|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5||Top||114-110||Loss||-100||31 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: Under 211.5 Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Thursday 8PM ET – Way too many unknowns from a psychological aspect to wager on a Side of this contest but the Under still offers value. The scenario surrounding KD has the Warriors organization, and the entire NBA in flux right now, and we’re not sure of the impact it has on the current Warrior players. On the other side we have a Raptors team that has never “gotten over the hump” in a game of this magnitude and even though Kawhi is clearly the best player on the planet, he still needs support from his teammates. Three of the five games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points and the two most recent game finished with just 197 total points and 211. In Game 4 of this series we saw the combined total field goals attempts dip to just for just 164 and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting so both numbers were significantly lower than ‘average’. In Game 5 the two teams combined for 167 field goal attempts and 74 of those were 3-pointers, which is 10 more than league average. Golden State knocked down 20 of 42 3-pointers or 47.6% which is ridiculous (made 45 total in the previous 4 games) while Toronto was just 8 of 32 from downtown. Golden State won’t make as many tonight and even if Toronto makes a few more it won’t equate to enough points to go Over the number. The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 105PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER!
|06-10-19||Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 215||Top||106-105||Win||100||5 h 47 m||Show|
ASA play on: Under 215 Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors, Monday 8PM ET – Every logical approach to this game screams betting the Warriors and the statistical support is off the charts BUT my eyes are telling me the Raptors are just playing better right now and it’s not as close as the number suggest. So, we’re staying away from a side wager on this game and will bet Under the total. Three of the four games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points which would win here, and the most recent game finished with just 197 total points. Tonight’s contest has all the makings of another game with less than 200 total points. The last time out these two teams combined for just 164 total field goal attempts and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting. The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44.2%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 104.7PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. The return of KD is also significant for the Warriors defensively as they can defend the arc better which has been an Achilles heel for them this series. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER!
|06-07-19||Raptors v. Warriors -4.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-107||5 h 49 m||Show|
ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.
|06-05-19||Raptors +4.5 v. Warriors||Top||123-109||Win||100||7 h 39 m||Show|
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||109-104||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.
|05-30-19||Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors||Top||109-118||Loss||-107||7 h 31 m||Show|
ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.
|05-25-19||Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors||Top||94-100||Loss||-110||11 h 32 m||Show|
Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks -7||Top||105-99||Loss||-107||10 h 42 m||Show|
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.
|05-21-19||Bucks -3 v. Raptors||Top||102-120||Loss||-105||6 h 28 m||Show|
ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET
We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!
|05-20-19||Warriors v. Blazers +3||Top||119-117||Win||100||6 h 35 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.
|05-18-19||Warriors v. Blazers -125||Top||110-99||Loss||-125||9 h 8 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 3 Saturday – Fatigue was clearly a factor in Game 1 of this series as the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver with four games played in the higher altitude. In Game 2 they had a little more rest and were off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so the effort and attitude was drastically better. Portland led by 15 at halftime and had a legitimate chance to steal a road win Golden State before falling short late. Based on the money and tickets being bet on this game its clear the public is backing Golden State as a dog in Game 3 but we won’t fall for the trap. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-11 SU record, 14-4 their last eighteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. Back at home expect another improvement in Game 3. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. The Warriors had some very good road differentials and efficiency numbers but that was with KD and now they are just 4-6 ATS their last ten on the road. Portland is going to win this home game.
|05-17-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6.5||Top||103-125||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –
The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds. The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.
|05-16-19||Blazers +7 v. Warriors||Top||111-114||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.
|05-15-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6||Top||100-108||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.
|05-14-19||Blazers v. Warriors OVER 220.5||Top||94-116||Loss||-109||6 h 47 m||Show|
ASA’s 10* play on: OVER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors, Game 1 Tuesday 9PM ET – The injuries to the Warriors has a dramatic impact on this line and what we expect Golden State’s game plan to be going into this series. As we saw in the clinching win over the Rockets, the Warriors reverted back to the “Klay and Steph” show which saw them play fast and attempt a ton of 3’s. Golden State chucked 38 three pointers in the game which was four more than their league average of 34. The Warriors were the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season, averaged 1.160 points per possession and 117.7PPG. This Golden State team was not as good defensively as past editions as they finished the season ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Portland is coming off a touch series with a slower paced Nuggets team (4th slowest in paced during the regular season) and will enjoy a faster paced tempo here. Portland was the 3rd most efficient offensive in the NBA during the regular season averaging 1.146 points per possession and 114.7PPG. The Blazers defense ranked outside the top half of the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.105PPP. Neither team does well defending the 3-pointer (13th and 15th) and both shoot it well (8th and 3rd). During the regular season the oddsmakers posted totals of 218.5 (Nov 23rd), 227, 226 and most recently 235 on Feb 13th. In other words, the most recent meeting between these two teams had a total of 235 and now we have a number of 220.5, which oh-by-the-way, is less than the league average of total points scored per game during the regular season. It all adds up to a higher scoring game. BET OVER!
|05-12-19||Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets||Top||100-96||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.
|05-09-19||Raptors v. 76ers +2.5||Top||101-112||Win||100||6 h 5 m||Show|
ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.
|05-08-19||Celtics v. Bucks OVER 220||Top||91-116||Loss||-110||5 h 45 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER 220.5 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Bucks had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series and only managed 90 points. Then in Games 2 and 3 they put up 123 points, then followed up with 113 in Game 4. Based on the pace of play numbers from Game 4 the total points scored should have been much higher than the 214 that was put up. Boston and Milwaukee combined for 190 field goal attempts (league average 178 this season) but both had a terrible night from beyond the arc (Under 23% each) so the game finished with a relatively low total. Milwaukee is going to score in this game as they have at home in the post season. In four home contests the Bucks have put up 120 or more points in 3 of four games. Milwaukee wants to play fast as evidenced by their 104 possessions per game at home this season which is tops in the NBA. That faster pace has led to the Bucks being the highest scoring team in the league at home with a 119.9PPG average. Boston wasn’t particularly fast paced on the road this season, but they were 15th (average) in points scored on the road at 110.7PPG. The Over has cashed 17 of the last 24 meetings and we expect that trend to continue here.
|05-07-19||Blazers +5 v. Nuggets||Top||98-124||Loss||-110||8 h 17 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!
|05-05-19||Raptors v. 76ers -2||Top||101-96||Loss||-109||6 h 37 m||Show|
ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!
|05-04-19||Warriors v. Rockets -3.5||Top||121-126||Win||102||11 h 6 m||Show|
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.
|05-03-19||Bucks v. Celtics -2||Top||123-116||Loss||-100||7 h 33 m||Show|
ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1. Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3.
|05-02-19||Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 217||Top||95-116||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER 217 Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Thursday 8PM ET – We are now getting 6 full points of value on this Over/Under compared to the first game of this series which opened at 223. In the first two games of this series these two teams combined for just 203 and 183 total points which has forced the oddmakers hand tonight. The pace of play and field goal attempts have been very low in the first two games but now that the venue has changed, we expect the 76ers to dictate the pace of play and force Toronto into a faster game. Philly was the 8th fastest paced team in the league at home this year at 101.6 possessions per game. When playing at home this season the 76ers games averaged 229 total points per contest. Toronto shot 47% on the road this season and averaged 113.2PPG while giving up 108.2PPG for an average of 221PPG. In the two regular season meetings on this court these two combined for 226 and 227 total points and the Over has cashed 7 of the last nine meetings in Philadelphia. The Sixers set the tempo tonight the Raptors are forced to play with them. BET OVER!
|05-01-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 220||Top||97-90||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 220 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – First off, the oddsmaker have adjusted this number up compared to Game 1 so we’ve picked up a few points of value. When we break down Game 1 we see a couple glaring reasons to bet Under in Game 2. The two teams combined to attempt just 160 field goals in the game which is drastically lower than the league average of 178, which typically produces 222 total points per game. Based on the law of averages and statistical analysis it’s logical to assume that 18 less field goal attempts per game is going to produce a total far less than the 2.5-points difference of tonight’s total compared to league average (222 vs 219.5). So why did Game #1 go so far Over the total? Both teams shot remarkably well with the Blazers making 51.9% of their FG attempts and 41.4% of their 3-point attempts. Those numbers are much higher than their season average of 46.7% and 36.2%. Denver also had a very good shooting night by making 50.6% of their attempts from the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc. Again, both numbers are quite a bit higher than their season average of 46.6% and 35.2%. Denver home games this season averaged 217 total points per game while Portland’s road contests averaged 222. The major factor in this Under wager is the pace of play as the Blazers were the 19th slowest in the NBA on the road this season at 99.4 possessions per game. Denver is literally one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at home (27th) at just 97.3 possessions per game. With both teams preferring to play slower, and both shooting a more normal percentage, it will translate to an easy Under. Based on our highly successful Math Model we project 211 total points being scored tonight.
|04-30-19||Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors||Top||109-115||Loss||-106||29 h 41 m||Show|
ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points.
|04-30-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||Top||102-123||Loss||-105||26 h 8 m||Show|
ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points.
|04-29-19||Blazers +4 v. Nuggets||Top||113-121||Loss||-100||12 h 47 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points!
|04-28-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||Top||112-90||Win||100||4 h 49 m||Show|
ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points!
|04-27-19||76ers v. Raptors -6||Top||95-108||Win||100||28 h 43 m||Show|
ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1.
