|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-17-19||Michigan +1 v. Michigan State||Top||60-65||Loss||-110||4 h 45 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET
MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game. These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title. The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control. “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game. MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten. That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome. Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one. In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings. We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions. MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%. Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27. Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here. MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half. Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes. The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here. We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season. We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship.
|03-16-19||Western Kentucky -1 v. Old Dominion||Top||56-62||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year
We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely. They are a team that if motivated is very good. They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia. They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle. Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential. This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated. One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11. USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19). ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long. They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting. Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost. They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1. ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game! Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining! ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining. Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both. However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games. Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4. Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3. Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off. There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st. Take Western Kentucky.
|03-15-19||Colorado +3.5 v. Washington||Top||61-66||Loss||-110||3 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year
This line looks like a trap to us. The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th? Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above. We like Colorado here. Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team. Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those. The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games. Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT. Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8. During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford). Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field. The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They are confident and dangerous right now. Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight.
|03-15-19||Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 127||Top||62-66||Loss||-110||4 h 22 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 127 Points - Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Friday at 3 PM ET
This is a low number for a total but we don’t expect these two to get there. Nebraska is playing their 3rd game in 3 days so shooting legs will be an issue. They are a very thin team with only 6 scholarship players remaining. The Huskers were already a slow paced team but due to their limited numbers they have gone very slow in this tourney with just 105 and 101 shot attempts (both teams combined) in their first two games in this tourney. They’ve totaled 128 & 130 in those games and now they face the slowest paced team and the top defense in the Big Ten so we expect lower numbers than the first two games today. We had a winner on the UNDER yesterday in the Nebraska – Maryland game as they scored 129 but that was very deceiving as the game was on pace to score less than 115 for much of the game. They combined for 52 points in the final 10:00 minutes and it still only reached 130. Wisconsin will be playing their first game in this tourney so we look for them to struggle shooting the ball at the United Center. The Badgers have gone 12 straight games without scoring 70 points in regulation and we don’t expect it here. The Nebraska defense has held their first 2 opponents in this tourney to 61 points each so we anticipate mid 60’s at best for Wisconsin. The UW defense has held their Big Ten opponents to just 60 PPG (first in the conference) and we’d be shocked in the Huskers got out of the 50’s in this game. Wisconsin’s defense has not allowed more than 67 points in ANY of their last 15 games (in regulation) and over half of those opponents (8) did not top 60 points. In their lone meeting this year @ Nebraska, the oddmakers set the total at 128 which is nearly where we sit here in a much different circumstance. The Huskers were full strength in that game and it was in at Pinnacle Arena which is much more conducive to shooting well. Even with that the two combined to score only 113 combined points. We would lean Wisconsin in this game but with the spread sitting at -8 currently, that could be a bit dangerous in a low scoring game. We feel the UNDER is the much better way to go here.
|03-14-19||Penn State -2 v. Minnesota||Top||72-77||Loss||-109||24 h 10 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -2 over Minnesota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
We’ll ride the red hot team here and that is Penn State. There is a reason the Nittany Lions with a record of 14-17 are favored over a Minnesota team that is 19-12 and fighting for an NCAA bid. PSU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 winning 7 of 10 down the stretch after starting the conference season 0-10. Even when they lost their first 10 conference games they were very competitive for the most part with 7 of those losses coming by 7 points or less or in OT. They tied for 10th in conference play but they are power rated as the 6th best team in the Big Ten behind only Michigan St, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland. PSU’s only losses since February 1st came @ Ohio State by 4 back when the Buckeyes were actually still playing fairly well, @ Purdue who won the Big 10, and @ Wisconsin by 4. They’ve been fantastic defensively down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to just 63 PPG on 38% shooting. They held all 5 of those opponents to 1.00 point per possession or less which is simply great defense. That defense will be a problem for a Minnesota offense that is shooting barely 40% of their last 5 games and averaged only 60 PPG in road games this season. Unlike the surging Lions, Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games down the stretch. They are currently in the Big Dance in most projections but the Gophs do have some pressure on them to not go out right away in the Big 10 tourney giving the committee a reason to possibly leave them out. PSU is playing loose and with house money. These two met once this season in Minnesota when Penn State was in the midst of their 10 game losing streak. Despite that the Lions almost won on the road losing 65-64 blowing an 11 point second half lead. PSU is playing much better than they were at that time while Minnesota has dropped a notch. They have one of the top players in the league with Lamar Stevens (20 PPG) who is very tough to guard inside the paint. He should eat up a Minnesota defense that ranks 12th in the Big Ten at defending inside the arc allowing 50% shooting by opponents. Penn State gets the win and cover here.
|03-14-19||Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 135||Top||69-61||Win||100||4 h 50 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135 Points - Nebraska vs Maryland, Thursday at 3 PM ET
We were a bit unlucky with our UNDER play in the Big Ten last night as Northwestern vs Illinois landed on 122 on regulation (we had UNDER 135.5) but went over the total in overtime. The other Big Ten game yesterday (Nebraska vs Rutgers) totaled 129 to both games failed to reach 130 in regulation. As we stated yesterday, the United Center is a tough venue for shooting, especially when teams have not played here. The last 2 times Chicago hosted the Big Ten tourney the average points scored were 121 and 133. Nebraska shot just 40% yesterday vs Rutgers and made only 3 of 15 from beyond the arc. Today the thin Huskers (just 6 players played 10+ minutes) face a much tougher Maryland defense that is very long inside. The Huskers will have massive problems scoring inside due to the Terps length which means they’ll have to make 3’s which is tough in this venue. On top of that the Huskers aren’t a good 3 point shooting team in general hitting just 32% in Big Ten play this year (9th in the conference). NU benefitted yesterday from going to the line 32 times and making 23 which won’t happen today. Maryland will slow this game down (13th in the Big Ten in tempo) and we anticipate they’ll struggle shooting in their first game at the UC. The Terps aren’t a high scoring team to begin with and playing here won’t change that. Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 70-65 type game. Here’s the problem, Maryland has scored more than 70 points only ONCE in their last 12 games. This is the third time these two have faced each other this year so they are very familiar with each other which will make it tough to score. In their first meeting they totaled 142 points but combined to shoot 47% overall and 43% from beyond the arc. In their most recent meeting they totaled just 105 in a 60-45 Maryland win. This one should be low scoring and we don’t see it getting out of the 120’s. Take the UNDER.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech -1 v. Florida State||Top||63-65||Loss||-107||20 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -1 over Florida State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET
Tech won easily yesterday beating Miami by a final score of 71-56. They jumped out to a 23-8 lead midway through the first half and never trailed in the game. Because of that, they didn’t have to expend any extra energy and were able to get used to the surroundings and shooting back drop at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. We think that gives the Hokies an advantage over FSU in this game. The Noles won 12 of their last 13 games, finished 4th in the ACC one game ahead of Va Tech, are ranked higher in the polls than the Hokies, yet they are underdogs in this game? There is a reason for that. FSU played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC this year facing UNC, Duke, and UVA each only once (lost all 3). Over their final 5 games, FSU was 4-1 but was not overly impressive. They were blasted by 18 @ UNC, came from 10 down at home to beat Notre Dame (3-15 ACC record) by 7, held on at home to beat NC State by 5, and came from 7 down at half @ Wake (lowest rated team in the ACC) to win by 8. Their other game during that stretch comes into play here. That’s because it was a home game for FSU vs this Va Tech team. The Hokies led by 14 at half and blew the lead losing in OT. That gives VT some extra motivation here as they were hoping to get this rematch. The Hokies are one of the top shooting teams in the ACC (2nd in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point %) and they are facing an FSU team that defends the paint well but struggles to defend beyond the arc (12th in the ACC allowing 35% from deep). VT should also get their fair share of points at the charity stripe as FSU fouls a lot (14th in FGA/FTA) and Tech hits over 78% from the line as a team. We think both of those things play a huge role here as we expect Va Tech to shoot well again on Wednesday and gets the revenge win.
|03-13-19||Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 136||Top||69-74||Loss||-110||6 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 136 points - Northwestern vs Illinois, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET
These two in-state rivals just met on March 2nd with Illinois winning 81-76. The total in that game was set at 136 and it went over by 21 points. Despite that result from just 11 days ago, the oddsmakers again opened the total at 136 and it has dropped at some spots. Hmmm. We agree with the move and like the UNDER in this one. In their game 11 days ago the teams combined to attempt only 112 shots which isn’t a crazy high amount. The problem is, they MADE 50 free throws in the game. Not attempted, but made. That’s a ridiculously high amount and was nearly one third of the points scored in the game. To give you an idea of how high that is, Iowa leads college basketball averaging 18 made FT’s per game. So even if you have 2 Iowa’s play and make their average that’s only 36. That puts that number in perspective. Needless to say we don’t expect them to come anywhere near that number tonight. Northwestern is the worst offensive team in the league. They average just 60 PPG in conference play. They have been held below 60 points in 8 of their last 12 games. They may also be without one of their top offensive players as Vic Law (15 PPG) and even if he does play we can’t imagine he’ll be 100% after a pretty serious looking shin injury last Saturday. Illinois will want to play this game at a fast pace but NW knows they can’t win this game if that’s how it plays out. The Cats will want to slow this tempo down and usually if a team wants to play slow they get the pace they want. If Illinois doesn’t get the pace they want, they aren’t great in the half court. They shoot just 43% in league play and against the 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, & Michigan) the Illini got to 70 points just once in five games. Northwestern is very solid defensively (19th nationally in defensive efficiency) and while the Illini can struggle on that end of the court, we don’t think the Cats are potent enough offensively to take advantage of it. The United Center in Chicago has always been a tough shooting venue for college teams. It’s a huge arena and the back drop makes it tough. The last two Big 10 tourneys played here were in 2013 and 2015 and the average points scored in those tournaments was 121 and 133 respectively. We like the UNDER in this one.
|03-13-19||Nebraska v. Rutgers +1.5||Top||68-61||Loss||-108||22 h 1 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +1.5 over Nebraska, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET
These two teams were heading in opposite directions over the last half of the Big Ten season. Rutgers has improved throughout the season and they’ve become a very dangerous opponents. After starting just 1-6 in Big 10 play, the Knights went 6-7 down the stretch. A few of those losses as well were close to being wins (lost by 2 in miracle shot at buzzer vs Iowa, lost by 1 to red hot PSU team, lost in OT vs Illinois). The Huskers, on the other hand, started the Big 10 season with a 3-3 record and then went downhill fast from there. They were just 3-11 over their last 14 games and 2 of those 3 wins came by 1 point and 2 points. Their most recent win at home last Sunday was a bit of a miracle as they trailed a plummeting Iowa team (Hawkeyes had lost 3 straight games by 20, 20, and 16 points) by 8 points with 45 seconds remaining. Nebraska then proceeded to make 3 three pointers in the final 40 seconds to push the game to OT where they won by 2. Fortunate to say the least at home vs a team that was playing terrible basketball coming in. The Husker defense has been abysmal this year ranking 14th in defensive efficiency (conference games), 14th in 3-point defense, and they’ve allowed at least 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. Their offense hasn’t been much better averaging just 63 PPG since they lost starter Isaiah Copeland for the season 11 games ago. Despite their win last Sunday, they looked to us down the stretch like a team that was ready for the season to be over. Their head coach Tim Miles is most likely gone at the end of the season and the vibe around the program is negative right now. Rutgers is the exact opposite. The team is improving and their head coach Steve Pikiell has this team at 7 conference wins after they ended with only 3 each of the last 2 years. Their lone meeting this year was a Rutgers win (76-69 final score) and that was when Nebraska still had Copeland in the line up. We think Rutgers should be favored here and we like the Knights to win this game.
