San Diego State vs. Fresno State Football Free Pick October 14, 2016
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs College Football Free Pick Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:00 PM EST. From Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, California.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs College Football Free Pick on who will win this Mountain West division matchup. The 4-1 San Diego State bounced back from their first defeat of the season with a comfortable 26-7 home victory over Nevada-Las Vegas last week while Fresno State is coming off a 27-22 loss to the Nevada Wolfpack to fall to 1-5 on the season.
Fresno State opened as a 16.5-point underdog and you can now get them at +17 with 80 percent of the wagers coming in on San Diego State to move the line. The total has dropped three points from the opener of 55, perhaps due to the fact that five of the last seven meetings have gone under the total. Last season’s meeting saw just a total of 28 points scored in an Aztecs win at San Diego.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs put up some impressive numbers in last week’s win against the Rebels. They outgained their opponent by a total of 338 yards and held UNLV’s starting quarterback Dalton Sneed to just nine yards on 2-for-12 passing with an interception. San Diego State carried the ball well and the nation’s leading rusher, Donnel Pumphrey, ran for 141 yards on 31 carries. He now has 891 yards with nine scores during the current campaign.
The Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in October and 9-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They’re however 0-2-2 ATS in their last four games after allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous game.
Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have lost four straight games but they’re at least 2-2 ATS during that stretch and they’re 1-0-1 ATS home at Bulldog Stadium. The team outgained Nevada by 452 to 389 in total offense last week, with 255 of those yards coming on the ground, but to no avail. Dontel James had a big game with 169 yards on 27 carries. The Bulldogs did cover the 8.5-point spread in the 27-22 loss, but they’ve struggled with consistency and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
Sports Betting Trends
- Under is 24-8-1 in Aztecs last 33 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 9-3 in Aztecs last 12 games in October.
- Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games in October.
- Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Our Lean: Under 52 Points
Our lean for this San Diego State vs. Fresno State Football Free Pick is the under, despite the line already dropping a couple of points.
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