|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-03-16||Hamilton -4.5 v. Winnipeg||Top||11-37||Loss||-106||12 h 40 m||Show|
We love the spot to play on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats minus the 4-points @ the Winnipeg Blue Bombers tonight. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to remain unbeaten on the road this season and we feel they'll do so over a mediocre Winnipeg team that has been decimated by injuries. Hamilton comes into this game off a bye and they are playing with same season revenge as they lost to Winnipeg on July 7th 24-28, despite outgaining the Blue Bombers by 70-yards. Winnipeg starting QB at the time Drew Willy had a great game by going 32 of 42 for 279 yards and a TD. The problem for the Blue Bombers is that Willy will not be the pivot in this game as he's out with an injury which means Matt Nichols gets the start. Nichols had a decent start against Edmonton in his last game but now he faces a Ticats defense that is playing lights out right now with 8 forced fumbles (second in CFL) and a league-high 20 sacks. Hamilton’s front seven, meanwhile, has been the best in the league through the first part of the season with all four of the starters on the defensive line having registered at least two sacks. Another negative for the Blue Bombers offense is that they are playing without their top two receivers in Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler making it that much more difficult for their offense. Hamilton's offense is in good hands with QB Jeremiah Masoli who is coming off a record breaking performance against Edmonton where he threw for 391 yards on 31 of 38 passing with 3 TD's and 0 INT's. Masoli will look to make amends against the Blue Bombers after a 29 of 39 for 367 yards but 2 crucial INT's in the first meeting. Hamilton is 23-9 ATS their last 32 road games and they've won 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Blue Bombers. Lay the points with Hamilton tonight.
|07-29-16||BC v. Calgary -4||Top||41-44||Loss||-110||9 h 42 m||Show|
Our CFL best bet of the night is taking the Calgary Stampeders minus the points over the visiting British Columbia Lions. This is a quick rematch for these two division foes after BC beat the Stampeders earlier this season 20-18 as a +2.5-point underdog. Consider that number for a moment before we go any further. Calgary was laying -2.5-points on the ROAD in the first meeting and are now laying just -4.5-points at HOME in a REVENGE or MUST WIN situation if they want to win the division. Statistically the Stampeders have edges offensively as they rank 3rd overall in the league in points scored per game at 28.3PPG, they are 1st in sacks allowed, 2nd in rushing yards per attempt and 1st in turnovers which is especially key against this BC defense. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 72% of his attempts and has 8 TD's to just 2 INT's on the season. As far as BC's offense goes they are below average in the league in most categories ranking 6th in PPG at 25.5PPG, 7th in yards per game and 8th in passing yards per game. Defensively Calgary is 2nd in the league overall in points allowed per game at 21.5PPG which is slightly behind the #1 ranked D of BC who allows just 18.3PPG. Sure the Lions defense allows the fewest yards per game at 339.2YPG but Calgary allows the 3rd fewest yards per game in the league at 403YPG. Calgary has dominated this series prior to the early season loss as they had won 5 straight in this rivalry by an average of 17PPG. We predict a 2 TD win by Calgary tonight.
|07-28-16||Winnipeg v. Edmonton UNDER 56||Top||30-23||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
UNDER 55.5 Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Eskimos - 8PM CT Thursday - We put our CFL expertise on the line tonight with an O/U wager on the Winnipeg versus Edmonton game which we feel stays UNDER the number by a wide margin. These two teams just meet on August 14th with Edmonton winning 20-16 in a game that stayed under a total of 55.5 points. That was the 4th 'UNDER' in the last five meetings between these two teams and the five games averaged just 39.4PPG. The Eskimos have the highest scoring offense in the CFL at 31.8PPG but two overtime games have slightly inflated those numbers. The Blue Bombers offense is second to last in the CFL by averaging just 19.6PPG and they have some quarterback issues which isn't going to help them produce points here. Edmonton has allowed the second most points per game this season in the league BUT they've played Ottawa, Saskatchewan and Hamilton who have 3 of the five best offenses in the league and two of those games went into overtime. The same can be said about Winnipeg who is allowing 27PPG (3rd worst) but they've played Edmonton (1st in PPG 'O'), Calgary twice (3rd 28.3PPG) and Hamilton (5th @ 27.4PPG) so the Blue Bombers defense isn't as bad as you might think. Edmonton may get caught looking past a last place Winnipeg team they recently beat as they have a bigger game on deck against Ottawa who leads the East Division. The value and bet here is UNDER the total of 55.5 points.
