|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-23-19||White Sox +1.5 v. Astros||4-0||Win||100||23 h 43 m||Show|
The set-up: This has been a competitive series, as Chicago earned the victory last night as a big underdog. With its ace on the mound, it has to be feeling confident it can earn the split of this four game series. But in a game which I see being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to play this one on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito, while the home side counters with Corbin Martin.
The pitchers: Giolito (5-1, 3.35 ERA) comes in on top form, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.93 ERA over his previous three starts.
Martin (1-0, 3.86) gave up three runs off five hits over four innings in his second career start at Boston on Saturday.
The pick: Clearly the book is still out on Martin. Giolito has struggled against the Astros in the past, but he’s clearly “coming into his own” now. This is a “different” Giolito and I expect him to keep his team in this one late.
Chicago White Sox +1.5
|05-21-19||Bucks v. Raptors +2.5||Top||102-120||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.
The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.
|05-21-19||Sharks +1.5 v. Blues||1-5||Loss||-200||23 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: The Sharks are on the brink of elimination and in a game which I think is going to be decided late or even in extra time, I have no issues at all in laying the steeper price for the extra 1.5 goals. San Jose has only one goal over its last two games, but overall the Sharks come in averaging 3.67 goals this year. Jordan Binnington has been exceptional in net for St. Louis, but one has to wonder when the rookie will have a letdown? I have a hard time seeing this talented Sharks offense being held down for a third straight game and in this elimination scenario.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 8-2 (+5.2 units) this year after scoring one goals or less i its previous contest, while St. Louis is only 4-5 (-1.7 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game.
San Jose Sharks (+1.5)
|05-18-19||Warriors +2.5 v. Blazers||Top||110-99||Win||100||28 h 24 m||Show|
The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-15-19||Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||100-108||Loss||-105||10 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.
10* COACH’S CLINIC
|05-12-19||Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers||0-6||Loss||-162||18 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: The Nationals rallied for a late win last night. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames again this evening, I think laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the sharp move. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu.
The pitchers: Strasburg (3-2, 3.71 ERA) is 2-4 with a 2.64 ERA in nine starts vs. the Dodgers. He took a no-decision last time out despite posting 11 K’s.
Ryu (4-1, 2.03) is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3’s innings in his career vs. the Nats.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 6-2 (+6.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +105 to +150 range, while LA is just 18-21 (-11.2 units) in its last 39 with a home money line in the -105 to -150 range. Lay the price, grab the runs.
Washington Nationals +1.5
|05-12-19||Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets||Top||100-96||Win||100||41 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.
Portland Trail Blazers
|05-10-19||Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets||Top||118-113||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-08-19||Celtics +9 v. Bucks||Top||91-116||Loss||-108||13 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight.
The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.
10* BOSTON CELTICS
|05-05-19||Raptors +2 v. 76ers||Top||101-96||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
|04-30-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||Top||102-123||Loss||-110||47 h 25 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.
|04-29-19||Blazers +4 v. Nuggets||Top||113-121||Loss||-102||26 h 8 m||Show|
The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.
Portland Trail Blazers
|04-28-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||112-90||Win||100||26 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams dominated in their opening round series. I think we have to take the Bucks’ four game sweep of the Pistons with a grain of salt though, as Detroit played without star Blake Griffin for most of it. Boston steamrolled the Pacers by averaging 99.3 PPG and allowing only 91.8. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG and it allowed 98.
The pick: Boston comes in peaking at the right time here though. The Celtics have a ton of depth and experience and they have the ability to win this one outright. Note that the C’s are 5-0 ATS their last five on the road, while the Bucks are a terrible 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 when playing on three or more days rest. The outright is possible, but grab the points.
|04-24-19||Clippers +14 v. Warriors||Top||129-121||Win||100||55 h 45 m||Show|
The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.
|04-23-19||Nets +8 v. 76ers||Top||100-122||Loss||-110||48 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.
|04-20-19||Nuggets +3.5 v. Spurs||Top||117-103||Win||100||27 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4.
The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.
|04-18-19||Nuggets +4 v. Spurs||Top||108-118||Loss||-110||26 h 57 m||Show|
The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.
|04-17-19||Jazz +6.5 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-105||26 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||54 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.
