|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams UNDER 56.5||Top||13-3||Win||100||29 h 48 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 56.5 Points - New England vs LA Rams, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET
Rams defense has been great in the post-season. They have allowed just 98 yards rushing in two games against 2 of the better running teams in the NFL (Cowboys & Saints). They held both teams under 2.3 YPC. During regular season Rams allowed 6 YPP but in playoffs just 5 YPP. They held Dallas to 22 points and a very potent New Orleans offense to just 23 points last week on the road. New England has shut down 2 of the better offenses down in the 1st half holding Chargers to 7 points and KC scoreless. We expect Belichick will have a game plan to slow down the Rams offense early as well. In those match ups the Pats got out to big leads and forced the opposing offenses to play hurry up and catch up which resulted in some higher scoring 2nd halves. We don’t see that happening here. We see a close game (6 of New England’s last 8 Super Bowls have been decided by 4 points or less) with the defenses controlling the tempo. Another key here is we expect both teams to rely heavily on the run. The Pats have averaged 41 carries per game in their 2 playoff wins while LA has averaged 37 carries per game in their 2 playoff games. Both teams have solid kickers that can make them from 50+ in the dome so we think both will settle for FG’s rather than being overly aggressive and going for it on 4th down. These two QB’s have only thrown 3 TD passes combined in their 4 post-season games (Brady 2 & Goff 1). With think this game will start slow offensively with a low scoring first half. If the game stays close as we expect, we just don’t see either team going wild on offense in the 2nd half. We look for both defenses to play well and control the tempo and we’ll lean UNDER in the Super Bowl
|01-20-19||Rams v. Saints -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-110||48 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET
The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS). We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday. Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat. LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff. That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground. In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday. That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that. If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long. Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career. The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games. Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road). The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games). They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game. We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch. If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games. Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards). We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit. The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more. Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday. Lay it with New Orleans in the dome.
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots -4||Top||28-41||Win||100||24 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it. First of all, the situation is terrible for LA. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast. Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England. HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well. Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close. He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick. Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage. Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier. They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier. Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked. This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one. Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center. The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so. Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically. He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year. Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games. He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year. Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG. Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields. In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less. The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24. They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG. Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season. They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less. The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC. The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent. LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week. In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week. The Patriots get the home win and cover.
|01-12-19||Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams||Top||22-30||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET
We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams. Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th. Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run. That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas. The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle. Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC. With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game. LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning. Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans. They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close. That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game. If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team. In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32. They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG. Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG. This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers. You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers. Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points. Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%). Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one). The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch. On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands. LA’s following is not great for home games. Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win.
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||Top||16-44||Win||100||38 h 52 m||Show|
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 43||Top||23-17||Win||100||1 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 43 Points- LA Chargers @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
These two met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was Baltimore 22-10 landing well under this number. The Raven defense held the Chargers to just 198 total yards on 3.7 YPP which was their lowest output of the season in any game. LA put up big numbers at times vs lower tier defenses but weren’t great offensively when facing top notch defensive units. In fact, in the 2nd half of the season the Chargers faced just 2 top 10 defenses (defensive efficiency) and they averaged just 16 PPG and 237 YPG. In their final 2 games of the season they scored just 3 offensive TD’s total vs Denver & this Baltimore team. Philip Rivers started the season on fire but down the stretch he fell off drastically with just 4 TD passes in his last 4 games. He also had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings on the season in those final 4 games. On the other side, we know Baltimore will run the ball which eats clock. They have averaged 230 YPG and 45 rushes per game on the ground since Lamar Jackson took over at QB. However their lowest numbers on the ground during that stretch were vs this Charger defense where they put up 159 yards on the ground. With Jackson at QB, the Ravens have averaged 25 PPG, however in 5 of his 7 starts he’s faced defenses ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, and 26th in defensive efficiency. The only top 10 defense he’s faced his this Charger unit (ranked 8th) and the Baltimore offense scored only 16 points in that game as the Ravens defense contributed a long fumble return for a TD late in that game. Windy conditions are on tap in Baltimore today (15 MPH) which will affect both passing games. We have 2 top 10 defenses here (Baltimore 3rd in efficiency & LA 8th) and we expect a similar game to what we saw 2 weeks ago. A grinder that goes UNDER this number.
|01-05-19||Colts v. Texans OVER 48||Top||21-7||Loss||-110||3 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Over 48 Points - Indianapolis @ Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET
This one sets up to be a shootout as both team’s strengths offensively are each other’s weakness defensively. We expect both teams to come out throwing which will lead to a higher scoring game. In the two meetings this year Luck had 103 pass attempts for 863 yards and 6 TDs. Watson had 80 attempts for 642 yards and 3 TD’s. Looking at the season averages, opponents completed 65% of their passing attempts versus Houston (18th worst). The Colts were worse yet, allowing foes to complete 70% of their attempts (31st). That ties into the Texans ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game while the Colts are 16th. That’s bad news for both team’s defensive unit’s as the Texan’s big play passing game averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt (7th), while the Colts average 278 passing yards per game (6th). In the two games this season these two teams averaged 850 combined yards and totaled 45 and 71 total points. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined 45 points, BUT they didn’t score on five separate trips to the red zone (Indy 3, Hou 2). Based on the average yardage in those two games and both teams’ yards per point offense, both average 14.3YPPT (8th and 10th best) this game should see 59 total points being scored. BET OVER!
|01-01-19||Washington v. Ohio State OVER 56.5||Top||23-28||Loss||-110||28 h 40 m||Show|
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER – Ohio State vs Washington, Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET - ROSE BOWL - Prior to their low-scoring win over the Utes in the PAC-12 Championship Game, the Huskies had scored at least 27 points in 8 of their 9 previous games. This included bad weather games too. As for this one, conditions should be ideal in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl Tuesday afternoon (2 pm local time). Santa Ana winds in Southern Cal are impacting New Year's Eve but will have subsided through the morning hours on New Years Day. Winds are expected to be near 10 miles per hour at kickoff with clear skies and temperatures near 60 degrees. With ideal weather, Washington should have no trouble putting up at least 27 points again here. Look for QB Jake Browning and the Huskies to take advantage of a Buckeyes defense that allowed an average of 266 passing yards per game their last 9 games of the season. In fact, looking at Ohio's State's last 6 games they only had one truly impressive defensive performance (versus Michigan State). In the Buckeyes other 5 games dating back to mid-October they allowed an average of 38.8 points per game. That includes 6 overtime points allowed in the Maryland game but even adjusting for that the Buckeyes allowed an average of 37.6 points in those 5 games. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points here as the Ohio State defense struggled as the season went on but, of course, they have an extremely potent offense! Another way to look at it is this way: With the total set at 57.5 and Ohio State -6.5 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 32-25 range. We like Buckeyes to score more than 32 and the Huskies to score more than 25. Washington State's last 3 games played with 2 or more weeks of rest between games have gone 3-0 to the OVER. In terms of additional technical support, the Huskies are also 3-0 to the over when they are a neutral field dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Ohio State is 6-2 to the over this season when off a win over a Big Ten foe. The Buckeyes big win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship wrapped up a season-ending 3-game run that saw Ohio State score an average of 53 points per game (50.7 ppg adjusting out the 7 points in the OT win versus the Terrapins). Considering all of the above, this should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here.
|12-30-18||Browns +7.5 v. Ravens||Top||24-26||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points.
|12-30-18||Raiders v. Chiefs -14||Top||3-35||Win||100||6 h 31 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West. A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard. We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2. These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes. KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game. While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense. It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland. Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season. The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals. The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing. They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season. Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league. They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games. That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs. This one will get ugly.
|12-30-18||Dolphins v. Bills -5||Top||17-42||Win||100||2 h 7 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here. We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game. Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points.
|12-29-18||Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 76.5||Top||34-45||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
#253/254 ASA 10* CFB PLAY ON OVER – Alabama vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - ORANGE BOWL - Oklahoma ranks 102nd in total defense so this will be the 3rd worst defense Bama has faced this season. The two teams they played that are ranked lower in total defense were Ole Miss (116th) and Louisville (126th) and the Tide put up 62 & 51 points in those 2 games. As we go a bit further, Bama played a total of 4 teams this year ranked 75th or worse in total defense and they scored 65, 62, 57, and 51 points in those 4 games. We expect Alabama to put up similar numbers on Saturday vs a terrible Sooner defense that gave up big points to nearly everyone on their schedule. They allowed at least 33 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and allowed 40+ in 5 of those games. That includes a bad Kansas offense who scored 40 on this defense. The Okie defense will now face the BEST offense they’ve taken on this season as Bama ranks 2nd nationally in YPP putting up 7.6. Who ranks first in YPP offense? Oklahoma at 8.6 YPP. So while we expect Bama to run up huge numbers here, the Sooners will get theirs as well. The Tide have impressive defensive numbers but they haven’t faced an offense like this OU unit. The best offense Bama has faced in Georgia and they average a full 100 less per game than Oklahoma. Georgia scored 28 points and put up 450 yards on Bama. We think Oklahoma tops both of those numbers which should put this one over rather easily despite the high number. Look at it this way, with the total set at 77 and Bama -14 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 45-31 range. We like Bama to score more than 45 and Oklahoma to score more than 31. These two have combined to play 26 games this year and they are 19-6-1 to the OVER. This should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here.
|12-28-18||Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5||Top||26-28||Loss||-110||34 h 36 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play.
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||25 h 36 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season. After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT. After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games. Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs. They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure. Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie. As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation. Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright! On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night). Want more? With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games. Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion. They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed. That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season. While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow. The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3). KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team. We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points.
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy +1||Top||32-42||Win||100||27 h 51 m||Show|
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||12-9||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET
The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic. They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20. At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23. Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks. Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road. Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot. Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard. A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes. Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents. This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November. In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion. New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division. However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks. Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP. Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP. Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage. Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season. After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games. Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP). The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here. We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points.
