Free NFL Expert Picks
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on New England Patriots -5.5
This is a very tough spot for the Oakland Raiders. They will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. They are now in a letdown spot after upsetting the Saints, and they have to travel all the way out East for an early 1:00 EST start time to face the Patriots. It’s a Patriots team that will be hungry after coming up just one yard short against the Seahawks last week. The Raiders are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Patriots are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a loss. The Raiders are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Raiders are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. New England is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 games after allowing more than 30 points last game. The Patriots are 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 home games. Give me the Patriots.
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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5
The Tampa Bay Bucs are only going to continue to get better as the season goes along. Now with two games under their belts, Tom Brady and company should be hitting on all cylinders in Week 3 against the hapless Denver Broncos.
The Bucs have remained one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. They will get Chris Godwin back from a concussion this week to give Brady his full compliment of receivers. And the Bucs should torch a Broncos defense that is banged up and giving up 393.5 yards per game through two games against the Titans and Steelers.
Speaking of banged up, the Broncos also have a plethora of injuries on offense. Jeff Driskel will get the start this week after Drew Lock was knocked out with a shoulder injury last week. The Broncos made Lock their QB of the future, so this is a bigger loss than is being factored into the line. Not to mention, Driskel won’t have his best receiver in Courtland Sutton, who returned from injury last week only to suffer a torn ACL.
Tampa Bay does have a fast, underrated defense that gets overlooked because of all the weapons they have on offense. They held the Saints to just 271 total yards in Week 1 in a game that was much closer than the 23-34 final score would indicate. And last week they forced four Carolina Panthers turnovers to aid their 31-17 victory.
The Buccaneers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight September games. Denver is 8-23-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game. Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.
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Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 9-27-20
Green Bay @ New Orleans (8:20 PM EST)
Play On: New Orleans -3
The Green Bay Packers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Sunday night. Green Bay comes in with a 2-0 SU overall record this year while New Orleans comes in with a 1-1 SU overall record on the season. New Orleans is averaging 250.5 passing yards per game this year. Green Bay is allowing 27.5 points per game overall this year and 34 points per game on the road this season. New Orleans is scoring 29 points per game overall this year and 34 points per game at home this season. New Orleans off a losing game against the Raiders last week. I feel they bounce back here at home. We'll recommend a small play on New Orleans tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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PICK - Arizona Cardinals -5
I will gladly play the Cardinals laying less than a touchdown at home against the Lions. I think the books can sometimes be a bit slow on teams like Arizona, who are making that big transition from being an okay team to a legit Super Bowl contender.
That's right. The Cardinals are for real. Everyone wants to give Russell Wilson the MVP after 2 games, but Kyler Murray is in the conversation. Murray has just 2 TD passes, but is completing 67% of his attempts. However, it's his running that makes him so good. He rushed 13 times for 91 yards and a score against the 49ers and 8 times for 67 yards and 2 scores against the Redskins.
Those are two really good defensive lines that he did that against. Note he played 49ers in Week 1 before they lost Bosa and Thomas. Now he's up against a Lions defense that ranks dead last vs the run, giving up 204 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Detroit gave up 27 to Trubisky and the Bears awful offense and 42 to Rodgers and the Packers.
Arizona would have to play a real bad game here to not hit 30 points. I don't see Stafford and the Lions going score for score for a full 4 quarters. Give me the Cardinals -5!
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Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Buffalo Bills -1
The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Los Angeles Rams. They were just out East last week against the Eagles, traveled back home, and now they have to travel back East to face one of the best teams in the NFL in the Buffalo Bills. It will be an early 10:00 AM body clock games for the Rams. The Bills are the real deal, and Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level. Allen leads a Buffalo offense that is scoring 29 PPG and averaging 464 YPG. I would call it pretty much a wash offensively, but the Bills defenitely have the better defense in this matchup, and they’re at home in a much more favorable situation than the Rams. Take Buffalo.
