|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Clippers v. Spurs OVER 221.5||Top||103-95||Loss||-106||7 h 56 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER 221.5 L.A. Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET – The value with this bet is obvious as they just met a few weeks back and Vegas had a total set of 226 on the game. That contest finished with 233 total points scored and this game will be similar. In their last five games the Clippers defense has allowed 118.4PPG with opponents making nearly 48% of their FG attempts. L.A. is the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA and will look to push the tempo here. San Antonio doesn’t play as fast as the Clippers but they are much more efficient offensively averaging 1.130 points per possession (6th best in NBA). Surprisingly, the Spurs are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings as are the Clippers. Two of the three meetings this season have gone Over the Total as have 5 of the last six. Bet OVER the total here.
|01-20-19||South Dakota v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 149||Top||68-75||Loss||-109||6 h 56 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 149 Points - South Dakota @ Nebraska Omaha, Sunday at 7:00 PM ET
UNO is the most efficient offense in the Summit League and they play fast. The Mavs have scored at least 80 points in every league game and they’ve topped 90 in three of their five Summit League games. Going back even further Nebraska Omaha has scored at least 80 in 8 straight games. They are facing a South Dakota defense that has allowed at least 70 points in all 5 of their Summit League games. Now they face the #1 offense in the league and a team that shoots nearly 52% from the field at home. We expect UNO to put up at least 80 here. Defensively, Omaha is bad. While they can score points, they also can’t stop anybody. They rank 323rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 330th in eFG% defense. The Mavs allow 80 PPG on the season. In conference play they are allowing 82 PPG and 4 of the 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 239th or lower in efficiency. In other words, everyone is scoring on Omaha. This total is set at 149 which means the oddsmakers are looking for a 77-72 type final score. We just don’t see it being that low scoring. As we stated we expect Omaha to get to at least 80 and we wouldn’t be surprised if South Dakota pushed upper 70’s to low 80’s here. This is the lowest total set in this series in the last 10 meetings. These to have topped 150 in 6 of their last 7 meetings. Another high scoring game here and we take the OVER here.
|01-19-19||Cincinnati v. Wichita State +4.5||Top||66-55||Loss||-111||14 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH
We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in. This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team. They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road. Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog. After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well. They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT. WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half. They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9). They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record. The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win. That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column. We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati. They are not playing at the top of their game right now. After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games. They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home. Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above. They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG. Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to. This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog. The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog. They do the same here. Wichita pulls the upset.
|01-18-19||Heat +1.5 v. Pistons||Top||93-98||Loss||-109||9 h 12 m||Show|
ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!
|01-18-19||Maryland v. Ohio State -2||Top||75-61||Loss||-110||20 h 4 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET
This is an absolute must win for OSU. They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0. Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game. OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State. The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win. The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU. Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year. They play very hard and play excellent defense. Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road. They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs). Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game. Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them. This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins. They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3. Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game. Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win. Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt. Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here. This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do. Take the Buckeyes.
|01-17-19||IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 164.5||Top||76-70||Loss||-109||8 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 164.5 Points - IUPUI @ UW Green Bay, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET
UWGB is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation (8th nationally in tempo) and IUPUI loves to play fast as well (87th in tempo). The Phoenix average 80 possessions per game (5th nationally) and IUPUI averages 74 possessions per game. While that comes out to 154 possessions, those numbers include games vs slower paced teams so we expect more than 154 possessions in this game. If those numbers turn out to be accurate, we’ll need these teams to average just a bit more than 1.00 point per possession which we expect them to easily accomplish. Both have poor defenses with UWGB ranking 295th in adjusted defensive efficiency and IUPUI comes in at 212th in that category. They also both tend to send their opponents to the line a lot which rolls up free points with the clock stopped. In UWGB games, at least one team has reached 90 or more points in 5 straight games. The Phoenix defense has allowed 91 PPG in their 5 Horizon League contests. Even UW Milwaukee, who ranks 253rd nationally in scoring put up 82 points on Green Bay. On a points per possession basis, the GB defense has allowed 1.23, 1.28, 1.14, 1.18, and 1.14 PPP in their Horizon League games. On offense they’ve averaged 88 PPG in those 5 conference games and put up well over 1.00 PPP in each. As we stated above IUPUI’s defense isn’t much better as they’ve allowed 77 PPG in their 5 league games. Offensively they’ve been a bit more up and down, however when the Panthers play fast paced teams with below average defenses they have put points on the board. In this one, IUPUI will absolutely have to score points to keep and and they will against a bad GB defense. These two teams have combined to play 32 games and 22 of those have gone OVER the total. With this spread sitting at GB -3 and a total of 164.5 or 165, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 84-81 or somewhere in that vicinity. We expect at least one of these teams to push 90 or break that barrier with the other at least in the 80’s OVER is the wager here.
|01-16-19||Iowa State +5.5 v. Texas Tech||Top||68-64||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET
Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice. They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire. Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points. Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here. Getting points will be valuable. ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points. Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining. This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference. We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion. They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night. The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting. Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight. ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more. We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one. That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency). They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games. We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright. Take the points.
|01-16-19||Auburn v. Texas A&M +7||Top||85-66||Loss||-115||7 h 56 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers. We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week. Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck. Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday. They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight. On top of that, this team struggles on the road. They have played just 2 true road games this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points. They were FAVORED in both. They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots. Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games. They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts. A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend. In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1. They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home. Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost. The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home. Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion. We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.
|01-16-19||Iowa v. Penn State -1.5||Top||89-82||Loss||-105||7 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes. Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record. The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win. We expect they’ll play very well in this game. The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season. They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland. Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league. Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season. The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home. We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook. That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team. The Hawks did come from 7 points down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits. The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season. Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU. The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark. Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday. The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games. PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.
|01-15-19||Marquette v. Georgetown +2||Top||74-71||Loss||-110||4 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One
Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion. Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end. They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton. Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle. First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime. Not once. On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds. Yes you read that correctly. Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation. We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close). Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year. They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games. They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots! The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that. Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points. They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again. The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games. Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles. G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year. Hoyas in this one outright.
|01-14-19||Blazers v. Kings -2.5||Top||107-115||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.
|01-14-19||Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 130.5||Top||60-64||Loss||-116||6 h 1 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 130.5 Points - Wisconsin @ Maryland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One
This total opened 137 and we were considering a small play on the OVER at that point. Now that it has dropped all the way to 131 as of this writing, we’ll definitely jump on this one and play the OVER. These are two solid shooting teams who are very efficient offensively. The Badgers shoot 49% on the season while Maryland has hit 48% of their shots. Both rank in the top 27 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Many think of Wisconsin as a low scoring team but that’s really not the case. They are averaging 75 PPG on the season while the Terps average 77 PPG. Sure they’ve both had a few stinkers offensively but for the most part these two teams have put points on the board. Maryland has put up at least 74 points in 7 straight games. They’ve been held under 70 points in just 3 of their 17 games this season and they are the only team to post 70+ this year vs Virginia who ranks 1st in the nation in scoring defense. The Badgers have played 16 games and been held under 70 points just 5 times. Both defenses have had some very good performances, however when they’ve faced good offenses they have given up points. Wisconsin has played 6 top 50 offenses (adjusted efficiency) and they are allowing 70 PPG on those contests. Maryland has also faced 6 top 50 offenses and they are giving up 71 PPG in those games. Where this line and total sit, the expected outcome is right around 67-64 in favor of Maryland. We think at least one of these two teams and possibly both get to 70 which will be enough to push this game OVER the total.