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +4||Top||23-26||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET
We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright!
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -3||Top||0-23||Win||100||2 h 3 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We love this spot for the Colts. Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week. That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week. Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense. The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot. They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker. Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week. Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here. In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons. The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins. Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion. Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run. They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed. If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble. If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening. We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week. Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well. So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season. The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown. We’ll lay the field goal
|12-16-18||Lions v. Bills -2.5||Top||13-14||Loss||-119||2 h 2 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL? Baltimore? Maybe Chicago? Nope. The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP. That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least. The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7. They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG. Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play. That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense. The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards. Three turnovers were the key in that game. The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards! They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards. This team is undervalued right now because of that. QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games! The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball. While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games. The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game. Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them. Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season). It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility. The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today. Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||Top||13-45||Loss||-110||32 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.
|12-09-18||Panthers v. Browns OVER 47||Top||20-26||Loss||-117||22 h 8 m||Show|
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 47 Points - Carolina @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Both teams are coming off misleading finals last week and played in games that stayed below the posted totals. The Browns were in Houston last week and their game ended with just 42 total points. The Texans put up 29 but the Browns managed just 13. Cleveland racked up 428 total yards of offense but missed on several scoring opportunities with key turnovers. Had the Browns averaged their normal yards per point (16.3) in that game they would’ve scored 26 points. The Cleveland defense has gotten steadily worse as the year has gone on as they gave up less 20PPG average in their first three games but have now allowed over 28PPG their last seven games. Cleveland’s offense has moved the ball in their last four games with 388 yards, 427, 342 and 428 total yards. Carolina has the 27th ranked yards per points allowed defense at 13.8YPPT and is giving up 26PPG. The Panthers are coming off a deceiving game last week with just 17 points against the Bucs. Cam Newton threw 4 costly interceptions, including one in the redzone while the Bucs fumbled once going into score. Both had key penalties that cost them TD’s instead of field goals or that game would have been much higher scoring. The Panthers have a top 10 efficiency offense that averages 25.3PPG and 14.9YPPT. Look for both offenses to rebound after poor showings a week ago which leads to a shootout. The numbers say OVER the total!
|12-06-18||Jaguars +6 v. Titans||Top||9-30||Loss||-115||4 h 28 m||Show|
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET
These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home. Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much. The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6. The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB. They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span. The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP. Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG). Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting. That’s going to be very tough in our opinion. The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles. He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him. That’s the recipe for success again tonight. Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win. Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6). Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different. If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright.
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||Top||33-30||Loss||-120||30 h 21 m||Show|
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR
We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos. The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road. On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win. With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances. They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one. Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score. Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game. We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation. Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now. They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG. Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points. The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders. Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year. In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits. LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here. Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot. The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center. We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers.
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots OVER 49||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||26 h 25 m||Show|
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Minnesota @ New England, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
There is some value on the OVER in this game in our opinion. Simply looking back at recent games and recent opponents you’ll see what we mean. Last week Minnesota played Green Bay and the total was 48. The two teams scored 21 points in the first 16:00 minutes and had 28 at half. They both blew some opportunities in the 2nd half and it stayed UNDER. Three weeks ago Minnesota played Detroit (who ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency) and that total was 47.5. Now they play a New England team that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency and just 19th in defensive efficiency yet the total is very near the same as the Vikings game vs Detroit. Now let’s look at the Patriot recent schedule. They played Tennessee a few weeks ago who is solid defensively but ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and that total was set at 47. Last week the Patriots game vs the Jets had a total of 46.5 despite the fact the Jets had scored just 17, 10, 6, and 10 points leading into last week’s game where they scored just 13. Minnesota is MUCH better offensively than both of those teams yet this total is set just a few points higher. The Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game but one this year. New England has put up at least 25 points in 8 of their 11 games and at home they’ve scored 27, 38, 38, 43, and 31 points. Contributing to this low total is the fact the Pats have gone UNDER in 4 straight games and Minnesota has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4. Now the oddsmakers have over adjusted for BOTH of these teams and the value is on the OVER. Rain is a possibility on Sunday in Boston, however light winds are in the forecast which is key. Both offenses should move the ball in this one and we take the OVER.
|12-01-18||Stanford v. California +3.5||Top||23-13||Loss||-110||26 h 8 m||Show|
#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday.
|11-25-18||Steelers v. Broncos +3||Top||17-24||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH
Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week. They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16. That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs. Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted. Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week. Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle. They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston. The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980. On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents. These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games. We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-101||3 h 45 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses. The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit. Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion. These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4. Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above. That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be. The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year. They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road. Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points. Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions. Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit). When they’ve had to play better teams away from home, they’ve lost. These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those. We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday.
|11-24-18||Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5||Top||37-15||Loss||-110||17 h 46 m||Show|
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will.
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +3.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-110||23 h 57 m||Show|
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET
Brutal spot here for Chicago. They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road. Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start. The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota. If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB. We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway. His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road. Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2. They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game. Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here. All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth. After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina. They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago. That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit. So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62.5||Top||51-54||Win||100||4 h 47 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 62.5 Points - Kansas City @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET
We realize this is a very high total (highest ever) but we think the OVER is the play here. We like both teams to get into the 30’s tonight. KC has scored at least 30 in 8 of their 10 games while the LA Rams have done the same. The Chiefs and their opponents have scored at least 55 points in 6 of their 10 games this year. The Rams and their opponents have scored at least 56 points in 6 of their 10 games. These two teams lead the NFL in yards per play offense averaging a ridiculous 6.9 YPP. KC has played 2 of the top 8 YPP offenses this year and those games resulted in 79 points (vs Pitt) and 66 points (vs Chargers). The Rams have played 3 of the top 8 YPP offense this year and those games have resulted in 90 points (vs Saints), 58 points (vs Chargers), and 58 points (vs Packers). Defensively neither of these teams are very good. They both rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Most might be tempted to lean under where the total is set so high but historically that has been a losing proposition. In fact, since 2000 there have been 12 games with a total of 58 or higher and the OVER is 9-2-1 in those games. The last two seasons there have been 3 games that have had a total of 58 or higher and the OVER cashed on all 3 of those. Both teams push into the 30’s here and this one goes OVER.
|11-18-18||Vikings +2.5 v. Bears||Top||20-25||Loss||-101||6 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog!
|11-17-18||Iowa State v. Texas OVER 46.5||Top||10-24||Loss||-115||25 h 20 m||Show|
ASA 10* TOP PLAY Over the total – Iowa State @ Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This total is well too low in our opinion. We had it projected in the mid 50’s and we’re getting a full TD+ less than that here. Part of the reason for the low number might be the recent history between these teams which has been low scoring. However, keep in mind neither of these coaches have been at the school very long (Herman in his 2nd year @ Texas & Campbell in his 3rd year @ ISU) so those historical numbers aren’t as important in our analysis. Last year Texas won this match up 17-7 and the year before it was Texas 27-6. Those totals were set at 62 & 69 respectively and now this one sits below 50 because of those two results. The ISU offense is much improved this year while the Texas defense is down allowing 420 YPG. We see no way that UT shuts down the Cyclone offense that has scored 48, 30, 40, 27, and 28 points their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense has allowed at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense did shut down TCU & KSU to 16 & 14 points respectively in their first two conference games but those are the 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 12 in scoring offense with the other being Kansas who Texas plays next weekend. Even with the poor offenses in play in those two games, the totals were BOTH set higher than this on (48.5 & 50). Herman has his offense humming in his 2nd year as head coach. They have scored at least 28 points in all but 2 games this year. They play fast averaging 76 plays per game which is 16th nationally. They are a tough offense to defend as they are very balanced. Iowa State’s overall defensive numbers are off in our mind. They played very well against weak offenses this year (Kansas & TCU) and have one outlier game where they shut down WVU’s offense to 14 points. That is not the norm for this team. It was just one of those games in our opinion. Last week it may look like they played great defensively holding a middle of the pack Baylor offense to just 14 points. Take a closer look. The Bears had over 500 yards of total offense but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside the ISU 15-yard line. That 28-14 final was very misleading as Baylor potentially left 20+ points off the board in that game. Even with that those two got to 42 points which isn’t far off this posted total. Offensively, ISU struggled early in the year but since switching to Brock Purdy at QB in early October. In his 5 starts the Cyclones are averaging 34 PPG and have not been held under 27 in any of those games. We also like the fact that ISU tends to play how their opponent plays. They can play fast or slow. They were in grinder, low-scoring games TCU & Kansas but vs teams that are similar in style to Texas (Okla St, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma) they were involved in high scoring games (90, 71, and 64 points scored respectively). In games they can get a lead and grind the offense they do that. In games where they have trouble slowing down the other team, which we feel they will here, they have to score to keep up and they do just that. We don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense in this game. Both teams have been quite efficient on a yards per point basis with Texas averaging 12.9 & ISU 13.7. The weather looks perfect in Austin with temps in the mid 60’s and light wins in the forecast at gametime. This one goes OVER this total easily.
|11-17-18||Wisconsin v. Purdue -4||Top||47-44||Loss||-105||21 h 47 m||Show|
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one.