|03-13-19||Colorado State v. Boise State -3||Top||57-66||Win||100||18 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -3 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET
Love this spot for Boise. They are in revenge mode here after throwing up a stinker at home vs CSU at the end of February. The Broncos lost that game 76-62 which was their worst home loss of the season. We considered CSU in that game but didn’t pull the trigger as Boise was in a terrible spot and we could see a flat performance coming for that game. That’s because the Broncos were off a brutal 3 game stretch in which they played 3 of the top 4 teams in the MWC (Utah St, Fresno St, and San Diego State) all to the wire and lost all 3. Watching their game vs CSU we could see the Broncos were burnt out both physically and mentally after their grueling stretch in which they had a legitimate shot at 3-0 but ended up 0-3. The Rams shot almost 60% in that game while Boise shot just 39%. If you simply look at BSU’s results down the stretch in looks like they were struggling. That is not the case. The did lose 6 of their last 7, however 5 of those 6 losses came down to the final seconds of each game. Their loss margins in those games were 1, 2, 6, 4 in OT, and 7 in OT with four of those setbacks coming on the road. This team is MUCH better than their 7-11 MWC record. They are 12-19 on the season yet they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 71-68! Despite finishing tied for 7th with 2 other teams, the Broncs power rate as the 5th best team in the MWC behind only Nevada, Utah St, Fresno, and San Diego St. CSU was in a fantastic spot on Saturday in their home finale facing a UNLV team with absolutely nothing to play for (already locked into a first round game vs San Diego State). Despite that, the Rams couldn’t get it done at home and lost by 5. After beating Boise in late February, the Rams went on to lose their final 3 games, 2 coming at home. One of their top shooters, Anthony Masinton-Bonner (11 PPG), might miss this one as well with an Achilles injury. Boise has the advantage of just playing at the Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas losing to UNLV by 4. CSU has not played here since January 3rd. We like Boise here to pick up a win and cover.
|03-12-19||Appalachian State +8 v. Louisiana-Monroe||Top||80-89||Loss||-109||6 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +8 over UL Monroe, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court. Their most recent meeting was @ UL Monroe in late February a game in which ULM won by 6. App State dominated the boards (+10) which led to 11 more shot attempts. However, Monroe shot the lights out hitting 51% overall and a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc. Even with Monroe hooting 7% above their season average and almost 20% above their seasonal 3-point average, the game went to the wire. The largest lead ULM had in the 2nd half was 8-points (which is tonight’s spread) until there was under 1:00 minute remaining and ASU was forced to foul. The spread then pushed to 10 but App State was able to pull within 6 to close out the game. We feel Appalachian State is a bit undervalued here. If you look at their conference record it tells you they are 6-12 on the year. However, they began the season 0-6 and went 6-6 from that point on. Of their 12 Sun Belt losses, 8 came by 7 points or less so they were competitive in a majority of their conference setbacks. The Mountaineers were 2-3 on the road since January 25th with their losses coming by 3 at Texas State (2nd rated team in the Sun Belt), by 10 at UT Arlington (4th rated team on the Sun Belt) and by 6 at Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks finished the regular season with a 9-9 conference record but they were just 5-7 over their last 12 games. Of their 9 Sun Belt wins, only 2 came by more than 10 points and both were vs Arkansas LR who finished tied for last in the league. ULM is the WORST defensive team in the Sun Belt in both defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% allowed. Tough to lay this many points with a team like that in a do or die setting where both teams should bring their best. We see this one playing out very similar to their meeting a few weeks ago and another down to the wire contest. Take the points. With Appalachian State.
|03-11-19||San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's||Top||62-69||Loss||-109||9 h 57 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego +5 over St Mary's, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2
This is a very unique situation which we feels favors San Diego. The Toreros have already played 3 games in the WCC tourney while this will be St Mary’s first. San Diego blew out Portland, Santa Clara, and a very good BYU team on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Those games were all at the same venue which is the Orleans in Las Vegas. Thus, not only is San Diego playing very well, they are used to this stadium. If this was their fourth game in four days, we’d obviously leave this game alone, however they had yesterday off. Meanwhile, St Mary’s drew a bye into the semi-finals and hasn’t played a game period since March 2nd. To have 9 days off at this point in the season, potentially ruining your season long rhythm as a team is not a good thing in our opinion. We expect the Gaels to be a bit off tonight because of the long layoff. San Diego is one of the most veteran teams in the nation starting 4 seniors and 1 junior. Their record this year (21-13) is actually a bit deceiving as they had 2 key players miss 9 combined games through the middle of the conference season. They finished 7th in the league but we view them as a top 4 team in the WCC and so do most power rankings. This type of team is very dangerous come tourney time as they are better than most think and playing with nothing to lose. On top of that, their talented seniors know this is their last go around and now they are just 2 wins away from the Big Dance. Their defense has been absolutely stellar in this tourney holding all 3 opponents to under 0.80 points per possession, including 3rd seeded BYU who they thumped 80-57 on Saturday! Their 3 wins in the WCC tourney have come by margins of 23, 20, and 17 points. St Mary’s is solid but down from past year’s in our ratings. They are beatable especially in this spot. The Gaels won both games vs San Diego this year however in 1 of those the Toreros were not at full strength. That should give this red hot, veteran San Diego team extra motivation tonight. We think they have a solid shot at the upset and getting +5 here is a nice cushion. Take San Diego.
|03-10-19||East Tennessee State v. Wofford UNDER 141||Top||72-81||Loss||-110||3 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 141 Points - ETSU vs Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET
These two met twice this year and both games were grinders for the most part. The final scores were both very deceiving as they put up 141 points in their first meeting and 154 in the 2nd meeting. The first game was on pace to go well under the total for the vast majority. In fact, the two teams had 124 combined points with just 1:40 remaining in the game. They scored 17 points from that point on to get to 141. If you divide the game up into 10 minute segments these two scored 33, 29, 33, and 46 points so you can see they went crazy late. In the second meeting the game was tied at 64-64 in regulation but went to OT where they ended up with 154 points. The points per possession numbers in that game were very high with both teams averaging more than 1.10 PPP yet they still only reached 128 in regulation. These are two of the top defensive teams in the SOCON (2nd and 4th in defensive efficiency) and the tempo shouldn’t be overly quick here with Wofford ranking last in tempo in the conference and ETSU ranking 6th. Both defenses have played better down the stretch than even their overall numbers indicate with Wofford allowing 60 PPG over their last 5 games on 41% shooting by their opponents while ETSU has allowed 67 PPG on 41% shooting during the same span. With the season on the line for both in this do or die game, we expect the defenses to play as hard as they have all season. Play the UNDER in this game.
|03-09-19||Tulsa v. Memphis -8||Top||63-66||Loss||-108||23 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis -8 over Tulsa, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET
We can’t imagine that Senior Night will mean more to any other team in the nation than Memphis. That’s because the Tigers start 5 seniors who will all be playing their final regular season home game on Saturday night. The Tigers have locked up the 5 seed in the upcoming AAC tourney and while some may view that as a negative (motivation?) we view it as a positive in this spot. They already know where they sit for next week’s conference tourney so they can go out and just play with no pressure whatsoever. They will have plenty of motivation with their seniors leading the way. The Tigers also out to avenge their worst loss of the conference season, a 96-79 setback @ Tulsa. We were on Tulsa in that game as it set up perfectly for the Golden Hurricane. They were at home off 3 straight losses vs the 3 top teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF). They were also catching Memphis going on the road after upsetting UCF by 20 points. The game played out just as we thought it would with Tulsa winning outright as an underdog. Memphis is playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses coming in tight games @ UCF and @ Cincinnati (by 2). They’ve had a full week to get ready for this home finale vs a Tulsa team that has played a very easy schedule down the stretch. They’ve faced ECU & Tulane, the two worst teams in the conference, both twice since February 14th. The other two teams they faced during that stretch both turned into double digit losses vs Temple and Wichita State. Tulsa is just 3-7 on the road this year and they’ve won only twice @ Memphis in the last 16 meetings. We like Memphis to roll up a big win at home on Saturday. Lay the points.
|03-09-19||Baylor v. Kansas -7||Top||70-78||Win||100||15 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday. We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year. However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss. They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game. They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games. While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record. They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots. 9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points. We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads. They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference. They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen. They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive. They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12. Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT). The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here. When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts! KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale.
|03-08-19||Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 140.5||Top||62-78||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 140.5 Points - Illinois State vs Drake, Friday at 7 PM ET
These two have played twice this year with neither game coming near the posted total. In their first match up the total was posted at 143 and they combined to score 124 points. Their more recent game was on February 24th and the oddsmakers dropped that total to 141 and they combined to score just 127. They weren’t terrible offensively as the two teams combined to shoot 45% over those 2 outings yet they still were very low scoring. That’s two meetings that went under the total by 33 combined points and it wasn’t as if both teams shot terribly. Now they’ve dropped this total to 139 but that’s not nearly a big enough adjustment in our opinion. Unless both surprisingly go off and hit 50%+ we don’t see this getting close to 1140. These two know each other very well and their third meeting should be no different than their first two meetings. They are playing at a neutral site in St Louis that has not been conducive to scoring. Last night the two MVC tourney games here totaled 132 and 125 points. Only one team out of four in yesterday’s play in games shot better than 40%. Drake will be playing their first game at this venue and Illinois State shot just 36% here last night vs an Evansville team that ranks 9th in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Long term the MVC tourney UNDERS have been big time money makers. Since 2005 the UNDERS in MVC tourney games here in St Louis are 85-44 (66%)!
|03-07-19||Cincinnati v. UCF -2||Top||55-58||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR
UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55. The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half. Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight. The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game. This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting. Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena. Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record. However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight. Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less. They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight. In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%. That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense. They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line. 40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC. That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games. This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation. A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go. We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight.
|03-06-19||Boise State v. New Mexico -1.5||Top||72-73||Loss||-109||11 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET
We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65. We’re right back on the Lobos at home here. We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year. New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process. Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game. The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other. The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge. They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall. The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351). On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise. They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs. Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81. That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play. New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play. They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late. The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games. They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games. That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired. We like New Mexico to win their home finale.
|03-06-19||Texas-San Antonio +6 v. Western Kentucky||Top||81-76||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET
These two met one time this season and we remember it well. We were on Western KY at home favored by 6. We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win. UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points. The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run. After that, they trailed for most of the game. WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points. The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line. We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here. Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road. Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out. They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference. Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70. On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points. They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season. Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG. In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY. A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY. We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around.
|03-06-19||Missouri v. Georgia -3.5||Top||64-39||Loss||-109||8 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET
Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points? We agree with the number. Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why. Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season. They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home. The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3. Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference. Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%. They were also plus on the boards during that stretch. Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents. The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season. They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points. The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time. They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio. Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road. That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover.
|03-05-19||Kansas v. Oklahoma +2||Top||68-81||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2
We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night. This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday. A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance. “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.” OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season. Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title. Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday. The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record. That has been the theme for this young KU team this year. They really can’t be trusted on the road. They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points. Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here. These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63. The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go. Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game. Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team. OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season. This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team. We’ll take the home dog.
|03-03-19||Michigan v. Maryland +1||Top||69-62||Loss||-115||23 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week
We love this situation for Maryland. The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday. That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game. On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland. Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53. Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home. Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few. These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win. The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep. They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game. One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home. Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG. Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good. The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%). We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%. The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road. They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State. We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home.
|03-02-19||Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5||Top||65-77||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET
This is a great spot for New Mexico. They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West. The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34. San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%. Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort. The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference). Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins. Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play. Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27! Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT. We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU. They are still just 3-7 away from home this season. The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home! New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made. Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team. With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season. Lay it with the Lobos
|03-02-19||Rutgers +9 v. Iowa||Top||86-72||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET
We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits. We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch. We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points. We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now. This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss. Rutgers is trending upward. They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid. That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game. Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday. Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run. They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch. Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending. In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining. Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win. Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well. Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG. Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making. We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana. Take the points.