|04-26-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233.5||Top||129-110||Loss||-110||14 h 2 m||Show|
ASA play on UNDER 233.5 Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers, 10PM ET Friday – These two teams combined for a monster total in the last game with 250 total points with the Clippers winning 129-121. There were some abnormal numbers in that game including the Clippers making over 54% of their field goal attempts from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc. On the season the Clippers were a solid shooting team at 47.1% but clearly their performance in the last game was above and beyond. Another factor to consider is this, the Warriors have the 3rd best field goal percentage D in the NBA. The same scenario played out in Game 3 of this series (in Los Angeles) when the Warriors shot a ridiculous 54.8% overall and 42.9% from the 3-point line. If the Warriors shot a more ‘normal’ percentage in that game, it has no chance to go Over the number. So, based on true statistics the two games in L.A. of this series should have both been Unders. The Warriors play slower on the road than they do at home this season and when they face good teams (winning percentage above .600) they have stayed below the total in 7 of their last nine games. Looking at the regular season meetings in L.A. and the two playoff games it certainly could be four straight Unders. The first clash went Over the total, but the two teams combined for 25-points in the OT session or that game stays Under. In January, on this court they totaled 206 and then the two playoff games with the one Over barely getting there with the Warriors shooting an unrealistic percentage. Easy call on the UNDER here!
|04-25-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3||Top||103-120||Win||100||7 h 39 m||Show|
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more.
|04-24-19||Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets||Top||93-100||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points.
|04-23-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5||Top||90-108||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET – San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits.
|04-22-19||Bucks v. Pistons OVER 219.5||Top||127-104||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
ASA play OVER 219.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons, Game 4 Monday – The Bucks have flexed their muscle in this series and will look to move on to a series against the Celtics as soon as possible. Milwaukee has scored 121, 120 and 119 in the three games of this series. In 7 of 12 quarters of this series the Bucks have scored 30+ points, including 3 of four in Game 3 and the only reason they didn’t score 30 in the 4th quarter is because they called off the dogs. Our math model predicts the Bucks getting to 120 again here and the Pistons topping 100. Detroit has scored 86, 99 and then 103 in the three games of this first round. The Pistons didn’t have leading score Blake Griffin for the first two games and he had an immediate impact in Game 3 with 27-points. The pace of play numbers also indicates a trend to a faster paced game as they two teams have attempted 182, 189 and 182 field goals in the three games of the series. Remember the league average for field goal attempts per game is 178. Four of the last five in this series has gone Over the total. The league average for total points scored per game during the regular season was 222 so this game essentially has to be ‘average’ to go Over the number. BET OVER!
|04-21-19||Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 223||Top||111-98||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
ASA play on UNDER 223 Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30PM ET – This series is heating up and the rivalry between Westbrook and Lillard is blossoming into a classic one. In the first two games of this series the Thunder failed to reach 100 points but they ‘exploded’ for 120 in Game 3 back at home. OKC had shot 10 of 61 from beyond the arc in the first two games but then hit 15 of 29 in Game 3. Expect a return to normal today for the Thunder who shoot 45.3% at home this year, 36.1% from beyond the 3-point line. In Game 1 of this series these two teams attempted 179 total field goals. In Game 2 that number dipped to 176 and in Game 3 they combined for just 160 FG attempts. That trend will continue today but we don’t expect both teams to shoot as well as they did in Game 3 (Portland 47%, OKC 48%). Another abnormality was Game 3’s third quarter when these two teams combined for 80 total points. The Blazers got a huge game from Damian Lillard in Game 3 when he went off in the third quarter for 25-points. Portland doesn’t mind playing slower on the road as they ranked 19th in the league in pace of play when away from home. With less field goals attempts, a slower pace, much tighter defense and not as good shooting this game should stay well below the total.
|04-20-19||Rockets v. Jazz -2.5||Top||104-101||Loss||-109||31 h 49 m||Show|
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win!
|04-18-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -4||Top||108-118||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it.
|04-17-19||Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics||Top||91-99||Loss||-102||8 h 13 m||Show|
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET – San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win.
|04-14-19||Pistons v. Bucks -12.5||Top||86-121||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late.
|04-13-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5||Top||101-96||Loss||-107||30 h 57 m||Show|
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version. San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts.
|04-10-19||Kings v. Blazers -8||Top||131-136||Loss||-109||9 h 3 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points!
|04-09-19||Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5||Top||108-118||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers. The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight.
|04-09-19||Knicks v. Bulls OVER 216.5||Top||96-86||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER 216.5 NY Knicks @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – There won’t be much defense played in this game so each team should put up points in a rematch from April 1st. These two teams squared off just a few days ago and put up 218 total points in Madison Square Garden. The Bulls shot over 44% as a team while the Knicks hit 50%. That’s not a surprise given just how bad both franchises have been on the defensive end of the court this season. Both allow over 1.13 points per possession which ranks them 25th (Bulls) and 27th (Knicks) in defensive efficiency rankings. The Bulls have been especially bad their last five games by allowing 1.195PPP and 117 points per game. The Knicks have had some poor offensive showings in their last ten games but 8 of their last ten have come against playoff caliber teams. When the Bulls have played at home this season their games have averaged just under 218PPG while the Knicks on the road have averaged just over 218PPG. These two teams have locked up their positioning for the lottery so there is no reason for them to not to try tonight, like they have done for the second half of the season. The Bulls have gone Over the number in 6 straight games when hosting a bad team like the Knicks with a winning percentage less than .400 on the road. Both teams are trending a little slower than their season pace but we feel there will still be enough opportunities here to get both teams in the 110 range. Bet OVER!
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia -115||Top||77-85||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -115 on the money line over Texas Tech, Monday at 9:20 PM ET
You’ve heard us mention this before but the value here is absolutely on UVA. We realize Tech is on a great run but our numbers had this game at -3.5 in favor of Virginia. If we play this on the money line that a full possession+ of value. Here’s one way to look at it. In the Elite 8 Texas Tech was a 5-point underdog vs Gonzaga and on Saturday they were a 2.5 point dog vs Michigan State. Now UVA is only laying 1 to 1.5 points? The Cavs are better than both of the previous teams we mentioned in our power ratings and others (Ken Pom). But because UVA has had some tight wins and Tech has now covered 8 of their last 9 games and the oddsmakers almost have no choice but to set this lower than it should be. Even with the number off in favor of Virginia, almost 60% of the bets have come in on Tech because most bettors remember what they see most recently. The fact is the Cavs have been the better team the entire season. Much is made of Tech’s defense, which is great (#1 in efficiency), but let’s not pretend they have a huge edge on that side of the court vs Virginia. The Cavs defense ranks 5th in efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense, and 3rd in 3 point FG% defense. So on that end, these teams are very close in our opinion. Offensively, however, Virginia has a fairly significant season long edge. They rank 3rd in offensive efficiency (Tech is 28th), 19th in eFG% (Tech is 55th) and 9th in 3 point FG% (Tech is 66th). A key situation that’s not being talked about very much is the health of the Red Raiders Tariq Owens. This 6’10 shot blocker is one of the top interior defenders in the nation and he is nowhere close to 100%. He was in a boot on Sunday and while we expect him to try and play, we can’t imagine he’ll be all that effective. If he’s not in the game much tonight, that’s a huge edge to the Cavaliers. Again, this comes back to where the number should be and where it is. This number, as we said above, is set at Virginia -1 or -1.5. We are playing this one on the money line at -120 (some are at -125). That would be our recommendation as we simply need Virginia to win.
|04-07-19||Magic v. Celtics -4.5||Top||116-108||Loss||-109||9 h 3 m||Show|
ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league. Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points!
|04-06-19||Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2.5||Top||61-51||Loss||-105||28 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET
We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans. Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so. However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State. We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here. If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite. So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans. Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency). However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke. We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense. We do give MSU a decent edge offensively. They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%. The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga. The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part. They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%. Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed. We expect MSU to shoot better in this game. Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here. They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games. We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities. While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game. The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005. While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech. Those teams usually don’t move on. In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever. Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999). We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game. Take the Spartans on Saturday.
|04-06-19||Nets +7 v. Bucks||Top||133-128||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Milwaukee Bucks, 5PM ET – The thought process for this game is pretty straight forward. The Bucks literally have nothing left to play for with the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs. The Nets control their own destiny but need to win to get a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We wouldn’t make this bet if we still didn’t have value in the number though and based on these teams recent meeting, we get it here. The Bucks were just favored by -1.5 points in Brooklyn earlier this week so the natural swing would have them -9 or -10 in this game. The line opened -8.5-points but dropped immediately to where it is now. That tells us one HUGE factor in this game. MVP Giannis won’t play. We know he wants too but the Bucks would be stupid to play him here, especially with a tender ankle. Milwaukee is already short handed with several starters and key contributors out with injuries so covering any kind of spread is going to be tough. Plus, the Bucks are off a big come from behind road win in Philly AND just beat this Nets team earlier in the week. Brooklyn in the way more desperate team here and worth a bet.
|04-05-19||Raptors v. Hornets +5.5||Top||111-113||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
ASA play on: @Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – The Bucks win last night have assured Milwaukee the best record in the East and overall NBA so the Raptors main concern is being healthy going into the post season. Charlotte still has an outside shot at making the playoffs but essentially needs to win out and get help from other teams. These same two teams just met a few weeks ago and the Raptors were favored by 11.5 points at home. The Hornets won that game 115-114. As you can see the line adjustment here by the oddsmakers is too great. Based on that last game the Hornets should be a slight favorite here. Revenge doesn’t work here for Toronto as it’s a meaningless game to them. Charlotte has been very good at home this year with a 24-15 SU record and a home differential of +4PPG. The Hornets have won and covered two straight as a home dog as they recently beat Boston at home as a 4-point dog and San Antonio as a 4-point dog. Charlotte is also 4-1 SU at home their last five games and the one loss was by 4-points to Philly. Toronto has won 5 straight games, so their sense of urgency is not the same as it is for Charlotte. The value in the line is key here along with the team that is more desperate. Grab the points!
