|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-25-20||Pistons v. Nuggets -12||Top||98-115||Win||100||29 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: Detroit's patchwork line-up is coming off another disheartening loss on the road in Portland last time out and I think this team will now struggle in the thin air of this difficult road venue. Denver is staying focussed as well right now, as evidenced by its double digit win over the Wolves (another team that won't be in the playoffs) in its latest action.
The pick: Denver is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest. The situation AND the numbers/trends all point to a home side blowout in this one. Lay the points.
10* PLAY-BOOK the Denver Nuggets.
|02-24-20||Knicks +14 v. Rockets||Top||112-123||Win||100||27 h 29 m||Show|
The set-up: The Rockets are the better team. They have better players and their offense is better. Houston's defense isn't that much better than the Knicks on most nights though. Off three straight wins and with conference rival Memphis coming to town, followed by a tough game at Boston, this one definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the Rockets as well. New York has had two nights off and I believe this young team takes advantage of his complacent home side.
The pick: Outright upset? I'm stopping short in call for a straight up win for the Knicks, but note that they're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a home loss. Also note that Houston is just 5-11 ATS already this season after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. Grab the points.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Knicks.
|02-23-20||Pacers +5 v. Raptors||Top||81-127||Loss||-105||24 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: Indiana lost four straight before a win over the Bucks in their final outing before the All Star break. It then came out and posted a win and cover in New York to open the second half. The Pacers will have their work cut out for them here as well if they hope to win SU on the road and while they may not occur, I do think that the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Toronto hasn't had many lapses this year, but with the Bucks coming to town on Tuesday night, the possibility of a "look ahead" is definitely in the cards for the home side as well.
The pick: Indiana plays with revenge today and note that it's 6-2 ATS in its last eight when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent. Toronto on the other hand is already an extremely poor 3-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. I'm banking on a battle until the final shot. Grab the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.
|02-22-20||Kings v. Clippers -10.5||Top||112-103||Loss||-110||7 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: I like the Clippers to cover the big number at home today. The Kings opened up the second half of the season with a big 129-125 home win over Memphis, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in store here. The Clippers return home off a 141-133 road loss in Boston and I think a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. I look for the veterans on the Clippers to go at the young Kings backcourt of Buddy Hield and D'Aron Fox.
The pick: The Clippers recently added Macus Morris and Reggie Jackson to the line-up. LA has dominated this series at home as well, going 5-1 the last six at home vs. Sacarmento. The Kings on the other hand are a poor 7-8 ATS already this season after allowing 120 points or more in their previous outing. Look for Sac to take a step back and for the Clippers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish.
10* COACH'S CORNER on the LA Clippers.
|02-21-20||Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks||Top||106-98||Win||100||28 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: The Pacers fell victim to a red hot Knicks team a week before the All Star break. Indiana earned a victory in its final game of the first half over Milwaukee (sans Giannis) and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here after a poor scuffling stretch leading up. The Knicks' run came to an end shortly after the Pacers victory with back-to-back losses going into the All Star game to the lowly Hawks and Wizards.
The pick: Both teams have struggled with consistency this season, but Indiana clearly has much better depth. Also note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. New York on the other hand is just 5-15 in its last 20 at home. I look for Indiana's experienced backcourt of Brogdon and Oladipo to be the difference here. Lay the points.
10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.
|02-16-20||All Star LeBron v. All Star Giannis +6||Top||157-155||Win||100||34 h 1 m||Show|
The set-up: For these types of events/wagers, I always try to "find an angle" to use. Team LeBron won this event last year, so Team Giannis already plays with the "revenge" factor. But overall I think Team Giannis holds a lot of value because of the way that Antetokounmpo's draft has widely been viewed. While on paper Team LeBron could look better, I believe the way that Team Giannis has been viewed by the media as being the "lesser" team will only add fuel to the fire to these All Stars.
The pick: And that's the case. This game is being played by the best of the best. And in these types of games, everyone is looking for some sort of motivation to use. And in this case, as mentioned above, Team Giannis has two big motivational factors working in its favor today. While I obviously would not be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm going to grab the points.
10* BLOWOUT SPECTACULAR on Team Giannis.
|02-13-20||Thunder +2 v. Pelicans||Top||123-118||Win||100||26 h 43 m||Show|
The set-up: The Thunder won nine of ten and got complacet and then lost two in a row at home to the Celtics and Thunder. OKC won't be taking the Pelicans for granted here and I believe its depth and experience will prove to be too much for the younger home side. The Pelicans do indeed look ripe for a letdown here in my estimation after three straight victories. OKC has won the first three of this four game season series and I expect them to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Thunder average 110.8 PPG, while the Pelicans allow 117.2. New Orleans averages 115.7 PPG, but OKC allows only 107.9.
The pick: OKC has lost two in a row at home, but it's won seven straight on the road. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window here, as I believe the Thunder are just as motivated to try and complete the season sweep, while also looking to get back on track after back-to-back losses. The Pelicans on the other look primed for a letdown, as I've mentioned above already. Grab the points.
10* COACH'S CORNER on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
|02-08-20||Spurs -2.5 v. Kings||Top||102-122||Loss||-110||27 h 24 m||Show|
The set-up: I base my picks on many things. Primarily though I'm a "situational" handicapper and from a situational stand-point, I think this one works highly in favor of the visiting side. The Kings have won two straight, most recently a very satisfying victory over the Heat at home just last night. The Spurs come in as the "hungrier" team after three straight losses. The Kings are just 10-15 at home this season anyways.
The pick: The Spurs are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten after two or more consecutive losses and 3-1 ATS in their last four as a road favorite, while Sacramento is just 5-9 ATS as a home dog this year and only 3-4 ATS this season vs. teams which average over 106 plus points per contest. Look for the Spurs to take advantage of this tired/content Kings side and lay the points.
10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Antonio Spurs.
|02-05-20||Nuggets v. Jazz -7||Top||98-95||Loss||-110||15 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver destroyed Portland 127-99 last night, but I think it'll come out flat here vs. this desperate Jazz team. Utah has last four straight and I believe it's going to keep the foot on the gas from to finish here as it looks ot take advantage vs. the now weary Nuggets team. The Jazz are still 18-4 at the Vivint Smart Home Arena this year and I expect that record to improve resoundinly after this one.
The pick: The Nuggets are also just 48-60 ATS in their last 108 on the raoad and only 2-4 ATS this season after covering in four or five of their last six vs. the spread, while Utah is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this year after failing to cover four of its last five vs. teh spread, 5-2 ATS in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent and 2-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of six points or more. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction for the home side. Lay the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz.
|02-03-20||Wolves +1.5 v. Kings||Top||109-113||Loss||-110||30 h 56 m||Show|
The set-up: Enough is enough. After 11 straight losses, I look for the Wolves to risk life and limb to pull out this victory today. The Kings come in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers. The Wolves still have one of the best players in the league in Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins is putting up career best numbers. I look for these two to put their team on their backs tonight. The Kings have played only slightly better than the Wolves this year, but I think their young core struggles to keep up with this determined veteran Wolves team.
The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 on the road, while the Kings are just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite this year and only 8-15 ATS at home overall. Grab the points.
