Three Reverse Line Movement NFL Picks – September 18, 2016
Reverse line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages and is a valuable tool for all sports. A reverse line movement occurs when bigger bets are placed on the non-public side of the matchup, something commonly known as sharp money or smart money.
We have identified three games that fit the criteria above on Sunday’s NFL card.
San Francisco 49ers +13 vs. Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM ET Start
The Panthers opened as a two touchdown favorite and a majority of the bettors (close to 60 percent) are confident that Carolina will respond well to last week’s opening loss to Denver. The sharp money disagrees though as we’ve seen the line drop to Carolina -13 as we approach game time. The 49ers shut out the Rams 28-0 on Monday night football and should not be underestimated despite playing on a short week.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns +5.5
1:00 PM ET Start
The Browns will go back to Josh McCown under center for Sunday’s home opener after after losing quarterback Robert Griffin III to a broken bone in his throwing shoulder, but the line has dropped from Baltimore -6.5 to -5.5 despite close to 70 percent of the tickets coming in on the Ravens. The Ravens won without impressing in a 13-7 win against Buffalo in their season opener, and the Browns will have a great chance to cover the spread unless we see massive improvement from Baltimore’s offense.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings +1.5
8:30 PM ET Start
Minnesota will host Green Bay Sunday on Sunday Night Football. The Packers opened as a -3 favorite but are now a mere -1.5 points despite the Vikings uncertainty regarding their QB position. Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill? The sharps don’t seem to care who will start under center and Minnesota looked strong in a 25-16 win at Tennessee last Sunday. Close to 80 percent of the money on Green Bay but the line is moving the other way, something is definitely fishy here and we rate this the strongest RLM play for Sunday.