|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke UNDER 150.5||Top||68-67||Win||100||24 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER Michigan State-Duke
These two national powers approach their Elite 8 matchup with serious injury concerns. For Duke, Cam Reddish was a late scratch Friday night vs. Va Tech. For a second straight game, the Blue Devils had to hold on as a last second shot by their opponent (that would have been a game-winner) rolled off the rim. Michigan State lost Nick Ward to a hand injury late in their Sweet 16 victory over LSU. But he said he will play here. While the Spartans scored 80 against LSU, they actually shot better the game before against Minnesota. We don't look for them to shoot that well or score as many in this game. Duke, like Michigan State, is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. Both teams are holding their opponents to a field goal percentage below 40.0 for the season. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, but have been better than usual the last two games. Don't look for that trend to continue, however. For the year, they are at just 27.1% from behind the arc away from Cameron. Take Tre Jones going 5 for 7 out of the equation and the rest of the Blue Devils shot just 1 of 13 on three-pointers against Va Tech. The team shot 55% overall, but that won't be repeated here. Good news for Duke is they hold their opponents to under 30% from three-point range. Low-scoring game between the top two seeds in the East Region. Play UNDER Michigan State-Duke
|03-31-19||Auburn v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5||Top||77-71||Loss||-110||21 h 16 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on UNDER Auburn-Kentucky
Well, there will be one SEC team in the Final Four. We just don't know if it'll be Auburn or Kentucky. This all-SEC Elite 8 matchup pits the 5th seeded Tigers against the 2nd seeded Wildcats and is the third time they'll have met this season. Kentucky won the first two, 82-80 on the road and 80-53 on the road. Obviously, the major difference between the two games was how much worse Auburn was on offense in Lexington. This game is being played at a neutral site and considering how strong the Tigers have looked offensively in this Tournament, you'd think that this rubber match is inclined to more closely resemble the first regular season meeting. But Kentucky is playing lock down defense. As a result 9 of its last 11 games have stayed Under. And Auburn's offense has suffered a major blow with third leading scorer Chuma Okeke out with a knee injury. Okeke was leading the team with 20 points against North Carolina when the injury was suffered. As for the UK offense, they don't make that many threes and have scored only 62 points each of the last two games. The Under is 13-3 in the Wildcats last 16 NCAA Tournament games plus 12-3 the last 15 times they've taken on Auburn. Play UNDER Auburn-Kentucky
|03-29-19||Auburn v. North Carolina OVER 164||Top||97-80||Win||100||26 h 27 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on OVER Auburn-North Carolina
This game figures to see plenty of points. Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game in the tournament. Both average either more (North Carolina) or close to (Auburn) 80 PPG over the whole season. North Carolina scores the third most points in the country at 86.0 PPG. They should not have much trouble scoring here. A key advantage they have over Auburn is rebounding. The Tar Heels outrebound their opponents - on average - by about 10.5 per game. Auburn is at -3.5 rebounds per game. We expect lots of second chance points for the Tar Heels in this one. They just put up 81 against a Washington team that was top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. We had the Under in that one and it stayed Under with North Carolina holding the Huskies to just 59 points. But Washington is fairly inept offensively, a description that clearly does not apply to Auburn. The Tigers have scored at least 78 points seven times during their 10-game win streak. The Over is 5-0 in their last five games vs. teams that have a win percentage north of .600. That includes 2-0 in the Tournament as they have given up 77 and 75 points. Play OVER Auburn-North Carolina
|03-29-19||LSU v. Michigan State UNDER 149.5||Top||63-80||Win||100||97 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER LSU-Michigan State
This should be a dogfight. LSU has won a couple of close games so far, sticking true to their profile. A 79-74 win over Yale and 69-67 win over Maryland makes it 11 wins this season by five points or less for the Tigers. That doesn't even include a pair of six-point overtime victories in conference play. Michigan State was shaky in Round 1 vs. Bradley (failed to cover), but totally shut down Big 10 rival Minnesota in the round of 32. Sparty won that game 70-50, holding the Golden Gophers to a 30.5% shooting percentage. LSU didn't shoot particularly well in their win over Maryland (36.9%) but was fortunate to hold the Terps to 33.3%. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair. In their last 13 games, MSU has allowed more than 70 points just one time. They are 18-7-1 to the Under when off an ATS victory. The Under is 5-2 in LSU's last seven games overall with both Overs coming against the same team - Florida. The total for both Florida games was lower than it is here. Michigan State won't be shooting 57.1% again here like they did vs. Minnesota. Play UNDER LSU-Michigan State
|03-25-19||Utah Valley v. South Florida OVER 146||Top||57-66||Loss||-115||10 h 23 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Utah Valley-USF