10* play on the Wolves.
|02-03-20||Knicks v. Cavs +1||139-134||Loss||-110||27 h 56 m||Show|
The set-up: The Knicks have won two of their last four, but I predict they'll have a predictable letdown here vs. this hungry Cavaliers team. Most recently New York beat the Pacers on the road. The Cavs have lost ten of their last 11, including three in a row. Kevin Love and company will be out for blood tonight. Also note that the Cavs play with revenge here, as NY is 2-1 in the season series thus far.
The pick: Note as well the NY is just 11-13 ATS this year after covering in its prevoius game and only 11-14 ATS vs. clubs with losing records, while Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more. Look for the "hungrier" team to risk life and limb to get untracked.
8* play on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
|02-03-20||Warriors v. Wizards -4.5||125-117||Loss||-110||27 h 56 m||Show|
The set-up: I like Bradley Beal and the home side to throttle the Warriors here. Golden State broke a five-game losing streak with a rare road win in Cleveland, but I believe it'll struggle to keep pace with the high-tempo and hungry Wizards in the Nation's capital tonight. The Wiz have won four of seven and Beal is playing his best ball of the season and he's playing with a chip on his shoulder because of the All Star snub. Expect that trend to continue here vs. this hapless Warriors defense.
The pick: Note as well that Golden State is still just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 on the raod, while Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven at home. Look for Washington to go up early and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points.
8* play on the Washington Wizards.
|02-02-20||Nuggets v. Pistons +2||123-128||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
The set-up: Detroit's slide has been brutal and while it's playing through injuries, I still believe it'll have more than enough in the tank here to push the visiting side to brink. Detroit comes in off another loss at home to Toronto as a 4.5 point underdog, while Denver knocked off the East leading Bucks in its last contest. And with a game at home on Tuesday vs. red hot Portland, who would fault the visitors for coming in complacent and looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today?!
The pick: Additionally note that Denver is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games after scoring 125 points in a win in its last game, while Detroit is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. I wouldn't in fact be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I'm grabbing the points.
10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST is on Detroit Pistons.
|02-01-20||Wolves +10 v. Clippers||Top||106-118||Loss||-110||6 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: The Wolves are out of playoff contention, but I think they'll put up a fight here after falling in OT at home to the Kings. Note that LA is also coming off a 20 points loss to the Kings. Karl Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins both continue to play hard for Minnesota and I believe they'll keep their team in this one late. Kawhi Leonard didn't play last time out and there's a chance he won't play here either. The Clippers are not at 100% health and I think they're going to struggle with consistency again here.
The pick: Also note that the Wolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following an OT home loss, while the Clippers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games following a 20 points or more SU loss. Grab the points, expecting a tight battle.
10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
|01-27-20||Mavs -1.5 v. Thunder||Top||107-97||Win||100||14 h 41 m||Show|
The set-up: I think Luka Doncic will single-handidly will his team to victory here as he tries to make some sense of Kobe Bryant's death. The entire NBA World is in shock still and Doncic had a special early and recent relationship with Black Mamba. The Mavs are coming off a loss in Utah as well. OKC has won five straight and I think it's poised for a letdown here finally though. Also note that the Mavs play with the revenge factor after falling 106-101 here earlier in the season. Overall Dallas averages 116.6 PPG and it allows 108.1. The Thunder though average 110.8 PPG and they allow 109.8.
The pick: Additionally note that Dallas is still a sharp 7-3 ATS this year as a road underdog and 5-2 ATS in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite this season, while OKC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games. Everything points to a big bounce back for this potent Mavs' offense in my opinion. Lay the points.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks.
|01-26-20||Clippers v. Magic +4.5||Top||112-97||Loss||-110||12 h 29 m||Show|
The set-up: While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Orlando has lost 12 straight in this series, so motivation to break that slide is definitely working in their favor as well. The Clippers come in content after winning five of their last six, while the Magic have lost four of their last five. Most recently LA beat the Heat 122-117. LA averages 112.7 PPG and it allows 106.7. The Magic though are desperate here after a listless 109-98 to the Celtics on Friday. The Magic are averaging 105.8 PPG and they're allowing 106.8.
The pick: Orlando's early offensive numbers are skewed though because of early injusry issues, but there's no excuses today. Note as well that the Clippers are already a poor 7-10 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more, while Orlando is a perfect 2-0 ATS off two or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite. With a game "on the road" at the Lakers on Tuesday, I believe the visitors rest players and get caught looking ahead as well. Grab the points.
10* COACH'S CORNER on the Orlando Magic.
|01-24-20||Celtics v. Magic||Top||109-98||Loss||-110||13 h 57 m||Show|
The set-up: BOston is 11-9 away from TD Garden and it enters on a two-game win streak. Orlando is 13-9 at home this year and it's looking to bounce back off a loss. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 105.7. Orlando averages 104 PPG and it concedes a league best 104 as well. Orlando has gotten healthier over the last month and that's seen the team have a dramatic turnaround in play across the board. The Magic though allow only 100 PPG at home, while the Celtics' offensive average drops to 108 on the road.
The pick: Additionally note that Boston is a poor 2-4 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive home victories, while Orlando is a sharp 3-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston is dealing with injuries right now as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home victory.
10* DESTRUCTION on the Orlando Magic.
|01-23-20||Lakers v. Nets +6||Top||128-113||Loss||-110||13 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly the Nets have a lot of issues to resolve. They've been a much better home team than on the road though and they won't be lacking for motivation tonight facing the Lakers. LA comes to town off a come from behind win in New York just last night and it could very likely be sitting key pieces of its rotation in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Situationally I believe this one sets up great for the hungrier home side.
The pick: But note as well that the Lakers are still just 8-9 ATS in non-conference games this year and only 40-49 ATS in their last 89 vs. clubs with losing records, while Brooklyn is already 6-3 ATS this season as a home underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter."
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Brooklyn Nets.
|01-20-20||Bulls +14.5 v. Bucks||Top||98-111||Win||100||25 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: On paper the Bucks are the much better team here. At 38-6 though, I think the home side comes out a bit complacent here vs. this 16-28 Bulls team. Chicago though does come in with some momentum after taking down the Cavaliers 118-116 last time out. The Bucks average 119.5 PPG and the Bulls average only 105.8. Chicago though had key players injured again to start the season, so this offense is only finally starting to come together. Both however sport similar defensive numbers, with the Bulls allowing only 107.8 PPG, while the Bucks concede 106.9.
The pick: Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Milwaukee is just 11-14 ATS already this season after three or more SU victories. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Bulls.
|01-19-20||Heat v. Spurs +1.5||Top||102-107||Win||100||22 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Miami looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its impressive road win over the Thunder, while I expect the Spurs to risk life and limb here for a victory after getting embarrassed at home by the Hawks in a close loss. Miami is at home tomorrow night as well to the Kings, so I believe this does in fact set up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors as well. The Spurs are now below .500 and they can ill afford to look past anyone. San Antonio has a game tomorrow night in Phoenix vs. an equally as desperate Suns team, making tonight's contest that much more imporant for the home side here.
The pick: Note that Miami is just 4-5 ATS this year as a road favorite and only 4-5 ATS this season off a road win, while San Antonio is a sharp 7-3 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the home side to pull away down the stretch.
