|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-21-16||Indiana Fever v. New York Liberty OVER 157.5||Top||82-70||Loss||-105||9 h 52 m||Show|
10* Over Fever/Liberty (11:00 AM ET): Suffice to say, it will be difficult for Indiana to duplicate their performance from Tuesday where they beat 20-2 Los Angeles outright, 92-82 as five-point dogs. It wasn't their highest scoring output of the year (97 pts vs. PHX on 5.18 was), but they did shoot 55.9% against the top defensive team in the league (it was the most pts allowed in regulation this year by the Sparks). Now that being said, it was the third time in the last four games where the Fever shot 51% or better from the floor. So, offensively, I think Indiana will be just fine here even as they now draw the best team from the East, the Liberty, who are third in points allowed this season. Take the Over.
I say that the Fever will be just fine offensively knowing full well what has transpired in their first two meetings this season w/ the Liberty. The first saw them held to 59 pts in a disastrous performance that saw them shoot just 32.8 percent. The rematch wasn't much better as they lost by three at home, 78-75. From an Over bettors' perspective, it was really bad, as the game stayed Under despite overtime. But the third time will be the charm. Actually, going back to last season, the Under has cashed in four straight Fever-Liberty matchups. Indiana has been a lot better since last facing New York on 6.19 at home. They've won six of nine and from a total bettors perspective, the Over has cashed in six of the last nine games as well. Four times during that span they've topped 90 pts. Six times they've scored at least 85 points.
I started this writeup by mentioning how hard it would be for the Fever to match its performance from the prior game. Well, the same holds true for the Liberty in one regard. Yesterday (Weds afternoon), their bench scored 69 points, a WNBA record for reserves. They beat Washington 88-81. But while reserve scoring will go down, I certainly expect the starters to contribute more, thereby nullifying the decline from the bench. Of course, scoring has been on the rise overall this season in WNBA and both of these sides are averaging 80 points per game. I believe this total to be too low. 10* Over Fever/Liberty
|07-20-16||San Antonio Stars v. Seattle Storm OVER 149||Top||69-83||Win||100||13 h 43 m||Show|
|07-19-16||LA Sparks v. Indiana Fever UNDER 160.5||Top||82-92||Loss||-110||11 h 44 m||Show|
8* Under Sparks/Fever (8:05 ET): Los Angeles, now 20-2 SU this season, is off a humbling defeat at the hands of Atlanta, 91-74 as 7.5-pt road chalk. I'm proud to say I was on the right side of that one, and while the Sparks seem similarly overvalued here, I don't dare fade them as they'll clearly be motivated to bounce back from just their second defeat of the season. As for Indiana, they beat the Dream their last time out, 78-72 in come from behind fashion. It was the fourth time they've covered in the last five games. But putting aside the ATS result here, let's look at the total. The number is starting to come down and given there's no real such thing as "public money" in WNBA betting, I'll follow the steam trigger and take the Under!
The Sparks have now given up 90+ points in B2B games. Note that they hadn't allowed 90 in any of their first 20 games this season! The game at Connecticut did go into overtime and really the team did "tighten the screws" after halftime, allowing just 37 total points. This is after all the top defensive team in the league this year at just 75.1 points per game. It wasn't as if they allowed Atlanta to shoot all that well Sunday afternoon (43.5 FG%). A big key was the Dream going 27 of 31 from the free throw line. I expect Los Angeles to bounce back defensively here, plus the Under is 6-1 this season when the Sparks are playing w/ exactly one day's rest.
Now, I'm well aware what happened the last time these two teams hooked up. Los Angeles won obviously, but it was high-scoring affair, 94-88. Note though that BOTH teams shot better than 53% from the floor in that game. That is highly unlikely to happen again tonight. Indiana shot 51.7% from the floor in their last game, so regression is already in order. For the season, they are shooting just 44 percent. For them, the Under has cashed in two-thirds of the games where they are the underdog (8 of 12). It should be pointed out that before storming back to beat Atlanta on Friday, the Fever scored only nine points in the first quarter. 8* Under Sparks/Fever
|07-13-16||Atlanta Dream v. New York Liberty UNDER 157.5||Top||62-86||Win||100||3 h 1 m||Show|
8* Under Dream/Liberty (11:00 AM ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now, but New York has a rather comfortable 3.5 gm lead on Atlanta. The teams have split a pair of games so far in the 2016 season, but it's important to note that both went into overtime, one of them double overtime. That first meeting (here in NY) was an 85-79 final in favor of the Dream, though it should be noted they held the Liberty to just two points in OT. The rematch in Atlanta saw New York come out on top 90-79 and that game saw a total of 29 pts scored in the two extra periods. Assuming tonight's game doesn't go beyond on regulation, the total looks too high. Take the Under.
Three of the Liberty's last four games have stayed Under the total, including the last as they held San Antonio to just 65 points on 36.8% shooting. The top rebounding team in the league, New York also gives up the third fewest points per game. Even though they are only 6-4 SU at home, they do give up fewer PPG than on the road (where they're 9-2 SU) and as a result the Under is 7-3 here. They held the Dream to 33.3% shooting in the last meeting.
