|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5||Top||9-31||Win||100||248 h 59 m||Show|
Play - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Game 102)
Edges - Buccaneers: Head coach Bruce Arians is 11-1-1 ATS at home as a non-division dog in his NFL career, including 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a double-digit win; and quarterback Tom Brady is 20-4 SU at home in the postseason in his NFL career, including 10-0 against greater than .705 opponents, and Brady is 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored, including 9-0-1 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season … Chiefs: Head coach Andy Reid is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite in his NFL career when coming off consecutive wins and facing a foe coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-5 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 4.5 points; and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 0-3 as a road favorite versus winning foes coming off consecutive wins, as well as 0-2 ATS as a road favorite when the Chiefs are playing with a week of rest … We cement the call noting that Super Bowl teams with a lesser win percentage than their opponent are 13-1 ATS since 2004, including 13-0 ATS when not coming off a championship game win of 20 or more points. In addition, teams coming off a SU underdog win in their championship game, are 14-4-1 ATS since 1980 when facing an opponent not coming off an underdog win, including 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS since 2002. With that, we recommend a 10* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you, enjoy the game, and good luck as always.