10* NON-CONFERENCE BEST OF THE BEST on the San Antonio Spurs.
|01-17-20||Blazers v. Mavs -5.5||Top||112-120||Win||100||14 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: Dallas plays with revenge here after falling 121-119 in Portland earlier in the season. The Blazers have been more "miss" than "hit" this season, but after two straight victories and playing against this revenge minded home side, I believe Portland reverts to its usual sub-par self. The Mavs have looked better now that Luka Doncic is fully recovered from his ankle injury, as the Mavs enter this one off three straight victories. Doncic had 25 points, 15 boards and 17 assists in the most recent 127-123 win over the Kings.
The pick: Note as well that Dallas is 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing SU record, while Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in a SU win in its previous outing. After a big win at Houston, I look for the Blazers to stumble in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks.
|01-15-20||Pacers v. Wolves +2.5||Top||104-99||Loss||-110||12 h 37 m||Show|
The set-up: The Pacers are the better team on paper. But this is the opener of a home and home set and I think the home side is going to risk life and limb here to try and pull off the minor upset. After two straight wins, complacency kicks in for Indiana and after two straight losses, a sence of urgency for the home side. The Pacers just managed a 101-95 win over the 76ers last time out, but it certainly wasn't pretty. In fact note that Indiana has lost six of its last 11 overall. Note as well that the home team won and covered in each game in this series last year. The Wolves are coming off a 117-104 loss at home to OKC. Both teams are playing without key players for this series (Victor Oladipo and Karl Anthony Townes), but I think this one sets up great for the Wolves situationally.
The pick: Note as well that the Pacers are already a poor 3-5 ATS this year after covering in three of their last four against the spread, while Minnesota is a sharp 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. I'm banking on the home court advantage being sigificant tonight. This one means more to Minnesota.
10* COACH'S CORNER on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
|01-07-20||Kings v. Suns -6||114-103||Loss||-110||28 h 29 m||Show|
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a win over the Warriors at home just last night and I believe they'll struggle to keep up with this focus Suns team, which is desperate for a victory after falling to Memphis last time out. The Suns are in the middle of an important five-game home stretch and I expect them to risk life and limb to take advantage of this favorable situation.
The pick: The Suns are still averaging 114.2 PPG this year, while the Kings are still averaging only 105.9. Phoenix has already taken two of three matchups between the clubs this year and I look for it to continue that trend of success tonight. Lay the points.
8* play on the Suns.
|01-07-20||Thunder v. Nets +2||Top||111-103||Loss||-105||27 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: The Thunder enter off a loss in Philadelphia. The Nets come in off a loss to Orlando just last night as well. In this contest where both team's played just last night, I believe that the home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. OKC's recent run came to a crashing halt last night, while Brooklyn has now lost six in a row. I believe that Spencer Dinwiddie and company lay everything on the line here to get off the schneid and to take advantage of this particular matchup.
The pick: Note as well that the Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Eastern road swings in the second game of the back to back and coming off a loss in the first, while the Nets are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a home underdog of six points or less. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright.
10* play on the NETS.
|01-05-20||Grizzlies v. Suns -6.5||Top||121-114||Loss||-110||28 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: The Suns come in off a 120-112 win over New York. They play with revenge here after falling to Memphis earlier in the year. This is an important stretch for the Suns, as they play the Grizzlies today, followed by very winnable games vs. the Kings, Magic, Hornets, Hawks and Knicks. I think the Suns lay the hammer down here from start to finish as they push hard over this stretch vs. this "lesser" competition. And for the Grizzlies? They come in off a highly satisfying 140-114 blowout road victory over the Clippers just last night!
The pick: Note as well that Memphis is just 36-45 ATS in its last 81 vs. teams with losing records, while Phoenix is already 17-5 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent. This one has home side blowout written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points.
10* REVENGE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Phoenix Suns.
|01-03-20||Blazers -5.5 v. Wizards||Top||122-103||Win||100||25 h 16 m||Show|
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Portland Trail Blazers.
|01-02-20||Raptors v. Heat -5.5||Top||76-84||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
The set-up: The Raptors have played better than most thought they would this year without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. Every night Toronto takes the court it has a target on its back as teams try to knock off the defending champs. Toronto is 3.5 games back of Miami and it comes to town without the services of key figures Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol. Miami beat Toronto 121-110 in OT back on December 3rd in the lone matchup this year and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards here at home. Toronto is off a 117-97 win over the Cavs, while Miami enters off a poor 123-105 loss to the lowly Wizards.
The pick: Note that Toronto is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in South Beach, while Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss. Look for the Heat to play with passion from start to finish after their latest embarrassing effort as they look to kick this injured Raptors team from start to finish.
10* play on the HEAT.
|01-02-20||Hornets +2.5 v. Cavs||109-106||Win||100||27 h 34 m||Show|
8* play on the HORNETS.
|12-30-19||Suns v. Blazers -4||Top||122-116||Loss||-110||31 h 37 m||Show|
The set-up: I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Suns. Phoenix just broke its seven-game losing streak vs. the Kings and they now face a desperate Blazers team, which has lost three in a row and which will emabark on tough Western road swing after this contest. For all intents and purposes, this becomes a "must win" scenario for Phoenix. The Blazers defeated the Suns by only one point earlier in the year, so they definitely won't be looking past their opponent today either.
The pick: Additionally note that Phoenix is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive losses. I'm laying the points and expecting the home side to risk life and limb from start to finish.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Portland Trail Blazers.
|12-27-19||Suns -2.5 v. Warriors||Top||96-105||Loss||-110||33 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: The Warriors have won three straight games after upsetting the Rockets at home on X-Mas Day as double-digit underdogs, but I think they'll predictably return to mediocrity today vs. this hungry visiting side. Phoenix comes to town desperate to break a seven-game slide.
The pick: Here is what Steve Kerr said after the X-Mas day win for the Warriors: "We're probably not going to play a bigger game than this all year," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "A national TV game against the Rockets. This game meant a lot to us." Can anyone say "letdown" spot? NOte as well that the Suns are already 4-1 ATS this year off a cover where it lost the game SU as a dog, while GS is only 2-3 ATS this season as a home dog of six points or less. I like the "hungry/desperate" team to find a way to get the job done tonight.
10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Phoenix Suns.
|12-25-19||Rockets -10.5 v. Warriors||Top||104-116||Loss||-109||28 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: Houston comes into this game riding a four-game win streak and it's just a 1/2 game behind the Nuggets for the division lead. This latest win streak includes a come from behind victory over the Spurs, followed by victories over the Clippers, Suns and Kings. Golden State has inexplicably won two in a row itself, but I believe the injury depleted home side has a hard time keeping pace with Houston's scoring depth of James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the national stage (note that Harden is 5-2 on X-Mas Day games as well.)
The pick: Additionally note that Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while GS is only 11-29-1 ATS in its last 41 following a SU victory. D'Angelo Russell has been decent for GS this season, but I think his lack of scoring help dooms the home side tonight. Lay the points, expect a blowout.
10* BEATDOWN on the Houston Rockets.
|12-23-19||76ers v. Pistons +6||Top||125-109||Loss||-110||9 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: With a big X-Mas day game on the horizon, I think the visitors get caught "looking ahead." Of course, the 11-19 Pistons can't afford to look past anyone at this point. The 76ers avoided a fourth straight defeat with a win over the Wizards at home last time out, but the Pistons suffered their fourth loss in a row in a disappointing performance vs. the Bulls. Additionally note that the Pistons play with revenge here after falling 117-111 in Philadelphia earlier in the year. On paper the 76ers are the better team, but I believe the situation sets up great for the desperate/hungry home side.