|07-25-16||Montreal v. Toronto -4||Top||17-30||Win||100||4 h 18 m||Show|
PLAY ON: TORONTO -4 over Montreal - 7:30PM ET - The Argos have a new stadium (BMO Field) and are eager to get a home win (0-2) this season for their home faithful. Toronto has a great opportunity on Monday night with a struggling Montreal Alouettes coming to town. Montreal has some internal issues going on within the club right now that stem from Nik Lewis, quarterback issues and several key injuries. The Alouettes are last in the CFL in scoring averaging just 14PPG and their starting QB's are throwing for less than 275 yards per game and 2 total passing TD's. Defensively they are allowing over 24PPG and were beaten twice this season by more than 14 points. Toronto has had problems closing out games as they are a negative -30 points to opponents in the 4th quarters of games this season. But expect them to find a way to get this one at home where they are desperate for a win. The Argos average 24PPG on the season with QB Ricky Ray completing over 70% of his attempts with 6 TD's to just 1 INT. Earlier this season the Argos hosted Hamilton and were 5-point favorites. Last week Montreal hosted that same Hamilton team and was a 2-point home dog. Now Toronto is laying the same number they were against Hamilton who is a far superior team. Lay the points with the Toronto Argonauts on Monday night.
|07-15-16||Hamilton v. Montreal||31-7||Win||100||25 h 29 m||Show|
On Friday night we will play on the Hamilton Tiger Cats even or pick'em over the Montreal Alouettes. Road teams continue to win in the CFL (over 73%) and even though we went against that abnormal trend last night and lost we will side with it here. The deciding factors for this wager are health, turnovers and overall team strength with clearly favor the Ti-Cats in this match up. Montreal is beat up at this time as they are without their starting QB Kevin Glenn and will start 2nd year player Rakeem Cato, missing two of their top three wideouts (Stafford and Green) along with running back Tyrell Sutton. Montreal comes into this game 1-1 SU with a win over a bad Winnipeg team and 15-point loss to Ottawa which was much more worse than the final score as they got outgained by over 200 yards in that game. Hamilton is 1-2 SU with a win over Toronto and a pair of losses to BC and Winnipeg. The Ti-Cats actually outgained the Blue Bombers last week but they turned the ball over 7 times. Montreal's defensive statistics are misleading and they are not as good as the numbers would indicate while Hamilton is better statistically than they have shown if it weren't for an abnormal amount of turnovers. Hamilton has covered the spread in 12 of their last fourteen on the road while Montreal is just 2-7 ATS their last nine games overall. Take Hamilton as a pick'em Friday.
|07-08-16||Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton||Top||36-39||Win||100||30 h 38 m||Show|
Grab the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders over the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday evening. This is a BIG game for both teams as the current Saskatchewan (SSK from here on out...) head coach Chris Jones, and his entire staff, lead the Eskimos to a Grey Cup Championship last season but bolted to SSK this year. Just weeks after winning the Grey Cup last year, Jones asked for more power in Edmonton and they wouldn't give it to him so he left for SSK. This staff knows the Edmonton roster better than anyone and Jones is a mastermind coach that will know exactly how to exploit the Eskimos weaknesses. Ironically, Edmonton had one of, if not the best defenses in the CFL last year but in their opener they gave up 45 points to Ottawa and were outgained by 148 yards. More support in our theory is the turnaround of the Roughriders defense (under Jones staff) that allowed just 252 total yards in their opener after allowing more points than any other team in the league last season. Offensively, the Roughriders were very good last year ranking 1st overall in passing yards, 2nd in TD passes, 2nd in average time of possession per game and 1st in rushing yards. SSK lost their opener against Toronto by 13-points but the final score is not a good indication of the actual game as the Roughriders had 13 more first downs, +13 minute TOP and were +137 total yards. The difference in that game was two critical fumbles, one of which was returned for a TD. Last season Edmonton was 9 and 10-point favorites over Saskatchewan and won both games by 11 and 25 points but the coaching change is a dramatic one and the line has clearly not been adjusted. Value lies with the Roughriders and the points!!!
|07-08-16||Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 52||26-26||Push||0||27 h 38 m||Show|
We are going to play OVER the total in the Calgary Stampeders versus the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday evening. Offenses go as their QB's go in the CFL and this game will have two of the best at that position squaring off. Trevor Harris of Ottawa leads the CFL in total passing yards (687 yards) and TD's thrown (6 TD's) to lead the Redblacks to 73 total points or 36.5PPG. Harris has been highly efficient throwing the football by completing 37 of 45 attempts. The important thing to know here is this: The Redblacks have put up their impressive offensive statistics against two of the top three defenses (Edmonton & Montreal) from last season. His counterpart today will be Bo Levi Mitchell of the Stampeders who got off to a slow start in the opener against BC (who has the best defense in the CFL) but rebounded with a great game last week against Winnipeg. Mitchell threw for 309 yards and 2 TD's in leading the Stampeders to 36 points in three quarters versus the Blue Bombers. Let's not forget this Calgary offense was 2nd in total points last season and 3rd in passing yards and time of possession so we know they're capable of putting up big numbers. Plus the fact that this Ottawa defense has already allowed 50-points this season in two games which is the third most in the CFL. We expect both teams to put up near 30-points each in a high scoring affair. BET OVER!
|07-07-16||Toronto v. BC -7||Top||25-14||Loss||-110||10 h 60 m||Show|
Play on: BC Lions (-7) over Toronto Argonauts - 6PM CT Thursday - One of the big stories in the CFL thus far is the emergence of the BC Lions and their 2-0 start after a 7-11 record last season. BC has been outstanding on the defensive side of the football by allowing just 10.5PPG to start the season and less than 291 total yards per game of offense to opponents. To give you a better understanding of how good those numbers are, the next best points allowed per game in the CFL is 21PPG. Offensively the Lions are 1st in the league in time of possession (of the teams that have played 2 games - Saskatchewan has played one) and 2nd overall in rushing yards per game. BC will go up against a Toronto defense that is 3rd worst at stopping the run and is allowing 29.5PPG. We have one common foe between these two teams this season and that's Hamilton who Toronto lost to 20-42 and was outgained by 83 yards, while the Lions beat Hamilton 28-3, outgaining them by 58 yards. BC has won 9 of the last eleven meetings between these two clubs on this field and considering how well they are playing right now we expect a double-digit victory here. Lay the points with the BC Lions.
|07-01-16||Winnipeg v. Calgary -10.5||Top||22-36||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: CALGARY STAMPEDERS (-10.5) over Winnipeg Blue Bombers - 10PM ET Friday night - Our CFL pick on Friday is with the Calgary Stampeders minus the double-digits over Winnipeg Blue Bombers. We have the opportunity here to play a very good team, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst with the better team coming off an upset loss in Week 1. Calgary lost their opener to B.C. 18-20 and didn't really do anything well on either sides of the football. We expect a MUCH better showing at home this week from the team we feel is the 2nd best in the league. Calgary was 14-4 last year in the regular season and put up the second most points in the league at 27PPG . Defensively they allowed just 346 total points in the regular season (2nd in CFL) or 19PPG. You can see their average overall differential during the regular season was 8PPG but that number improved to +14PPG at home where they were 9-1 SU on the season. Winnipeg is also off a loss in Week 1 but we don't expect a bounce back here by one of the worst teams in the league. The Blue Bombers were 5-13 SU last year and have a current 4 game losing streak dating back to last season and are just 1-7 SU their last eight games. Winnipeg lost in the opener to Montreal who was just beaten badly last night by an Ottawa team that we rate slightly lower than Calgary. The Stampeders have beaten this Blue Bomber team 13 of the last fourteen meetings and with a tough game on deck against Ottawa they can't afford an 0-2 start to the season. Expect a 14+ point win by Calgary here.