Atlanta is also coming off an Under, a game that they won 67-63 over Connecticut. That was easily their lowest scoring game of the year as not only did they match a season-low for points allowed, but it was also a season-low for points scored! While today's game likely ends up with more total pts scored, we certainly have plenty of "wiggle room." The Under is 6-3 in all Dream road games so far. 8* Under Dream/Liberty
|07-09-16||Dallas Wings v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 167||Top||56-93||Loss||-105||12 h 27 m||Show|
10* Over Wings/Lynx (8:05 ET): This is actually my first Over play this season in WNBA. There has been a dramatic increase in scoring this year, but I waited for a "tipping point" (when O/U lines reached near-record highs to strike back with some Unders. Now that we've seen those Unders start to cash, it's time to reasses. Dallas is 2nd in the league in scoring (85.7 PPG) and 2nd to last in points allowed (87.3 per game). This is a really tough spot for the Wings here as they are coming off an overtime game. Had yday's game not gone to OT, it would have been a fourth consecutive Under. But before that, they'd gone Over nine straight times. Take the Over.
Minnesota has gone Over in four straight games and just suffered a stunner, giving up 93 points in an outright loss (as 11.5-pt favorites) to Connecticut. That too was an overtime game. Maya Moore scored 40 points, all but two of those coming after halftime! But it wasn't enough as the the Lynx lost for a fourth time in six games after that 13-0 start. Offense has not been a problem though as the team is 4th in the league in scoring. They should shred a Dallas defense that has given up a ton of points this year.
Making this spot even tougher for the Wings is the fact they are likely to be w/o Glory Johnson, who injured her foot last night. This is the lowest total for a Wings game in some time, so there's value. The last time these teams met, it may have only been an 80-63 final (in favor of Minnesota), but the Wings shot only 36% from the floor. I expect that percentage to go up tonight. That was their lowest scoring game all year. 10* Over Wings/Lynx
|07-01-16||New York Liberty v. Phoenix Mercury UNDER 166||Top||99-88||Loss||-103||15 h 32 m||Show|
|06-29-16||Connecticut Sun v. Phoenix Mercury UNDER 177.5||Top||75-86||Win||100||14 h 53 m||Show|
10* Under Sun/Mercury (10:05 ET): In yesterday's analysis (for a winning Under pick), I mentioned that scoring has really been on the rise this season in the WNBA. As a result, we're starting to see (justifiably) higher O/U lines for games. But as was the case yday, the one tonight for Connecticut at Phoenix is too high and in fact I'm not sure the last time I saw a WNBA total this high. Now Phoenix has gone Over in four straight, not to mention they played to a 99-90 final with Connecticut earlier this year. But I envision a lower scoring game taking place this go around. Take the Under.
Phoenix does come in leading the league with an 88.3 PPG scoring average. At the same time, they're dead last in points allowed at 88.9 per game. But... let's not that their last game (a 104-97 win over NY) went to overtime and another recent game (a 117-111 loss to Dallas on June 18th) went to triple overtime. So those results still greatly influence their overall numbers with the season still being only a month old. Sunday's win in New York also marked the first time this month that the Mercury shot 50% (or better) in a game.
Connecticut covered for me in their last game, as big 16.5 point underdogs at Los Angeles. The final score there was "only" 80-73. Obviously, this will be the highest total for any Sun game so far this season. It's also the highest total for any Mercury game this season. In fact, it's currently set to be the highest WNBA total for any game this season! 10* Under Sun/Mercury
|06-28-16||Atlanta Dream v. Seattle Storm UNDER 165.5||Top||81-84||Win||100||14 h 45 m||Show|
10* Under Dream/Storm (10:05 ET): Host Seattle is off its highest scoring game of the season, a 98-81 win over Connecticut where I laid the points and won. While it wasn't the first time that the Storm topped 90 pts this season, it did mark their best shooting night of the season to date (61.4%), so I think it would to safe to assume there will be some sort of dropoff here. Scoring is definitely on the rise this season in WNBA, but this number simply seems "too high." Take the Under.
Atlanta has played FOUR overtime games this season, including one that went to double OT that they lost (won the other three). So some of their final scores this year have been inflated by extra time. That certainly includes the 2OT loss vs. New York last week, a game that saw them finish w/ only 79 points anyway! They followed that up w/ another lackluster effort, this time scoring only 69 pts in a regulation loss at San Antonio (I got burned there as I had the Dream). Note that there has been only one time in the L9 games where Atlanta has shot better than 46% from the floor. They're at 41.4% for the season, a percentage that isn't conducive to producing Overs on a regular basis.
