|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||13-3||Loss||-115||157 h 39 m||Show|
Yes, QB Tom Brady maybe the greatest NFL QB of our generation, and maybe of all time and his HC Bellichck one of the top coaching minds in all of football. But Im still going to pull the trigger on the unthinkable, and go with the Rams here this week at a +FG. Yes, even despite of watching Tom Terrific put on another dramatic show stopper a couple of weeks ago in the championship game to get the Pats to yet another Super Bowl. I also know how fortunate the Rams are to be here thanks in part to a blown call. However, I still feel that Brady and his side kick Gronkowski have slowed down enough to not be as intimidating as they once were, and that the Pats D, is very beatable, as was the case in last seasons Super Bowl vs Philadelphia. Plus the Rams greater body of work this season, was actually superior to that of the Pats, and many at the start of this season including myself saw this LA team as a big time Super Bowl contender and deserving champs behind a deep talented team on both sides of the ball. So here we are and Im not going to waver here in my opinion, and will take a direct stance taking points with the underdog this Super Bowl Sunday in a neutral field environment. Hey its never easy going against the tide of early money, but it must be noted that the underdog has covered 9 of the L/11 Super Bowls and won 8 of those straight up. Im looking for recent history to repeat itself here as I go against the early money.
The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The Patriots have averaged just 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only ranking behind the Oakland Raiders .
Play on the LA Rams to cover
|01-20-19||Patriots +3 v. Chiefs||37-31||Win||100||104 h 15 m||Show|
Everyone loves how explosive the KC Chiefs are offensively, but the Pats behind a future HOF QB and coach are a solid wager here as underdogs.
In each of the last three games Tom Brady has started in which the Patriots were a dog by a field goal or less... the Pats have won by DDs.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last week.
Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992 and s 1-9 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.
NFL team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-7 SU L/5 seasons and 11-1 SU this season!
Play on New England to cover
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 56||37-31||Win||100||22 h 40 m||Show|
Future HOF QB Tom Brady, , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.
In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome.
Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more.
Play on the OVER
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||26-23||Win||100||71 h 45 m||Show|
NFC Championship Game
The Rams. have played some of their best ball on the road going 14-3 SU away from the Coliseum under HC McVay, dating back to last season and deserve our respect here as underdogs vs the New Orleans Saints. The Rams D has been solid on the road this season, allowing an average of 19.9 ppg, while it must be noted that the Saints offence has looked inconsistent down the stretch and have scored 14 or less points in 3 of their L/6 games, and only twice scored more than 20 points. With that said, Im betting on the Rams keeping Drew Bree's and company to a minimum output while they themselves do enough damage to possibly pull off the upset and more importantly cover the number.
This championship round of the play offs has seen 13 lucky upset underdog winners since the 2000 campaign and I wont be surprised if the Rams add their names to that list after today.
NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team (265 or better PY/game) against a poor passing defence (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Rams to cover
|01-13-19||Eagles v. Saints UNDER 50.5||14-20||Win||100||104 h 44 m||Show|
NFC Divisional Playoffs
Alot of pundits were concerned with the way the Eagles defence played this season, but in their L/2 staunch physical efforts they shut out their opponent in their final regular season game , and then allowed a strong Bears team to score just 15 points last weekin their Wild Card affair . Im betting Phillies under rated D stands tall again against, a New Orleans offence that actually struggled quite bit at the end of the season procuring 14 points or less in 3 of their L/5 games. This I expect will see a much lower scoring affair then lines-makers and public are expecting.
Note: I know the Saints walloped the Eagles back in November putting 48 pints on the board, but the defending champs learned alot about their opponents offence that day and will be ready for a much better effort in the rematch.
NFL Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season like Philadelphia are 0-27-1 UNDER by an average 9.96 ppg when playing their second straight road game with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.
NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 42-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots -4||28-41||Win||100||4 h 5 m||Show|
AFC Divisional Playoffs
NE super star future HOF QB Brady is 19-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 11-1 SU and Divisional Round tilts, and Im betting he gets another win here vs the Chargers here this Sunday afternoon in Fox-borough. He has also won all 7 meetings SU vs Rivers, and must not be underestimated despite of the aging process in his ability to lead his team to a convincing victory here again at home and get us the cover. Note: Brady is 10-0-1 ATS in playoff victories when not favored by more than 6 points.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-26 L/35 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
New England to cover
|01-12-19||Colts +5.5 v. Chiefs||13-31||Loss||-105||79 h 58 m||Show|
The Colts enter this game extremely underrated according to my matchup stats and power rankings, and this is evident by winning the stats battles 13 of their L/14 games overall. However, the books are playing to public sentiment knowing how much the public loves the Chiefs and their style of play, and have posted a over valued line on the board that favours the Colts in my humble opinion. It must be noted that the Chiefs did not play all that well down the stretch covering only once in their L/5 overall and have a history of ugly play off performances losing 8 straight ATS at home including 6 straight SU here at Arrowhead. With the Colts Andrew Luck 2-0 SU at Arrowhead in his career is every bit as good as Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and more experienced ,I expect a Colts team that is 7-1 SU/ATS here in this venue to have an edge getting points .
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992.
NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 43-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indianapolis to cover
|01-06-19||Eagles +6 v. Bears||16-15||Win||100||148 h 46 m||Show|
The Philadelphia Eagles had to over come alot of struggles this season, to have a chance to defend their super bowl title and make it to the play offs. But now a new season begins here in the play offs vs a public sweet heart that has a lineup filled with players that generally has very little post season NFL experience. I know the Bears had a tremendous season, but under pressure vs a side that knows how to win big games Im betting they are in trouble. Public money poured in on the Bears from the out set of the opening line, but sharp money has stormed back behind the Eagles and with that I recommend we take the points here.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 26-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -1||23-17||Loss||-125||143 h 21 m||Show|
Ravens league leading defence matches up well vs the Chargers offence as was evident only two weeks when they beat the Chargers in LA by a 22-10 count. After some early public money came in on the Chargers the line sits at around 2.5 and is a viable option if we are backing Baltimore at home where they are 6-2 this season.
LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road this season.
Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.
NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or more TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 54-5 SU L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate and a perfect 9-0 this season for a 100% conversion rate.
NFL Favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-8 ATSL/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover
|01-05-19||Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys||22-24||Win||100||84 h 20 m||Show|
Seattles HC Pete Carroll always gets my respect, and in a key game like this Im betting his football knowledge and coaching abilities will help his hard nosed blue collar group come out on top and more importantly get us the cover vs a inconsistent Dallas crew.
Dallas is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record in the playoffs since 1997.Carroll is 14-5 ATS against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 37-23 ATS as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE. HC Garrett is 28-40 ATS in home games as the coach of DALLAS.Garrett is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of DALLAS.
SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season and is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season.
NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or lessTO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Seattle to cover
|01-05-19||Colts +2 v. Texans||21-7||Win||100||98 h 36 m||Show|
Houstons strength is stopping the run, but teams that can pass like the Colts are a more difficult type of opponent for the Texans. In the last meeting between these teams, Houston couldn't slow down Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Hilton had nine receptions for 199 yards, and Luck passed for 399 yards and two TDs in Indy's 24-21 win in Houston. A repeat type performance is not out of the question here and actually a high probability outcome according to my projections.
HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
O'Brien is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of HOUSTON.
NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 42-6 SU L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 this season!
Play on the Indianapolis to cover
|12-30-18||Colts v. Titans UNDER 43.5||33-17||Loss||-109||84 h 14 m||Show|
This game involving the Indianapolis Colts (9-6) and their hosts the Tennessee Titans (9-6) highlights a situation where which ever team wins goes to the play offs and the other to no no land. Im expecting a conservative game from both sides.
Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a UNDECIDED this week after leaving his Week 16 win vs Washington with a nagging neck-elbow injury that has bothered him all season long. If he plays he will be less then 100% and if his below average backup Blaine Gabbert gets the call.Either way Im expecting HC Vrabel to be conservative in his approach to this important game and mainly use the ground game to move the chains in an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field for long chunks of time and get him out of his flow.
The Colts coach Frank Reich’s teams usually grind along with their opponents in games like this and look for the big play somewhere along the way. It must also be noted that the Colts in the past when they go against a team that averages more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game and the total is less than 50, they have gone under 14-straight straight times .
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 pig scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 13-2 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-30-18||Eagles v. Redskins +7||24-0||Loss||-110||125 h 55 m||Show|
The Eagles need to win and they need the Bears to beat the Vikings to get into the playoffs. Needless to say, the Eagles need only worry about taking care of their business, here. However, Im betting Washington will not be so willing a participant in letting the Eagles get a free pass in their home finale and will cherish the opportunity to play spoilers vs the defending Super Bowl champs. . The Eagles have struggled as visitors this season overall as they are just 3-4 on the road, with the average point differential clicking in at -3.2. Eagles 23.1 Opp 26.3. Im recommending we go on the take .
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Eagles are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
WASHINGTON is 17-3 ATS L/20 versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6 or less yards/play in the second half of the season.
