|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-31-19||76ers v. Warriors UNDER 240.5||113-104||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
No body and I mean no body and can beat the Warriors on their own home floor in a run and gun duel and Im betting Philadelphia wont try that here. Yes, there will be plenty of points going on the board here , but the Sixers need their defence to stand tall to compete and Im betting they get down and dirty in attempt to somehow disrupt their opponents flow and downtown shooting circus. This will directly effect what the combined fine score will be. It must be noted that 76ers HC Brown is 14-1 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 198.8 ppg scored and is 12-2 UNDER 12-2 UNDER in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots with a combined average of 206.9 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 44-19 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|01-31-19||Nets +7.5 v. Spurs||114-117||Win||100||12 h 34 m||Show|
The Nets enter this tilt against San Antonio off a 122-117 home win over Chicago that allowed Brooklyn to improve to 11-3 in January,. This Nets team is playing never say die brand of basketball and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover and cash a ticket here for us in Texas tonight. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off a very hard fought 126-124 win over a bottom feeder in Phoenix on Tuesday and overall looked sloppy in that game. Im betting their lack of execution will effect their ability to manhandle or easily defeat the road dog in this spot.
BROOKLYN is 12-1 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NBA team vs the money line (BROOKLYN) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are a perfect 9-0 100% this season.
Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover
|01-31-19||Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors||105-92||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
The Milwaukee Bucks will be trying to win the season series with the Toronto Raptors on Thursday night when they visit Scotiabank Arena. Toronto is well rested with 3 days rest but in the past this has not seen them do well failing to cover 5 straight times.
The Raptors lost the first two meetings before winning 123-116 in Milwaukee on Jan. 5, but Im betting the Bucks are are the slightly better team and will get the cover here this evening. The series visitor is 5-1 ATS L/6.
TORONTO is 9-23 ATS in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots.
Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.
MILWAUKEE is 17-8 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.TORONTO is 13-24 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover
|01-31-19||Mavs v. Pistons -2||89-93||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
Dallas played last night in New York notching a win vs the hapless Knicks and will now be on tired legs and susceptible to getting caught in a letdown spot vs a hungry Detroit team desperate for wins and in revenge mode for a loss they suffered to the Mavs 5 days ago in Dallas (106-101)
NBA Favorites (DETROIT) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a road win are 197-133 L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two sub par defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 7-50 L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Detroit to cover
|01-31-19||Drexel +5.5 v. William & Mary||69-75||Loss||-107||11 h 15 m||Show|
William Mary enters this game struggling and have lost 5 straight games and more importantly have failed to cover all 5 of those negative results. Meanwhile, Drexel has won 3 of their L/5 games and covered 4 of those games, and in their current form offer value on this line getting points. I know WM found a way to beat Drexel earlier this season, but Im betting Dragons come back breathing fire and are competitive here. Note: Drexel won in Williamsburg for the third time in the last four trips, and it must be noted for four years in a row that these teams have split the season series so I won't be surprised if the visitor not only notches a cover but a su victory.
WM & MARY is 2-10 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
WM & MARY is 0-6 ATS in home games in January games over the last 2 seasons and is 1-7 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.
607 Drexel to cover
|01-31-19||Purdue v. Penn State +7||99-90||Loss||-115||10 h 13 m||Show|
Purdue now with a huge target on their backs as they come off a enormous upset win vs Michigan State last time out, will now be in a natural letdown situation vs a viable home underdog in Penn State. I know the Nittany Lions in their current form ( 7 straight losses), do not inspire bettors but, here in the Big 10 the talent levels are fairly comparable , and it should not surprise anyone if Penn State is competitive this evening on their own home court. It must also be noted that Penn State has revenge on board for a Conference tourney loss to Purdue last season and will be extremely motivated to pull off an upset of their own vs a side that is just 3-6 SU on the road this season.
PURDUE is 0-6 ATS in road games versus struggling shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 3 seasons.Painter is 24-37 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games as the coach of PURDUE.
Play on Penn State to cover
|01-30-19||Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 140||51-66||Win||100||15 h 41 m||Show|
My own projections estimate this total to be closer to 134, thus giving us value according to those estimates on a under wager. These teams/programs have played 5 times over the 3 seasons with non of the tilts combined scores eclipsing this number. The combined average score of those games clicks in at 114 ppg, with the lowest combined score at 89 points and the highest scoring game at 131. Both schools hoops programs run essentially the same system options as they did in the above mentioned previous matchups, and when going head to head these kinds of results have a high frequency of repeating themselves within these totals perimeters.
AIR FORCE is 25-6 UNDER L/31 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with a combined average of 117.5 ppg scored.SAN DIEGO ST is 23-7 L/30 UNDER in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 with a combined average of 130.6 ppg scored.
|01-30-19||Grizzlies v. Wolves -5.5||97-99||Loss||-108||10 h 16 m||Show|
The Timberwolves with revenge on board for a ugly 100-87 loss they suffered to the Grizzlies back on Nov 18 at home, will now be in a perfect spot for revenge as they face a team that will be without three players: forward Omri Casspi (knee), guard Garrett Temple (shoulder) and guard Dillon Brooks (toe). Forward JaMychal Green (knee) is questionable and and if he plays will be less than 100%. Memphis is not only short handed , and beat up but exhausted as well as this will be their 8th game in 14 days , which is not a good omen for them covering here tonight. The Grizzlies showed how tired they were last time out vs Denver by blowing a historic 25 point lead and losing 98-95 to Denver. Note: MEMPHIS is 9-21 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. \Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
The Grizzlies 0-10 SU/ATS L/10 as a dog with less than two days rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home and it is before the All-Star break with all the losses coming by 10 points or more.
NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less are 90-46 ATS L22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less are 36-4 SU L/22 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 10.6 ppg.
Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover
|01-30-19||Mavs v. Knicks UNDER 215.5||114-90||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
The NY Knicks are currently employing a more conservative transition based style of D, which has resulted in 4 straight UNDERs, including 5 UNDERs in their L/6 trips to the hardwood and in their L/3 have not scored more than 99 points, while holding their L/3 opponents to 109, 106, 101 points in downward trajectory fashion. NYK know they will face a revenge minded team tonight and will continue Im betting play a conservative brand of basketball in order to take their opponents out of their flow. This Im betting will result in a much lower scoring tilt than the lines makers might expect. DALLAS is 31-19 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. (Dallas lost to the Knicks 118-106 back in Nov at home)
Dallas lost to Toronto 123-120 last time out, in a run and gun affair, and will now be on tired legs after that event.
Under is 9-0 in Mavericks last 9 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-1 in Mavericks last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
The Mavericks are 0-15 L/15 UNDER as a favorite off a home game with a combined average score of 203.5 ppg scored.The Knicks are 0-11 L/11 UNDER at home with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range and it is before the All-Star break with the combined average score of 204.5 ppg scored.
NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 791-615 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 56% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-30-19||Indiana -2 v. Rutgers||58-66||Loss||-110||11 h 9 m||Show|
Indiana is in the worst kind of shape losing 6 straight and have completely gone into a tailspin after a inspired 12-2 start to their campaign.Archie Miller needs this game badly and has enough talent to upend a Rutgers program that despite of a surprising 2 game win streak are still mired in a long term Big 10 slump as the Knights have lost 36 of his 44 Conference games , and have lost 6 straight vs teams with revenge like Indiana ( Hoosiers lost 76-69 in the Conference tourney last season). Rutgers is just 2-10 SU vs avenging conference opposition and 0-4 SUATS at home. I know Indiana is flawed team, but if they an be aggressive offensively tonight form the get go, against a Rutgers team that needs top defensive efforts to get wins the desperate visitors will get a results they badly need. Im betting they do exactly that.
Play on Indiana to cover
|01-29-19||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +10||87-52||Loss||-115||15 h 43 m||Show|
Kentucky is off a hard fought affair with Kanas this past weekend and will now be in a natural letdown spot. going into this road game against Vanderbilt. Thats not a good omen as this UK Hoops program is just 0-4 ATS after battling with the Jayhawks.With Vandy in revenge mode for a 74-67 loss in Lexington earlier this month , Im betting on them being pumped to get even and pull off the upset in front of their own alumni. It must be noted that the Commodores are 7-0 L/7 ATS in this series when playing with same-season revenge and have split this series here in Nashville going 6-6 SU L/12 meetings here.VANDERBILT is 57-36 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game.
Calipari is 9-23 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games in all games he has coached and is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games in all games he has coached since 1997.
Play on Vanderbilt
|01-29-19||Pittsburgh +9 v. Clemson||69-82||Loss||-115||13 h 11 m||Show|
Pittsburgh at 12-8 this season are up trending, and all ready have shown a great deal of progress under the tutelage of former Duke assistant Jeff Capel as was the case earlier this season when they notched wins vs Louisville and Florida State and barley lost to NC State. The Panthers new found ability to play tough man to man D, will aid them here vs a Clemson team that is in an emotional letdown spot after blowing a 5 point lead and losing with under a minute to play last time out vs NC State, thanks to missing four straight charity stripe conversions and four FG attempts. Both these teams need wins, and Im expecting/betting on a spirited effort tonight with the points proving to be golden.
CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
|01-29-19||Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 138.5||69-82||Loss||-117||13 h 44 m||Show|
Pittsburgh plays a real tough brand of man to man defence, and on offence they're not a team that shoots 3s constantly, so putting points on the board in bunches is not their current modus operandi. Clemson does not defend the trey well, which will be a blessing for them here tonight. Meanwhile, Clemson is a side that is struggling to score consistently, and have only breached the 70 point plateau once in their L/6 games and Im betting will struggle to put points on the board again, in a tilt that I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total.
My own projections set this total at 132. Thus giving us value according to my estimates on a under wager.
PITTSBURGH is 9-0 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 127.5 ppg going on the scoreboard and is 6-0 UNDER versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 127 ppg scored and is 19-4 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 131.8 ppg scored.
PITTSBURGH is 13-0 UNDER after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 131 ppg scored in those tilts.
Clemson HC Brownell is 16-5 UNDER L/21 after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog in all games with a combined average of 117.7 ppg scored.
|01-29-19||Pelicans +10.5 v. Rockets||121-116||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
No Anthony Davis in the lineup means there is little or no respect for the Pelicans . That is obvious by the line here in Houston against the Rockets with line being slightly bloated according to my own numbers. Needless to say these Pelicans have a chip on their shoulders, and will use that as a motivating factor here tonight. QUOTE:"We're still not giving up," New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry said. "We're not giving up on our season, if that's what everybody thinks. We've just got to keep plugging away, and some kind of way we're going to get this thing turned around. END QUOTE:
New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 as +8 or more underdog and are 9-0 ATS off a home loss which they suffered last time out to San Antonio.
Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.
NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 6 points or less are 34-9 ATS L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.
Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover
|01-29-19||Thunder v. Magic UNDER 221.5||126-117||Loss||-104||10 h 59 m||Show|
The Magic slowed things down considerably in their two most recent games vs Houston and Washington, scoring 91 and 98 points respectively, in low scoring affairs that saw them allow 103 and 95 points on defence. Today against an explosive Thunder side, I expect more of the same conservative hoops, and prolonged scoring droughts that has become synonymous with Magic basketball.
The Magic are 0-19-1 UNDER with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. None of the games eclipsed this Total.
The Thunder are 0-6-1 UNDER with less than two days rest off a home game in which they shot under 60% from the free throw line with none of the games eclipsing this total.
Donovan L/20 games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 203.3 ppg being scored.
|01-29-19||Bucks -6.5 v. Pistons||115-105||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
The Bucks, off a rare loss last time out, and will be out looking for redemption and a season series sweep vs a Pistons that they matchup very well against as is evident by a 121-98 on New Year's Day beat down. It must be noted that the Bucks have not lost two in a row all season and are 11-0 ATS /SU as a road favorite off a loss with all the wins by 6 points or more. ( the books know this that's why the 6.5 point hook line).Note: DETROIT is 0-8 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with he average point differential clicking in at 8.2 ppg.
Milwaukee has dominated its Central Division opponents this season, posting an 8-1 record and tonight Im betting on another victory and more importantly a cover.
Play on Milwaukee to cover
|01-29-19||Ball State +11.5 v. Buffalo||59-83||Loss||-110||8 h 7 m||Show|
Ball State (11-9, 2-5) has lost five of its last six games, all against conference foes and are now being made DD underdogs here on the road vs a ranked team. However the Cardinal have been very competitive and only once in their L/7 games have they lost by more than 9 points with the average point differential clicking in at 5.7 ppg. I know how explosive Buffalo is but they have a big target on their backs after getting so many early season accolades, and have had endure all efforts by their MAC opponents which has started to wear on them. It must also be noted that the Bulls are off a hard fought battle at Kent State and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot vs a hard working never say die team desperate for wins. This also falls into a long term betting against the public perimeter based trend I use on occasion when it present itself that has returned a 33% ROI since the 2006 season . It does not always win, but more often then not we cash, ( 68%) . Since Im always looking for a long term edge, this situation makes for a viable investment wagering option.
Also CBB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BUFFALO) - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. are just 24-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate.
Play on the Ball State to cover
|01-29-19||Virginia v. NC State +7.5||66-65||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
N.C. State is feeling good about its offense with point guard Markell Johnson back in the lineup after recouping from a back injury and must be respected as home underdogs despite of going against a behemoth opponent in Virginia. Also the Wolfpack's versatility creates issues when vs any defensive game plans, yes even that of the Cavaliers as Six N.C. State players have led the team in scoring this season. Look for N.C States ability to mix and match and provide different looks to make Virginia look somewhat human here in this matchup.
CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VIRGINIA) - off a road blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better). are 16-44 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. ( Virginia destroyed NotreDame last time out by DDs, and have exerted alot of energy in back to back games vs the Irish and previous to that Duke making them possible letdown favs here.
Play on NC State to cover
|01-28-19||Hawks +7 v. Clippers||123-118||Win||100||15 h 50 m||Show|
Atlanta is playing alot better and are a .500 team over their L/18 games and are 6-6 ATS in their L/12 road tilts. Meanwhile, the Clippers, despite of winning 3 of their L/4 games, have looked less then dominating, and have lost 9 of their L/14 home games straight up. From a historical perspective the Hawks have been a viable side to back here covering 16 of their L/25 visits to LALA land and get my support taking points tonight vs a Clippers side on tired legs after playing last night against run and gun Sacramento. Note: The Clippers are 0-10 ATS L/10 at home with no rest .
The Hawks also have revenge on board for a 127-119 loss at home to the Clippers back in late November and lost in their L/visit here last season, by a 108-107 count. Note: The Clippers are 0-11 ATS at home with no rest when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. Also Atlanta is 6-0 ATS away at Western Conference venues as a underdog vs .550 or less opponents when playing with same-season home loss revenge.
Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are good long term bets going 348-248 ATS L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|01-28-19||Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma||77-47||Win||100||12 h 12 m||Show|
Baylor brings a 4-game winning streak into its at Oklahoma. BU is coming off a 73-68 win over Alabama, improving to 5-1 in Big 12/SEC Challenge history.Baylor finished 9-4 in non-conference play, with marquee wins at Arizona, vs. Oregon and vs. Alabama and must not be underestimated in their ability compete here and even pull off a SU upset. Note: Baylor is 32-34 in Big 12 road games since 2012, second-best in the league behind only Kansas (43-23).
OKLAHOMA is 3-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons and is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in January games this season.
Baylor has won 2 straight meetings here and have won 3 of the L/4 meetings SU.BU's last 3 trips to Norman include a 2-point loss in 2016, a 26-point win in 2017 and a 2-point loss in 2018.
Play on Baylor to cover
|01-28-19||Nets +10.5 v. Celtics||104-112||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
The Celtics played a hard fought game vs the Golden State Warriors last time out losing a 115-111 heart breaker. The young men from Boston played their hearts out and left everything on the floor and still fell short. Now in an emotional letdown situation this Beatdown hoops crew will now face the difficult task of going against a hard working Nets team on a 6 game win streak that plays basketball with a never say die attitude. With that said, Im recommending we take the points with the visitors.
The Nets are 22-0-1 ATS and have won 9 straight SU on the road with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range and it is before the All-Star break.The Celtics are 0-7 ATS/SU at home with rest off a game as a dog after a loss in which they made more field goals than their opponent.
BROOKLYN is 22-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BROOKLYN is 35-22 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Brooklyn to cover
|01-28-19||Bethune-Cookman -2.5 v. Coppin State||91-95||Loss||-105||10 h 19 m||Show|
The Bethune Cookman 'Cats lead the MEAC in defensive rebounding average (27.9), rebounding average (40.76), FG defense (40.8%), and 3pt defense (29.5%). BCU is second in rebound margin (+2.7), and offensive boards (12.84) and according to my numbers should be 4.5 point road chalk here thus we are getting a value line here to bet into vs a Coppin State side that they beat both times they met them last season.
Play on Bethune Cookman to cover
|01-28-19||North Carolina Central -2.5 v. Savannah State||82-78||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
I have made this line at -5.5 for North Carolina Central (9-10 overall), thus we are getting old value with the road team according to my projections.NCCU has shot over 50 percent from the floor seven times this season. Meanwhile,Savannah State 4-14 overall is currently 1-3 in MEAC play heading into the weekend, but lead the league in three-pointers made per contest with 11.7 and live and die with their downtown shots, leading the conference in Treys. But tonight against a NCCU team that can light the board up from all over the court Im betting they're in trouble.
Play on North Carolina Central to cover
|01-28-19||Warriors v. Pacers +9||132-100||Loss||-105||12 h 51 m||Show|
The defending champion Golden State Warriors are in a groove and currently hitting on all cylinders. Thanks to over powering 10 game run and wining streak , they are being made 9 point favs here on the opening line, which is bloated in my humble opinion, giving us value on the disrespected home underdog Indiana getting points. Note:Indiana is 18-6 SU at home this season , while Golden State is just 12-13 ATS on the road and are on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road game and are off a hard-fought battle vs the Celtics last time out.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.INDIANA is 17-5 ATS L/22 as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.
NBAHome underdogs (INDIANA) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-13 ATS L/22 season for a 75% conversion rate for bettors .
Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover
|01-27-19||Bucks v. Thunder UNDER 233||112-118||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
My own line of 227 on this tilt is 6 points off of what is being offered thus using my projections Im betting we have value with an under wager here today between two top tier teams. I see this line as pandering to public perceptions and what is obvious high scoring offences. Note: MILWAUKEEs L/45 games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons has seen high scoring games, but the average combined score only clicks in at 226.2 ppg which is right about where a place that total. it must be noted that the Bucks have gone under in 7 of their L/9 games, while playing a top tier brand of defence behind the No1 ranked top rated D efficiency in the league. Yes, Oklahoma City has been shooting the lights out of late, but it must be noted that HC Donovan is 21-8 UNDER after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 207.1 ppg. Oklahoma City also owns the 4th ranked defensive efficiency in the NBA .
.The L/5 meetings have gone under the total.
The Bucks are 0-16-1 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint and it is before the All-Star break with a combined average score of 184.3 ppg scored with none of the games seeing more than 207 combined points scored. The Bucks are also 2-20-1 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with the average combined score of those games at 188.7 ppg with non going higher than 218 combined points.
The Thunder are 3-26 UNDER as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite when they are off two wins as favorites with a combined average of 199 ppg scored and none of the game have seen more than 218 points go on the board.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average score of 218.1 ppg scored and is 8-1 UNDER after a game where they attempted 100 or more shots this season with a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored.
|01-27-19||North Alabama +13 v. NJIT||70-76||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
NJIT will face ASUN newcomers North Alabama for the second time this year.
Take the Points wth North Alabama to cover
|01-27-19||Seton Hall +8.5 v. Villanova||52-80||Loss||-109||6 h 6 m||Show|
Seton Hall after pulling off wins vs Kentucky and Maryland earlier this season, have been suddenly struggling for wins losing 4 of their L/5 despite of being highly competitive with the average point diff of those 4 losses clicking in at 4.5 ppg. Every loss they have suffered this season besides two were within five points, and they lost four by just four points . Villanova is showing us that they are once again a good NCAA tourney bet, and despite of the off season departures, must be respected. However, with that said, Seton Hall is not an easy out, and are desperate for wins and will leave everything on the floor today in what Im betting will be a cover for them and their backers. Look for Myles Powell who is averaging 22.2 points per game, and hitting 45.3% of his shots to be a key catalyst for the Hall here in a cover effort.
SETON HALL is 23-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread and is s 11-3 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 13-4 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.
CBB Home teams as a favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 7-29 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Seton Hall to cover
|01-26-19||San Francisco -2.5 v. San Diego||63-67||Loss||-109||11 h 41 m||Show|
San Francisco at 17-3 are proving they are a side that needs to be respected when laying short lumber. I know San Diego is feisty hard working team, but are outgunned by a team on a 3 game win streak , especially if Olin Carter III is not playing or less than 100% which he is reported as he suffers with a ( Abdominal ) injury. FRANCISCO is 14-3 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival
CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 53-22 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
SF to cover
|01-26-19||Arizona v. UCLA -1||69-90||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
Despite a 3-3 start, the Bruins are not out of the running for the Pac-12 regular season title and have an opportunity to right their ship here tonight vs Arizona. Despite of it not appearing their desperate, this game is a must win type affair especially after their ugly effort vs Arizona State last time out when they lost as chalk. Note: Bartow is 9-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival and 20-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1997.Meanwhile, Arizona despite of their accolades are starting to fall back down to earth, and are fragile looking at the moment after getting clobbered by USC last time out.
ARIZONA is 5-13 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.ARIZONA is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 season
UCLA to cover
|01-26-19||76ers v. Nuggets -9||110-126||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
Denver will go against a 76ers team playing without key cogs Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler tonight. That puts the 76ers at a big disadvantage vs a side that has revenge on board for last seasons 123-104 loss at Philadelphia. I know Denver played last night, in a 132-95 win vs Phoenix but they did not over use any of their players with no one seeing more than 29 minutes of playing time. Their much fresher than the the back to back efforts might indicate and get the nod here as fairly hefty home favs .DENVER is 13-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.
The 76ers are 0-14 ATS/SU as a road dog off a game as a favorite when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 45 rebounds per game and HC Brown is 3-15 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less as the coach of PHILADELPHIA which was the case in a hard fought 122-120 win vs San Antonio last time out.
Play on Denver to cover
|01-26-19||76ers v. Nuggets UNDER 229||110-126||Loss||-110||8 h 13 m||Show|
With Joel Embidd and Jimmy Butler expected not to play tonight for the 76ers Im betting their flow and offensive output will be great curtailed. Instead I expect HC Brown to implement a game plan that focuses on good defensive hoops, and fundamental ball control tactics. That expected strategy I expect will lead to a lower scoring game than the linesmakers might expect between two top tier teams. Note:Brown is 40-22 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored.
The Nuggets are 0-10 UNDER L/10 by more than 15 ppg at home off a 10+ win in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent which was the case last night in their win vs Phoenix.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 41-18 L/22seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UNDER
|01-26-19||Evansville +4.5 v. Northern Iowa||74-81||Loss||-113||11 h 13 m||Show|
Evansville has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to NIU in the MVC tourney last season. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa . is in an emotional letdown situation after a loss last time out . Thats not a good omen for their chances to cover here as Northern Iowa is just 1-4 SUATS in their last 5 games versus opposition with conference revenge. Add to that Evansville has performed admirably as dogs this season going a bankroll expanding 8-3 ATS getting points for their backers , while the Panthers are just 5-10 ATS on the season.
Play on Evansville to cover
|01-26-19||Spurs -2 v. Pelicans||126-114||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
Ill take -3 or less with the Spurs on the road any time its available vs a side like New Orleans that is expected to play without their super star Anthony Davis, even though they themselves will play without DeRozan. I know the Pelicans play a team orientated style of hoops and move the rock around with consistency but the Spurs do well against these types of teams and are 10-0 ATS L/10 going against an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.San Antonio owns a 44-18 all-time mark against the Pelicans and has won 18 of the 31 games between the teams in New Orleans and lost to NO the last time they played here, but it must be noted that SAN ANTONIO is 14-0 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.
NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less are 23-6 ATS L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on San Antonio to cover
|01-26-19||Middle Tennessee +13.5 v. North Texas||53-70||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
My power rankings and line suggests we have value with this line with Middle Tennessee .
MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
N TEXAS is 1-7 ATS in all home games this season.
N TEXAS is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.N TEXAS is 3-11 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Middle Tenn State to cover
|01-26-19||Kansas v. Kentucky -5.5||63-71||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
Kentucky leads the all-time series with Kansas, 22-9, but the Jayhawks are riding a 3-game winning streak , but Im betting that all ends abruptly here today. My personal opinion on Kansas is they are down a notch this season and one shouldn't be fooled by their record, and with Calipari eyeing triple revenge for the Wildcats will have his team ready to perform in a big way here today.KENTUCKY is 14-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) over the last 3 seasons and Calipari is 23-10 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) after 15 or more games as the coach of KENTUCKY.KANSAS is 2-13 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 2 season.
Play on Kentucky to cover
|01-26-19||South Carolina State +1 v. Savannah State||88-92||Loss||-109||8 h 52 m||Show|
In their last outing, the South Carolina State Bulldogs dropped an tough 69-74 decision to Norfolk State.The Bulldogs record may not give bettors hope (4-17, 2-3 MEAC) but this offense is anchored by 6-foot-8 junior Damani Applewhite who averages 17.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game and he's proven he can take advantage of teams like Savannah Statee (4-14, 1-3 MEAC) which gives us an edge on a short line.
Play on South Carolina State to cover
|01-26-19||Washington +2.5 v. Oregon State||79-69||Win||100||6 h 17 m||Show|
Oregon State has been playing some great basketball and are surprising the heck out of the pundits and that's why they are getting so much respect from the lines- makers here today But the Washington Huskies, undefeated in PAC12 play visit Corvallis, looking to avenge a 69-66 defeat to the Beavers in last year’s Pac-12 tourney and wont be used around here by this hard working blue collar group. Note:Hopkins is 6-0 ATS at road when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of WASHINGTON and is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts as the coach of WASHINGTON.
CBB home team (OREGON ST) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better are 19-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington to cover
|01-26-19||Boston College -1.5 v. Wake Forest||65-61||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
Boston College off a nice win vs Florida State last time out will carry the momentum of that win in to Wake Forests a struggling side that has lost 5 of their L/6 games.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons and is 8-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 10-23 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CBB Home teams as an underdog or pick (WAKE FOREST) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.
CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off a home win against a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 92-49 ATS L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Boston College to cover
|01-26-19||South Florida -4 v. East Carolina||77-57||Win||100||5 h 18 m||Show|
E.Carolina has lost 4 straight games, and according to my numbers and projections should be closer to-6.5 point dogs here. South Florida has struggled a bit lately but are still a dangerous foe having covered 14 of their 19line games this season. The struggles Im taking about came to Temple in a 2 point loss and to Houston by 9 and Cincinnati by 8 so needless to say those make the battle tested road team a very viable side to back.
CBB home team (E CAROLINA) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 103-162 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on South Florida to cover
|01-26-19||Marquette v. Xavier +3||87-82||Loss||-110||6 h 26 m||Show|
Marquette is in top form, but Xavier is almost never an easy out on their own home court and must be respected especially when they have revenge on board for a loss as was the case when they suffered a 70- 52 beatdown in Marquette earlier this season on Jan 6. Xavier has five players averaging in double figures in scoring through 20 games and I expect a complete team effort here in a cover performance.
