|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia -115||Top||77-85||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -115 on the money line over Texas Tech, Monday at 9:20 PM ET
You’ve heard us mention this before but the value here is absolutely on UVA. We realize Tech is on a great run but our numbers had this game at -3.5 in favor of Virginia. If we play this on the money line that a full possession+ of value. Here’s one way to look at it. In the Elite 8 Texas Tech was a 5-point underdog vs Gonzaga and on Saturday they were a 2.5 point dog vs Michigan State. Now UVA is only laying 1 to 1.5 points? The Cavs are better than both of the previous teams we mentioned in our power ratings and others (Ken Pom). But because UVA has had some tight wins and Tech has now covered 8 of their last 9 games and the oddsmakers almost have no choice but to set this lower than it should be. Even with the number off in favor of Virginia, almost 60% of the bets have come in on Tech because most bettors remember what they see most recently. The fact is the Cavs have been the better team the entire season. Much is made of Tech’s defense, which is great (#1 in efficiency), but let’s not pretend they have a huge edge on that side of the court vs Virginia. The Cavs defense ranks 5th in efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense, and 3rd in 3 point FG% defense. So on that end, these teams are very close in our opinion. Offensively, however, Virginia has a fairly significant season long edge. They rank 3rd in offensive efficiency (Tech is 28th), 19th in eFG% (Tech is 55th) and 9th in 3 point FG% (Tech is 66th). A key situation that’s not being talked about very much is the health of the Red Raiders Tariq Owens. This 6’10 shot blocker is one of the top interior defenders in the nation and he is nowhere close to 100%. He was in a boot on Sunday and while we expect him to try and play, we can’t imagine he’ll be all that effective. If he’s not in the game much tonight, that’s a huge edge to the Cavaliers. Again, this comes back to where the number should be and where it is. This number, as we said above, is set at Virginia -1 or -1.5. We are playing this one on the money line at -120 (some are at -125). That would be our recommendation as we simply need Virginia to win.
|04-06-19||Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2.5||Top||61-51||Loss||-105||28 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET
We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans. Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so. However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State. We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here. If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite. So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans. Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency). However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke. We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense. We do give MSU a decent edge offensively. They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%. The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga. The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part. They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%. Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed. We expect MSU to shoot better in this game. Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here. They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games. We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities. While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game. The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005. While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech. Those teams usually don’t move on. In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever. Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999). We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game. Take the Spartans on Saturday.
|04-04-19||Lipscomb +1.5 v. Texas||Top||66-81||Loss||-105||24 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Lipscomb +1.5 over Texas, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
From a straight value perspective, Lipscomb is definitely worth a look here. They are +1.5 in this game vs Texas. For comparison’s sake, the Longhorns were +1.5 on Tuesday when they faced TCU here at Madison Square Garden. Looking at power ratings (Ken Pom) Lipscomb is actually rated as a better team than TCU (#39 while TCU is #43). That tells us this number should be similar to Tuesday’s TCU – Texas game but it’s a full 3-point difference. We were on Texas on Tuesday as we felt the situation was perfect. The Horns were in revenge mode vs their Big 12 and in state rival after losing at home to TCU just a few weeks earlier in their regular season finale. The loss by the Horns pretty much eliminated them from any at large bid consideration for the NCAA. That gave UT some major motivation on Tuesday and they handled TCU winning by 14. The Frogs shot as poorly as they have in a long time making only 28% of their shots and just 19% from beyond the arc. While this is now the NIT Championship game, don’t be surprised if Texas is a bit flat vs no-name Lipscomb. The Horns had their big game on Tuesday. On the other hand, this is a program changing game for Lipscomb. They have proven more than worthy to be here winning ALL of their NIT games on the road (@ Davidson, @ UNC Greensboro, and @ NC State). Texas played all of their NIT games at home until Tuesday’s neutral court match up with TCU. Speaking of TCU, on a sidenote this Lipscomb team beat TCU by 9 on the road earlier this year. Back to this game…We don’t expect the Longhorns to shut down Lipscomb’s offense as they did with TCU a few days ago. That’s because the Bisons shoot well from every level (21st nationally in eFG%) and make nearly 76% of their FT’s as well. Defensively the Bisons are very good at defending the 3 point line (allowing 32% which is 47th nationally) which is a good match up for them here as Texas shoot a lot of 3’s. The Horns pick up almost 37% of their points from beyond the arc which is 61st most nationally. If they struggle from 3, which they could here vs this defense, they are in trouble. Lipscomb is a veteran team with 5 upperclassmen in the starting line up. They went to the NCAA last year and lost in UNC. These upperclassmen have been very successful with a 72-30 record over the last 3 seasons. Also keep in mind, this team was favored by 6-points in the Atlantic Sun Championship game but lost to Liberty. That’s the same Liberty team that beat Mississippi State in round one of the Big Dance and then gave Va Tech all they could handle in the round of 32. Taking on a below .500 Big 12 team (in conference play) in a potential letdown spot is worth a long look. We like Lipscomb to win the NIT Championship.
|04-02-19||Texas +1.5 v. TCU||Top||58-44||Win||100||30 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas +1.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET
Our power ratings have Texas favored by 1 point on a neutral court so the line value is with the Horns in our opinion. On top of that, this is a double revenge spot for Texas who lost both games to TCU this year. They lost a tight game on the road 65-61 back in January. They then lost a huge home game to TCU just a few weeks ago, a game they really needed if they wanted a chance for an at large NCAA tourney bid. The Horns blew it at home shooting just37% while allowing TCU to make 54% of their shots. Worse yet, Texas shot just 21% from behind the arc while the Frogs made over 50% of their 3-pointers. Just an all around poor shooting effort for the Longhorns. Also make note, the Horns top player, Kerwin Roach, did not play in that regular season finale vs TCU but has since come back to score 8, 12, 21, and 14 points since that loss. UT was 1-4 during Roach’s 5-game suspension and they are 3-1 since he came back with their only loss to Kansas in the Big 12 tourney. Roach will be in the line up on Tuesday. Also note that Texas was favored by 7 in that meeting just a few weeks ago and now they are an underdog on a neutral court which is a huge over adjustment in just a few weeks time. After that loss, Texas head coach Shaka Smart was fairly blunt and straight to the point. "I've never been as disappointed as I am right now," said Smart, who is 66-65 overall at Texas, and 31-41 in the Big 12. "I know our players are a better than they played today, I know we're a better team than we played today. It doesn't matter, you've got to go do it." The Longhorns had no idea they’d get another shot at TCU and we expect them to play with an emotional edge here. Both teams come in having won all 3 of their NIT games at home. Despite their two losses to TCU, the Longhorns were the better team all season long. They have a higher power rating, they finished with a better Big 12 record, they were better both offensively and defensively in efficiency (Big 12 games). If it’s a tight game late and comes down to FT’s the Horns made 75.6% of their freebies on conference play while TCU made just 68%. Texas was close to having a much better record than 8-10 in the Big 12 as 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less. TCU, on the other hand, finished 7-11 in league play and 7 of their 11 losses came by 9 points or more. We definitely feel Texas is the better team and with the added motivation we expect them to get the win on Tuesday night.
|03-31-19||Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke||Top||68-67||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5 PM ET
Duke really shouldn’t be here. They’ve had back to back games go to the wire and each time their opponent (UCF & Va Tech) have missed layups at the buzzer to either win or tie. Now they face a veteran MSU team that is better than both of those opponents and has won their first 3 tourney games by an average of 16 PPG. Sparty has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 2 points. While Michigan State is peaking right now, we’re not so sure we can say the same about Duke. They are 9-3 their last 12 games and nearly half of those wins (4) have come by 2 points or less. Looking at season long numbers a strong argument could be made that the Spartans are simply a better team overall. They are definitely a better shooting team ranking 13th in eFG% while Duke ranks 52nd in that category. The Spartans are the much better 3-point shooting team making 38% from beyond the arc (21st nationally) compared to just 30% for Duke (329th nationally). They also make 75% of their FT’s compared to Duke’s 68%. Defensively they are much closer with MSU ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense while Duke ranks 9th in that category. Rebounding edge also goes to Michigan State with a +9.5 rebounding margin compared to Duke’s sitting at +6.0. MSU is great on the offensive boards (21st) while Duke struggles on the defensive boards (240th). The Devils will also potentially be without their 3rd leading scorer, Cam Reddish, who has a bad knee and will be a game time decision. This one also falls into the same system we had yesterday with Texas Tech. Elite 8 underdogs of +4.5 or less who are also the lower seed are now 20-8 SU and 19-7-1 ATS dating back to 2003. Our power ratings have this game even so getting 2-points is some solid value.
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Purdue, Saturday at 8:49 PM ET
Purdue has simply shot the lights out the last 2 games beating Villanova & Tennessee and shooting 54% from the field in the process. They’ve hit a ridiculous 31 of 61 from 3 point range for 51%. Even with that performance, they needed a stupid foul by UT on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and then OT to beat the Vols. Can they keep that red hot shooting in tact here? We highly doubt it. After facing 2 decent but not great defenses (UT ranked 42 in defensive efficiency & Nova ranked 81st) the Boilers now face a defense that definitely can slow them down. UVA ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 5th in eFG% defense, and 2nd in 3-point FG% defense. Purdue lives beyond the arc and now they face a team that allows their opponents to make just 28% on the season. No way Purdue continues their 50% barrage from deep here. UVA has kind of done the opposite. While Purdue has needed huge offensive performances to move on, the Cavs have not played very well offensively yet they continue to win. On Thursday they shot just 35% overall and a very poor 27% from 3-point range, yet still beat a red hot Oregon team by 4 points. This UVA team is definitely capable of breaking out offensive as they rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency, 20th in eFG%, and 7th in 3-point FG%. They may just break out here vs a Purdue defense that allowed Tennessee to make 50% of their shots on Thursday. If Virginia gets their offense going here, we think they will, we don’t see how Purdue can win this game. This is a bad match up for
|03-30-19||Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga||Top||75-69||Win||100||23 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas Tech +4.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET
What a match up we have in this one. It’s the #1 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Gonzaga) vs the #1 defense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Texas Tech). We like the top defense to keep this very close so we’ll take the points. We were on Florida State +8 vs Gonzaga on Thursday as we felt the Noles defense would slow down the Zags while doing enough offensively to keep it close. Well we were half right as FSU held Gonzaga to just 40% shooting. The problem was, the Seminoles shot just 39% and make only 3 of their 20 three point attempts (15%). The game ended with the Zags winning 72-58, however it was much closer than that. It was actually just a 4-point lead for Gonzaga with less than 3:30 remaining and FSU went on to make only 1 of their final 7 shots. The Seminoles also started fouling with 2:00 minutes remaining leading to 7 points from the FT for Gonzaga in the final minutes. If Gonzaga struggled offensive vs FSU they will definitely have problems against Tech. The Red Raiders held a very good Michigan team to only 44 points on 32% shooting on Thursday on their way to a 19 point blowout win. They are playing fantastic basketball winning by margins of 15, 20, and 19 points in the Big Dance. They have covered the spread by more than 40 points in those 3 games combined. They have held those 3 opponents (Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, and Michigan) to just 35% combined shooting. Gonzaga simply isn’t accustomed to facing top notch defensive teams in the WCC and it showed on Thursday vs FSU. We expect Tech’s offense, which has shot 48% in the tourney, to cause some problems for the Zags. Tech also falls into a very strong historical spot here. Since 2003, Elite 8 underdogs of 4.5 points or more and if they are the lower seed are 17-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%)! That falls right on Texas Tech in this one. We think Tech has a great shot to win so we’ll take the points.
|03-29-19||Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 143||Top||73-75||Loss||-110||6 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 143 Points - Duke vs Virginia Tech, Friday at 9:40 PM ET
These two played a few weeks ago and the total was set at 143. They went over by 6 points with Va Tech winning 77-72. Even with that, this total opened 145 and has been bet down to 143 which is telling. If you look closely at their only meeting a few weeks ago, both teams played lights out offensively with VT averaging 1.21 PPP and Duke averaging 1.14 PPG. Both teams shot 62% inside the arc and they combined to make 38 free throws so a lot of clocked stopped, free points. Even with that the game was still at 143 (73-70) with 20 seconds remaining in the game. Va Tech (332nd in tempo) made sure it was a slow paced game as each team had just 50 FG attempts. Expect the same tonight as the Hokies know they can’t get into a running game with Duke and expect to win. The Devils shoot very few 3’s and they are poor shooting team from deep (30% from 3) so they won’t have many threes. Va Tech does like shooting 3’s but they are playing a Duke defense that allows only 29.8% from beyond the arc this season so don’t expect the Hokies to light it up from deep. Neither team fouls very much so we don’t expect 38 made FT’s as they had a few weeks ago. These teams, both being in the ACC, know each other very well and have gone UNDER the total in 14 of their last 17 meetings. Duke has now gone under the total at a rate of 24-10-2 this year and going back further they are 36-17-2 to the UNDER their last 55 games. These two are also playing their first game in Capital One Arena in Washington DC so unfamiliar surroundings could lead to a rough shooting night as well. Two very good defenses (Duke 6th in defensive efficiency & VT 19th) and a slow paced game add up to an UNDER play tonight.
