|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-20-19||North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 166.5||Top||88-72||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE
The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE
|02-11-19||Portland State v. CS Sacramento OVER 140.5||Top||67-78||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Portland State/Sacramento State
We head to Big Sky country for our top total this week as Sacramento State plays host to Portland State. Neither team is going anywhere this year. Both are near the bottom of the standings, but something else they have in common is a recent string of Unders. Portland State has gone Under five straight times while Sac State is 4-1 Under in its last five games. These rivals played three times last season and the Under was a perfect 3 for 3. Not this time, however. Because of all the Unders, this number comes in low, significantly lower than most of the recent O/U lines for both teams. It'll likely end up being the lowest total for any Portland State game this year and Sac State has only seen a few lower. Portland State is averaging 77 PPG and Sac State averages 78.6 at home. Neither team is great defensively either. Portland State shot just 35% in their last game, but should do much better than that here. The Vikings have let three straight opponents shoot better than 50% as well. Play OVER Portland State-Sacramento State
|02-05-19||Akron v. Toledo OVER 132.5||Top||52-63||Loss||-116||11 h 49 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on OVER Akron-Toledo
This is a number that I expect to be bet up throughout the course of the day. That sounds strange given how Akron games have played out of late and really all season. The Zips are 6-0 Under in the last six games and 15-4 Under overall. But because of that, tonight's total opened way too low. Akron will be facing a Toledo team that is averaging 81.2 PPG in its home arena. The Rockets have gone Under in three straight games themselves, but the previous two both took place out on the road. A return home should reignite their offense. For Toledo, this is a really low total as most of their games are 141.5 or above. This would be the lowest total for any Rockets game all season. So the oddsmakers are being far too conservative in their estimate for the amount of scoring in this game. Akron averages over 70 PPG itself. Play OVER Akron-Toledo
|02-01-19||Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141||Top||59-74||Loss||-115||10 h 29 m||Show|
This is a 10* on OVER Michigan-Iowa
A rough couple games for Michigan now seem to be in the rear view mirror. On January 19th, they suffered their first and only loss of the season, 64-54 at Wisconsin. They followed that up by almost losing to Minnesota at home. But the last seven days have gone much better with the Wolverines winning by double digits against both Indiana (69-46) and Ohio State (65-49). Anytime you allow less than 50 points in back to back games, that's obviously impressive. It's certainly more impressive than what Iowa has done on the defensive end in its last two games. The Hawkeyes have given up 82 and 92 points in losses to Michigan State and Minnesota. They've now allowed 80 or more five times in Big 10 action. While Michigan is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Iowa is 120th. While its obvious who has the edge defensively in this Friday night matchup, don't be surprised if the game still ends up being higher scoring than expected. Iowa does average 84.2 PPG at home. For them, this is a low total, one that should easily go Over as Michigan should score plenty tonight as well. Play OVER Michigan-Iowa
|01-25-19||Butler v. Creighton UNDER 154||Top||61-75||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Butler-Creighton
Both Butler and Creighton are quickly falling off the pace in the Big East. Creighton was at least able to stop the bleeding some with a 91-87 win over Georgetown Monday. That snapped a four-game losing skid. Butler comes in off a loss to Villanova, which was just their second home defeat this season. The focus here is on the total. Butler has gone Over in all seven conference games so far. One of those came against Creighton. Butler won the game 84-69, thanks to getting out to a big first half lead. They shot better than 50% too. But the Bulldogs offensive numbers do drop pretty significantly on the road. So I would not expect another 80+ effort from them tonight. Similarly, Creighton is better on the defensive end here in Omaha. The Bluejays have really struggled to get stops lately, but tonight will be a different story. The number opened as the highest total for any Butler conference game so far. It's too high. Play UNDER Butler-Creighton
|12-08-18||Notre Dame v. UCLA UNDER 151.5||Top||62-65||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the UNDER ND/UCLA.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:
As note that Notre Dame has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road and in nine of its last 13 as a road underdog or pick, while UCLA has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last nine after two straight ATS covers as a favorite.
This number is a little high, play the UNDER.
|04-02-18||Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5||62-79||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the UNDER.
Villanova is the highest-scoring team in the nation, averring 87 PPG. The Wolverines clearly can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the Wildcats. Michigan will be doing everything it can to control the pace of this one and we think that’s going to help in pushing this one UNDER once it’s all said and done. Fatigue is definitely a factor at this point of the season as well. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.
|03-31-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan OVER 128||Top||57-69||Loss||-105||152 h 41 m||Show|
This is a 10* FINAL FOUR TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Loyola Chicago and Michigan.
Loyola-Chicago advanced by beating Kansas State in the Elite Eight, while Michigan for the better of FSU in the last round. These two teams are competent at both ends of the floor. With a few extra days off to rest up and prepare, we’re expecting this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Ramblers average 72 PPG and they allow 62.4. The Wolverines average 74.1 PPG and they concede 63.1. Note though that Loyola Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 16 against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Michigan has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of 13 already this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is a little low, play the OVER.
|03-27-18||Mississippi State v. Penn State OVER 134.5||60-75||Win||100||27 h 3 m||Show|
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Mississippi State and Penn State.