The pick: The numbers/trends support as well, as note that the visitors are only 4-7 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records, while Detroit is already a perfect 3-0 ATS off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. This one has "upset" written all over it, but I'll gladly grab the points.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.
|12-21-19||Hawks +7.5 v. Nets||Top||112-122||Loss||-109||26 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hawks come in off another loss, but were competitive by covering the spread at home vs. Utah last time out. The Nets return home off a loss to the Spurs, a game in which they led for most of until the final moments when they stumbled and blew it. Atlanta's weakness is on the defensive end, but it looked a lot better vs. Utah most recently and I think it carries that momentum over here.
The pick: Spencer Dinwiddie is doing everything he can for the Nets this year with Kyrie Irving still sidelined with injury, but note that the Nets have been disastrous in this spot for bettors, going 4-7 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, including 0-2 ATS this year. The Hawks conversely have gone a strong 9-4 ATS already this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. In a game which I see coming down to the final moments, I'm grabbin the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Hawks.
|12-20-19||Kings +4.5 v. Pacers||Top||105-119||Loss||-109||9 h 23 m||Show|
The set-up: I think the Kings come in under the radar here and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Sacramento is just 12-15 on the year, but it's looked a lot better despite a loss to Charlotte last time out. Overall the Kings average 104.7 PPG and concede 107. The Pacers are 19-9 on the year and 12-3 at home. Overall the Pacers average 109.2 PPG and concede 104.2.
The pick: The Kings can't afford to look past anyone, but would anyone fault Indiana "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent todayw tih a game at Milwaukee on Sunday, followed by a game at home vs. Toronto on the 23rd (in fact, key players could be rested for the home side here.) This one has "upset" written all over it in my opinion, but I'm grabbing the points in the end.
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Sacramento Kings.
|12-15-19||Lakers v. Hawks +10.5||Top||101-96||Win||100||26 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: The Lakers come in off a big 113-110 road win over Miami, handing the Heat their first loss of the year. The Lakers have the best record in the NBA, but with a game at Indiana, followed by a tilt at Milwaukee, then at home to Denver before their X-Mas Day matchup at home vs. the Clippers, would anyone fault the visitors in some small way "looking past" their lowly opponent today? Note that this is a "revenge" game as well for ATL after it fell 122-101 in LA on November 19th as a 15 point underdog.
The pick: The Hawks can't look ahead or look past anyone on any given night with their 6-20 record. ATL has lost three straight, but note that it's 8-2 ATS in its last ten after three straight losses by ten points or more (and that includes going 2-0 ATS this year.) LA on the other hand is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including only 1-3 ATS this season.) Grab the points, expect a comfortable cover.
10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Hawks.
|12-13-19||Pacers v. Hawks +6||Top||110-100||Loss||-105||27 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: I had a play on the Pacers in their home win over the Celtics two nights ago. I then played against the Celtics last night in their second straight contest, this time at home to the 76ers. Philly won that game and now I think the Pacers will stumble here in similar fashion vs. this desperate Hawks side. Outright upset? Possible, but in a game which I do definitely envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab up what I feel to be a generous amount of points.
The pick: The Hawks give up a whopping 118.8 PPG, but the Pacers aren't blowing anyone away with their offense (Oladipo still sidelined with injury and while Malcolm Brogdon has been decent, offense is still Indiana's weakness.) Where the Pacers excel is on the defensive side, but Trae Young and company's strength is clearly on the offensive side (27.9 PPG average.) Finally note that Indiana is already a terrible 1-5 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while ATL is already a solid 3-1 ATS this season off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (Hawks were just humbled in Chicago.) A three game home stretch follows this game for the Pacers, including a high-profile contest vs. the Lakers. I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and I look for the desperate/hungry home side to take advantage. Grab the points.
10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Atlanta Hawks.
|12-12-19||76ers +1.5 v. Celtics||Top||115-109||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
The set-up: I had a big play on the Pacers last night and after a back and forth battle with Boston, the home side eventually pulled away and held on for the victory in the final moments. Some could argue that Boston got caught "looking ahead" to this game at home vs. the now division leading 76ers, but I'll argue against that. Just look at the performance of Kemba Walker, who poured in 44 points, with three rebounds and seven assists.
The pick: Philadelphia has been poor on the road and the C's have been fantastic at home this season. But all good and bad things come to an end, and I think the highly motivated 76ers come in and take advantage of this tired Boston team that laid everything on the line last night in Indiana. Note that Philly is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Boston is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back following a loss in which it allowed 100 or more points in. The situation highly favors the 76ers here.
10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia 76ers.
|12-11-19||Celtics v. Pacers -1||Top||117-122||Win||100||29 h 36 m||Show|
The set-up: The Celtics have a game tomorrow night at home vs. the 76ers, who took a .5 game lead with last night's win at home over the Nuggets. Indiana though will be the more motivated side in my opinion after losing two of three. Previous to that though the Pacers had won eight of 11. Indiana also lost three of four to Boston in the regular season last year, while also getting swept by the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. Revenge is certainly a motivating factor working in favor of the home side as well. Boston averages 110.6 PPG and it allows 104.7, while Indiana averages 108.8 and it concedes 102.8.
The pick: Note that Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off three or more straigth home wins, while Indiana is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite. I think the C's do get caught looking ahead to their game tomorrow night and I like the motivated and revenge minded home side to take advantage. Lay the point/s.
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Indiana Pacers.
|12-09-19||Pistons v. Pelicans -1||Top||105-103||Loss||-105||28 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: The 9-14 Detroit Pistons are in the Big Easy to take on the 6-17 Pelicans. Detroit's won three in a row, including a victory over the Pacers last time out. New Orleans on the other hand is struggling with consistency, but it clearly won't be lacking for motivation here after eight straight losses. After narrowly getting by the Pacers, I think this does indeed finally set up as a letdown spot for Detroit. Last night I had a play on the Kings and they wound up winning outright on the road vs. the Mavericks. I think this is a similar type situation here, as the Mavericks entered last night's contest as one of the hottest teams in the league and the Kings were desperate for a victory.
The pick: Additionally note that Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four whne playing on two days rest and a poor 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory, while New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in its last ten at home in this series. I think the Pelicans finally get over the hump here vs. a complacent Pistons team that struggles on the road anyways. Lay the point/s.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans.
|12-08-19||Kings +7.5 v. Mavs||Top||110-106||Win||100||25 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: Dallas is looking fantastic behind the play of 20 year old phenom Luca Doncic. Doncic has plenty of talent around him as well, but after yesterday's big win over the Pelicans, I think the home side finally gets caught complacent here. The Kings on the other hand are 8-13 and they're hungry for a victory here after three straight losses. The Kings came close though in their last one, falling 105-104 in OT to the Spurs.
The pick: Clearly in every respect, the Mavericks are better on than the Kings on paper. But Sacramento remains competitive and it's playing its best ball of the young season right now. Additionally note that the Kings are already 8-4 ATS on the road this year and 6-2 ATS off a road loss. The Mavs on the other hand are just 5-6 ATS at home this season. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the Sacramento Kings.
|12-04-19||Lakers v. Jazz -2||Top||121-96||Loss||-115||29 h 56 m||Show|
The set-up: The Lakers come in off a hard-fought 105-96 win at Denver last night and I believe they'll be hard pressed to keep pace with the hungry and revenge minded Jazz, who return home off a poor road trip which saw them get humbled in LA vs. the Lakers. Utah's always been much better at home and with a night off to prepare for this one, I do indeed believe that from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up fantastically for the home side.
