|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Clippers v. Spurs OVER 221.5||Top||103-95||Loss||-106||7 h 56 m||Show|
ASA play on: OVER 221.5 L.A. Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET – The value with this bet is obvious as they just met a few weeks back and Vegas had a total set of 226 on the game. That contest finished with 233 total points scored and this game will be similar. In their last five games the Clippers defense has allowed 118.4PPG with opponents making nearly 48% of their FG attempts. L.A. is the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA and will look to push the tempo here. San Antonio doesn’t play as fast as the Clippers but they are much more efficient offensively averaging 1.130 points per possession (6th best in NBA). Surprisingly, the Spurs are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings as are the Clippers. Two of the three meetings this season have gone Over the Total as have 5 of the last six. Bet OVER the total here.
|01-18-19||Heat +1.5 v. Pistons||Top||93-98||Loss||-109||9 h 12 m||Show|
ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!
|01-14-19||Blazers v. Kings -2.5||Top||107-115||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.
|01-13-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 217||Top||113-116||Loss||-109||8 h 24 m||Show|
UNDER 217 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET – Our math model projects less than 210 total points in this game and we couldn’t agree more. On the season these two teams are both slower than league averages with Portland ranking as the 13th slowest paced team in the league, Denver is the 4th slowest. In their most recent five games the Blazers have slowed to the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.8 possessions per game while the Nuggets are the 2nd slowest at 96.5 possessions. Last year when these two teams squared off in Denver they produced totals of just 170 and 205. The Blazers defense has been solid their last five games with the 7th best defensive efficiency numbers (1.066PPP) over that span of games. On the season the Nuggets are a top 10 defensive efficiency unit allowing just 1.078PPP, and they are better at home allowing just 1.049PPP. The Nugs are coming off a game last night in Phoenix and when they’ve played without rest this season their games have stayed below the number 5 of six times. Portland has played in two straight higher scoring games but they came at home against bad defenses. Different story here…BET UNDER!
|01-12-19||Spurs v. Thunder -5||Top||112-122||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.
|01-11-19||Bucks v. Wizards OVER 226||Top||106-113||Loss||-110||2 h 52 m||Show|
ASA NBA play on: OVER 226 Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET – We’ll first address, Giannis and the fact that he’s resting tonight. We’ve seen this a million times in our handicapping careers and other players relish the opportunity and will step up in his absence. The Bucks are deep team with four other players other than the Greek Freak averaging 12 or more points and 8 other scoring more than 5PPG. Milwaukee is the 3rd ranked offensive efficiency unit in the league averaging 1.137 points per possession. In their last five games with John Wall out of the lineup, the Wiz have been better in terms of OEFF averaging 1.128PPP. Washington seems to have better ball movement without Wall and players have a more defined role offensively. Most importantly, the Wiz are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA this season with an average of 101.6 possessions per game. The Bucks also like to play up-tempo with the 5th fastest paced offensive at 102.8 possessions per game. Both teams have shot it extremely well in their last five contests with the Bucks averaging over 51% as a team while the Wizards have shot over 47% as a team their last five. In their last five games the Bucks and their foes have averaged 231 total points. Washington has averaged 225 in their last five. We will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference game.
|01-08-19||Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 229||Top||119-117||Loss||-108||5 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10Star play on: #509/510 UNDER 228.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – We will take the value and bet UNDER in tonight’s contest. Vegas was high on the opening number of 223.5 but it didn’t stop the bettors from pushing this line up with 71% of the money flowing in on the Over. These two teams met just a few weeks ago and the number was 221.5 so you can see for yourself we are getting 7-full points of value from that O/U. Minnesota won that previous meeting 114-112 with both teams shooting over 47.8% from the field. That number is higher than their season averages of 45.2%. The Thunder are the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing just 1.023 points per possession. The Wolves are 16th or league average allowing 1.101PPP. The T’Wolves are slightly above average in offensive efficiency at 1.106 points per possession while the Thunder are 20th at 1.079PPP. Nine of the last ten meetings between these two teams have ended with less points scored than tonight’s number and based on the efficiency numbers we should see a game with around 219 total points. Bet UNDER!
|01-05-19||Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 225.5||Top||123-116||Loss||-113||9 h 22 m||Show|
ASA play on: UNDER 225.5 Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:35PM ET
These are both top 10 teams in terms of defensive efficiency ratings as the Bucks (3rd) allow just 1.041 points per possession while the Raptors give up just 1.076PPP. Sticking with the defensive theme here the Bucks have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency FG percentage at 50% while the Raptors are 8th at 50.8%. We also love the scheduling dynamics here with the Raptors coming off a loss a few nights ago where they gave up 125 to San Antonio so expect a much better effort on the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks meanwhile are coming off a game last night versus the Hawks where they put up 144 points so don’t expect a repeat performance from that anomaly. Milwaukee and their opponents have averaged 216 total points per game when the Bucks played the previous night. The Bucks have faced some bad defenses lately in the Knicks, Hawks and Nets so this will be a different level of intensity against the Raptors. When these two teams last met on December 9th they combined for just 203 total points. We expect a very similar game to that last encounter and predict just 210 total points. The Under is 6-2 the last eight meetings between these foes on this court. Bet UNDER.
|01-04-19||Mavs +5.5 v. Celtics||Top||93-114||Loss||-109||5 h 36 m||Show|
ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.
|01-02-19||Pistons v. Grizzlies -6||Top||101-94||Loss||-110||4 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.
|12-30-18||Bulls v. Raptors -10||Top||89-95||Loss||-115||5 h 58 m||Show|
ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border.
|12-29-18||Spurs v. Clippers -3.5||Top||122-111||Loss||-105||12 h 53 m||Show|
ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight.
|12-28-18||Nets v. Hornets -4.5||Top||87-100||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings. The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.
|12-27-18||Lakers +4.5 v. Kings||Top||116-117||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.
|12-26-18||Wolves -4 v. Bulls||Top||119-94||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th. Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP. It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight.
|12-19-18||Cavs v. Hornets -13||Top||99-110||Loss||-109||5 h 41 m||Show|
ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.
|12-18-18||Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 209||Top||118-126||Loss||-110||6 h 3 m||Show|
ASA play UNDER 209 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – With scoring up in the NBA this season it’s hard to bet an Under with a number as low as this one, but our predictive analytics say there is still value here. Based on current pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers we are predicting a Total here of 199. The Nuggets are without three of their top five scorers this season as Will Barton (16.5PPG), Gary Harris (16.6PPG) and Paul Millsap(13.6PPG) are all injured. That’s a lot of points that need to come from somewhere else. Denver is coming off a very low scoring game against the Raptors (181 total points) and we see that style of play continuing here. The Nuggets are 5th in DEFF ratings allowing just 1.050 points per possession. Dallas is nearly as good, ranking 9th overall in DEFF allowing only 1.074PPP. The Mavs are coming off a horrible defense showing versus the Kings, but prior to that game had allowed an average of just 97PPP their previous four games. Denver is the 4th slowest team in the league while Dallas has slowed considerably in their last five games. In the two meetings on this floor last year these two teams produced totals of 180 and 207, both Under wins, which will be the case again tonight.
|12-17-18||Blazers v. Clippers OVER 217.5||Top||131-127||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
ASA Play OVER 217.5 Portland Trailblazers @ L.A. Clippers, 10:30PM ET – We like to put ourselves on the same side as the oddsmakers which means the Over is the call here. What we mean by that is simple. This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams with the most recent being November 25th. The O/U number on the first meeting was 225 and then 227 just a few weeks ago. Both ended up staying Under the Totals, but the first game finished with 221 total points (enough for a win here) and the second ended with just 204 BUT both teams shot horribly. In the game a few weeks ago, in Portland, the Clippers shot just 42.2% on 90 FG attempts, while the Blazers shot 42 of 97 or 43.5%. The Blazers are 14th in the NBA in team field goal percentage at 45.6% while the Clippers are 9th at 46.6%, so both shot well below their season averages in the last meeting. These two teams are both 10th or higher in offensive efficiency, the Clippers are 9th in pace while the Blazers are 19th. Neither is great defensively either with Portland checking in with the 17th worst defensive efficiency numbers, the Clippers are 19th. The Clippers are coming off a lower scoring game against the Thunder but OKC is one of the slowest paced and best defensive teams in the NBA. Portland isn’t! We are literally getting 10-points of value from the last Total on these two teams’ game AND it’s lower than the league average. The bet here is OVER the Total.
|12-16-18||Kings +5.5 v. Mavs||Top||120-113||Win||101||7 h 43 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.
|12-15-18||Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder||Top||104-110||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.
|12-13-18||Lakers v. Rockets -5||Top||111-126||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.