The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.
|04-14-19||Pacers v. Celtics -7||Top||74-84||Win||100||55 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.
|04-13-19||Nets +5.5 v. 76ers||111-102||Win||100||18 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: You’d think that Philadelphia would have a clear advantage in this matchup, but in the regular season that wasn’t the case, as these team’s split four meetings. Overall Brooklyn averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 112.3. D’Angelo Russell averages 26.7 points and 8.1 assists per game. The 76ers average 115.2 PPG and they allow 112.5. Joel Embiid averages 28 points and 11.6 boards per game.
The pick: Take it for what you will though but Brooklyn is 25-16 ATS on the road this year, while Philadelphia is just 27-31 ATS as a favorite this year. These two team’s are both very deep and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.
|04-10-19||Heat +3.5 v. Nets||Top||94-113||Loss||-110||25 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.
|04-09-19||Blazers v. Lakers +9||104-101||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Outright victory? Probably not. But the Lakers look more competitive now than at any other time this season and after back-to-back victories, I look for the home side to push the Blazers to brink here as well. The Blazers come in off a tough home win over the Nuggets and a “letdown/trap” looks imminent in my opinion. Note that Denver was playing without its top three players as well in that one, as Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray were all sitting out.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 7-8 ATS this year as well following a division game, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.
|04-09-19||Grizzlies +10.5 v. Pistons||Top||93-100||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.
|04-07-19||Nuggets +4 v. Blazers||Top||108-115||Loss||-110||14 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well.
The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.
|04-07-19||Nets +3.5 v. Pacers||108-96||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 133-128 road win over Milwaukee and I think it carries that momentum over here. Indiana comes in off a 117-97 home loss to Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this surging Nets side. To say this is a “revenge” game as well would be a huge understatement, as the Pacers have won nine straight in the series, including two already this season. Neither team can let the foot off the gas as the playoffs loom, but from a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up fantastic for the visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing SU record, while the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I’m grabbing the points, but I won’t be shocked by an outright upset.
|04-06-19||Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State||Top||61-51||Win||100||33 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.
The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|04-05-19||Celtics +1.5 v. Pacers||Top||117-97||Win||100||24 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1.
The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning.
|04-04-19||Cavs +9.5 v. Kings||Top||104-117||Loss||-110||26 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.
|04-04-19||Blue Jays +1.5 v. Indians||1-4||Loss||-144||22 h 29 m||Show|
The set-up: I’m laying the price for the extra run-and-a-half. This is the opener of a four-game series. Cleveland is hitting just .160 collectively right now and it’s struck out 58 times. In a game which I believe will be decided late or even in extra frames, I like the run-line tonight.
The pitchers: The Jays go with Aaron Sanchez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who struck out six and five scoreless innings, giving up just three and three walks in a victory over Detroit on Saturday. After struggling the last two years with injury, Sanchez worked through a good Spring and it would appear as if he’s ready to handle a full work load this season.
The Indians counter with Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.29) who gave up one run and one walk over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Saturday, striking out nine and unfortunate to earn a no-decision for his effort (a victim of poor run support.)
The pick: The Jays come in off the 5-3 home win over Baltimore. Look for them to carry that momentum over.
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
|04-03-19||Rockets +1.5 v. Clippers||Top||135-103||Win||100||28 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||68-67||Loss||-110||23 h 48 m||Show|
The set-up: With a chance to erase a shaky start to the 2019 NCAA Tournament with a big win, I look for Duke to finally put it all together and ride its super stars to a solid victory over MSU in Elite Eight. Neither team has an advantage at coach obviously (and no need to talk about their past or any of their records, even the most casual CBB fan is fully aware of Mike Krzyzewksi and Tom Izzo’s accomplishments). It’s been a couple of “close calls” for the Blue Devils, but the combination of RJ Barrett, Tre Jones and Zion Williamson combined for 63 points in their last win and I think they’ll prove a matchup problem for the Spartans. Slowing down LSU is one thing, but I think MSU is going to have a much more difficult time from this highly motivated Duke side that’s now playing with a chip on its shoulder.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Duke is 3-1 ATS this season after falling to cover the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Duke.
|03-31-19||Mavs +12 v. Thunder||Top||106-103||Win||100||21 h 11 m||Show|
The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points.
|03-31-19||Auburn +4.5 v. Kentucky||Top||77-71||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.)
The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||75-69||Win||100||23 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|03-29-19||Wizards +12.5 v. Jazz||Top||124-128||Win||100||31 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year.