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ASA FREE PLAY ON Houston +4 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We really like Pittsburgh this year but it’s going to take awhile for their offense to get in synch after QB Roethlisberger missed an entire year. He’s been decent in the first 2 games but still doesn’t look himself at times. While the Steelers are 2-0, they’ve struggled in those games facing 2 teams that have a combined 0-4 record this season – Giants & Broncos. Last week at home vs an undermanned Denver team, the Steelers barely held on to win despite the fact that Bronco starting QB Lock left early in the game and did not return. Here they get a Houston team that has easily played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far losing to the Chiefs & Ravens, the 2 best teams in the NFL according to most power rankings. The Texans are now in desperation mode as going 0-3 to start the season would almost eliminate them from the playoffs historically speaking. This was a playoff team last year led by one of the top QB’s in the NFL, Deshaun Watson. Teams that start the season 0-2 SU are a money making 33-16 ATS in their 3rd game of the year dating back to 2014. During that same span, teams that start 2-0 SU are 21-26 ATS in their 3rd game and both fall in line with this game. Let’s not forget this is a Houston team that was in the playoffs last year fighting for their lives. Pittsburgh is taking a huge step up in competition here and didn’t look all that dominant in their first 2 games. This is a reverse line movement play which we like as not surprisingly over 60% of the wagers are on Pittsburgh but the line has dropped to -4. Pitt is just 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 games as a favorite and we’ll call for a close game here. The points are worth taking.
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Denver is 0-2 and have suffered a lot of injuries to some key players. Last week that included their starting QB in Lock and WR Sutton who was lost for the year. They already have some defensive injuries as well losing Von Miller for the year before the season started. While those are concerns I do like what Driskell did last week keeping them in the ball @ Pitt. Essentially Denver has done nothing wrong in the eyes of the odds makers since they have covered both games.
Tampa quite frankly hasn't proven anything worth noting to be laying such a crazy price on the road here. Last week that was extremely misleading as they won the turnover battle 4-2 but the spread didn't come into play until they housed a 50 yard TD run when the game was over making it seem worse than what it was. Brady hasn't done anything special with the offense barely throwing for over 200 yards in both games. Broncos and the points here are the right side
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Dallas is coming off a miracle win against Atlanta last Sunday as it overcame a 15-point deficit in the final six minutes to take it on a last second field goal. Some will point to that leading to a letdown here, but it should be just the opposite as to Cowboys can build on that with a big win over one of the top teams in the NFL to improve to 2-1. Seattle is 2-0 which is fortunate as it was outgained by the Falcons by 123 total yards in its opener and was a yard away from losing last Sunday night against the Patriots. Offensively, the Seahawks have been outstanding, but the defense is the real problem in this matchup. Big plays will be the difference as Dallas leads the NFL with 41 plays of 10 yards or more through the first two games while Seattle has allowed the most plays in the league of 10 yards or more with 47. Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Here, we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) since 1983. Play (485) Dallas Cowboys
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Play - Minnesota Vikings (Game 470).
Edges - Vikings: 11-0 ATS last eleven games at home off a loss; and 5-1 ATS last six games in this series … Titans: 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS last seven games versus NFC North foes … We recommend a 1* play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.
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474 Cincinnati at Philadelphia
Despite the cover on Thursday night the Bengals did not look impressive. The Browns won the yards per point battle by a whopping 3.0 ypp. The problem was the Browns couldn't get the Bengals off the field. Cincinnati was a perfect 5 for 5 on fourth downs.
Philadelphia has looked bad the first two weeks and now the press is really coming down on Carson Wentz. The Eagles are a much better team than what it has shown, and is getting healthier by the week. Despite the extra days to prepare we simply want no part of the road underdog here.
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Tampa Bay at Denver 4:25 ET
Broncos (+) over Buccaneers- There is something I really don't understand about this game. Here is Denver 0-2 having lost their quarterback, wide receiver, their best defensive player and five other starters only a 5.5-point underdog to Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. The Broncos will have Jeff Driscoll calling the plays and he has never shown to be a star and this may be his chance to impress those of 'us' that believe he can be no more than a journeyman. Denver is 6-1 ATS after a straight-up loss and 4-1 ATS as home dogs. Take the BRONCOS!
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We've won with the 'over' in each of the Falcons first two games this season while also cashing a ticket fading the Bears in their narrow home win over the Giants last Sunday. Here, I'll stick with what works and back the 'over' again as the Falcons return home to host Chicago. While the Bears offense certainly doesn't look all that imposing on paper, it should have a field day against a listless Falcons defense on Sunday. This is another smash spot for WR Allen Robinson against an Atlanta secondary that simply won't be able to cover him with any consistency. The Falcons have done a nice job of stopping the run in the early going but I don't expect the Bears to bang their heads against the wall trying to run it here. Atlanta will be in desperation mode coming off back-to-back losses to open the season, with the most recent coming in truly demoralizing fashion. As usual, the Falcons offense has been on point in the early going and should find continued success against a good, but not great Bears defense here. Playing on the fast track at the Mercedes-Benz Dome obviously helps their cause. Take the over (8*).
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Free NFL Picks
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