USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins NCAAF Free Pick
Play on: UCLA (206) -3 over Southern California @ 8:00 Eastern
In their annual classic the Bruins are running with a solid 7-2 record as they take on their hated cross-town rival #24USC who is 8-2 thus far. #11 UCLA has come on strong the last month because of the steady improvement of QB Hundley. This up-tick is directly related to the change in pass protection necessitated by the early season deficits in the Bruins front that gave up 23 sacks in the first five games. UCLA has allowed just 8 sacks in their most recent five games. Hundley shows with an effective 72% completion rate with 2,547 yards coming into action.UCLA is #20 in total offense (4,892) averaging 34.7 points per game. Defensively, the Bruins are #79 giving up 27.9 points per game.
USC ranks #33 offensively (3,968) with 35.2 points per game. On defense the Trojans are #64 allowing (3,968) just 23.3 points per game. As a note both defensive units face the high flying offenses of the PAC-12 on a current basis, so don’t discount their abilities. One major advantage for UCLA…their off a BYE. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS after a bye week. In the series UCLA was being dominated by the Trojans concluding with a 50-0 win in 2011. Since the Bruins own a 73-42 point differential and back-to-back wins (2-0) after that massacre.
Also, we know that turnovers are key in any game, but especially is these “must win” situations. USC is #3 in the PAC-12 in turnover margin, so UCLA needs to protect the ball with great focus. This encounter is critical for the PAC-12 South and will tell us who gets to Santa Clara and the Conference Championship game.
On the road Southern California shows at 2-9 ATS vs. a winning home team. UCLA is 4-1 ATS at home vs. USC, while the home unit is 8-of-11 ATS in the series. Finally, the hot Bruins come in 5-1 ATS in the month of November…Good Luck.
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