There should be plenty of points scored in this CBI matchup Monday evening. Utah Valley State just scored 91 in their last game (while giving up 84) and they've been pretty prolfic this entire season. The Wolverines average 77.6 points per game overall and have exceeded that average over the last five games. South Florida just gave up 48 points in a half to its previous opponent, Stony Brook, before coming back to win. That was the most points scored by Stony Brook in any half this season. USF wound up getting the three-point win in overtime, thanks to a strong defensive effort after halftime, but strong defensive efforts have been somewhat few and far between with this group. The Bulls two previous opponents both shot better than 54% from the field and Utah Valley is certainly capable of doing the same as they shoot 38.5% from three-point range. USF's last four games have all gone Over as have the last two for Utah Valley. The Over is 7-0 in USF's last seven home games and 6-0 the last six times Utah Valley has taken on a team with a win percentage above .600. Play OVER Utah Valley State-South Florida
|03-24-19||Cal-Irvine v. Oregon UNDER 124.5||Top||54-73||Loss||-109||25 h 27 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon
We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon
|03-24-19||Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 148.5||Top||59-81||Win||100||19 h 60 m||Show|
This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina
We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina
|03-23-19||Wofford v. Kentucky UNDER 139||Top||56-62||Win||100||16 h 25 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky
Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky
|03-23-19||Maryland v. LSU UNDER 145.5||Top||67-69||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU
The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU
|03-22-19||Arizona State v. Buffalo OVER 157||Top||74-91||Win||100||16 h 3 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo
We took the Under in Arizona State's game Wednesday, which they won handily. But this time won't be facing an offensively inept team like St. John's, whom they limited to 31.9% shooting. Instead it will be Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in the country. The MAC Champion Bulls average 84.9 points per game and when you couple that with the fact ASU averages 77.7, you have the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Yes, we definitely cited the Sun Devils strong field goal percentage defense as a reason to expect Wednesday's game to go Under. But Buffalo should prove too difficult to stop. They play at a very fast tempo as is evident by them topping 80 points in five striaght games. ASU isn't too far behind, scoring at least 74 in its last five games. With ASU coach Bobby Hurley having previously coached at Buffalo, there should be no surprises defensively here. Play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo
|03-22-19||Gardner-Webb v. Virginia UNDER 131||Top||56-71||Win||100||15 h 7 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia
This is our top Round 1 total. Certainly, the defense of Virginia needs no introduction. The top seeded Cavaliers lead the country in scoring defense (55.1 PPG allowed), giving up 3.5 PPG fewer than the second best team (Michigan). Yes, we're sure you remember last year's epic flameout in the 1st round as the Cavs became the first 1-seed to ever lose to a 16-seed (you knew it would happen eventually). But this team should be on a mission to atone for that sin. Don't look for Gardner-Webb to be anywhere near as successful as UMBC was last year. The Bulldogs have won eight of nine and upset Radford to win the Big South Tourney. But they're severely outclassed here. Virginia did lose its last game, to Florida State in the ACC Semifinals, which becomes important when you consider UVA is 7-2 Under its last nine times following a SU loss. There's a strong chance Gardner-Webb gets held to a season low in points this afternoon. Virginia plays slow and its opponents average less than 20 made field goals per game. On the bright side for Gardner-Webb is the fact Virginia scored only 59 points its last game. Play UNDER Gardner Webb-Virginia
|03-22-19||Colgate v. Tennessee UNDER 148.5||Top||70-77||Win||100||15 h 54 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee
Despite having spent significant time ranked #1 in the country, Tennessee still has a sense of skepticism around them. Now they should have no problem beating 15-seed Colgate Friday. But the second-seeded Vols definitely didn't look good in their SEC Final loss to Auburn on Sunday. They went down there by a score of 84-64. It was the 4th straight game giving up 76 points or more. All four games went Over. But even though the Volunteers are facing a team that has won 11 in a row, we'll call for them to turn in their best defensive effort in a while. Colgate's last three games were all Over, but they should expect to find UT a lot tougher to score on than the standard Patriot League fare. The Raiders played only one NCAA Tournament team all season (Syracuse) and they scored just 54 points. The Under is a powerful 20-4 the last 24 times Colgate has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or greater. The Under is a on 19-9 run in Tennessee games when they are off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee
|03-20-19||Arizona State v. St. John's UNDER 153.5||Top||74-65||Win||100||13 h 3 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER St. John's-Arizona State