The Musketeers are 5-1 SU vs. Marquette at Cintas Center.
XAVIER is 13-3 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.XAVIER is 47-29 L/76 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent .
Play on Xavier to cover
|01-26-19||Clemson +6.5 v. NC State||67-69||Win||100||6 h 52 m||Show|
The Clemson Tigers just played and lost to Duke and suffered a home defeat against Virginia and are battle tested and will not be intimidated vs NC State today that has lost 3 of their L/5 overall. Im betting on two desperate teams in need of a win to battle it out in a closely contested affair, with the points proving to be golden.
Clemson has won 3 of the L/4 meetings.
NC STATE is 9-19 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
CBB Home teams as a favorite or pick (NC STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season, after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 37-70 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Clemson to cover
|01-26-19||Pittsburgh v. Louisville -10.5||51-66||Win||100||6 h 49 m||Show|
Im a big believer in Chris Mack and Im betting he gets his team NCAA tourney ready in a hurry.Louisville, ranked 23rd by AP and 24th in the USA Today poll, come in here today against a improved but still out talented Pittsburgh team ready to get payback for a 89-86 OT loss earlier this season. Im betting Louisville has an edge, especially with revenge on board for that surprising upset loss vs the Panthers. Note: Louisville is 21-4 SU and 18-6-1 ATS at home in same- season conference revenge Meanwhile, Pittsburgh 1-6 ATS in their last seven tilts versus opposition with same- season conference revenge, and have not performed well vs the Cards going just 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS in this series.
LOUISVILLE is 22-10 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite since 1997 with the average point diff clicking in at 15 ppg.
Louisville's 2019 signing class is ranked second in the nation by ESPN.
Play on Louisville to cover
|01-26-19||Dayton -6.5 v. Fordham||75-52||Win||100||4 h 46 m||Show|
Fordham has lost 7 straight games, and does not matchup well vs the Flyers. Note: Neubauer is 1-8 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games as the coach of FORDHAM and is 4-15 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game as the coach of FORDHAM. This game registers under a long standing system .CBB Road teams against the total (DAYTON) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 710-524 ATS L/22 seasons for a long term 58% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Dayton to cover
|01-26-19||Hofstra -9.5 v. Towson||84-61||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Hofstra is an explosive team, that rarely shows mercy, and are pounding their L/3 opponents by DDs. More of the same here today vs a struggling side that despite of having won their L/2 games are still. sub .500 home team this season.HOFSTRA is 9-2 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.TOWSON ST is 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
CBB home team (TOWSON ST) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 20-46 L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Hofstra to cover
|01-26-19||VCU -3 v. Duquesne||80-74||Win||100||3 h 57 m||Show|
VCU has won the L/6 meetings including the L/3 here on the road between these two hoops programs and according to my matchup stats and power rankings deserve their -3 fav road status here and should win this game according to my projections by 4 points or more.
Their key to success today will be their defence.
VCU opponents are shooting just .264 from beyond the 3-point arc, which ranks fourth nationally. VCU opponents shot .351 from 3-point range last season. VCU has held nine opponents to 60 points or fewer this season
VCU is 77-33 in conference play over that span, a .700 winning percentage. VCU is also 13-5 in A-10 Tournament play.
Play on VCU.
|01-26-19||Illinois +9.5 v. Maryland||78-67||Win||100||4 h 0 m||Show|
at Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
Maryland is the superior team here, but on neutral court, this line Im betting is a little bloated and there is value on contrarian betting perspective. HC Underwood is 15-5 ATS in non home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997. Illinois has either led (eight times), been tied (twice), or trailed by two with the ball (once) during the second half in 11 of its 14 losses and are my choice to cover vs ranked Maryland.
Note:Illinois has played 11 games all-time at Madison Square Garden, compiling a 3-8 SU record with only 3 of the losses coming by more than 9 points.
Play on Illinois to cover
|01-26-19||Illinois v. Maryland UNDER 145.5||78-67||Win||100||1 h 10 m||Show|
This is a Terrapins team that averages 75.6 points per game but is coming off a game in which it tied its lowest offensive output of the season and lost and Im betting their struggles stretch into this game vs a team that will look to down and dirty here in an effort to be competitive.MARYLAND is 9-2 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 135.6 ppg going on the board.
|01-25-19||Hornets v. Bucks OVER 230||99-108||Loss||-108||10 h 34 m||Show|
Milwaukee is the NBAs 2nd most proficient offensive team averaging 117.6 points per game behind the 5th ranked pace. The Bucks do preach a defence first mentality, but tonight against a Charlotte team that has upped their offensive output of late, and looking fluid with their ball movement, Im expecting the Bucks to have to put points on the board in frequent fashion. This Im betting will lead to a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this number.
CHARLOTTE is 15-6 OVER when the total is 220 to 230 this season.The Bucks are 11-0-1 OVER as a 8+ favorite off a home game with a combined average score of 237.4 ppg scored.The Bucks are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a home favorite off a home game when they are off two wins as favorites with a combined average of 237.3 ppg scored.
|01-25-19||Butler v. Creighton -2||61-75||Win||100||13 h 19 m||Show|
Creighton is 11-8 SU overall and 2-4 in BIG EAST play while enduring the nation's ninth-toughest schedule, having already played 12 teams that won 21 games or more a year ago. Meanwhile, Butler is 12-8 this season and 3-4 in BIG EAST play after Tuesday's 80-72 home loss to Villanova. The Bulldogs are 1-4 in true road games. Butler won the first meeting this season between these two hoops programs, 84-69 on January 5 in Indianapolis and now Creighton will be primed to get revenge for that defeat. Creighton is 6-2 all-time in Omaha vs the Bulldogs, including a 4-1 mark since the schools became BIG EAST rivals and gets my support here in revenge mode. Look for the Blue Jays ability to connect from downtown to be the difference maker here this evening. Creighton ranks second nationally in three-point percentage (.431), third in total three-pointers (231), third in three-pointers made per game (12.2) and fifth in field goal percentage (.505).
BUTLER is 1-9 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons and are just 8-17 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.BUTLER is 2-12 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Creighton to cover
|01-25-19||Raptors -2 v. Rockets||119-121||Loss||-107||10 h 39 m||Show|
Houston is a team that needs James Harden to play at an optimal level at all times. He is off a game vs NYK where he scored 61 points and barley got his team in the win column by a 114-110 count. Im now expecting a natural letdown situation to occur and for Harden to just be above average rather than play a super man role. To beat Toronto you have to have a complete team effort, and his supporting cast is not playing up to par, which makes them fade material in this spot, mostly because of their shaky defensive play that has seen them allow 112.2 ppg at home this season. Note: Chris Paul and Clint Capela are less than 100% and if they play may see very limited time. Meanwhile, the Raptors are expected to be a full strength.
D'Antoni is 7-18 ATS ) against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of HOUSTON. HOUSTON overall is 3-12 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The Rockets are 1-15 ATS/SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. The Rockets are also 0-8 ATS/SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 27 points from 3s.The Raptors are 13-0 ATS/SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a road game in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.
Play on Toronto Raptors to cover
|01-25-19||Wizards v. Magic -3.5||95-91||Loss||-105||9 h 6 m||Show|
Washington foolishly got themselves involved into a run and gun affair with Golden State on Thursday night, and are now completely exhausted going into a back to back situation. The banged up Wizards exhausted three starters at least 39 minutes and come into this game with an empty tank, something that the inconsistent Magic should be able to take advantage of on their own home floor.
The Magic are 20-0-2 ATS /22-0 SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.The Wizards are 0-11 ATS/SU as a road dog with no rest after they had 3+ players with 20+ points.
WASHINGTON is 3-15 ATS in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season and 0-10 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
Play on Orlando to cover
|01-25-19||Rider -2 v. Iona||71-77||Loss||-106||11 h 5 m||Show|
Riders is on a 5 game win streak with all the victories coming against conference rivals, and are operating on all cylinders. Needless to say they will be hard to stop tonight here at Iona, versus a side, that is a hard team to beat on their own floor, but far from consistent overall as is evident by a 4-6 mark in their L/10 trips to the hardwood. With that said, Im betting on a Rider side, that returns all five starters, their top six scorers and 95 percent of their scoring from last year's team to continue to roll.
IONA is 4-11 ATS in all games this season.IONA is 2-14 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Road teams as a favorite or pick (RIDER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 94-46 ATS L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Home teams as an underdog or pick (IONA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games are 3-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential clicking in at 8.7 ppg.
Play on Rider to cover
|01-25-19||Brown +7 v. Yale||71-79||Loss||-105||10 h 56 m||Show|
Brown had a 6 game win streak abruptly end in a hard fought 70-67 loss to Yale last time out as hosts in the first game of a back and back series. Now in revenge mode I look for Brown to get us a cover here and possibly end Yales 7 game win streak. Note:Martin is 9-1 ATS in road games off a home loss as the coach of BROWN and is 10-1 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Brown has covered 15 of their 21 trips to Yale and get the nod again to grab the cash for us.