|03-02-19||Kentucky v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||52-71||Win||100||3 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington. We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field. Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year. That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points. The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis. He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February. Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game. In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win. This will be their first road game without Travis. Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy. They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game. Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama. Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that. The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky. Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November. We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home.
|03-02-19||Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 157||Top||86-82||Loss||-115||2 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 157 Points - Northern Kentucky @ UW Green Bay, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET
UW Green Bay has really transformed from a run & gun high scoring, poor defensive team, into a team that doesn’t score as many points as it did earlier in the year and one that plays MUCH better defense than they had been. Despite that, the oddsmakers continue to set high totals on this team. Keep in mind UWGB has now gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Not only have they been going UNDER the total, they have been close with their last 5 games staying under the number by a combined 120 points or 24 points per game! Each of their last 5 games have stayed under by at least 10 points. The Phoenix allowed a whopping 88 PPG through their first 9 Horizon League games. Since then they have given up only 71 PPG over their last 8 games, an improvement of 17 PPG. Offensively they have scored only 69 PPG over their last 5. On Saturday they face an NKU defense that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st at defending the 3 point line. NKU is 1st in the Horizon in offensive efficiency, however they might be without their leading scorer Drew McDonald in this one as he sat out Thursday’s game @ Milwaukee with back spasms. The Norse only scored 65 points in that game and they held the Panthers to just 55 points. With a first round home game in the Horizon and a top 2 seed already locked up, we’d be surprised if McDonald played here. Even if he does, this total is set too high. NKU is very similar to Wright State (the top 2 teams in the league) who played @ UWGB on Thursday. Wright is #1 in defensive efficiency and #2 in offensive efficiency while NKU is #1 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They both play at a similar pace. Thursday game here ended with a final score of UWGB 70 – Wright State 67. We see a similar type game here with it staying well UNDER this hefty total.
|03-01-19||Siena +1.5 v. Canisius||Top||62-68||Loss||-104||7 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET
Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January. Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66. One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points. His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here. Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year. They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS). Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play. Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be. Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion. They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage). This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team. Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points. We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena.
|02-28-19||Arizona State v. Oregon -3||Top||51-79||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET
This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses. Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington. The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate. They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league. Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight. These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home. The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon. The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions. Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host. The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home. ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton). After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here. Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference). It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team. The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team. Interesting line move and we agree with it. Take Oregon.
|02-27-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa +2||Top||56-55||Win||100||3 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Northern Iowa +2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 8 PM ET
Loyola continues to get way too much respect this year in our opinion. This is not the team that made it to the Final 4 last season but they continue to be wagered as such. They have been bet up to a road favorite in this game vs a team that is 9-7 in MVC play and one game out of first place behind Loyola, Missouri State, and Drake. We’ve faded the Ramblers on the road a number of times this year with very good success. That includes just a few days ago when we sided with Southern Illinois -1 at home vs Loyola and they Salukis went on to win 63-53. The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU their last 5 road games with their lone win during that stretch coming @ Valpo by a final score of 56-51. It was a game that Valpo led 9 with 7:00 minutes remaining and went on to score just 8 points the remainder of the game. Now they are on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days facing perhaps the hottest team in the MVC. Northern Iowa has won 4 consecutive games, all by double digits. One of those wins was a 63-43 trouncing of Missouri State (tied with Loyola & Drake for 1st place) on the road. Just before their 4 games run UNI lost a very tight game @ Drake (another 1st place team) in a game that had 19 lead changes. So the Panthers have played the other 2 first place teams recently, beating one handily on the road and taking the other to the wire on the road. Now they get to face their 3rd first place team but they get to do it at home on Senior Night with a chance to potentially move into a tie for first place with a win. UNI is confident and playing their best basketball of the year. They have outscored their last 5 opponents by an average score of 70-60 while making 47% of their shots and holding their opponents to 41%. On the season they rank #2 in offensive efficiency in MVC play while ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency. While Loyola does rank 1st in offensive efficiency, they are 8th in defensive efficiency and 10th (last) in eFG% defense. Last year’s Loyola team ranked 1st in both of those defensive categories. As we said, this team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s squad though people continue to think they are. When these two faced off @ Loyola earlier this year NIU took the Ramblers to the wire losing 61-60. Now the Panthers are playing much better than they were at that time and they are at home. We have now doubt that Northern Iowa is the better team right now and they are getting points at home. We’ll take it.
|02-26-19||Texas A&M +12 v. LSU||Top||55-66||Win||100||5 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +12 over LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPN2
This is a fantastic situational spot to go against this young LSU team. While this is a very good Tiger team, keep in mind they play 4 freshmen in their 7 man rotation. They are coming off back to back overtime games as well heading into this one. On Saturday, they played host to Tennessee in a game with huge SEC implications. The Vols led almost the entire game and did lead the entire 2nd half until 1:20 remaining when LSU was able to tie it. The game went to OT and the Tigers won on a crazy end of game situation in which a Tennessee player was called for a foul going for an offensive rebound on his end of the court with 0.6 seconds remaining in a tie game. The Tigers were in no position to win the game as they ball was not even in their offensive zone when the foul was called. LSU made both FT’s and won in OT 82-80. They are bound to have a letdown here after that win which was preceded by another OT game (loss to Florida) as we mentioned. Not only that, they are facing a team they beat by 15 points earlier this year. You can bet this freshmen laden team will have trouble bringing their “A” game tonight. A&M is playing much better then than were when these two faced off in January. Despite their 12-14 overall record, the Aggies have quietly won 4 of their last 5 games and have played 6 solid outings in a row. In their game vs LSU in January, the Aggies shot just 33% overall and 3 of 21 from deep (14%). Even with that horrible offensive performance, A&M still only lost by 15 which would be fairly close to this number tonight. While LSU is 12-2 in SEC play, they’ve won only 3 of those by more than 10 points. The Tigers last 7 games have all been decided by 5 points or less. This is a bit of a dangerous game for LSU vs a surging A&M team that has now covered 7 of their last 8 road games. The Tigers will most likely get this win at home in the end, but it should be much closer than most think. Take the points here.
|02-26-19||Iowa v. Ohio State -3.5||Top||70-90||Win||100||3 h 30 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET
This game is MUCH, MUCH bigger for Ohio State. The Buckeyes sit at 17-10 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play. Most NCAA projections have them barely in the tourney right now (10 seed or so). After this game they play back to back road games and then close with Wisconsin here. They simply cannot afford to lose this game vs Iowa. A win would be a resume builder vs a solid (but overrated in our opinion) Iowa Hawkeye team. OSU has lost 3 of their last 4 games but two of those games were on the road vs top tier Big Ten opponents Michigan State & Maryland. Their most recent home game was a 14-point win over Northwestern. The Bucks struggle at times to score but they are much better at putting the ball in the basket at home where they average 75 PPG on 48% shooting. They should also have a chance to thrive offensively tonight due to their opponent as the Iowa Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. OSU is much better on that end of the court ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and they gave the Hawkeyes some problems in their first meeting. That game vs OSU was just one of five games this season that Iowa was held to a offensive efficiency rating of below 100. Even though the Hawks had problems with this Buckeye defense in Iowa City, they still won by 10 due to a +10 advantage in made FT’s for the game (+14 in FT attempts). OSU also had season high 21 turnovers in that game which contributed to a number of Iowa points. Ohio State point guard CJ Jackson sat out last weekend’s loss @ Maryland but he did practice on Sunday and seems likely to play tonight which will give this team a boost. Iowa looks to us like a team that is faltering a bit right now. They are 10-6 overall in the Big Ten but their last 5 games have been shaky at best. Those games include a tight 5-point win @ Indiana, a 1-point home win vs Northwestern (buzzer beater), a 2-point miracle buzzer beater win @ Rutgers, a loss at home vs Maryland, and a OT win last weekend at home vs Indiana. Their road wins in league play have come against Rutgers (miracle shot), Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State – 4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the Big Ten. Last year OSU was laying -14.5 on this court vs Iowa and now we’re looking at -3 to -3.5 just one year later. The unranked Buckeyes are favored by a possession or more vs #22 Iowa? Hmmm… We like Ohio State here.
|02-24-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +1||53-63||Win||100||4 h 47 m||Show|
ASA play on: #824 Southern Illinois +1 over Loyola Chicago, 4PM ET – The first thing that jumped out to us was the line on this game and the value. These same two teams recently met in Loyola which had the Ramblers as a 5-point favorite at some Books. That tells us the Salukis should be -3.5-points here just based on the previous meeting. When you also look at Southern Illinois most recent home game which had them a -5.5-point favorite at home against Drake who rates the same as Loyola in our power rankings. Loyola is 3-3 SU their last six games and have allowed their last five opponents to shoot an average of 47%. On the road this season the Ramblers have a negative differential of -4.4-points per game. Southern Illinois has held foes to under 42% shooting in their building this season and have won 3 of their last four at home. The Salukis are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the MVC and those second chance opportunities will be the difference in this huge conference game.
|02-23-19||Utah v. Washington State +1.5||Top||92-79||Loss||-109||5 h 58 m||Show|
CBB PLAY ON Washington State +1.5 over Utah, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - WSU is flying a bit under the radar right now due to their overall season record of just 11-15. First off, four of those losses came when the Cougars were without Robert Franks who is one of the top players in the Pac 12. Franks is back and playing his best basketball of the season averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 contests. He leads the Pac 12 in scoring at 22 PPG and the 6’9 senior also averages almost 8 RPG. The Cougs are 4-9 in league play, however Franks missed the first 3 conference games due to an injury so with him in the line up they are a respectable 4-6 in Pac 12 play. WSU is playing their best basketball of the season right now winning 3 of their last 4 games. They’ve done so playing against some of the top teams in the league beating ASU (#2 rated team in the Pac 12) on the road, beating Arizona on the road, losing to Washington (by far the #1 team on the league) by just 2 points and they topped Colorado here on Wednesday. Over their last 5 the Cougars are averaging 78 PPG and winning by an average margin of 6 PPG. They are also well rested as they had a full week off from Feb 9th to Feb 16th and have only played 2 games since. Utah comes in trending downward losing 4 of their last 7 games. They are one of the youngest teams in the Pac 12 starting 3 freshmen who seem to be hitting a wall. That includes 2nd leading scorer Timmy Allen (12 PPG) who was out due to a back injury in the Utes 62-45 loss @ Washington on Wednesday. He will be a game time decision for this one. Utah, unlike WSU, is not rested as they will be playing their 4th game in 10 days. When these two met in January, the Utes rolled to an 18-point win shooting 55% to just 35% for WSU. Keep in mind, Franks, who was spoke about above, was out for the Cougars in that game. He makes a huge difference on both ends of the court. The host has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and these are two completely different teams than the ones that met over a month ago. Washington State keeps playing well and they get the win at home.
|02-21-19||Georgia State v. Appalachian State +2||Top||80-75||Loss||-109||4 h 48 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record? Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite. That would be a mistake in our opinion. App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward. They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games. Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball. They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points. It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT. They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington. That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them. They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch. They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%. Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion. They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4. All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games. Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play. Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games. GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home. They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable. Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74. App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79. These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.