|03-28-19||Purdue v. Tennessee -1||Top||99-94||Loss||-115||6 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee -1 over Purdue, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET
We were on UT last weekend and they jumped all over Iowa and at one point had a 25-point lead and they were up 21 at half. The Vols came out in the 2nd half and were tentative and absolutely played to protect the lead rather than staying aggressive. They went on to beat Iowa by 6 in OT and we’re pretty sure they learned their lesson. Tonight if they get a lead, which we expect them to do, we do not look for them to back off. They are facing a Purdue team that is very efficient offensively (5th in the country) but relies way too heavily on 1-player as we’ve discussed in the past. Carsen Edwards has taken nearly 35% of Purdue’s shots this season and 41% of their shots thus far in the NCAA tourney. If he is off, this team is in trouble. He was not off in their most recent game last weekend as the Boilers plastered Villanova with Edwards scoring 42 points on 21 shot attempts. He was struggling heading into that game shooting just 27% overall his previous 4 games. Tennessee has a number of athletic defenders they can run at Edwards so we expect him to struggle a bit in this one. As good as the Boilers are on offense, the Vols are better. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted efficiency and 21st in eFG%, both better than Purdue. They are much tougher to guard with 5 players averaging more than 10 PPG which is the opposite of Purdue. While the Boilers rely on making 3-pointers, the Vols are one of the top interior teams in the country with 55% of their points coming from inside the arc (25th nationally) and they make nearly 56% of their 2-pointers (20th nationally). Sometimes deep shooting doesn’t travel quite as well so we trust a team that will be more reliable inside the arc. If Purdue is red hot from 3 and Edwards goes off, UT is in trouble. We don’t expect that to happen so we’ll side with Tennessee to win this one.
|03-27-19||Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 163||Top||87-92||Win||100||7 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 163 Points - Coastal Carolina @ DePaul, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET
Two red hot offensive teams going at it tonight in Chicago. DePaul loves playing at home where they average 81 PPG on 48% shooting. They are one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 49th in offensive efficiency and 74th in eFG%. In their last 4 home games the Demons have scored 92, 101, 100, and 97 points. We expect more of the same tonight as they face a Coastal Carolina team that is allowing 79 PPG on the road this season. DePaul loves to play fast (69th in tempo) and CC will do the same (77th in tempo). Not only does Coastal play fast, they can score in bunches as well. They average 77 PPG on the season and they’ve topped 90 in 4 of their last 8 games. They are coming off a game @ WVU in which they put up 109 points which was the most every vs a Bob Huggins team. They also allowed the Mountaineers to score 91 so the defense was far from stellar. CC should have very good success tonight offensively against a DePaul team that was the worst defense in the Big East this year ranking 282nd nationally in eFG% defense. The Blue Demons have allowed 85 PPG over their last 10 games with all but 2 of those opponents topping 80 points. Both teams played on Monday so a 48 hour turnaround will only make these defenses worse in our opinion. This line sits at DePaul -8 which suggests a final score of 86-78 or right in that range. We like both teams to surpass their projected score for tonight and we like the OVER.
|03-26-19||Florida International v. Green Bay OVER 176.5||Top||68-98||Loss||-109||21 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 176.5 points - FIU @ UW Green Bay, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
Two of the fastest paced teams in the nation and two terrible defenses lead to a high scoring track meet in this one. FIU is #1 in the nation in tempo getting a shot up every 14 seconds! UWGB is far behind as they rank 10th in tempo hoisting a shot an average of every 14.8 seconds. Both defenses are terrible with UWGB ranking 340th in scoring defense (out of 351 teams) and FIU ranks 337th. The Phoenix rank 284th in eFG% defense and FIU ranks 276th in the same category. On offense, Green Bay has scored 80+ points in 11 of their 15 home games this season and FIU allows more PPG (81 PPG overall / 86 PPG on the road) than any defense GB has faced this season. The same can be said for FIU. The worst scoring defense they have faced this season will be UWGB (82 PPG allowed). These two have each played one game in the CIT thus far with FIU beating Texas State 87-81 and UWGB topping East Tennessee State 102-94. Both high scoring games combining to go OVER by 55 points, yet the opponents were much different. Each were slow paced teams with much better defenses yet they still put up big numbers offensively. Texas State is ranked 305th in tempo and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. ETSU ranks 203rd in efficiency and 112th in defensive efficiency. We like both teams to get to 90 points here which would send it OVER the total.
|03-24-19||Liberty v. Virginia Tech -8.5||Top||58-67||Win||100||6 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Virginia Tech -8.5 over Liberty, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET
We think the line value is on Va Tech here. The power rating difference between Va Tech & Liberty is in the exact same range as the difference between Duke vs UCF along with UNC vs Washington. While those spreads sit at -13 and -12 respectively, the Hokies are laying only 9. We used Va Tech vs St Louis in the first round and the Hokies were up 40-18 at half but got complacent in the 2nd stanza and won by 14. We mentioned in that analysis we feel VT is underrated. They rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are one of only 8 teams that can make that claim and the other 7 teams are all #1 or #2 seeds. Liberty trailed for much of their opener vs Miss State but made a bunch of 3’s late for their comeback 4-point win, which was their largest lead of the game. They are facing an MSU defense that isn’t great and they are terrible at defending the 3 (254th nationally) so it was a solid match up for the Liberty offense. They won’t have nearly as much success today vs a very athletic and active VT zone defense. Tech also received a huge boost on Friday when starting PG and leader Justin Robinson returned after missing 12 straight games to end the season. Robinson gave them a solid 28 minutes (9 points) and should play even better today with a game under his belt. Liberty got their big comeback win on Friday, their first every tourney win. Today we think they are in big trouble vs a VaTech team that is the best team they’ve played this season. Similar to what happened to Murray State yesterday (we were on FSU in that game) we see a potential blowout here. Take Va Tech.
|03-24-19||Iowa v. Tennessee -7.5||Top||77-83||Loss||-111||13 h 7 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-7.5) over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET
We played against Iowa on Friday vs Cincinnati and it looked great early on as Cincy jumped out to a 13 point first half lead. The Bearcats still led by 5 at halftime and then Iowa shot the lights out in the 2nd half. For the game the Hawkeyes shot almost 55% including 11 three pointers. The Hawks don’t score all that effectively inside (46% of their points – 281st nationally) and Tennessee is great defensively inside the arc allowing teams to shoot just 44% (14th nationally). That means Iowa better be making their 3’s again to stay in this game and we just don’t see them shooting like that again vs this talented Tennessee team. Let’s not forget that the Vols could have easily been a #1 seed and they were ranked #1 in the nation for much of the season. This line does not reflect that as they are laying just -8 vs an Iowa team that sans their performance yesterday, simply wasn’t playing well losing 6 of their previous 8 games, with 4 of those 6 losses coming by double digits. The Vols can score from all levels as they are very good inside the arc but have shooters that can score from deep. They prefer to score inside which turns into a terrible match up for Iowa’s defense. UT hits 56% of their shots from 2-point land (19th nationally) and they score 56% of their points inside the arc (20th nationally). Iowa’s interior defense has been poor all season as they allow opponents to make almost 54% of their shots inside the 3-point line (309th nationally). The Vols should feast inside and as we said they are more than capable from deep as well making 36% of their 3’s. They also make 77% of their FT’s so if they get to the line they will take advantage there as well. UT is better offensively (3rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) and much better defensively. Iowa had their out of the ordinary shooting game on Friday and they come back to earth here. That leads to a double digit win for UT.
|03-23-19||Villanova +4 v. Purdue||Top||61-87||Loss||-109||22 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Villanova +4 over Purdue, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET
Our power rating has Purdue favored by 2 in this game so we feel we’re getting a full possession of value. We went against the Boilers on Thursday and missed by a half point. ODU was +12.5 in that game, trailed by 9 with 4:00 remaining and made one shot the rest of the way losing by 13. We still contend Purdue is overrated right now. They didn’t play great down the stretch losing twice to Minnesota and playing a number of close games on the road down the stretch losing @ Maryland and barely beating Indiana & Nebraska. The Boilers rely way too heavily on one guy. Carsen Edwards. He took 611 shots leading into last night’s game where he was 7 for 23 (30%). He shooting just barely over 25% his last 4 games combined as he is clearly wearing down. The problem with Thursday’s game is ODU is a poor shooting team and they struggled to score so they could not take advantage of Edward’s struggles. We thought it would be a very low scoring game and ODU could keep it within the 12.5 points which they almost did despite shooting just 26% for the game and 24% from beyond the arc. Purdue won’t get that luxury with Nova. The Boiler defense goes from defending the 240th most efficient offense to the 16th most efficient with Villanova. Both teams shoot a lot of 3’s and both shoot them pretty well. Nova defends the arc better which should help here. The Cats are more balanced and led by 2 seniors (Booth & Paschall) who started on last year’s National Championship team. They are led by possibly the best coach in college basketball, Jay Wright who’s won 2 of the last 3 National Championships, and you can bet they’ll be prepared here. This team knows how to get it done at tourney time and we think they’ll win this game outright. Take the points.
|03-23-19||Murray State v. Florida State -4.5||Top||62-90||Win||100||20 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida State -4.5 over Murray State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
The value is absolutely on FSU here. They are favored by 4.5 to 5 which is the same number Marquette was favored over Murray State. FSU power rates to the 16th best team nationally while Marquette is 31st. The Eagles were faltering at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 coming into the Dance. Because people saw what Murray did to an overrated Marquette team, they are now the talk of the town. FSU is a different animal. While Marquette had nobody that could guard Ja Morant, the Noles have plenty of big perimeter defenders with all starters measuring 6’4 or taller. Not only are they big (12th tallest team in the nation) they defend very well (11th nationally in defensive efficiency). This will be the best defense the Racers have faced this season. Don’t expect them to shoot 53% from the field as they did they did the other night vs a Marquette defense that had no chance to contain Morant. FSU can get it done offensively as well (32nd in offensive efficiency) with 7 players that average between 7 PPG and 13 PPG. The Noles should control the boards as well in this one. They are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation while Murray ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding. Not that FSU needed any extra motivation but they have it here. One of the leaders, Phil Cofer who is currently injured, lost his father on Thursday after their win and you can guarantee this team will play as hard as they have all season on Saturday. Murray State is a very nice story but to give you an idea of where they stand, based on power ratings, they would be the 10th best team in the ACC, just behind Syracuse. They had a nice win on Thursday which was a perfect situation for them playing a faltering team with nobody to slow down Morant. FSU is a different animal and we like the Noles to roll here.
|03-22-19||St. Louis v. Virginia Tech -10||Top||52-66||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET
This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney. The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in. First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned. They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days. They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%). Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games. Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses. Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally. The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG. They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury. He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates. With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range. We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here. Take Virginia Tech tonight.
|03-22-19||Iona v. North Carolina UNDER 166.5||Top||73-88||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 166.5 Points - Iona vs North Carolina, Friday at 9:20 PM ET
We see this game playing out very much like yesterday’s game between Gonzaga and Farleigh Dickinson. It was a game the Zags jumped out big and led 53-17 at halftime. In the 2nd half with a large lead, the Zags shut it down and coasted to an 87-49 win (146 points). FDU really struggled to score against the longer, more athletic Zags. We see Iona having the same problem here. If the Gaels were a prolific 3-point shooting team or really good shooting team period, then we wouldn’t be on this under. But the fact is, Iona was an average shooting team in a bad defensive conference. They rank 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage. That’s in an MAAC that was terrible defensively with 9 of their 11 teams ranking 200 or lower in defensive efficiency. Now Iona faces a UNC defense that ranks 10th nationally in that category. We feel Iona will struggle to get good shots and struggle to score in this game. UNC will score and they’ll run. That’s what they do. However, that’s what Gonzaga likes to do as well and you saw how that game turned out. UNC could score 50 or more by halftime but the in the 2nd half we look for them to slow the game down a bit, substitute players, and make sure they are fresh for Sunday, similar to what the Zags did yesterday. We don’t think Iona gets to 70 in this game. We look for low 60’s based on our numbers. If that happens UNC has to get to 100 for this to have a chance. Even if the Heels keep the pressure on, which we can’t imagine they will, and get to 95, Iona would have to get to 72 to get this game over the number. We just don’t see that happening. With UNC favored by 22 the oddsmakers see this score around 94-72. We think neither team reaches that number. Take the UNDER.
|03-22-19||Georgia State v. Houston UNDER 142||Top||55-84||Win||100||24 h 56 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 142 Points - Georgia State vs Houston, Friday at 7:20 PM ET
This play is backed by a longtime trend that involves a #3/#14 seed which is 12-30 to the Under the last 42 times it’s applied. This Houston Cougars team isn’t the Phi Slama Jama team of the early 80’s, that was built on transition and outscoring opponents. This Cougars team is tenacious defensively with the 13th overall defensive efficiency rating and the #1 EFG% defense. Houston is the 2nd best team in nation in defending the 3-point shot and 5th against 2-pointers. The Cougars also protect the rim with a team that ranks 20th in the country in block percentage. On the year Houston held opponents to just 36.7% shooting and 61.2PPG. Georgia State allowed 1.026 points per possession this year which is above average by national standards, but it was their D late in the season which has us excited for this Under. In their last five games the Panthers have held opponents to just 37% shooting and an average of 65PPG. And three of those five games came against the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is an efficiency conference overall that likes to play fast. In their two Sun Belt tourney games the Panthers combined for just 105 points with Texas State and 137 with UT Arlington. The bet here is UNDER the total.