Play on Brown to cover
|01-25-19||Michigan v. Indiana +4.5||69-46||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
Indiana is reeling having lost 5 straight games. Desperation has set in over this Indiana hoops program and Archie Moore and company desperately need a win. I know the Hoosiers do not inspire bettors in their current form, but here at home , Im betting they leave everything on the floor in an attempt to upend a powerful Michigan team and get a much needed victory. Considering that Michigan has been mired in a slump over the last two tilts scoring just 54 points in a loss at Wisconsin and 59 in a buzzer beater win over Minnesota it is not inconceivable Indiana won't make life even ore difficult for the Wolverines in this spot. Note: .Beilein is 2-10 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less as the coach of MICHIGAN
Miller is 40-23 ATS in home games against conference opponents in all games he has coached since 1997. Dont count Miller out in his abilities to coach his team to success. When he was in Dayton his team started 12-3 one season, and than start A-10 play with a 1-5 record, he corrected that situation and Dayton would turn it around, winning 13 of its last 16 and an eventual appearance in the Elite Eight appearance. Im not saying thats the direction he will take the Hoosiers in this season, but Im saying look for him to find a way for his team to make a game of this here tonight.
Hoosiers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Play on Indiana to cover
|01-25-19||Buffalo v. Kent State +9||88-79||Push||0||10 h 35 m||Show|
No. 14 Buffalo is 17-3 overall and 5-1 in conference play. In their last outing, the Bulls dropped their first conference game against Northern Illinois, 77-75, showing us they are far from perfect. Tonight against a Kent State team that was one of three teams to defeat them last season, Im betting they will have their hands full again. Meanwhile, Kent State improved to 15-4 in conference play after defending home court with an 87-85 overtime win over Toledo and are 10-2 SU at home this season, and 16-4 L/20 SU at home in this series and get my support getting points here tonight.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
KENT ST is 14-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better) after 15 or more games since 1997 and 10-2 ATS at home under the same perimeters. HC Senderoff is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or kore ) after 15 or more games as the coach of KENT ST.
Play on Kent State to cover
|01-24-19||Tennessee State +12 v. Austin Peay||74-89||Loss||-109||10 h 4 m||Show|
Hot shooting and smothering defense carried Tennessee State to a 70-56 win over Austin Peay at the Gentry Center last season. According to my projections theTigers can stay fairly close again and cover this number vs the Govs. TSU is 3-2 in the last four seasons, vs Austin Peay with one win coming in the Winfield Dunn Center. Six games between these combatants have gone into overtime, four in Clarksville, one in the Dunn Center in the first round of the OVC Tournament in 2007. Im betting for a closer game than many might expect.
TENNESSEE ST is 42-17 ATS in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997.
Home favorites of 10 or more points (AUSTIN PEAY) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 22-55 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tennessee St to cover
|01-24-19||Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 238||116-122||Push||0||11 h 25 m||Show|
Without the injured Anthony Davis in the Pelicans lineup its obvious they are far less prolific offensively and instead are relying on a more conservative brand of basketball, as has been evident in their last two games, where they saw fairly low scoring games, beating Memphis by a 105-85 count and then losing to 94-98 to Detroit. Here tonight against a explosive Oklahoma City team, Im betting on them playing a physical methodical brand of hoops that will base itself on paying attention to ball control in transition. This Im betting will help keep this combined score on the low side of the Total.
The Pelicans are 0-12 UNDER as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored, with the games going under by an average of more than 18 ppg. The Thunder are 0-6 L/6 UNDER off a home game when they shot better than 50 percent from the field their last two with a combined average of 196.5 ppg.
HC Donovan in his L/52 as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored.
Play on the UNDER
|01-24-19||Warriors v. Wizards UNDER 235||126-118||Loss||-105||11 h 57 m||Show|
Washington is coming off its best defensive effort of the season, a 101-87 win over the Detroit Pistons on Monday. The Wizards held the Pistons to just 34 points in the opening half . That type of basketball will serve them well vs the leagues most explosive team the Golden State Warriors. I know the Warriors defeated the visiting Wizards 144-122 on Oct. 24 in a wide open affair, but Washington has transitioned into a different team since then thanks in part to losing John Wall, and the often injured Dwight Howard. With that said, Im betting on the Wizards doing everything they can to slow the champs down, in an effort to compete and have an opportunity to pull off a unlikely upset. This combination of projected events will Im betting keep this score on the low side of the Total.
The Warriors are 1-14-2 UNDER with more than one day of rest off a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with a combined average of 206 ppg going on the board. None of the 17 tilts eclipsed this total.
The Warriors are 0-10-1 UNDER as a road favorite after their opponent shot under 60% from the free throw line with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored.
The Wizards are 0-15 UNDER by more than 17 ppg as a 8+ dog off a win as a favorite when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game with the combined average score of 184.9 ppg scored.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.
GOLDEN STATE L/46 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 230 since 1996 have seen a combined average of 232.6 ppg scored. Kerr is 23-11 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 221.1 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 43-10 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. None of the 53 games eclipsed this Total.
Play on the UNDER
|01-24-19||Coastal Carolina v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2||72-71||Loss||-108||9 h 3 m||Show|
The L/14 seasons, Little Rock has called the Jack Stephens Center home, and the venue has helped the Trojans become one of the Sun Belt's most proficient home teams. Little Rock has record a 130-72 overall record (.644) at the Jack and is 71-45 (.612) in Sun Belt play, posting a winning record in 12 of the 13 seasons . The Trojans are 6-3 at home this year, winning their last three games at the Jack and get the nod here tonight vs Coastal Carolina.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
CBB favorite vs. the money line (ARK-LITTLE ROCK) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are 88-17 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arkansas Little Rock to cover
|01-24-19||Tulsa v. Cincinnati OVER 134||64-88||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
Cincinnati defeated Tulsa 70-65 on the road last time out, and will Im betting score north of 75+ points today while, Tulsa chases in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this Total.
CINCINNATI is 11-1 OVER in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 145.4 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 12-1 OVER in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons and s 6-0 OVER in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of 143.7 ppg scored.(Cinn beat Wichita State 64-55 last time out) Prior to that last game the Bcats averaged 80 ppg during a 7 game span.
CBB teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (TULSA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a close road loss by 3 points or less are 44-14 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-23-19||Nuggets v. Jazz -3||108-114||Win||100||13 h 15 m||Show|
Denver has lost their L/7 trips to the Salt Lake City to play the Jazz and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Look for a very motivated effort from a revenge minded Jazz side that lost an embarrassing 103-88 road battle in the Mile High City back in November. Note: Home favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 78-16 L/23 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. (Utah lost to Portland last time out, and were thumped by DD vs the Nuggets the when they played earlier this season)
Home team is 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Utah.Favorite is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Utah is 15-5 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 8-22 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is 2-12 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons
Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Jazz are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Jazz are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.
Home teams (UTAH) - off a loss against a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 45-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Utah Jazz to cover
|01-23-19||Hawks v. Bulls -2||121-101||Loss||-100||10 h 57 m||Show|
This will be the second of four meetings between the Hawks and Bulls. Chicago took the first game 97-85 in Atlanta on Oct. 27. The Bulls have now won the past five games against Atlanta and the Hawks are one of the few teams that they matchup well against. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of playing better of late, still have not found a consistent way to win on the road where they have lost 19 of 25 games and are once again fade material.
ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are101-22 L/5 seasons and 7-0 100% perfect this season.
Play on Chicago Bulls to cover
|01-23-19||Sam Houston State -7 v. Northwestern State||78-64||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
The Sam Houston Bearkats entered 2019 and the Southland season with a sub par 5-8 record, but have won their first five conference games and have the only perfect mark in the league.The Bearkats have thrived in conference play thanks to giving up only 60.8 points per game.
Last Saturday, the BKats prevailed 71-65 at Houston Baptist for their seventh win in the last eight games, including their L/2 road games and are hitting on all cylinders as they come together as a team. Meanwhile. the Demons are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, as they sport a sub par (7-11 overall, 2-3 in the Southland) and lost 78-69 this past Saturday at Abilene Christian, and are now expected to play without second-leading scorer DeAndre Love, (wrist injury.)
Northwestern is a bigger team, but Sam Houston is more athletic, and more intimidating even though their slighter smaller. Look for the tougher more talented road team to lay down the hammer here on the road.
Play on Sam Houston St to cover
|01-23-19||Raptors v. Pacers -4.5||106-110||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
he Indiana Pacers have revenge on board for a loss they suffered to the Raptors earlier this month as road dogs it was their 2nd loss to the Raptors. The Pacers have been good bets in the past when they have same season double revenge on board in this series cashing 3 of their L/4 . Tonight against a tired Raptors team that played last night against run and gun Sacramento Im betting the angry home team will avenge those earlier defeats. Note: Indiana is 6-0 SU/ ATS L/6 at home vs teams playing back to back nights like the Raptors.
After a 120-96 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday, Pacers forward Thaddeus Young had a message for his teammates.
QUOTE"If we want to consider ourselves an elite team or one of those top-tier teams, it starts with beating them," Young said Tuesday after practice. "I told them, 'We don't beat them, then everyone is going to continue to look at us the same way they do now: not in that class. In order to be in that class, we have to beat those teams. And we haven't done it yet. Not lately.' END QUOTE
NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 29-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors
NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more. are 2-29 SU L/5 seasons 94% conversion rate with the average point diff clicking in at 12 ppg.
