Troy vs. South Alabama Free Pick 10/20/16 – Football Predictions
A college football prediction and free pick for the game between the Troy Trojans and the South Alabama Jaguars. Watch it live at Thursday night’s ESPNU telecast.
The Troy Trojans are one of the most improved teams in the country this year as they head into this contest with a 5-1 SU record. They’ve covered the spread in four of those games while the over/under is 2-4. The South Alabama Jaguars have split their first six games of the season (2-4 ATS), but straight up wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State as sizable dogs are pretty impressive.
The Trojans opened as an 8.5-point favorite, but are closing in on the double digit mark with close to 70 percent of the wagers coming in on the visitors forcing the books to move the line. There is no total set for the game as of the publication of this Troy vs. South Alabama free pick.
Troy had covered the spread through three consecutive victories before failing to cover the 19.5-point spread in a 31-21 home win over Georgia State on Saturday. The Trojans are still 4-0 ATS in their last four road games but just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
The Trojans have held opponents to 19.7 points per game. They have not really played a whole lot of quality offensive teams, but Clemson was held to 30 points and Southern Miss offense was limited to 421 yards of total offense in a 37-31 win last month.
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama came off a bye last week but still lost 17-7 as a 4.5-point underdog at Arkansas State. They held the opposing QB Justin Hansen to 9-of-13 passing for just 93 yards and an interception, but the Jags gave up 204 yards on the ground. The defeat puts them at 3-13 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 0-3 SU on the season.
Our Lean: Trojans -9.5
The Jaguars have a couple of big upsets on their resume this season, but the team is just terrible in conference play. The Trojans are top of the Sun Belt conference with a 3-0 record and they won’t take a win here for granted.