The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.
|03-29-19||Auburn +5 v. North Carolina||97-80||Win||100||98 h 21 m||Show|
Selection: The set-up: Auburn comes in “under the radar” in my opinion, beating Mexico State in the first round, followed by an 89-75 destruction of Kansas in the second round. UNC enters off a win over Iona and a big 81-59 victory over Washington on Sunday. Auburn won the SEC tournament and they come into this one having won nine straight. Overall the Tigers average 79.8 PPG, while allowing 68.5. The Tar Heels have won ten of 11 and average 86 points, while conceding 72.5.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court underdog or pick, while UNC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine post-season tournament games. I think Auburn’s depth and momentum keeps it in this game late. Grab the points.
|03-29-19||LSU +6 v. Michigan State||63-80||Loss||-105||24 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I’m going to recommend what I feel to be a healthy amount of points in the end. MSU has cruised to this point with relatively simple wins over Bradley and Minnesota, while LSU struggled to get by Yale and Maryland. Overall the Tigers average 80.9 PPG, while allowing 72.9. The Spartans average only 75.8 PPG, while conceding just a 37.7 percent field goal shooting percentage.
The pick: The Tigers have weathered the storm and won’t be going down without a fight. While MSU sports the clearly superior defense, LSU’s offense will push the Big Ten favorite to the brink in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is already 8-2 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less, while MSU is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.
|03-28-19||Texas Tech +2 v. Michigan||63-44||Win||100||52 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TT is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points, while Michigan is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points. I’m expecting an all out war and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two very evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|03-28-19||Purdue v. Tennessee||99-94||Loss||-110||98 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: Purdue advanced with an 87-61 win over Villanova on Saturday, while Tennessee advanced with an 83-77 OT victory over Iowa. The last time these teams played together was in 2017 at the Battle 4 Atlantis and the Vols posted the 78-75 OT win. Purdue puts up an average of 76.1 PPG, while allowing 66.1. The Vols are averaging 81.7 PPG, while allowing only 68.9.
The pick: Purdue though is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Tennessee is 10-5 ATS this year after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the Vols depth and pace proves to the be the difference. Play on Tennessee.
|03-28-19||Florida State +7 v. Gonzaga||Top||58-72||Loss||-110||103 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
|03-27-19||Lipscomb v. NC State -2.5||Top||94-93||Loss||-113||27 h 25 m||Show|
Selection: The set-up: NC State hosts Lipscomb in the NIT quarterfinals. The Wolfpack got back Harvard to advance, led by CJ Bryce with 16 points and seven boards. The Bison advanced with an 86-69 rout of North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans, led by 24 points from Rob Marberry.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Lipscomb is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a SU win, while the NC State Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU win and 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home. I’m banking on NC State’s defense and the home town crowd to prove to be too much for the Bison tonight.
NC State Wolfpack
|03-26-19||Presbyterian v. Marshall -4.5||Top||66-83||Win||100||23 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: Two teams with the best names of all time clash in the CIT quarterfinals tonight. The Presbyterian Blue Hose advanced by defeating Robert Morris 77-70. Overall the Blue Hose average 78.6 PPG. The Herd punched their ticket to the quarterfinals are a 78-73 win over IUPUI. Marshall so far has averaged 80.1 PPG.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Hose are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Thundering Herd are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. Marshall also has a huge advantage here by earning the second round bye, as clearly its much more rested. Lay the points.
Marshall Thundering Herd 10* play
|03-25-19||Suns +15 v. Jazz||Top||92-125||Loss||-105||28 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: The Suns have lost three straight, but I think they put up a fight here down the stretch and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Phoenix got 32 points from Devin Booker in the Suns’ most recent setback to the Kings. Utah destroyed the Bulls on the road in their last game (after losing on the road in Atlanta), but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight in its first game back from the extended East coast road trip.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Utah is just 1-2 ATS this season after a huge blowout victory of 30 or more points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
|03-25-19||76ers -2.5 v. Magic||98-119||Loss||-100||13 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly the 76ers won’t be taking anything for granted here. The Magic have won four straight as they try to keep pace in the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. Orlando has lost two of three in the season series as well. But this is a matchup which favors the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in focused as well after getting upset in Atlanta on Sunday. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112, while the Magic average 106.1 PPG, while allowing 106.3.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following at ATS loss and just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Philadelphia is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 following a SU loss. Lay the points.
|03-24-19||Cal-Irvine +5.5 v. Oregon||Top||54-73||Loss||-110||38 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: UC Irvine clearly can’t be taken lightly after knocking off K-State in the opening round 70-64. The Anteaters have averaged 107.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Note that UC Irvine has held its opposition to just 40.7 percent shooting from inside the arc, which ranks first in the country. The Ducks smashed Wisconsin 72-54, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this aggressive Anteaters defense. Overall the Ducks average 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 92.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UC Irvine is 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Bank on the Anteaters going down with a fight, but don’t be shocked by the outright either. Either way though, grab the points.