|04-04-19||Cavs v. Kings OVER 228||Top||104-117||Loss||-108||11 h 17 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER 228 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – These two teams clearly have nothing left to play for so expect a lack of effort on the defensive end of the court tonight. That means plenty of good opportunities on the offensive end of the court and lots of scoring here. These two teams have not been good defensively to begin with as the Kings rank 19th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Cavs are dead last. If we look at the last five games the Kings are allowing 1.233 points per possession (29th) while the Cavs are giving up 1.242PPP which is last. Obviously, this proves our point on how these defenses are trending with nothing to play for. Sacramento is allowing over 119PPG their last five games; the Cavs are giving up 122.6PPG. On the season the Cavs average 87.7 field goal attempts per game but in their last three games they are averaging 94 attempts per game which leads to more scoring here, especially against a Kings D that lacks motivation. Sacramento just played three games against playoff teams from the West but prior to that had played two games against teams similar to the Cavs (Pelicans, Mavericks) and those games finished with 239 and 246 total points. Expect a fast-paced game with plenty of great shot opportunities which leads to an EASY OVER!
|04-04-19||Lipscomb +1.5 v. Texas||Top||66-81||Loss||-105||24 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Lipscomb +1.5 over Texas, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
From a straight value perspective, Lipscomb is definitely worth a look here. They are +1.5 in this game vs Texas. For comparison’s sake, the Longhorns were +1.5 on Tuesday when they faced TCU here at Madison Square Garden. Looking at power ratings (Ken Pom) Lipscomb is actually rated as a better team than TCU (#39 while TCU is #43). That tells us this number should be similar to Tuesday’s TCU – Texas game but it’s a full 3-point difference. We were on Texas on Tuesday as we felt the situation was perfect. The Horns were in revenge mode vs their Big 12 and in state rival after losing at home to TCU just a few weeks earlier in their regular season finale. The loss by the Horns pretty much eliminated them from any at large bid consideration for the NCAA. That gave UT some major motivation on Tuesday and they handled TCU winning by 14. The Frogs shot as poorly as they have in a long time making only 28% of their shots and just 19% from beyond the arc. While this is now the NIT Championship game, don’t be surprised if Texas is a bit flat vs no-name Lipscomb. The Horns had their big game on Tuesday. On the other hand, this is a program changing game for Lipscomb. They have proven more than worthy to be here winning ALL of their NIT games on the road (@ Davidson, @ UNC Greensboro, and @ NC State). Texas played all of their NIT games at home until Tuesday’s neutral court match up with TCU. Speaking of TCU, on a sidenote this Lipscomb team beat TCU by 9 on the road earlier this year. Back to this game…We don’t expect the Longhorns to shut down Lipscomb’s offense as they did with TCU a few days ago. That’s because the Bisons shoot well from every level (21st nationally in eFG%) and make nearly 76% of their FT’s as well. Defensively the Bisons are very good at defending the 3 point line (allowing 32% which is 47th nationally) which is a good match up for them here as Texas shoot a lot of 3’s. The Horns pick up almost 37% of their points from beyond the arc which is 61st most nationally. If they struggle from 3, which they could here vs this defense, they are in trouble. Lipscomb is a veteran team with 5 upperclassmen in the starting line up. They went to the NCAA last year and lost in UNC. These upperclassmen have been very successful with a 72-30 record over the last 3 seasons. Also keep in mind, this team was favored by 6-points in the Atlantic Sun Championship game but lost to Liberty. That’s the same Liberty team that beat Mississippi State in round one of the Big Dance and then gave Va Tech all they could handle in the round of 32. Taking on a below .500 Big 12 team (in conference play) in a potential letdown spot is worth a long look. We like Lipscomb to win the NIT Championship.
|04-03-19||76ers v. Hawks UNDER 238.5||Top||122-130||Loss||-110||8 h 15 m||Show|
ASA UNDER 238 Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET – At first glance you might want to be the Over here, but the numbers support Under the total. These two teams just met in Philly and combined for 256 total points so Over bettors will want to go that route. The Sixers are without Embiid here and potentially Jimmy Butler too. Those two players combined for 52 points in the most recent meeting. That’s a ton of points the 76ers will have to replace on the offensive end of the court. Atlanta is coming off a game in San Antonio last night which is significant as the Hawks games average just 224 total points per game when Atlanta is not rested. That’s dramatically lower than their season average of 231 total points per game. The Hawks offense has slowed in their last three games as they’ve scored 111, 122 (in regulation vs. the Bucks) and 98 points respectively. The 76ers are essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the East so It’s more important to get rest and stay healthy which means different rotations and unfamiliar lineups together on the floor. That adds up to less scoring. The Sixers also have Milwaukee on deck, so I doubt they’ll be 100% focused on Atlanta tonight, even though the Hawks recently beat them. Even if we look at basic season averages the Hawks games at home average 234 total points while Philly averages 227 on the road. Both numbers are much lower than the posted number tonight. When we crunch the numbers with our math model we project just 229 total points in this contest. BET UNDER!
|04-02-19||Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 219||Top||102-116||Loss||-109||12 h 37 m||Show|
ASA play OVER 219 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10”30PM ET –A big factor in the number movement tonight is the pace of play as both teams are playing much slower than normal at this time. In their last five games the Warriors are currently 26th in pace, while Denver is 28th. That pace of play has forced the oddsmaker to over-correct this total and the value clearly lies with the OVER. In fact, these same two teams met less than a month ago and the Total on that game was 235 which means nearly 15-points of adjustment? You’ve heard the term buy low and sell high which is exactly what we are doing tonight. In the game on March 8th these two teams combined for 227 points. Denver is coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season and should rebound here with a much better showing. The Warriors defense isn’t what it has been in the past as they currently rank 15th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.10 points per possession. Offensively though the Warriors are the best in the NBA with an offensive efficiency at averages 1.161PPP and 117.7 points per game. Denver is a top 10 defensive team in the NBA but also the 5th best offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 47% on the season as a team and average 111PPG. The value in the number is the key here and it also helps that 12 of the last sixteen meetings have gone Over the number. This game finishes with 228 or more points. BET OVER!
|04-02-19||Texas +1.5 v. TCU||Top||58-44||Win||100||30 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas +1.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET
Our power ratings have Texas favored by 1 point on a neutral court so the line value is with the Horns in our opinion. On top of that, this is a double revenge spot for Texas who lost both games to TCU this year. They lost a tight game on the road 65-61 back in January. They then lost a huge home game to TCU just a few weeks ago, a game they really needed if they wanted a chance for an at large NCAA tourney bid. The Horns blew it at home shooting just37% while allowing TCU to make 54% of their shots. Worse yet, Texas shot just 21% from behind the arc while the Frogs made over 50% of their 3-pointers. Just an all around poor shooting effort for the Longhorns. Also make note, the Horns top player, Kerwin Roach, did not play in that regular season finale vs TCU but has since come back to score 8, 12, 21, and 14 points since that loss. UT was 1-4 during Roach’s 5-game suspension and they are 3-1 since he came back with their only loss to Kansas in the Big 12 tourney. Roach will be in the line up on Tuesday. Also note that Texas was favored by 7 in that meeting just a few weeks ago and now they are an underdog on a neutral court which is a huge over adjustment in just a few weeks time. After that loss, Texas head coach Shaka Smart was fairly blunt and straight to the point. "I've never been as disappointed as I am right now," said Smart, who is 66-65 overall at Texas, and 31-41 in the Big 12. "I know our players are a better than they played today, I know we're a better team than we played today. It doesn't matter, you've got to go do it." The Longhorns had no idea they’d get another shot at TCU and we expect them to play with an emotional edge here. Both teams come in having won all 3 of their NIT games at home. Despite their two losses to TCU, the Longhorns were the better team all season long. They have a higher power rating, they finished with a better Big 12 record, they were better both offensively and defensively in efficiency (Big 12 games). If it’s a tight game late and comes down to FT’s the Horns made 75.6% of their freebies on conference play while TCU made just 68%. Texas was close to having a much better record than 8-10 in the Big 12 as 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less. TCU, on the other hand, finished 7-11 in league play and 7 of their 11 losses came by 9 points or more. We definitely feel Texas is the better team and with the added motivation we expect them to get the win on Tuesday night.
|04-01-19||Blazers -3.5 v. Wolves||Top||132-122||Win||100||7 h 40 m||Show|
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 80PM ET – The Blazers are battling for the 3rd or 4th seed in the West and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota is gearing up for the offseason and a little R&R. Portland lost a key piece to their team when center Nurkic was lost for the season due to a horrific leg injury but Enes Kanter was brought in as an insurance policy if something like this happened. Without Nurkic the Blazers still outrebound Detroit 68-52 in their last outing despite losing. Kanter delivered 20 points and 15 rebounds in 34 minutes for his first double-double since taking over the starting spot. Kanter isn’t Nurkic, but the dropoff isn’t as dramatic as you might think. Minnesota has their own injuries to worry about. The Wolves are without Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington who are all major contributors. Portland had won 8 of nine games before a loss in Detroit and we expect a bounce back here. The Blazers are 18-9 SU off a loss this year and considering the low nature of this number we expect a SU and ATS win. Portland has some poor early season road numbers but have since improved to 9th in overall road differential at -.1PPG. Again, that’s marginal considering tonight’s circumstances. Portland is on a 10-3 ATS road run and we like them here against a team like Minnesota that has called it a season.
|04-01-19||Pistons v. Pacers -5.5||Top||102-111||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We like the line and money indicators early on here and feel the move on the line is to attract Piston’s backers. We won’t bite and will side with the more desperate Pacers at home off a loss at home. Both are fighting for seeding position in the East but the Pacers are in 5th right now, tied with Boston who holds the tie breaker over them. Despite how Detroit is currently playing, we can’t ignore their 14-24 SU road record or their -3.4PPG differential which was 19th worse in the NBA. Indiana has been fantastic at home this season with a 28-10 SU record and the 3rd best home point differential of +8.9PPG. Indiana played poorly in their last home game against the Magic and will bounce back here. The Pacers are 10-4 SU at home this year off a loss, 3-1 when at home and off a home loss. Earlier this season the Pacers beat the Pistons at home by 37 and we feel they win this game big again, especially considering the Pistons will be without Blake Griffin in this one.
