Saints vs. Panthers Free Picks 11/17/16 – Thursday Night Football Odds
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Free Picks 11/17/16. More Free NFL Predictions & Picks from expert handicappers.
Carolina Panthers have looked nothing like the team that played in the Super Bowl last season, and they head into this Thursday Night Football contest with a disappointing 3-6 record. The New Orleans Saints have a losing record for the season as well, heading into Week 11 with a 4-5 record.
There’s however a huge difference between the teams if we compare how they’ve done against the spread. Carolina has successfully covered the spread in just two of its nine games while New Orleans is 6-3 against the spread, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. The over/under split for both teams is 5-4.
The Panthers opened as a 4-point favorite at market setting sportsbooks 5Dimes and Pinnacle, but both the public and the sharps are confident that New Orleans will cover the spread which has forced the line to move. Some books still give 3.5-points on the visitors while other books offer an even field-goal.
The total is set at 52 points, and more than 70 percent of the public bettors believe we’ll see another shootout going over the set total. Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints will be looking to bounce back from an ugly defeat last week. The Broncos denied them three wins in a row as the Saints saw an extra point returned for a defensive two-point conversion with just over a minute to go of the game in a 25-23 setback.
New Orleans had decent success in the air with Drew Brees completing 21 of 29 passes for a total of 303 yards and three touchdowns, but he was also picked off twice and the Saints lost two fumbles which hurt them a lot. Unlucky for the Saints as they defense held Trevor Siemian quiet and stopped the run effectively.
Drew Brees torched Carolina in the first encounter of the season, throwing for 465 yards and four touchdowns before rookie Wil Lutz drilled a 52-yard field goal with just 11 seconds remaining on the clock in a 41-38 win on Oct. 16. The Saints rank 1st the NFL averaging 427.7 yards per game, but their defense is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest.
The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss but 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in November. Over is 8-0 in Saints last eight vs. a team with a losing record.
The Panthers let a 14-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 20-17 loss to Kansas City last week. Cam Newton ignited the collapse as his ill-advised pass was intercepted by Eric Berry and returned 42 yards for a score. Newton, the reigning NFL MVP, had a strong game against the Saints earlier this season with three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing), but that was a rare solid outing from him during a frustrating campaign.
The Panthers average 366.7 total yards per game which ranks them 12th in the NFL while allowing 351.6 yards per game which is 15th in the league.
The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall but 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 5-1 in Panthers last six games following a ATS loss.
Our Prediction: Over 52 Points
That’s just the way the Saints play football, particularly when taking on the Panthers. They have an explosive offense, but the defense leaves plenty to be desired. Both quarterbacks know how to exploit the opposing D, and scores should come often and fast in this contest.