|01-13-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 217||Top||113-116||Loss||-109||8 h 24 m||Show|
UNDER 217 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET – Our math model projects less than 210 total points in this game and we couldn’t agree more. On the season these two teams are both slower than league averages with Portland ranking as the 13th slowest paced team in the league, Denver is the 4th slowest. In their most recent five games the Blazers have slowed to the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.8 possessions per game while the Nuggets are the 2nd slowest at 96.5 possessions. Last year when these two teams squared off in Denver they produced totals of just 170 and 205. The Blazers defense has been solid their last five games with the 7th best defensive efficiency numbers (1.066PPP) over that span of games. On the season the Nuggets are a top 10 defensive efficiency unit allowing just 1.078PPP, and they are better at home allowing just 1.049PPP. The Nugs are coming off a game last night in Phoenix and when they’ve played without rest this season their games have stayed below the number 5 of six times. Portland has played in two straight higher scoring games but they came at home against bad defenses. Different story here…BET UNDER!
|01-12-19||Spurs v. Thunder -5||Top||112-122||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.
|01-12-19||Arizona State v. Stanford +4||Top||71-85||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS). Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion. They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half. Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game. It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record). The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12. We expect an all out effort on Saturday. ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday. The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game. Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points. In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal). Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today. The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. Take the points with Stanford.
|01-12-19||Georgia v. Auburn -13.5||Top||78-93||Win||100||3 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH
We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here. Not only a loss but an embarrassing one. The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite. Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%. Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers. Really tough to overcome those two situations. Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back. They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road. The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee. They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd. For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee. The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13. Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia. The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally). The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage). Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint. The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here. Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago. We feel this one could turn into a blowout.
|01-11-19||Bucks v. Wizards OVER 226||Top||106-113||Loss||-110||2 h 52 m||Show|
ASA NBA play on: OVER 226 Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET – We’ll first address, Giannis and the fact that he’s resting tonight. We’ve seen this a million times in our handicapping careers and other players relish the opportunity and will step up in his absence. The Bucks are deep team with four other players other than the Greek Freak averaging 12 or more points and 8 other scoring more than 5PPG. Milwaukee is the 3rd ranked offensive efficiency unit in the league averaging 1.137 points per possession. In their last five games with John Wall out of the lineup, the Wiz have been better in terms of OEFF averaging 1.128PPP. Washington seems to have better ball movement without Wall and players have a more defined role offensively. Most importantly, the Wiz are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA this season with an average of 101.6 possessions per game. The Bucks also like to play up-tempo with the 5th fastest paced offensive at 102.8 possessions per game. Both teams have shot it extremely well in their last five contests with the Bucks averaging over 51% as a team while the Wizards have shot over 47% as a team their last five. In their last five games the Bucks and their foes have averaged 231 total points. Washington has averaged 225 in their last five. We will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference game.
|01-10-19||Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -1.5||Top||64-67||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET
Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now. After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games. They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation. That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team. Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday. It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU. They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara. Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team. They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175. They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally). That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot. Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.
|01-10-19||SMU v. Connecticut -135||Top||64-76||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UConn -135 on Money Line over SMU, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
PLAY ON THE MONEY LINE - UConn is on a 3 game losing streak and because of that we feel we are getting some value with the home team. Two of those losses came at the hand of top 35 teams Villanova & UCF. The other loss was @ South Florida vs a team that is red hot right now winning 8 of their last 9. UConn is 0-2 in the AAC and with their next 2 games coming @ Cincy & @ Tulsa so this becomes a must win game. SMU steps into Gampel Pavilion tonight with a 2-0 record in the AAC, however they have faced the two lowest rated teams in the league (Tulane & ECU). That seems to be a theme with the Mustangs as they have a solid record at 10-4, however they have played the 334th ranked strength of schedule. They have faced just 3 teams in the top 100 this year and they have lost 2 of those games. UConn has played the much tougher slate already facing the likes of Villanova, Iowa, Syracuse, Florida State, UCF, and Arizona. The Huskies will win this one with pressure and defense. They rank 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (SMU ranks 181st) and they create turnovers at a 23% rate (20th nationally). Since December 1st SMU has played only 2 teams in the top 100 at creating turnovers. ECU ranks 94th in that defensive category and TCU 93rd. Versus those two opponents SMU turned the ball over 21% & 23% of their possessions which is very high. Those two teams don’t compare to the UConn defense that ranks 20th in defensive turnover percentage so we expect the Mustangs to have problems handling the Huskies pressure tonight. We have this year’s UConn team rated 75 spots higher than last year’s team. We rated this year’s SMU team just a touch lower than last year’s squad. Even with that, last year’s UConn team took care of SMU here winning 63-52 as a 6-point dog. With SMU off a road win @ a bad ECU team and with big home games coming next week vs Tulsa & Houston, we feel they might be a big fat and happy at 2-0. UConn will play as if this is the biggest game of their season and pull off the win
|01-09-19||Florida -1.5 v. Arkansas||Top||57-51||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK
The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition. They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation. Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally. Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss. You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday. It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer. It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins. Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule. Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire. Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech. This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season. Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well. Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas). So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on. Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road.
|01-09-19||St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure +1||Top||47-73||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF THE WEEK
St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule. They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home. At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team. Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points. This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason. They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire. That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home. The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season. Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games. Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA. They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record. St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month. They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home. The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team. They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month. St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting. The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer. They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here. The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home. Now this line sits near a pick-em. While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year. We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday. Take St Bonaventure at home.
|01-08-19||Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 229||Top||119-117||Loss||-108||5 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10Star play on: #509/510 UNDER 228.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – We will take the value and bet UNDER in tonight’s contest. Vegas was high on the opening number of 223.5 but it didn’t stop the bettors from pushing this line up with 71% of the money flowing in on the Over. These two teams met just a few weeks ago and the number was 221.5 so you can see for yourself we are getting 7-full points of value from that O/U. Minnesota won that previous meeting 114-112 with both teams shooting over 47.8% from the field. That number is higher than their season averages of 45.2%. The Thunder are the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing just 1.023 points per possession. The Wolves are 16th or league average allowing 1.101PPP. The T’Wolves are slightly above average in offensive efficiency at 1.106 points per possession while the Thunder are 20th at 1.079PPP. Nine of the last ten meetings between these two teams have ended with less points scored than tonight’s number and based on the efficiency numbers we should see a game with around 219 total points. Bet UNDER!
