both defences and offences, rather than certain matchup situations, such as system vs system analysis and the need by individual teams to be more offensively or defensively aggressive. This matchup features a Central Michigan team the that struggles at both ends of the court, vs a home team that lies to run and gun. these two alternative systems, have proven in the past to be good under wager opportunities using certain criteria. Note: CBB Home teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (C MICHIGAN) - a very good team (+8 or more PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after a win by 6 points or less are 28-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.( Central Michigan is off a hard fought 86-82 win vs E.Michigan last time out, and will be in an a natural letdown situation vs a side that I sure their not inspired by which Im betting results in a tilt with a lot less offensive fireworks the some might expect).
W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in road games vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored.
Hawkins is 10-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of W MICHIGAN with a combined average of 132.4 ppg scored.
|02-02-19||UNLV +12 v. Utah State||65-82||Loss||-109||3 h 1 m||Show|
The public loves the home team ( Utah State) and Im going directly against the vast majority of the ticket holders here and taking a sharp money stance with the under appreciated road dog.
UTAH ST is 15-28 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 season.
CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (UNLV) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 15 points or more are 39-16 ATS L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on UNLV to cover
|02-02-19||Kentucky v. Florida +4||65-54||Loss||-115||7 h 56 m||Show|
After starting the season 1-3 in SEC play, the Gators have won three straight conference games. They beat Georgia 62-52, Texas A&M and then Ole Miss. The Gators have won two straight and four of the last six against Kentucky in Gainesville. Florida won last year’s game 80-67 after spanking the Cats 88-66 in 2017. UK has a history of less than stellar performances here, andIm betting the Gators will make life difficult for them here again. In his fourth season at Florida, HC White is 3-3 against John Calipari and the Cats and knows how to play vs Caliparis system. With that said, take the points.
FLORIDA is 27-11 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots after 15+ games.FLORIDA is 79-52 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.Calipari is 39-56 ATS in road games as the coach of KENTUCKY.
Play on Florida to cover
|02-02-19||Akron +1.5 v. Ohio||65-53||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
If the University of Akron basketball team is to be in a position to make a run for an appearance in March Madness, the Zips will have to start by winning on the road and now today will come here primed to get such a win. The Zips are ranked 18th in the NCAA for scoring defense only allowing 62.8 points per game and Im betting that will be the difference maker here in this MAC event.
Note:The Zips have won 10 of the last 15 meetings in this series and will be in a double revenge mode and ready to snap a two game losing streak vs Ohio.
OHIO U is 3-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and OHIO U is also 0-7 ATS L/7 versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season and 3-10 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.
HC Phillips of Ohio is 2-12 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5 in all games he has coached since 1997.
CBB team (AKRON) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games in are 56-17 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Akron to cover
|02-02-19||Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 128.5||46-56||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
These teams systems will make for a game that Im betting sees this combined score stay on the low side of the Total. I also expect Virginia after allowing 16 steals vs nC State last time out in OT win to get back to basics and what makes them great ( DEFENCE). HC Bennet was not happy with their performance and with North Carolina and Duke on board in the next 10 days this will be a perfect time to practice some shut down D. Miami has problems scoring, and today that situation will be exacerbated . Meanwhile,Miami will Im betting be ultra conservative here in an effort to be competitive which will also contribute to what Im betting will be a successful under wager in this spot.
VIRGINIA is 17-4 UNDER off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 117.7 ppg scored.( Virginia beat NC State in OT last time out)
CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (VIRGINIA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 131-75 L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|02-02-19||Notre Dame +2 v. Boston College||79-73||Win||100||1 h 19 m||Show|
Notre Dame has won 5 straight meetings in this series including the L/2 here at Boston College and have the edge again according to my power rankings.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a home game this season. BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-19 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread
CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (NOTRE DAME) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Notre Dame to cover
|02-02-19||Boston University +9.5 v. Colgate||76-68||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
Looking to carry momentum from Wednesday's 14-point win against in-state rival Holy Cross I look for Boston University to come in here spitting bullets. I know their hosts the Raiders are riding a 12-game home win streak dating back to last season and are a perfect 8-0 this year but thanks to their positive trajectory the lines makers have over value them in this matchup giving us value with the road dog. I knowColgate claimed a 77-56 win at Case Gym back on Jan. 19 vs Boston U, but the Raiders only led, 47-43, at 13:47 in the second half and looked flustered at times.
Play on Boston University to cover
|02-02-19||Kent State v. Ball State -4||83-80||Loss||-107||3 h 59 m||Show|
The Cardinals entered league play 9-4, and opened with a 15-point victory at Toledo. Since then they’ve dropped five of six, with four of those losses coming by six points or less and are now absolutely desperate for a win.
Ball State is a team with multiple weapons, great size, great athleticism. They’re a few plays away from having their (MAC) record flipped and Im betting must be respected here in desperation mode.
Senderoff is 36-51 ATS after playing a game as an underdog as the coach of KENT ST.
CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENT ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games are just 36-69 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Ball State to cover
|02-01-19||Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 133||61-69||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
The Badgers have won three straight games thanks to playing some top tier D, and on the season are yielding just 61.5 points per game . Note:WISCONSIN is 8-1 UNDER in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of 129 ppg going on the board. Im betting more hardcore conservative defensive action will be on the Badgers agenda again tonight against a dangerous Maryland side, that is off allowing just 52 points in a win vs Northwestern last time out. Maryland took a 64-60 win when these teams met earlier this season, and Im betting on more of the same type of action here and a total combined score that will resemble the last altercation between these Big 10 sides.
WISCONSIN is 8-2 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 126.4 ppg scored. WISCONSIN is 26-5 UNDER off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 10-1 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 124.1 ppg scored.WISCONSIN is 7-0 UNDER vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 125.8 ppg scored.
MARYLAND is 10-2 UNDER versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 130.3 ppg scored.
CBB teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MARYLAND) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent after allowing 55 points or less in a win against a conference rival. are 81-41 UNDER L/22 seasons for a67% conversion rate for bettors.
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz UNDER 226||112-128||Loss||-103||8 h 0 m||Show|
Both these teams enter this game knowing that they have to play again tomorrow. Thus I expect both will be out to make sure they don't take part in a run and gun hoops affair. This is Atlantas usually an all out take not prisoners team will now play theur fifth straight road game so their running on empty anyway. Meanwhile, Utah is one of the NBAs top defensive teams, that is off a a rare nasty Defensive performance last time out allowing 132 points to Portland in a DD loss, so they will want to settle things down in a hurry and get their defensive posture back in gear.This is the perfect type of team to get their mojo back against. The L/2 games these teams played last year resulted in low scoring affairs, (with 192 and 194 combined pointed scored an another lower scoring game Im betting will be on tonights agenda. The L/4 meetings here in Salt Lake City have gone under. Note:Under is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 home games.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. NBA Southeast.
UTAH is 13-3 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with he average combined score of those games clicking in at 199.1 ppg. Atlanta took park in a high scoring affair last time out, in a 113-135 loss to Sacramento, in their /15 games in road games after a combined score of 245 points or more they have seen a their combined scores substantially curtailed as is evident by a 213 point combined output average.
|02-01-19||Thunder v. Heat UNDER 220||118-102||Push||0||9 h 15 m||Show|
It's interesting to note that despite of how fast paced the Oklahoma City Thunder have played this season ( 4th in pace), they are a team that ranks 3rd overall in defensive efficiency, and must not be underestimated in their stopping abilities. Meanwhile, Miami is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA, behind the 25th ranked pace and own the 26th ranked offensive output at 105.3 ppg and have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 of their L/8 games. The Heat compete because of their D, and Im betting they will be especially vigilante in this spot vs a side that comes at opponents behind the top tier guard play of Westbrook . With that said, Im betting on Miamis scoring woes to continue, and for Oklahoma City to not be as fluent as usual vs a stingy side that has the ability to both slow the pace, and the Thunders aggressiveness in transition. this Im betting leads to a combined score that stays below this Total.
Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 8-0 in Heat last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. MIAMI is 11-2 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.4 ppg scored.
Thunder have gone under 5 straight times as 10 point or less road favs with 2 days rest and 4-19 UNDER 2/1 rest situation vs non-conference opposition . The Heat have gone under in 5 straight games and are 0-9 UNDER L9 vs the Thunder and 0-6 UNDER as non-conference Home dogs and 4-19 UNDER with a conference game on deck if they prepare to play on back to back days.
|02-01-19||Michigan v. Iowa +4.5||59-74||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
Before I make this recommendation , just let say I consider the Wolverines as one of the top 3 teams in the nation. Tonight however, Iowa will be out their minds looking to make a mark in the Big 10, and at the same time avenge three straight losses in this series , including a 77-71 loss in the opening round of the Big Ten tourney last season. The Hawkeyes are no pushovers and own a 12-4 ATS record at home in this series and have covered 6 of the L/8 overall meetings. With that said look for this 5-returning starter Iowa group to come in to this tilt with a take no prisoners attitude in an attempt to slow down this behemoth opponent and grab what might seem like an impossible victory. Note: Hawkeyes HC Fran McCaffery has covered 20 of his L/30 as a home underdog and must be respected getting points in front of his own alumni.
Play on Iowa to cover
|01-31-19||Gonzaga v. BYU +14.5||93-63||Loss||-110||15 h 46 m||Show|
The Bulldogs are currently first in the WCC standings at 6-0 while the Cougars are tied for second at 5-2.
In all their greatness Im betting Mark Fews Gonzaga will still feel the effects of this strong home venue vs BYU and that they may not find the sledding all that easy vs a hardworking group of Mormon hoops players. BYU is no pushover in front of their own alumni as their 129-9 SU record would indicate when they own a .760 win % or less at home with HC Dave Rose on the sidelines.Rose is also 21-11 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games as the coach of BYU.
According to my line the Bulldogs should only be 10 point favs here on the road, thus giving us value on what Im estimating id a bloated line by close to 2 possessions.
BYU is 15-5 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game since 1997.
Play on BYU. to cover
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