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks -3||Top||24-27||Push||0||5 h 3 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET
This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers. It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week. Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel. They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week. That is as tough a schedule as you could map out. Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season. They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL. Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31. Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST! Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL). That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game. Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s. It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s. On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season). Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights. They are just 2-8 SU this year. GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks. Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above. The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more.
|11-11-18||Dolphins v. Packers -10||Top||12-31||Win||100||27 h 24 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
This is an absolute must win for the Packers. They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots. They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes. The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL. They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17. The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game. Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense. The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG. Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs. They did not score an offensive TD. With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion. The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game. Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games. The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games. All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points. Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points. The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team. We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s.
|11-11-18||Lions +7.5 v. Bears||Top||22-34||Loss||-135||24 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH
Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story. Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards! That’s it. They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense. Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference. The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards. Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week. The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home. The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was. This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits. The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012. Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year. On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa). Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September. Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago? Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky? We’ll take it.
|11-10-18||Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame||Top||13-42||Loss||-115||31 h 45 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215
|11-04-18||Texans v. Broncos||Top||19-17||Loss||-115||27 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH
Hmmm? We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored. Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game. The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49. They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points. Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore. The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home. Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT. The home team should have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders). They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL). That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league. By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking. That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground. The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home. Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th. Lay the small number with Denver.
|11-04-18||Bucs +7 v. Panthers||Top||28-42||Loss||-130||24 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH
We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB. Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us. Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3. Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff. Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season. Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16. He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG. The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend. Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore. They played very well but were an underdog in that game. Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role. This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less. The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer. The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season). With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points. We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset. Take the points.
|11-03-18||Penn State v. Michigan -12||Top||7-42||Win||100||27 h 60 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406
|10-28-18||49ers -1 v. Cardinals||Top||15-18||Loss||-115||24 h 5 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR
We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down. They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB. He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts. Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least. They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses. Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team. Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats. In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10! That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo. San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively. We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games. Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid. The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year. They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season. They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season. That’s bad folks. While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray. They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded. We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team. The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him. We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday.
|10-28-18||Browns v. Steelers -7.5||Top||18-33||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH
Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh. The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season. They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati. They also dominated those games on the stat sheet. They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season. In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in. Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win. Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games. They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks. They look like they are running out of gas to us. They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards. Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland. Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game. The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense). The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD. The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping. Lay it.
|10-27-18||Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5||Top||35-38||Win||100||29 h 58 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180
|10-27-18||Washington State v. Stanford -2.5||Top||41-38||Loss||-110||28 h 53 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162
|10-21-18||Saints v. Ravens -2.5||Top||24-23||Loss||-116||4 h 21 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET
This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5 Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away.
|10-21-18||Panthers +5 v. Eagles||Top||21-17||Win||100||1 h 6 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points.
|10-20-18||Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 45||Top||3-19||Loss||-110||29 h 29 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers OVER 46||Top||30-33||Win||100||6 h 15 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 46 Points - Arizona @ Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET
Both of these teams are 4-1 to the OVER this year and we expect another high scoring game on Monday night. Much has been made of Aaron Rodgers knee problem but the fact is the offense is clicking right now knee problem or not. They have topped 400 yards in each of the last 2 games and while they scored 22 and 23 points in those games, it should have been much more. Last week vs Detroit they put up 23 points but the normally reliable Mason Crosby missed 4 FG’s and an extra point thus leaving a potential 13 more points off the board. A week earlier Green Bay had 19 points just a few minutes into the 2nd half but a terrible Buffalo offense had yet to score so the Pack went pretty conservative offensively and only score one more FG the rest of the way. We don’t anticipate that happening here. Green Bay needs a breakout performance (scoring wise) and we think they get it tonight vs a SF defense that has allowed 24, 27, 38, 29, and 28 points in their 5 games this season. The Niners are 23rd in pass efficiency defense and they do not put much pressure on the QB (1.8 sacks per game). Rodgers should have a big night. There is also a good chance he gets WR’s Cobb and Allison back as they practiced on Thursday and they are game time decisions. Many thought the Niners offense would go in the tank once they lost QB Garopollo for the season. That really hasn’t been the case as his back up CJ Beathard has led this offense to 27 & 18 points in his absence. Last week’s 18 point performance should have been MUCH higher as they put up 447 yards vs a solid Arizona defense but missed a FG and had 5 turnovers – many in Arizona territory. Beathard has thrown for 298 & 349 yards in his 2 starts but he’s also prone to mistakes as he’s turned the ball over 4 times. Those can lead to defensive scores as he’s given up one in each of his two starts. The only shut down game for Green Bay’s defense this year was their shutout vs Buffalo. Let’s not forget the Bills are the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 12 PPG and a terrible 3.7 yards per play which is by far the lowest in the league. Throw out that game and the Packer defense has allowed an average of 28.5 PPG. The weather looks decent tonight with temps in the 30’s and little wind (10 MPH or less). We like the OVER tonight.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||Top||40-43||Push||0||32 h 27 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement. Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years. Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game? Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here. New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night. While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date. They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense). To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks. Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6. The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions. QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s. We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one. The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense. We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS). They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010. KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them. The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots. Lay the small number with New England.
|10-14-18||Rams v. Broncos +7||Top||23-20||Win||100||28 h 11 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year. They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31. IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season. Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude. They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets. The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010. They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday. While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home. They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter. They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team. You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more. The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8. After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3. Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL. That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC. This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here.
|10-14-18||Colts +2 v. Jets||Top||34-42||Loss||-110||25 h 5 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold. The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look. People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home. Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards. It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game. Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL. NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday. Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver. The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night. Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses. Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT). The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid. They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game. Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss. He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games. We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -6.5||Top||20-31||Win||100||33 h 20 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156
|10-07-18||Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs||Top||14-30||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We’re getting points with the better team here. Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme. We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game. They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories. Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed. KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them. While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst. They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency. The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans. They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense. We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here. KC is overvalued right now because of their offense. They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense. They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense. The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP. This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot. We’ll make sure we do. Take the Jags here.
|10-06-18||Iowa -7 v. Minnesota||Top||48-31||Win||100||39 h 27 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387
|09-30-18||Ravens +3 v. Steelers||Top||26-14||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points. That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th. The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season. On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one. The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa. However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense. The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game. Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season. They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday. Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense. Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year. Take the points.
|09-30-18||Saints v. Giants UNDER 52||Top||33-18||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 52 Points - New Orleans @ NY Giants, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
We like the value with the number here as this total has been bet all the way up to 52 after opening at 49. Vegas is forced to set the number this high as the Saints have played two games that ended with 168 total combined points. But those games came against the Falcons and Bucs who both have horrible defenses (29th and 30th in defensive efficiency) and good offenses (TB 5th, ATL 12th in offensive efficiency). That produced to VERY high scoring games with the Saints. In their other game against the Browns (similar to the Giants) they totaled just 39 points. What's important to note here is that the Saints defense has some ugly statistics this season, but again, consider they've played two really bad defenses and padded those numbers. The same can be said about their offense. The Giants meanwhile have played two of three low scoring affairs with totals of 35, 33 and 49 points. In their game in Houston last week the Giants and Texans had just 35 total points with 2 minutes to play before two late garbage TD's by the Texans (1 came with 1 second left). The Giants are allowing just 20.7PPG and have the 9th best yards per point defense in the NFL. You have to go back a few years to find a Giants game with a total set this high which tells us enough. New York is 27th in the NFL in pace of play while the Saints are 21st. In the last seven meetings in the Big Apple the Under has cashed 5 times. Bet UNDER!
|09-30-18||Browns v. Raiders -2.5||Top||42-45||Win||100||26 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET
If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg). The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders.
|09-29-18||South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||34 h 51 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141
|09-27-18||Vikings +7.5 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET
The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record. The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo. They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite. A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck. The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over. Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan. They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes. The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits. Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6. The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3. Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss. They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe. Take the points here.
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||Top||14-27||Win||100||23 h 5 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH
The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL. Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points. Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win. Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games. Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster. Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts. A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense. Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games. Expect a big day from him. The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game. They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year. Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread. Baltimore by a TD or more in this one.
|09-22-18||Air Force v. Utah State -10.5||Top||32-42||Loss||-108||36 h 59 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392
|09-16-18||Giants v. Cowboys OVER 41.5||Top||13-20||Loss||-110||9 h 59 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 41.5 Points - NY Giants @ Dalllas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
Because of the way these two offenses performed in week 1, we’re getting some solid value on the OVER here. The total opened 43.5 and has dropped ever since and we’re now jumping on the OVER. Last week Dallas scored only 8 points and the NY Giants put up just 15. While neither team lit it up yardage wise, both moved the ball enough to score more than what they did a week ago. Also keep in mind both were facing top 10 defenses from a year ago (Jacksonville & Carolina) so the struggles weren’t completely surprising. We expect the Giants to have a much better offense this year despite what happened last week. They have shored up their offensive line and they have added more weapons including RB Saquon Barkley. They also have WR Odell Beckham back at full strength and with him in the line-up last year they averaged 23 PPG compared to 13 PPG when he was not available. Dallas didn’t look as good offensively as the Giants but they have potential with one of the top RB’s in the league along with a solid QB in Dak Prescott. We’re pretty sure both teams stressed offensive performance and finishing drives in practice this week so expect a better performance from each. If this total stays at 42 or less, it will be the lowest total set on this rivalry since 2005. They’ve simply adjusted this one too much and we take the OVER.
|09-16-18||Raiders v. Broncos UNDER 45.5||Top||19-20||Win||100||5 h 2 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points - Oakland @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
Denver put up 27 points last week on Seattle which may look impressive but the Seahawks defense is nowhere near what it used to be. We anticipate Seattle’s defense, who lost 5 former pro-bowlers off last year’s defense alone, to be in the lower third of the league. We took advantage of that last week using the OVER in Seattle – Denver and cashed in. That was set at 42 and this week it’s 45 or 45.5 in this game. Despite giving up 33 points last week to the Rams, the Oakland defense was fairly impressive in our minds. They held one of, if not the best, offense to just 98 yards and 10 points in the first half. For the game the Rams only had 365 yards and 26 points if you take away the late pick 6 LA had. So not bad at all for the Raider defense. Denver’s defense was solid last week allowing Seattle only 306 total yards. The Broncos were the top total defense in the NFL last year allowing 290 YPG and we expect them to be near the top again this year. Neither of these offenses is overly dynamic and both teams know each other very well being a division match up. 5 of the last 6 in this series have gone UNDER the total and Oakland had now gone UNDER in 8 straight games dating back to last year. We anticipate a defensive grinder here and we’re on the UNDER.