|01-08-19||Iowa State v. Baylor +2.5||Top||70-73||Win||100||4 h 48 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday. For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation. ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons. On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60. It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury. Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up. They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12). In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots. They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81. The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man. It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not. Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday. Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining. We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday. We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday. The value is with Baylor here. They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State. Now they are getting points. The Bears pull the upset here.
|01-06-19||Memphis v. Houston -9.5||Top||77-90||Win||100||19 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET
We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74. On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road. Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st. They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis. They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120. If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100. Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State. Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points. They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November. They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral). Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season. Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses. Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense. The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points. We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home. The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58. Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers. The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%). The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games. We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.
|01-05-19||San Diego State v. Boise State -2.5||Top||64-88||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network
San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late. On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home. The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month. They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303). Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1. Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team. The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21. On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win. Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough. The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home. After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday. They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win. The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games. At home they allow only 39% for the season. This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team. Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now. We feel SDSU is just the opposite. Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena. These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.
|01-05-19||Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 225.5||Top||123-116||Loss||-113||9 h 22 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 225.5 Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:35PM ET
These are both top 10 teams in terms of defensive efficiency ratings as the Bucks (3rd) allow just 1.041 points per possession while the Raptors give up just 1.076PPP. Sticking with the defensive theme here the Bucks have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency FG percentage at 50% while the Raptors are 8th at 50.8%. We also love the scheduling dynamics here with the Raptors coming off a loss a few nights ago where they gave up 125 to San Antonio so expect a much better effort on the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks meanwhile are coming off a game last night versus the Hawks where they put up 144 points so don’t expect a repeat performance from that anomaly. Milwaukee and their opponents have averaged 216 total points per game when the Bucks played the previous night. The Bucks have faced some bad defenses lately in the Knicks, Hawks and Nets so this will be a different level of intensity against the Raptors. When these two teams last met on December 9th they combined for just 203 total points. We expect a very similar game to that last encounter and predict just 210 total points. The Under is 6-2 the last eight meetings between these foes on this court. Bet UNDER.
|01-04-19||Mavs +5.5 v. Celtics||Top||93-114||Loss||-109||5 h 36 m||Show|
ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.
|01-03-19||St. Mary's v. San Francisco -2||Top||72-76||Win||100||5 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2
Talk about a team flying under the radar. San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home. Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California. Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday. Tight losses vs very good teams. UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year. Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia. The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense). They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG. The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season. The Gaels are down this year. They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team. The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season). They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games. St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team. San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely. The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center. They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well. This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.
|01-02-19||Texas v. Kansas State UNDER 130||Top||67-47||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 130 Points - Texas @ Kansas State, Wed at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU
We had our eye on the UNDER in this one before the spreads were released hoping it would be higher than what we thought it should be. The total opened 123.5 and our numbers said 126 so while we did like it, the value wasn’t quite there. Now the total has risen all the way to 130 and it’s time for us to jump on the UNDER. These are two great defensive teams with KSU ranking 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and Texas ranks 10th in the same category. The Wildcat defense has not allowed an opponent to reach 60 points in 5 straight games dating back to December 1st. Nine of their 12 opponents have been held to 59 points or less. Texas has allowed just 3 of their 12 opponents to top 70 points (in regulation) so we fully expect this game to be played in the 60’s or lower. The offenses will have a lot to do with that as well as neither is very good. Both rank below 100th in adjusted efficiency offense and both rank below 220th in eFG%. Neither team shoots the 3 well with KSU hitting 31% (270th nationally) and Texas making just 32% (250th nationally). Neither team gets to the line very often and when they do they struggle with the Cats making just 63% and the Horns hitting 66%. These two Big 12 rivals have combined to play 24 games so far this year with only 7 going OVER the total. KSU is now 23-9-1 to the UNDER their last 33 games. Not only that, this has been a very low scoring series with 10 of the last 11 meetings going UNDER the total. The average total score the last 10 meetings in this series is just 124 and only ONE of the last 10 games has topped 133 points. As we said, now that this total is in the 130 point range (some 129.5’s and some 130.5’s) we like the value with the UNDER.
|01-02-19||Pistons v. Grizzlies -6||Top||101-94||Loss||-110||4 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.
|01-02-19||Georgetown v. Butler -9||Top||84-76||Loss||-105||3 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -9 over Georgetown, Wed at 7:00 PM ET
We expect a huge bounce back from the Bulldogs as they come off their worst loss since 1994. Butler traveled to Florida on Saturday, a team they had already beaten this year, and the Gators went off winning 77-43. It was the perfect storm with the motivated Gators shooting lights out at home (53%) and the normally solid shooting Bulldogs hitting just 30%. After outrebounding Florida in their other meeting this year, Butler was destroyed to the tune of 43-14 on the boards. No effort whatsoever from the Bulldogs which is not the norm for this team. Their coach Lavell Jordan and every player on this team was embarrassed following that effort on Saturday. While they are just 2-4 in games away from home (away/neutral) the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 at home at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they face Georgetown tonight. Hinkle provides one of the best home court advantages in college basketball and Butler has won 60 of their last 72 games here. They catch a G’Town team that has a solid 10-3 record but has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation this year ranking 313th in SOS. The Hoyas have played only 3 top 100 teams this year and they are 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming over #77 Liberty. They have also not been away from home in almost a month with their last road game coming on December 8th. On top of that the Hoyas look like they will not be at 100% for this one with leading scorer Mac McClung and starting forward Trey Mourning may both be out here. McClung, a freshman averaging 13 PPG, was out last game due to an injured ankle or at least that was the story they went with. He was not in the building for the game and there are rumors floating around that he may look to transfer. Either way, not a great situation. Mourning is still in concussion protocol. Butler shoots it very well at home (51% overall & 40% from deep) with an average margin of victory at 17 points. Facing a team that hasn’t been on the road in nearly a month & off their worst loss in 25 years, this one sets up for a potential Butler rout and we expect at least a double digit win.
|01-01-19||Marquette v. St. John's -1.5||Top||69-89||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Johns -1.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET
Love this spot for St Johns. We went against the Red Storm on Saturday and came up one point short as they lost @ Seton Hall 76-74 as a 3-point dog. We have to admit the Johnnies played much better than we thought they would. They were 12-0 coming into the game but hadn’t played a great schedule and nearly all of their games had been at home. They were taking on a Seton Hall team that had already beaten the likes of Kentucky & Maryland (on the road). St Johns proves us wrong as they led on the road for nearly the entire game including holding a 10 point lead with just 6:00 remaining in the game. In fact the Pirates largest lead of the game was just 2 points. The way the game ended should have St Johns motivated here as they lost on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Red Storm is now back at home where they have an average margin of victory of 18 PPG shooting nearly 50% from the field while allowing just 39%. Marquette has moved up the rankings all the way to #16 on the back of a 8 game winning streak. They have been doing their damage at home as this team has not left Milwaukee since November 23rd! They are just 1-2 in their 3 games away from home (away & neutral) and in their only true road game @ Indiana they Golden Eagles were rolled 96-73. They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot (35% of their points) which can be tough to maintain on the road, especially when you’ve played at home for over a month straight. Last year the Johnnies were favored by a similar number (-2) and won 86-78. They home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and there is a reason the unranked team (St Johns) is favored over the #16 team in the country. Lay the small number.