|03-31-19||Wizards +11 v. Nuggets||Top||95-90||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
ASA Washington Wizards +11 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – Washington is officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they continue to play hard with Bradley Beal leading the way. It certainly helps that a few newcomers from the trade deadline are still trying to impress coaches and management. The Wiz are coming off a game a few nights ago in Utah and took the Jazz to the wire before losing 124-128. If they bring that same energy tonight this will be another easy cover. These same two teams recently met in Washington with the Nuggets winning by 5-points. Denver is in a tough spot here as they are coming off two huge road games in Houston and at OKC and have MUCH bigger games on deck with Golden State and then San Antonio. The Nuggets are battling the Warriors for the #1 seed in the West, so they’ll get caught looking ahead to that game, especially since they recently beat this same Wizards team. Denver isn’t playing their best basketball of the season right now with an average negative differential of -6.4PPG in their last five games. Washington has covered 4 of the last five in the series and get another cover here. Grab the points.
|03-31-19||Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke||Top||68-67||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5 PM ET
Duke really shouldn’t be here. They’ve had back to back games go to the wire and each time their opponent (UCF & Va Tech) have missed layups at the buzzer to either win or tie. Now they face a veteran MSU team that is better than both of those opponents and has won their first 3 tourney games by an average of 16 PPG. Sparty has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 2 points. While Michigan State is peaking right now, we’re not so sure we can say the same about Duke. They are 9-3 their last 12 games and nearly half of those wins (4) have come by 2 points or less. Looking at season long numbers a strong argument could be made that the Spartans are simply a better team overall. They are definitely a better shooting team ranking 13th in eFG% while Duke ranks 52nd in that category. The Spartans are the much better 3-point shooting team making 38% from beyond the arc (21st nationally) compared to just 30% for Duke (329th nationally). They also make 75% of their FT’s compared to Duke’s 68%. Defensively they are much closer with MSU ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense while Duke ranks 9th in that category. Rebounding edge also goes to Michigan State with a +9.5 rebounding margin compared to Duke’s sitting at +6.0. MSU is great on the offensive boards (21st) while Duke struggles on the defensive boards (240th). The Devils will also potentially be without their 3rd leading scorer, Cam Reddish, who has a bad knee and will be a game time decision. This one also falls into the same system we had yesterday with Texas Tech. Elite 8 underdogs of +4.5 or less who are also the lower seed are now 20-8 SU and 19-7-1 ATS dating back to 2003. Our power ratings have this game even so getting 2-points is some solid value.
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Purdue, Saturday at 8:49 PM ET
Purdue has simply shot the lights out the last 2 games beating Villanova & Tennessee and shooting 54% from the field in the process. They’ve hit a ridiculous 31 of 61 from 3 point range for 51%. Even with that performance, they needed a stupid foul by UT on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and then OT to beat the Vols. Can they keep that red hot shooting in tact here? We highly doubt it. After facing 2 decent but not great defenses (UT ranked 42 in defensive efficiency & Nova ranked 81st) the Boilers now face a defense that definitely can slow them down. UVA ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 5th in eFG% defense, and 2nd in 3-point FG% defense. Purdue lives beyond the arc and now they face a team that allows their opponents to make just 28% on the season. No way Purdue continues their 50% barrage from deep here. UVA has kind of done the opposite. While Purdue has needed huge offensive performances to move on, the Cavs have not played very well offensively yet they continue to win. On Thursday they shot just 35% overall and a very poor 27% from 3-point range, yet still beat a red hot Oregon team by 4 points. This UVA team is definitely capable of breaking out offensive as they rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency, 20th in eFG%, and 7th in 3-point FG%. They may just break out here vs a Purdue defense that allowed Tennessee to make 50% of their shots on Thursday. If Virginia gets their offense going here, we think they will, we don’t see how Purdue can win this game. This is a bad match up for
|03-30-19||Blazers v. Pistons -5||Top||90-99||Win||100||24 h 17 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: Detroit Pistons -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:00PM ET – These same two teams just met in Portland where the Blazers won by 5. Detroit was in the middles of a 5-game road trip while the Blazers had 2 days rest. Now the roles have flipped. The Pistons are home and rested, Portland is off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Pistons recently played three of the best teams in the West on the road (Denver, Golden State and this Portland team) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to that road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams and they just beat another in the Magic. Detroit is 24-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Portland had center Nurkic in their most recent win over Detroit, but he has since been lost for the season with a horrible leg injury. Without Nurkic and another starter McCollum the Blazers depth will be tested in this back-to-back situation. Detroit is playing with revenge and have done extremely well at home against teams with winning records (6-0 ATS run). Portland now 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest. Lay the points!
|03-30-19||Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||75-69||Win||100||23 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas Tech +4.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET
What a match up we have in this one. It’s the #1 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Gonzaga) vs the #1 defense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Texas Tech). We like the top defense to keep this very close so we’ll take the points. We were on Florida State +8 vs Gonzaga on Thursday as we felt the Noles defense would slow down the Zags while doing enough offensively to keep it close. Well we were half right as FSU held Gonzaga to just 40% shooting. The problem was, the Seminoles shot just 39% and make only 3 of their 20 three point attempts (15%). The game ended with the Zags winning 72-58, however it was much closer than that. It was actually just a 4-point lead for Gonzaga with less than 3:30 remaining and FSU went on to make only 1 of their final 7 shots. The Seminoles also started fouling with 2:00 minutes remaining leading to 7 points from the FT for Gonzaga in the final minutes. If Gonzaga struggled offensive vs FSU they will definitely have problems against Tech. The Red Raiders held a very good Michigan team to only 44 points on 32% shooting on Thursday on their way to a 19 point blowout win. They are playing fantastic basketball winning by margins of 15, 20, and 19 points in the Big Dance. They have covered the spread by more than 40 points in those 3 games combined. They have held those 3 opponents (Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, and Michigan) to just 35% combined shooting. Gonzaga simply isn’t accustomed to facing top notch defensive teams in the WCC and it showed on Thursday vs FSU. We expect Tech’s offense, which has shot 48% in the tourney, to cause some problems for the Zags. Tech also falls into a very strong historical spot here. Since 2003, Elite 8 underdogs of 4.5 points or more and if they are the lower seed are 17-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%)! That falls right on Texas Tech in this one. We think Tech has a great shot to win so we’ll take the points.
|03-29-19||Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 143||Top||73-75||Loss||-110||6 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 143 Points - Duke vs Virginia Tech, Friday at 9:40 PM ET
These two played a few weeks ago and the total was set at 143. They went over by 6 points with Va Tech winning 77-72. Even with that, this total opened 145 and has been bet down to 143 which is telling. If you look closely at their only meeting a few weeks ago, both teams played lights out offensively with VT averaging 1.21 PPP and Duke averaging 1.14 PPG. Both teams shot 62% inside the arc and they combined to make 38 free throws so a lot of clocked stopped, free points. Even with that the game was still at 143 (73-70) with 20 seconds remaining in the game. Va Tech (332nd in tempo) made sure it was a slow paced game as each team had just 50 FG attempts. Expect the same tonight as the Hokies know they can’t get into a running game with Duke and expect to win. The Devils shoot very few 3’s and they are poor shooting team from deep (30% from 3) so they won’t have many threes. Va Tech does like shooting 3’s but they are playing a Duke defense that allows only 29.8% from beyond the arc this season so don’t expect the Hokies to light it up from deep. Neither team fouls very much so we don’t expect 38 made FT’s as they had a few weeks ago. These teams, both being in the ACC, know each other very well and have gone UNDER the total in 14 of their last 17 meetings. Duke has now gone under the total at a rate of 24-10-2 this year and going back further they are 36-17-2 to the UNDER their last 55 games. These two are also playing their first game in Capital One Arena in Washington DC so unfamiliar surroundings could lead to a rough shooting night as well. Two very good defenses (Duke 6th in defensive efficiency & VT 19th) and a slow paced game add up to an UNDER play tonight.
|03-29-19||Warriors v. Wolves UNDER 228.5||Top||130-131||Loss||-105||6 h 28 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET – Minnesota was in the top half of the league in scoring this season but in their last eight games they’ve averaged just 106PPG which is six full points less than their season average. The Wolves are an ‘average’ team in terms of pace of play at 100.1 possessions per game and they’ve shot just 43.5% their last five games. Scoring will be tough tonight against a Warriors team ramping up their defense for a run at another Championship. Golden State has allowed an average of 108PPG (3-points less than reg ssn) their last five games and held foes to just 43.2% shooting. The Warriors are the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season but in their last five games they are the 25th slowest. These two teams met just 10-days ago, and the Vegas number was 229.5 and the two teams combined for just 224 total points. The number on this game hasn’t been adjusted enough based on that previous outcome. Minnesota has a ton of injuries (Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington) and the current roster just isn’t capable of scoring 115 here. Not that this matters much (we base our decisions on stats not trends) but these two teams have stayed below the Total in 25 of their last thirty three meetings.
|03-28-19||Purdue v. Tennessee -1||Top||99-94||Loss||-115||6 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee -1 over Purdue, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET
We were on UT last weekend and they jumped all over Iowa and at one point had a 25-point lead and they were up 21 at half. The Vols came out in the 2nd half and were tentative and absolutely played to protect the lead rather than staying aggressive. They went on to beat Iowa by 6 in OT and we’re pretty sure they learned their lesson. Tonight if they get a lead, which we expect them to do, we do not look for them to back off. They are facing a Purdue team that is very efficient offensively (5th in the country) but relies way too heavily on 1-player as we’ve discussed in the past. Carsen Edwards has taken nearly 35% of Purdue’s shots this season and 41% of their shots thus far in the NCAA tourney. If he is off, this team is in trouble. He was not off in their most recent game last weekend as the Boilers plastered Villanova with Edwards scoring 42 points on 21 shot attempts. He was struggling heading into that game shooting just 27% overall his previous 4 games. Tennessee has a number of athletic defenders they can run at Edwards so we expect him to struggle a bit in this one. As good as the Boilers are on offense, the Vols are better. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted efficiency and 21st in eFG%, both better than Purdue. They are much tougher to guard with 5 players averaging more than 10 PPG which is the opposite of Purdue. While the Boilers rely on making 3-pointers, the Vols are one of the top interior teams in the country with 55% of their points coming from inside the arc (25th nationally) and they make nearly 56% of their 2-pointers (20th nationally). Sometimes deep shooting doesn’t travel quite as well so we trust a team that will be more reliable inside the arc. If Purdue is red hot from 3 and Edwards goes off, UT is in trouble. We don’t expect that to happen so we’ll side with Tennessee to win this one.