This total just seems too high to us, even though neither team is going to "wow" you defensively. Arizona State has some issues offensively as well. Both members of its starting backcourt are shooting below 41% overall and 33% from three-point land on the season. As a team, the Sun Devils were near the bottom of the Pac 12 in overall field goal percentage. But they make up for that some by allowing opponents to only shoot 41.3%. Their last game, a 79-74 loss to Oregon, would have been a lot lower scoring were it not for overtime. St. John's only scored 54 points the last time it took the floor, shooting 32.8% in an ugly loss to Marquette. For both teams, we usually don't see a total this high. Arizona State has allowed only one of its previous seven opponents to shoot better than 45% and five were held below 42%. Those expecting a shootout tonight should be prepared to be disappointed. Play UNDER Arizona State-St. Johns
|03-19-19||Belmont v. Temple OVER 155||Top||81-70||Loss||-110||14 h 53 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Belmont-Temple
Belmont can score. The Bruins average 87.4 points per game on nearly 50% shooting. That scoring average is #2 in the entire country, behind only Gonzaga. The shooting percentage is tied for the 4th highest. So expect the OVC's regular season champ to score plenty in this Opening Round matchup vs. Temple. The problem is that the Bruins can't stop anybody. Opponents shot almost 35% from behind the arc in the regular season. They have gone Under in three straight games, but those games all had higher totals than this one. The number here looks a little low for playing a Temple team that has scored at least 70 points in every game since February 13th. Belmont doesn't force many turnovers. Something else to consider - Temple is an outstanding free throw shooting team as is Belmont. Play OVER Belmont-Temple
|03-12-19||Arkansas State v. South Alabama UNDER 142||Top||67-75||Push||0||12 h 33 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama
We probably shouldn't be expecting very much from either Arkansas State or South Alabama in the Sun Belt Tournament, but one of them is going to advance to tomorrow's quarterfinals. Playing at home, South Alabama is rightfully favored to move on, but this isn't a game where you'd want to play the pointspread. The two regular season meetings were both low scoring games with the home team winning both times - by scores of 66-65 and 70-62. We don't see any reason why more points should be expected in the rubber match, let alone a double digit increase in scoring. While Arkansas State did just give up 90 points to Coastal Carolina on Saturday, that game went to overtime. South Alabama is allowing an average of just 68.7 PPG at home this season. The Under is 7-0 in the Jaguars' previous seven Tuesday games, for whatever that's worth. Play UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama
|03-10-19||Illinois v. Penn State OVER 149||Top||56-72||Loss||-115||4 h 1 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on OVER Illinois/Penn State
Penn State is a team that lost its first nine conference games, but that was a gross misrepresentation of where the Nittany Lions were really at. They've since won six of nine in the Big 10, also going 8-0-1 ATS. The push came earlier this week in a one-point victory over Rutgers, a game where they led by 18 at halftime. In the final home game of the year, Penn State hosts an Illinois team that's had more lows than highs in 2019. The Illini have dropped four of their last five, having just given up 92 points in a loss to Indiana on Thursday. Expect plenty of points here as well. Over the last four games, the Illini are allowing an average of 81 PPG. Opponents are shooting almost 50% against them for the year, when they're on the road, including 37.5% from three-point range. Penn State actually allows a slightly higher three-point shooting percentage here at home. That's a big reason why the Over is 4-0 the last four games at State College. The Over is also 6-2 in Penn State's last eight Big 10 games. Play OVER Illinois-Penn State
|03-10-19||Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 133.5||Top||73-89||Loss||-109||4 h 53 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana
You may be surprised to learn that Rutgers is a pretty good team at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. Indiana ranks even higher at 27th. Each team's offensive efficiency rating is much lower with Rutgers being at 150. So even though IU just dropped 92 on the road in its last game, our expectations are for a pretty low scoring game today in Bloomington. Outside of a game against Iowa (who is maybe the Big 10's worst defensive team), Rutgers has not gone over 70 points in any of its last six games. Indiana's had some real "stinkers" on offense too, particularly at home where they've scored 63 points or less three times in the last four games. These teams met back in January and the final score was 66-58 Rutgers. I don't think the rematch will be much more high scoring and that means the Under is in play here. The Hoosiers shot better than 55% in their last game, a number they won't match here. Nor will they allow 50% shooting to Rutgers, a number their last two opponents have both reached. Play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana
|03-10-19||Houston v. Cincinnati UNDER 129||Top||85-69||Loss||-115||4 h 46 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati
This figures to be a bit of a "rock fight" with the two top teams in the American facing off to determine who gets the regular season title. Houston has been in front most of the year, but did suffer a home loss to UCF last Saturday. They bounced back by beating SMU 90-79. Cincinnati was even with UH at two conference losses going into Thursday, but then they too lost to UCF, 58-55. The Bearcats have two streaks going on heading into today's regular season finale. They have lost seven straight ATS and the Under is 5-0 the L5 games. Of the two streaks, we believe the latter is more likely to continue here. Houston is a top 20 defensive team in the country, just like Cincinnati is. These teams played last month and the final score was 66-58 in favor of UH. The Cougars have gone Under in five of their last seven games, the only exceptions being a couple of 90+ point efforts against conference weaklings. They won't get anywhere close to that many points today in what figures to be another slugfest with so much on the line. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati
|02-25-19||Northern Colorado v. Montana OVER 142||Top||74-72||Win||100||22 h 43 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana
I don't think that the end of Northern Colorado's 9-game Under streak made many headlines over the weekend, but it did end. The Bears lost an overtime game to Eastern Washington, 88-78. Let it be known though that the game would have gone Over even without OT - by double digits. It's not as if Northern Colorado is a poor offensive team. They average 77.2 points per game. That Under streak was more a byproduct of them playing bad Big Sky teams in games with pretty high totals. Here they face the Big Sky's best offensive - and overall - team in Montana. This is a pretty important game between the conference's 1st and 2nd place teams. Northern Colorado is two games back and was beaten badly - 88-64 - by Montana in the first meeting. That was at home too. Montana averages 80.0 PPG in Missoula and has scored at least 83 points in five out of its last six games (Over is 5-1). The Grizzlies are an excellent shooting team and the last five meetings with Northern Colorado have all gone Over. Tonight's total is actually lower than it was for the first meeting, which seems like a mistake by the oddsmakers. Play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana
|02-22-19||Niagara v. Rider UNDER 156.5||Top||81-97||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* UNDER Niagara-Rider
Back on January 13th, Rider beat Niagara 104-84. That was the game before the Broncs apparenty decided to bankrupt its fanbase. Since that win, which was not surprisingly their best offensive effort of the year, Rider is an unsightly 1-10 at the betting window (ATS) and even more problematic is that they've fallen from 5-0 SU in the conference to just 9-6. But they did win both of their games last week, even covering the spread in one of them. For this rematch with Niagara, I don't see Rider shooting anywhere close to as well as they did in the first meeting (they were 61%). Fortunately for the Broncs, they defend well at home, which will counteract any offensive decline. For the season, they are allowing just 65.2 points per game. That's almost 10 PPG less than their overall season average. So an Under seems to be in order for tonight as Niagara isn't any kind of "great shakes" offensively, plus they're already 10-2 Under in road games. The total is just too high here. Play UNDER Niagara-Rider
|02-20-19||North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 166.5||Top||88-72||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE
The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE
|02-11-19||Portland State v. CS Sacramento OVER 140.5||Top||67-78||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Portland State/Sacramento State
We head to Big Sky country for our top total this week as Sacramento State plays host to Portland State. Neither team is going anywhere this year. Both are near the bottom of the standings, but something else they have in common is a recent string of Unders. Portland State has gone Under five straight times while Sac State is 4-1 Under in its last five games. These rivals played three times last season and the Under was a perfect 3 for 3. Not this time, however. Because of all the Unders, this number comes in low, significantly lower than most of the recent O/U lines for both teams. It'll likely end up being the lowest total for any Portland State game this year and Sac State has only seen a few lower. Portland State is averaging 77 PPG and Sac State averages 78.6 at home. Neither team is great defensively either. Portland State shot just 35% in their last game, but should do much better than that here. The Vikings have let three straight opponents shoot better than 50% as well. Play OVER Portland State-Sacramento State
|02-05-19||Akron v. Toledo OVER 132.5||Top||52-63||Loss||-116||11 h 49 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on OVER Akron-Toledo
This is a number that I expect to be bet up throughout the course of the day. That sounds strange given how Akron games have played out of late and really all season. The Zips are 6-0 Under in the last six games and 15-4 Under overall. But because of that, tonight's total opened way too low. Akron will be facing a Toledo team that is averaging 81.2 PPG in its home arena. The Rockets have gone Under in three straight games themselves, but the previous two both took place out on the road. A return home should reignite their offense. For Toledo, this is a really low total as most of their games are 141.5 or above. This would be the lowest total for any Rockets game all season. So the oddsmakers are being far too conservative in their estimate for the amount of scoring in this game. Akron averages over 70 PPG itself. Play OVER Akron-Toledo