|03-22-19||Arizona State +5 v. Buffalo||Top||74-91||Loss||-110||21 h 47 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET
We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt. The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points. We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in. They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented. If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1. They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG. We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney. They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league. The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT. The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process. The MAC is proving us correct thus far. The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette. Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12. Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11. The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40. Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS! We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on. Take the points.
|03-22-19||Iowa v. Cincinnati -3.5||Top||79-72||Loss||-109||17 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET
We love this match up for Cincy. The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston. They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record. They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish. Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch. It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February. They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game. We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here. Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense. Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively. Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games. That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP. Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again. The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding. This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away. Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league. It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney. The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding. They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one.
|03-21-19||Old Dominion +12.5 v. Purdue||Top||48-61||Loss||-104||25 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET
ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games. ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%. While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number. This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION
|03-21-19||St. Mary's v. Villanova UNDER 131||Top||57-61||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 131 Points - St Marys vs Villanova, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET
St Mary’s won WCC tourney by beating Gonzaga 60-47. Nova won the Big East tourney winning their 3 games by margins of 11, 4 in OT, and 2 points. Zags averaged 90 PPG on the season and St Mary’s held them to 69 & 47 points their final 2 meetings of the season. Gaels held 6 of their final 8 opponents to 65 points or less and they play very slow ranking #347 in tempo out of 351 teams. Villanova plays very slow as well (#333 in tempo) so not many possessions in this game. Nova relies heavily on the 3-point shot with almost 43% of their points coming from beyond the arc (9th most nationally). The Gaels defend the 3 well so that should make it tough on Nova's offense. Neither team fouls very much so we don't expect many points from the charity stripe in this game. Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers and both protect the ball well offensively so we won't see many steals and run outs here. We expect this game to be a grinder with the winner scoring in the low 60's. UNDER is the play.
|03-21-19||Florida +2.5 v. Nevada||Top||70-61||Win||100||22 h 57 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET
This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo). This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree. A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team. The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall. They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida). The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating). They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation. Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion. Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season. Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%. Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub. Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney. They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference. Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking. Take the Gators
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette OVER 149||Top||83-64||Loss||-115||25 h 5 m||Show|
OVER 149.5 Murray State vs Marquette, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET (Hartford, CT)
Murray State can score as they average 81 PPG. Guard Ja Morant will be a first round NBA pick and he is averaging 24 PPG. He’s not the only Racer that can score as they have 3 others that average more than 10 PPG. You’d think with good guard play Murray State shoots a lot of 3’s but they don’t. They score almost 54% of their points inside the arc which is 60th nationally. They also shoot 57% inside the arc which is the 2nd best percentage in the nation. Marquette is the opposite. They shoot a lot of 3’s and they make them at a 39.3% clip (9th nationally). Markus Howard, the Hauser brothers, and Sacar Anim ALL shoot over 40% from deep. They struggle to score inside with most of those points coming off 3-point misses. Murray State’s defense looks like they match up well as they give up only 28% from beyond the arc which is good for 4th best nationally. However, that might be exaggerated due to their easy schedule (270TH) which also plays a part in their inflated defensive efficiency numbers of .987 points per possession. Murray State ranks 97th in tempo or pace and get a shot up every 16.4 seconds which is 64th. Marquette is 119th in tempo and get a field goal attempt every 16.9 seconds for 96th. Both teams are top 50 in EFG% offense meaning they don’t need a lot of attempts to efficiently score. It all adds up to an EASY OVER!
|03-21-19||Bradley v. Michigan State UNDER 134||Top||65-76||Loss||-105||19 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 134 Points - Bradley vs Michigan State, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET
After starting the conference season 0-5, Bradley rallied and finished in 5th place in the MVC this year with a 9-9 record. They won the MVC tourney winning 3 games in 3 days last weekend, 2 of those as an underdog. The Braves scored just 61, 53, and 57 points in those 3 and were able to win all 3. Scoring has been a problem for Bradley scoring just 66 PPG this season finishing 8th in the 10 team league. This team hasn’t gotten to 70 points since February 9th. Braves play very slow (#299 in tempo) and rely on their defense which was #1 in the Missouri Valley in eFG% defense. Bradley will have a tough time getting their offense moving in the right direction vs MSU defense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in eFG% defense. It’s easily the best defense Bradley has faced this year. To give you an idea, the top rated defense in the MVC is Loyola and they rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency, basically 90 spots below Michigan State. Only 1 of MSU’s last 11 opponents has topped 70 points. This should be a grinder and UNDER is the play.
|03-20-19||Arizona State -1.5 v. St. John's||Top||74-65||Win||100||6 h 30 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State -2 over St Johns, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET
These two were heading in opposite directions down the stretch. ASU won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of red hot Oregon who has now won and covered 8 games in a row. The Devils played the Ducks tougher than anyone on the Pac 12 tourney losing by 4 in overtime. That’s rather impressive as the Ducks beat all of their other 3 opponents in the Pac 12 tourney by double digits including beating regular season champ Washington by 20 points. They were also the much more consistent team this year finishing alone in 2nd in the Pac 12 with a 12-6 record. St Johns, on the other hand, is sitting in this position mainly due to their 14-1 start to the season. That gave them quite a buffer and they needed it as they went 7-11 the rest of the way. The Johnnies have lost 5 of their last 7 games including setbacks at the hands of DePaul, Providence, and Xavier (twice) all non-NCAA tourney teams. Their top scoring guard Ponds is shooting only 42% from the field his last 5 games and it looks to us like he is starting to wear down after carrying the load for much of the season. Ponds is a slight 6’1 and 175 pounds and the physical Big East has taken it’s toll. He’s been held below his scoring average (20 PPG) in 7 of the last 9 games. ASU gets to the line as much as any team in this tourney with over 22% of their points this year coming from the charity stripe (21st nationally). That’s bad news for St Johns as they foul A LOT. Expect the Sun Devils to live at the foul line tonight. Another huge advantage for ASU will be on the boards ranking 38th nationally in rebound margin compared to the Johnnies who are 337th in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities in this game. In a potential close game if ASU can get some extra shot attempts up due to their rebounding advantage and end up at the FT line more often, that will make a huge difference. ASU was in this play in game last year and lost to Syracuse so a little extra motivation for them along with the familiarity of playing in this situation. The Johnnies haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2000 and they may just be happy to be here. Lay the small number with Arizona State.
|03-19-19||Hofstra +9.5 v. NC State||Top||78-84||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Hofstra +9.5 over NC State - Tuesday at 7 PM ET on ESPN2
You have to wonder what NC State’s motivation level will be here? They were expecting to get into the Big Dance and their Athletic Director was complaining after the snub. Keep in mind they were in the NCAA tourney last year so it will be tough for the returning players to get overly excited about the NIT. We’re guessing the mindset of the Wolfpack players tonight won’t be great. There is more to it than that however. This is a dangerous match up for NC State. Hofstra is a very good team that finished the season 27-7 and at one point during the season won 16 consecutive games. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is excited to be playing a Power 5 team in the opening round. Hofstra is a very good offensive team scoring 83 PPG which makes it very tough to blow this team out. Only 2 of their 7 losses came by more than 10 points and their worst loss of the year was a 14 point setback. They shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG% and 12th in 3-point FG%. They get to the line a lot with over 21% of their points coming from the charity stripe and when they do they hit 80% as a team (2nd best in the nation). Hofstra also protects the ball very well turning it over only 14% of the time which is the 4th fewest in the country. That’s a bad mix for an NC State defense that pressures the ball, thrives on turnovers, and fouls a lot. The Wolpack weren’t a great home team this year losing 4 games while Hofstra is comfortable on the road where they were 12-6 this year (away & neutral). This game is being played at Reynolds Coliseum which is actually not the normal home court for NC State but home to the women’s basketball program. The men only played one game here this year and that was way back on Dec 5th. We like Hofstra to give NC State all they can handle tonight and easily cover this spread.
|03-17-19||Michigan +1 v. Michigan State||Top||60-65||Loss||-110||4 h 45 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET
MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game. These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title. The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control. “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game. MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten. That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome. Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one. In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings. We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions. MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%. Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27. Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here. MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half. Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes. The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here. We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season. We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship.
|03-16-19||Western Kentucky -1 v. Old Dominion||Top||56-62||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year
We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely. They are a team that if motivated is very good. They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia. They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle. Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential. This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated. One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11. USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19). ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long. They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting. Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost. They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1. ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game! Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining! ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining. Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both. However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games. Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4. Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3. Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off. There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st. Take Western Kentucky.
|03-15-19||Colorado +3.5 v. Washington||Top||61-66||Loss||-110||3 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year
This line looks like a trap to us. The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th? Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above. We like Colorado here. Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team. Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those. The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games. Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT. Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8. During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford). Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field. The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They are confident and dangerous right now. Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight.
|03-15-19||Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 127||Top||62-66||Loss||-110||4 h 22 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 127 Points - Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Friday at 3 PM ET
This is a low number for a total but we don’t expect these two to get there. Nebraska is playing their 3rd game in 3 days so shooting legs will be an issue. They are a very thin team with only 6 scholarship players remaining. The Huskers were already a slow paced team but due to their limited numbers they have gone very slow in this tourney with just 105 and 101 shot attempts (both teams combined) in their first two games in this tourney. They’ve totaled 128 & 130 in those games and now they face the slowest paced team and the top defense in the Big Ten so we expect lower numbers than the first two games today. We had a winner on the UNDER yesterday in the Nebraska – Maryland game as they scored 129 but that was very deceiving as the game was on pace to score less than 115 for much of the game. They combined for 52 points in the final 10:00 minutes and it still only reached 130. Wisconsin will be playing their first game in this tourney so we look for them to struggle shooting the ball at the United Center. The Badgers have gone 12 straight games without scoring 70 points in regulation and we don’t expect it here. The Nebraska defense has held their first 2 opponents in this tourney to 61 points each so we anticipate mid 60’s at best for Wisconsin. The UW defense has held their Big Ten opponents to just 60 PPG (first in the conference) and we’d be shocked in the Huskers got out of the 50’s in this game. Wisconsin’s defense has not allowed more than 67 points in ANY of their last 15 games (in regulation) and over half of those opponents (8) did not top 60 points. In their lone meeting this year @ Nebraska, the oddmakers set the total at 128 which is nearly where we sit here in a much different circumstance. The Huskers were full strength in that game and it was in at Pinnacle Arena which is much more conducive to shooting well. Even with that the two combined to score only 113 combined points. We would lean Wisconsin in this game but with the spread sitting at -8 currently, that could be a bit dangerous in a low scoring game. We feel the UNDER is the much better way to go here.
|03-14-19||Penn State -2 v. Minnesota||Top||72-77||Loss||-109||24 h 10 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -2 over Minnesota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
We’ll ride the red hot team here and that is Penn State. There is a reason the Nittany Lions with a record of 14-17 are favored over a Minnesota team that is 19-12 and fighting for an NCAA bid. PSU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 winning 7 of 10 down the stretch after starting the conference season 0-10. Even when they lost their first 10 conference games they were very competitive for the most part with 7 of those losses coming by 7 points or less or in OT. They tied for 10th in conference play but they are power rated as the 6th best team in the Big Ten behind only Michigan St, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland. PSU’s only losses since February 1st came @ Ohio State by 4 back when the Buckeyes were actually still playing fairly well, @ Purdue who won the Big 10, and @ Wisconsin by 4. They’ve been fantastic defensively down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to just 63 PPG on 38% shooting. They held all 5 of those opponents to 1.00 point per possession or less which is simply great defense. That defense will be a problem for a Minnesota offense that is shooting barely 40% of their last 5 games and averaged only 60 PPG in road games this season. Unlike the surging Lions, Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games down the stretch. They are currently in the Big Dance in most projections but the Gophs do have some pressure on them to not go out right away in the Big 10 tourney giving the committee a reason to possibly leave them out. PSU is playing loose and with house money. These two met once this season in Minnesota when Penn State was in the midst of their 10 game losing streak. Despite that the Lions almost won on the road losing 65-64 blowing an 11 point second half lead. PSU is playing much better than they were at that time while Minnesota has dropped a notch. They have one of the top players in the league with Lamar Stevens (20 PPG) who is very tough to guard inside the paint. He should eat up a Minnesota defense that ranks 12th in the Big Ten at defending inside the arc allowing 50% shooting by opponents. Penn State gets the win and cover here.
