NFL Expert Free Picks & Predictions

For one of my best free picks on Sunday I am looking at the Washington Commanders at the Philadelphia Eagles here on Sunday. I think we are getting a great value here getting more than a field goal with Washington. Over the years these teams no matter how good either one is play tight NFC East style games. I think Washington is under valued due to their poor season last year and the Eagles are over rated as usual and should see some decline this year. Look for a field goal win from the Eagles but it would shock me if we saw an upset here.

Play on the Washington Commanders plus the points rotation #475

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The King of Monday Night Football will redeem himself from yesterday’s debacle. Yesterday was ugly. But as the champion I am, I bounce back today, redeem myself, and get us all paid in this big Monday Night Football winner between the Broncos/Chiefs.

Monday’s FREE WINNER: Denver Broncos.

Game 481.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

If there were no concerns going into this game, I would still take the Denver Broncos. Having said that, everybody is going to be looking at both quarterbacks. Bo Nix is returning from an ankle injury while Patrick Mahomes will be making his first appearance since sustaining a knee injury. Both defenses are pretty darn good. It is true, the Kansas City cornerback McDuffie is no longer wearing their uniform, having left to sport a Rams uniform. This team is also without longtime familiars on offense in Pacheco and Hunt. However, they did pick up last year’s Super Bowl Champion running back, Walker III. For the Broncos, you can expect to see newly acquired, Waddle, wideout extraordinaire. Denver has taken four of the last five meetings straight up covering five of the last six overall matchups in this rivalry going back to the end of October 2023. It’s true, Mahomes did not play in a couple of those games. This is a heck of a game for the NFL to start of their regular season Monday Night Football schedule. I do think it’s going to be a very close contest. Take the Denver Broncos. Thank you.

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Chiefs: over 43½

Kansas City averaged 15 points a game over its final 8 contests last season, and the last meeting with Denver produced a 20-13 Broncos win on Christmas.

Those two numbers are doing all the work holding this total at 43.5.

Both are misleading.

Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 last season, so that entire cold stretch, including the Christmas game, came without him.

He's back Monday with Rashee Rice healthy, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and Kenneth Walker III installed as a three-down back.

The best case against this over is real and worth stating plainly: Denver led the league with 68 sacks last season, and Mahomes will wear a knee brace behind a line starting undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at left tackle with Josh Simmons out.

But pressure cuts both ways on a total.

Sacks and hurried throws create turnovers and short fields, which add possessions and points.

And Mahomes has built a career on beating pressure with quick releases.

The sacks crushed KC's scoring late last year because backup quarterbacks were absorbing them.

Denver's side carries its own weight.

The Broncos averaged 23 points over their final 8 games last season, then added Jaylen Waddle to a receiver room with Courtland Sutton, who is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, plus Evan Engram at tight end.

Kansas City is also down safety Chamarri Conner, pushing Jaden Hicks into a starting role against that group.

Two functional offenses only need 44.

This number is still pricing in a broken one.

I like the Over

Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Monday 9-14-26

Denver +2 1/2

Pure Lock has a TOP MLB play available on Monday. Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! QUALITY over Quantity here. Currently on an impressive 48-29 (62%) run over his last 77 OVERALL picks! $1,000 per game players have CASHED $15,510 since July 27, 2026!

1* Free Pick on Broncos +2½ -112

1 Dimer on Broncos vs Chiefs under 43½ -110

1* Free Play on Broncos/Chiefs under 43½ -110

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Chiefs over 43½

3* on Chiefs