ASA – Sports Handicapper

#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it!

ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points.