|12-12-18||Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 217.5||Top||97-113||Win||100||2 h 16 m||Show|
ASA Under 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET – The number our math model has come up on this game is 213 and we agree. This game features the 3rd (Indiana) and 4th (Milwaukee) best defensive efficiency units in the NBA and the number is only slightly lower than the league average. In their last five games both teams have turned up the defensive intensity even more as the Bucks allow just 1.005 points per possession while the Pacers allow .968PPP. The Pacers have allowed an average of just 97.8PPG their last five game, the Bucks have allowed 104.8PPG. Milwaukee has also struggled with their shooting in their last five games as they’ve averaged just 43.9% from the field which is drastically less than the 47.8% season average. Indiana averages less than 100 possessions per game at home this season and they’ll dictate tempo here. The Under is 5-2 the L7 meetings. Bet UNDER!
|12-05-18||Clippers v. Grizzlies -120||Top||86-96||Win||100||4 h 22 m||Show|
#518 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies ML bet over LA Clippers, 8PM ET - Plenty of reasons to back the Grizzlies here at home with quick revenge (lost to Clips Nov 23rd by 5 in OT) and coming off a loss. Since their loss to the Clippers the Grizzlies have gone on a 1-4 run after a 12-5 start to the season. Expect them to get back on track tonight. Memphis is 7-3 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of +5.2PPG and that schedule includes 5 playoff teams from a year ago. The LA Clippers have won 5 of their last six games and coming off a very satisfying upset in New Orleans on Monday night. The Clippers are 7-6 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those seven wins came against playoff teams from a season ago. L.A. has shot exceptionally well their last five games at 49% but expect that to change versus a Memphis D that allows opponents to hit just 45% of their attempts, 11th best in the league. The Grizzlies also have the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the league which is much better than the Clippers 16th ranked DEFF. Grizzlies rested and looking to improve their 6-0 spread run when playing with two or more days off. Great spot to back Memphis!
|12-03-18||Cavs v. Nets OVER 210.5||Top||99-97||Loss||-105||3 h 45 m||Show|
ASA play OVER 210.5 Cavaliers @ Nets, 7:35PM ET - Our math model projects 216 total points and we couldn’t agree more. Let’s not forget what the rule changes have done to the NBA right now as scoring is up dramatically at 221PPG. Last year on this date the average total points scored in the league was 211. Granted these are two of the worst teams in the league but they are also two of the worst defensively. The Cavs are dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions at 1.148 while the Nets are 23rd allowing 1.116PPP. Cleveland is coming off three very low scoring games against OKC, Boston and Toronto but those are three of the best defensive teams in the league. With PG George Hill back in the lineup expect the Cavs scoring numbers to go up. Brooklyn’s home games have averaged nearly 230 total points per contest and we expect both teams to score here. Bet OVER!
|11-29-18||Warriors +9 v. Raptors||Top||128-131||Win||100||4 h 2 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!
|11-28-18||Wizards v. Pelicans -6||Top||104-125||Win||100||2 h 19 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.
|11-20-18||Blazers v. Knicks UNDER 220.5||Top||118-114||Loss||-105||5 h 39 m||Show|
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ NY Knicks, 7:30PM ET - Some solid indicators here with the money and tickets chasing the Over, yet the line dipped 2 full points from the opener. Based on the pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers this game should result in 215 total points. Portland is average in pace of play or 15th in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game. New York is slower yet at 100 possessions per game which will continue to trend lower with Coach Fizdale running the show. Portland is one of the best DEFF teams in the league while the Knicks are one of the worst. The same can be said about the OEFF numbers as Portland is top 10 in the league, Knicks bottom 10. New York shoots under 43% at home this year and averages 106PPG. Portland has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Bucks and won’t be interested in playing an up-and-down game tonight and look to rest starters as much as possible. Last year when these two teams met they combined for 198 and 194 total points. The bet here is UNDER!
|11-19-18||Thunder -2.5 v. Kings||Top||113-117||Loss||-101||6 h 58 m||Show|
ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.
|11-08-18||Bucks v. Warriors -5.5||Top||134-111||Loss||-108||6 h 17 m||Show|
Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland. They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014.
|06-08-18||Warriors -4 v. Cavs||Top||108-85||Win||100||4 h 1 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them. It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*. BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
|06-06-18||Warriors v. Cavs +4||Top||110-102||Loss||-103||5 h 9 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game. The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points.
|06-03-18||Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215||Top||103-122||Loss||-108||7 h 26 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 215, Cleveland @ Golden State, Sunday at 8 PM ET
We cashed with the OVER in game 1 of this series but it took overtime to get there. After watching game 1, tonight we’re siding with the UNDER. The two teams combined to shoot a very solid 47% in game 1 yet the game had to go to OT to cash the OVER. LeBron is playing exceptionally well but can we expect him to get to 50+ again and miss only 13 of 32 shots again tonight? The odds on that happening are not very good. Even with his fantastic effort and 51 points, again, if it doesn’t go to OT it stays UNDER. As good as Golden State can be offensively, it’s actually been their defense that has carried them in these playoffs. They held Houston, one of the top scoring offenses in the NBA, to 92, 94, 86, and 92 points the final four games of the Western Conference Finals. In their 18 playoff games, the Warriors have allowed more than 106 points just 3 times (in regulation). 11 of those 18 have gone UNDER the total. Steve Kerr was not happy with the way this team played defense in game 1 and you can bet that was stressed heading into this match up. Expect GS to play very well on the defensive end tonight. Cleveland’s defense was poor during the regular season but they’ve actually played quite well on that end of the court in the post season. Their final 3 games vs Boston heading into the NBA Finals they limited the Celtics to 96, 99, and 79 points. They’ve limited their opponents to 110 points or fewer in 18 of their 19 playoff games (in regulation). We look for Cleveland to try and slow this pace tonight which gives them the best chance of pulling off the upset. Both defenses will play better tonight and we like the UNDER in this game.
|05-31-18||Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214||Top||114-124||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
We will play on 10-Star OVER 215 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Thursday, May 31st – Cleveland looked better defensively in the Eastern Conference Playoffs but the fact of the matter is they played two average offenses in the Pacers and Celtics. Now they face one of the best offensive units in the NBA which averaged 1.137 point per possession in the regular season, 3rd best in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 109PPG in the post season and that came against three top 14 defensive efficiency units, two of which, Houston and San Antonio, were top 6. Now Golden State goes up against a Cavs D that was 29th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.120PPP. Cleveland had some lower scoring games against the Pacers and Celtics but those are two of the 8 slowest paced teams in the NBA. Against a similar team to the Warriors, Toronto, the Cavs allowed 112, 110, 103 and 93 points with three of the four games ending with 221 or more total points. After a couple low scoring grinders against the Rockets we expect the Warriors offense to explode tonight in Game 1. Golden State home games averaged 217 total points this season while Cleveland road contests averaged 216PPG. Based on league averages, pace of play, eFG percentages, etc…etc…this game should end with 220 or more points. The Warriors have scored 116 or more points against the Cavs in 6 of the last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER the total.
|05-28-18||Warriors v. Rockets +6.5||Top||101-92||Loss||-105||10 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points.
|05-27-18||Cavs v. Celtics -125||Top||87-79||Loss||-125||10 h 28 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (ML) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The home team has clearly had the big advantage in this series and have been the better team in every game. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-25 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-19 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 10-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes three wins over this same Cavs team by 25, 13 and 13 points respectively. As far as home teams in elimination games in the NBA, going back to 2005, the home team has won over 70% of the time. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. Cleveland has shot under 42% in two of the three games in Boston which is understandable considering the Celtics had the 2nd best shooting percentage D in the NBA this season. Boston was also one of the best in the league when it came to defensive efficiency ratings. The public is all over LeBron and the Cavs which makes sense but the money is all over Boston. Even though LBJ will get every call to man in this game we like the resolve of the young Celtics and expect a win by the home team.
|05-26-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212||Top||86-115||Loss||-110||30 h 17 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 212.5 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, Game 6, 9PM ET - With the number creeping this low here we have to step in with a VALUE Over bet on Game 6. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. In Games 4 & 5 these two teams shot horribly and the games ended with just 187 and 192 Total points. The big difference for this game could be injuries as the Warriors could get Andre Iguodala back for this game and the plus/minus differential with him on the floor for GST is drastic. Houston will more than likely be without Chris Paul for this game which isn’t as big a deal offensively but is defensively. Paul has been outstanding defensively in this series. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the eight meetings this season. The value on this number is too good to ignore. In Game 4 at home these two teams had a total of 224. The Warriors have had 14 home games this season where Vegas posted a Total of 215 or lower on them and in nine of those the Warriors had a key player out. Don’t forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year was 212PPG and this game features the two best offenses in the league. BET OVER!
|05-24-18||Warriors -1 v. Rockets||Top||94-98||Loss||-105||28 h 11 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston.
|05-23-18||Cavs v. Celtics +1||Top||83-96||Win||100||27 h 10 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here.
|05-22-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 223.5||Top||95-92||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 224 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - With the number creeping a little lower here we'll step in with an Over bet on Game 4. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. Expect the Rockets to get back to somewhere in the 46% or 51% they shot in the first two games of the series which is much closer to their season average of 46%. The Rockets attempted nearly 42 three's per game in the regular season and will get their attempts up here in this do-or-die situation. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the six meetings this season. Expect more of the same tonight. BET OVER!
|05-21-18||Celtics +7 v. Cavs||Top||102-111||Loss||-105||6 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday.