|09-15-18||Washington -4.5 v. Utah||Top||21-7||Win||100||35 h 44 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205
|09-09-18||Seahawks v. Broncos OVER 42||Top||24-27||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - Seattle @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
The Seahawks were long known as one of the top defenses on the NFL and they look like they are still living off those laurels as this total is set too low. Seattle has lost a ton of defensive talent over the last few years including 5 former pro bowlers off last year’s team alone (Chancellor, Sherman, Avril, Bennett, and Richardson). Last year they finished outside the top 10 in total defense for the first time since 2010 and we look for a further drop this year minus those players. We project the Seattle defense to finish in the bottom half of the league this season. The Denver defense also fell off drastically last year after allowing 18 PPG in 2016 the allowed 24 PPG a year ago. So both defenses a bit overrated entering the season in our minds. Offensively Denver should improve greatly with new QB Case Keenum who is a big upgrade over the Bronco QB’s last year (Siemian, Osweiler, and Lynch). He has some very good weapons at wideout and TE so we look for an improvement on last year’s 21 PPG. Seattle averaged 23 PPG last year and with Russell Wilson at QB they are always a threat to put up big numbers. They scored over 20 points in 10 of their 16 games last year and we have a feeling with their defense taking a big step back Seattle will have to be aggressive offensive to try and outscore people this year.
|09-09-18||Cowboys +3 v. Panthers||Top||8-16||Loss||-100||6 h 38 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout.
|09-08-18||Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State||Top||13-16||Loss||-102||36 h 58 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 47||Top||17-24||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
10* UNDER the total – Michigan @ Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET We expect both defenses to dominate this game. Michigan had one of the best defenses in the nation last year allowing their opponents just 271 YPG (3rd nationally). The Wolverines held 9 of their 13 opponents last year to 20 points or less. They return nearly everyone on defense including 9 starters and 17 of their top 20 tacklers. Our word from Ann Arbor is their defensive line has been absolutely dominant in practice and we expect them to be the best unit on the field on Saturday. They’ll be facing a Notre Dame offense that likes to run and simply isn’t very good at throwing the football. Irish starting QB Wimbush struggle with accuracy last year hitting under 50% of his pass attempts and those struggles have continued in practice this year per our reports. Notre Dame also had to replace 3 of their 5 starting offensively lineman so they’ll have big problems with this Michigan defense. Offensively, Michigan likes to run the ball more often than not as well. They are breaking in a new QB in Shea Patterson who had some success at Ole Miss but is still learning the ropes with his new offense. Patterson will now be without one of his top wideouts as starter Tarik Black injured his foot and won’t be playing in this game. Expect Harbaugh to be conservative with his offense and lean heavily on his defense in this game. We like the Irish defense, with 9 starters back, much better than their offense going into the season. They also held 9 of their 13 opponents to 20 points or less last season and return 9 of their top 11 tacklers. We envision this being a field position, defensive type battle and UNDER is the play.
|01-21-18||Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39||Top||7-38||Loss||-105||49 h 7 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points - Minnesota @ Philadelphia, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET
This is a low number (currently 39 as we post this) but it is definitely warranted. These two defenses have been stellar all season. The Vikings rank 1st in total defense while Philly ranks 4th. They rank 1st and 2nd in rush defense. These two defenses are very good at getting opposing offenses off the field which keeps points off the board. Minnesota allows an opponent success rate of just 25% on 3rd down which is the best number in that category since the 1975 season! Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in that stat allowing just a 32% success rate on 3rd down. The Eagle offense has dropped off considerably since the injury to Carson Wentz. They were averaging 391 YPG but have tailed off to just 278 YPG with Foles at QB. They have scored just 34 points in their last 3 games combined. The Minnesota offense has been better at home this year putting up 390 YPG to just 328 on the road. The Viking defense has allowed only FIVE of their 17 opponents this year to reach 20 points. Philadelphia’s defense is allowing only 13 PPG at home this year and they have allowed only 12 total TD’s at home in 9 games. This looks like a defensive/field position battle and we grab the UNDER.
|01-21-18||Jaguars v. Patriots -7||Top||20-24||Loss||-104||47 h 56 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -7 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
This line has dropped from 9.5 down to -7 with concerns of Tom Brady’s throwing hand which was banged up in practice earlier this week. Brady was seen practicing and throwing with a glove on his hand late in the week. We all know the Pats and Belichick are very good at throwing out this type of stuff leading into big games and while we don’t necessarily want to say this is a hoax as Brady may have banged his hand in practice, we’ll guess it’s not all that serious and he’ll be fine. With that being said, we like the Pats here. While Jacksonville won a huge game @ Pittsburgh last week, let’s remember the Steelers were their own worst enemy AGAIN! The Steelers outgained the Jags by 170 yards but had 2 turnovers (including a fumble returned for a TD) and were stopped twice in Jacksonville territory on 4th and short situations. While we did like Pittsburgh last week, they are not well coached in our opinion and have a tendency to play great some games and sort of get in their own way in others. New England doesn’t do that. They will not “give” the game away to Jacksonville by gifting them with mistakes as Pitt did in both games vs the Jags. The Patriots have a huge experience edge in this situations as well as a massive coaching edge. This is their 7th consecutive AFC Championship game while Jacksonville last appeared in this game way back in 1999 (two years after we opened our doors as ASA Inc)! The Patriots have a big edge offensively and a Grand Canyon sized edge at QB. While the Jags are very good defensively, let’s not forget that the Patriot defense has given up fewer points than any other team in the NFL since week 5. The Jags pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL but they have faced only 3 QB’s all season long ranked in the top 10 in QBR and two of those teams lit them up pretty good. Situationally, the Jags are coming off possibly their biggest win in franchise history and they are on the road again this week. This is actually their 4th road game in the last 5 week. They scored 45 points in their win last week which is a terrible omen as teams they score 40 or more points in a playoff win are a terrible 4-25 ATS their following game! Let’s also not forget this Jacksonville offense has scored only 10 points in each of their previous two games vs Buffalo and Tennessee leading into last week’s win. Brady has started in 21 home playoff games and he’s won 18 of them. He’s also covered 65% of his home playoff games. We think the Jags will hang around for awhile the Pats, who’ve outscored their opponents 80-25 in the 2nd half of their last 4 playoffs games, will pull away and pick up a double digit win.
|01-14-18||Jaguars v. Steelers -7||Top||45-42||Loss||-105||46 h 59 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 1PM ET - Let's start with the value here and the pointspread. Earlier this season Pittsburgh was favored by the same number as they are here but now the Steelers are rested off a bye week, playing with revenge and catch a Jags team trending down. Jacksonville closed the season with losses at San Francisco(6-10) and at Tennessee before a close home win over the Bills last weekend in the Wildcard. The Jaguars offense has not looked good the past two weeks with just 230 total yards last week against a Buffalo defense that was league average by our metrics. Jags QB Blake Bortles threw for just 87 yards last weekend after throwing for just 158 yards and 2 INT's the week before against the Titans. Bortles has had a QB rating of 76 or lower his last three starts and has thrown 5 INT's to just 3 TD's in that same span. The Steelers pass defense was outstanding to start the season with cornerback Joe Haden but slipped to below league average without him their final five games. Haden is back here which impacts the Steelers rush defense as they can add a player to the box to stop the run. Pittsburgh will be at full strength offensively here with WR Brown back in the lineup after a calf injury. The Steelers were 6-2 SU at home this year with impressive wins over Minnesota and a surging Ravens team at the end of the season. Pittsburgh's margin of victory in those 6 home wins was 11PPG. One of the Steelers homes losses came to this same Jacksonville team and it was one of Big Ben's worst games in his career. Roethlisberger was picked off 5 times, two of which were returned for TD's. The Steelers outgained the Jags by 58 yards yet lost by 21-points. The Jags need to run the football which will be difficult versus a Steelers stop-unit that allows just 105 rushing yards per game which is 10th in the NFL. What makes that number more meaningful is the fact that the Steelers faced 6 rushing offenses that were 11th or better in the NFL this season. Jacksonville was great against the pass this season but horrendous against the run so expect a heavy dose of Steelers RB Bell here. Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 6-1 ATS his last seven home playoff games. The nail in the coffin here is the fact the Jags played the second easiest schedule this season and their true colors started to show late in the season when games mattered. Now in this situation they get manhandled by a rested, motivated Steelers team at home. Lay it!
|01-13-18||Falcons v. Eagles +3||Top||10-15||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +3 over Atlanta, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET
This is the first time EVER that a #1 seed has been an underdog at home in the playoffs. You think Philly will be extra motivated for this one knowing they aren’t expected to even win the game? We do. Now of course Nick Foles isn’t Carson Wentz but he is at least an experienced back up that has had some really solid numbers in his career including his 27 TD and 2 interception season a few years ago for the Eagles. Foles won 2 of the 3 games he started in place of Wentz with his only loss coming to end the season in a meaningless game vs Dallas as the Eagles had already locked up the #1 seed. Now we get this team rested up, with extra motivation at home where their only loss this year was in that meaningless season ender. Atlanta will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks and was on the west coast upsetting the Rams last week. Speaking of that upset, teams that win outright as an underdog in the wildcard round are just 21-37 ATS (12-46 SU which applies here as Atlanta is the favorite) in the Division round. Atlanta’s offense is nowhere near as potent as they were last season putting up nearly 1,000 fewer yards and 27 fewer TD’s than last season. They will run into a brick wall here as the Eagle defense is really good ranking 4th in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense. The Philly defense allowed only 13 PPG at home this year allowing only 11 TD’s the entire season at home. If Atlanta doesn’t get to 20 points, which we don’t think they will, they are in trouble. That because this Falcon team is 0-6 SU this season when they don’t reach 20 points. Weather will also benefit the Eagles here as the temperature is expected to be 21 degrees with the windchill. Atlanta is obviously a dome team and they haven’t played in a game this year with the temp below 40 degrees. The Birds haven’t won a game with the temp below 40 degrees since the 2009 season. Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are 26-13-2 ATS since 1980 and we have a feeling that Philly wins this game and hosts the NFC Championship game next week.
