Mike Lundin – Sports Handicapper

TEXANS @ COLTS TOTAL

Houston is averaging only 17.8 points per game (29th) and 282.6 yards of total offense (29th). They have put up a grand total of 31 points through their last three games. Indianapolis is coming into the game as a double-digit favorite. I think they'll run away with the game early and then keep the Texans at a distance while eating a lot of clock. 

8* play on UNDER. 

CARDINALS @ BROWNS TOTAL

The Cardinals are coming off a 17-10 win against San Francisco. I expect to see another low-scoring affair involving Arizona as they visit Cleveland in Week 6. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is dealing with a shoulder issue while the Browns will as usual focus on running the ball, which will keep the clock moving. Under is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 road games. Under is 7-3 in Browns last 10 games as a favorite.

8* play on UNDER. 

Chiefs vs Football Team Free Pick October 17, 2021

The Chiefs have burned their against the spread backers on the regular for quite some time (3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall), but now they've also dropped three of their last four straight up. They have the worst scoring defense in the NFL and are coming into the week 31st in total defense allowing 437 yards per game. Washington is also going through a rough patch, but I expect to see a reaction after taking a 33-22 home loss to New Orleans last week. Football Team are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.

Free pick on Washington. 

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TOP-RATED 10* COWBOYS @ PATRIOTS GAME OF THE WEEK (SIDE)

The Cowboys are off to a hot start, covering the spread in each of their five games and winning four straight up since losing to the reigning Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay in their season opener. I think they're overvalued here though, facing a Patriots team that lost by only two points to the Bucs here at Gillette Stadium a couple of weeks ago. Bill Belichick is money as an underdog (Pats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog) while the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. We can also note that the Cowboys are on the road following three straight road games, which historically is a tough spot. 

10* play on New England Patriots. 

CHARGERS @ RAVENS SIDE

The Chargers have had an impressive start to the season, but I think they're about to come down to earth when visiting Baltimore on Sunday as they'll face a Baltimore team they match up pretty bad with. The Ravens boast one of the best rushing offenses in the league, and the Chargers are allowing an NFL-worst 157.6 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. 

Sure, Justin Herbert and the rest of L.A.'s potent offense is clicking, but I think they're about to run out of steam after facing Dallas, KC, Vegas and Cleveland.

8* play on Baltimore Ravens. 

BENGALS @ LIONS SIDE

The Lions are still looking for their first win of the season, but they are 3-2 ATS and I like their chances of keeping this close. Two of their last three games have been decided by long-distance, game-ending field goals, and the Bengals do not have the offensive firepower to get separation. Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

8* play on Detroit Lions. 

PACKERS @ BEARS TOTAL

The Bears are 4-1 to the under on the season, much because of an offense that averages only 240 yards of total offense (32nd) and 16.8 points per game (30th). On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have been a lot better and they held Vegas to nine points last week. The Packers have seen each of their last two games stay under the total and under is 6-2 in Packers last 8 games as a road favorite.

8* play on UNDER. 

NFL MAJOR WAGER ALERT - MIKE'S 10* GAME OF THE WEEK (TOTAL)

The Vikings have put a total of only 26 points on the board through their last two games. Last week, they scored only 19 points against a Detroit team who up until then had one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL. Now they'll face a Carolina team that ranks near the top of the league for most defensive metrics. Carolina has seen only one of its first five games of the season go over the total, and it has the third-best scoring defense allowing only 17.4 points per game. 

Both teams hope to get their star running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook) back from injuries, but I think we'll see few visits to the end zone regardless. 

Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games as a favorite.

10* play on UNDER.