|02-20-19||Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 128||Top||49-63||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Northwestern @ Ohio State, Wed at 8:30 PM ET
These are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten (OSU 11th & Northwestern 14th) and both are currently in big time slumps on that end of the court. Northwestern has made only 37% of their shots over the last 5 games and they are averaging just 57 PPG during that span. They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) averaging just 60 PPG. Over their last 6 games the Cats have topped 56 points just once and that was vs an up tempo Iowa team (2nd in Big Ten tempo) that is poor defensively (14th in conference in defensive efficiency). Ohio State hasn’t been much better. Over their last 5 games the Buckeyes have made only 42% of their shots and they are averaging 61 PPG. They have been held to 56 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. OSU ranks 12th in the Big Ten (conference games) in scoring putting up only 64 PPG. Defensively these teams are far ahead of the offenses. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 nationally in eFG% defense. Both teams are slower paced (257th and 298th nationally) and neither gets to the FT line very often (12th and 10th in the Big Ten in FTA/FGA). Ohio State may also be a bit undermanned tonight as starting guard CJ Jackson (13 PPG) injured his ankle over the weekend @ Michigan State and is not at 100%. He may play, but it looks like he will be limited if he does. We don’t see either of these struggling offenses getting back on track tonight and we envision a defensive grinder. This total opened at 124 and has pushed up to 128 and we agree with the oddsmakers number. The value is on the UNDER here and we’ll play it.
|02-19-19||Florida State v. Clemson -1||Top||77-64||Loss||-105||6 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Clemson -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET
We think the Tigers come into this one a bit undervalued. They are just 15-10 on the season and only 5-7 in league play. However, they are 4-3 their last 7 games and their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 1, and 2 points all on the road. They took a very good Louisville team to the wire on the road Saturday only to see the Cards win by a point. This Clemson team is better than their record. They returned 4 starters from last year’s team that finished 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16. They are now backed into a corner at home in a must win spot. They are 4-1 in ACC play at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Virginia. The Tigers are fantastic defensively (13th nationally in defensive efficiency) but they have struggled on offense at times. At home they seem to play much better on that end of the court shooting 47% and averaging 72 PPG here at Littlejohn Coliseum. FSU comes in a bit overvalued in our minds after winning 7 straight games. Keep in mind the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule thus far in the ACC yet they still are only 8-4 in league play. With all of Clemson’s close losses, the Tigers could also be sitting with a similar record if a few bounces had gone their way. FSU has just played the 2 worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech & Wake, their last 2 games winning each big giving them a false sense of security. The Noles also have a huge game on deck with North Carolina so a look ahead wouldn’t be surprising especially playing a Clemson team they already beat in Tallahassee this year. Florida State is 3-3 on the road in ACC play but two of those losses have come to lower tier teams Pitt & Boston College. Last year Clemson, with basically the same line up, beat FSU here by 13 points as a 3-point favorite. Now they are laying only 1 point in a must win spot. The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and this is a MUCH bigger game for Clemson. We’ll side with the Tigers.
|02-19-19||Alabama -1.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||56-65||Loss||-109||6 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET
We had been very successful this season when playing on or against Bama heading into last Saturday. We felt the Tide were in a great spot at home vs Florida and they laid an egg as the Gators blew them out in Tuscaloosa. We’ll come back with the Crimson Tide here and expect a very good performance off that embarrassing home effort. Head coach Avery Johnson was livid with Saturday’s effort and said he’d do whatever it takes to win, including benching players that don’t put forth the effort needed. The players go the message as starting guard John Petty stated yesterday, “I guarantee you’ll see a whole nother team coming out on Tuesday.” Bama is officially on the NCAA bubble and a loss here would be devastating. As expected, the Tide have struggled to beat the top teams in the SEC on the road, however the lower tier teams they’ve proven they can beat. The 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC, by a fairly wide margin, are Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mizzou. The Tide have played 2 of those teams on the road this year beating both Mizzou and Vandy by double digits. A&M started the SEC season losing 8 of their first 9 conference games. Then last week they beat Mizzou & Georgia, two of the worst teams in the SEC, to get to 3-8. Over the weekend they blew a double digit lead vs South Carolina and lost by 7. That could very well be a demoralizing loss for this team and lingers into this match up. The Aggies have had no home court advantage this year losing 6 of their last 8 home games. They sit right near the bottom of the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency (13th & 14th). Bama also has a bit more incentive here as they led A&M for 37 of the 40 minutes in Tuscaloosa but lost by 1-point on a off-balance, banked in 3-pointer at the buzzer. Bama is the better team and they a lot of motivation here for the reasons discussed. Where this line sits they really only have to win the game so we’ll take Alabama.
|02-19-19||Bradley +4.5 v. Drake||Top||68-77||Loss||-115||5 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Bradley +4.5 over Drake, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
The Braves came into the season with very high expectations with the majority of their key contributors returning from a 20-13 team. After going just 8-10 their first 18 games including 0-5 to start Missouri Valley play, this talented team was definitely headed in the wrong direction. That all turned around on January 20th when this team pulled the upset at Southern Illinois to pick up their first conference win. They are now 7-2 their last 9 games, including 4 road wins. Their offense struggled early in the year but over their last 8 games this team has made 47% of their 3-pointers (3 best in the nation during that stretch) and 49% of their shots overall. That has catapulted this team that already had a very good defense (2nd in MVC in defensive efficiency & eFG% defense) and they are at the top of their game right now. Their most recent two games were wins over 2 of the best teams in the league as they topped Loyola Chicago at home and then won @ Illinois State over the weekend. The oddmakers have not caught up to this team as the last 8 times they’ve been an underdog, they’ve won 6 of those games outright. Drake is tied for first place in the conference and just picked up their 20th win by holding on at home to beat Valpo by 5 over the weekend. It’s their first 20 win season since 2007 so a bit of a letdown after achieving that major goal wouldn’t be a shocker. Unlike Bradley, the Bulldogs aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year. They are 4-2 their last 6 games, however all 4 of those wins have come by 6 points or less. Their point differential over their last 5 games is dead even as they are averaging 74 PPG and allowing 74 PPG. They already won @ Bradley back in early January when the Braves were faltering. Bradley attempted 11 more shots in that first match up but made only 31% overall and only 20% from beyond the arc. They are playing much better now and we expect a solid performance from the Braves who have a little extra motivation due to that first match up. The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright and we give Bradley a great shot to win here. There is a reason the 20-win, 1st place team is only favored by 4 facing the team that is 7-7 in conference play. Take Bradley.
|02-18-19||Illinois +9.5 v. Wisconsin||Top||58-64||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois +9.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - On Fox Sports 1
These two met back in January and Wisconsin (-4) won the game 72-60 and looking at the final stats it wasn’t surprising. The Badgers shot over 50% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. They also hit 81% at the FT line. Illinois, on the other hand, made just 35% of their shots and a paltry 19% from deep. Even with that, the game was not a blowout. It landed right around where tonight’s number sits. Since that game the Illini have played very well winning 5 of their last 6 games heading into tonight. It’s not as if they are beating all lower tier Big Ten teams either as they’ve knocked off Michigan State, Maryland, and Ohio State during that stretch. The Illini have really turned up the heat defensively as their pressure defense ranks #1 in the Big Ten at creating turnovers. While Wisconsin is normally tight with the ball, they did cough it up 17 times @ Illinois or 25% of their possessions which is very high. To give you an idea, that number would rank them dead last in the Big Ten by a lot. Those turnovers led the Illinois taking 15 more shot attempts, the problem was they shot so terribly they couldn’t take advantage of it. We think that changes tonight as the Illini have played very well offensively as well shooting 46% and averaging 77 PPG their last 5. The Badgers are off back to back huge games vs Michigan & Michigan State, both went to the wire and they lost both. UW’s offense has not topped 69 points in their last 6 games and they are only averaging 59 PPG their last 5. While their defense has been very good, we don’t see them completely shutting down Illinois tonight. We see Wisconsin having a tough time pulling away in a lower scoring type game. The Badgers should win this one, however we think it will be fairly close. Take the points.
|02-17-19||Seton Hall v. Creighton -4.5||Top||81-75||Loss||-110||4 h 39 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET
These two just met on February 9th with Seton Hall coming away with a 63-58 win. The Jays offense was outright abysmal in that game yet they still took the Hall to the wire. Creighton, who ranks 5th nationally in eFG% offense and 9th nationally in 3-point FG%, shot just 30% from the field and only 28% from deep in that game. They were a ridiculously bad 6 of 22 in that game at the rim (layups) and again, even with that performance, it was a 1-point game with 10 seconds remaining. The Jays are finally back home after a 3 game road trip that saw them go 0-3. They hit a shooting slump during that 3 game span, but as stated all were on the road. Even during their offensive slump, they Blue Jays were competitive during that road trip losing in OT @ Villanova, losing in OT @ Xavier, and then losing @ Seton Hall by 5. Their defense has been playing very well and keeping them in games. Now what happens when their offense breaks out and they shoot it like they are capable? We’d say an easy win and we expect that today. Creighton shoots much better at home hitting over 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The game before they left on their 3 game road trip the Jays beat Xavier here by 22 points. Seton Hall has won 3 of their last 4 but all of those wins were at home. On the road it’s been a different story for this team. After winning their Big East road opener at Xavier, the Pirates have gone on to lose 5 straight away from home. They are averaging just 67 PPG on the road while Creighton puts up over 80 PPG at home. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and the last two games here in Omaha saw the Jays win by 17 & 14 points. We expect Creighton to break out of their mini slump and shoot very well at home today. That leads to an easy, quick revenge win over Seton Hall.
|02-16-19||Arizona State +2 v. Utah||Top||98-87||Win||100||24 h 48 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1
We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both. We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play). ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us. We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73. We’re back on Arizona State here. We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board. They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State. They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton. It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good. If not, they tend to play down to their competition. ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah. In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs. They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line. Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game). That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP. That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win. It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it. The Devils will be ready here. Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12. Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon. Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above). Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona. It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona. This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten. The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12. The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night.
|02-16-19||IUPU Ft Wayne +3.5 v. Nebraska-Omaha||71-74||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON IPFW +3.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET
We might see UNO come out a bit flat here. They just won a huge home game on Thursday night beating 1st place South Dakota State by 1 point. It was a game they trailed by 16 in the 2nd half and made a furious rally for the win. Omaha trailed for most of the game but scored with 1 second left for the 85-84 win. It’s going to be tough for the Mavs to come back again just 2 days later and play at their peak vs a team they already beat this year. These two met just a few weeks ago and IPFW was a -3.5 point favorite at home. IPFW led by 17 with 12:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew the lead and lost at home in overtime. The Mastodons have been a solid road team this year winning 4 of their 6 Summit League road games. They sit at 9-3 overall in conference play, just a half game behind Saturday’s opponent Nebraska Omaha who is in 2nd place at 9-2. These two offenses are nearly dead even ranking 1st (Omaha) and 2nd (IPFW) in Summit League play. However, Fort Wayne has the edge defensively ranking better than UNO in most of the key categories. The underdog is 11-1 ATS in this series and we like IPFW to pull off the upset here. Take the points.