|02-01-19||Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141||Top||59-74||Loss||-115||10 h 29 m||Show|
This is a 10* on OVER Michigan-Iowa
A rough couple games for Michigan now seem to be in the rear view mirror. On January 19th, they suffered their first and only loss of the season, 64-54 at Wisconsin. They followed that up by almost losing to Minnesota at home. But the last seven days have gone much better with the Wolverines winning by double digits against both Indiana (69-46) and Ohio State (65-49). Anytime you allow less than 50 points in back to back games, that's obviously impressive. It's certainly more impressive than what Iowa has done on the defensive end in its last two games. The Hawkeyes have given up 82 and 92 points in losses to Michigan State and Minnesota. They've now allowed 80 or more five times in Big 10 action. While Michigan is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Iowa is 120th. While its obvious who has the edge defensively in this Friday night matchup, don't be surprised if the game still ends up being higher scoring than expected. Iowa does average 84.2 PPG at home. For them, this is a low total, one that should easily go Over as Michigan should score plenty tonight as well. Play OVER Michigan-Iowa
|01-25-19||Butler v. Creighton UNDER 154||Top||61-75||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Butler-Creighton
Both Butler and Creighton are quickly falling off the pace in the Big East. Creighton was at least able to stop the bleeding some with a 91-87 win over Georgetown Monday. That snapped a four-game losing skid. Butler comes in off a loss to Villanova, which was just their second home defeat this season. The focus here is on the total. Butler has gone Over in all seven conference games so far. One of those came against Creighton. Butler won the game 84-69, thanks to getting out to a big first half lead. They shot better than 50% too. But the Bulldogs offensive numbers do drop pretty significantly on the road. So I would not expect another 80+ effort from them tonight. Similarly, Creighton is better on the defensive end here in Omaha. The Bluejays have really struggled to get stops lately, but tonight will be a different story. The number opened as the highest total for any Butler conference game so far. It's too high. Play UNDER Butler-Creighton
|12-08-18||Notre Dame v. UCLA UNDER 151.5||Top||62-65||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the UNDER ND/UCLA.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:
As note that Notre Dame has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road and in nine of its last 13 as a road underdog or pick, while UCLA has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last nine after two straight ATS covers as a favorite.
This number is a little high, play the UNDER.
|04-02-18||Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5||62-79||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the UNDER.
Villanova is the highest-scoring team in the nation, averring 87 PPG. The Wolverines clearly can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the Wildcats. Michigan will be doing everything it can to control the pace of this one and we think that’s going to help in pushing this one UNDER once it’s all said and done. Fatigue is definitely a factor at this point of the season as well. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.
|03-31-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan OVER 128||Top||57-69||Loss||-105||152 h 41 m||Show|
This is a 10* FINAL FOUR TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Loyola Chicago and Michigan.
Loyola-Chicago advanced by beating Kansas State in the Elite Eight, while Michigan for the better of FSU in the last round. These two teams are competent at both ends of the floor. With a few extra days off to rest up and prepare, we’re expecting this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Ramblers average 72 PPG and they allow 62.4. The Wolverines average 74.1 PPG and they concede 63.1. Note though that Loyola Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 16 against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Michigan has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of 13 already this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is a little low, play the OVER.
|03-27-18||Mississippi State v. Penn State OVER 134.5||60-75||Win||100||27 h 3 m||Show|
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Mississippi State and Penn State.
Penn State has advanced with road wins over Notre Dame and Marquette, while Mississippi State has beaten Baylor and Louisville, also both on the road. Now these teams collide at Madison Square Garden and we believe that all signs point to a run and gun shootout. And the numbers/trends support that, as note that Mississippi State has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 17 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 130 and 139.5, while Penn State has seen the total go OVER in 13 of its last 19 against teams with winning records. Both teams are known for their tough defensive play, but Penn State will need to push the pace of this one to keep the Bulldogs out of their comfort zone. This can still be a defensive affair and go OVER this lower number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting.
|03-25-18||Duke v. Kansas UNDER 155.5||Top||81-85||Loss||-110||32 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between Duke and Kansas.
Both teams opened the NCAA Tournament by playing to an “under,” but each has since played to a higher-scoring OVER to reach this point. Duke enters off a 69-65 win over Syracuse, while Kansas held on for an 80-76 win over Clemson. The Blue Devils average 84.4 PPG and they allow 69.2. In the win over the Orange Duke would force 15 turnovers and commit just seven of its own. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it allows 71. After struggling in two games to open the tournament defensively, Kansas looked a lot better against the Tigers by holding htem to 43.1 percent form the floor, including just 30 percent from 3-point range. Note that Duke has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last nine against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Kansas has seen the total go UNDER in ten of 17 this year after scoring 80 points or more. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.
|03-24-18||Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143||Top||54-58||Win||100||37 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between FSU and Michigan.
Both teams are playing at an extremely high level right now. The Seminoles advanced with an impressive 75-60 win over the high-scoring Gonzaga Bulldogs and they’ll be looking for a repeat performance here against a Michigan team which exploded for a 99-72 win over Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. FSU averages 81.1 PPG and it allows 73.7. Michigan averages 73.8 PPG and it allows just 63.1. Note that FSU has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of eight neutral site games already this season, while Michigan has seen the total go UNDER in six of nine this year after scoring 80 points or more. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.
|03-24-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State OVER 126.5||78-62||Win||100||32 h 9 m||Show|
This is an 8* ULTIMATE SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Loyola Illinois and K-State.
Both of these teams are known for their tough defensive play and this can still be a closely contested affair and fly OVER this extremely low total. And that’s exactly what we’re expecting here. Loyola Chicago averages 71.8 points and it allows 62.4. Kansas State averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 63.9. Not surprisingly, neither team has played to too many high-scoring affairs this season, which makes it very important to note that the Ramblers have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four non-conference games, while K-State has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four when the total in the contest is set between 120 and 129.5. This number is just a tad low, play the OVER.
|03-22-18||Texas A&M v. Michigan OVER 133.5||72-99||Win||100||81 h 25 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the OVER between Texas A&M and Michigan.
These are two teams which predicate themselves on their tough defensive play, but we think the conditions are right for a big of a “shootout” (comparatively speaking anyways, as it won’t take much for this one to soar OVER this smaller posted total.) A&M advanced after shocking UNC 86-65 on Sunday and we look for the Aggies to once again push the pace here against the defensive minded Wolverines. Michigan advanced to this point off a tougher than expected 64-63 win over Houston on Saturday. The Aggies average 75.3 PPG and they allow 69.6. The Wolverines average 73.8 PPG and they allow 63.1. Texas A&M now has its “game-plan” for the rest of the tournament, as they’ll be pushing the pace from start to finish. The Wolverines have to put up or get bounced tonight as they look to match pace and survive another round. This number is a little low, play the OVER.
|03-19-18||Eastern Michigan v. Sam Houston State UNDER 135.5||62-69||Win||100||32 h 42 m||Show|
This is an 8* CIT TOP SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between EMU and Sam Houston State.
The Eagles enter off an 83-65 smash job of Niagara, while the Beakats come in off an 89-79 loss to Southeastern Louisiana in the Semifinals of the Southland Tournament. EMU averages 72 PPG and it allows just 66.8. Sam Houston State averages only 71.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 68.1. Note that EMU has seen the total go UNDER the number in 23 of its last 30 following an ATS victory, while Sam Houston State has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven when playing with five or more days rest. Neither team possesses a very adept offense, but each has been dominant on the defensive side of the ball. We’re expecting a very tight, lower-scoring affair. This number is a little high, play the UNDER>
|03-08-18||Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine OVER 129.5||Top||67-68||Win||100||30 h 4 m||Show|
This is a 10* BIG WEST TOURNAMENT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Hawaii and UC Irvine.
This is the first round of the Big West Tournament and it comes from the Honda Center in Anaheim. Hawaii is the No. 6 seed and UC Irvine is No. 3. Both teams come in with momentum, especially the Rainbow Warriors with four wins out of their last six. The Anteaters will be eager to return to form after a difficult double OT loss to UC Davis in their regular season finale, which would have given it the No. 1 seed. Instead UC Davis is at No. 3. These teams split a pair of games this season, with each winning on the road. Note that Hawaii has seen the total go OVER the number in four of six tournament games already this year, while UC Irvine has seen the total go OVER the number in both tournament games that it’s played in this year. These are two potentially dangerous teams and in our opinion, all signs point to a classic shootout. Play the OVER.