|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-14-19||Dustin Poirier v. Max Holloway -200||Top||1-0||Loss||-200||17 h 50 m||Show|
6* Max Holloway (11:59 ET): This is a five-round fight for the interim lightweight title (155 lbs). It should be an easy win for the favorite, Max Holloway, who is looking to avenge a loss in his first UFC fight ever. But, seven years later, it's pretty clear that he's the superior fighter now compared to Dustin Poirier. Holloway should win easy and a stoppage is quite likely.
Back in Feb 2012 (UFC 143), Poirier was able to defeat Holloway by dominating on the ground. But this is a much different Holloway as his takedown defense has improved exponentially. After losing to Conor McGregor in August of 2013, Holloway was just 3-3 in six UFC fights. But he hasn't lost since and brings a 13-fight win streak into tonight. All but three of those victories have come via stoppage and the last four have all been by TKO. He is the featherweight champion (145 lbs), so he's moving up a weight class here to compete for an interim title, but I feel it will be a seamless transition.
Poirier's best days are behind him. He too spent plenty of time fighting at featherweight, but has been competing at 155 since 2015. The irony of the win over Holloway back in 2012 is that Poirier demonstrated a kind of discipline you rarely see from him these days. With Holloway having much better takedown defense now, expect Poirier to get frustrated here, which will lead to mistakes. Standing, Holloway has a massive edge in this fight and that is where the majority of it will take place. 6* Max Holloway
|08-26-17||Conor McGregor v. Floyd Mayweather Jr||Top||3-5||Win||100||30 h 46 m||Show|
8* Floyd Mayweather (11:00 ET): Note that the bet here is for Mayweather to win inside of 12 rounds. This is one where I had to step in as a result of the ridiculous amt of public betting on the underdog McGregor. Yes, we're all constantly looking for that big "payday," but you might have had a better shot buying a bunch of Powerball tickets rather than firing on Conor McGregor here. This is a boxing match. Floyd Mayweather is arguably one of the greatest fighters in the history of that particular sport, certainly the best of his generation. McGregor has never boxed professionally in his career. He will not be able to employ any MMA tactics here. Rather, he's going to have to stand and attempt to trade punches w/ Mayweather. He doesn't stand a chance. I have Mayweather finishing McGregor inside of the 12 rounds, which is a far better value as opposed to simply taking him to win.
Reports are that McGregor's punching hardly would qualify him as a boxer. Yes, he's an accomplished mixed martial artist, but that's a totally different "game." I said earlier that Mayweather is the best of his generation and possibly all-time. You can't even say that about McGregor in MMA. He's an excellent hype man, the best ever possibly, but that's not going to help him once he gets in the ring. McGregor has lost three times in the Octagon, most recently to Nate Diaz in March of last year. Mayweather has never lost a boxing match in his career. The idea he would lose to a novice, even at 41 years of age, is just ludicrous.
Would you bet on a football team if Michael Jordan was the quarterback? I hope not. What I expect to see here is McGregor start disciplined, get frustrated, and then go swinging for the fences. That's not a winning strategy and will play right into the hands of Mayweather, who will be far more accurate here. Shockingly, McGregor is being priced lower than some of Mayweather's recent boxing opponents. That's ludicrous. Yes, his critics will point out that it's been a while since Floyd knocked out an opponent. But a KO isn't requred for a stoppage here, remember. He can simply pound McGregor into oblivion causing the referee to step in. That seems like a logical conclusion to a fight that I can't see going more than 10 rounds. With no kicking, no takedowns and no submissions, McGregor has no chance. 8* Floyd Mayweather
|05-03-15||Manny Pacquiao v. Floyd Mayweather Jr -175||Top||4-8||Win||100||15 h 8 m||Show|
6* Floyd Mayweather, Jr (11:55 ET): So here we are, the "Fight of the Century." Interest in Mayweather-Pacquiao will likely result in this being one of the biggest nights in Vegas history. I always intended to bet the fight, but the public's overwhelming support of the underdog Pacquiao has me all over Floyd Mayweather in this one. The price has now been driven below 2:1 on the favorite, which is a steal, in my opinion. My recommendation is to wait as long as possible to bet Mayweather to win here as the price will continue to go down before the two step in the ring late Saturday.
This just in: Floyd Mayweather has never lost a fight in his professional career. He comes in at 47-0 w/ 26 KO's. While most don't think of him as a knockout artist, his KO percentage of 55% is roughly equivalent to that of Pacquiao, who is at 59% in his career. Interestingly, Pacquiao has not won a fight via the knockout since 2009. Mayweather last knocked out a fighter (Victor Ortiz) back in 2011. Yes, Pacquiao is expected to be the more "active" fighter here, but Mayweather is the best defensive fighter of his generation. Mayweather's connect percentage of 43% is #1 amongst all active fighters (Pacquiao is at 35%, which ranks 11th). Mayweather is also #1 among all active fighters in terms of percentage of power punches landed at a whopping 50 percent.
While Mayweather comes in unbeaten, Pacquiao has five losses on his career resume, two of those coming since 2012. One of those was a highly controversial decision to Timothy Bradley, which he later avenged, but note he was also knocked out in the 6th round by Juan Manuel Marquez, who Mayweather easily beat three years earlier. There's a prevailing wisdom that this fight is going to go to the scorecards and if it does, then expect Mayweather to be the victor. He's lost on a judge's scorecard just once in his entire career (against De La Hoya and shame on that judge). The one time Mayweather suffered a "knockdown" in his career came all the way back in '01 & that was only b/c his glove touched the canvas. The line for this fight opened closer to 3:1 in favor of Mayweather, so there is value in betting the favorite in this situation. 6* Floyd Mayweather, Jr.