Mike Lundin – Sports Handicapper

ASTROS @ ANGELS THURSDAY NIGHT NO BRAINER

The Houston Astros scored just two runs despite recording 13 hits in yesterday's 7-2 defeat. Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 after allowing two runs or fewer in their previous game, and I expect both teams to score fast and easy here in the finale of this four-game series Thursday night. 

Matt Harvey (3-4, 6.88 ERA) will toe the slab for the Halos. He has posted a 16.20 ERA in two career starts versus the Astros and gave up five runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 10-4 loss to them on May 5. 

The Astros turn to Wade Miley (7-4, 3.32 ERA) who owns impressive career numbers against the Angels, but he could be in big trouble here as Mike Trout expects to return to the lineup after missing the first three games of this series due to a right calf strain. "I feel good. Just being cautious," Trout said Wednesday. "I should be fine to play (Thursday)."

Miley was tagged with five runs (three earned) in 6 2/3 innings against Texas last time out. 

Over is 17-5-4 in Angels last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Over is 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings.

8* play on OVER. 

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This series is all tied at 1-1 following a come-from-behind win for the New York Yankees on Tuesday. I like the Bronx Bombers to get the better of their American League East rival Tampa Bay Rays again here in the first game of a double-header on Thursday.

Domingo German (11-2, 3.40 ERA) will toe the slab for the Yankees. They've won nine of his last 11 starts and German is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two starts since returning from a hip injury.

The Rays hand are 1-5 in right-hander Yonny Chirinos' (8-4, 3.11 ERA) last six starts and the Yankees are 39-13 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter 

The Rays are 2-6 in the Bronx this year and I expect the home team to prove well worth the money tonight. 

We have a free pick on the Yankees to win this game straight up, but I also like this contest to fly over the total. Note that the over/under is 22-13-2 in Yankees' day games in 2019.

8* play on OVER. 

SUPER EARLY TOP RATED 10* PADRES @ MARLINS TOTAL

The over/under is 8-21 in Miami Marlins' day games this season, and I think we'll see a low-scoring affair when they visit the San Diego Padres Thursday afternoon.  

The Padres hand the ball to Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 6.30 ERA) who has made just two major league appearances since the end of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. He has given up seven runs through 10 innings on the season, but also fanned 14. This could be a turning point against a Marlins team that averages just 3.65 runs per game. 

"Lamet's stuff is there," Padres manager Andy Green claims. "The control hasn't been. We know it will be. His last bullpen (session) was a step in the right direction. Commanding the fastball is something he has been working on since his surgery. There are days when it has been really good and days when he's fought with it a little bit."

The Marlins counter with Caleb Smith (5-4, 3.46 ERA) who has posted a 2.04 ERA through six starts home at Marlins Park here in 2019. 

Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 overall. Under is 7-3-1 in Marlins last 11 overall.

10* play on UNDER. 

TOP RATED 10* MLB MONEYLINE PLAY OF THE DAY

The St. Louis Cardinals are 4-2 coming out of the All-Star break following a 6-5 triumph over the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday. Tonight they'll be on the road at Cincinnati, and I like the Reds to get the better of their NL Central rival. 

Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.99 ERA) will toe the slab for the Reds. He was roughed up at Colorado last time out, but he's far from the only pitcher to have struggled at Coors this season and it happened after sitting through a rain delay of over three hours. The preparations should be better for this contest, and we can note that he limited the Cards to one run through 5 1/3 innings of a 5-2 Reds win back in April.

The Cardinals counter with Dakota Hudson (8-4, 3.48 ERA) who is having a great year, but his K/BB ratio of 73/45 does note bode well. Don't be surprised if we see some regression for the 24-year-old righty in the second half of the season, and we can note that his ERA on the road is more than a full run higher than at home in St. Louis. 

The Reds are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record while the Cardinals are 6-13 in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

10* play on Cincinnati Reds.