|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -2.5||Top||37-31||Loss||-135||76 h 30 m||Show|
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||26-23||Win||100||73 h 55 m||Show|
|01-12-19||Cowboys v. Rams -7||22-30||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
Here is another game where I think the public will be all over the dog. The Rams werent a great team ATS this season, but they were 7-1 at home. The Cowboys were terrible on the road with a 3-5 record and that is counting a lucky comeback against the Giants in the final game. The Rams defense will have their way with Dak and shut Zeke down.
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||13-31||Win||100||27 h 39 m||Show|
I actually think the betting public is on the Colts here. The Chiefs haven't been covering recently and a large part was because of the Hunt situation. I just think Mahomes and company with an extra week will get it done. I know Reid hasn't been great in the playoffs but this is also his first time with a QB like Mahomes. The betting public loved the Colts last week and cashed and will be on them again. I think KC wins easily
|01-05-19||Colts v. Texans||21-7||Loss||-125||6 h 48 m||Show|
I like the Texans here. I think the public love the Colts more because they remember them beating the Texans @ Houston. I just think the Texans will shut down the Colts run game and force Luck with throw 35+ times which means a couple turnovers will likely happen. Texans will make them pay and at this price we aren't covering a number just winning the game
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4||24-10||Loss||-110||89 h 16 m||Show|
I see no interest whatsoever from the Bears in this spot. They already will host a home playoff game next week and it will be against the Vikings. Their main concern will be keeping Trubisky healthy which means a very conservative game plan and I wouldn't be surprised to see him being pulled. Vikings have all the motivation here with a win and their in. I think they roll Chicago
|12-30-18||Browns v. Ravens -6||24-26||Loss||-115||18 h 30 m||Show|
I think the betting public will be all over the Browns here. While, I do love Baker and the Browns next year I just think they are in over their heads here. During this nice run by the Browns they have only played 2 playoff teams and lost both by double digits. Baltimore defense is just nasty as we saw them shut down the Chargers. I think they get to Baker cause some turnovers and control the clock.
|12-30-18||Dolphins v. Bills -3.5||17-42||Win||100||86 h 52 m||Show|
I grabbed this line early and no surprise it has climbed a lot. Buffalo is a team that is still playing very hard evidence last week even though they aren't in the mix for anything. Josh Allen provides a spark for them and their defense at home is flat out nasty. They also for sure have revenge on their minds here as they let one slip away in Miami just a few weeks ago in which they dominated the stats.
|12-30-18||Jaguars v. Texans -6.5||3-20||Win||100||24 h 25 m||Show|
I think the odds makers have made a mistake here in this game. This game still means something for the Texans as they want to win the division. Also at risk is a first round home game which they want so the effort level will be at an all time high. Jags are done plain and simple and I dont think they show up even with Bortles who lead them to a win last week
|12-30-18||Jets +14.5 v. Patriots||3-38||Loss||-130||24 h 17 m||Show|
This is just too many points here for the Patriots especially given the fact that the total is 46. If the Jets can score 14 which I think they will they can cover this number. The Patriots just want to get the game over with a come away with a win. The division is wrapped up. Darnold is playing well for the Jets I still think we get a good effort from them
|12-24-18||Broncos v. Raiders +3||14-27||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
I like the Raiders here tonight to get the job done. This is a unique situation where this could be the last game ever in their stadium that has a very passionate fan base. With that being on everyone's mind I think we get the max effort here. The Raiders are playing tough covering 4 of their last 5 games. With revenge on their mind here from a 1 point loss earlier I think Oakland gets it done tonight.
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||31-38||Win||100||20 h 44 m||Show|
I really like the Seahawks here are can clinch a spot in the playoffs for sure even though they will be in either way. Seattle and Wilson have been a great home dog over the years and in a prime time game you have to take them. Ever since the hunt issue came along the Chiefs haven't covered a game without him and in fact the Chiefs haven't covered since the first week of November. Say what you want about KC being up a lot and teams racking up yards, but this defense doesnt pass the eye test at all. Seattle will control the game with long drives and scores and will win this game
|12-23-18||Bears v. 49ers +4.5||14-9||Loss||-115||98 h 48 m||Show|
Yes, I know the 49ers line has been adjusted here from the previous weeks, but they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. While the Bears have been a surprise this season I think they come in this game with no care in the world after they just won their division for the first time in a while. This is a perfect flat spot for them coming off that hard fought division game vs the Packers with another division game on deck @ Minnesota. I know the Niners will play hard and at this home dog price again will take them
|12-23-18||Jaguars v. Dolphins -4||17-7||Loss||-105||95 h 44 m||Show|
I will take the Dolphins here as I just think odds makers are off on this one. I think last week was a pretty big indication of were the Jags players heads are. They laid an egg to a team that had to sign a 4th QB and he hadn't played in the NFL for quite some time. The Dolphins have been a very good home team and are still in playoff contention. I think they show up against a Jags team that has packed it in
|12-23-18||Texans v. Eagles -2.5||30-32||Loss||-102||95 h 43 m||Show|
Maybe I am a prisoner of the moment here with the Eagles, but this team is clearly better with Foles at QB as a hurt Wentz literally hurt this team by playing. Eagles now have all the motivation in the world here coming off that big win. I know people will say the Texans are motivated but they are basically in the playoffs. They will be without Miller tomorrow which is a huge loss for their running game. Eagles defense is playing well and they have a major home field advantage.