|12-30-18||Bulls v. Raptors -10||Top||89-95||Loss||-115||5 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border.
|12-29-18||Spurs v. Clippers -3.5||Top||122-111||Loss||-105||12 h 53 m||Show|
ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight.
|12-29-18||Oregon v. Boise State +2||Top||62-50||Loss||-108||24 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State +2 over Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network
We felt the Ducks came into this season overvalued ranking in the top 20 in most pre-season polls and undeserved in our opinion. They were a solid 23-13 a year ago but lost a number of key players and they are relying on young players this year. More so in this game as they have lost a few key contributors as of late. Starting forward Kenny Wooten was injured in their most recent game – a 10 point loss @ Baylor – and he is out. Freshman and leading scorer Bol Bol has missed 3 games and they are not sure if he can come back from a foot problem here. Even if he does, he won’t be 100%. Starter Abu Kigab is also out with an injury for this game. The Ducks will be relying here on a number of players who’ve seen very little action this year as their bench is ultra-thin due to the injuries. As we discuss our thoughts on Boise, you’ll see they are the direct opposite of Oregon. We feel the Broncos are undervalued due to their 5-7 record. This team is talented. They return 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s team that was 23-9. They also added one of the top JC transfers in the nation in RJ Williams who leads the Broncos in scoring at 15 PPG. They’ve had a tough start with 7 of their 12 games coming away from home. Four of their seven losses have come by 3 points or less and they’ve played some tough teams on the road including this Oregon team. Yes this is a rematch from a game played on December 15th. That game was in Eugene and the Ducks won 66-54 – a game that BSU shot just 35% while Oregon hit 49% of their shots. The Ducks also got some home cookin’ and made 9 more FT’s. Despite that, the game was close throughout with OU leading by single digits most of the 2nd half. The Ducks have played 2 true road games this year and lost them both. On the other side, Boise has a fantastic home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena where they are 34-5 SU their last 39! Very rarely do we get Boise as a home dog and we love this spot. The Broncos win outright at home.
|12-28-18||Nets v. Hornets -4.5||Top||87-100||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings. The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.
|12-27-18||Lakers +4.5 v. Kings||Top||116-117||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.
|12-26-18||Wolves -4 v. Bulls||Top||119-94||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th. Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP. It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight.
|12-22-18||Ohio State -6 v. UCLA||Top||80-66||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS
UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom). That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses. The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench. They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points). The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season. Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team. Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break. OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago. Ohio State won that game by 10 points. The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense. Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively. On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation. Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%. Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago. If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes.
|12-20-18||Ohio v. Purdue -16.5||Top||67-95||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight. They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule). Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54). All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points). This team could easily have a much better record. In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points. Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings. Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100. That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points. The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites. The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game. Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally). Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here. Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record). This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout.
|12-19-18||Cavs v. Hornets -13||Top||99-110||Loss||-109||5 h 41 m||Show|
ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.
|12-18-18||USC -8 v. Santa Clara||Top||92-102||Loss||-107||8 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET
Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record. However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU. Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans. When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated. Their 5 wins have all come by double digits. USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here. USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far. All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are. They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points. Not overly impressive. All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th). Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen. Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen. USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team. The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition. USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game. USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. They should roll in this one.
|12-18-18||Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 209||Top||118-126||Loss||-110||6 h 3 m||Show|
ASA play UNDER 209 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – With scoring up in the NBA this season it’s hard to bet an Under with a number as low as this one, but our predictive analytics say there is still value here. Based on current pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers we are predicting a Total here of 199. The Nuggets are without three of their top five scorers this season as Will Barton (16.5PPG), Gary Harris (16.6PPG) and Paul Millsap(13.6PPG) are all injured. That’s a lot of points that need to come from somewhere else. Denver is coming off a very low scoring game against the Raptors (181 total points) and we see that style of play continuing here. The Nuggets are 5th in DEFF ratings allowing just 1.050 points per possession. Dallas is nearly as good, ranking 9th overall in DEFF allowing only 1.074PPP. The Mavs are coming off a horrible defense showing versus the Kings, but prior to that game had allowed an average of just 97PPP their previous four games. Denver is the 4th slowest team in the league while Dallas has slowed considerably in their last five games. In the two meetings on this floor last year these two teams produced totals of 180 and 207, both Under wins, which will be the case again tonight.
|12-17-18||Blazers v. Clippers OVER 217.5||Top||131-127||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
ASA Play OVER 217.5 Portland Trailblazers @ L.A. Clippers, 10:30PM ET – We like to put ourselves on the same side as the oddsmakers which means the Over is the call here. What we mean by that is simple. This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams with the most recent being November 25th. The O/U number on the first meeting was 225 and then 227 just a few weeks ago. Both ended up staying Under the Totals, but the first game finished with 221 total points (enough for a win here) and the second ended with just 204 BUT both teams shot horribly. In the game a few weeks ago, in Portland, the Clippers shot just 42.2% on 90 FG attempts, while the Blazers shot 42 of 97 or 43.5%. The Blazers are 14th in the NBA in team field goal percentage at 45.6% while the Clippers are 9th at 46.6%, so both shot well below their season averages in the last meeting. These two teams are both 10th or higher in offensive efficiency, the Clippers are 9th in pace while the Blazers are 19th. Neither is great defensively either with Portland checking in with the 17th worst defensive efficiency numbers, the Clippers are 19th. The Clippers are coming off a lower scoring game against the Thunder but OKC is one of the slowest paced and best defensive teams in the NBA. Portland isn’t! We are literally getting 10-points of value from the last Total on these two teams’ game AND it’s lower than the league average. The bet here is OVER the Total.
|12-17-18||Arizona State v. Vanderbilt +1||Top||65-81||Win||100||21 h 35 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET
This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team. The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later. ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74. The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining. They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes. It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort. Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas. Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead. They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th. While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest. Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%. They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State. These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch. ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season. We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC. The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play.
|12-16-18||Kings +5.5 v. Mavs||Top||120-113||Win||101||7 h 43 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.
|12-15-18||Baylor v. Arizona -6.5||Top||58-49||Loss||-109||24 h 58 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2
We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it. The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons. They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season. The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule. They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st. That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion. They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive. The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11. Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor. Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season. The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73). Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS). They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th). They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court). Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games. They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally). They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally. The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s. This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits.
|12-15-18||Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder||Top||104-110||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.
