Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick 09/15/15
Toronto Blue Jays (82-61) at Atlanta Braves (56-88)
Turner Field, Atlanta, Georgia
Tuesday, September 15 – 7:10 PM EST
Line: TOR -170 / ATL +165
Over/Under: 8.5 Runs
Our featured free pick Tuesday, September 15 comes from Turner Field where the Atlanta Braves will entertain the Toronto Blue Jays for the opener of a three-game set. The Blue Jays extended their AL East lead to three games ahead of the New York Yankees after taking three of four at Yankee Stadium their last series. The Atlanta Braves meanwhile opened a four-game home-stand by getting swept over four games against the New York Mets and are running the risk at being overtaken by the Phillies to end up at the very bottom of the NL East.
Toronto Blue Jays (82-61)
Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.72 ERA) will take the ball for the Blue Jays coming off 3 1/3 poor innings at Fenway Park where he was torched for five runs on nine hits in the 11-4 loss. His 4.31 ERA over 15 road starts is more than a full run higher than his 2.99 ERA home at Rogers Centre and he’s 0-2 with a 9.45 ERA in his past three on the road.
He’s been dealing with a shoulder issue lately but has had plenty of rest for this contest and will be backed up by the best offense in baseball (790 runs through 143 games). Troy Tulowitzki is out for at least two weeks but Edwin Encarnacion could be back after sitting out Sunday’s 5-0 loss to the Yankees.
The current members of the Blue Jays have a combined batting average of .338 against Teheran with Russell Martin going 4-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Atlanta Braves (56-88)
Julio Teheran (10-7, 4.38) will take the ball for the Braves coming off back-to-back solid outings allowed just a total of two runs over 13 frames. He’s 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts home at Turner Field compared to a 3-5 record behind a 5.57 ERA through 15 road starts.
He’s already faced Toronto once this season when he condeded five runs on seven hits and two walks with four(!) home runs through five innings and might not expect much support from an Atlanta offense that ranks dead last for runs scored this season (517 runs through 144 games).
We can note that the Braves does have a couple of batters with good success against Buehle though; Nick Markakis is batting .449 over 49 plate appearances and A.J. Pierzynksi is 10-for-25.
What’s the Play
I don’t think any other team has made me as much money as the Toronto Blue Jays this season and I’m backing them to win big here. They’re 13-3 in their last 16 games following an off day and a solid 41-30 against the runline on the road. Atlanta meanwhile has covered the runline in just 39 of its 69 home games and has lost 12 consecutive home games straight up.
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)