I mentioned that scoring has been up this year in the WNBA. That's apparent when you consider the total for both games these teams played in 2015 was only 147.5. Here, we're dealing with a number that's almost 20 pts higher! That says "VALUE" to me. Helping to drive up said value is the fact Seattle has gone Over in each of its last three games. Remember that Atlanta has been the worst three-point shooting team in the league this season, hitting at only a pitiful 25.3% clip! That combined w/ Seattle's likely regression from the last game have me calling for a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under Dream/Storm
|10-06-15||Indiana Fever v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 146.5||Top||71-77||Win||100||33 h 31 m||Show|
10* Over Fever/Lynx (8:05 ET): Game 1 of the WNBA Finals went even better than I anticipated as underdog Indiana (+6) didn't even need the points, taking the game outright 75-69. I said coming in that I though the Fever were the better team here and they showed it Sunday, taking the game despite shooting only 36 percent overall from the floor. The key, and this has been the case all season, was that Indiana was still able to maintain its season average of 33% (5 for 15) from behind the three-point arc. Given that I liked the Fever in Game 1 and they're in a similar price range, it would stand to reason that I'd come back w/ them here. But Minnesota is 19-3 SU all-time at home in the playoffs and likely to come back strong. Therefore, let's turn to the total, which I feel is too low. Take the Over.
Game 1 did stay Under (by three points) and it was the third straight Under for the Fever overall. Minnesota has also gone Under in three straight and is surprisingly 25-15 Under in all games this season. But it seems reasonable to expect the Lynx to be better here at the offensive end compared to Game 1 when they missed eight of 23 free throw attempts. They also missed 8 of 10 three-pointers, a well below average performance. Remember that Indiana was just average from behind the arc themselves. So, tonight should feature better three-point shooting and likely better shooting overall. Game 1 staying Under was pretty much solidified w/ the first quarter ending in a 10-10 tie. That's very low scoring and can likely be "blamed" on the long layoff between series.
Indiana is 22-19 Over for the season and this is pretty low total for them. They average 77.6 points per game while allowing 75.4. The lowest total for any Fever game this season was 145 points. Sunday actually marked their worst overall shooting game of these playoffs. They are 10-6 Over this season when playing w/ exactly one day of rest. As for Minnesota, they may be allowing only 69 PPG this year at home, but Game 1 marked the second time in the playoffs they allowed at least 75 pts (in three chances). Offensively, the duo of Seimone Augustus & Lindsay Whalen almost certainly HAVE to improve upon their 13 combined points from Game 1 that came on just 14 attempts. 10* Over Fever/Lynx
|09-22-15||LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 145.5||Top||80-91||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
8* Over Sparks/Lynx (9:05 ET): I successfully played LA in Game 2 as they took care of business at home, winning 81-71 as a slight favorite. In the analysis, I made my case why I think the Sparks are a much better team than their record (were w/o Candace Parker first half of season) and could possibly be undervalued in the series. However, for tonight's deciding Game 3, I'll be forsaking the side and instead making a play on the total. Prior to Game 2, four of the five matchups (Game 1 included) between these two had stayed Under the total. But the teams combined for 152 points on Sunday, despite average shooting on both sides, so I'm pretty confident that we'll be seeing another Over Tuesday night.
The key to Minnesota's home success (14-4 SU) has been the fact they allow just 68.6 points per game. They were even below that in the Game 1 victory (67-65) and it is troubling that Los Angeles has been held to 66 pts or fewer in each of its last four road games. But, for the season, they do average 71.7 PPG away from home. Tonight's total would be on the low end of the spectrum for them as looking at all games YTD, there's been only one O/U line since July 1st that's been lower and that was a September 3rd matchup w/ Washington that flew past the number by more than 40 points! Early in the season, back in June, scoring league-wide was down. So there were actually six O/U lines lower than this one that month, but the Sparks went 4-2 Over in those games.
This total is also on the low end of the spectrum for the Lynx. In fact, depending on your closing O/U lines, there really isn't one any lower all season. They average 76.8 PPG at home and should be able to take advantage of a Sparks' defense which is allowing 75.9 PPG on the road. When looking at season averages, whether overall, or the Lynx at home and the Sparks on the road, they all add up to (slightly) going Over this total. The potential loss of Nneka Ogwumike will hurt the Sparks, but w/ Parker (20.5 PPG in the series) leading the way, they'll still score their "fair share." On the Minnesota end, Maya Moore has been fantastic (50% shooting) and should get more help from her supporting cast tonight. 8* Over Sparks/Lynx
|09-06-15||New York Liberty v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 143||Top||75-71||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
10* Over Liberty/Lynx (7:05 ET): This is a matchup of the two conference leaders (potential Finals preview?) and while the East-leading Liberty can clinch homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs w/ a win here and also lead the league in fewest points allowed, I see a ton of value on the Over in this one. Due to a recent rash of Unders from both squads, we have a really low total Sunday night in Minnesota, one that's significantly lower than both are accustomed to seeing. In fact, I have it as the lowest O/U for either team in any game this entire season! It's significantly lower than what we saw for the respective teams' last games and "total" (pardon the pun) over-adjustment by the linesmakers, IMO. Take the Over.
New York was surprisingly blown out, at home, in its last game as they surrendered 82 points to Chicago. That final score would have fallen just short of tonight's total, but you have to expect improvement on the offensive end after they shot just 34.8 percent from the floor Thursday. Also note that the Liberty's two previous games, both of which stayed Under, would have actually gone Over tonight's total. The team's scoring had been remarkably consistent prior to Thursday w/ them scoring between 77 and 81 pts nine times in 11 games. The two outliers were 73-pt and 90-pt performances. So, again, all we are asking for here is an "average" offensive performance by the Liberty. Though Minnesota tends to be much stingier on the defensive end here at home (68.5 PPG allowed), it's been their last two games that have severely affected that average.
The Lynx allowed an average of just 63 PPG in B2B double digit victories over Phoenix and Indiana. But note that Friday's win over the Fever would have also gone Over tonight's total. There, the team broke out of a shooting slump by connecting on 53.1% of their FG attempts en route to 81 points, their most in a game since mid-August. But that shouldn't have been too surprising considering that they average a solid 78.1 PPG here at home. Again, all we're asking for is an "average" offensive performances. If both sides do that, then this one will fly Over the number. 10* Over Liberty/Lynx
|09-02-15||Washington Mystics v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 140||Top||53-73||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
8* Over Mystics/Mercury (3:35 ET): Due to recent results (from both sides), we have a very low total here. In fact, in doing research on both teams' respective seasons, it is the lowest O/U line for any Phoenix game while Washington had just one lower, all the way back on June 23rd and that game proceeded to go Over the total by more than 25 points! I think we have something similar on tap Wednesday afternoon as a little "market correction" is in order. Both teams have been scoring well under their season averages of late, including in a 71-63 Mystics win over the Mercury on August 28th. If even one of them gets "back to normal" for today's rematch, then this game is going to go Over the total.
Phoenix is clearly not the same dominant team they were last season. They've dropped two straight and five of seven coming into today. In all five losses during that stretch, they've been held under 70 points. This is a team that still averages 74.8 points per game this season though, 78.1 at home. Yet, with the decline in scoring, the team is 7-1-2 Under its last 10 games. But consider that the average total for those games is significantly higher than what the number is here. When playing at Washington last week, the Mercury missed their final six shots and turned the ball over 20 times. It was low-scoring second half for them as well (26 pts), which was also the case Sunday in Minnesota when they were even worse (22 pts). The key here is they're back at home where their scoring average rises significantly.
Washington is also off a dreadful shooting night, one that saw them make just 36.4% of their FG attempts in a 69-59 loss to non-contender Seattle. The Under is now 6-1 their seven games overall and 10-3 in all road games this season. But their average score for the season is 73.6-70.8, which would work out to an Over here. They scored only 20 pts in the second half in Sunday's loss, which would be nearly impossible to duplicate. Again, this number I feel is an overreaction to recent results. Each team's full body of work through the course of the season suggests this game could easily fly Over the total. The Over is 6-1 in Phoenix's last seven games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 8* Over Mystics/Mercury
|09-01-15||Connecticut Sun v. Indiana Fever UNDER 152||Top||51-81||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
10* Under Sun/Fever (7:05 ET): We're coming down the "home stretch" of the WNBA regular season and neither of these teams have been playing well of late. For Indiana, despite an ill-timed three-game losing streak, they should be fine as they're still in third place in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games clear of fifth place Connecticut, whom they host tonight (top four in each conference make the playoffs). The Sun, who just snapped a seven-game losing streak, are in far more dire straits as they are one loss or one Washington win away from being eliminated from playoff contention altogether. With both teams struggling, I'm going to abstain from playing the side and instead look at the total. Take the Under.
Connecticut took advantage of a Chicago team that had just clinched a playoff spot the night before and was playing w/o Elena Delle Donna Sunday as they pulled off a 72-68 upset as nine-point dogs. Note, however, that the Sun trailed in that game by eight points through three quarters and had just 47 pts. Twice in their previous three games, they were held below their season average of 75.9 PPG, including a dreadful 57-point effort on the road at Atlanta. This team is still w/o its co-leading scorer, Alex Bentley (14.7 PPG), and while Kelsey Bone has been able to pick up the slack the L2 games w/ 47 points, I do not believe that to be sustainable. The team has scored just 70 and 73 pts the last two meetings vs. the Fever.
Indiana is looking to sweep the season series here and in terms of the Under, the key is obviously Connecticut holding up defensively. Fortunately, Indiana shot just 38.6% from the floor its last time out (lost 76-70 at Tulsa) and the offensive numbers would have been a whole lot worse had Tamika Catchings not gone for 22 pts on 7 of 10 shooting. The other four starters combined to miss 28 of 41 FG attempts. Also, their opponents made 17 of 19 free throws, something we should not have to worry about w/ the Sun, who are dead last in the league in terms of free throw percentage (73.8%). While the Over is 12-3 in Indiana home games this year (6-0 L6), I see this one staying Under. 10* Under Sun/Fever
|08-21-15||LA Sparks v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 146||Top||78-68||Push||0||14 h 24 m||Show|
10* Over Sparks/Mercury (10:05 ET): This looks like a really good value on the Over in the wake of some uncharacteristic low-scoring from both sides of late. Phoenix is 4-0-1 Under its last five games and 16-8 Under for the year, which seems odd given what we saw from them last season. They are off back to back dismal shooting performances (43 of 120 overall) in outright losses to Indiana and Tulsa. Considering they're at 44.6% for the year at home, we should see improvement tonight. As for Los Angeles, their string of impressive efforts at the defensive end probably cannot be maintained as four of their last five opponents have shot below 40% from the field. For both teams, this is a low total. Take the Under.
This will be the third matchup of the season between these two Western Conference rivals. The last two both took place in LA and the first went Over. While there was overtime in that one, the game actually went Over the total (155.5) in regulation, quite easily, as only 15 total pts were scored in the extra period. The last meeting wasn't nearly as high scoring (70-65 Sparks' win), but as you can see there's been a significant decrease in the O/U line comparing the first game to tonight's. That screams value to me as the Mercury are due to turn things around offensively following the B2B poor shooting efforts. Remember that this is a team that led the league in scoring last season at 83.5 PPG. At home this year, they're at 78.8 PPG.
The Sparks have struggled on the road this season and a big reason for that is they're allowing more than 78 PPG in those 11 contests (2-9 straight up). On Tuesday, they gave up 79 pts in a DD home loss to Indiana. They also only managed just one basket themselves over the game's final four minutes. It was a tale of two halves as they scored 44 pts in the first half, but gave up 49 in the second. The O/U line here is well below their season average as is the case for Phoenix as well. Last time out, the Mercury scored their fewest points since Brittney Griner's first game back. The likelihood of Griner & DeWanna Bonner combining to shoot 6 of 23 from the field again (like they did last game) is minimal. 10* Over Sparks/Mercury
|08-16-15||Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 159||Top||77-90||Loss||-110||7 h 40 m||Show|
10* Under Sun/Dream (3:05 ET): These two teams have combined to go Over the total in their last seven games, but I say that streak comes to an end Sunday afternoon in Atlanta as the visitors are highly unlikely to be torched the way they were Friday when they allowed the Liberty to score 90 points on better than 50% shooting. At the same time, they shot the ball lights-out early (over 60%) and finished the game having made more than they missed. They've now scored 78 or more each of their last four home games, but on the road the team is shooting barely over 40% for the year. Today's total is significantly higher than any in the L10 games. Take the Under.
Atlanta is the one team in the Eastern Conference currently sporting a losing record. It's well deserved too as they're allowing a league-high 81.4 points per game after allowing 100+ twice in their last six games. Overall, the Over is 7-1 their last eight games. But the Dream aren't known for scoring; they average just 73.8 PPG here at home on worse than 40 percent shooting. They did manage 82 points in a near upset of Minnesota Friday, but shot only 38.5%. It was their second straight strong effort on the offensive end as they dropped 98 earlier in the week on fading Tulsa, but note that Connecticut came into its last game ranked third in the entire league in points allowed. Both teams should be cooling off at the offensive end here.
This will be the first of three times these teams will play in the next nine days. They've played two times previously and neither final score (75-70 & 82-64, both in favor of the Sun) even approached what the total is here, yet we've seen a dramatic increase in the number from the linesmakers anyway compared to those first two matchups. That's all about recent performance, but as discussed earlier, both sides are likely to cool off offensively, particularly the Dream, who very well could be deflated after blowing a 16-pt lead Friday and losing. For the record, the totals for those two prior meetings were 151.5 and 146. Some real nice value here, in my opinion. 10* Under Sun/Dream
|07-07-15||Tulsa Shock v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 151.5||Top||85-75||Loss||-103||12 h 22 m||Show|
10* Under Shock/Dream (8:05 ET): Well, after scoring a combined 124 points in B2B road losses to Seattle and Phoenix, the injury-riddled Shock managed 95, but still lost Friday at Los Angeles. While having three days off is nice, this will be the fourth straight road game for Tulsa and considering their dire roster situation, I expect them to struggle offensively tonight in Atlanta. In case you didn't know, the Shock started the year as the biggest surprise in the league at 8-1, even though they were missing both Glory Johnson (pregnant) and leading scorer Odyssey Sims. But the subsequent loss of Skylar Diggins (for the season) to an ACL injury has resulted in three losses and despite what happened vs. LA, I still wonder where the offense comes from on a consistent basis. Take the Under in this one.
With Diggins now out, Tulsa's scoring average of 80 points per game must be taken w/ a grain of salt. Yes, they did just record a season high 95 pts Friday. But I don't think the team can count on 22 pts again from Riquna Williams given that she scored only seven the previous game. Rookie Jordan Hooper also scored a career-high 14 pts (made four three-pointers) Friday. Defense has been an issue lately w/ B2B opponents shooting over 50 percent from the floor, but fortunately for the Shock, Atlanta is averaging only 72.7 PPG this year while shooting less than 40 percent overall. The game vs. the Sparks featured 19 three-pointers made and a franchise record (for the Sparks) from Kristi Toliver, who scored 43 points. Again, those kind of numbers are difficult to duplicate on a game by game basis.