|12-15-18||College of Charleston v. VCU UNDER 128.5||Top||83-79||Loss||-109||17 h 57 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 128.5 points - College of Charleston @ VCU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET
We used the UNDER when VCU traveled to Texas recently and cashed easily on that game. We expect to do just that again here. The Rams are a fabulous defensive team ranking 8th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in defensive eFG%. They have held 6 of their 10 opponents under 60 points and two others reached just 61 points. As good as they are defensively, VCU is a poor offensive team. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation (28%) and their eFG% ranks 315th nationally. They win with defense and that’s how they play. Much of their offense comes off turnovers, however Charleston won’t let that happen as they turn the ball over just 14% of the time ranking them 9th nationally. As bad as VCU is from deep, C of C is worse making only 27% of their 3’s ranking them 323rd nationally. We won’t get much scoring from deep here to say the least. As we stated in our write up on the VCU-Texas Under, many feel the Rams are a fast paced team because they press but that is not the case. The rank 190th in adjusted tempo. Charleston loves to play slow as they are 330th in adjusted tempo (out of 351 teams). A slow paced game, with two below average offenses, and solid defenses leads to a low scoring affair. UNDER is the play.
|12-14-18||Green Bay v. Creighton OVER 168.5||Top||65-86||Loss||-109||11 h 2 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 168.5 Points - UW Green Bay @ Creighton, Friday at 9:00 PM ET
These are two of the faster paced teams in the country and neither play defense at a high level. There won’t be much in the way of half court offense in this game. UWGB ranks 9th nationally in adjusted tempo while Creighton ranks 85th. Remember those numbers are based on the tempo they’ve played vs their opponents and many of their opponents like to play slow. Creighton has already played 7 opponents who rank below 200 in adjusted tempo so those teams are trying to slow the game down when the play the Blue Jays. UWGB has played 3 opponents ranked 175 or lower in adjusted tempo. The point being, the numbers, as fast as they are, tend to be skewed as they do play slower paced teams. With both wanting up tempo tonight, this game should have a ton of possessions. Defensively these teams are not very good. Creighton ranks 283rd nationally in eFG% defense while UWGB ranks 223rd in the same category. Offensively, the Jays rank #1 nationally in eFG% and the Phoenix aren’t bad in that area hitting over 51%. Creighton just played Nebraska over the weekend, a team that is great defensively and is slow paced and they totaled 169 points. The Blue Jays have scored at least 87 points in 5 of their last 6 games. UWGB has scored at least 82 points in 7 of their 10 games. The Phoenix have played 2 teams this year ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and those games totaled 192 and 175 points. Creighton has played only one team ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and that game totaled 195. This one should be a shootout and we’re on the OVER.
|12-13-18||Lakers v. Rockets -5||Top||111-126||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.
|12-12-18||Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 217.5||Top||97-113||Win||100||2 h 16 m||Show|
ASA Under 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET – The number our math model has come up on this game is 213 and we agree. This game features the 3rd (Indiana) and 4th (Milwaukee) best defensive efficiency units in the NBA and the number is only slightly lower than the league average. In their last five games both teams have turned up the defensive intensity even more as the Bucks allow just 1.005 points per possession while the Pacers allow .968PPP. The Pacers have allowed an average of just 97.8PPG their last five game, the Bucks have allowed 104.8PPG. Milwaukee has also struggled with their shooting in their last five games as they’ve averaged just 43.9% from the field which is drastically less than the 47.8% season average. Indiana averages less than 100 possessions per game at home this season and they’ll dictate tempo here. The Under is 5-2 the L7 meetings. Bet UNDER!
|12-11-18||Georgia Southern v. UCF -9.5||Top||88-95||Loss||-109||5 h 54 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET
This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern. The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance. That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally. Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability. The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle. Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally. They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8. UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense. Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories. The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier. The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70. For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th. GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets. They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win. The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here. Add another spread win to the ledger tonight. Take UCF.
|12-08-18||Creighton v. Nebraska -7.5||Top||75-94||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET
The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day. The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season. They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year. Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week. It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch. The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots. However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc). After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday. This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot. The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally). Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep. They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game. In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win. Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points. The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year. They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas. This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.
|12-08-18||Wisconsin v. Marquette OVER 137||Top||69-74||Win||100||5 h 31 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 137 Points - Wisconsin @ Marquette, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET
Being in Wisconsin we follow these two teams very closely and feel we are getting some value on the OVER here. Marquette just played Kansas State a week ago and that total was set the same as this one. Based on the numbers, it shouldn’t be the same, this one should be higher. That’s because Wisconsin and KSU are very similar defensively (13th and 5th in defensive efficiency respectively) but the Badgers are far better than the Cats in almost every category. KSU & Marquette scored 154 total points in that game and we expect these two to reach into the 140’s at minimum. Last year’s total in this game was set at 141 and Wisconsin was nowhere near as good offensively and the two totaled 145 points. While Wisconsin still plays slow, they push a bit more than past years and their offensive production is being overlooked here. They rank 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 12th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. And that’s facing a tough schedule having already played 7 top 100 teams (16th most difficult strength of schedule thus far). Marquette’s defense looks improved but they have allowed 70+ points vs every top 100 team they’ve played this year (4). The offense is good just as it was last year with solid shooters all over the court. The only 2 teams to hold Marquette to less than 70 points were Kansas (4th in defensive efficiency) who held them to 68 and UMBC in the first game of the year which was a blowout so Marquette called off the dogs (Won 67-42). We have 2 very good shooting teams in this game and while the defenses will have their moments, we expect both to push into the 70’s in this game so the OVER is the play.
|12-08-18||Houston v. Oklahoma State -2.5||Top||63-53||Loss||-105||4 h 32 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET
Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far. The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70. Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower. This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them. They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT. Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far. They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year. The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th. Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%). Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home. We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home. With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.
|12-06-18||Maryland v. Purdue -6.5||Top||60-62||Loss||-110||21 h 29 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4. The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom. They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5). Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers. They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena. Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits. Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams. Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen. They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th. Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus. The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant. We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games. Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner. Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster. Lay it with Purdue.
|12-05-18||Clippers v. Grizzlies -120||Top||86-96||Win||100||4 h 22 m||Show|
#518 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies ML bet over LA Clippers, 8PM ET - Plenty of reasons to back the Grizzlies here at home with quick revenge (lost to Clips Nov 23rd by 5 in OT) and coming off a loss. Since their loss to the Clippers the Grizzlies have gone on a 1-4 run after a 12-5 start to the season. Expect them to get back on track tonight. Memphis is 7-3 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of +5.2PPG and that schedule includes 5 playoff teams from a year ago. The LA Clippers have won 5 of their last six games and coming off a very satisfying upset in New Orleans on Monday night. The Clippers are 7-6 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those seven wins came against playoff teams from a season ago. L.A. has shot exceptionally well their last five games at 49% but expect that to change versus a Memphis D that allows opponents to hit just 45% of their attempts, 11th best in the league. The Grizzlies also have the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the league which is much better than the Clippers 16th ranked DEFF. Grizzlies rested and looking to improve their 6-0 spread run when playing with two or more days off. Great spot to back Memphis!