WASHINGTON is 22-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
Play on the Washington Redskins to cover
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||31-38||Win||100||85 h 45 m||Show|
Its become obvious that KC is a one dimensional team, with an explosive offence and a atrocious porous defence, that is worse than horrible vs opposing ground games allowing 5 ypc. on average. Thats not a good omen against the Seattle team that can run the ball well. The Chiefs are currently down trending after three straight losses including a heart breaking 27-26 defeat to the LA Chargers last Monday night in the final play of the game and don't look like viable favs here in an emotional letdown own spot . But hey the public money loves Patrick Mahomes, and in some ways I can't blame them, as he is entertaining as heck to watch. But from an imperial standpoint , KC is like a big heavy weight puncher looking for the KO, always leaving them selves open for counter punches and in turn getting knocked out themselves. Thats why Carroll the ultimate tactician Im betting will take the Chiefs apart little by little here this Sunday evening and then deliver big blows .
Bottom line here Win or lose taking the points here is just the right thing to do , especially since standing in the line with square bettors is not an appetizing prospect.
Meanwhile, Seattle is a side. that looks much more balanced and a side that plays their best football at home and better prepared ready to bounce back off a hard fought 26-23 loss to a SF team that was hell bent on taking them down in revenge mode. Note: Underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are good long term bets going 38-13 ATS L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion for bettors on the blind. Pete Carroll is also 11-0 SU when coming off a SU favorite loss and the Seahawks are powerful 11-1 SU after batting with the Forty Niners, including 5-0 SUATS at home, and 5-1 ATS as a home dog behind QB Russell Wilson.
SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS L/9 in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. Carroll is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Carroll is 22-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
Seattle to cover
|12-23-18||Bengals +9 v. Browns||18-26||Win||100||98 h 37 m||Show|
Cleveland is up trending but now they're suddenly a favourite of more than TD against a long time division rival. In my humble opinion, Im betting we have a over reaction to their recent 4-1 SU/ATS run. It is definitely some tasty bait for a willing public to bite and bet into. At the time of this analysis, a great deal of square dollars and tickets were backing them this week according to data. Im not saying the sharp money is always right, but more often than not, that's the case , and in this situation I have no problem fading the public. It must be noted that the last time the Browns were more than 7 point fav was back in the 2010 and that game they barely got by the Panthers by 1 point. Hey , I know the Browns are looking good behind emerging star QB Baker Mayfield, and I also know the Bengals have struggled for most of this season, however, this is a rivalry game and Im betting the Bengals with momentum off a lopsided win last week, won't be giving the Browns a free pass here, and will primed to compete in a revenge scenario for a loss they suffered to them earlier this season, which snapped a 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.
NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 4-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cincinnati to cover
|12-23-18||Texans +2.5 v. Eagles||30-32||Win||100||77 h 50 m||Show|
The current No. 2 seeds form the AFC, the Houston Texans take on a Eagles team off a big time win vs the LA Rams on the road last week. Nick Foles came off the bench for the defending champs and replaced Wentz, and looked good in the process. But Im betting he will have a hard time replicating that kind of effort here vs a very tough Texans D. It must be noted that Defending Super Bowl champions as home favorites when coming off a SU underdog win, are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS from Game Fifteen out.
The Texans if they can secure wins here in the last two weeks of the season, can get a bye, so they will be primed to play, and will not give the Eagles a free ride .
NFL Road teams (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Texans to cover
|12-23-18||Bucs +8 v. Cowboys||20-27||Win||100||76 h 29 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys, were smashed last week by a 23-0 count vs Indianapolis which is not a good omen here as they are just 1-17 ATS L/18 as home favorites when coming off a SUATS loss. I know the Boyz are loved by the public, but because of that this line is slightly bloated giving us value with a young group that has in the recent past played very well against team like Dallas that can run the ball. Note: TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I know the Bucs do not inspire bettors, but they have been competitive of late and have only failed to cover 1 of their L/5 games. With that said, lets take the points here this Sunday with the visitors.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 45-15 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tampa Bay to cover
|12-23-18||Jaguars +4.5 v. Dolphins||17-7||Win||100||72 h 58 m||Show|
Dolphins are a team that are extremely inconsistent and own a -79 scoring diff margin on the season and were smashed last week in a start to finish demolishing by the Vikings losing by more than 3 TDs. Note:The Dolphins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a home favorite after a loss in which they never led and are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Meanwhile, I know Jacksonville does not inspire bettors, because of their ugly 4-10 record, but their every bit as good as Miami and have a better D and overall have a 64 point positive diff over the Fins and can't be underestimated here as many of the players on the Jags sending a shakeup in the upcoming off season need to sharpen their numbers and stats in preparation for their proverbial judgement day. Only once in their L/6 games have the Jags lost by more than 4 points and Im betting they stay in the range here today and get the cover.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games and is 9-25 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.MIAMI is 47-69 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
Play on Jacksonville to cover
|12-23-18||Vikings v. Lions +7||27-9||Loss||-140||69 h 53 m||Show|
The Vikings looked good last week in a big win , but I just dont believe you can trust QB Cousins-of the Vikings to be consistent or to even have good back to back games. . Minnesota is also 0-12 ATS as a favorite in Last Road Games against below .500 competition. Meanwhile, Motown despite of a ugly 5-9 record, have only lost by more than 7 points just once in their 6 games, and are more than capable of being competitive again here this Sunday.Vikings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
The Lions are 6-0 ATS L/6, off a loss as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which happened last week.
Play on the Detroit Lions to cover
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||12-9||Win||100||83 h 23 m||Show|
The Saints came from behind for a win last week vs TB, to clinch their division title, and will now be in a letdown spot. With all the hard fought games that the Saints have won lately, and their overall output not looking as consistent as did earlier in the season, as scouting staffs start to figure out their offence, they don't look like viable favs here on the road in Carolina . I know the Panthers may not inspire bettors but Ron Rivera's team that has out yarded 4 of their L/5 foes despite of finding way to lose all 5 tilts. The Panthers are also 11-0 ATS L/11 covering by more than 15 ppg, as a dog off a road loss where they failed to cover. The Panthers are also 8-0 ATS as a dog after they made at least 5 third downs last game. HC Ron Rivera is 8-1 ATS during December in games when going against opponents coming off a SUATS win, going 8-1 SUATS in his career.
CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season. HC Payton is 3-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers UNDER 50||12-9||Win||100||14 h 57 m||Show|
The Saints clinched a division title last week, and Im betting will now be in a letdown situation that will see their attack muted. Meanwhile, I expect Carolina to play a more grinding clock consuming style of football in an attempt to slow and take the flow away from what has been a dynamic offence this season. This combination of projected occurrences Im also betting will be responsible for a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.
CAROLINA is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games with a combined average of 41.3 ppg going on he board. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.1 ppg.
Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 road games.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games in Week 15.Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in December.Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.
NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - after a 2 game road trip, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 61-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-16-18||Eagles +11.5 v. Rams||30-23||Win||100||60 h 13 m||Show|
This must be very humiliating for a NFL championship team like the Philadelphia Eagles to be DD underdogs to a LA Rams team that despite of being explosive and respected by the public and pundits a like has still not won anything. Im betting the Eagles are pumped to prove their detractors wrong and to finally show us what made them champs last season, vs a team that already has a play off spot marked on the calendars and have little left to play for and just want to stay healthy . With that said, it must be noted that defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0 ATS since 1980 as underdogs of more than 9 points and Im betting they will be 4-0 ATS when this final whistle blows here tonight.
Injury update: Wentz is a not a 100% go here this week and if he does not play, the Eagles will go with Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory last season. So either way this game remains a play on situation for the Eagles.
NFLRoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December game are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|12-16-18||Patriots -1.5 v. Steelers||10-17||Loss||-115||96 h 7 m||Show|
New England enters this tilt against struggling Pittsburgh behind future HOF QB Tom Brady off a loss vs the Dolphins last time out (34-33), as their bad luck vs them was extended thanks to a freak play that saw the Dolphins win on the last play of the game . The Pats are now just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when Brady plays the Fins in Miami .There is a silver lining however, here, as Brady is 25-2 SU overall away during the final month of the season, and when going against a below .600 team that does not include the Dolphins he is a perfect 17-0 SU.New England is also 23-5 SU off a loss since 2010, including 15-3 SUATS away. With Pittsburghs Big Ben Rothlisberger not completely 100% healthy and showing signs of his advanced age, and the beatings he has taken in his career the Steelers don't look like solid options here.
Belichick is 7-0 ATS L/7 off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons
NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-7 ATS L/35 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the New England Patriots to cover
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||23-26||Win||100||81 h 44 m||Show|
San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but have been competitive at home lately , beating Denver last week, and prior to that pounding Oakland 34-3 and then losing a heart breaker to the up trending NY Giants 27-23. Two weeks ago they were annihilated on the scoreboard 43-16 by the team their hosting today the Seahawks back in Seattle . Note: Seahawks were however outgunned by 127 yards in that above mentioned tilt so the score was not indicative of the play, and as a matter of fact the Seahawks have managed Ws of late despite of being out yarded in 3 straight tilts. So Pete Carrolls Seabirds are performing optimally behind a Las Vegas style smoke and mirrors magic show and are not solid road favs here despite of the all the accolades their getting. With revenge on board I now expect the 49ers to make a game of this and get us the cover, vs a side that in my humble opinion is a over rated public favorite.
NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 ATS L/35 seasons for a 69% long term conversion rate for bettors.
Play on SF 49ers to cover
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||100 h 25 m||Show|
The Cowboys are red hot right now and have won and covered 5 straight, but they are in an emotional letdown spot after a hard fought OT victory vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last time out. and susceptible to being flat in an unfriendly environment. Thats not a good omen for the Boyz chances this week as NFL teams coming off a SUATS OT victory are just 13-31-1 ATS the last four seasons, including 6-23 SUATS when they're not the favorite. Furthermore, Indy QB Andrew Luck is a money QB and owns a 13-4 ATS career mark at home in games against foes with a better record, The Colts are no pushovers and have won 6 of their L/7 and deserve to be favoured in this tilt against Americas team , as they are one of only three teams to rank in the Top 10 in both total offence and total defence.
DALLAS is 14-30 ATS L/44 in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 game.
NFL Home favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants OVER 43.5||17-0||Loss||-104||52 h 27 m||Show|
The NY Giants offence is clicking on all cylinders and are off a 40-16 win vs the Redskins last time out. Look for a two pronged attack behind a talented receiving core, and the running game of future star RB Saquan Barkley to force the ultra conservative Titans into opening up this week behind the very capable QB Mariotta. . Note Barkley became the first Giants running back to rush for 1,000 yards since Ahmad Bradshaw in 2012 and the first rookie in franchise history to accomplish the feat. The Giants are 13-0 OVER at home off a six-plus point victory in which fewer than 30 percent of their first downs were from third down, as long as the OU line is less than 50 points. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE/NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games are 28-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants||17-0||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
The Tennessee Titans must win their final three games to have a chance at the AFC's final wild-card spot, starting Sunday on the road against the New York Giants. Needless to say the Titans will be aggressive and hell bent on staying alive here vs the Giants today. I know the Omen have been playing well and have won 2 straight, but against a desperate opponent with the backs up against the wall Im betting they 're in trouble today.
NY GIANTS are 7-20 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).
Injury update: NYG Odell Beckham Jr is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Tennessee ( Quad ).
NFLHome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover
|12-15-18||Texans v. Jets +7||29-22||Push||0||47 h 41 m||Show|
The Texans were on a 9 game win streak heading into last week, and then lost . NFL teams that have won 9 in row in the past and had their win streak abruptly end have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 followups. I know the Jets do not inspire bettors, but with QB Sam Darnold healthy again, and off a win last week, I expect a confident top tier effort from home team today.
Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
exans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 15.Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS L/30in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 350or more yards/game in the second half of the season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
The underdog has covered the L/4 meetings. NYJ are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54||29-28||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
Game time temp is expected be a frigid 39 degrees this Thursday night in KC with moderate wind that will go across the field and could easily effect the fluidity of this game. The visiting Chargers Im betting will very vigilant and conservative in their approach vs an explosive KC team here this Thursday night. QUOTE: "I think our guys have to be in tune for (big plays)," Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "Because every play you have to be ready because it could be the one." END QUOTE: The Chargers learned alot about KCs offence in a. 38-28 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season, and will be better prepared this time around Mahomes and company down. Note: Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is well aware of Mahomes' ability. Both of them went to Texas Tech, and Lynn said he had many conversations with former Red Raiders coach Kliff Kingsbury about the 23-year-old. With that said, Im betting we get a much more muted total score than the public might anticipate.
LA CHARGERS is 10-1 UNDER vs. sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.2 ppg going on the board.The Chargers have gone under 8 straight times as a dog off a home game in which they had zero turnovers.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.9 ppg going on the board.
The Chiefs are 0-12 UNDER since 2016 at home off a win in which they outgained their opponent.KANSAS CITY is 9-0 UNDER in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored and is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg.
The Chiefs have gone UNDER 16 straight times as a home favorite after they had at least 3 more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average last game with the combined average score of 35.2 ppg scored, the highest combined score clicked in at 53, and the lowest at 16 points.
NFL Road teams against the total (LA CHARGERS) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorites are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5||7-21||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
Seattle has been taking part in some back and forth fairly high scoring affairs of late, but Pete Carrol has voiced concern about his D, and especially about the young secondary, and will be concentrating on making sure break downs are kept under control vs the visiting Vikings tonight. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a defence first team, with a methodical hard nosed old school approach , and should once again be ready to bang and grind tonight in a game that I have pegged to stay under the total. The overall assessment comes from my own power rankings system that uses a system vs system projections. Those estimations points to a combined score that hits in the low 40s ,thus giving us value on the offered number.
Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 Monday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.SEATTLE is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average score of 28.8 ppg going on the board.
NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 31-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 48-18 UNDER L/35 seasons 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +6||14-20||Win||100||128 h 23 m||Show|
The Broncos at press time of this recommended investment option are 6-point favorites on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The line was bet up squarely from 3.5 on the opener, by public money, but after the rapid upswing in that movement ,sharp bettors came in with their money on the home underdog and rightly so based on line value alone. Despite of the Broncos current 3-0 run and the Niners dismal back to back blowout losses at the hands of Seattle 43-16 last week and TB the week before 27-9 I still believe that the Niners can bounce back here at home or at least be very competitive. In the 49ers L/2 home efforts before the above mentioned road fiascos they beat up an up-trending Oakland side 34-3 and stayed very close vs a better than advertised NY Giants group 27-23. With that said , Im betting on the disrespected home dog, to stand tall here and get us the cover behind the arm of a improving QB Mullens who has completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns, and has also posted a 91.5 passer rating so far this season and must not be underestimated. I am also betting on a SF side that was ranked 10th vs the run before last Sundays tilt vs the Seahawks to rebound this week, and slow the Broncos key mode of moving the chains running back Phillip Lindsay,
Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 14.Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
Play on the 49ers to cover
|12-09-18||Panthers -1 v. Browns||20-26||Loss||-115||95 h 40 m||Show|
Carolina has lost 4 straight games despite of winning the stats battles in the L/3 tilts and are now .500 on the season and desperately need a win here this week to have hopes of being in the NFL playoff picture. This week I expect the Panthers get what they so desperately want, vs a Cleveland team that despite showing promise, are being out gained -63 YPG during the 2nd half of the season behind a 30th ranked defense . note: HC Ron Rivera is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS career mark during the final four games of the season when coming off a loss . Rivera is also 8-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of CAROLINA.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 5-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Carolina to cover
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||24-27||Win||100||73 h 19 m||Show|
The KC Chiefs are explosive offensively but they have really struggled on D ranking 2nd to last last in the league . Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens own the best defense in the league and a viable enough offence to put a boat load full of points on the board vs this type of porous side. It must also be noted that the Ravens are strong 12-0 ATS L/12 as a underdog on a natural surface when they are playing a team with a better record than them and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs here. Baltimore is also 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Chiefs are fun to watch but they have some short comings, and as public favs look week in this spot. Remember despite of 10-2 this season, 5 wins have come vs dregs like Browns,, Bengals, , Raiders ,Cardinals and 49ers.
Baltimore has won their L/3 visits to KC and get the nod here again.
Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover
|12-09-18||Panthers v. Browns UNDER 47.5||20-26||Win||100||73 h 37 m||Show|
The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The Browns are also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.
Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored.
CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers OVER 50||20-34||Win||100||52 h 22 m||Show|
These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.
GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined (67.3 ppg ) go on the board.
|12-09-18||Saints v. Bucs +10||28-14||Loss||-105||4 h 46 m||Show|
The public is all over the Saints here this week against the lowly Bucs. But it must be noted from a long term historical trends perspective this type of fav bet is not a very good one as NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game , which happened last time out, are just 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that the Saints are just 3-4 in the stats battles in their L/7 and off a ugly loss to Dallas last week, Im betting we a have a public favourite that Im betting won't live up to expectations here on the road this week in TB a place where Drew Brees and company have lost their last two trips.
HC Payton is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Bucks are 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3.
Take the points with the TB Bucs
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -4||9-30||Win||100||35 h 20 m||Show|
Jacksonville is off a 6-0 win vs Indianapolis last time out at home. But whats obvious is that just can't move the chains regularly or put TDs on the board, averaging just 16.9 ppg on the season and with Cody Kessler under centre I doubt if things get much better vs the Titans. Also despite of the Jaguars exhibiting great D, at home this season, on the road they have proven to have a gridiron split personality allowing 27+ ppg. Meanwhile, the Titans are also off a win taking out the Jets 26-22 in come from behind fashion, which will have them exuding confidence here this Thursday night.
The Jags are 1-4 ATS L/5 Thursdays when taking points.Thursday night NFL home teams have won 12 straight times. Titans are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.