|03-24-19||Liberty +9 v. Virginia Tech||58-67||Push||0||31 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames vs. the No. 4 seed VT Hokies in the second round. Suffice it to say, I expect the Flames to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Liberty went 14-2 in league play and won the A-Sun regular season and conference tournament. The Flames stunned Mississippi State in the first round. Liberty averages 111.5 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.9 points per 100 possessions. VT beat St. Louis 66-52 for its first NCAA Tournament win since 2007. The Hokies average 118.0 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but VT is just 2-3 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Liberty is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after playing a game as an underdog. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
|03-24-19||Buffalo v. Texas Tech -3||58-78||Win||100||35 h 36 m||Show|
The set-up: Buffalo beat Arizona State 91-74, while Texas Tech demolished UNT 72-57 in the opening round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The Bulls are rolling, having won 13 straight, including the MAC Title game, but I think their high-powered offense (averages 85.1 PPG, while conceding 70.6) finally has a letdown here vs. this step up in competition, especially vs. the Red Raiders suffocating defense which allows just 59.2 PPG (averages 73.1).
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral court games after scoring 90 or more point in its previous game, while Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, expect a blowout.
|03-24-19||Nuggets -1 v. Pacers||Top||88-124||Loss||-105||25 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver comes to town off a 111-93 road win over the Knicks, while the Pacers enter off a 112-89 road loss at Golden State on Thursday. Denver has dominated this series of late, winning the last two, including a 102-100 victory in the first matchup on March 16th. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Overall Denver is 7-3 in its last ten, averaging 110.8 points in that span. The Pacers return home after an 0-4 Western road swing. Indiana is averaging 107.7 PPG, while allowing 104.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after playing on two days of rest. I think this is a bad matchup for Indiana and I look for the visitors to keep the good times rolling for at least one more night. Play on Denver.
|03-24-19||Washington +11.5 v. North Carolina||59-81||Loss||-107||27 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: Washington advanced with a convincing 78-61 win over Utah State in the first round. The Huskies average only 70.1 PPG this year, while UNC averages 86.1. However, the Tar Heels have looked sloppy of late and they actually trailed Iona at the half on Friday. Washington’s defense looked impressive in the first round and I think we’ll see a repeat performance here.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 3-1 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while UNC is just 13-14 ATS in their last 27 when playing on a neutral court. Grab the points, expect a tight battle.
|03-23-19||Auburn -2 v. Kansas||89-75||Win||100||34 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: The Tigers have won nine straight after holding on for a 78-77 win over New Mexico State on Thursday. Kansas has won four of its last five after destroying Northeastern 87-53 in Round 1. Auburn averages 78.9 PPG and it concedes 68.8. Kansas averages 75.7 PPG, while allowing 69.6.
The pick: Not only does Auburn have the advantage on paper, but note that it’s also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU win, while Kansas is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. I think this is a matchup which favors the SEC. Lay the short points.
|03-23-19||Celtics -3.5 v. Hornets||Top||117-124||Loss||-109||26 h 23 m||Show|
The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.
|03-23-19||Maryland v. LSU -2.5||Top||67-69||Loss||-103||25 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range.
The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.
|03-22-19||UCF +1 v. VCU||73-58||Win||100||120 h 11 m||Show|
The set-up: The UCF Knights look to make the most of this opportunity with their first visit to the NCAA Tournament since 2005. UCF averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing just 64.3. Keep your eyes on BJ Taylor, who had 16 points and 3.3 assists per game this season. The Rams have plenty of veteran experience and they’ve advanced to at least the second round in six of their last seven NCAA Tournament appearances, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. VCU averages only 71.4 PPG, while allowing 61.6.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral four games and 4-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while VCU is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 neutral court games. Grab the points.
|03-22-19||Liberty +7.5 v. Mississippi State||80-76||Win||100||118 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: Mississippi State earned an auto bid despite getting ousted in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Liberty was 14-2 in A-Sun Conference play and also earned an auto bid after winning the conference tournament. Mississippi State averages 117.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Liberty Flames average 110.6 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.7 points per 100 possessions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Liberty is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Mississippi State is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.
|03-22-19||Washington +3 v. Utah State||Top||78-61||Win||100||117 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.