|12-23-18||Packers v. Jets||44-38||Loss||-102||95 h 43 m||Show|
I will admit I took a flyer on this game based on I thought it was a high chance that Rodgers doesn't play. Well, he is playing and thats fine. I got a bad price but do you really want the Packers here who haven't won a road game all season? The Jets could have beat the Texans last week who had a lot of motivation. Why can't they beat an overrated Packer team?
|12-16-18||Patriots v. Steelers +2||10-17||Win||100||100 h 13 m||Show|
All I have heard all week long is everything regarding the Patriots. It seriously has been Patriots this Patriots that. I also think people are forgetting how bad New England has looked on the road this season. I know last week was a weird loss but they got torched by Miami. While Pitt isn't world beaters I get it, but New England isn't the same team we are custom to seeing either. This is the Patriots 4th road game in 5 weeks. They still have their division wrapped up and the Steelers season is on the line. They wont have a problem scoring
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +4||23-26||Win||100||18 h 44 m||Show|
How much interest do the Seahawks really have in this game? They all but locked up a spot in the playoffs and are coming off an hard fought game even though the final score may not indicate that. I just think last weeks results for San Fran transfer over here as they just lost to this Seahawk team a couple weeks ago. That game was also misleading in the fact San Fran put up over 400 yards but the 3 turnovers were the difference.
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||97 h 49 m||Show|
This is just a great spot here to back the Colts. Dallas is coming off a very emotional win in OT against the Eagles giving them the division win. Dallas won't be getting a first round bye so throw that motivation out. Also this game means a ton to Indy as they are fighting for their playoff lives. Indy has won 6 of their last 7 but since Dallas has covered 5 straight and are a public team the squares will be all over them. Luck has an O line that protects and will pick apart an overrated Cowboy secondary
|12-16-18||Lions v. Bills -2.5||13-14||Loss||-110||97 h 49 m||Show|
I like this Bills team here. Last week they dominated the Jets but not in the final score. They have had several misleading game like that over the season. This team is just so much better with Allen at QB. Buffalo has only allowed one team in the last 6 weeks rush for over 100 yards. Lions will struggle in that area with Johnson out. Stafford I also dont trust here going across country now to the cold having to throw it a lot this game. Buffalo will create turnovers and put Detroit away
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants -2.5||17-0||Loss||-115||97 h 48 m||Show|
I will take my chances here with the Giants who believe it or not still have a shot at the playoffs. This team hasn't gave up on the season winning 4 of their last 5 games. The Titans have struggled on the road with a 2-5 record. While the loss of OBJ does hurt in some ways I think its relieve for the Giants as he can be a major distraction if things arent his way from the get go.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +4||14-20||Win||100||70 h 23 m||Show|
I really like the Niners here catching 4. Last weeks result was very misleading as they actually out gained Seattle in that despite losing by double digits. They will also get back Garcon and Goodwin who are their 2 best WR's. Denver had a cupcake game beating a terrible Cincy team who has gave up on the year. Denver lost Sanders their best WR this week and also Harris their best secondary player. I think Niners are a live dog
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||24-27||Win||100||98 h 22 m||Show|
I will roll with the Ravens here. I just think the betting public will still be all over KC, but are failing to realize how important Hunt was to that dynamic offense. The Chiefs clearly missed him last week as they struggled against Oakland. The Chiefs defense isn't great and Jackson now at QB can control the game with his legs. The Ravens number 1 defense is something special and I expect a few turnovers from Mahomes.
|12-09-18||Jets v. Bills -3.5||27-23||Loss||-101||98 h 22 m||Show|
This Bills team has been very undervalued here as of late. This team simply has got a bad rap because they had maybe the worst QB ever in Peterman for several weeks. Well, now they have their rookie QB Allen healthy and are playing well. Darnold is coming back but is he 100% healthy here against a very good defense. I just think Buaffalo is very undervalued
|12-09-18||Patriots v. Dolphins +9||33-34||Win||100||98 h 21 m||Show|
I like Miami here in this division rival game. They have beat the Patriots 4 of the last 5 years. I also think New England has been pretty fortunate on the road. So they had two very lucky covers against the Bills and Jets both who are worse than Miami. The Dolphins will be motivated as they are battling for a wild card spot. I just think the Dolphins D can keep it within double digits here
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers -5.5||20-34||Win||100||98 h 21 m||Show|
To me its been pretty clear that Rodgers hasn't really tried much and got the wish he wanted which was the firing of their coach. Now, I think we see Rodgers give a good effort with him gone. Throw in the fact that the Falcons are just bad and their defense is really bad. This is also a dome/warm weather team playing in some tough conditions. I think Rodgers rallies the rest of the guys and they win easily
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||10 h 35 m||Show|
It’s fair to say that both teams season is on the line tonight. I just really like the spot here for Washington who has had a ton of time of not playing since Thanksgiving. That loss @ Dallas doesn’t look so bad and they were in that game. The Eagles aecondsry isn’t getting any healthier and this team struggles to score more than 20 points. With those two things in a division rivalry I will take the points
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||33-30||Loss||-120||49 h 36 m||Show|
I will take the Steelers here as just a field goal. Pitt was a part of one of the most misleading games of the year last week as they dominated the Broncos every way possible but the scoreboard. They were down 4-0 in turnovers and still had a chance to take the game into OT. While the Chargers are a good football team I think their record is a little inflated because they have played a pretty soft schedule. Also this is a warm weather team traveling north which is a spot I always look for.
