Mike Lundin Sports Handicapper: Picks, Packages & Records

Blues v Senators NHL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Ottawa Senators are on the second night of a back-to-back, and I think the market is giving the tired-legs angle too much weight. Ottawa just went into New Jersey and handled the Devils 4-1, and coming back to the Canadian Tire Centre should more than make up for the short turnaround.

The St. Louis Blues have dropped three straight, most recently a 3-2 overtime loss to San Jose, and even that record is flattering. St. Louis has scored above its expected baseline, which tells me the offense has been running on finishing luck that won’t last. When the shooting regresses, a team that’s already allowing 3+ goals per game doesn’t have much to fall back on. I’ll back the better, more structured club at home, even on no rest.

The Bet: Senators ML (3%).

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MAGIC MIKE'S NHL BOOKIE BLA$TER

The Angle(s): The Colorado Avalanche come into Dallas off an ugly 6-3 loss to Toronto, and I think the market is overreacting to one bad night. Before that, Colorado had scored 23 goals in its first four games, including eight against Los Angeles and seven in Calgary. The Avalanche still lead the NHL at 5.20 goals per game, and a lineup averaging over 32 shots a night tends to bounce back quickly after a loss.

The Dallas Stars have been stingy in their own end, but they simply aren’t scoring. Dallas ranks 26th at 2.20 goals per game, and its power play has converted just 7.7% of its chances. The Stars have scored one goal or fewer in three of their five games, and they’re coming off a 2-1 shootout loss to Pittsburgh.

The Bet: Avalanche ML (3%).

4% Knights v Predators NHL TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): The Vegas Golden Knights limp into Music City on the second night of a back-to-back after a 4-2 loss in Minnesota. I think the market is overreacting to the tired legs and the loss. Before last night, Vegas had won four straight, including a road sweep through Vancouver and Seattle and a rally from three goals down to beat Toronto. This lineup has been a shot machine, ranking near the top of the NHL in shots per game. One loss on the road doesn’t change who this team is, and getting a contender at this kind of price is the value spot.

The Nashville Predators have collected points, but the numbers underneath are a red flag. Nashville has been outshot in every game this season, ranks 30th in shots per game, and allows 30 shots a night. Teams that live in their own zone like that eventually stop getting bailed out, and Vegas is 5-1 when it outshoots its opponent. Even on short rest, the Golden Knights should control play.

The Bet: Golden Knights ML (4%).

Guardians v Rays MLB BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): The Cleveland Guardians have won four straight elimination-style games, and they look like the tougher team in this series. They grabbed Game 1 with seven unanswered runs in the final four innings. Tampa Bay native Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA) gets the ball in front of the crowd he grew up in, and he has owned the Tampa Bay Rays. Messick has made three career starts against Tampa Bay and allowed just one run in each. This season he gave up two earned runs over 13 1/3 innings against them with 15 strikeouts and only two walks. The Rays won five of six regular-season meetings, and the market is still pricing them off that record and their 98 wins. It is ignoring the fact that Messick’s lone run allowed in July came in a 1-0 loss.

The Rays counter with Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA), whose September run looks better than it really was, and I think the bill is coming due. Cleveland roughed up a Rays bullpen that had been nearly flawless, and Peralta has averaged under five innings in October. That should put Tampa Bay’s relievers back in the spotlight early.

The Bet: Guardians (3%).