Free MLB Picks For Today

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Phillies/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Key: The Phillies have scored 26 runs in their last 4 games. They are capable of covering this total on their own against Patrick Corbin and the Blue Jays. Corbin has been one of the worst starters in the majors for 5-plus years. He is 1-0 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 5 home starts this year. He is 6-11 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 23 lifetime starts against the Phillies. Cristopher Sanchez finally had his scoreless streak snapped in his last start. I could see him having a letdown this game because of it. He faced a hot Toronto lineup that has scored 3 runs or more in 9 consecutive games, and 5 runs or more in 6 of them. The Blue Jays are 8-1 OVER in their last 9 games overall. Take the OVER.

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Jack's Free Pick Monday: Yankees/Guardians UNDER 8

With no Judge or Stanton, the New York Yankees aren't nearly as potent offensively. They have scored 4 runs or fewer in four of their last five games, and the were held to one run in seven innings before getting 5 runs in their final at-bat against the Red Sox yesterday for the lone exception.

The Guardians really profile as an UNDER team with a suspect lineup and a great staff and bullpen. They are scoring 4.1 runs per game and allowing 4.0 runs per game. Both teams have strong bullpens with the Yankees posting a 3.51 ERA and the Guardians a 3.74 ERA this season.

Will Warren is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 12 starts for the Yankees this season, including 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five road starts. Warren held the Guardians to 2 earned runs and 4 base runners in 5 innings of a 3-2 loss in his lone career start against them.

Gavin Williams is 9-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 13 starts for the Guardians this season with 94 K's in 81 2/3 innings. Williams has been dominant at home, going 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six home starts. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

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1* Free Pick on Blue Jays +159

1* Free Sharp Play on Orioles +120

Nats +134

Washington and San Fran meet and we’re on the Nationals. It was a tough travel day for the Giants, who had to play a late game in Chicago and now shift back home with a quick turnaround. The Giants send out Logan Webb, who has been up and down so far this season. He’s just 3-4 and owns a 4.25 ERA. He allowed 7 hits to this Washington team earlier this season as well and gave up 3 runs. Miles Mikolas counters and the veteran threw 4.0 scoreless against the Giants in his previous encounter. This is a nice price on Washington. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the NATIONALS ML. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Monday FREE MLB O/U Play

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1* MLB - Reds/Padres FREE PICK on Padres -130

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Red Sox/Rays OVER 7.5

The Rays and Red Sox are both mashing left-handed pitching this season. We get two left-handed starters tonight with Connelly Early for the Red Sox and Ian Seymour for the Rays. Early has given up 11 home runs this season. Seymour has a 5.23 ERA and 1.36 WHIP giving up 18 earned runs in 31 innings. Mason Englert will get the bulk of the innings for the Rays and he has a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 21 innings this season. The Red Sox and their opponents have gone for at least 8 combined runs in nine of their last 12 games. The Rays are scoring 4.6 runs per game this season. Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Pick on Blue Jays +154

This is a price play, not a pitching play.

I'm not going to pretend Cristopher Sánchez at 7-2 with a 1.46 ERA isn't a problem.

He is.

He's the best pitcher on the mound in this series and probably in any series this week.

But I'm not laying -170 on a Phillies team I'd lay -130 on, and that gap is where the bet lives.

Patrick Corbin is the obvious soft spot for Toronto, and the underlying numbers say he should be worse than his 3.98 ERA.

His 5.27 xERA and .466 xSLG against tell you the contact has been loud.

Fine.

But Corbin has also turned in two of his last three starts allowing just 1 earned run, including 6 innings against Pittsburgh.

He doesn't need to win the matchup.

He needs to keep it within 2 or 3 runs into the 6th.

The market is treating Toronto like a bottom-feeder because they're 32-34 overall.

At Rogers Centre they're 19-14.

That's a real split and the +154 doesn't price it in.

Yes, the injury list is ugly with Kirk and Santander on the 60-day, and yes, Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in the last 8 meetings.

I'm aware.

The Monday 0-5 trend is noise.

What matters is the implied win probability at +154 sits around 39%, and a healthy home team with a real ballpark advantage clears that number even against a top-5 starter.

Give me the points and the home dog math.

I like the Blue Jays

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Monday’s FREE WINNER: Seattle Mariners.

Game 905.

3:35 PM PST/6:35 PM EST.

As of posting this release, the unofficial starter for the Baltimore Orioles will be Chris Bassitt. This is not yet confirmed (check status). But it looks to be like it will be him. Very honestly, even if he does not start, I still like the visiting team against any starter the home team sends to the bump. The Orioles are a big disappointment this season, sitting in fourth place in the American League East, at 31-35. Granted they are a little bit better at home than they are on the road. However, this team is struggling behind a very bad pitching staff. They rank 24th, with a team ERA of 4.58. Just over the last 10 outings, in which they split out with five wins and five losses, their pitching staff has yielded a whopping 45 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mariners enter this matchup sitting atop the American League West at 34-32. With a combination of a surging lineup and the fifth-ranked pitching staff in baseball, this team is starting to find their legs. They are sending Emerson Hancock to the hill today. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.8 0 ERA on the campaign, and has yielded three runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts in 2026. Yes, over the last few years, Baltimore has had their way with Seattle. But let’s be honest, this is not the same Orioles team that we have seen in recent seasons. I feel the Mariners will come in here strong, with no matter what, a more reliable starter on the mound. Take Seattle. Thank you.

