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The set-up: Drew Brees is out for the Saints. Teddy Bridgewater is in. The Seahawks are 2-0 after an upset road victory at Pittsburgh last weekend and with a date vs. the co-division leading Rams in Week 4, I believe the home side lays everything on the line this week in order to secure the 3-0 start. The Saints are reeling now, but the offense looked terrible last week before Brees went down anyways. I don’t foresee anything changing in a week and with the major change at the QB position.
The pick: Seattle has been getting consistent play on both sides of the ball and Russell Wilson and company are now licking their chops to get a shot at this suspect New Orleans’ secondary. Note that the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their last four anyways after a loss by ten or more points, while Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a victory by six points or less. Consider the home side in this one.
10* FREE NFL PICK (Cardinals +2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona at basically a pick'em at home. I got on this line before it swapped sides, but I still highly recommend the Cardinals in this spot. I just think after everything the Panthers went through last year in that awful 2nd half collapse, it's going to be hard for them to deal with another Cam Newton injury.
Kyle Allen had a decent game in his only start last year at New Orleans, but that came in Week 17 with the Saints resting their starters. He threw for 228 yards and 2 scores, but that's not saying much given the circumstances.
I was really high on this Arizona team and I've seen enough out of Kyler Murray to believe they made the right call there. Murray is only going to keep getting better with each start. Panthers secondary is definitely the weak link of that defense. I just don't see Allen being able to keep pace with Murray in this one. Give me the Cardinals +2.5!
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Ravens/Chiefs UNDER 53
This is one of the biggest games on the Week 3 slate. It’s two teams that look like contenders in the AFC in the Ravens and Chiefs squaring off. And I think this game will be played close to the vest with points a lot harder to come by than this massive total of 53 would indicate. I certainly believe there’s value with the UNDER for a number of reasons.
For starters, these teams played last December in Kansas City in a game that saw 51 combined points in a 27-24 win by the Chiefs. So they are very familiar with one another as they will now be playing in a rematch early in the season after playing late in the year last season.
The Ravens have a great defense every year and are great again this season. They are giving up just 13.5 points and 274.5 yards per game through two weeks. The Chiefs are clearly improved on defense this season with all of the upgrades they made in the offseason. They are only allowing 18.0 points per game on the season after holding the Raiders to just 10 points last week on the road. And keep in mind the Chiefs’ defense always plays better at home in the friendly, loud confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
The Ravens aren’t as good offensively as they’ve shown thus far. They have played two of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Dolphins and Cardinals. Lamar Jackson looks improved, but now he faces a different animal here in the Chiefs on the road. And I expect the Ravens to deploy a similar strategy to last year’s meeting. They ran the ball 39 times and controlled time of possession to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. They will do the same and try and shorten this game, which definitely favors the UNDER.
UNDERS went 13-3 last week in the NFL. I think all these extra holding penalties being called on the offenses has certainly favored lower scoring games and finally there’s some rules that benefit the defenses. The UNDER is 50-23-1 in the Chiefs’ last 74 home games. Finally, there is a 60% chance of rain Sunday in Kansas City with the forecast calling for scattered thunderstorms. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Lions are not going to be a popular underdog on Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia but I absolutely love the way they’re set up to give the Eagles a serious run if not win outright. Philadelphia suffered a number of key injuries in last Sunday night’s loss in Atlanta. Credit the Eagles for still managing to take the Falcons down to the wire but now I expect a letdown of sorts back at home against the Lions. Detroit quietly picked up a nice win over the Chargers in its home opener last Sunday. Philadelphia is missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, including Malik Jackson and Tim Jernigan and that opens the door for the Lions to run wild in this contest. While the Lions gameplan is called into question a lot of weeks due to their ‘run-first’ philosophy, I don’t mind the way they’ve approached their first two games this season, resulting in an undefeated 1-0-1 mark. Here, the Lions defense catches a major break with the Eagles missing the likes of DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert. That’s not to mention the fact that QB Carson Wentz was forced to leave last Sunday night’s game in Atlanta at one point. Philadelphia’s ground game has not impressed in the early going this season and I suspect it will have a tough time putting this game to bed should the Eagles build a lead. Take Detroit (10*).
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Play - Cincinnati Bengals (Game 467).
Edges - Bengals:
Bills: 12-6-1 ATS Game Three of the season, and 4-1 ATS as dogs versus NFL foes … Bills: 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS off consecutive SUATS wins… We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you good luck as always.
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1* Free NFL Pick on Pittsburgh Steelers +7 -125
I love the value here with the Steelers getting a touchdown at San Francisco. With the injury to Ben Roethlisberger no one is giving this Pittsburgh team any shot of being a serious threat this season. I would hesitate before counting out this team.
Sure they might throw in the towel if they string together a bunch more losses, but not way is a Mike Tomlin coached team going to just lay down. You don't make a trade for a guy like Minkah Fitzpatrick if you aren't planning on trying to win.
Mason Rudolph isn't Ben Roethlisberger, but he didn't look overwhelmed at all in relief of Big Ben against the Seahawks. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 for 112 yards and 2 scores. 49ers defense has some decent numbers, but I don't think either of the offenses they have played are in any good.
I also think we are seeing the 49ers overvalued because they have started out 2-0. This is a team a lot of people were high on, so the public isn't hesitating to jump on board. I just don't think SF is good enough to be laying this kind of a number against a team like the Steelers who are going to lay everything they have on the line to win this game. Take Pittsburgh!
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona Cardinals -2
I like what I’ve seen from the Arizona Cardinals thus far under Kliff Kingsbury. They are 2-0 ATS this season. They tied Detroit in overtime with a nice comeback win. And they hung tough on the road at Baltimore last week in a 6-point loss as 13-point dogs. Kyler Murray is showing a ton of moxy in this offense. The Carolina Panthers are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season. They just keep finding ways to lose close games. And now they probably won’t have Cam Newton, which means backup Kyle Allen will start. Allen started over Murray at Texas A&M back in college, so you know Murray will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Arizona is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Give me the Cardinals.
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