|03-14-19||Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 135||Top||69-61||Win||100||4 h 50 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135 Points - Nebraska vs Maryland, Thursday at 3 PM ET
We were a bit unlucky with our UNDER play in the Big Ten last night as Northwestern vs Illinois landed on 122 on regulation (we had UNDER 135.5) but went over the total in overtime. The other Big Ten game yesterday (Nebraska vs Rutgers) totaled 129 to both games failed to reach 130 in regulation. As we stated yesterday, the United Center is a tough venue for shooting, especially when teams have not played here. The last 2 times Chicago hosted the Big Ten tourney the average points scored were 121 and 133. Nebraska shot just 40% yesterday vs Rutgers and made only 3 of 15 from beyond the arc. Today the thin Huskers (just 6 players played 10+ minutes) face a much tougher Maryland defense that is very long inside. The Huskers will have massive problems scoring inside due to the Terps length which means they’ll have to make 3’s which is tough in this venue. On top of that the Huskers aren’t a good 3 point shooting team in general hitting just 32% in Big Ten play this year (9th in the conference). NU benefitted yesterday from going to the line 32 times and making 23 which won’t happen today. Maryland will slow this game down (13th in the Big Ten in tempo) and we anticipate they’ll struggle shooting in their first game at the UC. The Terps aren’t a high scoring team to begin with and playing here won’t change that. Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 70-65 type game. Here’s the problem, Maryland has scored more than 70 points only ONCE in their last 12 games. This is the third time these two have faced each other this year so they are very familiar with each other which will make it tough to score. In their first meeting they totaled 142 points but combined to shoot 47% overall and 43% from beyond the arc. In their most recent meeting they totaled just 105 in a 60-45 Maryland win. This one should be low scoring and we don’t see it getting out of the 120’s. Take the UNDER.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech -1 v. Florida State||Top||63-65||Loss||-107||20 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -1 over Florida State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET
Tech won easily yesterday beating Miami by a final score of 71-56. They jumped out to a 23-8 lead midway through the first half and never trailed in the game. Because of that, they didn’t have to expend any extra energy and were able to get used to the surroundings and shooting back drop at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. We think that gives the Hokies an advantage over FSU in this game. The Noles won 12 of their last 13 games, finished 4th in the ACC one game ahead of Va Tech, are ranked higher in the polls than the Hokies, yet they are underdogs in this game? There is a reason for that. FSU played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC this year facing UNC, Duke, and UVA each only once (lost all 3). Over their final 5 games, FSU was 4-1 but was not overly impressive. They were blasted by 18 @ UNC, came from 10 down at home to beat Notre Dame (3-15 ACC record) by 7, held on at home to beat NC State by 5, and came from 7 down at half @ Wake (lowest rated team in the ACC) to win by 8. Their other game during that stretch comes into play here. That’s because it was a home game for FSU vs this Va Tech team. The Hokies led by 14 at half and blew the lead losing in OT. That gives VT some extra motivation here as they were hoping to get this rematch. The Hokies are one of the top shooting teams in the ACC (2nd in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point %) and they are facing an FSU team that defends the paint well but struggles to defend beyond the arc (12th in the ACC allowing 35% from deep). VT should also get their fair share of points at the charity stripe as FSU fouls a lot (14th in FGA/FTA) and Tech hits over 78% from the line as a team. We think both of those things play a huge role here as we expect Va Tech to shoot well again on Wednesday and gets the revenge win.
|03-13-19||Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 136||Top||69-74||Loss||-110||6 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 136 points - Northwestern vs Illinois, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET
These two in-state rivals just met on March 2nd with Illinois winning 81-76. The total in that game was set at 136 and it went over by 21 points. Despite that result from just 11 days ago, the oddsmakers again opened the total at 136 and it has dropped at some spots. Hmmm. We agree with the move and like the UNDER in this one. In their game 11 days ago the teams combined to attempt only 112 shots which isn’t a crazy high amount. The problem is, they MADE 50 free throws in the game. Not attempted, but made. That’s a ridiculously high amount and was nearly one third of the points scored in the game. To give you an idea of how high that is, Iowa leads college basketball averaging 18 made FT’s per game. So even if you have 2 Iowa’s play and make their average that’s only 36. That puts that number in perspective. Needless to say we don’t expect them to come anywhere near that number tonight. Northwestern is the worst offensive team in the league. They average just 60 PPG in conference play. They have been held below 60 points in 8 of their last 12 games. They may also be without one of their top offensive players as Vic Law (15 PPG) and even if he does play we can’t imagine he’ll be 100% after a pretty serious looking shin injury last Saturday. Illinois will want to play this game at a fast pace but NW knows they can’t win this game if that’s how it plays out. The Cats will want to slow this tempo down and usually if a team wants to play slow they get the pace they want. If Illinois doesn’t get the pace they want, they aren’t great in the half court. They shoot just 43% in league play and against the 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, & Michigan) the Illini got to 70 points just once in five games. Northwestern is very solid defensively (19th nationally in defensive efficiency) and while the Illini can struggle on that end of the court, we don’t think the Cats are potent enough offensively to take advantage of it. The United Center in Chicago has always been a tough shooting venue for college teams. It’s a huge arena and the back drop makes it tough. The last two Big 10 tourneys played here were in 2013 and 2015 and the average points scored in those tournaments was 121 and 133 respectively. We like the UNDER in this one.
|03-13-19||Nebraska v. Rutgers +1.5||Top||68-61||Loss||-108||22 h 1 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +1.5 over Nebraska, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET
These two teams were heading in opposite directions over the last half of the Big Ten season. Rutgers has improved throughout the season and they’ve become a very dangerous opponents. After starting just 1-6 in Big 10 play, the Knights went 6-7 down the stretch. A few of those losses as well were close to being wins (lost by 2 in miracle shot at buzzer vs Iowa, lost by 1 to red hot PSU team, lost in OT vs Illinois). The Huskers, on the other hand, started the Big 10 season with a 3-3 record and then went downhill fast from there. They were just 3-11 over their last 14 games and 2 of those 3 wins came by 1 point and 2 points. Their most recent win at home last Sunday was a bit of a miracle as they trailed a plummeting Iowa team (Hawkeyes had lost 3 straight games by 20, 20, and 16 points) by 8 points with 45 seconds remaining. Nebraska then proceeded to make 3 three pointers in the final 40 seconds to push the game to OT where they won by 2. Fortunate to say the least at home vs a team that was playing terrible basketball coming in. The Husker defense has been abysmal this year ranking 14th in defensive efficiency (conference games), 14th in 3-point defense, and they’ve allowed at least 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. Their offense hasn’t been much better averaging just 63 PPG since they lost starter Isaiah Copeland for the season 11 games ago. Despite their win last Sunday, they looked to us down the stretch like a team that was ready for the season to be over. Their head coach Tim Miles is most likely gone at the end of the season and the vibe around the program is negative right now. Rutgers is the exact opposite. The team is improving and their head coach Steve Pikiell has this team at 7 conference wins after they ended with only 3 each of the last 2 years. Their lone meeting this year was a Rutgers win (76-69 final score) and that was when Nebraska still had Copeland in the line up. We think Rutgers should be favored here and we like the Knights to win this game.
|03-13-19||Colorado State v. Boise State -3||Top||57-66||Win||100||18 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -3 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET
Love this spot for Boise. They are in revenge mode here after throwing up a stinker at home vs CSU at the end of February. The Broncos lost that game 76-62 which was their worst home loss of the season. We considered CSU in that game but didn’t pull the trigger as Boise was in a terrible spot and we could see a flat performance coming for that game. That’s because the Broncos were off a brutal 3 game stretch in which they played 3 of the top 4 teams in the MWC (Utah St, Fresno St, and San Diego State) all to the wire and lost all 3. Watching their game vs CSU we could see the Broncos were burnt out both physically and mentally after their grueling stretch in which they had a legitimate shot at 3-0 but ended up 0-3. The Rams shot almost 60% in that game while Boise shot just 39%. If you simply look at BSU’s results down the stretch in looks like they were struggling. That is not the case. The did lose 6 of their last 7, however 5 of those 6 losses came down to the final seconds of each game. Their loss margins in those games were 1, 2, 6, 4 in OT, and 7 in OT with four of those setbacks coming on the road. This team is MUCH better than their 7-11 MWC record. They are 12-19 on the season yet they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 71-68! Despite finishing tied for 7th with 2 other teams, the Broncs power rate as the 5th best team in the MWC behind only Nevada, Utah St, Fresno, and San Diego St. CSU was in a fantastic spot on Saturday in their home finale facing a UNLV team with absolutely nothing to play for (already locked into a first round game vs San Diego State). Despite that, the Rams couldn’t get it done at home and lost by 5. After beating Boise in late February, the Rams went on to lose their final 3 games, 2 coming at home. One of their top shooters, Anthony Masinton-Bonner (11 PPG), might miss this one as well with an Achilles injury. Boise has the advantage of just playing at the Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas losing to UNLV by 4. CSU has not played here since January 3rd. We like Boise here to pick up a win and cover.
|03-12-19||Appalachian State +8 v. Louisiana-Monroe||Top||80-89||Loss||-109||6 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +8 over UL Monroe, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court. Their most recent meeting was @ UL Monroe in late February a game in which ULM won by 6. App State dominated the boards (+10) which led to 11 more shot attempts. However, Monroe shot the lights out hitting 51% overall and a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc. Even with Monroe hooting 7% above their season average and almost 20% above their seasonal 3-point average, the game went to the wire. The largest lead ULM had in the 2nd half was 8-points (which is tonight’s spread) until there was under 1:00 minute remaining and ASU was forced to foul. The spread then pushed to 10 but App State was able to pull within 6 to close out the game. We feel Appalachian State is a bit undervalued here. If you look at their conference record it tells you they are 6-12 on the year. However, they began the season 0-6 and went 6-6 from that point on. Of their 12 Sun Belt losses, 8 came by 7 points or less so they were competitive in a majority of their conference setbacks. The Mountaineers were 2-3 on the road since January 25th with their losses coming by 3 at Texas State (2nd rated team in the Sun Belt), by 10 at UT Arlington (4th rated team on the Sun Belt) and by 6 at Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks finished the regular season with a 9-9 conference record but they were just 5-7 over their last 12 games. Of their 9 Sun Belt wins, only 2 came by more than 10 points and both were vs Arkansas LR who finished tied for last in the league. ULM is the WORST defensive team in the Sun Belt in both defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% allowed. Tough to lay this many points with a team like that in a do or die setting where both teams should bring their best. We see this one playing out very similar to their meeting a few weeks ago and another down to the wire contest. Take the points. With Appalachian State.
|03-11-19||San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's||Top||62-69||Loss||-109||9 h 57 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego +5 over St Mary's, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2
This is a very unique situation which we feels favors San Diego. The Toreros have already played 3 games in the WCC tourney while this will be St Mary’s first. San Diego blew out Portland, Santa Clara, and a very good BYU team on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Those games were all at the same venue which is the Orleans in Las Vegas. Thus, not only is San Diego playing very well, they are used to this stadium. If this was their fourth game in four days, we’d obviously leave this game alone, however they had yesterday off. Meanwhile, St Mary’s drew a bye into the semi-finals and hasn’t played a game period since March 2nd. To have 9 days off at this point in the season, potentially ruining your season long rhythm as a team is not a good thing in our opinion. We expect the Gaels to be a bit off tonight because of the long layoff. San Diego is one of the most veteran teams in the nation starting 4 seniors and 1 junior. Their record this year (21-13) is actually a bit deceiving as they had 2 key players miss 9 combined games through the middle of the conference season. They finished 7th in the league but we view them as a top 4 team in the WCC and so do most power rankings. This type of team is very dangerous come tourney time as they are better than most think and playing with nothing to lose. On top of that, their talented seniors know this is their last go around and now they are just 2 wins away from the Big Dance. Their defense has been absolutely stellar in this tourney holding all 3 opponents to under 0.80 points per possession, including 3rd seeded BYU who they thumped 80-57 on Saturday! Their 3 wins in the WCC tourney have come by margins of 23, 20, and 17 points. St Mary’s is solid but down from past year’s in our ratings. They are beatable especially in this spot. The Gaels won both games vs San Diego this year however in 1 of those the Toreros were not at full strength. That should give this red hot, veteran San Diego team extra motivation tonight. We think they have a solid shot at the upset and getting +5 here is a nice cushion. Take San Diego.
|03-10-19||East Tennessee State v. Wofford UNDER 141||Top||72-81||Loss||-110||3 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 141 Points - ETSU vs Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET
These two met twice this year and both games were grinders for the most part. The final scores were both very deceiving as they put up 141 points in their first meeting and 154 in the 2nd meeting. The first game was on pace to go well under the total for the vast majority. In fact, the two teams had 124 combined points with just 1:40 remaining in the game. They scored 17 points from that point on to get to 141. If you divide the game up into 10 minute segments these two scored 33, 29, 33, and 46 points so you can see they went crazy late. In the second meeting the game was tied at 64-64 in regulation but went to OT where they ended up with 154 points. The points per possession numbers in that game were very high with both teams averaging more than 1.10 PPP yet they still only reached 128 in regulation. These are two of the top defensive teams in the SOCON (2nd and 4th in defensive efficiency) and the tempo shouldn’t be overly quick here with Wofford ranking last in tempo in the conference and ETSU ranking 6th. Both defenses have played better down the stretch than even their overall numbers indicate with Wofford allowing 60 PPG over their last 5 games on 41% shooting by their opponents while ETSU has allowed 67 PPG on 41% shooting during the same span. With the season on the line for both in this do or die game, we expect the defenses to play as hard as they have all season. Play the UNDER in this game.
|03-09-19||Tulsa v. Memphis -8||Top||63-66||Loss||-108||23 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis -8 over Tulsa, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET
We can’t imagine that Senior Night will mean more to any other team in the nation than Memphis. That’s because the Tigers start 5 seniors who will all be playing their final regular season home game on Saturday night. The Tigers have locked up the 5 seed in the upcoming AAC tourney and while some may view that as a negative (motivation?) we view it as a positive in this spot. They already know where they sit for next week’s conference tourney so they can go out and just play with no pressure whatsoever. They will have plenty of motivation with their seniors leading the way. The Tigers also out to avenge their worst loss of the conference season, a 96-79 setback @ Tulsa. We were on Tulsa in that game as it set up perfectly for the Golden Hurricane. They were at home off 3 straight losses vs the 3 top teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF). They were also catching Memphis going on the road after upsetting UCF by 20 points. The game played out just as we thought it would with Tulsa winning outright as an underdog. Memphis is playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses coming in tight games @ UCF and @ Cincinnati (by 2). They’ve had a full week to get ready for this home finale vs a Tulsa team that has played a very easy schedule down the stretch. They’ve faced ECU & Tulane, the two worst teams in the conference, both twice since February 14th. The other two teams they faced during that stretch both turned into double digit losses vs Temple and Wichita State. Tulsa is just 3-7 on the road this year and they’ve won only twice @ Memphis in the last 16 meetings. We like Memphis to roll up a big win at home on Saturday. Lay the points.
|03-09-19||Baylor v. Kansas -7||Top||70-78||Win||100||15 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday. We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year. However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss. They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game. They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games. While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record. They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots. 9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points. We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads. They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference. They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen. They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive. They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12. Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT). The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here. When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts! KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale.
|03-08-19||Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 140.5||Top||62-78||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 140.5 Points - Illinois State vs Drake, Friday at 7 PM ET
These two have played twice this year with neither game coming near the posted total. In their first match up the total was posted at 143 and they combined to score 124 points. Their more recent game was on February 24th and the oddsmakers dropped that total to 141 and they combined to score just 127. They weren’t terrible offensively as the two teams combined to shoot 45% over those 2 outings yet they still were very low scoring. That’s two meetings that went under the total by 33 combined points and it wasn’t as if both teams shot terribly. Now they’ve dropped this total to 139 but that’s not nearly a big enough adjustment in our opinion. Unless both surprisingly go off and hit 50%+ we don’t see this getting close to 1140. These two know each other very well and their third meeting should be no different than their first two meetings. They are playing at a neutral site in St Louis that has not been conducive to scoring. Last night the two MVC tourney games here totaled 132 and 125 points. Only one team out of four in yesterday’s play in games shot better than 40%. Drake will be playing their first game at this venue and Illinois State shot just 36% here last night vs an Evansville team that ranks 9th in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Long term the MVC tourney UNDERS have been big time money makers. Since 2005 the UNDERS in MVC tourney games here in St Louis are 85-44 (66%)!
|03-07-19||Cincinnati v. UCF -2||Top||55-58||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR
UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55. The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half. Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight. The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game. This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting. Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena. Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record. However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight. Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less. They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight. In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%. That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense. They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line. 40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC. That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games. This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation. A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go. We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight.
|03-06-19||Boise State v. New Mexico -1.5||Top||72-73||Loss||-109||11 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET
We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65. We’re right back on the Lobos at home here. We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year. New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process. Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game. The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other. The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge. They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall. The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351). On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise. They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs. Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81. That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play. New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play. They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late. The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games. They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games. That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired. We like New Mexico to win their home finale.
|03-06-19||Texas-San Antonio +6 v. Western Kentucky||Top||81-76||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET
These two met one time this season and we remember it well. We were on Western KY at home favored by 6. We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win. UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points. The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run. After that, they trailed for most of the game. WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points. The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line. We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here. Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road. Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out. They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference. Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70. On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points. They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season. Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG. In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY. A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY. We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around.
|03-06-19||Missouri v. Georgia -3.5||Top||64-39||Loss||-109||8 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET
Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points? We agree with the number. Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why. Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season. They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home. The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3. Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference. Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%. They were also plus on the boards during that stretch. Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents. The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season. They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points. The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time. They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio. Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road. That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover.
|03-05-19||Kansas v. Oklahoma +2||Top||68-81||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2
We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night. This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday. A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance. “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.” OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season. Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title. Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday. The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record. That has been the theme for this young KU team this year. They really can’t be trusted on the road. They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points. Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here. These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63. The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go. Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game. Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team. OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season. This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team. We’ll take the home dog.
|03-03-19||Michigan v. Maryland +1||Top||69-62||Loss||-115||23 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week
We love this situation for Maryland. The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday. That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game. On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland. Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53. Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home. Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few. These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win. The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep. They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game. One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home. Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG. Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good. The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%). We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%. The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road. They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State. We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home.
|03-02-19||Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5||Top||65-77||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET
This is a great spot for New Mexico. They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West. The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34. San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%. Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort. The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference). Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins. Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play. Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27! Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT. We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU. They are still just 3-7 away from home this season. The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home! New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made. Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team. With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season. Lay it with the Lobos
|03-02-19||Rutgers +9 v. Iowa||Top||86-72||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET
We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits. We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch. We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points. We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now. This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss. Rutgers is trending upward. They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid. That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game. Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday. Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run. They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch. Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending. In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining. Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win. Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well. Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG. Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making. We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana. Take the points.
|03-02-19||Kentucky v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||52-71||Win||100||3 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington. We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field. Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year. That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points. The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis. He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February. Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game. In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win. This will be their first road game without Travis. Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy. They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game. Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama. Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that. The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky. Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November. We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home.
|03-02-19||Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 157||Top||86-82||Loss||-115||2 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 157 Points - Northern Kentucky @ UW Green Bay, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET
UW Green Bay has really transformed from a run & gun high scoring, poor defensive team, into a team that doesn’t score as many points as it did earlier in the year and one that plays MUCH better defense than they had been. Despite that, the oddsmakers continue to set high totals on this team. Keep in mind UWGB has now gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Not only have they been going UNDER the total, they have been close with their last 5 games staying under the number by a combined 120 points or 24 points per game! Each of their last 5 games have stayed under by at least 10 points. The Phoenix allowed a whopping 88 PPG through their first 9 Horizon League games. Since then they have given up only 71 PPG over their last 8 games, an improvement of 17 PPG. Offensively they have scored only 69 PPG over their last 5. On Saturday they face an NKU defense that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st at defending the 3 point line. NKU is 1st in the Horizon in offensive efficiency, however they might be without their leading scorer Drew McDonald in this one as he sat out Thursday’s game @ Milwaukee with back spasms. The Norse only scored 65 points in that game and they held the Panthers to just 55 points. With a first round home game in the Horizon and a top 2 seed already locked up, we’d be surprised if McDonald played here. Even if he does, this total is set too high. NKU is very similar to Wright State (the top 2 teams in the league) who played @ UWGB on Thursday. Wright is #1 in defensive efficiency and #2 in offensive efficiency while NKU is #1 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They both play at a similar pace. Thursday game here ended with a final score of UWGB 70 – Wright State 67. We see a similar type game here with it staying well UNDER this hefty total.
|03-01-19||Siena +1.5 v. Canisius||Top||62-68||Loss||-104||7 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET
Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January. Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66. One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points. His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here. Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year. They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS). Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play. Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be. Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion. They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage). This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team. Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points. We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena.
|02-28-19||Arizona State v. Oregon -3||Top||51-79||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET
This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses. Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington. The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate. They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league. Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight. These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home. The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon. The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions. Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host. The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home. ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton). After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here. Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference). It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team. The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team. Interesting line move and we agree with it. Take Oregon.
|02-27-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa +2||Top||56-55||Win||100||3 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Northern Iowa +2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 8 PM ET
Loyola continues to get way too much respect this year in our opinion. This is not the team that made it to the Final 4 last season but they continue to be wagered as such. They have been bet up to a road favorite in this game vs a team that is 9-7 in MVC play and one game out of first place behind Loyola, Missouri State, and Drake. We’ve faded the Ramblers on the road a number of times this year with very good success. That includes just a few days ago when we sided with Southern Illinois -1 at home vs Loyola and they Salukis went on to win 63-53. The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU their last 5 road games with their lone win during that stretch coming @ Valpo by a final score of 56-51. It was a game that Valpo led 9 with 7:00 minutes remaining and went on to score just 8 points the remainder of the game. Now they are on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days facing perhaps the hottest team in the MVC. Northern Iowa has won 4 consecutive games, all by double digits. One of those wins was a 63-43 trouncing of Missouri State (tied with Loyola & Drake for 1st place) on the road. Just before their 4 games run UNI lost a very tight game @ Drake (another 1st place team) in a game that had 19 lead changes. So the Panthers have played the other 2 first place teams recently, beating one handily on the road and taking the other to the wire on the road. Now they get to face their 3rd first place team but they get to do it at home on Senior Night with a chance to potentially move into a tie for first place with a win. UNI is confident and playing their best basketball of the year. They have outscored their last 5 opponents by an average score of 70-60 while making 47% of their shots and holding their opponents to 41%. On the season they rank #2 in offensive efficiency in MVC play while ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency. While Loyola does rank 1st in offensive efficiency, they are 8th in defensive efficiency and 10th (last) in eFG% defense. Last year’s Loyola team ranked 1st in both of those defensive categories. As we said, this team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s squad though people continue to think they are. When these two faced off @ Loyola earlier this year NIU took the Ramblers to the wire losing 61-60. Now the Panthers are playing much better than they were at that time and they are at home. We have now doubt that Northern Iowa is the better team right now and they are getting points at home. We’ll take it.
|02-26-19||Texas A&M +12 v. LSU||Top||55-66||Win||100||5 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +12 over LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPN2
This is a fantastic situational spot to go against this young LSU team. While this is a very good Tiger team, keep in mind they play 4 freshmen in their 7 man rotation. They are coming off back to back overtime games as well heading into this one. On Saturday, they played host to Tennessee in a game with huge SEC implications. The Vols led almost the entire game and did lead the entire 2nd half until 1:20 remaining when LSU was able to tie it. The game went to OT and the Tigers won on a crazy end of game situation in which a Tennessee player was called for a foul going for an offensive rebound on his end of the court with 0.6 seconds remaining in a tie game. The Tigers were in no position to win the game as they ball was not even in their offensive zone when the foul was called. LSU made both FT’s and won in OT 82-80. They are bound to have a letdown here after that win which was preceded by another OT game (loss to Florida) as we mentioned. Not only that, they are facing a team they beat by 15 points earlier this year. You can bet this freshmen laden team will have trouble bringing their “A” game tonight. A&M is playing much better then than were when these two faced off in January. Despite their 12-14 overall record, the Aggies have quietly won 4 of their last 5 games and have played 6 solid outings in a row. In their game vs LSU in January, the Aggies shot just 33% overall and 3 of 21 from deep (14%). Even with that horrible offensive performance, A&M still only lost by 15 which would be fairly close to this number tonight. While LSU is 12-2 in SEC play, they’ve won only 3 of those by more than 10 points. The Tigers last 7 games have all been decided by 5 points or less. This is a bit of a dangerous game for LSU vs a surging A&M team that has now covered 7 of their last 8 road games. The Tigers will most likely get this win at home in the end, but it should be much closer than most think. Take the points here.
|02-26-19||Iowa v. Ohio State -3.5||Top||70-90||Win||100||3 h 30 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET
This game is MUCH, MUCH bigger for Ohio State. The Buckeyes sit at 17-10 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play. Most NCAA projections have them barely in the tourney right now (10 seed or so). After this game they play back to back road games and then close with Wisconsin here. They simply cannot afford to lose this game vs Iowa. A win would be a resume builder vs a solid (but overrated in our opinion) Iowa Hawkeye team. OSU has lost 3 of their last 4 games but two of those games were on the road vs top tier Big Ten opponents Michigan State & Maryland. Their most recent home game was a 14-point win over Northwestern. The Bucks struggle at times to score but they are much better at putting the ball in the basket at home where they average 75 PPG on 48% shooting. They should also have a chance to thrive offensively tonight due to their opponent as the Iowa Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. OSU is much better on that end of the court ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and they gave the Hawkeyes some problems in their first meeting. That game vs OSU was just one of five games this season that Iowa was held to a offensive efficiency rating of below 100. Even though the Hawks had problems with this Buckeye defense in Iowa City, they still won by 10 due to a +10 advantage in made FT’s for the game (+14 in FT attempts). OSU also had season high 21 turnovers in that game which contributed to a number of Iowa points. Ohio State point guard CJ Jackson sat out last weekend’s loss @ Maryland but he did practice on Sunday and seems likely to play tonight which will give this team a boost. Iowa looks to us like a team that is faltering a bit right now. They are 10-6 overall in the Big Ten but their last 5 games have been shaky at best. Those games include a tight 5-point win @ Indiana, a 1-point home win vs Northwestern (buzzer beater), a 2-point miracle buzzer beater win @ Rutgers, a loss at home vs Maryland, and a OT win last weekend at home vs Indiana. Their road wins in league play have come against Rutgers (miracle shot), Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State – 4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the Big Ten. Last year OSU was laying -14.5 on this court vs Iowa and now we’re looking at -3 to -3.5 just one year later. The unranked Buckeyes are favored by a possession or more vs #22 Iowa? Hmmm… We like Ohio State here.