As for Atlanta, they have gone Under in four of their previous five games and this will be the highest total of the year for them, save for a pair of games against Chicago. They were somewhat lucky to get the cover Sunday vs. Seattle as four made free throws in the final 24 seconds put them "in the money." It was the fourth time this season that they held an opponent under 70 pts and three of those have come here at home. The one Over in the L5 games was an overtime game. Only two of their last nine games would have gone Over tonight's O/U line. 10* Under Shock/Dream
|07-03-15||Tulsa Shock v. Los Angeles Sparks UNDER 148.5||Top||95-98||Loss||-106||21 h 15 m||Show|
8* Under Shock/Sparks (10:35 ET): For the 1st time this season, Los Angeles is able to celebrate a victory as they came from behind to defeat San Antonio here at home last night, 86-81. They trailed by as many as 12 pts in the first half, but ended up recording a season-high in points scored and their fifth straight Over in the process. I was on several of those Overs as the league-wide trend of low scoring games resulted in some very low O/U lines. But now we find the highest total for any Sparks' game all season and I think it's the right time to "switch course" as they'll be taking on a depleted Tulsa team that's also playing in the second night of back to backs. Take the Under.
I went against Tulsa last night, part of my 2-0 WNBA Sweep, as they got hammered 86-55. The Shock had been the surprise of the league w/ an 8-1 start, despite missing both leading scorer Odyssey Sims as well as Glory Johnson. But another injury, a season-ending one (ACL) to Skylar Diggins, has decimated this roster. In yday's analysis, I openly wondered "where the offense would now come from" for Tulsa and sure enough they delivered a season-low 55 points Thursday on horrific 28.2% shooting. Keep in mind that in their first game w/o Diggins, they scored a then season-low 69 pts in a loss at Seattle. I called that an "ominous sign" in yday's analysis and sure enough they were even worse last night.
This is an interesting number in the sense that it's the highest O/U line of the year for the Sparks, but the lowest for the Shock. But it should be the lowest for the Shock given all the injuries and what we've seen the last two games. By the way, Los Angeles remains the lowest scoring team in the league (68.4 PPG) and they actually average fewer points per game at home. Only twice last year, last night included, has this team scored more than 70 points in regulation. Meanwhile, Tulsa has shot worse than 36 percent in three of its last four games. Of course, LA has been just as depleted as the Shock is now, for most of the year. With two unrested teams facing off, I envision tired legs and a low-scoring affair. 8* Under Shock/Sparks
|07-02-15||Washington Mystics v. Indiana Fever UNDER 155.5||Top||50-73||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
10* Under Mystics/Fever (7:05 ET): This will actually be my first 'Under' play of the year in the WNBA! At the start of the season, scoring was way down league-wide, and as a result I was able to take advantage of some very low totals. Now, those low (sub-140 pts) totals seem to have disappeared and it's time to head in the other direction. Let's examine the case of Washington, shall we? The Mystics started the season by going Under in each of their first four games, but have since gone Over in four out of five. It's a somewhat similar story in Indiana, who is 6-2 Over its last eight games. The end result is that this is the highest O/U line for any Mystics game this season (currently) and the second highest for the Fever. Take the Under.
These teams did play two weeks ago, here in Indiana, and the final score was 87-75 (in favor of Washington), meaning the Over hit. But notice the huge difference in the O/U line there compared to tonight. It's about an eight-point difference, which just screams value to me. The only game w/ a higher total than this one for Indiana was immediately following that loss to the Mystics (164.5) when they lost again here at home (to Chicago), 83-77, making the Under a winner. A lack of defense is an admitted concern w/ this Fever team as right now they rank 12th (dead last) in points allowed at 82.7 per game. But they've been above that average for three straight games now and due to improve. I also can't see them coming close to matching Tuesday's 92-point effort (on 55.4% shooting!) in a win at Connecticut.
Washington has topped 80 pts in four of its last five. But they also were held to only 69 in their last road game, a loss at Atlanta. As a team, the Mystics have shot the ball very well from three-point range the L4 games (16 of 29), but that's a pace that likely cannot be kept up. Just to give you an idea of how inflated this total is, consider that the O/U line has not been above 148 pts in any of the past 10 matchups. 10* Under Mystics/Fever
|06-28-15||Los Angeles Sparks v. New York Liberty OVER 139||Top||70-79||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
10* Over Sparks/Liberty (3:05 ET): Perennial league powerhouse Los Angeles remains the league's lone winless team (0-6) entering Sunday, but at least they've been more competitive over their last two games, losing both by only four points. Injuries have decimated what was once an impressive roster, but the team is getting a little bit healthier now and more pertinent to this discussion is the fact they've also been scoring more on this road trip. They've averaged 78 PPG the L2 games, both of which have seen me cash the Over, so w/ another low total vs. Sunday, I'm "sticking to the script."