|06-30-16||Ottawa v. Montreal||Top||28-13||Win||100||4 h 18 m||Show|
ASA CFL PICK THURSDAY, JUNE 30TH - PLAY ON: OTTAWA REDBLACKS (-1) over @ Montreal Alouettes, 6PM CT - We are going to follow the smart money today and side with the Ottawa Redblacks as our 'play on' team Thursday in the CFL. There are a couple negatives that go against Ottawa but overall there aren't enough to negate a bet on them here. Scheduling is a concern as they have the shorter turnaround than Montreal for this game and they are coming off a big win over Edmonton who they lost to in the Championship game a year ago. BUT they are a far superior team than the Alouettes and they still warrant a wager tonight. Ottawa put up a whopping 590 yards of offense last week and 45-points against an Edmonton team that allowed the least amount of points last year (18.1PPG) and were one of the best in the CFL overall defensively. The Redblacks were 4th in total points scored a year ago and 1st overall in total passing yards. Montreal was average or below in most defensive categories but benefitted from turnovers which improved their overall numbers. If they don't force turnovers here, they don't have an offense (last in passing yards in 2015 and 2nd to last in points scored) capable of trading points with Ottawa. Montreal (6-12 SU last year) beat Winnipeg (5-13 SU LY) last week 22-14 and barely outgained them which isn't saying much. Ottawa was 12-6 SU last year and lost in the Championship game and are favored by just a point in this matchup. In comparison, Calgary (14-4 SU LY) who is similar to Ottawa is a 10-point favorite at home over Winnipeg (same caliber team as Montreal) this week. We are getting a ton of value with a Redblacks team that finished last season 4-1 SU and ATS on the road. Not to mention this Montreal team was just 3-6 SU at home last year. Take the visitor and much better team in this game. OTTAWA!
|06-24-16||Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 49.5||22-14||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
We have one CFL wager for you tonight and that's on the 'UNDER' in the Montreal Alouettes vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers. First off let's start with this: The league average for points scored and allowed per game last season was 24.6PPG and 24.5PPG for a combined average of 49.1PPG. Tonight we have two of the CFL's worst offensive teams from a season ago as Montreal averaged 21.5PPG which was 2nd to last in the league while Winnipeg was dead last at 19.6PPG. These two clubs were the bottom two teams in passing yards per game and passing TD's per game. While the Blue Bombers were slightly below average in rushing yards per game the Alouettes were the 2nd best rushing team in the league and more running plays means less plays, less clock stoppage and less points. Last year when these two teams met (twice) they totaled 49 and 48 points with one game going over the number and one under. The under has some historical support as combined the Alouettes and Blue Bombers have stayed below the total in 23 of their last 34 games overall. Not to mention the Alouettes are on a 16-6 under streak in their last 22 road games while the Bombers are on a 7-1 under run at home their last eight. There is some potential rain in the forecast for this game tonight and we expect to see two struggling offenses and two 'OK' defenses slug it out in a low scoring game. The bet here is UNDER!
|06-23-16||Hamilton +5 v. Toronto||42-20||Win||100||3 h 53 m||Show|
We will side with Hamilton plus the points over the Toronto Argonauts. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Argos as the Tiger Cats beat them last year in the playoffs but we're confident they won that game for a reason and will win this one too. Statistically speaking the Tiger Cats were much better offensively and defensively, tied for the least amount of yards per play defense at 6.15 yards while ranking 2nd overall in yards per play offense at 7.03. Hamilton had the highest scoring 'O' in the CFL last season at 29PPG. Toronto on the other hand was below average in yards allowed per play and points allowed defensively and yards per play offensively and points scored per game. Last year when these two teams squared off in the post season the Cats won 25-22 as a 2-point favorite and most key stats were near identical. Not too mention the Tiger Cats beat the Argo's two other times during the regular season 34-18 (favored by -3.5 points) and 42-12 (-7.5 points). Although QB Zach Collaros is out for the Ti-Cats, Jeremiah Masoli will be under center this evening and he was the starter for Hamilton in the playoffs last season. Masoli also looked sharp in their preseason blowout last week over Ottawa (9 of 15 for 136 yards and a TD). The value here is clearly on Hamilton plus the points. Good luck!