The pick: Note as well though that despite last night's win, the Lakers are still only 4-5 ATS on the road this year. Utah is 0-2 ATS to open December, but note that it's 11-3 ATS in its last 14 after two more straight road losses. The numbers/trends and the overall situation points to a home side blowout here in my opinion.
10* REVENGE ELITE OF ELITE on the Utah Jazz.
|12-03-19||Mavs v. Pelicans +4||Top||118-97||Loss||-110||29 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: I think the division leading Mavs get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. This is a revenge game for the home side after the Mavs took the first meeting of the year by a score of 123-116. But after ending the Lakers ten game win streak in LA with a 114-100 road win last time out, I do indeed feel this sets up as a "trap" for Dallas.
The pick: The Pelicans have been dealing with injury issues since Day 1 this year, which has resulted in the sub-par record. But after five-straight losses, I think their "hunger" is the difference here. Keep your eyes on New Orleans' Brandon Ingram, who leads the team with 25.5 PPG. Additionally note that Dallas is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 off a win by ten points or more as an underdog, while New Orleans is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. While I wouldn't be shocked by the outright, in the end I'm grabbing the points.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Pelicans.
|12-01-19||Wizards +12.5 v. Clippers||Top||125-150||Loss||-105||30 h 11 m||Show|
The set-up: The Wizards are 1-2 on their current four game trip and they come in off a loss to the defensive minded Lakers. The Wizards do allow 121 PPG, but the Clippers more methodical offensive pace works in our favor here considering the large spread the visitors have been afforded in this situation. Despite the defensive ineptitude, Washington remains the highest scoring team in the league as well.
The pick: LA has plenty of talent and it will be contending for the Western Conference title at the end of the year, but the Clippers return home off a 107-97 loss to the Spurs and I think they'll come out flat here vs. their lowly non-conference opponent. Note as well that Washington is 7-3 ATS as a road dog already this year, while LA is just 7-8 ATS as a favorite. Grab the points.
10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Washington Wizards.
|11-29-19||Clippers v. Spurs +6||Top||97-107||Win||100||28 h 13 m||Show|
The set-up: Clearly "on paper" the Clippers are the better team. LA has won seven straight, most recently holding on for a 121-119 victory at Memphis. Winning as a favorite on the road is never easy though and I think the now complacent Clippers finally have a letdown here. The Spurs lost eight in a row before a victory, but they've since dropped two more straight on the bounce.
The pick: I think LA is as good as it appears to be at the moment, but I definitely do not believe that the Spurs are as horrible as their recent losing streak would indicate. As a situational handicapper (primarily), these are the types of games which I'm constantly on the look out for. San Antonio has a very real shot at winning this one outright in my opinion (note tht LA is a poor 2-5 ATS on the road this season and 0-2 ATS off a road victory, while San Antonio is still 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog,) but in the end I'm going to grab all the points.
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Antonio Spurs.
|11-27-19||Knicks +10.5 v. Raptors||Top||98-126||Loss||-105||26 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: The Raptors are dominating with Paskall Siakim and Fred VanFleet running the show. Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry are still sidelined with minor injuries, but Toronto just keeps on finding ways to win. Most recently the Raptors dominated their second half game at home vs. the 76ers and pulled away for the 101-96 victory. The Knicks won't be going down with a fight here though as they suffered another slim loss to the Nets last time out, falling 103-101. New York has lost three in a row and four of five. With upcoming games vs. Philly, Boston, Milwaukee and Denver, the Knicks' road ahead isn't getting any easier.
The pick: Toronto has a game in Orlando on Friday, followed by home contests vs. Utah, Miami and Houston. After its emotional victory over Philly, would anyone fault the home side for looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? The trends support our theory as well, as note that the Knicks are a sharp 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road dog, while Toronto is a poor 7-11 ATS in its last 18 off a home win vs. a division rival. No outright upset, but decided in the final moments. Grab the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.
|11-22-19||Spurs +8 v. 76ers||Top||104-115||Loss||-110||27 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: I think this one sets up great for a competitive matchup. The 76ers have the Heat coming to town tomorrow night, followed by a game vs. the Raptors. If ever this team was going to "look past" an opponent, surely it's the non-conference Spurs who come to town having lost seven in a row. San Antonio will be risking life and limb here to try and reverse its fortunes and while the outright win isn't out of the question in my opinion, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in the end.
The pick: Note that the 76ers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. teams with a losing SU record and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory, while the Spurs are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Grab the points.
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Antonio Spurs.
|11-21-19||Pelicans v. Suns -5||Top||124-121||Loss||-110||28 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: After a big home win over the Pelicans, I think they have a predictable letdown here vs. a Suns team which comes in focussed on the task at hand after a recent scuffling stretch. Note that despite their recent "up tick" in play the Pelicans are still allowing a horrible 118.9 PPG this year. New Orleans is getting promising play from Brandon Ingram of late, but New Orleans' poor defensive play is going to come back to haunt it again here in my opinion.
The pick: Phoenix has lost three of its last five. It's once brilliant start is going to be firmly in the rear view mirror without a victory here today. Note though that the Pelicans are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. clubs with winning SU records, while the Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. clubs with losing road records. Enough is enough. Look for Devin Booker and company to lay the hammer down from start to finish and lay the points.
10* PLAY-BOOK on the Phoenix Suns.
|11-20-19||Spurs v. Wizards +2||Top||132-138||Win||100||27 h 13 m||Show|
The set-up: San Antonio is "desperate" here as it looks to break a six-game slide. However, the Wizards are equally as "hungry" for a victory and they could clearly care less about any of the Spurs' issues. Note. This is NOT the same Spurs of team of year's past. DeMar DeRozan is carrying the load well, but LaMarcus Aldridge isn't getting any younger and I think the the final game of this long and brutal road-trip will see the veteran struggle here.
The pick: Both teams comes in off losses and each sport similar offensive and defensive numbers. But note that the Spurs are a terrible 17-22 ATS in their last 39 as a road favorite and only 1-8 ATS this season vs. teams which average 106 plus points or more per game. The Wizards and Bradely Beal on th eother hand are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as a home dog of six points or less. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab the points as insurance.
10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Washington Wizards.
|11-19-19||Suns v. Kings -1.5||Top||116-120||Win||100||31 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: The Suns are starting to stumble and they come in off a poor 99-85 loss to the Celtics, who were playing the second game of a back-to-back, after they lost in Sacramento the night before. The Kings though are trending in the opposite direction in a big way and I believe the books are slow in recognizing the sudden drop off for Phoenix, and the "up-tick" in overall play from Sacramento. Combined with the fact that the Suns are playing the second game of a back to back here, there's no question in my mind that this one sets up fantastically for the Kings.