|03-28-19||Magic v. Pistons -3||Top||98-115||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
ASA play on: Detroit Pistons -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:00PM ET – Orlando is off a HUGE win over Miami which vaulted them into 8th in the East and we expect a letdown here. In the game against the Heat, the Magic shot below 42% as a team but had a huge rebounding advantage over Miami. They won’t have that advantage here against a Pistons team that is 13th in the league in total rebounds. We laid -4.5 points the other night with the Heat who were 8th in the East at the time, so we’ll lay less points with a better Detroit team at home and off a few losses. The Pistons just played three of the best teams in the West (Denver, Golden State and Portland) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to their current road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams. Another indicator of line value here is the spread on two of those home games when they were favored by -1.5 points over the Raptors and -2.5 over the Pacers. Granted, the Magic are hot right now, but they’re not nearly as good as those two team but are in a similar price range. Orlando has won six in a row but four of those W’s came against Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis. Orlando won 5 of their last six games at home and now travel to Detroit who is 23-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Prior to this current hot streak, the Magic had lost 4 straight on the road and are 2-5 SU their last seven away with all five losses coming by more than tonight’s spread.
|03-27-19||Wizards v. Suns UNDER 230.5||Top||124-121||Loss||-110||7 h 42 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 230 Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET – These two teams have nothing to play for and we feel it shows tonight, especially on the offensive end of the court. Even when we look at general, all season numbers we see the Wizards games averaged 231 total points per game while the Suns games averaged 223PPG. Washington has scored 108 or less points offensively in 4 of their last five games and 113 or less in all five if you exclude OT in the game against the Bulls. The main reason is a much slower pace of play in their last five games. During the rest of the season the Wiz were the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA but in their last five they are 23rd slowest. Washington is also the 8th worst offensive efficiency team in the league over that 5-game span. Phoenix has really dipped offensive of late as they’ve scored 103 or less points in 6 of their last seven games. Over a 5-game span the Suns have the worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA as they score just 1.029 points per possession. Phoenix and their opponent have totaled more than 230 points in just 2 of their last twelve games. Washington and their foe have totaled 230 or more points in just 2 of their last eight games but one of those was an OT affair. Based on the math and current trending numbers this game finishes with just 218 total points. BET UNDER!
|03-27-19||Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 163||Top||87-92||Win||100||7 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 163 Points - Coastal Carolina @ DePaul, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET
Two red hot offensive teams going at it tonight in Chicago. DePaul loves playing at home where they average 81 PPG on 48% shooting. They are one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 49th in offensive efficiency and 74th in eFG%. In their last 4 home games the Demons have scored 92, 101, 100, and 97 points. We expect more of the same tonight as they face a Coastal Carolina team that is allowing 79 PPG on the road this season. DePaul loves to play fast (69th in tempo) and CC will do the same (77th in tempo). Not only does Coastal play fast, they can score in bunches as well. They average 77 PPG on the season and they’ve topped 90 in 4 of their last 8 games. They are coming off a game @ WVU in which they put up 109 points which was the most every vs a Bob Huggins team. They also allowed the Mountaineers to score 91 so the defense was far from stellar. CC should have very good success tonight offensively against a DePaul team that was the worst defense in the Big East this year ranking 282nd nationally in eFG% defense. The Blue Demons have allowed 85 PPG over their last 10 games with all but 2 of those opponents topping 80 points. Both teams played on Monday so a 48 hour turnaround will only make these defenses worse in our opinion. This line sits at DePaul -8 which suggests a final score of 86-78 or right in that range. We like both teams to surpass their projected score for tonight and we like the OVER.
|03-26-19||Florida International v. Green Bay OVER 176.5||Top||68-98||Loss||-109||21 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 176.5 points - FIU @ UW Green Bay, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
Two of the fastest paced teams in the nation and two terrible defenses lead to a high scoring track meet in this one. FIU is #1 in the nation in tempo getting a shot up every 14 seconds! UWGB is far behind as they rank 10th in tempo hoisting a shot an average of every 14.8 seconds. Both defenses are terrible with UWGB ranking 340th in scoring defense (out of 351 teams) and FIU ranks 337th. The Phoenix rank 284th in eFG% defense and FIU ranks 276th in the same category. On offense, Green Bay has scored 80+ points in 11 of their 15 home games this season and FIU allows more PPG (81 PPG overall / 86 PPG on the road) than any defense GB has faced this season. The same can be said for FIU. The worst scoring defense they have faced this season will be UWGB (82 PPG allowed). These two have each played one game in the CIT thus far with FIU beating Texas State 87-81 and UWGB topping East Tennessee State 102-94. Both high scoring games combining to go OVER by 55 points, yet the opponents were much different. Each were slow paced teams with much better defenses yet they still put up big numbers offensively. Texas State is ranked 305th in tempo and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. ETSU ranks 203rd in efficiency and 112th in defensive efficiency. We like both teams to get to 90 points here which would send it OVER the total.
|03-26-19||Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215.5||Top||116-106||Win||100||5 h 32 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – There was a big line move on this game as the opening total was quite a bit higher than the current number, but it wasn’t money that moved the line, it was injuries. The Celtics will sit Kyrie Irving tonight (maybe Tatum) but that shouldn’t have as big an impact on the move as it did. The reason being, the depth of the Celtics has proven to be a problem all season long as they simply have too many great players and not enough minutes to go around. Irving’s back up Rozier is a starter for at least half of the teams in the NBA. Cleveland is playing well right now and a lot of that has to do with two things. One, the return of Kevin Love who is coming off a 20-point, 19-rebound game on Sunday in Milwaukee. Love has seven double-doubles in his 15 games since returning from a foot injury. Two, the emergence of Cavs rookie Collin Sexton. Sexton has scored 20+ points in 8 of his last nine games. The trending numbers that support our Over wager here are obvious. On the year, the Cavs are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA, 26th worst offensive efficiency team and last in defensive efficiency. But if you look at their most recent five games (with Love) they are playing the same tempo, but they are averaging 1.174 points per possession (9th) and are allowing 1.207 point per possession which is worse than their (worst) league average. In other words, scoring much more efficiently and allowing more points rather easily. Boston has similar trending numbers: 14th reg ssn in pace at 99.6, 7th last five games at 100.7. Offensive efficiency numbers are slightly lower their last five games but it’s a consistent number. Defensively is where the Celtics have struggled. On the season they are the 7th best defensive efficiency unit allowing just 1.078PPP but in their last five games they allow 1.175PPG which is 24th in the NBA. The Cavaliers have played two games against a Bucks team that is like the Celtics and Vegas posted numbers of 223 and 225.5 on those two contests. Boston has had 16 straight games where the Total has been 220 or higher. The value in the number is too great to pass on. Bet OVER!
|03-25-19||Nets v. Blazers UNDER 226||Top||144-148||Loss||-110||12 h 15 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 226 Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – There are some indicators here that favor the Under as it pertains to public money and line fluctuation and we like what we are seeing. Brooklyn is coming off three straight games against teams from the West that like to play fast. The Kings are 2nd fastest, Lakers 3rd and Clippers are 8th in tempo in the NBA. That’s not the case with the Blazers that rank 18th in that category. That means the home team is going to dictate the style of play here. Recently when the Blazers have played two road games against similar teams to the Blazers the two games resulted in just 212 and 204 total points. In their last five games the Nets are shooting under 42% as a team but holding opponents to less that 44%. In their last five games the Nets and their opponents are averaging 222 total points. The Blazers in that same 5 game stretch are totaling 224 points. Portland prefers to play slower at home as they are the 10th slowest team when playing at home. In their most recent home game, the Blazers and Pistons combined for 229 total points, but the two teams attempted just 163 total field goal attempts which is 15 less than league average. The Nets are now on a 5-0 Under run when coming off a win while Portland is on an 8-1 Under run against teams with an above .500 record. These same two teams met in Brooklyn just over a month ago and combined for 212 total points. The bet here is UNDER!
|03-24-19||Spurs v. Celtics UNDER 220||Top||115-96||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 219.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – This game has meaning for both teams as the Celtics are battling for home court in the first round of the playoffs but currently sit 5th in the East. San Antonio sits safely in 8th in the West but are only a game out of 5th which would mean going to Portland instead of say Denver or Golden State. With plenty to play for we expect a defensive game which results in a lower total. We’re seeing the Spurs settling into playoff intensity as they’ve now gone Under the total in 8 of their last ten games. In their last six games the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals to 221 or less four times. San Antonio is 22nd in the league in pace of play on the season averaging 98.5 possessions per game. In their last five games the Spurs tempo has slowed even more to 96.8 possessions per game which is 5th slowest. Boston has also preferred to play slower all season long with the 17th slowest tempo in the NBA. The Celtics have the 6th best overall defensive efficiency rating for the season as they allow just 1.077 points per possession. The Spurs haven’t been great defensively on the season, but they have been their last five games allowing just 1.057PPG over that stretch of games. In their last three home games against similar teams from the Western Conference (Denver, Houston and Portland) the Celtics and those opponents have scored 219, 219 and 189 total points. When playing without rest this season the C’s games have averaged just 214.2PPG. After blowing an 18-point lead last night the Celtics will be much more focused on the defensive end of the court. The bet here is UNDER THE TOTAL!