|02-16-19||Florida v. Alabama -3||71-53||Loss||-110||16 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -3 over Florida, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
We’ve been successful using Alabama at home getting ATS wins vs Ole Miss & Mississippi State. We also faded the Tide on Tuesday of this week when they traveled to Mississippi State and picked up an easy win. That’s a perfect 3-0 ATS for us this year when we play on or against Alabama. We expect another win on Saturday as we take the Crimson Tide at home. They’ve been very good at Coleman Coliseum picking up home wins vs 3 of the top 5 teams on in the SEC (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss). The other two teams rated in the top 5 (Tennessee & LSU) have not yet played @ Bama. Their only home loss in SEC play was vs A&M by 1-point on a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer by the Aggies. We like this spot for the Tide back at home after a loss. They shoot very well here and are averaging 80 PPG on their home court. That’s a tough situation for a Florida team that struggles offensively, especially on the road. In their 7 true road games, the Gators are averaging only 60 PPG while shooting a terrible 37%. They’ve only topped 62 points one time this year on the road in SEC play. They have won only one SEC road game and that was vs a Georgia team that is the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference. Three of the Gators five conference wins have come vs the bottom 3 teams in the league (Georgia, Vandy, and A&M). They are the worst in the conference at getting points inside the arc, yet they aren’t a great 3-point shooting team (33% in SEC games – 9th in the league). They also rarely get to the FT line. You can see why this team struggles to score. They won’t get many extra chances either as Alabama is the much better rebounding team ranking 5th in the SEC compared to Florida who is dead last. The Gators come in off a win over the worst team in the conference (Vandy) now facing a Bama team that is 4-1 SU following a conference loss this season. Alabama has already beaten 3 teams at home that are better than Florida and we see no reason they don’t win this one. Take the Crimson Tide
|02-16-19||Detroit v. Green Bay -4.5||73-82||Win||100||15 h 30 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON UW Green Bay -4.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET
This game has a number of solid situations in favor of Green Bay. First Detroit is playing their 4th consecutive road game in just 10 days. After getting blown out at Northern Kentucky and at Wright State, the Titans were able to pull off a small upset on Thursday night beating UW Milwaukee by 6. The Panthers actually outplayed Detroit making 10 more field goals and outrebounding the Titans. So how did Detroit pull off the win? The foul disparity was ridicuously lopsided with Detroit making 31 FTs to just 7 for the home team. You don’t often see a home team get “reverse homered” by the refs like that. Good thing for Detroit as despite being +24 at the FT line the game vs UWM still went to the wire. Don’t expect Detroit to get that benefit on Saturday. That win pushed the Titans road record to 4-11 on the season with 3 of those wins coming against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Horizon League (Cleveland St, Youngstown St, and Milwaukee). This team is simply not used to success away from home going just 9-36 SU their last 45 road games. In their 15 road games Detroit is averaging 67 PPG (way down from their home average of 79 PPG) and shooting only 39%. That won’t keep up here vs a UWGB team that averages 85 PPG at home having scored at least 90 points in 7 of their 11 at home (9-2 home record). The Phoenix have been waiting patiently for this rematch. They went to Detroit earlier in the season in a pick-em game and the Titans dominated 101-82 making over 53% of their shots. It was by far the most points GB has given up in conference play this year and they were embarrassed by their effort on that end of the court. They played very well defensively on Thursday holding a high scoring Oakland team (75 PPG average) to just 54 points in the 12-point Green Bay win. We expect that to carry over here and we’re positive they’ll be very focused defensively and remember, Detroit has been poor offensively on the road this year. Speaking of poor, when the Titans lose on the road, it’s not close as all 11 of their road losses have come by double digits. Green Bay gets a big win on Saturday.
|02-14-19||BYU v. San Diego -2.5||Top||88-82||Loss||-110||5 h 17 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now. We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga. They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley). San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few. So why are they just 5-5 in league play? Injuries. Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January. Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game. That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters. They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine. San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out. This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season. BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued. They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC. However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight. The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively. Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy. Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13. Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13. Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year. The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego. This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.
|02-14-19||Illinois v. Ohio State OVER 144||Top||63-56||Loss||-109||2 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 144 Points - Illinois @ Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET
These two met earlier this year and with the total set at 143.5, the final score was OSU 77-67 pushing the game OVER by a half point and landing exactly on the set total for this evening. However, neither team was special on offense in that game as the two combined to make just 39% of their shots. From 3-point land the combined to make only 12 of 36 for just 33%. So how did they get to 144 points in that game? Free throws were a big factor as they combined to make 46 from the charity stripe. We don’t expect that to change much tonight as these teams send their opponents to the FT line more than any other in the Big Ten (Illinois ranks 14th in the league and OSU ranks 13th). However we do expect the other offensive aspects of the game (shooting) to improve from their last meeting. The Illini are playing very well right now, especially on offense. They are the fastest paced team in the Big Ten and they have scored 99, 79, 78, 75, and 71 points their last 5 games. That includes 79 in a win vs Michigan State and 78 in a win over Maryland, the 3rd and 4th most efficient defenses in the Big Ten. While the Illinois offense is playing the best they have all season, the defense remains an issue. They put pressure on opponents but they foul A LOT as we mentioned above. They rank 14th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense, 10th in 3-point FG% defense, 13th in 2-point FG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency. They allow 76 PPG in conference play which is tied with Iowa for worst in the Big Ten. OSU is off an offensive clunker @ Indiana on Sunday a game in which they won 55-52. The Bucks put up only 0.93 points per possession in that game while holding Indiana to a terrible 0.88 PPP. They should look much better tonight at home where they shoot 48% and average 77 PPG and they are facing the worst defensive team in the conference. Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 76-68 type win for OSU. We think both teams eclipse those projected numbers and this goes OVER.
|02-13-19||Arizona State v. Colorado -1||Top||73-77||Win||100||6 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -1 over Arizona State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1
We were on ASU on Saturday night as they were a small favorite vs an undefeated (in Pac 12 play) Washington. We thought the game set up very well with ASU coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to Washington St while UW was off a rare win @ Arizona. On top of that a few of the Husky players were under the weather. The game worked out as planned with the Devils rolling up a double digit win. Now off that huge home win we’ll fade them here on the road. Colorado is playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 3 straight including back to back road wins @ UCLA & @ USC. The Buffs have won 4 of their last 6 games and one of their losses came by 2 points to Oregon State in a game they led at half and was back and forth down the stretch. They could easily on a 5-1 run right now. CU is 8-2 at home this year and they’ve won 26 of their last 32 games here at the Coors Event Center. Their offense has been MUCH better at home where they are shooting 49% and scoring 83 PPG and if you remove their one outlier road performance (95 points @ Air Force) the Buffs average just 68 PPG on the road. Arizona State has been all over the board this year. They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State this season. They’ve also lost to Princeton, Washington State, and Vanderbilt. Their losses to Princeton & Washington State came after huge wins over Kansas & Arizona. We see a pattern here and would be surprised if the Sun Devils are at their best tonight after giving Washington their first conference loss. These two met back in early January and CU played one of their worst games of the season in a 83-61 loss. The Buffs shot 33% for the game while ASU hit nearly 58% of their shots. That should give Colorado a little extra motivation tonight. Just a few weeks ago the Buffs were laying -3 here vs Washington, easily the best team in the Pac 12. Now they are laying just -1 vs Arizona State. The host has covered 11 of the last 12 and we like Colorado to pick up another win.
|02-12-19||San Diego State v. Colorado State +3||Top||71-60||Loss||-109||7 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado State +3 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPN2
SDSU is simply not trustworthy as a road favorite. This team isn’t nearly as good as past editions yet the continue to get respect as if they are. The Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the road in MWC play with their only win coming @ San Jose State who is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 342nd out of 351). They have been a terrible road favorite this year as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games outright when laying points on the road. Their most recent was last week when they were favored in this range @ New Mexico and lost by 13 (we were on New Mexico in that game). It’s also a bad spot for SDSU as they are off a huge home win over Utah State (2nd ranked team in the MWC) and they have a big home revenger on deck vs Boise State this weekend. Colorado State is just 4-7 in league play however they’ve faced the toughest schedule in league play. Nearly half of their games have come against the top 3 teams in the league as they’ve already faced Nevada twice, Fresno twice, and Utah State once. Of their 7 conference losses, 5 have come against the top 4 teams in the league. The Rams are 3-2 at home in Mountain West play with their only losses coming to Nevada (best team in the league and one of the best in the nation) and by 2 points to Boise State (5th rated team in the conference). They’ve also beaten Fresno (8-3 in conference play) here at Moby Arena. San Diego State is ripe to go down AGAIN as a road favorite and we’ll be on Colorado State in this game.
|02-12-19||Alabama v. Mississippi State -5.5||Top||62-81||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -5.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET
These two met just 2 weeks ago and Bama -2 came out on top 83-79 (we were on Bama in that game). The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner at home in this one and this has become pretty much a must win spot. MSU if off 2 straight down to the wire home losses vs two of the top three teams in the SEC. Last week they lost in OT by 4 points to LSU and over the weekend they were ousted by a red hot Kentucky team by 4 points. The Bulldogs were in a position to win both of those games but did not. Now at 4-6 in league play, they need this win for their NCAA hopes. Mississippi State has lost 4 of their last 6 games but those setbacks were vs Kentucky (twice), LSU, and this Alabama team on the road. That is a tough stretch and the losses were not surprising. After this game, MSU leaves for a 2 game road trip after this game so a loss could be devastating. Bama comes in off 2 straight wins, however unlike MSU playing the top of the conference teams, the Tide beat Georgia & Vandy, the two lowest rated teams in the SEC. They are 2-5 in road games this season with their only wins coming @ Vandy (lowest rated team in the SEC) and @ Mizzou in OT (4th lowest rated team in the SEC). This is Alabama’s 2nd road game in 4 days after beating Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Tide might also be without two key big man reserves tonight (Reese & Smith) who played key roles in their win over MSU a few weeks ago. We think this sets up very nicely for the Bulldogs and we’ll lay the points here.
|02-12-19||Purdue v. Maryland +2.5||Top||56-70||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET
Our power ratings have the Terps favored by 1 in this game so we’ll take the value as they are getting 2.5 points. The closest comparison we can use was when Maryland was at home vs Wisconsin just a few weeks ago and the Terps were favored by -3.5 in that game. This line is currently a full 6-points from where that line was released despite the fact that the Badgers and Boilers are dead even in our power ratings (even on a neutral court). Maryland is just happy to be playing a home game (where they are 5-0 SU in Big 10 play) as they’ve been on the road for 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve played just one home game since January 14th. The Boilers, on the other hand, have been at home for 3 of their last 4 games. They have played 5 conference road games this year and they are 3-2 in those games with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime. However, on the road against the top 6 conference teams, Purdue has a 1-2 record with their only win @ Wisconsin in OT. Tonight they face the 5th rated Big 10 team on the road and they have faced a top 6 team on the road since January 11th. Purdue relies too heavily on the 3-pointer (40% of their points which ranks 14th nationally) and too much on 1 player Carsen Edwards. While they have been very good, we have a feeling those two things will catch up with them on the road vs good teams. The fact is Maryland is actually a better 3-point shooting team (#1 in the Big Ten at 39.7%) and they are facing a Purdue defense that doesn’t defend the arc very well allowing 37% (12th in the league). The Terps are also the best rebounding team in the league by quite a large margin (+9 rebound margin) and they have been plus rebounds in every Big Ten game this season. That should give them extra opportunities at home tonight and if they can slow down Purdue’s perimeter game, they should win this game. If it comes down to FT’s down the stretch, also keep in mind Maryland is the best FT shooting team in the Big 10 at 76.3%. These two met in early December when this young Maryland team was still finding their way and they almost pulled the upset in West Lafayette losing by 2. Tonight they get the home win. Take Maryland.
|02-10-19||Ohio State v. Indiana -2||Top||55-52||Loss||-105||14 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times. IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8. OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6. The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games. They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State. Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing. IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers. Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4. Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska). The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG. Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%. OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team. The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation. IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here. We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win.
|02-09-19||Washington v. Arizona State +1.5||Top||63-75||Win||100||24 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN
Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right? The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4. We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago. Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60. The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game. It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012. Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State. That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances. This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few. With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61. This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington. We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean. Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even. The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be. As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12. They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road. Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed. The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall. Take Arizona State at home.