The pick: And finally note that Sacramento is 36-20 ATS in its last 56 when trying to revenge a season season loss vs. an opponent, including having already gone 2-0 ATS this year. I'm expecting a blowout from start to finish.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Sacramento Kings.
|11-18-19||Spurs v. Mavs -4.5||Top||110-117||Win||100||25 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs are on a five-game losing skid, but the Mavericks just broke a two-game losing streak with a win over the Raptors. Dallas could care less about the Spurs' issues and I think it'll lay the hammer down and try to kick this division opponent while its down. The Spurs let a 15 point lead slip away in their most recent 121-116 setback to the Blazers. Portland was desperate for a spark as well in that one. Spurs' big man LaMarcus Aldridge was exceptional with 30 points and 13 boards, but I have a hard time seeing the veteran mustering up the same energy here in the final game of this gruelling road trip.
The pick: The Spurs offense has been decent, but their defense has been atrocious, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league statistically. Note as well that San Antonio is just 15-17 ATS in its last 32 as a road dog of six points or less (including 0-2 ATS this year), while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. clubs that allow 106 plus points per contest. No mercy here, look for the Spurs to pack up their tents early and lay the points with confidence.
10* DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR on the Dallas Mavericks.
|11-17-19||Celtics v. Kings +3||Top||99-100||Win||100||23 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Boston is 10-1 and Sacaramento is 4-7. Boston got it's road trip started off with a 105-100 win in Golden State, but with a game tomorrow night against the re-surgent Suns, followed by heavyweights LA Clippers and to finish their trip at Denver, I think Boston finally gets caught "looking ahead" in this classic "trap" game. Also note that Boston could rest players in anticipation of the upcoming grueling schedule.
The pick: The Kings on the other hand will be laying everything on the line here. Sacramento has won five of its last seven and it enters off a tough 99-97 loss on the road to the Lakers. Note as well that Boston is only 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Sacramento is interestingly 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine in this series in front of the home town crowd. Look for the home side to throw everything it has into this game, but make sure to grab as many points as you can as well.
10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Sacramento Kings.
|11-16-19||Raptors v. Mavs -3||Top||102-110||Win||100||26 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: The Mavericks are going to be in a foul mood here as they've lost three of their last four, including a second straight to the Knicks in the last ten days. A date vs. the defending champs, who have been getting unreal play from Paskal Siakim and Fred VanVleet and while they've won three straight in this series, I believe the defending champs finally get caught flat footed here vs. this determined home side. Toronto beat the Lakers, then lost 98-88 to the Clippers, before then beating the Pacers 114-106 in Portland.
The pick: I'll point out though that Toronto is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight when playing on two days rest, while Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU loss. This is Toronto's fifth road game in the last nine days and I look for it come in with "heavy legs" for this one. Lay the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks.
|11-14-19||Mavs v. Knicks +7||Top||103-106||Win||100||27 h 14 m||Show|
The set-up: The Knicks beat the Mavericks 106-102 in Dallas last week and I think they have a legitimate shot at doing it again tonight. Dallas plays the final game of a three-game trip and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent here, despite having just lost to it. Kristaps Porzingis returns to The Big Apple, which once again will be added incentive for the home side. In that victory the Knicks had five players score in double figures and they shot 50 percent from range.
The pick: Both teams come in off losses, with New York losing at Chicago, and Dallas falling at Boston. Note though that the Mavericks are already only 1-4 ATS this season in non-conference games and a poor 10-17 ATS in their last 27 in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. I don't think the "revenge" angle works here at all. New York is the "hungrier" team and I expect it to put up a fight at home. Grab the points.
10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.
|11-13-19||76ers v. Magic||Top||97-112||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Philadelphia fought tooth and nail last night and barely held on for 98-97 win over the Cavaliers at home and now it has to hit the road to face a Magic team desperate for a spark and hungry to take advantage of a team which could be without the services of scorer Ben Simmons in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Regardless of whether or not Simmons plays, I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for Orlando.
The pick: The Magic were a dark horse for many in the East after last year's great campaign, but at 3-7, clearly Orlando has some work to do. While Orlando has clearly been a disappointment, so to has Philadelphia's performance to this point. The East is wide open and I'm not going to over-react at this point to any of the team's play at this moment. I will however point out that Philly is a poor 2-7 ATS in its last nine after winning a close game by three or less points and playing the second game of a back-to-back, while the Magic are 52-40 ATS in their last 92 after a loss (including 3-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright.
10* DEMOLITION on the Orlando Magic.
|11-12-19||Pistons v. Heat -7.5||Top||108-117||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: Detroit has lost two in a row. The Pistons finally got Blake Griffin back, but they still lost 120-114 to the visiting Wolves last night. Clearly the Pistons are going to get better now that Griffin is back in the line-up, but it's not going to be an instantaneous transformation and playing here on the second game of the back to back isn't going to help either. The Heat enter off a road loss to the Lakers, after laying a beatdown on the Suns in Phoenix.
The pick: The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league right now, allowing just 105.4 PPG. The Pistons are allowing 113.3 and I expect that number to go up here in this difficult road venue. Additionally note that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a SU loss, while the Pistons are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. I'm banking on a double-digit rocking-chair victory. Lay the points.
10* COACH'S CORNER on the Miami Heat.
|11-11-19||Grizzlies v. Spurs -10.5||Top||113-109||Loss||-115||27 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs come in off a poor effort at home to the red hot Celtics and they'll be eager to erase that performance by handling the Grizzlies in front of the home town crowd. The Grizzlies are looking terrible though, getting shut down recently in Orlando in a poor offensive display, before then coming back home and allowing 138 points to the Mavericks in a loss. Overall the Grizzlies average 108.7 PPG and they allow 120.1.
The pick: The Spurs come in off the 135-115 loss to Boston, but they average 112.6 PPG and allow 112.7. San Antonio is also 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a double-digit home loss, while Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after an ATS loss. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish, so lay the points.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Antonio Spurs.
|11-09-19||Rockets v. Bulls +6.5||Top||117-94||Loss||-103||28 h 1 m||Show|
The set-up: Houston comes in off a win vs. the Warriors, but I think its inconsistencies on the road comes back to haunt it again here vs. this hungry home side. Chicago has been "hit or miss" early, but it comes in off a big road win in Atlanta and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here. Besides James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Rockets get pretty thin after that.
The pick: Houston's defense is suspect as well after allowing 112 points to an undermanned Warriors squad last time out. Chicago has plenty of young talent and I'm not reading too much into its early poor numbers. Now that the team has had a few games to get acclimated, I think the Bulls' last victory over the Hawks is going to be more indicative of they play moving forward. Additionally note that the Rockets are a poor 11-12 ATS in their last 23 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 16-10 ATS in its last 26 as a home dog in the same points range. In a game which I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.
10* PLAY-BOOK on the Chicago Bulls.
|11-08-19||Knicks +11.5 v. Mavs||Top||106-102||Win||100||29 h 60 m||Show|
The set-up: The Knicks are 1-7 and the Mavericks are 5-2. On paper, of course the Mavericks are the "better" team. However, as primarily a "situational" handicapper I think the desperate Knicks, who have lost four in a row, will give the over confident Mavericks everything they can handle tonight. One bright spot for New York in its last loss in Detroit was that it won the rebound battle 49-40.
The pick: Facing former team-mate Kristaps Porzingis will only add motivation for the visitors as well. Dallas won 107-106 over the Magic on Wednesday, which was the first time all year that Orlando scored over 100 points. Note as well that New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Dallas is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten home games as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) I believe the home side goes up early, takes the foot off the gas and I expect the hungry/desperate visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points.
10* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Knicks.
|11-07-19||Heat +2 v. Suns||Top||124-108||Win||100||29 h 14 m||Show|
The set-up: Miami enters off a loss to a desperate Nuggets team, but I think its depth and experience will help it pull off the minor upset here vs. the surprising Suns. Phoenix has won three straight and it just handed the 76ers their first loss of the year. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?
The pick: The Suns have been getting massive production from Devin Booker, but behind him Phoenix is actually pretty thin (Aron Baynes and Kelly Oubre Jr?!). Despite falling to Denver, note as well that Miami is still 52-33 ATS in it last 85 on the road and already 2-0 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while Phoenix is a poor 14-18 ATS in its last 32 when playing on two days rest. I'm grabbing the points, but obviously expecting an outright upset.
10* COAST-TO-COAST ULTIMATE ATS BLOWOUT is on the Miami Heat.
|11-05-19||Heat v. Nuggets -4.5||Top||89-109||Win||100||27 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver comes in off a win over Orlando and I think it keeps the momentum rolling here vs. the 5-1 Heat. While Miami has performed well at home, this is a big test with games at Phoenix and the Lakers up next. Miami blew the Rockets out of the water in their 129-100 home victory, but I think it takes a step back here in this difficult non-conference venue.
The pick: The Nuggets have gone through some early growing pains to open the year, with losses to Dallas and New Orleans. Denver though battled tough against the Magic and there's no reason not to think it won't carry over that hunger here at home vs. this top East Coast team. Note that Miami is only 11-21 ATS in its last 32 after a win by ten points or more, while Denver is 24-16 ATS in its last 40 after playing two straight on the road. After their "ho hum" start and facing this red hot Heat side, I look for Nikola Jokic and company to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. Lay the points.
10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Denver Nuggets.
|11-04-19||Bucks -6.5 v. Wolves||134-106||Win||100||28 h 11 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bucks are 4-2 and they have double-digit wins over the Magic and Raptors already. Minnesota is 4-1 and while it won its first game without superstar Karl-Anthony Towns in the line-up in their last game after he was suspended for three games for fighting, I have a hard time seeing the home side duplicating that feat vs. this incredibly deep Bucks side.
The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with a winning SU record, while MIlwaukee is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the Western Conference. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive rout.
8* play on the Bucks.
|11-04-19||Rockets v. Grizzlies +6.5||107-100||Loss||-105||28 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: Memphis won't be rolling over here after losing two straight. Yes Houston has the better line-up, but it's playing the final game of a tough trip and it's off a terrible beatdown loss in Miami just last night. Beyond James Harden and Russell Westbrook, Houston gets thin pretty quickly.
The pick: Memphis has lost two road games by an average of 24 points, while going 1-2 at home with an average margin of loss being at six. Houston is terrible defensively. It gave up 158 points to the Wizards in its first road game and then allowed 49% shooting to the Nets the following night. Note that Westbrook is OUT for this one as well. And finally note that the Rockets are 0-4 ATS already this year vs. teams with losing records (and 30-40 ATS the last two seasons), while Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the generous points.
10* play on the Grizzlies.
|11-02-19||76ers v. Blazers -2.5||Top||129-128||Loss||-100||30 h 23 m||Show|
The set-up: Portland returns home after a successful 3-1 season opening road trip. The Blazers only loss came to the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back situation. The Blazers are getting dominant play from Damian Lillard, who is averaging 29.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum is averaging 21. Note that the Blazers are 8-1 SU in their last nine at the Moda Center. The 76ers come to town without their top player in Joel Embiid as well, who is serving a suspension due to a fight he was involved in.
The pick: Josef Nurcic is going to be able to operate vs. Philadelphia in the paint. Philly has plenty of talent and is a deep team as well, but the late West Coast game, combined with the loss of Embiid will prove to be just too much here to overcome in my opinion. Note as well that Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 or more points in its previous outing, while Philly is only 40-45 ATS in its last 85 after scoring 115 points or more. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.
10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trailblazers.
|11-01-19||Pistons v. Bulls -3||106-112||Win||100||28 h 23 m||Show|
The set-up: Detroit has played better than expected without star Blake Griffin in the line-up as it come sin at 2-3. The Pistons though looked poor in their most recent 125-113 road loss in Toronto. The Bulls though were expected to take a step forward this season, but so far their young talent has produced just a 1-4 record, including having lost three straight.
The pick: Detroit is now also dealing with injuries to Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose. Additionaly note that Detroit is a terrible 12-28 ATS in their last 40 after failing to cover in three of its last four ATS, while Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after faling to cover the spread in three or more straight games. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.
8* play on the Chicago Bulls.
|11-01-19||Rockets v. Nets +3.5||Top||116-123||Win||100||28 h 33 m||Show|
The set-up: The desperate Nets are poised to win this game outright in my opinion, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these teams has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. Houston comes in off a one point OT win in the Nation's capital vs. a terrible Wizards tam. Yes Houston has two fantastic players in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but after that they get pretty thin.
The pick: And in a "situation" like this where they just finished a marathon OT contest and now face a desperate Nets team that will be risking life and limb after starting the season 1-3, there's no question that this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side. Additionally note that Houston is a terrible 5-12 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games, while the Nets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games. This one has upset written all over it.
10* play on the Brooklyn Nets.
|10-31-19||Nuggets v. Pelicans +4||Top||107-122||Win||100||14 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: What do you base your picks on? I base my selections on many different things. This particular play is based upon the fact the Pelicans are so far winless this year and they're going to be playing their hearts out to get off the schneid. They're still without Zion Williamson and yes admittedly, the Nuggets are a much better and deeper team. But I believe that the visitors come in flat here after their outright 109-106 loss at home to the Mavericks.
The pick: The Pelicans have faced stiff competition to open the year, but note that they're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Nuggets are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a favorite. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can.
10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on the New Orleans Pelicans.
|10-29-19||Grizzlies +11.5 v. Lakers||Top||91-120||Loss||-115||30 h 4 m||Show|
The set-up: The Grizzlies ended a two-game losing streak with a big OT win at home over the Nets and I look for this young visiting side to carry that momentum over here. The Lakers lost to the Clippers on opening night, but they've since won back-to-back games over Utah and Charlotte. With upcoming road games vs. an improved Dallas team up next, followed by San Antonio and Chicago, would anyone fault LA for looking past its lowly opponent today? Memphis' young core of Jae Crowder, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to keep this one competitive once again in my opinion.
The pick: Yes the Lakers have Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, but they're still without Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Memphis has struggled defensively in the early going, but LA has so far only averaged 105.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Additionally note that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 120 points or more, while LA is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I think LA does indeed get caught looking past the hungry Grizzlies today, so grab the points.
10* COACH'S CORNER on the Memphis Grizzlies.
|10-27-19||Blazers +2 v. Mavs||Top||121-119||Win||100||28 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: Damian Lillard has scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games for the Blazers. Hassan Whiteside and CJ MCCollum round out a powerful and veteran line-up. Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic have been great for the Mavericks, but I think the lack of depth off the bench will ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavs today.
The pick: Additionally note that Portland is 24-12 ATS in its last 36 after scoring 120 points or more in its previous outing, while Dallas is a poor 14-16 ATS in its last 30 as a home favorite of six points or less. I like Whiteside to slow down Porzingis tonight and I look for the deeper bench of Portland to do the rest. Grab the points.