|03-24-19||Liberty v. Virginia Tech -8.5||Top||58-67||Win||100||6 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Virginia Tech -8.5 over Liberty, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET
We think the line value is on Va Tech here. The power rating difference between Va Tech & Liberty is in the exact same range as the difference between Duke vs UCF along with UNC vs Washington. While those spreads sit at -13 and -12 respectively, the Hokies are laying only 9. We used Va Tech vs St Louis in the first round and the Hokies were up 40-18 at half but got complacent in the 2nd stanza and won by 14. We mentioned in that analysis we feel VT is underrated. They rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are one of only 8 teams that can make that claim and the other 7 teams are all #1 or #2 seeds. Liberty trailed for much of their opener vs Miss State but made a bunch of 3’s late for their comeback 4-point win, which was their largest lead of the game. They are facing an MSU defense that isn’t great and they are terrible at defending the 3 (254th nationally) so it was a solid match up for the Liberty offense. They won’t have nearly as much success today vs a very athletic and active VT zone defense. Tech also received a huge boost on Friday when starting PG and leader Justin Robinson returned after missing 12 straight games to end the season. Robinson gave them a solid 28 minutes (9 points) and should play even better today with a game under his belt. Liberty got their big comeback win on Friday, their first every tourney win. Today we think they are in big trouble vs a VaTech team that is the best team they’ve played this season. Similar to what happened to Murray State yesterday (we were on FSU in that game) we see a potential blowout here. Take Va Tech.
|03-24-19||Iowa v. Tennessee -7.5||Top||77-83||Loss||-111||13 h 7 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-7.5) over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET
We played against Iowa on Friday vs Cincinnati and it looked great early on as Cincy jumped out to a 13 point first half lead. The Bearcats still led by 5 at halftime and then Iowa shot the lights out in the 2nd half. For the game the Hawkeyes shot almost 55% including 11 three pointers. The Hawks don’t score all that effectively inside (46% of their points – 281st nationally) and Tennessee is great defensively inside the arc allowing teams to shoot just 44% (14th nationally). That means Iowa better be making their 3’s again to stay in this game and we just don’t see them shooting like that again vs this talented Tennessee team. Let’s not forget that the Vols could have easily been a #1 seed and they were ranked #1 in the nation for much of the season. This line does not reflect that as they are laying just -8 vs an Iowa team that sans their performance yesterday, simply wasn’t playing well losing 6 of their previous 8 games, with 4 of those 6 losses coming by double digits. The Vols can score from all levels as they are very good inside the arc but have shooters that can score from deep. They prefer to score inside which turns into a terrible match up for Iowa’s defense. UT hits 56% of their shots from 2-point land (19th nationally) and they score 56% of their points inside the arc (20th nationally). Iowa’s interior defense has been poor all season as they allow opponents to make almost 54% of their shots inside the 3-point line (309th nationally). The Vols should feast inside and as we said they are more than capable from deep as well making 36% of their 3’s. They also make 77% of their FT’s so if they get to the line they will take advantage there as well. UT is better offensively (3rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) and much better defensively. Iowa had their out of the ordinary shooting game on Friday and they come back to earth here. That leads to a double digit win for UT.
|03-23-19||Pistons v. Blazers -5||Top||112-117||Push||0||11 h 1 m||Show|
ASA play on: #528 Portland Trailblazers -5 over Detroit Pistons, 10PM ET – First we’ll apologize for an abbreviated analysis today. The NCAA Tourney has us extremely busy. But rest assured we’ve done all the work as usual with our handicapping process but are limited with time for write ups. Both teams have plenty to play for as they battle for better position in their perspective conferences. We are aware of Detroit’s current 15-5 SU record but they haven’t been a good road team all season long with a 14-21 SU away mark. The Pistons road point differential of -3.2PPG is 16th in the league and a big reason why is their offensive struggles away from home (23rd in road OEFF ratings). Portland has been fantastic at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and an average differential of +8.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating on their home court this season, averaging 1.170 points per possession. Taking a closer look at Detroit’s road results we see they’ve struggled against good teams on the road. Against playoff teams recently they lost at Miami by 34, Brooklyn by 28, San Antonio by 12, at Boston by 8 and at Utah by 6-points. Portland has had some impressive home wins lately against some of the best teams in the West and most recently beat a Pacers team at home by 8 who is rated better than the Pistons in the East. Even without McCollum we like the Blazers to get a double-digit home win here. Lay it!
|03-23-19||Villanova +4 v. Purdue||Top||61-87||Loss||-109||22 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Villanova +4 over Purdue, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET
Our power rating has Purdue favored by 2 in this game so we feel we’re getting a full possession of value. We went against the Boilers on Thursday and missed by a half point. ODU was +12.5 in that game, trailed by 9 with 4:00 remaining and made one shot the rest of the way losing by 13. We still contend Purdue is overrated right now. They didn’t play great down the stretch losing twice to Minnesota and playing a number of close games on the road down the stretch losing @ Maryland and barely beating Indiana & Nebraska. The Boilers rely way too heavily on one guy. Carsen Edwards. He took 611 shots leading into last night’s game where he was 7 for 23 (30%). He shooting just barely over 25% his last 4 games combined as he is clearly wearing down. The problem with Thursday’s game is ODU is a poor shooting team and they struggled to score so they could not take advantage of Edward’s struggles. We thought it would be a very low scoring game and ODU could keep it within the 12.5 points which they almost did despite shooting just 26% for the game and 24% from beyond the arc. Purdue won’t get that luxury with Nova. The Boiler defense goes from defending the 240th most efficient offense to the 16th most efficient with Villanova. Both teams shoot a lot of 3’s and both shoot them pretty well. Nova defends the arc better which should help here. The Cats are more balanced and led by 2 seniors (Booth & Paschall) who started on last year’s National Championship team. They are led by possibly the best coach in college basketball, Jay Wright who’s won 2 of the last 3 National Championships, and you can bet they’ll be prepared here. This team knows how to get it done at tourney time and we think they’ll win this game outright. Take the points.
|03-23-19||Murray State v. Florida State -4.5||Top||62-90||Win||100||20 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida State -4.5 over Murray State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
The value is absolutely on FSU here. They are favored by 4.5 to 5 which is the same number Marquette was favored over Murray State. FSU power rates to the 16th best team nationally while Marquette is 31st. The Eagles were faltering at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 coming into the Dance. Because people saw what Murray did to an overrated Marquette team, they are now the talk of the town. FSU is a different animal. While Marquette had nobody that could guard Ja Morant, the Noles have plenty of big perimeter defenders with all starters measuring 6’4 or taller. Not only are they big (12th tallest team in the nation) they defend very well (11th nationally in defensive efficiency). This will be the best defense the Racers have faced this season. Don’t expect them to shoot 53% from the field as they did they did the other night vs a Marquette defense that had no chance to contain Morant. FSU can get it done offensively as well (32nd in offensive efficiency) with 7 players that average between 7 PPG and 13 PPG. The Noles should control the boards as well in this one. They are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation while Murray ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding. Not that FSU needed any extra motivation but they have it here. One of the leaders, Phil Cofer who is currently injured, lost his father on Thursday after their win and you can guarantee this team will play as hard as they have all season on Saturday. Murray State is a very nice story but to give you an idea of where they stand, based on power ratings, they would be the 10th best team in the ACC, just behind Syracuse. They had a nice win on Thursday which was a perfect situation for them playing a faltering team with nobody to slow down Morant. FSU is a different animal and we like the Noles to roll here.
|03-22-19||St. Louis v. Virginia Tech -10||Top||52-66||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET
This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney. The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in. First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned. They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days. They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%). Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games. Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses. Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally. The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG. They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury. He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates. With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range. We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here. Take Virginia Tech tonight.
|03-22-19||Iona v. North Carolina UNDER 166.5||Top||73-88||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 166.5 Points - Iona vs North Carolina, Friday at 9:20 PM ET
We see this game playing out very much like yesterday’s game between Gonzaga and Farleigh Dickinson. It was a game the Zags jumped out big and led 53-17 at halftime. In the 2nd half with a large lead, the Zags shut it down and coasted to an 87-49 win (146 points). FDU really struggled to score against the longer, more athletic Zags. We see Iona having the same problem here. If the Gaels were a prolific 3-point shooting team or really good shooting team period, then we wouldn’t be on this under. But the fact is, Iona was an average shooting team in a bad defensive conference. They rank 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage. That’s in an MAAC that was terrible defensively with 9 of their 11 teams ranking 200 or lower in defensive efficiency. Now Iona faces a UNC defense that ranks 10th nationally in that category. We feel Iona will struggle to get good shots and struggle to score in this game. UNC will score and they’ll run. That’s what they do. However, that’s what Gonzaga likes to do as well and you saw how that game turned out. UNC could score 50 or more by halftime but the in the 2nd half we look for them to slow the game down a bit, substitute players, and make sure they are fresh for Sunday, similar to what the Zags did yesterday. We don’t think Iona gets to 70 in this game. We look for low 60’s based on our numbers. If that happens UNC has to get to 100 for this to have a chance. Even if the Heels keep the pressure on, which we can’t imagine they will, and get to 95, Iona would have to get to 72 to get this game over the number. We just don’t see that happening. With UNC favored by 22 the oddsmakers see this score around 94-72. We think neither team reaches that number. Take the UNDER.
|03-22-19||Georgia State v. Houston UNDER 142||Top||55-84||Win||100||24 h 56 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 142 Points - Georgia State vs Houston, Friday at 7:20 PM ET
This play is backed by a longtime trend that involves a #3/#14 seed which is 12-30 to the Under the last 42 times it’s applied. This Houston Cougars team isn’t the Phi Slama Jama team of the early 80’s, that was built on transition and outscoring opponents. This Cougars team is tenacious defensively with the 13th overall defensive efficiency rating and the #1 EFG% defense. Houston is the 2nd best team in nation in defending the 3-point shot and 5th against 2-pointers. The Cougars also protect the rim with a team that ranks 20th in the country in block percentage. On the year Houston held opponents to just 36.7% shooting and 61.2PPG. Georgia State allowed 1.026 points per possession this year which is above average by national standards, but it was their D late in the season which has us excited for this Under. In their last five games the Panthers have held opponents to just 37% shooting and an average of 65PPG. And three of those five games came against the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is an efficiency conference overall that likes to play fast. In their two Sun Belt tourney games the Panthers combined for just 105 points with Texas State and 137 with UT Arlington. The bet here is UNDER the total.
