Mike Lundin Sports Handicapper: Picks, Packages & Records

Brewers vs Phillies MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back the Milwaukee Brewers to bounce back from a 6-4 loss in the series opener. They're a perfect 5-0 coming off a loss and handing the ball to right-hander Logan Henderson (10-3, 2.51 ERA), who has been lights out all season.

Phillies righty Aaron Nola (7-10, 4.49 ERA) has steadied what can only be described as a disastrous campaign by his standards. However, facing a Milwaukee team that has scored nine runs in his last two starts against them will most likely present another tough test. Nola's 1.34 WHIP and elevated opponent batting average (.261) leave Philadelphia exposed in the early to middle innings, where Milwaukee's situational hitting thrives.

The Bet: Brewers (3%).

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4% MLB TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): Cleveland southpaw Foster Griffin (15-5, 3.67 ERA) takes the mound for the Guardians as they look to build on their six-game winning streak and solidify their position atop the AL Central. Griffin has been a consistent workhorse all season, utilizing his command to suppress hard contact and suppress power hitters in high-leverage spots.

Boston counters with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.82 ERA), and while he brings elite traditional numbers into this start, Boston has dropped eight of its past 12 contests overall, and the bullpen has shown vulnerability in late-inning spots.

The Guardians have been exceptional in tight games down the stretch, fueled by a deep bullpen and an opportunistic lineup that consistently pushes runs across late. Catching plus-money value on a division leader riding a hot six-game winning streak makes Cleveland a strong moneyline proposition.

The Bet: Guardians ML (4%).

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The Angle(s): The Washington Nationals turn to left-hander Richard Lovelady (3-4, 3.86 ERA) in what serves as an opener or short-start spot following the shutdown of their ace Cade Cavalli. Lovelady has been steady out of the Washington staff across 36 appearances and five starts this season, going 3-1 against the runline as a starter in underdog spots.

The Detroit Tigers turn to veteran lefty Framber Valdez (10-11, 4.06 ERA). While Valdez carries big-game credentials, his 2026 campaign has featured pronounced inconsistency, marked by a career-low K/9 mark and elevated walk metrics (4 walks allowed in 5 innings in a loss against the White Sox in his previous outing).

The Nationals' lineup remains a potent top-three unit in baseball scoring with 5.1 runs per game, providing ample run support to keep games manageable.

The Bet: Nationals +1½ (3%).