New York is a team that has been trending Under recently. Their last five games have all finished that way, their most recent being a 71-62 loss at red hot Tulsa. That followed an outright win at Atlanta where they scored 73 pts. It's interesting that those two opponents have shot the ball incredibly poor as the Shock won despite a 33.9 field goal percentage and the Dream were even worse at 29.7%. Only 10th in the league in scoring, the Liberty must pick up the pace offensively. The good news is that Tina Charles is likely due to a turnaround. She's averaged just 8.5 points per game the last four contests (4 for 14 from the field last game) after averaging 18.8 PPG the first four games of the year. Only one player on the team was in double figures Friday vs. Tulsa, but the good news is that LA is allowing 83.3 PPG on the road this season.
The Sparks are last in the league in scoring (65.2). But as outlined above, they've been better recently. Also, this is again a low total. In fact, it's currently the lowest O/U line of the season for the Liberty. As I've been writing about recently, scoring has been down league-wide this year in the WNBA and that has led to some very low totals being posted. That's what we have here and I'll look to continue my streak of winning Over picks here. For a point of reference, nine of the past ten matchups between these two teams have seen an O/U line of 153 pts or higher. 10* Over Sparks/Liberty
|06-27-15||Seattle Storm v. San Antonio Stars OVER 142||Top||71-73||Win||100||13 h 15 m||Show|
10* Over Storm/Silver Stars (8:00 ET): There is the possibility of some real bad basketball here as two of the league's worst teams square off in San Antonio Saturday night. The Stars are off their first win of the season, Thursday here at home vs. Phoenix, 76-71 as 2.5-pt dogs. That's bad news for a Seattle squad whose only two wins this year came at the expense of still-winless Los Angeles. Other than those victories, the Storm have lost four times by double digits and they also fell Thursday, 76-73 at home to Minnesota (covered as 10.5 pt dogs). These are two of the lowest scoring teams in the league, but as I've noted previously the league-wide decrease in scoring has led to some deflated totals across the board. That's the case here as I'm taking the Over.
San Antonio is only averaging 69.3 points per game, but their last two games happen to represent their highest scoring efforts of the season. The 87 points they scored in a loss to Chicago last Saturday came w/ overtime, but note they actually had 83 pts at the end of regulation. Thursday night saw them shoot a season-best 42.9 percent from the field. Defensively, they probably won't be as fortunate as they were there as Phoenix missed its first 10 shots from the floor. The Under might be 6-1 in all Stars' games so far, but tonight marks the lowest total of the season - by several points.
Seattle averages even fewer points per game (66.3) than San Antonio and doesn't even have a single double-digit scorer on the roster right now. But as a team, they've scored above their season average in B2B games, their two best offensive efforts since the season opener. Consider they scored only 22 second half points in Thursday's loss vs. Minnesota. But if one were to look at things w/ a "glass half full" approach, you'd point out that means they also scored 51 points before halftime. While in line w/ most of their games this season, tonight's total is pretty low even for the Storm, who have faced only one closing number lower than where this one is at currently. 10* Over Storm/Silver Stars
|06-26-15||Los Angeles Sparks v. Connecticut Sun OVER 140||Top||76-80||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
10* Over Sparks/Sun (7:05 ET): Los Angeles, perennially one of the real powerhouse (no pun intended) teams in the WNBA, is in the midst of a down year. With San Antonio winning for the first time last night, that leaves the Sparks as the league's lone winless team. But they did at least cover (as 11-pt dogs) at Washington their last time out, a game where I was on the Over and won easily. Beset by injuries, LA has been the league's lowest scoring team to this point (63 PPG) but in that loss to the Mystics they easily scored their season-high (80) for a second straight game. Scoring has been down this year in WNBA, but that's led to some low totals that we can take advantage of, which is the case here. Take the Over.
Meanwhile, there's no problems in Connecticut where the East-leading Sun are one of two teams in the league to be unbeaten against the pointspread (7-0 ATS). Their lone SU loss this year came in the season opener, by just five points, to Washington. They are averaging 76.7 points per game so far and while they currently lead the league defensively (68.0 PPG), I expect that latter number to start going up. The Sparks won't be quite as short-handed here as they were when they last faced the Sun as Nneka Ogwumike will be back and so to could Kristi Toliver.
While Los Angeles played Washington three days ago, this will be the second game of a home and home between them and Connecticut, who won 76-68 in LA on June 21st. The Sun haven't played since. That first meeting went Over the total, so it's no surprise that the total here is higher, but it's still not high enough. There's been only one game all year for the Sun that didn't see at least 140 total pts scored. Meanwhile, three of LA's five games have crossed that same threshold. Consider that coming into this season, the previous nine matchups between these two teams all had totals of at least 150 points. 10* Over Sparks/Sun
|06-25-15||Phoenix Mercury v. San Antonio Silver Stars OVER 148.5||Top||71-76||Loss||-105||20 h 55 m||Show|
10* Over Mercury/Silver Stars (8:05 ET): About a week ago, many in WNBA betting circles began noting how far scoring had fallen league-wide this season and it was at that point I decided that I would look to start going Over in certain situations. This is one of those times. When Phoenix and San Antonio hooked up the first time this season, the total was 152. The final result was 76-71 in favor of the Mercury, an Under, but we can use that to our advantage here as the O/U line is several points lower for the rematch and both teams are off their highest scoring games of the season. Yes, I'm aware that the Silver Stars went to OT their last time out, but still there were signs that this winless team is turning things around. Take the Over here.
San Antonio is a league-worst 0-6 SU and only two teams, one of them injury-plagued Los Angeles, are averaging fewer points per game than the Stars' 68.2. But you'll recall that it was just two days ago that I played LA Over the total and that game (vs. Washington) flew past a number that was way too low. I feel that we're dealing w/ a similar situation here. While there was overtime for the Silver Stars on Saturday, note that game vs. Chicago did go Over in regulation - by a double digit margin. Defensively, this team is allowing nearly 80 PPG and has given up more than that (in regulation) in two of their past three contests. Another sign of good value here is the fact that each of the L10 matchups between these teams has seen a total north of 152 points.
Phoenix is clearly not the same team as LY as they are w/o Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi. This will be the final game that Griner is suspended (domestic violence). She is missed mainly on the defensive end where her 3.8 blocks per game easily led the league last year. Overall, the Mercury are now allowing an average of 74 PPG w/ Griner out of the lineup. I took them their last time out, an 84-72 win over Seattle, which was probably their sharpest outing of the season so far, save for perhaps the upset of Minnesota. But San Antonio is coming off a game where six players scored in double figures and one of them wasn't leading scorer Jia Perkins (8 pts). 10* Over Mercury/Silver Stars
|06-23-15||LA Sparks v. Washington Mystics OVER 138||Top||80-84||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
10* Over Sparks/Mystics (8:05 ET): Scoring has been down this season in WNBA, way down in fact, and that's owed primarily to the struggles of Los Angeles. Perennially one of the league's stronger teams, 2015 has seen the Sparks struggle mightily due primarily to injury and they come in winless, averaging a scant 58.8 points per game (obviously, a league worst). But they did score a season-high 68 pts in Sunday's home loss to Connecticut and that game did go Over the total. Here, they'll be taking on a Washington team that has scored 80+ pts in B2B games after going Under in each of its first four. Scoring is due to increase league-wide & the total here is far too low. Take the Over.
This will, in fact, be the lowest total for any Mystics' game to date this season. It has everything to do w/ the opponent, but still seems odd considering that like LA, Washington is coming off a season-high in points scored. They went to Indiana Saturday and prevailed 87-75 thanks in large part to shooting 51.7% for the game (season best). They were 10 of 22 from three-point range. However, also concerning has been the Mystics' lack of defense these last two games as they've allowed 161 total pts. Of course, that's nothing compared to the struggles of the Sparks, who allowed 46 second half points in Sunday's loss. They've allowed better than 50 percent shooting in two of the four games. At some point though, they're also due to shoot better themselves, particularly from three point range. They're at just 24.3 percent for the year from behind the arc. The Sparks did go Over a lower total Sunday and I think this number is still too low as well. 10* Over Sparks/Mystics
|09-09-14||Chicago Sky v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 155||Top||68-97||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
10* Over Sky/Mercury (9:05 ET): Including regular season, these teams have now gone Under all three times they have played this season. The streak is actually at four games if you go basck to the final encounter of last season. But with the oddsmakers continuing to dip the number, I feel that the value is now on the Over as we still have the highest scoring team in the league (Phoenix) playing at home. The Mercury scored 83 pts in their Game 1 rout Sunday afternoon and that's actually slightly BELOW their YTD scoring average at home this season of 85.2 PPG. For Chicago, the Over has cashed four straight times following a SU defeat. That's the way I see this game going as this is the lowest total I've seen posted for a Phoenix home game in some time.
In Game 1, the Mercury shot a blistering 58.5 percent from the floor. It was their second consecutive game shooting the ball at a 58% clip, but this time they finished w/ fewer points than what they had when they eliminated Minnesota last Tuesday w/ a 96-78 win. Unfortunately, as well as Phoenix shot the ball, Chicago was just as bad at 31.9 percent. While the Mercury's 58.5% was a WNBA Finals record and thus isn't likely to be matched here, it's also reasonable to assume the Sky will shoot a lot better here in Game 2. For the season, the Mercury average 85 PPG at home and that's on 50% shooting. An "average" Phoenix performance at home should help send this one Over, provided Chicago improves.
The Sky do allow an average of 78.4 PPG this season and have given up at least 77 pts in all but one of their playoff games so far. So, again, it's not Phoenix scoring that I'm worried about. Chicago did score 80+ pts in all three games in the Atlanta series and also a playoff-high 86 pts in a win over Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals. It's highly unlikely that they will shoot as poorly again as they did in Game 1 as they went the entire month of August w/out shooting below 41% in a game. 10* Over Sky/Mercury.