|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-18-19||Warriors -2.5 v. Spurs||Top||105-111||Loss||-105||22 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.
|03-17-19||76ers +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||130-125||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3.
The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
|03-17-19||Auburn v. Tennessee -4.5||84-64||Loss||-109||6 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Auburn enters the SEC Tournament final on a seven-game win streak. Most recently the Tigers beat Florida 65-62 yesterday, going 13 of 28 from range. Note though that Tennessee plays with revenge here after it fell 84-80 at Auburn on March 9th in the regular season finale. The Vols come in off an impressive 82-78 win over favored Kentucky and I think they carry that momentum over here. And with a win today, the Vols will punch their ticket to a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Tournament.
The pick: Auburn plays its fourth game in four days and I believe it comes out flat and tired here. Look for the up-tempo Vols to push the pace, to avenge the regular season finale loss, to earn the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tourney and to be crowned the SEC Tournament winner. Lay the points.
|03-16-19||Blazers v. Spurs -2||Top||103-108||Win||100||25 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points.
|03-16-19||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion||56-62||Win||100||15 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: This is the Conference USA Tournament Final from the Ford Center in Texas. ODU got past Louisiana Tech and UAB, while WKU got the better of UNT and Southern Miss. Both teams have plenty of momentum, but ODU is a difficult matchup for WKU, especially Players Of The Year in BJ Stith, who had ten points and ten boards in his teams 57-56 win over Louisiana Tech.
The pick: These teams have played twice this year, and ODU is 2-0, winning by a combined seven points. However note that WKU is 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while ODU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU victories. Third time isn’t a charm for WKU. Play on Old Dominion.
|03-16-19||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||63-73||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.
10* play on Florida State
|03-16-19||Capitals +1.5 v. Lightning||Top||3-6||Loss||-154||13 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game. The Lightning are out to prove their the best team in the league this year and they can prove that with a resounding victory over the defending champs. But clearly Washington won’t be going down without a fight. The Capitals have been great since the All Star break. Washington averages 3.39 goals and it allows 3.07. The Lightning average 3.82 goals and they allow 2.62.
The pick: Washington is 15-9 (+3.4 units) this year after a win by two goals or more and in a game which I expect to be decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Capitals on the puck line.
|03-16-19||Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5||55-67||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Wisconsin finished 22-9 and MSU was 25-6. Michigan State was never in any real danger in its 77-70 win over Ohio State yesterday, however it did not cover the 12.5 points spread. Wisconsin though comes in dog tired here after its 66-62 win over Nebraska on Friday. The Spartans handled the Badgers 67-59 on the road in mid February and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Overall Wisconsin is averaging 69.6 PPG, while allowing 61.2. MSU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 66.
The pick: This is a bad matchup for Happ and the Badgers. Take it for what you will as well, but Wisconsin is still just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 revenging a loss where the team score less than 60 points in, while MSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less. Lay the points.
|03-15-19||Bulls +8.5 v. Clippers||Top||121-128||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.
|03-15-19||Florida State +9 v. Virginia||Top||69-59||Win||100||13 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.
|03-15-19||Florida v. LSU -2||Top||76-73||Loss||-110||17 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.
10* play on LSU
|03-14-19||Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5||Top||62-57||Loss||-109||29 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State +1.5||Top||63-65||Win||100||20 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.
|03-13-19||Georgia v. Missouri -3||Top||61-71||Win||100||23 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.
|03-13-19||Clemson v. NC State +1||58-59||Win||100||16 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game, as many believe the winner will then punch its ticket to the Big Dance. Both teams went 9-9 in conference play. The victor of this one will also go on to face Virginia in Thursday’s ACC semi-final. Clemson comes in having won two straight and four of its last five, but NC State has to be feeling confident here after taking the first game vs. the Tigers 69-67 at home back on January 26th. NC State destroyed Boston College 73-47 last weekend, posting its best defensive performance of the entire season. I think the Tigers are in trouble here.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court games this year and only 5-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while the Wolfpack are 2-0 ATS in all neutral court games this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. Play on NC State.
|03-12-19||Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers||Top||125-104||Win||100||16 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points.
|03-11-19||San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5||Top||62-69||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.
|03-10-19||Suns +17 v. Warriors||115-111||Win||100||23 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: The Suns had been competitive over the last month, but they couldn’t continue that momentum in a 127-117 loss in Portland just last night. The Warriors have had some issues since the All Star game (like getting blown out at home to the Celtics recently), but it still comes in having won three of its last four. That included a blowout victory at home over the Nuggets most recently. But with mighty defending champs expected to rest starters tonight, I think the door is wide open for the young visiting side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this season after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games, while Golden State is just 12-19 ATS as a home favorite this year. Too many points. Grab them.
|03-10-19||Rockets v. Mavs +8||94-93||Win||100||21 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: I think the Rockets, who come in having won seven straight, get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. The Mavericks though come in hungry as they look to break a four-game slide. Houston has been playing at an elite level for a while now and knocked off some big teams in the process (Warriors at Oracle to start the seven game streak and 76ers at home most recently.) All good things must come to an end though and while I’m not calling for the outright, I think the visitors do come in a bit complacent here. Dallas has been competitive and I expect it to go down fighting.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is a poor 6-13 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Dallas is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points.
|03-10-19||Liberty +7 v. Lipscomb||Top||74-68||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards.
The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.
|03-10-19||Bulls v. Pistons -8||108-131||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: The Pistons posted a come from behind 112-104 road win in Chicago on Friday and I expect them to lay the hammer down here as well in the second game of the home-and-home set. Detroit simply dominates this series, having taken all three meetings so far. The Bulls’ little surge from a month ago is now in the rear view mirror after losing three of their last four. The Bulls average 104.9 PPG and they concede 112.4. Detroit averages 107.8 PPG and it allows 107.8 as well.
The pick: Note though that the Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six at home and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. teams with a losing SU record, while Chicago is a poor 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Detroit has the foot on the gas. It was in 11th sot in the East a month ago, but it’s now in sixth. Clearly the Pistons are “firing on all cylinders” right now. Lay the points.
|03-10-19||Houston v. Cincinnati -2||85-69||Loss||-108||5 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: Houston comes in off a 90-79 home win over SMU, while Cincinnati looks to close the regular season on a winning note after dropping a a tight 58-55 game at UCF in its latest action. Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after falling 65-58 at Houston in the first meeting. The Bearcats are also in a “must win” situation here to earn a tie for top spot in the AAC with Houston. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for Cincinnati in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Houston is just 2-4 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points in its previous outing, while the Bearcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Lay the short points.
|03-09-19||Hornets +12.5 v. Bucks||Top||114-131||Loss||-109||15 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points.
|03-09-19||St. John's v. Xavier -2.5||68-81||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams are tied for third at 8-9 with five other schools. This is a big game, as the winner could potentially earn the No. 3 seed in the upcoming tournament. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Red Storm have zero momentum after losing three of their last four, most recently getting smoked 92-83 at DePaul Sunday. St. John’s is 3-5 on the road in conference play, allowing 79 PPG. St. John’s has lost seven straight in this series and it’s just 1-4 at Xavier since the Big East reconfigured in 2013. Xavier is on the bubble as well and it’ll be out to bounce back on Seniors Night after a 71-66 loss at Butler on Tuesday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home game svs. a team with an above .500 road record, while St. John’s is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick. Lay the short points.
|03-09-19||Baylor +7.5 v. Kansas||70-78||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: Baylor is still basically “on the bubble,” so a signature road victory in its season finale would seal the deal. The Bears currently site one game behind Kansas in the conference standings, so to say this is a big game would be an understatement. Baylor comes in focused after back-to-back losses. The Bears average 113.9 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.1 points per 100 possessions. However note that Byalor has given up just 97.9 points per 100 possessions during league play. Kansas broke a two-game slide with an 81-68 win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks average 113.7 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.8 in league play.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Kansas is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning SU record, while Baylor is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Grab the points.
|03-09-19||Tennessee -2 v. Auburn||80-84||Loss||-130||6 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: The Vols come in off a 71-54 home win over Mississippi State to move to 15 in league play, while the Tigers are 10-7 after beating Alabama on the road. The Vols are in a fight with LSU for the top spot, but regardless they’re still projected to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA. The Vols look to keep the foot on the gas after three straight wins. Overall Tennessee averages 82.4 PPG and it allows 67.1. Auburn has won three straight as well. The Tigers average 79.9 PPG and they allow 68.1.
The pick: Take it for what you will though but Tennessee is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a road favorite or pick, while Auburn is 0-3 ATS as a home dog or pick and 0-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. Tennessee is the correct call here, lay the short points.
|03-08-19||St. Joe's +12.5 v. VCU||Top||63-75||Win||100||25 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair.
The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points.
|03-07-19||Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas State +3||72-73||Win||100||22 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: Louisiana Monroe comes in off a deflating 97-91 home loss to Coastal Carolina on Saturday. Arkansas State is looking to rebound as well after an 81-70 road loss to Georgia Southern over the weekend. But the Red Wolves have to be feeling confident here, because they already took the first meeting between the teams 85-75 on the road on January 6th. Louisiana Monroe has alternated wins and losses over its last six. Overall the Warhawks average 78.5 PPG and they allow 75.2. Arkansas State still has a chance to move up out of ninth place and there’s no better opportunity than this one. The Red Wolves average 73.5 PPG and they allow 77.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Louisiana Monroe is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, while Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a war until the end between these two hungry teams.
|03-07-19||Cincinnati v. UCF -2||Top||55-58||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge.
|03-06-19||76ers -5 v. Bulls||Top||107-108||Loss||-105||14 h 13 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|03-06-19||St Bonaventure +6 v. Davidson||Top||46-64||Loss||-108||13 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war.
|03-05-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State -4.5||64-73||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hokies come in off a confidence building 77-72 home win over Duke to improve to 11-6 in league action, while the Seminoles moved to 11-5 within the ACC after their 78-73 home win over NC State. VT enters on top form, but I think it’ll have a difficult time in this difficult road venue. Overall the Hokies average 74.5 PPG and they allow 61.5. FSU has won ten of its last 11 league games. The Seminoles are 14-1 SU at home this year. In those contests they’ve averaged 79.5 PPG and allowed 67.9.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-2 ATS in the last ten home games in this series, while VT is still only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. I look for these strong trends to continue. Lay the points.
|03-05-19||Xavier v. Butler -3.5||66-71||Win||100||12 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: Xavier comes in off an 84-73 road win over St. John’s, but I think it’ll struggle to duplicate that same energy for a second straight contest away from friendly confines. Butler won’t be lacking for motivation here either. The Bulldogs come in off a humbling 75-54 loss to Villanova and will be eager to atone for that mess. They also play with revenge here after falling 70-69 on the road in the first matchup this season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is still only 4-6 ATS on the road this year. Butler on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as home favorite in the 2.5 to 6 points range. Everything points to a blowout. Lay the points.
|03-04-19||Clippers v. Lakers -4||Top||113-105||Loss||-108||16 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9.
The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points.
|03-04-19||Northern Arizona +15 v. Montana||64-66||Win||100||15 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: Northern Arizona comes in hungry after back-to-back losses and defeats in six of its last eight. Most recently UNA lost 84-73 to Montana State. Northern Arizona is led by Jonahtan Andre weigh 13.4 points and 8.4 boards per game. overall the Lumberjacks average 73.2 PPG. Montana enters off a 70-54 win over Southern Utah. Montana averages 77.3 PPG.
The pick: Montana though is a terrible 3-8 ATS in conference home games. The Lumberjacks play with revenge here as well after the Grizzlies took the first meeting on the road. I’m not calling for the outright, but all signs point to a closer battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.
|03-04-19||Virginia v. Syracuse +7||Top||79-53||Loss||-115||13 h 33 m||Show|
The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions.
The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points.
|03-02-19||Thunder +3 v. Spurs||Top||102-116||Loss||-103||11 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I think the Thunder “come to play” tonight. A date vs. the “on again, off again” Spurs is just what the doctor ordered. San Antonio did break a three-game losing skid with a win at home over Detroit last time out, but if it’s shown anything this year, it’s been inconsistency in form from one game to the next. Despite not having the services of Paul George, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can take advantage.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog, while SA is just 9-13 ATS off a home victory this year. This one has upset written all over it.
|03-02-19||Washington State v. California||69-76||Win||100||21 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: Cal had lost 16 in a row before upsetting Washington Thursday and now the Golden Bears look to make it tow in a row. A date vs. WSU, who was blowout out by Stanford is just what the doctor ordered for Cal. The Golden Bears looked great in the win over the Huskies, out-rebounding Washington 29-26 and committing only 11 turnovers vs. one of the conference’s top defensive units. Not surprisingly, Cal plays with revenge here as well after falling 82-59 in WSU last month. The undermanned Cougars’ 98-50 loss to the Cardinal is a sign of things to come for WSU down the stretch in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WSU is just 3-6 ATS on the road this year, while Cal is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a win vs. a conference rival. Look for the Bears to build momentum at the end of the season and to avenge the earlier loss.
|03-02-19||Wofford v. Samford +9||85-64||Loss||-106||16 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: The Terriers are 25-4. Wofford hasn’t lost a game since mid December. I think the mighty visiting side gets classically caught looking past its lowly opponent today. The Samford Bulldogs are 16-14. Samford had won three straight, but the Bulldogs come into this one motivated after three straight losses.
The pick: The last time these teams matched up, Samford gave the Terriers all they could handle in a 107-106 Wofford victory. The conditions are right for another competitive affair in my opinion, so grab the points.
|03-02-19||Michigan State -5.5 v. Indiana||62-63||Loss||-112||14 h 57 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s payback time. The Hoosiers won the reverse fixture 79-75 earlier in the year and I think that the visitors avenge that setback. The Spartans come to town off a 77-70 road win over Michigan to improve to 14-3 in league play. Indiana is just 5-12 in the Big Ten, but it looks poised for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after its 75-73 OT win at home over Wisconsin at home last time out. Overall MSU averages 80.1 PPG and it allows 65.8. The Hoosiers average 70.4 PPG and they concede 67.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while MSU is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 following a SU win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Lay the points, expect a beatdown.
|03-01-19||Blazers +5 v. Raptors||Top||117-119||Win||100||14 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Two of the hottest teams in the league collide North of the Border Friday night and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Sure the Blazers are going to stumble at some point, but Portland has easily destroyed all of its Eastern competition since coming out of the All Star break. The Blazers come to Toronto on a five game win streak after easily dispatching the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday. Toronto bounced back from a loss to the Magic to beat Boston as well. But Portland won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note that the Blazers had lost five straight in this series before a convincing 128-122 home win on December 14th in the lone meeting so far this season.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points.
|03-01-19||Rhode Island +8 v. Dayton||Top||72-70||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points.
|02-28-19||Jazz v. Nuggets -6||Top||111-104||Loss||-113||27 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: Utah comes in off a come from behind 111-105 win over the Clippers just last night and I think it’ll have difficulty mustering up enough energy to contend with the Nuggets in the thin Denver air. So far these clubs have split a pair of meetings, but the home side actually plays with revenge after dropping the last one 114-108 in Utah on January 23rd. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in the second game of back-to-backs this year, but fatigue is definitely a major factor in my opinion at this point of the season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while Utah is a terrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 when playing the second game of a back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.
|02-28-19||Xavier +6 v. St. John's||Top||84-73||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire.
|02-27-19||Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5||119-125||Win||100||13 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: LA comes in as the “hungrier” team here. The Lakers have lost two straight and they’ll be desperate to start stringing some wins together to get back into the playoff picture. New Orleans comes in off a home loss to Philadelphia and I think it’ll struggle to match pace with this focused Lakers team. Note as well that the Lakers just lost in New Orleans last week when the Pelicans had star player Anthony Davis on the sidelines. This is an immediate revenge scenario for The King and I’m expecting him to step up and deliver the goods.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog of six points or less, while LA is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss against an opponent that scored 110 points or more. The table is set for a rout. Lay the points.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova -5||Top||61-67||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points.
|02-27-19||Pacers v. Mavs +1||101-110||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think the Pacers get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent here. After winning two straight the Pacers were dumped by a desperate Pistons team last time out. The Mavericks don’t have that same luxury though, as they’ve lost five straight, most recently to the Clippers on Monday. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 13-16 ATS on the road this year, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points.
|02-26-19||Stars +1.5 v. Golden Knights||1-4||Loss||-152||14 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in desperate for a win. Dallas comes in off a much-needed 4-3 win over Chicago, while the Knights enter having lost three straight. Dallas also plays with revenge here after a 4-2 loss in the only other meeting between the clubs. The Knights obtained Mark Stone from the Senators, but he’s not expected to suit up here. Las Vegas is struggling with offensive consistency and I think that trend continues here.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 16-10 (+5.3 units) in its last 26 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Las Vegas is just 2-4 in its last six home games following a three games or more losing streak. I’m laying the very reasonable mid sized price for the extra insurance. Play on the Stars on the puck line.
|02-26-19||Syracuse +12 v. North Carolina||Top||85-93||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points.
|02-26-19||Celtics +4 v. Raptors||95-118||Loss||-103||12 h 43 m||Show|
The set-up: Boston is in desperation mode here after losing four of its last six. The Celtics come in averaging 112.8 PPG and allowing 106.8. Toronto has won eight of its last ten. The Raptors average 114.1 points per game and they allow 108.9. These teams are evenly matched, but I think Boston is the much more motivated/hungry side
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Toronto is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest. These teams are evenly matched. I’m grabbing the points.
|02-25-19||76ers +1 v. Pelicans||Top||111-110||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: New Orleans rallied for an impressive win over LBJ and the Lakers without star player Anthony Davis in the line-up, but I think the team will have a hard time mustering up the same energy vs. their non-conference opponent today. The 76ers’ four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. the Blazers at home and while they’ll be without their big man Joel Embiid tonight, they won’t be lacking for motivation. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112.3. The Pelicans on the other hand average 115.7 PPG and they allow 115.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. This one has upset written all over it. Grab the points.
|02-25-19||Oklahoma +9 v. Iowa State||Top||61-78||Loss||-108||9 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State.
The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points.
|02-24-19||Spurs v. Knicks +8.5||Top||118-130||Win||100||22 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs come in dejected, still thinking about their 120-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday. The Knicks enter off a 115-104 loss to Minnesota on Friday night. San Antonio continues to struggle away from friendly confines though during its annual “Rodeo road trip,” now just 1-5 after the setback in Canada. The margin for error is slim most nights for the Spurs, who average 112.4 PPG and who allow 111.5.
The pick: The Knicks are in full rebuild mode, but they feature some talent and I think this is a great overall “spot” for this new look side to be competitive. Note that San Antonio is just 14-16 ATS on the road, while New York is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a non-conference games. I’m grabbing the points.
|02-24-19||Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan||Top||77-70||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|02-23-19||South Florida +13.5 v. Houston||Top||59-71||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|02-23-19||Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +4||67-59||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Notre Dame won’t be lacking for motivation here as its lost eight of its last ten. The Hokies’ two game win streak was snapped last time out in a setback to Virginia on Monday. And with a game vs. No. 1 Duke up next, not only does this set up as a “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead.” The Irish also play with the added incentive of “revenge” after falling 81-66 at VT on January 1st.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 4-9 ATS vs. the conference, while ND is 7-3 ATS in its last ten revering a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Grab the points.
|02-23-19||Florida State +7 v. North Carolina||59-77||Loss||-109||9 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: UNC enters off a big upset win over Duke, which has propelled it into a three-way tie for first place in the ACC. FSU is 9-4 in league play and in the fourth spot. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Tar Heels though after their win over the Blue Devils. The Seminoles come in on top form as well, having won eight straight after an impressive 77-64 road win over Clemson on Tuesday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 3-1 ATS already this season as an underdog, while UNC is just 2-5 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games. I’m expecting a “nail biter.” Grab the points.
|02-23-19||Blazers v. 76ers -2||Top||130-115||Loss||-110||20 h 33 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories to open the second half, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Portland posted the 113-99 road win in Brooklyn, while Philly held on for a 106-102 home win over Miami. The 76ers though play with revenge this afternoon after they lost 129-95 at Portland on December 30th. The Blazers average 113.3 PPG and they allow 110.1. The 76ers average 115.7 PPG and they allow 1112.
The pick: Note though that Philadelphia is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the visitors are still just 11-15 ATS on the road this year. I think the home side pulls away down the stretch for the convincing victory. Lay the short points.
|02-22-19||Jazz v. Thunder -3.5||Top||147-148||Loss||-107||25 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: The Thunder dropped their final game before the All Star break to the Pelicans, but previous to that they’d won four in a row. The Jazz lost to the Warriors in their final game before the break. Utah’s achilles heel this year has been its play on the road and I think that trend of futility comes back to haunt it again here vs. the rested and focused Thunder side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Utah is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Westbrook, George and the home side to all send an early message with a resounding effort. Lay the points.
|02-22-19||Davidson -2 v. Rhode Island||Top||75-66||Win||100||25 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.
|02-22-19||Wizards v. Hornets -5||110-123||Win||100||23 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: Neither team has lived up to expectations this year. Injuries and other issues have led to a 24-34 record for the Wizards and a 27-30 record for the Hornets. Washington lost 129-120 on the road in Toronto most recently, while the Hornets fell 127-89 on the road to Orlando in their final game before the All Star break. The Wizards look impotent though, going into the break with two straight losses and five in seven. Washington averages 113.9 PPG and it allows 116.9. The Hornets won’t be lacking for motivation here though either after dropping two in a row and four of five. But the Hornets still hold the seventh spot in the East and I think that the extra time off couldn’t have come at a better time. Charlotte averages 110.8 PPG and it allows 111.3.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 8-21 ATS on the road this year, while Charlotte is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 at home. Look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.
|02-21-19||SIU-Edwardsville v. Tennessee State -6.5||Top||85-84||Loss||-105||26 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points.
|02-21-19||Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks||Top||97-98||Win||100||25 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Jayson Tatum of the Cetlics predicted that his team would win the Championship this year over the All Star break. Whether or not that bold prediction comes true will come with time, but I do think that the C’s can keep this one competitive, if not even take it outright. Boston scored the 118-110 home win over Detroit in its final game before the break, while Milwaukee earned the 106-97 road win over Indiana in its latest action. These teams have been competitive this year, having split two games thus far. Boston averages 113 PPG and it allows 106.6. The Bucks average 116.9 PPG and they allow 107.1.
The pick: With Kyrie Irving expected to suit up tonight, the Celtics become even more dangerous in the first game back from the break. Note that the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Bucks are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points.
|02-20-19||Louisville v. Syracuse -1||Top||49-69||Win||100||22 h 43 m||Show|
The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange.
|02-19-19||Florida State +1 v. Clemson||Top||77-64||Win||100||15 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points.