|02-09-19||Texas v. West Virginia +5||75-53||Loss||-110||22 h 35 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON West Virginia +5 over Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - On ESPN2
We feel this WVU team is a very dangerous one at home. They are having a down year with a record of just 10-13 overall, however they are a very good program that is very well coached under Bob Huggins. We felt they’d get much better as they season has gone on and they have, especially at home. They have won 2 of their last 3 home games with wins over Kansas & Oklahoma. After their win over the Sooners here last Saturday, WVU went on the road and got smoked to Texas Tech which wasn’t a huge surprise off their big home win. It’s also helping the line value here in our opinion. Texas is off a big home win over a red hot Baylor team. The Horns also have a huge home game on deck next week vs 1st place Kansas State. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns who are just 1-5 SU on the road in conference play. UT has simply been a terrible road team in Big 12 play winning just 2 of their last 23 conference road games. Not only are they being asked to win this road game – which they obviously very rarely do – they need to win by a solid margin as a road favorite. These two met in January @ Texas and the Horns were far from dominant in the 61-54 home win. WVU has confidence here after their recent play at home and that should be bolstered by the way they played @ Texas last month. We think the Mountaineers have a solid shot at the win here and we’ll take the points.
|02-09-19||Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5||70-63||Loss||-110||20 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Baylor -2.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN2
The Bears are in a great spot at home for this game. Baylor was red hot winning 6 straight games (4 by double digits) before losing @ Texas earlier this week. That dropped them to 7-3 in league play, 1-game behind their opponent on Saturday, KSU. The catch the Wildcats in a definite letdown spot as they won their “game of the year” earlier this week beating arch rival Kansas (we were on KSU). While the Wildcats are not a great offensive team, they rely heavily on their defense to win games. The problem for KSU besides the situation is this, Baylor’s defensive numbers are nearly just as good as KSU’s yet the Bears offense is much better. They both allow just 41% shooting on the year so a wash there, Baylor’s offense ranks #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, #1 in eFG%, and #1 in 3-point FG%. The Bears are also the best offensive rebounding team AND the best defensive rebounding team in the conference so their opponents do not get many extra opportunities while Baylor does. With their marksmanship from deep (40% and #1 in the conference) the Bears should be able to take advantage of a Wildcat defense that is dead last in the league defending the arc. We expect Kansas State to have problems on offense as they shoot just 39% on the road this year. BU has covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS setback coming by a point and half. This sets up perfectly in our opinion and we’ll lay the small number with Baylor.
|02-09-19||Villanova v. Marquette -1.5||65-66||Loss||-109||16 h 8 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Marquette -1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET on FOX
It’s pretty much a Marquette – Villanova battle for the Big East Title. With 8 games remaining Nova sits at 10-0 with Marquette at 8-2 – everyone else has at least 5 losses. Nova is off an OT win at home on Wednesday over Creighton. Three Wildcat starters topped 40 minutes in that game. The Cats are very thin with Jay Wright normally playing just 7 players so that could be a factor here off a big OT win. Marquette comes in off a 1-point home loss on Tuesday to St Johns. It was the Eagles first home loss of the season. That game was on Tuesday giving them an extra day to prepare and with the game at home, really 2 extra days to prepare. The Wildcats offense has look very good as of late but keep in mind they’ve played 6 straight games vs teams ranked 5th or lower in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Now they face a much improved Marquette defense that ranks #1 in the conference in eFG% defense and 2nd in defensive efficiency. At home, Marquette has held opponents to just 62 PPG on 37% shooting. Offensively the Eagles rank #1 in the Big East in 3-point FG% (40%), #1 in FT% (79%) and 3rd in eFG%. They have shot very well at the new Fiserv Forum (Bucks NBA Arena) which is a big arena which has been tough on opponents with only 2 of their 15 foes reaching 1.00 point per possession here. We expect the Wildcats to have some problems offensively while Marquette should play well on that end of the court vs a Villanova defense that allows 48% on the road. Marquette is 14-1 at home and have beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Buffalo here at Fiserv. This is pretty much a must win game for Marquette or they fall 3 full games behind Nova. Coming off their first home loss, we like the Eagles to win this one.
|02-07-19||Cincinnati v. Memphis +4.5||Top||69-64||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET
We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5). They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses. On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records. The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC. Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference. They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4. Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate. The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4. That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season. But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team. They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee. The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here. Cincy is vulnerable on the road. They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league). Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.
|02-06-19||LSU v. Mississippi State -3||Top||92-88||Loss||-108||5 h 20 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt
The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion. They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida). LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss. Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4. Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win. It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally. The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost. We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road. Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race. They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday. The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark. MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits. We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in. Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas. We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.
|02-06-19||Maryland v. Nebraska UNDER 135.5||Top||60-45||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135.5 Points - Maryland @ Nebraska, Wed at 7:00 PM ET
These two met in early January and the total was set at 137 and the final score was Maryland 74, Nebraska 72 which eclipsed that total. Despite that result, this total is set lower than their first meeting which is very interesting and we agree with the move. We expect a much lower scoring game this time around. In the first meeting both teams shot fairly well as they combined to make 47% of their shots and 44% of the 3-pointers. Neither team averages those shooting numbers on the season and the large difference came from deep where Maryland shoots 37% on the season and Nebraska just 34%. In that game the Terps averaged 1.14 points per possession while Nebraska came in at 1.11. The Huskers offensive numbers have fallen off drastically over the last few weeks as they have not put up 1.00 points per possession in any of their last 5 games. They lost a key scorer Isaac Copeland 2 games ago and they have scored 51 vs Wisconsin & 64 vs Illinois (the least efficient defense in the Big Ten) their last 2 games. Now facing a Maryland defense that ranks 4th in the Big Ten (conference play) allowing opponents to shoot just 41% and also holding opponents to 32% from deep will be a problem for the Huskers. The Terps also rank 3rd in the Big Ten allowing only 65 PPG. Despite their struggling offense, Nebraska does get it done on the other end of the court ranking 5th in the league in FG% defense with just 2 of their last 7 opponents topping 70 points. The Terps offense has gone into a bit of a lull as well averaging just 65 PPG over their last 5. Neither teams plays at a fast pace with each ranking in the 250 range in adjusted tempo so we don’t expect a large number of possessions in this one. This one turns into a grinder and goes UNDER the total.
|02-05-19||San Diego State v. New Mexico +2||Top||70-83||Win||100||13 h 51 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2
The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno). They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that. They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State. The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s. That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here. Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State. The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season. They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams). It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59. Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31. In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part. They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58! That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1. In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66. San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot. SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite. Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.
|02-05-19||Kansas v. Kansas State -2.5||Top||67-74||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN
Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU. They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile. Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today. Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at. KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum. Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season. The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage. This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games. They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road. It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury. The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight. Take Kansas State.
|02-04-19||Louisville v. Virginia Tech OVER 136||Top||72-64||Push||0||4 h 10 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 136 Points - Louisville @ Virginia Tech, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - On ESPN
After the game Va Tech played on Saturday, we had a feeling this total would be set too low and then bet under by many anyway. That’s exactly what happened. This total should be 140 according to our power ratings yet it opened 137. It has since been bet down to 136 as of this writing early on Monday afternoon. I’m sure you are all aware of the Va Tech – NC State game over the weekend. If not, the final score was Va Tech 47, NC State 24. Yes that was the final score. The Wolfpack made just 9 field goals for the game in 54 shot attempts! From beyond the arc they were 2 of 28. The Hokies weren’t a whole lot better making 16 of their 45 shots. The two teams combined to make only 12 FT’s. It was just one of those games more so than a great defensive performance. The fact is VT hasn’t been a great defense in ACC play. Even with Saturday’s performance they rank 8th in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% defense. They actually have better numbers offensively in ACC play ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their 9 ACC games. If you throw out last Saturday’s result, which was an aberration, VT’s total points scored in their other ACC games was 185, 158, 152, 147, 143, 134, and 101. That last number (101) was vs Georgia Tech who has a very solid defense but the worst offense in the ACC (15th in the conference in offensive efficiency). Now Tech will face a Louisville offense that ranks 2nd in the ACC in offensive efficiency. The Cards are averaging 77 PPG on the road this year and they’ve scored at least 79 points in 7 of their 9 ACC games. This line, as we mentioned, has been over adjusted too much. Last year these two met twice and the totals were set at 152 & 148.5. This has been a higher scoring with 4 of the last 5 meetings going OVER as they combined to score 184, 180, 174, 143, and 141 in their 5 meetings since they began their ACC series. As you can see, any of those outputs go over this number fairly easily. We realize VT’s Robinson is out tonight but we still think this is set too low. Take the OVER.
|02-02-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois State||Top||57-65||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH
These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss. The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog. It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points. Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season. The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place. They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team. Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for. This is the Birds biggest home game of the season. Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney. They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season. Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season. They want this one badly. ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup. They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG). They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season. The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6). They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48). Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively. Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode. Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games. It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2. We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.
|02-01-19||Wisc-Milwaukee +7 v. Green Bay||Top||74-90||Loss||-107||9 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET
These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road. That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings. The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining. UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots. Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line. The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team. That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then. In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team. They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting. Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%. The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG. UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots. The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG. UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass. Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here. The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation. We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.
|01-31-19||Texas-San Antonio v. Western Kentucky -6||Top||88-96||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH
We love the way this one sets up. WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA. They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion. They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now. If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league. They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule. This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss. They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily. It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA. The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY. That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers. Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play. Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half (7) of the league. Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss. One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1. We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least. Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play. They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB. UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem. The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight. We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.
|01-30-19||Memphis v. Tulsa +2.5||Top||79-95||Win||100||5 h 38 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH
Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion. They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play. The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF). The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice. They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston. This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road. Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year. They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season. The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend. Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%. Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep. Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally). They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally. Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road. Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games. Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits. We like Tulsa getting points at home here.
|01-30-19||Marquette v. Butler -2.5||Top||76-58||Loss||-103||3 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET
This is a massively important game for Butler. They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East. They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton. The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion. They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette. Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season. They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th. They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year. Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting. After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight. However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less. They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East. Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings. On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win. The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot. They have very little inside game. 36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play. The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench. Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here. The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette. We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team. That should tell you something. Butler is the side here.
|01-29-19||Nevada v. UNLV +9.5||Top||87-70||Loss||-105||8 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2
We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry. Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so. However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home. They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road. They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point. Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance. UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play. They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play. The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points. They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well. They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples. They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC. While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league). UNLV should be able to take advantage of that. This line is too high in our opinion. Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St). Those results set this one up nicely for the home team. Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5. Now they are laying nearly double digits. Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.
|01-29-19||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +9.5||Top||87-52||Loss||-109||7 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET
The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday. So Kentucky’s the play here right? It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle. First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite. Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here. In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game. Not once. Their biggest lead was 11. Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena. UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend. Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck. Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma. It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU. In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT. This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky. This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits. Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here. We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.
|01-29-19||Mississippi State v. Alabama -1.5||Top||79-83||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET
We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win. The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend. Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12. Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining. The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark. Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor. It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition. Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama. They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next. The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here. They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago. The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy. MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field. We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding). They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc. We really like Alabama in this spot.
|01-27-19||Iona v. Fairfield +1.5||Top||68-80||Win||100||2 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record. Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record. The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops. That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers. This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above. That’s too easy. While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall. Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home. They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season. Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home. Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago. Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home. First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago. Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch. That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win. Both teams took 64 shots and made 31. Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona). The rebounds were pretty much dead even. The difference? Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona. We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield. The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.
|01-26-19||Colorado v. Stanford -1.5||Top||62-75||Win||100||25 h 37 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET
The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win. In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games. They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71. Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game. Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference. No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play. Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up. This is a must win for Stanford. They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion. First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida. Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego. In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference. Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal. One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall. It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving. CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire. Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford). We really like the match for Stanford as well. Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc. The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference). On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league). This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win. Take Stanford.