|03-22-19||Arizona State +5 v. Buffalo||Top||74-91||Loss||-110||21 h 47 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET
We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt. The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points. We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in. They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented. If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1. They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG. We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney. They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league. The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT. The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process. The MAC is proving us correct thus far. The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette. Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12. Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11. The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40. Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS! We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on. Take the points.
|03-22-19||Iowa v. Cincinnati -3.5||Top||79-72||Loss||-109||17 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET
We love this match up for Cincy. The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston. They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record. They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish. Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch. It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February. They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game. We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here. Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense. Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively. Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games. That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP. Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again. The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding. This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away. Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league. It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney. The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding. They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one.
|03-21-19||Old Dominion +12.5 v. Purdue||Top||48-61||Loss||-104||25 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET
ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games. ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%. While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number. This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION
|03-21-19||Pistons v. Suns UNDER 218||Top||118-98||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
ASA play on: #589/590 UNDER 218 Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM - During the regular season the Pistons are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA but in their last five games they are actually THE slowest paced at just 93.9 possessions per game. On the year the Pistons have the 11th best defensive efficiency rating while Phoenix is 29th or second to last. But the Suns have been much better defensively in their past five games allowing just 1.113 points per possession which is 15th best in the league. Detroit has really struggled to shoot the basketball of late as they are averaging below 40% their previous five games. In eight of their last ten games the Pistons have allowed 108 or less points to opponents. The Suns have allowed 111 or less in 5 of their last nine. The Pistons just allowed 126 points to the Cavs so their will be a concentrated effort to be much better on that end of the court. In fact, when the Pistons have allowed 125 or more points in a game, in their next contest the Under is 6-1. Phoenix has also played Under in 5 straight home games. The bet here is UNDER the total.
|03-21-19||St. Mary's v. Villanova UNDER 131||Top||57-61||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 131 Points - St Marys vs Villanova, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET
St Mary’s won WCC tourney by beating Gonzaga 60-47. Nova won the Big East tourney winning their 3 games by margins of 11, 4 in OT, and 2 points. Zags averaged 90 PPG on the season and St Mary’s held them to 69 & 47 points their final 2 meetings of the season. Gaels held 6 of their final 8 opponents to 65 points or less and they play very slow ranking #347 in tempo out of 351 teams. Villanova plays very slow as well (#333 in tempo) so not many possessions in this game. Nova relies heavily on the 3-point shot with almost 43% of their points coming from beyond the arc (9th most nationally). The Gaels defend the 3 well so that should make it tough on Nova's offense. Neither team fouls very much so we don't expect many points from the charity stripe in this game. Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers and both protect the ball well offensively so we won't see many steals and run outs here. We expect this game to be a grinder with the winner scoring in the low 60's. UNDER is the play.
|03-21-19||Florida +2.5 v. Nevada||Top||70-61||Win||100||22 h 57 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET
This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo). This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree. A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team. The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall. They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida). The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating). They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation. Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion. Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season. Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%. Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub. Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney. They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference. Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking. Take the Gators
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette OVER 149||Top||83-64||Loss||-115||25 h 5 m||Show|
OVER 149.5 Murray State vs Marquette, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET (Hartford, CT)
Murray State can score as they average 81 PPG. Guard Ja Morant will be a first round NBA pick and he is averaging 24 PPG. He’s not the only Racer that can score as they have 3 others that average more than 10 PPG. You’d think with good guard play Murray State shoots a lot of 3’s but they don’t. They score almost 54% of their points inside the arc which is 60th nationally. They also shoot 57% inside the arc which is the 2nd best percentage in the nation. Marquette is the opposite. They shoot a lot of 3’s and they make them at a 39.3% clip (9th nationally). Markus Howard, the Hauser brothers, and Sacar Anim ALL shoot over 40% from deep. They struggle to score inside with most of those points coming off 3-point misses. Murray State’s defense looks like they match up well as they give up only 28% from beyond the arc which is good for 4th best nationally. However, that might be exaggerated due to their easy schedule (270TH) which also plays a part in their inflated defensive efficiency numbers of .987 points per possession. Murray State ranks 97th in tempo or pace and get a shot up every 16.4 seconds which is 64th. Marquette is 119th in tempo and get a field goal attempt every 16.9 seconds for 96th. Both teams are top 50 in EFG% offense meaning they don’t need a lot of attempts to efficiently score. It all adds up to an EASY OVER!
|03-21-19||Bradley v. Michigan State UNDER 134||Top||65-76||Loss||-105||19 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 134 Points - Bradley vs Michigan State, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET
After starting the conference season 0-5, Bradley rallied and finished in 5th place in the MVC this year with a 9-9 record. They won the MVC tourney winning 3 games in 3 days last weekend, 2 of those as an underdog. The Braves scored just 61, 53, and 57 points in those 3 and were able to win all 3. Scoring has been a problem for Bradley scoring just 66 PPG this season finishing 8th in the 10 team league. This team hasn’t gotten to 70 points since February 9th. Braves play very slow (#299 in tempo) and rely on their defense which was #1 in the Missouri Valley in eFG% defense. Bradley will have a tough time getting their offense moving in the right direction vs MSU defense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in eFG% defense. It’s easily the best defense Bradley has faced this year. To give you an idea, the top rated defense in the MVC is Loyola and they rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency, basically 90 spots below Michigan State. Only 1 of MSU’s last 11 opponents has topped 70 points. This should be a grinder and UNDER is the play.
|03-20-19||Arizona State -1.5 v. St. John's||Top||74-65||Win||100||6 h 30 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State -2 over St Johns, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET
These two were heading in opposite directions down the stretch. ASU won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of red hot Oregon who has now won and covered 8 games in a row. The Devils played the Ducks tougher than anyone on the Pac 12 tourney losing by 4 in overtime. That’s rather impressive as the Ducks beat all of their other 3 opponents in the Pac 12 tourney by double digits including beating regular season champ Washington by 20 points. They were also the much more consistent team this year finishing alone in 2nd in the Pac 12 with a 12-6 record. St Johns, on the other hand, is sitting in this position mainly due to their 14-1 start to the season. That gave them quite a buffer and they needed it as they went 7-11 the rest of the way. The Johnnies have lost 5 of their last 7 games including setbacks at the hands of DePaul, Providence, and Xavier (twice) all non-NCAA tourney teams. Their top scoring guard Ponds is shooting only 42% from the field his last 5 games and it looks to us like he is starting to wear down after carrying the load for much of the season. Ponds is a slight 6’1 and 175 pounds and the physical Big East has taken it’s toll. He’s been held below his scoring average (20 PPG) in 7 of the last 9 games. ASU gets to the line as much as any team in this tourney with over 22% of their points this year coming from the charity stripe (21st nationally). That’s bad news for St Johns as they foul A LOT. Expect the Sun Devils to live at the foul line tonight. Another huge advantage for ASU will be on the boards ranking 38th nationally in rebound margin compared to the Johnnies who are 337th in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities in this game. In a potential close game if ASU can get some extra shot attempts up due to their rebounding advantage and end up at the FT line more often, that will make a huge difference. ASU was in this play in game last year and lost to Syracuse so a little extra motivation for them along with the familiarity of playing in this situation. The Johnnies haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2000 and they may just be happy to be here. Lay the small number with Arizona State.
|03-20-19||Wizards -2.5 v. Bulls||Top||120-126||Loss||-106||6 h 18 m||Show|
ASA play on: Washington Wizards -2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Somebody in the Bulls front office needs to sit down head coach Jim Boylan and ask him what the hell he is doing? The Bulls currently sit a game and a half in front of the Cavs for a better chance at securing a better pick in this year’s draft. In any event, the Bulls return home off a 3-game road trip and are off a win in their previous game so expect a letdown here. Chicago has NO home court advantage as they own the worst point differential in the league on their home court of -8.7PPG. Chicago is the least efficient offensive team in the league at home and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency. Granted the Wiz have been a horrible road team but they are still mathematically alive for the 8th seed in the East and have something to play for. Washington comes into this game off a loss and a horrendous shooting night by Bradley Beal so expect a concentrated effort here. Washington has won 3 of their last five games overall and are a healthier unit coming into this game. We like the added incentive of a few former Bulls (Portis and Parker) who were traded to the Wizards at the trade deadline, facing their previous team. Both have played much better since the deal and both were instrumental in a 9-point win here earlier this month. Take the better team with more to play for in this match up and lay the short number.
|03-19-19||Pacers v. Clippers -4.5||Top||109-115||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Indiana Pacers, 10:30PM ET – We’re not being stubborn here, we’re betting numbers and value, and the best value on the board today is the Clippers. Yes, we’ve lost with them twice in a row, but they had both games covered until very late in the game before the Bulls and Nets got back door covers. The Clippers are playing great right now and look like a tough out in the Western Conference playoffs this year. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6-1 L7. In their last five games, which includes a loss, they have an average point differential of +4.4PPG. Those ten wins in this current run for the Clippers have come by an average of 12.1PPG and ALL but one of those victories were by more than tonight’s spread. The Pacers are in a tough spot here coming off a close loss in Portland last night, playing their 3rd in four nights (which includes a game in the higher altitude of Denver) and 4th game in six days. Their last three games have come against the much tougher Western Conference too. Both teams are fighting for a better seeding spot in their Conference, but the Clippers have been at home, are rested and should be focused off two straight close wins. The Pacers 22nd ranked road defensive efficiency unit catches up to them here against a Clippers offense that ranks 1st in efficiency their last five games.