|12-05-18||VCU v. Texas UNDER 137||Top||54-53||Win||100||5 h 34 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 137 Points - VCU @ Texas, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET
VCU likes to pressure full court but they are not an overly fast paced team as most tend to think. They rank 143rd nationally in adjusted tempo and Texas ranks 152nd in the same category. So both are near the middle of the pack in college basketball when it comes to tempo. Where both are near the best in college basketball is on the defensive end of the court. The Horns rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency and VCU ranks 19th. The Rams also rank 3rd nationally in eFG% defense and also 3rd nationally at defending the 3-point line. We expect both teams to struggle from deep in this one as neither shoots the 3 well (30% for Texas & 29% for VCU). Not only do these teams struggle to score from deep, neither are very good shooting teams in general with both sitting at 47% for their eFG% which ranks them around 250th nationally. Both have problems at the FT line as well with each hitting only 65% of their freebies. Only one team this season has topped 61 points vs VCU in regulation and that was St Johns who’s one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and 26th nationally in offensive efficiency. Only two teams have topped 70 points this year on Texas and those were Michigan State & North Carolina who are ranked 4th & 6th nationally in offensive efficiency which is far superior offensively to VCU (ranked 239th in offensive efficiency). Both defense are far ahead of the offenses in this one and while this total opened 133, it has jumped to 137 which gives us some value on the UNDER.
|12-04-18||Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -3||Top||80-85||Win||100||20 h 10 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET
The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far. Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena. The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season. They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS. Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site. The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense. They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation). That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally). No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot. The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home. Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden. Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot. We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season. Lay the small number with Oklahoma.
|12-03-18||Rutgers +13 v. Wisconsin||Top||64-69||Win||100||23 h 7 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET
This is a tough spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game. Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season. That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville. We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog. These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected. With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away. On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers. The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents. They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency. This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5). Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction. They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago. The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin. UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory. Rutgers plus the points here.
|12-03-18||Cavs v. Nets OVER 210.5||Top||99-97||Loss||-105||3 h 45 m||Show|
ASA play OVER 210.5 Cavaliers @ Nets, 7:35PM ET - Our math model projects 216 total points and we couldn’t agree more. Let’s not forget what the rule changes have done to the NBA right now as scoring is up dramatically at 221PPG. Last year on this date the average total points scored in the league was 211. Granted these are two of the worst teams in the league but they are also two of the worst defensively. The Cavs are dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions at 1.148 while the Nets are 23rd allowing 1.116PPP. Cleveland is coming off three very low scoring games against OKC, Boston and Toronto but those are three of the best defensive teams in the league. With PG George Hill back in the lineup expect the Cavs scoring numbers to go up. Brooklyn’s home games have averaged nearly 230 total points per contest and we expect both teams to score here. Bet OVER!
|11-30-18||Michigan State -8 v. Rutgers||Top||78-67||Win||100||24 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET
After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville. MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT. Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28. So how did they lose? The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line. Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss. They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday. That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day. It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year. One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns. MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season. Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games. Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively. Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season. Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game. The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits. MSU off a loss is a solid play here.
|11-29-18||Warriors +9 v. Raptors||Top||128-131||Win||100||4 h 2 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!
|11-28-18||Wizards v. Pelicans -6||Top||104-125||Win||100||2 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.
|11-27-18||NC State v. Wisconsin -8||Top||75-79||Loss||-110||26 h 28 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2
NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly. This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd). They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer. Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th. That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win. Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent. They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court. Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier. They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16. Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency. They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games. They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency. Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend. They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball. UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one. As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home. The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home.
|11-25-18||Memphis v. College of Charleston UNDER 138.5||Top||75-78||Loss||-110||6 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON - Under 138.5 Points - Memphis vs College of Charleston, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET
Two bad shooting teams lead to an UNDER play in this game. Memphis ranks 275th nationally in eFG% (46.6%) while Charleston ranks 221st (49%). Worse yet, these are two of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation which will make it very tough to get to this total. The Tigers make just 26% of their 3’s (332nd nationally) and C of C makes only 24% (339th nationally). Memphis likes to play fast if they can however the Cougars are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and when that is the case the slow team usually gets the tempo they want. Since their first two games vs inferior opponents, Charleston has cashed 4 straight UNDERS and they have not topped 128 points in any of those games. Memphis has had a few higher scoring games this year, however those we versus teams that shoot the ball very well (LSU & Oklahoma State) and like to play fast as well. The Tigers most recent game on Friday against Canisius was 71-63 and we look for similar result here. This game is on a neutral site in Orlando and each team will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here which won’t help their shooting woes. Take the UNDER here.
|11-24-18||Colorado -4.5 v. Air Force||Top||93-56||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET
The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip. It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away. In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago. CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on. Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be. However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3. The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado. AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State). Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally). Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots. They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win). Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points). Colorado gets the cover on the road here.
|11-23-18||Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -6.5||Top||65-72||Win||100||22 h 52 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET
These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU. They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog. The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc. ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers. Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter. However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs. They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points. We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game. All of that and UNI still only won by a single point. ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game. Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points. This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago. They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot. Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot. They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games. Lay it as Old Dominion rolls.
|11-20-18||Colorado v. San Diego -4||Top||64-70||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU
This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get. This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU. Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros. That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here. First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup. All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team. The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years. They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts. It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run. While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition. Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points. The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games. They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season. The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago. San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight.
|11-20-18||Blazers v. Knicks UNDER 220.5||Top||118-114||Loss||-105||5 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ NY Knicks, 7:30PM ET - Some solid indicators here with the money and tickets chasing the Over, yet the line dipped 2 full points from the opener. Based on the pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers this game should result in 215 total points. Portland is average in pace of play or 15th in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game. New York is slower yet at 100 possessions per game which will continue to trend lower with Coach Fizdale running the show. Portland is one of the best DEFF teams in the league while the Knicks are one of the worst. The same can be said about the OEFF numbers as Portland is top 10 in the league, Knicks bottom 10. New York shoots under 43% at home this year and averages 106PPG. Portland has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Bucks and won’t be interested in playing an up-and-down game tonight and look to rest starters as much as possible. Last year when these two teams met they combined for 198 and 194 total points. The bet here is UNDER!
|11-19-18||Thunder -2.5 v. Kings||Top||113-117||Loss||-101||6 h 58 m||Show|
ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.
|11-08-18||Bucks v. Warriors -5.5||Top||134-111||Loss||-108||6 h 17 m||Show|
Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland. They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014.
|06-08-18||Warriors -4 v. Cavs||Top||108-85||Win||100||4 h 1 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them. It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*. BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
|06-06-18||Warriors v. Cavs +4||Top||110-102||Loss||-103||5 h 9 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game. The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points.