|01-26-19||Old Dominion v. Texas-San Antonio||Top||73-74||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET
ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record. That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now. They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant. They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points. The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire. This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here. They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year). Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year. UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion. The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road. They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night. Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday. Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one. These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU. The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one. UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average). The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate.
|01-26-19||Iowa State v. Ole Miss -1||Top||87-73||Loss||-108||17 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET
This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation. There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU. The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season. They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76. It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4. We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title. Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points). Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide). That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels. Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents. They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc). That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to. Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team. The Rebs dominated that game 82-67. Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.
|01-25-19||Butler v. Creighton OVER 152.5||Top||61-75||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points - Butler @ Creighton, Friday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One
These two met a few weeks ago and Butler topped the Blue Jays 84-69. That game totaled 153 points which is the exactly where this total is set. This one opened 156 and has dropped most likely due to the results of the first game. Now that it’s down in the 153 range will jump on the OVER. These two teams are very adept at shooting the 3-pointer with Creighton ranking 4th nationally making 42% of their shots from deep while Butler is no slouch hitting 37% which is 46th nationally. Not only do they both shoot it well, they both shoot the 3 a lot with Creighton ranking 7th in point distribution from deep while Butler ranks 54th. As we mentioned above, these two teams got to this total (153) a few weeks ago however they shot very poor from 3-point land in that game combining to make just 18 of 57 attempts (31%). You see where we’re going here. Even though neither team came near the percentage they normally shoot from beyond the arc, they still made it to tonight’s posted total. Neither team defends the arc very well with Creighton ranking 304th in 3-point percentage allowed and the Bulldogs rank 173rd in that category. We have to assume they will shoot much better tonight which should push this OVER the total. When Creighton plays at home, they shoot it so well (51% overall & 46% from deep) that teams have to score points to keep up because it’s very difficult to slow them down. They Jays average 85 PPG at home and in their two Big East home tilts they’ve combined to score 168 vs Villanova and 210 in OT (170 in regulation) vs Marquette. In their 10 home games overall this season they Blue Jays have averaged 161 combined points. Based on the spread, the oddsmakers expect a final score of 78-75 in this game. However, the winning team in Creighton games has reached at least 80 points in 15 of their last 16 games. They only game the winner didn’t reach 80 was when the faced Providence and that final was 79-68. We have to think, based on those numbers, that at least one of these teams get to 80 points and we wouldn’t be shocked if both topped 80. Butler has reached at least 151 combined points in 7 of their 8 Big East games so it’s not all Creighton here. We look for a high scoring game that goes OVER tonight.
|01-24-19||St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5||Top||66-71||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2
This is a revenger from a game played @ St Marys back on January 5th. The Gaels were favored by 6 in that game and now favored on the road just a few weeks later. Based on that first number, BYU should be a 2 point favorite here. The first game was an 88-66 blowout win for St Marys which is a contributing factor to why they are now favored on the road. The loss should have BYU extra motivated here as they played very poorly shooting just 40% from the field (55% for St Marys) and just 6 of 17 from 3-point land. After losing their WCC opener @ San Francisco, the Gaels have ripped off 4 straight wins – 3 of those coming at home. Their only road win in conference play was @ Loyola Marymount who is 2-3 in league play. Overall St Marys is just 1-2 in true road games and 3-5 in road/neutral games. BYU is 9-1 at home and just happy to be back at the Marriott Center as 7 of their last 9 games have been played away from home. The Cougs are 4-2 in WCC play and this is a huge game for them kicking off a 3 game homestand which includes a date with Gonzaga. They are winning their home games by an average score of 83-67 and they really step in up defensively at the Marriott Center holding opposing teams to just 39% from the field. Provo has proven to be a very tough place for teams to come in and win as BYU has won 37 of their last 40 games here. It’s not often we get BYU as a home dog and we’ll jump on it.
|01-24-19||Western Kentucky -1.5 v. Southern Miss||Top||66-63||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CONERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH
These two teams have very similar records with Western Kentucky coming in at 10-9 (3-3 on Conference USA play) while Southern Miss sits at 11-8 (3-4 in CUSA play). However, we feel WKY is the much better team and we’re getting some solid value laying only a point or two in this game. Western’s 3 conference losses have come by 1, 1, and 3 points. Two of those losses came at the hands for Old Dominion (rated #1 in CUSA) & Marshall (#4 in CUSA), two of the top 4 teams in CUSA (Western is the #2 rated team in the conference). USM’s conference losses have come by 18, 15, 8, and 3 points. The Eagles wins have come by 3, 5, and 7 points with two of those games played against Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte, two of the three teams in CUSA. Southern Miss has 11 wins as we mentioned however ZERO of those wins have come against teams ranked inside the top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team ranked inside the top 150 and that game took place on November 11th (win over SMU). Nine of their eleven wins have come against teams ranked 200 or lower including 3 vs non-division 1 opponents who are not ranked at all. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have beaten Wisconsin, St Marys, Arkansas (on the road) and West Virginia (neutral site). They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency in conference games) over the Eagles who are a poor defensive team (13th in CUSA defensive efficiency in conference games). WKY should also have a large advantage on the boards as USM is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. The Eagles are the shortest team in the nation with only one regular contributor taller than 6’5. Their rebounding margin in their 7 conference game is -36 while WKY is +36 on the boards in their 6 league games. Western has dominated this series winning 4 straight all by double digits including last year’s wins by 16 & 17 points. Southern Miss has not had a big home court advantage with a record of just 20-18 SU @ Reed Coliseum since the start of the 2016 season (minus non-division 1 opponents). Because of USM’s +.500 record this year vs terrible competition, we’re getting WKY as the lowest number they’ve laid in this series since 2013. Hilltoppers cruise here.
|01-23-19||St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3.5||Top||65-51||Loss||-105||5 h 18 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UMass -3.5 over St Bonaventure, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
A few weeks ago we grabbed St Bonnies at home vs St Joes as a Top Play and the Bonnies won in a rout. We felt they were undervalued as their record was poor but they were getting some players back and finally at full strength. Since that win they are just 1-2 with their only win coming against Fordham who is 0-5 in league play. The Bonnies also now have some more injurie issues and they are in a terrible situational spot here. They are coming off a double OT loss at home on Saturday to Dayton. It was a game St Bonaventure led by 10 in the 2nd half and felt they should have won making this an emotionally tough spot for them on the road. They were down 2 starters in that game (Kaputo & Poyser) both with concussion issues leaving this team very thin. They have almost no bench right now leaving their starters to play 50, 48, 47, 46, and 35 minutes on Saturday. On top of that the Bonnies are 0-6 this year in true road games and if you add in their neutral site games, they are 1-9. They are also 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 true road games. UMass is 0-5 in league play yet favored by 3.5 here which is a buy sign in our opinion. They are better than their A10 record as they’ve been very competitive with some of the top teams in the league losing by 3 @ St Louis (currently 5-0 in first place in A10), by 5 @ Dayton (4-1 in the A10), and by 5 to a red hot George Mason team (5-1 in the A10). The Minutemen have been competitive against the best teams in the league and they’ve played the toughest conference schedule already having faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic 10. This is now a huge home game for them as they see an opportunity for their first win in conference play. Lay the small number with UMass here.
|01-22-19||Ole Miss v. Alabama -1||Top||53-74||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET
We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams. That’s what we have here. The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels. Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that. That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing. However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama. We are in that group as well. This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide. They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win. Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here. Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona. Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset. The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee. Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss. A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits. Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight. Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday. Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight. He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field. In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field. He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot. He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength. The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100. They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them. The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.
|01-20-19||South Dakota v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 149||Top||68-75||Loss||-109||6 h 56 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 149 Points - South Dakota @ Nebraska Omaha, Sunday at 7:00 PM ET
UNO is the most efficient offense in the Summit League and they play fast. The Mavs have scored at least 80 points in every league game and they’ve topped 90 in three of their five Summit League games. Going back even further Nebraska Omaha has scored at least 80 in 8 straight games. They are facing a South Dakota defense that has allowed at least 70 points in all 5 of their Summit League games. Now they face the #1 offense in the league and a team that shoots nearly 52% from the field at home. We expect UNO to put up at least 80 here. Defensively, Omaha is bad. While they can score points, they also can’t stop anybody. They rank 323rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 330th in eFG% defense. The Mavs allow 80 PPG on the season. In conference play they are allowing 82 PPG and 4 of the 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 239th or lower in efficiency. In other words, everyone is scoring on Omaha. This total is set at 149 which means the oddsmakers are looking for a 77-72 type final score. We just don’t see it being that low scoring. As we stated we expect Omaha to get to at least 80 and we wouldn’t be surprised if South Dakota pushed upper 70’s to low 80’s here. This is the lowest total set in this series in the last 10 meetings. These to have topped 150 in 6 of their last 7 meetings. Another high scoring game here and we take the OVER here.
|01-19-19||Oklahoma State +13.5 v. Iowa State||59-72||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma State +13.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET
This is a really tough spot for ISU. After losing back to back games vs Baylor & Kansas State, the Cyclones went on the road this week in a close to must win spot @ Texas Tech. We were on ISU and they played great as we expected and pulled the upset. Now they come home and play an Oklahoma State team they’ve already beaten this year and ISU goes to Kansas on Monday. To be entirely focused on this Cowboy team when considering the circumstances will be tough. That would be a mistake because OSU has been playing very well and they’ve been competitive in every Big 12 game despite their 2-3 conference record. Their losses have come by 4, 6, and 10 points with the latter coming @ Oklahoma in a game that was a 4-point game with just 4:00 remaining. In their last 3 games OSU beat Texas at home, beat WVU on the road, and then blew a 2nd half lead and lost to Baylor by 4. In the first meeting between these 2 in early January, the Cowboys led at half and never trailed by more than 7 points in the 2nd half. ISU won 69-63 in a game they led by just 3 points with 2:00 remaining. OSU outrebounded the Cyclones but were -8 in made FT’s which turned out to be the difference in the game. ISU shoots a lot of 3’s and the struggled in that game hitting only 30% (on 30 attempts). We don’t see that changing here as the Cowboys are 2nd in the Big 12 at defending the 3 (in league play) allowing only 29%. If ISU doesn’t go off from deep in this game, we feel Oklahoma State can hang around just as they did a few weeks ago. OSU should have some confidence after playing Iowa State to the wire while the Cyclones will be peaking ahead to their date with Kansas in just 2 days. Take the double digits here.
|01-19-19||Fresno State v. Boise State -1||63-53||Loss||-108||18 h 41 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -1 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET
The Broncos are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Because they have a losing record (8-9) they are undervalued right now. The started the season winning just 5 of their first 13 games which was a bit surprising as they returned 4 of their top 7 players from a team that finished last year with a 23-9 record. After their slow start they have now won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming earlier this week vs #10 Nevada. That was a game Boise led and had the ball with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game but lost 72-71. That’s the same Nevada team that won by 10 @ Fresno last Saturday. Head coach Leon Rice has mentioned how much the defense has improved over the last month and the numbers support that as the Broncos have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession. The only offense as of late that was able to top that was Nevada who has the 18th most efficient offense in the country and they barely got over 1.00 PPP (1.03). Fresno relies very heavily on the 3-point shot (38.7 % of their points – 38th nationally) which we are always wary of when teams go on the road. The 3-point shot doesn’t always travel well and Boise allows just 32% from deep at home. Fresno has played a very easy schedule having faced only two teams ranked inside the top 115 since November 23. They are 2-1 on the road, however their wins came against San Jose State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Utah State (a game FSU didn’t have a lead until the final shot of the game – 78-77 win). Boise has a very good home court advantage – 20-4 since the start of last season – and simply need to win here. The undervalued Broncos get the home win.