|03-19-19||Hofstra +9.5 v. NC State||Top||78-84||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Hofstra +9.5 over NC State - Tuesday at 7 PM ET on ESPN2
You have to wonder what NC State’s motivation level will be here? They were expecting to get into the Big Dance and their Athletic Director was complaining after the snub. Keep in mind they were in the NCAA tourney last year so it will be tough for the returning players to get overly excited about the NIT. We’re guessing the mindset of the Wolfpack players tonight won’t be great. There is more to it than that however. This is a dangerous match up for NC State. Hofstra is a very good team that finished the season 27-7 and at one point during the season won 16 consecutive games. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is excited to be playing a Power 5 team in the opening round. Hofstra is a very good offensive team scoring 83 PPG which makes it very tough to blow this team out. Only 2 of their 7 losses came by more than 10 points and their worst loss of the year was a 14 point setback. They shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG% and 12th in 3-point FG%. They get to the line a lot with over 21% of their points coming from the charity stripe and when they do they hit 80% as a team (2nd best in the nation). Hofstra also protects the ball very well turning it over only 14% of the time which is the 4th fewest in the country. That’s a bad mix for an NC State defense that pressures the ball, thrives on turnovers, and fouls a lot. The Wolpack weren’t a great home team this year losing 4 games while Hofstra is comfortable on the road where they were 12-6 this year (away & neutral). This game is being played at Reynolds Coliseum which is actually not the normal home court for NC State but home to the women’s basketball program. The men only played one game here this year and that was way back on Dec 5th. We like Hofstra to give NC State all they can handle tonight and easily cover this spread.
|03-18-19||Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 221||Top||114-105||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
ASA play UNDER 221 Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – With money and tickets coming in on the Over here, yet the line fluctuated down, we will bet Under here. The line was set higher than it should have been from the opener as the Celtics have played five straight higher scoring games. But those five games have come against the Hawks, Kings (twice), Lakers and Clippers who are all ranked top 10 in pace. The tempo tonight is going to be much slower as the Nuggets are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.9 possessions per game. In their last five games the Nugs are playing even slower yet at just 94.5 possessions per game. Both teams are top ten in offensive efficiency but also top 11 in defensive efficiency. Prior to their most recent two home games against the fast-paced Kings and Hawks (1st and 2nd) the Celtics had played three straight Unders at home against Houston, Washington and Portland. Houston and Portland have some similar characteristics as Denver tonight. These two teams average fewer total points per game overall on the season, Denver averages 217 total points per game on the road while Boston averages 222 at home. The Nuggets have stayed under in 6 straight road games against the good teams in the league with a winning percentage of .600 or better. When these same two teams met in early November the total was set at 209.5 so you can see for yourself the value with tonight’s number. BET UNDER!
|03-17-19||Nets v. Clippers -6||Top||116-119||Loss||-109||11 h 40 m||Show|
ASA play on: LA Clippers -6 over Brooklyn Nets 9PM ET – We were counting the Clippers as a “winner” in their last game against the Bulls, as they were up 15-points late, but then let the backdoor cover happen. Count that as a lesson learned which won’t happen here against the Nets, especially with the smaller number. Prior to their two most recent games, the Clippers had won 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG, and they’ve hit 6 of their last seven, all by a margin of more than today’s spread. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.4PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been good their past five games as they rank 7th in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +5.4PPG. They also have the best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span as they average 1.184 points per possession. The Nets are in a touch scheduling situation here as they played last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd straight road game against a playoff team from the West. Brooklyn was a +7.5-point dog in OKC, plus 9 in Utah and those two teams are within two games of the Clippers in the West. The Nets lost both games by 12 and 16 points. Brooklyn is pretty much entrenched in the 6th – 8th seed in the East so this game isn’t as important to them. The Clippers on the other hand are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed in the West which would be home court in the first round so they have way more to play for. Brooklyn is just 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season
|03-17-19||Michigan +1 v. Michigan State||Top||60-65||Loss||-110||4 h 45 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET
MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game. These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title. The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control. “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game. MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten. That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome. Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one. In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings. We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions. MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%. Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27. Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here. MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half. Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes. The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here. We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season. We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship.
|03-16-19||Pacers v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||100-102||Loss||-109||9 h 54 m||Show|
ASA play on: #514 Denver Nuggets -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET – At first glance this line looks high considering the Pacers are a top 4 seed in the East and fighting for their playoff seeding lives. But Denver also has a lot to play for as they sit just one game behind the Warriors for the top overall record in the West. The Nuggets are one of a handful of teams that can win the NBA Championship and as they have 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league and are 12th in DEFF. Their efficiency numbers at home are even better yet and they win on their home court by an average of 11.2PPG which is the second-best number in the league. The Pacers have some solid road efficiency numbers and an average road differential of -.3PPG which is 9th best but that clearly won’t get a cover today in Denver. When we evaluate the spread on this game, we can compare the Pacers last two road games in Philly and Milwaukee where they were +6 and +10 but got blown out in each. Denver is coming off a very close home win over a bad Dallas team which should serve as a wake-up call here. The Nuggets are 15-8 SU against the East this season and against comparable Eastern Conference teams at home they’ve beaten Philly by 16, Toronto by 8 and Boston by 9. They did lose to the Bucks at home, but Milwaukee is on another level. In usual fashion we will play contrarian here and go opposite of the money. BET DENVER MINUS!
|03-16-19||Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 231||Top||110-88||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 231 Golden State @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30PM ET – This is clearly the biggest game on the card today and a marquee matchup between two Titans in the Western Conference. The number set by Vegas is significantly higher than what our math model suggests which is not a huge surprise considering the two teams involved. This will be the third time these two teams are meeting this season and the first two clashes had Totals set of 220 and 223. Both games stayed Under those numbers with combined points of 208 and 218. These are two of the top 10 teams in terms of pace of play this season BUT in their last five games both are playing slower than season averages. That change in style has led to 6 straight Unders for Golden State and 8 of their last ten. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game Under run and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last ten. Golden State has been a defensive juggernaut the past few seasons, but their defensive efficiency has dropped off significantly this season. Even with that dip though, they are 12th in the league in points allowed per game on the road this year. OKC has the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league as they allow just 1.063 points per possession. The Thunder’s last three home games have finished with 212, 194 and 204 total points being scored. Without scoring machine Kevin Durant in this game for the Warriors we expect to see a scoring dip for the Warriors (scored just 106 in Houston last game). The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings between these two teams on this floor, 17-5 Under the last 22. The bet here is UNDER!
|03-16-19||Western Kentucky -1 v. Old Dominion||Top||56-62||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year
We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely. They are a team that if motivated is very good. They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia. They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle. Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential. This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated. One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11. USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19). ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long. They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting. Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost. They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1. ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game! Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining! ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining. Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both. However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games. Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4. Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3. Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off. There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st. Take Western Kentucky.
|03-15-19||Bulls v. Clippers -8.5||Top||121-128||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
ASA play on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10:30PM ET – We successfully played against the Clippers in their last game against the Blazers as they were in a tough scheduling situation. Now with rest, we expect them to return to the form that saw them win 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG. Included in that five-game winning streak the Clippers beat a similar team to the Bulls, the Knicks, by 21-points when they were favored by 10. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the post season in their last game and it clearly looks like they’ve quit on the season. The Bulls are just 1-5 SU their last six games and the last three losses have come by 8, 23 and 16 points. Their most recent defeat was at home to the Lakers by 16 and the other LA team isn’t nearly as good as this one. Chicago has the 6th worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -7PPG, rank 28th in offensive efficiency on the road and 17th in road defensive efficiency. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.3PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been really good their past five games as they rank 2nd in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +8.2PPG. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span. The Bulls have not covered a came in their last six road contests against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600 and will nothing to play for here, the Bulls get beat by double-digits. Lay the points with the Clippers.
|03-15-19||Colorado +3.5 v. Washington||Top||61-66||Loss||-110||3 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year
This line looks like a trap to us. The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th? Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above. We like Colorado here. Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team. Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those. The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games. Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT. Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8. During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford). Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field. The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They are confident and dangerous right now. Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight.
|03-15-19||Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 127||Top||62-66||Loss||-110||4 h 22 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 127 Points - Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Friday at 3 PM ET
This is a low number for a total but we don’t expect these two to get there. Nebraska is playing their 3rd game in 3 days so shooting legs will be an issue. They are a very thin team with only 6 scholarship players remaining. The Huskers were already a slow paced team but due to their limited numbers they have gone very slow in this tourney with just 105 and 101 shot attempts (both teams combined) in their first two games in this tourney. They’ve totaled 128 & 130 in those games and now they face the slowest paced team and the top defense in the Big Ten so we expect lower numbers than the first two games today. We had a winner on the UNDER yesterday in the Nebraska – Maryland game as they scored 129 but that was very deceiving as the game was on pace to score less than 115 for much of the game. They combined for 52 points in the final 10:00 minutes and it still only reached 130. Wisconsin will be playing their first game in this tourney so we look for them to struggle shooting the ball at the United Center. The Badgers have gone 12 straight games without scoring 70 points in regulation and we don’t expect it here. The Nebraska defense has held their first 2 opponents in this tourney to 61 points each so we anticipate mid 60’s at best for Wisconsin. The UW defense has held their Big Ten opponents to just 60 PPG (first in the conference) and we’d be shocked in the Huskers got out of the 50’s in this game. Wisconsin’s defense has not allowed more than 67 points in ANY of their last 15 games (in regulation) and over half of those opponents (8) did not top 60 points. In their lone meeting this year @ Nebraska, the oddmakers set the total at 128 which is nearly where we sit here in a much different circumstance. The Huskers were full strength in that game and it was in at Pinnacle Arena which is much more conducive to shooting well. Even with that the two combined to score only 113 combined points. We would lean Wisconsin in this game but with the spread sitting at -8 currently, that could be a bit dangerous in a low scoring game. We feel the UNDER is the much better way to go here.