Three Reverse Line Movement NCAAF Picks – September 24, 2016
Reverse line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages and is a valuable tool for all sports. A reverse line movement occurs when bigger bets are placed on the non-public side of the matchup, something commonly known as sharp money or smart money.
We have identified three games that fit the criteria above on Saturday’s NCAAF card.
Duke +20.5 vs. Notre Dame
3:30 PM EST Start
The betting public absolutely love Notre Dame in this contest with close to 80 percent of the tickets backing the Fighting Irish. Therefor it’s very suspicious to see that they’re now “only” a 20-point favorite despite open as a 21-point favorite. Don’t underestimate the Duke Blue Devils who are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Army vs. Buffalo +14
7:00 PM EST Start
More than 70 percent of the tickets on the Army Black Knights, the line has shifted from Buffalo Bulls +15.5 to +14. Classic case of reverse line movement and the visitors are likely overrated by the public now after starting the season with three consective wins and covering of the spread. Buffalo meanwhile has lost three straight and failed to cover the spread in each game. The books over adjusted the opening line for this contest and the sharps have caught on. There’s still value on the Bulls at this line despite the drop.
Houston vs. Texas State +33.5
7:00 PM EST Start
The Houston Cougars are receiving a lot of love from the public in this contest against Texas State Bobcats on Saturday. More than 70 percent of the bets are on the visitors but the line has moved one point in the opposite direction with Texas State now only getting 33.5 points. Home dogs are always dangerous, and Texas State even more so here in its home opener for the season.