|01-19-19||Cincinnati v. Wichita State +4.5||Top||66-55||Loss||-111||14 h 13 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH
We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in. This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team. They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road. Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog. After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well. They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT. WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half. They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9). They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record. The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win. That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column. We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati. They are not playing at the top of their game right now. After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games. They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home. Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above. They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG. Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to. This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog. The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog. They do the same here. Wichita pulls the upset.
|01-19-19||Indiana +7.5 v. Purdue||55-70||Loss||-107||14 h 12 m||Show|
ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Indiana +7.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
The Hoosiers are in a somewhat desperate spot here coming off 3 straight losses and we look for an all out effort vs their in state rival. IU is coming off losses @ Michigan and @ Maryland and then a home setback at the hands of Nebraska. They played Michigan (lost by 9) & Maryland (lost by 2 – blew a 14 point lead) very tough on the road and then played perhaps their worst game of the year at home vs the Huskers on Monday. In that 66-51 loss to Nebraska the Hoosiers shot only 36% overall and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts. It was just one of those games where everything went wrong. We love looking at good teams coming off embarrassing losses. Purdue, on the other hand, won at Wisconsin in OT last weekend and then crushed Rutgers here on Tuesday. Off those games, the Boilers could be a bit overvalued now. We feel this is a very good match up for Indiana. The Boilers rely VERY heavily on the 3 point shot with a whopping 41% of their points coming from deep (14th nationally). However IU defends the arc very well allowing opponents to make only 29% of their shots from beyond the arc. In their last 3 games vs solid 3-point shooting teams (Michigan, Maryland, and Nebraska) the Hoosiers held them to a combined 20 of 65 from deep (30%). If Purdue struggles from beyond the arc, they are in trouble. That’s because they don’t score consistently inside the arc (322nd in 2 point scoring percentage) and they don’t get to the line often (311th in FT scoring percentage). Indiana is a decent 3-point shooting game (35%) and Purdue stinks at defending the arc (306th nationally). The Hoosiers are also very good at scoring inside making 58% of their shots from 2-point land (7th nationally). We’re getting value with the number as well here. IU was just a 9 point dog @ Michigan and a 5-point dog @ Maryland. Those numbers tell us this number should be closer to +5, not +7.5. We think IU has a shot to pull the upset here and we’ll take the generous points.
|01-18-19||Maryland v. Ohio State -2||Top||75-61||Loss||-110||20 h 4 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET
This is an absolute must win for OSU. They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0. Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game. OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State. The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win. The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU. Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year. They play very hard and play excellent defense. Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road. They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs). Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game. Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them. This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins. They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3. Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game. Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win. Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt. Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here. This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do. Take the Buckeyes.
|01-17-19||IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 164.5||Top||76-70||Loss||-109||8 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 164.5 Points - IUPUI @ UW Green Bay, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET
UWGB is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation (8th nationally in tempo) and IUPUI loves to play fast as well (87th in tempo). The Phoenix average 80 possessions per game (5th nationally) and IUPUI averages 74 possessions per game. While that comes out to 154 possessions, those numbers include games vs slower paced teams so we expect more than 154 possessions in this game. If those numbers turn out to be accurate, we’ll need these teams to average just a bit more than 1.00 point per possession which we expect them to easily accomplish. Both have poor defenses with UWGB ranking 295th in adjusted defensive efficiency and IUPUI comes in at 212th in that category. They also both tend to send their opponents to the line a lot which rolls up free points with the clock stopped. In UWGB games, at least one team has reached 90 or more points in 5 straight games. The Phoenix defense has allowed 91 PPG in their 5 Horizon League contests. Even UW Milwaukee, who ranks 253rd nationally in scoring put up 82 points on Green Bay. On a points per possession basis, the GB defense has allowed 1.23, 1.28, 1.14, 1.18, and 1.14 PPP in their Horizon League games. On offense they’ve averaged 88 PPG in those 5 conference games and put up well over 1.00 PPP in each. As we stated above IUPUI’s defense isn’t much better as they’ve allowed 77 PPG in their 5 league games. Offensively they’ve been a bit more up and down, however when the Panthers play fast paced teams with below average defenses they have put points on the board. In this one, IUPUI will absolutely have to score points to keep and and they will against a bad GB defense. These two teams have combined to play 32 games and 22 of those have gone OVER the total. With this spread sitting at GB -3 and a total of 164.5 or 165, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 84-81 or somewhere in that vicinity. We expect at least one of these teams to push 90 or break that barrier with the other at least in the 80’s OVER is the wager here.
|01-16-19||Iowa State +5.5 v. Texas Tech||Top||68-64||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET
Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice. They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire. Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points. Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here. Getting points will be valuable. ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points. Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining. This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference. We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion. They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night. The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting. Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight. ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more. We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one. That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency). They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games. We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright. Take the points.
|01-16-19||Auburn v. Texas A&M +7||Top||85-66||Loss||-115||7 h 56 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers. We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week. Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck. Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday. They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight. On top of that, this team struggles on the road. They have played just 2 true road games this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points. They were FAVORED in both. They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots. Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games. They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts. A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend. In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1. They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home. Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost. The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home. Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion. We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.
|01-16-19||Iowa v. Penn State -1.5||Top||89-82||Loss||-105||7 h 55 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes. Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record. The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win. We expect they’ll play very well in this game. The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season. They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland. Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league. Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season. The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home. We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook. That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team. The Hawks did come from 7 points down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits. The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season. Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU. The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark. Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday. The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games. PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.
|01-15-19||Marquette v. Georgetown +2||Top||74-71||Loss||-110||4 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One
Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion. Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end. They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton. Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle. First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime. Not once. On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds. Yes you read that correctly. Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation. We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close). Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year. They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games. They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots! The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that. Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points. They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again. The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games. Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles. G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year. Hoyas in this one outright.
|01-14-19||Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 130.5||Top||60-64||Loss||-116||6 h 1 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 130.5 Points - Wisconsin @ Maryland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One
This total opened 137 and we were considering a small play on the OVER at that point. Now that it has dropped all the way to 131 as of this writing, we’ll definitely jump on this one and play the OVER. These are two solid shooting teams who are very efficient offensively. The Badgers shoot 49% on the season while Maryland has hit 48% of their shots. Both rank in the top 27 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Many think of Wisconsin as a low scoring team but that’s really not the case. They are averaging 75 PPG on the season while the Terps average 77 PPG. Sure they’ve both had a few stinkers offensively but for the most part these two teams have put points on the board. Maryland has put up at least 74 points in 7 straight games. They’ve been held under 70 points in just 3 of their 17 games this season and they are the only team to post 70+ this year vs Virginia who ranks 1st in the nation in scoring defense. The Badgers have played 16 games and been held under 70 points just 5 times. Both defenses have had some very good performances, however when they’ve faced good offenses they have given up points. Wisconsin has played 6 top 50 offenses (adjusted efficiency) and they are allowing 70 PPG on those contests. Maryland has also faced 6 top 50 offenses and they are giving up 71 PPG in those games. Where this line and total sit, the expected outcome is right around 67-64 in favor of Maryland. We think at least one of these two teams and possibly both get to 70 which will be enough to push this game OVER the total.
|01-12-19||Arizona State v. Stanford +4||Top||71-85||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS). Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion. They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half. Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game. It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record). The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12. We expect an all out effort on Saturday. ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday. The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game. Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points. In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal). Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today. The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. Take the points with Stanford.
|01-12-19||Georgia v. Auburn -13.5||Top||78-93||Win||100||3 h 53 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH
We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here. Not only a loss but an embarrassing one. The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite. Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%. Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers. Really tough to overcome those two situations. Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back. They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road. The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee. They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd. For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee. The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13. Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia. The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally). The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage). Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint. The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here. Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago. We feel this one could turn into a blowout.
|01-10-19||Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -1.5||Top||64-67||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET
Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now. After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games. They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation. That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team. Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday. It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU. They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara. Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team. They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175. They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally). That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot. Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.
|01-10-19||SMU v. Connecticut -135||Top||64-76||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UConn -135 on Money Line over SMU, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
PLAY ON THE MONEY LINE - UConn is on a 3 game losing streak and because of that we feel we are getting some value with the home team. Two of those losses came at the hand of top 35 teams Villanova & UCF. The other loss was @ South Florida vs a team that is red hot right now winning 8 of their last 9. UConn is 0-2 in the AAC and with their next 2 games coming @ Cincy & @ Tulsa so this becomes a must win game. SMU steps into Gampel Pavilion tonight with a 2-0 record in the AAC, however they have faced the two lowest rated teams in the league (Tulane & ECU). That seems to be a theme with the Mustangs as they have a solid record at 10-4, however they have played the 334th ranked strength of schedule. They have faced just 3 teams in the top 100 this year and they have lost 2 of those games. UConn has played the much tougher slate already facing the likes of Villanova, Iowa, Syracuse, Florida State, UCF, and Arizona. The Huskies will win this one with pressure and defense. They rank 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (SMU ranks 181st) and they create turnovers at a 23% rate (20th nationally). Since December 1st SMU has played only 2 teams in the top 100 at creating turnovers. ECU ranks 94th in that defensive category and TCU 93rd. Versus those two opponents SMU turned the ball over 21% & 23% of their possessions which is very high. Those two teams don’t compare to the UConn defense that ranks 20th in defensive turnover percentage so we expect the Mustangs to have problems handling the Huskies pressure tonight. We have this year’s UConn team rated 75 spots higher than last year’s team. We rated this year’s SMU team just a touch lower than last year’s squad. Even with that, last year’s UConn team took care of SMU here winning 63-52 as a 6-point dog. With SMU off a road win @ a bad ECU team and with big home games coming next week vs Tulsa & Houston, we feel they might be a big fat and happy at 2-0. UConn will play as if this is the biggest game of their season and pull off the win
|01-09-19||Florida -1.5 v. Arkansas||Top||57-51||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK
The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition. They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation. Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally. Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss. You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday. It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer. It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins. Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule. Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire. Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech. This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season. Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well. Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas). So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on. Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road.
|01-09-19||St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure +1||Top||47-73||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF THE WEEK
St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule. They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home. At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team. Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points. This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason. They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire. That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home. The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season. Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games. Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA. They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record. St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month. They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home. The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team. They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month. St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting. The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer. They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here. The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home. Now this line sits near a pick-em. While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year. We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday. Take St Bonaventure at home.
|01-08-19||Iowa State v. Baylor +2.5||Top||70-73||Win||100||4 h 48 m||Show|
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday. For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation. ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons. On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60. It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury. Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up. They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12). In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots. They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81. The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man. It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not. Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday. Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining. We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday. We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday. The value is with Baylor here. They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State. Now they are getting points. The Bears pull the upset here.
|01-06-19||Memphis v. Houston -9.5||Top||77-90||Win||100||19 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET
We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74. On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road. Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st. They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis. They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120. If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100. Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State. Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points. They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November. They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral). Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season. Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses. Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense. The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points. We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home. The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58. Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers. The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%). The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games. We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.
|01-05-19||San Diego State v. Boise State -2.5||Top||64-88||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network
San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late. On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home. The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month. They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303). Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1. Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team. The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21. On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win. Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough. The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home. After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday. They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win. The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games. At home they allow only 39% for the season. This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team. Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now. We feel SDSU is just the opposite. Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena. These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.
|01-03-19||St. Mary's v. San Francisco -2||Top||72-76||Win||100||5 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2
Talk about a team flying under the radar. San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home. Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California. Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday. Tight losses vs very good teams. UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year. Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia. The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense). They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG. The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season. The Gaels are down this year. They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team. The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season). They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games. St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team. San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely. The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center. They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well. This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.