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots -4.5||10-24||Win||100||45 h 30 m||Show|
Anytime in December you can lay less than a TD at home with Brady and company you have to take it. With that being said this line does smell a little bit as they know a lot of people will be jumping on board New England here. Odds Makers are saying that the Patriots are only 1 to 1.5 point favorite on a neutral? I'm not buying that.
|12-02-18||Browns +7 v. Texans||13-29||Loss||-140||41 h 56 m||Show|
I'm going to take the Browns here as this team isn't throwing in the towel even though they likely aren't making the playoffs. They have won back to back games now and I believe they match up very well with the Texans.
The Texans were lucky last week IMO as Vrabel made a bad decision to go for it on 4th and 1 on at 3 and get stopped. The next play Houston scores on a 97 yard TD run. That took all the wind out of their sails as a huge momentum shift. I also think this is a different spot here for Houston on a short week and they have the Colts on deck which ultimately will decide the division winner.
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||17-34||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
I will take the Titans here as I think the Texans are simply the luckiest team in the league right now. I won't go through every game but this team could easily be below .500 and for those who have watched them you know what I'm talking about. Yes, they have the revenge angle here, but the Titans are a legit team under Vrabel. I think the Titans defense will create some pressure and turnovers and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright
|11-25-18||Packers v. Vikings -3||17-24||Win||100||77 h 23 m||Show|
I really believe this is the perfect spot to back the Vikings following last weeks game @ Chicago. Odds makers are suggesting that these two teams are even on a neutral field and no way I am buying that. I think the defense on Minnesota really steps up here. Remember earlier in the season this games ended in a tie but the Vikings were 1.5 point favorites saying that then they were 7.5 point at home so this is an extreme discount here
|11-25-18||Dolphins +10 v. Colts||24-27||Win||100||73 h 28 m||Show|
I had the Colts last week as an easy winner, but now odds makers are adjusting way too much here. The Dolphins still have a ton to play for as well as they are fighting for the playoffs. They also are coming off their bye week which only helps. I do this Colts team but the number itself has gotten out of hand.
|11-25-18||Jaguars v. Bills +3||21-24||Win||100||70 h 4 m||Show|
I know this one might be hard to swallow but I really like Buffalo tomorrow. I think the Bills are getting a bad rap here because of the Peterman playing and boy was he awful. Well Josh Allen returns here and remember this Bills team with him won @ the Vikings. I think after the crushing lost last week to Pitt blowing that game the Jags season is over as they are a mess. Bills have the 2nd ranked defense in the league as well
|11-25-18||Giants +6 v. Eagles||22-25||Win||100||23 h 44 m||Show|
Well I know the Giants have only beat the Bucs and Niners off their bye week, but that only gives them confidence to continue this run and make the post season since no one is running away with this division. The Eagles just aren't what everyone thought they would be coming off the Super Bowl win. Their defense especially their secondary has really struggled and that is where I see the Giants exposing them with their play makers. Division game and season on the line this is too many points
|11-25-18||Raiders +12 v. Ravens||17-34||Loss||-125||23 h 44 m||Show|
Let me say I know Oakland is bad. I just think this is way too many points for a Ravens team to be laying who really struggles to score in the 20's. They have only scored more than 24 once in the past 6 weeks. I think can score at least a couple times and keep it within the number here. We saw a Raider team most had written off go on the road and win so they are't throwing in the towel quite yet
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +3||23-16||Loss||-110||13 h 25 m||Show|
I'm going to go with the Lions here on Thanksgiving. I think the Bears are in a very difficult situation here playing a national televised game against the Vikings in a big win. Now they are without their QB here. I think the Lions believe they can still salvage their season evident last weekend beating the Panthers. Lions will miss their RB Johnson dont get me wrong, but I think they have enough to get by facing Chase Daniel now
|11-19-18||Chiefs +4 v. Rams||51-54||Win||100||126 h 9 m||Show|
This line really smells but have to take KC here. I know that since the game was switched to LA it actually didn't go up high enough considering it was 2.5 3 for a neutral field game. KC has the explosive offense here that will tear apart the Rams IMO. The Rams have really struggled here a lot on defense lately. This game feels like a coin flip either way so will gladly take the 4
|11-18-18||Vikings +3 v. Bears||20-25||Loss||-125||102 h 15 m||Show|
Odds makers are telling you that these two teams are the same on a neutral field. I'm just not buying that. The Bears have had a nice season and are winning games I just think they are extremely overrated right now. This Vikings team is a lot healthier now and are coming off their bye week which helps. Lets also be honest about how easy the Bears scheudle has been so far as well. This could be a PK by game time
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-125||20 h 54 m||Show|
This is just too many points to pass up on here with the Eagles. The Saints are now the hottest team in football especially with the blowout last week. While they may be the best team in the league we are getting a huge effort here from the Eagles after a poor showing on national tv against the Cowboys. This game will for sure be a Pro's vs Joe's
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||95 h 54 m||Show|
I think Luck has now answered everyone who has doubted him throughout the season so far. They have won 3 straight and arent getting any respect on their home field. I also think this is a classic let down spot for the Titans here coming off a big monday night win over the Cowboys and last week destroying the Patriots. This is a Titans team not that long ago that lost on the road to Buffalo
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||23-21||Loss||-100||16 h 24 m||Show|
I think the Texans are an overrated football team, but given this situation I have no choice but to take them. They are riding hot here winning 6 straight games and they are also coming off their bye week getting healthier. The Skins are just dismantled with injuries across the board especially on their OL and that is where the Texans will make it tough for Smith all day long. Houston wears them down and pulls away
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks -3||24-27||Push||0||9 h 9 m||Show|
I'm going to take the Seahawks here even though I know both teams are very desperate. The Seahwks have played a lot tougher schedule and their losses have came to @ Bears twice to Rams and the Chargers. All those teams are playoff teams. They actually had a shot in 3 of those 4 to win outright. Packers are 0-4 on the road and just aren't very good outside Rodgers.