|06-03-18||Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215||Top||103-122||Loss||-108||7 h 26 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 215, Cleveland @ Golden State, Sunday at 8 PM ET
We cashed with the OVER in game 1 of this series but it took overtime to get there. After watching game 1, tonight we’re siding with the UNDER. The two teams combined to shoot a very solid 47% in game 1 yet the game had to go to OT to cash the OVER. LeBron is playing exceptionally well but can we expect him to get to 50+ again and miss only 13 of 32 shots again tonight? The odds on that happening are not very good. Even with his fantastic effort and 51 points, again, if it doesn’t go to OT it stays UNDER. As good as Golden State can be offensively, it’s actually been their defense that has carried them in these playoffs. They held Houston, one of the top scoring offenses in the NBA, to 92, 94, 86, and 92 points the final four games of the Western Conference Finals. In their 18 playoff games, the Warriors have allowed more than 106 points just 3 times (in regulation). 11 of those 18 have gone UNDER the total. Steve Kerr was not happy with the way this team played defense in game 1 and you can bet that was stressed heading into this match up. Expect GS to play very well on the defensive end tonight. Cleveland’s defense was poor during the regular season but they’ve actually played quite well on that end of the court in the post season. Their final 3 games vs Boston heading into the NBA Finals they limited the Celtics to 96, 99, and 79 points. They’ve limited their opponents to 110 points or fewer in 18 of their 19 playoff games (in regulation). We look for Cleveland to try and slow this pace tonight which gives them the best chance of pulling off the upset. Both defenses will play better tonight and we like the UNDER in this game.
|05-31-18||Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214||Top||114-124||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
We will play on 10-Star OVER 215 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Thursday, May 31st – Cleveland looked better defensively in the Eastern Conference Playoffs but the fact of the matter is they played two average offenses in the Pacers and Celtics. Now they face one of the best offensive units in the NBA which averaged 1.137 point per possession in the regular season, 3rd best in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 109PPG in the post season and that came against three top 14 defensive efficiency units, two of which, Houston and San Antonio, were top 6. Now Golden State goes up against a Cavs D that was 29th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.120PPP. Cleveland had some lower scoring games against the Pacers and Celtics but those are two of the 8 slowest paced teams in the NBA. Against a similar team to the Warriors, Toronto, the Cavs allowed 112, 110, 103 and 93 points with three of the four games ending with 221 or more total points. After a couple low scoring grinders against the Rockets we expect the Warriors offense to explode tonight in Game 1. Golden State home games averaged 217 total points this season while Cleveland road contests averaged 216PPG. Based on league averages, pace of play, eFG percentages, etc…etc…this game should end with 220 or more points. The Warriors have scored 116 or more points against the Cavs in 6 of the last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER the total.
|05-28-18||Warriors v. Rockets +6.5||Top||101-92||Loss||-105||10 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points.
|05-27-18||Cavs v. Celtics -125||Top||87-79||Loss||-125||10 h 28 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (ML) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The home team has clearly had the big advantage in this series and have been the better team in every game. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-25 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-19 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 10-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes three wins over this same Cavs team by 25, 13 and 13 points respectively. As far as home teams in elimination games in the NBA, going back to 2005, the home team has won over 70% of the time. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. Cleveland has shot under 42% in two of the three games in Boston which is understandable considering the Celtics had the 2nd best shooting percentage D in the NBA this season. Boston was also one of the best in the league when it came to defensive efficiency ratings. The public is all over LeBron and the Cavs which makes sense but the money is all over Boston. Even though LBJ will get every call to man in this game we like the resolve of the young Celtics and expect a win by the home team.
|05-26-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212||Top||86-115||Loss||-110||30 h 17 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 212.5 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, Game 6, 9PM ET - With the number creeping this low here we have to step in with a VALUE Over bet on Game 6. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. In Games 4 & 5 these two teams shot horribly and the games ended with just 187 and 192 Total points. The big difference for this game could be injuries as the Warriors could get Andre Iguodala back for this game and the plus/minus differential with him on the floor for GST is drastic. Houston will more than likely be without Chris Paul for this game which isn’t as big a deal offensively but is defensively. Paul has been outstanding defensively in this series. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the eight meetings this season. The value on this number is too good to ignore. In Game 4 at home these two teams had a total of 224. The Warriors have had 14 home games this season where Vegas posted a Total of 215 or lower on them and in nine of those the Warriors had a key player out. Don’t forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year was 212PPG and this game features the two best offenses in the league. BET OVER!
|05-24-18||Warriors -1 v. Rockets||Top||94-98||Loss||-105||28 h 11 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston.
|05-23-18||Cavs v. Celtics +1||Top||83-96||Win||100||27 h 10 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here.
|05-22-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 223.5||Top||95-92||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 224 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - With the number creeping a little lower here we'll step in with an Over bet on Game 4. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. Expect the Rockets to get back to somewhere in the 46% or 51% they shot in the first two games of the series which is much closer to their season average of 46%. The Rockets attempted nearly 42 three's per game in the regular season and will get their attempts up here in this do-or-die situation. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the six meetings this season. Expect more of the same tonight. BET OVER!
|05-21-18||Celtics +7 v. Cavs||Top||102-111||Loss||-105||6 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday.
|05-20-18||Rockets +8 v. Warriors||Top||85-126||Loss||-108||8 h 16 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close.
|05-19-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6||Top||86-116||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points.
|05-16-18||Warriors v. Rockets +1||Top||105-127||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7 less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers. Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss.
|05-15-18||Cavs v. Celtics OVER 203.5||Top||94-107||Loss||-109||6 h 36 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 203.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics, Tuesday 8:30PM ET Game 2 - First off I want to start by saying this: I am not, nor ever been a conspiracy theory guy when it comes to NBA games, but tonight I'm fairly certain LeBron is going to get a ton of calls in his favor. I expect James to make a concentrated effort to get to the hole in Game 2 and he'll be rewarded with calls that he didn't get in Game 1. In the opener the Cavs defense was exactly what we expected it to be but we didn't see their offense struggling to top 20 points in three of the four quarters. The Cavs shot just 36% as a team and were just 4 of 26 from beyond the arc (15.4%). That's significantly lower than their season averages of 36.8% overall on 32 attempts per game which are both top 8 in the NBA. Cleveland put up just 83 points in the opener but had they shot their season averages they would have scored 24 more points from beyond the 3-point line alone. That's enough points to push this game Over the total. When the Cavs played on the road this year those games averaged 219PPG. When Boston was at home those contests averaged 205PPG. We see Boston putting up great offensive numbers again tonight as the Cavs defense (29th in DEFF) hasn't changed. Don't forget the average field goal attempts per game in the NBA this season was 172 and the average points scored was just under 213PPG. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 170 FG attempts so the pace of play was there, but the Cavs just couldn't make shots. That changes tonight and while I won't bet a bad line tonight and trust Cleveland, I will invest in the OVER.
|05-14-18||Warriors v. Rockets -110||Top||119-106||Loss||-110||6 h 37 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (Moneyline bet) -110 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - Tough to go against the Champs in any setting, especially considering they are not underdogs very often, but we'll make an exception tonight in Game 1. We've made a prediction at the start of the Playoffs that Houston would win it all this year and for them to do that they must win Game 1 at home. The Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best home defensive efficiency numbers. The addition of Chris Paul gives them a another super-star caliber player that can take over a game if James Harden struggles as he did a year ago in big playoff moments. Capela has been a defensive force in the playoffs and Eric Gordon scored 20PPG during the regular season versus the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors are loaded and have incredible road numbers and the Hamptons 5 lineup but this is the one spot to fade them. Houston is 25-2 SU their last 27 at home while Golden State is just 10-11 SU their last 21 on the road, 2-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 1 at home!