10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trail Blazers.
|10-26-19||Clippers v. Suns +9||Top||122-130||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: Phoenix held a lead in Denver for most of the night last night, but it wasn't to be in its eventual 108-107 OT loss. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but let's get real. We're still in the first week of the season and these are professional athletes. I'll argue that playing again so quickly is actually a benefit for the clearly "gelling" Suns, who blew out the Kings in their opener. The Clippers are off to a 2-0 start and they definitely appear to be the team to beat in the NBA this season.
The pick: The Clippers took out the Lakers and then the Warriors in Golden State, but with games against the Suns tonight and then the Hornets at home on Monday, would anyone fault LA for taking the foot off the gas here tonight? I like the home side to shake off last night's loss and to defend its own floor. That said, grab the generous points.
10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.
|10-25-19||Bulls +1.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||110-102||Win||100||28 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bulls lost 126-125 in Charoltte on opening night, but I think this fast-paced visiting side will have more than enough in the tank to take out the lowly home side here. Lauri Markkanen was a bright spot in a losing cause for Chicago with 35 points and 17 boards and its defense catches a break here facing Memphis, which fell 120-101 in Miami in its opener.
The pick: Ja Morant was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year for Memphis and he finished with 14 points and four assists. But the Grizz are still a poor 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion.
10* play on the Chicago Bulls.
|10-25-19||Wolves v. Hornets +4.5||121-99||Loss||-110||27 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: Minnesota beat the Nets on Opening night in an OT decision, but I think the team has a predictable letdown here. Charlotte enters off a hard-fought upset win at home over the Bulls and with nothing to lose, I think the home side can keep this one competitive until the final moments again. Last year the Wolves averaged 112.5 PPG and allowed 111.1.
The pick: Dwayne Bacon had 22 points for the Hornets in their 126-125 win over the Bulls. last season Charlotte averaged 110.4 PPG and it conceded 114.0. Note though that the Hornets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, while the Wolves are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory. While this one has "upset" written all over it, in the end I'm grabbing the points.
8* play on Charlotte.
|10-23-19||Pistons +5 v. Pacers||Top||119-110||Win||100||34 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: The Pistons were 41-41 last year and they were the eighth seed in the East, while Indiana was 48-34 and ended up as the fourth seed last year. The Pistons enter the year on full health (other than Griffin) and welcome back all of their core players from last year. Detroit also signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris amonth others.
The pick: The Pacers are awaiting for their super star Victor Oladipo to return from injury and I think they'll have a hard time adjusting on opening night. Indiana signed Malcom Brogdon to run the point, but I think he'll have his hands full as well tonight with Rose and company. I think Detroit has everything in place to improve this year and even with Oladipo in the line-up, I believe that the Pacers have the potential to take a big step back. Grab the points.
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.
|06-10-19||Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors||Top||106-105||Win||100||58 h 55 m||Show|
The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can.
Golden State Warriors
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||109-104||Win||100||57 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home.
The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-21-19||Bucks v. Raptors +2.5||Top||102-120||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.
The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.
|05-18-19||Warriors +2.5 v. Blazers||Top||110-99||Win||100||28 h 24 m||Show|
The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-15-19||Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks||Top||100-108||Loss||-105||10 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.
10* COACH’S CLINIC
|05-12-19||Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets||Top||100-96||Win||100||41 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.
Portland Trail Blazers
|05-10-19||Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets||Top||118-113||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Golden State Warriors
|05-08-19||Celtics +9 v. Bucks||Top||91-116||Loss||-108||13 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight.
The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.
10* BOSTON CELTICS
|05-05-19||Raptors +2 v. 76ers||Top||101-96||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
|04-30-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||Top||102-123||Loss||-110||47 h 25 m||Show|
The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.
|04-29-19||Blazers +4 v. Nuggets||Top||113-121||Loss||-102||26 h 8 m||Show|
The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.
Portland Trail Blazers
|04-28-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||112-90||Win||100||26 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams dominated in their opening round series. I think we have to take the Bucks’ four game sweep of the Pistons with a grain of salt though, as Detroit played without star Blake Griffin for most of it. Boston steamrolled the Pacers by averaging 99.3 PPG and allowing only 91.8. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG and it allowed 98.
The pick: Boston comes in peaking at the right time here though. The Celtics have a ton of depth and experience and they have the ability to win this one outright. Note that the C’s are 5-0 ATS their last five on the road, while the Bucks are a terrible 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 when playing on three or more days rest. The outright is possible, but grab the points.
|04-24-19||Clippers +14 v. Warriors||Top||129-121||Win||100||55 h 45 m||Show|
The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.
|04-23-19||Nets +8 v. 76ers||Top||100-122||Loss||-110||48 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.
|04-20-19||Nuggets +3.5 v. Spurs||Top||117-103||Win||100||27 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4.
The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.
|04-18-19||Nuggets +4 v. Spurs||Top||108-118||Loss||-110||26 h 57 m||Show|
The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.
|04-17-19||Jazz +6.5 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-105||26 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||54 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.
The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.
|04-14-19||Pacers v. Celtics -7||Top||74-84||Win||100||55 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.
|04-13-19||Nets +5.5 v. 76ers||111-102||Win||100||18 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: You’d think that Philadelphia would have a clear advantage in this matchup, but in the regular season that wasn’t the case, as these team’s split four meetings. Overall Brooklyn averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 112.3. D’Angelo Russell averages 26.7 points and 8.1 assists per game. The 76ers average 115.2 PPG and they allow 112.5. Joel Embiid averages 28 points and 11.6 boards per game.
The pick: Take it for what you will though but Brooklyn is 25-16 ATS on the road this year, while Philadelphia is just 27-31 ATS as a favorite this year. These two team’s are both very deep and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.
|04-10-19||Heat +3.5 v. Nets||Top||94-113||Loss||-110||25 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.
|04-09-19||Blazers v. Lakers +9||104-101||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Outright victory? Probably not. But the Lakers look more competitive now than at any other time this season and after back-to-back victories, I look for the home side to push the Blazers to brink here as well. The Blazers come in off a tough home win over the Nuggets and a “letdown/trap” looks imminent in my opinion. Note that Denver was playing without its top three players as well in that one, as Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray were all sitting out.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 7-8 ATS this year as well following a division game, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.
|04-09-19||Grizzlies +10.5 v. Pistons||Top||93-100||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.
|04-07-19||Nuggets +4 v. Blazers||Top||108-115||Loss||-110||14 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well.
The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.
|04-07-19||Nets +3.5 v. Pacers||108-96||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 133-128 road win over Milwaukee and I think it carries that momentum over here. Indiana comes in off a 117-97 home loss to Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this surging Nets side. To say this is a “revenge” game as well would be a huge understatement, as the Pacers have won nine straight in the series, including two already this season. Neither team can let the foot off the gas as the playoffs loom, but from a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up fantastic for the visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing SU record, while the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I’m grabbing the points, but I won’t be shocked by an outright upset.
|04-05-19||Celtics +1.5 v. Pacers||Top||117-97||Win||100||24 h 27 m||Show|
The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1.
The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning.
|04-04-19||Cavs +9.5 v. Kings||Top||104-117||Loss||-110||26 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.
|04-03-19||Rockets +1.5 v. Clippers||Top||135-103||Win||100||28 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.