|11-12-18||Giants +3.5 v. 49ers||27-23||Win||100||6 h 17 m||Show|
I like the Giants here tonight against the Niners. I think we are seeing an overreaction to the Niners beating the Raiders in a blowout fashion. The Giants are saying all the right things still coming off their bye week about still making the playoffs. While it may not happen I like where their heads are at
|11-11-18||Seahawks +10.5 v. Rams||31-36||Win||100||96 h 51 m||Show|
|11-11-18||Lions +7 v. Bears||22-34||Loss||-115||93 h 33 m||Show|
To me this is the easiest over reaction of the week. Bears are coming off a blowout win in a game they didnt get to 200 total yards. That is about as misleading of a game as you will find in the Pro's The Lions were less underdogs at a better team in the Vikings last week so we are getting a ton of value I feel. This is a big game for both teams and Stafford is the better and proven QB getting a TD is very hard to pass up.
|11-11-18||Redskins v. Bucs -2.5||16-3||Loss||-125||65 h 42 m||Show|
To me there is no choice but to take the Bucs here. They have major cluster injuries on the OL with 3 starters out and possibly 4. I think they realize that their season is surely over now as well. The Bucs D isn't great but they will get pressure now with those OL out for the Skins. Thompson their RB is out so is Richardson their WR with fellow WR Crowder questionable. I just think the Bucs offense will still be able to put up points and the Skins are so limited they cant play catch up here
|11-05-18||Titans +6 v. Cowboys||28-14||Win||100||101 h 22 m||Show|
This is just too many points for Dallas to be laying. Both teams are coming off bye weeks here and are motivated, but how much home field does Dallas really have? We are also seeing an extremely low total here which makes you believe low scoring. I also trust Vrabel here more as a coach over Garrett. The Titans have a great defense and I wouldn't be surprised to see an outright upset here.
|11-04-18||Packers +6 v. Patriots||17-31||Loss||-110||82 h 58 m||Show|
Well we saw a great effort from the Packers last week coming off their bye week. I think we get another one here. I know Dix is gone from their secondary, but normally you dont see the full effects of a trade like that until a few weeks down the road. I also think Rodgers wont have any problem picking apart this Patriot defense which isnt anything special. The Patriots have some injuries all way the across the board which is a concern. Yes, I know New England at home under a full TD is dangerous but give me the more desperate team
|11-04-18||Texans v. Broncos -2.5||19-17||Loss||-110||149 h 43 m||Show|
I got the worst of this line obviously because of the trade that took place with the Broncos sending Thomas to the Texans. I'm honestly still not worried here. I'm not a believer in this Texans team just look at who they have beat in this 5 game winning streak. Colts, Cowboys, Jags, Bills and Dolphins. They were actually very lucky in 3 of those games. I think the Broncos put a max effort here with their bye week next.
|11-04-18||Steelers +3 v. Ravens||23-16||Win||100||70 h 7 m||Show|
The Steelers are starting to play better football here as of late and the Ravens not so much. I just think Pitt has big time revenge on their minds here. Carolina who doesn't have a great offense really put it to the Ravens last week.
Odds makers are saying that right now on a neutral field that these two teams are even and I'm not buying that all. I actually expect this line to drop a lot come Sunday
|11-04-18||Bucs +7 v. Panthers||28-42||Loss||-135||46 h 5 m||Show|
I know people are going to think this is an overreaction to taking the Bucs but I dont see it that way. They clearly are way better with Fitzmagic at QB than Winston. Yes, the Panthers were the right side last week but they were in the underdog role and now they are 7 point favorites against a division rival with a huge Thursday night game on deck? The Bucs can score with anyone and I believe they keep within the 7
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns +9||37-21||Loss||-105||16 h 54 m||Show|
I'm going to take the Browns here. I think the general public will view the coaching situation here as a major let down for Cleveland. I don't see it that way. With the firing of their 2 coaches there will be a lot of emotion which means maximum effort here. This just seems like the ultimate flat spot here for the Chiefs coming off that Denver game. Granted they were nearly the same amount of favorites vs the Broncos at home as they are the Browns on the road. I will take the points here who are 3-1 ATS at home this season
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings +1||30-20||Loss||-122||94 h 10 m||Show|
The Saints burnt me last week and they are getting to much respect here. They were down 17-7 going into the 4th and had a lucky come back in my eyes. They will now play back to back road games which is difficult. I know people will say revenge here, but the Vikings are rolling right now and they can slow down that Saints offense. Minnesota isn't getting the headlines or respect because most are remembering that Bills loss but that game I feel woke them up. Prime time game in a tough place to play I will take the Vikings
|10-28-18||49ers v. Cardinals||15-18||Loss||-123||54 h 31 m||Show|
I like the Niners here to get some revenge here. CJ has looked a lot better as of late and I think he will be eager as he torched AZ but the 5 turnovers cost them the game the first time around. San Fran is just flat out the better team and the Cardinals seem to be in shambles. This offense simply cant do anything. 49ers are a hungry team with revenge I will take them here
|10-28-18||Colts v. Raiders +3||42-28||Loss||-110||53 h 18 m||Show|
This one wont be popular at all but I think everyone is just counting out Oakland when I believe they got rid of some locker room issues. The Colts beat the Bills easily does that mean we should overreact to anything? The Raiders are coming off their bye week so we can agree that the effort will be there. The Raiders just a few weeks ago were favored by 2.5 over a better Browns team than the Colts IMO. Now the Colts are favored by 3? Seems like quite the adjustment here I will take a hungry Raiders team.