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 46||Top||26-23||Loss||-120||8 h 9 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 46 National Championship Game, 8 PM ET - When we crunch the numbers on this game with our predictive Math Model it projects out a total of 38 points being scored. Vegas had this game as low as 44 points but it has now been bet up to 45.5 which makes the key numbers of both 44 and 45 on totals now winning numbers. That move by the oddsmakers gives us the value we needed to make this wager. Both of these teams have been fantastic on defense this season and Georgia's crazy high-scoring win over Oklahoma last week doesn't change the fact that this is an SEC battle in the trenches! Georgia has allowed just 15.7 PPG on the season which ranks them among the best in the Nation and Alabama has done even better having allowed only 11.1 PPG this season. The Bulldogs were able to pile up yardage against a porous Sooners defense but they won't find those same holes against a Crimson Tide defense that just held Clemson under 200 total yards of offense in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama will have problems scoring here too with an offense that averaged only 20.7 PPG in their three games as a single digit favorite this season. The point is that, when challenged (games against Clemson, Auburn, and Florida State), the mighty Tide weren't so mighty on offense. Alabama averaged only 281.3 yards per game in those 3 match-ups. Now the Crimson Tide face a Georgia defense that allowed less than 285 yards in 11 of their 13 games prior to the shootout with OU last week. With an all-SEC Championship final and a game very likely to be a dogfight we like a lower scoring game and side with the UNDER!
|01-07-18||Bills v. Jaguars -9||Top||3-10||Loss||-105||45 h 4 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville -9 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
We’ve been anti Buffalo for much of the year and feel they are absolutely not worthy of being a playoff team. They were outgained in 13 of their 16 games this year which led to their -53 YPG yard differential on the year. Last week they went to Miami and won a tight game 22-16 and they were outgained by a Dolphin offense that played David Fales at QB who hadn’t thrown a pass all season long and had only 2 career completions. We were on the Fins in that game and are very confident that if Jay Cutler would have played the entire game (he played only 1 series) the Bills wouldn’t even be in the playoffs right now. The Bills also have a -57 point differential on the season which is the worst by far of the 12 playoff teams. In fact, there are 20 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential than Buffalo. The only other team in the post-season with a negative point differential is Tennessee at -22. By comparison, Jacksonville checks in with a point differential of +149 which is 2nd in the AFC behind New England only. The Jags clinched the AFC South a few weeks ago and are coming off back to back losses in meaningless games. We actually like the fact they’ve lost a few in a row entering this contest giving them a little extra motivation here. Jacksonville’s defense is fantastic ranking 2nd in the NFL behind Minnesota allowing just 286 YPG. That will be a problem here for a Buffalo team that is not very explosive (22nd in PPG scored & 29th in total offense) and might be without their top offensive weapon LeSean McCoy which would be a huge loss. McCoy accounts for 33% of the Bills offense which is 2nd most in the NFL by any player (behind only Gurley of the Rams). Also keep in mind that Buffalo put up those poor offensive numbers this season despite playing only 3 games all season vs defenses that ended the year in the top 10 in total defense. The Jacksonville offense is surprisingly good this year ranking 5th in the NFL in scoring and they’ve put up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games entering the playoffs. They will be able to run with Leonard Fournette facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 29th in the NFL at stopping the run. That takes some pressure off Jacksonville QB Bortles who is much better when he doesn’t have to carry the load offensively. Buffalo, on the flip side, will have problems running the ball in this game without McCoy. Even if he plays he is not close to 100%. That leaves Buffalo’s running game with Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy who was recently brought up from the practice squad. We know the Bills struggle to pass ranking 2nd to last in the NFL in that category and they’ll be facing the #1 pass defense in the NFL in this game. If Buffalo’s ground game struggles, which it will, they are in big trouble here on offense. Their defense isn’t good enough to shut down Jacksonville and we see the Jaguars winning this game by 10+ points.
|01-06-18||Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5||Top||22-21||Win||100||24 h 29 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points - Tennessee @ Kansas City, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET
We view this Tennessee offense as one of the worst in the Playoffs along with Buffalo. They aren’t a high powered unit scoring 20 PPG which ranks them 19th in the NFL. They also are the worst 3rd down percentage team in the playoffs at 35% (25th in the NFL) which means they struggle to keep drives alive which means fewer points. They are a poor passing team averaging just 199 YPG and Mariota is very inconsistent. They can run the ball OK and we expect them to do that here vs a poor Chiefs run defense that allows 119 YPG rushing. That means not a lot of big plays in the passing game from Tennessee and run game that will eat clock. This Titan offense topped 20 points only ONCE over their final 7 road games this season. The KC offense struggles in the red zone scoring TD’s just 42% of the time which ranks them 29th in the NFL. The Titan defense is in the top 10 when it comes to allowing opponents to score TD’s in the red zone to KC should struggle finding the endzone here. Both teams are slower paced offenses with KC ranking 30th in pace averaging one snap every 29 seconds while Tennessee ranks 26th in the same category averaging a snap every 28.5 seconds. The Chiefs have been a VERY strong UNDER team at home with a record of 47-24-2 to the UNDER in Arrowhead since 2009. They didn’t have a single home game reach 50 points this season and they averaged just 40.8 total points at home this season. These two met last year in December here @ Arrowhead Stadium and the final score was 19-17 in favor of the Titans. We see a similar offensive output here. Take the UNDER.
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5||Top||26-19||Loss||-100||46 h 42 m||Show|
#266 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over South Carolina, Monday at 12:00 PM ET We feel this is a defense vs offense mismatch in favor of the Wolverines. The Gamecocks offense is not good. They rank 107th nationally in total offense averaging only 341 YPG. The two best defenses they played this year (Clemson & Georgia) both completely shut this team down. In those two games the Gamecocks scored just 10 points in each game and averaged only 237 total YPG in those two games. Now they face a Michigan defense that is every bit as good as those two stop units as they rank 3rd nationally in total defense allowing only 268 YPG. Only 3 teams all season long scored more than 20 points vs Michigan and those were the 3 best teams in the Big Ten (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin). We expect South Carolina to struggle big time offensively here. The Michigan offense had their issues this year but when they had Peters at QB they were pretty good as they scored 30+ points in 3 of the 4 games he started. He’s back and ready to go which really gives a boost to Michigan’s offense. This gives Michigan an advantage on BOTH sides of the ball in this game. We’ve been anti South Carolina all season long as this is a team that seem to get a bit lucky in some of their wins with defensive and special teams scores. In fact, this team is 8-4 but they were outgained by nearly 40 YPG on the season. The Big Ten has been very successful in this bowl season as of this writing (Saturday afternoon) and we look for that to continue. Michigan is the play.
|12-31-17||Bills v. Dolphins +3||Top||22-16||Loss||-130||24 h 10 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET
These two played just 2 weeks ago and Buffalo was favored by 3.5 at home. The Bills won that game 24-16 but the yardage was nearly even. Now they are favored by nearly the same number on the road giving us very good value with Miami in this game. Buffalo is one of those teams that “has to” win which is why the line is set where it is. The fact is, the teams that have to win don’t always win. Especially with a team that isn’t all that great to begin with. Buffalo is a team that really shouldn’t be sitting the position they are. The Bills sit with an 8-7 record, however they’ve been outgained by 53 YPG on the season and they have a -63 point differential. They have outgained only 3 of their 15 opponents this season! The only time they’ve been favored on the road this year was @ NY Jets and they lost that game by 13 points. That makes Buffalo 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored on the road dating back to 2014. They are also just 8-15 SU their last 23 trips to Miami. The Fins have played well at home down the stretch beating both New England and Denver as home underdogs in their last 2 here. We look for Miami to play hard at home and close out the season with an outright win. Take the points.
|12-31-17||Packers v. Lions OVER 43||Top||11-35||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 Points - Green Bay @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
Both these teams had stinkers offensively last week and we expect a bounce back on that side of the ball on Sunday. Green Bay was shutout at home by one of the top defenses in the NFL (Minnesota). Detroit scored just 17 points in a loss @ Cincinnati which took them out of the playoff race. The Packers with Hundley at QB have been much better on the road averaging 25 PPG compared to just 13 at home. They’ve done so against some very solid defenses scoring 24 @ Carolina, 28 @ Pittsburgh, and 23 @ Chicago. They now face a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense. Look for Green Bay’s offense to play well. Same with Detroit. Head coach Jim Caldwell said he has no plans to sit starters here and that includes QB Matt Stafford. The Lions put up 30 points @ Green Bay in November and we see them putting up similar numbers here vs a poor Packer defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL. Two teams that are out of the playoffs, two teams with poor defenses, and perfect conditions in the dome in Detroit lead to a high scoring game. Take the OVER in this one.