|02-24-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +1||53-63||Win||100||4 h 47 m||Show|
ASA play on: #824 Southern Illinois +1 over Loyola Chicago, 4PM ET – The first thing that jumped out to us was the line on this game and the value. These same two teams recently met in Loyola which had the Ramblers as a 5-point favorite at some Books. That tells us the Salukis should be -3.5-points here just based on the previous meeting. When you also look at Southern Illinois most recent home game which had them a -5.5-point favorite at home against Drake who rates the same as Loyola in our power rankings. Loyola is 3-3 SU their last six games and have allowed their last five opponents to shoot an average of 47%. On the road this season the Ramblers have a negative differential of -4.4-points per game. Southern Illinois has held foes to under 42% shooting in their building this season and have won 3 of their last four at home. The Salukis are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the MVC and those second chance opportunities will be the difference in this huge conference game.
|02-23-19||Utah v. Washington State +1.5||Top||92-79||Loss||-109||5 h 58 m||Show|
CBB PLAY ON Washington State +1.5 over Utah, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - WSU is flying a bit under the radar right now due to their overall season record of just 11-15. First off, four of those losses came when the Cougars were without Robert Franks who is one of the top players in the Pac 12. Franks is back and playing his best basketball of the season averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 contests. He leads the Pac 12 in scoring at 22 PPG and the 6’9 senior also averages almost 8 RPG. The Cougs are 4-9 in league play, however Franks missed the first 3 conference games due to an injury so with him in the line up they are a respectable 4-6 in Pac 12 play. WSU is playing their best basketball of the season right now winning 3 of their last 4 games. They’ve done so playing against some of the top teams in the league beating ASU (#2 rated team in the Pac 12) on the road, beating Arizona on the road, losing to Washington (by far the #1 team on the league) by just 2 points and they topped Colorado here on Wednesday. Over their last 5 the Cougars are averaging 78 PPG and winning by an average margin of 6 PPG. They are also well rested as they had a full week off from Feb 9th to Feb 16th and have only played 2 games since. Utah comes in trending downward losing 4 of their last 7 games. They are one of the youngest teams in the Pac 12 starting 3 freshmen who seem to be hitting a wall. That includes 2nd leading scorer Timmy Allen (12 PPG) who was out due to a back injury in the Utes 62-45 loss @ Washington on Wednesday. He will be a game time decision for this one. Utah, unlike WSU, is not rested as they will be playing their 4th game in 10 days. When these two met in January, the Utes rolled to an 18-point win shooting 55% to just 35% for WSU. Keep in mind, Franks, who was spoke about above, was out for the Cougars in that game. He makes a huge difference on both ends of the court. The host has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and these are two completely different teams than the ones that met over a month ago. Washington State keeps playing well and they get the win at home.
|02-21-19||Georgia State v. Appalachian State +2||Top||80-75||Loss||-109||4 h 48 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record? Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite. That would be a mistake in our opinion. App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward. They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games. Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball. They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points. It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT. They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington. That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them. They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch. They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%. Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion. They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4. All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games. Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play. Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games. GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home. They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable. Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74. App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79. These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.
|02-20-19||Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 128||Top||49-63||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Northwestern @ Ohio State, Wed at 8:30 PM ET
These are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten (OSU 11th & Northwestern 14th) and both are currently in big time slumps on that end of the court. Northwestern has made only 37% of their shots over the last 5 games and they are averaging just 57 PPG during that span. They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) averaging just 60 PPG. Over their last 6 games the Cats have topped 56 points just once and that was vs an up tempo Iowa team (2nd in Big Ten tempo) that is poor defensively (14th in conference in defensive efficiency). Ohio State hasn’t been much better. Over their last 5 games the Buckeyes have made only 42% of their shots and they are averaging 61 PPG. They have been held to 56 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. OSU ranks 12th in the Big Ten (conference games) in scoring putting up only 64 PPG. Defensively these teams are far ahead of the offenses. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 nationally in eFG% defense. Both teams are slower paced (257th and 298th nationally) and neither gets to the FT line very often (12th and 10th in the Big Ten in FTA/FGA). Ohio State may also be a bit undermanned tonight as starting guard CJ Jackson (13 PPG) injured his ankle over the weekend @ Michigan State and is not at 100%. He may play, but it looks like he will be limited if he does. We don’t see either of these struggling offenses getting back on track tonight and we envision a defensive grinder. This total opened at 124 and has pushed up to 128 and we agree with the oddsmakers number. The value is on the UNDER here and we’ll play it.
|02-19-19||Florida State v. Clemson -1||Top||77-64||Loss||-105||6 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Clemson -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET
We think the Tigers come into this one a bit undervalued. They are just 15-10 on the season and only 5-7 in league play. However, they are 4-3 their last 7 games and their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 1, and 2 points all on the road. They took a very good Louisville team to the wire on the road Saturday only to see the Cards win by a point. This Clemson team is better than their record. They returned 4 starters from last year’s team that finished 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16. They are now backed into a corner at home in a must win spot. They are 4-1 in ACC play at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Virginia. The Tigers are fantastic defensively (13th nationally in defensive efficiency) but they have struggled on offense at times. At home they seem to play much better on that end of the court shooting 47% and averaging 72 PPG here at Littlejohn Coliseum. FSU comes in a bit overvalued in our minds after winning 7 straight games. Keep in mind the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule thus far in the ACC yet they still are only 8-4 in league play. With all of Clemson’s close losses, the Tigers could also be sitting with a similar record if a few bounces had gone their way. FSU has just played the 2 worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech & Wake, their last 2 games winning each big giving them a false sense of security. The Noles also have a huge game on deck with North Carolina so a look ahead wouldn’t be surprising especially playing a Clemson team they already beat in Tallahassee this year. Florida State is 3-3 on the road in ACC play but two of those losses have come to lower tier teams Pitt & Boston College. Last year Clemson, with basically the same line up, beat FSU here by 13 points as a 3-point favorite. Now they are laying only 1 point in a must win spot. The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and this is a MUCH bigger game for Clemson. We’ll side with the Tigers.
|02-19-19||Alabama -1.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||56-65||Loss||-109||6 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET
We had been very successful this season when playing on or against Bama heading into last Saturday. We felt the Tide were in a great spot at home vs Florida and they laid an egg as the Gators blew them out in Tuscaloosa. We’ll come back with the Crimson Tide here and expect a very good performance off that embarrassing home effort. Head coach Avery Johnson was livid with Saturday’s effort and said he’d do whatever it takes to win, including benching players that don’t put forth the effort needed. The players go the message as starting guard John Petty stated yesterday, “I guarantee you’ll see a whole nother team coming out on Tuesday.” Bama is officially on the NCAA bubble and a loss here would be devastating. As expected, the Tide have struggled to beat the top teams in the SEC on the road, however the lower tier teams they’ve proven they can beat. The 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC, by a fairly wide margin, are Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mizzou. The Tide have played 2 of those teams on the road this year beating both Mizzou and Vandy by double digits. A&M started the SEC season losing 8 of their first 9 conference games. Then last week they beat Mizzou & Georgia, two of the worst teams in the SEC, to get to 3-8. Over the weekend they blew a double digit lead vs South Carolina and lost by 7. That could very well be a demoralizing loss for this team and lingers into this match up. The Aggies have had no home court advantage this year losing 6 of their last 8 home games. They sit right near the bottom of the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency (13th & 14th). Bama also has a bit more incentive here as they led A&M for 37 of the 40 minutes in Tuscaloosa but lost by 1-point on a off-balance, banked in 3-pointer at the buzzer. Bama is the better team and they a lot of motivation here for the reasons discussed. Where this line sits they really only have to win the game so we’ll take Alabama.
|02-19-19||Bradley +4.5 v. Drake||Top||68-77||Loss||-115||5 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Bradley +4.5 over Drake, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
The Braves came into the season with very high expectations with the majority of their key contributors returning from a 20-13 team. After going just 8-10 their first 18 games including 0-5 to start Missouri Valley play, this talented team was definitely headed in the wrong direction. That all turned around on January 20th when this team pulled the upset at Southern Illinois to pick up their first conference win. They are now 7-2 their last 9 games, including 4 road wins. Their offense struggled early in the year but over their last 8 games this team has made 47% of their 3-pointers (3 best in the nation during that stretch) and 49% of their shots overall. That has catapulted this team that already had a very good defense (2nd in MVC in defensive efficiency & eFG% defense) and they are at the top of their game right now. Their most recent two games were wins over 2 of the best teams in the league as they topped Loyola Chicago at home and then won @ Illinois State over the weekend. The oddmakers have not caught up to this team as the last 8 times they’ve been an underdog, they’ve won 6 of those games outright. Drake is tied for first place in the conference and just picked up their 20th win by holding on at home to beat Valpo by 5 over the weekend. It’s their first 20 win season since 2007 so a bit of a letdown after achieving that major goal wouldn’t be a shocker. Unlike Bradley, the Bulldogs aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year. They are 4-2 their last 6 games, however all 4 of those wins have come by 6 points or less. Their point differential over their last 5 games is dead even as they are averaging 74 PPG and allowing 74 PPG. They already won @ Bradley back in early January when the Braves were faltering. Bradley attempted 11 more shots in that first match up but made only 31% overall and only 20% from beyond the arc. They are playing much better now and we expect a solid performance from the Braves who have a little extra motivation due to that first match up. The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright and we give Bradley a great shot to win here. There is a reason the 20-win, 1st place team is only favored by 4 facing the team that is 7-7 in conference play. Take Bradley.
|02-18-19||Illinois +9.5 v. Wisconsin||Top||58-64||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois +9.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - On Fox Sports 1
These two met back in January and Wisconsin (-4) won the game 72-60 and looking at the final stats it wasn’t surprising. The Badgers shot over 50% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. They also hit 81% at the FT line. Illinois, on the other hand, made just 35% of their shots and a paltry 19% from deep. Even with that, the game was not a blowout. It landed right around where tonight’s number sits. Since that game the Illini have played very well winning 5 of their last 6 games heading into tonight. It’s not as if they are beating all lower tier Big Ten teams either as they’ve knocked off Michigan State, Maryland, and Ohio State during that stretch. The Illini have really turned up the heat defensively as their pressure defense ranks #1 in the Big Ten at creating turnovers. While Wisconsin is normally tight with the ball, they did cough it up 17 times @ Illinois or 25% of their possessions which is very high. To give you an idea, that number would rank them dead last in the Big Ten by a lot. Those turnovers led the Illinois taking 15 more shot attempts, the problem was they shot so terribly they couldn’t take advantage of it. We think that changes tonight as the Illini have played very well offensively as well shooting 46% and averaging 77 PPG their last 5. The Badgers are off back to back huge games vs Michigan & Michigan State, both went to the wire and they lost both. UW’s offense has not topped 69 points in their last 6 games and they are only averaging 59 PPG their last 5. While their defense has been very good, we don’t see them completely shutting down Illinois tonight. We see Wisconsin having a tough time pulling away in a lower scoring type game. The Badgers should win this one, however we think it will be fairly close. Take the points.
|02-17-19||Seton Hall v. Creighton -4.5||Top||81-75||Loss||-110||4 h 39 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET
These two just met on February 9th with Seton Hall coming away with a 63-58 win. The Jays offense was outright abysmal in that game yet they still took the Hall to the wire. Creighton, who ranks 5th nationally in eFG% offense and 9th nationally in 3-point FG%, shot just 30% from the field and only 28% from deep in that game. They were a ridiculously bad 6 of 22 in that game at the rim (layups) and again, even with that performance, it was a 1-point game with 10 seconds remaining. The Jays are finally back home after a 3 game road trip that saw them go 0-3. They hit a shooting slump during that 3 game span, but as stated all were on the road. Even during their offensive slump, they Blue Jays were competitive during that road trip losing in OT @ Villanova, losing in OT @ Xavier, and then losing @ Seton Hall by 5. Their defense has been playing very well and keeping them in games. Now what happens when their offense breaks out and they shoot it like they are capable? We’d say an easy win and we expect that today. Creighton shoots much better at home hitting over 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The game before they left on their 3 game road trip the Jays beat Xavier here by 22 points. Seton Hall has won 3 of their last 4 but all of those wins were at home. On the road it’s been a different story for this team. After winning their Big East road opener at Xavier, the Pirates have gone on to lose 5 straight away from home. They are averaging just 67 PPG on the road while Creighton puts up over 80 PPG at home. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and the last two games here in Omaha saw the Jays win by 17 & 14 points. We expect Creighton to break out of their mini slump and shoot very well at home today. That leads to an easy, quick revenge win over Seton Hall.
|02-16-19||Arizona State +2 v. Utah||Top||98-87||Win||100||24 h 48 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1
We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both. We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play). ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us. We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73. We’re back on Arizona State here. We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board. They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State. They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton. It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good. If not, they tend to play down to their competition. ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah. In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs. They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line. Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game). That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP. That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win. It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it. The Devils will be ready here. Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12. Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon. Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above). Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona. It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona. This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten. The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12. The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night.
|02-16-19||IUPU Ft Wayne +3.5 v. Nebraska-Omaha||71-74||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON IPFW +3.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET
We might see UNO come out a bit flat here. They just won a huge home game on Thursday night beating 1st place South Dakota State by 1 point. It was a game they trailed by 16 in the 2nd half and made a furious rally for the win. Omaha trailed for most of the game but scored with 1 second left for the 85-84 win. It’s going to be tough for the Mavs to come back again just 2 days later and play at their peak vs a team they already beat this year. These two met just a few weeks ago and IPFW was a -3.5 point favorite at home. IPFW led by 17 with 12:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew the lead and lost at home in overtime. The Mastodons have been a solid road team this year winning 4 of their 6 Summit League road games. They sit at 9-3 overall in conference play, just a half game behind Saturday’s opponent Nebraska Omaha who is in 2nd place at 9-2. These two offenses are nearly dead even ranking 1st (Omaha) and 2nd (IPFW) in Summit League play. However, Fort Wayne has the edge defensively ranking better than UNO in most of the key categories. The underdog is 11-1 ATS in this series and we like IPFW to pull off the upset here. Take the points.
|02-16-19||Florida v. Alabama -3||71-53||Loss||-110||16 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -3 over Florida, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
We’ve been successful using Alabama at home getting ATS wins vs Ole Miss & Mississippi State. We also faded the Tide on Tuesday of this week when they traveled to Mississippi State and picked up an easy win. That’s a perfect 3-0 ATS for us this year when we play on or against Alabama. We expect another win on Saturday as we take the Crimson Tide at home. They’ve been very good at Coleman Coliseum picking up home wins vs 3 of the top 5 teams on in the SEC (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss). The other two teams rated in the top 5 (Tennessee & LSU) have not yet played @ Bama. Their only home loss in SEC play was vs A&M by 1-point on a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer by the Aggies. We like this spot for the Tide back at home after a loss. They shoot very well here and are averaging 80 PPG on their home court. That’s a tough situation for a Florida team that struggles offensively, especially on the road. In their 7 true road games, the Gators are averaging only 60 PPG while shooting a terrible 37%. They’ve only topped 62 points one time this year on the road in SEC play. They have won only one SEC road game and that was vs a Georgia team that is the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference. Three of the Gators five conference wins have come vs the bottom 3 teams in the league (Georgia, Vandy, and A&M). They are the worst in the conference at getting points inside the arc, yet they aren’t a great 3-point shooting team (33% in SEC games – 9th in the league). They also rarely get to the FT line. You can see why this team struggles to score. They won’t get many extra chances either as Alabama is the much better rebounding team ranking 5th in the SEC compared to Florida who is dead last. The Gators come in off a win over the worst team in the conference (Vandy) now facing a Bama team that is 4-1 SU following a conference loss this season. Alabama has already beaten 3 teams at home that are better than Florida and we see no reason they don’t win this one. Take the Crimson Tide
|02-16-19||Detroit v. Green Bay -4.5||73-82||Win||100||15 h 30 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON UW Green Bay -4.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET
This game has a number of solid situations in favor of Green Bay. First Detroit is playing their 4th consecutive road game in just 10 days. After getting blown out at Northern Kentucky and at Wright State, the Titans were able to pull off a small upset on Thursday night beating UW Milwaukee by 6. The Panthers actually outplayed Detroit making 10 more field goals and outrebounding the Titans. So how did Detroit pull off the win? The foul disparity was ridicuously lopsided with Detroit making 31 FTs to just 7 for the home team. You don’t often see a home team get “reverse homered” by the refs like that. Good thing for Detroit as despite being +24 at the FT line the game vs UWM still went to the wire. Don’t expect Detroit to get that benefit on Saturday. That win pushed the Titans road record to 4-11 on the season with 3 of those wins coming against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Horizon League (Cleveland St, Youngstown St, and Milwaukee). This team is simply not used to success away from home going just 9-36 SU their last 45 road games. In their 15 road games Detroit is averaging 67 PPG (way down from their home average of 79 PPG) and shooting only 39%. That won’t keep up here vs a UWGB team that averages 85 PPG at home having scored at least 90 points in 7 of their 11 at home (9-2 home record). The Phoenix have been waiting patiently for this rematch. They went to Detroit earlier in the season in a pick-em game and the Titans dominated 101-82 making over 53% of their shots. It was by far the most points GB has given up in conference play this year and they were embarrassed by their effort on that end of the court. They played very well defensively on Thursday holding a high scoring Oakland team (75 PPG average) to just 54 points in the 12-point Green Bay win. We expect that to carry over here and we’re positive they’ll be very focused defensively and remember, Detroit has been poor offensively on the road this year. Speaking of poor, when the Titans lose on the road, it’s not close as all 11 of their road losses have come by double digits. Green Bay gets a big win on Saturday.
|02-14-19||BYU v. San Diego -2.5||Top||88-82||Loss||-110||5 h 17 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now. We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga. They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley). San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few. So why are they just 5-5 in league play? Injuries. Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January. Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game. That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters. They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine. San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out. This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season. BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued. They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC. However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight. The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively. Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy. Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13. Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13. Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year. The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego. This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.
|02-14-19||Illinois v. Ohio State OVER 144||Top||63-56||Loss||-109||2 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 144 Points - Illinois @ Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET
These two met earlier this year and with the total set at 143.5, the final score was OSU 77-67 pushing the game OVER by a half point and landing exactly on the set total for this evening. However, neither team was special on offense in that game as the two combined to make just 39% of their shots. From 3-point land the combined to make only 12 of 36 for just 33%. So how did they get to 144 points in that game? Free throws were a big factor as they combined to make 46 from the charity stripe. We don’t expect that to change much tonight as these teams send their opponents to the FT line more than any other in the Big Ten (Illinois ranks 14th in the league and OSU ranks 13th). However we do expect the other offensive aspects of the game (shooting) to improve from their last meeting. The Illini are playing very well right now, especially on offense. They are the fastest paced team in the Big Ten and they have scored 99, 79, 78, 75, and 71 points their last 5 games. That includes 79 in a win vs Michigan State and 78 in a win over Maryland, the 3rd and 4th most efficient defenses in the Big Ten. While the Illinois offense is playing the best they have all season, the defense remains an issue. They put pressure on opponents but they foul A LOT as we mentioned above. They rank 14th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense, 10th in 3-point FG% defense, 13th in 2-point FG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency. They allow 76 PPG in conference play which is tied with Iowa for worst in the Big Ten. OSU is off an offensive clunker @ Indiana on Sunday a game in which they won 55-52. The Bucks put up only 0.93 points per possession in that game while holding Indiana to a terrible 0.88 PPP. They should look much better tonight at home where they shoot 48% and average 77 PPG and they are facing the worst defensive team in the conference. Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 76-68 type win for OSU. We think both teams eclipse those projected numbers and this goes OVER.
|02-13-19||Arizona State v. Colorado -1||Top||73-77||Win||100||6 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -1 over Arizona State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1
We were on ASU on Saturday night as they were a small favorite vs an undefeated (in Pac 12 play) Washington. We thought the game set up very well with ASU coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to Washington St while UW was off a rare win @ Arizona. On top of that a few of the Husky players were under the weather. The game worked out as planned with the Devils rolling up a double digit win. Now off that huge home win we’ll fade them here on the road. Colorado is playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 3 straight including back to back road wins @ UCLA & @ USC. The Buffs have won 4 of their last 6 games and one of their losses came by 2 points to Oregon State in a game they led at half and was back and forth down the stretch. They could easily on a 5-1 run right now. CU is 8-2 at home this year and they’ve won 26 of their last 32 games here at the Coors Event Center. Their offense has been MUCH better at home where they are shooting 49% and scoring 83 PPG and if you remove their one outlier road performance (95 points @ Air Force) the Buffs average just 68 PPG on the road. Arizona State has been all over the board this year. They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State this season. They’ve also lost to Princeton, Washington State, and Vanderbilt. Their losses to Princeton & Washington State came after huge wins over Kansas & Arizona. We see a pattern here and would be surprised if the Sun Devils are at their best tonight after giving Washington their first conference loss. These two met back in early January and CU played one of their worst games of the season in a 83-61 loss. The Buffs shot 33% for the game while ASU hit nearly 58% of their shots. That should give Colorado a little extra motivation tonight. Just a few weeks ago the Buffs were laying -3 here vs Washington, easily the best team in the Pac 12. Now they are laying just -1 vs Arizona State. The host has covered 11 of the last 12 and we like Colorado to pick up another win.
|02-12-19||San Diego State v. Colorado State +3||Top||71-60||Loss||-109||7 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado State +3 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPN2
SDSU is simply not trustworthy as a road favorite. This team isn’t nearly as good as past editions yet the continue to get respect as if they are. The Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the road in MWC play with their only win coming @ San Jose State who is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 342nd out of 351). They have been a terrible road favorite this year as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games outright when laying points on the road. Their most recent was last week when they were favored in this range @ New Mexico and lost by 13 (we were on New Mexico in that game). It’s also a bad spot for SDSU as they are off a huge home win over Utah State (2nd ranked team in the MWC) and they have a big home revenger on deck vs Boise State this weekend. Colorado State is just 4-7 in league play however they’ve faced the toughest schedule in league play. Nearly half of their games have come against the top 3 teams in the league as they’ve already faced Nevada twice, Fresno twice, and Utah State once. Of their 7 conference losses, 5 have come against the top 4 teams in the league. The Rams are 3-2 at home in Mountain West play with their only losses coming to Nevada (best team in the league and one of the best in the nation) and by 2 points to Boise State (5th rated team in the conference). They’ve also beaten Fresno (8-3 in conference play) here at Moby Arena. San Diego State is ripe to go down AGAIN as a road favorite and we’ll be on Colorado State in this game.
|02-12-19||Alabama v. Mississippi State -5.5||Top||62-81||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -5.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET
These two met just 2 weeks ago and Bama -2 came out on top 83-79 (we were on Bama in that game). The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner at home in this one and this has become pretty much a must win spot. MSU if off 2 straight down to the wire home losses vs two of the top three teams in the SEC. Last week they lost in OT by 4 points to LSU and over the weekend they were ousted by a red hot Kentucky team by 4 points. The Bulldogs were in a position to win both of those games but did not. Now at 4-6 in league play, they need this win for their NCAA hopes. Mississippi State has lost 4 of their last 6 games but those setbacks were vs Kentucky (twice), LSU, and this Alabama team on the road. That is a tough stretch and the losses were not surprising. After this game, MSU leaves for a 2 game road trip after this game so a loss could be devastating. Bama comes in off 2 straight wins, however unlike MSU playing the top of the conference teams, the Tide beat Georgia & Vandy, the two lowest rated teams in the SEC. They are 2-5 in road games this season with their only wins coming @ Vandy (lowest rated team in the SEC) and @ Mizzou in OT (4th lowest rated team in the SEC). This is Alabama’s 2nd road game in 4 days after beating Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Tide might also be without two key big man reserves tonight (Reese & Smith) who played key roles in their win over MSU a few weeks ago. We think this sets up very nicely for the Bulldogs and we’ll lay the points here.
|02-12-19||Purdue v. Maryland +2.5||Top||56-70||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET
Our power ratings have the Terps favored by 1 in this game so we’ll take the value as they are getting 2.5 points. The closest comparison we can use was when Maryland was at home vs Wisconsin just a few weeks ago and the Terps were favored by -3.5 in that game. This line is currently a full 6-points from where that line was released despite the fact that the Badgers and Boilers are dead even in our power ratings (even on a neutral court). Maryland is just happy to be playing a home game (where they are 5-0 SU in Big 10 play) as they’ve been on the road for 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve played just one home game since January 14th. The Boilers, on the other hand, have been at home for 3 of their last 4 games. They have played 5 conference road games this year and they are 3-2 in those games with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime. However, on the road against the top 6 conference teams, Purdue has a 1-2 record with their only win @ Wisconsin in OT. Tonight they face the 5th rated Big 10 team on the road and they have faced a top 6 team on the road since January 11th. Purdue relies too heavily on the 3-pointer (40% of their points which ranks 14th nationally) and too much on 1 player Carsen Edwards. While they have been very good, we have a feeling those two things will catch up with them on the road vs good teams. The fact is Maryland is actually a better 3-point shooting team (#1 in the Big Ten at 39.7%) and they are facing a Purdue defense that doesn’t defend the arc very well allowing 37% (12th in the league). The Terps are also the best rebounding team in the league by quite a large margin (+9 rebound margin) and they have been plus rebounds in every Big Ten game this season. That should give them extra opportunities at home tonight and if they can slow down Purdue’s perimeter game, they should win this game. If it comes down to FT’s down the stretch, also keep in mind Maryland is the best FT shooting team in the Big 10 at 76.3%. These two met in early December when this young Maryland team was still finding their way and they almost pulled the upset in West Lafayette losing by 2. Tonight they get the home win. Take Maryland.