|10-28-18||Browns v. Steelers -8||18-33||Win||100||87 h 31 m||Show|
I really like the Steelers here as I feel they will be out for some revenge especially Big Ben. The Steelers dominated the first game but gave up a big lead in large part because of all the turnovers. That simply won't happen this time around as they are pissed about that tie. Yes, the Browns have a different QB now in Mayfield, but I think this season is starting to take it's tole on them already. They have played 3 of their last 4 games in OT. The Steelers won't be looking past this Browns team
|10-28-18||Jets +9 v. Bears||10-24||Loss||-125||86 h 22 m||Show|
Getting nearly double digits with the Jets team seems just crazy. I think both of these teams are pretty similar. The Bears are getting a lot of hyper because of the Mack trade and the defense upgrade. I also think this is a difficult spot for the Bears to bounce back from after completing a hail mary against the Patriots and being tackled at the one yard line. Miami with a back up QB put up over 500 total yards and the Bears defense numbers wise isn't as good as what people make them out to be. I think this will be a tight game
|10-21-18||Saints v. Ravens -2.5||24-23||Loss||-109||72 h 52 m||Show|
So we will have a huge public play I believe here on the Saints here with their offense. I just don't trust them on being away from home against the best defense in the league. Baltimore will also have no problem putting up points on this Saints defense either. I know everyone remembers what happened on Monday night vs the Redskins but that was an emotional game as Brees became the all time passing leader. The Ravens are coming off 3 straight road games so they will be hungry here.
|10-21-18||Texans v. Jaguars -5||20-7||Loss||-110||109 h 48 m||Show|
We are clearly seeing a Jags team that plays very well at home and just terrible on the road. The past two games have been flat out awful but that is creating some value here for us. I would gladly lay -2 with the Jags on a neutral field against the Texans. I'm not putting much stock into the Texans and their 3 game winning streaking beating the Bills, Cowboys and Colts. This team still struggles on offense and a pissed off Jags defense will be hungry after last week. How quick we forget that the Jags handled the Patriots easily on their home field
|10-21-18||Panthers v. Eagles -4.5||21-17||Loss||-112||109 h 48 m||Show|
I really like what I saw from Wentz and the Eagles last Thursday against the Giants. I know the Giants are nothing special but it was still a division game and a desperate team. I think thaat game and the extra time mean a lot here as Wentz is starting to look like his normal self again. I'm not sold on the Carolina team at all who has won all their games at home. Their defense is terrible giving up 6.2 yards per play. Mind you this Carolina team needed a 63 yard field goal at home to bet a bad Giants team and they were coming off a bye
|10-21-18||Vikings -3 v. Jets||37-17||Win||100||109 h 44 m||Show|
This is such a cheap price here considering if these teams would have played several weeks ago Vikings would have easily been 6-7 point favorites on the road here. They are starting to click like everyone thought they would. I'm just not buying the Jets scoring a lot of points the past two games against the Broncos and Colts. The Vikings are the better team all the way around and I believe they control this from the get go
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs -3.5||23-26||Loss||-108||50 h 14 m||Show|
Let's take the Bucs here as I think they are undervalued in this game. They have lost 3 straight games but 2 of those came down to the wire and could have gone either way. The Browns really struggled last week an I think the Mayfield effect is over. Tampa doesn't have a great defense as we all know but the Browns offense isn't world beaters either. Winston leads them to a win and gets back too .500 ball
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||40-43||Push||0||127 h 7 m||Show|
I really like the Patriots here on Sunday night. They will be more than motivated here for several reasons. One is simply they are facing an undefeated team in the Chiefs. Second, is that they want revenge from last season losing at home to them in a ugly game. Patriots are now healthier and with the addition of Gordon, Brady will pick apart that shaky defense the Chiefs have. Mahomes has cooled off a little bit since the first 3 games. When Patriots are this short of price at home you have to take them especially given the situation
|10-14-18||Ravens -2.5 v. Titans||21-0||Win||100||123 h 12 m||Show|
I like the Ravens here to bounce back after losing in OT to the Browns. I think they had a little hang over from beating the Steelers the week before. I know most will look at this game and say its the Ravens 3rd straight road game which is hard don't get me wrong, but the matchup here is in their favor and the 2.5 line is very key. The Titans proved to me last week who they really are losing to the Bills. I think they are very overrated and their offense won't be able to do a lick against this defense.