Play on Indiana to cover
|01-23-19||Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 218.5||106-110||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
Toronto is on tired legs after playing last night, and the Pacers are defence first team. This combination Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are projecting.
INDIANA is 12-1 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 12-1 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 196.9 ppg scored and s 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or kess turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 201.5 ppg scored.INDIANA is 12-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.
The Pacers are 0-15 UNDER L/15 when the line is within three of pick off a win in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 198.9 ppg scored. None of the games went over this total.
NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 33-9 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-23-19||Georgia +11.5 v. LSU||82-92||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
Alot of public money has come in on LSU here tonight, and some sharp money has now fired back with Georgia . I my self project this line to be closer to 9.5 to 10 points thus giving us a almost 1 possession value line to back with the underdog. I know the Dawgs have not looked good so far this season, and are off a ugly 62-52 loss to Florida lat time out, but their battle tested after playing Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky in SEC play already this season so they wont be intimidated by the red hot Cajun Tigers in this tilt. Note: Georgia has won 3 straight in this series and have covered 5 of the L/6 meetings, and actually matchup well from a system vs system perspective.
Bulldogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home.GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.LSU is 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points since 1997.
CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (GEORGIA) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 61-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Georgia Bulldogs to cover
|01-23-19||Providence v. Xavier -3||64-62||Loss||-109||12 h 11 m||Show|
Xavier a team that has struggled in Conference play so far this season have been looking forward to payback for last seasons Big East tourney loss in the semifinals to a Providence side that has also been struggling losing 4 of their L/5 overall. The X-men have proven good bets in the recent past when they have revenge on board as they are a bankroll expanding 11-3 ATS in SU wins when seeking revenge and are a perfect 5-0 at home SU L/5 games in this series.
XAVIER is 93-66 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997.
Play on Xavier to cover
|01-22-19||Ole Miss v. Alabama -1||53-74||Win||100||14 h 39 m||Show|
The Crimson Tide lost a close game to Tennessee on the weekend 71-68 but covering as 14 point dogs. You can see this team is coming together and up trending and already have a statement win vs Kentucky earlier this season and as of Monday the Crimson Tide are No. 50 in the NET rankings that replaced the RPI in helping the NCAA selection committee select its field of 68. Tonight against No.20 Ole Miss Im betting the Tides reserves who have been a strength of this year's team, averaging nearly 27 points per contest (26.6) entering the contest against Ole Miss will be one of the difference makers tonight in this SEC battle. Also The Tide are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation. Alabama has won the rebounding fights in 16 of its 17 tilts this season. For the year, Alabama ranks second in the SEC and 27th nationally in rebounding margin (+6.4), outrebounding the opposition by an average of 39.2-32.8. In SEC games only, the Tide has outrebounded each of its five SEC opponents and leads the league in rebound margin at +5.8 (39.8-34.0). Meanwhile, Ole Miss is over achieving this year, and I keep waiting for them to drop back down to earth and feel confident betting against them vs a hungry team, with revenge on board for a loss at the Pavillon last season by a 78-66 count. Alabama owns a 38-7 record when playing Ole Miss in Coleman Coliseum, including wins in four of the last five games played here as hosts and get the nod again.Crimson Tide are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Crimson Tide are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Crimson Tide are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Crimson Tide are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rebels are 5-11-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Alabama.
Play on Alabama to cover
|01-22-19||Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 227.5||114-123||Loss||-107||9 h 0 m||Show|
Portland enters this game on tired legs after a back and forth teeter totter affair last night in a game they won by a 109-104 score over the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City. Now exhausted they will be in the precarious position of having to deal with a explosive Oklahoma City squad. Needless to say I doubt the Blazers will want to run and gun here, and will be out looking to play a more conservative brand of transitional basketball instead which will see very few fast breaks which in turn will directly skew the total combined score to the low side. Note: The Trailblazers are 0-9 L/9 UNDER off a game as a dog that had at least eight lead changes going under by more than 16 ppg with the average combined score clicking in at 202.3 ppg. Also PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.
In Portlands L/32 games when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons a combined average of 219.1 ppg were scored.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-10 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored.
Under is 20-8 in Trail Blazers last 28 vs. Western Conference.Under is 20-8 in Trail Blazers last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 38-16 in Thunder last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 24-9-2 in the last 35 meetings in Oklahoma City.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 34-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-22-19||Villanova +1.5 v. Butler||80-72||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
There have been five meetings between Villanova and Butler at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse between the Wildcats and Bulldogs since the BIG EAST was reconfigured in 2013. None has been decided by more than eight points and the average margin of victory in those clashes is 4.8 points per game. Villanova won the first three games and have lost the last two, but come into this game wide awake, with a lot to prove, and won't be intimidated by a Butler team that my own power rankings suggest is less superior to this version of Wildcats and a few notches under previous incarnations of Butler basketball. Im betting on Villanova's two senior foundational pieces, Paschall and Booth to be the difference makers tonight and for this fast improving sophomore supporting group to help us grab the cash in hostile environment.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wildcats are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Wildcats are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Wildcats are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.Wildcats are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games overall.Wildcats are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 road games.Wildcats are 47-23 ATS in their last 70 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Play on Villanova to cover
|01-22-19||Clemson +6 v. Florida State||68-77||Loss||-113||11 h 56 m||Show|
Well rested Clemson off for a week entering this game will look for its second consecutive victory as visitors to Tallahassee tonight to face a tired Florida State side playing their 2nd 48 our turnaround . The Tigers’ last victory on the road against Florida State was a 62-56 victory on Feb. 4, 2015. FSU is not only tired but are dealing with nagging injuries, ( Mann, Trent, and Phil) makes them weak home favs tonight.
Seminoles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Seminoles are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Clemson to cover
|01-22-19||Toledo v. Kent State +3||85-87||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
The Flashes improved to 14-4 overall and 3-2 in conference play as they defended home court in a 78-68 win over NIU last time out and roll into this game against Toledo as viable home dogs. After all the Flashes have played their best hoops at home this season, where they are 9-2 SU and deserve respect getting points in this friendly environment, vs what my own rankings suggest is a very good but slightly over rated Rockets hoops group, that has some defensive short coming as is evident by allowing 77.1 ppg on the road this season. Kent State is 9-3 L/12 at home in this series, and get the nod here tonight to get the cover. Note:Senderoff is 7-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) after 15 or more games as the coach of KENT ST and overal lKENT ST is 13-2 ATS L/15 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more) after 15 or more games since 1997.
Play on Kent State to cover
|01-22-19||St. Peter's v. Niagara -3||74-72||Loss||-105||3 h 38 m||Show|
Five of Niagara's nine wins have come at the Gallagher Center with victories over St. Bonaventure, New Hampshire, Cornell, Norfolk State, and Iona and this is where they play their best basketball. Meanwhile, Saint Peter's is 0-9 on the road this season.
The Purple Eagles are 20-7 at home versus the Peacocks since the 1991-92 season.
• Six of the last 10 meetings with Saint Peter's have been decided by less than five points with NU going 5-1 in those six games and they get the nod again on short line. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (ST PETERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 2-56 L/22 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate.
Play on Niagara to cover
|01-21-19||Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 218||109-104||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
My projected Totals estimate for this game, is closer to 215 thus according to those projections we have value with an under wager here.
Utah is well rested and will be ready to play a free flowing Portland team physically here today in an effort to slow their offensive efficiency. The Jazz have held 4 of their L/6 opponents to 99 points or under, and are currently playing the kind of D we have come to expect from this hardcore blue collar group behind the 3rd ranked ppg allowed and 3rd best defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland owns the 18th rank pace, and when they are not allowed to flow and connect are a team that can falter, as was the case here in Utah when they visited here back in December scoring just 96 points which followed up scoring just 90 points against the Jazz at home a couple days earlier. Im betting on a repeat type of combined score here tonight in Salt Lake City.
UTAH is 14-6 UNDER after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.UTAH is 15-5 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 season
NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg scored.
Play on the UNDER
|01-21-19||Baylor +3 v. West Virginia||85-73||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
West Virginia is off a huge win vs Kansas this past Saturday and are now in a huge letdown situation. With Baylor out looking for revenge for a 13-point loss in the first round of the Big 12 tourney last season which was their 3rd loss in this series last season, I now expected the Bears to be bad news for Huggins and company. Before West Virginias last game they did not look like contenders and are down a notch this season talent wise, so its not like Im calling for a miracle here or anything today by backing a highly cmpetetive Baylor team that is 6-0-1 ATS L/7 overall.W VIRGINIA is 13-25 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
Baylor is 12-3 ATS under head coach Scott Drew when not favored by more than 6 points against sub .500 opponents.BAYLOR is 10-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 season
Play on Baylor to cover
|01-21-19||Creighton v. Georgetown||91-87||Loss||-109||11 h 12 m||Show|
Monday's showdown features the top two scoring offenses in the league with Creighton averaging 83.5 ppg with the Hoyas right behind with 82.8 ppg. Georgetown continues to be the top rebounding squad in the BIG EAST with 40.6 rpg and also leads the conference in assists with 17.5 apg and Im betting that their ferocity under the glass and ability to spread the ball around will be the difference maker for a home team win in this spot for Georgetown.
|01-21-19||Magic v. Hawks||122-103||Loss||-109||6 h 37 m||Show|
The struggling Orlando Magic, visit the up trending Atlanta Hawks in a holiday matinee Monday afternoon in a tilt that Im betting favors the home team.Atlanta is currently in 12th place in the East, one spot behind Orlando, but has been the better of the two of late, going 8-8 SU in its last 16 games.
ORLANDO is 18-31 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.
NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46%or less on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are just 32-86 L5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 32-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|01-20-19||Clippers v. Spurs UNDER 222.5||103-95||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
The Clippers are currently in disarray, and are having problems at both ends of the court, as is evident by 5 straight losses, and are now going to play todays games without forward Danilo Gallinari (back) and guard Lou Williams (Hamstring). With the Clippers offence not clicking on all cylinders of late, and injuries slowing them, Im betting a more concerted defensive effort will be on tonights agenda vs a San Antonio Spurs side, that has gone under in 7 of their L/9 at home as favorites with the combined average score of 209.4 ppg scored.
Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
|01-20-19||Missouri State +4.5 v. Drake||63-74||Loss||-110||7 h 26 m||Show|
The Missouri State Bears have won their last two MVC road games with recent wins at Indiana State & Bradley and are more than capable of hanging tough here and getting us the cover. Missouri State also has revenge on board for a pair of losses to Drake last season, by 61-58 and 76-73 scores. Note: The Blackies are 8-2 SU vs the Bulldogs with revenge and get my backing here today.
HC Ford of Missouri State is 14-2 ATS in road games in January games in all games he has coached in his career.
Play on Missouri State to cover
|01-19-19||Cavs +17.5 v. Nuggets||102-124||Loss||-101||11 h 35 m||Show|
Oh boy how far the Cavs have fallen since the departure of their superstar LeBron James. Just take a look this line, and you will see their down quite a bit in the eyes of the public and lines makers. But pros don't like to be embarrassed, and now the NBA has embraced and accepted betting lines, you can bet that all the Cavs are aware of how thye are being perched tonight in the Mile High City and will be out to prove their detractors wrong and at least be competitive. I know the Cavs took it on the chin last night in Utah by a 115-99 count, but their well conditioned and young enough to push tonight and get us the cover on a slightly bloated line.
Denver exploded on the ChicagoBulls last time out after being humbled by the Warriors in their previous game, but now after back to back all out efforts could be an a natural letdown spot here.The Nuggets are 0-12 ATS at home after they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and are 6-6 SU in those games with non coming by more than 7 points.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS after scoring 120 points or more this season.
NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - excellent offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a sub par defensive team (102 PPG or more) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 23-51 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cleveland to cover
|01-19-19||Oregon +4 v. Arizona State||64-78||Loss||-115||5 h 10 m||Show|
ASU (12-5, 3-2 in Pac-12 play)shooting woes make them lousy favs here . On the season ASU is hitting just .439 from the field and .342 from 3-point range but an nasty .654 from the line. Even though Oregon is missing banged up with some injuries their key starter sophomore F Kenny Wooten is healthy again making them dangerous underdogs here tonight .
ARIZONA ST is 1-11 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons is 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 20-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Oregon to cover
|01-19-19||Celtics v. Hawks +9||113-105||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
Atlanta is up trending in my power rankings and are 7-7 SU in their L/14 games and deserve my respect here in this spot vs Boston on their own home court. The market thanks to the public money has pushed this line up giving me an edge here with the home dog Hawks. I know the Celtics have beat up on these kids in DD wins so far this season, but Atlanta as mentioned above is playing much better hoops of late and improving . Meanwhile, Boston is off playing last night vs Memphis in a hard fought home win and on tired legs. This situation is a good omen for us here behind the young legs of a Hawks group that is 4-0 ATS as dogs against unrested opposition this campaignvand that are 3-0-1 ATS at home when playing with 3 or more days of rest. It must be noted that the Celtics are just 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU as road favs without rest.
Stevens is 2-15 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON.BOSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|01-19-19||Pennsylvania +7 v. Temple||77-70||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
Temple has won 11 straight meetings in this series, but in recent battles here on the road Penn State has been very competitive and covered 7 of their L/9 visits. I know the Quakers have looked wobbly of late, without injured G Ryan Betley who is out for season, and are on on a 4 game losing streak, but now in desperation mode, will be ready to leave everything on the floor today. Note: PENNSYLVANIA is 21-8 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1997. You have to remember this is a PennState team that upended Villanova this season, and are not completely futile or without talent.
TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Penn State to cover
|01-19-19||Kentucky +5 v. Auburn||82-80||Win||100||7 h 46 m||Show|
There was a key number that I was looking for in this Kentucky vs Auburn battle, and now that I have it will recommend we pull the trigger.
Saturday's matchup between No. 12/14 Kentucky and No. 14/12 Auburn will mark the eighth time in the series' history the teams will meet while both are ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and the first since No. 24 Auburn took on No. 4 Kentucky on Jan. 22, 2003.
Kentucky owns a 92-19 all-time record in the series, including a 30-15 advantage when the game is played in Auburn. UK also has a lead in the series during the seven prior meetings when the teams were both ranked with a 6-1 edge.
John Calipari and Bruce Pearl have matched up head-to-head with ranked squads on four occasions, splitting the meetings 2-2. Calipari is 9-5 all-time against Pearl.
Auburn beat Kentucky last season and now we have revenge on board for Calipari in company.
This game will feature an Auburn side that likes to smack down 3s and take an average of 35 a game, and HC Calipari despite of seeing his team struggle against treys will have his athletic side ready to respond here today. Note: Wildcats have held their last two opponent to 50 points or less , and are extremely capable of keeping this game close and even pulling off the upset vs the public favourite.
Auburn is proving susceptible to fouls and giving up offensive rebounds, Im betting the charity stripe and the Cats determination under the basket will be a deciding factor in which side covers today.
Play on Kentucky to cover
|01-19-19||Louisiana Tech v. Charlotte OVER 129.5||40-55||Loss||-110||5 h 6 m||Show|
Both these teams play defence first basketball, but according to my numbers the Total is off by close to 5 points on the low side as the linebackers over adjust according to public perceptions and trends. My Totals data suggests this tilt should be closer to 134 to 135. Thus giving us value according to my projections.
Konkol in his L/18 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH has seen combined average of 146 ppg scored.LOUISIANA TECH in their L/9 after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 140.9 ppg scored.
CHARLOTTE in their L/45 games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 149.4 ppg scored.
CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two love average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 58-25 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-19-19||Thunder v. 76ers -1.5||117-115||Loss||-112||4 h 16 m||Show|
Oklahoma City played a hard fought tilt last time out, and than lost in OT by 10 points to the Lakers , which is a huge drain on a team both emotionally and physically. Now travelling from West to East going against a Philadelphia team that is starting to uptrend both from a talent and maturity level, and that plays their best hoops at home Im betting the Thunder will be on the wrong end of this score when the final buzzer goes off. Note: OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Even if J Embild does not play today for the 76ers Im betting they find a way to win.
NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 59-9 L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Philadelphia to cover
|01-19-19||Northern Illinois +3 v. Kent State||68-78||Loss||-108||4 h 3 m||Show|
Even though this game is being played at Kent State I have this tilt projected as a pickem, making N.Illinois a value selection here according to my estimates. NIU has revenge on board for a 61-59 loss in last years tourney to Kent State and are a experienced team with 5 returning starters that can get things done . Northern Illinois has covered 6 of the L/7 meetings and gets the nod again.
Note: Kent State picked up a big win last time out as home pups , but in the past KENT ST is just 6-16 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog and are 0-10 ATS at home when coming off a Straight up underdog win and facing opposition coming off a SU/ATS loss..
N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Northern Illinois to cover
|01-19-19||Kansas v. West Virginia +5.5||64-65||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
Both these programs are down a notch this season, with West Virginia getting the most trash talk from the pundits. If anyone thinks that West Virginia's proud hoops program will now roll over and die, because of a bad start might be in for a surprise especially opposing betting detractors as HC Huggy Bear is 6-0 ATS L/6 at home as a dog. What Im betting here to happen in Morgantown is that the Mounties will have plenty of fight left in them vs a Kansas program that has not faired well here in the recent past as is evident by a their 1-5 ATS mark here in their L/6 visits.
KANSAS is 2-11 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.W VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1997. W VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
Play on West Virginia to cover
|01-19-19||Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Syracuse||63-74||Loss||-109||6 h 37 m||Show|
Talk about a huge letdown situation as Syracuse comes home off a huge win vs Duke last time out on the road. Wow. But hey you have to remember that Duke was off a thrilling tight win vs Florida State previous to that and were flat for that affair vs the Orange in their followup. Now The Panthers who are starting to play much better go against another emotionally drained team, and could easily spring a ugly upset here, much like Syracuse did to Duke. This Pittsburgh program has also been a cash ATS for their backers going 22-8 ATS in the series, including 5-0 ATS as dogs of 6 or more points and really must not be underestimated in this situational play. Remember the Orange are far from infallible at home as was the case when they lost outright to Georgia Tech as 8.5 point home chalk already this season.
Take the points here with Pittsburgh to cover
|01-18-19||Warriors v. Clippers +7||112-94||Loss||-110||16 h 13 m||Show|
Golden State is playing some top tier basketball at the moment , but their hosts the LAClippers have proven themselves to be very competitive group vs strong units, and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 with the underdog recording a 4-0 ATS record in the last 4 meetings. Earlier this season, the Warriors beat the Clippers by a 129-127 count at home, and now with revenge on board, are ready to spring an upset and be very competitive again.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 25-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors.
NBA Home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-21 ATS L/23 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.Warriors are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. Western Conference.Warriors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
GOLDEN STATE has failed to cover 19 of their L/25 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
Play on the LA Clippers to cover
|01-18-19||Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5||112-128||Win||100||14 h 20 m||Show|
Portland comes in off an easy 129-112 home victory over Cleveland and I am betting they will be much fresher than a Pelicans team playing their 4th consecutive road game on what will be a 5 game west coast road trip and also off a hard fought emotional back and forth loss to the Golden State Warriors last time out. With Portland playing at home where they have won 19 of 26 games this season, they have an edge. Note: New Orleans has lost 18 of 24 road games this season and are 4-13 ATS off a road loss this season and 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road game this season.
PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons.PORTLAND is 39-26 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 59-109 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Portland to cover
|01-18-19||Warriors v. Clippers OVER 241||112-94||Loss||-104||13 h 50 m||Show|
This is a very high total, but for good reason, as these teams have a history of run and gun affairs with their L/9 games going over the set total with the most recent meeting seeing 256 combined points going on the board. The Warriors are currently on a 6 game win streak and have not scored less than 119 points in any of the six victories on their winning run and are averaging 133.8 points over that stretch with the three pointers reigning down by the bucket converting 18.6 treys per game during their current blitz . Im betting they come out running and gunning again, and for the Clippers to have no choice but to open up as well, in what will be another big time scoring fest.
Warriors have gone over in 6 of their L/7 Dickson games . Clips: 4-0 O/U in their 4th straight home game / 9-1 OVER L10 as div dogs and have gone 6 of 7 times at home vs .600 or better opposition. LA CLIPPERS are 11-1 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 GOLDEN STATE/(LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 60-20 OVER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-18-19||Nets v. Magic +1||117-115||Loss||-105||11 h 15 m||Show|
These teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. With Brooklyn winning 15 of 20 while Orlando has lost 15 of their L/20. However, Orlando after losing a 120-115 overtime road loss against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday a game that that were leading late, are in desperation mode, and feeling a little humiliated which Im betting makes them dangerous in this spot. Meanwhile, the Nets exerted alot of energy last time out making big time comebacks in regulation and then eventually in overtime Wednesday to record a surprising 145-142 road victory over a top tier Houston Rocket side and could now easily be in an emotional letdown situation, making the home team a viable underdog here.
The Magic have won 16 of their past 21 home games against the Nets.
Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Play on the Orlando Magic to cover
|01-18-19||St. Joe's v. St. Louis UNDER 134.5||57-68||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
St.Louis plays a methodical conservative type of hoops especially at home , where they are 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite or pick this season with a combined average score of 129.4 ppg and is 6-0 UNDER in home games after playing a game as favorite this season, with a combined average of just 122.8 ppg scored. When St.Louis played St.Jospehs last season both games were well below this set total with 119 and 121 points outputs and Im betting on a similar outcome here tonight.
Note: St.Jospehs offensive flow in transition is being tested in a big way as injuries to Pierfrancesco Oliva and Lamarr Kimble test the team in a big way . Defence becomes highly important if the Hawks want to be competitive here which adds credence to this being a lower scoring game between jesuit rivals.
Saint Louis is 17th in the NCAA in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. The Billikens lead the A-10 in scoring defense, yielding 62.5 ppg.
CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST JOSEPHS) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 126 ppg.
|01-17-19||CS Sacramento +2.5 v. Northern Arizona||66-64||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
My own head to head power rankings makes Sacramento State a possible SU upset underdog here at N.Arizona in this big Sky Conference tilt.
Sacramento State are off a heart breaking 72-70 home loss to Idaho State on Saturday, and are now desperate for a win. Sacramento State (6-7, 0-4) are the lone team in the Big Sky without a conference win, but are better than their record indicates as the Hornets could just as easily be 3-1 in league play, but thanks to their conditioning and concentration deficiencies the Hornets have had trouble in the later stages of the second half in three of their conference losses. Note: Sacramento State had a 63-58 lead slip away with 2:30 remaining vs. Northern Colorado, trailed just, 69-67, with 4:00 left at Montana State, and held a 64-62 lead with 2:38 left this past Saturday vs. Idaho State. Bad Breaks, also played a part, and like all good ad bad runs must come to end eventually which Im betting will be the case again tonight .
Last season, in these teams' only meeting, Sacramento State held a nine-point halftime lead in Flagstaff before NAU outscored the Hornets by a 40-26 margin on the way to a 58-53 Lumberjack victory. The Hornets missed each of their last five FG attempts, and did not score during the final 2:18, and watched NAU close the last minute on a 6-0 run. Just a couple breaks here tonight for the bad news Hornets and they will take home a desperately needed victory and more importantly a cover for us .
• Sacramento State had been 6-2 prior to the current five-game losing streak, so their not completely futile, and have the edge on this line .Sacramento State's four conference losses have come against four of the top five teams in the Big Sky standings.
HC Katz is 15-6 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games as the coach of SACRAMENTO ST.
N ARIZONA is 14-30 ATS L/44 at home when the line is +3 to -3.
Play on Sacramento State to cover
|01-17-19||Belmont +1 v. Jacksonville State||80-91||Loss||-108||11 h 15 m||Show|
Belmont enters the 2018-19 season as one of only six non-Power 5 programs to post a Top 100 RPI each of the last eight seasons and must be respected every time they go to court no matter where the game is taking place. FROM A MATCHUP PERSPECTIVE Belmont according to my power rankings should be -2 favs here on the road vs this top tier Jacksonville State hoops program and are the superior team. The last time these teams met last season the Bruins were embarrassed at home by a 83-73 count and now HC Byrd will have team ready for some payback.
CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BELMONT) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 100-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.
CBB Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BELMONT) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 25-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Belmont to cover
|01-17-19||Arkansas State v. Texas-Arlington OVER 139.5||59-68||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
My Totals estimates for this game are closer to 142.5 to143 this according to those projections give us value with an over wager . Arkansas State plays a much more wide open style of hoops then Texas Arlington scoring average 75.2 ppg on offence and have allowed north of 83 ppg in 10 road games . Arlington when pushed can light up the board and had 82 points vs App State recently and Im betting they will be pushed tonight and will do significant offensive damage in a tit that Im betting eclipses this Total.
ARKANSAS ST is 26-12 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997 with a combined average score of 144.2 ppg scored.
CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more are 63-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|01-17-19||76ers v. Pacers -3||120-96||Loss||-106||12 h 40 m||Show|
The Sixers are a upper echelon NBA team that still has some growing up to do, as their young roster still has not found a way to harness or sustain their energy levels.The Sixers despite of being ultra talented are inconsistent especially on the road where they find themselves tonight in Indiana to play the Pacers. Their futility when it comes to their betting backers bankrolls has been significantly effected as is evident by their sub .500 away record of 10-12 SU and 8-14 ATS. The Sixers also make a habit of following up explosive performances, like the one they had last time out vs Minnesota ( 149-107)with average at best outputs as is evident by the following trends...PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more this season and is 2-10 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season and is 4-12 ATS after scoring 120 points or more this season. Tonight against a equally talented Pacers squad, Im betting their in trouble. Note: The 76ers are just 1-5 ATS vs .600 or better opposition on the road this season. With that said, Im recommending we take Indiana to cover as short home chalk.
INDIANA is 33-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 39-26 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 8-33 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 6-28 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indiana to cover
|01-16-19||Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors||140-147||Loss||-115||14 h 3 m||Show|
Golden State came out last night with something to prove and walloped the Denver Nuggets in a start to finish beatdown. Working that hard and exerting that much energy especially in the thin air of the Mile High City , and then hopping on a flight home, will Im betting see the champs exhausted and running on fumes as this game against the visiting Pelicans progresses .With that said, look for a offensively capable New Orleans squad to come out here and actually give the dubs a run for their money in Oakland tonight.
The Warriors are 1-6 ATS L/7 at home with no rest and are 0-4 ATS when coming off a revenge tilt which they had last night vs the Nuggets for a previous loss.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-8 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a negative point diff of 0.7 ppg.
Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover
|01-16-19||Raptors v. Celtics -1.5||108-117||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
Boston and Toronto according to power rankings and my head to head projections on a a neutral floor are -2 chalk. However, with Boston enjoying home court advantage here tonight, the line should be closer to Boston -3 at thus giving us value with this number. It must also be noted that the Raptors: 0-4 L4 in a division road game with the series host going 7-0 ATS L/7. Im betting nothing changes tonight.
The season series between the Raptors and Celtics is tied at 1, with each team winning at home. The Raptors won 113-101 on Oct. 19, and the Celtics won 123-116 in overtime Nov. 16
Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference. .Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Celtics are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600..BOSTON is 14-3 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.Stevens is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON.
NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 23-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Boston to cover
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