|12-30-17||Iowa State +4.5 v. Memphis||Top||21-20||Win||100||19 h 26 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON IOWA STATE +4.5 over Memphis, Liberty Bowl, Saturday Dec 30th @ 12:30 PM ET – This was one game we immediately circled when the lines came out and feel the better team is getting points here. Memphis is basically playing a home game here but is that a huge benefit for a Bowl team? Isn't it more fun, exciting and less distracting for the players to travel to someplace new as a reward for qualifying for a Bowl? In this situation we don't feel the home field will hold the advantages it normally does for Memphis. A big factor in handicapping Bowl games is knowing if a team is properly motivated to be there and one thing we know for sure, Iowa State will be ready here. The Cyclones have a hot-shot young coach in Matt Campbell who is going to be on the short list for some big programs in the future. Campbell is a fantastic motivator and tactician and the team loves playing for him. This will be the Cyclones first Bowl game since 2012 so we know they'll be excited to be here. Campbell mentioned earlier this week many key players were was banged up at the end of the season but they now look like they did in early September health wise. That’s bad news for Memphis. The Tigers also has a great young coach in Mike Norvell who guided them to the Boca Raton Bowl last year, a loss to Western Kentucky. Memphis has a fast paced, high octane offense that averaged 47 PPG but their offensive numbers are very misleading. The Tigers faced some of the worst defensive teams in college football as 7 of their opponents ranked 82nd or worse in defensive efficiency ratings, 5 of which were 103rd or worse. In fact, the combined DEFF ratings of all the teams they faced was 81st so they should have great offensive numbers. The defense Memphis will face here has been battle tested and is easily the best they’ve faced this season. The Cyclones finished 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense (behind only TCU) and they won’t be fazed by the Tigers offense in this one as they have already faced more potent offenses that this one including Oklahoma (1st in the nation in total offense) and Oklahoma State (2nd in the nation in total offense). Despite facing one of the toughest offensive schedules in the nation, the ISU defense still ranks 31st nationally in DEFF. ISU faced 6 teams that rank in the top 50 in the nation in total offense (4 in the top 20) and won't be 'over their heads' against Memphis. The Cyclones played 7 teams in the top 45 according to Sagarin’s ratings while Memphis played just one, Central Florida, who beat the Tigers twice. ISU has played the 24th toughest schedule while Memphis has played the 86th. Memphis makes a living by turning teams over and that won't happen here as Iowa State has not lost a fumble all season long and they've only thrown 2 INT's in their previous four games. The Clones are no slouch on offense as they averaged 30 PPG this season against the MUCH tougher schedule. They should have a field day here facing a Memphis defense that rates 120th nationally, the worst defense ISU has faced all season long. Not only that, we consider the Tiger defense worse than the actual stats tell due to the fact they played such an easy schedule this season. Memphis is 7-0 SU at home this year but those wins have come against teams with a 29-39 SU record. It's obvious the oddsmakers continue to undervalue Iowa State as they are on a 6-0 ATS run as a dog and 10-1-1 ATS overall this season. They also have some added motivation here as ISU is the Power 5 team in this game yet they are the underdogs. They will be out to prove a point here and let’s not forget this is a very talented team that beat both Oklahoma (on the road) and TCU, the two teams who met in the Big 12 Championship game. We like the Cyclones to win outright!
|12-29-17||USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5||Top||7-24||Loss||-105||6 h 27 m||Show|
ASA PLAY OVER 64.5 USC vs Ohio State, 8:30PM ET Cotton Bowl - The metrics say the OVER is worth a small wager today as the numbers suggest 70 or more points in this one. The Buckeyes play faster and average 2.61 plays per minute which is 19th fastest in college football. USC isn't quite as fast, 2.40 PPM which is still in the top half of college football (53rd). Both teams are VERY efficient offensively as the Trojans rank 10th in the country while the Buckeyes are 2nd. Ohio State has the 12th best yards per point offense at 12.26YPPT and score a point in 49.40 percent of their possessions (5th best in CFB). They score a TD on 40.30 percent of their possession (4th). Ohio State averaged 42PPG which was also 5th in the nation. USC doesn't have quite those numbers but they are 35th in percentage of possession with a point and 27th in TD percentage per possession. The Trojans averaged 35PPG which was 24th nationally. Each offense has big play ability too which is proven by their 24th and 30th ranked explosive offensive plays. Granted Ohio State has some great defensive numbers but they didn't play many fast paced, explosive offenses in the Big Ten. The best offenses they faced, Penn State and Oklahoma scored 38 and 31 points against them. USC gives up 26PPG on the year and are prone to big plays (80th in nation) and penalties (103rd). The numbers say this is going to be a shootout! BET OVER!
|12-28-17||Stanford v. TCU -3||Top||37-39||Loss||-109||28 h 6 m||Show|
#246 ASA 10* PLAY ON TCU -3 over Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – ALAMO BOWL - TCU gets to play in the state of Texas here so they will have the overwhelming crowd advantage in San Antonio. We love looking for teams with a big defensive edge in the bowl games and that’s what we get here. TCU was the 4th best rush defense in the nation holding teams to just 99 YPG on 2.9 YPC. They ranked 18th in total defense nationally and allowed opposing QB to complete just 52% of their passes this year. They held opposing offenses to 122 yards per game below their season averages. Those are fantastic season long numbers and we view them as even better than they might read as they put up those stats in the offensively stout Big 12 which has 4 of the top 19 offenses in the country. This makes a poor match up for Stanford who has a young QB KJ Costello who has played in only 10 games thus far in his college career. While he has been improving and looks to have a bright future, we highly doubt he can carry the load vs this top notch defense. He might have to as Stanford relies on their running game to free him up to pass and that might not happen here facing TCU’s run defense. The only two defenses the Cardinal faced in the Pac 12 that were semi comparable to TCU were Washington & Washington State who are both top 20 defenses. In those two games Stanford averaged only 300 YPG on offense. The Cardinal defense is normally the staple of their team but they are way down this season. They rank 70th or lower in total defense, rush defense, and passing defense. We expect TCU’s offense, with speed and weapons galore, to do very well in this game. The Frogs put up at least 30 points in half their games this season. We also like the fact that TCU was embarrassed by Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game so they feel as though they have something to prove on both sides of the ball here. Lay this small number with the superior team in a home type venue.
|12-25-17||Steelers v. Texans UNDER 45.5||Top||34-6||Win||100||28 h 16 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points - Pittsburgh @ Tennessee, Monday at 4:30 PM ET
The Pitt defense has struggled a bit over the last month but they still rank 7th in the NFL in PPG allowed at just 19.9. They are 4th in the NFL in total defense giving up just 307 YPG. We expect them to play very well on that side of the ball facing a Houston offense that is simply not good. The Texans have scored 7, 16, 13, and 16 points over their last 4 games. Their overall season stats on offense are skewed because they were good when DeShaun Watson was in at QB and they are not when he hasn’t played. In games where Watson was the starting QB the Texans averaged 39 PPG. In 9 games without him under center they put up just 13.7 PPG and have topped 16 points only ONCE! They will struggle on offense again here with their 3rd stringer TJ Yates starting again after putting up 7 points and 186 total yards last week. Pitt’s offense can be dynamic at times but they do often play to the level of their competition. They are also a drastically different offense on the road and playing without WR Antonio Brown in this game. The Steelers have gone UNDER the total in every road game this season and are 19-4-1 to the UNDER their last 24 games away from home. They are averaging just 20.8 PPG on the road this year and facing a Houston defense that we feel will be ready to put in a very solid effort after allowing 45 points last week. If Pitt gets a decent lead we would look for them to run the ball, milk clock, and simply get out of dodge with a win. Both offenses struggle here and we like the UNDER.
|12-24-17||Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys||Top||21-12||Win||100||49 h 36 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH
The betting markets are on the Cowboys here after a blowout loss by the Seahawks last week, and the return of RB Elliott for Dallas. But in reality it's the exact opposite here as the value is on the Hawks plus the points. The Seahawks lost by 35 points last week. NFL teams that were embarrassed the previous week and coming off losses of five TDs or more have some incredible technical support. Since 2003 those teams (off a 5 TD loss) are 55-31 ATS (64%), 44-23 ATS as a dog in that situation and 38-15 ATS as a pooch of 3-points or more. Seattle already has 4 quality road wins this season and will have a QB/coaching advantage in this do-or-die game for both teams. Yes, Zeke is back but Seattle still has a respectable rush defense and the Cowboys will be without their starting left tackle. Dallas has already 4 home losses this year, and even though Seattle has some injury issues, they still have some key efficiency advantages over the Boys. The Dog has covered 4 straight in this series and Seattle is on a 10-3 ATS run when coming off a loss. Grab the points.
|12-24-17||Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 43||Top||33-44||Win||100||4 h 37 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 Points - Jacksonville @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
We like the value with the number here and expect an ‘average’ or better NFL scoring game here (44.4PPG). The Niners with their new QB Jimmy G and head coach Shannahan are starting to click on offense with 25 and 26 points in their last two games. Last Sunday the 49ers score wasn’t indicative of their total yards as they should have scored 34 or more points based on their 410 total yards of offense. San Francisco continues to open the playbook and will continue to build their offense for next season. Yes, they face a Jags defense that is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but are they? In their 14 games this season the Jaguars have squared off against just 3 offenses that rank in the top half of the NFL in efficiency stats. One of those games the Steelers scored just 9 points, but Pittsburgh had put up 370 yards of offense and Big Ben threw 5 INT’s. The other two games the Jags played against good offenses were at home. When everyone talks about Jacksonville they talk defense, but did you know they are 5th in the NFL in scoring, 6th in total yards per game and have scored 30+ in three straight games. The Jags are going up against a bottom 10 defensive team in the 49ers in terms of points allowed and total yards allowed. These two teams get to 45+ here!