Note:The Jags are 0-12 SU/ATS as underdogs during the regular season when coming off a SU underdog win and facing a opposition coming off a victory.
Play on Tennessee to cover
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles -6||13-28||Win||100||80 h 54 m||Show|
Redskins enter this game have lost the stats battles in 4 straight games and enter this game with backup QB Colt McCoy . McCoy is just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in division games in his NFL career..
Last week the Eagles showed their metal with a come from behind win vs the Giants , and will now use the momentum of that win to get the job done here again this Monday.
QUOTE: "This was a big game for us," Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz said. "Obviously in terms of the division standings and all that fun stuff, but really mentally to show the resilience that we did. To get down early like we did, then to battle back, just really builds a lot of confidence -- to come from behind and get it done I think will speak volumes about our confidence going forward." END QUOTE:
Meanwhile, Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a very dependable 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points and gets my support here as his team plays with sense of urgency.
Washington has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 Monday nighters.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||33-30||Loss||-120||56 h 48 m||Show|
The Chargers are hot , as is evident by their 6-1 winning run and their QB Phillip Rivers is off a record setting game last time out. But now Im betting on regression to rear its ugly head, for Rivers, and the Chargers to finally meet their match. It must be noted that all but one of their wins this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record. The one exception was the victory over Seattle, which is barely over .500 at 6-5.
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots UNDER 49.5||10-24||Win||100||45 h 41 m||Show|
The Minnesota Vikings enter this game ranked No. 10 in defence and up trending as they have allowed 255 YPG and an average of just 17 ppg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Meanwhile, New England’s ranks No. 11 ranked defence has allowed only 17.5 PPG in their last four games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games in December.Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games on fieldturf.
The L/6 meetings in this series have seen average of 39.5 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in December games are 41-16 UNDERL/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a 2 game road trip, in December games are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders +15.5||40-33||Win||100||69 h 12 m||Show|
Mahomes and the Chiefs have not played since taking part in a back and forth , 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 19. Mahomes now with a week off might have take some time to get this high octane offence back working at optimal levels. Also strictly from an eye test, Oakland looks to be gaining some confidence, and QB Carr has suddenly learned to take care of the ball much better and has not given up an interception in 6 games to go along with a a high percentage completion rate on mostly short passes. The kind of football the Raiders are playing gives them high probability to survive what coming their wayand Im betting thats what they find a way to do here at home this week in what I project as cover performance.
The explosive Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games against AFC West opponents with their only loss coming last year at Oakland. Could a repeat upset happen, probably not, but taking the 15 points here is a viable investment option.
KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12 after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.
Raiders HC Gruden is 19-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached in his career.
NFL team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Raiders to cover
|12-02-18||Jets +9.5 v. Titans||22-26||Win||100||69 h 50 m||Show|
The Titans are off a ugly loss on Monday night football, to the Texans and now demoralized as their play off hopes start to fade. Now in an emotional letdown situation on short rest, the Titans are far from being solid TD + favs against any team in this league including the lowly NY Jets. Note: The Titans are 1-6 ATS L/7 off a Monday nighter, and just 2-8 ATS L/10 in this series.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.
NFL Home teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|12-02-18||Bills +4 v. Dolphins||17-21||Push||0||73 h 51 m||Show|
Miami losers of 4 of their L/5 have looked in-cohesive and inconsistent this season, taking part in some ugly affairs and choking in others at key junctures, and have also come out completely flat on other occasions. Meanwhile, Buffalo is up trending after two straight wins and must be respected here as underdogs vs a Fins team that just does not look confident right now.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 4.75 or less yards/play in the second half of the season.The Dolphins are 0-17 ATS ( L/17 as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Which happened last week at Indianapolis in a loss.
The Buffalo Bills are 15-2 ATS as road dogs of 3 or more points against opp coming off consecutive losses, including 7-0 ATS in division tilts.
NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are just 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Buffalo to cover
|12-02-18||Bears v. Giants +4||27-30||Win||100||51 h 14 m||Show|
Chicago's QB Mitchell Trubisky is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs NY Giants ( Shoulder )which in my opinion gives the Giants enough edge on their own field to get us the cover. as Daniels starts instead This is the Bears 2nd straight road game and its never easy winning two straight games on the road in this league, even for a teams deemed hot like the Bears. Previous to last week the Giants had won two straight and than had the Eagles on the ropes as they took a 19-3 lead. Then instead of using emerging super star RB Saquon Barkely to slow the game down, the Gemn did the opposite . hmmm and blew the game . Anyway, now Im betting the Gmen bounce back, behind the arm of a QB that in Eli Manning that has a history of top tier efforts at home late in the season, as is evident by a 12-3-1 ATS record in December at home when coming off a loss and 7-0 ATS against opponent like Chicago coming off consecutive wins. Look for his side kick Sqauon Barkley to help keep the option wide open for Manning in what could be a SU upset for the home dog, but more importantly a cover .
CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Play on the NY Giants to cover
|12-02-18||Colts v. Jaguars +5||0-6||Win||100||18 h 58 m||Show|
Jacksonville despite of their 7 game losing streak, are still a team that must be respected, behind what must be considered a solid defence allowing an average of just 16.2 ppg on the season as hosts. They have lost their L/3 games by 4 points or less, and getting points is a viable option , vs a Indianapolis team that despite of a current 5 game win streak has lost 3 of their 5 road games this season. Look for Jags QB Kody Kessler who is starting in place of Bortles, to give his team a spark and a cover.
Marrone is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of JACKSONVILLE and s 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Jacksonville to cover
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||17-34||Loss||-105||14 h 57 m||Show|
Texas enters this tilt vs Tennessee having won 7 straight games following a 0-3 start. The wins were not that impressive overall and most were against average to sub par average teams with a total combined record of 22-20 record and they won 4 of those games by 3 points or less .
Tonight Im betting Tennessee’s 9th ranked defense to go Helmut to helmet with Houston’s strong D and make this a hard fought tilt. With Tennessee's QB Marcus Mariota expected to play the Titans are a solid side option , as he is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in division games when his team is coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. Note: NFL Road teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, in November games are good long term bets against the spread going 179-117 ATS L/35 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS after a win by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons.
The Titans are also 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on Monday nights.
Take the point with Tennessee to cover
|11-25-18||Packers v. Vikings OVER 47.5||17-24||Loss||-110||30 h 53 m||Show|
Minnesota must go to the pass game alot as their run game ranks 31st in the league in rushing, averaging 84.7 yards per game. It must noted that GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with an average of 51.3 ppg scored. on the flip side the Vikings secondary has been struggling, which is a sign of a high scoring tilt as GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored. Finally GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons., with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board.
|11-25-18||Steelers v. Broncos +3||17-24||Win||105||28 h 4 m||Show|
The Steelers and an emotional let down situation coming off a revengeful win vs Jacksonville last out . With that in mind and the fact that he Steelers have not been good bets vs AFC teams like Denver as is evident by struggling in these confrontations recording a 3-11 SU record and a equally ugly 2-12 ATS mark as road favs L/39 seasons, including 0-9 ATS when favoured by more than 3 points.Meanwhile, the Broncos are up-trending as they have taken the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 and cashed in four of those tilts. Denver has also been cash in the bank at home as home dog cashing 9 of their L/10 vs above.500 sides.
Long term DENVER is 29-15 ATS L/44 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season . Denver is 6-2 SU L/8 at home this series.
The Steelers are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a road favorite on natural surface off a win.
Play on Denver to cover
|11-25-18||Patriots v. Jets +10.5||27-13||Loss||-135||145 h 44 m||Show|
These long time rivals the New England Patriots and NY Jets go head to head this Thanks giving weekend. The early public money is as expected all over the Pats.While sharp money goes down on the Jets. I know this is contrarian action, as many expect the Pats to be primed for redemption after suffering a DD loss last time , but Im betting if the Pats get by a desperate Jets team that has lost 4 straight, it wont come by more than this offered line. The last two meetings here in NY have both been won by the Pats, but both were decided by TD or less. Both times the Pats were 9 to 10 point chalk, and both times the public smashed their money down on them and both times they lost, and now the three and out rule is in effect. Be brave, take the Jets as they make it their mission to get back their long lost respect.
The Jets have historically been a good bet off a home defeat and than following up as the host team. NY JETS are 21-6 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|11-25-18||Jaguars v. Bills +3||21-24||Win||105||77 h 26 m||Show|
Both these teams have trouble scoring, and both have top tier defences ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league. To back a road favorite in my opinion, that team must have the ability to get the ball into the end zone consistently , something the Jags are not doing. I know Buffalo does not inspire bettors, but after scoring 41 points last time out before their bye and now on fresh legs the Bills are a better bet than most might care to believe. Especially taking on an emotionally drained side, that was off a must win situation last week vs the Steelers and then blew it, by not showing up in the 2nd half after a 16-0 lead . Its interesting to note that the Jaguars are 0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite off a game as a dog are 0-6 ATS off a game as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which was the case last week in a hurtful 20-16 loss to the Steelers after taking a a DD lead.
Play on Buffalo Bills to cover
|11-25-18||49ers +3 v. Bucs||9-27||Loss||-130||29 h 3 m||Show|
The 49ers are fresh and off a bye week, and before the break they loss a close one to the Giants 27-23 on Monday Night even though they out gained them by 374 to 277 yards. The Niners according to my power rankings also despite of a negative record are up trending, and are viable underdogs here vs a Tampa Bay team, that despite of moving the chains with regularity , are just 1-7 in their L/8 games with a 2-27 negative turnover ratio . The Bucs own an atrocious D, and can't hold onto the ball, and are fade material this Sunday.
|11-25-18||Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48.5||22-25||Win||100||4 h 7 m||Show|
Giants rookie running back Saquon Barkley had a big day vs the Eagles with 130 yards on the ground and 99 yards receiving in the first meeting this season, and I now expect the GMen to go back to what worked in the first time these teams met and go to the ground attack constantly here today which will eat time on the clock. Yes, last week Eli Manning had a big day, but he is one of footballs most inconsistent QBs, and don't be surprised if struggles this week, and leans on Barkley to get take the workload as the game progresses. I know the Eagles secondary is banged up, but many think some of the young gun CBs waiting on the sidelines must not be underestimated. Meanwhile, Philadelphia , has had enormous problems scoring this season, averaging just 20.5 ppg, and after last weeks defensive catastrophe vs the Saints will also be primed to play better D. The above combinations Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total.
The Giants have gone under 24 straight times with more than 3 days rest when they are off a home game in which they had at least ten more running plays than their season-to-date average and they did not lose by a field goal or more with the combined average score clicking in at 29.8 ppg with no combined score eclipsing the 45 point plateau.
NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 14 or more points are 25-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-22-18||Falcons v. Saints OVER 60||17-31||Loss||-105||10 h 23 m||Show|
No one in this league can stop the Saints offence, and the only way your going to beat them is by keeping up offensively. Look for. less than conservative effort from the Flacons as they go all out in an attempt to keep pace here tonight. It must be noted that NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57 or more points have gone 12-1-1 to the OVER ... and a 9-0 100% OVER when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight . NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992 with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored.Payton is 7-0 OVER after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored. Payton is 6-0 OVER in home games vs. struggling defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average score of 66.4 ppg scored.
New Orleans is red hot averaging 39.4 ppg at home, and will put at least that on the board today in a game that might resemble the one these teams played earlier this season when the Saints beat Atlanta 43-37 in overtime in Week 3.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (New Orleans/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams 1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games are 44-16 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +3.5||23-16||Loss||-115||28 h 36 m||Show|
Chicago looked sky high and exerted alot of energy in holding off the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday night in a 25-20 win. Now in an emotional letdown situation Im expecting they come here susceptible to being upset by the Detroit Lions on this day of giving Thanks. The Lions might not inspire bettors, but they are 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 on Thanks Giving, and have won the L/2 meetings here in Motown. CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games and s 1-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons and also 4-13 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 43-80 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62||51-54||Win||100||33 h 14 m||Show|
The NFL has decided to move Monday night's showdown between the 9-1 Chiefs and Rams from Mexico City to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum because of poor field conditions at Estadio Azteca, it was announced Tuesday.
This line moved off the opening 63 number. Since the 2000 campaign season, NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57 or more points have gone 11-1-1 to the OVER ... and a 8-0 100% OVER when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight . Both these teams can score in bunches and both have shown inability to be inconsistent defensively which Im betting results in a high scoring affair.
The Chiefs' star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, leads the league in touchdown passes (31) and passing yards per game and is second in passer rating, behind only New Orleans' Drew Brees. Meanwhile, the Rams are right behind the Chiefs in scoring, averaging 33.5 points per game, and third-year quarterback Jared Goff is third in the league in touchdown passes with 22 and fifth in both passing yards per game and passer rating.
The Chiefs rank 29th in total defense allowing 24.0 points per game.The Rams are 20th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, giving up 23.1 points per contest. Tonight Im expecting both to allow a TD or more above their offensive averages which will create a score that eclipses to this number.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -3||51-54||Push||0||14 h 52 m||Show|
According to my power rankings and head to head systems analysis, the Rams matchup very well against the KC Chiefs and in a game that Im betting will see a lot of TDs, laying a FG is not asking to much and is actually a viable wagering option. Especially with this game moved to LA. It must be noted that when this tilt was scheduled to be played in Mexico City the Rams were 2.5 point chalk , so this line considering the new venue very much favors the Rams and their betting backers.
|11-18-18||Vikings +3 v. Bears||20-25||Loss||-135||83 h 46 m||Show|
The Bears are leading in the division, just ahead of the Vikings , which means this game is for first place. This tilt should feature play off intensity which will favour the more experienced big game team, which is the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have had a fine season thus far, but this matchup is a step up in class. When the chips are down , Ill back the smash mouth Vikings getting points. Yes, da Bears looked good last week, against the downtrodden Lions but in the past CHICAGO has been a bad bet in the followup going 0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. I personally believe everyone is getting a little bit ahead of themselves with backing Chicago as possible top tier team going forward ,and tonight I expect that when the final whistle blows that some pundits time to pause and rethink their positions. Hey folks Im not knocking the Bears, and in the not so distant future, might actually ending up being as good as the headlines might indicate , However, Im just saying there is value taking the under rated Vikings in this spot as dogs. Note: Vikes HC Mike Zimmer is 13-1-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit win.
Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover
|11-18-18||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-125||81 h 51 m||Show|
New Orleans is nightmare for defensive co-orridnators to deal with, but Philadelphia coaching staff, are extremely capable as they have proven in the recent past . The Saints despite of all the accolades they are getting are weak favs here and have been in the past when irrational exuberance has been prevalent as is evident by their 0-8 ATS L/8 record as a favorite of at least eight points . New Orleans recent top tier performances including last weeks domination against Cincinnati, 51-14 has everyone and his dog, singing the praises of Drew Bree's and company. Last week the Saints accumulated a ungodly 509 of offense in their victory but in the past the Saints have been a bad bet in the followup going just 0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road favorite where they had at least 400 yards of total offense . The Saints also dominated time of possession (39:46) but once again have failed in their followup going 0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road chalk when they had at least 32 minutes time of possession. Also it must be noted that Defending Super Bowl Champions like the Eagles are 13-1 ATS as road dogs versus .825 + opposition including 7-0 SUATS since 2000.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 roles rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 25-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|11-18-18||Broncos v. Chargers OVER 46||23-22||Loss||-110||78 h 16 m||Show|
Denver will be fresh as they come off a bye week, and cannot be conservative in their approach against a Chargers team that can be offensively explosive. The Broncos Im betting will push the action and San Diego will respond in kind and push back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that eclipses this very beatable number. Note: NFL teams like Denver coming off their Bye Week have gone over in 10 of 12 qualifying games so far in the 2018 campaign in Conference play.
Last time out Denver took part in a heart breaking 19-17 loss to the Texans a game where they missed two FGs, but in that game the Broncos threw for 273 yards in the loss and are capable of moving the ball through the air which is important for us looking for an OVER ticket to cash. The Broncos have now gone OVER 7 straight times as a dog coming off a home game where they threw for at least 250 yards. Denver is 8-1 OVER in road games vs .700 or better opposition .
Play on the OVER
|11-18-18||Panthers -3.5 v. Lions||19-20||Loss||-110||78 h 37 m||Show|
Carolina got embarrassed last Thursday in a 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh and will be primed for bounce back win here vs slumping Lions team that is on a current 3-game SUATS losing streak. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed, especially the Panthers..With that said, Im betting on Carolina a side that is 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS in road games when coming off a double-digit loss and taking on a sub .500 opponent to be ready to deliver themselves redemption in. a big way here today. The Panthers are also bankroll fattening 8-1 ATS in tilts after giving up 40 or more points .
HC Rivera is 22-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of CAROLINA.
Detroit is an nasty 0-12 ATS as a underdog on artificial turf when they are off a road loss by more than a TD and they are facing a team that has committed an average of less than 1.5 turnovers per game season-to-date. DETROIT is 2-15 ATS L/17 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season.
Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||23 h 58 m||Show|
Last week, the Tennessee Titans ended their seven-game losing streak against Tom Brady with a surprising and convincing 34-10 victory over the New England Patriots. On Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Titans will not be so lucky this week ( pardon the pun) vs another top tier quarterback when they face the Colts. The Titans are 0-9 all time against Andrew Luck who was key in a win vs the Jags last week.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and is 1-9 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Indianapolis to cover
|11-18-18||Steelers v. Jaguars +6||20-16||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
The Jaguars in a must win situation today have really struggled of late, but they actually matchup well vs the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Steelers have won five consecutive games while the Jaguars have lost five in a row.I know both teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but the Jags desperation and the type of football Im confident the Jags can play when cornered will challenge the Steelers this Sunday. I expect the Jaguars No. 2 overall defense and No. 1 ranked pass D to be the difference maker in what will be a hard fought game.
Steelers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Jacksonville.Underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
NFL team (JACKSONVILLE) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover
|11-18-18||Cowboys v. Falcons UNDER 50||22-19||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
The Falcons 4-5 on the season have the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL after getting mauled by the Steelers last week for 51 points. After that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to play some hard core physical defence this week vs the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas 4-5 a team that has has allowed 19 ppg overall on D, and has averaged just 16.4 ppg on the road this season, will play a methodical game, which Im betting results in a score that stays on the low side of the Total.
DALLAS in their L/6 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game.
DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.
DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992
Quinn is 9-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.Garrett is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival as the coach of DALLAS.
Under is 8-0 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in Week 11.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 vs. NFC.Under is 20-6 in Cowboys last 26 road games.Under is 13-5 in Cowboys last 18 games overall.Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 22-9 in Falcons last 31 games in November.Under is 14-6 in Falcons last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 13-6-1 in Falcons last 20 games in Week 11.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.) are 36-12 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-11-18||Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5||27-20||Loss||-110||58 h 46 m||Show|
The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season. This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night.
Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights .
Philly is 0-3 UNDER L/3 vs Dallas.
The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
|11-11-18||Chargers v. Raiders +11||20-6||Loss||-128||76 h 17 m||Show|
The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss, 34-3 vs the 49ers last week and have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just 0-10 ATS as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week. The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL home Teams which are more than 7 point dogs are actually long term good bets going 192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books.
Play on the Oakland Raiders
|11-11-18||Lions v. Bears UNDER 44||22-34||Loss||-105||69 h 49 m||Show|
The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined 19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6 on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs.
Im betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
|11-11-18||Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 47||26-29||Loss||-109||52 h 6 m||Show|
The Jaguars are desperate for wins and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots. They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same.
The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts have gone under 8 straight times at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent.
NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg.
NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-11-18||Falcons v. Browns +6.5||16-28||Win||100||48 h 35 m||Show|
Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out. Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games .
Cleveland Browns to cover
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +6||51-14||Loss||-105||21 h 20 m||Show|
The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling back to back games and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points.
The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA.
NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-11-18||Patriots v. Titans +7||10-34||Win||100||16 h 33 m||Show|
The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games.
Play on Tennessee to cover
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||21-52||Win||100||33 h 28 m||Show|
Both these teams are in a big time plus zone for scoring output entering this game. Pittsburgh is ranked No.2 in the league in offensive Red Zone with a 75% TD conversion rate , while Carolina is ranked No.5 with a 72% touch down conversion rate. Carolina has scored 36 and 42 points in their L/2 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. Im betting we don't see many punting opportunities here tonight in a tilt that has. strong possibility of going OVER the number.
Carolina is a 7-0 OVER as non-div dogs 4 or less points and are 4-0 OVER aft score 35+ pts which happened last timeout and 9-1 OVER vs .666 or better foes and have gone OVER in 3 straight Thursday night road tilts.
Steelers are 7-1 OVER as non-division home chalk 5 points or less and 5-1 OVER vs NFC South and 4-1 OVER L5 vs Carolina.
The Steelers have gone OVER 14 straight times as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which their turnovers committed decreased by at least two over their previous game .
NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (27 PPG or more) against a below average defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 24-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys OVER 39.5||28-14||Win||100||12 h 26 m||Show|
Both these teams are off bye weeks, and I expect that their freshness will make for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect . I know the Titans offence is stagnant, and that they rely on their defence to try to be competitive, but they have lost three straight and need to be more aggressive offensively if they hope to end their current negative run. Meanwhile, Dallas, has shown glimpses of offensive explosiveness this season, and a few weeks back put 40 points on the board vs what many believe to be a strong Jacksonville defence. My own power rankings and matchup projections points to the Cowboys being able to more than enough damage this week to help drag this game over the low total. Note: DALLAS is 9-1 OVER in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest with a combined average of 50 ppg going on the board.
Monday night games this season have seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg go on the board.
NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half are 36-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in November games are 26-3 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored with the average total listed at 40.
Play on the OVER
|11-04-18||Rams +2 v. Saints||35-45||Loss||-109||76 h 26 m||Show|
The Rams fell behind last week vs Packers but showed us all what they were made of by coming back and winning that game and will now be primed to pull an upset of their own, against what Im betting will be a New Orleans side, in a letdown spot after getting revenge on the Vikings for last years playoff elimination. Despite of their victory last week they were out yarded 423-260 and looked pooched at some points during that game. From a long term betting perspective NFL sides that won their L/game by more than a TD l but were out gained by at least 115 yards are just 50-76-1 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.Until proven wrong Im betting that New Orleans is a little over rated and the Rams a team that must be considered a Super Bowl contender are a great value play taking points.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-35 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992
Note:8-0 NFL teams like the Rams in Game Nine of the season are 17-2 SU since 1980, with none of them getting underdog lines.
Play on the LA Rams to cover
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints OVER 59.5||35-45||Win||100||55 h 23 m||Show|
During the L/18 seasons ,there have been nine tilts with Totals line of 58 or more points They have seen an average of 66.4 ppg scored . None have gone under with one push. I'm betting on current trend continuing, as we see two of the best QBs in football Jared Goff and Drew Bree's do battle with a super star array of explosive NFL talent surrounding them. On the flip side both the rams and the Saints in my humble opinion have over rated defences, and that will be on full display here today. Let the fireworks begin.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average of 63 ppg going on the board. New Orleans 3 home games this Eason have seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5||37-21||Loss||-110||74 h 56 m||Show|
NFL teams like KC laying a TD or more on the road, the UNDER is a strong play going under 19. of the L/20 times dating back 4 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors on the low side of the Total. Meanwhile, the Browns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a TD-plus home dog. The Browns have also gone under in 5 straight at home vs .666 or better opposition. It must be noted that The Browns fired Hue Jackson this week and Defensive-Co ordinator Gregg Williams is at the helm of the team. In Williams L/26 games when he was the Bills HC he went 3-23 UNDER for a 88% conversion rate. He is extremely methodical in his approach, and Im betting against a very explosive Chiefs side he will be even more conservative if thats possible here today. This will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the Total.
NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|11-04-18||Jets +3 v. Dolphins||6-13||Loss||-110||73 h 27 m||Show|
The Jets enter this game with revenge on board for a 20-12 loss to the Dolphins in week 2 as a three-point home dog. But NY lately has been very good to bettors in revenge mode as they cashed 7 straight ATS on a natural surface when they are playing a divisional opponent that they lost to earlier in the season. To put it bluntly , I also don't trust the Fins as home favs against 90% of the teams in this league, and the way their defence is playing I feel they are fade material in this spot. Note: MIAMI is 2-10 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.The Jets have covered 16 of their L/21 visits to South Florida and get the nod again.
Dolphins are also a bankroll dumping 0-15 ATS as a home favorite off a loss when their opponent is playing their second straight road game. The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS L/15 seasons as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|11-04-18||Steelers +3 v. Ravens||23-16||Win||100||52 h 15 m||Show|
The Steelers and Ravens have been going in opposite directions since they met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field. The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-14 and asserted themselves as early favorites to win the AFC North.
|10-29-18||Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44.5||25-6||Win||100||84 h 20 m||Show|
Wow its been a long time since a team was favoured by this much on the road . Actually the Pats were favoured by 13.5 points vs the Jags about 6 seasons ago and that game went under the total by 13 points. . NFL road chalk of a -8 or more points have gone under 18 of the L/19 times this situation has arisen. Buffalo has scored a total of 26 points in their L/3 games, and were shut out in one of them, and seem completely offensively inept. Today against an explosive New England offense I expect the Bills to be extremely methodical in their approach and to try to burn as much clock as possible, thus slowing the Pats attack which will curtail their output in a gem I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total.
Buffalo has gone under 3 straight times at home as a dog of 7 or more points. Buffalo has gone under in 5 straight games overall.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 L/23 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with he combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.
NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, struggling team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 29-6 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings -1||30-20||Loss||-100||80 h 51 m||Show|
I was kind of surprised to see the Vikings as a home underdog. I truly believe no matter what Drew Bree's is doing of late, I just don't see the Saints being a pickem on the road from a matchup perspective vs a Minnesota team that in my opinion has the superior talent and cohesiveness. Winning two games in a row on the road like New Orleans will attempt to do is a difficult thing, and if it were not for the huge horse shoe they have wedged up their proverbial yahoos, they might of lost last week, as the Ravens missed the opportunity to take a game to OT, when their usually reliable stud kicker missed an extra point at the end of the game. Wow. Any how, here we are , and the lines makers have decided while factoring in the revenge play off angle that the Saints should be a favorite. I disagree and will take a contrarian stance and back the home side to come out of this with a win and cover. The both times the Viking splayed the Saints last year they were able to expose their defensive weaknesses' and don't be surprised if they do it again. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover
|10-28-18||Packers +10.5 v. Rams||27-29||Win||100||76 h 28 m||Show|
Super star QB Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense have the guns to score with the Rams making them viable underdogs this spot vs what is arguably an explosive team the LA Rams.
GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 39-23 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. LA RAMS are 4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 vs NFC North teams.
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-15 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover
|10-28-18||Packers v. Rams OVER 56||27-29||Push||0||71 h 47 m||Show|
The Rams can score against any team in this league at will averaging 35.6 ppg at home , and GB just does not have the type of defense that can handle this type of explosive group as they allow an average of 31 ppg on the road. So Im betting the Rams do a lot of offensive damage here today. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers the Packers QB leads a viable offence that can fire back with some weapons of their own and will not be easy pushovers in what Im betting will be all out offensive shootout.
GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with he average combined score clicking in at 58.6 ppg and s 6-0 OVER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with the combined average score coming in at 64.5 ppg. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking at 61 ppg.
Green Bays last game resulted in a high scoring 33-30 conflict vs SF. It must noted that the Cheese machine is 12-0 OVER L/12 off a game as chalk after they scored at least 24 points .
NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.
|10-28-18||Seahawks +3 v. Lions||28-14||Win||100||74 h 59 m||Show|
Bill Carrol has his Seattle Seahawks playing much better than the pundits expected, thanks to a rejuvenated looking defence. On oFfence QB Wilson is also a top tier money maker for his backers going 11-1-1 ATS in his NFL career taking points against opp coming off consecutive victories like the Lions are.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win which was the case a DD victory vs the Miami Dolphins.Detroit is also 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or better record when coming off a double-digit win and taking on an opponent coming off a victory.
NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 17-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover
|10-28-18||Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54||34-37||Win||100||68 h 40 m||Show|
Tampa Bay enters into this game as a team that concentrates almost solely on throwing the ball to move the chains because their inability to run it as is obvious by their 30th overall rank via the ground attack. So today against the Bengals you can bet they will be air it out big time again. Meanwhile, Cincinnati gave up 551 yards of offence last week vs KC in a ugly DD loss, and look ripe to taken advantage of again. Note: The Bengals have gone over 7 straight times at home off a double-digit road defeat when they are taking on a team that is averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game like TB. the flip side, the Buccaneers D, is very porous allowing an average of 32.7 ppg and will Im betting getting trashed in return, which sets up well for a combined score that eclipses this Total. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 54.6 ppg.
NFL team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams ( 27 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-11 OVER L/35 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|10-28-18||Eagles -3 v. Jaguars||24-18||Win||100||71 h 44 m||Show|
The defending Super Bowl champions are off a loss and own a 3-4 record on the season but are a good bet to bounce back here this week , as defending Super bowl Champs are 100-50 SU and 81-65-4 ATS since 1980 off a SU loss as a favorite. Needless to say the Eagles have to now put the pedal to the metal and right their ship quickly , and Im expecting to do so vs a team that is struggling even more then them the Jacksonville Jaguars who have lost three straight.With RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) likely to miss another game, Im betting QB Bortles won't have the support he needs to be competitive this week on this international stage in London ,England.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons which happened in their 20-7 loss vs the Texans last week.The Jaguars are also 0-11 /SU ATS when the line is within a touch down of pick and they are off a game as a chalk in which they had less than 280 passing yards and at least two turnovers with he average margin of defeat coming by two TDs.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -3.5||20-23||Loss||-110||14 h 4 m||Show|
The 1-5 New York Giants enter this Monday night game reeling have lost three games in a row, giving up more than 30 points in all three and offer up an opportunity for the Falcons to notch their second win in a row . During the Gmens three-game losing streak, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, recording three of each. He has been sacked 20 times this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta QB Ryan is picking up the pace of late, as is evident by his 354 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Tampa Bay, which has increased his total to 12 touchdown passes with no picks over the past four games. He must be licking his chops anticipation of facing a team that has only 7 sacks on the season ranking last in the league. Look for Ryan and star Wide Receiver Julio Jones to hookup for mucho yards and TDs this week on their way to a what Im betting will be a convincing win and cover .
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
The Giants are 0-9 /SU ATS failing to cover by an average of more than 10 ppg as a non-divisional dog on Monday night.
Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover
|10-21-18||Rams v. 49ers +10||39-10||Loss||-120||76 h 54 m||Show|
This is a long time rivalry that has seem the 49ers cash 5 straight times. I know the Rams are the better overall team, but Im expecting this to be a lot closer than the lines makers estimate according to my own head to head power ranking stats. It must be noted that perfect 6-0 NFL chalk like the LA Rams are 1-7 ATS in Game Seven of the season over the last nine campaigns.
The Rams are 0-8 ATS off a game as a favorite in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average which happened last week.
LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game .
The Rams are 0-6 ATS on the road facing an opponent that is off two con-secutive losses like SF.
Play on the SF 49ers to cover
|10-21-18||Saints v. Ravens -2.5||24-23||Loss||-115||82 h 51 m||Show|
New Orleans explosive offence will Im betting not be so explosive this week against a staunch Baltimore D off a shutout last time out vs the Tennessee Titans by a 21-0 count. In fact the Ravens D has allowed a total of 40 points in their L/4 games (10 ppg). Ravens are 5-1 SU/ATS L/5 meetings.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS L/27 against AFC North division opponents.NEW ORLEANS is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. HC Payton Payton is 3-12 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games and is 2-9 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games.
NFL Home teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 24-1 SU with the average point differential of 9.4 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover
|10-21-18||Patriots v. Bears +3.5||38-31||Loss||-115||74 h 33 m||Show|
The much improved Chicago Bears go against a New England Pats team that could find themselves in an emotional letdown spot after a behemoth back forth battle with the KC Chiefs last Sunday night that saw them win on a late FG 43-40.
I know Tom Brady and company are explosive offensively but the Bears have held opponents to 19.2 ppg this season and must be respected as home dogs in their current form. I know the Bears last time out, but it must be noted that Chicago is 11-2 ATS at home against AFC East opposition coming off a victory, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss.
Today Im betting the difference maker will come via the Bears ground attack that averaged 4.4 ypc vs a shaky Pats D, that is allowing 4.5 ypc.
CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NFL Underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% for conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Chicago Bears to cover
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs UNDER 50.5||23-26||Win||100||67 h 7 m||Show|
Tampa Bays defence has been purged in back to back games, giving up a total of 80 points ,but the Browns are not the type of team that can take advantage of their wobbly defence. The Browns have scored 18 points or less in 3 of their 6 games, and have averaged 13 ppg in their L/2 trips to the gridiron. On the other side of the ball the Browns are a physical group that are hard to play against and the Bucs Im betting have a hard time doing dome offensive damage here in this spot. I know the Buccaneers have gone over in 5 straight but because of this the total of this tilt is overinflated. It must be noted that teams like the Bucs that have allowed at least 80 combined points their last two games are a long term 28-64-1 UNDER dating back to the 2010 season with the average combined score clicking in 42.5 ppg.
Cleveland was blasted last Tim out by the Chargers,(38-14) but are 12-3 L/15 UNDER off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more. Cleveland is 4-13 UNDER vs NFC South.
The L/4 meetings in this series have seen a combined 29.3 ppg scored on average.
NFL Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games are 7-28 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-21-18||Lions v. Dolphins UNDER 47||32-21||Loss||-114||66 h 33 m||Show|
Osweiler, who completed 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards is the expected starter here again this week for the Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the big numbers because there was huge after the catch numbers posted and that kind of performance and yards activity is truly odd. The Fins surprised the Bears and took a 31-28 win, also thanks to turnovers something this Dolphins teams not really built for over the long haul and Im betting they will fall back down to earth in their followup against the Lions this week. Meanwhile, the Lions are well rested off a bye week and many might expect them to fly out of the gate here, but in the past they have been more methodical and conservative in their road games, and are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a road favorite when the total is more than 43. the Lions are also 0-5 UNDER L/5 after a bye. The Lions also take on a a Dolphins defense that has been effective in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs, something the Lions have excelled at this season.If these results continue to trend this way we have a high probability of wiping a score off the board , which in turn will help keep this total combined score on the low side of the number.
NFL Home teams against the total (MIAMI) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 33-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-21-18||Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5||37-17||Win||100||65 h 14 m||Show|
Minnesota's QB Cousins is ranked fifth in the league in passing, and has 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season. His 71.2 completion percentage is third in the league and he's 10th in passer rating at 102.7. I'm betting he and his Vikings do some extensive damage today vs a NY Jets Defence, that allowed 428 yards off offence in a 42-34 loss to the Colts last week. Meanwhile, the Jets behind the capable arm of former USC QB Darnold and a two pronged running attack of running backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell, who are helping the Jets churn out an average of 130.5 yards rushing will respond in kind and not be easily slowed down. With that said, I expect this total to be eclipsed.
The Vikings are 7-0-1 OVER off a game as a favorite in which they threw at least 10 fewer passes than their season-to-date average which was the case in a 27-17 win vs Arizona last week.
NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 51-19 OVER L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-21-18||Panthers +5.5 v. Eagles||21-17||Win||100||5 h 24 m||Show|
The Panthers are off a dismal game last time out vs the Redskins, but they have shown a lot of inconsistencies over the last couple of seasons despite of being a talented group, and now Im betting they rebound. It must be noted Carolina is a perfect 10-0 ATS since Ron Rivera became their head coach in 2011 as a dog off a SU and ATS loss as a visitor, covering by an average of 16 ppg and 21-3 ATS overall off a road loss. Also in that last game, they got away from their strength which is the run game. But the Panthers have proven resilient after those types of off efforts going a bankroll expanding 15-0 ATS on a natural surface off away loss when their ground attack gained less than 185 yards and they are averaging more than 4.35 yards per rush season-to-date. From. A league wide data base NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 36-12 ATS in their followup rebound since 1983.
Meanwhile, the Eagles despite of winning and playing better of late, are a team that has shown a propensity to fail against teams like Carolina who are struggling defensively at least from a ATS perspective, as they 0-8 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Carolina to cover
|10-21-18||Lions v. Dolphins +3||32-21||Loss||-100||2 h 57 m||Show|
The Dolphins, who are 4-2 and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East, will be hosting a Lions defense that has given up an average of 27.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Which in my humble betting opinion does not make the Lions very reliable road favs in this spot according to statistical algorithms. The key Defensive lapses have come against opposition ground attacks, as the Lions rank 30th against the run, giving up 145.8 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. This Im betting favours Fins running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake who are proving them selves viable cogs in thisDolphin offensive scheme. I know super millionaire QB Matt Stafford is a t the helm of a offence that scores bunches, but Miami is efficient in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs and could easily stop the Lions on key situations as they game progresses and making them a strong choice getting points as home dogs.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 9-26 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.
.Note:The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS SU on a natural surface when they are off a FG-plus win in which they threw at least one interception and they are facing a team that has thrown the ball on 56%-plus of their plays season-to-date.
Play on Miami Dolphins to cover
|10-21-18||Titans v. Chargers -6.5||19-20||Loss||-105||71 h 47 m||Show|
Wembley Stadium - London, England
Hate to be completely simplistic with my approach to this game, but what we have here is a team in the Chargers currently hitting on all cylinders and off three straight wins and other team the Titans on a two game losing streak, behind a offence that was shutout last week, and that has put 9, 12 points on the board in 2 of their previous three games. The Titans QB Mariota who had shown so much promise in the past has slowly begun to fizzle behind HC Vrabels conservative methodical system, and looks at times disinterested and just going through the motions. Thats not a good mind set to be in when going against an explosive up trending team like the Chargers.
LA CHARGERS is 29-4 ATS against AFC South division opponents since 1992.TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 15-35 ATS L/50 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game
Tennessee is 0-15 ATS L/15 vs a side like the Chargers that has won each of their last two games by at least six points and covered them both. San Diego is 16-0 ATS L/16 on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent like the Titans that has averaged more than one turnover per game and less than 70% completions and had suffered a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games.
Play on San Diego Chargers to cover
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5||30-33||Loss||-115||12 h 15 m||Show|
The Packers are a injury riddled group right now and Aaron Rodgers looks less than 100% healthy ,but their defence is holding up well and have held their last two opponents to season low outputs.I expect they will continue to stand tall vs a Niners team with a uncertain QB situation thanks to Jimmy G being out with an injury and top RB (Jerick McKinnon) out, and it must also be noted that eight offensive players were on the sideline during Thursday's practice due to injuries.
Also an interesting trends run here indicates GB could be in a letdown situation as they have gone under 8 straight times after playing long time rivals Detroit who they faced last week. Meanwhile, SF despite of losing to Arizona thanks to 5 turnovers last week held the Arizona Cards to 220 yards of Total offence. The 49ers D, has not always looked cohesive this season, but considering how banged up the Packers are they have a viable opportunity to make them selves look like respectable stoppers this Monday night.
Look for two banged up offences to play fairly conservatively here this evening, and for this combined total to stay on the low side of the number.
NFL team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 26-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. The average posted total was 46 and the average combined score clicked in at 38.4 ppg.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59||40-43||Win||100||83 h 24 m||Show|
The KC Chiefs and their young gunslinger QB Patrick Mahomes goes head to head with future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady this Sunday night in a prime time affair with a justifiably high total attached to it. Both teams can put points up in bunches and both have shown a reluctance or inability to play consistent defence. Last year KC came into New England and won a 42-27 battle, and if the Pats get up here you know they won't take the pedal of the metal , knowing how explosive the Chiefs can be, and also wanting to inflict some pain on their opponent in revenge mode. KC will respond in kind . Let the fireworks begin. OVER.
New England has averaged 34,3 ppg at home this season. KC's offence has averaged 35.7 ppg on the road and the D has give up 29.3 ppg.
NFL games with an exceptionally high Totals line of 58 or more points have gone 7-0-1 O/U since since the 2000 campaign . The highest total ever registered was 60 points back in 2004 where KC and Oakland put 61 points on the board eclipsing the 60 point totals line.
Play on the OVER
|10-14-18||Ravens v. Titans OVER 41||21-0||Loss||-110||69 h 9 m||Show|
The Titans style of play is a old school approach to the game and methodical in nature. They like to smash and crash their way to the promised land , while the Ravens like to run and gun and utilize their array of offensive weapons. Here today, Im betting the Titans will have no choice to open up against a team that can pile points upon a hurry. Both teams took part in low scoring affairs last week and will be itching to see their offences flow this week. Baltimore lost to Cleveland 12-9 and are 8-1 OVER after they score 10 points or less.TENNESSEE is 21-6 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points since 1992 which happened against Buffalo in a 13-12 loss last week and 7-1 OVER L/8 after the scored 13 or less points
The L/3 games in this series have gone over with a combined average of 45 points per game going on the board.
NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 26-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 30-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-14-18||Panthers v. Redskins OVER 44.5||17-23||Loss||-107||68 h 21 m||Show|
The Redskins enter this game on short rest after their defence was exposed on Monday night vs the New Orleans Saints as they lost 43-19. Meanwhile, the Panthers D, did not look much better in a 33-31 win vs the NY Giants last week and more importantly were out gained 432 to 350 yards. It must be noted that Washington is 12-0 OVER on a natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed more points and more than 345 yards of offense in their last game. The Panthers are 19-0 OVER since 1998 as a dog when the total is over 34 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points.
The Panthers feature the league's top-ranked ground game, averaging 154.0 yards per game which is a good omen for us cashing a OVER ticket as the Redskins are 15-0 OVER vs a team that is averaging at least 28.5 rushes per game.
CAROLINA is 17-3 OVER L/20 in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 61.5 ppg.
WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 56 ppg. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 49 ppg scored.
NFL games are 18-0 OVER since the start of last season in non-divisional games that are lined within three of pickem between teams with the same winning percentage, as long as the host team is not on a five-plus game winning or losing streak.
NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 51-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
|10-14-18||Colts +2.5 v. Jets||34-42||Loss||-110||68 h 2 m||Show|
The Jets despite of notching a win last week, vs a sleepy looking Denver team were not particularly efficient and still had two turnovers, which is not a good omen for them this week vs top tier QB Andrew Luck and Colts. It must be noted that NFL teams that had fewer than six wins the previous season are 0-18 ATS at home when they are off a home win in which they committed two-plus turnovers and have lost 15 of the 18 games SU. Meanwhile, the Colts are off having their butts kicked in a Thursday night clash last week in prime time, and have shown a propensity to bounce back well with Luck at the helm of the offence, as is evident by Indys record when coming off a SUATS loss, recording a 22-4 SU mark along with a bankroll expanding 21-5 ATS record in his NFL career – including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against below .500 opposition and a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a non-division double- digit loss as was the case vs the Indianapolis and is also 12-1 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which their opponent had more third down conversions than punts. With that said, expect Luck and company to cash this week vs a Jets side that is 0-4 ATS L/4 off a SU/ATS win.
NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-14-18||Cardinals v. Vikings UNDER 43||17-27||Loss||-105||67 h 30 m||Show|
Arizona has not played aggressively this season, and have actually been quite methodical in their approach and now tonight against a superior side in an away game I expect for the Cards to very conservative again . I know some might think that Arizona will be suddenly aggressive aftertaste weeks win, but they had only 220 total yards in the game and picked up just 10 first downs in the victory, and will once again be in that frame of mind here. The Cardinals are 0-8 UNDER on the road coming off a win where they gained no more than 18 first downs Minnesota after big revenge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last week 23-21 and will be a in letdown scenario this week and could be just going through the motions vs a side that Im sure their not the inspired to play against. Minnesota is 1-9 UNDER as a home favourite of 8 points or more and have gone UNDER 9 straight times as a home favorite of more than a TD coming off a tilt where they covered. MINNESOTA is 6-0 UNDER L/ 6 in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.7 ppg scored.