Monday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Phillies/Blue Jays UNDER 7.5

Hey folks, as we gear up for this Monday night showdown between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees at Progressive Field, I'm feeling that classic pitchers' duel vibe all over again. These two clubs have been trading blows in recent series, but with Gavin Williams (9-3, 3.20 ERA) toeing the rubber for the home side against Will Warren (7-1, 3.22 ERA), the smart money is leaning toward the Guardians' moneyline around that -115 to -130 neighborhood or the Under on 7.5-8 total. It's not flashy, but the numbers and trends back it up in a way that makes the math sing.

Let's break it down with some real-deal stats that separate the casual bettors from the ones who actually crunch the data. Williams has been a revelation this year, posting a sparkling 1.08 WHIP over 81.2 innings while striking out 94 and walking just 25. That's a K/BB ratio north of 3.76, which mathematically crushes most matchups, think about it as limiting free passes while generating swings-and-misses at a rate that turns lineups into strikeout machines. Warren's no slouch either at 1.20 WHIP with 70 Ks in 64.1 frames, but his road splits tell a slightly different story, and Progressive Field has a way of taming even the hottest bats.

Head-to-head history adds serious weight here. The total has dipped under in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these squads, and that's not just noise, it's a pattern rooted in strong starting pitching and solid defenses. Factor in the Yankees' recent under tendencies (hitting the under in a hefty chunk of their June and Monday games) and the Guardians' home-field edge, where their infield defense ranks among the league's best, and you're looking at a setup where runs could be at a premium.

A quick nod to some advanced sabermetrics that sharpen this picture without overcomplicating things: We're talking FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which strips away defense and luck with a formula roughly FIP = ((13×HR) + (3×(BB + HBP)) – (2×K)) / IP + ~3.2 constant. Both starters sit in that strong 3.20-ish ERA zone with solid underlying FIP numbers, suggesting their dominance isn't just smoke and mirrors. Layer in BABIP ((Hits – HR) / (AB – HR – K + SF)), which hovers league-wide around .290-.300, deviations here often signal regression that favors unders. Williams' low WHIP and high K-rate point to suppressed offense, while the Guardians' elite defensive metrics (think Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved) boost that pitching value even more. It's the kind of math that makes you chuckle at how often these "bomber vs. grinder" narratives get humbled when the ball stays in the yard.

On the Statcast side, exit velocity (the speed of the ball off the bat in mph) is pure gold for spotting true hard contact. Hard-hit balls at 95 mph or higher produce batting averages north of .500 and massive slugging, while barrels (that sweet spot of high EV + ideal launch angle) are what power Yankees lineups. Both Williams and Warren have done an excellent job limiting opponent exit velocities this season, keeping those loud 100+ mph rockets to a minimum, exactly why the data leans toward fewer runs in this spot.

For the math geniuses in the crowd (and yeah, I love geeking out on this stuff), consider the expected run environment. If we approximate a combined starter ERA around 3.21 and plug in typical MLB regression factors, like BABIP stabilization and bullpen leverage, the implied total hovers closer to 7 or below in a vacuum. Guardians' home games this season have trended toward these tighter affairs, especially against AL East visitors who sometimes struggle adjusting to the lake-effect elements. The Yankees boast a strong overall record (38-26) and road prowess, but Cleveland's recent series success against them (taking 2 of 3 earlier) shows they match up well when the arms are this sharp.

Don't get me wrong, the Yankees can absolutely mash, sitting high in team OPS and slugging categories. But betting against two aces locked in like this feels like fighting the percentages. It's the kind of spot where you chuckle at the "bombers vs. grinders" narrative because, more often than not, the ball stays in the yard and the bullpens hold serve. Guardians at home with Williams? That's a spot I've come to respect the hard way through these trends.

My lean: Guardians ML for that home-cooking value, or the Under for the safer, data-backed play. Shop around for the best number, as always. These nights are why we love baseball: two good pitchers, a packed park, and trends that reward the patient observer. Let's see if Cleveland can keep the scoreboard quiet and send the Yanks packing.

Phillies vs Blue Jays MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Philadelphia Phillies are on a 5–1 run and have covered the run line in each of their last three wins. The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off back-to-back home wins over Baltimore, but they closed both games as favorites and are only 2–4 as home underdogs. Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (7–2, 1.46 ERA) has been electric, and Sánchez is 3–0 with a 2.00 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. I like the Phillies to win big over a Blue Jays team handing the ball to Patrick Corbin (2–2, 3.98 ERA), who is 6–11 with a 4.83 ERA in 23 starts against the Phillies.

The Bet: PHILLIES -1½ (3%).

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Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the over in this matchup. The Orioles have been swinging the bats well, scoring 8, 13, 4 and 4 runs over their last four games, yet they still dropped their last two contests by identical 6–4 scores in Toronto. We could see a similar script tonight: plenty of offensive production, but not enough pitching to keep the total in check with Chris Bassitt (4–4, 5.27 ERA) showing a massive drop-off from his peak seasons and carrying an ERA north of 5.50 so far in 2026.

This is a FREE PLAY on the OVER!

[1%] Free Play on Nationals +153

3* on Giants

PSP Data Driven 1* Over.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Over is 5-2 in Milwaukee's last 7 games. The Over is 7-3 in Athletics' last 10 games.