Free NFL Expert Picks & Predictions
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Baltimore Ravens -7.5
I'm not worried at all about a letdown by the Baltimore Ravens after their win over the Chiefs last week. If they were 2-0 this would be a letdown spot, but they are 1-1 after losing to the Raiders in Week 1. They won't be taking the Lions lightly, and they will make easy work of them just as the 49ers and Packers have before them. The 49ers were up 41-15 on the Lions with two minutes left in the 4th quarter before a ferocious rally by Detroit. And the Packers put them away in the second half with a dominant 35-17 victory. It's clear the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL as they are giving up 38 points per game. Jared Goff is being asked to do too much. And Lamar Jackson and company always seem to throttle teams that they are supposed to beat like the Lions. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 30 points or more last game. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. Give me the Ravens.
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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals -7
The Arizona Cardinals have been an offensive juggernaut this season. Few teams in the NFL have as much talent on offense as they do, and it has shown in the early going. The Cardinals rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 445 yards per game. They are also 2nd in scoring offense at 36 points per game and 4th at 7.0 yards per play.
I'm willing to lay the points with the Cardinals this week because they should be able to name their score against this putrid Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars lost 21-37 to the Texans in Week 1 and gave up 449 total yards. Then last week they lost 13-23 at home to the Broncos and gave up 398 more yards. That was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Jaguars got a kickoff return TD late in the 4th quarter. They were also outgained by 209 yards by the Broncos.
Trevor Lawrence has been a massive disappointment. He is completing just 50% of his passes and has already thrown five interceptions in two games. He is also averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt. It's hard to trust him to be able to match the Cardinals score for score, which is what he is going to have to try to do because the Jaguars aren't stopping Kyler Murray and company.
After beating the Titans 38-13 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals failed to cover in their 34-33 win over the Vikings as 4-point home favorites last week, and I think we are getting them at a discount because of it. They should have lost that game, but the Vikings had kicker issues again. But that was a desperate and hungry Vikings team. And while the Jaguars are desperate too, they're just not good enough to do anything about it, which showed last week against the Broncos.
The Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Arizona is 11-5-2 ATS in its last 18 road games overall. Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. This one really is as easy as it looks. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
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Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Bears/Browns UNDER 46
The Key: The Chicago Bears look like an UNDER team again this year. They have scored just 17 PPG through 2 games and are averaging just 264 YPG and 4.1 YPP. Justin Fields was not good against the Bengals last week in replacing an injured Andy Dalton. He completed just 6 of 13 passes for 60 yards with an interception. The Bears are going to be especially a run-heavy team with him at QB now, which will keep the clock moving. The Browns are already a run-heavy offense and that is even more the case now with their injuries at receiver. OBJ has been hobbled with a knee injury, and now Jarvis Landry is going to be out with a knee injury suffered last week against the Texans as well. Baker Mayfield is dealing with a sore shoulder, too. Both teams have been great against the run with the Bears giving up just 71.5 RYPG and 3.3 YPC while the Browns have allowed 77.5 RYPG and 3.0 YPC. The UNDER is 22-9 in Bears last 31 games on grass. Take the UNDER.
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Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This game has shootout potential as the Lions return home licking their wounds following Monday's second half collapse in Green Bay. Detroit could very well end up having the league's worst defense and that was on full display against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday night. Green Bay moved the football up and down the field at will in that game, only easing off the gas after building a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Jeff Okudah, arguably the Lions best defender, was already sidelined and now his backup, Ifeatu Melifonwu, is out due to injury as well. Two keys to their defensive line, Kevin Strong and Trey Flowers are both nursing injuries and questionable to play on Sunday. Even if they can go, they haven't been all that effective anyway as opposing ground games have absolutely torched the Lions through the first two games. While we've yet to see one of the key pieces of the Ravens offense, TE Mark Andrews, really get rolling this season, he should feast here against a Detroit defense that has 130 yards on seven catches to opposing tight ends this season. The real question here is whether the Lions offense can do enough to contribute to get this one up and 'over' the relatively lofty total. I believe they can and will. While Detroit is dealing with injuries on the defensive side of the football, it doesn't hold a candle to what Baltimore has had to endure on the injury front. The Ravens are depleted in the secondary and without much of a pass rush to speak of, the door is open for Lions QB Jared Goff to once again pad his stats in this one. In Monday's analysis of our 'over' play in Green Bay we noted that TE T.J. Hockenson was in line for a big performance and he ultimately delivered. Well, he's well-positioned to go off once again here, noting that Baltimore has allowed 17 catches and 214 receiving yards, not to mention two touchdowns, against opposing tight ends through two games this season. There's little reason to expect Detroit to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football against the Ravens here. Instead, look for Goff to bomb away, likely playing from behind for much of the afternoon. Each of Detroit's first two games have sailed 'over' the total this season and the same goes for Baltimore. Until the oddsmakers make the necessary adjustments, we'll expect more of the same. Take the over.
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