|05-13-18||Cavs v. Celtics +2||Top||83-108||Win||100||4 h 17 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1.
|05-09-18||76ers v. Celtics +1||Top||112-114||Win||101||3 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk. Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win!
|05-08-18||Jazz v. Rockets OVER 207.5||Top||102-112||Win||100||3 h 4 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 207.5 Game 5 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Tuesday, 8PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. Game 2 saw these two teams combined for 224 (nice over win for us). Games 3 & 4 finished with 205 and 187 total points. After a very low scoring Game 4, with poor shooting by both teams expect a return to the normal tonight. In the eight meetings this season between these two teams, the Rockets have scored 137, 112, 120, 96, 110, 108, 113 and 100 points. In Game 4 the Rockets shot just 42% overall and 26% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages of 45.8% and 36.2%. The Jazz shot even worse in G4 as they hit just 38.6% from the field and 24% from the 3-point line. Three of the four games in this series have stayed Under the Total but they've been near the league average for pace of play which should equate to 213 Total points. The Jazz road games has averaged 207 total per game in the regular season while the Rockets home games have averaged 218 Total points. The Over has now cashed in 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Bet OVER!
|05-05-18||Raptors v. Cavs OVER 216||Top||103-105||Loss||-104||27 h 56 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 216 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Saturday, 8:35PM ET - Neither team shot especially well in Game 1 yet they still managed 210 total points in regulation. At the half of that game they had 117 which put them on pace for 234 total points. They were still scoring in the 3rd when they combined for 52 points. In the fourth though Toronto missed 11 straight field goals to end the game. In Game 2 LeBron went off in the 3rd quarter which propelled the Cavs to a 128-110 win. Both teams shot ridiculously well at 60% for Cleveland and 54% for Toronto and there are indicators that success could continue here. The Over has now cashed in 4 of the last five meetings (232, 261, 218, 225, 238) and the only game that stayed Under, ended with 218 total points (Total was 223). The Raptors are completely mind-(fill in blank) by the Cavs and have no answer for LeBron. James will continue to bully the Raptors and it will only get worse in Cleveland before it gets any better. Expect a high scoring game here. Toronto's offense was 2nd in terms of offensive efficiency this season during the regular season and face a Cavs defense that was 29th in defensive efficiency.
|05-04-18||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 208.5||Top||113-92||Loss||-110||8 h 22 m||Show|
PLAY ON: OVER 208.5 Game 3 Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz , Fri, 10:30PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. Game 2 saw these two teams combined for 224 (nice over win for us). In the six meetings this season between these two teams, the Rockets have scored 137, 112, 120, 96, 110 and 108. After a horrible shooting performance in Game 2 you can bet the Rockets find a rhythm here. Houston shot just 40% overall and a pitiful 27% from beyond the arc in the last game. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages of 45.8% and 36.2%. Granted the Jazz shot better than their season averages but it's safe to say we could see a similar performance back at home in Game 3. In the playoffs the Jazz and their opponents have scored more than tonight's total in 6 of eight games. Utah had the best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season at 1.039 points per possession. In the playoffs they are giving up 1.050PPP. Houston was the #1 offensive efficiency offense in the NBA this season at 1.147PPP and they're even better yet in the post-season at 1.158PPP. In the series against OKC the Jazz totaled 217 and 209 total points in the first two home games of that series. Houston went to Minnesota and they combined for 226 and 219 total points. In this situation the bet here is OVER!
|05-04-18||Warriors v. Pelicans +5||Top||100-119||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points!
|05-03-18||76ers v. Celtics OVER 206||Top||103-108||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Game 2 - Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 8:35PM ET - We like the value with an OVER wager on Game 2. Philly was 4th during the regular season in pace of play at 99.8 possessions per game and have played faster yet in the post-season at 100.5 possessions per game. Philadelphia averaged 110PPG in the reg ssn and are at 114PPG in the PO's. The 76ers offensive efficiency numbers are better in the post season at 1.136 points per possession than they were in the regular season. Boston has seen a drop in their defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they went from allowing 1.039 points per possession (reg ssn) to 1.086PPP in the playoffs. In Game 1 the 76ers went just 5 of 26 (19%) from beyond the arc which is clearly an aberration. On the year the 76ers averaged 30 3-point attempts per game and made 37% of them. Twelve of the Sixers deep attempts were what we would consider 'wide open' too and they missed all of them. Yes, part of the equation is that Boston's defense was great, but the law of averages even out here which means more points for Philly. The 76ers underperformed its expected field-goal percentage based on shot location and defender proximity by a huge margin so look for better results here from them. Boston shot extremely well from beyond the arc but they were also the second best 3-point shooting team in the regular season behind only Golden State. The Over has now cashed in 70% or 7 of the last ten clashes in Boston. BET OVER!
|05-02-18||Jazz v. Rockets OVER 205||Top||116-108||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets, Weds, 8PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. In the three meetings this season between these two teams on this court, the Rockets have scored 110, 120 and 137 points. In the playoffs the Jazz and their opponents have scored more than tonight's total in 5 of seven games. Utah had the best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season at 1.039 points per possession. In the playoffs they are giving up 1.050PPP. Houston was the #1 offensive efficiency offense in the NBA this season at 1.147PPP and they're even better yet in the post-season at 1.158PPP. In home games this season the Rockets have scored 204 or more points in 35 of 45 games. The Rockets and their opponents averaged 218.2PPG this season at home. Utah and their foes averaged 206.9PPG this season when on the road. Utah will play better than they did in the opener and Houston is going to get to 114+. The bet here is OVER!
|05-01-18||Cavs v. Raptors -6.5||Top||113-112||Loss||-107||10 h 59 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto. The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1.
|04-30-18||76ers v. Celtics OVER 205||Top||101-117||Win||100||5 h 30 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - This Total number has dropped as many as 5-points as some Books from the opening line and we like the value with an OVER wager here. When these two teams faced off last in Beantown the oddsmakers posted a Total of 203 on that game which is slightly lower than tonight's number. We know what the young 76ers will want to do here and that's push the ball in transition, force the Celtics to play fast and wear out their starters. Philly was 4th during the regulars season in pace of play at 99.8 possessions per game and have played faster yet in the post-season at 100.5 possessions per game. Philadelphia averaged 110PPG in the reg ssn and are at 114PPG in the PO's. The 76ers offensive efficiency numbers are better in the post season at 1.136 points per possession than they were in the regular season. The Bucks had great success shooting the ball against Boston in the opening series which is alarming for Celtics supporters. Milwaukee shot 50% as a team against the C's defense that held opponents to just 44% during the regular season. That ties into Boston's drop in defensive efficiency numbers as they went from allowing 1.039 points per possession (reg ssn) to 1.086PPP in the playoffs. Season averages and statistics support a game in the 218 range here. BET OVER!
|04-28-18||Pelicans +9 v. Warriors||Top||101-123||Loss||-101||10 h 33 m||Show|
PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs. Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points