|10-14-18||Rams v. Broncos +7.5||23-20||Win||100||77 h 11 m||Show|
This one really stood out to me and luckily I grabbed the best of the number. This Rams team is best team in the NFL but this spot here isn't ideal by any means. They played a hard fought road game @ Seattle last week, so 2nd consecutive road game plus it's going to be cold and possible snow. Denver is clearly a team that plays better at home and this is a game they will be up for. I also really like their running game here against the Rams who haven't been as strong as what people might think. Rams also suffered two concussions to Kupp and Cooks and they are questionable. Denver keeps this close
|10-14-18||Cardinals v. Vikings -10||17-27||Push||0||74 h 4 m||Show|
The Cardinals grabbed their first win last week vs San Fran but it wasnt because they tore it up. They benefited from +5 in turnovers which was the factor. The Cardinals barely got over 200 yards against them. Do you see this offense having much success against this Vikings team? I sure don't I also think Minnesota wont take them lightly because they already lost at home as a big favorite once. Vikings jump on them early and roll.
|10-14-18||Bears v. Dolphins +3.5||28-31||Win||100||40 h 38 m||Show|
It looks like you could probably wait and maybe get 4 here closer to kick, but it has crossed the key number for me. I do realize the Dolphins have some injuries to the OL and that is a concern. I just cant ignore the fact though that this look ahead line was Miami -1 and the Bears didn't even play last week. Miami controlled 85% of the game last week @ Cincy before not only losing but not covering either which is creating some value. The Trubisky hyper train is getting too full for me. I will take Miami now at this price
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants +3||34-13||Loss||-110||28 h 3 m||Show|
I get it the Giants haven't looked anything special, but should they really be underdogs here? They just lost on a 63 yard field goal as time expired and the Panthers were coming off a bye. I think this is the ultimate game here for the Giants as a do or die to the season. The effort will sure be there beings how no one has ran away with this division yet.
The Eagles are flat out terrible on defense and I'm not sold by any means with them laying points. Their two wins are against Atlanta and Indy which is nothing worthy of laying 3 against a division rival.
Giants were 3 point dogs just two weeks ago against a much better team in the Saints
|10-07-18||Cowboys v. Texans -3||16-19||Push||0||133 h 36 m||Show|
I really like the Texans here this week facing their in state rival in the Cowboys. They finally got the monkey off their back with an OT win. The Texans have had a rough schedule here with 3 of the first 4 being on the road. In fact they have been in every ball game losing 3 games by a combined 15 points. Dallas is 2-2 with both wins coming at home but they look different on the road and I think they should have lost last week which is keeping this line lower than it should. Dak has no weapons has everyone has talked about. I look for the Texans to thrive off that win last week
|10-07-18||Vikings +3.5 v. Eagles||23-21||Win||100||90 h 24 m||Show|
I think odds makers are making a big mistake here. The Vikings are wanting revenge from last season and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they got it here. Philly just hasn't looked the same so far this season and their offense is banged up. Vikings still have a great defense and can hold them in check. I also love the fact Minnesota is coming off the Thursday game with extra time while Philly is off an OT loss. Vikings are more the desperate team here with revenge on their minds
|10-07-18||Falcons v. Steelers -3||17-41||Win||100||87 h 60 m||Show|
Really like the Steelers here in this spot as it feels like a must win situation. The biggest difference here is that Pitt will have zero problems moving the ball on a Atlanta team that is extremely banged up right now and cant stop anyone. Atlanta coming off 3 straight home games and the game they played on road when healthy was @ Eagles on grass in week 1 and boy did they struggle. Pitt wins easily
|10-07-18||Broncos v. Jets||16-34||Win||100||86 h 10 m||Show|
This is a situational spot play at its finest. The Broncos are coming off a Monday night game against their big time rival in the Chiefs in a game they should have won actually. Now they travel east coast for an early kick against a hungry Jets team. Denver could easily be 0-4 as they escaped week 1 and 2 both at home in the final seconds against the Seahawks and Raiders not exactly great teams. The spot is perfect for the Jets and I believe they get it done
|10-07-18||Packers v. Lions +1||23-31||Win||100||71 h 23 m||Show|
I'm not a believer at in the Packers this season. This team should only have 1 win. I'm also not putting much stock into last week over the Bills. Lions probably should have won last week @ Dallas but they did cover the number. Remember two weeks ago when everyone wrote them off and they blew the doors off New England. The Packers have injuries to the WR position and Rodgers is clearly not 100%. I think Stafford will torch their defense as well. I think the Lions will go off favored here
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||24-38||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
I was on the Patriots last weekend as they blew out the Dolphins. I will back them again here as they are facing a Colts team coming off a heart breaking loss to the Texans. The main reason though is that the Colts have injuries up and down the board. Not being 100% when facing Brady is always a scary situation. Luck still has issues in my mind throwing the deep ball and with no weapons here I think he is in trouble
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +5||27-23||Win||100||82 h 12 m||Show|
Well, we all know who the betting public will be all over here and that is the high powered offense of the Chiefs. In this prime time game @ Denver this is simply too many points. The Denver defense will be all over Mahomes here. I also dont trust the Cheifs defense as they have gave up their fair share of yards so far. I think Denver can really control the clock here with some long drives and keep Mahomes off the field. Not calling for the upset, but I think Denver keeps it very close
|09-30-18||Saints v. Giants +3.5||33-18||Loss||-115||54 h 17 m||Show|
This is a circle the wagons game for the Giants here after winning their first game last weekend. While it may not look that impressive right now beating the Texans the confidence it gave them will be huge. Remember this is the same line the Giants were week 1 against the Jags who are better than the Saints. Also with the Saints coming off that big division win over Atlanta leads to a little let down. Saints defense simply cant be trusted. I think OBJ has a huge game
|09-30-18||Browns v. Raiders -2.5||42-45||Win||100||79 h 58 m||Show|
I was on the Browns last week as a winner as Baker saved the day, but now will fade them even though they have extra time to prepare. The Raiders are a very very desperate football team right now and this is a absolute must win. The Raiders have been in every game so far this season, but the ball hasn't bounced their way yet. With what Baker came in and did was impressive no doubt but I also think this leads the public to their side.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||7-38||Win||100||76 h 54 m||Show|
I think now the betting public will back off the Patriots after what they saw on Monday night football against the Lions. There is no doubt Miami could actually be 0-3 but since they have won and covered every game they are being over hyped. The fact that they haven't blown anyone out besides being +6 in turnovers so far says a lot. The Patriots have owned Miami at their place over the last several seasons and I think they do so again
|09-30-18||Eagles -4 v. Titans||23-26||Loss||-102||76 h 53 m||Show|
The Titans are getting to much respect from last weeks win over the Jags as they caught them in the perfect spot after the Jags beat the Patriots. Titans still have QB issues as neither is 100% healthy. I also like that the Colts got Wentz back but didnt cover even though they should have sine they actually dominated them in yards. Let's be honest in today's game how many teams win a game let alone not get blown out after only passing for 83 yards? Eagles win easily
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||31-38||Push||0||58 h 24 m||Show|
Let's go ahead and grab the Vikings here. These are still the two best teams in the NFC and I think Minnesota was clearly caught looking ahead and before they knew it they couldn't come back. The public based on those results will be all over the Rams since they have covered every game. Mind you the Rams were just favored by this much against a lesser team in the Chargers. Here is the main key and that is the Rams are battling so many injuries. Talib is out for sure and sounds like Peters isn't going to play. They lost other key players as well on that defense and that will be the main difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings bounced back and won
|09-23-18||Cowboys v. Seahawks||13-24||Win||100||90 h 50 m||Show|
Here is one of the classic situations as we have a 0-2 home team giving points. This Seattle team is desperate as they know you simply cant fall to 0-3 as you have a very very slim chance of making the playoffs. Wilson is their leader and I think he steps up in a must win game. Also Dallas looked good on national TV against the Giants and so did their defense but Eli is absolutely terrible right now so how much stock do you put in that. Sounds like Seattle will get some of their starters back and a huge effort will follow
|09-23-18||Saints v. Falcons -3||43-37||Loss||-107||110 h 51 m||Show|
Odds makers are still giving the Saints a lot of respect because so many were extremely high on this team to begin the season. Falcons didn't struggle at all last week in the red zone against a much better defense in the Panthers. The Saints so far lost to the Bucs and should have lost to the Browns last week. Clealry they are thinking a big bounce back, but I'm not sold that the Saints are that good. I like what the Falcons found on offense last week and to keep that going
|09-23-18||Bengals v. Panthers -2.5||21-31||Win||100||110 h 50 m||Show|
I like Carolina here in this spot after losing to the Falcons. They hung in there really tough despite some key injuries. They are now healthier while the Bengals lost a key piece in RB Mixon who I think meant a lot to that team than what people realize. The Panthers have a stout defense and I believe they will hold Cincy in check.
|09-23-18||Packers v. Redskins +3||17-31||Win||100||86 h 25 m||Show|
This is one of those fishy lines that we all know the public will jump all over. I think Washington responds here with a better effort even though last week didn't look very well. The Packers played their you know whats off and ended in a tie with the Vikings. Rodgers is clearly not 100% and I don't think the Packers D is anything special. Also throw in the fact this is their first road game of the season. This has upset written all over it
|09-23-18||49ers +7 v. Chiefs||27-38||Loss||-105||86 h 24 m||Show|
This line to me is the biggest over reaction of the week. The look ahead line was Chiefs -4 and since Mahomes is rolling right now putting up crazy numbers their line is moving up. San Fran last week was a very misleading final as they were up 17 with under 9 minutes left and gave up two TD's to win by 3. San Fran was everyone's darling team this year and now it seems everyone is writing them off since they haven't covered yet. I totally expect Jimmy G to have a field day with a Chiefs secondary I think is suspect at best
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||14-27||Win||100||73 h 4 m||Show|
This is a great spot to fade the Broncos here who are 2-0, but could clearly be 0-2. They beat a down Seahawks team and Raiders in the final seconds. Keenum is going to get ate alive against this nasty Ravens defense. Throw in the fact the Ravens have had extra time here as well. This may seem high but I think the Ravens are legit a top team in the AFC especially.
|09-23-18||Colts +7 v. Eagles||16-20||Win||100||73 h 4 m||Show|
I had the Colts last weekend at the Skins catching a TD and they won out right. Indy was driving week 1 with a chance to score against the Bengals and could easily be 2-0. It goes to show what Luck does mean to this team.
The Eagles so far have had some defensive issues to say the least and Luck and put up the yards. Also I think the fact that Wentz returns this week is inflating this line. I dont think he is 100% healthy and not sure how in sink everyone will be with him.
I will take my chances with the Colts catching a TD
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns -3||17-21||Win||100||45 h 12 m||Show|
This Browns team is could easily be 2-0 if they had a kicker. They took the Steeler down to the wire in week 1 tying the game and lost last week blowing lead against the Saints.
I think the Jets are still getting some respect because of week 1 Monday Night Football against the Lions scoring all those points. The Browns defense is legit and I believe they will cause all sorts of problems for Darnold here. The Browns know this is the game they can win and ultimately will win.
|09-16-18||Giants +3 v. Cowboys||13-20||Loss||-107||82 h 45 m||Show|
Neither one of these teams covered last week but I actually felt the Giants had a real shot at winning the game as the Cowboys were dominated by the Panthers. Dallas was clearly hurting last week as they have a lack of weapon. I also think their defense is up to a bigger task facing a team with a lot more play makers. Giants win this game outright
|09-16-18||Colts +6 v. Redskins||21-9||Win||100||75 h 39 m||Show|
This one here surprises me as the Redskins are getting that much respect for drumming the Cardinals. I'm not high at all on the Cardinals this season this is an overreaction especially since the Skins have some injuries which are their WR's. The Colts blew the game last week in the 4th quarter but really controlled a majority of that game. They also out gained the Bengals by 50 yards.
|09-16-18||Panthers v. Falcons -6||24-31||Win||100||75 h 39 m||Show|
Really like the Falcons here to get the job done. They struggled in the red zone @ Philly but I think that gets cleaned up as the Panthers are hurting on defense right now with some key injuries. They will also miss Olson their TE for a few weeks. Atlanta has had extra time to prepare here since they played on Thursday and that will show. Also I'm not high on the Cowboys this year and Carolina couldn't pull away from them last week
|09-16-18||Dolphins +3 v. Jets||20-12||Win||100||75 h 34 m||Show|
This to me is a bit of a stretch especially after game. The Jets were 6.5 to 7 point underdogs and now they are favored by a field goal at home? That seems like an overreactio. I was impressed with Miami last week as I did have them. They are a much better team with Tannehill running the show. I believe this game is a coin flip so I will take a full field goal
|09-16-18||Chiefs v. Steelers -4||42-37||Loss||-104||74 h 27 m||Show|
The Chiefs were very very impressive last week @ the Chargers. I just think this will easily be the public play of the week based on last weeks results alone. The Steelers couldn't have looked much worse as they had 6 turnovers. When doing that in the NFL you normally lose the game and by a blowout. So yea, it was the Browns but give them credit as they still has a 21-7 lead with 8 minutes left in the game. Big Ben will clean up his act and Pitt responds with a big effort
|09-13-18||Ravens v. Bengals +1||23-34||Win||100||26 h 5 m||Show|
I had the Bengals last week in a winner and will back them again here. I think this team is a playoff team no doubt about it. I also think the betting public will fall in love with the Ravens since they did blow out the Bills who are the worst team in football. I just think they are being underrated here at home in this division game and I will take them catching a point.
|09-09-18||Cowboys v. Panthers -2.5||8-16||Win||100||30 h 12 m||Show|
I'm not high on the Cowboys at all this season. Some might argue they are tired of hearing how bad they will be, but the players they have surrounding Dak just aren't capable. Their WR's are possible the worst in the league and I'm not sure how good that defense will be. I think Carolina isn't getting enough respect here and at 2.5 I will gladly take them
|09-09-18||Jaguars v. Giants +3||Top||20-15||Loss||-105||27 h 56 m||Show|
I love the Giants here this week catching 3 at home. I think this game should be a PK at the very least. Giants are coming off their worst season in a long time, but I think they are due for a huge bounce back. I'm not buying that the Jags can repeat this season and I dont trust Bortles. Giatns have added big time improvment to the offensive line and I love the draft pick of Barkley at RB. I think the Giants win outright tomorrow.
|09-09-18||Titans v. Dolphins +2||20-27||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
This is honestly more of a play against the Titans. I don't think they should be favored. IMO both of these team are 7 or 8 win teams therefore the home team should get a little nod. Tannehill is returning and that is a bright spot or at least a lot better than Cutler. I don't trust the Titans and I think they are a play against this season
|09-09-18||49ers v. Vikings -6.5||16-24||Win||100||27 h 43 m||Show|
So all the hyper and talk is about Jimmy g and company. Sure he hasn't lost as a starter and yes the team played different last year, but some of those late games were meaningless for the Niners. I think the Vikings have the best balanced team in the league on both sides of the ball. The Niners will have zero chance of running the ball against the Minnesota. I like the upgrade with Cousins at QB as he will have something to prove. Minnesota gets up early and San Fran cant play catch up
|09-09-18||Bengals +3 v. Colts||34-23||Win||100||27 h 38 m||Show|
Andrew Luck is really getting some serious respect here in this game. Maybe he does come out and light it on fire, but I will be willing to go against and have him prove me wrong here. Cincy will be an improved team here and I think AJ Green gets back to his normal ways. The Colts still have a lot of questions on defense and with that I will take the points with Cincy