|05-20-18||Rockets +8 v. Warriors||Top||85-126||Loss||-108||8 h 16 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close.
|05-19-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6||Top||86-116||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points.
|05-16-18||Warriors v. Rockets +1||Top||105-127||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7 less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers. Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss.
|05-15-18||Cavs v. Celtics OVER 203.5||Top||94-107||Loss||-109||6 h 36 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 203.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics, Tuesday 8:30PM ET Game 2 - First off I want to start by saying this: I am not, nor ever been a conspiracy theory guy when it comes to NBA games, but tonight I'm fairly certain LeBron is going to get a ton of calls in his favor. I expect James to make a concentrated effort to get to the hole in Game 2 and he'll be rewarded with calls that he didn't get in Game 1. In the opener the Cavs defense was exactly what we expected it to be but we didn't see their offense struggling to top 20 points in three of the four quarters. The Cavs shot just 36% as a team and were just 4 of 26 from beyond the arc (15.4%). That's significantly lower than their season averages of 36.8% overall on 32 attempts per game which are both top 8 in the NBA. Cleveland put up just 83 points in the opener but had they shot their season averages they would have scored 24 more points from beyond the 3-point line alone. That's enough points to push this game Over the total. When the Cavs played on the road this year those games averaged 219PPG. When Boston was at home those contests averaged 205PPG. We see Boston putting up great offensive numbers again tonight as the Cavs defense (29th in DEFF) hasn't changed. Don't forget the average field goal attempts per game in the NBA this season was 172 and the average points scored was just under 213PPG. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 170 FG attempts so the pace of play was there, but the Cavs just couldn't make shots. That changes tonight and while I won't bet a bad line tonight and trust Cleveland, I will invest in the OVER.
|05-14-18||Warriors v. Rockets -110||Top||119-106||Loss||-110||6 h 37 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (Moneyline bet) -110 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - Tough to go against the Champs in any setting, especially considering they are not underdogs very often, but we'll make an exception tonight in Game 1. We've made a prediction at the start of the Playoffs that Houston would win it all this year and for them to do that they must win Game 1 at home. The Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best home defensive efficiency numbers. The addition of Chris Paul gives them a another super-star caliber player that can take over a game if James Harden struggles as he did a year ago in big playoff moments. Capela has been a defensive force in the playoffs and Eric Gordon scored 20PPG during the regular season versus the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors are loaded and have incredible road numbers and the Hamptons 5 lineup but this is the one spot to fade them. Houston is 25-2 SU their last 27 at home while Golden State is just 10-11 SU their last 21 on the road, 2-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 1 at home!
|05-13-18||Cavs v. Celtics +2||Top||83-108||Win||100||4 h 17 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1.
|05-09-18||76ers v. Celtics +1||Top||112-114||Win||101||3 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk. Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win!
|05-08-18||Jazz v. Rockets OVER 207.5||Top||102-112||Win||100||3 h 4 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 207.5 Game 5 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Tuesday, 8PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. Game 2 saw these two teams combined for 224 (nice over win for us). Games 3 & 4 finished with 205 and 187 total points. After a very low scoring Game 4, with poor shooting by both teams expect a return to the normal tonight. In the eight meetings this season between these two teams, the Rockets have scored 137, 112, 120, 96, 110, 108, 113 and 100 points. In Game 4 the Rockets shot just 42% overall and 26% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages of 45.8% and 36.2%. The Jazz shot even worse in G4 as they hit just 38.6% from the field and 24% from the 3-point line. Three of the four games in this series have stayed Under the Total but they've been near the league average for pace of play which should equate to 213 Total points. The Jazz road games has averaged 207 total per game in the regular season while the Rockets home games have averaged 218 Total points. The Over has now cashed in 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Bet OVER!
|05-05-18||Raptors v. Cavs OVER 216||Top||103-105||Loss||-104||27 h 56 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 216 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Saturday, 8:35PM ET - Neither team shot especially well in Game 1 yet they still managed 210 total points in regulation. At the half of that game they had 117 which put them on pace for 234 total points. They were still scoring in the 3rd when they combined for 52 points. In the fourth though Toronto missed 11 straight field goals to end the game. In Game 2 LeBron went off in the 3rd quarter which propelled the Cavs to a 128-110 win. Both teams shot ridiculously well at 60% for Cleveland and 54% for Toronto and there are indicators that success could continue here. The Over has now cashed in 4 of the last five meetings (232, 261, 218, 225, 238) and the only game that stayed Under, ended with 218 total points (Total was 223). The Raptors are completely mind-(fill in blank) by the Cavs and have no answer for LeBron. James will continue to bully the Raptors and it will only get worse in Cleveland before it gets any better. Expect a high scoring game here. Toronto's offense was 2nd in terms of offensive efficiency this season during the regular season and face a Cavs defense that was 29th in defensive efficiency.
|05-04-18||Rockets v. Jazz OVER 208.5||Top||113-92||Loss||-110||8 h 22 m||Show|
PLAY ON: OVER 208.5 Game 3 Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz , Fri, 10:30PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. Game 2 saw these two teams combined for 224 (nice over win for us). In the six meetings this season between these two teams, the Rockets have scored 137, 112, 120, 96, 110 and 108. After a horrible shooting performance in Game 2 you can bet the Rockets find a rhythm here. Houston shot just 40% overall and a pitiful 27% from beyond the arc in the last game. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages of 45.8% and 36.2%. Granted the Jazz shot better than their season averages but it's safe to say we could see a similar performance back at home in Game 3. In the playoffs the Jazz and their opponents have scored more than tonight's total in 6 of eight games. Utah had the best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season at 1.039 points per possession. In the playoffs they are giving up 1.050PPP. Houston was the #1 offensive efficiency offense in the NBA this season at 1.147PPP and they're even better yet in the post-season at 1.158PPP. In the series against OKC the Jazz totaled 217 and 209 total points in the first two home games of that series. Houston went to Minnesota and they combined for 226 and 219 total points. In this situation the bet here is OVER!
|05-04-18||Warriors v. Pelicans +5||Top||100-119||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points!
|05-03-18||76ers v. Celtics OVER 206||Top||103-108||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Game 2 - Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 8:35PM ET - We like the value with an OVER wager on Game 2. Philly was 4th during the regular season in pace of play at 99.8 possessions per game and have played faster yet in the post-season at 100.5 possessions per game. Philadelphia averaged 110PPG in the reg ssn and are at 114PPG in the PO's. The 76ers offensive efficiency numbers are better in the post season at 1.136 points per possession than they were in the regular season. Boston has seen a drop in their defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they went from allowing 1.039 points per possession (reg ssn) to 1.086PPP in the playoffs. In Game 1 the 76ers went just 5 of 26 (19%) from beyond the arc which is clearly an aberration. On the year the 76ers averaged 30 3-point attempts per game and made 37% of them. Twelve of the Sixers deep attempts were what we would consider 'wide open' too and they missed all of them. Yes, part of the equation is that Boston's defense was great, but the law of averages even out here which means more points for Philly. The 76ers underperformed its expected field-goal percentage based on shot location and defender proximity by a huge margin so look for better results here from them. Boston shot extremely well from beyond the arc but they were also the second best 3-point shooting team in the regular season behind only Golden State. The Over has now cashed in 70% or 7 of the last ten clashes in Boston. BET OVER!
|05-02-18||Jazz v. Rockets OVER 205||Top||116-108||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets, Weds, 8PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. In the three meetings this season between these two teams on this court, the Rockets have scored 110, 120 and 137 points. In the playoffs the Jazz and their opponents have scored more than tonight's total in 5 of seven games. Utah had the best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season at 1.039 points per possession. In the playoffs they are giving up 1.050PPP. Houston was the #1 offensive efficiency offense in the NBA this season at 1.147PPP and they're even better yet in the post-season at 1.158PPP. In home games this season the Rockets have scored 204 or more points in 35 of 45 games. The Rockets and their opponents averaged 218.2PPG this season at home. Utah and their foes averaged 206.9PPG this season when on the road. Utah will play better than they did in the opener and Houston is going to get to 114+. The bet here is OVER!
|05-01-18||Cavs v. Raptors -6.5||Top||113-112||Loss||-107||10 h 59 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto. The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1.
|04-30-18||76ers v. Celtics OVER 205||Top||101-117||Win||100||5 h 30 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - This Total number has dropped as many as 5-points as some Books from the opening line and we like the value with an OVER wager here. When these two teams faced off last in Beantown the oddsmakers posted a Total of 203 on that game which is slightly lower than tonight's number. We know what the young 76ers will want to do here and that's push the ball in transition, force the Celtics to play fast and wear out their starters. Philly was 4th during the regulars season in pace of play at 99.8 possessions per game and have played faster yet in the post-season at 100.5 possessions per game. Philadelphia averaged 110PPG in the reg ssn and are at 114PPG in the PO's. The 76ers offensive efficiency numbers are better in the post season at 1.136 points per possession than they were in the regular season. The Bucks had great success shooting the ball against Boston in the opening series which is alarming for Celtics supporters. Milwaukee shot 50% as a team against the C's defense that held opponents to just 44% during the regular season. That ties into Boston's drop in defensive efficiency numbers as they went from allowing 1.039 points per possession (reg ssn) to 1.086PPP in the playoffs. Season averages and statistics support a game in the 218 range here. BET OVER!
|04-28-18||Pelicans +9 v. Warriors||Top||101-123||Loss||-101||10 h 33 m||Show|
PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs. Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points
|04-27-18||Raptors v. Wizards -110||Top||102-92||Loss||-110||4 h 45 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (ML) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - The situation dictates a play on the Wizard here as they return home off a loss and face elimination. With John Wall on the court the Wizards have been fantastic at home in the post season with a 10-1 SU run, 8-3 ATS. On the season the Wiz are 5-1 SU and ATS at home when coming off a double digit loss. Let's remind you this isn't a typical #1 vs #8 seed matchup in the first round as Washington was a much higher seed late in the season. The home team has now cashed in on 7 of the last eight meetings between these two teams. As we've stated in the past, the Raptors are a team built for winning in the regular season and have historically failed to live up to expectations in the playoffs. In the two previous games of this series the Wizard shot 55% and 46% overall from the field, 44% and 41% from 3. In Game #5 the Wiz shot a horrendous 41% overall and just 19% from beyond the arc. Things return to normal tonight in Washington and this series extends to a seventh game.
|04-25-18||Pacers +6 v. Cavs||Top||95-98||Win||100||2 h 19 m||Show|
PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers +6 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7Pm ET - Except for a blowout win in Game #1 by the Pacers this has been a tightly contested series that has gone down to the wire in three straight games. Has the Cavs defense been great in the post season or has Indiana's offense been bad? The Pacers are getting uncontested shots in this series, but just not making them. Indiana is 13th out of 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage shooting, and if those numbers trend back to normal, the Cavs are in big trouble. It's well documented Cleveland's defense was one of the worst during the regular season so it's not like they've fixed that end of the court in the playoffs. Cleveland had an average point differential at home of just +1.1PPG during the regular season which ranked 18th in the entire league. The only other playoff team that had a worst home differential was Milwaukee. Indiana had the 11th best road differential of -.2PPG and are clearly confident they can win on this court after their blowout win in Game 1. If Victor Oladipo can find his shooting touch in these last few games the Pacers win this series. Take the points.
|04-24-18||Heat v. 76ers OVER 215||Top||91-104||Loss||-105||4 h 25 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 215 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET - The 76ers offense was ridiculously good down the stretch of the regular season and has been even better in the Playoffs. Philly has scored 100+ points in 20 straight games and averaged 116PPG over that stretch. The Sixers have scored 121+ in 4 of their last six games. We expected Miami's defense to be much better in this series, but they've allowed Philly to average 1.157 points per possession which is better than their season average, and the best number in the playoffs. Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in 3-point field goal attempts per game and top 14 in 3-pt makes. Miami has increased their pace of play numbers in their last ten games compared to the regular season too which has driven up their scoring average. In the playoffs the 76ers are the fastest paced team at 100.9 possessions per game, which is faster than their season average of 99.8. The 76ers have forced the Heat to play at their tempo as Miami is tied with Philly in playoff pace of play at 100.9 possessions per game. That's drastically higher than their season average of 95.5. Both teams shot poorly in the previous game but with 2 days rest they'll find their range tonight. Philadelphia forces the tempo and it turns into a very high scoring affair.
|04-24-18||Bucks v. Celtics -2.5||Top||87-92||Win||100||25 h 30 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – We used the Celtics in Game 1 of this series and laid 4-points so why wouldn't we lay a smaller number here. Don't write the Celtics off just because they lost two games in Milwaukee. The Bucks shot extremely well at home which was surprising considering they were up against the number two ranked defensive field goal percentage unit. In Game 3 of this series the Bucks shot over 52% from the field and barely held on to beat Boston by 2. The Bucks defense was horrendous down the stretch of regular this season and hasn't been much better in this series. Milwaukee was 19th on the year in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.101 points per possession and in the post season they rank 11th, out of 16, in that same statistical category. The Celtics have the best DEFF in the NBA and own a huge edge on that end of the court. Milwaukee was 19-22 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.9PPG. The Bucks are just 19-27 SU against current playoff teams with a lost margin of -3.5PPG. Boston has an average winning margin at home this season of +4 and are 19-9 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. Milwaukee won't continue to shoot as well as they have in the previous two games and the C's get a big home win here.
|04-23-18||Rockets -6 v. Wolves||Top||119-100||Win||100||6 h 49 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets -6 @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:00PM ET – Houston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and we like them off a loss (12-6 SU) here. The one glaring stat we see from Game 3 is how well the Wolves shot the 3-ball. Minny was 15 of 27 from beyond the arc which was VERY uncharacteristic as they are a 35.9% (19th) shooting team on the season. In Games #1 and #1 they hit just 27.8% and 34.8%. Not to mention the Rockets were the 6th best team in the NBA this season at defending the 3 (allowed just 35.2%). It's highly unlikely they shoot it as well in this game as they did in Game 3. The Rockers were favored in Minny this year by 7-points and -3.5-points in the two regular season meetings here so don’t be intimidated by the spread. Houston won those two regular season clashes by 18 and 9 points. The Rockets had the best point differential in the NBA on the season at +8.4PPG overall and on the road at +7.5PPG. What’s most amazing about this team is there 34-10 SU record against other playoff teams with a differential of +7.3PPG. The Wolves average home differential of +5.7PPG on the season (8th best in NBA) is decent, but those numbers are inflated against the bad teams. When it comes to playing other playoff teams the Wolves are just 20-25 SU overall with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The Wolves allow foes to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts on their home court which is the 3rd worst number in the NBA and bad news facing the Rockets.
|04-20-18||Raptors v. Wizards OVER 218||Top||103-122||Win||100||4 h 2 m||Show|
PLAY ON: OVER 218 Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - The oddsmakers have clearly adjusted this number up compared to Games 1 & 2 but we still don't feel it's enough. In the opener of this series these two combined for 220 total points on 163 field goal attempts. In Game 2 they totaled 249 points on 173 FGA's. Both teams have shot exceptionally well in the first two games (48% or better) and there is no reason to expect a change. These two teams have combined for 51 plus points in 7 of the eight quarters played in the post season. Toronto averages 212PPG on the road this year while allowing 106PPG. The Wizards averaged 109PPG at home while allowing 105PPG. The Raptors were 3rd overall in defensive efficiency ratings at home this season but slipped to 12th on the road. Washington has now gone Over the Total in 9 of their last thirteen games when coming off a loss so clearly the offense steps up. These two teams average in pace of play, yet this total is set just 6-points higher than the league average scored per game this season, and yet they are 3rd and 14th in offensive efficiency rankings. In the two regular season meetings on this court these two combined for 241 and 197 total points which means 3 of the last four meetings have ended with 220+ points. Easy call OVER!
|04-19-18||Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 214.5||Top||102-119||Win||100||5 h 20 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 214.5 Portland Trailblazers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET - Portland had an off shooting nights in Game 1 by hitting just 38% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc, which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 45% and 37% comparatively. In Game 2 the Blazers shot better at 45.1% overall and 37.5% from distance. They put up 102 points and only attempted 10 free throws. New Orleans is an 'average' defensive team in terms of defensive efficiency, ranking 14th out of 30 teams in the league. The Pelicans have had their way with the Blazers defense scoring 50, then 44 points in the paint in the two games. A large part of that is attributed to Jrue Holiday of the Pels, who seems to get by defenders at will. The best indicators here for a higher scoring game is the number of field goal attempts by both teams. In Game #1 these two teams attempted 184 field goal attempts then 174 in Game 2. Both those numbers are higher than the league average of 172 FGA per game. Portland plays faster on the road than at home and have a worse defensive efficiency ratings. New Orleans is the fastest paced team in the NBA overall and are faster yet at home, with a better offensive efficiency rating. The crowd will be crazy tonight in New Orleans and the Pelicans will feed off of it, while the Blazers will be forced to play faster than normal. The bet here is OVER!
|04-18-18||Jazz +5 v. Thunder||Top||102-95||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – Casual bettors are backing OKC after their Game 1 win but let’s not ignore the whole body of work leading up to this playoff series. Since the All-Star break there haven’t been many teams better in the NBA than Utah. They’ve gone 18-7 since the break, allowing just 96PPG while scoring 106PPG. The Jazz have the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the 7th in FG percentage defense (45%) but they allowed OKC to shoot over 48% in Game 1. Utah also had the best fast break D in the league this year by allowing just 9.7PPG in transition. OKC more than doubled that number with 22 points on the break. The Thunder played very well in the opener and still only won by 8-points in Game 1. Let’s not forget the Jazz ended the regular season on a 15-2 SU run their last 17 road games. Utah was the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA this season so look for them to slow the tempo to a crawl which will make the points a premium. The bet here is UTAH AND THE POINTS!
|04-17-18||Pelicans v. Blazers -6||Top||111-102||Loss||-105||6 h 29 m||Show|
PLAY ON: Portland Trailblazers (-6) over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:35PM ET - This clearly is a do-or-die situation for the Blazers at home down 0-1 in the series. Lose this game and you've wasted 82-regular season games. On the other hand, New Orleans is a little 'fat' off that upset win in Game 1. Portland had an off shooting night in G1 by hitting just 38% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc, which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 45% and 37% comparatively. The Blazers had less turnovers and more rebounds but just didn't make shots. These same two teams met in New Orleans in late March with the Blazers winning by 4-points as a 2-point road favorite. Prior to this home loss, the Blazers had gone 12-2 SU at home their last 14 and 7 of those wins came against other playoff teams. New Orleans has been a very good road team this year with some positive differentials but this just isn't a good situation for them. The Pelicans closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins that look good on paper (won at GST, LAC and beat the Spurs) but given the circumstances it's not as impressive as it looks. The Warriors had nothing to play for, the Clippers were eliminated and San Antonio was resting. Prior to that stretch the Pelicans were just 3-5 SU their last eight away from home against playoff teams. There is only one way to bet this game and it's on Portland.
|04-16-18||Heat v. 76ers OVER 215.5||Top||113-103||Win||100||4 h 3 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON OVER 215.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET - The oddsmakers have adjusted this number up, but we don't feel it's high enough, and will still bet OVER. The 76ers offense has been ridiculously good down the stretch of the regular season and was light's out in the opener. Philly has scored 100+ points in 17 straight games and averaged 119PPG over that stretch. The Sixers have scored 130+ in 3 of their last five games. We expected Miami's defense to be much better in Game 1 than it was and after the way Philly dismantled them we don't expect to see a drastic change in Game 2. The Heat allowed 103.3PPG on the season but in their last ten games that number has risen to 105.4PPG. Their defensive efficiency ratings has gotten worse too. Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in 3-point field goal attempts per game and top 14 in 3-pt makes. Miami has increased their pace of play numbers in their last ten games compared to the regular season too which has driven up their scoring average. We don't feel the 76ers are going to score 130 again tonight, but if they get to a more realistic number of 115 this game goes OVER the total. Over now 6-2 last eight meetings here between these two.
|04-15-18||Pacers v. Cavs OVER 212.5||Top||98-80||Loss||-101||4 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 213 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – There is tremendous value on this number as the last three Totals set on this series had numbers of 220 or more and the first meeting of the season (November) had a O/U of 217. Much has been made of the Cavs lack of defense and the fact they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, only ahead of Phoenix. They’ve said they are going to ‘flip the switch’ in the post season but it doesn’t work that way. Without a rim protector the Cavs were 21st in the NBA in points allowed in the paint while the Pacers were 14th offensively in scoring in the lane. The Cavs win games by outscoring their opponents, so we know exactly what they’ll try to do today. The Cavaliers averaged nearly 111PPG on the season and 1.129 points per possession. Indiana is a little slower and scores a little less and their defensive efficiency rankings is 13th, slightly better than league average. When these two teams met on this court two times this year they combined for 231 and 223 total points. We feel Cleveland sets the tempo here and forces the Pacers to play their style of basketball. That will lead to a high scoring game here. BET OVER!
|04-14-18||Heat +6.5 v. 76ers||Top||103-130||Loss||-105||7 h 8 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat +6.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8M ET - We like the veteran Heat and the points over the upstart Sixers in this matchup. Yes, we know Philly closed the season on a red hot run but the playoffs are a whole different beast. This series was 2-2 during the regular season with the 76ers winning at home by just 2 and 6 points respectively. The Sixers were 52-30 SU this season but only 20-23 SU against other playoff teams with a point differential of just .2PPG. That's hardly a big enough margin to get a cover in this game. Miami was 17-23 SU this year against other playoff teams, but 14-10 against the top 8 teams from the East. The Heat had a positive differential of +1.7PPG against the rest of the contenders from the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia closed the regular season on a 16 game winning streak which has forced this line to be inflated higher than it should be. Especially considering 13 of those sixteen wins came against non-playoff teams. Philly was just 11-10 ATS when laying more than 7-points this season and are now in the unfamiliar role as a large home chalk in a rare playoff appearance. Miami has a few key edges on the floor in the opener with center Whiteside in the middle and no Joel Embiid on the floor for Philly. Whiteside averaged 19PPG in his three meetings with the 76ers this season and D-Wade dialed back the clock in one of the meetings with 27. We like the veteran leadership the Heat have here and won't be surprised if they start this series up 1-0.
|04-11-18||Spurs +4.5 v. Pelicans||Top||98-122||Loss||-110||4 h 36 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs (+4.5) over New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET - With so much on the line for playoff seeding we like the veteran Spurs to get a much needed win here. The Pelicans have made a late season run to qualify for the post season but let's take a closer look. New Orleans beat the Clippers after they were eliminated, a Warriors team that quit playing, Phoenix and Memphis. Prior to that they had lost four straight games against playoff teams (Thunder, Cavs, Blazers and Rockets). The Spurs have done a balancing act between rest and competing down the stretch which has produced a 4-2 SU record their last six. Three of those four wins came against Portland, Houston and OKC. New Orleans has a 23-17 SU record at home this year but their average point differential is under 1PPG. San Antonio has a losing road record this season at 14-26 SU but their average loss margin is just -1.1PPG which would clearly get us a cover here. The Pelicans have a 9-17 SU record this year against the top 8 teams in the West with a negative efficiency differential. The Spurs have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA when they play on the road and we love defensive underdogs. San Antonio would slip to the 8th seed with a loss and despite what Pop and the players say they would love to avoid the Warriors and Rockets in the first round.
|04-10-18||Warriors v. Jazz -7.5||Top||79-119||Win||100||5 h 2 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON Utah Jazz -7.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9M ET - This is an interesting game that has seeding implications in the West. The Jazz can keep their hopes alive for the #3 seed in the West with a win tonight. Utah trails the Blazers by a game for that coveted spot and they meet tomorrow night in the season finale, but they must win tonight. Golden State has other motivations for tonight and that might be to NOT win this game. If the Warriors were to win this game they could end up bumping the Jazz down a few spots in the standing to the 7th seed . Then they'd have to face this DANGEROUS Utah team in the first round and nobody in the West wants this Jazz team right now with how they are playing. The Warriors have had numerous injuries and added rest heading into the post season is a priority. The Jazz are 29-5 SU their last 34 games and have done it with a defensive efficiency rating that is best in the NBA since the All-Star break. It's not like Utah will be intimidated here as they've beaten the Warriors in the last two meetings by 30 and 19 points respectively. The number set by Vegas is clearly higher than it should be as they try to entice Warrior backers. We won't fall for it. Lay the points!
|04-09-18||Thunder -3.5 v. Heat||Top||115-93||Win||100||3 h 60 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) over Miami Heat, 7:35PM ET - At first look the 'value' in the number here seems very attractive with the home underdog but late in the season 'value' becomes less important in particular situations. This is one of those rare cases you can't be tempted by the home underdog given the circumstances. A desperate Thunder takes on a Heat team that has struggled to a 14-15 record since Feb. 1, playing below-.500 basketball for two-plus months. Miami's recent stretch has seen them go 3-2 SU but their three wins came against lottery bound Chicago and Atlanta twice. Oklahoma City is 14-9 SU their last 23 games and it's come against a brutal schedule. All 9 of the Thunder's losses have come against playoff teams. OKC has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +1PPG and are coming off a confidence building win over Houston. The Thunder need to win to get in and can still grab home court in the first round of the playoffs. Granted Miami is a playoff team but they really don't have anything to play for. In fact, the Heat might be better off with a loss here as it would move them to the 7th seed in the East which would mean a first round matchup with the injury depleted Celtics. In their most recent game the Heat gave extended minutes to everyone and seem more intent on staying healthy than winning right now. With Memphis on deck they'll get their morale-boosting win in their next game. Miami home differential of +2.5PPG is barely above league average. The Thunder have beaten the Heat four straight times all by 6 or more points. Take the team with incentive here!
|04-07-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -6||Top||126-120||Loss||-107||6 h 45 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:35PM ET - Let's start with the fact that the Warriors don't really have a lot to play for other than finishing higher than the Raptors in the East if Toronto would make the Finals. In reality I doubt the Warriors are thinking that but they will be focused here after a horrible showing in Indiana in their last game. Coach Kerr blasted them after the game so we should get great effort here. Golden State is 17-4 SU off a loss this season, 8-3 at home. New Orleans is in a tough scheduling spot as they are playing their 2nd night of a back to back and their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have struggled against good competition with a 18-23 SU record and negative efficiency differential. Golden State on the other hand is 25-14 SU against other playoff teams with a huge efficiency differential. Even with a 'down' season by the Warriors recent standards, they have a plus +8-point home differential that is 3rd best in the NBA. Golden State has beaten this team by 8, 15 and 10 points in the three meetings this season. GST has covered 4 of the last five in the series on this court. We will lay the points with the Warriors here.
|04-06-18||Wolves v. Lakers UNDER 221||Top||113-96||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 221 Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Lakers, 10:35PM ET - Let's start with the fact that the Lakers are without three starters and three primary offensive weapons in Thomas, Ball and Ingram. That's a combined average of 41 points per game that is not on the court for LA. The Lakers have played much slower of late which certainly influences our wager on tonight's contest. For the season the Lakers are the 2nd fasted paced team in the NBA at 100.3 possessions per game. In their last five games they are averaging 95.1 possessions per game which is the 4th slowest. And their last five games average is even skewed higher than it should be as two of the five games were OT. Minnesota has recently played much better defense of late as their defensive efficiency numbers in their last five games is 8 spots better than it is for the season. The Wolves are fighting for their playoff lives and will focus on the defensive end of the floor tonight against the depleted Lakers. Against sub .500 teams this season the Wolves have allowed 105.2PPG which is significantly less than the 109.7 they give up to current playoff teams. With public money flowing in on the Over and the number being driven up we like the added value with UNDER!
|04-05-18||Clippers v. Jazz OVER 211||Top||95-117||Win||100||4 h 45 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 211 LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET - This game has HUGE playoff implications as the Clippers need to keep winning to get in while Utah is not locked in yet and fighting for positioning. Utah is 20-22 SU against other playoff teams this season with a negative efficiency differential but those games have averaged 206 total points per game. That number is 5-points higher than their overall numbers against Lottery teams which is important here. On the season the Jazz are average or 15th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.082 points per possession. In their last five games they have the best OEFF in the NBA at 1.153PPP. That's a great recipe tonight against a Clippers team that is 7th overall in OEFF and pace of play on the season. The LA Clippers and non-playoff opponents have averaged 213PPG on the year. Against current playoff bound teams the Clippers and foes averaged 220PPG. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they combined for 238 and 233 total points. The Over has cashed 4 of the last five meetings in Utah. The bet here is OVER!
|04-04-18||76ers v. Pistons +3||Top||115-108||Loss||-105||3 h 54 m||Show|
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Detroit Pistons +3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Detroit Pistons have zero wiggle-room right now as a loss eliminates them from the playoffs but they've vowed to make Milwaukee earn it. Detroit has played some of their best basketball down the stretch by winning 5 straight and 7 of their last eight (8-0 ATS). The Pistons are 6-1 SU since point guard Reggie Jackson (right ankle sprain) returned from injury and their record is 25-15 SU with him in the lineup. On the year the Pistons have a plus +3.7 point home differential and are 8-6 SU at home against Eastern Conference Playoff teams this season. Philadelphia is on a red hot 11 game winning streak but only two of those wins were against +.500 teams and both were at home with Joel Embiid in the lineup. The Sixers are just 9-16 SU against the top 8 teams in the East and 2-11 SU away in that situation. Philly is playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back while the Pistons have been off since Sunday. The 76ers are just 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS when playing without rest and they have a much bigger game on deck Friday against the Cavs who are ahead of them in the standings. Take Detroit!
|04-03-18||Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 221.5||Top||111-107||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 221.5 Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The contrarian play here is Under as public money is on the Over but we like the value and statistics that support Under. This is the 4th and final meeting of the season between these two rivals with the first three meetings all staying Under the number. In the lone clash in OKC these two teams combined for just 199 Total points. In two of the three meeting they also stayed below their average field goal attempts per game and below the league average. Much is made of these two teams offense, but their defenses are what make them what they are. OKC are 10th in defensive efficiency ratings while Golden State is 11th. Both basically allow 1.070 points per possession. The Warriors are coming off two higher scoring games, but they came against the Kings and Suns who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Prior to that they had scored 107 or less in five straight games. In the Thunder’s last six games they have played five that were low scoring by their standards with the highest point total being 213. Both teams have favored the Under when playing with 1 day rest with OKC averaging 210PPG in those games and GST averaging 216PPG. The Under has cashed in 8 of the last nine meetings. It’s and UNDER tonight!
|04-01-18||Bucks v. Nuggets -4||Top||125-128||Loss||-108||10 h 12 m||Show|
ASA’s PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -4 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – These two teams are both playing for the post season but have various levels of urgency. The Bucks are in already and could move up to 7th or even 6th with some help from Miami and Washington. Denver though is fighting for their playoff lives as they are 2 games out of the post season which makes this game dramatically more important for them. The Nuggets have been fantastic at home this year with a 27-10 SU record and a point differential of +6.2PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bucks on the other hand are 18-20 SU away from home with a negative point differential of -1.1PPG. Denver’s last three home wins have all come by 7 or more points and in this do-or-die situation we expect a win by that margin or more. The Bucks are coming off a pair of road wins and playing their 4th straight away from home in a 6-day span. The Nuggets have owned the Bucks here covering 14 of the last eight meetings in Denver. We also like the value here considering the Nuggets were recently favored by -8.5 points against the Pistons. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.
|03-30-18||Pelicans +4 v. Cavs||Top||102-107||Loss||-105||7 h 28 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans (+4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We won't hesitate to take the points and the Pelicans here as the Cavs continue to have the worst spread record in the NBA. On the season the Cavs are just 27-47-1 ATS, 10-25-1 ATS at home. I literally laugh out loud when I hear the talking heads proclaim the Cavs are playing great right and poised to make a run in the Playoffs. It couldn't be further from the truth and it Cleveland ends up with a first round series with Washington they not make it out of the opening series. The Cavs have won 7 of their last ten games but only 2 of those wins came against Playoff bound teams and both were at home. On the season the Cavs are just 17-20 SU versus current playoff teams, 4-11 SU against the top 8 teams from the West. The Cavaliers efficiency differentials in those 15 games is horrendous. Cleveland's defense is the problem as they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, only the Suns are worse. The Pelicans are in desperation mode here as they only lead the 9th place Clippers by 2 games in the Western Conf playoff race. New Orleans is 23-14 ATS on the road this season and have been rock solid against the best teams in the East with a 10-5 SU record versus the top 8 teams. The Pelicans road point differential at plus .4PPG is nearly as good as Cleveland's home differential of +.8. Easy call here to take NO plus the points.
|03-28-18||Cavs v. Hornets OVER 225||Top||118-105||Loss||-107||5 h 40 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 225 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET – Look for the Cavaliers to turn the thorough bread horses loose tonight after a ‘grinder’ last night in Miami. That made sense considering the Heat are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA and 8th best in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Cavs face a Charlotte team that is average in terms of DEFF and 8th in pace of play. The Hornets have nothing to play for which translates to very little defense and uptempo offense. Offensively the Bugs have put up 111, 140, 102 and 137 points in their last four games. Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, wait, let me rephrase that. The Cavs are second to last in defensive efficiency ratings, only Phoenix is worse! Cleveland makes up for it though with an offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. After scoring 120+ in four straight games the Cavs managed just 79 last night in Miami. The Cavs have gone OVER the total in 5 of their last six when coming off a loss and this series has played OVER in 4 straight in Charlotte. The number is higher than normal for a reason. BET OVER!
|03-27-18||Nuggets v. Raptors -8.5||Top||110-114||Loss||-105||5 h 46 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Toronto -8.5 over Denver, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET
The situation clearly favors Toronto here as: 1) They catch the Nuggets off a game last night and are rested themselves. 2) Denver's leading scorer Gary Harris is out. 3) Toronto is coming off a RARE home loss to the Clippers in their previous game. If we look inside the numbers we find that Denver is just 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back, which gets magnified without their best player. Toronto off a loss have been fantastic with a 15-4 SU overall record, 8-0 SU at home. When the Raptors are playing at home off a home loss they are 4-0 and those four wins came by an average of 20PPG. Toronto has the best home court point differential in the NBA at +10.3PPG with a 30-7 SU record. Denver has not been a great road team all season long with a 13-24 SU road record and a minus point differential of -3.7PPG. The Raptors are still playing for something as they want the second best overall record in the NBA in case they would meet Golden State in the Finals they would have home court advantage. This one won't be close, lay the points!
|03-25-18||Knicks v. Wizards OVER 217||Top||101-97||Loss||-102||6 h 35 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 217 NY Knicks @ Washington Wizards, 6PM ET – This number is set a little higher than league average, but we expect them to score plenty of points to push this OVER the Total. These two teams met a little over a month ago and combined to score 231 total points. In January they totaled 224 so you can see for yourself the reoccurring trend going on. In the Knicks last nine road contests they’ve allowed 111 or more points seven times and those games have given up an average of 118PPG. New York allows foes to hit 48% of their field goal attempts when away from home which plays right into the Wizards hands as they shoot over 48% at home. Washington averages 108PPG at home on the year and will be anxious to score here against this Knicks defense that is one of the 10 worst in defensive efficiency ratings. The Wizards average 1.099 points per possession on offense which is 9th best in the NBA. New York will score here too as they’ve topped 110+ points in 3 of their last five games. The OVER is now 5-1 the last six meetings between these two Eastern Conference rivals. BET OVER!
|03-23-18||Clippers v. Pacers -3||Top||104-109||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers (-3) over LA Clippers, 7PM ET - We like the home team Pacers here and don't expect this game to be close. Indiana is coming off a really poor shooting night on the road Wednesday in New Orleans, but look for that to change on their home court where they shoot 48% on the year. The Pacers have a +3.2 point differential at home on the year and have covered 5 straight home games as a favorite. Also, the Pacers have cashed in 10 of their last fourteen as a small favorite of less than -3.5 points. The LA Clippers are in a tough stretch here with just 1 win in their last five games which came in their most recent game in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Prior to that the Clippers had lost three straight road contests. Both teams have plenty to play for here as Indiana is fighting for home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Clippers are fighting just to get in. But in the end, Indiana is 24-13 SU at home and has several matchup advantages over the Clippers that should lead to a double digit win here.
|03-22-18||76ers -8 v. Magic||Top||118-98||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Obviously we are laying a premium price here but it's still the only way to bet this game. Orlando is fighting for the #1 pick in the draft while the Sixers are fighting for the 4th spot in the East which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Magic are 21-50 and just two games "behind" Memphis and Phoenix for the worst overall record in the NBA. Orlando has lost 7 of their last eight games, including two straight at home by 9 to the short-handed Celtics, and by 7 to the Raptors. Philly has won 4 straight games with three of the four coming by 8 or more points. Orlando has the 8th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -4.7PPG. Conversely, the 76ers have the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at plus +2.6PPG. In the two meetings earlier this season the 76ers won by 11 and 19. Effort will be the difference in this game and it will lead to a double digit win by the visitor. Take Philadelphia!
|03-20-18||Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 209||Top||99-100||Win||100||4 h 4 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 209 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - Our Math Model predicts 206 Total points on this game which is not drastically lower than tonight's line but it's a start in the right direction. Let's first address that the Thunder are off a game against the Raptors on Sunday in which they totaled 257 points. OKC scored 132 but when you look closer you see anomalies, not normality. The Thunder shot 56% as a team overall and nearly 48% from beyond the arc (10 of 21). Both of those numbers are drastically higher than their season average of 45% overall FG percentage and 35% from 3. Expect a return to normal tonight against the league's most efficient defense of the Celtics that allows just 1.037 points per possession. Boston gives up just 100.4PPG at home on the year. OKC is also a top 10 defensive efficiency team (9th) allowing just 1.07PPP. The Celtics are also missing their leading scorer and playmaker in Kyrie Irving and second leading scorer Jaylen Brown (14.1PPG). In their last four games, excluding OT, the Celtics have averaged just 96PPG offensively. With playoff implications for both teams on the line this shapes up to be a defensive struggle. BET UNDER!
|03-19-18||Hornets v. 76ers -8.5||Top||94-108||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Several teams can't afford to relax these days and one of them is the 76ers. Philadelphia is in a tightly contested five-way battle for the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, where just 3 1/2 games separate the current third-place Cleveland Cavaliers from the eighth-place Miami Heat. Of course the big reward is home court advantage if they can finish 4th or higher. This is clearly a bad match-up for the Hornets as they've lost to the Sixers twice this season by double-digits in both games. Charlotte is clearly a team that has cashed it in this season evidenced by their box scores where they are giving extended minutes to bench players. The Hornets have just two wins in their last nine games (3 covers) and those came against the Hawks and Suns who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Philly is coming off a close win over Brooklyn which serve as a wake-up call for tonight. The 76ers have an average home point differential of +6.3PPG this season. Charlotte allows teams to hit 48% of their field goal attempts on the road this year while Philly shoots 47% at home. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS their last nine at home versus teams with losing records and while we know we are laying a premium number here, we still feel it won't matter. Take the 76ers!
|03-08-18||Nets v. Hornets -6.5||Top||125-111||Loss||-113||6 h 11 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) over Brooklyn Nets, Thurs 7PM ET - The scheduling clearly favors the home team here as Brooklyn is playing their 5th straight road game, three of which were just on the West Coast with the most recent coming against the Warriors. Now just 2 days later they are back on the East Coast to face the Hornets. Charlotte meanwhile is off 4 straight losses after winning five straight. The Hornets recent losing streak though comes against a few of the best teams in the East (76ers twice, Celtics and Raptors) which the Nets are not. Charlotte sits 6 games out of the 8th and final spot in the East and have to make a run starting tonight to have a shot at the post season. Brooklyn on the other hand is in the ‘tankathon’ with the rest of the bottom-feeders in the East as they jockey for the best Lottery position. Charlotte has beaten three similar teams to the Nets at home (prior to the loss to the Sixers) by 15, 16 and 15 over this same Nets team. The Hornets are 5-2 SU their last seven at home and the two losses came to Philly and Toronto. Brooklyn has the 8th worst average road point differential of minus 6PPG. Charlotte is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a home loss. Those four wins came by an average of 11PPG. Lay the points with the home team here!
|03-07-18||Cavs +3 v. Nuggets||Top||113-108||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3) over Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET - If you haven’t figured LeBron out yet then we’ll give you the abbreviated version. When motivated he can be absolutely incredible. One of the best athletes to ever play in the NBA along with Shag and Wilt. The downside is that he lacks the mental fortitude to ever be considered the GOAT and lacks the killer instinct the true greats had. But for our wager today we expect to have an engaged LeBron which is a good thing. The Cavs just lost at home to the Nuggets where LBJ scored 25 points, grabbed 10 boards and dished out 15 assists. Denver shot a ridiculous 19 of 35 from deep or 54% from beyond the arc which was drastically better than their 36.6% on the season. Since the monster trade the Cavs have been better defensively so expect a concentrated effort on that end of the floor this evening. Cleveland is 15-15 SU on the road this year and one of only 9 teams in the NBA with a positive road point differential. Denver just 4-8 ATS this season when playing without rest, 1-4 SU/ATS when playing without rest at home dating back to 2015. Cavs on 80% or 8-2 spread run as a road dog this season. Take Cleveland here.
|03-05-18||Suns v. Heat UNDER 218.5||Top||103-125||Loss||-102||5 h 44 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON Under 218.5 Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat, 7:35PM ET - We will play UNDER in this game as our Math Model predicts 210 points in this contest. Contrasting styles here as the Suns want to play fast (100.1 possessions per game) 27th fastest, while the Heat want to play slow (95.2PPP) 4th slowest. The home team sets the tempo here and have one of the league's best defenses allowing just 1.066 points per possession which is 7th best in the NBA. Miami was recently embarrassed at home by the Lakers who are a similar team to the Suns so expect a much better effort tonight. Miami also has a much bigger game on deck tomorrow night against the Wizards and they've gone UNDER in 8 of 10 games this season on the first night of back-to-backs. Makes sense right, conserve energy in Game 1 so you maximize your starters effort on the second night. While the Suns have not been good defensively all season long, they have held their last five opponents to 43.7% shooting which is solid. Phoenix has also stayed Under the total now in 5 of their last six away from home. Easy call here with UNDER!
|03-02-18||Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 208||Top||108-116||Loss||-105||6 h 0 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: #817/818 UNDER 208 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz, 10:35PM - Our predictive analytics and math model project just 203 Total points in this game and we couldn't agree more with the numbers. Minnesota is short handed here after losing Jimmy Butler to a knee injury and are playing the second night of a back-to-back so scoring could be tough. Minnesota has typically averaged less points per game when playing without rest. Scoring against the Jazz has been tough for everyone in the NBA as they allow just 1.059 points per possession which is 5th best in the league. The Jazz have held 9 straight opponents to 100 points or less and have scored 97 or less in three straight. In their last five games the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 94.8 possessions per game and the 3rd worst offensive efficiency rating. Minnesota has NOT been good defensively all season long with the 26th ranked DEFF numbers overall, BUT in their last five games they are giving up just 1.102PPP which is 15th. In the two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 207 and 197 total points. The Under is now 4-1 the last five meetings.
|02-23-18||Mavs v. Lakers -4||Top||102-124||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
ASA play on: LA Lakers -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:30PM ET - We like the Lakers here by double-digits over the visiting Mavericks. Dallas has a huge black cloud over their franchise with Mark Cuban's recent comments about tanking and issues in the front office with a rumored bad work environment for women. Now we know this shouldn't effect play on the court but it certainly is a distraction for coaches and players. The Lakers on the other hand have some positives working for them with the return of Lonzo Ball and the new addition of Isaiah Thomas. This is also a quick revenge game for LA as they were recently beaten in Dallas by 7-points as a 3-point dog. The Lakers have lost 3 straight but all three were on the road. Now the Lakers are back home were they just beat OKC by 25 and Phoenix by 19. The Mavs are just 7-21 SU on the road this season, 1-7 SU their last eight with four of those losses coming by 7 or more points. The Mavs have the 8th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Lakers 8-0 ATS home streak gets stretched to 8 after tonight.
|02-22-18||Thunder v. Kings UNDER 214.5||Top||110-107||Loss||-103||6 h 19 m||Show|
#559/560 ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 214 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET - Our math model suggests juts 206 total points in this contest and we couldn't agree more. On the year these two teams rank in the bottom ten in the NBA when it comes to pace of play and in their last five games each they've played slower yet. Coming off the break we expect the defenses to have a little more energy here and scoring will be tough to come by. The Kings are going to have a hard time scoring regardless as they rank LAST in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings (just 1.035 points per possession) and Thunder have the 7th most efficient defense in the NBA (allow just 1.065PPP). Now granted, the Kings don't have a great defense but as we mentioned earlier the Thunder don't play fast so expect them to score their season average of 107PPG. When OKC is on the road this season their games average 211PPG. At home the Kings games have averaged 207PPG. In two meetings this season these two have combined for 180 and 184 total points. It won't be that low tonight but they won't score more than 207 either. BET UNDER!
|02-15-18||Nuggets v. Bucks UNDER 213.5||Top||134-123||Loss||-104||4 h 52 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 214 Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - Since the coaching change in Milwaukee, the Bucks have played some outstanding defense, ranking 3rd overall in defensive efficiency ratings their past 5 games. The Bucks have allowed less than 1-point per possession in that span. In their last five games the Bucks have played very deliberately with the 2nd slowest paced offense in the NBA. The Nuggets are coming off several games against faster paced teams including the Suns, Rockets, Hornets and Warriors which were all higher scoring games. Those results have given us the added value in the line today to make this Under wager. Since the firing of J-Kidd in Milwaukee no home game has finished with more points than tonight's Total. The bet here is UNDER!
|02-14-18||Clippers v. Celtics -4.5||Top||129-119||Loss||-108||3 h 28 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -4.5 over LA Clippers, 8PM ET – We love this situation with Boston coming off not one, but two home losses with the most recent being a blowout on National TV. They will rebound here with a max effort prior to the All-Star Break. Boston was just crushed at home by their rivals the Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points which is significant as they are 4-0 SU & ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season. The Celts are 21-10 SU at home with an average differential of +4.5PPG which is 11th best in the NBA. The difference here is defense as these two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but defensively the Celtics are far superior with the best DEFF in the NBA while the Clippers are 15th. L.A. has a losing road record and an average differential of -1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. The Clippers have also played an ‘average’ road schedule and now step up against one of the best teams in the league, in a bad mood. In their last three road games the Clippers got a big win over the Pistons and their former teammate Blake Griffin, then lost at Philly by 14 as a 5-point dog, then won at Brooklyn by 13. Great spot to play on a motivated ‘A’ level team off a loss against a ‘B’ level team off a road win. Lay the points!
|02-13-18||Heat v. Raptors OVER 205||Top||112-115||Win||100||3 h 49 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 206 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - Our math models suggests Over here and we couldn't agree more. The Raptors are the 4th most efficient offense at home and score the 4th most points in the league on their home court at 112.7PPG. Miami is coming off a low scoring game against the Bucks but have allowed 109, 111 and 111 the three previous games. That's a great recipe for a high scoring game given they are going up against one of the highest scoring offenses in the NBA. The Heat have the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the season but in their last five games they are 21st. The Raptors have had some monster offensive games lately with 123, 113, 111, 130, 119 and 123 point outputs in 6 of their last ten. A big reason for that success is their depth as the bench has played outstanding when the regulars are off the floor. Vegas has set a number on this game that is 6 or 7 points below the league average and yet the numbers say it will be right around that 212 mark. Bet the value and OVER here!
|02-12-18||Pelicans v. Pistons UNDER 221.5||Top||118-103||Win||100||3 h 47 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: #703/704 UNDER 221.5 New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - Our predictive analytics suggest just 212 total points in this contest and we agree with the math model. These same two teams just met a little over a month ago and Vegas had set a number of 211 on that game so you can see for yourself the value in tonight's number. Detroit is the home team here and they'll have a bigger influence on the pace of play which will be slower than normal for the Pelicans. The Pistons are the 20th slowest paced team in the NBA. New Orleans has the 11th best offensive efficiency numbers while Detroit is 17th. The Pistons are 10th in the league in defensive efficiency while New Orleans is 22nd. The Pelicans have averaged 217PPG on the road this year while the Pistons have averaged 208PPG at home. Detroit just gave up 118 points to a bad Hawks team and will tighten up their defense tonight. New Orleans is coming off a very high scoring OT game against a fast paced Nets team so expect a slower tempo out of them tonight. Easy call here with UNDER the Total.
|02-11-18||Jazz +3 v. Blazers||Top||115-96||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+3) over Portland Trailblazers, 9PM ET – Two hot teams square off tonight and the bet here is on the underdog. While the Blazers have won 9 of their last fourteen games it’s not as impressive as you might think. Of those nine wins only two came against good teams, Minnesota and Indiana. Utah on the other hand has won 8 straight and has some solid wins at New Orleans, at San Antonio, home against Golden State and at Toronto. Portland is 16-10 SU at home this year, but their home point differential is 16th in the NBA (average) at +2.5PPG. On the year the Jazz have an average point differential of -3.2PPG but they’ve had a ton of injuries early in the season. Portland was recently a home favorite of 3-points against Charlotte who isn’t nearly as good as this Jazz team. Utah has covered 6 in a row on the road against teams with winning home records and don’t be surprised when they win this game outright.
|02-10-18||Wizards -6 v. Bulls||Top||101-90||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: #507 Washington Wizards (-6) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - This is a great spot to play on a good team off a couple losses (Washington) versus a bad team off an upset win as a dog (Chicago). Washington has won 5 straight games prior to a pair of losses to the Celtics and 76ers in their most recent two games. Included in that 5 game run the Wiz had road victories by 9 over Indiana, 17 over Orlando and 25 over Atlanta. The Bulls are very comparable to those three teams (worse than Indiana). Prior to last night's upset win over the T'Wolves, the Bulls had lost 7 in a row overall, and 3 in a row at home. Chicago has the 6th worst home point differential in the NBA at home this year and a negative differential of -9PPG their last five. Bulls just 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) when playing without rest this season and are forced to sit Zach Lavine tonight on the second day of a back to back.The Wiz have covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings.
|02-09-18||Hornets v. Jazz -5.5||Top||94-106||Win||100||6 h 37 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: #816 Utah Jazz (-6) over Charlotte Hornets, 9PM ET – We’ve faded the Hornets two games in a row successfully and will play against them here too. Charlotte is in a tough scheduling situation as they played in Denver (higher altitude) on Monday, Portland last night which was OT and are now back in the thin air of Utah tonight. Not too mention, the Jazz are RED HOT right now having won 7 straight games and five of those wins came against current playoff caliber teams. Yes, the Jazz just traded away Rodney Hood but he was coming off the bench and it’s not like they lose a starter. Utah has found a rhythm offensively as they’ve put up 120 or more in 4 of their last five games and their two most recent wins came by 30 over the Warriors and 12 versus the Clippers. Three Hornets starters logged 39+ minutes last night so fatigue will certainly be a factor tonight for Charlotte. Charlotte is just 3-6 SU and ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this season. Utah is also playing with revenge as they recently lost in Charlotte. Utah has a +19.8PPG differential in their last five games which is the best number in the NBA over that 5-game span. It all adds up to a double-digit win by Utah tonight. Easy call here.
|02-06-18||Bucks v. Knicks +1.5||Top||103-89||Loss||-110||4 h 4 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON: #506 NY KNICKS (+1.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35PM ET - There is some tremendous value in this number as these same two teams just met a few nights ago in Milwaukee where the Bucks were favored by -4.5 points. The natural swing here should have the Knicks as a 4-point home favorite yet they are tabbed the dog here. The Knicks lost in Milwaukee by 2 points in a game they executed poorly down the stretch and should have won that game outright. They then came home and suffered a 'hangover' loss to the Hawks. New York is 16-10 SU at home and have the 10th best home differential in the NBA at +4.9PPG. The Bucks have played well since the firing of head coach Jason Kidd and are off a road win over Brooklyn. Milwaukee lost backup PG Dellavedova to an injury in that game and Giannis Antetokounmpo twisted his ankle for the second time in the past five games. The Greek Freak is expected to play tonight but certainly won't be 100%. NY has covered 5 straight when coming off a ATS loss, while Bucks just 2-6 ATS their last eight on the road off a win. Take the Knicks with revenge.
|02-05-18||Hornets v. Nuggets -5||Top||104-121||Win||100||6 h 41 m||Show|
ASA #710 Denver Nuggets -5.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 10PM ET - We don't have a problem laying points with a Denver team at home, facing an un-rested Hornets team . Granted, the Hornets have won 3 straight and 6 of their last ten but look at who those wins have come against (Phoenix, Indiana at home and at Atlanta). In other words we're really not impressed with Charlotte's current 'success' if you want to call it that. Denver on the other hand is 5 -2 SU their last seven games which included impressive wins over Portland, OKC and Golden State. The Nuggets two losses came against the Spurs and Celtics. Denver is 21-7 SU at home this season with an average differential of plus +6.1PPG. Charlotte is just 3-5 SU when playing the second day of a back to back and are stuck in the higher altitude of Denver which is a problem when playing without rest. Denver gets a double-digit home win here.