|12-24-17||Falcons v. Saints -5.5||Top||13-23||Win||100||45 h 12 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -5.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR
Quick revenge here for the Saints after losing @ Atlanta 20-17 on December 7th, a game New Orleans led 17-10 in the 4th quarter. It was just the 2nd time in the last 10 games where the Saints have been outgained in a game and that was by only 37 yards. The New Orleans offense took a huge hit early in that game when star RB Kamara left the game with a concussion. He was back on the field last week in the Saints 31-19 win over the Jets so he’s ready to go here. We know New Orleans has a great offense leading the NFL at 401 YPG and 6.4 YPP, however the defense has been carrying this team holding opponents to 21 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games. This defense held Atlanta to 20 points on just 5 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago and now the Falcons top offensive weapon, WR Julio Jones, hasn’t practiced this week due to an injury. He may play but won’t be at 100%. In their most recent “step up” division game at home a few weeks ago the Saints dominated the Panthers winning 31-21 and outgained Carolina by 120 yards. We see a similar scenario unfolding here. 9 of the Saints 10 wins this season have been by 8 points or more. On the flip side, Atlanta has 9 wins with 6 of those wins coming by 6 points or fewer (one possession type games). We rate New Orleans better on both sides of the ball and they have a great home field advantage going 6-1 here this year with their only loss being their home opener vs the Patriots. Lay it win the Saints.
|12-23-17||Vikings v. Packers UNDER 41||Top||16-0||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
PLAY UNDER 41 Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers, Saturday 8:30PM ET - We expect a lower scoring game between these two NFC North rivals, especially with Packers QB Rodgers on the shelf. In the first meeting of the season the Vikings essentially ended A-Rodg's season in a 23-10 'under' win. The Vikings have the 3rd best defense in DVOA rankings, allow just 4.7 yards per play (3rd) and give up only 17.3PPG on the season. Since Aaron Rodgers went out the Packers offense has managed just 18PPG (in regulation) and have scored 17 or less points in 4 of those nine games. We feel tonight's game will be eerily similar to the Packers versus Ravens game which ended 23-0. Minnesota is looking to just win this game and get out of Green Bay without injuries. That means a heavy dose of the running game (3rd in the NFL w/30 attempts per game) and less clock stoppage. Also factor in that Vikings QB Case Keenum has NEVER played in a game this cold and won't be making any big plays against an average Packers defense. The Under is now 5-1 the last six meetings. BET UNDER!
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||Top||42-35||Loss||-108||42 h 10 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
The key to Army’s offensive success is not only running the option proficiently, but also making opposing defenses prepare for an offense they are not used to seeing on short notice. Two things are working against the Cadets here, one is the fact that SDSU has had a month off to prepare for the option and the other is Aztec head coach Rocky Long is as good as any defensive mind when it comes to slowing down the option. Long has won 11 of the last 12 times his teams have faced an option based offense and this will be the 3rd option team they have faced this year alone - they were 2-0 in those games. In those games the San Diego State defense held Air Force to 220 yards on 60 carries (just 3.7 YPC) which was 90 yards and a full 1.1 YPC below their season average. They also stopped the other option attack they faced this season, New Mexico, with just 82 yards rushing on 34 carries (2.4 YPC) which was 153 yards and a whopping 3.0 YPC below the Lobos season averages. It wasn’t a fluke as the Aztec defense ranks 8th nationally this season at stopping the run which is a terrible match up for Army as they run the ball 91% of the time which is more than anyone in the country. If the Cadets can’t dominate the ground game they are in big trouble offensively as they average only 30 YPG passing which is dead last in college football, a full 50 yards behind the next worst passing offense. On the other side of the ball, San Diego State is very good at running the ball (253 YPG) and they have one of the top RB’s in the nation in Rashaad Penny who has put up over 2,000 yards on the ground on 7.4 YPC. They should move the ball very efficiently on the ground facing an Army defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 5.0 YPC. While we fully expect SDSU to move the ball on the ground, they also have a solid QB Christian Chapman who ranks 33rd nationally in passing efficiency and has thrown 31 TD’s and just 9 interceptions in his two years as the Aztec starter. SDSU is 9-2 on the year with their only losses coming at the hands of Fresno St & Boise St, both bowl teams. They’ve knocked off 2 very good Pac 12 teams this year beating Stanford and Arizona State. Army had three losses on the season to Ohio State, Tulane, and North Texas and 5 of their 9 wins came by 5 points or less. These two teams have a very comparable strength of schedule, yet San Diego State had MUCH better overall seasonal numbers. The Aztecs averaged 6.2 yards per play while allowing just 5.1 for a differential of +1.1 YPP. Army averaged 6.1 YPP but allowed 6.2 YPP for a negative YPP differential. While State has had a month off, Army upset Navy just two weeks ago which was huge for them. That upset was definitely bigger than actually winning a bowl game for this team so this one could be a letdown for the Cadets. San Diego State is the better team in the better spot and we like them to win by double digits.
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48||Top||24-21||Loss||-114||6 h 50 m||Show|
PLAY OVER Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:30PM ET - This series has been high scoring of late with three straight OVER dating back to the start of last season. In those three games they've combined for 55, 71 and 54 total points. Just as important as the final scores is the yardage these two teams have amassed in those three games too. In the first meeting last season these two clubs racked up 740 total yards, in the second meeting of 2016 they put up 860 total yards. In the clash on Nov 26th of this season they put up 890 total yards. In other words both teams are going to move the ball offensively which will translate to a ton of points. The Bucs defense isn't going to stop the Falcons as they have the 31st worst passing defense in the NFL and are 22nd against the run. Tampa Bay should do some scoring of their own too as they have the 5th fastest paced offense in the NFL and let's face it the Falcons defense isn't great. Atlanta ranks 17th against the pass this season and 31st against the run. Both teams are in the bottom 11 in the NFL in defensive yards per point. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in total offense and considering this number is sitting just a few points above average we'll bet OVER!
|12-17-17||Titans v. 49ers -1||Top||23-25||Win||100||15 h 21 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We faded this overrated Tennessee team last week and cashed in and we’ll do it again here. The Titans are the most overrated team in the league. They are 8-5 on the year but have been outgained and outscored on the season. Last week @ Arizona they lost 12-7 and the offense stunk again. The Titans put up barely 200 yards of total offense and QB Mariota was bad again throwing 2 interceptions. The Titans are 3-4 on the road this year and Mariota has thrown just 3 TD’s to go along with 11 picks away from home on the season. This is also their 4th road game in 5 weeks and they have already lost @ Miami and @ Arizona and squeaked by @ Indy and in OT @ Cleveland. This Niner franchise now has some life with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. They have won back to back road games @ Chicago and @ Houston and they outgained those two teams by a combined 350 yards. Garoppolo has thrown for over 600 yards in those two games. Now they are back at home and confident. The SF defense has been solid vs the rush this year allowing 3.9 YPC which is 7th in the NFL and if you can slow down Tennessee’s rushing attack you have them right where you want them. That forces Mariota to carry the load and he hasn’t been able to do that this season. Things that make you go hmmm…There is a reason the 3-10 team is a favorite over the 8-5 team. The Niners are the better team right now and we’ll take them at home.
|12-17-17||Dolphins v. Bills OVER 39||Top||16-24||Win||100||2 h 14 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39 Points - Miami @ Buffalo, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET
This number is set too low in our opinion. Most likely an overreaction to the Indy – Buffalo game last weekend that ended 13-7 but was played in blizzard like conditions. This week the weather looks fine with temps in the 20’s but very little wind which is key. Also no precipitation in the forecast. It may also be set too low based on a Miami defense that shut down New England on Monday Night holding the Pats to 20 points. However, that effort does not a great defense make. If you look back at the recent performance of the Miami defense it’s been very poor. Throw out their game vs Denver as the Broncos can’t score on anyone right now, and this defense has allowed 35, 30, 45, 27, 40 and 28 points in their previous 6 leading into their games vs Denver and New England. Buffalo’s offense hasn’t put up a ton of points recently but they’ve been facing solid defenses over the last 5 weeks with the exception of Indy and again that was played in a blizzard. Tyrod Taylor gets the start here and we expect the Bills to look much better offensively. Miami is simply a better offense with Cutler at the helm. They’ve now scored 20 or more in 7 of their last 9 games. The Fins put up 27 on a New England defense last Monday that hadn’t allowed any of their previous 8 opponents to top 17 points. This AFC East rivalry has been high scoring as of late with the last 4 games totaling 65, 53, 50, and 55 points. These two have not had a total set in the 30’s since the 2010 season. We take the OVER here.
|12-16-17||Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5||Top||13-30||Win||100||26 h 54 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points - LA Chargers @ Kansas City, Saturday at 8:25 PM ET - AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR
This one is essentially a battle for the AFC West Division Title. They are tied atop the division with 7-6 records. KC won the first game @ LA so a win here by the Chiefs would all but lock up the division. A Charger win would make the last two weeks very interesting. These teams know each other very well and this will be a playoff atmosphere. We think that favors the defenses. The Charger defense has been simply lights out as of late. Over their last 9 games this defense has allowed just 14 PPG. Because of that defense, the Chargers have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games. The KC defense has been up and down this season but at home, they’ve been very solid allowing just 18 PPG. They have not allowed a single opponent to top 20 points this year here at Arrowhead Stadium. Offensively, the Chiefs have gone in the tank during their 8 game freefall in which they have a 2-6 record. If you take out their two games vs Oakland, who ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, this KC offense has averaged just 18 PPG over their 8 game swoon. Taking KC UNDER at home has been a definite money maker. They are 45-24-2 to the UNDER in home games since 2009. That’s the highest percentage of UNDERS for a home team in the NFL during that stretch. These two put up just 34 points in their first meeting (24-10 Chiefs win) with neither team topping 330 total yards. 14 of the last 20 meetings between these two here in Kansas City have failed to top 45 points. We like the UNDER.