|02-10-19||Ohio State v. Indiana -2||Top||55-52||Loss||-105||14 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times. IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8. OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6. The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games. They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State. Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing. IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers. Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4. Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska). The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG. Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%. OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team. The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation. IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here. We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win.
|02-09-19||Washington v. Arizona State +1.5||Top||63-75||Win||100||24 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN
Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right? The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4. We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago. Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60. The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game. It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012. Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State. That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances. This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few. With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61. This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington. We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean. Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even. The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be. As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12. They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road. Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed. The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall. Take Arizona State at home.
|02-09-19||Texas v. West Virginia +5||75-53||Loss||-110||22 h 35 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON West Virginia +5 over Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - On ESPN2
We feel this WVU team is a very dangerous one at home. They are having a down year with a record of just 10-13 overall, however they are a very good program that is very well coached under Bob Huggins. We felt they’d get much better as they season has gone on and they have, especially at home. They have won 2 of their last 3 home games with wins over Kansas & Oklahoma. After their win over the Sooners here last Saturday, WVU went on the road and got smoked to Texas Tech which wasn’t a huge surprise off their big home win. It’s also helping the line value here in our opinion. Texas is off a big home win over a red hot Baylor team. The Horns also have a huge home game on deck next week vs 1st place Kansas State. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns who are just 1-5 SU on the road in conference play. UT has simply been a terrible road team in Big 12 play winning just 2 of their last 23 conference road games. Not only are they being asked to win this road game – which they obviously very rarely do – they need to win by a solid margin as a road favorite. These two met in January @ Texas and the Horns were far from dominant in the 61-54 home win. WVU has confidence here after their recent play at home and that should be bolstered by the way they played @ Texas last month. We think the Mountaineers have a solid shot at the win here and we’ll take the points.
|02-09-19||Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5||70-63||Loss||-110||20 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Baylor -2.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN2
The Bears are in a great spot at home for this game. Baylor was red hot winning 6 straight games (4 by double digits) before losing @ Texas earlier this week. That dropped them to 7-3 in league play, 1-game behind their opponent on Saturday, KSU. The catch the Wildcats in a definite letdown spot as they won their “game of the year” earlier this week beating arch rival Kansas (we were on KSU). While the Wildcats are not a great offensive team, they rely heavily on their defense to win games. The problem for KSU besides the situation is this, Baylor’s defensive numbers are nearly just as good as KSU’s yet the Bears offense is much better. They both allow just 41% shooting on the year so a wash there, Baylor’s offense ranks #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, #1 in eFG%, and #1 in 3-point FG%. The Bears are also the best offensive rebounding team AND the best defensive rebounding team in the conference so their opponents do not get many extra opportunities while Baylor does. With their marksmanship from deep (40% and #1 in the conference) the Bears should be able to take advantage of a Wildcat defense that is dead last in the league defending the arc. We expect Kansas State to have problems on offense as they shoot just 39% on the road this year. BU has covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS setback coming by a point and half. This sets up perfectly in our opinion and we’ll lay the small number with Baylor.
|02-09-19||Villanova v. Marquette -1.5||65-66||Loss||-109||16 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Marquette -1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET on FOX
It’s pretty much a Marquette – Villanova battle for the Big East Title. With 8 games remaining Nova sits at 10-0 with Marquette at 8-2 – everyone else has at least 5 losses. Nova is off an OT win at home on Wednesday over Creighton. Three Wildcat starters topped 40 minutes in that game. The Cats are very thin with Jay Wright normally playing just 7 players so that could be a factor here off a big OT win. Marquette comes in off a 1-point home loss on Tuesday to St Johns. It was the Eagles first home loss of the season. That game was on Tuesday giving them an extra day to prepare and with the game at home, really 2 extra days to prepare. The Wildcats offense has look very good as of late but keep in mind they’ve played 6 straight games vs teams ranked 5th or lower in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Now they face a much improved Marquette defense that ranks #1 in the conference in eFG% defense and 2nd in defensive efficiency. At home, Marquette has held opponents to just 62 PPG on 37% shooting. Offensively the Eagles rank #1 in the Big East in 3-point FG% (40%), #1 in FT% (79%) and 3rd in eFG%. They have shot very well at the new Fiserv Forum (Bucks NBA Arena) which is a big arena which has been tough on opponents with only 2 of their 15 foes reaching 1.00 point per possession here. We expect the Wildcats to have some problems offensively while Marquette should play well on that end of the court vs a Villanova defense that allows 48% on the road. Marquette is 14-1 at home and have beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Buffalo here at Fiserv. This is pretty much a must win game for Marquette or they fall 3 full games behind Nova. Coming off their first home loss, we like the Eagles to win this one.
|02-07-19||Cincinnati v. Memphis +4.5||Top||69-64||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET
We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5). They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses. On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records. The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC. Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference. They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4. Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate. The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4. That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season. But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team. They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee. The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here. Cincy is vulnerable on the road. They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league). Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.
|02-06-19||LSU v. Mississippi State -3||Top||92-88||Loss||-108||5 h 20 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt
The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion. They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida). LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss. Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4. Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win. It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally. The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost. We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road. Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race. They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday. The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark. MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits. We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in. Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas. We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.
|02-06-19||Maryland v. Nebraska UNDER 135.5||Top||60-45||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135.5 Points - Maryland @ Nebraska, Wed at 7:00 PM ET
These two met in early January and the total was set at 137 and the final score was Maryland 74, Nebraska 72 which eclipsed that total. Despite that result, this total is set lower than their first meeting which is very interesting and we agree with the move. We expect a much lower scoring game this time around. In the first meeting both teams shot fairly well as they combined to make 47% of their shots and 44% of the 3-pointers. Neither team averages those shooting numbers on the season and the large difference came from deep where Maryland shoots 37% on the season and Nebraska just 34%. In that game the Terps averaged 1.14 points per possession while Nebraska came in at 1.11. The Huskers offensive numbers have fallen off drastically over the last few weeks as they have not put up 1.00 points per possession in any of their last 5 games. They lost a key scorer Isaac Copeland 2 games ago and they have scored 51 vs Wisconsin & 64 vs Illinois (the least efficient defense in the Big Ten) their last 2 games. Now facing a Maryland defense that ranks 4th in the Big Ten (conference play) allowing opponents to shoot just 41% and also holding opponents to 32% from deep will be a problem for the Huskers. The Terps also rank 3rd in the Big Ten allowing only 65 PPG. Despite their struggling offense, Nebraska does get it done on the other end of the court ranking 5th in the league in FG% defense with just 2 of their last 7 opponents topping 70 points. The Terps offense has gone into a bit of a lull as well averaging just 65 PPG over their last 5. Neither teams plays at a fast pace with each ranking in the 250 range in adjusted tempo so we don’t expect a large number of possessions in this one. This one turns into a grinder and goes UNDER the total.
|02-05-19||San Diego State v. New Mexico +2||Top||70-83||Win||100||13 h 51 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2
The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno). They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that. They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State. The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s. That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here. Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State. The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season. They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams). It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59. Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31. In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part. They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58! That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1. In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66. San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot. SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite. Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.
|02-05-19||Kansas v. Kansas State -2.5||Top||67-74||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN
Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU. They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile. Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today. Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at. KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum. Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season. The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage. This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games. They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road. It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury. The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight. Take Kansas State.
|02-04-19||Louisville v. Virginia Tech OVER 136||Top||72-64||Push||0||4 h 10 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 136 Points - Louisville @ Virginia Tech, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - On ESPN
After the game Va Tech played on Saturday, we had a feeling this total would be set too low and then bet under by many anyway. That’s exactly what happened. This total should be 140 according to our power ratings yet it opened 137. It has since been bet down to 136 as of this writing early on Monday afternoon. I’m sure you are all aware of the Va Tech – NC State game over the weekend. If not, the final score was Va Tech 47, NC State 24. Yes that was the final score. The Wolfpack made just 9 field goals for the game in 54 shot attempts! From beyond the arc they were 2 of 28. The Hokies weren’t a whole lot better making 16 of their 45 shots. The two teams combined to make only 12 FT’s. It was just one of those games more so than a great defensive performance. The fact is VT hasn’t been a great defense in ACC play. Even with Saturday’s performance they rank 8th in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% defense. They actually have better numbers offensively in ACC play ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their 9 ACC games. If you throw out last Saturday’s result, which was an aberration, VT’s total points scored in their other ACC games was 185, 158, 152, 147, 143, 134, and 101. That last number (101) was vs Georgia Tech who has a very solid defense but the worst offense in the ACC (15th in the conference in offensive efficiency). Now Tech will face a Louisville offense that ranks 2nd in the ACC in offensive efficiency. The Cards are averaging 77 PPG on the road this year and they’ve scored at least 79 points in 7 of their 9 ACC games. This line, as we mentioned, has been over adjusted too much. Last year these two met twice and the totals were set at 152 & 148.5. This has been a higher scoring with 4 of the last 5 meetings going OVER as they combined to score 184, 180, 174, 143, and 141 in their 5 meetings since they began their ACC series. As you can see, any of those outputs go over this number fairly easily. We realize VT’s Robinson is out tonight but we still think this is set too low. Take the OVER.
|02-02-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois State||Top||57-65||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH
These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss. The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog. It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points. Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season. The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place. They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team. Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for. This is the Birds biggest home game of the season. Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney. They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season. Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season. They want this one badly. ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup. They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG). They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season. The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6). They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48). Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively. Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode. Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games. It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2. We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.
|02-01-19||Wisc-Milwaukee +7 v. Green Bay||Top||74-90||Loss||-107||9 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET
These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road. That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings. The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining. UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots. Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line. The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team. That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then. In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team. They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting. Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%. The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG. UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots. The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG. UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass. Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here. The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation. We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.
|01-31-19||Texas-San Antonio v. Western Kentucky -6||Top||88-96||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH
We love the way this one sets up. WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA. They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion. They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now. If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league. They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule. This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss. They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily. It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA. The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY. That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers. Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play. Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half (7) of the league. Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss. One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1. We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least. Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play. They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB. UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem. The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight. We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.
|01-30-19||Memphis v. Tulsa +2.5||Top||79-95||Win||100||5 h 38 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH
Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion. They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play. The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF). The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice. They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston. This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road. Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year. They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season. The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend. Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%. Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep. Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally). They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally. Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road. Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games. Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits. We like Tulsa getting points at home here.
|01-30-19||Marquette v. Butler -2.5||Top||76-58||Loss||-103||3 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET
This is a massively important game for Butler. They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East. They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton. The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion. They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette. Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season. They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th. They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year. Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting. After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight. However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less. They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East. Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings. On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win. The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot. They have very little inside game. 36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play. The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench. Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here. The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette. We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team. That should tell you something. Butler is the side here.
|01-29-19||Nevada v. UNLV +9.5||Top||87-70||Loss||-105||8 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2
We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry. Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so. However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home. They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road. They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point. Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance. UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play. They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play. The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points. They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well. They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples. They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC. While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league). UNLV should be able to take advantage of that. This line is too high in our opinion. Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St). Those results set this one up nicely for the home team. Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5. Now they are laying nearly double digits. Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.
|01-29-19||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +9.5||Top||87-52||Loss||-109||7 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET
The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday. So Kentucky’s the play here right? It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle. First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite. Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here. In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game. Not once. Their biggest lead was 11. Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena. UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend. Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck. Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma. It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU. In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT. This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky. This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits. Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here. We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.
|01-29-19||Mississippi State v. Alabama -1.5||Top||79-83||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET
We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win. The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend. Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12. Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining. The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark. Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor. It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition. Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama. They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next. The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here. They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago. The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy. MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field. We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding). They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc. We really like Alabama in this spot.
|01-27-19||Iona v. Fairfield +1.5||Top||68-80||Win||100||2 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record. Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record. The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops. That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers. This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above. That’s too easy. While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall. Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home. They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season. Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home. Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago. Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home. First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago. Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch. That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win. Both teams took 64 shots and made 31. Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona). The rebounds were pretty much dead even. The difference? Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona. We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield. The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.
|01-26-19||Colorado v. Stanford -1.5||Top||62-75||Win||100||25 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET
The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win. In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games. They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71. Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game. Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference. No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play. Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up. This is a must win for Stanford. They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion. First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida. Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego. In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference. Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal. One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall. It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving. CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire. Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford). We really like the match for Stanford as well. Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc. The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference). On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league). This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win. Take Stanford.
|01-26-19||Old Dominion v. Texas-San Antonio||Top||73-74||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET
ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record. That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now. They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant. They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points. The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire. This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here. They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year). Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year. UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion. The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road. They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night. Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday. Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one. These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU. The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one. UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average). The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate.
|01-26-19||Iowa State v. Ole Miss -1||Top||87-73||Loss||-108||17 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET
This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation. There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU. The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season. They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76. It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4. We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title. Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points). Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide). That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels. Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents. They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc). That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to. Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team. The Rebs dominated that game 82-67. Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.