Penn State has advanced with road wins over Notre Dame and Marquette, while Mississippi State has beaten Baylor and Louisville, also both on the road. Now these teams collide at Madison Square Garden and we believe that all signs point to a run and gun shootout. And the numbers/trends support that, as note that Mississippi State has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 17 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 130 and 139.5, while Penn State has seen the total go OVER in 13 of its last 19 against teams with winning records. Both teams are known for their tough defensive play, but Penn State will need to push the pace of this one to keep the Bulldogs out of their comfort zone. This can still be a defensive affair and go OVER this lower number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting.
|03-25-18||Duke v. Kansas UNDER 155.5||Top||81-85||Loss||-110||32 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between Duke and Kansas.
Both teams opened the NCAA Tournament by playing to an “under,” but each has since played to a higher-scoring OVER to reach this point. Duke enters off a 69-65 win over Syracuse, while Kansas held on for an 80-76 win over Clemson. The Blue Devils average 84.4 PPG and they allow 69.2. In the win over the Orange Duke would force 15 turnovers and commit just seven of its own. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it allows 71. After struggling in two games to open the tournament defensively, Kansas looked a lot better against the Tigers by holding htem to 43.1 percent form the floor, including just 30 percent from 3-point range. Note that Duke has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last nine against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Kansas has seen the total go UNDER in ten of 17 this year after scoring 80 points or more. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.
|03-24-18||Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143||Top||54-58||Win||100||37 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between FSU and Michigan.
Both teams are playing at an extremely high level right now. The Seminoles advanced with an impressive 75-60 win over the high-scoring Gonzaga Bulldogs and they’ll be looking for a repeat performance here against a Michigan team which exploded for a 99-72 win over Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. FSU averages 81.1 PPG and it allows 73.7. Michigan averages 73.8 PPG and it allows just 63.1. Note that FSU has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of eight neutral site games already this season, while Michigan has seen the total go UNDER in six of nine this year after scoring 80 points or more. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.
|03-24-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State OVER 126.5||78-62||Win||100||32 h 9 m||Show|
This is an 8* ULTIMATE SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Loyola Illinois and K-State.
Both of these teams are known for their tough defensive play and this can still be a closely contested affair and fly OVER this extremely low total. And that’s exactly what we’re expecting here. Loyola Chicago averages 71.8 points and it allows 62.4. Kansas State averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 63.9. Not surprisingly, neither team has played to too many high-scoring affairs this season, which makes it very important to note that the Ramblers have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four non-conference games, while K-State has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four when the total in the contest is set between 120 and 129.5. This number is just a tad low, play the OVER.
|03-22-18||Texas A&M v. Michigan OVER 133.5||72-99||Win||100||81 h 25 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the OVER between Texas A&M and Michigan.
These are two teams which predicate themselves on their tough defensive play, but we think the conditions are right for a big of a “shootout” (comparatively speaking anyways, as it won’t take much for this one to soar OVER this smaller posted total.) A&M advanced after shocking UNC 86-65 on Sunday and we look for the Aggies to once again push the pace here against the defensive minded Wolverines. Michigan advanced to this point off a tougher than expected 64-63 win over Houston on Saturday. The Aggies average 75.3 PPG and they allow 69.6. The Wolverines average 73.8 PPG and they allow 63.1. Texas A&M now has its “game-plan” for the rest of the tournament, as they’ll be pushing the pace from start to finish. The Wolverines have to put up or get bounced tonight as they look to match pace and survive another round. This number is a little low, play the OVER.
|03-19-18||Eastern Michigan v. Sam Houston State UNDER 135.5||62-69||Win||100||32 h 42 m||Show|
This is an 8* CIT TOP SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between EMU and Sam Houston State.
The Eagles enter off an 83-65 smash job of Niagara, while the Beakats come in off an 89-79 loss to Southeastern Louisiana in the Semifinals of the Southland Tournament. EMU averages 72 PPG and it allows just 66.8. Sam Houston State averages only 71.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 68.1. Note that EMU has seen the total go UNDER the number in 23 of its last 30 following an ATS victory, while Sam Houston State has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven when playing with five or more days rest. Neither team possesses a very adept offense, but each has been dominant on the defensive side of the ball. We’re expecting a very tight, lower-scoring affair. This number is a little high, play the UNDER>
|03-08-18||Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine OVER 129.5||Top||67-68||Win||100||30 h 4 m||Show|
This is a 10* BIG WEST TOURNAMENT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Hawaii and UC Irvine.
This is the first round of the Big West Tournament and it comes from the Honda Center in Anaheim. Hawaii is the No. 6 seed and UC Irvine is No. 3. Both teams come in with momentum, especially the Rainbow Warriors with four wins out of their last six. The Anteaters will be eager to return to form after a difficult double OT loss to UC Davis in their regular season finale, which would have given it the No. 1 seed. Instead UC Davis is at No. 3. These teams split a pair of games this season, with each winning on the road. Note that Hawaii has seen the total go OVER the number in four of six tournament games already this year, while UC Irvine has seen the total go OVER the number in both tournament games that it’s played in this year. These are two potentially dangerous teams and in our opinion, all signs point to a classic shootout. Play the OVER.