|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-24-19||Saints v. Jets UNDER 42.5||28-13||Win||100||58 h 51 m||Show|
I know the Saints run and gun reputation proceeds them, but right now HC Payton just wants he key offensive weapons to stay healthy, and for the goal of improving the defence this season to be key here tonight. Meanwhile, the Jets remain a team dedicated to playing strong D, and here in week 3 against a explosive opponent Im expecting a conservative effort and a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.
Bowles is 13-5 UNDER in all games as the coach of NY JETS with average combined score of 34.6 ppg scored.
Week 3-4 NFLX totals above the 40 point threshold have gone 91-62-3 UNDER for a 60% conversion rate since the 2004 season.
NFLX team against the total (NY Jets/NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win are 67-25 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
|08-16-19||Bears v. Giants UNDER 42.5||13-32||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
The Bears look like they are going to try to stay healthy for the regular season by not playing their key starters during the preseason. With the Bears offensive depth a concerns and their defensive depth looking strong I expect conservative game plans offensively and top tier defensive efforts in a competitive environment which will limit their output and limit the opponents output. Meanwhile, Giants backup QB Daniel Jones despite of scoring on his first set of downs in last weeks preseason , might have Giants pundits dreaming of replacing Manning, but all reports out of camp suggest Jones despite of having no problems going deep, still lacks in his short term and intermediate game, which makes him susceptible tonight vs a explosive Bears D. Everything points to a lower scoring affair here tonight according to my projections.
key injuries to WRs also have been taken into consideration: Golden Tate (suspension) and Sterling Shepard (fractured thumb) and Corey Coleman (torn ACL) is out for the season.
NFL Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY GIANTS) - off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record in the preseason. are 34-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
|08-15-19||Eagles v. Jaguars UNDER 35||24-10||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
QB Nick Foles is not expected to play for the Jaguars this week, and QB Carson Wentz is also not expected to see action for the Eagles.
Last season the Jaguars scored and allowed fewer points in Weeks 2 and 3 than in their opener last preseason. After losing 29-0 to Baltimore last week, Im expecting a staunch defensive effort , but their offence as the big zero showed last week , is definitely a project that needs honing. Meanwhile, Philadelphia lost 27-10 to the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, and as their output indicates they suffered in their attempts at vertical football and Im also betting their offence will suffer again this week.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 UNDER L/22 preseason games after a loss by 10 or more points with a combined average of 32.7 ppg scored in those 22 tilts.
NFLX team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after playing their last game on the road are 114-65 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.
NFLX team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders are 129-80 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.
|08-10-19||Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 36.5||17-38||Loss||-109||10 h 18 m||Show|
The public loves anything to do with a Chiefs over. But Andy Reid does not need to prove his offence is explosive, but does have a need to make the sure the D is staunch, if his team hopes to progress to the next and final level. The Chiefs are expected to improve defensively this season with the off season upgrades and that will be the Chiefs focus here in game 1 not offence. Also me and many others off I have spoken with expect the Bengals D to also be better this season, and with that said, Im betting on an under wager to be a viable investment opportunity here in this preseason game.
|08-09-19||Bucs v. Steelers OVER 37||28-30||Win||100||1 h 14 m||Show|
Tampa Bay new head coach Bruce Arians, had put together and mentored three top-10 scoring offenses (2007 Steelers, 2015 and 2016 Cardinals) in 14 years as an NFL coach and offensive coordinator and has the talent to make this an explosive version of the Buccaneers again. Look for some points to go on the board here tonight Arians opens this offence up quickly and gets it moving in the right direction. On the flip side the Bucs run D, remains a shambles, as it was last season, and tonight I expect the run happy Steelers to pound away , and do some damage in a game that promises to be fairly high scoring.
|08-26-18||Bengals v. Bills UNDER 41.5||26-13||Win||100||29 h 4 m||Show|
Buffalo took out Cleveland last time out 19-17 in week 2 exhibition play, going under the total. BUFFALO is 15-5 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points since 1993 with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Cincinnati won 21-13 at Dallas,and went under the total, as the D, looked strong, and I'm betting on this tilt being another defensive full dress rehearsal football affair that also stays on the low side of the Total.
NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins are 35-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those games clicking at 35 ppg.
NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 31-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 33.8 ppg.
|08-25-18||Texans v. Rams UNDER 42.5||20-21||Win||100||57 h 54 m||Show|
The Rams lack of experience at the edge. Depth along the OL and at QB remain big time concerns. I still think this team can score in bunches as long as they can curtail injuries. Here in the preseason despite of this being a full dress rehearsal game , I'm betting on a more concerted effort towards staying healthy and analyzing the defense which will be key here in game 3 of the preseason for the Rams . The Rams second string defense held the Raiders to 50 yards at halftime last time out and with mostly starters in the lineup tonight, Im expecting a similar effort vs a Texas side that had problems scoring last season. The Texans saving grace will once again be a solid D, that held the Chiefs running game to minimal yards in game 1 of their preseason and last week held SF QB Jimmy G, to limited yards for most of that tilt. I expect they stand tall here again this week at home. With that said, I recommend we take and under stance here this exhibition contest.
Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 road games.Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 home games.
.Play Under - Any team against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins are 38-5 UNDER L5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.
|08-24-18||Patriots v. Panthers UNDER 46||14-25||Win||100||49 h 47 m||Show|
New Englands offence does not concern the Pats coaching staff but the defence seems to still need some adjustments, and has a lot to prove after some of last seasons debacles including the Super Bowl loss. Carolina remains a defence first team with a conservative and sometime impotent offence, which I'm betting will help keep this game on the low side of the Total.
Belichick is 16-7 UNDER in road games after playing a non-conference game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. with the average combined score clicking in at 36.4 ppg.
Play Under - Any team against the total (CAROLINA/NEW ENGLAND) - with a winning record in the preseason playing another winning team are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 34.8 ppg getting scored.
NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins are 33-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.
|08-25-16||Falcons v. Dolphins UNDER 43.5||6-17||Win||100||57 h 25 m||Show|
Miami has gone under in 6 of their L/7 preseason games in week 3 with ana verage combined score of 28.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. Atlanta has gone under in 4 straight week 3 preseason games with a average combined score of 33.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Heat and humidity of South Florida should once again slow the pace of this contest , and I am betting that will keep the combined score on the low side of the number. Note Mimi has only gone over in of their 2 of their L/12 NFLX home games dating back six seasons with na average of 29.6 ppg going onto the board, staying under the average posted total by almost a TD a game.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|08-18-16||Bears v. Patriots OVER 40.5||22-23||Win||100||60 h 23 m||Show|
New England has seen their L/6 game 2 games go over the Total with an average of 50 ppg going on the score board. I expect the Pats offense get out fast and score this week in bunches against what remains a suspect Bears D. Look for the Bears to chase , in desperation after being shut out last week by Denver. Which will result in enough combined total points to eclipse this number.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|08-18-16||Raiders v. Packers OVER 42.5||12-20||Loss||-107||60 h 22 m||Show|
The Raiders looked ready to roll last week, as they put up 31 points. The Raiders who will try to keep the rhythm of a high octane attack alive, will push a Green Bay team that has gone over in 8 of their L/10 preseason games, with an average of 44.2 ppg going on the scoreboard.
Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection
|08-12-16||Browns v. Packers OVER 36||11-17||Loss||-110||14 h 51 m||Show|
Packer preseason home games, have gone 12-4 OVER in their L/16 overall with an average of 43.8 ppg poing on the scoreboard. during the L/2 years all 4 Packer home games have gone over with 52, 48, 65, and 48 pts getting scored. More loose play tonight must be expected as GB Q Callahan has alot to prove playing as a backup to Aaron Rodgers, and expected to play alot of this game. Also the Cleveland, have proven offensively capable recently and that should extend into this season.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|08-29-15||Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 42||16-15||Win||100||37 h 40 m||Show|
This being a full dress rehearsel before the regular season begins I expect we see the best out of these two teams very good defenses. SD has recently seen their L/3 Week 3 nflx tilts stay under the total with an average combined score of 27 points going on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, HC Carrol and his Seahawks, will once again prove they must not be disrespected defensively, and should be very ready to stand tall here this week , as they did last week in KC allowing just 14 points on the road in a game that combined for 27 total points. Look for both sides to grind the ball on the ground quite abit this week, and for defensive lines to be quite tenacious, making life difficult for the QBS.
Play UNDER the set Total 1 unit reg selection
|08-24-14||San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42||7-21||Win||100||80 h 45 m||Show|
These two teams are playing to stay healthy. They know the type of teams they have and rosters look stable. The goal here is to get these games over quickly and without incident.
Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection