NFL Expert Free Picks & Predictions

UNDER 46.5

In Week 14 on Monday Night Football, we've got Tennessee (4-8, 5-7 ATS) facing off against the Dolphins (9-3, 8-4 ATS) in one of 2x MNF matchups. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL and will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. The initial total (O/U) is set at 47. In their recent outings, the Titans came up short against the Colts, losing 31-28 as 1-point underdogs, while the Dolphins cruised to a 45-15 win over the Commanders, covering as 9-point road favorites. This marks the 40th meeting between these two, with Miami holding a 21-18 edge. Their most recent clash was Week 17 of 2021, Titans dominated 34-3 victory. It wasn't even a contest to be honest. Over their last 10 games, Miami holds a 6-4 record. This game stays UNDER for a few reasons. #1. Running games. Mostert vs. Henry. Derrick Henry currently ranks second in the league for rushing yards this season, with a total of 841 yards. He is narrowly ahead of Raheem Mostert, who holds the third-place position with 828 rushing yards. Commanders averaged 4.9 YPC vs. Fins last week, so you know the Titans are ready to give Henry 25+ touches to keep Tua off the field. Given that MIA can also run the clock don't be surprised to see them use the run to set up the pass. It keeps that clock moving too when we see lots of RB's getting touches. I'm a fan. #2 Tennessee Can't Score! Scored 20+ just once in their L5 games. #3. DEFENSE & Ball control. Believe it or not, Fins have one of the NFL's top defenses since Week 5. #1 in EPA allowed per play. The Fins are a 2-TD FAV in this one. They'll be playing with the lead, go conservative, control the football, run, run, run. Trends, the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Titans L16 games, and 11 of 14 games when playing IN MIAMI. For Miami the total has gone UNDER in 13 of their L20 vs. the Titans, and in 8 of the Fins L9 vs. AFC South teams. Hop on. Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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