|12-16-17||Bears v. Lions OVER 44||Top||10-20||Loss||-105||22 h 3 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points - Chicago @ Detroit, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - NFC North Total of the Month
These two met in Chicago back in October and the Lions won 27-24 totaling 51 points. It could have been worse as the two combined for 38 in the first half alone before slowing down to just 13 in the 2nd stanza. Both offenses were on point with the Bears rolling up 398 yards including 222 on the ground. The Lions put up 352 yards with 299 coming from Stafford through the air. That was really Chicago’s best offensive performance since Trubisky took over at QB. That was until last week when the Bears put up 33 points and Trubisky had 271 yards passing on a very solid Cincy defense. Facing a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in total defense and YPP defense, we expect the Chicago offense to look good again for the 2nd straight week. Detroit topped Tampa 24-21 last week but the Lions rolled offensively with over 430 yards of total offense so their scoring numbers (24) probably should have been even higher. They rank 5th in the NFL at 26 PPG and the Lions have scored at least 20 points in every game but 2 this year and those games were against two of the top defenses in the NFL (Minnesota & Pittsburgh). At home in the controlled climate they have been even better scoring at least 20 points in 11 of their last 13 dating back to last season. Detroit will score here and Chicago looks like they’ve turned the corner offensively and had earlier success vs this defense as well. 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two here in Detroit have reached at least 44 points. This one does as well. Take the OVER.
|12-16-17||Oregon -7 v. Boise State||Top||28-38||Loss||-105||24 h 17 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #205
|12-10-17||Titans v. Cardinals +3||Top||7-12||Win||100||18 h 21 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Titans just might be the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 8-4 yet have been outscored AND outgained on the season. Last week at home they got down 10-0 to a struggling Houston team and though they fought back to take the lead, the Texans were driving late for the winning score and threw a pick. Tennessee, with under 1:00 minute left and running out the clock, picked up a late covering 75 yard TD run to win 24-13. A very deceiving final score. The Titans have been outscored by 65 points in their last 5 road games with their only wins coming @ Cleveland 12-9 in OT and @ Indy 20-16. QB Marcus Mariota has struggled all season but especially on the road where he has thrown only 3 TD passes to go along with 9 interceptions. Because of Mariota’s struggles the Titans really need their running game to thrive in order for their offense to have a chance. That will be tough here as the Cards rank 9th overall in rush defense allowing 99 YPG and 6th in YPC defense (3.7). Arizona is off a home loss to the Rams but the Cards had more yardage in that game. A week earlier they beat a very good Jacksonville team here. This will be Arizona’s third straight home game while Tennessee is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. While the Cards have a 5-7 record and Titans are 8-4, the seasonal yardage numbers for these two teams are almost identical (Tennessee minus 4 YPG on the season / Arizona minus 2 YPG on the season). Arizona is 21-11-1 ATS (65%) as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season. We like Arizona to win this game outright and we’ll gladly take the points here.
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons +2||Top||17-20||Win||100||30 h 3 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +2 over New Orleans, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET
Falcons have to win this game after losing here vs Minnesota last Sunday 14-9. Interestingly, the Birds were favored by 2 or 3 vs Minnesota and now vs Saints just 4 days later they are +2. Value with Atlanta here. The Falcons are on the fringe of the wild card and 2 full games behind the Saints in the NFC South. New Orleans is off a huge home win over Carolina which has them sitting great in the NFC South with basically a 2 game lead over both Carolina & Atlanta as they now own the tie breaker over the Panthers. After being held to just 9 points and under 300 total yards vs what we feel is the best defense in the NFL, we look for the Falcons to play MUCH better offensively in this one. They have topped 30 points in 4 of their last 6 meetings with New Orleans. Also the Saints defense, which looked really good through the middle of their schedule but did so facing a number of poor offenses (Chicago, Buffalo, Miami, TB, and Green Bay – without Rodgers) has now come back to earth a bit. They have allowed 31, 26, and 21 points their last 3. The Falcon offense will rebound here and we like the way this Atlanta defense is playing right now allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Atlanta continues to be the best statistical team in the NFL with a yards per play differential of +1.0 which is tops in the league. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in this rivalry and the Falcons have covered 13 of their last 17 when getting points at home. Just an absolute must win for a solid home team and we’ll take the Birds.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5||Top||23-20||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30PM ET - In this big rivalry game we expect the defenses to dominate and predict a lower scoring game. Earlier when these two teams squared off the number Vegas put up was 40 and they combined for 43 points as the Steelers won 29-14. The Bengals offense was stymied by the Steelers defense all game long, managing just 179 yards of total offense (league average 335YPG). Pittsburgh gave the Bengals a heavy dose of RB Bell in that game who rushed 35 times for 134 yards and there's no reason to expect a different game plan here, especially with WR Brown potentially not playing. The Steelers rank 7th in total yards per game but are 12th in scoring which tells us they move the ball well between the 20's but it doesn't translate to TD's. In fact, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage offense at 46.51%. Despite a poor overall record the Bengals defense has been quite good this year if you look inside the numbers. Cincinnati, is 14th overall in yards allowed per game but 10th in points allowed at just 19.5PPG. The Bengals offense is the worst in the NFL when it comes to yards per game at just 274.3YPG and 25th in scoring at 18.1PPG. Pittsburgh is 4th in the league in points allowed per game at 17.5PPG, 3rd in yards allowed per game at 289.4YPG. Historically speaking, 3 of the last four meetings have all stayed below the number. Pittsburgh's road games this year have resulted in 37, 35, 32, 35, 40 and 39 total points as a result of them being the dominate team and dictating much of the tempo. Play low scoring close games and win away from home! BET HERE IS UNDER!
|12-03-17||Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46||Top||10-24||Loss||-105||9 h 48 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 points - Philadelphia @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET
We see this game playing out very similar to the Seahawks most recent home game which was a 34-31 loss to Atlanta. The Seahawks defense is a shell of what it used to be with key injuries in the defensive backfield. We don’t expect them to slow down an Eagle offense that has put up more than 30 points in 6 of their last 7 games and the one time they didn’t top 30 during that stretch they scored 28 on a Carolina defense that currently ranks 2nd in the NFL. Seattle is the type of team that can play in a grinder game vs poor offenses like Arizona & San Francisco and win a low scoring type game. However, when they play a high scoring type offense, this team seems to change their tune. They know they must keep up on the scoreboard and Russell Wilson comes out flinging the ball all over the field as they have very little running game. Examples include their game 2 weeks ago here vs Atlanta (similar type explosive offense to Philly) in which they totaled 65 points and a few weeks before that in a game here vs Houston (with Watson at QB) in a game that had 79 points. Seattle won’t shut down this red hot Philly offense. This will be one of those keep up type games for the offense. They have showed they can get it done, especially at home where they have scored 31 or more in 3 of their last 4 games. When looking at totals in Seattle, weather is always a key. The forecast calls for 42 degrees, no rain, and almost no wind tonight (3 to 5 MPH). Perfect conditions. We like this one to fly OVER the total.
|12-03-17||Chiefs v. Jets +3.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||25 h 53 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH!
We were on the Jets last week and feel we had the right side. Carolina was favored by 6 and won by 8 but were very fortunate to do so. The Jets actually outgained the Panthers by nearly 100 yards but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s in the 4th quarter (fumble return & punt return) and even with that were down by just 5 in the final minute. The way the game timed out the Panthers were forced to kick a FG with 20 seconds left as they were not able to run the clock out. NY was impressive offensively putting up 27 points and nearly 400 yards vs one of the top defenses in the NFL (Panthers are 2nd in NFL in total defense). QB McCown has been surprisingly good this year including over 300 yards vs the Panthers last week and we actually would take him over KC QB Smith who has been bad over the last month plus. The Jets offense should be solid again this week vs a KC defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. The Chiefs, on the other hand, simply can’t score anymore. Last week they faced a Buffalo defense that had allowed a whopping 135 points over their previous 3 games and Alex Smith and company were only able to put up 10 points and lost at home. Buffalo had been outgained in 9 straight games before putting up more yards than KC last Sunday. The Chiefs have now lost 5 of their last 6 games with their one win coming by a single point and have scored 17, 9, and 10 points over their last 3. The Jets are 3-3 at home and their 3 losses have come vs 3 of the better teams in the NFL (New England, Carolina, and Atlanta) and all were one score games. KC doesn’t rate anywhere near those teams right now yet they are still laying points here. We like the Jets to win this game outright.
|12-03-17||Bucs v. Packers -2.5||Top||20-26||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
The Packers last home game was a debacle as they lost 23-0 to Baltimore. They will absolutely want to atone for that performance and they picked up some momentum last week @ Pittsburgh. Although a loss, they took one of the best teams in the NFL, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL to the wire in a 31-28 win. After throwing up an egg at home the previous week, the GB offense played much better against one of the top defensive units in the league. QB Brett Hundley threw for 245 yards and 3 TD’s in his best performance yet. Now after facing two of the best defense teams on back to back weeks, we expect the offense to look good again as they take a big step down facing a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL in both YPG defense (395 YPG) and YPP defense (6.1). Tampa goes back to Jameis Winston at QB here and we actually think that is a negative for their offense. The Bucs were able to win 2 of their last 3 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, albeit vs the Jets and Dolphins, but he had them playing OK on that side of the ball. Winston has a bad shoulder and was simply poor losing 5 straight before he went on the shelf for a few weeks. We don’t think he magically starts to perform well here. Tampa is just 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Miami in a game the Bucs were outgained by 130 yards. They have been a terrible road team in general winning just 16 of their last 53 away from home. Green Bay should have a spark here coming off a solid performance. They also receive word that Aaron Rodgers has a chance to come back in a few weeks and with games vs Tampa and Cleveland the next two weeks, this team could push themselves right back into the playoff race. Packers are the side here.
|12-02-17||Miami-FL +10 v. CLEMSON||Top||3-38||Loss||-115||29 h 56 m||Show|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #325