|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-15-19||Winnipeg v. BC||Top||33-23||Loss||-104||15 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris.
The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
BC Lions (Moneyline)
|06-14-19||Liberty +13 v. Aces||Top||65-100||Loss||-110||11 h 39 m||Show|
The set-up: After a 2-4 start, the New York Liberty come in on top form having won two straight. Overall the Liberty have averaged 79.7 PPG, while allowing 82. Tina Charles leads the nightly charge with 21.3 points and 9.2 boards per game. Las Vegas has been sliding of late and has fallen back under .500. On the year the Aces average 82.2 PPG and concede 78.6. Kayla McBride leads Las Vegas with 17.2 points and five boards per game. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I believe those trends continue here. Outright win? Unlikely. But I think this will be much more competitive that what this spread would suggest.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Aces are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. New York just beat the Aces at home as a ten point dog (allowed just 35.4 percent shooting in that one.) No ATS revenge today for the home side, grab as many points as you can.
10* GAME OF WEEK LIBERTY
|06-10-19||Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors||Top||106-105||Win||100||58 h 55 m||Show|
The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can.
Golden State Warriors
|06-09-19||Rays v. Red Sox +1.5||Top||6-1||Loss||-140||17 h 20 m||Show|
The set-up: The Red Sox look to salvage the final game of this four game series and even it up. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Blake Snell, while the home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez.
The pitchers: Snell (3-5, 3.68 ERA) was untouchable last year for the most part, but this season it’s been quite the opposite. Snell enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings of work.
Rodriguez (6-3, 4.88) has had difficulty with TB in the past, but he enters on top form, having gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA over his last ten starts, including allowing only two runs over seven frames in a win over the Royals on Tuesday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TB is now just 10-11 (-3.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records, while Boston is 73-44 (+8.8 units) the last two years in all “day” games. I’m laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs.
10* RL BEST IN SHOW
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||109-104||Win||100||57 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home.
The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-21-19||Bucks v. Raptors +2.5||Top||102-120||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.
The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.
|05-18-19||Warriors +2.5 v. Blazers||Top||110-99||Win||100||28 h 24 m||Show|
The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-15-19||Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||100-108||Loss||-105||10 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.
10* COACH’S CLINIC
|05-12-19||Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets||Top||100-96||Win||100||41 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.
Portland Trail Blazers
|05-10-19||Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets||Top||118-113||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-08-19||Celtics +9 v. Bucks||Top||91-116||Loss||-108||13 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight.
The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.
10* BOSTON CELTICS
|05-05-19||Raptors +2 v. 76ers||Top||101-96||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
|04-30-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||Top||102-123||Loss||-110||47 h 25 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.
|04-29-19||Blazers +4 v. Nuggets||Top||113-121||Loss||-102||26 h 8 m||Show|
The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.
Portland Trail Blazers
|04-24-19||Clippers +14 v. Warriors||Top||129-121||Win||100||55 h 45 m||Show|
The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.
|04-23-19||Nets +8 v. 76ers||Top||100-122||Loss||-110||48 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.
|04-20-19||Nuggets +3.5 v. Spurs||Top||117-103||Win||100||27 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4.
The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.
|04-18-19||Nuggets +4 v. Spurs||Top||108-118||Loss||-110||26 h 57 m||Show|
The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.
|04-17-19||Jazz +6.5 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-105||26 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||54 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.
The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.
|04-14-19||Pacers v. Celtics -7||Top||74-84||Win||100||55 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.
|04-10-19||Heat +3.5 v. Nets||Top||94-113||Loss||-110||25 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.
|04-09-19||Grizzlies +10.5 v. Pistons||Top||93-100||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.
|04-07-19||Nuggets +4 v. Blazers||Top||108-115||Loss||-110||14 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well.
The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.
|04-06-19||Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State||Top||61-51||Win||100||33 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.
The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|04-05-19||Celtics +1.5 v. Pacers||Top||117-97||Win||100||24 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1.
The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning.
|04-04-19||Cavs +9.5 v. Kings||Top||104-117||Loss||-110||26 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.
|04-03-19||Rockets +1.5 v. Clippers||Top||135-103||Win||100||28 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.
|03-31-19||Mavs +12 v. Thunder||Top||106-103||Win||100||21 h 11 m||Show|
The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points.
|03-31-19||Auburn +4.5 v. Kentucky||Top||77-71||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.)
The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||75-69||Win||100||23 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|03-29-19||Wizards +12.5 v. Jazz||Top||124-128||Win||100||31 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year.
The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.
|03-28-19||Florida State +7 v. Gonzaga||Top||58-72||Loss||-110||103 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
|03-27-19||Lipscomb v. NC State -2.5||Top||94-93||Loss||-113||27 h 25 m||Show|
Selection: The set-up: NC State hosts Lipscomb in the NIT quarterfinals. The Wolfpack got back Harvard to advance, led by CJ Bryce with 16 points and seven boards. The Bison advanced with an 86-69 rout of North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans, led by 24 points from Rob Marberry.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Lipscomb is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a SU win, while the NC State Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU win and 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home. I’m banking on NC State’s defense and the home town crowd to prove to be too much for the Bison tonight.
NC State Wolfpack
|03-26-19||Presbyterian v. Marshall -4.5||Top||66-83||Win||100||23 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: Two teams with the best names of all time clash in the CIT quarterfinals tonight. The Presbyterian Blue Hose advanced by defeating Robert Morris 77-70. Overall the Blue Hose average 78.6 PPG. The Herd punched their ticket to the quarterfinals are a 78-73 win over IUPUI. Marshall so far has averaged 80.1 PPG.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Hose are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Thundering Herd are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. Marshall also has a huge advantage here by earning the second round bye, as clearly its much more rested. Lay the points.
Marshall Thundering Herd 10* play
|03-25-19||Suns +15 v. Jazz||Top||92-125||Loss||-105||28 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: The Suns have lost three straight, but I think they put up a fight here down the stretch and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Phoenix got 32 points from Devin Booker in the Suns’ most recent setback to the Kings. Utah destroyed the Bulls on the road in their last game (after losing on the road in Atlanta), but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight in its first game back from the extended East coast road trip.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Utah is just 1-2 ATS this season after a huge blowout victory of 30 or more points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
|03-24-19||Cal-Irvine +5.5 v. Oregon||Top||54-73||Loss||-110||38 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: UC Irvine clearly can’t be taken lightly after knocking off K-State in the opening round 70-64. The Anteaters have averaged 107.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Note that UC Irvine has held its opposition to just 40.7 percent shooting from inside the arc, which ranks first in the country. The Ducks smashed Wisconsin 72-54, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this aggressive Anteaters defense. Overall the Ducks average 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 92.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UC Irvine is 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Bank on the Anteaters going down with a fight, but don’t be shocked by the outright either. Either way though, grab the points.
|03-24-19||Nuggets -1 v. Pacers||Top||88-124||Loss||-105||25 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver comes to town off a 111-93 road win over the Knicks, while the Pacers enter off a 112-89 road loss at Golden State on Thursday. Denver has dominated this series of late, winning the last two, including a 102-100 victory in the first matchup on March 16th. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Overall Denver is 7-3 in its last ten, averaging 110.8 points in that span. The Pacers return home after an 0-4 Western road swing. Indiana is averaging 107.7 PPG, while allowing 104.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after playing on two days of rest. I think this is a bad matchup for Indiana and I look for the visitors to keep the good times rolling for at least one more night. Play on Denver.
|03-23-19||Celtics -3.5 v. Hornets||Top||117-124||Loss||-109||26 h 23 m||Show|
The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.
|03-23-19||Maryland v. LSU -2.5||Top||67-69||Loss||-103||25 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range.
The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.
|03-22-19||Washington +3 v. Utah State||Top||78-61||Win||100||117 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.
|03-21-19||Baylor v. Syracuse -2||Top||78-69||Loss||-110||97 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams are similar in that they both employ a 2-3 matchup zone defense. Baylor finished 19-13 and is back dancing after a one-year absence. Only two Baylor players have NCAA Tournament experience. Syracuse finished 20-13 and this will be coach Jim Boeheim’s 34th NCAA Tournament appearance. Syracuse sat out starting guard Tyus Battle in both ACC Tournament games as a precautionary measure because of a sore back, but he’s been returned to go at 100% health in this one.
The pick: The Orange have held opponents to 40 percent shooting for the season and 32.3 percent from range. The Orange are also 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite in the -1 to -7 range, while Baylor is just 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament contests. Lay the points.
|03-21-19||St Francis NY +9 v. Hampton||Top||72-81||Push||0||36 h 44 m||Show|
The set-up: The St. Francis Terriers had a 17-15 record overall, but they’d go 9-7 in league play and a share of the Northeast Championship (they average 71 points, led by 15.1 per game from Jalen Jordan.) Hampton was 9-7 in the Big South, but just 15-16 overall. Hampton is 10-3 at home this year and it averages 81.7 PPG.
The pick: The Pirates though aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side of things and I believe that leaves the door wide open for this under rated Terriers team. Take it for what you will as well, but St. Francis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing a game as road dog, while Hampton is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tournament games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
|03-21-19||Bradley +18.5 v. Michigan State||Top||65-76||Win||100||65 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: Outright victory? Almost assuredly not. I’m not calling for one at all anyways. But I do believe the Bradley Braves come in under the radar here and I believe they can keep this one competitive late. MSU came from behind to knock off Michigan in the Big Ten title game and could easily be still caught up on that big come from behind victory. The Braves won’b be going down without a fight, as they return to The Big Dance for the first time since 2006. Bradley limits its opposition to 41.1 percent shooting and 32.8 percent from range. The Braves had a signature win over Penn State, 59-56 in the Cancun Challenge.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bradley is 11-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 5-0 ATS in all neutral court games, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.
|03-20-19||Arizona State -1 v. St. John's||Top||74-65||Win||100||72 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a tight battle. Despite backing its way down the stretch, ASU has now made back-to-back NCAA Tourney appearances for the first time since the early 80’s. If recent history is any precedence, then the Sun Devils have to be loving their chances today as well as they’d meet the Red Storm in LA last year and beat them 82-70. This is St. John’s first winning season for Chris Mullin since he took over four years ago. St. John’s got out to a quick start in non-conference play and despite a shot in The Big Dance, the team has failed to live up to expectations as far as many are concerned.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. John’s is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 neutral sit games, while ASU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Lay the short points, play on Arizona State.
|03-19-19||Belmont -3.5 v. Temple||Top||81-70||Win||100||48 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: Temple lost 80-74 in the quarterfinals of the ACC to Wichita State on Friday, while Belmont lost 77-65 to Murray State in the title game of the OVC Tournament back on March 9th. These teams have never played against each other. The Owls average 74.8 PPG and they allow 71.2. The Bruins average a whopping 87.4 PPG, while allowing just 73.9.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while the Owls are only 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I think Belmont’s high-octane offense turns out to be the difference in this one. Lay the points.
|03-18-19||Warriors -2.5 v. Spurs||Top||105-111||Loss||-105||22 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.
|03-17-19||76ers +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||130-125||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3.
The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
|03-16-19||Blazers v. Spurs -2||Top||103-108||Win||100||25 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points.
|03-16-19||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||63-73||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.
10* play on Florida State
|03-16-19||Capitals +1.5 v. Lightning||Top||3-6||Loss||-154||13 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game. The Lightning are out to prove their the best team in the league this year and they can prove that with a resounding victory over the defending champs. But clearly Washington won’t be going down without a fight. The Capitals have been great since the All Star break. Washington averages 3.39 goals and it allows 3.07. The Lightning average 3.82 goals and they allow 2.62.
The pick: Washington is 15-9 (+3.4 units) this year after a win by two goals or more and in a game which I expect to be decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Capitals on the puck line.
|03-15-19||Bulls +8.5 v. Clippers||Top||121-128||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.
|03-15-19||Florida State +9 v. Virginia||Top||69-59||Win||100||13 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.
|03-15-19||Florida v. LSU -2||Top||76-73||Loss||-110||17 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.
10* play on LSU
|03-14-19||Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5||Top||62-57||Loss||-109||29 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State +1.5||Top||63-65||Win||100||20 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.
|03-13-19||Georgia v. Missouri -3||Top||61-71||Win||100||23 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.
|03-12-19||Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers||Top||125-104||Win||100||16 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points.
|03-11-19||San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5||Top||62-69||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.
|03-10-19||Liberty +7 v. Lipscomb||Top||74-68||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards.
The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.
|03-09-19||Hornets +12.5 v. Bucks||Top||114-131||Loss||-109||15 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points.
|03-08-19||St. Joe's +12.5 v. VCU||Top||63-75||Win||100||25 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair.
The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points.
|03-07-19||Cincinnati v. UCF -2||Top||55-58||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge.
|03-06-19||76ers -5 v. Bulls||Top||107-108||Loss||-105||14 h 13 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|03-06-19||St Bonaventure +6 v. Davidson||Top||46-64||Loss||-108||13 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war.
|03-04-19||Clippers v. Lakers -4||Top||113-105||Loss||-108||16 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9.
The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points.
|03-04-19||Virginia v. Syracuse +7||Top||79-53||Loss||-115||13 h 33 m||Show|
The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions.
The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points.
|03-02-19||Thunder +3 v. Spurs||Top||102-116||Loss||-103||11 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I think the Thunder “come to play” tonight. A date vs. the “on again, off again” Spurs is just what the doctor ordered. San Antonio did break a three-game losing skid with a win at home over Detroit last time out, but if it’s shown anything this year, it’s been inconsistency in form from one game to the next. Despite not having the services of Paul George, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can take advantage.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog, while SA is just 9-13 ATS off a home victory this year. This one has upset written all over it.
|03-01-19||Blazers +5 v. Raptors||Top||117-119||Win||100||14 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Two of the hottest teams in the league collide North of the Border Friday night and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Sure the Blazers are going to stumble at some point, but Portland has easily destroyed all of its Eastern competition since coming out of the All Star break. The Blazers come to Toronto on a five game win streak after easily dispatching the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday. Toronto bounced back from a loss to the Magic to beat Boston as well. But Portland won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note that the Blazers had lost five straight in this series before a convincing 128-122 home win on December 14th in the lone meeting so far this season.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points.
|03-01-19||Rhode Island +8 v. Dayton||Top||72-70||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points.
|02-28-19||Jazz v. Nuggets -6||Top||111-104||Loss||-113||27 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: Utah comes in off a come from behind 111-105 win over the Clippers just last night and I think it’ll have difficulty mustering up enough energy to contend with the Nuggets in the thin Denver air. So far these clubs have split a pair of meetings, but the home side actually plays with revenge after dropping the last one 114-108 in Utah on January 23rd. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in the second game of back-to-backs this year, but fatigue is definitely a major factor in my opinion at this point of the season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while Utah is a terrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 when playing the second game of a back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.
|02-28-19||Xavier +6 v. St. John's||Top||84-73||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova -5||Top||61-67||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points.
|02-26-19||Syracuse +12 v. North Carolina||Top||85-93||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points.
|02-25-19||76ers +1 v. Pelicans||Top||111-110||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: New Orleans rallied for an impressive win over LBJ and the Lakers without star player Anthony Davis in the line-up, but I think the team will have a hard time mustering up the same energy vs. their non-conference opponent today. The 76ers’ four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. the Blazers at home and while they’ll be without their big man Joel Embiid tonight, they won’t be lacking for motivation. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112.3. The Pelicans on the other hand average 115.7 PPG and they allow 115.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. This one has upset written all over it. Grab the points.
|02-25-19||Oklahoma +9 v. Iowa State||Top||61-78||Loss||-108||9 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State.
The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points.
|02-24-19||Spurs v. Knicks +8.5||Top||118-130||Win||100||22 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs come in dejected, still thinking about their 120-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday. The Knicks enter off a 115-104 loss to Minnesota on Friday night. San Antonio continues to struggle away from friendly confines though during its annual “Rodeo road trip,” now just 1-5 after the setback in Canada. The margin for error is slim most nights for the Spurs, who average 112.4 PPG and who allow 111.5.
The pick: The Knicks are in full rebuild mode, but they feature some talent and I think this is a great overall “spot” for this new look side to be competitive. Note that San Antonio is just 14-16 ATS on the road, while New York is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a non-conference games. I’m grabbing the points.
|02-24-19||Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan||Top||77-70||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|02-23-19||South Florida +13.5 v. Houston||Top||59-71||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|02-23-19||Blazers v. 76ers -2||Top||130-115||Loss||-110||20 h 33 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories to open the second half, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Portland posted the 113-99 road win in Brooklyn, while Philly held on for a 106-102 home win over Miami. The 76ers though play with revenge this afternoon after they lost 129-95 at Portland on December 30th. The Blazers average 113.3 PPG and they allow 110.1. The 76ers average 115.7 PPG and they allow 1112.
The pick: Note though that Philadelphia is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the visitors are still just 11-15 ATS on the road this year. I think the home side pulls away down the stretch for the convincing victory. Lay the short points.
|02-22-19||Jazz v. Thunder -3.5||Top||147-148||Loss||-107||25 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: The Thunder dropped their final game before the All Star break to the Pelicans, but previous to that they’d won four in a row. The Jazz lost to the Warriors in their final game before the break. Utah’s achilles heel this year has been its play on the road and I think that trend of futility comes back to haunt it again here vs. the rested and focused Thunder side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Utah is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Westbrook, George and the home side to all send an early message with a resounding effort. Lay the points.
|02-22-19||Davidson -2 v. Rhode Island||Top||75-66||Win||100||25 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.
|02-21-19||SIU-Edwardsville v. Tennessee State -6.5||Top||85-84||Loss||-105||26 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points.
|02-21-19||Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks||Top||97-98||Win||100||25 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Jayson Tatum of the Cetlics predicted that his team would win the Championship this year over the All Star break. Whether or not that bold prediction comes true will come with time, but I do think that the C’s can keep this one competitive, if not even take it outright. Boston scored the 118-110 home win over Detroit in its final game before the break, while Milwaukee earned the 106-97 road win over Indiana in its latest action. These teams have been competitive this year, having split two games thus far. Boston averages 113 PPG and it allows 106.6. The Bucks average 116.9 PPG and they allow 107.1.
The pick: With Kyrie Irving expected to suit up tonight, the Celtics become even more dangerous in the first game back from the break. Note that the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Bucks are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points.
|02-20-19||Louisville v. Syracuse -1||Top||49-69||Win||100||22 h 43 m||Show|
The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange.
|02-19-19||Florida State +1 v. Clemson||Top||77-64||Win||100||15 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points.
|02-17-19||George Mason v. St Bonaventure -3||Top||56-79||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies.