|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-17-18||Bills +3.5 v. Browns||19-17||Win||100||27 h 42 m||Show|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo +3.5 over Cleveland, Friday at 7:30 PM ET on NFL Network
Taking teams that lose in week 1 of the pre-season vs teams that won in week 1 has been a long time solid strategy. Those teams that lose in week 1 are 100-58 ATS vs teams that win in week 1 dating way back to the 1994 season. It’s a logical trend as teams that don’t have a win yet in the pre-season would be more apt to put a higher emphasis on winning the game. That’s the case here with Buffalo losing at home to Carolina last week while Cleveland picked up a win @ the NY Giants. We like the fact that Buffalo actually dominated Carolina statistically despite the loss. The Bills racked up well over 400 total yards on 6.9 yards per play. They put up nearly 100 yards more than Carolina. Their QB’s (Peterman, McCarron, and Allen) were solid completing 25 of their 39 pass attempts for 338 yards. The Bills led 17-7 at half and blew the lead in the 28-23 loss. You can bet they’ve emphasized closing strong after letting Carolina come from behind in the 2nd half last week. After finishing 0-16 last year, the Browns really wanted to get a win in their NFLX opener and they did topping the Giants 20-10. We could see a bit of a letdown here after getting that much wanted win last week. In that game the Browns rushed for only 50 yards on 33 carries (1.5 YPC). The Cleveland defense allowed the Giants to roll up 134 yards rushing on nearly 6 YPC. That tells us the Browns lost the battle up front despite winning the game. Cleveland also had 13 penalties for 141 yards which is a red flag (poorly coached team). Let’s face it, while many expect Cleveland to be improved, the fact is this team has won just ONE game the last two seasons combined. Now they are favored by a full FG plus vs a team that made the playoffs last year. We like Buffalo to get the win here so we’ll grab the points.