|03-22-19||Iowa v. Cincinnati -3.5||79-72||Loss||-110||111 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: Iowa lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, while Cincinnati just won the AAC Tournament. Overall the Hawkeyes average 78.3 PPG, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their last six, including the listless 74-53 setback at Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. The Bearcats destroyed Houston 69-57 in the Tournament title game. Ultimately I think that Cincinnati’s suffocating defense will prove to be the difference.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games and 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games, while Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. I’m laying the points and expecting a beatdown.
|03-21-19||Old Dominion +12.5 v. Purdue||48-61||Loss||-110||88 h 39 m||Show|
The set-up: ODU earned its spot in The Big Dance by defeating WKU 62-56 in the Conference USA Tournament title game on Saturday. The Monarchs won’t be going down without a fight today as they look to take advantage of a Boilermakers team still reeling from a 75-73 Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals loss to Minnesota. ODU won both the regular season title and the Conference tournament title. The Monarchs average 66.2 PPG and they allow only 60.9. Purdue averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 66.8.
The pick: The Monarchs are going to run this shot clock down and make the Boilermakers work their asses off for every point. Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is 9-4 ATS in non-conference games this season, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.
|03-21-19||Baylor v. Syracuse -2||Top||78-69||Loss||-110||97 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams are similar in that they both employ a 2-3 matchup zone defense. Baylor finished 19-13 and is back dancing after a one-year absence. Only two Baylor players have NCAA Tournament experience. Syracuse finished 20-13 and this will be coach Jim Boeheim’s 34th NCAA Tournament appearance. Syracuse sat out starting guard Tyus Battle in both ACC Tournament games as a precautionary measure because of a sore back, but he’s been returned to go at 100% health in this one.
The pick: The Orange have held opponents to 40 percent shooting for the season and 32.3 percent from range. The Orange are also 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite in the -1 to -7 range, while Baylor is just 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament contests. Lay the points.
|03-21-19||St Francis NY +9 v. Hampton||Top||72-81||Push||0||36 h 44 m||Show|
The set-up: The St. Francis Terriers had a 17-15 record overall, but they’d go 9-7 in league play and a share of the Northeast Championship (they average 71 points, led by 15.1 per game from Jalen Jordan.) Hampton was 9-7 in the Big South, but just 15-16 overall. Hampton is 10-3 at home this year and it averages 81.7 PPG.
The pick: The Pirates though aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side of things and I believe that leaves the door wide open for this under rated Terriers team. Take it for what you will as well, but St. Francis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing a game as road dog, while Hampton is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tournament games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
|03-21-19||Bradley +18.5 v. Michigan State||Top||65-76||Win||100||65 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: Outright victory? Almost assuredly not. I’m not calling for one at all anyways. But I do believe the Bradley Braves come in under the radar here and I believe they can keep this one competitive late. MSU came from behind to knock off Michigan in the Big Ten title game and could easily be still caught up on that big come from behind victory. The Braves won’b be going down without a fight, as they return to The Big Dance for the first time since 2006. Bradley limits its opposition to 41.1 percent shooting and 32.8 percent from range. The Braves had a signature win over Penn State, 59-56 in the Cancun Challenge.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bradley is 11-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 5-0 ATS in all neutral court games, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.
|03-21-19||New Mexico State v. Auburn -5.5||77-78||Loss||-105||21 h 25 m||Show|
The set-up: Auburn will be wary to avoid the 5-12 “matchup curse” here vs. a dangerous New Mexico State team. The Aggies finished 30-4 and they’re in the NCAA Tournament for a third straight year. New Mexico State has 11 upperclassmen who all see substantial playing time. Auburn is out to prove that it’s SEC Championship victory was no fluke (84-64 destruction of Tennessee). It’ll be out to push the pace in the first half, and that’s exactly what I’m getting down on this “first half” selection.
