|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-19-19||Louisiana Tech v. Charlotte OVER 129.5||40-55||Loss||-110||5 h 6 m||Show|
Both these teams play defence first basketball, but according to my numbers the Total is off by close to 5 points on the low side as the linebackers over adjust according to public perceptions and trends. My Totals data suggests this tilt should be closer to 134 to 135. Thus giving us value according to my projections.
Konkol in his L/18 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH has seen combined average of 146 ppg scored.LOUISIANA TECH in their L/9 after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 140.9 ppg scored.
CHARLOTTE in their L/45 games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 149.4 ppg scored.
CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two love average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 58-25 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-18-19||St. Joe's v. St. Louis UNDER 134.5||57-68||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
St.Louis plays a methodical conservative type of hoops especially at home , where they are 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite or pick this season with a combined average score of 129.4 ppg and is 6-0 UNDER in home games after playing a game as favorite this season, with a combined average of just 122.8 ppg scored. When St.Louis played St.Jospehs last season both games were well below this set total with 119 and 121 points outputs and Im betting on a similar outcome here tonight.
Note: St.Jospehs offensive flow in transition is being tested in a big way as injuries to Pierfrancesco Oliva and Lamarr Kimble test the team in a big way . Defence becomes highly important if the Hawks want to be competitive here which adds credence to this being a lower scoring game between jesuit rivals.
Saint Louis is 17th in the NCAA in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. The Billikens lead the A-10 in scoring defense, yielding 62.5 ppg.
CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST JOSEPHS) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 126 ppg.
|01-17-19||Arkansas State v. Texas-Arlington OVER 139.5||59-68||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
My Totals estimates for this game are closer to 142.5 to143 this according to those projections give us value with an over wager . Arkansas State plays a much more wide open style of hoops then Texas Arlington scoring average 75.2 ppg on offence and have allowed north of 83 ppg in 10 road games . Arlington when pushed can light up the board and had 82 points vs App State recently and Im betting they will be pushed tonight and will do significant offensive damage in a tit that Im betting eclipses this Total.
ARKANSAS ST is 26-12 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997 with a combined average score of 144.2 ppg scored.
CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more are 63-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|01-15-19||St. Louis v. Fordham OVER 120.5||63-60||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
Both these teams are methodical defence first teams, but according to my projections the number has been chiseled down by almost 5 points by the lines-makers in accordance with public perceptions . Im not betting that we wont see a physical grinding game, Im just estimating the combined score will eclipse this offer. Line value resides with an OVER wager.
St.Louis and their opponents in their 15 games this season have seen a combined average of 130.1 ppg scored. Fordham has seen a combined average of 131.6 ppg scored in their games this season.
FORDHAM in their L/11 games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 127 ppg scored.
FORDHAM is 13-2 OVER after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored.
CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (SAINT LOUIS) - good defensive team (40-42.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 140.6 ppg scored.
|01-13-19||Rider v. Niagara OVER 159.5||104-84||Win||100||4 h 55 m||Show|
These teams play fast paced hoops. Rider can score efficiently averaging 77 ppg on average but their defence is atrocious allowing 82+ ppg. Meanwhile, Niagara averages 78.3 ppg at home, while allowing 75.9 ppg in slightly elevated action. When these types of teams meet they usually feed off the others energy which Im this afternoon results in a fairly high scoring game that eclipses the total.
NIAGARA is 10-2 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combine average of 168.9 ppg scored.
NIAGARA is 13-2 OVER when the total is 159.5 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 176.2 ppg scored.NIAGARA is 9-0 OVER in a home game where the total is 160 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combine average of 181. 9 ppg.
Home teams against the total (NIAGARA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 4 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored.
|01-13-19||Marist v. St. Peter's OVER 126||63-72||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
My projections estimate that this total should be closer 131, thus giving us value on this line. Marist has gone over in 3 straight games, and have upped their pace from earlier in the season. Today vs a methodical St.Peters team Im betting they continue to speed things up, which will force their opponent into a opening up a bit themselves. This Im betting results in a combined score that eclipses this beatable total.
MARIST is 12-3 OVER after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MARIST) - off a home loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling team (20-40%) are 30-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 135.4 ppg scored.
|01-10-19||Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic OVER 124||73-80||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
After watching this get bet down from 128 Im betting we have alot of value here according to 133 total combined point projections.
FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 OVER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150 ppg scored OLD DOMINION is 6-0 OVER in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 158.9 ppg and is 13-3 OVER in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 140.1 ppg scored.
CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (FLA ATLANTIC) - poor shooting team - shooting 42% or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse are 54-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-09-19||San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142.5||53-92||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
My own projections estimate that these teams will combined for 146+ points here tonight thus giving value on this totals line. It must be noted Nevada got steamrolled by New Mexico 85-58 last time out, and will be very ready here to get back some lost respect and with that I expect they will mercilessly come at San Jose State and just keep pouring the points down, which will result in a much faster paced higher scoring game than the lines makers expect.
CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (NEVADA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 60 points or less 2 straight games are 24-4 OVER with a combined average of 154.3 ppg scored.
CBBRoad teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (SAN JOSE ST) - after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 29-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.