The pick: Despite all of their success this year, I’ll point out that the Aggies have made 11 straight opening-round exits in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 1999 and I believe they make the most of it. Get down early and play Auburn in the first half.
|03-20-19||Arizona State -1 v. St. John's||Top||74-65||Win||100||72 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a tight battle. Despite backing its way down the stretch, ASU has now made back-to-back NCAA Tourney appearances for the first time since the early 80’s. If recent history is any precedence, then the Sun Devils have to be loving their chances today as well as they’d meet the Red Storm in LA last year and beat them 82-70. This is St. John’s first winning season for Chris Mullin since he took over four years ago. St. John’s got out to a quick start in non-conference play and despite a shot in The Big Dance, the team has failed to live up to expectations as far as many are concerned.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. John’s is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 neutral sit games, while ASU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Lay the short points, play on Arizona State.
|03-20-19||Rockets -4 v. Grizzlies||125-126||Loss||-110||23 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: Houston destroyed the lowly Hawks 121-105 last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well as it looks to gain ground in the competitive West as the season winds down. Overall the Rockets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 109.9. The Grizzlies had a stretch of decency about a month ago, but they’ve predictably started to stumble again, coming into this one having lost two straight. Memphis averages a league-worst 102.1 PPG, while allowing 104.6.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back after scoring 120 or more points in a victory in the first, while Memphis is only 6-7 ATS this year when playing with triple revenge vs. an opponent (three straight losses in the series.) This is a bad matchup for Memphis. Houston will look to put the foot on the gas early here and try to go up big at half. This is a play on Houston in the first half.
|03-19-19||Belmont -3.5 v. Temple||Top||81-70||Win||100||48 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: Temple lost 80-74 in the quarterfinals of the ACC to Wichita State on Friday, while Belmont lost 77-65 to Murray State in the title game of the OVC Tournament back on March 9th. These teams have never played against each other. The Owls average 74.8 PPG and they allow 71.2. The Bruins average a whopping 87.4 PPG, while allowing just 73.9.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while the Owls are only 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I think Belmont’s high-octane offense turns out to be the difference in this one. Lay the points.
|03-18-19||Warriors -2.5 v. Spurs||Top||105-111||Loss||-105||22 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.
|03-17-19||76ers +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||130-125||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3.
The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
|03-17-19||Auburn v. Tennessee -4.5||84-64||Loss||-109||6 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Auburn enters the SEC Tournament final on a seven-game win streak. Most recently the Tigers beat Florida 65-62 yesterday, going 13 of 28 from range. Note though that Tennessee plays with revenge here after it fell 84-80 at Auburn on March 9th in the regular season finale. The Vols come in off an impressive 82-78 win over favored Kentucky and I think they carry that momentum over here. And with a win today, the Vols will punch their ticket to a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Tournament.
The pick: Auburn plays its fourth game in four days and I believe it comes out flat and tired here. Look for the up-tempo Vols to push the pace, to avenge the regular season finale loss, to earn the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tourney and to be crowned the SEC Tournament winner. Lay the points.
|03-16-19||Blazers v. Spurs -2||Top||103-108||Win||100||25 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points.
|03-16-19||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion||56-62||Win||100||15 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: This is the Conference USA Tournament Final from the Ford Center in Texas. ODU got past Louisiana Tech and UAB, while WKU got the better of UNT and Southern Miss. Both teams have plenty of momentum, but ODU is a difficult matchup for WKU, especially Players Of The Year in BJ Stith, who had ten points and ten boards in his teams 57-56 win over Louisiana Tech.
The pick: These teams have played twice this year, and ODU is 2-0, winning by a combined seven points. However note that WKU is 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while ODU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU victories. Third time isn’t a charm for WKU. Play on Old Dominion.
|03-16-19||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||63-73||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.
10* play on Florida State
|03-16-19||Capitals +1.5 v. Lightning||Top||3-6||Loss||-154||13 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game. The Lightning are out to prove their the best team in the league this year and they can prove that with a resounding victory over the defending champs. But clearly Washington won’t be going down without a fight. The Capitals have been great since the All Star break. Washington averages 3.39 goals and it allows 3.07. The Lightning average 3.82 goals and they allow 2.62.
The pick: Washington is 15-9 (+3.4 units) this year after a win by two goals or more and in a game which I expect to be decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Capitals on the puck line.
|03-16-19||Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5||55-67||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
The set-up: Wisconsin finished 22-9 and MSU was 25-6. Michigan State was never in any real danger in its 77-70 win over Ohio State yesterday, however it did not cover the 12.5 points spread. Wisconsin though comes in dog tired here after its 66-62 win over Nebraska on Friday. The Spartans handled the Badgers 67-59 on the road in mid February and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Overall Wisconsin is averaging 69.6 PPG, while allowing 61.2. MSU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 66.
The pick: This is a bad matchup for Happ and the Badgers. Take it for what you will as well, but Wisconsin is still just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 revenging a loss where the team score less than 60 points in, while MSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less. Lay the points.
|03-15-19||Bulls +8.5 v. Clippers||Top||121-128||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.
|03-15-19||Florida State +9 v. Virginia||Top||69-59||Win||100||13 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.
|03-15-19||Florida v. LSU -2||Top||76-73||Loss||-110||17 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.
10* play on LSU
|03-14-19||Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5||Top||62-57||Loss||-109||29 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State +1.5||Top||63-65||Win||100||20 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.
|03-13-19||Georgia v. Missouri -3||Top||61-71||Win||100||23 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.
|03-13-19||Clemson v. NC State +1||58-59||Win||100||16 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game, as many believe the winner will then punch its ticket to the Big Dance. Both teams went 9-9 in conference play. The victor of this one will also go on to face Virginia in Thursday’s ACC semi-final. Clemson comes in having won two straight and four of its last five, but NC State has to be feeling confident here after taking the first game vs. the Tigers 69-67 at home back on January 26th. NC State destroyed Boston College 73-47 last weekend, posting its best defensive performance of the entire season. I think the Tigers are in trouble here.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court games this year and only 5-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while the Wolfpack are 2-0 ATS in all neutral court games this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. Play on NC State.
|03-12-19||Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers||Top||125-104||Win||100||16 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points.
|03-11-19||San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5||Top||62-69||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.
|03-10-19||Suns +17 v. Warriors||115-111||Win||100||23 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: The Suns had been competitive over the last month, but they couldn’t continue that momentum in a 127-117 loss in Portland just last night. The Warriors have had some issues since the All Star game (like getting blown out at home to the Celtics recently), but it still comes in having won three of its last four. That included a blowout victory at home over the Nuggets most recently. But with mighty defending champs expected to rest starters tonight, I think the door is wide open for the young visiting side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this season after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games, while Golden State is just 12-19 ATS as a home favorite this year. Too many points. Grab them.
|03-10-19||Rockets v. Mavs +8||94-93||Win||100||21 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: I think the Rockets, who come in having won seven straight, get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. The Mavericks though come in hungry as they look to break a four-game slide. Houston has been playing at an elite level for a while now and knocked off some big teams in the process (Warriors at Oracle to start the seven game streak and 76ers at home most recently.) All good things must come to an end though and while I’m not calling for the outright, I think the visitors do come in a bit complacent here. Dallas has been competitive and I expect it to go down fighting.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is a poor 6-13 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Dallas is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points.
|03-10-19||Liberty +7 v. Lipscomb||Top||74-68||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards.
The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.
|03-10-19||Bulls v. Pistons -8||108-131||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: The Pistons posted a come from behind 112-104 road win in Chicago on Friday and I expect them to lay the hammer down here as well in the second game of the home-and-home set. Detroit simply dominates this series, having taken all three meetings so far. The Bulls’ little surge from a month ago is now in the rear view mirror after losing three of their last four. The Bulls average 104.9 PPG and they concede 112.4. Detroit averages 107.8 PPG and it allows 107.8 as well.
The pick: Note though that the Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six at home and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. teams with a losing SU record, while Chicago is a poor 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Detroit has the foot on the gas. It was in 11th sot in the East a month ago, but it’s now in sixth. Clearly the Pistons are “firing on all cylinders” right now. Lay the points.
|03-10-19||Houston v. Cincinnati -2||85-69||Loss||-108||5 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: Houston comes in off a 90-79 home win over SMU, while Cincinnati looks to close the regular season on a winning note after dropping a a tight 58-55 game at UCF in its latest action. Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after falling 65-58 at Houston in the first meeting. The Bearcats are also in a “must win” situation here to earn a tie for top spot in the AAC with Houston. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for Cincinnati in my opinion.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Houston is just 2-4 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points in its previous outing, while the Bearcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Lay the short points.
|03-09-19||Hornets +12.5 v. Bucks||Top||114-131||Loss||-109||15 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points.
|03-09-19||St. John's v. Xavier -2.5||68-81||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams are tied for third at 8-9 with five other schools. This is a big game, as the winner could potentially earn the No. 3 seed in the upcoming tournament. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Red Storm have zero momentum after losing three of their last four, most recently getting smoked 92-83 at DePaul Sunday. St. John’s is 3-5 on the road in conference play, allowing 79 PPG. St. John’s has lost seven straight in this series and it’s just 1-4 at Xavier since the Big East reconfigured in 2013. Xavier is on the bubble as well and it’ll be out to bounce back on Seniors Night after a 71-66 loss at Butler on Tuesday.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home game svs. a team with an above .500 road record, while St. John’s is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick. Lay the short points.
|03-09-19||Baylor +7.5 v. Kansas||70-78||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: Baylor is still basically “on the bubble,” so a signature road victory in its season finale would seal the deal. The Bears currently site one game behind Kansas in the conference standings, so to say this is a big game would be an understatement. Baylor comes in focused after back-to-back losses. The Bears average 113.9 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.1 points per 100 possessions. However note that Byalor has given up just 97.9 points per 100 possessions during league play. Kansas broke a two-game slide with an 81-68 win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks average 113.7 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.8 in league play.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Kansas is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning SU record, while Baylor is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Grab the points.
|03-09-19||Tennessee -2 v. Auburn||80-84||Loss||-130||6 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: The Vols come in off a 71-54 home win over Mississippi State to move to 15 in league play, while the Tigers are 10-7 after beating Alabama on the road. The Vols are in a fight with LSU for the top spot, but regardless they’re still projected to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA. The Vols look to keep the foot on the gas after three straight wins. Overall Tennessee averages 82.4 PPG and it allows 67.1. Auburn has won three straight as well. The Tigers average 79.9 PPG and they allow 68.1.
The pick: Take it for what you will though but Tennessee is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a road favorite or pick, while Auburn is 0-3 ATS as a home dog or pick and 0-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. Tennessee is the correct call here, lay the short points.
|03-08-19||St. Joe's +12.5 v. VCU||Top||63-75||Win||100||25 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair.
The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points.
|03-07-19||Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas State +3||72-73||Win||100||22 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: Louisiana Monroe comes in off a deflating 97-91 home loss to Coastal Carolina on Saturday. Arkansas State is looking to rebound as well after an 81-70 road loss to Georgia Southern over the weekend. But the Red Wolves have to be feeling confident here, because they already took the first meeting between the teams 85-75 on the road on January 6th. Louisiana Monroe has alternated wins and losses over its last six. Overall the Warhawks average 78.5 PPG and they allow 75.2. Arkansas State still has a chance to move up out of ninth place and there’s no better opportunity than this one. The Red Wolves average 73.5 PPG and they allow 77.2.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Louisiana Monroe is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, while Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a war until the end between these two hungry teams.
|03-07-19||Cincinnati v. UCF -2||Top||55-58||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge.
|03-06-19||76ers -5 v. Bulls||Top||107-108||Loss||-105||14 h 13 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|03-06-19||St Bonaventure +6 v. Davidson||Top||46-64||Loss||-108||13 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war.
|03-05-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State -4.5||64-73||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hokies come in off a confidence building 77-72 home win over Duke to improve to 11-6 in league action, while the Seminoles moved to 11-5 within the ACC after their 78-73 home win over NC State. VT enters on top form, but I think it’ll have a difficult time in this difficult road venue. Overall the Hokies average 74.5 PPG and they allow 61.5. FSU has won ten of its last 11 league games. The Seminoles are 14-1 SU at home this year. In those contests they’ve averaged 79.5 PPG and allowed 67.9.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-2 ATS in the last ten home games in this series, while VT is still only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. I look for these strong trends to continue. Lay the points.
|03-05-19||Xavier v. Butler -3.5||66-71||Win||100||12 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: Xavier comes in off an 84-73 road win over St. John’s, but I think it’ll struggle to duplicate that same energy for a second straight contest away from friendly confines. Butler won’t be lacking for motivation here either. The Bulldogs come in off a humbling 75-54 loss to Villanova and will be eager to atone for that mess. They also play with revenge here after falling 70-69 on the road in the first matchup this season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is still only 4-6 ATS on the road this year. Butler on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as home favorite in the 2.5 to 6 points range. Everything points to a blowout. Lay the points.
|03-04-19||Clippers v. Lakers -4||Top||113-105||Loss||-108||16 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9.
The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points.
|03-04-19||Northern Arizona +15 v. Montana||64-66||Win||100||15 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: Northern Arizona comes in hungry after back-to-back losses and defeats in six of its last eight. Most recently UNA lost 84-73 to Montana State. Northern Arizona is led by Jonahtan Andre weigh 13.4 points and 8.4 boards per game. overall the Lumberjacks average 73.2 PPG. Montana enters off a 70-54 win over Southern Utah. Montana averages 77.3 PPG.
The pick: Montana though is a terrible 3-8 ATS in conference home games. The Lumberjacks play with revenge here as well after the Grizzlies took the first meeting on the road. I’m not calling for the outright, but all signs point to a closer battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.